question_triple_id stringlengths 11 12 | generator_model stringclasses 7
values | iteration int64 1 13 | hypothesis stringlengths 74 310 | topic stringlengths 6 46 ⌀ | reasoning_flaw stringclasses 15
values | consistency_score float64 0.3 1.05 | generation_reasoning stringclasses 2
values | P_title stringlengths 43 149 | P_body stringlengths 108 441 | P_avg_forecast float64 0.07 0.95 | P_individual_forecasts stringlengths 25 30 | Q_given_P_title stringlengths 56 248 | Q_given_P_body stringlengths 112 631 | Q_given_P_avg_forecast float64 0.05 0.92 | Q_given_P_individual_forecasts stringlengths 25 30 | P_and_Q_title stringlengths 46 277 | P_and_Q_body stringlengths 129 792 | P_and_Q_avg_forecast float64 0.1 0.86 | P_and_Q_individual_forecasts stringlengths 25 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
iter10_h0_q0 | llama_70b | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of advancements in quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | AI and Computing | null | 0.428827 | null | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028, as reported by Google's official blog or other credible sources like MIT Technology Review. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, MIT Technology Review, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution date: Dece... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or other credible sources like Harvard Business Revie... | 0.42 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, as reported by Google's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences, or other credible sources like... | 0.576 | [0.42, 0.6, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter10_h0_q0 | llama_8b | 10 | The model assumes a strong correlation between the development of quantum computing and the advancement of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) without considering the impact of regulatory frameworks and ethical concerns on their joint development | AI and Computing | null | 0.462914 | null | Will Google announce a major breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google officially announces a major breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2028, as reported by Google's official blog or reputable tech outlets like The Verge. Resolution source: Google's official blog or The Verge. | 0.498 | [0.65, 0.35, 0.65, 0.42, 0.42] | Given that Google announces a major breakthrough in quantum computing, will Microsoft integrate quantum computing into its AGI research by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft officially announces the integration of quantum computing into its AGI research by December 31, 2029, as reported by Microsoft's official blog or reputable tech outlets like TechCrunch. Resolution source: Microsoft's official blog or TechCrunch. | 0.552 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.42, 0.42, 0.62] | Will both Google announce a major breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and Microsoft integrate quantum computing into its AGI research by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by Google's official blog and Microsoft's official blog. Resolution date: December 31, 2029. Resolution source: Google's official blog and Microsoft's official blog. | 0.562 | [0.56, 0.8, 0.45, 0.45, 0.55] |
iter10_h0_q1 | llama_70b | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of advancements in quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | AI and Computing | null | 0.531578 | null | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030, as reported by Microsoft's official blog or other credible sources like The Verge. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Microsoft, The Verge, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution ... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given Microsoft's development of a quantum computer, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, given Microsoft's development of a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or othe... | 0.38 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.32, 0.32] | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, as reported by Microsoft's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences,... | 0.606 | [0.45, 0.62, 0.72, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter10_h0_q1 | o1_mini | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of advancements in quantum computing on the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in complex problem-solving, particularly in the context of cryogenic computing and neuromorphic architectures. | AI and Computing | null | 0.338176 | null | Will the number of research papers on quantum computing and AGI published in top-tier conferences increase by more than 40% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the number of research papers on quantum computing and AGI published in top-tier conferences increases by more than 40% in 2028, as reported by credible sources such as academic journals, research institutions, or conference proceedings. | 0.58 | [0.55, 0.65, 0.55, 0.5, 0.65] | Given an increase in research papers on quantum computing and AGI, will the development of practical applications of AGI in industries such as finance and healthcare accelerate by at least 20% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of practical applications of AGI in industries such as finance and healthcare accelerates by at least 20% in the next 3 years, as reported by credible sources such as industry reports, research institutions, or tech companies, and measured by the number of successful dep... | 0.39 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.25, 0.75, 0.25] | Will the number of research papers on quantum computing and AGI published in top-tier conferences increase by more than 40% in 2028 and the development of practical applications of AGI in industries such as finance and healthcare accelerate by at least 20% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of research papers on quantum computing and AGI published in top-tier conferences increases by more than 40% in 2028, as reported by credible sources, and the development of practical applications of AGI in industries such as finance and healthcare ac... | 0.43 | [0.6, 0.55, 0.25, 0.1, 0.65] |
iter10_h0_q1 | sonnet | 10 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of quantum computing and the improvement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing | AI and Computing | null | 0.604199 | null | Will Microsoft develop a functional quantum computer that can process natural language inputs by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has developed a functional quantum computer that can process natural language inputs by 2028. | 0.15 | [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that Microsoft develops a functional quantum computer, will the company's AGI technology achieve a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's AGI technology has achieved a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030, as measured by a standardized NLP benchmarking test. | 0.33 | [0.15, 0.35, 0.35, 0.45, 0.35] | Will Microsoft develop a functional quantum computer and achieve a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has developed a functional quantum computer that can process natural language inputs by 2028, and the company's AGI technology achieves a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030, as measured by a... | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter10_h1_q0 | gpt-4o | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets | Geopolitics and Energy | null | 0.42785 | null | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 80% in 2030? | This question resolves as YES if China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 80% in 2030, as reported by China's official website or reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistics of China or the International Energy Agency (IEA). | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Given that China increases its investment in renewable energy, will the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 30% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 30% by December 31, 2035, as reported by reputable sources like the IEA or the Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 0.39 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.45, 0.45, 0.35] | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 80% in 2030 and the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 30% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 80% in 2030, and the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 30% by December 31, 2035, as reported by China's official website, reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistics... | 0.37 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.45, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter10_h1_q0 | llama_70b | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of genetic engineering on crop yields in developing countries, particularly in the context of drought-resistant crops | Genetic Engineering | null | 0.503991 | null | Will the African Union implement policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the African Union implements policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029, as reported by the African Union's official website or other credible sources like the African Agricultural Technology Foundation. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the Afric... | 0.62 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] | Given the policies, will the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increase by 30% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increases by 30% by 2032, given the implementation of policies by the African Union to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture, as reported by the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture or other credible... | 0.62 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] | Will the African Union implement policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029 and the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increase by 30% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both the African Union implements policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029 and the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increases by 30% by 2032, as reported by the African Union's official website, the Ethiopian Ministr... | 0.7 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.62, 0.72] |
iter10_h1_q0 | o1_mini | 10 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of 5G networks and the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, particularly in the context of smart cities and industrial automation. | Telecommunications | null | 0.399193 | null | Will the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increase by more than 50% in 2027 compared to 2026? | This question resolves as YES if the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increases by more than 50% in 2027 compared to 2026, as reported by reputable sources such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) or industry reports. | 0.2 | [0.3, 0.35, 0.15, 0.1, 0.1] | Given an increase in 5G subscriptions, will the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increase by more than 30% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increases by more than 30% in 2028, as reported by credible sources such as market research firms or industry reports. | 0.814 | [0.8, 0.8, 0.85, 0.82, 0.8] | Will the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increase by more than 50% in 2027 compared to 2026 and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increase by more than 30% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increases by more than 50% in 2027 compared to 2026, as reported by reputable sources, and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increases by more than 30% in 2028, as reported by credible sources. | 0.4 | [0.75, 0.15, 0.25, 0.2, 0.65] |
iter10_h1_q1 | o1_mini | 10 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of 5G networks and the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, particularly in the context of smart cities and industrial automation. | Telecommunications | null | 0.466194 | null | Will Qualcomm's revenue from 5G-related products increase by more than 25% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Qualcomm's revenue from 5G-related products increases by more than 25% in 2028, as reported by Qualcomm's official financial reports or reputable tech news sources. | 0.64 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.6, 0.35, 0.75] | Given an increase in Qualcomm's 5G-related revenue, will the company's investment in IoT research and development increase by at least 20% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if Qualcomm's investment in IoT research and development increases by at least 20% in the next 2 years, as reported by Qualcomm's official financial reports or reputable tech news sources. | 0.7 | [0.8, 0.65, 0.65, 0.75, 0.65] | Will Qualcomm's revenue from 5G-related products increase by more than 25% in 2028 and the company's investment in IoT research and development increase by at least 20% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Qualcomm's revenue from 5G-related products increases by more than 25% in 2028, as reported by Qualcomm's official financial reports or reputable tech news sources, and the company's investment in IoT research and development increases by at least 20% in the nex... | 0.74 | [0.8, 0.65, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75] |
iter10_h2_q0 | gpt-4o | 10 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion | Social Media and Fashion | null | 0.333652 | null | Will the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increase by more than 150% in 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increases by more than 150% in 2029, as reported by Instagram's official analytics tool or reputable social media sources like Hootsuite. | 0.45 | [0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45] | Given an increase in Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion, will the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 40% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 40% by December 31, 2031, as reported by reputable sources like the Sustainable Fashion Coalition or the Global Fashion Agenda. | 0.74 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.7, 0.75] | Will the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increase by more than 150% in 2029 and the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 40% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increases by more than 150% in 2029, and the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 40% by December 31, 2031, as reported by Instagram's official analytics tool, reputable s... | 0.55 | [0.65, 0.55, 0.45, 0.65, 0.45] |
iter10_h2_q0 | llama_70b | 10 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on company-specific sales, particularly in the context of electric vehicle manufacturing | Social Media and Sales | null | 0.424305 | null | Will the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increase by 25% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increases by 25% in 2026, as reported by Twitter's official analytics or other credible sources like Hootsuite. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Twitter, Hootsuite, or other reputable social media analytics sources. Resolution... | 0.452 | [0.62, 0.32, 0.32, 0.6, 0.4] | Given the increase in followers, will Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026, given the increase in followers of Tesla's Twitter account, as reported by Tesla's official earnings reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Tesla, Bloomberg, or other reputable financial news ou... | 0.372 | [0.42, 0.35, 0.35, 0.42, 0.32] | Will the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increase by 25% in 2026 and Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if both the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increases by 25% in 2026 and Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026, as reported by Twitter's official analytics, Tesla's official earnings reports, or other credible sources like Hootsuite or Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Officia... | 0.41 | [0.49, 0.3, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] |
iter10_h2_q0 | o1_mini | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of genetic engineering on the development of new medical treatments for complex diseases, particularly in the context of CRISPR gene editing and regenerative medicine. | Biotechnology | null | 0.503118 | null | Will the number of genetic engineering startups focused on treating complex diseases increase by more than 30% in 2029 compared to 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the number of genetic engineering startups focused on treating complex diseases increases by more than 30% in 2029 compared to 2028, as reported by reputable sources such as venture capital firms, startup accelerators, or industry reports. | 0.19 | [0.25, 0.15, 0.25, 0.15, 0.15] | Given an increase in genetic engineering startups focused on treating complex diseases, will the development of new medical treatments for rare genetic disorders accelerate by at least 20% in the next 5 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of new medical treatments for rare genetic disorders accelerates by at least 20% in the next 5 years, as reported by credible sources such as academic journals, research institutions, or pharmaceutical companies, and measured by the number of research papers, patents, or... | 0.73 | [0.8, 0.65, 0.8, 0.65, 0.75] | Will the number of genetic engineering startups focused on treating complex diseases increase by more than 30% in 2029 compared to 2028 and the development of new medical treatments for rare genetic disorders accelerate by at least 20% in the next 5 years? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of genetic engineering startups focused on treating complex diseases increases by more than 30% in 2029 compared to 2028, as reported by reputable sources, and the development of new medical treatments for rare genetic disorders accelerates by at leas... | 0.43 | [0.25, 0.6, 0.55, 0.5, 0.25] |
iter10_h2_q1 | gpt-4o | 10 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion | Social Media and Fashion | null | 0.407349 | null | Will Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 70% in 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 70% in 2030, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoor Industry Association. | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Given an increase in Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing, will the company's overall revenue exceed $6 billion by 2034? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's overall revenue exceeds $6 billion by December 31, 2034, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable financial sources like Forbes. | 0.59 | [0.45, 0.55, 0.6, 0.65, 0.7] | Will Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 70% in 2030 and the company's overall revenue exceed $6 billion by 2034? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 70% in 2030, and the company's overall revenue exceeds $6 billion by December 31, 2034, as reported by Patagonia's official website, reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoor ... | 0.45 | [0.35, 0.45, 0.45, 0.35, 0.65] |
iter10_h2_q1 | llama_8b | 10 | The model assumes a strong correlation between the adoption of renewable energy sources and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions without considering the impact of energy storage and grid infrastructure on the efficacy of renewable energy sources | Energy and Environment | null | 0.427434 | null | Will the use of renewable energy sources increase by more than 20% globally by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the use of renewable energy sources increases by more than 20% globally by December 31, 2030, as reported by the International Energy Agency or reputable energy outlets like BloombergNEF. Resolution source: International Energy Agency or BloombergNEF. | 0.79 | [0.65, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.85] | Given that the use of renewable energy sources increases by more than 20% globally, will the global greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 10% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if the global greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 10% by December 31, 2031, as reported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or reputable environmental outlets like The Guardian. Resolution source: UNFCCC or The Guardian. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will both the use of renewable energy sources increase by more than 20% globally by 2030 and the global greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 10% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by the International Energy Agency and the UNFCCC. Resolution date: December 31, 2031. Resolution source: International Energy Agency and UNFCCC. | 0.244 | [0.23, 0.23, 0.25, 0.28, 0.23] |
iter10_h2_q1 | sonnet | 10 | The model overestimates the correlation between genetic engineering and the development of new medical treatments | Biotechnology | null | 0.38902 | null | Will the FDA approve more than 10 new gene therapies for rare diseases in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if the FDA's official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the agency has approved more than 10 new gene therapies for rare diseases in 2026. | 0.53 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.35, 0.35] | Given that the FDA approves more than 10 new gene therapies, will the global gene therapy market reach $50 billion in revenue by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if a reputable market research firm (such as Grand View Research or MarketsandMarkets) reports that the global gene therapy market has reached $50 billion in revenue by 2028. | 0.75 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75] | Will the FDA approve more than 10 new gene therapies and the global gene therapy market reach $50 billion in revenue by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the FDA's official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the agency has approved more than 10 new gene therapies for rare diseases in 2026, and a reputable market research firm reports that the global gene therapy market has reached $50 billion in revenue by 2028. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] |
iter10_h3_q0 | llama_70b | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Environmental Factors and Tech Industry | null | 0.334766 | null | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union implements a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028, as reported by the European Commission's official website or other credible sources like Reuters. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the European Commission, Reuters, or other reputable news ... | 0.7 | [0.72, 0.62, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the implementation of the carbon pricing mechanism, will the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years, given the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by the European Union, as reported by Google's official reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution cr... | 0.62 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028 and the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both the European Union implements a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028 and the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years, as reported by the European Commission's official website, Google's official reports, or other credi... | 0.652 | [0.72, 0.6, 0.62, 0.72, 0.6] |
iter10_h3_q0 | sonnet | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of climate change on global food production | Climate Change | null | 0.445536 | null | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism that covers at least 80% of its emissions by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union's official website or a reputable climate news source reports that the EU has implemented a carbon pricing mechanism that covers at least 80% of its emissions by 2027. | 0.53 | [0.35, 0.65, 0.65, 0.35, 0.65] | Given that the EU implements a carbon pricing mechanism, will the EU's greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 15% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the European Environment Agency (EEA) or a reputable climate news source reports that the EU's greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by more than 15% by 2030, compared to 2025. | 0.69 | [0.65, 0.75, 0.65, 0.75, 0.65] | Will the EU implement a carbon pricing mechanism and the EU's greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 15% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union's official website or a reputable climate news source reports that the EU has implemented a carbon pricing mechanism that covers at least 80% of its emissions by 2027, and the EEA or a reputable climate news source reports that the EU's greenhouse gas emissions have d... | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] |
iter10_h3_q1 | o1_mini | 10 | The model overestimates the correlation between the adoption of electric vehicles and the development of autonomous driving technology, particularly in the context of smart cities and ride-hailing services. | Automotive | null | 0.74659 | null | Will Tesla's market share in the electric vehicle market increase by more than 15% in 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla's market share in the electric vehicle market increases by more than 15% in 2030, as reported by Tesla's official sales reports or reputable industry sources. | 0.25 | [0.2, 0.35, 0.2, 0.25, 0.25] | Given an increase in Tesla's market share, will the company's investment in autonomous driving technology increase by at least 20% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla's investment in autonomous driving technology increases by at least 20% in the next 2 years, as reported by Tesla's official financial reports or reputable tech news sources. | 0.75 | [0.8, 0.75, 0.8, 0.75, 0.65] | Will Tesla's market share in the electric vehicle market increase by more than 15% in 2030 and the company's investment in autonomous driving technology increase by at least 20% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Tesla's market share in the electric vehicle market increases by more than 15% in 2030, as reported by Tesla's official sales reports or reputable industry sources, and the company's investment in autonomous driving technology increases by at least 20% in the ne... | 0.63 | [0.7, 0.75, 0.6, 0.45, 0.65] |
iter10_h4_q0 | llama_8b | 10 | The model overgeneralizes the impact of genetic engineering on human health without considering the effects of individual genetic variations and environmental factors | Biotechnology | null | 0.608727 | null | Will the use of genetic engineering in agriculture lead to significant increases in crop yields by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the use of genetic engineering in agriculture leads to significant increases in crop yields by December 31, 2029, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture or reputable agricultural outlets like AgWeb. Resolution source: US Department of Agriculture or AgWeb. | 0.75 | [0.85, 0.65, 0.75, 0.85, 0.65] | Given that genetic engineering in agriculture leads to significant increases in crop yields, will the increased yields lead to decreased food prices by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the increased crop yields resulting from genetic engineering lead to decreased food prices by December 31, 2030, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics or reputable news outlets like CNBC. Resolution source: Bureau of Labor Statistics or CNBC. | 0.364 | [0.42, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Will both genetic engineering in agriculture lead to significant increases in crop yields by 2029 and the increased yields lead to decreased food prices by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Resolution date: December 31, 2030. Resolution source: US Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.65 | [0.75, 0.65, 0.55, 0.65, 0.65] |
iter10_h4_q0 | o1_mini | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental policies on the financial performance of companies in the energy sector, particularly in the context of renewable energy and carbon pricing. | Energy | null | 0.487596 | null | Will the price of solar energy decrease by more than 15% in 2030 compared to 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the price of solar energy decreases by more than 15% in 2030 compared to 2029, as reported by reputable sources such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) or industry reports. | 0.2 | [0.25, 0.2, 0.2, 0.15, 0.2] | Given a decrease in solar energy prices, will the adoption of solar energy increase by at least 20% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the adoption of solar energy increases by at least 20% in the next 2 years, as reported by credible sources such as academic journals, research institutions, or industry reports. | 0.73 | [0.85, 0.8, 0.6, 0.75, 0.65] | Will the price of solar energy decrease by more than 15% in 2030 compared to 2029 and the adoption of solar energy increase by at least 20% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the price of solar energy decreases by more than 15% in 2030 compared to 2029, as reported by reputable sources, and the adoption of solar energy increases by at least 20% in the next 2 years, as reported by credible sources. | 0.43 | [0.75, 0.25, 0.25, 0.65, 0.25] |
iter10_h4_q0 | sonnet | 10 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the improvement of natural language processing (NLP) in chatbots | AI and Computing | null | 0.375521 | null | Will Alphabet's AI subsidiary, DeepMind, develop a new AI model that surpasses human performance in a complex task in 2025? | This question resolves as YES if DeepMind's official website or a reputable AI news source (such as The Verge or Wired) reports that the company has developed a new AI model that surpasses human performance in a complex task in 2025. | 0.69 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.75, 0.75, 0.65] | Given that DeepMind develops a new AI model, will Alphabet's chatbot technology achieve a 20% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if Alphabet's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's chatbot technology has achieved a 20% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027, as measured by a standardized NLP benchmarking test. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will DeepMind develop a new AI model and Alphabet's chatbot technology achieve a 20% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if DeepMind's official website or a reputable AI news source reports that the company has developed a new AI model that surpasses human performance in a complex task in 2025, and Alphabet's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's chatbot technology has a... | 0.69 | [0.65, 0.75, 0.65, 0.65, 0.75] |
iter10_h4_q1 | o1_mini | 10 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental policies on the financial performance of companies in the energy sector, particularly in the context of renewable energy and carbon pricing. | Energy | null | 0.318277 | null | Will the European Union's carbon pricing mechanism increase by more than 20% in 2031? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union's carbon pricing mechanism increases by more than 20% in 2031, as reported by the European Union's official website or reputable news sources. | 0.68 | [0.7, 0.65, 0.6, 0.75, 0.7] | Given an increase in carbon pricing, will the investment in renewable energy increase by at least 25% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if the investment in renewable energy increases by at least 25% in the next 3 years, as reported by credible sources such as industry reports, research institutions, or financial news sources. | 0.696 | [0.75, 0.68, 0.65, 0.7, 0.7] | Will the European Union's carbon pricing mechanism increase by more than 20% in 2031 and the investment in renewable energy increase by at least 25% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the European Union's carbon pricing mechanism increases by more than 20% in 2031, as reported by the European Union's official website or reputable news sources, and the investment in renewable energy increases by at least 25% in the next 3 years, as reported by... | 0.68 | [0.6, 0.75, 0.7, 0.7, 0.65] |
iter11_h0_q0 | llama_70b | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | AI and Computing | null | 0.468883 | null | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028, as reported by Google's official blog or other credible sources like MIT Technology Review. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, MIT Technology Review, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution date: Dece... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or other credible sources like Harvard Business Revie... | 0.42 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, as reported by Google's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences, or other credible sources like... | 0.6 | [0.62, 0.42, 0.62, 0.72, 0.62] |
iter11_h0_q0 | sonnet | 11 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the improvement of natural language processing (NLP) in chatbots, particularly in the context of customer service | AI and Computing | null | 0.356438 | null | Will Google invest more than $10 billion in AGI research and development in 2025? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source (such as CNBC or Bloomberg) reports that the company has invested more than $10 billion in AGI research and development in 2025. | 0.21 | [0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that Google invests more than $10 billion in AGI research and development, will the company's chatbot technology achieve a 25% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's chatbot technology has achieved a 25% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027, as measured by a standardized NLP benchmarking test. | 0.706 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.65] | Will Google invest more than $10 billion in AGI research and development and achieve a 25% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has invested more than $10 billion in AGI research and development in 2025, and the company's chatbot technology achieves a 25% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2027, as measured by a standardized NLP... | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter11_h0_q1 | llama_70b | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | AI and Computing | null | 0.56505 | null | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030, as reported by Microsoft's official blog or other credible sources like The Verge. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Microsoft, The Verge, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution ... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given Microsoft's development of a quantum computer, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, given Microsoft's development of a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or othe... | 0.4 | [0.32, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, as reported by Microsoft's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences,... | 0.64 | [0.62, 0.72, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter11_h1_q0 | llama_70b | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of genetic engineering on crop yields in developing countries, particularly in the context of drought-resistant crops | Agriculture and Biotechnology | null | 0.369365 | null | Will the African Union implement policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the African Union implements policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029, as reported by the African Union's official website or other credible sources like the African Agricultural Technology Foundation. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the Afric... | 0.66 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] | Given the policies, will the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increase by 30% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increases by 30% by 2032, given the implementation of policies by the African Union to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture, as reported by the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture or other credible... | 0.62 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] | Will the African Union implement policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029 and the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increase by 30% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both the African Union implements policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029 and the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increases by 30% by 2032, as reported by the African Union's official website, the Ethiopian Ministr... | 0.648 | [0.6, 0.58, 0.72, 0.72, 0.62] |
iter11_h1_q0 | sonnet | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of quantum computing on the global economy, particularly in the context of optimization and simulation | Quantum Computing | null | 0.741006 | null | Will IBM invest more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if IBM's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has invested more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development in 2026. | 0.15 | [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that IBM invests more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development, will the company's quantum computing technology achieve a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if IBM's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's quantum computing technology has achieved a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029, as measured by a reputable market research firm. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will IBM invest more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development and achieve a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if IBM's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has invested more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development in 2026, and the company's quantum computing technology achieves a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029... | 0.51 | [0.65, 0.45, 0.65, 0.35, 0.45] |
iter11_h1_q1 | llama_70b | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of genetic engineering on crop yields in developing countries, particularly in the context of drought-resistant crops | Agriculture and Biotechnology | null | 0.314227 | null | Will the World Bank provide funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the World Bank provides funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030, as reported by the World Bank's official website or other credible sources like the International Fund for Agricultural Development. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the World Ban... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the funding, will the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increase by 25% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increases by 25% by 2035, given the funding provided by the World Bank for genetic engineering research, as reported by research papers published in top-tier agricultural conferences or other credible sources like the Foo... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Will the World Bank provide funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030 and the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increase by 25% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if both the World Bank provides funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030 and the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increases by 25% by 2035, as reported by the World Bank's official website, research papers published in top-tier a... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] |
iter11_h1_q1 | sonnet | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of quantum computing on the global economy, particularly in the context of optimization and simulation | Quantum Computing | null | 0.634959 | null | Will Google develop a functional quantum computer that can simulate complex chemical reactions by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has developed a functional quantum computer that can simulate complex chemical reactions by 2027. | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Given that Google develops a functional quantum computer, will the company's quantum computing technology achieve a 20% increase in accuracy in simulating complex chemical reactions by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's quantum computing technology has achieved a 20% increase in accuracy in simulating complex chemical reactions by 2028, as measured by a standardized benchmarking test. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will Google develop a functional quantum computer and achieve a 20% increase in accuracy in simulating complex chemical reactions by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has developed a functional quantum computer that can simulate complex chemical reactions by 2027, and the company's quantum computing technology achieves a 20% increase in accuracy in simulating complex c... | 0.61 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.45] |
iter11_h2_q0 | llama_70b | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Environment and Technology | null | 0.412599 | null | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union implements a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028, as reported by the European Commission's official website or other credible sources like Reuters. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the European Commission, Reuters, or other reputable news ... | 0.68 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the implementation of the carbon pricing mechanism, will the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years, given the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by the European Union, as reported by Google's official reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution cr... | 0.54 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.42, 0.62, 0.42] | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028 and the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both the European Union implements a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028 and the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years, as reported by the European Commission's official website, Google's official reports, or other credi... | 0.632 | [0.72, 0.62, 0.6, 0.6, 0.62] |
iter11_h3_q0 | gpt-4o | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets | Global Energy Markets | null | 0.404078 | null | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 90% in 2031? | This question resolves as YES if China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 90% in 2031, as reported by China's official website or reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistics of China or the International Energy Agency (IEA). | 0.27 | [0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.3, 0.3] | Given an increase in China's investment in renewable energy, will the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 35% by 2038? | This question resolves as YES if the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 35% by December 31, 2038, as reported by reputable sources like the IEA or the Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 0.46 | [0.65, 0.45, 0.3, 0.45, 0.45] | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 90% in 2031 and the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 35% by 2038? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 90% in 2031, and the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 35% by December 31, 2038, as reported by China's official website, reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistics... | 0.34 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.3] |
iter11_h3_q0 | llama_70b | 11 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on company-specific sales, particularly in the context of electric vehicle manufacturing | Social Media and Electric Vehicles | null | 0.587839 | null | Will the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increase by 25% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increases by 25% in 2026, as reported by Twitter's official analytics or other credible sources like Hootsuite. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Twitter, Hootsuite, or other reputable social media analytics sources. Resolution... | 0.312 | [0.3, 0.32, 0.32, 0.3, 0.32] | Given the increase in followers, will Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026, given the increase in followers of Tesla's Twitter account, as reported by Tesla's official earnings reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Tesla, Bloomberg, or other reputable financial news ou... | 0.432 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.42, 0.62, 0.42] | Will the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increase by 25% in 2026 and Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if both the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increases by 25% in 2026 and Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026, as reported by Twitter's official analytics, Tesla's official earnings reports, or other credible sources like Hootsuite or Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Officia... | 0.464 | [0.58, 0.29, 0.42, 0.45, 0.58] |
iter11_h4_q0 | llama_8b | 11 | The model overgeneralizes trends in the technology sector without considering specific company characteristics | Artificial Intelligence | null | 0.395575 | null | Will the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead to significant improvements in natural language processing by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI leads to significant improvements in natural language processing by December 31, 2029, as reported by a survey conducted by a reputable research firm like the Stanford Natural Language Processing Group or the Association for Computational Linguistics. Resolution s... | 0.544 | [0.42, 0.35, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Given that AGI leads to significant improvements in natural language processing, will the use of chatbots increase by more than 40% among customer service providers by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the use of chatbots increases by more than 40% among customer service providers by December 31, 2030, as reported by a survey conducted by a reputable research firm like the Customer Service Institute or the International Customer Service Institute. Resolution source: CSI or ICSI. | 0.7 | [0.65, 0.62, 0.75, 0.73, 0.75] | Will both AGI lead to significant improvements in natural language processing by 2029 and the use of chatbots increase by more than 40% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by a survey conducted by a reputable research firm like the Stanford Natural Language Processing Group or the Association for Computational Linguistics and a survey conducted by a reputable research firm like the Customer Service Institute or the Int... | 0.636 | [0.73, 0.65, 0.55, 0.45, 0.8] |
iter11_h4_q0 | sonnet | 11 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of quantum computing and the improvement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing | Quantum Computing and AI | null | 0.572942 | null | Will Microsoft develop a functional quantum computer that can process natural language inputs by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has developed a functional quantum computer that can process natural language inputs by 2028. | 0.15 | [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that Microsoft develops a functional quantum computer, will the company's AGI technology achieve a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's AGI technology has achieved a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030, as measured by a standardized NLP benchmarking test. | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Will Microsoft develop a functional quantum computer and achieve a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has developed a functional quantum computer that can process natural language inputs by 2028, and the company's AGI technology achieves a 30% increase in accuracy in NLP tasks by 2030, as measured by a... | 0.336 | [0.28, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter11_h4_q1 | llama_70b | 11 | The model underestimates the impact of advancements in quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | Quantum Computing and AI | null | 0.542585 | null | Will Google develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if Google develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2031, as reported by Google's official blog or other credible sources like MIT Technology Review. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, MIT Technology Review, or other reputable tech news outle... | 0.832 | [0.82, 0.82, 0.85, 0.85, 0.82] | Given Google's development of a quantum computer, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 2 years, given Google's development of a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or other c... | 0.426 | [0.62, 0.42, 0.25, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Google develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2031 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Google develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2031 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 2 years, as reported by Google's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences, or ot... | 0.7 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.62, 0.72, 0.72] |
iter11_h4_q1 | llama_8b | 11 | The model overgeneralizes trends in the technology sector without considering specific company characteristics | Cloud Computing | null | 0.341731 | null | Will Amazon's cloud computing market share increase by more than 15% by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Amazon's cloud computing market share increases by more than 15% by December 31, 2029, as reported by Canalys or reputable tech outlets like ZDNet. Resolution source: Canalys or ZDNet. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Given that Amazon's cloud computing market share increases by more than 15%, will Microsoft's cloud computing market share decrease by more than 10% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's cloud computing market share decreases by more than 10% by December 31, 2030, as reported by Canalys or reputable tech outlets like TechCrunch. Resolution source: Canalys or TechCrunch. | 0.42 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] | Will both Amazon's cloud computing market share increase by more than 15% by 2029 and Microsoft's cloud computing market share decrease by more than 10% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by Canalys. Resolution date: December 31, 2030. Resolution source: Canalys. | 0.106 | [0.12, 0.12, 0.12, 0.05, 0.12] |
iter11_h4_q1 | sonnet | 11 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of quantum computing and the improvement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing | Quantum Computing and AI | null | 0.487393 | null | Will Google invest more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has invested more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development in 2026. | 0.15 | [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that Google invests more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development, will the company's quantum computing technology achieve a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company's quantum computing technology has achieved a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029, as measured by a reputable market research firm. | 0.61 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.45] | Will Google invest more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development and achieve a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Google's official website or a reputable tech news source reports that the company has invested more than $5 billion in quantum computing research and development in 2026, and the company's quantum computing technology achieves a 25% increase in adoption among Fortune 500 companies by 2... | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter12_h0_q0 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of advancements in quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | AI and Computing | null | 0.383008 | null | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028, as reported by Google's official blog or other credible sources like MIT Technology Review. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, MIT Technology Review, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution date: Dece... | 0.7 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.62, 0.72, 0.72] | Given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or other credible sources like Harvard Business Revie... | 0.46 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.62, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, as reported by Google's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences, or other credible sources like... | 0.568 | [0.62, 0.42, 0.62, 0.62, 0.56] |
iter12_h0_q0 | llama_8b | 12 | The model assumes a strong correlation between the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the implementation of quantum computing, without considering the impact of regulatory frameworks and ethical concerns on their joint development | AI and Computing | null | 0.325829 | null | Will Google announce a major breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Google officially announces a major breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2028, as reported by Google's official blog or reputable tech outlets like The Verge. Resolution source: Google's official blog or The Verge. | 0.498 | [0.45, 0.42, 0.42, 0.55, 0.65] | Given that Google announces a major breakthrough in quantum computing, will Microsoft integrate quantum computing into its AGI research by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft officially announces the integration of quantum computing into its AGI research by December 31, 2029, as reported by Microsoft's official blog or reputable tech outlets like TechCrunch. Resolution source: Microsoft's official blog or TechCrunch. | 0.584 | [0.42, 0.65, 0.65, 0.55, 0.65] | Will both Google announce a major breakthrough in quantum computing by 2028 and Microsoft integrate quantum computing into its AGI research by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by Google's official blog and Microsoft's official blog. Resolution date: December 31, 2029. Resolution source: Google's official blog and Microsoft's official blog. | 0.496 | [0.45, 0.8, 0.38, 0.35, 0.5] |
iter12_h0_q1 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of advancements in quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing, particularly in the context of language translation | AI and Computing | null | 0.623289 | null | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030, as reported by Microsoft's official blog or other credible sources like The Verge. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Microsoft, The Verge, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution ... | 0.8 | [0.72, 0.82, 0.82, 0.82, 0.82] | Given Microsoft's development of a quantum computer, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, given Microsoft's development of a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or othe... | 0.34 | [0.32, 0.32, 0.32, 0.32, 0.42] | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2030 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, as reported by Microsoft's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences,... | 0.66 | [0.72, 0.62, 0.72, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter12_h1_q0 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of genetic engineering on crop yields in developing countries, particularly in the context of drought-resistant crops | Agriculture and Biotechnology | null | 0.314227 | null | Will the World Bank provide funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the World Bank provides funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030, as reported by the World Bank's official website or other credible sources like the International Fund for Agricultural Development. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the World Ban... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the funding, will the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increase by 25% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increases by 25% by 2035, given the funding provided by the World Bank for genetic engineering research, as reported by research papers published in top-tier agricultural conferences or other credible sources like the Foo... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Will the World Bank provide funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030 and the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increase by 25% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if both the World Bank provides funding for genetic engineering research in developing countries by 2030 and the yield of genetically engineered crops in developing countries increases by 25% by 2035, as reported by the World Bank's official website, research papers published in top-tier a... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] |
iter12_h1_q0 | llama_8b | 12 | The model overgeneralizes the impact of genetic engineering on human health, without considering the effects of individual genetic variations and environmental factors | Genetic Engineering | null | 0.301986 | null | Will the use of genetic engineering in agriculture lead to significant increases in crop yields by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the use of genetic engineering in agriculture leads to significant increases in crop yields by December 31, 2029, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture or reputable agricultural outlets like AgWeb. Resolution source: US Department of Agriculture or AgWeb. | 0.71 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.85, 0.75] | Given that genetic engineering in agriculture leads to significant increases in crop yields, will the increased yields lead to decreased food prices by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the increased crop yields resulting from genetic engineering lead to decreased food prices by December 31, 2030, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics or reputable news outlets like CNBC. Resolution source: Bureau of Labor Statistics or CNBC. | 0.444 | [0.42, 0.55, 0.35, 0.35, 0.55] | Will both genetic engineering in agriculture lead to significant increases in crop yields by 2029 and the increased yields lead to decreased food prices by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Resolution date: December 31, 2030. Resolution source: US Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.51 | [0.35, 0.55, 0.45, 0.55, 0.65] |
iter12_h1_q1 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of genetic engineering on crop yields in developing countries, particularly in the context of drought-resistant crops | Agriculture and Biotechnology | null | 0.376854 | null | Will the African Union implement policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the African Union implements policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029, as reported by the African Union's official website or other credible sources like the African Agricultural Technology Foundation. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the Afric... | 0.64 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.72] | Given the policies, will the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increase by 30% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increases by 30% by 2032, given the implementation of policies by the African Union to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture, as reported by the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture or other credible... | 0.62 | [0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] | Will the African Union implement policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029 and the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increase by 30% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both the African Union implements policies to promote the use of genetic engineering in agriculture by 2029 and the adoption of genetically engineered drought-resistant crops in Ethiopia increases by 30% by 2032, as reported by the African Union's official website, the Ethiopian Ministr... | 0.64 | [0.62, 0.72, 0.62, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter12_h2_q0 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Environmental Impact and Technology | null | 0.408879 | null | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union implements a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028, as reported by the European Commission's official website or other credible sources like Reuters. Resolution criteria: Official reports from the European Commission, Reuters, or other reputable news ... | 0.6 | [0.72, 0.62, 0.42, 0.62, 0.62] | Given the implementation of the carbon pricing mechanism, will the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years, given the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by the European Union, as reported by Google's official reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution cr... | 0.572 | [0.62, 0.42, 0.58, 0.62, 0.62] | Will the European Union implement a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028 and the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both the European Union implements a carbon pricing mechanism for the tech industry by 2028 and the operating costs of Google's European data centers increase by 12% in the next 2 years, as reported by the European Commission's official website, Google's official reports, or other credi... | 0.604 | [0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.62] |
iter12_h2_q0 | llama_8b | 12 | The model assumes a strong correlation between a country's economic growth and its technology sector's innovation, without considering the impact of government policies and regulations | Economics and Technology | null | 0.426925 | null | Will China's GDP growth rate exceed 6% by 2027? | This question resolves as YES if China's GDP growth rate exceeds 6% by December 31, 2027, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China or reputable economic outlets like Bloomberg. Resolution source: National Bureau of Statistics of China or Bloomberg. | 0.43 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.55, 0.55] | Given that China's GDP growth rate exceeds 6%, will the number of Chinese tech companies listed on the NASDAQ increase by more than 20% by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the number of Chinese tech companies listed on the NASDAQ increases by more than 20% by December 31, 2028, as reported by the NASDAQ or reputable financial outlets like CNBC. Resolution source: NASDAQ or CNBC. | 0.384 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.45, 0.35, 0.42] | Will both China's GDP growth rate exceed 6% by 2027 and the number of Chinese tech companies listed on the NASDAQ increase by more than 20% by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the NASDAQ. Resolution date: December 31, 2028. Resolution source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and NASDAQ. | 0.4075 | [0.3575, 0.42, 0.24, 0.42, 0.6] |
iter12_h2_q1 | gpt-4o | 12 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion | Sustainable Fashion | null | 0.308162 | null | Will Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 80% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 80% in 2028, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoor Industry Association. | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Given an increase in Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing, will the company's overall revenue exceed $7 billion by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's overall revenue exceeds $7 billion by December 31, 2035, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable financial sources like Forbes. | 0.64 | [0.75, 0.65, 0.45, 0.7, 0.65] | Will Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 80% in 2028 and the company's overall revenue exceed $7 billion by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 80% in 2028, and the company's overall revenue exceeds $7 billion by December 31, 2035, as reported by Patagonia's official website, reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoor ... | 0.41 | [0.45, 0.45, 0.35, 0.35, 0.45] |
iter12_h2_q1 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Environmental Impact and Technology | null | 0.799917 | null | Will Apple reduce its carbon footprint by 20% by 2027 through the use of renewable energy sources? | This question resolves as YES if Apple reduces its carbon footprint by 20% by 2027 through the use of renewable energy sources, as reported by Apple's official sustainability reports or other credible sources like Greenpeace. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Apple, Greenpeace, or other reputable environmental... | 0.78 | [0.82, 0.82, 0.82, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the reduction in carbon footprint, will Apple's revenue increase by 10% in 2028 due to improved brand image? | This question resolves as YES if Apple's revenue increases by 10% in 2028 due to improved brand image, given the reduction in carbon footprint, as reported by Apple's official earnings reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Apple, Bloomberg, or other reputable finan... | 0.242 | [0.25, 0.25, 0.23, 0.23, 0.25] | Will Apple reduce its carbon footprint by 20% by 2027 and its revenue increase by 10% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if both Apple reduces its carbon footprint by 20% by 2027 through the use of renewable energy sources and its revenue increases by 10% in 2028 due to improved brand image, as reported by Apple's official sustainability reports, Apple's official earnings reports, or other credible sources l... | 0.66 | [0.62, 0.72, 0.72, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter12_h3_q0 | gpt-4o | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets | Global Energy Markets | null | 0.488763 | null | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028, as reported by China's official website or reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistics of China or the International Energy Agency (IEA). | 0.31 | [0.3, 0.35, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3] | Given an increase in China's investment in renewable energy, will the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 25% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 25% by December 31, 2035, as reported by reputable sources like the IEA or the Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 0.4 | [0.45, 0.35, 0.35, 0.4, 0.45] | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028 and the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 25% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028, and the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 25% by December 31, 2035, as reported by China's official website, reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistic... | 0.39 | [0.35, 0.45, 0.45, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter12_h3_q0 | llama_70b | 12 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on company-specific sales, particularly in the context of electric vehicle manufacturing | Social Media and Electric Vehicles | null | 0.393188 | null | Will the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increase by 25% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increases by 25% in 2026, as reported by Twitter's official analytics or other credible sources like Hootsuite. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Twitter, Hootsuite, or other reputable social media analytics sources. Resolution... | 0.336 | [0.42, 0.32, 0.3, 0.32, 0.32] | Given the increase in followers, will Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026, given the increase in followers of Tesla's Twitter account, as reported by Tesla's official earnings reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Tesla, Bloomberg, or other reputable financial news ou... | 0.378 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.42, 0.35, 0.42] | Will the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increase by 25% in 2026 and Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if both the number of followers of Tesla's Twitter account increases by 25% in 2026 and Tesla's sales increase by 20% in 2026, as reported by Twitter's official analytics, Tesla's official earnings reports, or other credible sources like Hootsuite or Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Officia... | 0.336 | [0.35, 0.38, 0.19, 0.42, 0.34] |
iter12_h3_q1 | gpt-4o | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets | Global Energy Markets | null | 0.319069 | null | Will the European Union impose a carbon tax on fossil fuel imports by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if the European Union imposes a carbon tax on fossil fuel imports by December 31, 2029, as reported by the European Union's official website or reputable sources like the European Commission or the IEA. | 0.68 | [0.7, 0.7, 0.65, 0.7, 0.65] | Given that the European Union imposes a carbon tax on fossil fuel imports, will the global price of carbon increase by more than 30% by 2036? | This question resolves as YES if the global price of carbon increases by more than 30% by December 31, 2036, as reported by reputable sources like the IEA or the EIA. | 0.68 | [0.7, 0.75, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will the European Union impose a carbon tax on fossil fuel imports by 2029 and the global price of carbon increase by more than 30% by 2036? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the European Union imposes a carbon tax on fossil fuel imports by December 31, 2029, and the global price of carbon increases by more than 30% by December 31, 2036, as reported by the European Union's official website, reputable sources like the European Commiss... | 0.67 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.75, 0.65, 0.65] |
iter12_h3_q1 | llama_8b | 12 | The model overgeneralizes trends in the technology sector without considering specific company characteristics | Technology | null | 0.346304 | null | Will Amazon's cloud computing market share increase by more than 15% by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Amazon's cloud computing market share increases by more than 15% by December 31, 2029, as reported by Canalys or reputable tech outlets like ZDNet. Resolution source: Canalys or ZDNet. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Given that Amazon's cloud computing market share increases by more than 15%, will Microsoft's cloud computing market share decrease by more than 10% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft's cloud computing market share decreases by more than 10% by December 31, 2030, as reported by Canalys or reputable tech outlets like TechCrunch. Resolution source: Canalys or TechCrunch. | 0.424 | [0.45, 0.35, 0.55, 0.42, 0.35] | Will both Amazon's cloud computing market share increase by more than 15% by 2029 and Microsoft's cloud computing market share decrease by more than 10% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by Canalys. Resolution date: December 31, 2030. Resolution source: Canalys. | 0.106 | [0.12, 0.12, 0.05, 0.12, 0.12] |
iter12_h4_q0 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing | Quantum Computing and AI | null | 0.39584 | null | Will IBM develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if IBM develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2032, as reported by IBM's official blog or other credible sources like The Verge. Resolution criteria: Official reports from IBM, The Verge, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution date: December 31,... | 0.838 | [0.85, 0.85, 0.85, 0.82, 0.82] | Given IBM's development of a quantum computer, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, given IBM's development of a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or other cred... | 0.38 | [0.32, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.32] | Will IBM develop a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2032 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 25% in the next 2 years? | This question resolves as YES if both IBM develops a quantum computer capable of performing complex calculations by 2032 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 25% in the next 2 years, as reported by IBM's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences, or other cr... | 0.578 | [0.6, 0.65, 0.72, 0.6, 0.32] |
iter12_h4_q1 | llama_70b | 12 | The model underestimates the impact of quantum computing on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the field of natural language processing | Quantum Computing and AI | null | 0.399873 | null | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2029, as reported by Google's official blog or other credible sources like MIT Technology Review. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, MIT Technology Review, or other reputable tech news outlets. Resolution date: Dece... | 0.74 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.82, 0.72, 0.72] | Given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, will the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, given Google's breakthrough in quantum computing, as reported by research papers published in top-tier AI conferences like NeurIPS or ICLR, or other credible sources like Harvard Business Revie... | 0.42 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Google announce a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2029 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerate by 30% in the next 3 years? | This question resolves as YES if both Google announces a breakthrough in quantum computing by 2029 and the development of AGI in natural language processing accelerates by 30% in the next 3 years, as reported by Google's official blog, research papers published in top-tier AI conferences, or other credible sources like... | 0.568 | [0.62, 0.42, 0.56, 0.62, 0.62] |
iter12_h4_q1 | llama_8b | 12 | The model assumes a strong correlation between the adoption of renewable energy sources and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, without considering the impact of energy storage and grid infrastructure | Energy and Environment | null | 0.368048 | null | Will the use of renewable energy sources increase by more than 20% globally by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the use of renewable energy sources increases by more than 20% globally by December 31, 2030, as reported by the International Energy Agency or reputable energy outlets like BloombergNEF. Resolution source: International Energy Agency or BloombergNEF. | 0.77 | [0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.65, 0.85] | Given that the use of renewable energy sources increases by more than 20% globally, will the global greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 10% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if the global greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 10% by December 31, 2031, as reported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or reputable environmental outlets like The Guardian. Resolution source: UNFCCC or The Guardian. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will both the use of renewable energy sources increase by more than 20% globally by 2030 and the global greenhouse gas emissions decrease by more than 10% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by the International Energy Agency and the UNFCCC. Resolution date: December 31, 2031. Resolution source: International Energy Agency and UNFCCC. | 0.266 | [0.23, 0.25, 0.35, 0.25, 0.25] |
iter13_h1_q0 | gpt-4o | 13 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion, specifically in the context of influencer marketing | Marketing and Fashion | null | 0.457214 | null | Will the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increase by more than 200% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increases by more than 200% in 2028, as reported by Instagram's official analytics tool or reputable social media sources like Hootsuite. | 0.39 | [0.35, 0.55, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Given an increase in Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion, will the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 50% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 50% by December 31, 2030, as reported by reputable sources like the Sustainable Fashion Coalition or the Global Fashion Agenda. | 0.72 | [0.7, 0.75, 0.7, 0.7, 0.75] | Will the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increase by more than 200% in 2028 and the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 50% by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of Instagram posts using the hashtag #sustainablefashion increases by more than 200% in 2028, and the sales of sustainable fashion products increase by more than 50% by December 31, 2030, as reported by Instagram's official analytics tool, reputable s... | 0.57 | [0.65, 0.45, 0.55, 0.55, 0.65] |
iter13_h1_q1 | gpt-4o | 13 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion, specifically in the context of influencer marketing | Marketing and Fashion | null | 0.394288 | null | Will Patagonia's influencer marketing budget increase by more than 300% in 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's influencer marketing budget increases by more than 300% in 2029, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable sources like AdAge. | 0.18 | [0.15, 0.2, 0.15, 0.2, 0.2] | Given an increase in Patagonia's influencer marketing budget, will the company's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 60% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 60% by December 31, 2032, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoor Industry Association. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will Patagonia's influencer marketing budget increase by more than 300% in 2029 and the company's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 60% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Patagonia's influencer marketing budget increases by more than 300% in 2029, and the company's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 60% by December 31, 2032, as reported by Patagonia's official website, reputable sources like AdAge, a... | 0.33 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.25, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter13_h2_q0 | gpt-4o | 13 | The model underestimates the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets, specifically in the context of renewable energy investments | Energy and Geopolitics | null | 0.558942 | null | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 120% in 2029? | This question resolves as YES if China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 120% in 2029, as reported by China's official website or reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistics of China or the International Energy Agency (IEA). | 0.31 | [0.3, 0.25, 0.35, 0.3, 0.35] | Given an increase in China's investment in renewable energy, will the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 30% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 30% by December 31, 2035, as reported by reputable sources like the IEA or the Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 0.35 | [0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Will China increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 120% in 2029 and the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 30% by 2035? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: China increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 120% in 2029, and the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 30% by December 31, 2035, as reported by China's official website, reputable sources like the National Bureau of Statistic... | 0.41 | [0.45, 0.35, 0.35, 0.45, 0.45] |
iter13_h3_q0 | gpt-4o | 13 | The model overestimates the impact of technological advancements on the development of autonomous vehicles, specifically in the context of sensor technology | Technology and Transportation | null | 0.361756 | null | Will Tesla develop a new sensor technology for autonomous vehicles that increases their range by more than 50% by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla develops a new sensor technology for autonomous vehicles that increases their range by more than 50% by December 31, 2028, as reported by Tesla's official website or reputable sources like Electrek. | 0.18 | [0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that Tesla develops a new sensor technology for autonomous vehicles, will the company's autonomous vehicle sales increase by more than 70% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if Tesla's autonomous vehicle sales increase by more than 70% by December 31, 2031, as reported by Tesla's official website or reputable sources like the Automotive News Data Center. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will Tesla develop a new sensor technology for autonomous vehicles that increases their range by more than 50% by 2028 and the company's autonomous vehicle sales increase by more than 70% by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Tesla develops a new sensor technology for autonomous vehicles that increases their range by more than 50% by December 31, 2028, and the company's autonomous vehicle sales increase by more than 70% by December 31, 2031, as reported by Tesla's official website, r... | 0.31 | [0.35, 0.15, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter1_h0_q0 | deepseek-v3 | 1 | The model overestimates joint probabilities in scenarios involving multiple events or conditions, as observed in the Speed Chess Championship example | null | null | 0.343753 | null | Will the USA win more than 20 gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | The USA has historically been a dominant force in the Olympics, but the 2024 Paris Olympics will feature strong competition from other countries. Resolution date: August 12, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official medal count from the IOC. Resolution source: Olympic.org | 0.95 | [0.95, 0.95, 0.95, 0.95, 0.95] | Given that the USA wins more than 20 gold medals, will China win more than 15 gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | China has been increasing its investment in sports programs and has a strong track record in the Olympics. Resolution date: August 12, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official medal count from the IOC. Resolution source: Olympic.org | 0.89 | [0.95, 0.85, 0.95, 0.85, 0.85] | Will both the USA win more than 20 gold medals and China win more than 15 gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Both countries have a strong track record in the Olympics, but the competition will be fierce. Resolution date: August 12, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official medal count from the IOC. Resolution source: Olympic.org | 0.64 | [0.85, 0.85, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q0 | deepseek-v3 | 1 | The model overestimates the probability of breakthroughs in quantum computing and their application in real-world scenarios, particularly in the field of cryptography and cybersecurity | AI and Computing | Overestimation of breakthroughs | 0.482067 | null | Will Google develop a quantum computer capable of simulating complex chemical reactions by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if Google develops a quantum computer capable of simulating complex chemical reactions by 2029, as reported by Google on their official website (google.com) by December 31, 2029. Resolution source: Google's official press releases. | 0.48 | [0.45, 0.5, 0.45, 0.5, 0.5] | Given that Google develops a quantum computer, will the US National Institute of Standards and Technology invest more than $1.5 billion in quantum computing research for cybersecurity applications by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if the US National Institute of Standards and Technology invests more than $1.5 billion in quantum computing research for cybersecurity applications by 2031, given that Google develops a quantum computer, as reported by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology on their officia... | 0.53 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.65, 0.5] | Will both Google develop a quantum computer and the US National Institute of Standards and Technology invest more than $1.5 billion in quantum computing research by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if both Google develops a quantum computer and the US National Institute of Standards and Technology invests more than $1.5 billion in quantum computing research by 2031, as reported by Google and the US National Institute of Standards and Technology on their official websites by December ... | 0.55 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.75, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q0 | gpt-4o | 1 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion | Sustainable Fashion | Overestimation of social media impact | 0.407705 | null | Will Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 25% in 2026? | This question resolves as YES if Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 25% in 2026, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoor Industry Association. | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Given an increase in Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing, will the company's overall revenue exceed $900 million by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if, given that Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase, the company's overall revenue exceeds $900 million by December 31, 2028, as reported by Patagonia's official website or reputable financial sources like Forbes. | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Will Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 25% in 2026 and the company's overall revenue exceed $900 million by 2028? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Patagonia's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 25% in 2026, and the company's overall revenue exceeds $900 million by December 31, 2028, as reported by Patagonia's official website, reputable outdoor industry sources like the Outdoo... | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q0 | gpt-4o-mini | 1 | The model overestimates conditional probabilities when the conditioned event is highly dependent on the conditioning event | Politics | Overestimation of conditional probability | 0.542525 | null | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024? | This question resolves as YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024, according to CNN (cnn.com) on August 1, 2024. | 0.75 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75] | Given that Joe Biden is the Democratic Presidential nominee, will the 2024 Democratic National Convention be held virtually due to COVID-19? | This question resolves as YES if, given that Joe Biden is the Democratic Presidential nominee, the 2024 Democratic National Convention is held virtually due to COVID-19, according to the Democratic National Committee (dnc.org) on August 1, 2024. | 0.16 | [0.15, 0.15, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15] | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee and the 2024 Democratic National Convention be held virtually due to COVID-19? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Joe Biden is the Democratic Presidential nominee and the 2024 Democratic National Convention is held virtually due to COVID-19, according to CNN (cnn.com) and the Democratic National Committee (dnc.org) on August 1, 2024. | 0.43 | [0.3, 0.3, 0.6, 0.3, 0.65] |
iter1_h0_q0 | gpt-4o-mini | 1 | The model overestimates conditional probabilities when the conditioned event is highly dependent on the conditioning event, as observed in the example of Wesley So beating Hans Niemann in the Speed Chess Championship | null | null | 0.570079 | The model's reasoning provided in the examples shows inconsistencies in estimating probabilities for conditional and joint events. A specific flaw observed is the model's tendency to overestimate the probability of events when they are conditioned on another event, as seen in the example of Wesley So beating Hans Niema... | USA to win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics | Will the USA win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics, according to the official Olympic website (olympics.com) by August 12, 2024? | 0.75 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75] | France to win at least 30 gold medals given USA wins the most | Given that the USA wins the most gold medals, will France win at least 30 gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics, according to the official Olympic website (olympics.com) by August 12, 2024? | 0.21 | [0.2, 0.15, 0.25, 0.2, 0.25] | Both USA and France to meet their respective gold medal targets | Will both the USA win the most gold medals and France win at least 30 gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics, according to the official Olympic website (olympics.com) by August 12, 2024? | 0.496 | [0.34, 0.65, 0.34, 0.65, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q0 | llama_70b | 1 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Tech Industry | Environmental underestimation | 0.73931 | null | Will Apple reduce its carbon footprint by 25% by 2028 through the use of renewable energy sources? | This question resolves as YES if Apple reduces its carbon footprint by 25% by 2028 through the use of renewable energy sources, as reported by Apple's official sustainability reports or other credible sources like Greenpeace. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Apple, Greenpeace, or other reputable environmental... | 0.74 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.82, 0.72] | Given the reduction in carbon footprint, will Apple's revenue increase by 12% YoY in 2029 due to improved brand image? | This question resolves as YES if, given the reduction in carbon footprint, Apple's revenue increases by 12% in 2029 due to improved brand image, as reported by Apple's official earnings reports or other credible sources like Bloomberg. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Apple, Bloomberg, or other reputable fina... | 0.242 | [0.25, 0.23, 0.23, 0.25, 0.25] | Will Apple reduce its carbon footprint by 25% by 2028 and its revenue increase by 12% YoY in 2029? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Apple reduces its carbon footprint by 25% by 2028 through the use of renewable energy sources, and Apple's revenue increases by 12% in 2029 due to improved brand image, as reported by Apple's official sustainability reports, Apple's official earnings reports, or... | 0.616 | [0.62, 0.58, 0.58, 0.68, 0.62] |
iter1_h0_q0 | llama_8b | 1 | The model assumes a strong correlation between the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the implementation of quantum computing, without considering the impact of regulatory frameworks and ethical concerns | AI and Computing | Overestimation of AGI impact | 0.300383 | null | Will NVIDIA develop a quantum computing chip for AGI applications by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if NVIDIA officially announces the development of a quantum computing chip for AGI applications by December 31, 2030, as reported by NVIDIA's official website or reputable tech outlets like Wired. | 0.33 | [0.35, 0.15, 0.65, 0.35, 0.15] | Given that NVIDIA develops a quantum computing chip for AGI applications, will Google integrate the chip into its AGI research by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if Google officially announces the integration of NVIDIA's quantum computing chip into its AGI research by December 31, 2032, as reported by Google's official blog or reputable tech outlets like The Next Web. | 0.438 | [0.42, 0.35, 0.65, 0.35, 0.42] | Will both NVIDIA develop a quantum computing chip for AGI applications by 2030 and Google integrate the chip into its AGI research by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met, as reported by NVIDIA's official website and Google's official blog. Resolution date: December 31, 2032. Resolution source: NVIDIA's official website and Google's official blog. | 0.304 | [0.25, 0.45, 0.12, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter1_h0_q0 | o1_mini | 1 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of 5G networks and the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) devices | AI and Computing | Overestimation of correlation | 0.770684 | null | Will the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increase by more than 40% in 2026 compared to 2025? | This question resolves as YES if the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increases by more than 40% in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by reputable sources such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) or industry reports. | 0.2 | [0.1, 0.15, 0.25, 0.15, 0.35] | Given an increase in 5G subscriptions, will the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increase by more than 25% in 2027? | This question resolves as YES if, given an increase in 5G subscriptions, the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increases by more than 25% in 2027, as reported by credible sources such as market research firms or industry reports. | 0.82 | [0.85, 0.85, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8] | Will the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increase by more than 40% in 2026 compared to 2025 and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increase by more than 25% in 2027? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of 5G subscriptions worldwide increases by more than 40% in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by reputable sources, and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increases by more than 25% in 2027, as reported by credible sources. | 0.62 | [0.85, 0.75, 0.4, 0.75, 0.35] |
iter1_h0_q0 | sonnet | 1 | The model overestimates the correlation between genetic engineering and the development of new medical treatments | Genetic Engineering | Overestimation of correlation | 0.486398 | null | Will CRISPR Therapeutics invest more than $1.2 billion in genetic engineering research and development for rare diseases in 2027? | This question resolves as YES if CRISPR Therapeutics' official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the company has invested more than $1.2 billion in genetic engineering research and development for rare diseases in 2027. | 0.33 | [0.35, 0.25, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] | Given that CRISPR Therapeutics invests more than $1.2 billion in genetic engineering research and development, will the company develop a new treatment for cystic fibrosis using gene editing technology by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if CRISPR Therapeutics' official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the company has developed a new treatment for cystic fibrosis using gene editing technology by 2030. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will CRISPR Therapeutics invest more than $1.2 billion in genetic engineering research and development and develop a new treatment for cystic fibrosis using gene editing technology by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if CRISPR Therapeutics' official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the company has invested more than $1.2 billion in genetic engineering research and development for rare diseases in 2027, and the company develops a new treatment for cystic fibrosis using gene editin... | 0.51 | [0.65, 0.45, 0.65, 0.45, 0.35] |
iter1_h0_q1 | deepseek-v3 | 1 | The model overestimates joint probabilities in scenarios involving multiple events or conditions, as observed in the Speed Chess Championship example | null | null | 0.609836 | null | Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates by more than 1% in 2024? | The ECB has been monitoring inflation and economic growth in the EU, and a rate hike is possible. Resolution date: December 31, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official ECB press release. Resolution source: ECB.eu | 0.27 | [0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.35] | Given that the ECB raises interest rates by more than 1%, will the euro appreciate against the US dollar by more than 5% in 2024? | The ECB's monetary policy decisions can impact currency markets, but the relationship is complex. Resolution date: December 31, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official exchange rate data from the ECB. Resolution source: ECB.eu | 0.25 | [0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25] | Will both the ECB raise interest rates by more than 1% and the euro appreciate against the US dollar by more than 5% in 2024? | The ECB's decisions can have far-reaching effects on the economy and financial markets. Resolution date: December 31, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official ECB press release and exchange rate data. Resolution source: ECB.eu | 0.38 | [0.15, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q1 | deepseek-v3 | 1 | The model overestimates the probability of breakthroughs in quantum computing and their application in real-world scenarios, particularly in the field of cryptography and cybersecurity | AI and Computing | Overestimation of breakthroughs | 0.666151 | null | Will Microsoft develop a quantum computer capable of simulating complex molecular interactions by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if Microsoft develops a quantum computer capable of simulating complex molecular interactions by 2030, as reported by Microsoft on their official website (microsoft.com) by December 31, 2030. Resolution source: Microsoft's official press releases. | 0.47 | [0.35, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Given that Microsoft develops a quantum computer, will the US Department of Defense invest more than $2 billion in quantum computing research for cybersecurity applications by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if the US Department of Defense invests more than $2 billion in quantum computing research for cybersecurity applications by 2032, given that Microsoft develops a quantum computer, as reported by the US Department of Defense on their official website (defense.gov) by December 31, 2032. Res... | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Will both Microsoft develop a quantum computer and the US Department of Defense invest more than $2 billion in quantum computing research by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both Microsoft develops a quantum computer and the US Department of Defense invests more than $2 billion in quantum computing research by 2032, as reported by Microsoft and the US Department of Defense on their official websites by December 31, 2032. Resolution source: Microsoft's offic... | 0.63 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7, 0.75] |
iter1_h0_q1 | gpt-4o | 1 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion | Sustainable Fashion | Overestimation of social media impact | 0.407705 | null | Will Reformation's sales of sustainable clothing increase by more than 30% in 2027? | This question resolves as YES if Reformation's sales of sustainable clothing increase by more than 30% in 2027, as reported by Reformation's official website or reputable fashion industry sources like Fashion United. | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Given an increase in Reformation's sales of sustainable clothing, will the company expand its store count to more than 50 locations by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if, given that Reformation's sales of sustainable clothing increase, the company expands its store count to more than 50 locations by December 31, 2030, as reported by Reformation's official website or reputable retail industry sources like the National Retail Federation. | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Will Reformation's sales of sustainable clothing increase by more than 30% in 2027 and the company expand its store count to more than 50 locations by 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Reformation's sales of sustainable clothing increase by more than 30% in 2027, and the company expands its store count to more than 50 locations by December 31, 2030, as reported by Reformation's official website, reputable fashion industry sources like Fashion ... | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q1 | llama_70b | 1 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Tech Industry | Environmental underestimation | 0.635731 | null | Will Google reduce its water usage by 30% by 2029 through the use of efficient cooling systems? | This question resolves as YES if Google reduces its water usage by 30% by 2029 through the use of efficient cooling systems, as reported by Google's official sustainability reports or other credible sources like the Environmental Protection Agency. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, EPA, or other reputa... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the reduction in water usage, will Google's data center energy efficiency increase by 15% in 2030? | This question resolves as YES if, given the reduction in water usage, Google's data center energy efficiency increases by 15% in 2030, as reported by Google's official blog or other credible sources like the U.S. Department of Energy. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Google, U.S. Department of Energy, or othe... | 0.46 | [0.62, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.42] | Will Google reduce its water usage by 30% by 2029 and its data center energy efficiency increase by 15% in 2030? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Google reduces its water usage by 30% by 2029 through the use of efficient cooling systems, and Google's data center energy efficiency increases by 15% in 2030, as reported by Google's official sustainability reports, Google's official blog, or other credible so... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] |
iter1_h0_q1 | llama_8b | 1 | The model inaccurately estimates conditional probabilities for uncertain or multifaceted base events, as seen in questions about the Olympic Medal Table and national election outcomes | null | null | 0.43283 | null | Will the prime minister of Japan visit the United States before June 1, 2024? | The question resolves based on official statements from the Japanese government or the White House about a planned visit, with a resolution date of June 1, 2024. Resolution source: Official government websites or press releases. | 0.47 | [0.65, 0.35, 0.45, 0.55, 0.35] | Given that the prime minister of Japan visits the United States, will the two countries announce a new trade agreement within three months? | The question resolves based on official announcements from the Japanese and US governments about a new trade agreement, with a resolution date determined by the visit and the announcement. Resolution source: Official government websites, press releases, or reputable news outlets like Reuters or the Associated Press. | 0.35 | [0.45, 0.35, 0.45, 0.25, 0.25] | Will both the prime minister of Japan visit the United States before June 1, 2024, and the two countries announce a new trade agreement within three months? | The question resolves based on the combination of the conditions in P and Q_given_P, with resolution dates and sources as specified for each condition. | 0.4108 | [0.7, 0.15, 0.5, 0.2, 0.504] |
iter1_h0_q1 | o1_mini | 1 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of 5G networks and the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) devices | AI and Computing | Overestimation of correlation | 0.418335 | null | Will the number of 5G base stations worldwide increase by more than 30% in 2027 compared to 2026? | This question resolves as YES if the number of 5G base stations worldwide increases by more than 30% in 2027 compared to 2026, as reported by reputable sources such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) or industry reports. | 0.2 | [0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.25, 0.15] | Given an increase in 5G base stations, will the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increase by more than 20% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if, given an increase in 5G base stations, the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increases by more than 20% in 2028, as reported by credible sources such as market research firms or industry reports. | 0.84 | [0.85, 0.8, 0.85, 0.85, 0.85] | Will the number of 5G base stations worldwide increase by more than 30% in 2027 compared to 2026 and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increase by more than 20% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of 5G base stations worldwide increases by more than 30% in 2027 compared to 2026, as reported by reputable sources, and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks increases by more than 20% in 2028, as reported by credible sources. | 0.42 | [0.25, 0.75, 0.35, 0.25, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q1 | o1_mini | 1 | The model overestimates the probability of joint events in political contexts, as observed in examples like the Eurovision qualification and Nordic country win scenarios | null | null | 0.313278 | null | Will the incumbent president win the 2024 presidential election? | Resolution date: November 5, 2024; Resolution criteria: Official election results; Resolution source: Federal Election Commission | 0.57 | [0.65, 0.55, 0.55, 0.55, 0.55] | Given the incumbent president wins, will their party maintain control of the Senate? | Resolution date: November 5, 2024; Resolution criteria: Official election results; Resolution source: Federal Election Commission | 0.61 | [0.6, 0.65, 0.65, 0.6, 0.55] | Will the incumbent president win the 2024 presidential election and their party maintain control of the Senate? | Resolution date: November 5, 2024; Resolution criteria: Official election results; Resolution source: Federal Election Commission | 0.55 | [0.55, 0.55, 0.55, 0.65, 0.45] |
iter1_h0_q1 | sonnet | 1 | The model overestimates the correlation between genetic engineering and the development of new medical treatments | Genetic Engineering | Overestimation of correlation | 0.438533 | null | Will Editas Medicine invest more than $800 million in genetic engineering research and development for inherited diseases in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if Editas Medicine's official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the company has invested more than $800 million in genetic engineering research and development for inherited diseases in 2028. | 0.15 | [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15] | Given that Editas Medicine invests more than $800 million in genetic engineering research and development, will the company develop a new treatment for muscular dystrophy using gene editing technology by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if Editas Medicine's official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the company has developed a new treatment for muscular dystrophy using gene editing technology by 2031. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will Editas Medicine invest more than $800 million in genetic engineering research and development and develop a new treatment for muscular dystrophy using gene editing technology by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if Editas Medicine's official website or a reputable biotech news source reports that the company has invested more than $800 million in genetic engineering research and development for inherited diseases in 2028, and the company develops a new treatment for muscular dystrophy using gene e... | 0.33 | [0.35, 0.25, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35] |
iter1_h0_q2 | deepseek-v3 | 1 | The model overestimates the probability of breakthroughs in quantum computing and their application in real-world scenarios, particularly in the field of cryptography and cybersecurity | AI and Computing | Overestimation of breakthroughs | 0.443156 | null | Will Amazon develop a quantum computer capable of simulating complex materials science by 2031? | This question resolves as YES if Amazon develops a quantum computer capable of simulating complex materials science by 2031, as reported by Amazon on their official website (amazon.com) by December 31, 2031. Resolution source: Amazon's official press releases. | 0.37 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.35, 0.25] | Given that Amazon develops a quantum computer, will the US National Science Foundation invest more than $1.2 billion in quantum computing research for cryptography applications by 2033? | This question resolves as YES if the US National Science Foundation invests more than $1.2 billion in quantum computing research for cryptography applications by 2033, given that Amazon develops a quantum computer, as reported by the US National Science Foundation on their official website (nsf.gov) by December 31, 203... | 0.62 | [0.65, 0.5, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will both Amazon develop a quantum computer and the US National Science Foundation invest more than $1.2 billion in quantum computing research by 2033? | This question resolves as YES if both Amazon develops a quantum computer and the US National Science Foundation invests more than $1.2 billion in quantum computing research by 2033, as reported by Amazon and the US National Science Foundation on their official websites by December 31, 2033. Resolution source: Amazon's ... | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.45, 0.45, 0.45, 0.65] |
iter1_h0_q2 | gpt-4o | 1 | The model overestimates the impact of social media trends on consumer behavior in the context of sustainable fashion | Sustainable Fashion | Overestimation of social media impact | 0.407705 | null | Will Everlane's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 20% in 2025? | This question resolves as YES if Everlane's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 20% in 2025, as reported by Everlane's official website or reputable fashion industry sources like Vogue Business. | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Given an increase in Everlane's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing, will the company reduce its carbon footprint by more than 15% by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if, given that Everlane's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase, the company reduces its carbon footprint by more than 15% by December 31, 2029, as reported by Everlane's official website or reputable sustainability sources like the Carbon Disclosure Project. | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Will Everlane's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 20% in 2025 and the company reduce its carbon footprint by more than 15% by 2029? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Everlane's sales of environmentally-friendly clothing increase by more than 20% in 2025, and the company reduces its carbon footprint by more than 15% by December 31, 2029, as reported by Everlane's official website, reputable fashion industry sources like Vogue... | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] |
iter1_h0_q2 | gpt-4o | 1 | The model underestimates the complexity of conditional probabilities in political events | null | null | 0.334166 | The provided <MODEL EXAMPLES> demonstrate various instances where the model struggles with conditional probability judgments, particularly in maintaining probabilistic consistency. Two specific areas of weakness can be identified and exploited for question generation:
1. **Inconsistent Probability Estimates for Condi... | Will there be a significant increase in voter turnout among young adults in the 2024 presidential election? | This question resolves based on data from the US Census Bureau or similar official sources regarding voter turnout demographics by December 31, 2024. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Given a significant increase in young adult voter turnout, will the Democratic Party's share of the youth vote increase by more than 5%? | This question resolves based on exit poll data or post-election surveys conducted by reputable organizations like the Pew Research Center by January 15, 2025. | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] | Will there be a significant increase in young adult voter turnout and the Democratic Party's share of the youth vote increase by more than 5% in 2024? | This question resolves based on data from the US Census Bureau and exit poll data or post-election surveys by reputable organizations like the Pew Research Center by January 15, 2025. | 0.64 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.6, 0.65] |
iter1_h0_q2 | gpt-4o-mini | 1 | The model overestimates conditional probabilities when the conditioned event is highly dependent on the conditioning event, as observed in the example of Wesley So beating Hans Niemann in the Speed Chess Championship | null | null | 0.614624 | The model's reasoning provided in the examples shows inconsistencies in estimating probabilities for conditional and joint events. A specific flaw observed is the model's tendency to overestimate the probability of events when they are conditioned on another event, as seen in the example of Wesley So beating Hans Niema... | Iran to carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024, according to the BBC News (bbc.com) on May 2, 2024? | 0.31 | [0.3, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35, 0.35] | US to impose new sanctions on Iran given a deadly attack | Given that Iran carries out a deadly attack within Israel, will the United States impose new sanctions on Iran before May 1, 2024, according to the US Department of the Treasury (treasury.gov) on May 2, 2024? | 0.75 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75] | Both Iran to attack and US to impose sanctions | Will both Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel and the United States impose new sanctions on Iran before May 1, 2024, according to the BBC News (bbc.com) and the US Department of the Treasury (treasury.gov) on May 2, 2024? | 0.61 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.45, 0.65] |
iter1_h0_q2 | llama_70b | 1 | The model assumes strong correlation between individual and national sports performance | null | null | 0.382401 | null | Noah Lyles breaks the 200m world record in 2025 | Noah Lyles, the current world champion in the 200m, will attempt to break the world record at the 2025 World Athletics Championships. The current world record is 19.19, set by Erriyon Knighton in 2022. Will Noah Lyles break the 200m world record in 2025? Resolution criteria: Official results from the 2025 World Athleti... | 0.258 | [0.35, 0.23, 0.23, 0.25, 0.23] | The United States wins at least 4 medals in men's sprint events at the 2025 World Championships | Given that Noah Lyles breaks the 200m world record, will the United States win at least 4 medals in men's sprint events (100m, 200m, 4x100m relay) at the 2025 World Athletics Championships? Resolution criteria: Official results from the 2025 World Athletics Championships, as reported by World Athletics. Resolution date... | 0.85 | [0.85, 0.85, 0.85, 0.85, 0.85] | Noah Lyles breaks the 200m world record and the United States wins at least 4 medals in men's sprint events | Will both Noah Lyles break the 200m world record and the United States win at least 4 medals in men's sprint events at the 2025 World Athletics Championships? Resolution criteria: Official results from the 2025 World Athletics Championships, as reported by World Athletics. Resolution date: August 15, 2025. | 0.46 | [0.42, 0.42, 0.42, 0.62, 0.42] |
iter1_h0_q2 | llama_70b | 1 | The model underestimates the impact of environmental factors on company-specific operations, particularly in the tech industry | Tech Industry | Environmental underestimation | 0.519783 | null | Will Amazon reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2027 through the use of renewable energy sources? | This question resolves as YES if Amazon reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2027 through the use of renewable energy sources, as reported by Amazon's official sustainability reports or other credible sources like the Carbon Disclosure Project. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Amazon, Carbon Disclos... | 0.72 | [0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72, 0.72] | Given the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, will Amazon's revenue increase by 10% YoY in 2028 due to improved brand image? | This question resolves as YES if, given the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, Amazon's revenue increases by 10% in 2028 due to improved brand image, as reported by Amazon's official earnings reports or other credible sources like CNBC. Resolution criteria: Official reports from Amazon, CNBC, or other reputable fin... | 0.164 | [0.23, 0.12, 0.12, 0.23, 0.12] | Will Amazon reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2027 and its revenue increase by 10% YoY in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: Amazon reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2027 through the use of renewable energy sources, and Amazon's revenue increases by 10% in 2028 due to improved brand image, as reported by Amazon's official sustainability reports, Amazon's official earnings... | 0.412 | [0.42, 0.62, 0.42, 0.3, 0.3] |
iter1_h0_q2 | o1_mini | 1 | The model overestimates the correlation between the development of 5G networks and the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) devices | AI and Computing | Overestimation of correlation | 0.576152 | null | Will the number of 5G subscriptions in the United States increase by more than 50% in 2028 compared to 2027? | This question resolves as YES if the number of 5G subscriptions in the United States increases by more than 50% in 2028 compared to 2027, as reported by reputable sources such as the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) or industry reports. | 0.09 | [0.05, 0.1, 0.1, 0.15, 0.05] | Given an increase in 5G subscriptions in the United States, will the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks in the United States increase by more than 30% in 2029? | This question resolves as YES if, given an increase in 5G subscriptions in the United States, the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks in the United States increases by more than 30% in 2029, as reported by credible sources such as market research firms or industry reports. | 0.84 | [0.8, 0.85, 0.85, 0.85, 0.85] | Will the number of 5G subscriptions in the United States increase by more than 50% in 2028 compared to 2027 and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks in the United States increase by more than 30% in 2029? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the number of 5G subscriptions in the United States increases by more than 50% in 2028 compared to 2027, as reported by reputable sources, and the number of IoT devices connected to 5G networks in the United States increases by more than 30% in 2029, as reported... | 0.39 | [0.75, 0.1, 0.1, 0.15, 0.85] |
iter1_h0_q3 | gpt-4o-mini | 1 | The model overestimates conditional probabilities when the conditioned event is highly dependent on the conditioning event, as observed in the example of Wesley So beating Hans Niemann in the Speed Chess Championship | null | null | 0.738609 | The model's reasoning provided in the examples shows inconsistencies in estimating probabilities for conditional and joint events. A specific flaw observed is the model's tendency to overestimate the probability of events when they are conditioned on another event, as seen in the example of Wesley So beating Hans Niema... | Kamala Harris to be the Democratic VP nominee | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2024, according to CNN (cnn.com) on August 1, 2024? | 0.77 | [0.75, 0.75, 0.85, 0.75, 0.75] | 2024 Democratic National Convention to be held virtually given Harris as VP nominee | Given that Kamala Harris is the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, will the 2024 Democratic National Convention be held virtually due to COVID-19, according to the Democratic National Committee (dnc.org) on August 1, 2024? | 0.27 | [0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.35] | Both Harris as VP nominee and virtual convention | Will both Kamala Harris be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee and the 2024 Democratic National Convention be held virtually due to COVID-19, according to CNN (cnn.com) and the Democratic National Committee (dnc.org) on August 1, 2024? | 0.65 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65] |
iter1_h0_q4 | o1_mini | 1 | The model overestimates the probability of joint events in political contexts, as observed in examples like the Eurovision qualification and Nordic country win scenarios | null | null | 0.374039 | null | Will the US and China resolve their trade disputes by 2025? | Resolution date: December 31, 2025; Resolution criteria: Official announcements from the US and China; Resolution source: Reuters | 0.37 | [0.25, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3] | Given a resolution to the trade disputes, will the US experience a reduction in its trade deficit with China? | Resolution date: December 31, 2025; Resolution criteria: Trade deficit data; Resolution source: US Census Bureau | 0.54 | [0.65, 0.65, 0.45, 0.35, 0.6] | Will the US and China resolve their trade disputes by 2025 and the US experience a reduction in its trade deficit with China? | Resolution date: December 31, 2025; Resolution criteria: Official announcements from the US and China, trade deficit data; Resolution source: Reuters, US Census Bureau | 0.42 | [0.55, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35, 0.5] |
iter1_h1_q0 | deepseek-v3 | 1 | The model provides inconsistent estimates for conditional probabilities, depending on the context and the order of events, as observed in the OpenAI and Microsoft example | null | null | 0.333156 | null | Will the US unemployment rate fall below 4% in 2024? | The US economy has been growing, but the labor market is complex. Resolution date: December 31, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official unemployment rate data from the BLS. Resolution source: BLS.gov | 0.56 | [0.5, 0.65, 0.65, 0.65, 0.35] | Given that the US unemployment rate falls below 4%, will the EU unemployment rate fall below 7% in 2024? | The EU labor market is influenced by various factors, including economic growth and policy decisions. Resolution date: December 31, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official unemployment rate data from Eurostat. Resolution source: Eurostat.eu | 0.44 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.35, 0.35] | Will both the US unemployment rate fall below 4% and the EU unemployment rate fall below 7% in 2024? | The labor markets in the US and EU are interconnected, but the relationship is complex. Resolution date: December 31, 2024. Resolution criteria: Official unemployment rate data from the BLS and Eurostat. Resolution source: BLS.gov and Eurostat.eu | 0.45 | [0.45, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3] |
iter1_h1_q0 | gpt-4o | 1 | The model underestimates the impact of geopolitics on global energy markets, specifically in the context of renewable energy investments | Global Energy Markets | Underestimation of geopolitics impact | 0.407705 | null | Will the United States increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028? | This question resolves as YES if the United States increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028, as reported by the U.S. Department of Energy or reputable sources like the International Energy Agency (IEA). | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Given an increase in the United States' investment in renewable energy, will the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 20% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if, given that the United States increases its investment in renewable energy, the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 20% by December 31, 2032, as reported by reputable sources like the IEA or the Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] | Will the United States increase its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028 and the global demand for fossil fuels decrease by more than 20% by 2032? | This question resolves as YES if both conditions are met: the United States increases its investment in renewable energy by more than 100% in 2028, and the global demand for fossil fuels decreases by more than 20% by December 31, 2032, as reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, reputable sources like the IEA, and re... | 0.5 | [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5] |
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