Patent ID: 8099356

Claim:
A computer-implemented method of predicting a capacity of a consumer to undertake incremental debt in the future, the method being implemented by one or more data processors and comprising: storing, by at least one data processor, computer-readable instructions which, when executed, implement a predictive model that simulates performance of the consumer in view of the incremental debt, the performance of the consumer determining the capacity of the consumer; inputting, to the predictive model and by at least one data processor, data representing a credit risk score and a credit report, the credit report comprising a plurality of prediction characteristics; and outputting, by at least one data processor of the predictive model, a capacity index that estimates said capacity of the consumer to undertake the incremental debt in the future without defaulting on the incremental debt; wherein the predictive model is generated by: selecting a sample population of accounts from a source population; for each account, generating, at beginning of a predetermined performance window, a first snapshot comprising a credit risk score for each member of the sample population and a plurality of prediction characteristics for each member of said sample population; for each account, determining, from a second snapshot generated at end of the predetermined performance window, performance of each member based on the undertaking of the incremental debt by the member at a predetermined time between the beginning and the end of the predetermined performance window, the performance being characterized as one of good and bad, the performance determining a capacity of the member such that a good performance represents a higher capacity that a lower capacity represented by bad performance; for each account, weighting the performance of each member by the incremental debt; for each account, generating a tag that expresses the performance of each member numerically; for all accounts in aggregate, by means of a software modeling tool, creating the predictive model that describes a relationship among the prediction characteristics for each member, the relationship rewarding good performance and penalizing bad performance such that accounts showing a high capacity are ranked higher than accounts showing low capacity; and for each account, adjusting said predictive model by subtracting said risk score from the tag, wherein a remainder of the subtraction comprises said capacity index.