Patent ID: 8103539

Claim:
A method for forecasting un-reported prescription/product transactions or transactions that are not timely reported in a subject time interval to a sample store or outlet in a universe of product stores, the universe of product stores comprising sample stores and non-sample stores in market channels such as retail, mail order, and long term care, the sample stores generally reporting prescription transaction data to a history database, the method comprising the steps of: using a computer processor to: identify new products that have been launched in a number of recent weeks using the sales volume change of the products in the number of recent weeks in the prescription transactions stored in the history database; assign products from the prescription transaction data to product groups based on sales volume of the products or therapy class; for each product group, generate data files including projected national prescription count information by product for each of a number of channels, and generate data files including raw prescription counts at the outlet/product level; combine the datafiles including projected national prescription count information and raw prescription counts; identify outlets as normal volume or low volume outlets using a predefined sales volume threshold, wherein the low volume outlets are identified as the outlets having a sales volume smaller than the predefined sales volume threshold, and the normal volume outlets are identified as the outlets having a sales volume equal or greater than the predefined sales volume threshold; for low volume outlets, using a 4 week average of outlet/product raw prescription counts as a forecast for the current week volume; for normal volume outlets, when the product is not new, using a moving four-week average of outlet/product raw prescription counts to forecast the current week volume based on outlet/product raw prescription counts for a prior number of weeks and the generated projected national prescription counts for both the current week and the prior number of weeks; for normal volume outlets, when the product is new, using a national ratio of product prescription counts to product group prescription counts applied at outlet level to forecast a new product volume for the current week; and generate a combined forecast based at least in part on the forecasts in connection with the low and normal volume outlets.