Patent ID: 7493246

Claim:
A modeling system for modeling a complex system, comprising: one or more processors; and a memory storing a program of instructions for a modeling tool, the modeling tool comprising: a simulator device for simulating the complex system, the simulator device comprising an input for entering given inputs and an output at which prediction values of the complex system are provided, the simulator device simulating the complex system; and a calibration device, comprising a prediction input that receives prediction values from the prediction output of the simulator device; an observation input that receives measurement data obtained from observation of outputs of the complex system to be simulated; a decomposition mechanism for carrying out a decomposition of the received prediction values into prediction independent components, and a decomposition of the measurement data into measured independent components, the decomposition mechanism having an output at which the prediction independent components and the measured independent components are provided; second stage processor logic comprising an input, the input receiving the prediction independent components and the measured independent components from the decomposition mechanism, the processor logic comprising logic to: determine, in a prior learning phase, modifications to be made to the received prediction independent components to match the corresponding measured independent components; and modify the received prediction independent components in accordance with the determined modifications to produce calibrated predicted independent components, the second stage processor logic further comprising an output at which a signal related to the calibrated predicted independent components is provided to the modeling tool user.