Patent ID: 7882075

Claim:
A system for predicting a demand on a computer resource, comprising: a storage device for storing a first log and a second log; first means for acquiring a first log on a use of the resource at a plurality of times, which has been periodically recorded, and a second log on transactions using the resource at corresponding times, which has been periodically recorded; second means for estimating resource utilization for each type of transaction on the basis of information resource use at the plurality of times included in the first log and information on a number of transactions of each transaction type processed at corresponding times included in the second log by calculating an average value of resource use for a fixed time period, calculating an amount of processing for each transaction type for the fixed time period from the number of transactions of each transaction type processed, and estimating the resource utilization for each type of transaction by a multiple linear regression analysis of the average value of resource use and the amount of processing for each transaction type; third means for acquiring the second log and, performing a statistical time-series analysis on the basis of time-series data of the number of transactions of each transaction type processed by identifying a plurality of time-series models for each transaction type using the statistical time-series data for the number of transactions of each transaction type processed, comparing each time-series model of the plurality of time-series models for each transaction type to the time-series data of the number of transactions of each transaction type processed to determine an error for each time-series model, selecting a time-series model for each transaction type from the plurality of time-series models for each transaction type which has the smallest error, and predicting a future amount of processing volume for each transaction type using the selected time-series model for each transaction type; and fourth means for predicting a computer resource demand on the basis of the resource utilization for each transaction type estimated by said second means and the future amount of processing for each transaction type predicted by said third means by summing products of the resource utilization for each transaction type and the future amount of processing for each transaction type.