Patent ID: 8051174

Claim:
A computer-implemented system, comprising: a forecast component configured to provide a prediction relating to at least one of login rate or number of connections in a cluster for connection-intensive services at a future time, the forecast component including a monitor component configured to measure at least one of an actual login rate or number of connections, a model component configured to generate and maintain a model of a server load for the prediction, the model based on the at least one of the actual login rate or number of connections measured by the monitor component, and a stochastic model using at least a periodic component and a local adjustment component, the stochastic model including a sparse periodic auto-regression model based at least in part on a stochastic periodic time series, the sparse periodic auto-regression model including an auto-regression model having a specified period and a correlation with changes in data immediately prior to a current time, and the model component configured to apply the at least one of the actual login rate or number of connections to the sparse periodic auto-regression model to develop the model, and an evaluation component configured to determine a least squares fit solution based upon the developed model, the least squares fit solution to provide values of unknown quantities required to utilize the model for determining a forecast factors portion of multiplicative factors; a load dispatching component configured to distribute incoming login requests to a number of active servers according to at least one of a load balancing mechanism or a load skewing mechanism; a dynamic load analysis component configured to evaluate dynamic behaviors in login rate and number of connections in the cluster as a result of load dispatching; and a provisioning component configured to determine a number of servers in the cluster needed based at least in part on the prediction and dynamic behaviors, the provisioning component including an additional margin in the number of servers needed in accordance with multiplicative factors ascertained based upon the prediction and dynamic behavior, the multiplicative factors including at least the forecast factors portion and a dynamic factors portion.