Patent ID: 8694354

Claim:
A computer implemented method of predicting trouble during a transition phase of a current project, the computer implemented method comprising: a processor determining a trouble correlation between past operational data and past trouble data, wherein the past operational data is associated with past healthy projects and past troubled projects before transition phases that take a project from a first phase to a second phase, wherein a transition of a current project from the first phase to the second phase makes resources, which were not available during the first phase, available to the current project, and wherein the past trouble data is collected for the past healthy projects and the past troubled projects after the transition phases; defining a set of key metrics that describe a current health of the current project before the current project's transition from the first phase to the second phase, wherein the first phase is a current phase of the current project and the second phase is a future phase of the current project; the processor identifying values of the set of key metrics for the current project; the processor comparing identified values of the set of key metrics for the current project to the past operational data for past healthy and troubled projects in order to generate a pattern comparison; the processor generating a predicted quality of transition for the current project's transition from the current phase to the future phase based on the pattern comparison and the trouble correlation, and further according to; h ~ = argmin ⁢ { ∑ q = Q ⁢  y q - h ⁡ ( x q )  2 } where {tilde over (h)} is the predicted quality of transition for the current project's transition from the current phase to the future phase, “arg min” is an argument to minimize the bracketed { } equation, ∑ q = Q is a sum of all past projects from q to Q for a square ( 2 ) of an absolute value (∥ ∥) of y q −h(x q )|, where y q is a quality of transition y from the current phase to the future phase in q past projects, and h is a set of parameters x for q past projects (x q ); and the processor generating an alert based on the predicted quality of transition for the current project.