Patent ID: 7389281

Claim:
In a computer-based risk management system utilizing fuzzy logic, a method for generating an indication of risk, said method comprising: a) said system receiving an expert defined rule entered by a user into said risk management system mapping at least one rule input A to at least one rule output B; b) said system receiving a data input A′ and a data output B′ from said user; c) comparing said data input A′ with said rule input A to determine a first degree of mismatch d x between said rule input A and said data input A′; d) assigning a function M P characterizing the way in which an envelope of possibility B P spreads as a function of the first degree of mismatch d x between said rule input A and said data input A′, said envelope of possibility being indicative of possible outputs; e) using said first degree of mismatch and said function M P to calculate a second degree of mismatch d y between said rule output B and a said data output B′; f) calculating said envelope of possibility B P using said function M P and said data output B′; g) calculating an envelope of belief B B indicating a degree to which said data output B′ is true, using said first degree of mismatch d x between said rule input A and said data input A′; h) said system receiving additional expert input having at least one assertion G required to be proven true; i) said system receiving an expert defined minimum degree of proof H min of said assertion G; j) comparing said envelope of belief B B and said assertion G to determine an actual degree of proof H for said assertion G; k) comparing said required minimum degree of proof H min and said actual degree of proof H to generate a first conclusion about an acceptability of said actual degree of proof H for said assertion G; l) said system receiving an expert defined minimum degree of ignorance l min for said assertion G; m) calculating an actual degree of ignorance l for said assertion G according to a difference between said envelope of belief B B and said envelope of possibilities B P ; n) comparing said minimum degree of ignorance l for said assertion G and said actual degree of ignorance l for said assertion G to generate a second conclusion about an acceptability of said degree of ignorance l for said assertion G; o) said system receiving an expert defined minimum degree of possibility K min for said assertion G; p) comparing said envelope of possibilities B P and said assertion G to calculate an actual degree of possibility K for said assertion G; q) comparing said actual degree of possibility K and said required minimum degree of possibility K min to generate a third conclusion about an acceptability of said degree of possibility K for said assertion G; r) generating said indication of risk by evaluating said conclusions against said assertion G, said indication of risk indicating whether or not said assertion G is good; and s) said system outputting said indication of risk.