Patent ID: 8682710

Claim:
A method implemented in a computer infrastructure having computer executable code tangibly embodied on a computer readable storage medium having programming instructions operable to: store characteristics for earlier technologies that have already been adopted; store sampling data comprising data relating to actual technology adoption of the earlier technologies, and data relating to an assessment of the actual technology adoption of the earlier technologies relative to the stored characteristics for the earlier technologies; receive and assess current technology adoption trends for the earlier technologies based on the stored characteristics and sampling data for the earlier technologies, wherein the assessment of the current technology adoption trends comprises analyzing a difference between a technology adoption forecast curve associated with the stored characteristics of the earlier technologies and an actual user experience associated with the actual technology adoption of the earlier technologies; and provide a new technology adoption forecast curve for a new technology that has not been adopted based on the assessment of the current technology adoption trends for the earlier technologies; and determine a user experience for adopting the new technology over the earlier technology using the new technology adoption forecast curve, wherein the user experience changes between an introduction of the new technology and the adoption of the new technology, wherein the providing the new technology adoption forecast curve comprises: determining the new technology adoption forecast curve based on a rate of adoption of the earlier technologies or a relative offset of adoption curves for at least two of the earlier technologies; determine a time gap between a current technological state of an organization and a potential future technological state of the organization, wherein the potential future technological state indicates a time when the organization may either decide to remain using at least one of the earlier technologies or adopt the new technology; and determine at least one technology gap at a specified time between the at least one of the earlier technologies being used by the organization and the new technology, wherein the technology gap indicates a gap between capabilities of the at least one of the earlier technologies and the new technology.