Patent ID: 7848943

Claim:
A system that supports at least one of a purchase and a production of a product, comprising: an input means for accepting an input of a history of a supplied amount of the product and a history of a sold amount that is a quantity of the product sold from the supplied amount of the product to form an input history; a function generating means (i) for representing a conditional probability function showing probability distribution of the sold amount when the sold amount is restricted by the supplied amount by means of a potential demand probability function including a parameter showing probability distribution of the sold amount when the sold amount is not restricted by the supplied amount and (ii) for computing a value of the parameter maximizing a value of a likelihood function of the conditional probability function using the input history as a sample, in order to generate the potential demand probability function; a supplied amount computing means for computing a supplied amount of the product maximizing a profit by a sale of the product, and outputting the computed supplied amount as a quantity of the product to either be purchased or produced, based on the generated potential demand probability function and a predetermined selling price and supplying price of the product; and a selecting means for selecting a set of a supplied amount and a sold amount in case that the sold amount is less than the supplied amount by at least a difference value M among sets of sold amounts n i and supplied amounts m i (0≦i≦1) included in the input history to form a selected history, wherein the function generating means comprises: means for representing the conditional probability function P′ in an equation P ′ ⁡ ( n ⁢  m i  ⁢ a , b , c , … ) = F ⁡ ( n | a , b , c , … ) / ∑ n = 0 m i - M ⁢ ⁢ F ⁡ ( n | a , b , c , … ) for computing a contingent probability under a condition that a sold amount is less than a supplied amount by at least the difference value M by means of the potential demand probability function F; and means for computing a value of the parameter maximizing a value of the likelihood function of the conditional probability function P′ relative to the selected history.