Patent ID: 7219015

Claim:
A computer method of generating a probabilistic data set relating to a weather event, comprising the steps of: a) inputting data representative of an historical track of a weather event, said data including a plurality of points representative of geographical positions along the historical track; and b) generating data representative of a plurality of alternative tracks based on said historical track, said data including a plurality of alternative points representative of geographical positions along said alternative tracks; c) wherein said alternative points are generated from said points along the historical track by a dependent sampling process; d) wherein the step of inputting data representative of a track of an historical weather event includes inputting data representative of intensity of the event; e) wherein said data representative of intensity comprises atmospheric pressure data associated with at least some of the plurality of points along the historical track, said atmospheric pressure data defining an historical pressure profile of the historical track; and f) wherein the step of inputting data includes inputting data representative of a plurality of historical tracks, and further comprising the step of establishing a grid over a geographical area of interest, said area including at least a portion of the plurality of historical tracks.