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AI Predictions for 2030
Medical, Smartphones, Programming, Jobs, Greater AGIs
Medical: AI will be used extensively to provide second opinions on non-trivial diagnoses. Human judgment and oversight will still be required, but AI can help reduce human blind spots.
Smartphones: Every smartphone will come equipped with a small LLM (Large Language Model). Recent models, such as the Gemma 4 E2B with MTP (Multi-Token Prediction), already run efficiently (output of >10 words per second) on most devices. These local models will be able to provide valuable emergency information even when the internet is down.
Programming: Over 95% of new software code will be written by AI. However, this is unlikely to reach 100%, as a developer manually editing code can often be faster than prompting an AI. Professional software engineers will remain essential to verify and manage codebases long-term.
Jobs: AI will not reach full human parity by this time, meaning it cannot serve as a drop-in replacement for humans. Consequently, human workers will still be widely required.
Greater AGIs: While Lesser AGIs^1, which are economically valuable but incapable of full human parity, will be present, Greater AGIs are unlikely to emerge by 2030.
(Nevertheless, it is still useful to begin considering how we might find common ground with such future entities.)
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