Patent ID: 7945427

Claim:
A computer-based method for predicting a probability of failure for a component of a platform at a specified time, said method comprising: collecting, within a computer memory, historical maintenance data relating to the component; selecting, utilizing the collected historical maintenance data, a lifetime distribution model that best fits the historical maintenance data; estimating, with a computer, upcoming component failures using the selected lifetime distribution model; and applying maintenance schedule dates for the platform to the upcoming component failures, with the computer, to determine a likelihood of failure of the component on one of the scheduled maintenance dates; wherein selecting a lifetime distribution model that best fits the historical maintenance data comprises using at least one of a predetermined goodness of fit factor and a lack of fit test, to determine a fit of the collected historical maintenance data to each of the available lifetime distribution models; and wherein using the at least one of the predetermined goodness of fit factor and the lack of fit test comprises evaluating a fit of the historical maintenance data with a lifetime distribution model using a test statistic that describes how closely resulting data emulates each available lifetime distribution model.