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My fellow Singaporeans, I've said before that the world is changing in ways that will
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disadvantage small open economies like Singapore. Some had previously questioned this assessment,
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but the recent liberation day announcement by the US leaves no room for doubt.
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It marks a seismic change in the global order. The era of rules-based globalisation and
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free trade is over. We are entering a new phase, one that is more arbitrary, protectionist,
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and dangerous. For decades, the US was the bedrock for the free market economies of the world.
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It championed free trade and led efforts to build a multilateral trading system,
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anchored by clear rules and norms, where countries could achieve win-win benefits through trade.
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This WTO system brought unprecedented stability and prosperity to the world,
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and to the US itself to be clear the system is not perfect. Singapore and many others have long
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called for reform to update the rules and to make the system better. But what the US is doing now
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is not reform. It is abandoning the entire system it had created. Its new approach of reciprocal
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tariffs, country by country, is a complete rejection of the WTO framework. The US has placed
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Singapore in the lowest-based tier with a tariff of 10%. So the direct impact on us may be limited
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for now. But there are wider and more profound consequences. If other countries adopt the same
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approach as the US, abandoning the WTO and trading only on their own preferred terms, country by
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country, it will spell trouble for all nations, especially small ones like Singapore.
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We risk being squeezed out, marginalized, and left behind. We can also expect a strong global
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response to America's tariffs. Singapore has decided not to impose retaliatory tariffs,
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but other countries may not exercise the same restraint. The likelihood of a full-blown global
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trade war is growing. The impact of the higher tariffs allows the uncertainty of what other
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countries may do next, worldwide, heavily on the global economy. International trade and
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investments will suffer and global growth will slow. Singapore will take a bigger hit than others,
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because of our heavy reliance on trade. The last time the world experienced something like this
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was in the 1930s. Trade wars escalated into armed conflict and eventually the Second World War.
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No one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months or years.
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But we must be clear-eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world.
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Global institutions are getting weaker. International norms are eroding.
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More and more countries will act based on narrow self-interest and use force or pressure to get
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their way. This is the harsh reality of our world today. We will stay vigilant. We will build up
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our capabilities. We will strengthen our network of partnerships with like-minded countries.
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We are more ready than many other countries with our reserves, our cohesion, and our resolve.
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But we must brace ourselves for more shocks to come. The global calm and stability we once knew
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will not return anytime soon. We cannot expect that the rules which protected small states
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will still hold. I am sharing this with you so that we can all be mentally prepared,
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so that we will not be caught off guard. Let us not be lulled into complacency.
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The risks are real and the stakes are high. The road ahead will be harder.
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But if we stay resolute and united, Singapore will continue to hold its own in this troubled world.
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