Patent ID: 7231299

Claim:
A method of predicting weather on a computer by creating a weather scenario from historical weather data, comprising: a first step of estimating parameters of a weather time-series model based on historical weather data including past plural meteorological elements, a meteorological element correlation between sites, and a correlation between meteorological elements; and a second step of converting random numbers into meteorological elements based on the estimated parameters wherein the first step comprises: a third step of estimating a precipitation parameter based on historical precipitation data and a precipitation correlation between sites, and a fourth step of estimating a temperature parameter based on historical temperature data, a temperature correlation between sites, and a correlation between temperature and precipitation wherein the parameters include: first parameter describing statistical characteristics of precipitations on each site, second parameter describing statistical characteristics of temperature on each site, third parameter describing correlations between temperature and precipitations on each site, fourth parameter describing correlations between temperatures on each pair of sites, and fifth parameter describing correlations between precipitations on each pair of sites, wherein the method creates a plurality of weather scenarios by executing the second step predetermined times, and outputting the weather scenarios that are created.