Patent ID: 8069370

Claim:
A computer-implemented method comprising: generating a plurality of measurement values, each measurement value of said plurality of measurement values representing a value for a system measure of a plurality of system measures, wherein each system measure of said plurality of system measures represents a system measure of a computer system; detecting one or more system problems of said computer system based on said plurality of measurement values and a probabilistic model; wherein said probabilistic model defines: a) a cause-effect relationship between a system measure state for said each system measure and a problem of the one or more system problems of said computer system, wherein the system measure state is determined based on one or more measurement values of said plurality of measurement values representing a value for said each system measure; and b) a cause-effect relationship between one problem and another problem of the one or more system problems of said computer system; c) for each problem of the one or more system problems of said computer system, a probability that said each problem has occurred in said computer system; wherein said probabilistic model is expressed at least in part as nodes and directed connections, wherein each directed connection of the directed connections leads from a first node to a second fault node; wherein the first node is one of: a) an observation node that represents a first system measure state; or b) a fault node that represents a first problem in said computer system; wherein the first system measure state or the first problem represented by the first node causes a second problem represented by the second fault node; wherein detecting said one or more system problems includes for each fault node of a set of fault nodes of said probabilistic model: generating probability of failure values for probability time points in a probability time interval, by generating a probability of failure value of said probability of failure values for each probability time point of said probability time interval; and computing an aggregate probability of failure value over the probability of failure values; and determining whether a problem has occurred in said computer system based at least on the aggregate probability of failure value computed for at least one fault node of said probabilistic model.