Patent ID: 8781651

Claim:
A computer implemented method for modeling wind forecast uncertainty along a planned flight route comprising: receiving historical flight data comprising recorded wind speeds along a planned flight route having an origin and destination; receiving forecasted wind speeds along the planned flight route; generating error values along the planned flight route based on comparing the recorded wind speeds and forecasted wind speeds; dividing the planned flight route into discrete segments based on pre-defined intervals; clustering the error values at the intervals; preparing a histogram for each cluster of error values by binning the error values in each cluster by intensity; generating, by a processor, a set of transition probability matrices by stepping through the histograms and recording transition probabilities between positions; and modeling, based on the comparing, wind speed uncertainty using a correlated stochastic process, wherein modeling the wind speed uncertainty comprises forming a Markov chain as a function of position along the planned flight route and the transition probabilities between the positions.