Daily Papers

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, large language model (LLM)- based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit experience accumulation and continual evolution. In this work, we propose MemCast, a learning-to-memory framework that reformulates TSF as an experience-conditioned reasoning task. Specifically, we learn experience from the training set and organize it into a hierarchical memory. This is achieved by summarizing prediction results into historical patterns, distilling inference trajectories into reasoning wisdom, and inducing extracted temporal features into general laws. Furthermore, during inference, we leverage historical patterns to guide the reasoning process and utilize reasoning wisdom to select better trajectories, while general laws serve as criteria for reflective iteration. Additionally, to enable continual evolution, we design a dynamic confidence adaptation strategy that updates the confidence of individual entries without leaking the test set distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that MemCast consistently outperforms previous methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS.

Traffic forecasting represents a crucial problem within intelligent transportation systems. In recent research, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising method, but their intrinsic design, tailored primarily for sequential token processing, introduces notable challenges in effectively capturing spatial dependencies. Specifically, the inherent limitations of LLMs in modeling spatial relationships and their architectural incompatibility with graph-structured spatial data remain largely unaddressed. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ST-LINK, a novel framework that enhances the capability of Large Language Models to capture spatio-temporal dependencies. Its key components are Spatially-Enhanced Attention (SE-Attention) and the Memory Retrieval Feed-Forward Network (MRFFN). SE-Attention extends rotary position embeddings to integrate spatial correlations as direct rotational transformations within the attention mechanism. This approach maximizes spatial learning while preserving the LLM's inherent sequential processing structure. Meanwhile, MRFFN dynamically retrieves and utilizes key historical patterns to capture complex temporal dependencies and improve the stability of long-term forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that ST-LINK surpasses conventional deep learning and LLM approaches, and effectively captures both regular traffic patterns and abrupt changes.

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called `Scattering Spectra'. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S\&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

The endeavor of stock trend forecasting is principally focused on predicting the future trajectory of the stock market, utilizing either manual or technical methodologies to optimize profitability. Recent advancements in machine learning technologies have showcased their efficacy in discerning authentic profit signals within the realm of stock trend forecasting, predominantly employing temporal data derived from historical stock price patterns. Nevertheless, the inherently volatile and dynamic characteristics of the stock market render the learning and capture of multi-scale temporal dependencies and stable trading opportunities a formidable challenge. This predicament is primarily attributed to the difficulty in distinguishing real profit signal patterns amidst a plethora of mixed, noisy data. In response to these complexities, we propose a Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing (MTMD) model. This innovative approach encompasses the creation of a learnable embedding coupled with external attention, serving as a memory module through self-similarity. It aims to mitigate noise interference and bolster temporal consistency within the model. The MTMD model adeptly amalgamates comprehensive local data at each timestamp while concurrently focusing on salient historical patterns on a global scale. Furthermore, the incorporation of a graph network, tailored to assimilate global and local information, facilitates the adaptive fusion of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Rigorous ablation studies and experimental evaluations affirm that the MTMD model surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art methodologies by a substantial margin in benchmark datasets. The source code can be found at https://github.com/MingjieWang0606/MDMT-Public.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose ST-SSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL.

Agentic frameworks powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) can be useful tools in scientific workflows by enabling human-AI co-creation. A key challenge is recommending the next steps during workflow creation without relying solely on LLMs, which risk hallucination and require fine-tuning with scarce proprietary data. We propose an episodic memory architecture that stores and retrieves past workflows to guide agents in suggesting plausible next tasks. By matching current workflows with historical sequences, agents can recommend steps based on prior patterns.

Modern natural language models such as the GPT-2/GPT-3 contain tremendous amounts of information about human belief in a consistently testable form. If these models could be shown to accurately reflect the underlying beliefs of the human beings that produced the data used to train these models, then such models become a powerful sociological tool in ways that are distinct from traditional methods, such as interviews and surveys. In this study, We train a version of the GPT-2 on a corpora of historical chess games, and then "launch" clusters of synthetic agents into the model, using text strings to create context and orientation. We compare the trajectories contained in the text generated by the agents/model and compare that to the known ground truth of the chess board, move legality, and historical patterns of play. We find that the percentages of moves by piece using the model are substantially similar from human patterns. We further find that the model creates an accurate latent representation of the chessboard, and that it is possible to plot trajectories of legal moves across the board using this knowledge.

Large language model (LLM)-based coding agents achieve impressive results on controlled benchmarks yet routinely produce pull requests that real maintainers reject. The root cause is not functional incorrectness but a lack of organicity: generated code ignores project-specific conventions, duplicates functionality already provided by internal APIs, and violates implicit architectural constraints accumulated over years of development. Simply exposing an agent to the latest repository snapshot is not enough: the snapshot reveals the final state of the codebase, but not the repository-specific change patterns by which that state was reached. We introduce Learning to Commit, a framework that closes this gap through Online Repository Memory. Given a repository with a strict chronological split, the agent performs supervised contrastive reflection on earlier commits: it blindly attempts to resolve each historical issue, compares its prediction against the oracle diff, and distils the gap into a continuously growing set of skills-reusable patterns capturing coding style, internal API usage, and architectural invariants. When a new PR description arrives, the agent conditions its generation on these accumulated skills, producing changes grounded in the project's own evolution rather than generic pretraining priors. Evaluation is conducted on genuinely future, merged pull requests that could not have been seen during the skill-building phase, and spans multiple dimensions including functional correctness, code-style consistency, internal API reuse rate, and modified-region plausibility. Experiments on an expert-maintained repository with rich commit history show that Online Repository Memory effectively improves organicity scores on held-out future tasks.

Code editing, including modifying, refactoring, and maintaining existing code, is the most frequent task in software development and has garnered significant attention from AI-powered tools. However, existing solutions that translate explicit natural language instructions into code edits face critical limitations, such as heavy reliance on human instruction input and high latency, which hinder their effective integration into a developer's workflow. We observe that developers' habitual behaviors and coding objectives are often reflected in their historical editing patterns, making this data key to addressing existing limitations. To leverage these insights, we propose NES (Next Edit Suggestion), an LLM-driven code editing framework that delivers an instruction-free and low-latency experience. Built on a dual-model architecture and trained with our high-quality SFT and DAPO datasets, NES enhances productivity by understanding developer intent while optimizing inference to minimize latency. NES is a scalable, industry-ready solution with a continuous Tab key interaction workflow, seamlessly adopted by a FinTech company with over 20,000 developers. Evaluations on real-world datasets show NES achieves 75.6% and 81.6% accuracy in two tasks of predicting next edit locations, alongside 91.36% ES and 27.7% EMR for intent-aligned edits, outperforming SOTA models. Our open-sourced SFT and DAPO datasets have been demonstrated to enhance the performance of open-source CodeLLMs. The demonstration of NES is available at https://youtu.be/yGoyYOe6fbY.

Post-disaster aid allocation in developing nations often suffers from systematic biases that disadvantage vulnerable regions, perpetuating historical inequities. This paper presents a fairness-aware artificial intelligence framework for prioritizing post-flood aid distribution in Bangladesh, a country highly susceptible to recurring flood disasters. Using real data from the 2022 Bangladesh floods that affected 7.2 million people and caused 405.5 million US dollars in damages, we develop an adversarial debiasing model that predicts flood vulnerability while actively removing biases against marginalized districts and rural areas. Our approach adapts fairness-aware representation learning techniques from healthcare AI to disaster management, employing a gradient reversal layer that forces the model to learn bias-invariant representations. Experimental results on 87 upazilas across 11 districts demonstrate that our framework reduces statistical parity difference by 41.6 percent, decreases regional fairness gaps by 43.2 percent, and maintains strong predictive accuracy (R-squared=0.784 vs baseline 0.811). The model generates actionable priority rankings ensuring aid reaches the most vulnerable populations based on genuine need rather than historical allocation patterns. This work demonstrates how algorithmic fairness techniques can be effectively applied to humanitarian contexts, providing decision-makers with tools to implement more equitable disaster recovery strategies.

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity - particularly during periods of rapid intensification and rapid weakening - remains a challenge for operational meteorology, with high-stakes implications for disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience. Recent advances in machine learning have yielded notable progress in TC prediction; however, most existing systems provide forecasts that degrade rapidly in extreme regimes and lack long-range consistency. Here we introduce TIFNet, a transformer-based forecasting model that generates non-iterative, 5-day intensity trajectories by integrating high-resolution global forecasts with a historical-evolution fusion mechanism. Trained on reanalysis data and fine-tuned with operational data, TIFNet consistently outperforms operational numerical models across all forecast horizons, delivering robust improvements across weak, strong, and super typhoon categories. In rapid intensity change regimes - long regarded as the most difficult to forecast - TIFNet reduces forecast error by 29-43% relative to current operational baselines. These results represent a substantial advance in artificial-intelligence-based TC intensity forecasting, especially under extreme conditions where traditional models consistently underperform.

Recent advances in Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have been propelled by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which grants the models access to vast external knowledge bases. Despite RAG's success in improving agent performance, agent-level cache management, particularly constructing, maintaining, and updating a compact, relevant corpus dynamically tailored to each agent's need, remains underexplored. Therefore, we introduce ARC (Agent RAG Cache Mechanism), a novel, annotation-free caching framework that dynamically manages small, high-value corpora for each agent. By synthesizing historical query distribution patterns with the intrinsic geometry of cached items in the embedding space, ARC automatically maintains a high-relevance cache. With comprehensive experiments on three retrieval datasets, our experimental results demonstrate that ARC reduces storage requirements to 0.015% of the original corpus while offering up to 79.8% has-answer rate and reducing average retrieval latency by 80%. Our results demonstrate that ARC can drastically enhance efficiency and effectiveness in RAG-powered LLM agents.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) increasingly solve complex tasks by orchestrating agents and tools selected from rapidly growing marketplaces. As these marketplaces expand, many candidates become functionally overlapping, making selection not just a retrieval problem: beyond filtering relevant agents, an orchestrator must choose options that are reliable, compatible with the current execution context, and able to cooperate with other selected agents. Existing recommender systems -- largely built for item-level ranking from flat user-item logs -- do not directly address the structured, sequential, and interaction-dependent nature of agent orchestration. We address this gap by formulating agent recommendation in MAS as a constrained decision problem and introducing a generic constrained recommendation framework that first uses retrieval to build a compact candidate set conditioned on the current subtask and context, and then performs utility optimization within this feasible set using a learned scorer that accounts for relevance, reliability, and interaction effects. We ground both the formulation and learning signals in historical calling trees, which capture the execution structure of MAS (parent-child calls, branching dependencies, and local cooperation patterns) beyond what flat logs provide. The framework supports two complementary settings: agent-level recommendation (select the next agent/tool) and system-level recommendation (select a small, connected agent team/subgraph for coordinated execution). To enable systematic evaluation, we construct a unified calling-tree benchmark by normalizing invocation logs from eight heterogeneous multi-agent corpora into a shared structured representation.

Optical Character Recognition (OCR) of eighteenth-century printed texts remains challenging due to degraded print quality, archaic glyphs, and non-standardized orthography. Although transformer-based OCR systems and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) achieve strong aggregate accuracy, metrics such as Character Error Rate (CER) and Word Error Rate (WER) provide limited insight into their reliability for scholarly use. We compare a dedicated OCR transformer (TrOCR) and a general-purpose Vision-Language Model (Qwen) on line-level historical English texts using length-weighted accuracy metrics and hypothesis driven error analysis. While Qwen achieves lower CER/WER and greater robustness to degraded input, it exhibits selective linguistic regularization and orthographic normalization that may silently alter historically meaningful forms. TrOCR preserves orthographic fidelity more consistently but is more prone to cascading error propagation. Our findings show that architectural inductive biases shape OCR error structure in systematic ways. Models with similar aggregate accuracy can differ substantially in error locality, detectability, and downstream scholarly risk, underscoring the need for architecture-aware evaluation in historical digitization workflows.

Recommender systems are among the most impactful applications of artificial intelligence, serving as critical infrastructure connecting users, merchants, and platforms. However, most current industrial systems remain heavily reliant on historical co-occurrence patterns and log-fitting objectives, i.e., optimizing for past user interactions without explicitly modeling user intent. This log-fitting approach often leads to overfitting to narrow historical preferences, failing to capture users' evolving and latent interests. As a result, it reinforces filter bubbles and long-tail phenomena, ultimately harming user experience and threatening the sustainability of the whole recommendation ecosystem. To address these challenges, we rethink the overall design paradigm of recommender systems and propose RecGPT, a next-generation framework that places user intent at the center of the recommendation pipeline. By integrating large language models (LLMs) into key stages of user interest mining, item retrieval, and explanation generation, RecGPT transforms log-fitting recommendation into an intent-centric process. To effectively align general-purpose LLMs to the above domain-specific recommendation tasks at scale, RecGPT incorporates a multi-stage training paradigm, which integrates reasoning-enhanced pre-alignment and self-training evolution, guided by a Human-LLM cooperative judge system. Currently, RecGPT has been fully deployed on the Taobao App. Online experiments demonstrate that RecGPT achieves consistent performance gains across stakeholders: users benefit from increased content diversity and satisfaction, merchants and the platform gain greater exposure and conversions. These comprehensive improvement results across all stakeholders validates that LLM-driven, intent-centric design can foster a more sustainable and mutually beneficial recommendation ecosystem.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed through hosted APIs, making model extraction a practical threat to model ownership and service security. However, individual extraction queries often resemble benign requests, and existing evaluations often focus on single-query anomaly scoring or pure benign-versus-attacker user settings. We formulate model extraction monitoring as benign-calibrated traffic-window distribution testing and show that an embarrassingly simple detector is effective: embed incoming queries into a semantic space and test whether their aggregate distribution deviates from historical benign traffic. We instantiate the detector with maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), using only benign-vs-benign comparisons to set the decision threshold. We evaluate on fourteen attacker-normal query pairs from four extraction scenarios and compare with adapted PRADA, SEAT, CAP, DATE, and marginal Mahalanobis baselines. Across three random seeds, MMD achieves 0.3% benign FPR, 100.0% pure-attacker TPR, 90.5% average TPR over attacker fractions, and 95.1% balanced accuracy. These results show that benign-calibrated distribution testing is a strong empirical baseline for model extraction detection in both user-level and mixed multi-user LLM API traffic. Code is released at: https://github.com/LabRAI/mmd-llm-mea-detection.

Multivariate Time Series forecasting has been an increasingly popular topic in various applications and scenarios. Recently, contrastive learning and Transformer-based models have achieved good performance in many long-term series forecasting tasks. However, there are still several issues in existing methods. First, the training paradigm of contrastive learning and downstream prediction tasks are inconsistent, leading to inaccurate prediction results. Second, existing Transformer-based models which resort to similar patterns in historical time series data for predicting future values generally induce severe distribution shift problems, and do not fully leverage the sequence information compared to self-supervised methods. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework named Ti-MAE, in which the input time series are assumed to follow an integrate distribution. In detail, Ti-MAE randomly masks out embedded time series data and learns an autoencoder to reconstruct them at the point-level. Ti-MAE adopts mask modeling (rather than contrastive learning) as the auxiliary task and bridges the connection between existing representation learning and generative Transformer-based methods, reducing the difference between upstream and downstream forecasting tasks while maintaining the utilization of original time series data. Experiments on several public real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework of masked autoencoding could learn strong representations directly from the raw data, yielding better performance in time series forecasting and classification tasks.

Most undeciphered lost languages exhibit two characteristics that pose significant decipherment challenges: (1) the scripts are not fully segmented into words; (2) the closest known language is not determined. We propose a decipherment model that handles both of these challenges by building on rich linguistic constraints reflecting consistent patterns in historical sound change. We capture the natural phonological geometry by learning character embeddings based on the International Phonetic Alphabet (IPA). The resulting generative framework jointly models word segmentation and cognate alignment, informed by phonological constraints. We evaluate the model on both deciphered languages (Gothic, Ugaritic) and an undeciphered one (Iberian). The experiments show that incorporating phonetic geometry leads to clear and consistent gains. Additionally, we propose a measure for language closeness which correctly identifies related languages for Gothic and Ugaritic. For Iberian, the method does not show strong evidence supporting Basque as a related language, concurring with the favored position by the current scholarship.

Distributed blackbox consensus optimization is a fundamental problem in multi-agent systems, where agents must improve a global objective using only local objective queries and limited neighbor communication. Existing methods largely rely on handcrafted update rules and static cooperation patterns, which often struggle to balance local adaptation, global coordination, and communication efficiency in heterogeneous nonconvex environments. In this paper, we take an initial step toward trajectory-driven self-design for distributed black-box consensus optimization. We first redesign the agent-level swarm dynamics with an adaptive internal mechanism tailored to decentralized consensus settings, improving the balance between exploration, convergence, and local escape. Built on top of this adaptive execution layer, we propose Learning to Act and Cooperate (LACMAS), a trajectorydriven framework in which large language models provide sparse highlevel guidance for shaping both agentinternal action behaviors and agentexternal cooperation patterns from historical optimization trajectories. We further introduce a phased cognitive scheduling strategy to activate different forms of adaptation in a resource-aware manner. Experiments on standard distributed black-box benchmarks and real-world distributed tasks show that LAC-MAS consistently improves solution quality, convergence efficiency, and communication efficiency over strong baselines, suggesting a practical route from handcrafted distributed coordination toward self-designing multi-agent optimization systems.

Multivariate time series data typically comprises two distinct modalities: variable semantics and sampled numerical observations. Traditional time series models treat variables as anonymous statistical signals, overlooking the rich semantic information embedded in variable names and data descriptions. However, these textual descriptors often encode critical domain knowledge that is essential for robust and interpretable modeling. Here we present TimeMKG, a multimodal causal reasoning framework that elevates time series modeling from low-level signal processing to knowledge informed inference. TimeMKG employs large language models to interpret variable semantics and constructs structured Multivariate Knowledge Graphs that capture inter-variable relationships. A dual-modality encoder separately models the semantic prompts, generated from knowledge graph triplets, and the statistical patterns from historical time series. Cross-modality attention aligns and fuses these representations at the variable level, injecting causal priors into downstream tasks such as forecasting and classification, providing explicit and interpretable priors to guide model reasoning. The experiment in diverse datasets demonstrates that incorporating variable-level knowledge significantly improves both predictive performance and generalization.

In this paper, we focus on the often-overlooked issue of embedding collapse in existing diffusion-based sequential recommendation models and propose ADRec, an innovative framework designed to mitigate this problem. Diverging from previous diffusion-based methods, ADRec applies an independent noise process to each token and performs diffusion across the entire target sequence during training. ADRec captures token interdependency through auto-regression while modeling per-token distributions through token-level diffusion. This dual approach enables the model to effectively capture both sequence dynamics and item representations, overcoming the limitations of existing methods. To further mitigate embedding collapse, we propose a three-stage training strategy: (1) pre-training the embedding weights, (2) aligning these weights with the ADRec backbone, and (3) fine-tuning the model. During inference, ADRec applies the denoising process only to the last token, ensuring that the meaningful patterns in historical interactions are preserved. Our comprehensive empirical evaluation across six datasets underscores the effectiveness of ADRec in enhancing both the accuracy and efficiency of diffusion-based sequential recommendation systems.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Researchers have been using Neural Networks and other related machine-learning techniques to price options since the early 1990s. After three decades of improvements in machine learning techniques, computational processing power, cloud computing, and data availability, this paper is able to provide a comparison of using Google Cloud's AutoML Regressor, TensorFlow Neural Networks, and XGBoost Gradient Boosting Decision Trees for pricing European Options. All three types of models were able to outperform the Black Scholes Model in terms of mean absolute error. These results showcase the potential of using historical data from an option's underlying asset for pricing European options, especially when using machine learning algorithms that learn complex patterns that traditional parametric models do not take into account.

We investigate whether neural models trained exclusively on modern morphological data can recover cross-lingual lexical structure consistent with historical reconstruction. Using BantuMorph v7, a transformer over Bantu morphological paradigms, we analyze 14 Eastern and Southern Bantu languages, extract encoder embeddings for their noun and verb lemmas, and identify 728 noun and 1,525 verb cognate candidates shared across 5+ languages. Evaluating these candidates against established historical resources-the Bantu Lexical Reconstructions database (BLR3; 4,786 reconstructed Proto-Bantu forms) and the ASJP basic vocabulary-we confirm 10 of the top 11 noun candidates (90.9%) align with previously reconstructed Proto-Bantu forms, including *-ntU 'person' (8 languages), *gombe 'cow' (9 languages), and *mUn (9 languages). Extending to verbs, 12 verb cognates align with reconstructed Proto-Bantu roots, including *-bon- 'see' and *-jIm- 'stand', each attested across wide geographic ranges. Cross-model validation using an independent translation model (NLLB-600M) confirms these patterns: both models recover cognate clusters and phylogenetic groupings consistent with established Guthrie-zone classifications (p < 0.01). Cross-lingual noun class analysis reveals that all 13 productive classes maintain >0.83 cosine similarity across languages (within-class > between-class, p < 10^-9). Our dataset is restricted to Eastern and Southern Bantu, so we interpret these results as recovering shared Bantu lexical structure consistent with Proto-Bantu rather than definitively distinguishing Proto-Bantu retentions from later regional innovations.

Sequential recommender systems have demonstrated a huge success for next-item recommendation by explicitly exploiting the temporal order of users' historical interactions. In practice, user interactions contain more useful temporal information beyond order, as shown by some pioneering studies. In this paper, we systematically investigate various temporal information for sequential recommendation and identify three types of advantageous temporal patterns beyond order, including absolute time information, relative item time intervals and relative recommendation time intervals. We are the first to explore item-oriented absolute time patterns. While existing models consider only one or two of these three patterns, we propose a novel holistic temporal pattern based neural network, named HTP, to fully leverage all these three patterns. In particular, we introduce novel components to address the subtle correlations between relative item time intervals and relative recommendation time intervals, which render a major technical challenge. Extensive experiments on three real-world benchmark datasets show that our HTP model consistently and substantially outperforms many state-of-the-art models. Our code is publically available at https://github.com/623851394/HTP/tree/main/HTP-main

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

This paper explores the important role of critical science, and in particular of post-colonial and decolonial theories, in understanding and shaping the ongoing advances in artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is viewed as amongst the technological advances that will reshape modern societies and their relations. Whilst the design and deployment of systems that continually adapt holds the promise of far-reaching positive change, they simultaneously pose significant risks, especially to already vulnerable peoples. Values and power are central to this discussion. Decolonial theories use historical hindsight to explain patterns of power that shape our intellectual, political, economic, and social world. By embedding a decolonial critical approach within its technical practice, AI communities can develop foresight and tactics that can better align research and technology development with established ethical principles, centring vulnerable peoples who continue to bear the brunt of negative impacts of innovation and scientific progress. We highlight problematic applications that are instances of coloniality, and using a decolonial lens, submit three tactics that can form a decolonial field of artificial intelligence: creating a critical technical practice of AI, seeking reverse tutelage and reverse pedagogies, and the renewal of affective and political communities. The years ahead will usher in a wave of new scientific breakthroughs and technologies driven by AI research, making it incumbent upon AI communities to strengthen the social contract through ethical foresight and the multiplicity of intellectual perspectives available to us; ultimately supporting future technologies that enable greater well-being, with the goal of beneficence and justice for all.

Across millennia, complex societies have faced the same coordination problem of how to organize collective action among cognitively bounded and informationally incomplete individuals. Different civilizations developed different political institutions to answer the same basic questions of who proposes, who reviews, who executes, and how errors are corrected. We argue that multi-agent systems built on large language models face the same challenge. Their central problem is not only individual intelligence, but collective organization. Historical institutions therefore provide a structured design space for multi-agent architectures, making key trade-offs between efficiency and error correction, centralization and distribution, and specialization and redundancy empirically testable. We translate seven historical political institutions, spanning four canonical governance patterns, into executable multi-agent architectures and evaluate them under identical conditions across three large language models and two benchmarks. We find that governance topology strongly shapes collective performance. Within a single model, the gap between the best and worst institution exceeds 57 percentage points, while the optimal architecture shifts systematically with model capability and task characteristics. These results suggest that collective intelligence will not advance through a single optimal organizational form, but through governance mechanisms that can be reselected and reconfigured as tasks and capabilities evolve. More broadly, this points to a transition from self-evolving agents to the self-evolving multi-agent system. The code is available on https://github.com/cf3i/SocialSystemArena{GitHub}.

NLP is in a period of disruptive change that is impacting our methodologies, funding sources, and public perception. In this work, we seek to understand how to shape our future by better understanding our past. We study factors that shape NLP as a field, including culture, incentives, and infrastructure by conducting long-form interviews with 26 NLP researchers of varying seniority, research area, institution, and social identity. Our interviewees identify cyclical patterns in the field, as well as new shifts without historical parallel, including changes in benchmark culture and software infrastructure. We complement this discussion with quantitative analysis of citation, authorship, and language use in the ACL Anthology over time. We conclude by discussing shared visions, concerns, and hopes for the future of NLP. We hope that this study of our field's past and present can prompt informed discussion of our community's implicit norms and more deliberate action to consciously shape the future.

Sequential Recommendation (SeqRec) aims to predict the next item by capturing sequential patterns from users' historical interactions, playing a crucial role in many real-world recommender systems. However, existing approaches predominantly adopt a direct forward computation paradigm, where the final hidden state of the sequence encoder serves as the user representation. We argue that this inference paradigm, due to its limited computational depth, struggles to model the complex evolving nature of user preferences and lacks a nuanced understanding of long-tail items, leading to suboptimal performance. To address this issue, we propose ReaRec, the first inference-time computing framework for recommender systems, which enhances user representations through implicit multi-step reasoning. Specifically, ReaRec autoregressively feeds the sequence's last hidden state into the sequential recommender while incorporating special reasoning position embeddings to decouple the original item encoding space from the multi-step reasoning space. Moreover, we introduce two lightweight reasoning-based learning methods, Ensemble Reasoning Learning (ERL) and Progressive Reasoning Learning (PRL), to further effectively exploit ReaRec's reasoning potential. Extensive experiments on five public real-world datasets and different SeqRec architectures demonstrate the generality and effectiveness of our proposed ReaRec. Remarkably, post-hoc analyses reveal that ReaRec significantly elevates the performance ceiling of multiple sequential recommendation backbones by approximately 30\%-50\%. Thus, we believe this work can open a new and promising avenue for future research in inference-time computing for sequential recommendation.

Coopetition refers to simultaneous cooperation and competition among actors wherein actors 'cooperate to grow the pie and compete to split it up.' Modern socio-technical systems are characterized by strategic coopetition wherein actors concomitantly cooperate to create value and compete to capture it. While conceptual modeling languages such as i* provide rich qualitative representations of strategic dependencies, they lack mechanisms for quantitative analysis of dynamic trade-offs. Conversely, classical game theory offers mathematical rigor but strips away contextual richness. This report bridges this gap by developing computational foundations that formalize two critical dimensions of coopetition: interdependence and complementarity. We ground interdependence in i* structural dependency analysis, translating depender-dependee-dependum relationships into quantitative interdependence coefficients via a structured translation framework. We formalize complementarity following Brandenburger and Nalebuff's Added Value concept, modeling synergistic value creation with validated parameterization. We integrate structural dependencies with bargaining power in value appropriation and introduce a game-theoretic formulation where Nash Equilibrium incorporates structural interdependence. Validation combines over 22,000 experimental trials across power and logarithmic specifications with the Samsung-Sony S-LCD joint venture (2004-2011). Under strict historical alignment scoring, logarithmic specifications achieve 58/60 compared to power functions (46/60), producing realistic 41% cooperation increases aligning with documented S-LCD patterns while power functions produce 166% increases exceeding realistic bounds. Statistical significance confirmed at p < 0.001, Cohen's d > 9.

The Transformer architecture has become a cornerstone of modern artificial intelligence, but its core self-attention mechanism suffers from a complexity bottleneck that scales quadratically with sequence length, severely limiting its application in long-sequence tasks. To address this challenge, existing linear attention methods typically sacrifice model performance by relying on data-agnostic kernel approximations or restrictive context selection. This paper returns to the first principles of connectionism, starting from the topological structure of information flow, to introduce a novel linear attention architecture-TLinFormer. By reconfiguring neuron connection patterns, TLinFormer achieves strict linear complexity while computing exact attention scores and ensuring information flow remains aware of the full historical context. This design aims to bridge the performance gap prevalent between existing efficient attention methods and standard attention. Through a series of experiments, we systematically evaluate the performance of TLinFormer against a standard Transformer baseline on long-sequence inference tasks. The results demonstrate that TLinFormer exhibits overwhelming advantages in key metrics such as inference latency, KV cache efficiency, memory footprint, and overall speedup.

Smart contract transactions associated with security attacks often exhibit distinct behavioral patterns compared with historical benign transactions before the attacking events. While many runtime monitoring and guarding mechanisms have been proposed to validate invariants and stop anomalous transactions on the fly, the empirical effectiveness of the invariants used remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we studied 23 prevalent invariants of 8 categories, which are either deployed in high-profile protocols or endorsed by leading auditing firms and security experts. Using these well-established invariants as templates, we developed a tool Trace2Inv which dynamically generates new invariants customized for a given contract based on its historical transaction data. We evaluated Trace2Inv on 42 smart contracts that fell victim to 27 distinct exploits on the Ethereum blockchain. Our findings reveal that the most effective invariant guard alone can successfully block 18 of the 27 identified exploits with minimal gas overhead. Our analysis also shows that most of the invariants remain effective even when the experienced attackers attempt to bypass them. Additionally, we studied the possibility of combining multiple invariant guards, resulting in blocking up to 23 of the 27 benchmark exploits and achieving false positive rates as low as 0.32%. Trace2Inv outperforms current state-of-the-art works on smart contract invariant mining and transaction attack detection in terms of both practicality and accuracy. Though Trace2Inv is not primarily designed for transaction attack detection, it surprisingly found two previously unreported exploit transactions, earlier than any reported exploit transactions against the same victim contracts.

Learning robotic manipulation policies through supervised learning from demonstrations remains challenging when policies encounter execution variations not explicitly covered during training. While incorporating historical context through attention mechanisms can improve robustness, standard approaches process all past states in a sequence without explicitly modeling the temporal structure that demonstrations may include, such as failure and recovery patterns. We propose a Cross-State Transition Attention Transformer that employs a novel State Transition Attention (STA) mechanism to modulate standard attention weights based on learned state evolution patterns, enabling policies to better adapt their behavior based on execution history. Our approach combines this structured attention with temporal masking during training, where visual information is randomly removed from recent timesteps to encourage temporal reasoning from historical context. Evaluation in simulation shows that STA consistently outperforms standard attention approach and temporal modeling methods like TCN and LSTM networks, achieving more than 2x improvement over cross-attention on precision-critical tasks. The source code and data can be accessed at https://github.com/iit-DLSLab/croSTAta

Structured images (e.g., charts and geometric diagrams) remain challenging for multimodal large language models (MLLMs), as perceptual slips can cascade into erroneous conclusions. Intermediate visual cues can steer reasoning; however, existing cue-based methods are constrained with low-fidelity image processing and linear, rigid reasoning patterns, limiting their effectiveness on complex structured-image tasks. In this paper, we propose PixelCraft, a novel multi-agent system for high-fidelity image processing and flexible visual reasoning on structured images. The system comprises a dispatcher, a planner, a reasoner, critics, and a set of visual tool agents. To achieve high-fidelity processing, we construct a high-quality corpus and fine-tune an MLLM into a grounding model, whose pixel-level localizations are integrated with traditional computer vision (CV) algorithms in tool agents. Building on this foundation, PixelCraft facilitates flexible visual reasoning through a dynamic three-stage workflow of tool selection, agent discussion, and self-criticism. Moreover, unlike prior linear reasoning patterns that simply append historical images, PixelCraft maintains an image memory to allow the planner to adaptively revisit earlier visual steps, explore alternative reasoning branches, and dynamically adjust the reasoning trajectory during discussion. Extensive experiments on challenging chart and geometry benchmarks demonstrate that PixelCraft significantly improves visual reasoning performance for advanced MLLMs, setting a new standard for structured image reasoning. Our code will be available at https://github.com/microsoft/PixelCraft.

Constructing memory from users' long-term conversations overcomes LLMs' contextual limitations and enables personalized interactions. Recent studies focus on hierarchical memory to model users' multi-granular behavioral patterns via clustering and aggregating historical conversations. However, conversational noise and memory hallucinations can be amplified during clustering, causing locally aggregated memories to misalign with the user's global persona. To mitigate this issue, we propose Bi-Mem, an agentic framework ensuring hierarchical memory fidelity through bidirectional construction. Specifically, we deploy an inductive agent to form the hierarchical memory: it extracts factual information from raw conversations to form fact-level memory, aggregates them into thematic scenes (i.e., local scene-level memory) using graph clustering, and infers users' profiles as global persona-level memory. Simultaneously, a reflective agent is designed to calibrate local scene-level memories using global constraints derived from the persona-level memory, thereby enforcing global-local alignment. For coherent memory recall, we propose an associative retrieval mechanism: beyond initial hierarchical search, a spreading activation process allows facts to evoke contextual scenes, while scene-level matches retrieve salient supporting factual information. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Bi-Mem achieves significant improvements in question answering performance on long-term personalized conversational tasks.

I introduce a new large-scale dataset of historical wire articles from U.S. Southern newspapers, spanning 1960-1975 and covering multiple wire services: The Associated Press, United Press International, Newspaper Enterprise Association. Unlike prior work focusing on front-page content, this dataset captures articles across the entire newspaper, offering broader insight into mid-century Southern coverage. The dataset includes a version that has undergone an LLM-based text cleanup pipeline to reduce OCR noise, enhancing its suitability for quantitative text analysis. Additionally, duplicate versions of articles are retained to enable analysis of editorial differences in language and framing across newspapers. Each article is tagged by wire service, facilitating comparative studies of editorial patterns across agencies. This resource opens new avenues for research in computational social science, digital humanities, and historical linguistics, providing a detailed perspective on how Southern newspapers relayed national and international news during a transformative period in American history. The dataset will be made available upon publication or request for research purposes.

Owing to the unprecedented capability in semantic understanding and logical reasoning, the pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have shown fantastic potential in developing the next-generation recommender systems (RSs). However, the static index paradigm adopted by current methods greatly restricts the utilization of LLMs capacity for recommendation, leading to not only the insufficient alignment between semantic and collaborative knowledge, but also the neglect of high-order user-item interaction patterns. In this paper, we propose Twin-Tower Dynamic Semantic Recommender (TTDS), the first generative RS which adopts dynamic semantic index paradigm, targeting at resolving the above problems simultaneously. To be more specific, we for the first time contrive a dynamic knowledge fusion framework which integrates a twin-tower semantic token generator into the LLM-based recommender, hierarchically allocating meaningful semantic index for items and users, and accordingly predicting the semantic index of target item. Furthermore, a dual-modality variational auto-encoder is proposed to facilitate multi-grained alignment between semantic and collaborative knowledge. Eventually, a series of novel tuning tasks specially customized for capturing high-order user-item interaction patterns are proposed to take advantages of user historical behavior. Extensive experiments across three public datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology in developing LLM-based generative RSs. The proposed TTDS recommender achieves an average improvement of 19.41% in Hit-Rate and 20.84% in NDCG metric, compared with the leading baseline methods.

Despite the success of reinforcement learning for large language models, a common failure mode is reduced sampling diversity, where the policy repeatedly generates similar erroneous behaviors. Classical entropy regularization encourages randomness under the current policy, but does not explicitly discourage recurrent failure patterns across rollouts. We propose MEDS, a Memory-Enhanced Dynamic reward Shaping framework that incorporates historical behavioral signals into reward design. By storing and leveraging intermediate model representations, we capture features of past rollouts and use density-based clustering to identify frequently recurring error patterns. Rollouts assigned to more prevalent error clusters are penalized more heavily, encouraging broader exploration while reducing repeated mistakes. Across five datasets and three base models, MEDS consistently improves average performance over existing baselines, achieving gains of up to 4.13 pass@1 points and 4.37 pass@128 points. Additional analyses using both LLM-based annotations and quantitative diversity metrics show that MEDS increases behavioral diversity during sampling.

We present Qualixar OS, the first application-layer operating system for universal AI agent orchestration. Unlike kernel-level approaches (AIOS) or single-framework tools (AutoGen, CrewAI), Qualixar OS provides a complete runtime for heterogeneous multi-agent systems spanning 10 LLM providers, 8+ agent frameworks, and 7 transports. We contribute: (1) execution semantics for 12 multi-agent topologies including grid, forest, mesh, and maker patterns; (2) Forge, an LLM-driven team design engine with historical strategy memory; (3) three-layer model routing combining Q-learning, five strategies, and Bayesian POMDP with dynamic multi-provider discovery; (4) a consensus-based judge pipeline with Goodhart detection, JSD drift monitoring, and alignment trilemma navigation; (5) four-layer content attribution with HMAC signing and steganographic watermarks; (6) universal compatibility via the Claw Bridge supporting MCP and A2A protocols with a 25-command Universal Command Protocol; (7) a 24-tab production dashboard with visual workflow builder and skill marketplace. Qualixar OS is validated by 2,821 test cases across 217 event types and 8 quality modules. On a custom 20-task evaluation suite, the system achieves 100% accuracy at a mean cost of $0.000039 per task. Source-available under the Elastic License 2.0.

Analyzing cultural-heritage artifacts remains challenging for MLLMs: general models lack domain expertise, and SFT often overfits superficial patterns, yielding brittle reasoning for authentication and historical attribution. This raises the question of how to equip MLLMs with robust, expert-level reasoning for ancient Greek pottery. We present VaseVL, an SFT-then-RL system that turns evaluation into supervision: we construct a taxonomy of question types, probe the SFT model to localize type-specific performance gaps, and optimize with type-conditioned, compositionality-oriented rewards targeting those gaps. We also release VaseVQA, a comprehensive benchmark of 31,773 images designed to probe deep understanding. Experiments show state-of-the-art results on style classification and historical attribution with marked gains in compositional robustness over SFT-only baselines, validating diagnosis-guided, taxonomy-conditioned reward engineering and providing a reusable resource for future research. Code and dataset will be available at https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/VaseVQA.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled n-length input/output one-layer linear model from O(n^2) to O(n), MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters (0.1K), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.

Many Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) approaches exploit motion information to associate all the detected objects across frames. However, many methods that rely on filtering-based algorithms, such as the Kalman Filter, often work well in linear motion scenarios but struggle to accurately predict the locations of objects undergoing complex and non-linear movements. To tackle these scenarios, we propose a motion-based MOT approach with an enhanced temporal motion predictor, ETTrack. Specifically, the motion predictor integrates a transformer model and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to capture short-term and long-term motion patterns, and it predicts the future motion of individual objects based on the historical motion information. Additionally, we propose a novel Momentum Correction Loss function that provides additional information regarding the motion direction of objects during training. This allows the motion predictor rapidly adapt to motion variations and more accurately predict future motion. Our experimental results demonstrate that ETTrack achieves a competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art trackers on DanceTrack and SportsMOT, scoring 56.4% and 74.4% in HOTA metrics, respectively.

This paper presents a novel framework for automated code generation and debugging, designed to improve accuracy, efficiency, and scalability in software development. The proposed system integrates three core components LangGraph, GLM4 Flash, and ChromaDB within a four step iterative workflow to deliver robust performance and seamless functionality. LangGraph serves as a graph-based library for orchestrating tasks, providing precise control and execution while maintaining a unified state object for dynamic updates and consistency. It supports multi-agent, hierarchical, and sequential processes, making it highly adaptable to complex software engineering workflows. GLM4 Flash, a large language model, leverages its advanced capabilities in natural language understanding, contextual reasoning, and multilingual support to generate accurate code snippets based on user prompts. ChromaDB acts as a vector database for semantic search and contextual memory storage, enabling the identification of patterns and the generation of context-aware bug fixes based on historical data. The system operates through a structured four-step process: (1) Code Generation, which translates natural language descriptions into executable code; (2) Code Execution, which validates the code by identifying runtime errors and inconsistencies; (3) Code Repair, which iteratively refines buggy code using ChromaDB's memory capabilities and LangGraph's state tracking; and (4) Code Update, which ensures the code meets functional and performance requirements through iterative modifications.

Long-term user engagement (LTE) optimization in sequential recommender systems (SRS) is shown to be suited by reinforcement learning (RL) which finds a policy to maximize long-term rewards. Meanwhile, RL has its shortcomings, particularly requiring a large number of online samples for exploration, which is risky in real-world applications. One of the appealing ways to avoid the risk is to build a simulator and learn the optimal recommendation policy in the simulator. In LTE optimization, the simulator is to simulate multiple users' daily feedback for given recommendations. However, building a user simulator with no reality-gap, i.e., can predict user's feedback exactly, is unrealistic because the users' reaction patterns are complex and historical logs for each user are limited, which might mislead the simulator-based recommendation policy. In this paper, we present a practical simulator-based recommender policy training approach, Simulation-to-Recommendation (Sim2Rec) to handle the reality-gap problem for LTE optimization. Specifically, Sim2Rec introduces a simulator set to generate various possibilities of user behavior patterns, then trains an environment-parameter extractor to recognize users' behavior patterns in the simulators. Finally, a context-aware policy is trained to make the optimal decisions on all of the variants of the users based on the inferred environment-parameters. The policy is transferable to unseen environments (e.g., the real world) directly as it has learned to recognize all various user behavior patterns and to make the correct decisions based on the inferred environment-parameters. Experiments are conducted in synthetic environments and a real-world large-scale ride-hailing platform, DidiChuxing. The results show that Sim2Rec achieves significant performance improvement, and produces robust recommendations in unseen environments.

In this paper, we present ApacheJIT, a large dataset for Just-In-Time defect prediction. ApacheJIT consists of clean and bug-inducing software changes in popular Apache projects. ApacheJIT has a total of 106,674 commits (28,239 bug-inducing and 78,435 clean commits). Having a large number of commits makes ApacheJIT a suitable dataset for machine learning models, especially deep learning models that require large training sets to effectively generalize the patterns present in the historical data to future data.

Idioms, whose figurative meanings usually differ from their literal interpretations, are common in everyday language, especially in Chinese, where they often contain historical references and follow specific structural patterns. Despite recent progress in machine translation with large language models, little is known about Chinese idiom translation. In this work, we introduce IdiomEval, a framework with a comprehensive error taxonomy for Chinese idiom translation. We annotate 900 translation pairs from nine modern systems, including GPT-4o and Google Translate, across four domains: web, news, Wikipedia, and social media. We find these systems fail at idiom translation, producing incorrect, literal, partial, or even missing translations. The best-performing system, GPT-4, makes errors in 28% of cases. We also find that existing evaluation metrics measure idiom quality poorly with Pearson correlation below 0.48 with human ratings. We thus develop improved models that achieve F_1 scores of 0.68 for detecting idiom translation errors.

Procedural memory enables large language model (LLM) agents to internalize "how-to" knowledge, theoretically reducing redundant trial-and-error. However, existing frameworks predominantly suffer from a "passive accumulation" paradigm, treating memory as a static append-only archive. To bridge the gap between static storage and dynamic reasoning, we propose ReMe (Remember Me, Refine Me), a comprehensive framework for experience-driven agent evolution. ReMe innovates across the memory lifecycle via three mechanisms: 1) multi-faceted distillation, which extracts fine-grained experiences by recognizing success patterns, analyzing failure triggers and generating comparative insights; 2) context-adaptive reuse, which tailors historical insights to new contexts via scenario-aware indexing; and 3) utility-based refinement, which autonomously adds valid memories and prunes outdated ones to maintain a compact, high-quality experience pool. Extensive experiments on BFCL-V3 and AppWorld demonstrate that ReMe establishes a new state-of-the-art in agent memory system. Crucially, we observe a significant memory-scaling effect: Qwen3-8B equipped with ReMe outperforms larger, memoryless Qwen3-14B, suggesting that self-evolving memory provides a computation-efficient pathway for lifelong learning. We release our code and the reme.library dataset to facilitate further research.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) aim to solve diverse and complex problems through structured reasoning. Recent advances in group-based policy optimization methods have shown promise in enabling stable advantage estimation without reliance on process-level annotations. However, these methods rely on advantage gaps induced by high-quality samples within the same batch, which makes the training process fragile and inefficient when intra-group advantages collapse under challenging tasks. To address these problems, we propose a reinforcement learning mechanism named \textbf{R^3} that along three directions: (1) a cross-context \underline{\textbf{R}eplay} strategy that maintains the intra-group advantage by recalling valuable examples from historical trajectories of the same query, (2) an in-context self-\underline{\textbf{R}eflection} mechanism enabling models to refine outputs by leveraging past failures, and (3) a structural entropy \underline{\textbf{R}anking reward}, which assigns relative rewards to truncated or failed samples by ranking responses based on token-level entropy patterns, capturing both local exploration and global stability. We implement our method on Deepseek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B and train it on the DeepscaleR-40k in the math domain. Experiments demonstrate our method achieves SoTA performance on several math benchmarks, representing significant improvements and fewer reasoning tokens over the base models. Code and model will be released.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and environmental sustainability, but remains challenging due to the complex pollutant dynamics. Existing deep learning methods often model pollutant dynamics as an instantaneous process, overlooking the intrinsic delays in pollutant propagation. Thus, we propose AirDDE, the first neural delay differential equation framework in this task that integrates delay modeling into a continuous-time pollutant evolution under physical guidance. Specifically, two novel components are introduced: (1) a memory-augmented attention module that retrieves globally and locally historical features, which can adaptively capture delay effects modulated by multifactor data; and (2) a physics-guided delay evolving function, grounded in the diffusion-advection equation, that models diffusion, delayed advection, and source/sink terms, which can capture delay-aware pollutant accumulation patterns with physical plausibility. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AirDDE achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance with an average MAE reduction of 8.79\% over the best baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/w2obin/airdde-aaai.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

This onomasiological study uses diachronic word embeddings to explore how different words represented the same concepts over time, using historical word data from 1800 to 2000. We identify shifts in energy, transport, entertainment, and computing domains, revealing connections between language and societal changes. Our approach consisted in using diachronic word embeddings trained using word2vec with skipgram and aligning them using orthogonal Procrustes. We discuss possible difficulties linked to the relationships the method identifies. Moreover, we look at the ethical aspects of interpreting results, highlighting the need for expert insights to understand the method's significance.

We present a novel and detailed dataset on origin-destination annual migration flows and stocks between 230 countries and regions, spanning the period from 1990 to the present. Our flow estimates are further disaggregated by country of birth, providing a comprehensive picture of migration over the last 35 years. The estimates are obtained by training a deep recurrent neural network to learn flow patterns from 18 covariates for all countries, including geographic, economic, cultural, societal, and political information. The recurrent architecture of the neural network means that the entire past can influence current migration patterns, allowing us to learn long-range temporal correlations. By training an ensemble of neural networks and additionally pushing uncertainty on the covariates through the trained network, we obtain confidence bounds for all our estimates, allowing researchers to pinpoint the geographic regions most in need of additional data collection. We validate our approach on various test sets of unseen data, demonstrating that it significantly outperforms traditional methods estimating five-year flows while delivering a significant increase in temporal resolution. The model is fully open source: all training data, neural network weights, and training code are made public alongside the migration estimates, providing a valuable resource for future studies of human migration.

The rapid proliferation of information in the digital era underscores the importance of accurate historical representation and interpretation. While artificial intelligence has shown promise in various fields, its potential for historical fact-checking and gap-filling remains largely untapped. This study evaluates the performance of three large language models LLMs GPT 3.5, GPT 4, and GoogleBARD in the context of predicting and verifying historical events based on given data. A novel metric, Distance to Reality (DTR), is introduced to assess the models' outputs against established historical facts. The results reveal a substantial potential for AI in historical studies, with GPT 4 demonstrating superior performance. This paper underscores the need for further research into AI's role in enriching our understanding of the past and bridging historical knowledge gaps.

We introduce a pattern mining framework that operates on semi-structured datasets and exploits the dichotomy between outcomes. Our approach takes advantage of constraint reasoning to find sequential patterns that occur frequently and exhibit desired properties. This allows the creation of novel pattern embeddings that are useful for knowledge extraction and predictive modeling. Finally, we present an application on customer intent prediction from digital clickstream data. Overall, we show that pattern embeddings play an integrator role between semi-structured data and machine learning models, improve the performance of the downstream task and retain interpretability.

The digitisation of historical documents has provided historians with unprecedented research opportunities. Yet, the conventional approach to analysing historical documents involves converting them from images to text using OCR, a process that overlooks the potential benefits of treating them as images and introduces high levels of noise. To bridge this gap, we take advantage of recent advancements in pixel-based language models trained to reconstruct masked patches of pixels instead of predicting token distributions. Due to the scarcity of real historical scans, we propose a novel method for generating synthetic scans to resemble real historical documents. We then pre-train our model, PHD, on a combination of synthetic scans and real historical newspapers from the 1700-1900 period. Through our experiments, we demonstrate that PHD exhibits high proficiency in reconstructing masked image patches and provide evidence of our model's noteworthy language understanding capabilities. Notably, we successfully apply our model to a historical QA task, highlighting its usefulness in this domain.

Historical analogies, which compare known past events with contemporary but unfamiliar events, are important abilities that help people make decisions and understand the world. However, research in applied history suggests that people have difficulty finding appropriate analogies. And previous studies in the AI community have also overlooked historical analogies. To fill this gap, in this paper, we focus on the historical analogy acquisition task, which aims to acquire analogous historical events for a given event. We explore retrieval and generation methods for acquiring historical analogies based on different large language models (LLMs). Furthermore, we propose a self-reflection method to mitigate hallucinations and stereotypes when LLMs generate historical analogies. Through human evaluations and our specially designed automatic multi-dimensional assessment, we find that LLMs generally have a good potential for historical analogies. And the performance of the models can be further improved by using our self-reflection method.

We present MapReader, a free, open-source software library written in Python for analyzing large map collections (scanned or born-digital). This library transforms the way historians can use maps by turning extensive, homogeneous map sets into searchable primary sources. MapReader allows users with little or no computer vision expertise to i) retrieve maps via web-servers; ii) preprocess and divide them into patches; iii) annotate patches; iv) train, fine-tune, and evaluate deep neural network models; and v) create structured data about map content. We demonstrate how MapReader enables historians to interpret a collection of approx16K nineteenth-century Ordnance Survey map sheets (approx30.5M patches), foregrounding the challenge of translating visual markers into machine-readable data. We present a case study focusing on British rail infrastructure and buildings as depicted on these maps. We also show how the outputs from the MapReader pipeline can be linked to other, external datasets, which we use to evaluate as well as enrich and interpret the results. We release approx62K manually annotated patches used here for training and evaluating the models.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Social scientists and the general public often analyze contemporary events by drawing parallels with the past, a process complicated by the vast, noisy, and unstructured nature of historical texts. For example, hundreds of millions of page scans from historical newspapers have been noisily transcribed. Traditional sparse methods for searching for relevant material in these vast corpora, e.g., with keywords, can be brittle given complex vocabularies and OCR noise. This study introduces News Deja Vu, a novel semantic search tool that leverages transformer large language models and a bi-encoder approach to identify historical news articles that are most similar to modern news queries. News Deja Vu first recognizes and masks entities, in order to focus on broader parallels rather than the specific named entities being discussed. Then, a contrastively trained, lightweight bi-encoder retrieves historical articles that are most similar semantically to a modern query, illustrating how phenomena that might seem unique to the present have varied historical precedents. Aimed at social scientists, the user-friendly News Deja Vu package is designed to be accessible for those who lack extensive familiarity with deep learning. It works with large text datasets, and we show how it can be deployed to a massive scale corpus of historical, open-source news articles. While human expertise remains important for drawing deeper insights, News Deja Vu provides a powerful tool for exploring parallels in how people have perceived past and present.

Time series play a fundamental role in many domains, capturing a plethora of information about the underlying data-generating processes. When a process generates multiple synchronized signals we are faced with multidimensional time series. In this context a fundamental problem is that of motif mining, where we seek patterns repeating twice with minor variations, spanning some of the dimensions. State of the art exact solutions for this problem run in time quadratic in the length of the input time series. We provide a scalable method to find the top-k motifs in multidimensional time series with probabilistic guarantees on the quality of the results. Our algorithm runs in time subquadratic in the length of the input, and returns the exact solution with probability at least 1-δ, where δ is a user-defined parameter. The algorithm is designed to be adaptive to the input distribution, self-tuning its parameters while respecting user-defined limits on the memory to use. Our theoretical analysis is complemented by an extensive experimental evaluation, showing that our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the state of the art.

False claims that have been previously fact-checked can still spread on social media. To mitigate their continual spread, detecting previously fact-checked claims is indispensable. Given a claim, existing works focus on providing evidence for detection by reranking candidate fact-checking articles (FC-articles) retrieved by BM25. However, these performances may be limited because they ignore the following characteristics of FC-articles: (1) claims are often quoted to describe the checked events, providing lexical information besides semantics; (2) sentence templates to introduce or debunk claims are common across articles, providing pattern information. Models that ignore the two aspects only leverage semantic relevance and may be misled by sentences that describe similar but irrelevant events. In this paper, we propose a novel reranker, MTM (Memory-enhanced Transformers for Matching) to rank FC-articles using key sentences selected with event (lexical and semantic) and pattern information. For event information, we propose a ROUGE-guided Transformer which is finetuned with regression of ROUGE. For pattern information, we generate pattern vectors for matching with sentences. By fusing event and pattern information, we select key sentences to represent an article and then predict if the article fact-checks the given claim using the claim, key sentences, and patterns. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that MTM outperforms existing methods. Human evaluation proves that MTM can capture key sentences for explanations. The code and the dataset are at https://github.com/ICTMCG/MTM.

Tracing connections between historical texts is an important part of intertextual research, enabling scholars to reconstruct the virtual library of a writer and identify the sources influencing their creative process. These intertextual links manifest in diverse forms, ranging from direct verbatim quotations to subtle allusions and paraphrases disguised by morphological variation. Language models offer a promising path forward due to their capability of capturing semantic similarity beyond lexical overlap. However, the development of new methods for this task is held back by the scarcity of standardized benchmarks and easy-to-use datasets. We address this gap by introducing Loci Similes, a benchmark for Latin intertextuality detection comprising of a curated dataset of ~172k text segments containing 545 expert-verified parallels linking Late Antique authors to a corpus of classical authors. Using this data, we establish baselines for retrieval and classification of intertextualities with state-of-the-art LLMs.

Many historical map sheets are publicly available for studies that require long-term historical geographic data. The cartographic design of these maps includes a combination of map symbols and text labels. Automatically reading text labels from map images could greatly speed up the map interpretation and helps generate rich metadata describing the map content. Many text detection algorithms have been proposed to locate text regions in map images automatically, but most of the algorithms are trained on out-ofdomain datasets (e.g., scenic images). Training data determines the quality of machine learning models, and manually annotating text regions in map images is labor-extensive and time-consuming. On the other hand, existing geographic data sources, such as Open- StreetMap (OSM), contain machine-readable map layers, which allow us to separate out the text layer and obtain text label annotations easily. However, the cartographic styles between OSM map tiles and historical maps are significantly different. This paper proposes a method to automatically generate an unlimited amount of annotated historical map images for training text detection models. We use a style transfer model to convert contemporary map images into historical style and place text labels upon them. We show that the state-of-the-art text detection models (e.g., PSENet) can benefit from the synthetic historical maps and achieve significant improvement for historical map text detection.

A named entity recognition and classification plays the first and foremost important role in capturing semantics in data and anchoring in translation as well as downstream study for history. However, NER in historical text has faced challenges such as scarcity of annotated corpus, multilanguage variety, various noise, and different convention far different from the contemporary language model. This paper introduces Korean historical corpus (Diary of Royal secretary which is named SeungJeongWon) recorded over several centuries and recently added with named entity information as well as phrase markers which historians carefully annotated. We fined-tuned the language model on history corpus, conducted extensive comparative experiments using our language model and pretrained muti-language models. We set up the hypothesis of combination of time and annotation information and tested it based on statistical t test. Our finding shows that phrase markers clearly improve the performance of NER model in predicting unseen entity in documents written far different time period. It also shows that each of phrase marker and corpus-specific trained model does not improve the performance. We discuss the future research directions and practical strategies to decipher the history document.

Historical maps contain detailed geographic information difficult to find elsewhere covering long-periods of time (e.g., 125 years for the historical topographic maps in the US). However, these maps typically exist as scanned images without searchable metadata. Existing approaches making historical maps searchable rely on tedious manual work (including crowd-sourcing) to generate the metadata (e.g., geolocations and keywords). Optical character recognition (OCR) software could alleviate the required manual work, but the recognition results are individual words instead of location phrases (e.g., "Black" and "Mountain" vs. "Black Mountain"). This paper presents an end-to-end approach to address the real-world problem of finding and indexing historical map images. This approach automatically processes historical map images to extract their text content and generates a set of metadata that is linked to large external geospatial knowledge bases. The linked metadata in the RDF (Resource Description Framework) format support complex queries for finding and indexing historical maps, such as retrieving all historical maps covering mountain peaks higher than 1,000 meters in California. We have implemented the approach in a system called mapKurator. We have evaluated mapKurator using historical maps from several sources with various map styles, scales, and coverage. Our results show significant improvement over the state-of-the-art methods. The code has been made publicly available as modules of the Kartta Labs project at https://github.com/kartta-labs/Project.

In this paper, we present a pipeline for image extraction from historical documents using foundation models, and evaluate text-image prompts and their effectiveness on humanities datasets of varying levels of complexity. The motivation for this approach stems from the high interest of historians in visual elements printed alongside historical texts on the one hand, and from the relative lack of well-annotated datasets within the humanities when compared to other domains. We propose a sequential approach that relies on GroundDINO and Meta's Segment-Anything-Model (SAM) to retrieve a significant portion of visual data from historical documents that can then be used for downstream development tasks and dataset creation, as well as evaluate the effect of different linguistic prompts on the resulting detections.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

The capabilities of the latest large language models (LLMs) have been extended from pure natural language understanding to complex reasoning tasks. However, current reasoning models often exhibit factual inaccuracies in longer reasoning chains, which poses challenges for historical reasoning and limits the potential of LLMs in complex, knowledge-intensive tasks. Historical studies require not only the accurate presentation of factual information but also the ability to establish cross-temporal correlations and derive coherent conclusions from fragmentary and often ambiguous sources. To address these challenges, we propose Kongzi, a large language model specifically designed for historical analysis. Through the integration of curated, high-quality historical data and a novel fact-reinforcement learning strategy, Kongzi demonstrates strong factual alignment and sophisticated reasoning depth. Extensive experiments on tasks such as historical question answering and narrative generation demonstrate that Kongzi outperforms existing models in both factual accuracy and reasoning depth. By effectively addressing the unique challenges inherent in historical texts, Kongzi sets a new standard for the development of accurate and reliable LLMs in professional domains.

To defend against fake news, researchers have developed various methods based on texts. These methods can be grouped as 1) pattern-based methods, which focus on shared patterns among fake news posts rather than the claim itself; and 2) fact-based methods, which retrieve from external sources to verify the claim's veracity without considering patterns. The two groups of methods, which have different preferences of textual clues, actually play complementary roles in detecting fake news. However, few works consider their integration. In this paper, we study the problem of integrating pattern- and fact-based models into one framework via modeling their preference differences, i.e., making the pattern- and fact-based models focus on respective preferred parts in a post and mitigate interference from non-preferred parts as possible. To this end, we build a Preference-aware Fake News Detection Framework (Pref-FEND), which learns the respective preferences of pattern- and fact-based models for joint detection. We first design a heterogeneous dynamic graph convolutional network to generate the respective preference maps, and then use these maps to guide the joint learning of pattern- and fact-based models for final prediction. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that Pref-FEND effectively captures model preferences and improves the performance of models based on patterns, facts, or both.

Recognizing the flow of time in a story is a crucial aspect of understanding it. Prior work related to time has primarily focused on identifying temporal expressions or relative sequencing of events, but here we propose computationally annotating each line of a book with wall clock times, even in the absence of explicit time-descriptive phrases. To do so, we construct a data set of hourly time phrases from 52,183 fictional books. We then construct a time-of-day classification model that achieves an average error of 2.27 hours. Furthermore, we show that by analyzing a book in whole using dynamic programming of breakpoints, we can roughly partition a book into segments that each correspond to a particular time-of-day. This approach improves upon baselines by over two hours. Finally, we apply our model to a corpus of literature categorized by different periods in history, to show interesting trends of hourly activity throughout the past. Among several observations we find that the fraction of events taking place past 10 P.M jumps past 1880 - coincident with the advent of the electric light bulb and city lights.

After decades of massive digitisation, an unprecedented amount of historical documents is available in digital format, along with their machine-readable texts. While this represents a major step forward with respect to preservation and accessibility, it also opens up new opportunities in terms of content mining and the next fundamental challenge is to develop appropriate technologies to efficiently search, retrieve and explore information from this 'big data of the past'. Among semantic indexing opportunities, the recognition and classification of named entities are in great demand among humanities scholars. Yet, named entity recognition (NER) systems are heavily challenged with diverse, historical and noisy inputs. In this survey, we present the array of challenges posed by historical documents to NER, inventory existing resources, describe the main approaches deployed so far, and identify key priorities for future developments.

Colonial archives are at the center of increased interest from a variety of perspectives, as they contain traces of historically marginalized people. Unfortunately, like most archives, they remain difficult to access due to significant persisting barriers. We focus here on one of them: the biases to be found in historical findings aids, such as indexes of person names, which remain in use to this day. In colonial archives, indexes can perpetuate silences by omitting to include mentions of historically marginalized persons. In order to overcome such limitations and pluralize the scope of existing finding aids, we propose using automated entity recognition. To this end, we contribute a fit-for-purpose annotation typology and apply it on the colonial archive of the Dutch East India Company (VOC). We release a corpus of nearly 70,000 annotations as a shared task, for which we provide baselines using state-of-the-art neural network models. Our work intends to stimulate further contributions in the direction of broadening access to (colonial) archives, integrating automation as a possible means to this end.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

We investigated the evolution and transformation of scientific knowledge in the early modern period, analyzing more than 350 different editions of textbooks used for teaching astronomy in European universities from the late fifteenth century to mid-seventeenth century. These historical sources constitute the Sphaera Corpus. By examining different semantic relations among individual parts of each edition on record, we built a multiplex network consisting of six layers, as well as the aggregated network built from the superposition of all the layers. The network analysis reveals the emergence of five different communities. The contribution of each layer in shaping the communities and the properties of each community are studied. The most influential books in the corpus are found by calculating the average age of all the out-going and in-coming links for each book. A small group of editions is identified as a transmitter of knowledge as they bridge past knowledge to the future through a long temporal interval. Our analysis, moreover, identifies the most disruptive books. These books introduce new knowledge that is then adopted by almost all the books published afterwards until the end of the whole period of study. The historical research on the content of the identified books, as an empirical test, finally corroborates the results of all our analyses.

Existing full text datasets of U.S. public domain newspapers do not recognize the often complex layouts of newspaper scans, and as a result the digitized content scrambles texts from articles, headlines, captions, advertisements, and other layout regions. OCR quality can also be low. This study develops a novel, deep learning pipeline for extracting full article texts from newspaper images and applies it to the nearly 20 million scans in Library of Congress's public domain Chronicling America collection. The pipeline includes layout detection, legibility classification, custom OCR, and association of article texts spanning multiple bounding boxes. To achieve high scalability, it is built with efficient architectures designed for mobile phones. The resulting American Stories dataset provides high quality data that could be used for pre-training a large language model to achieve better understanding of historical English and historical world knowledge. The dataset could also be added to the external database of a retrieval-augmented language model to make historical information - ranging from interpretations of political events to minutiae about the lives of people's ancestors - more widely accessible. Furthermore, structured article texts facilitate using transformer-based methods for popular social science applications like topic classification, detection of reproduced content, and news story clustering. Finally, American Stories provides a massive silver quality dataset for innovating multimodal layout analysis models and other multimodal applications.

Compared to standard Named Entity Recognition (NER), identifying persons, locations, and organizations in historical texts constitutes a big challenge. To obtain machine-readable corpora, the historical text is usually scanned and Optical Character Recognition (OCR) needs to be performed. As a result, the historical corpora contain errors. Also, entities like location or organization can change over time, which poses another challenge. Overall, historical texts come with several peculiarities that differ greatly from modern texts and large labeled corpora for training a neural tagger are hardly available for this domain. In this work, we tackle NER for historical German, English, French, Swedish, and Finnish by training large historical language models. We circumvent the need for large amounts of labeled data by using unlabeled data for pretraining a language model. We propose hmBERT, a historical multilingual BERT-based language model, and release the model in several versions of different sizes. Furthermore, we evaluate the capability of hmBERT by solving downstream NER as part of this year's HIPE-2022 shared task and provide detailed analysis and insights. For the Multilingual Classical Commentary coarse-grained NER challenge, our tagger HISTeria outperforms the other teams' models for two out of three languages.

Digitization projects in humanities often generate vast quantities of page images from historical documents, presenting significant challenges for manual sorting and analysis. These archives contain diverse content, including various text types (handwritten, typed, printed), graphical elements (drawings, maps, photos), and layouts (plain text, tables, forms). Efficiently processing this heterogeneous data requires automated methods to categorize pages based on their content, enabling tailored downstream analysis pipelines. This project addresses this need by developing and evaluating an image classification system specifically designed for historical document pages, leveraging advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning. The set of categories was chosen to facilitate content-specific processing workflows, separating pages requiring different analysis techniques (e.g., OCR for text, image analysis for graphics)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

Historical maps are invaluable for analyzing long-term changes in transportation and spatial development, offering a rich source of data for evolutionary studies. However, digitizing and classifying road networks from these maps is often expensive and time-consuming, limiting their widespread use. Recent advancements in deep learning have made automatic road extraction from historical maps feasible, yet these methods typically require large amounts of labeled training data. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep learning with geoinformation, computer-based painting, and image processing methodologies. This framework enables the extraction and classification of roads from historical maps using only road geometries without needing road class labels for training. The process begins with training of a binary segmentation model to extract road geometries, followed by morphological operations, skeletonization, vectorization, and filtering algorithms. Synthetic training data is then generated by a painting function that artificially re-paints road segments using predefined symbology for road classes. Using this synthetic data, a deep ensemble is trained to generate pixel-wise probabilities for road classes to mitigate distribution shift. These predictions are then discretized along the extracted road geometries. Subsequently, further processing is employed to classify entire roads, enabling the identification of potential changes in road classes and resulting in a labeled road class dataset. Our method achieved completeness and correctness scores of over 94% and 92%, respectively, for road class 2, the most prevalent class in the two Siegfried Map sheets from Switzerland used for testing. This research offers a powerful tool for urban planning and transportation decision-making by efficiently extracting and classifying roads from historical maps.

Automatically extracting the geometric content from the hundreds of thousands of diagrams drawn in historical manuscripts would enable historians to study the diffusion of astronomical knowledge on a global scale. However, state-of-the-art vectorization methods, often designed to tackle modern data, are not adapted to the complexity and diversity of historical astronomical diagrams. Our contribution is thus twofold. First, we introduce a unique dataset of 303 astronomical diagrams from diverse traditions, ranging from the XIIth to the XVIIIth century, annotated with more than 3000 line segments, circles and arcs. Second, we develop a model that builds on DINO-DETR to enable the prediction of multiple geometric primitives. We show that it can be trained solely on synthetic data and accurately predict primitives on our challenging dataset. Our approach widely improves over the LETR baseline, which is restricted to lines, by introducing a meaningful parametrization for multiple primitives, jointly training for detection and parameter refinement, using deformable attention and training on rich synthetic data. Our dataset and code are available on our webpage.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

In the U.S. historically, local newspapers drew their content largely from newswires like the Associated Press. Historians argue that newswires played a pivotal role in creating a national identity and shared understanding of the world, but there is no comprehensive archive of the content sent over newswires. We reconstruct such an archive by applying a customized deep learning pipeline to hundreds of terabytes of raw image scans from thousands of local newspapers. The resulting dataset contains 2.7 million unique public domain U.S. newswire articles, written between 1878 and 1977. Locations in these articles are georeferenced, topics are tagged using customized neural topic classification, named entities are recognized, and individuals are disambiguated to Wikipedia using a novel entity disambiguation model. To construct the Newswire dataset, we first recognize newspaper layouts and transcribe around 138 millions structured article texts from raw image scans. We then use a customized neural bi-encoder model to de-duplicate reproduced articles, in the presence of considerable abridgement and noise, quantifying how widely each article was reproduced. A text classifier is used to ensure that we only include newswire articles, which historically are in the public domain. The structured data that accompany the texts provide rich information about the who (disambiguated individuals), what (topics), and where (georeferencing) of the news that millions of Americans read over the course of a century. We also include Library of Congress metadata information about the newspapers that ran the articles on their front pages. The Newswire dataset is useful both for large language modeling - expanding training data beyond what is available from modern web texts - and for studying a diversity of questions in computational linguistics, social science, and the digital humanities.

Text-to-image diffusion models have achieved remarkable success, yet generating coherent image sequences for visual storytelling remains challenging. A key challenge is effectively leveraging all previous text-image pairs, referred to as history text-image pairs, which provide contextual information for maintaining consistency across frames. Existing auto-regressive methods condition on all past image-text pairs but require extensive training, while training-free subject-specific approaches ensure consistency but lack adaptability to narrative prompts. To address these limitations, we propose a multi-modal history adapter for text-to-image diffusion models, ViSTA. It consists of (1) a multi-modal history fusion module to extract relevant history features and (2) a history adapter to condition the generation on the extracted relevant features. We also introduce a salient history selection strategy during inference, where the most salient history text-image pair is selected, improving the quality of the conditioning. Furthermore, we propose to employ a Visual Question Answering-based metric TIFA to assess text-image alignment in visual storytelling, providing a more targeted and interpretable assessment of generated images. Evaluated on the StorySalon and FlintStonesSV dataset, our proposed ViSTA model is not only consistent across different frames, but also well-aligned with the narrative text descriptions.

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta = -0.9224, CI: [-0.9727, -0.8571]). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio = 0.9061, p = 0.504). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

We introduce the AnnoPage Dataset, a novel collection of 7550 pages from historical documents, primarily in Czech and German, spanning from 1485 to the present, focusing on the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The dataset is designed to support research in document layout analysis and object detection. Each page is annotated with axis-aligned bounding boxes (AABB) representing elements of 25 categories of non-textual elements, such as images, maps, decorative elements, or charts, following the Czech Methodology of image document processing. The annotations were created by expert librarians to ensure accuracy and consistency. The dataset also incorporates pages from multiple, mainly historical, document datasets to enhance variability and maintain continuity. The dataset is divided into development and test subsets, with the test set carefully selected to maintain the category distribution. We provide baseline results using YOLO and DETR object detectors, offering a reference point for future research. The AnnoPage Dataset is publicly available on Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12788419), along with ground-truth annotations in YOLO format.

Fake news detection has been a critical task for maintaining the health of the online news ecosystem. However, very few existing works consider the temporal shift issue caused by the rapidly-evolving nature of news data in practice, resulting in significant performance degradation when training on past data and testing on future data. In this paper, we observe that the appearances of news events on the same topic may display discernible patterns over time, and posit that such patterns can assist in selecting training instances that could make the model adapt better to future data. Specifically, we design an effective framework FTT (Forecasting Temporal Trends), which could forecast the temporal distribution patterns of news data and then guide the detector to fast adapt to future distribution. Experiments on the real-world temporally split dataset demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework. The code is available at https://github.com/ICTMCG/FTT-ACL23.

The life trajectories of notable people have been studied to pinpoint the times and places of significant events such as birth, death, education, marriage, competition, work, speeches, scientific discoveries, artistic achievements, and battles. Understanding how these individuals interact with others provides valuable insights for broader research into human dynamics. However, the scarcity of trajectory data in terms of volume, density, and inter-person interactions, limits relevant studies from being comprehensive and interactive. We mine millions of biography pages from Wikipedia and tackle the generalization problem stemming from the variety and heterogeneity of the trajectory descriptions. Our ensemble model COSMOS, which combines the idea of semi-supervised learning and contrastive learning, achieves an F1 score of 85.95%. For this task, we also create a hand-curated dataset, WikiLifeTrajectory, consisting of 8,852 (person, time, location) triplets as ground truth. Besides, we perform an empirical analysis on the trajectories of 8,272 historians to demonstrate the validity of the extracted results. To facilitate the research on trajectory extractions and help the analytical studies to construct grand narratives, we make our code, the million-level extracted trajectories, and the WikiLifeTrajectory dataset publicly available.