Patent ID: 8918345

Claim:
A method of operating a network comprising a plurality of network elements, the method comprising the steps of: a) analysing, via a computer comprising one or more processors, a first datastore comprising data representing historical network performance; b) creating within the first datastore: i) a first index relating to the probability that a network element generates an alarm event, said probability being proportional to the number of alarm events issued by said network element; ii) a second index relating to the probability that a first network element and a second network element both generate an alarm event within a predetermined time period, said probability being proportional to the number of alarm event pairs where an alarm event is issued by said first network element and an alarm event is issued by said second network element; and iii) a third index relating to the probability that a second network element generates an alarm event given that a first network element previously generated an alarm event within a predetermined time period, said probability being proportional to the number of alarm events where said first network element issues a first alarm event and then said second network element issues a second alarm event; c) creating one or more probability networks in accordance with the indices created in step b); d) determining from the one or more probability networks a conditional probability associated with an alarm event; and e) if the conditional probability determined in step d) is less than a threshold value, disregarding the associated alarm event; or f) if the conditional probability determined in step d) is greater than a threshold value, using the associated alarm event in conjunction with other historical network data to predict future alarm events.