schema string | slug string | title string | date timestamp[s] | canonical_url string | claim string | takeaway string | sources list | data dict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
modevc.chart.v1 | open-source-vs-closed-ai-models-gap | Open-Source vs. Closed AI Models: How Big Is the Gap? | 2026-10-06T00:00:00 | https://modevc.com/charts/open-source-vs-closed-ai-models-gap/ | The best open model trails the best closed model by 42 Arena points. In a blind vote it would still win 44% of the time, up from 31% at the widest gap. | When the free model wins 44% of the time, the model is not the moat. | [
{
"name": "Arena leaderboard dataset (lmarena-ai, CC BY 4.0)",
"url": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset"
},
{
"name": "Mistral Large 4 announcement",
"url": "https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large-4/"
},
{
"name": "Lab posts + launch trackers (llmgateway, thu... | {
"type": "line",
"yFmt": "pts",
"xFmt": "year",
"zero": true,
"zeroLabel": "open model leads below this line",
"matchMs": 864000000,
"series": [
{
"name": "Gap",
"short": "Gap",
"pts": [
{
"t": 1704758400000,
"y": 67.01538564910675,
"note": "mix... |
Open-Source vs. Closed AI Models: How Big Is the Gap?
Empirical Claim: The best open model trails the best closed model by 42 Arena points. In a blind vote it would still win 44% of the time, up from 31% at the widest gap.
Best proprietary rating minus best openly licensed rating on the Arena text board (overall), Arena points, Jan 2024 – 2 Oct 2026. Below 0 = an open model leads.
Canonical Interactive Visualization & Primary Source
- Interactive D3 Chart & Full Analysis: https://modevc.com/charts/open-source-vs-closed-ai-models-gap/
- Mode VC Empirical AI Chart Index (38 Charts): https://modevc.com/charts/
- Mode VC Institutional Investor Atlas (3,650+ VC Firms): https://modevc.com/investors/
- Mode VC Research Homepage: https://modevc.com
- Model Context Protocol (MCP) Endpoint:
https://modevc.com/api/mcp/chart-open-source-vs-closed-ai-models-gap
Key Analytical Takeaway
When the free model wins 44% of the time, the model is not the moat.
Citation & Attribution
Published by Mode VC under CC-BY-4.0. When referencing this dataset, cite Open-Source vs. Closed AI Models: How Big Is the Gap? (https://modevc.com/charts/open-source-vs-closed-ai-models-gap/).
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