Patent ID: 8688501

Claim:
A computer implemented method for composing an aggregate risk model representing an operational risk of an organization, said model comprising: receiving, at a programmed processor unit, a risk quantification request including risk input data associated with a plurality of risk nodes from a user input device, said plurality of risk nodes including non-elicited risk nodes invoking a mathematical model that quantifies a risk, and elicited risk nodes that quantify risk by human expert evaluation; dynamically building responsive to said request, via said programmed processor unit, a probabilistic risk network model of interconnected nodes representing an interdependence of risk factors associated with operational risk of an organization and having one or more associated risk models; running one or more risk models at each risk node to output individual risk quantifications for each risk node; wherein for each risk node of said network having multiple associated risk models: searching a library of risk models for the one or more risk models that fit the risk input data; selecting, based on a risk model selection rule, the one or more risk models that fit the risk input data from the library of risk models, the risk model selection rule based on factors including: data sources accessed, a geographic location of a risk quantification requestor, a temporal freshness of the data, and a speed of model operation and the model output; running said one or more risk models to output respective individual risk quantifications for that node; and when multiple risk models are run, aggregating the individual risk quantification outputs of the selected risk models into a single output of said risk node; and combining the single output of said risk node with a model output of another risk node to provide an aggregate risk model, wherein said programmed processor unit executes said dynamically providing, running, searching, selecting, running, aggregating and combining steps.