Patent ID: 8712739

Claim:
A system for analyzing turbomachinery comprising: a processor programmed to: execute a hybrid risk model comprising a physics-based sub model and a statistical sub model, wherein the physics-based sub model is configured to model physical components of a gas turbine system by using a life parameter (LP) function F (metal temperature T metal , stress σ at a location of interest of the gas turbine system, fired hours per start of the gas turbine system)=remaining time before unplanned event occurrence based on a data set, and the LP function F is used by the processor to derive a physics-based maintenance factor (MF) derivation MF=SSF*1/NLP where SSF is a stress scaling factor and NLP is a normalized LP function F, and the statistical sub model is configured to model historical information of a gas turbine unit by calculating an actual fired hours for the gas turbine unit, and wherein the processor is configured to calculate an equivalent fired hour parameter Equivalent FH=MF*FH where FH is the actual fired hours by combining the MF derivation with the actual fired hours and to transform the equivalent fired hour parameter into a probability of retirement of a component of the gas turbine unit by predicting a probability of occurrence of the unplanned event based on a current number of fired hours for the gas turbine unit.