Patent ID: 8160995

Claim:
A method of predicting information related to a characteristic of a tropical cyclone, the method comprising: (a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks corresponding to the tropical cyclone for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers; (b) assigning a scaling factor from a set of scaling factors to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective track; (c) predicting a value for at least one characteristic for the tropical cyclone at the intersection of each of the plurality of model tracks with a boundary; and (d) calculating, by at least one computer, a set of probabilities for the value of the at least one characteristic corresponding to a forecast value of the at least one characteristic at the time of intersection of the tropical cyclone with the boundary based at least in part on the values from step (c) and the scaling factors assigned to each of the plurality of model tracks.