Hugging Face's logo

Datasets:
openthomas
/
weather-forecasts

Modalities:
Text
Tags:
weather
numerical-weather-prediction
prediction-markets
forecasting
graphcast
gencast
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
Dataset Preview
Duplicate
The full dataset viewer is not available (click to read why). Only showing a preview of the rows.
The dataset generation failed
Error code:   DatasetGenerationError
Exception:    CastError
Message:      Couldn't cast
issued_at: string
source: string
members: int64
ref_sigma: struct<0: double, 1: double, 2: double, 3: double, 4: double, 5: double, 6: double>
  child 0, 0: double
  child 1, 1: double
  child 2, 2: double
  child 3, 3: double
  child 4, 4: double
  child 5, 5: double
  child 6, 6: double
spread: struct<nyc: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, l (... 3326 chars omitted)
  child 0, nyc: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>, (... 235 chars omitted)
      child 0, 2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 1, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 2, 2026-09-13: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 3, 2026-09-14: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 4, 2026-09-15: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 5, 2026-09-16: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 6, 2026-09-17: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
  child 1, aus: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double
...
        child 1, low: double
      child 4, 2026-09-15: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 5, 2026-09-16: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 6, 2026-09-17: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
  child 9, sat: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>, (... 235 chars omitted)
      child 0, 2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 1, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 2, 2026-09-13: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 3, 2026-09-14: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 4, 2026-09-15: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 5, 2026-09-16: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
      child 6, 2026-09-17: struct<high: double, low: double>
          child 0, high: double
          child 1, low: double
station: string
target_date: timestamp[s]
runtime: timestamp[s]
value: double
kind: string
to
{'source': Value('string'), 'station': Value('string'), 'kind': Value('string'), 'target_date': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'runtime': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'value': Value('float64')}
because column names don't match
Traceback:    Traceback (most recent call last):
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1827, in _prepare_split_single
                  for key, table in generator:
                                    ^^^^^^^^^
                File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 613, in wrapped
                  for item in generator(*args, **kwargs):
                              ~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/packaged_modules/json/json.py", line 343, in _generate_tables
                  self._cast_table(pa_table, json_field_paths=json_field_paths),
                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/packaged_modules/json/json.py", line 132, in _cast_table
                  pa_table = table_cast(pa_table, self.info.features.arrow_schema)
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2378, in table_cast
                  return cast_table_to_schema(table, schema)
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2306, in cast_table_to_schema
                  raise CastError(
                  ...<3 lines>...
                  )
              datasets.table.CastError: Couldn't cast
              issued_at: string
              source: string
              members: int64
              ref_sigma: struct<0: double, 1: double, 2: double, 3: double, 4: double, 5: double, 6: double>
                child 0, 0: double
                child 1, 1: double
                child 2, 2: double
                child 3, 3: double
                child 4, 4: double
                child 5, 5: double
                child 6, 6: double
              spread: struct<nyc: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, l (... 3326 chars omitted)
                child 0, nyc: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>, (... 235 chars omitted)
                    child 0, 2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 1, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 2, 2026-09-13: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 3, 2026-09-14: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 4, 2026-09-15: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 5, 2026-09-16: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 6, 2026-09-17: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                child 1, aus: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double
              ...
                      child 1, low: double
                    child 4, 2026-09-15: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 5, 2026-09-16: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 6, 2026-09-17: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                child 9, sat: struct<2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>, (... 235 chars omitted)
                    child 0, 2026-09-11: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 1, 2026-09-12: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 2, 2026-09-13: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 3, 2026-09-14: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 4, 2026-09-15: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 5, 2026-09-16: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
                    child 6, 2026-09-17: struct<high: double, low: double>
                        child 0, high: double
                        child 1, low: double
              station: string
              target_date: timestamp[s]
              runtime: timestamp[s]
              value: double
              kind: string
              to
              {'source': Value('string'), 'station': Value('string'), 'kind': Value('string'), 'target_date': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'runtime': Value('timestamp[s]'), 'value': Value('float64')}
              because column names don't match
              
              The above exception was the direct cause of the following exception:
              
              Traceback (most recent call last):
                File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 1369, in compute_config_parquet_and_info_response
                  parquet_operations, partial, estimated_dataset_info = stream_convert_to_parquet(
                                                                        ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^
                      builder, max_dataset_size_bytes=max_dataset_size_bytes
                      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
                  )
                  ^
                File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 948, in stream_convert_to_parquet
                  builder._prepare_split(split_generator=splits_generators[split], file_format="parquet")
                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1694, in _prepare_split
                  for job_id, done, content in self._prepare_split_single(
                                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~^
                      gen_kwargs=gen_kwargs, job_id=job_id, **_prepare_split_args
                      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
                  ):
                  ^
                File "/usr/local/lib/python3.14/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1880, in _prepare_split_single
                  raise DatasetGenerationError("An error occurred while generating the dataset") from e
              datasets.exceptions.DatasetGenerationError: An error occurred while generating the dataset

Need help to make the dataset viewer work? Make sure to review how to configure the dataset viewer, and open a discussion for direct support.

source
string
station
string
kind
string
target_date
timestamp[s]
runtime
timestamp[s]
value
float64
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-11T00:00:00
2026-06-10T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-11T00:00:00
2026-06-10T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-12T00:00:00
2026-06-11T12:00:00
93
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-12T00:00:00
2026-06-11T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-13T00:00:00
2026-06-12T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-13T00:00:00
2026-06-12T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-14T00:00:00
2026-06-13T12:00:00
90
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-14T00:00:00
2026-06-13T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-15T00:00:00
2026-06-14T12:00:00
85
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-15T00:00:00
2026-06-14T12:00:00
70
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-16T00:00:00
2026-06-15T12:00:00
78
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-16T00:00:00
2026-06-15T12:00:00
68
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-17T00:00:00
2026-06-16T12:00:00
81
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-17T00:00:00
2026-06-16T12:00:00
68
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-18T00:00:00
2026-06-17T12:00:00
81
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-18T00:00:00
2026-06-17T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-19T00:00:00
2026-06-18T12:00:00
87
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-19T00:00:00
2026-06-18T12:00:00
69
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-20T00:00:00
2026-06-19T12:00:00
87
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-20T00:00:00
2026-06-19T12:00:00
71
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-21T00:00:00
2026-06-20T12:00:00
89
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-21T00:00:00
2026-06-20T12:00:00
68
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-22T00:00:00
2026-06-21T12:00:00
90
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-22T00:00:00
2026-06-21T12:00:00
73
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-23T00:00:00
2026-06-22T12:00:00
83
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-23T00:00:00
2026-06-22T12:00:00
70
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-24T00:00:00
2026-06-23T12:00:00
87
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-24T00:00:00
2026-06-23T12:00:00
67
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-25T00:00:00
2026-06-24T12:00:00
86
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-25T00:00:00
2026-06-24T12:00:00
69
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-26T00:00:00
2026-06-25T12:00:00
88
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-26T00:00:00
2026-06-25T12:00:00
72
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-27T00:00:00
2026-06-26T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-27T00:00:00
2026-06-26T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-28T00:00:00
2026-06-27T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-28T00:00:00
2026-06-27T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-29T00:00:00
2026-06-28T12:00:00
96
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-29T00:00:00
2026-06-28T12:00:00
77
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-06-30T00:00:00
2026-06-29T12:00:00
95
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-06-30T00:00:00
2026-06-29T12:00:00
78
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-01T00:00:00
2026-06-30T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-01T00:00:00
2026-06-30T12:00:00
77
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-02T00:00:00
2026-07-01T12:00:00
93
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-02T00:00:00
2026-07-01T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-03T00:00:00
2026-07-02T12:00:00
95
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-03T00:00:00
2026-07-02T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-04T00:00:00
2026-07-03T12:00:00
93
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-04T00:00:00
2026-07-03T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-05T00:00:00
2026-07-04T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-05T00:00:00
2026-07-04T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-06T00:00:00
2026-07-05T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-06T00:00:00
2026-07-05T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-07T00:00:00
2026-07-06T12:00:00
94
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-07T00:00:00
2026-07-06T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-08T00:00:00
2026-07-07T12:00:00
95
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-08T00:00:00
2026-07-07T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-09T00:00:00
2026-07-08T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-09T00:00:00
2026-07-08T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-10T00:00:00
2026-07-09T12:00:00
90
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-10T00:00:00
2026-07-09T12:00:00
73
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-11T00:00:00
2026-07-10T12:00:00
87
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-11T00:00:00
2026-07-10T12:00:00
73
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-12T00:00:00
2026-07-11T12:00:00
90
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-12T00:00:00
2026-07-11T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-13T00:00:00
2026-07-12T12:00:00
83
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-13T00:00:00
2026-07-12T12:00:00
72
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-14T00:00:00
2026-07-13T12:00:00
82
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-14T00:00:00
2026-07-13T12:00:00
72
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-15T00:00:00
2026-07-14T12:00:00
86
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-15T00:00:00
2026-07-14T12:00:00
72
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-16T00:00:00
2026-07-15T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-16T00:00:00
2026-07-15T12:00:00
73
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-17T00:00:00
2026-07-16T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-17T00:00:00
2026-07-16T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-18T00:00:00
2026-07-17T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-18T00:00:00
2026-07-17T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-19T00:00:00
2026-07-18T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-19T00:00:00
2026-07-18T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-20T00:00:00
2026-07-19T12:00:00
93
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-20T00:00:00
2026-07-19T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-21T00:00:00
2026-07-20T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-21T00:00:00
2026-07-20T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-22T00:00:00
2026-07-21T12:00:00
89
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-22T00:00:00
2026-07-21T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-23T00:00:00
2026-07-22T12:00:00
91
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-23T00:00:00
2026-07-22T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-24T00:00:00
2026-07-23T12:00:00
88
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-24T00:00:00
2026-07-23T12:00:00
75
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-25T00:00:00
2026-07-24T12:00:00
87
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-25T00:00:00
2026-07-24T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-26T00:00:00
2026-07-25T12:00:00
93
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-26T00:00:00
2026-07-25T12:00:00
74
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-27T00:00:00
2026-07-26T12:00:00
95
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-27T00:00:00
2026-07-26T12:00:00
77
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-28T00:00:00
2026-07-27T12:00:00
98
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-28T00:00:00
2026-07-27T12:00:00
76
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-29T00:00:00
2026-07-28T12:00:00
96
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-29T00:00:00
2026-07-28T12:00:00
78
gfsmos
atl
high
2026-07-30T00:00:00
2026-07-29T12:00:00
92
gfsmos
atl
low
2026-07-30T00:00:00
2026-07-29T12:00:00
74
End of preview.

OpenThomas weather forecasts

Every forecast the OpenThomas weather desk read or produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind the paper's replay experiments (docs/EXPERIMENTS.md in the harness repository).

file what lines / bytes
data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) 24,042
data/own-models.jsonl station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps 2,800
data/gencast-spread.json per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) 3,283
data/graphcast-tempseries.json coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run 112,397
data/baseline-nbm.jsonl as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline 1,980
data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) 1,980

Frozen replay datasets and experiment results

replay/ holds the frozen decision-time rows (one JSONL per window, digest in the filename) and the experiment results scored on them. A row carries the settlement station and day, the baseline probability at the snapshot, the Kalshi bid/ask at that snapshot, and the outcome — never anything the agent could not have known at decision time.

  • replay/e3-high9.txt
  • replay/e3-low1.txt
  • replay/e3-low2.txt
  • replay/e3e4.log
  • replay/e3e4.sh
  • replay/e4.log
  • replay/e4.sh
  • replay/e4.txt
  • replay/lineage.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.md
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.md
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.json
  • replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.md
  • replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json
  • replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md
  • replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json
  • replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
  • replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
  • replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
  • replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl
  • replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl

Conventions

  • Temperatures are °F; settlements are the integer daily extreme from the NWS Climatological Report (via ACIS), the number the markets settle on.
  • lead is days ahead: lead 1 for target day d is what the model published on d − 1.
  • NBM / GFS MOS baselines use the d − 1 12Z run, read from the IEM MOS archive as issued.
  • Own-model rows carry issued_at; the run that produced them is identified by that timestamp and the model name.

Paper trading. Nothing here is financial advice.
Downloads last month
157
Total file size:
48.1 MB