Patent ID: 8015276

Claim:
A method for determining capacity in complex systems by setting capacity values for service transaction types that assist in identifying performance bottlenecks comprising: listing the service transaction types; identifying Workflow Manager (WFM) data where invocation data records for each of the service transaction types are located; retrieving the WFM data; parsing the WFM data to acquire the invocation data records for each of the service transaction types; for a given transaction type; determining average response time RT h aggregation levels and volume counts count h , wherein the volume counts count h is the traffic load and is a count of successful transactions within a predetermined measurement interval h and the average response time RT h is calculated for successful transactions within the predetermined measurement interval h; performing a linear regression of data pairs (count h , RT h ); determining a Response Time Model RTM (x) to be z 0 + z 1 1 - z 2 ⁢ x , wherein the RTM (x) models the average response time RT h of a specific function for a given load (x) as the sum of the sojourn time in each service node required to process the function, wherein z 0 is the expected amount of time to traverse non-bottlenecked nodes, z 1 is the expected amount of time to traverse a bottleneck node under no transaction load and z 2 is the average amount of time of a bottleneck node per transaction type; estimating the response time model z parameters z 0 , z 1 and z 2 from the data pairs (count h , RT h ) calculating a maximum throughput 1 z 2 that the complex system can handle; calculating a capacity warning value (linear knee) L 1 ; calculating a capacity limit value (quadratic knee) L 2 ; and analyzing a time trend of the volume counts count h to determine when the capacity warning value L 1 and the capacity limit value L 2 will be reached if the current volume counts count h trends continue.