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values | question_type stringclasses 2
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 25 2.58k | data_source stringclasses 4
values | resolution float64 0 1 | threshold_date stringlengths 10 10 ⌀ | proxy_resolution float64 0 1 ⌀ | proxy_date_close stringlengths 10 10 | sampled_retrieval_date stringlengths 10 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
true | 2024-03-14 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21394/ | The Houthis of Yemen have been attacking surface ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait with missiles and drones for weeks now, but a new potentially important target is starting to receive increased attention by both the international community and the Houthis. A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent... | 2024-03-15 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | 2024-02-08 | [['2024-02-08', 0.291], ['2024-02-08', 0.07], ['2024-02-08', 0.15], ['2024-02-09', 0.1], ['2024-02-09', 0.12], ['2024-02-09', 0.15], ['2024-02-09', 0.1], ['2024-02-10', 0.1], ['2024-02-10', 0.09], ['2024-02-10', 0.05], ['2024-02-10', 0.05], ['2024-02-11', 0.05], ['2024-02-11', 0.05], ['2024-02-11', 0.05], ['2024-02-12'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor. Only sabotage and similar violent attacks (it does not have to be specifically attribut... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-02-25 | 0 | 2024-02-25 | 2024-02-17 |
true | 2024-02-15 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/ | Currently, China is not at the cutting edge of AI development (see, e.g., [Cottier, 2022](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FANYsqzPM9Yht3KM2/the-replication-and-emulation-of-gpt-3#:~:text=~October%202020%3A%20PanGu%2Dalpha%E2%80%94Chinese%20industry%2Dacademia%2Dgovernment%20collaboration%E2%80%94worse%20than%... | 2026-12-31 | Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027? | 2024-01-11 | [['2024-01-11', 0.57], ['2024-01-11', 0.735], ['2024-01-11', 0.9], ['2024-01-11', 0.72], ['2024-01-11', 0.9], ['2024-01-11', 0.76], ['2024-01-11', 0.84], ['2024-01-11', 0.85], ['2024-01-12', 0.84], ['2024-01-12', 0.76], ['2024-01-12', 0.8], ['2024-01-12', 0.76], ['2024-01-12', 0.76], ['2024-01-12', 0.65], ['2024-01-12'... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if an AI model developed by a Chinese firm, between question launch and January 1, 2027, is either:
i) Trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time.
or
ii) Top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot ... | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 2024-02-15 | 2024-02-07 |
true | 2024-02-29 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21081/ | [Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert.
The first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 20... | 2024-03-05 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | 2024-01-17 | [['2024-01-17', 0.68], ['2024-01-17', 0.666], ['2024-01-18', 0.8], ['2024-01-18', 0.66], ['2024-01-18', 0.7], ['2024-01-19', 0.66], ['2024-01-19', 0.7], ['2024-01-19', 0.67], ['2024-01-20', 0.69], ['2024-01-20', 0.75], ['2024-01-20', 0.75], ['2024-01-21', 0.69], ['2024-01-21', 0.68], ['2024-01-21', 0.68], ['2024-01-22'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of **Dune: Part Two** as reported by its [page on Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/) is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the **Dune (2021)**. If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-02-21 | 1 | 2024-02-21 | 2024-01-23 |
true | 2024-10-17 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27289/ | After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.... | 2025-01-02 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | 2024-08-17 | [['2024-08-17', 0.42], ['2024-08-17', 0.405], ['2024-08-18', 0.41], ['2024-08-18', 0.42], ['2024-08-18', 0.41], ['2024-08-18', 0.33], ['2024-08-20', 0.33], ['2024-08-21', 0.308], ['2024-08-21', 0.23], ['2024-08-26', 0.308], ['2024-08-28', 0.27], ['2024-08-28', 0.23], ['2024-08-28', 0.23], ['2024-09-04', 0.22], ['2024-0... | null | binary | This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following events happen according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- Yahya Sinwar has stepped down or been replaced as Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.
- Sinwar is captured (even if he is st... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-10-17 | 1 | 2024-10-17 | 2024-09-22 |
true | 2024-09-22 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27312/ | The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics.
... | 2024-09-29 | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | 2024-08-18 | [['2024-08-18', 0.61], ['2024-08-18', 0.66], ['2024-08-18', 0.555], ['2024-08-18', 0.54], ['2024-08-18', 0.62], ['2024-08-18', 0.66], ['2024-08-18', 0.66], ['2024-08-18', 0.5], ['2024-08-18', 0.72], ['2024-08-18', 0.5], ['2024-08-19', 0.6], ['2024-08-19', 0.67], ['2024-08-19', 0.6], ['2024-08-20', 0.67], ['2024-08-21',... | null | binary | The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular, accounts of the 2024 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 120 losses for 2024, this question resolves as *... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-09-03 | 1 | 2024-09-03 | 2024-08-27 |
true | 2024-10-25 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22910/ | Due to recent [constitutional changes](https://civil.ge/archives/271293), the largely ceremonial role of President of Georgia is no longer determined through direct elections but instead through a 300 member college of electors, of whom half are members of Parliament. No debate on the Parliament floor is permitted prio... | 2024-10-28 | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | 2024-05-01 | [['2024-05-01', 0.99], ['2024-05-01', 0.8300000000000001], ['2024-05-01', 0.71], ['2024-05-01', 0.67], ['2024-05-01', 0.99], ['2024-05-04', 0.99], ['2024-05-04', 0.91], ['2024-05-04', 0.94], ['2024-05-07', 0.95], ['2024-05-09', 0.95], ['2024-05-12', 0.99], ['2024-05-14', 0.95], ['2024-05-14', 0.95], ['2024-05-14', 0.95... | null | binary | This question resolves Yes if the Election Administration of Georgia or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#whatsort) report that the Georgian Dream Party has won a majority of seats in the Parliament of Georgia in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
The vote is scheduled for October 26, 2024. T... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-05-01 | 1 | 2024-05-01 | 2024-05-01 |
true | 2024-11-06 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28000/ | The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional... | 2024-12-01 | Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024? | 2024-09-17 | [['2024-09-17', 0.54], ['2024-09-18', 0.52], ['2024-09-18', 0.5], ['2024-09-18', 0.5], ['2024-09-20', 0.5], ['2024-09-20', 0.54], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-09-21', 0.5], ['2024-10-07', 0.5], ['2024-10-07', 0.5], ['2024-11-02', 0.51], ['2024-11-07', 0.5], ['2024-11-09', 0.5], ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc. [recall posted](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed ... | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 2024-11-06 | 2024-09-26 |
true | 2024-11-08 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28747/ | Anitta ganhou o Grammy Latino de Album do Ano em 2024 [Grammy Latino 2024](https://www.grammy.com/news/2024-latin-grammys-nominations-record-of-the-year). | 2024-11-09 | Anitta será indicada ao Grammy Awards 2025 em uma categoria principal? | 2024-10-07 | [['2024-10-09', 0.501], ['2024-10-09', 0.502]] | null | binary | Website oficial do Grammy | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 2024-11-08 | 2024-10-13 |
true | 2024-03-11 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21405/ | [Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appo... | 2024-03-31 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | 2024-02-09 | [['2024-02-09', 0.471], ['2024-02-09', 0.08], ['2024-02-09', 0.2], ['2024-02-10', 0.2], ['2024-02-10', 0.32], ['2024-02-10', 0.35], ['2024-02-10', 0.32], ['2024-02-11', 0.29], ['2024-02-11', 0.25], ['2024-02-11', 0.2], ['2024-02-11', 0.2], ['2024-02-12', 0.2], ['2024-02-12', 0.25], ['2024-02-12', 0.2], ['2024-02-13', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, Ariel Henry is no longer the Acting Prime Minister or Primer Minister of Haiti, for any reason. * To resolve as **Yes** Ariel Henry must neither be the acting or permanent prime minister of Haiti, his title changing from Acting Prime Minister to Prime Mini... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-03-12 | 1 | 2024-03-12 | 2024-02-27 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26526/ | Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked s... | 2024-10-01 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-05 | [['2024-08-05', 0.1], ['2024-08-05', 0.3], ['2024-08-06', 0.22], ['2024-08-06', 0.25], ['2024-08-06', 0.33], ['2024-08-07', 0.25], ['2024-08-07', 0.3], ['2024-08-08', 0.25], ['2024-08-08', 0.5], ['2024-08-08', 0.5], ['2024-08-09', 0.5], ['2024-08-09', 0.5], ['2024-08-10', 0.5], ['2024-08-10', 0.5], ['2024-08-11', 0.5],... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.
The state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting t... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-12 | 0 | 2024-09-12 | 2024-08-19 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24802/ | On May 30th, 2024, a jury found Donald Trump guilty on [all 34 felony counts]((https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-verdict-hush-money-trial-rcna152492)) in the "hush money" case in New York, making Trump the first American president to be convicted of a felony.
Following the verdict, Trump and ... | 2024-11-05 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | 2024-05-31 | [['2024-05-31', 0.44], ['2024-06-01', 0.14], ['2024-06-01', 0.02], ['2024-06-02', 0.05], ['2024-06-02', 0.02], ['2024-06-03', 0.01], ['2024-06-04', 0.01], ['2024-06-05', 0.01], ['2024-06-07', 0.01], ['2024-06-09', 0.01], ['2024-06-11', 0.01], ['2024-06-13', 0.01], ['2024-06-16', 0.01], ['2024-06-21', 0.01], ['2024-06-2... | null | binary | This question resolves **Yes** if, prior to November 5th, 2024, credible sources report that Donald Trump has successfully appealed one or more of the 34 felony counts in the "hush money" case. * "Successful appeal" means an official judicial decision, by any appellate court having jurisdiction, that overturns, vacates... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-06-01 | 0 | 2024-06-01 | 2024-05-31 |
true | 2024-05-13 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22298/ | The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand kil... | 2024-05-31 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | 2024-04-11 | [['2024-04-11', 0.35], ['2024-04-12', 0.49], ['2024-04-12', 0.5], ['2024-04-12', 0.5], ['2024-04-12', 0.6], ['2024-04-13', 0.6], ['2024-04-13', 0.62], ['2024-04-13', 0.5], ['2024-04-13', 0.5], ['2024-04-14', 0.45], ['2024-04-14', 0.45], ['2024-04-14', 0.5], ['2024-04-14', 0.55], ['2024-04-15', 0.56], ['2024-04-15', 0.6... | null | binary | This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 202... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-05-06 | 1 | 2024-05-06 | 2024-04-25 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26651/ | The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflat... | 2024-10-01 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-14 | [['2024-08-14', 0.5], ['2024-08-14', 0.25], ['2024-08-15', 0.2], ['2024-08-15', 0.175], ['2024-08-15', 0.23], ['2024-08-16', 0.25], ['2024-08-16', 0.4], ['2024-08-16', 0.235], ['2024-08-17', 0.4], ['2024-08-17', 0.3], ['2024-08-17', 0.3], ['2024-08-18', 0.3], ['2024-08-18', 0.3], ['2024-08-19', 0.284], ['2024-08-19', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Otherwise, this... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-29 | 0 | 2024-08-29 | 2024-08-22 |
true | 2024-11-12 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27441/ | > **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**
>
> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.
>
> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defec... | 2025-02-01 | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | 2024-08-22 | [['2024-08-23', 0.8], ['2024-08-23', 0.525], ['2024-08-23', 0.75], ['2024-08-23', 0.25], ['2024-08-24', 0.5], ['2024-08-24', 0.5], ['2024-08-24', 0.5], ['2024-08-24', 0.57], ['2024-08-25', 0.6], ['2024-08-25', 0.7], ['2024-08-25', 0.57], ['2024-08-25', 0.5], ['2024-08-25', 0.25], ['2024-08-25', 0.407], ['2024-08-25', 0... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if Greg Brockman returns to work at OpenAI (in either 2024 or 2025) following his leave of absence, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). This question resolves as **No** if, following his leave of absence, Brockman exits OpenAI without ret... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-11-15 | 1 | 2024-11-15 | 2024-10-11 |
true | 2024-09-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26530/ | According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting... | 2024-10-01 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | 2024-07-30 | [['2024-07-30', 0.3], ['2024-07-30', 0.43], ['2024-07-31', 0.43], ['2024-07-31', 0.41], ['2024-08-01', 0.45], ['2024-08-01', 0.36], ['2024-08-02', 0.44], ['2024-08-02', 0.4], ['2024-08-03', 0.3], ['2024-08-03', 0.34], ['2024-08-04', 0.3], ['2024-08-04', 0.3], ['2024-08-04', 0.21], ['2024-08-05', 0.1], ['2024-08-05', 0.... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.
In case the resolution source is no longer available or in the ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-06 | 0 | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-28 |
true | 2024-05-20 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22385/ | [SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starshi... | 2024-05-20 | Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024? | 2024-04-16 | [['2024-04-16', 0.99], ['2024-04-16', 0.6], ['2024-04-16', 0.716], ['2024-04-17', 0.75], ['2024-04-17', 0.7], ['2024-04-17', 0.61], ['2024-04-17', 0.7], ['2024-04-18', 0.66], ['2024-04-18', 0.65], ['2024-04-18', 0.7], ['2024-04-19', 0.708], ['2024-04-19', 0.73], ['2024-04-19', 0.67], ['2024-04-19', 0.65], ['2024-04-20'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the fourth Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship reaches an altitude of at least 200 kilometers (approximately 124 miles) intact. * An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](ht... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-04-16 | 1 | 2024-05-20 | 2024-04-22 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27209/ | On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png" />
[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 2024-10-01 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-14 | [['2024-08-14', 0.15], ['2024-08-15', 0.12], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-15', 0.11], ['2024-08-15', 0.1], ['2024-08-16', 0.105], ['2024-08-16', 0.1], ['2024-08-17', 0.1], ['2024-08-17', 0.1], ['2024-08-18', 0.1], ['2024-08-18', 0.08], ['2024-08-18', 0.1], ['2024-08-19', 0.098], ['2024-08-19', 0.08], ['2024-08-19', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.
To determine whether a U... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-24 | 0 | 2024-08-24 | 2024-08-21 |
true | 2024-10-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27341/ | According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, "Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his cam... | 2024-10-01 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | 2024-08-20 | [['2024-08-20', 0.28], ['2024-08-20', 0.33], ['2024-08-21', 0.4], ['2024-08-21', 0.39], ['2024-08-21', 0.36], ['2024-08-21', 0.3], ['2024-08-21', 0.36], ['2024-08-22', 0.3], ['2024-08-22', 0.25], ['2024-08-23', 0.25], ['2024-08-23', 0.33], ['2024-08-23', 0.28], ['2024-08-24', 0.33], ['2024-08-24', 0.3], ['2024-08-24', ... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign:
- Chris LaCivita
- Susie Wiles
If there is no such rep... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-09-27 | 0 | 2024-09-27 | 2024-09-18 |
true | 2024-08-10 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23760/ | The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.
The Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the elections, with more than 26% of votes on average. The two main pro-independenc... | 2024-12-30 | Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024? | 2024-05-21 | [['2024-05-21', 0.82], ['2024-05-21', 0.71], ['2024-05-21', 0.71], ['2024-05-21', 0.6], ['2024-05-21', 0.6], ['2024-05-21', 0.15], ['2024-05-24', 0.3], ['2024-05-26', 0.45], ['2024-05-29', 0.45], ['2024-05-31', 0.45], ['2024-05-31', 0.57], ['2024-06-01', 0.57], ['2024-06-01', 0.6], ['2024-06-02', 0.62], ['2024-06-02', ... | null | binary | This question will be defined in two possible ways:
1. Before January 1, 2025, there is a new elected President (the current one, Pere Aragonès, is in provisional functions and will cease to hold office once a new president is elected). Constitutionally, this situation would prevent elections for at least one year und... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 2024-08-10 | 2024-07-24 |
true | 2024-05-22 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21774/ | Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/17642948311... | 2024-11-04 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | 2024-03-06 | [['2024-03-05', 0.99], ['2024-03-05', 0.9450000000000001], ['2024-03-06', 0.9], ['2024-03-06', 0.5], ['2024-03-06', 0.8], ['2024-03-06', 0.75], ['2024-03-06', 0.75], ['2024-03-06', 0.55], ['2024-03-06', 0.5], ['2024-03-06', 0.55], ['2024-03-06', 0.55], ['2024-03-06', 0.75], ['2024-03-06', 0.5], ['2024-03-06', 0.52], ['... | null | binary | This question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley announces that she will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
If Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee, this question will be annulled. | metaculus | 1 | 2024-03-05 | 1 | 2024-03-05 | 2024-03-05 |
true | 2024-09-16 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26960/ | The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.
At its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:
> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target... | 2024-09-20 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | 2024-08-06 | [['2024-08-06', 0.1], ['2024-08-06', 0.05], ['2024-08-07', 0.07], ['2024-08-07', 0.07], ['2024-08-07', 0.05], ['2024-08-08', 0.05], ['2024-08-08', 0.07], ['2024-08-08', 0.07], ['2024-08-09', 0.07], ['2024-08-09', 0.07], ['2024-08-09', 0.08], ['2024-08-10', 0.06], ['2024-08-10', 0.06], ['2024-08-11', 0.05], ['2024-08-11... | null | binary | The question resolves as **Yes** if the US Federal Reserve reduces the upper limit of the [federal funds rate target range](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU) before September 17, 2024. The reduction must occur after August 5, 2024 and must take effect before September 17, 2024. | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-13 | 0 | 2024-08-13 | 2024-08-08 |
true | 2024-04-24 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21796/ | On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the ["Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the ["Protecting Americans from Foreign Adve... | 2024-12-31 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | 2024-03-08 | [['2024-03-08', 0.333], ['2024-03-09', 0.333], ['2024-03-09', 0.25], ['2024-03-09', 0.45], ['2024-03-10', 0.5], ['2024-03-10', 0.56], ['2024-03-10', 0.6], ['2024-03-11', 0.6], ['2024-03-11', 0.6], ['2024-03-11', 0.6], ['2024-03-12', 0.6], ['2024-03-12', 0.68], ['2024-03-12', 0.7], ['2024-03-13', 0.68], ['2024-03-13', 0... | null | binary | This question will resolve as *Yes* if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the US government has taken action, through an enacted law or executive order, with at least one of the following effects:
* Forces a sale of US-facing components of TikTok effective in 365 days or less relative to the date of... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-04-24 | 1 | 2024-04-24 | 2024-03-17 |
true | 2024-09-03 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26543/ | In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is e... | 2027-01-01 | Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning? | 2024-07-30 | [['2024-07-30', 0.5], ['2024-07-31', 0.5], ['2024-08-01', 0.5], ['2024-08-08', 0.62], ['2024-08-08', 0.664], ['2024-08-13', 0.73], ['2024-08-14', 0.78], ['2024-08-14', 0.716], ['2024-08-15', 0.716], ['2024-08-16', 0.716], ['2024-08-21', 0.74], ['2024-08-21', 0.8], ['2024-08-22', 0.8], ['2024-08-22', 0.8], ['2024-08-26'... | null | binary | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, credible sources report that a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) has issued a ruling that:
- Strikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of any Clean Air Act regulations promulgated by... | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 2024-09-03 | 2024-08-12 |
true | 2024-07-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24037/ | The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:
>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convent... | 2024-08-02 | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | 2024-05-26 | [['2024-05-26', 0.83], ['2024-05-27', 0.83], ['2024-05-27', 0.83], ['2024-05-27', 0.83], ['2024-05-27', 0.83], ['2024-05-31', 0.83], ['2024-06-01', 0.74], ['2024-06-01', 0.78], ['2024-06-10', 0.8], ['2024-06-13', 0.783], ['2024-06-27', 0.783], ['2024-06-28', 0.74]] | null | binary | The question will resolve **Yes** if the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and/or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the incumbent Secretary-General Michael Lodge has been elected for a third term in the July elections. Otherwise it will resolve **No**. - If Lodge does no... | metaculus | 0 | null | null | 2024-07-01 | 2024-06-23 |
true | 2024-06-07 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21782/ | The US has had a hot and cold relationship with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). The US first fielded these weapons in the 1980s, but between 2010 and 2013, under the Obama Administration, the Navy fully retired them. The Trump Administration reversed this decision in 2018, however, partly in respons... | 2030-01-01 | Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030? | 2024-04-18 | [['2024-04-20', 0.6], ['2024-04-23', 0.575], ['2024-04-23', 0.6], ['2024-04-24', 0.65], ['2024-04-27', 0.72], ['2024-04-28', 0.7], ['2024-04-30', 0.65], ['2024-05-02', 0.7], ['2024-05-02', 0.65], ['2024-05-02', 0.65], ['2024-05-02', 0.65], ['2024-05-14', 0.65], ['2024-06-13', 0.564], ['2024-06-19', 0.65], ['2024-06-20'... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, credible reports state that the US military has resumed funding for nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile R&D. The question resolves as **No** otherwise. | metaculus | 1 | null | null | 2024-06-07 | 2024-05-27 |
true | 2024-06-30 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23018/ | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | 2024-06-30 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | 2024-05-02 | [['2024-05-02', 0.32], ['2024-05-03', 0.25], ['2024-05-03', 0.27], ['2024-05-04', 0.35], ['2024-05-04', 0.35], ['2024-05-05', 0.2], ['2024-05-05', 0.2], ['2024-05-06', 0.25], ['2024-05-06', 0.2], ['2024-05-06', 0.22], ['2024-05-07', 0.24], ['2024-05-07', 0.19], ['2024-05-08', 0.2], ['2024-05-08', 0.15], ['2024-05-09', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if before July 1, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a [warrant of arrest](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as **No** otherwise.
* Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)
* Yoav Gal... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-06-28 | 0 | 2024-06-28 | 2024-05-24 |
true | 2024-09-01 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26751/ | In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44... | 2024-09-01 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | 2024-07-31 | [['2024-07-31', 0.05], ['2024-07-31', 0.1], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.05], ['2024-08-01', 0.02], ['2024-08-02', 0.02], ['2024-08-02', 0.02], ['2024-08-02', 0.01], ['2024-08-02', 0.01], ['2024-08-03', 0.01], ['2024-08-03', 0.01], ['2024-08-03', 0.01], ['2024-08-03... | null | binary | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as "No". - A concession ... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-08-01 | 0 | 2024-08-01 | 2024-07-31 |
true | 2024-09-23 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21320/ | Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbolla... | 2024-12-31 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | 2024-02-02 | [['2024-02-02', 0.15], ['2024-02-02', 0.2], ['2024-02-05', 0.15], ['2024-02-05', 0.15], ['2024-02-05', 0.15], ['2024-02-11', 0.15], ['2024-02-12', 0.15], ['2024-02-24', 0.12], ['2024-02-29', 0.15], ['2024-02-29', 0.15], ['2024-03-01', 0.19], ['2024-03-05', 0.2], ['2024-03-07', 0.3], ['2024-03-11', 0.3], ['2024-03-12', ... | null | binary | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah. * Bo... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-09-22 | 1 | 2024-09-22 | 2024-05-04 |
true | 2024-10-08 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27800/ | This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](htt... | 2026-01-01 | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | 2024-09-04 | [['2024-09-04', 0.15], ['2024-09-04', 0.41000000000000003], ['2024-09-04', 0.15], ['2024-09-04', 0.14], ['2024-09-05', 0.06], ['2024-09-05', 0.14], ['2024-09-05', 0.35], ['2024-09-05', 0.34], ['2024-09-05', 0.34], ['2024-09-06', 0.15], ['2024-09-06', 0.15], ['2024-09-06', 0.15], ['2024-09-06', 0.19], ['2024-09-06', 0.1... | null | binary | The question will resolve as Yes if, before Dec. 31, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:
- A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 [armored vehicles](https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured... | metaculus | 1 | 2024-10-01 | 1 | 2024-10-01 | 2024-09-24 |
true | 2024-07-31 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24034/ | Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in ... | 2024-08-01 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | 2024-05-18 | [['2024-05-18', 0.6], ['2024-05-19', 0.475], ['2024-05-19', 0.5], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-20', 0.35], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-20', 0.37], ['2024-05-21', 0.62], ['2024-05-22', 0.5], ['2024-05-22', 0.5], ['2024-05-22', 0.5], ['2024-05-23', 0.5], ['2024-05-23', 0.5], ['2024-05-23', 0.... | null | binary | This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
- The Philippines r... | metaculus | 0 | 2024-07-22 | 0 | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-08 |
true | 2024-10-13 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-t74g95grt5 | The Conservatives are choosing a new leader! The proposed schedule is as follows: During two of the most recent leadership contests, it did not end up going to the members. Will the race go to a member vote this time? Related markets: | 2024-10-13 | Conservative Party leadership contest - will it go to the members? | 2024-07-29 | [['2024-10-13', 0.9881858484251063], ['2024-10-13', 0.9899999999999999], ['2024-10-12', 0.9783019309667491], ['2024-10-11', 0.9779823372447053], ['2024-10-11', 0.9743612044648938], ['2024-10-11', 0.9735312871593982], ['2024-10-11', 0.9726608011638868], ['2024-10-11', 0.97174708574106], ['2024-10-11', 0.9712731261139798... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-10-13 | 1 | 2024-10-13 | 2024-08-13 |
true | 2024-11-07 | https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-the-winner-of-the-2024-us-pres-8tkfijgeec | Resolves as soon as the final state is called by AP or NYTimes | 2024-11-06 | Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election get more than 280 electoral votes? | 2024-09-24 | [['2024-11-06', 0.99], ['2024-11-06', 0.9686287963296772], ['2024-11-06', 0.8099999999999999], ['2024-11-06', 0.8099999999999999], ['2024-11-06', 0.9593281928184393], ['2024-11-05', 0.8099999999999999], ['2024-11-05', 0.8099999999999999], ['2024-09-26', 0.8099999999999999], ['2024-09-26', 0.7760189286958302], ['2024-09... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-11-06 | 1 | 2024-11-06 | 2024-10-02 |
true | 2024-06-02 | https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-this-linked-market-actually-de | Chat, is this real? Resolves yes if a billboard is actually put up as the linked market describes. The market claims this will happen in roughly April, so let's say this resolves No if there is no such billboard before the end of May. | 2024-06-01 | Will this Whalebait actually decide what logos get put up on a physical billboard in SF? | 2024-02-10 | [['2024-06-01', 0.020000000000000014], ['2024-06-01', 0.20179824252324347], ['2024-06-01', 0.20179824252324347], ['2024-06-01', 0.020000000000000014], ['2024-06-01', 0.11777191370177446], ['2024-04-04', 0.1392159030119289], ['2024-04-03', 0.15567910806215154], ['2024-04-02', 0.17612326715364526], ['2024-03-30', 0.20179... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-02-10 | 1 | 2024-06-02 | 2024-05-09 |
true | 2024-11-02 | https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-harris-lead-in-the-final-538-e | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ Whoever has a higher chance of winning per the final forecast, whenever that is released. Presumably the day before or on election day. If the answer is obvious I will resolve it November 4th. Yes=Harris No=Trump If tied 50:50, per the topline numbers, I will... | 2024-11-01 | Will Harris lead in the final 538 election forecast? | 2024-09-30 | [['2024-11-01', 0.27624402888627914], ['2024-10-31', 0.2662269634203825], ['2024-10-31', 0.3048185804260574], ['2024-10-30', 0.3076415389043769], ['2024-10-30', 0.30444346449104254], ['2024-10-30', 0.2427631547645254], ['2024-10-30', 0.22027354646130126], ['2024-10-30', 0.2296651092723818], ['2024-10-30', 0.23960577372... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | null | null | 2024-11-02 | 2024-10-12 |
true | 2024-08-04 | https://manifold.markets/ElectricSteam/will-elon-musk-fall-to-4th-richest | Tesla Stock is undergoing big pressure going down. Meta AI/Cloud service has been going many years, possibly they will announce some kind of AI market, AI driven gaming, or AI center hardware that is backed by its Meta cloud in the future. To me, it's very likely Elon Musk will fall to 4th place some day. But Elon Mus... | 2024-07-30 | Will Elon Musk fall to 4th richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires? | 2024-04-20 | [['2024-07-30', 0.02112712021801184], ['2024-07-26', 0.07667791312671778], ['2024-07-24', 0.08733846804703946], ['2024-07-24', 0.09222857341235088], ['2024-07-24', 0.09482737166380883], ['2024-07-24', 0.07210062335294604], ['2024-07-24', 0.05209535251239147], ['2024-07-23', 0.0950817038505961], ['2024-07-23', 0.0723279... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-07-15 | 0 | 2024-07-15 | 2024-05-24 |
true | 2024-03-10 | https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-3dbf060ae324 | Congressional leaders have agreed to pass Will the US government shut down before 3/15/24? Full shutdown definition, curtesy Metaculus: If legislation is passed and signed into law which guarantees the US Government will be funded past March 15th, the market will resolve No early. For more markets about the potent... | 2024-03-10 | Will there be a US government shutdown before March 15th? | 2024-01-14 | [['2024-03-10', 0.007513582036684799], ['2024-03-10', 0.028208960018475667], ['2024-03-10', 0.028208960018475667], ['2024-03-10', 0.028208960018475667], ['2024-03-10', 0.02765931154259014], ['2024-03-10', 0.02765931154259014], ['2024-03-10', 0.02765931154259014], ['2024-03-10', 0.01829462715272408], ['2024-03-10', 0.06... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-03-10 | 0 | 2024-03-10 | 2024-01-25 |
true | 2024-07-20 | https://manifold.markets/Predict/will-china-win-the-international-ma | The 2024 IMO is held in the UK between the 11th - 22nd of July 2024. Each participating country sends 6 competitors and the score for a country is the sum of the scores of its individual participants. Will China win again? (Tied for first would resolve YES) Previous winners have been: 2023 - China 2022 - China 2021 - C... | 2024-07-20 | Will China win the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) 2024 | 2024-05-18 | [['2024-07-20', 0.007373200554613436], ['2024-07-20', 0.030000000000000016], ['2024-07-20', 0.040000000000001354], ['2024-07-20', 0.010187607013380971], ['2024-07-20', 0.010000000000000009], ['2024-07-20', 0.010000000000000009], ['2024-07-20', 0.010000000000000009], ['2024-07-20', 0.010000000000000009], ['2024-07-20', ... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 0 | 2024-07-20 | 0 | 2024-07-20 | 2024-07-06 |
true | 2024-07-24 | https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov | Resolves to yes if LLama 3 is released before November 1st 2024. Questions with the same criteria: Other questions for Nov 2024: In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Llama 3 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the ... | 2024-07-24 | Will Llama 3 (405B) be released before Nov 2024? | 2024-01-20 | [['2024-07-24', 0.9897181741076919], ['2024-07-23', 0.99], ['2024-07-23', 0.9610939320365471], ['2024-07-23', 0.9592668549860084], ['2024-07-22', 0.9586867010461104], ['2024-07-22', 0.95768426544578], ['2024-07-22', 0.9531693077045833], ['2024-07-21', 0.9366205823071415], ['2024-07-21', 0.9319106362302538], ['2024-07-1... | null | BINARY | Not applicable/available for this question. | manifold | 1 | 2024-07-24 | 1 | 2024-07-24 | 2024-02-26 |
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