federicosabbadini/patch-aliasing-bayesian

Patch-Aliasing Bayesian Analysis Data

Raw and processed data from the Bayesian analysis of structural patch-aliasing in Chronos-Bolt Tiny. Companion to the model weights at federicosabbadini/chronos-bolt-patch-aliasing-models.

Structure

clean_15model/          # 15 preregistered (P,S) configurations
full_22model/           # all 22 configurations (adds 7 robustness checks)
h1_fixed_offset/        # supplementary H1 analysis with fixed offset

Each run folder contains:

• 01_prior_spec.json / .parquet — prior specification
• 03_recovery.parquet — parameter recovery test
• 04_*.nc — MCMC trace files (NetCDF/ArviZ InferenceData)
• 05_diagnostics.parquet — convergence diagnostics
• 05_sensitivity.parquet — prior sensitivity analysis
• 05_verdicts.parquet — hypothesis verdicts
• data/ — input data (contrasts, collapse profiles, MDL cells, sites)
• data/signals/ — generated probe signals
• figures/ — analysis figures (prior predictive, forests, combs, PPC, sensitivity)
• run.log — execution log

Models fitted

ID	Estimand	Hypothesis
A	Population forecast attenuation	H1 behavioural
B	Codelength expansion at locked frequencies	H1 representational
C	Phase-offset dispersion	H2
D1	Token-collapse grid labelling	H3a (stride branch)
D2	Stride-scaling slope	H3a (κ_S)

Key results

• H1 behavioural: inconclusive (forecast contrast 1.08 [0.45, 2.49])
• H1 representational: supported on clean (codelength 1.27 [1.23, 1.31])
• H2 phase invariance: supported (σ_φ = 0.033, ROPE prob 0.997)
• H3a stride branch: supported (κ_S = 1.000 [0.992, 1.008])
• H3b patch branch: not identified

Trace file sizes

The .nc files contain full MCMC traces (4 chains × 2000 draws). Models A and C are large (~8 GB each) due to per-observation random effects; Models B, D1, D2 are smaller (4–730 MB).

License

Apache-2.0 — same as the Chronos models these data derive from.