Patent ID: 7644005

Claim:
A computer readable medium storing computer program code, for simulating the behavior of a system to thereby control said system, said system having productive subsystems (S i,j ), operating along a succession of operative phases (E 1 , . . . , E m ), the subsystems being interlinked and regulated by an industrial action parameter (r), and said subsystems also being affected by respective self-stresses (W i,j (x z )) and further being constrained to operate according to a set of criteria based on said aggregated stress, said computer program code, when executed by at least one processor, causing the at least one processor to perform the steps of: a) determining an aggregated stress (W i,j ) at a current productive subsystem (S i,j ), said aggregated stress being determined from estimates of the level of self stress (W i,j (x z )) for productive subsystems at the current operative phase, and from transferred stress from productive subsystems at a preceding operative phase; b) determining an impact parameter (I h (x z , T) (r)) for the current operative phase, the determination being based on the aggregated stress (W i,j ) of the productive subsystems of said current operative phase, said impact parameter representing the likelihood that the behaviour of the respective productive subsystem under the aggregated stress will no longer comply with the set of criteria, thus transmitting stress to a subsequent operative phase; c) repetitively operating the step a) and the step b) for all operative phases, with said transferred stress being each time affected by a pseudo-random component; d) repetitively operating the step c), each time with new pseudo-random components; e) building a failure probability distribution (Pr i,j (x z ,T,r,W z,i,j ,a i,j )) for the productive subsystems (S i,j ) using the repetitions operated by said the step d); and f) adjusting the industrial action parameter (r), based on said failure probability distribution (Pr i,j (x z ,T,r,W z,i,j ,a i,j )); wherein the step a) determines the aggregated stress (W i,j ) for each of the productive subsystem (S i,j ) using following formula: W i,j =W i,j,self +Σ k W′ i,j,k =W i,j,self +Σ k W i,j,k *d i,i−1,j *q i,j,k wherein: W i,j,self are estimates of the level of self stress for a given subsystem (S i,j ), Σ k W′ i,j,k is the sum of transmitted stress between subsystems (S i,j ), W i,j,k are the stress of preceding subsystems (S i−1,k ) that are transmitted to (S i,j ), d i,i−1 are transmission coefficients between the subsystems (S i−1,k ) and (S i,j ), and q i,j,k are predetermined linkage coefficients between two successive subsystems (S i−1,k ) and (S i,j ).