Patent ID: 7359799

Claim:
A method for automated location dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone forecast in which data records of weather events are generated and location dependent probability values for specific weather conditions associated with the tropical cyclone are determined, comprising: assigning data records representative of an historical track of a weather event to a year of occurrence of said weather event and saving the data records on a memory module of a calculating unit, said data records including a plurality of points representative of geographical positions and/or intensity of the event along the historical track; generating a plurality of new data records representative of alternative tracks for each historical track using a first MonteCarlo-module, wherein points of said new data records are generated from said points along the historical track by a dependent sampling process; generating a grid over a geographical area of interest using the calculation unit, said area including at least a portion of the plurality of historical tracks, and generating an intensity climatology for selected cells in the grid based upon the intensity data associated with at least some of the plurality of points along the historical tracks located within said selected grid cells; generating for each of said alternative tracks one or more new intensity data using a second MonteCarlo-module, wherein the one or more new intensity data of the new data records of said alternative tracks are generated from the intensity data associated with at least some of the plurality of points along the historical tracks by a MonteCarlo sampling process; generating a distribution for a definable time period of the data records of the historical tracks using a scaling table classifying the weather events by intensity and/or year of occurrence, and said distribution of said historical tracks are reproduced by a filtering module within the new or accumulated data records according to their assigned year; and generating a wind field of each data record based on a definable wind field profile, and assigning a probability by an interpolation-module to each point in said grid giving the probability of the occurrence of a specific wind strength at a given geographical location and time.