Patent ID: 8768812

Claim:
A system for performing a performance-option valuation, the system including a plurality of modules configured to perform a plurality of operations, the modules and operations comprising: a utility distribution module configured to determine a present value distribution of contingent future positive utility attributable to making a resource commitment to a particular asset at a subsequent time, the present value distribution of contingent future positive utility being determined based upon first parameters that reflect risk in the positive utility, the present value distribution of contingent future positive utility assigning a respective probability to each of a plurality of different total positive utility values, each total positive utility value reflecting a benefit gained by the particular asset achieving a certain level of performance; a cost distribution module configured to determine a present value of a contingent future negative utility required to make the resource commitment at the subsequent time or deviate from a resource commitment to a known alternative asset, the present value of the contingent future negative utility being determined based upon second parameters that reflect risk in the negative utility, the present value of the contingent future negative utility reflecting a cost incurred by the particular asset achieving the certain level of performance, or reflecting the benefit gained from the known alternative asset; and a payoff determinator or performance option valuation module configured to determine a value of an option to make the resource commitment as a function of the present value distribution of contingent future positive utility and the present value of the contingent future negative utility, wherein the modules are implemented by one or more apparatuses including one or more processors and one or more memories storing executable instructions that in response to execution by the one or more processors cause the one or more apparatuses to perform the operations of the modules.