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Datasets:
nishkal2010
/
sba-loan-maturity-wall

Modalities:
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Formats:
csv
Size:
1K - 10K
Tags:
sba
small-business
acquisitions
finance
mergers-and-acquisitions
open-data
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dimension
stringclasses
5 values
key
stringclasses
104 values
maturity_year
int64
1.99k
2.06k
companies
int64
1
3.51k
region
midwest
1,996
1
region
midwest
1,997
1
region
midwest
1,998
1
region
midwest
2,001
2
region
midwest
2,002
2
region
midwest
2,003
2
region
midwest
2,004
4
region
midwest
2,005
10
region
midwest
2,006
7
region
midwest
2,007
6
region
midwest
2,008
2
region
midwest
2,009
5
region
midwest
2,010
7
region
midwest
2,011
50
region
midwest
2,012
65
region
midwest
2,013
65
region
midwest
2,014
113
region
midwest
2,015
170
region
midwest
2,016
253
region
midwest
2,017
266
region
midwest
2,018
241
region
midwest
2,019
330
region
midwest
2,020
404
region
midwest
2,021
492
region
midwest
2,022
512
region
midwest
2,023
522
region
midwest
2,024
601
region
midwest
2,025
637
region
midwest
2,026
699
region
midwest
2,027
723
region
midwest
2,028
687
region
midwest
2,029
642
region
midwest
2,030
713
region
midwest
2,031
770
region
midwest
2,032
770
region
midwest
2,033
620
region
midwest
2,034
712
region
midwest
2,035
720
region
midwest
2,036
471
region
midwest
2,037
401
region
midwest
2,038
351
region
midwest
2,039
297
region
midwest
2,040
330
region
midwest
2,041
326
region
midwest
2,042
316
region
midwest
2,043
240
region
midwest
2,044
253
region
midwest
2,045
310
region
midwest
2,046
475
region
midwest
2,047
340
region
midwest
2,048
261
region
midwest
2,049
275
region
midwest
2,050
308
region
midwest
2,051
99
region
midwest
2,052
5
state
IA
2,011
5
state
IA
2,012
2
state
IA
2,013
6
state
IA
2,014
2
state
IA
2,015
4
state
IA
2,016
12
state
IA
2,017
7
state
IA
2,018
13
state
IA
2,019
16
state
IA
2,020
25
state
IA
2,021
19
state
IA
2,022
21
state
IA
2,023
22
state
IA
2,024
23
state
IA
2,025
22
state
IA
2,026
22
state
IA
2,027
34
state
IA
2,028
35
state
IA
2,029
27
state
IA
2,030
40
state
IA
2,031
19
state
IA
2,032
30
state
IA
2,033
23
state
IA
2,034
15
state
IA
2,035
25
state
IA
2,036
8
state
IA
2,037
16
state
IA
2,038
13
state
IA
2,039
13
state
IA
2,040
11
state
IA
2,041
17
state
IA
2,042
7
state
IA
2,043
9
state
IA
2,044
6
state
IA
2,045
13
state
IA
2,046
11
state
IA
2,047
10
state
IA
2,048
4
state
IA
2,049
6
state
IA
2,050
13
state
IA
2,051
3
state
IA
2,052
1
state
IL
1,996
1
state
IL
1,997
1
state
IL
2,002
2
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

The SBA Loan Maturity Wall

A forward calendar of likely U.S. small-business ownership changes — computed from public SBA loan records.

Every SBA 7(a) and 504 loan has an approval date and a term. Add them together and you get a maturity year: the point at which the loan balloons and the owner faces a dated decision — refinance, or sell. Aggregated across the SBA's public FOIA disclosures, those maturity dates form a forward-looking signal of when small businesses are most likely to change hands — unlike almost every other acquisition dataset, which only records sales that already happened.

This dataset computes that maturity year for 66,307 loans where the term is disclosed, and counts how many come due each year — nationally and broken out by state, industry, and metro.

  • 2,639 small-business loans come due in 2026
  • 2,737 in 2027

This industry × metro × maturity-year cut is not published anywhere else. Aggregate SBA totals exist elsewhere; this breakdown does not.

Key findings

The wall keeps rising through the decade — and peaks in 2027. SBA loans maturing per year, nationally:

Year Loans coming due
2024 2,099
2025 2,387
2026 2,639
2027 2,737 (peak)
2028 2,516
2029 2,464
2030 2,589

California dominates. States with the most small-business SBA loans maturing in 2026:

Rank State 2026 maturities
1 California 487
2 Texas 185
3 Florida 152
4 Ohio 110
5 Illinois 108
6 Michigan 96
7 Minnesota 93
8 Colorado 86
9 Wisconsin 82
10 Georgia 76

Manufacturing, dental, and auto repair lead the transition wave. Industries by 2026 maturities: manufacturing 788, dental 575, auto repair 574, HVAC & plumbing 252, veterinary 204, landscaping 188, funeral homes 58.

Top metros for 2026 maturities: Los Angeles (141), Chicago (86), San Francisco (67), Minneapolis (64), Houston (62), Riverside–San Bernardino (56), Dallas–Fort Worth (56), Atlanta (55), New York (54), Phoenix (52).

Every one of these numbers is reproducible from the CSV below.

Files

File Scope Rows
sba-maturity-wall.csv National + every state, industry, and metro 4,218
sba-maturity-wall-west.csv West-region states —
sba-maturity-wall-midwest.csv Midwest-region states —
sba-maturity-wall-southeast.csv Southeast-region states —
sba-maturity-wall-northeast.csv Northeast-region states —
sba-maturity-wall-south_central.csv South-Central-region states —

Schema

Long format, four columns:

Column Description
dimension national, state, vertical (industry), or metro
key the specific slice — e.g. TX, hvac_plumbing, atlanta_sandy_springs_alpharetta_ga, or all for national
maturity_year the year the loan's disclosed term reaches maturity
companies number of loans/companies maturing that year within that slice

Example:

dimension,key,maturity_year,companies
national,all,2026,2639
national,all,2027,2737
state,TX,2026,...
vertical,funeral_homes,2026,...
metro,atlanta_sandy_springs_alpharetta_ga,2026,...

Method

maturity_year = SBA loan approval date + disclosed term, taken from the SBA's public 7(a) and 504 FOIA data files. Counts are grouped by maturity year within each dimension.

Limits (please carry these with any citation)

  • The loan term is absent from a meaningful share of SBA records, so these counts undercount the true number of maturities.
  • Maturity is derived from approval date plus disclosed term, so it ignores refinancing, early payoff, and extensions — a loan counted as maturing in 2026 may already have been repaid or renewed.
  • It is a signal of likely transition timing, not a record of actual sales.

License

Released under CC0 1.0 Universal — a public-domain dedication. No attribution required. Use it for anything.

Source & context

Built and maintained by Scouly — off-market small-business acquisition sourcing from public signals (SBA loans, PPP payroll, business longevity, market fragmentation).
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Number of rows:
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Total file size:
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