filename stringclasses 3
values | P_id stringlengths 36 36 | P_title stringlengths 35 182 | P_body stringlengths 98 1.51k | P_data_source stringclasses 1
value | P_resolution_date stringlengths 20 20 | P_resolution bool 2
classes | Q_given_P_title stringlengths 85 244 | Q_given_P_body stringlengths 292 2.23k | Q_given_P_resolution bool 2
classes | P_and_Q_title stringlengths 75 311 | P_and_Q_body stringlengths 220 2.12k | P_and_Q_resolution bool 2
classes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
scraped_cond.jsonl | 7c4b1834-715e-4059-8e19-2f023f3fce3e | Will Czechia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Czechia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Czechia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. | synthetic_inst | 2024-05-09T21:19:00Z | false | Given Czechia qualifies for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024, will Armenia qualify as well? | This question explores the conditional scenario where Czechia qualifies for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final, and asks whether Armenia will also qualify.
Resolution criteria for P: The condition is met if Czechia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having... | null | Will both Czechia and Armenia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both Czechia and Armenia participate in their respective Semi-finals and are officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If either Czechia or Armenia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 89c6e359-4105-4a41-9c3d-12e59497a87c | Will Florida enact legislation restricting the public carrying of non-firearm weapons by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, Florida officially passes and enacts legislation that imposes new restrictions on the public carrying of non-firearm weapons, such as bladed weapons or other non-firearm implements. The legislation must specifically address the carrying of these weapons in publi... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | If Florida enacts legislation restricting the public carrying of non-firearm weapons by August 2024, will Arizona do the same? | Suppose the following is true: Florida enacts legislation restricting the public carrying of non-firearm weapons by August 31, 2024. This means that by this date, Florida has officially passed and enacted legislation that imposes new restrictions on the public carrying of non-firearm weapons, such as bladed weapons or ... | null | Will both Florida and Arizona enact legislation restricting the public carrying of non-firearm weapons by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, both Florida and Arizona officially pass and enact legislation that imposes new restrictions on the public carrying of non-firearm weapons, such as bladed weapons or other non-firearm implements. The legislation in each state must specifically address the carryi... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | ecccb98b-d0de-498c-9523-30d234429abf | Will South Carolina implement a free community college plan by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, South Carolina has officially implemented a free community college plan. Implementation is confirmed if students are able to enroll in community colleges without tuition fees, as reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as local South Carolina newspap... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on South Carolina implementing a free community college plan by July 2024, will the Bank of England announce an interest rate cut by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: South Carolina implements a free community college plan by July 31, 2024. This implementation is confirmed if students can enroll in community colleges without tuition fees, as reported by at least two reputable news sources, and the plan is part of a state-wide initiative. Then, will the... | null | Will both South Carolina implement a free community college plan and the Bank of England announce an interest rate cut by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if BOTH of the following occur by July 31, 2024: (a) South Carolina officially implements a free community college plan, confirmed by students being able to enroll in community colleges without tuition fees, as reported by at least two reputable news sources. The plan must be part of a... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 8087a021-bbff-4443-a449-64f92a0a7fc1 | Will Latvia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Latvia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Latvia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. | synthetic_inst | 2024-05-09T21:19:00Z | true | Conditional on Latvia qualifying for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024, will Georgia also qualify? | This question explores the scenario where Latvia qualifies for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final and asks whether Georgia will also qualify.
Resolution criteria for the condition (P): Latvia must participate in a Semi-final and be officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the... | true | Will both Latvia and Georgia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of the following occur: (a) Latvia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final, and (b) Georgia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the Euro... | true |
2028_cond.jsonl | 75cbe409-38e8-4e5b-84c3-010dd14702e6 | Will the United States implement a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if the United States implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags through federal legislation or regulation between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The ban must be officially documented in federal law or regulation and publicly accessible through government public... | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given the US bans single-use plastic bags nationwide, will a fusion reactor achieve net positive energy by 2028? | Suppose the following is true: The United States implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags through federal legislation or regulation between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The ban must be officially documented in federal law or regulation and publicly accessible through government publications.
The... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) the United States implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags, and (b) a nuclear fusion reactor achieves net positive energy output? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) The United States implements a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags through federal legislation or regulation. The ban must be officially documented in federal law or regulation and publicly acc... | null |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | c6efb986-94e3-4f3a-afc3-2717be1001a7 | Will the Teamsters Union endorse a candidate for the 2024 US presidential election by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the Teamsters Union publicly endorses a candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. The endorsement must be confirmed through official Teamsters Union statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters,... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on the Teamsters Union endorsing a candidate for the 2024 US presidential election by July 2024, will California remove the work requirement from its Medicaid plan by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the Teamsters Union publicly endorses a candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. The endorsement must be confirmed through official Teamsters Union statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, New Yo... | null | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) The Teamsters Union endorses a candidate for the 2024 US presidential election, and (b) California removes the work requirement from its Medicaid plan? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024: (a) The Teamsters Union publicly endorses a candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. The endorsement must be confirmed through official Teamsters Union statements or reported by at least two reputable news... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 9352ef2c-c55f-4f1d-8d67-f3e87783271a | Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.
For t... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-17T18:34:00Z | true | If Trump's lead over Biden is between 2 and 4 points on July 15, 2024, will Francis Suarez be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Suppose the following is true: On July 15, 2024, Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden is greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 points according to 538's national polling average, as accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024. For the purposes of this condition, a positive value indicates a Trump lead.
Then, is it true ... | false | Will both of the following occur: (1) Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average, and (2) Francis Suarez be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of the following conditions are met:
a. Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) is greater than 2 and less than or equal to ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | c63fa9d7-7373-4a5c-b2ec-df901d76d452 | Will the UK economy avoid a recession by July 2024? | This question resolves as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the UK economy does not enter a recession. For the purpose of this question, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the UK's Office for National Statistics. The question resolves as NO if the UK economy experiences two... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | true | Conditional on the UK economy avoiding a recession by July 2024, will General Motors' quarterly net income increase by over 20% year-over-year by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: The UK economy does not enter a recession by July 31, 2024, meaning it does not experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the UK's Office for National Statistics between October 1, 2023, and July 31, 2024.
Then, is it true that General Motors will report ... | false | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) The UK economy avoids a recession, and (b) General Motors' quarterly net income increases by over 20% year-over-year? | This question resolves as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024: (a) The UK economy does not enter a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the UK's Office for National Statistics, at any point between October 1, 2023, and July 31, 2024. ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 0de095ad-4f29-4feb-b10c-c645559ea857 | Will the FDA issue a recall for ground oregano products due to lead contamination by July 2024? | This question resolves as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially issues a recall for any ground oregano products due to lead contamination. The recall must be confirmed through official FDA announcements or reports from at least two major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associate... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given the FDA issues a recall for ground oregano due to lead by July 2024, will the Philippines declare an end to its measles outbreak by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially issues a recall for any ground oregano products due to lead contamination. The recall must be confirmed through official FDA announcements or reports from at least two major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated P... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) The FDA will issue a recall for ground oregano products due to lead contamination by July 2024 (b) The Philippines will officially declare an end to its current measles outbreak by August 2024? | This question resolves as YES only if both of the following conditions are met: (a) By July 31, 2024, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially issues a recall for any ground oregano products due to lead contamination. The recall must be confirmed through official FDA announcements or reports from at least two ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 17abd70e-31a8-4497-9a06-a1247fe0f9c1 | Will Pennsylvania's near-total abortion ban be declared constitutional by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, a court ruling confirms the constitutionality of Pennsylvania's near-total abortion ban. The confirmation must come from a Pennsylvania state court and be reported by at least two reputable national news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, or major US ne... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on Pennsylvania's near-total abortion ban being declared constitutional by August 2024, will an enforceable ethics code for U.S. Supreme Court justices be established by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, a Pennsylvania state court rules that the near-total abortion ban is constitutional, and this is reported by at least two reputable national news sources. The near-total abortion ban refers to the law blocked and pending assessment as of October 1, 2023.
Then, will an... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Pennsylvania's near-total abortion ban be declared constitutional by August 2024 (b) An enforceable ethics code for U.S. Supreme Court justices be established by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met:
(a) By August 31, 2024, a Pennsylvania state court confirms the constitutionality of Pennsylvania's near-total abortion ban, with confirmation reported by at least two reputable national news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, or ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | cf225654-35a8-4d9f-8875-f59f223f2264 | Will Japan and Saudi Arabia implement a new form of cooperation by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, Japan and Saudi Arabia have publicly announced the implementation of a new form of cooperation as part of a bilateral action plan. The announcement must be confirmed by official statements from either the Japanese or Saudi government and reported by at least two r... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | true | If Japan and Saudi Arabia implement a new form of cooperation by July 2024, will Brazil announce plans to build additional nuclear reactors beyond the current two by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, Japan and Saudi Arabia have publicly announced the implementation of a new form of cooperation as part of a bilateral action plan. This must be confirmed by official statements from either the Japanese or Saudi government and reported by at least two reputable internatio... | false | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) Japan and Saudi Arabia implement a new form of cooperation, and (b) Brazil announce plans to build additional nuclear reactors beyond the current two? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following occur by July 31, 2024: (a) Japan and Saudi Arabia publicly announce the implementation of a new form of cooperation as part of a bilateral action plan. The announcement must be confirmed by official statements from either the Japanese or Saudi government and r... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | c69dd930-52d2-40ee-b392-ed7f00114f0d | Will the FDA approve MDMA as a therapy for schizophrenia by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approves MDMA (3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine) for use as a therapy for schizophrenia by August 31, 2024. For a positive resolution, the approval must be confirmed through an official announcement from the FDA and reported by... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given the FDA approves MDMA for schizophrenia by August 2024, will the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate be at or above 4.00% in August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approves MDMA (3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine) for use as a therapy for schizophrenia by August 31, 2024. The approval must be confirmed through an official announcement from the FDA and reported by at least two reputable news sour... | null | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (a) the FDA approves MDMA as a therapy for schizophrenia (b) the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate remains at or above 4.00%? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met: (1) The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approves MDMA (3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine) for use as a therapy for schizophrenia by August 31, 2024. The approval must be confirmed through an official announcement from the ... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | d56cadf2-d8fa-4f2d-bf65-c207de06a408 | Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ron DeSantis is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For this q... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-01T04:00:00Z | false | Given Ron DeSantis is the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Suppose the following is true: Ron DeSantis is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. This selection is solely determined by the delegates of the Republican National Convention.
Then, is it true that Donald Trump will be charged or indicted for any statemen... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election (b) Donald Trump will be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | (a) This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ron DeSantis is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For th... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 419dead2-fd6c-4b9b-9073-4086fb59056b | Will Norway qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Norway participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Norway does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. | synthetic_inst | 2024-05-09T21:19:00Z | true | Conditional on Norway qualifying for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024, will Switzerland qualify as well? | This question resolves as **Yes** if both of the following conditions are met:
1. Norway participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final.
2. Switzerland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by t... | true | Will both Norway and Switzerland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both Norway and Switzerland participate in their respective Semi-finals and are officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If either Norway or Switzerland does not qualify, the question will resolve as *... | true |
2028_cond.jsonl | 30d02606-e2b6-47a6-8f3d-ef8296940ddf | Will Italy announce the construction of a new nuclear power plant before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if the Italian government officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The announcement must be made by an official government agency and reported by reputable news sources. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given Italy announces a new nuclear power plant, will France announce a new climate change policy before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: The Italian government officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. This announcement is made by an official government agency and reported by reputable news sources.
Then, will the French government announce the establ... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Italy announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant, and (b) France announces a new national policy to combat climate change? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) The Italian government officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant. The announcement must be made by an official government agency and reported by reputable news sources. (b) T... | null |
2028_cond.jsonl | a858e282-f3cc-45ea-ae97-5884efa89698 | Will Amazon establish a regional headquarters in Canada before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Amazon officially announces and opens a regional headquarters in any city within Canada between the creation date of October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The headquarters must be fully operational and recognized as a regional office by Amazon's corporate structure. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Conditional on Amazon establishing a regional headquarters in Canada before January 1, 2028, will a new species of microorganism be discovered in the Arctic permafrost and documented in a peer-reviewed scientific journal before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: Amazon officially announces and opens a regional headquarters in any city within Canada between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The headquarters is fully operational and recognized as a regional office by Amazon's corporate structure.
Then, will a new species of microorganism be di... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Amazon establishes a regional headquarters in Canada, and (b) a new species of microorganism is discovered in the Arctic permafrost and documented in a peer-reviewed scientific journal? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Amazon officially announces and opens a regional headquarters in any city within Canada. The headquarters must be fully operational and recognized as a regional office by Amazon's corporate structure; and (b) a new specie... | null |
2028_cond.jsonl | 8937b842-dfe3-4c61-a68e-1682de07ebc0 | Will Japan implement a national AI ethics policy before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Japan implements a national AI ethics policy between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The policy must be officially announced by the Japanese government and must include specific guidelines or regulations related to the ethical use of AI. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given Japan implements a national AI ethics policy before January 1, 2028, will the US Supreme Court rule on a climate change case before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: Japan implements a national AI ethics policy between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The policy must be officially announced by the Japanese government and must include specific guidelines or regulations related to the ethical use of AI. Given this, will the Supreme Court of the Uni... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Japan implements a national AI ethics policy and (b) the Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case directly related to climate change regulations? | (a) Japan implements a national AI ethics policy: This will be resolved as 'Yes' if Japan implements a national AI ethics policy between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The policy must be officially announced by the Japanese government and must include specific guidelines or regulations related to the ethical use... | null |
scraped_cond.jsonl | be879f72-7020-433f-a0d0-5eb5070bff36 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals. | synthetic_inst | 2024-05-01T18:00:00Z | false | Conditional on Israel carrying out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024, will Iran's Guardian Council approve Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a presidential candidate? | Suppose the following is true: Israel carries out an attack within Iran before May 1, 2024, leading to the death of at least five individuals, as indicated by credible reports. Then, will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? This question r... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024, and (b) Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | (a) This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals. (b) This question resolves **Yes** if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 75bd1480-d945-4ec8-8a8c-6ace59713220 | Will France's CAC 40 index reach or exceed 7,500 points by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, at any point between October 1, 2023 and August 31, 2024, France's CAC 40 index reaches or exceeds 7,500 points. The 7,500 point level is chosen as a representative value that the index might have been at before a significant drop. Verification will be based on official index repor... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | true | Given France's CAC 40 index reaches or exceeds 7,500 points by August 2024, will Virginia maintain its $11 per hour minimum wage for fast food workers through July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: Between October 1, 2023 and August 31, 2024, France's CAC 40 index reaches or exceeds 7,500 points at any time (intraday highs count). Verification is based on official index reports from reputable financial market data providers such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or Euronext Paris.
Then, is it... | true | Will both of the following occur: (a) France's CAC 40 index reaches or exceeds 7,500 points by August 2024 (b) Virginia maintains its $11 per hour minimum wage for fast food workers through July 2024? | This question resolves as YES if both of the following conditions are met: (1) France's CAC 40 index reaches or exceeds 7,500 points at any time between October 1, 2023, and August 31, 2024. Verification will be based on official index reports from reputable financial market data providers such as Bloomberg, Reuters, o... | true |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 3007470d-981f-429d-bd5d-9b6c09dd7973 | Will Imelda Marcos remain in prison for her corruption sentence in July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, for the entire month of July 2024, Imelda Marcos is serving her corruption sentence in prison and has not been granted house arrest or any other form of release. The resolution will be based on official announcements from Philippine authorities or credible news reports from at leas... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | If Imelda Marcos remains in prison for her corruption sentence in July 2024, will Medicare's negotiated drug prices include a major mental health medication by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: Imelda Marcos remains in a standard correctional facility, serving her corruption sentence, without being granted house arrest or any form of release for the entire month of July 2024. This is confirmed by official announcements from Philippine authorities or credible news reports from at... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Imelda Marcos remains in prison for her corruption sentence in July 2024, and (b) Medicare's negotiated drug prices include a major mental health medication by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met:
(a) For the entire month of July 2024, Imelda Marcos is serving her corruption sentence in a standard correctional facility and has not been granted house arrest or any other form of release. Official announcements from Philippine authorit... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | e9b70c39-d98d-40ee-b421-71f8c26b8b04 | Will Andrew Bailey remain as Governor of the Bank of England through July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if Andrew Bailey is still serving as the Governor of the Bank of England on July 31, 2024. Confirmation must come from official Bank of England announcements or be reported by at least two major news outlets (such as Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, or Bloomberg). If he is no lo... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | true | If Andrew Bailey remains as Governor of the Bank of England through July 2024, will a government-developed AI system be reported for spreading election misinformation by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: Andrew Bailey remains as Governor of the Bank of England through July 2024, confirmed by official announcements or major news outlets. Then, will there be credible reports or official warnings by August 31, 2024, stating that a government-developed AI system is spreading election misinfor... | false | Will both of the following occur: (a) Andrew Bailey remains as Governor of the Bank of England through July 2024 and (b) A government-developed AI system is reported for spreading election misinformation by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met: (a) Andrew Bailey is still serving as the Governor of the Bank of England on July 31, 2024, with confirmation from official Bank of England announcements or at least two major news outlets such as Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, or B... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 6934a6ba-563e-4998-a73c-19a50b7c90fc | Will the Indian economy avoid a recession by July 2024? | This question resolves as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the Indian economy does not enter a recession. For the purpose of this question, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation of India. The question resolves as NO if t... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | true | Given the Indian economy avoids a recession by July 2024, will the Swiss National Bank announce an interest rate cut by July 2024? | This question combines two forecasting scenarios:
1. Indian Economy Recession Avoidance: This part of the question resolves as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the Indian economy does not enter a recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the Ministry of Statistics and... | true | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) The Indian economy avoids a recession, and (b) The Swiss National Bank announces an interest rate cut? | This question resolves as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024: (a) The Indian economy does not enter a recession. For the purpose of this question, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementatio... | true |
scraped_cond.jsonl | ac5e33f3-4c2b-4386-99df-2a2c6e6b02df | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024. This referendum may be an "advisory" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effect.... | synthetic_inst | 2024-05-03T23:36:00Z | false | If Scotland holds an official referendum on independence before May 3, 2024, will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Suppose the following is true: Scotland holds an official, sanctioned referendum on independence from the United Kingdom before May 3, 2024. This referendum must have the consent of the UK government and not be a "wildcat" referendum. Given this condition, will Vivek Ramaswamy be selected by the Republican National Con... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024, and (b) Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | (a) This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024. This referendum may be an "advisory" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effe... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 46a19b56-f486-4152-b2e0-65aef24d5203 | Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics. | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-11T16:34:00Z | false | Given the USA wins more Gold than Silver medals, will they top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Suppose the following is true: The United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Then, will the USA be the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Resolution criteria for the condition: Resolves YES if the USA wins more Gold than Silver medals.
Resolut... | null | Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals and also top the Olympic Medal Table at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | This question resolves Yes if both of the following conditions are met: (a) The United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics. (b) The United States Olympic Team is the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The ranking is determined by the number of Go... | false |
2028_cond.jsonl | f585b285-3e5e-479b-9f99-9c911c979724 | Will Russia reduce its annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 15% compared to 2024 levels before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Russia's annual greenhouse gas emissions, as reported by a reputable environmental monitoring agency such as the Russian Federal State Statistics Service or the International Energy Agency, decrease by at least 15% compared to 2024 levels between October 1, 2024, and January 1... | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given Russia reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by 15% before 2028, will Japan implement an AI policy with ethical guidelines by 2028? | Suppose the following is true: Russia's annual greenhouse gas emissions, as reported by a reputable environmental monitoring agency such as the Russian Federal State Statistics Service or the International Energy Agency, decrease by at least 15% compared to 2024 levels between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. Then... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Russia reduces its annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 15% compared to 2024 levels, and (b) Japan implements a national policy for AI development that includes ethical guidelines? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following conditions are met between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) Russia's annual greenhouse gas emissions, as reported by a reputable environmental monitoring agency such as the Russian Federal State Statistics Service or the International Energy Agen... | null |
2028_cond.jsonl | 60a2a7e8-e3c8-4b5a-8abc-eb14e824c7df | Will a woman be confirmed as NASA Administrator by the US Senate before 2028-01-01? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between the creation date of this question (2024-10-01) and 2028-01-01, a woman is confirmed by the United States Senate as the Administrator of NASA. The confirmation must be officially documented in the records of the U.S. Senate and reported by major news outlets. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given a woman is confirmed as NASA Administrator by the US Senate before 2028, will the US Senate pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, a woman is confirmed by the United States Senate as the Administrator of NASA. This confirmation must be officially documented in the records of the U.S. Senate and reported by major news outlets.
Then, will the US Senate pass a comprehensiv... | null | Will both of the following occur before 2028-01-01: (a) A woman is confirmed as NASA Administrator by the US Senate, and (b) The US Senate passes a comprehensive immigration reform bill? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following events occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) A woman is confirmed by the United States Senate as the Administrator of NASA, with the confirmation officially documented in the records of the U.S. Senate and reported by major news outlets,... | null |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 8048fbe6-77cf-4217-977e-923ef5c702e2 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is charged or indicted for any statements related to potential witnesses in *[The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia)*. The indictments must occur before June 1, 2024. | synthetic_inst | 2024-06-01T15:47:00Z | false | If Donald Trump is charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024, will Kamala Harris become President by July 26, 2024? | The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is charged or indicted for any statements related to potential witnesses in *[The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia)*. The indictments must occur before June 1, 2024.
This market will resolve to... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024, and (b) Kamala Harris be formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States before July 26, 2024? | (a) The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is charged or indicted for any statements related to potential witnesses in *[The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia)*. The indictments must occur before June 1, 2024.
(b) This market will re... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 2dcf63e5-d114-4907-93e0-617f305fb6fb | Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee be a Woman? | Will resolve “yes” if/when the Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election.
Will resolve “no” if/when the Democratic delegates select a male presidential nominee for the 2024 election. | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-06T13:22:40Z | true | If the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a Woman, will Tucker Carlson be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Suppose the following is true: The Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election. Then, will Tucker Carlson be selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria for the condition: Resolves “yes” if/when the Democra... | false | Will both of the following occur: (a) The 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee will be a Woman (b) Tucker Carlson will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | (a) This will resolve “yes” if/when the Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election. It will resolve “no” if/when the Democratic delegates select a male presidential nominee for the 2024 election.
(b) This will resolve as **Yes** if Tucker Carlson is selected by the Republican Natio... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 194638bf-8923-4017-9ee0-0851bdaf1272 | Will Ketchikan, Alaska, vote to restrict cruise ship docking to weekdays only by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the city of Ketchikan, Alaska, has held an official vote (either by city council or public referendum) on restricting cruise ship docking to weekdays only, and the outcome of this vote is in favor of such a restriction. The vote must be specifically about restrict... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on Ketchikan, Alaska, voting to restrict cruise ship docking to weekdays only by July 2024, will large protests occur in Canada in response to environmental policy changes by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the city of Ketchikan, Alaska, has held an official vote (either by city council or public referendum) on restricting cruise ship docking to weekdays only, and the outcome of this vote is in favor of such a restriction. The vote must be specifically about restricting cru... | null | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (1) Ketchikan, Alaska, votes to restrict cruise ship docking to weekdays only, and (2) large protests occur in Canada in response to environmental policy changes? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024:
1. Ketchikan, Alaska, holds an official vote (either by city council or public referendum) on restricting cruise ship docking to weekdays only, and the outcome of this vote is in favor of such a restriction. The vote must b... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 9946a712-8fbc-4998-a115-2150f9342644 | Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ron DeSantis is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For this q... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-01T04:00:00Z | false | Conditional on Ron DeSantis being the Republican nominee, will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th? | This question explores the scenario where Ron DeSantis becomes the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and asks whether, under this condition, a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members or US Senators will work together to pressure Joe Biden to consider ending his re-election... | null | Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election and will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of the following occur:
1. Ron DeSantis is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. This is determined by who is selected by the delegates of the Republican National Convention, regardless of who receives the Repu... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 2e9b157e-988c-47e4-8bde-decd9bb893f1 | Will the headquarters of a major insurance company be fully relocated to Austin, Texas by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, a major insurance company has fully relocated its headquarters from its original location to Austin, Texas. For the resolution to be affirmative:
1. The relocation must be officially announced by the company or its leadership.
2. The announcement must be reported... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | If a major insurance company relocates its headquarters to Austin, Texas by July 2024, will the Gates Foundation announce over $400 million in new funding? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, a major insurance company has fully relocated its headquarters to Austin, Texas. This includes an official announcement by the company, reported by at least two major news sources, and the new headquarters must be operational with key executive functions transferred. Par... | null | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) A major insurance company fully relocates its headquarters to Austin, Texas, AND (b) The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announces new funding commitments totaling over $400 million? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024:
(a) A major insurance company has fully relocated its headquarters from its original location to Austin, Texas. For this to be considered a full relocation:
1. The relocation must be officially announced by the company o... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 26c8d8f6-e8f4-4732-ad3c-aa58f47b0f1b | Will Georgia hold a referendum on abortion rights by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, Georgia officially conducts a public referendum specifically focused on enshrining protection for abortion rights in the state. For a positive resolution:
1. The referendum must be officially announced and conducted by the Georgia state government.
2. The refer... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on Georgia holding a referendum on abortion rights by August 2024, will the FTC announce completion of a major pricing practices investigation by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, Georgia officially conducts a public referendum specifically focused on enshrining protection for abortion rights in the state. For this to be true, the referendum must be officially announced and conducted by the Georgia state government, explicitly address the issue ... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Georgia holds a referendum on abortion rights by August 2024, and (b) the FTC announces completion of a major pricing practices investigation by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following events occur:
(a) By August 31, 2024, Georgia officially conducts a public referendum specifically focused on enshrining protection for abortion rights in the state. This requires:
1. The referendum must be officially announced and conducted by the Georgia ... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 6f2eb5b0-9e42-412d-8a5b-b4fbb1e7e333 | Will Nikki Haley be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nikki Haley is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.
For thi... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-01T04:00:00Z | false | If Nikki Haley is the Republican nominee, will a reliable media outlet cover Joe Biden dropping out at least 6 hours in advance? | Suppose the following is true: Nikki Haley is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Now, given this scenario, we want to know: If President Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 US Presidential race, will a big and reliable media outlet like Associated Press Ne... | null | Will both of the following occur: (1) Nikki Haley is the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and (2) if Joe Biden drops out, a reliable media outlet covers the story at least 6 hours in advance? | This question resolves as YES if both of the following conditions are met:
1. Nikki Haley is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. This is determined solely by the selection of the delegates of the Republican National Convention, regardless of who receive... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | a531cee5-f9ae-492f-9564-bc474821290c | Will at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early? | Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A draft... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-23T22:21:43Z | false | Given at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing Biden's early nomination, will 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A draft... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) At least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early (b) 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | (a) Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A d... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | e3e3d8e4-5b1d-472f-8d23-8b20abd1b04f | Will the United Auto Workers endorse a Republican candidate for president by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the United Auto Workers (UAW) officially endorses a Republican candidate for the presidential election. The endorsement must be confirmed through official UAW statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, The New... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | If the United Auto Workers endorse a Republican candidate for president, will the U.S. announce plans for more nuclear reactors by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the United Auto Workers (UAW) officially endorses a Republican candidate for the presidential election. This endorsement is confirmed through official UAW statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times... | null | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) the United Auto Workers endorse a Republican candidate for president, and (b) the United States announce plans to build additional nuclear reactors beyond the current two? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024: (a) The United Auto Workers (UAW) officially endorses a Republican candidate for the presidential election. The endorsement must be confirmed through official UAW statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 3c050ea1-6b7a-4998-bc3d-738ea8596f56 | Will Biden remain President through end of July 2024? | Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.
Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does not cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is different... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-02T02:37:53Z | true | Conditional on Biden remaining President through the end of July 2024, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for any listed Israeli leaders before July 1, 2024? | Suppose the following is true: Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET). This resolves as YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024; resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then. Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendment (i.e. makin... | false | Will both of the following occur: (a) Biden remains President through end of July 2024, and (b) the ICC issues arrest warrants for listed Israeli leaders before July 1, 2024? | (a) Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then. Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendment (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does not cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is differe... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 37834896-f7c7-44c0-94f9-249944302072 | Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024? | This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources. | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T11:15:00Z | false | Conditional on the Prime Minister of France not belonging to New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024, will the ID political group hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? | Suppose the following is true: The Prime Minister of France belongs to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024. This will be determined if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sour... | null | Will BOTH of the following occur: (a) The Prime Minister of France will belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024 (b) The ID political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? | (a) This component resolves as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.
(b) This component resolves as Yes if the ID political group holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | bfd6fce5-a20c-40b3-a239-c8282be52a34 | Will U.S. weekly jobless claims exceed 300,000 for three consecutive weeks by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if the number of weekly initial jobless claims in the United States, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, exceeds 300,000 for three consecutive weeks at any point between now and August 31, 2024. The question will resolve as NO if this condition is not met within the specified ... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given U.S. weekly jobless claims exceed 300,000 for three consecutive weeks, will US airline mechanics remain on strike through August 2024? | This question considers the scenario where the number of weekly initial jobless claims in the United States exceeds 300,000 for three consecutive weeks at any point between now and August 31, 2024, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor. Given this situation, will airline mechanics in the United States remain on s... | null | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (a) U.S. weekly jobless claims exceed 300,000 for three consecutive weeks and (b) US airline mechanics remain on strike? | This combined question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by August 31, 2024: (a) The number of weekly initial jobless claims in the United States, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, exceeds 300,000 for three consecutive weeks at any point between now and August 31, 2024. Only off... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 0f97b33e-b51f-4172-aa17-af0adc1762e4 | Will the American Federation of Teachers endorse Kamala Harris for president by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) officially endorses Kamala Harris for the presidential election. The endorsement must be confirmed through official AFT statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, The ... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | true | Given the AFT endorses Kamala Harris, will the UK lower student loan payments by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) officially endorses Kamala Harris for the presidential election. The endorsement is confirmed through official AFT statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Tim... | false | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) The American Federation of Teachers endorses Kamala Harris for president, and (b) The UK Education Department implements a plan to lower student loan payments? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by July 31, 2024: (a) The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) officially endorses Kamala Harris for the presidential election, confirmed through official AFT statements or reported by at least two reputable news sources (such as Associated ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 26a976a8-17e4-49ff-a4f1-9e0f19ab265f | Will Hyundai initiate a recall of over 720,000 vehicles due to a seatbelt issue by August 2024? | This question resolves as YES if, by August 31, 2024, Hyundai has officially announced and begun the process of recalling more than 720,000 vehicles due to an issue with the seatbelt system. The recall must be specifically related to seatbelts that may not properly secure passengers, as mentioned in the National Highwa... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given Hyundai initiates a recall of over 720,000 vehicles due to a seatbelt issue by August 2024, will Hyundai's quarterly net income increase by over 20% year-over-year by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, Hyundai has officially announced and begun the process of recalling more than 720,000 vehicles due to an issue with the seatbelt system. The recall is specifically related to seatbelts that may not properly secure passengers, as mentioned in the National Highway Traffi... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Hyundai initiate a recall of over 720,000 vehicles due to a seatbelt issue by August 2024, and (b) Hyundai's quarterly net income increase by over 20% year-over-year by July 2024? | This question resolves as YES if both of the following conditions are met: (a) By August 31, 2024, Hyundai has officially announced and begun the process of recalling more than 720,000 vehicles due to an issue with the seatbelt system. The recall must be specifically related to seatbelts that may not properly secure pa... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 9bb252aa-abc1-46a4-8eeb-be3607d77ad4 | Will the Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy rate remain at or above 14.00% in August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if the Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy rate is reported to be at or above 14.00% at any point during August 2024. Confirmation must come from official Central Bank of Nigeria announcements or at least two reputable financial news sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Guardia... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | true | Conditional on Nigeria's monetary policy rate staying at or above 14.00%, will Italy's Senate pass a major economic reform bill opposed by Prime Minister Meloni by August 2024? | This question explores the relationship between Nigeria's monetary policy and legislative actions in Italy.
Suppose the following is true: The Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy rate remains at or above 14.00% throughout August 2024. This requires confirmation from official Central Bank of Nigeria announcement... | false | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (a) the Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy rate remains at or above 14.00% in August 2024, and (b) Italy's Senate passes a major economic reform bill opposed by Prime Minister Meloni? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met:
(a) The Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy rate is reported to be at or above 14.00% at any point during August 2024. Confirmation must come from official Central Bank of Nigeria announcements or at least two reputable financial news... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 7cf7b659-461c-4132-97cd-8f50d41615a9 | Will Harvest Moon Produce be officially linked to a new salmonella outbreak by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, Harvest Moon Produce is officially linked to a new salmonella outbreak that is different from any previously reported outbreaks. The link must be confirmed by U.S. federal health officials (such as the CDC or FDA) and reported by at least two reputable news source... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given Harvest Moon Produce is linked to a new salmonella outbreak by July 2024, will the FTC complete a major pricing practices investigation by then? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, Harvest Moon Produce is officially linked to a new salmonella outbreak that is different from any previously reported outbreaks. The link is confirmed by U.S. federal health officials (such as the CDC or FDA) and reported by at least two reputable news sources (e.g., Ass... | null | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (a) Harvest Moon Produce being officially linked to a new salmonella outbreak, and (b) the FTC announcing completion of a major pricing practices investigation? | This question resolves as YES if both of the following events occur by July 31, 2024: (a) Harvest Moon Produce is officially linked to a new salmonella outbreak that is different from any previously reported outbreaks. The link must be confirmed by U.S. federal health officials (such as the CDC or FDA) and reported by ... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 340c1422-f2ca-4a76-8466-9011256ce4ca | Will Indiana enact a new law modifying restrictions on medical care for transgender youth by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the state of Indiana enacts a new law that modifies or replaces the current restrictions on medical care for transgender youth. The enactment must be confirmed through official state legislative records and reported by at least two major news outlets (such as Asso... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on Indiana enacting a new law modifying restrictions on medical care for transgender youth by July 2024, will Wisconsin enact new abortion regulations stricter than those for other healthcare providers by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the state of Indiana enacts a new law that modifies or replaces the current restrictions on medical care for transgender youth. This enactment is confirmed through official state legislative records and reported by at least two major news outlets. The new law specificall... | null | Will both of the following occur by July 2024: (1) Indiana enacts a new law modifying restrictions on medical care for transgender youth, and (2) Wisconsin enacts new abortion regulations stricter than those for other healthcare providers? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following occur by July 31, 2024: (1) The state of Indiana enacts a new law that modifies or replaces the current restrictions on medical care for transgender youth. The enactment must be confirmed through official state legislative records and reported by at least two m... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 297f1b5c-d0fc-41c9-ab5e-839cd35990bd | Will Asa Hutchinson be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Asa Hutchinson is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently considered; other options may be added in the future.
... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-01T04:00:00Z | false | Conditional on Asa Hutchinson being the Republican nominee, will 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | Suppose the following is true: Asa Hutchinson is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. This is not restricted to current candidates and is determined by the delegates of the Republican National Convention.
Then, is it true that 10 or more Democratic Senato... | null | Will Asa Hutchinson be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election and will 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of the following occur: (a) Asa Hutchinson is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and (b) 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before midnight July 20 Central Time.
For (a), it is not re... | false |
2028_cond.jsonl | c8609e9c-2f21-4076-ab1a-ee2fb8cd3528 | Will the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the Supreme Court of the United States issues a ruling on a case specifically involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence. The ruling must be officially documented in the court's records. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | GIVEN the Supreme Court rules on AI ethics, will a new method for reducing nuclear waste impact be developed by 2028? | Suppose the following is true: The Supreme Court of the United States issues a ruling on a case specifically involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, and this ruling is officially documented in the court's records. Then, will a new method for reducing the enviro... | null | Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States rules on a case involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence (b) A new method for reducing nuclear waste impact on the environment is developed and commercially implemented? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following occur between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028: (a) The Supreme Court of the United States issues a ruling on a case specifically involving the ethical use of artificial intelligence, with the ruling officially documented in the court's records. (b) A... | null |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | e660ff2a-0028-4680-a55a-5ba17f0c2f84 | Will TikTok announce additional layoffs beyond the initially reported 10% by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if TikTok officially announces further layoffs beyond the initially reported 10% of its workforce by August 31, 2024. The announcement must be confirmed through official company statements or reports from at least two reputable news sources (such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, or The Wal... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | true | Given TikTok announces additional layoffs beyond the initially reported 10% by August 2024, will the Central Bank of Malaysia announce a reduction in its key interest rate by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: TikTok officially announces further layoffs beyond the initially reported 10% of its workforce by August 31, 2024. This must be confirmed through official company statements or reports from at least two reputable news sources (such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, or The Wall Street Journal).... | false | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (a) TikTok announces additional layoffs beyond the initially reported 10%, and (b) the Central Bank of Malaysia announces a reduction in its key interest rate? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by August 31, 2024: (a) TikTok officially announces further layoffs beyond the initially reported 10% of its workforce. The announcement must be confirmed through official company statements or reports from at least two reputable news sources... | false |
2028_cond.jsonl | 5552516f-1f5a-409d-a117-5b2a1bbed521 | Will Spain officially announce the construction of a new nuclear power plant before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Spain officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant between October 1, 2024 and January 1, 2028. The announcement must be made through official government channels and documented in public records. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Conditional on Spain officially announcing the construction of a new nuclear power plant before January 1, 2028, will Switzerland hold a national referendum on adopting a universal basic income before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: Spain officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. This announcement must be made through official government channels and documented in public records. Then, will Switzerland hold a national referendum on adopting a univ... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) Spain officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant, and (b) Switzerland holds a national referendum on adopting a universal basic income? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following occur: (a) Spain officially announces the construction of a new nuclear power plant between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The announcement must be made through official government channels and documented in public records. (b) Switzerland holds a ... | null |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | db866c0e-159f-4e2d-b4a7-d936db64b2d9 | Will Cruise's robotaxis be available on Ola's ride-hailing service in India by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, Cruise's autonomous vehicles (robotaxis) are confirmed to be operational and available for passenger rides through Ola's ride-hailing service in at least one Indian city. Confirmation must come from official statements by either Cruise or Ola, or reports from at... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given Cruise's robotaxis are available on Ola in India by August 2024, will the RBI impose new curbs on IndusInd Bank? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, Cruise's autonomous vehicles (robotaxis) are confirmed to be operational and available for passenger rides through Ola's ride-hailing service in at least one Indian city. Confirmation must come from official statements by either Cruise or Ola, or reports from at least ... | null | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (a) Cruise's robotaxis be available on Ola's ride-hailing service in India, and (b) the Reserve Bank of India impose new regulatory curbs on IndusInd Bank's lending? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by August 31, 2024:
(a) Cruise's autonomous vehicles (robotaxis) are confirmed to be operational and available for passenger rides through Ola's ride-hailing service in at least one Indian city. Confirmation must come from official statement... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 220e71e2-0a24-4b1b-967e-eb183ca56bcf | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.c... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-12T17:05:00Z | true | Given the US maximum weekly hospitalization rate peaks within four weeks of the combined peak, will 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | Suppose the following is true: The maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the US during the 2023-24 season occurs within four weeks of the combined peak for all three, as per CDC's RESP-NET data. This is based on epidemiological weeks, considering the season from Oc... | false | Will both of the following occur: (a) the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season, and (b) 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20? | (a) This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://w... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 0530df51-1194-4d76-9a37-f864313fb6df | Will Buenos Aires announce plans to restrict short-term rental units by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the city government of Buenos Aires officially announces plans or regulations aimed at restricting or limiting the availability of short-term rental units (such as those typically listed on platforms like Airbnb) within the city. The announcement must come from an... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given Buenos Aires announces plans to restrict short-term rental units by July 2024, will the People's Bank of China announce a reduction in its key interest rate by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By July 31, 2024, the city government of Buenos Aires officially announces plans or regulations aimed at restricting or limiting the availability of short-term rental units within the city. This announcement must come from an official source within Buenos Aires's local government and be r... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Buenos Aires announces plans to restrict short-term rental units by July 2024 (b) The People's Bank of China announces a reduction in its key interest rate by August 2024? | (a) This part will resolve as YES if, by July 31, 2024, the city government of Buenos Aires officially announces plans or regulations aimed at restricting or limiting the availability of short-term rental units (such as those typically listed on platforms like Airbnb) within the city. The announcement must come from an... | false |
2028_cond.jsonl | 07e28943-107c-4d43-a32e-9c47ae17f5f5 | Will Switzerland's GDP per capita exceed $100,000 by January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if Switzerland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, as reported by the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF), exceeds $100,000 at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The GDP per capita figure must be verifiable through the official statisti... | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given Switzerland's GDP per capita exceeds $100,000 by January 1, 2028, will Virginia's GDP grow by more than 15% in the same period? | Suppose the following is true: Switzerland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, as reported by the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF), exceeds $100,000 at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, with the GDP per capita figure verifiable through the official statistics of the World... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Switzerland's GDP per capita exceed $100,000 by January 1, 2028, and (b) Virginia's GDP grow by more than 15% between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following conditions are met: (a) Switzerland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, as reported by the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF), exceeds $100,000 at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The GDP per capita figure mu... | null |
scraped_cond.jsonl | c9c1562b-ee70-4d92-b3c0-15fb0593d37e | Will at least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024? | [image]Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask "has weak AGI been achieved," rather than providing a definition of the term. The goal is that given that the term is so broad, the on... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-31T10:45:57Z | false | Given at least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024, will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. These polls ask "has weak AGI been achieved," without defining the term, allowing respondents to vote based on their own understanding. The July 2024 poll will resolve to YES if the ratio of YES/(NO + YES) is greater than o... | null | Will both of the following occur: (1) At least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024, and (2) Diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | (1) Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. The polls ask "has weak AGI been achieved," allowing respondents to vote based upon their own understanding. Progress has been steady with previous poll results increasing over time. The July 2024 poll will resolve YES ... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 67c6c4c8-63ab-41b9-8d12-826d4daa30b1 | Will Latvia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Latvia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Latvia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**. | synthetic_inst | 2024-05-09T21:19:00Z | true | If Latvia qualifies for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024, will Poland also qualify? | Suppose the following is true: Latvia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. Then is it also true that Poland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (E... | false | Will both Latvia and Poland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both Latvia and Poland participate in their respective Semi-finals and are officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If either Latvia or Poland or both do not qualify, the question will resolve as **No*... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | db3b74d0-56b9-459a-b24f-0a22cced5777 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.
... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-15T04:01:00Z | false | Given Joe Biden announces before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination, will he still be president by the end of July? | Suppose the following is true: Before 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement that he will not seek and will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for another term as President in the 2024 cycle. This statement must be unambiguous and conclusive... | null | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President, and will he still be president by the end of July 2024? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of the following occur: (a) Prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement that he will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 1d400ad8-b912-4292-a1df-f544ad654e00 | Will the WHO declare the Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa no longer a global emergency by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares that the Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa is no longer considered a global emergency. For a YES resolution:
1. The WHO must make a public announcement explicitly stating that the Rift Valley fever... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on the WHO declaring the Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa no longer a global emergency, will Hormel Foods issue a recall of deli meats due to a listeria outbreak by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares that the Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa is no longer considered a global emergency. This declaration must be reported by at least two major international news outlets and must specifically refer to the ... | null | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (1) the WHO declares the Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa no longer a global emergency, and (2) Hormel Foods issues a recall of deli meats due to a listeria outbreak? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following occur by August 31, 2024:
1. The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares that the Rift Valley fever outbreak in East Africa is no longer considered a global emergency. For this part to resolve as YES:
- The WHO must make a public announcement ex... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | f4b12698-64f2-4d11-aee0-8caaad448da2 | Will Sara Lee issue a recall of packaged meats due to a listeria outbreak by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, Sara Lee officially announces a recall of any of its packaged meat products due to a listeria outbreak. The recall must be confirmed through at least one of the following sources:
1. An official announcement on Sara Lee's website or social media channels
2. A p... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Given Sara Lee issues a recall due to listeria, will the E. coli outbreak tied to lettuce result in more than 10 deaths by August 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, Sara Lee officially announces a recall of any of its packaged meat products due to a listeria outbreak. The recall must be confirmed through at least one of the following sources:
1. An official announcement on Sara Lee's website or social media channels
2. A press re... | null | Will both of the following occur by August 2024: (a) Sara Lee issues a recall of packaged meats due to a listeria outbreak, and (b) the E. coli outbreak tied to lettuce results in more than 10 confirmed deaths? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met by August 31, 2024:
(a) Sara Lee officially announces a recall of any of its packaged meat products due to a listeria outbreak. The recall must be confirmed through at least one of the following sources:
1. An official announcement on Sar... | false |
scraped_cond.jsonl | ab00f438-9a30-4c2f-83ea-1daa1bbfbc51 | Will Joe Biden have an in-person interview/conversation on camera for 45+ minutes, before the end of July 2024? | The most recent qualifying interview was Biden's appearance on The Howard Stern Show in April, when Biden answered questions for ~70 minutes.
If Biden appears in another such in-person interview for at least 45 minutes, this market resolves YES. If no qualifying interview is released before market close at the end of... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-01T14:03:51Z | false | Conditional on Joe Biden having an in-person interview for 45+ minutes before the end of July 2024, will Ted Cruz be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Suppose the following is true: Joe Biden has an in-person interview or conversation on camera for at least 45 minutes before the end of July 2024. This does not include press conferences, speeches, rallies, fundraisers, town halls, etc. It can include appearances on a podcast or late night show, or an interview edited ... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Joe Biden will have an in-person interview/conversation on camera for 45+ minutes before the end of July 2024 (b) Ted Cruz will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | (a) Joe Biden will have an in-person interview/conversation on camera for 45+ minutes before the end of July 2024. The most recent qualifying interview was Biden's appearance on The Howard Stern Show in April, when Biden answered questions for ~70 minutes. If Biden appears in another such in-person interview for at lea... | false |
2028_cond.jsonl | 5a51286a-e786-493a-9fa9-baa146e6f543 | Will France reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% from 2005 levels by January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if France reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% from 2005 levels at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The data must be reported by a reputable source such as the French Ministry for the Ecological Transition or the European Environment Agency ... | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given France reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% from 2005 levels by January 1, 2028, will Russia officially withdraw from the Paris Agreement before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: France reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% from 2005 levels at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The data must be reported by a reputable source such as the French Ministry for the Ecological Transition or the European Environment Agency (EEA).
The... | null | Will both of the following occur by January 1, 2028: (a) France reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% from 2005 levels, and (b) Russia officially withdraws from the Paris Agreement? | (a) France must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 35% from 2005 levels at any point between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. The data must be reported by a reputable source such as the French Ministry for the Ecological Transition or the European Environment Agency (EEA). (b) Russia must officially n... | null |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 876a4b2f-8b67-411d-b274-2f86126d826b | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-11T11:00:00Z | true | Conditional on at least 5 countries winning their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games, will 538 project Biden as the favorite on July 19, 2024? | Suppose the following is true: At least 5 countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to credible sources. Then, will Joe Biden have a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19,... | false | Will both of the following occur: (a) At least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games (b) 538 Projects Biden as the favorite on Friday? | This question resolves as **Yes** if both of the following conditions are met: (1) At least 5 countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions); (2) Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential electi... | false |
2028_cond.jsonl | 2fc82bfd-08e1-49f6-ac77-89c962866183 | Will the United States pass a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management before January 1, 2028? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if, between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the United States passes a federal law specifically aimed at regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management. The law must be officially enacted and documented in US federal legal records. | synthetic_inst | 2028-01-01T00:00:00Z | null | Given the United States passes a federal law regulating the ethical use of AI in energy management before January 1, 2028, will Canada implement a nationwide AI policy before January 1, 2028? | Suppose the following is true: The United States passes a federal law specifically aimed at regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028. This law must be officially enacted and documented in US federal legal records.
Then, is it true that Cana... | null | Will both of the following occur before January 1, 2028: (a) The United States passes a federal law regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management, and (b) Canada implements a nationwide artificial intelligence policy? | This question will be resolved as 'Yes' if both of the following occur: (a) Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2028, the United States passes a federal law specifically aimed at regulating the ethical use of artificial intelligence in energy management, and the law is officially enacted and documented in US federa... | null |
scraped_cond.jsonl | 7f5f5750-709d-4932-b0c7-165091cd5630 | Will at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early? | Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A draft... | synthetic_inst | 2024-07-23T22:21:43Z | false | If at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the early nomination plan, will Larry Elder be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A draft... | null | Will at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early, and will Larry Elder be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | (a) At least 20 House Members or Senators who caucus with the Democratic Party must sign a public letter opposing the early nomination plan before market close at the end of Sunday, July 21st. This can be a single letter or multiple letters with a combined total of 20 signatures. (b) Larry Elder must be selected by the... | false |
newsapi_cond.jsonl | 77de27f8-014b-43fc-8212-d3a99d132353 | Will Michigan hold a referendum on minimum wage increase by August 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if, by August 31, 2024, the state of Michigan officially conducts a public referendum specifically focused on increasing the minimum wage in the state. The referendum must be officially announced by the Michigan Secretary of State or other appropriate state election authority, and must... | synthetic_inst | 2024-08-31T23:59:59Z | false | Conditional on Michigan holding a referendum on minimum wage increase by August 2024, will President Biden deliver a speech at a National Education Association event in Washington, D.C. by July 2024? | Suppose the following is true: By August 31, 2024, the state of Michigan officially conducts a public referendum specifically focused on increasing the minimum wage. The referendum must be officially announced by the Michigan Secretary of State or other appropriate state election authority, and must be scheduled to tak... | null | Will both of the following occur: (a) Michigan holds a referendum on minimum wage increase by August 2024 (b) President Biden delivers a speech at a National Education Association event in Washington, D.C. by July 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if both of the following conditions are met: (a) By August 31, 2024, the state of Michigan officially conducts a public referendum specifically focused on increasing the minimum wage in the state. The referendum must be officially announced by the Michigan Secretary of State or other a... | false |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
No dataset card yet
- Downloads last month
- 5