Patent ID: 7464008

Claim:
A method in a computer system of selecting an event sequence to present to a user by predicting a likelihood of the user reaching an end event of each event sequence, the method comprising: (a) providing a current set of input attributes and contextual data collected during performance of previous event sequences; (b) determining a plurality of first expected values for going from a first event of a first event sequence to each of a plurality of subsequent events of the first event sequence based at least on the current set of input attributes and the collected contextual data, the plurality of subsequent events including a first end event, a probability of the user going from the first event to the first end event capable of being determined using the current set of input attributes and the collected contextual data; (c) determining a second expected value for going from a first event of a second event sequence to a second end event of such second event sequence based on at least two of the expected values predicted for the first event sequence and based at least on the current set of input attributes and the collected contextual data, whereby the second expected value cannot otherwise be determined using only the current set of input attributes and the collected contextual data; and (d) presenting either the first or second event sequence to the user by comparing the predicted first expected value with the predicted second expected value and determining which of the first and second end events the user is more likely to reach if presented with the respective first or second event sequence, wherein the second expected value for reaching the second end event of the second event sequence cannot be determined with a degree of certainty that is higher than a predetermined value, wherein the first expected value for reaching the first end event of the first event sequence can be determined with a degree of certainty that is higher than the predetermined value, and wherein each of the first and second event sequences includes steps going from a first step of presenting one or more particular offers for a product and an end step of the user purchasing the offered product.