Patent ID: 8880962

Claim:
A computer-implemented method for predicting a failure of equipment from prior maintenance data of the equipment collected during a time duration, the method comprising: estimating a number of preceding failures of the equipment prior to the time duration; modeling, based on the prior maintenance data, an impact of an intervention on a failure of the equipment; and modeling, based on the modeled impact of the intervention and the estimated number of preceding failures, a replacement policy of the equipment and a probability of a subsequent failure of the equipment in a subsequent time period, the modeling the replacement policy including: calculating a first probability that when the equipment is replaced, the equipment has experienced exactly k number of interventions, wherein the k is a positive integer number; and calculating a second probability that the equipment needs to be replaced at a kth failure, wherein a computing system, which includes a processor and a memory device, performs the estimating, the modeling the impact, and the modeling the replacement policy and the probability of the subsequent failure.