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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
true | 3/14/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21394/ | The Houthis of Yemen have been attacking surface ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait with missiles and drones for weeks now, but a new potentially important target is starting to receive increased attention by both the international community and the Houthis. A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent... | 3/15/24 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | 2/8/24 | [['2024-02-08', 0.291], ['2024-02-08', 0.07], ['2024-02-08', 0.15], ['2024-02-09', 0.1], ['2024-02-09', 0.12], ['2024-02-09', 0.15], ['2024-02-09', 0.1], ['2024-02-10', 0.1], ['2024-02-10', 0.09], ['2024-02-10', 0.05], ['2024-02-10', 0.05], ['2024-02-11', 0.05], ['2024-02-11', 0.05], ['2024-02-11', 0.05], ['2024-02-12'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor. Only sabotage and similar violent attacks (it does not have to be specifically attribut... | metaculus | 0 | 2/25/24 | 0 | 2/25/24 | 2/20/24 |
true | 6/30/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23018/ | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | 6/30/24 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | 5/2/24 | [['2024-05-02', 0.32], ['2024-05-03', 0.25], ['2024-05-03', 0.27], ['2024-05-04', 0.35], ['2024-05-04', 0.35], ['2024-05-05', 0.2], ['2024-05-05', 0.2], ['2024-05-06', 0.25], ['2024-05-06', 0.2], ['2024-05-06', 0.22], ['2024-05-07', 0.24], ['2024-05-07', 0.19], ['2024-05-08', 0.2], ['2024-05-08', 0.15], ['2024-05-09', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if before July 1, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a [warrant of arrest](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as **No** otherwise.
* Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)
* Yoav Gal... | metaculus | 0 | 6/28/24 | 0 | 6/28/24 | 6/24/24 |
true | 4/24/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21796/ | On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the ["Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the ["Protecting Americans from Foreign Adve... | 12/31/24 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | 3/8/24 | [['2024-03-08', 0.333], ['2024-03-09', 0.333], ['2024-03-09', 0.25], ['2024-03-09', 0.45], ['2024-03-10', 0.5], ['2024-03-10', 0.56], ['2024-03-10', 0.6], ['2024-03-11', 0.6], ['2024-03-11', 0.6], ['2024-03-11', 0.6], ['2024-03-12', 0.6], ['2024-03-12', 0.68], ['2024-03-12', 0.7], ['2024-03-13', 0.68], ['2024-03-13', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as *Yes* if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the US government has taken action, through an enacted law or executive order, with at least one of the following effects:
* Forces a sale of US-facing components of TikTok effective in 365 days or less relative to the date of... | metaculus | 1 | 4/24/24 | 1 | 4/24/24 | 4/4/24 |
true | 4/1/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21000/ | The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll t... | 4/18/24 | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | 1/11/24 | [['2024-01-12', 0.1], ['2024-01-12', 0.345], ['2024-01-12', 0.2], ['2024-01-12', 0.1], ['2024-01-13', 0.2], ['2024-01-14', 0.5], ['2024-01-15', 0.5], ['2024-01-16', 0.5], ['2024-01-20', 0.5], ['2024-01-26', 0.5], ['2024-01-27', 0.52], ['2024-01-28', 0.7], ['2024-01-30', 0.7], ['2024-02-01', 0.7], ['2024-02-04', 0.52], ... | null | binary | The question resolves **Yes** if the Spring 2024 [Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) shows that Biden's approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds is higher than the 35% reported in Fall 2023. If no poll is conducted in Spring 2024, or if a Biden approval ... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 4/1/24 | 3/28/24 |
true | 7/4/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24622/ | [Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title... | 7/4/24 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | 5/30/24 | [['2024-05-30', 0.25], ['2024-05-30', 0.24], ['2024-05-30', 0.6], ['2024-05-30', 0.24], ['2024-05-31', 0.24], ['2024-05-31', 0.24], ['2024-05-31', 0.3], ['2024-05-31', 0.24], ['2024-05-31', 0.14], ['2024-06-01', 0.24], ['2024-06-01', 0.3], ['2024-06-01', 0.35], ['2024-06-02', 0.25], ['2024-06-03', 0.2], ['2024-06-03', ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.
If Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as **No**.
Resolution should cite ... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 7/4/24 | 6/30/24 |
true | 9/11/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26611/ | Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.
[Gla... | 11/4/24 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | 7/29/24 | [['2024-07-29', 0.4], ['2024-07-29', 0.365], ['2024-07-31', 0.33], ['2024-07-31', 0.2], ['2024-08-01', 0.206], ['2024-08-01', 0.206], ['2024-08-01', 0.2], ['2024-08-02', 0.1], ['2024-08-02', 0.1], ['2024-08-02', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.1], ['2024-08-03',... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.
If no formal, live debates are held between Trump and Harris, this question will be **annulled**. - "Shake hands" is d... | metaculus | 1 | 9/10/24 | 1 | 9/10/24 | 8/14/24 |
true | 2/15/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21049/ | A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full infor... | 2/16/24 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | 1/13/24 | [['2024-01-13', 0.5], ['2024-01-14', 0.3], ['2024-01-14', 0.5], ['2024-01-15', 0.35], ['2024-01-18', 0.35], ['2024-01-18', 0.35], ['2024-01-20', 0.4], ['2024-01-23', 0.35], ['2024-01-26', 0.33], ['2024-02-01', 0.33], ['2024-02-11', 0.3], ['2024-02-14', 0.3], ['2024-02-14', 0.3], ['2024-02-15', 0.25], ['2024-02-15', 0.2... | null | binary | The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67759402), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of unce... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 2/15/24 | 2/1/24 |
true | 3/31/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21183/ | On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-coc... | 4/1/24 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | 1/24/24 | [['2024-01-24', 0.063], ['2024-01-24', 0.35], ['2024-01-25', 0.2], ['2024-01-25', 0.25], ['2024-01-25', 0.25], ['2024-01-26', 0.3], ['2024-01-27', 0.25], ['2024-01-27', 0.25], ['2024-01-28', 0.3], ['2024-01-28', 0.3], ['2024-01-29', 0.3], ['2024-01-29', 0.25], ['2024-01-30', 0.25], ['2024-01-30', 0.25], ['2024-01-31', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) is in Ecuadorian custody. If Adolfo Macías Villamar dies before being taken into custody this question will resolve as **No**. | metaculus | 0 | 3/21/24 | 0 | 3/21/24 | 2/26/24 |
true | 8/11/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21354/ | The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.
At the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 1... | 8/11/24 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 2/9/24 | [['2024-02-09', 0.3], ['2024-02-10', 0.17], ['2024-02-10', 0.25], ['2024-02-11', 0.14], ['2024-02-12', 0.16], ['2024-02-12', 0.25], ['2024-02-13', 0.31], ['2024-02-14', 0.25], ['2024-02-16', 0.285], ['2024-02-23', 0.25], ['2024-02-26', 0.25], ['2024-02-26', 0.285], ['2024-02-28', 0.285], ['2024-02-29', 0.285], ['2024-0... | null | binary | The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France) injures and/or kills at least one person, other than the terrorist(s), between, and inclusive of, the day of the Opening Ceremony (26 July 2024) and the day of the Closing Ceremony (11 Au... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 8/11/24 | 5/28/24 |
true | 8/10/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23760/ | The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.
The Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the elections, with more than 26% of votes on average. The two main pro-independenc... | 12/30/24 | Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024? | 5/21/24 | [['2024-05-21', 0.82], ['2024-05-21', 0.71], ['2024-05-21', 0.71], ['2024-05-21', 0.6], ['2024-05-21', 0.6], ['2024-05-21', 0.15], ['2024-05-24', 0.3], ['2024-05-26', 0.45], ['2024-05-29', 0.45], ['2024-05-31', 0.45], ['2024-05-31', 0.57], ['2024-06-01', 0.57], ['2024-06-01', 0.6], ['2024-06-02', 0.62], ['2024-06-02', ... | null | binary | This question will be defined in two possible ways:
1. Before January 1, 2025, there is a new elected President (the current one, Pere Aragonès, is in provisional functions and will cease to hold office once a new president is elected). Constitutionally, this situation would prevent elections for at least one year und... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 8/10/24 | 8/6/24 |
true | 11/6/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28000/ | The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional... | 12/1/24 | Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024? | 9/17/24 | [['2024-09-17', 0.54], ['2024-09-18', 0.52], ['2024-09-18', 0.5], ['2024-09-18', 0.5], ['2024-09-20', 0.5], ['2024-09-20', 0.54], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-10-07', 0.5], ['2024-10-07', 0.5], ['2024-11-02', 0.51], ['2024-11-07', 0.5], ['2024-11-09', 0.5], ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc. [recall posted](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed ... | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 11/6/24 | 10/26/24 |
true | 10/1/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27341/ | According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, "Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his cam... | 10/1/24 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | 8/20/24 | [['2024-08-20', 0.28], ['2024-08-20', 0.33], ['2024-08-21', 0.4], ['2024-08-21', 0.39], ['2024-08-21', 0.36], ['2024-08-21', 0.3], ['2024-08-21', 0.36], ['2024-08-22', 0.3], ['2024-08-22', 0.25], ['2024-08-23', 0.25], ['2024-08-23', 0.33], ['2024-08-23', 0.28], ['2024-08-24', 0.33], ['2024-08-24', 0.3], ['2024-08-24', ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign:
- Chris LaCivita
- Susie Wiles
If there is no such rep... | metaculus | 0 | 9/27/24 | 0 | 9/27/24 | 9/11/24 |
true | 10/31/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22146/ | US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/p... | 11/5/24 | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | 4/11/24 | [['2024-04-11', 0.45], ['2024-04-11', 0.6], ['2024-04-11', 0.75], ['2024-04-11', 0.45], ['2024-04-11', 0.3], ['2024-04-11', 0.3], ['2024-04-11', 0.1], ['2024-04-11', 0.1], ['2024-04-12', 0.23], ['2024-04-12', 0.1], ['2024-04-12', 0.1], ['2024-04-12', 0.1], ['2024-04-13', 0.23], ['2024-04-14', 0.1], ['2024-04-14', 0.1],... | null | binary | This resolves positively if 3 high quality national or international news sources (e.g. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) report that Mitt Romney has publicly endorsed the Democratic nominee... | metaculus | 0 | 4/22/24 | 0 | 4/22/24 | 4/18/24 |
true | 9/28/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23761/ | A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#varia... | 10/28/24 | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | 5/14/24 | [['2024-05-14', 0.72], ['2024-05-15', 0.68], ['2024-05-17', 0.68], ['2024-05-18', 0.72], ['2024-05-19', 0.75], ['2024-05-20', 0.73], ['2024-05-20', 0.7], ['2024-05-22', 0.71], ['2024-05-22', 0.7], ['2024-05-24', 0.69], ['2024-05-24', 0.657], ['2024-05-26', 0.66], ['2024-05-26', 0.63], ['2024-05-28', 0.63], ['2024-05-29... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, [CDC's variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a combined weighted estimate for variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 in the United States are 75% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending between May 11, 2024, and September... | metaculus | 0 | 6/27/24 | 0 | 6/27/24 | 5/31/24 |
true | 3/31/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21120/ | [Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigat... | 4/1/24 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | 1/23/24 | [['2024-01-23', 0.5], ['2024-01-23', 0.35], ['2024-01-24', 0.5], ['2024-01-24', 0.5], ['2024-01-25', 0.5], ['2024-01-26', 0.5], ['2024-01-26', 0.5], ['2024-01-26', 0.4], ['2024-01-27', 0.25], ['2024-01-28', 0.25], ['2024-01-28', 0.28], ['2024-01-29', 0.28], ['2024-01-29', 0.35], ['2024-01-29', 0.36], ['2024-01-30', 0.3... | null | binary | This question resolves "Yes" if, prior to April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Fani Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution in The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. (Case No. 23SC188947).
The mechanism by which Willis ceases to be attorney ... | metaculus | 0 | 3/15/24 | 0 | 3/15/24 | 3/3/24 |
true | 10/1/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26938/ | The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates... | 10/1/24 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | 8/6/24 | [['2024-08-06', 0.35], ['2024-08-06', 0.6], ['2024-08-07', 0.45], ['2024-08-07', 0.45], ['2024-08-07', 0.27], ['2024-08-08', 0.64], ['2024-08-08', 0.6], ['2024-08-09', 0.62], ['2024-08-09', 0.64], ['2024-08-09', 0.55], ['2024-08-10', 0.52], ['2024-08-10', 0.54], ['2024-08-11', 0.54], ['2024-08-11', 0.5], ['2024-08-11',... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**. - A qualifying debate must be a live, form... | metaculus | 0 | 8/21/24 | 0 | 8/21/24 | 8/11/24 |
true | 9/30/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26526/ | Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked s... | 10/1/24 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | 8/5/24 | [['2024-08-05', 0.1], ['2024-08-05', 0.3], ['2024-08-06', 0.22], ['2024-08-06', 0.25], ['2024-08-06', 0.33], ['2024-08-07', 0.25], ['2024-08-07', 0.3], ['2024-08-08', 0.25], ['2024-08-08', 0.5], ['2024-08-08', 0.5], ['2024-08-09', 0.5], ['2024-08-09', 0.5], ['2024-08-10', 0.5], ['2024-08-10', 0.5], ['2024-08-11', 0.5],... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.
The state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting t... | metaculus | 0 | 9/12/24 | 0 | 9/12/24 | 9/3/24 |
true | 5/17/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21256/ | The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers.
According to Wikipedia:
>[Tys... | 5/18/24 | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | 2/26/24 | [['2024-02-26', 0.29], ['2024-02-26', 0.42000000000000004], ['2024-02-26', 0.55], ['2024-02-26', 0.53], ['2024-02-26', 0.53], ['2024-02-26', 0.35], ['2024-02-27', 0.46], ['2024-03-02', 0.4], ['2024-03-06', 0.46], ['2024-03-11', 0.4], ['2024-03-14', 0.4], ['2024-03-16', 0.4], ['2024-03-16', 0.45], ['2024-04-06', 0.45], ... | null | binary | The question resolves Yes if Tyson Fury wins the boxing bout against Oleksandr Usyk. It will resolve No if Usyk wins or there is a draw. If there is no fight between the two boxers before May 19th, 2024, the question is annulled. | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 5/17/24 | 5/13/24 |
true | 9/30/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27203/ | According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx):
>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b)... | 9/30/24 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | 8/13/24 | [['2024-08-13', 0.08], ['2024-08-14', 0.535], ['2024-08-14', 0.435], ['2024-08-14', 0.5], ['2024-08-14', 0.08], ['2024-08-14', 0.32], ['2024-08-14', 0.32], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-15', 0.05], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15',... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024.
Either a new determination that a public health emerge... | metaculus | 0 | 9/29/24 | 0 | 9/29/24 | 8/22/24 |
true | 2/29/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21081/ | [Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert.
The first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 20... | 3/5/24 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | 1/17/24 | [['2024-01-17', 0.68], ['2024-01-17', 0.666], ['2024-01-18', 0.8], ['2024-01-18', 0.66], ['2024-01-18', 0.7], ['2024-01-19', 0.66], ['2024-01-19', 0.7], ['2024-01-19', 0.67], ['2024-01-20', 0.69], ['2024-01-20', 0.75], ['2024-01-20', 0.75], ['2024-01-21', 0.69], ['2024-01-21', 0.68], ['2024-01-21', 0.68], ['2024-01-22'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of **Dune: Part Two** as reported by its [page on Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/) is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the **Dune (2021)**. If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174... | metaculus | 1 | 2/21/24 | 1 | 2/21/24 | 2/13/24 |
true | 11/4/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24020/ | Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-bi... | 11/6/24 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | 5/22/24 | [['2024-05-25', 0.55], ['2024-05-26', 0.6], ['2024-05-26', 0.6], ['2024-05-28', 0.65], ['2024-05-28', 0.65], ['2024-05-29', 0.67], ['2024-05-29', 0.67], ['2024-05-30', 0.7], ['2024-05-30', 0.7], ['2024-05-30', 0.74], ['2024-05-30', 0.74], ['2024-05-30', 0.74], ['2024-05-30', 0.74], ['2024-05-30', 0.74], ['2024-05-30', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**. - "Shake hands" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a... | metaculus | 0 | 7/20/24 | 0 | 7/20/24 | 6/14/24 |
true | 5/19/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22390/ | The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including ... | 5/20/24 | Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024? | 4/16/24 | [['2024-04-16', 0.7], ['2024-04-16', 0.5], ['2024-04-16', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.4], ['2024-04-18', 0.4], ['2024-04-18', 0.39], ['2024-04-18', 0.43], ['2024-04-19', 0.65], ['2024-04-19', 0.62], ['2024-04-19', 0.43], ['2024-04-19', 0.35], ['2024-04-20', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has, between April 16 and May 19, 2024 (inclusive), filed as (i) "applicant" on an application for a stay and/or as (ii) "petitioner" on petition for a writ of certiorari to the United S... | metaculus | 0 | 5/9/24 | 0 | 5/9/24 | 5/5/24 |
true | 5/13/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22298/ | The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand kil... | 5/31/24 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | 4/11/24 | [['2024-04-11', 0.35], ['2024-04-12', 0.49], ['2024-04-12', 0.5], ['2024-04-12', 0.5], ['2024-04-12', 0.6], ['2024-04-13', 0.6], ['2024-04-13', 0.62], ['2024-04-13', 0.5], ['2024-04-13', 0.5], ['2024-04-14', 0.45], ['2024-04-14', 0.45], ['2024-04-14', 0.5], ['2024-04-14', 0.55], ['2024-04-15', 0.56], ['2024-04-15', 0.6... | null | binary | This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 202... | metaculus | 1 | 5/6/24 | 1 | 5/6/24 | 4/30/24 |
true | 10/1/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27713/ | On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked t... | 10/1/24 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | 8/28/24 | [['2024-08-28', 0.1], ['2024-08-28', 0.25], ['2024-08-28', 0.1], ['2024-08-29', 0.1], ['2024-08-29', 0.19], ['2024-08-29', 0.1], ['2024-08-29', 0.1], ['2024-08-29', 0.08], ['2024-08-30', 0.07], ['2024-08-30', 0.05], ['2024-08-30', 0.05], ['2024-08-30', 0.05], ['2024-08-31', 0.05], ['2024-08-31', 0.05], ['2024-08-31', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, between August 28, 2024, and September 30, 2024 (inclusive), the Japanese Defense Ministry officially states that a Chinese military aircraft has violated Japanese territorial airspace.
The question will resolve as "No" if no such violation is stated to have occurred by the Japa... | metaculus | 0 | 9/14/24 | 0 | 9/14/24 | 8/31/24 |
true | 9/30/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26530/ | According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting... | 10/1/24 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | 7/30/24 | [['2024-07-30', 0.3], ['2024-07-30', 0.43], ['2024-07-31', 0.43], ['2024-07-31', 0.41], ['2024-08-01', 0.45], ['2024-08-01', 0.36], ['2024-08-02', 0.44], ['2024-08-02', 0.4], ['2024-08-03', 0.3], ['2024-08-03', 0.34], ['2024-08-04', 0.3], ['2024-08-04', 0.3], ['2024-08-04', 0.21], ['2024-08-05', 0.1], ['2024-08-05', 0.... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.
In case the resolution source is no longer available or in the ... | metaculus | 0 | 9/6/24 | 0 | 9/6/24 | 8/6/24 |
true | 9/30/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26651/ | The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflat... | 10/1/24 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | 8/14/24 | [['2024-08-14', 0.5], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-15', 0.2], ['2024-08-15', 0.175], ['2024-08-15', 0.23], ['2024-08-16', 0.25], ['2024-08-16', 0.4], ['2024-08-16', 0.235], ['2024-08-17', 0.4], ['2024-08-17', 0.3], ['2024-08-17', 0.3], ['2024-08-18', 0.3], ['2024-08-18', 0.3], ['2024-08-19', 0.284], ['2024-08-19', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Otherwise, this... | metaculus | 0 | 8/29/24 | 0 | 8/29/24 | 8/22/24 |
true | 5/23/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20461/ | The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytime... | 1/1/27 | Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027? | 1/11/24 | [['2024-01-11', 0.12], ['2024-01-11', 0.5549999999999999], ['2024-01-11', 0.42], ['2024-01-11', 0.66], ['2024-01-12', 0.42], ['2024-01-12', 0.25], ['2024-01-12', 0.35], ['2024-01-13', 0.35], ['2024-01-16', 0.35], ['2024-01-19', 0.35], ['2024-01-19', 0.25], ['2024-01-20', 0.31], ['2024-01-20', 0.24], ['2024-01-21', 0.24... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 U.S.- or U.S.-allied-designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise. One example of a past article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](... | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 5/23/24 | 3/30/24 |
true | 9/3/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26543/ | In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is e... | 1/1/27 | Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning? | 7/30/24 | [['2024-07-30', 0.5], ['2024-07-31', 0.5], ['2024-08-01', 0.5], ['2024-08-08', 0.62], ['2024-08-08', 0.664], ['2024-08-13', 0.73], ['2024-08-14', 0.78], ['2024-08-14', 0.716], ['2024-08-15', 0.716], ['2024-08-16', 0.716], ['2024-08-21', 0.74], ['2024-08-21', 0.8], ['2024-08-22', 0.8], ['2024-08-22', 0.8], ['2024-08-26'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, credible sources report that a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) has issued a ruling that:
- Strikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of any Clean Air Act regulations promulgated by... | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 9/3/24 | 8/12/24 |
true | 9/15/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27024/ | According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):
>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghazia... | 10/2/24 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | 8/6/24 | [['2024-08-06', 0.5], ['2024-08-07', 0.3], ['2024-08-08', 0.1], ['2024-08-09', 0.183], ['2024-08-10', 0.09], ['2024-08-11', 0.183], ['2024-08-11', 0.237], ['2024-08-11', 0.1], ['2024-08-11', 0.1], ['2024-08-11', 0.1], ['2024-08-11', 0.1], ['2024-08-11', 0.1], ['2024-08-12', 0.1], ['2024-08-13', 0.1], ['2024-08-13', 0.1... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:
- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.
- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.
- Other [credible sources](h... | metaculus | 0 | 9/14/24 | 0 | 9/14/24 | 9/5/24 |
true | 4/2/24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19741/ | Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.c... | 4/3/24 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | 2/15/24 | [['2024-02-15', 0.33], ['2024-02-16', 0.3], ['2024-02-16', 0.25], ['2024-02-16', 0.38], ['2024-02-17', 0.38], ['2024-02-17', 0.4], ['2024-02-17', 0.4], ['2024-02-18', 0.38], ['2024-02-18', 0.33], ['2024-02-18', 0.39], ['2024-02-19', 0.39], ['2024-02-19', 0.4], ['2024-02-20', 0.4], ['2024-02-20', 0.38], ['2024-02-20', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 4, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Macky Sall has stepped down from the office of president of Senegal. * This question requires Sall to acknowledge the end of his presidency or to otherwise comply with the end ... | metaculus | 1 | 3/28/24 | 1 | 3/28/24 | 3/18/24 |
true | 4/3/24 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-0902163ce0f9 | Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on Apr 03, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET | 4/3/24 | Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on Apr 03, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET | 2/17/24 | [['2024-04-03', 0.9998810095902615], ['2024-03-15', 0.8244329273332546], ['2024-02-24', 0.8219804511222281], ['2024-02-17', 0.8204941339652166], ['2024-02-17', 0.7999999999999998], ['2024-02-17', 0.7999999999999998], ['2024-02-17', 0.7191011235955056]] | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 4/3/24 | 1 | 4/3/24 | 3/15/24 |
true | 8/21/24 | https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/will-will-stancil-win-the-election | Will Stancil: Well it's out there now! Yep, I'm running for Minnesota House District 61A. More info very soon. This campaign won't be conducted on Twitter, but if you like what I'm generally about, or like metro planning and dislike far-right extremism, here you go: | 8/21/24 | Will Will Stancil win the election for Minnesota House District 61A? | 2/22/24 | [['2024-08-21', 0.010000000000000007], ['2024-08-18', 0.010816867772923289], ['2024-08-15', 0.009704802590523112], ['2024-08-15', 0.010007724674970768], ['2024-08-14', 0.010077986470404181], ['2024-08-14', 0.010592457953056656], ['2024-08-14', 0.010592457953056656], ['2024-08-14', 0.010000000000000004], ['2024-08-14', ... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 8/21/24 | 0 | 8/21/24 | 7/15/24 |
true | 4/13/24 | https://manifold.markets/ProjectVictory/will-mistral-ai-release-a-new-publi | Resolves Yes if any new open models are released by Mistral AI before June. A new model appears on | 4/13/24 | Will Mistral AI release a new open model before June 1st 2024? | 1/19/24 | [['2024-04-13', 0.9873078059755961], ['2024-04-13', 0.9842975885138631], ['2024-04-12', 0.9842510737029223], ['2024-04-12', 0.9893027949445738], ['2024-04-12', 0.991083122660304], ['2024-04-12', 0.9914476570607215], ['2024-04-12', 0.9914476570607215], ['2024-04-12', 0.9914460843361274], ['2024-04-12', 0.989433944263984... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 4/13/24 | 1 | 4/13/24 | 3/26/24 |
true | 3/23/24 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-2958880030c3 | Resolves N/A if the 2024 Kansas Republican presidential primary was cancaled | 3/23/24 | Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Kansas Republican presidential primary? | 1/17/24 | [['2024-03-23', 0.9996027602932764], ['2024-03-20', 0.9901239491265302], ['2024-03-20', 0.9893641380296381], ['2024-03-20', 0.9786312011015506], ['2024-03-06', 0.8475562624240806], ['2024-02-18', 0.7811660536728546], ['2024-02-04', 0.780081627552695], ['2024-02-04', 0.7501892441730402], ['2024-02-04', 0.649566124405345... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 3/23/24 | 1 | 3/23/24 | 1/30/24 |
true | 8/12/24 | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-more-than-100-people-die-due-t | Not applicable/available for this question. | 8/12/24 | Will more than 100 people in the US die due to civil unrest in the next month? | 7/13/24 | [['2024-08-12', 0.01000000000000001], ['2024-08-12', 0.011173316719982711], ['2024-08-11', 0.009999999999999995], ['2024-08-11', 0.01634175157180008], ['2024-08-10', 0.017427470204439126], ['2024-08-10', 0.016737082563471953], ['2024-08-10', 0.02048070172843616], ['2024-08-10', 0.027766329563459962], ['2024-08-07', 0.0... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 8/12/24 | 0 | 8/12/24 | 7/30/24 |
true | 5/8/24 | https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-democrats-vote-to-keep-mike-jo | When Kevin McCarthy was removed as Speaker of the House, it was voted in favor by 208 Democrats and 8 Republicans, with 0 Democrats and 210 Republicans opposed. There is reporting that centrist Democrats would not do this if there is a motion to vacate against the current Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. Will Democr... | 5/8/24 | If there is a vote to remove Mike Johnson as speaker, will House Democrats save him? | 2/23/24 | [['2024-05-08', 0.99], ['2024-05-08', 0.9864733448184302], ['2024-05-08', 0.9742167547474103], ['2024-05-08', 0.9481239034154803], ['2024-05-06', 0.9228034747567201], ['2024-05-04', 0.9236163203981529], ['2024-05-03', 0.9415610435005908], ['2024-05-03', 0.9415610435005908], ['2024-05-03', 0.9415610435005908], ['2024-05... | ['https://www.axios.com/2024/02/21/democrats-mike-johnson-motion-vacate-gottheimer'] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 5/8/24 | 1 | 5/8/24 | 5/4/24 |
true | 3/11/24 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-ethereum-eth-price-surpass-400-7050de6df7ed | Not applicable/available for this question. | 3/11/24 | Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,000 before the end of June 2024? | 1/13/24 | [['2024-03-11', 0.9992725196839707], ['2024-03-11', 0.9945227793374732], ['2024-03-11', 0.9917849069228231], ['2024-03-11', 0.9917870559730735], ['2024-03-11', 0.989072971275232], ['2024-03-11', 0.8923817492767468], ['2024-03-11', 0.9051001370365004], ['2024-03-10', 0.8842375158087451], ['2024-03-10', 0.869224521729845... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 3/11/24 | 1 | 3/11/24 | 2/16/24 |
true | 8/21/24 | https://manifold.markets/MattLashofSullivan/if-biden-drops-out-will-republicans | Any Republicans, anywhere in the country, within 30 days. Resolves 30 days after Biden drops (assuming he does). If Biden drops I will update the close date to the final. If Biden does not drop, will resolve N/A. | 8/21/24 | If Biden drops out will Republicans sue to keep him on the ballot? | 7/19/24 | [['2024-08-21', 0.010343773175942698], ['2024-08-21', 0.02671586838638632], ['2024-08-20', 0.031523167248550095], ['2024-08-20', 0.03265137806592176], ['2024-08-19', 0.033238032716096384], ['2024-08-19', 0.048416601625163605], ['2024-08-19', 0.05000000000000003], ['2024-08-15', 0.07999999999999999], ['2024-08-15', 0.07... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 8/21/24 | 0 | 8/21/24 | 8/17/24 |
true | 8/29/24 | https://manifold.markets/AndrewHartman/will-mike-johnson-face-a-recall-cha | The reporting on Mike Johnson's impending budget deal (likely to land after another brief continuing resolution) suggests he's going to end up with a fairly similar deal to what his ousted predecessor had proposed. While he does intend for it to be passed via something vaguely resembling normal order (i.e. as a set of ... | 8/29/24 | Will the House vote on removing Mike Johnson as Speaker as a result of his proposed budget deal? | 1/23/24 | [['2024-08-29', 0.017113937872548442], ['2024-08-24', 0.029108032868658668], ['2024-08-24', 0.04450007291705985], ['2024-08-22', 0.04450007291705985], ['2024-08-13', 0.04832173033721143], ['2024-08-13', 0.08804669023613002], ['2024-08-13', 0.15339433663131347], ['2024-07-21', 0.18169348725315665], ['2024-05-24', 0.1838... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 8/29/24 | 0 | 8/29/24 | 3/6/24 |
true | 11/5/24 | https://manifold.markets/sanyero/will-trump-copy-reagans-missed-me-s | After his assassination attempt, Reagan famously had his assistants pop balloons in the audience during his rallies so he could nonchalantly reply "missed me", and continue with his speech. This was done during multiple rallies and proved to be extremely popular among the public. Video: Will Trump copy this stunt at l... | 11/5/24 | Will Trump copy Reagan's "missed me" stunt in a future rally? | 7/14/24 | [['2024-11-05', 0.015774363602973834], ['2024-11-05', 0.018977075762096746], ['2024-11-05', 0.018904534176505696], ['2024-11-05', 0.018689510162229403], ['2024-11-05', 0.018752288475471703], ['2024-11-05', 0.01868109988184314], ['2024-11-05', 0.01809280730128759], ['2024-11-05', 0.017437267059882113], ['2024-11-05', 0.... | [] | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 11/5/24 | 0 | 11/5/24 | 8/28/24 |
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