sample_id int64 1 449 | question stringlengths 27 176 | background stringlengths 77 1.65k |
|---|---|---|
46 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves... |
183 | Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5? | This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product. |
163 | Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6? | This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product. |
190 | Facing Joe Biden instead of a generic Democrat, will Trump gain at least 3% among Manifold respondents? | There are two Manifold polls posted, which both close on July 6. One of the polls asks Manifold respondents to vote with Joe Biden on a hypothetical ballot, and another asks respondents to vote with a generic Democrat on the hypothetical ballot.
@/SteveSokolowski/1-of-2-given-these-choices-who-woul@/SteveSokolowski/2... |
192 | H2H - Saratoga July 17th: Will CAP FERRAT finish in front of BOSSY JEANS in the New York Stallion Series Stakes? | The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing market closes at the scheduled post time.
If there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO. If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.
The market will be resolved with results published at https://www.equibase.com/ |
9 | Kamala president by Friday? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President Kamala Harris is formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States at any point before July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the... |
98 | On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | This question resolves Yes if, on July 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC). |
291 | On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k? | This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance. |
167 | Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21? | Clone of (and resolves identically to) https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151
The Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which arrived at the ISS on June 6, 2024, with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, must depart within 45 days due to the Harmony ... |
293 | Will "Borderlands" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B- or above? | This market resolves YES if "Borderlands" (2024) receives a B- CinemaScore or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a C+ or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.
"Borderlands" is the adaptation of the hugely popular video game franchise.
Here's a list of CinemaScores for prev... |
282 | Will "Twisters" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 75%? ("Certified Fresh") | "Twisters" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 75% or higher, one week after release (July 26th).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).
For example, the original "Twister" (1996) currently has a Tomat... |
24 | Will 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | Resolution source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/biden-drop-out-democrats.html
If at any point before midnight July 20 Central Time, it shows 10 or more Dem Senators, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no. |
40 | Will 538 Project Biden as the favorite on Friday? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to “No” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential elec... |
280 | Will Anthropic publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? | This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, Anthropic publishes a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models. |
449 | Will Austria qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Austria participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**. |
162 | Will BJP form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the BJP has a member sworn in as the next Indian Prime Minister following the next general elections. All other parties will resolve as **No**.
This question will resolve for the next general election occurring after June 1, 2022 (currently expected for May 2024) |
196 | Will Biden drop out before 7/13? | If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue his run as president before midnight July 13 Central Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO. |
34 | Will Biden drop out before July 20? | If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue the race before July 20 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no. |
36 | Will Biden remain President through end of July 2024? | Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.
Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does not cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is different... |
168 | Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? | The question resolves **Yes** if Borussia Dortmund wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams will resolve as **No**. |
113 | Will Chris Christie be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Chris Christie is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently mentioned; other options may be added in the future.
F... |
153 | Will Croatia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Croatia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**. |
182 | Will Cyprus qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Cyprus participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Cyprus does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
100 | Will Czechia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Czechia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Czechia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
174 | Will Deadpool & Wolverine have biggest opening weekend ever for R-rated movie? [ahead of Deadpool I & II, It, Joker] | Analysts are projecting a huge opening weekend for "Deadpool x Wolverine" crossover movie.
https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut
"""
The film, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Reynolds, is projected to earn between $340 million and $360 mil... |
5 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump Jr. is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently mentioned; other options may be added in the future.
... |
4 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | This question will resolve as "Yes" if, *on* July 15, 2024:
Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
The removal or block is confirmed ... |
14 | Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question may consider new candidates added in the future.
For this question, it is not relevant who receives th... |
159 | Will Doug Burgum be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Doug Burgum is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For thi... |
166 | Will ECR hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if ECR holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other outcomes. If two groups are tied for seats, both will resolve as **Yes**.
This question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europa... |
156 | Will Elon Musk show up at the Bitcoin Nashville 2024? | This market will resolve YES, if Elon Musk becomes a guest on the official stage of the Bitcoin Nashville 2024, one of the largest Bitcoin conferences, taking place on July 25-27, 2024.
[image] |
169 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | This question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.
The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
... |
63 | Will Francis Suarez be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Francis Suarez is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently mentioned; other options may be added in the future.
F... |
250 | Will GUE/NGL hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if GUE/NGL holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both will resolve as **Yes**.
This question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https:... |
1 | Will Glenn Youngkin be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Glenn Youngkin is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For ... |
41 | Will Greece qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Greece participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Greece does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
18 | Will INC form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the INC has a member sworn in as the next Indian Prime Minister following the next general elections. All other parties will resolve as **No**.
This question will resolve for the next general election occurring after June 1, 2022 (currently expected for May 2024). |
151 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals. |
27 | Will Ireland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ireland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Ireland does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
31 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals. |
39 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.
... |
7 | Will Joe Biden die before Saturday? | Resolves YES if there is an official announcement of Joe Biden's death before market close at the end of Friday, July 26th.
Otherwise, resolves NO. |
45 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP? | If Kamala Harris is nominated as the Democratic VP, this market will resolve to yes. If someone else is selected as VP, this market will resolve to no. If the VP is changed for any reason after the initial nomination, that will not change the resolution of this market. The market can resolve immediately after the nomin... |
75 | Will Kamala's odds of winning increase over the next week according to Nate Silver's model? | Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >46.6% on Friday August 9th at 8:40 PM. Resolves NO otherwise.
Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model |
114 | Will Larry Elder be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Larry Elder is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For thi... |
26 | Will Latvia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Latvia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Latvia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
38 | Will Liz Cheney be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Liz Cheney is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For this... |
295 | Will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap" (2024) gross >$20 million during its (domestic) opening weekend? | Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Trap" (2024).
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).
For example, the "Domestic Opening" for the M. Night Shyamalan's "Old" was $$16,854,735. This is the equ... |
185 | Will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B or above? | This market resolves YES if "Trap" (2024) receives a B CinemaScore or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a B- or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.
Context:
"Trap" is the next film directed by the legendary M. Night Shyamalan (with a great trailer).
Here are the Cinem... |
191 | Will Mathieu van der Poel finish ahead of Wout van Aert in the Men's Olympic Road Race in Paris? | This market resolves to YES if Mathieu van der Poel ranks higher than Wout van Aert. If both do not finish, the one who gives up first is ranked lower. If both give up due to the same crash or do not start, this market resolves 50%/50%.
This market will close when the Men's Olympic Road Race starts on August 3rd at 11... |
20 | Will Mike Pence be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Pence is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.
For this ... |
3 | Will Nikki Haley be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nikki Haley is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For thi... |
188 | Will Norway qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Norway participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Norway does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
176 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) close sub $100 per share by 7/31? | This market resolves to YES if NVDA closes below 100$ on any day before 7/31. |
299 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the "no retaliation for public risk disclosure" principle before July 1, 2024? | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2024, both of the following are true:
- OpenAI publicly commits to the "no retaliation for public risk disclosure" principle via a statement from the company or a company spokesperson, such as Sam Altman. The statement may be formal (such as a press release) or info... |
35 | Will OpenAI publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? | This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, OpenAI publishes a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models. |
25 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | The question resolves as **YES** if [ChatGPT](chat.openai.com) is generally available in the EU on June 30, 2024, and **NO** otherwise.
"Generally available" here means that the default state for people in the EU is that they can access it without a VPN (possibly requiring paying for it.) If unavailable in certain EU ... |
180 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? | The question resolves "Yes" if Paris Saint-Germain wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other outcomes resolve "No". |
42 | Will Poland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Poland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Poland does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
44 | Will Portugal qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Portugal participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Portugal does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
29 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the coordinates 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E as under any of the following categories:
- Assessed Russian Adva... |
288 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russian athletes are barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics under either (i) the Russian flag, (ii) The Russian Olympic Committee's flag, or (iii) any other independent or neutral flag. This will resolve based on the official list of countries and athletes present at the [20... |
199 | Will Serbia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Serbia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**. |
249 | Will Sha'Carri Richardson win a gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games?🥇🏃♀️[LIQUIDITY ADDED] | Resolves YES if Sha’Carri Richardson wins gold in any event.
“Track and field will start on Thursday, Aug. 1, and conclude on Sunday, Aug. 11. Sha'Carri Richardson will compete on the following days:
Women's 100m: Friday, Aug. 2, to Saturday, Aug. 3
Women's 4x100m Relay (lineups not yet announced): Thursday, Aug. 8,... |
181 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the South African National Assembly officially elects a president before July 1, 2024, according to reports from credible sources. |
33 | Will Taylor Swift cameo in Deadpool and Wolverine? | Resolves YES if she appears in the movie in any role, even if it is just her voice used for a character. Will still resolve YES if she is not credited on IMDB, if it is still confirmed by independent sources.
[image]https://people.com/will-taylor-swift-play-dazzler-in-deadpool-and-wolverine-8651310 |
68 | Will Ted Cruz be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ted Cruz is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.
For this qu... |
37 | Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.
For t... |
283 | Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.
For t... |
155 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.
The medal t... |
296 | Will USD be worth >= 145 JPY (yen) at close on August 9th, 2024? | [image]
Market resolves according to USD/JPY close listed for August 9th, 2024 on Yahoo! Finance. |
8 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Vivek Ramaswamy is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.
For ... |
157 | Will Wesley So beat Hans Niemann in Speed Chess Championship? | The match will be played on 7th of August, 18:00 GMT.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A. |
23 | Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th? | Politico reports:
Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.
Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Dem... |
50 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the swimming events. |
277 | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics. |
15 | Will at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early? | Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A draft... |
22 | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). |
186 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
- The Philippines r... |
193 | Will the American League Team win the MLB All Star Game? | Resolves YES if the American Team wins the MLB All Star Game. I will not bet on this market.
Edit (about 3 minutes after question creation): I changed the title from "Will the American League Team with the MLB All Star Game." It was just a typo.
Edit (7:53 ET July 16): Extended close time |
85 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 5, 2024, credible sources report that the European Union (EU) has announced that new tariffs or duties will be imposed that would apply to imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU. |
170 | Will the ID political group hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ID political group holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections. It will resolve as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.
This question resolves on the basis of [official sta... |
165 | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | The question will resolve **Yes** if the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and/or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the incumbent Secretary-General Michael Lodge has been elected for a third term in the July elections. Otherwise it will resolve **No**. |
187 | Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2024 NBA Finals? | The question resolves as **Yes** if the Milwaukee Bucks are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/).
It resolves as **No** for all other teams and if the Bucks are eliminated from contention. |
178 | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2024 NBA Finals? | The question resolves Yes if the Minnesota Timberwolves are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/).
It resolves No if any other team wins or if the Timberwolves are eliminated from contention. |
189 | Will the Netherlands qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Netherlands participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If the Netherlands does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. |
122 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2024 NBA Finals? | This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Knicks are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as **No** for all other teams if they are eliminated from contention. |
171 | Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024? | This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources. |
173 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that a person representing the Republican Party has won the special election for OH's 6th district. If popular sources are in disagreement, an Ohio State source or statement will be used. If no election is held before January 1, 2025, the question is annulled... |
177 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**. |
12 | Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics. |
297 | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | This question resolves as Yes if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that, before Monday, August 12, 2024 at 12:01 AM Venezuelan Standard Time (VET), any entity of the Venezuelan government has published results of the July 28, 2024 election purporting to represent 100% of the vot... |
298 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office opening for the **Deadpool & Wolverine** reported by Boxofficemojo on the [movie's page](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for **Deadpool** (2016) and **The Wolverin... |
200 | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 24, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that Evghenia Guțul has traveled to Russian territory within that period. |
160 | Will the linked market get at least 377 traders by end of July 15? (78 more!) | Sorry to my extremely loyal followers, I’ve become embroiled in some market shenanigans, so I’m making this market.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g)Resolves YES if the market embedded above has 377 traders before market close (July 15, 11:59 PM Pacific Time). Resolves NO other... |
164 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.c... |
179 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 40 and 41? | A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.
“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 40”
“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 40”
Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-acc... |
197 | Will this d20 roll be even? | I will roll the dice sometime the day the question closes and resolve right when i roll it(in order to be fair i will not invest in this market). resolves yes if even and resolves no if odd. |
2 | [Metaculus] Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democra...nomination for President? | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25755/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern o... |
273 | [Metaculus] Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage th...D, before August 3, 2024? | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25791/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolve... |
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