Patent ID: 8645249

Claim:
A method of modeling bounds of uncertainty of future benefits of a good comprising: determining a mean value and standard deviation associated with the future benefit of the good for each time segment, wherein the mean value is determined based upon a growth rate associated with the future benefit of the good for the respective time segment, and wherein the standard deviation is determined based upon an uncertainty for the good for the respective time segment; and modeling, with a computer processor, an upper and lower bound of uncertainty associated with the future benefit of the good over time, wherein modeling the upper and lower bounds of uncertainty is based upon the mean value and standard deviation for each time segment to thereby define a cone of uncertainty that increases outwardly as time progresses, wherein modeling the upper and lower bounds of uncertainty comprises modeling the upper and lower bounds of uncertainty for each time segment t based upon the future benefit of the good at time t and a distribution defined by a mean value of the future benefit of the good at time t+1 and a standard deviation of the future benefit of the good at time t+1.