Patent ID: 8533082

Claim:
A computer-implemented method, comprising: receiving data taken across an aggregate of a plurality of consumers, wherein the data comprises: a total spending amount for the aggregate of the plurality of consumers; and a total debt amount for the aggregate of the plurality of consumers; determining, by one or more processing devices, a value of a ratio, wherein the ratio comprises a comparison of a value of a logarithm of the total debt amount over the period of time for the aggregate of the plurality of consumers to a value of a logarithm of the total spending amount over the period of time for the aggregate of the plurality of consumers; determining, by the one or more processing device, an equilibrium curve of the ratio that compares the value of the logarithm of the total debt amount over the period of time for the aggregate of the plurality of consumers to the value of the logarithm of the total spending amount over the period of time for the aggregate of the plurality of consumers; comparing the value of the ratio to the equilibrium curve of the ratio; when the one or more processing devices determine that the value of the ratio is greater than the equilibrium curve of the ratio, providing an indication that consumer leverage is increasing; when the one or more processing devices determine that the value of the ratio is less than the equilibrium curve of the ratio, providing an indication that consumer leverage is decreasing; and adjusting credit exposure of a financial institution based at least in part on the indication that consumer leverage is increasing or the indication that consumer leverage is decreasing.