yonaitay/MLB_MVP_ANALYSIS

⚾ MLB MVP Analysis (2015–2024)

This project explores a decade of MLB player performance to uncover the statistical patterns behind MVP-level seasons, using metrics such as WAR, OPS, and long-term consistency. Building this as a full presentation required substantial effort — from deep data cleaning and model tuning to the challenge of transforming dense baseball analytics into clear, engaging visual explanations.

📁 Files

• cleaned_batting_stats.csv – cleaned and structured dataset
• EDA_DATASET_MLB_MVP_REAL.ipynb – full analytical notebook
• images/ – exported visualizations used throughout the project

Dataset source:
🔗 https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/josuefernandezc/mlb-hitting-data-2015-2024

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📊 Visualizations

1️⃣ Distribution of OPS After Cleaning

This graph shows the distribution of OPS across all players, forming a near-normal curve around league-average performance. It clearly highlights the separation between elite hitters and the general population.

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2️⃣ Highest WAR Each Year

This chart identifies the WAR leader in every season — the players who generated the most complete all-around value. These names consistently overlap with real-world MVP discussions due to WAR’s strong relationship with team impact.

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3️⃣ Highest OPS Each Year

This figure highlights the top OPS hitter each season, showcasing players with exceptional offensive dominance. High OPS leaders frequently appear at the center of MVP voting due to their elite combination of power and on-base skill.

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4️⃣ Most Consistent Players (WAR Variation)

This graph ranks the league’s most stable performers using WAR standard deviation. Low variation reflects reliability — the ability to deliver strong value year after year without major fluctuations.

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5️⃣ WAR Trajectory of Emerging Players

📈 This visualization tracks improving players and highlights those whose WAR is rising sharply over time. Steep upward trends often indicate breakout candidates and future MVP potential.

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6️⃣ Top 5 MVP Candidates – AL 2023

A data-driven ranking of the American League’s top performers in 2023, based solely on measurable production rather than narrative or media bias.

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7️⃣ Top 5 MVP Candidates – NL 2023

This chart applies the same objective scoring model to National League players, revealing the strongest statistical seasons of 2023.

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8️⃣ MVP Prediction Accuracy (2015–2024)

To evaluate the model, each season’s predicted MVP was compared against the real winner:

• 🟢 Green = Correct prediction
• 🔴 Red = Incorrect prediction

Across 20 league-season predictions, the model correctly identified the MVP in 45% of cases (9/20).
This accuracy demonstrates that while metrics such as WAR and OPS strongly influence outcomes, MVP voting is still significantly shaped by human factors — storylines, momentum, team success, and media perception.

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