Patent ID: 8112302

Claim:
A computer-implemented method for reconciling forecasts, comprising: determining constraints, using one or more data processors, wherein the constraints include one or more explicit constraints and one or more implicit constraints for forecasts to be generated, wherein an implicit constraint includes a requirement that a reconciled forecast for a parent node is based upon an aggregation of one or more reconciled forecasts for children nodes of the parent node, wherein the reconciled forecast for the parent node is mathematically equivalent to the aggregation of the reconciled forecasts for the children nodes, and wherein the reconciled forecasts include associated measures of uncertainty; generating, using the one or more data processors, forecasts for a plurality of nodes hierarchically arranged in parent-child relationships, wherein the generated forecasts are independently generated for each node without consideration of other forecasts; and using, using the one or more data processors, the one or more explicit and implicit constraints and a non-linear optimizer to reconcile the generated forecasts, wherein the non-linear optimizer adjusts one or more of the generated forecasts so that the constraints are met while concurrently minimizing a loss function that penalizes a functional of the differences between reconciled forecasts and generated forecasts.