Patent ID: 8140377

Claim:
A system for predictive analytics for a target entity using real-world pharmaceutical transactions, comprising: a computer having a processor and memory; a data collection component controlled by the processor, configured to aggregate data for a plurality of pharmaceutical transactions external to the target entity, the aggregate data corresponding to publicly-traded financial data based upon a predetermined time period surrounding a public announcement of the respective pharmaceutical transaction; a data reduction module controlled by the processor, configured to eliminate non-compliant transactions to generate a reduced transaction data set; an analysis module controlled by the processor, configured to apply multiple linear regression analysis to a first portion of the reduced transaction data set to identify key regression variables that correlate with an excess total return to shareholders; the analysis module configured to apply logistic regression analysis to a second portion of the reduced transaction data set to identify key regression variables that correlate with an increased probability of regulatory agency approval; the key regression variables including drug clinical trial phase including phase I trials, phase II trials, and phase III trials; deal type; compound type, which indicates whether the respective pharmaceutical transaction involves a small molecule compound having a molecular weight of less than or equal to 1000 Daltons or a large molecule compound having a molecular weight greater than 1000 Daltons; and therapeutic area; a comparator module that based on the regression analysis applied, determines that: an increased total return to shareholders for a buyer correlates with a respective pharmaceutical transaction involving the phase III trial; an increased total return to shareholders for a buyer correlates with a respective pharmaceutical transaction involving a phase I trial wherein the deal type is a license, a non-competitive collaboration, or a competitive collaboration; a decreased total return to shareholders for a buyer correlates with a respective pharmaceutical transaction involving a phase II trial wherein the deal type is the license; and a report generator adapted to provide a graphical output of the identified key regression variables and an indication of the corresponding effect on total return to shareholders, and a probability value corresponding to a likelihood of regulatory agency approval.