Patent ID: 8364516

Claim:
A computer implemented method of determining and reporting on a pantry loading effect on sales of a product under a promotion, comprising: calculating, with a pre-model generator, a plurality of lift terms, each lift term indicative of a lag effect during a plurality of weeks and calculated by dividing the log of sales of the product during the promotion by sales of the product absent the promotion; retrieving, with a base driver data generator, a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of the plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of a downward trend in sales of the product that was under the promotion during a first one of the plurality of weeks, and wherein the plurality of decremental effect factors include the plurality of lift terms; determining, with a scoring processor, a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term calculated by multiplying a corresponding coefficient by a corresponding one of the plurality of decremental effect factors, wherein the plurality of decremental effect terms include LIFT store-UPC coefficient terms, each of which is calculated by multiplying a corresponding store-UPC coefficient term by a corresponding one of the plurality of lift terms; determining, with the scoring processor, a pantry loading effect term by summing the LIFT store-UPC coefficient terms; determining, with an incremental driver data generator, a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term; and generating a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume.