Datasets:

skyyyyks
/

demonstration_glm52

row_index int64 1 6.98k	messages listlengths 2 2	label_name stringclasses 9 values	label_bucket int64 0 8	delta float64 -0.8 0.74	value float64 -0.84 0.68	anchor float64 0 1	target_p float64 0 1	market_id stringlengths 6 26	event_id stringlengths 5 17 ⌀	t int64 1.75B 1.78B	output_text stringlengths 21 3.09k
118	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B2	2	0.025	-0.021929	0.57	0.595	562636	32200	1,752,732,008	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline predicts a +0.047 bounce from the 0.570 price. The key question is whether the news provides a catalyst for Solana to exceed or fall short of that reversion. Scanning the headlines, the Trump crypto week item mentions political momentum but lacks Solana-specific or immediate mark...
109	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B7	7	0.115	0.074133	0.765	0.88	562660	30353	1,752,732,008	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts +0.041 from the current 0.765 price. The key question is whether the headlines give XRP a reason to outrun or fall short of that baseline. Scanning the 33 headlines, most are irrelevant noise: Malaysian palm oil prices, Ukraine casualty reports, Qantas data brea...
122	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B6	6	0.07	0.02276	0.56	0.63	562634	32198	1,752,764,409	<reasoning> The baseline mean-reversion model already predicts a +0.047 move from the current 0.560 price. The question is whether the news gives a reason to expect a remainder above or below that. The headlines are dominated by U.S. macroeconomic data: June retail sales beating forecasts, initial jobless claims falli...
99	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B8	8	0.195	0.140003	0.3105	0.5055	557828	30353	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The baseline already prices in a +0.055 reversion. The question is whether the news justifies a remainder beyond that. Most headlines are macro noise: oil prices, Middle East strikes, Fed rhetoric, Treasury flows, Netflix earnings, and broad equity index closes. None touch XRP specifically. The Dollar Inde...
1	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B3	3	0.03	-0.01211	0.725	0.755	557925	30363	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts a +0.042 move, so the task is to judge whether the headlines justify deviating from that. Reviewing the 28 candidates, most are irrelevant: the Syria strike, Moscow air defense, oil prices, Kashmir designation, and Netflix earnings have no direct bearing on Bitco...
29	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B5	5	0.0725	0.014768	0.2225	0.295	558317	30320	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts a +0.058 move from the current price of 0.223, capturing the typical pullback. The forecaster's job is to assess whether the headlines justify a remainder above or below this. Looking at the headlines, the most relevant cluster concerns U.S. crypto legislation: ...
110	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B6	6	0.08	0.039133	0.765	0.845	562634	32198	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The baseline predicts +0.041 from mean reversion alone. The question is whether the news gives a reason for Bitcoin to outperform that mechanical drift. Looking at the headlines, several touch crypto directly: the House passing the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and three cryptocurrency bills including an an...
135	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B8	8	0.125	0.079004	0.6	0.725	562643	32203	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already captures +0.046 from price alone. The question is whether the headlines give Bitcoin a reason to outrun that baseline. Most headlines are irrelevant to BTC: oil prices, Syria strikes, Kashmir designations, Netflix earnings, Russian air defense, and stock market closings ...
27	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B7	7	0.105	0.045169	0.155	0.26	562653	32205	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The baseline predicts a +0.060 reversion from the current 0.155 price. To determine the remainder, we must assess whether the incoming news provides a catalyst for Solana to outperform or underperform this mean-reversion. Reviewing the headlines, the dominant theme is U.S. legislative action on cryptocurre...
70	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B7	7	0.095	0.046361	0.515	0.61	562659	30321	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts a +0.049 move from the current 0.515 price. The forecaster must determine if the news provides a catalyst for Ethereum to exceed this baseline. Most headlines are irrelevant to ETH. Geopolitical items (Syria strikes, Moscow air defenses) and macro data (oil pric...
18	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B7	7	0.11	0.061361	0.515	0.625	562683	30320	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts +0.049, so the task is to judge whether the news justifies an additional move. Scanning the headlines, the clear relevant cluster is the U.S. House passing three cryptocurrency bills, including the CLARITY Act and an anti-CBDC surveillance bill. These are sector-...
61	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B6	6	0.085	0.026413	0.195	0.28	563306	32414	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The baseline predicts a +0.059 reversion bounce from 0.195. For the remainder, I must determine if the headlines give Bitcoin a reason to outrun or fall short of that expected mean-reversion. Examining the candidates: - House Passes CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, anti-CBDC bill, and "three cryptocurrency bills" ...
26	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B5	5	0.07	0.019651	0.46	0.53	564092	32720	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts a +0.050 move from the current price of 0.460 to 0.510. The forecaster's job is to assess whether the news provides a reason to expect a remainder above or below that. Looking at the headlines, the most relevant for this Bitcoin market are the cluster of U.S. Ho...
65	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B6	6	0.085	0.032009	0.375	0.46	564099	32723	1,752,789,608	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline predicts a +0.053 move, bringing the market to roughly 0.428. The task is to evaluate whether the headlines justify a remainder above or below this baseline. Scanning the 28 candidates, the relevant cluster concerns U.S. crypto legislation. The House passed the CLARITY Act, the ...
233	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B6	6	0.085	0.026413	0.195	0.28	564445	32806	1,752,804,008	<reasoning> The baseline mean-reversion already predicts a +0.059 bounce from the 0.195 price. The question is whether the headlines justify outrunning that reversion. Scanning the candidates, nearly all are irrelevant: Japanese CPI, Brazilian diplomacy, Meta poaching AI experts, Syrian ceasefires, Asian market opens,...
134	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B3	3	0.048	-0.008333	0.2675	0.3155	555449	28648	1,752,807,608	<reasoning> Most headlines concern Asian markets, North Korea, or unrelated domestic matters—irrelevant here. The three pertinent headlines are: "Trump requests release of Epstein grand jury testimony," "U.S. Attorney General: We are prepared to have the court release grand jury records tomorrow," and "Poll: Most Ameri...
2,929	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B3	3	0.03	-0.013509	0.68	0.71	561415	31571	1,752,807,608	<reasoning> The baseline predicts +0.044 mean reversion. The key question is whether the news justifies exceeding that. Three headlines bear on this market: "Trump requests release of Epstein grand jury testimony," "U.S. Attorney General: We are prepared to have the court release grand jury records tomorrow," and "Poll...
111	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B8	8	0.2285	0.168047	0.135	0.3635	562641	32203	1,752,850,808	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts a +0.060 move from the current 0.135 price, capturing the natural bounce from the low. The forecaster's job is to assess whether the headlines justify a further push above that. Reviewing the 50 headlines, the vast majority are irrelevant to this BTC/USDT 1-minu...
60	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B6	6	0.075	0.029625	0.62	0.695	563302	32414	1,752,850,808	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline predicts a +0.045 move from the current price of 0.620. I need to determine if the news justifies an additional push above or below that. Scanning the headlines, the most relevant item is: "Total crypto market cap breaks $4 trillion." This signals broad crypto momentum, which co...
23	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B3	3	0.045	-0.013587	0.195	0.24	564095	32723	1,752,850,808	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline already predicts a +0.059 jump, so the question is whether the news gives Bitcoin a reason to overshoot or undershoot that. Scanning the headlines, the crypto-relevant items are thin: one notes total crypto market cap surpassed $4 trillion, and Fed Governor Waller cites private s...
21	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B2	2	0.015	-0.030064	0.63	0.645	560832	31382	1,752,872,409	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline predicts +0.045 from the current price of 0.630. My task is to assess the remainder—whether the news justifies outperforming or underperforming that baseline. Reviewing the headlines, nearly all are irrelevant: Shanghai Gold Exchange updates, Galaxy Digital personnel statements,...
328	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B4	4	0.05	0.005092	0.635	0.685	555820	28832	1,752,894,008	<reasoning> The market price spiked from 0.160 to 0.635 between 23:00 and 02:00, suggesting breaking news about an Israel-Syria security agreement. However, scanning the 17 headlines, none directly confirm such a deal. The most relevant Middle East items are: "Hamas: Willing to Reach Comprehensive Ceasefire Deal, But I...
6,265	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B1	1	0.015	-0.040945	0.28	0.295	518615	16770	1,752,912,008	<reasoning> The baseline already prices in a strong reversion from 0.280 to 0.336. The key question is whether headlines justify outrunning or falling short of that move. The South Korean indictment headline is directly on-market: Yoon's indictment by the special prosecution team is a necessary step toward prison sent...
6,284	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B1	1	-0.039	-0.090406	0.426	0.387	527798	20798	1,753,027,207	<reasoning> The baseline predicts +0.051 reversion from 0.426, so I must assess whether the news justifies outrunning or falling short of that. The relevant headlines concern Japan's Upper House election: "Ruling Coalition Secures Only 22 Seats" and "Ruling Coalition Loses Majority." These directly bear on Ishiba's te...
22	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B4	4	0.05	-0.005168	0.305	0.355	564092	32720	1,753,106,408	<reasoning> The baseline mean-reversion model already predicts +0.055, capturing the recovery from the midday dip back toward the 0.36 range. The forecaster's task is whether the news justifies outrunning or falling short of that reversion. Scanning the headlines, the vast majority are irrelevant to Bitcoin. Bessent's...
92	[ { "content": "You forecast prediction-market prices. On this market family prices revert: high prices tend to fall and low ones to rise, and a baseline that reads the current price alone already predicts much of the 1 hour move. That baseline's prediction is given to you in each question.\nYour job is the REMAI...	B3	3	0.045	-0.01281	0.22	0.265	564099	32723	1,753,106,408	<reasoning> The mean-reversion baseline predicts +0.058 from the current price of 0.220. The question is whether the news justifies a remainder above or below that. Scanning the headlines, most are irrelevant to Bitcoin: India's coal output, Yinhe Electronics bribery charges, Brazil's finance minister on tariffs and P...

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demonstration_glm52

Hindsight reasoning-chain demonstrations for SDFT, written by GLM-5.2 on the training share of the swmbench/swmbench jin10_attributed_filtered_en_daily rolling 70/30 split.

Each row is a prediction-market forecasting example; output_text is a worked reasoning chain that a skilled forecaster would have produced before knowing the outcome, ending in a residual bucket <answer>Bx</answer>. The writer was privately shown the realised move and instructed never to reveal it (a leak gate rejects hindsight phrasing).

Provenance

Teacher model: glm-5.2 via DashScope OpenAI-compatible endpoint, thinking disabled, temperature 0.7 (resampled at higher T on rejection).
Target: residual (raw delta minus frozen anchor-OLS fitted on w00_train), 9 quantile buckets B0..B8.
Rows: 4839 = union of all windows' train partitions (holdout backtest rows excluded).
Grain: hourly (3600s history/horizon), despite the source's "daily" filename.

Stats

with reasoning chain: 4837 / 4839 (100.0%)
bare-label fallback: 2
answer == gold bucket: 4839 / 4839 (100%)
rejects during generation: leak 16, format 12, transport 4

Fields

row_index, messages, label_name, label_bucket, delta, value, anchor, target_p, market_id, event_id, t, output_text

Generated with the GLM adaptation of examples/sdft/jin10-monthly/generate_demonstrations.py.

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