Patent ID: 8406935

Claim:
A load forecasting analysis system for calculating a customer baseline load (CBL), comprising: a CBL forecaster for receiving a load profile and providing a CBL forecasting method; a period selector for selecting conditions used to calculate the CBL using the load profile; a CBL processor for calculating a forecasting value of the CBL using the CBL forecasting method according to the load profile and the selected conditions; a CBL determiner for calculating an error value by comparing the load profile with the forecasting value; a short-term demand forecaster for receiving the load profile and providing a future value forecasting method of the load profile; a forecasting processor for forecasting an amount of electric power use using various parameters and options used in the short-term demand forecaster; and a forecasting determiner for forecasting a total amount of electric power use and an amount of short-term electric power consumption by class of industry and class of contract according to a customer classification reference and selecting a short-term forecasting model by comparing forecast models, wherein the future value forecasting method includes at least one of a method using an average load profile for 10 days immediately before a forecasting date, a method using an average load profile for 8 days excluding maximum and minimum load profile values out of the load profile for 10 days immediately before a forecasting date, and a time series analysis method, and the time series analysis method includes at least one of a moving average method, an exponential smoothing method, and an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model.