model_version stringclasses 1
value | season stringclasses 2
values | band_low float64 0.5 0.8 | band_high float64 0.6 1 | games int64 294 361 | clutch_said_avg float64 0.55 0.86 | happened_rate float64 0.51 0.87 | happened_games int64 182 272 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
clutch-20260929 | 2024-25 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 321 | 0.5521 | 0.6044 | 194 |
clutch-20260929 | 2024-25 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 361 | 0.6516 | 0.6343 | 229 |
clutch-20260929 | 2024-25 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 321 | 0.7441 | 0.7009 | 225 |
clutch-20260929 | 2024-25 | 0.8 | 1 | 312 | 0.8588 | 0.8718 | 272 |
clutch-20260929 | 2025-26 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 356 | 0.5529 | 0.5112 | 182 |
clutch-20260929 | 2025-26 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 357 | 0.6503 | 0.6611 | 236 |
clutch-20260929 | 2025-26 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 294 | 0.7485 | 0.7449 | 219 |
clutch-20260929 | 2025-26 | 0.8 | 1 | 309 | 0.8615 | 0.8544 | 264 |
Clutch NBA win probabilities, sealed before tip
Every NBA game gets one win probability from Clutch. Before tip-off the number is sealed with a SHA-256 fingerprint in a public GitHub repository. After the final it is graded, and misses count the same as hits. This dataset is that record, one row per game, plus the calibration of a two-season replay.
The live, always-current version is the Ledger: https://clutchledger.com/ledger/ and https://clutchledger.com/accuracy/.
Files
clutch_sealed_predictions.csv: one row per game, 2026-27 season
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
season |
NBA season, e.g. 2026-27 |
game_date_et |
Game date in US Eastern time |
tip_utc |
Scheduled tip-off, UTC |
home, away |
Team abbreviations |
clutch_home_win_prob |
Clutch's sealed probability that the home team wins (0–1) |
clutch_called_winner |
The side Clutch's number favoured |
home_score, away_score |
Final score |
graded |
True for regular-season games, which the Ledger counts. Preseason games were sealed too but are not counted |
called_right |
For graded games: did the favoured side win |
reveal_file |
The file in the receipts repository that opened the seal after the game |
reveal_sha256 |
That file's fingerprint, chained to the seal written before tip |
backtest_calibration.csv: two-season replay, 2,631 games
Each game of 2024-25 and 2025-26 predicted only from the games before it (walk-forward), then grouped by how
strongly Clutch favoured a side. clutch_said_avg is the average number Clutch gave in the band and
happened_rate is how often that side won. This is a replay, not the live record.
Check a seal yourself
VERIFY.md shows how to recompute a fingerprint and confirm a number existed before tip. A walk-through is at https://clutchledger.com/learn/check-a-prediction-came-first/.
Notes
- Small so far: the season started on October 20, 2026. The dataset is refreshed as the season goes on.
- Only Clutch's own numbers are included. ESPN BPI and market figures shown on clutchledger.com belong to their sources and are not part of this dataset.
- Win probabilities are for analysis and fan interest only.
Licence and credit
CC BY 4.0. Reuse freely, including commercially; credit "Clutch" and link to https://clutchledger.com.
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