Patent ID: 7827053

Claim:
A method for tire market forecasting comprising: a. deriving by utilizing a data processing apparatus a full trend by a first sub-method for a first tire size based upon a relationship between original equipment and replacement markets for first tire size tires, including; determining past original equipment volume for the first tire size tires; determining past replacement volume for the first tire size tires; measuring past ratio of replacement volume/original equipment; applying ratio replacement volume/original equipment to a logarithmic function based on compound annual growth rate to obtain a first trend for a first period; repeating for subsequent periods to derive the full trend for the first tire size; b. deriving by utilizing the data processing apparatus a full trend by a second sub-method for the first tire size in an estimated vehicle fleet for first tire size tires, including; estimating vehicle destruction rate over time and tire replacement cycle; calculating total number of tires to be replaced based on current vehicle fleet and tire replacement cycle; obtaining original equipment production data for past, present and future vehicles; estimating total first tire size tires to be replaced over a future time period; comparing the full trend for the first tire size derived by the first sub-method for a first tire size to the full trend derived by the second sub-method for the first tire size to derive a regular forecast; and c. deriving by utilizing the data processing apparatus the first tire size regular forecast.