Patent ID: 7698233

Claim:
A method for quantifying an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system, wherein all steps are performed by a computer, comprising: generating an energy load demand forecast based at least in part on a weather year model stored in a memory of the computing system; committing a plurality of energy generation resources to meet the energy load demand; determining an operating status for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system; determining if the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand; selecting a dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand, wherein the plurality of energy resources includes a plurality of steam units, a plurality of pumped storage hydro units, a plurality of combustion turbine units, a plurality of combined cycle units, a plurality of emergency hydro resources, a market purchase of energy and a plurality of curtailable contracts; dispatching the plurality of curtailable contracts in a descending order based on an elapsed time since a previous curtailment for each contract such that the contract having a longest elapsed time is curtailed first providing an even distribution of energy load shedding among a plurality of customers having curtailable contracts; committing additional resources based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met; and determining the expected unserved energy and shedding an equivalent amount of energy load demand based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping.