is_resolved bool 2
classes | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | url stringlengths 37 105 | background stringlengths 20 3.2k | date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 24 221 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | community_predictions stringlengths 323 165k | extracted_urls nullclasses 11
values | question_type stringclasses 2
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 2.21k | data_source stringclasses 4
values | resolution float64 0 1 | sampled_retrieval_date stringlengths 10 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
true | 2024-04-02 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19741/ | Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.c... | 2024-04-03 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | 2024-02-15 | [['2024-02-15', 0.33], ['2024-02-16', 0.3], ['2024-02-16', 0.25], ['2024-02-16', 0.38], ['2024-02-17', 0.38], ['2024-02-17', 0.4], ['2024-02-17', 0.4], ['2024-02-18', 0.38], ['2024-02-18', 0.33], ['2024-02-18', 0.39], ['2024-02-19', 0.39], ['2024-02-19', 0.4], ['2024-02-20', 0.4], ['2024-02-20', 0.38], ['2024-02-20', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 4, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Macky Sall has stepped down from the office of president of Senegal. * This question requires Sall to acknowledge the end of his presidency or to otherwise comply with the end ... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-03-13 |
true | 2024-08-11 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21486/ | As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as ... | 2024-08-12 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | 2024-04-03 | [['2024-04-03', 0.05], ['2024-04-04', 0.1], ['2024-04-04', 0.15], ['2024-04-04', 0.33], ['2024-04-05', 0.2], ['2024-04-07', 0.2], ['2024-04-07', 0.1], ['2024-04-07', 0.1], ['2024-04-08', 0.1], ['2024-04-08', 0.1], ['2024-04-09', 0.1], ['2024-04-09', 0.15], ['2024-04-11', 0.14], ['2024-04-12', 0.15], ['2024-05-07', 0.15... | null | binary | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 21 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#defin... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-04-28 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26530/ | According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting... | 2024-10-01 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | 2024-07-30 | [['2024-07-30', 0.3], ['2024-07-30', 0.43], ['2024-07-31', 0.43], ['2024-07-31', 0.41], ['2024-08-01', 0.45], ['2024-08-01', 0.36], ['2024-08-02', 0.44], ['2024-08-02', 0.4], ['2024-08-03', 0.3], ['2024-08-03', 0.34], ['2024-08-04', 0.3], ['2024-08-04', 0.3], ['2024-08-04', 0.21], ['2024-08-05', 0.1], ['2024-08-05', 0.... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.
In case the resolution source is no longer available or in the ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-04 |
true | 2024-02-16 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21050/ | A by-election is expected to take place on 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood. This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Con... | 2024-02-16 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ? | 2024-01-13 | [['2024-01-14', 0.07], ['2024-01-14', 0.28500000000000003], ['2024-01-14', 0.5], ['2024-01-15', 0.5], ['2024-01-18', 0.5], ['2024-01-18', 0.5], ['2024-01-18', 0.45], ['2024-01-20', 0.5], ['2024-01-23', 0.5], ['2024-02-01', 0.51], ['2024-02-11', 0.5], ['2024-02-13', 0.51], ['2024-02-14', 0.51], ['2024-02-15', 0.25], ['2... | null | binary | The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of uncertainty or... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-02-01 |
true | 2024-09-22 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27312/ | The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics.
... | 2024-09-29 | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | 2024-08-18 | [['2024-08-18', 0.61], ['2024-08-18', 0.66], ['2024-08-18', 0.555], ['2024-08-18', 0.54], ['2024-08-18', 0.62], ['2024-08-18', 0.66], ['2024-08-18', 0.66], ['2024-08-18', 0.5], ['2024-08-18', 0.72], ['2024-08-18', 0.5], ['2024-08-19', 0.6], ['2024-08-19', 0.67], ['2024-08-19', 0.6], ['2024-08-20', 0.67], ['2024-08-21',... | null | binary | The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular, accounts of the 2024 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 120 losses for 2024, this question resolves as *... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-08-24 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26938/ | The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates... | 2024-10-01 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-06 | [['2024-08-06', 0.35], ['2024-08-06', 0.6], ['2024-08-07', 0.45], ['2024-08-07', 0.45], ['2024-08-07', 0.27], ['2024-08-08', 0.64], ['2024-08-08', 0.6], ['2024-08-09', 0.62], ['2024-08-09', 0.64], ['2024-08-09', 0.55], ['2024-08-10', 0.52], ['2024-08-10', 0.54], ['2024-08-11', 0.54], ['2024-08-11', 0.5], ['2024-08-11',... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**. - A qualifying debate must be a live, form... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-17 |
true | 2024-05-22 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21774/ | Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/17642948311... | 2024-11-04 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | 2024-03-06 | [['2024-03-05', 0.99], ['2024-03-05', 0.9450000000000001], ['2024-03-06', 0.9], ['2024-03-06', 0.5], ['2024-03-06', 0.8], ['2024-03-06', 0.75], ['2024-03-06', 0.75], ['2024-03-06', 0.55], ['2024-03-06', 0.5], ['2024-03-06', 0.55], ['2024-03-06', 0.55], ['2024-03-06', 0.75], ['2024-03-06', 0.5], ['2024-03-06', 0.52], ['... | null | binary | This question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley announces that she will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
If Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee, this question will be annulled. | metaculus | 1 | 2024-04-20 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26651/ | The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflat... | 2024-10-01 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-14 | [['2024-08-14', 0.5], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-15', 0.2], ['2024-08-15', 0.175], ['2024-08-15', 0.23], ['2024-08-16', 0.25], ['2024-08-16', 0.4], ['2024-08-16', 0.235], ['2024-08-17', 0.4], ['2024-08-17', 0.3], ['2024-08-17', 0.3], ['2024-08-18', 0.3], ['2024-08-18', 0.3], ['2024-08-19', 0.284], ['2024-08-19', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Otherwise, this... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-01 |
true | 2024-07-31 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24034/ | Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in ... | 2024-08-01 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | 2024-05-18 | [['2024-05-18', 0.6], ['2024-05-19', 0.475], ['2024-05-19', 0.5], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-20', 0.35], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-21', 0.62], ['2024-05-22', 0.5], ['2024-05-22', 0.5], ['2024-05-22', 0.5], ['2024-05-23', 0.5], ['2024-05-23', 0.5], ['2024-05-23', 0.... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
- The Philippines r... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-06-30 |
true | 2024-05-19 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22390/ | The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including ... | 2024-05-20 | Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024? | 2024-04-16 | [['2024-04-16', 0.7], ['2024-04-16', 0.5], ['2024-04-16', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.57], ['2024-04-17', 0.4], ['2024-04-18', 0.4], ['2024-04-18', 0.39], ['2024-04-18', 0.43], ['2024-04-19', 0.65], ['2024-04-19', 0.62], ['2024-04-19', 0.43], ['2024-04-19', 0.35], ['2024-04-20', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has, between April 16 and May 19, 2024 (inclusive), filed as (i) "applicant" on an application for a stay and/or as (ii) "petitioner" on petition for a writ of certiorari to the United S... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-05-05 |
true | 2024-03-08 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21182/ | On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-coc... | 2024-03-31 | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | 2024-01-24 | [['2024-01-24', 0.27], ['2024-01-24', 0.59], ['2024-01-25', 0.64], ['2024-01-25', 0.6], ['2024-01-25', 0.55], ['2024-01-25', 0.6], ['2024-01-26', 0.6], ['2024-01-26', 0.56], ['2024-01-26', 0.56], ['2024-01-27', 0.56], ['2024-01-27', 0.6], ['2024-01-27', 0.61], ['2024-01-28', 0.61], ['2024-01-28', 0.61], ['2024-01-28', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 23, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, the government of Ecuador does either of the following:
* Extends the existing 60 day state of emergency at least one additional day
* Lets the existing state of emergency lapse and then declares another state of emergency | metaculus | 1 | 2024-02-18 |
true | 2024-09-03 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26543/ | In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is e... | 2027-01-01 | Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning? | 2024-07-30 | [['2024-07-30', 0.5], ['2024-07-31', 0.5], ['2024-08-01', 0.5], ['2024-08-08', 0.62], ['2024-08-08', 0.664], ['2024-08-13', 0.73], ['2024-08-14', 0.78], ['2024-08-14', 0.716], ['2024-08-15', 0.716], ['2024-08-16', 0.716], ['2024-08-21', 0.74], ['2024-08-21', 0.8], ['2024-08-22', 0.8], ['2024-08-22', 0.8], ['2024-08-26'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, credible sources report that a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) has issued a ruling that:
- Strikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of any Clean Air Act regulations promulgated by... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-08-19 |
true | 2024-05-20 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22385/ | [SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starshi... | 2024-05-20 | Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024? | 2024-04-16 | [['2024-04-16', 0.99], ['2024-04-16', 0.6], ['2024-04-16', 0.716], ['2024-04-17', 0.75], ['2024-04-17', 0.7], ['2024-04-17', 0.61], ['2024-04-17', 0.7], ['2024-04-18', 0.66], ['2024-04-18', 0.65], ['2024-04-18', 0.7], ['2024-04-19', 0.708], ['2024-04-19', 0.73], ['2024-04-19', 0.67], ['2024-04-19', 0.65], ['2024-04-20'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the fourth Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship reaches an altitude of at least 200 kilometers (approximately 124 miles) intact. * An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](ht... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-04-22 |
true | 2024-06-12 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21274/ | In early January 2024, Rep. Bill Johnson communicated to the Governor of Ohio that he would be vacating his congressional seat effective of the 21st of January 2024 in order to take up position as the 10th President of Youngstown State University.
On the 4th of January, [Governor DeWine announced ] (https://governor.... | 2024-06-12 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | 2024-01-31 | [['2024-02-01', 0.55], ['2024-02-01', 0.525], ['2024-02-07', 0.55], ['2024-02-09', 0.76], ['2024-02-09', 0.64], ['2024-02-09', 0.62], ['2024-02-11', 0.64], ['2024-02-11', 0.78], ['2024-02-11', 0.78], ['2024-02-17', 0.85], ['2024-02-18', 0.85], ['2024-02-21', 0.85], ['2024-02-24', 0.85], ['2024-02-27', 0.9], ['2024-02-2... | null | binary | This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that a person representing the Republican Party has won the special election for OH's 6th district. If popular sources are in disagreement, an Ohio State source or statement will be used. If no election is held before January 1, 2025, the question is annulled... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-04-19 |
true | 2024-05-31 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22576/ | [Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblas... | 2024-06-01 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | 2024-04-25 | [['2024-04-25', 0.4], ['2024-04-25', 0.42], ['2024-04-26', 0.25], ['2024-04-26', 0.3], ['2024-04-26', 0.3], ['2024-04-26', 0.3], ['2024-04-27', 0.27], ['2024-04-27', 0.236], ['2024-04-27', 0.236], ['2024-04-28', 0.3], ['2024-04-28', 0.231], ['2024-04-28', 0.28], ['2024-04-28', 0.3], ['2024-04-29', 0.25], ['2024-04-29',... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the coordinates 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E as under any of the following categories:
- Assessed Russian Adva... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-05-09 |
true | 2024-09-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26751/ | In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44... | 2024-09-01 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | 2024-07-31 | [['2024-07-31', 0.05], ['2024-07-31', 0.1], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.02], ['2024-08-02', 0.02], ['2024-08-02', 0.02], ['2024-08-02', 0.01], ['2024-08-02', 0.01], ['2024-08-03', 0.01], ['2024-08-03', 0.01], ['2024-08-03', 0.01], ['2024-08-03... | null | binary | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as "No". - A concession ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-06 |
true | 2024-02-15 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/ | Currently, China is not at the cutting edge of AI development (see, e.g., [Cottier, 2022](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FANYsqzPM9Yht3KM2/the-replication-and-emulation-of-gpt-3#:~:text=~October%202020%3A%20PanGu%2Dalpha%E2%80%94Chinese%20industry%2Dacademia%2Dgovernment%20collaboration%E2%80%94worse%20than%... | 2026-12-31 | Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027? | 2024-01-11 | [['2024-01-11', 0.57], ['2024-01-11', 0.735], ['2024-01-11', 0.9], ['2024-01-11', 0.72], ['2024-01-11', 0.9], ['2024-01-11', 0.76], ['2024-01-11', 0.84], ['2024-01-11', 0.85], ['2024-01-12', 0.84], ['2024-01-12', 0.76], ['2024-01-12', 0.8], ['2024-01-12', 0.76], ['2024-01-12', 0.76], ['2024-01-12', 0.65], ['2024-01-12'... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if an AI model developed by a Chinese firm, between question launch and January 1, 2027, is either:
i) Trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time.
or
ii) Top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot ... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-01-24 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27341/ | According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, "Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his cam... | 2024-10-01 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-20 | [['2024-08-20', 0.28], ['2024-08-20', 0.33], ['2024-08-21', 0.4], ['2024-08-21', 0.39], ['2024-08-21', 0.36], ['2024-08-21', 0.3], ['2024-08-21', 0.36], ['2024-08-22', 0.3], ['2024-08-22', 0.25], ['2024-08-23', 0.25], ['2024-08-23', 0.33], ['2024-08-23', 0.28], ['2024-08-24', 0.33], ['2024-08-24', 0.3], ['2024-08-24', ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign:
- Chris LaCivita
- Susie Wiles
If there is no such rep... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-05 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25749/ | On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.polit... | 2024-10-01 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | 2024-07-23 | [['2024-07-23', 0.41], ['2024-07-23', 0.35], ['2024-07-24', 0.35], ['2024-07-24', 0.33], ['2024-07-25', 0.35], ['2024-07-26', 0.35], ['2024-07-26', 0.35], ['2024-07-26', 0.33], ['2024-07-27', 0.31], ['2024-07-28', 0.31], ['2024-07-28', 0.34], ['2024-07-29', 0.31], ['2024-07-29', 0.33], ['2024-07-30', 0.31], ['2024-07-3... | null | binary | This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:
48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
If this point on the map is under ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-19 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27209/ | On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png" />
[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 2024-10-01 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-14 | [['2024-08-14', 0.15], ['2024-08-15', 0.12], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.11], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-16', 0.105], ['2024-08-16', 0.1], ['2024-08-17', 0.1], ['2024-08-17', 0.1], ['2024-08-18', 0.1], ['2024-08-18', 0.08], ['2024-08-18', 0.1], ['2024-08-19', 0.098], ['2024-08-19', 0.08], ['2024-08-19', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.
To determine whether a U... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-01 |
true | 2024-11-06 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28000/ | The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional... | 2024-12-01 | Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024? | 2024-09-17 | [['2024-09-17', 0.54], ['2024-09-18', 0.52], ['2024-09-18', 0.5], ['2024-09-18', 0.5], ['2024-09-20', 0.5], ['2024-09-20', 0.54], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-10-07', 0.5], ['2024-10-07', 0.5], ['2024-11-02', 0.51], ['2024-11-07', 0.5], ['2024-11-09', 0.5], ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc. [recall posted](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed ... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-09-26 |
true | 2024-08-11 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21354/ | The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.
At the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 1... | 2024-08-11 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 2024-02-09 | [['2024-02-09', 0.3], ['2024-02-10', 0.17], ['2024-02-10', 0.25], ['2024-02-11', 0.14], ['2024-02-12', 0.16], ['2024-02-12', 0.25], ['2024-02-13', 0.31], ['2024-02-14', 0.25], ['2024-02-16', 0.285], ['2024-02-23', 0.25], ['2024-02-26', 0.25], ['2024-02-26', 0.285], ['2024-02-28', 0.285], ['2024-02-29', 0.285], ['2024-0... | null | binary | The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France) injures and/or kills at least one person, other than the terrorist(s), between, and inclusive of, the day of the Opening Ceremony (26 July 2024) and the day of the Closing Ceremony (11 Au... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-03-16 |
true | 2024-09-11 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26611/ | Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.
[Gla... | 2024-11-04 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | 2024-07-29 | [['2024-07-29', 0.4], ['2024-07-29', 0.365], ['2024-07-31', 0.33], ['2024-07-31', 0.2], ['2024-08-01', 0.206], ['2024-08-01', 0.206], ['2024-08-01', 0.2], ['2024-08-02', 0.1], ['2024-08-02', 0.1], ['2024-08-02', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.12], ['2024-08-03', 0.1], ['2024-08-03',... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.
If no formal, live debates are held between Trump and Harris, this question will be **annulled**. - "Shake hands" is d... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-08-15 |
true | 2024-02-15 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21049/ | A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full infor... | 2024-02-16 | Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ? | 2024-01-13 | [['2024-01-13', 0.5], ['2024-01-14', 0.3], ['2024-01-14', 0.5], ['2024-01-15', 0.35], ['2024-01-18', 0.35], ['2024-01-18', 0.35], ['2024-01-20', 0.4], ['2024-01-23', 0.35], ['2024-01-26', 0.33], ['2024-02-01', 0.33], ['2024-02-11', 0.3], ['2024-02-14', 0.3], ['2024-02-14', 0.3], ['2024-02-15', 0.25], ['2024-02-15', 0.2... | null | binary | The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67759402), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of unce... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-01-25 |
true | 2024-09-15 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24321/ | From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends)
This record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing... | 2024-10-01 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | 2024-07-23 | [['2024-07-23', 0.71], ['2024-07-23', 0.35], ['2024-07-24', 0.43], ['2024-07-24', 0.47], ['2024-07-24', 0.44], ['2024-07-25', 0.43], ['2024-07-25', 0.4], ['2024-07-26', 0.43], ['2024-07-26', 0.4], ['2024-07-26', 0.393], ['2024-07-27', 0.49], ['2024-07-27', 0.26], ['2024-07-28', 0.34], ['2024-07-28', 0.29], ['2024-07-29... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ["Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)—accessible when choosing "North Atlantic" from the "Area Selection" dropdown menu at the link—shows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-02 |
true | 2024-04-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21000/ | The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll t... | 2024-04-18 | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | 2024-01-11 | [['2024-01-12', 0.1], ['2024-01-12', 0.345], ['2024-01-12', 0.2], ['2024-01-12', 0.1], ['2024-01-13', 0.2], ['2024-01-14', 0.5], ['2024-01-15', 0.5], ['2024-01-16', 0.5], ['2024-01-20', 0.5], ['2024-01-26', 0.5], ['2024-01-27', 0.52], ['2024-01-28', 0.7], ['2024-01-30', 0.7], ['2024-02-01', 0.7], ['2024-02-04', 0.52], ... | null | binary | The question resolves **Yes** if the Spring 2024 [Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) shows that Biden's approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds is higher than the 35% reported in Fall 2023. If no poll is conducted in Spring 2024, or if a Biden approval ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-01-27 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27203/ | According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx):
>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b)... | 2024-09-30 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-13 | [['2024-08-13', 0.08], ['2024-08-14', 0.535], ['2024-08-14', 0.435], ['2024-08-14', 0.5], ['2024-08-14', 0.08], ['2024-08-14', 0.32], ['2024-08-14', 0.32], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-15', 0.05], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15',... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024.
Either a new determination that a public health emerge... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-22 |
true | 2024-05-20 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22302/ | [Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-e... | 2024-05-20 | Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024? | 2024-04-16 | [['2024-04-16', 0.65], ['2024-04-16', 0.4], ['2024-04-16', 0.35], ['2024-04-17', 0.37], ['2024-04-17', 0.3], ['2024-04-17', 0.3], ['2024-04-18', 0.25], ['2024-04-18', 0.25], ['2024-04-18', 0.26], ['2024-04-18', 0.25], ['2024-04-19', 0.26], ['2024-04-19', 0.19], ['2024-04-19', 0.14], ['2024-04-19', 0.13], ['2024-04-20',... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 16, 2024, and before May 21, 2024, the price of NVIDIA stock (NVDA), in US dollars, at market close is greater than $950. Resolution will be determined according to the close value shown by [Yahoo finance historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-05-05 |
true | 2024-03-28 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21488/ | [Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-e... | 2024-03-29 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | 2024-02-22 | [['2024-02-22', 0.46], ['2024-02-22', 0.754], ['2024-02-23', 0.7], ['2024-02-23', 0.73], ['2024-02-23', 0.72], ['2024-02-24', 0.74], ['2024-02-24', 0.74], ['2024-02-24', 0.757], ['2024-02-24', 0.75], ['2024-02-25', 0.79], ['2024-02-25', 0.75], ['2024-02-25', 0.8], ['2024-02-25', 0.8], ['2024-02-26', 0.8], ['2024-02-26'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when trading closes on March 29, 2024, (after 4 PM eastern time), Nvidia is ranked fourth place or higher by market cap [according to CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/). | metaculus | 1 | 2024-03-13 |
true | 2024-05-23 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20461/ | The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytime... | 2027-01-01 | Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027? | 2024-01-11 | [['2024-01-11', 0.12], ['2024-01-11', 0.5549999999999999], ['2024-01-11', 0.42], ['2024-01-11', 0.66], ['2024-01-12', 0.42], ['2024-01-12', 0.25], ['2024-01-12', 0.35], ['2024-01-13', 0.35], ['2024-01-16', 0.35], ['2024-01-19', 0.35], ['2024-01-19', 0.25], ['2024-01-20', 0.31], ['2024-01-20', 0.24], ['2024-01-21', 0.24... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 U.S.- or U.S.-allied-designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise. One example of a past article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-03-30 |
true | 2024-03-23 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-barack-obama-make-8-or-more-tw-b4f7d9907276 | Resolves Yes if Barack Obama makes 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in Mar 2024 | 2024-03-23 | Will Barack Obama make 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in Mar 2024? | 2024-02-07 | [['2024-03-23', 0.9997829388133809], ['2024-03-23', 0.9935893352513524], ['2024-03-23', 0.9861785829292969], ['2024-03-23', 0.9521750756492048], ['2024-03-23', 0.8601967469468251], ['2024-03-22', 0.2096644507850268], ['2024-03-22', 0.21999999999999997], ['2024-03-22', 0.22907331952257204], ['2024-03-21', 0.261959585023... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-02-24 |
true | 2024-07-21 | https://manifold.markets/George/joe-biden-will-not-seek-reelection | Will pull an LBJ before the convention. LBJ in 1968 famously announced before the convention he would not seek reelection to the presidency. Once the convention begins and if Biden has NOT withdrawn his candidacy this resolves as NO. | 2024-07-21 | Joe Biden will NOT seek reelection. | 2024-02-09 | [['2024-07-21', 0.9674922236614236], ['2024-07-21', 0.9674922236614236], ['2024-07-21', 0.9674922236614236], ['2024-07-18', 0.8099999999999958], ['2024-07-18', 0.949890709514082], ['2024-07-18', 0.638289993723124], ['2024-07-18', 0.6172482459096972], ['2024-07-18', 0.5622204831900417], ['2024-07-18', 0.5279152274326139... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-05-16 |
true | 2024-05-01 | https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/will-bitcoin-dip-below-55k-in-april | https://blockchain.info | 2024-05-01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in April 2024? | 2024-03-23 | [['2024-05-01', 0.008123925091112134], ['2024-05-01', 0.01000000000000001], ['2024-05-01', 0.01000000000000001], ['2024-05-01', 0.010456967297784265], ['2024-05-01', 0.011021107838828927], ['2024-05-01', 0.011261556909908118], ['2024-05-01', 0.012919628275600994], ['2024-04-30', 0.01793198348707596], ['2024-04-30', 0.0... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-04-07 |
true | 2024-06-22 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/do-manifold-users-believe-president | The Yes and No votes to the following poll resolves this question (unsure is not counted): | 2024-06-21 | Do Manifold users believe President Ebrahim Raisi was assassinated? | 2024-05-22 | [['2024-06-21', 0.010000000000000004], ['2024-06-21', 0.013454611614886636], ['2024-06-20', 0.01717795135238753], ['2024-06-18', 0.01722262413814725], ['2024-06-18', 0.019697358491560076], ['2024-06-18', 0.022741089911930842], ['2024-06-17', 0.031364470295544525], ['2024-06-16', 0.04588662657949576], ['2024-06-14', 0.0... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-06-03 |
true | 2024-03-27 | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-dune-part-two-have-domestic-gr | BoxOfficeMojo is the data source: Dune: Part Two releases on March 1st. I will use the cumulative If Madame Web has grossed $50M by May 1st, then this question resolves YES if Dune: Part Two has grossed >$200M, and NO if it has grossed <=$200M. (If the result looks mathematically certain, I may resolve this market ear... | 2024-03-27 | Will "Dune: Part Two" have DOMESTIC gross >4X greater than that of "Madame Web" (two months after release) | 2024-02-12 | [['2024-03-27', 0.9990444443199055], ['2024-03-27', 0.9985285658066624], ['2024-03-27', 0.9970985059006363], ['2024-03-25', 0.984103339277055], ['2024-03-15', 0.9805317821878545], ['2024-03-11', 0.9662966645486603], ['2024-02-29', 0.9492809210408368], ['2024-02-27', 0.9399308332634284], ['2024-02-19', 0.928128226725147... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-03-08 |
true | 2024-08-14 | https://manifold.markets/Weepinbell/will-will-stancil-win-the-minnesota | Resolves YES/NO as soon as a major, credible news source calls that Will Stancil either has or has not won the Minnesota House District 61A seat. | 2024-08-14 | Will Will Stancil win the Minnesota House seat he's running for in 2024? | 2024-02-21 | [['2024-08-14', 0.00976084912381616], ['2024-08-14', 0.009765606638117805], ['2024-08-14', 0.010000000000000004], ['2024-08-14', 0.03455926774712492], ['2024-08-14', 0.10364232249935627], ['2024-08-14', 0.10364232249935627], ['2024-08-14', 0.10364232249935627], ['2024-08-14', 0.2300000000000008], ['2024-08-14', 0.23000... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-04-30 |
true | 2024-07-15 | https://manifold.markets/ClubmasterTransparent/will-donald-trump-choose-a-vp-runni | Resolves when one of these events is publicly and unambiguously announced/reported, or when reliable evidence appears that Trump has a running mate or Travis Kelce is engaged to marry Taylor Swift or they have married, whichever comes first. If these events come to light simultaneously I will self-immolate in | 2024-07-15 | Will Donald Trump choose a VP running mate before Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift? | 2024-05-27 | [['2024-07-15', 0.9900000000000001], ['2024-07-10', 0.979437361381664], ['2024-07-09', 0.9721048160670546], ['2024-07-09', 0.9851902326637633], ['2024-07-09', 0.974314160635812], ['2024-07-09', 0.9734835145627643], ['2024-07-03', 0.9697282419225843], ['2024-06-29', 0.963815514197253], ['2024-06-28', 0.9511636403261884]... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-06-24 |
true | 2024-02-23 | https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-gpt45-or-gpt5-be-officially-an | Seems like historically AI models often get released near each other, for whatever reason. Bard was released on March 21, 2023, a week after GPT-4, for example, and Claude 2 was released on March 14, the same day as GPT-4. Resolves yes if there are less than or equal to 14 days between the public release of Gemini Ultr... | 2024-02-23 | Will GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 be officially announced within two weeks (on either side) of the release of Gemini Ultra? | 2024-01-16 | [['2024-02-23', 0.008580767200703089], ['2024-02-22', 0.027403141809533637], ['2024-02-22', 0.02710351771839409], ['2024-02-21', 0.0344053951670226], ['2024-02-18', 0.026199593049030905], ['2024-02-18', 0.02474424213741732], ['2024-02-18', 0.023899395020930667], ['2024-02-16', 0.039959204371734454], ['2024-02-16', 0.03... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-02-07 |
true | 2024-04-01 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-bitcoin-drop-below-49000-befor | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data | 2024-04-01 | Will Bitcoin drop below $49000 before the end of Mar 2024? | 2024-02-21 | [['2024-04-01', 0.0005383290832267627], ['2024-03-31', 0.027504685492249957], ['2024-03-30', 0.027235046868765905], ['2024-03-30', 0.03534344600659314], ['2024-03-29', 0.034906739553804564], ['2024-03-28', 0.034476307080029585], ['2024-03-28', 0.054766189569329944], ['2024-03-27', 0.05387620631352151], ['2024-03-27', 0... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-02-28 |
true | 2024-04-01 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-bitcoin-drop-below-42000-befor | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data | 2024-04-01 | Will Bitcoin drop below $42000 before the end of Mar 2024? | 2024-02-21 | [['2024-04-01', 0.0004739037019485723], ['2024-03-31', 0.013191277662708816], ['2024-03-30', 0.029366072188546002], ['2024-03-28', 0.04083973507279249], ['2024-03-28', 0.025224073968093515], ['2024-03-20', 0.048869304669530274], ['2024-03-20', 0.038733398426205705], ['2024-03-14', 0.042336048499257956], ['2024-03-10', ... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-03-15 |
true | 2024-11-06 | https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-the-election-will-th | Inflation data gathered from the bureau of labor statistics The current inflation rate is 3.2% the FED has a goal of 2%. 2.5% is roughly in the middle of these two numbers. If Harris is elected will the FED reach that mark? Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation. | 2024-11-06 | If Harris wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 3.5%)? | 2024-08-08 | [['2024-11-06', 0.41201267609120623], ['2024-11-06', 0.7587440482243317], ['2024-11-05', 0.7253358578447732], ['2024-11-05', 0.7577850853435595], ['2024-11-05', 0.7610311053622535], ['2024-11-04', 0.8251273527960896], ['2024-11-02', 0.8183049522934046], ['2024-11-02', 0.8154722592395363], ['2024-11-01', 0.8311697550838... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-08-25 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://manifold.markets/cash/will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-yll6ur2ywn | This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada raises interest rates in Q3 2024 (July, August, September). The current "target for the overnight rate" is 4.75%, having been cut by 0.25% in Q2. Past interest rate decisions are made available Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in the third quarter of 2024? | 2024-09-30 | Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q3 2024? | 2024-07-01 | [['2024-09-30', 0.010000443216786531], ['2024-09-30', 0.0179480680367016], ['2024-09-27', 0.018683740751828264], ['2024-09-24', 0.019736571606660994], ['2024-09-20', 0.020585227985402906], ['2024-08-23', 0.02212530193668257], ['2024-08-04', 0.044158988171624225], ['2024-07-24', 0.0695951914182751], ['2024-07-24', 0.124... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-08-24 |
true | 2024-05-01 | https://manifold.markets/howahlah/will-gemini-ultra-achieve-an-elo-of | Resolution criteria: | 2024-05-01 | Will Gemini Ultra achieve an Elo of 1300 or higher on the Chatbot Arena before May 1, 2024? | 2024-02-09 | [['2024-05-01', 0.01000000000000001], ['2024-05-01', 0.014897794798193947], ['2024-05-01', 0.014930396169383398], ['2024-04-29', 0.02179543419646234], ['2024-04-25', 0.023909797242197203], ['2024-04-24', 0.031152345183190894], ['2024-04-24', 0.03116451676176159], ['2024-04-24', 0.031289080244344514], ['2024-04-24', 0.0... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-03-28 |
true | 2024-09-08 | https://manifold.markets/Gugra/will-the-price-of-gold-surpass-2500 | Will the price of gold surpass $2,500 per ounce in 2024? this will resolve yes if at any point before the end of 2024 the price of gold surpasses $2500 per ounce price today ________________UPDATE___________________ Gold prices hit another record high after fresh U.S. data spurs Fed cut expectations | 2024-09-08 | Will the price of gold surpass $2,500 per ounce in 2024? | 2024-03-08 | [['2024-09-08', 0.99], ['2024-09-04', 0.9709911816347225], ['2024-09-03', 0.9623434300661188], ['2024-09-03', 0.9595944936439085], ['2024-09-03', 0.9530018697773491], ['2024-09-03', 0.8945331582108286], ['2024-08-25', 0.8025785352786056], ['2024-08-14', 0.7590768382450825], ['2024-07-17', 0.7921028639148782], ['2024-07... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-04-13 |
true | 2024-03-24 | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-alex-albon-finish-in-the-point-a07115480ab8 | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on March 24, 2024. If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A. Markets are resolved acco... | 2024-03-24 | Will Alex Albon finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | 2024-02-19 | [['2024-03-24', 7.136607829715815e-05], ['2024-03-24', 0.00756006262048086], ['2024-03-24', 0.026720203066538623], ['2024-03-24', 0.03109950341971945], ['2024-03-24', 0.03806608143301244], ['2024-03-24', 0.058105222635335754], ['2024-03-24', 0.07560379577052997], ['2024-03-24', 0.1824197936687747], ['2024-03-24', 0.362... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-02-25 |
true | 2024-09-20 | https://manifold.markets/Weezing/will-magnus-carlsen-lose-a-game-to | Super GrandMaster is an unofficial way to refer to players rated 2700 or higher. Resolves YES if Magnus Carlsen (currently rated 2832) loses FIDE rated classical game to a player whose official FIDE Elo rating is under 2700 at the time of the match. It must happen between now and 16.7.2025 (close date). Resolves NO if ... | 2024-09-20 | Will Magnus Carlsen lose a game to a non-superGM? | 2024-07-16 | [['2024-09-20', 0.9900000000000001], ['2024-09-20', 0.9715816894923265], ['2024-09-20', 0.9592127191937543], ['2024-09-20', 0.9368917225315774], ['2024-09-20', 0.890982289420641], ['2024-09-20', 0.7775739556832648], ['2024-09-18', 0.444891884229405], ['2024-08-05', 0.41781488456063787], ['2024-08-04', 0.421840487964086... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-08-24 |
true | 2024-11-05 | https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/will-kamala-harris-talk-about-ai-sa | Mentioning “AI safety” doesn’t count. For the purposes of this market, she needs to discuss concerns and proposals for regulating AI safety as currently being discussed among scholars of this topic. Proposed resolution basis (updated 31 Jul 2024 per comments): Kamala Harris mentions Problems in AI safety can be group... | 2024-11-05 | Will Kamala Harris talk about AI safety between now and Election Day? | 2024-07-27 | [['2024-11-05', 0.012488756077475613], ['2024-11-03', 0.012699410250818255], ['2024-11-03', 0.012699410250818255], ['2024-11-02', 0.012971666608588355], ['2024-11-02', 0.016489390816169947], ['2024-11-02', 0.016917482440944143], ['2024-11-02', 0.017137770291059524], ['2024-11-02', 0.02639805084854413], ['2024-11-02', 0... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-09-05 |
true | 2024-09-01 | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-remain-president-through-e4xpsbxuaa | Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of August 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then. Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does | 2024-08-20 | Will Biden remain President through end of August 2024? | 2024-08-02 | [['2024-08-20', 0.9876157891494435], ['2024-08-11', 0.9899999999999999], ['2024-08-05', 0.9727911247188937], ['2024-08-04', 0.9730867319626667], ['2024-08-03', 0.9617632302922648], ['2024-08-03', 0.9617339617905817], ['2024-08-02', 0.9532336545151554], ['2024-08-02', 0.9703991039000023], ['2024-08-02', 0.97340563525129... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-08-07 |
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