Patent ID: 8271325

Claim:
A computer implemented method, comprising: determining a predicted performance metric for a candidate advertisement in a particular advertising slot, the predicted performance being an expected performance of the advertisement when presented in the particular advertising slot; selecting a control set of impressions for the candidate advertisement, the control set of impressions being only past impressions of the candidate advertisement that resulted in both a click of the candidate advertisement and a post-click conversion; determining a baseline predicted performance metric for the candidate advertisement, the baseline predicted performance metric being determined based on the control set of impressions and specifying a predicted measure of performance of the advertisement for the control set of impressions; comparing the predicted performance metric for the candidate advertisement when presented in the particular advertising slot to the baseline predicted performance metric for the candidate advertisement; adjusting a target bid associated with the candidate advertisement based upon the comparison of the predicted performance metric for the candidate advertisement and the baseline predicted performance metric for the candidate advertisement; and submitting the adjusted target bid to an auction for the particular advertising slot.