Patent ID: 8527403

Claim:
An apparatus comprising: a memory device comprising population information and a plurality of migration factors stored therein, wherein the population information comprises information about population distribution across a plurality of classifications, and wherein each of the plurality of migration factors corresponds to a particular classification of the plurality of classifications and indicates how population members of the particular classification migrate to other classifications over a particular time period; wherein the memory device further comprises at least one treatment factor stored therein, wherein the at least one treatment factor indicates how a treatment applied to the population is expected to affect migration across the classifications over the particular time period, the treatment comprising an offer of an incentive for a population member of a particular classification to migrate to another classification, wherein the at least one treatment factor comprises a treatment up-shift factor that represents a percentage of population members of a particular classification that will move to a different classification as a result of the treatment being applied to the population, and wherein the at least one treatment factor comprises a treatment fall-back factor that represents a percentage of population members of a particular classification that will move to a different classification as a result of the treatment being stopped; and the apparatus further comprising: a processor communicably coupled to the memory device and configured to: use the migration factors and the population information to forecast changes in the population distribution across each of the plurality of classifications over multiple time periods; use at least one of the migration factors to forecast changes in the population distribution for a particular time period if the treatment is not applied in the particular time period and was not applied in an immediately preceding time period to the particular time period; use the treatment up-shift factor in conjunction with at least one of the migration factors to forecast changes in the population distribution for the particular time period if the treatment is applied in the particular time period but was not applied in the immediately preceding time period; use the treatment fall-back factor in conjunction with at least one of the migration factors to forecast changes in the population distribution for the particular time period if the treatment is not applied in the particular time period but was applied in the immediately preceding time period; and use the treatment fall-back factor and the treatment up-shift factor in conjunction with at least one of the migration factors to forecast changes in the population distribution for the particular time period if the treatment is applied in the particular time period and was applied in the immediately preceding time period.