Correction (2026-10-03). The claim below that the merged adapter lands "within 0.001-0.004 of base" holds for vulnerability only. Deletion: merged 0.129 vs base 0.144 (specialist 0.113). sensitive_publication: merged 0.104 vs base 0.134 (inside the specialist range 0.100-0.105). The merge is PEFT linear (factor-wise scaling, so the merged update has cross terms no specialist trained); the explanation "continuous vs binary targets" is withdrawn until a combination_type="cat" test is run. At n=20 per group only sensitive_publication separates from base. Details, raw files and scripts: correction note. Caught by dipankarsarkar.

prob-vulnerability-qwen25-lora

LoRA specialist for estimating P(harmful outcome | causal chain) for the vulnerability risk group, one piece of a Risk(X|C) = P(harmful Y|X,C) x Impact(harmful Y) estimation pipeline. Given an initiating action, a causal chain of intermediate steps, and a terminal outcome, predicts {"probability_estimate": float, "probability_reasoning": str}.

Result

Trained on 180 vulnerability-group chains (Qwen2.5-7B, LoRA r=16/alpha=32, 3 epochs). Real training happened (loss 1.5-1.6 -> 0.4-0.5, mean_token_accuracy 0.66-0.68 -> 0.85-0.88), and this specialist genuinely beat its own zero-shot baseline on a 20-record held-out eval (n=5 samples/record, mean-of-samples prediction, MAE against gold):

MAE within 0.15 absolute error
Base model, zero-shot 0.098 15/20
This specialist 0.085 15-17/20

This task was not already at ceiling zero-shot (unlike a same-day decomposition-classifier tune, EXP-045, where the base model hit 100% before any training) -- the gain here is real, not an artifact of an easy task.

Known limitation: don't use the merged variant for this group

An equal-weight linear merge of this specialist with the deletion and sensitive_publication specialists (see prob-merged) gives back almost all of this gain -- the merged adapter lands within 0.001-0.004 MAE of the unspecialized base model. Deploy this specialist directly, routed by risk_group, not the merged adapter.

Source

Full write-up (EXP-046), raw eval JSON (before/specialist/merged), and SFT train/eval splits: sipa-os-governance/AI_EXPERIMENTS/EXP-046__probability-estimator-specialist-per-group-merge-regresses.md

Trained with TRL + PEFT.

Framework versions

  • PEFT 0.21.0
  • TRL: 1.14.0
  • Transformers: 5.17.0
  • Pytorch: 2.14.0
  • Datasets: 5.0.1
  • Tokenizers: 0.23.2
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