Patent ID: 8756038

Claim:
A method of modeling a production system, comprising: creating a deterministic model representing the production system, the model comprising one or more inputs and parameters that are not deterministically known, and one or more outputs; using a prior probability density function to determine a prior uncertainty related to a first of at least one of the inputs and parameters that are not deterministically known; obtaining a measurement related to a first of the outputs, wherein the first of the outputs is assumed to have a measurement uncertainty that is determined using a conditional probability density function, and wherein the conditional probability density function is conditioned on at least one of the inputs or parameters that are not deterministically known; determining, by a computer processor, a posterior probability density function of the first of at least one of the inputs and parameters that are not deterministically known using the prior probability density function, the measurement, and the conditional probability density function; generating, by the computer processor based on the posterior probability density function and using a pre-determined statistical sampling method, a plurality of posterior probabilistically sampled pressure-temperature operating profiles of the production system; performing a risk analysis based on the plurality of posterior probabilistically sampled pressure-temperature operating profiles and a pre-determined pressure-temperature phase envelope to generate a risk analysis result, wherein the pre-determined pressure-temperature phase envelope represents a production problem of the production system; and presenting, to a user, the risk analysis result.