Patent ID: 8706545

Claim:
An adaptive decisioning system for making decisions between available choices, the system comprising: a processor arranged and programmed to select a choice from the available choices based at least in part on evaluating a plurality of prior outcomes for the available choices, the processor being a computer processor forming part of at least one computing system, an input/output system in communication with the processor and arranged to communicate the selected choice to a user and to receive an outcome relating to the selected choice, wherein the processor, using at least one model, automatically learns from the outcome by basing at least some subsequently calculated estimated probabilities on the outcome, and adjusts a variable learning rate at which the outcome is incorporated in the subsequently calculated estimated probabilities; wherein each model estimates a probability of accepting an offer i at time t by: {circumflex over (p)} i ( t )=(1−η){circumflex over (p)} i (t−1)+η I i ( t ) where η is a learning rate parameter that controls how much the prior outcomes are relied upon; wherein as η approaches 1, the prior outcomes are weighted less, and as η approaches zero, the network parameters change from a previous model; wherein I i (t) is a feedback indicator function for offer i at the time t, which can be either 1 or 0: I i ⁡ ( t ) = { 1 ⁢ ⁢ with ⁢ ⁢ probability ⁢ ⁢ p i 0 ⁢ ⁢ with ⁢ ⁢ probability ⁢ ⁢ 1 - p i .