Patent ID: 7474992

Claim:
A trending system comprising: a sliding window filter; and wherein: the sliding window filter receives a data set from a clock system; the data set comprises a plurality of data points; the sliding window filter selects multiple data windows in the data set; each of the data windows includes a subset plurality of the data points in the data set; the sliding window filter generates upper confidence bounds and lower confidence bounds for each data point through regression and interval estimation over each of the multiple data windows that includes the data point; the sliding window filter compares the interval widths of the confidence intervals produced by regression over each of the multiple data windows that includes the data point; the sliding window filter selects a fit for each data point that results in the smallest confidence interval for that data point; and the sliding window filter generates a filtered estimate of the data set from the selected upper confidence bounds and lower confidence bounds for each data point; and a trend change detection mechanism, wherein: the trend change detection mechanism determines a first convex hull for a set of upper confidence bounds and a second convex hull for a set of lower confidence bounds; a comparator mechanism compares the first convex hull and the second convex hull to determine a transition point in the data set; and an estimated trend of the data set is determined from the transition point and data after the transition point.