Patent ID: 7695434

Claim:
A medical device for predicting a user's future glycemic state comprising: a memory module; a processor module; and a user alert module, wherein the memory module is configured to receive and store a plurality of glucose concentrations as a function of time that were generated by a user's use of a continuous glucose monitor, and wherein the processor module is configured to: derive a first glucose prediction equation that is a fit to the plurality of glucose concentrations as a function of time stored in the memory module, the fit being based on a first mathematical model; derive a second glucose prediction equation that is a fit to the plurality of glucose concentrations as a function of time, the fit being based on a second mathematical model; calculate a first predicted glucose concentration g1(t f ) at a predetermined future time using the first glucose prediction equation; calculate a second predicted glucose concentration g2(t f ) at the predetermined future time using the second glucose prediction equation; calculate an average predicted glucose concentration and a merit index M based on the first and second predicted glucose calculations; input the plurality of glucose concentrations as a function of time, the average predicted glucose concentration and the merit index into a trained model that outputs a set of glucose concentration probabilities for the predetermined future time, predict the user's future glycemic state based on the set of glucose concentration probabilities; wherein the user alert module is configured to alert the user in a manner dependent on the predicted user's future glycemic state; and wherein the processor module calculates the merit index using the following algorithms: M=g 2( t f )− g 1( t f )/ g 2( t f ), if g 2(t f )≧ g 1(t f ) M=g 1( t f )− g 2( t f )/ g 1( t f ), if g 2(t f )< g 1(t f ).