# EDGAR Filing Document

**Accession Number:** 0000836136
**File Stem:** 0001104659-25-090327
**Filing Date:** 2025-9
**Character Count:** 335422
**Document Hash:** 89dfe36c57691078d376c5b346d95b4e
**Contains OCR:** False
**Source Format:** 

## Filing Content

## Filing Summary
**0001104659-25-090327.hdr.sgml**: 20250916

**ACCESSION NUMBER**: 0001104659-25-090327

**CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE**: 18-K/A

**PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT**: 31

**CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT**: 20250915

**FILED AS OF DATE**: 20250916

**DATE AS OF CHANGE**: 20250916

**FILER**: 

**COMPANY DATA:**
- **COMPANY CONFORMED NAME:** PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
- **CENTRAL INDEX KEY:** 0000836136
- **STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION:** FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS [8888]
- **ORGANIZATION NAME:** International Corp Fin
- **EIN:** 000000000
- **FISCAL YEAR END:** 0331

**FILING VALUES:**
- **FORM TYPE:** 18-K/A
- **SEC ACT:** 1934 Act
- **SEC FILE NUMBER:** 333-82846
- **FILM NUMBER:** 251316494

**BUSINESS ADDRESS:**
- **STREET 1:** MINISTRY OF FINANCE
- **STREET 2:** 620 SUPERIOR STREET
- **CITY:** VICTORIA
- **STATE:** A1
- **ZIP:** V8V 1X4
- **BUSINESS PHONE:** (778) 698 5906

**MAIL ADDRESS:**
- **STREET 1:** PO BOX 9423 STN PROV GOVT
- **STREET 2:** C/O PROVINCIAL TREASURY, DEBT MANAGEMENT
- **CITY:** VICTORIA
- **STATE:** A1
- **ZIP:** V8W 9V1

**FORM 18-K/A**

For Foreign Governments and Political Subdivisions Thereof

**UNITED STATES**

**SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION**

**Washington** **, D.C. 20549**

**AMENDMENT NO. 9 TO**

**ANNUAL REPORT**

**of**

**PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA**

**(Canada)**

**(Name of Registrant)**

Date of end of fiscal year to which the Annual Report relates: March 31, 2024

SECURITIES REGISTERED\*

(As of the close of the fiscal year)

---

| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
| Title of Issue | Amounts as to Which | Names of Exchanges |
| | Registration is Effective | on Which Registered |
| **N/A** | N/A | N/A |

---

***Names and addresses of persons authorized to receive notices and***

***communications from the Securities and Exchange Commission:***

Tom Clark

Consul General of Canada

466 Lexington Avenue, 20<sup>th</sup> Floor

New York, New York 10017

*Copies to*

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| &nbsp;&nbsp;Jason R. Lehner | &nbsp;&nbsp;Ministry of Finance |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;A&O Shearman | &nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial Treasury |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;Commerce Court West | &nbsp;&nbsp;Debt Management Branch |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;199 Bay Street | &nbsp;&nbsp;620 Superior Street |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;Suite 4405 | &nbsp;&nbsp;P.O. Box 9423, Stn Prov Govt |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;Toronto, Ontario | &nbsp;&nbsp;Victoria, British Columbia |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;M5L 1E8 | &nbsp;&nbsp;V8W 9V1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;(416) 360-2974 | &nbsp;&nbsp;(778) 698-5908 |

---

\*The Registrant is filing this amendment to its annual report on a voluntary basis.

**PROVINCE** **OF BRITISH COLUMBIA**

The undersigned registrant hereby amends the following items, financial statements, exhibits or other portions of its Annual Report (the "Annual Report") for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024 on Form 18-K as set forth below:

The following additional exhibit is added to the Annual Report:

[Exhibit 99.15](tm2526152d1_ex99-15.htm) [First Quarterly Report, September 2025, Fiscal Plan Update 2025/26 – 2027/28, 2025/26 Economic Outlook and Financial Forecast & Three Month Results April – June 2025](tm2526152d1_ex99-15.htm)

**SIGNATURE**

Pursuant to the requirements of the *Securities Exchange Act of 1934*, the registrant has duly caused this amendment to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized, at Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, on the 16<sup>th</sup> day of September, 2025.

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA | PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA |
| (Name of registrant) | (Name of registrant) |
| By: | /s/ Jason Lewis |
| Name: | Jason Lewis |
| Title: | Director, Capital Markets |
|  | Debt Management Branch |
|  | Provincial Treasury |
|  | Ministry of Finance |

---

**EXHIBIT INDEX**

[Exhibit 99.15](tm2526152d1_ex99-15.htm) [First Quarterly Report, September 2025, Fiscal Plan Update 2025/26 – 2027/28, 2025/26 Economic Outlook and Financial Forecast & Three Month Results April – June 2025](tm2526152d1_ex99-15.htm)

## Exhibit 99.15

**Exhibit 99.15**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15front001.jpg)

**This page intentionally left blank**

First Quarterly Report

Fiscal Plan Update

2025/26 – 2027/28

2025/26 Economic Outlook and

Financial Forecast

&

Three Month Results

April - June 2025

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15spimg001.jpg)

**British Columbia Cataloguing in Publication Data**

British Columbia. Ministry of Finance.

Quarterly report on the economy, fiscal situation and Crown corporations. — ongoing–

Quarterly.

Title on cover: Quarterly report.

Continues: British Columbia. Ministry of Finance.

Quarterly financial report. ISSN 0833-1375.

ISSN 1192-2176 — Quarterly Report on the economy, fiscal situation and Crown corporations.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1. Finance, Public — British Columbia — Accounting — Periodicals.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2. British Columbia — Economic conditions — 1945– — Periodicals.\*

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3. Corporations, Government — British Columbia — Accounting — Periodicals. I. Title.

HJ13.B77 354.711'007231'05

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| **2025/26 First Quarterly Report** **<br> September 15, 2025** | **TABLE OF CONTENTS** |

---

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| **Updated Fiscal Plan 2025/26 to 2027/28** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tables: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Updated Fiscal Plan 2025/26 to 2027/28 | 1 |
| **Part One — Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Introduction | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Revenue | 7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expense | 10 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF) Spending | 11 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Service Delivery Agency Spending | 12 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Full-Time Equivalents for the BC Public Service | 12 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial Capital Spending | 15 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Projects Over $50 million | 15 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial Debt | 19 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Risks to the Fiscal Forecast | 22 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Supplementary Schedules | 23 |

---

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tables: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.1 Forecast Update | 5.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.2 Financial Forecast Changes | 6.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.3 Comparison of Major Factors Underlying Revenue | 8.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.4 Capital Spending Update | 15.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.5 Provincial Debt Update | 20.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.6 Operating Statement | 23.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.7 Revenue by Source | 24.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.8 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency | 25.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.9 Expense by Function | 26.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.10 Capital Spending | 27.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.11 Projects Over $50 million | 28.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.12 Provincial Debt | 34.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.13 Statement of Financial Position | 35.0 |
| Topic Box |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expenditure Management and Efficiency Review Update | 13.0 |

---

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| i

**Table of Contents**

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| **Part Two — Economic Review and Outlook** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Summary | 37.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;British Columbia Economic Activity and Outlook | 38.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;U.S. Tariff Assumptions | 39.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Labour Market | 40.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Demographics | 42.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consumer Spending and Inflation | 43.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Housing | 45.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Business and Government | 48.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;External Trade and Commodity Markets | 49.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Risks to the Economic Outlook | 51.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;External Outlook | 52.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada | 52.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;United States | 55.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Asia | 58.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Europe | 59.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Financial Markets | 60.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interest Rates | 60.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Exchange Rates | 61.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tables: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.1 British Columbia Economic Indicators | 38.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.2 Canadian Real GDP Forecast: Consensus vs B.C. Ministry of Finance | 54.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.3 U.S. Real GDP Forecast: Consensus vs B.C. Ministry of Finance | 57.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.4 Private Sector Canadian Interest Rate Forecasts | 61.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.5 Private Sector Exchange Rate Forecasts | 62.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.6.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): British Columbia | 63.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.6.2 Selected Nominal Income and Other Indicators: British Columbia | 64.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.6.3 Labour Market Indicators: British Columbia | 64.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.6.4 Major Economic Assumptions | 65.0 |

---

ii \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26

**Table of Contents**

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| **Appendix — Fiscal Plan Update** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tables: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue | 67.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A2 Natural Gas Price Forecasts – 2025/26 to 2027/28 | 74.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A3 Material Assumptions – Expense | 76.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A4 Operating Statement – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 79.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A5 Revenue by Source – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 80.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A6 Revenue by Source Supplementary Information – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 81.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A7 Expense by Function – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 82.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A8 Expense by Function Supplementary Information – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 83.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A9 Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 84.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A10 Capital Spending – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 85.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A11 Statement of Financial Position – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 86.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A12 Changes in Financial Position – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 87.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A13 Provincial Debt – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 88.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A14 Provincial Debt Supplementary Information – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 89.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A15 Key Provincial Debt Indicators – 2018/19 to 2027/28 | 90.0 |

---

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| iii

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**UPDATED FISCAL PLAN – 2025/26 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| ($ millions) | **2025/26** | **2026/27** | **2027/28** |
| **Deficit - *Budget 2025*** | **(10912)** | **(10203)** | **(9863)** |
| **Fiscal Plan Updates:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Personal income tax revenue | (65) | (103) | (132) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Corporate income tax revenue | 411 | 731 | 638 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sales tax revenue | (174) | (194) | (187) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carbon tax revenue | (2821) | (3147) | (3413) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Employer health tax revenue | (29) | (76) | (79) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property transfer tax revenue | (247) | (160) | (134) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other taxation revenue | 83 | 151 | 188 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties revenue | (60) | (95) | (27) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Forest revenue | (51) | (102) | (107) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other natural resources revenue | (114) | (95) | (35) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contributions from the federal government | (357) | 293 | 433 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other revenue | (40) | (70) | (121) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fire management costs | (613) |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Refundable tax credits | 740 | 1025 | 1025 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tobacco settlement | 2725 |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other spending changes | 87 | (240) | (30) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt servicing costs | (140) | (360) | (429) |
| **Deficit - *First Quarterly Report*** | **(11577)** | **(12645)** | **(12273)** |
| **Contingencies Vote** | **4000** | **4000** | **4000** |
| **Capital Spending Levels:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported capital spending | 14664 | 15484 | 14652 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported capital spending | 4818 | 4628 | 4593 |
|  | **19482** | **20112** | **19245** |
| **Provincial Debt:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported debt | 117992 | 145974 | 171123 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported debt | 37381 | 39762 | 41786 |
|  | **155373** | **185736** | **212909** |
| **Taxpayer-supported Debt Metrics:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt-to-GDP ratio | 26.6% | 31.6% | 35.5% |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interest bite (cents per dollar of revenue) | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 |

---

**Financial Outlook**

The *First Quarterly Report* is being released in a time of continuing global trade uncertainty and the associated impacts on the provincial economy.

The deficit is projected to increase from *Budget 2025* largely due to the impacts from the elimination of the consumer carbon tax. This impact is partially offset by an increase in corporate income tax revenues across the fiscal plan period as well as the one-time improvement from B.C.'s share of the Canada-wide tobacco settlement in 2025/26.

As a result, combined with other changes discussed in the report, the forecast deficit is $11.6 billion in 2025/26, $12.6 billion in 2026/27 and $12.3 billion in 2027/28.

Revenue forecasts are lower by $739 million in 2025/26, $2.9 billion in 2026/27 and $3.0 billion in 2027/28. This is largely due to the removal of the consumer carbon tax and is partially offset by the one-time net revenue from the tobacco settlement. Excluding the impacts of the consumer carbon tax and tobacco settlement, there is a modest increase to the revenue outlook over the three-year period compared to *Budget 2025.* Over the plan period, lower revenues from personal income tax, sales and property transfer taxes, natural resource sector mainly due to lower commodity prices and delayed federal recoveries for climate-related disasters are more than offset by a higher outlook of revenues from corporate income tax, other taxes and new federal contributions in the health sector. Overall, the relative stability of revenue sources points to B.C.'s continuing economic resilience in the face of ongoing tariff-related uncertainty.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 1 <br>

Updated Fiscal Plan – 2025/26 to 2027/28

Compared to budget, expense projections are lower across the fiscal plan period mainly due to the cessation of the climate action tax credit and lower spending forecasts by other government entities. These spending reductions are partially offset by higher wildfire spending forecast in 2025/26, increased debt interest costs due to the borrowing impact of the higher deficits, and higher spending funded by new federal health contributions noted above.

Government is on track to achieve its expenditure management target of $1.5 billion over the fiscal plan period, as outlined in *Budget 2025*. Government continues work on program efficiency reviews in advance of *Budget 2026.* Additional information can be found starting on page 13.

**Economic Outlook**

The *First Quarterly Report* forecast for B.C.'s economy is lower than *Budget 2025* expectations, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs as well as a slowdown in the housing market. B.C. real GDP growth in 2025 has been revised down to 1.5 per cent from 1.8 per cent, and the forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 1.3 per cent from 1.9 per cent.

Despite the lower outlook, B.C.'s economic performance has been resilient. Strong year-to-date retail sales, steady employment gains, and an easing interest rate environment have supported B.C.'s economy, although U.S. trade policy continues to create uncertainty that is dampening GDP growth. Meanwhile, international migration to B.C. has slowed following implementation of the federal government's *2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan*. While tariffs are expected to put upward pressure on inflation across Canada, those effects are partly offset by the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Exports have been volatile, in influenced by developments in global demand in response to U.S. tariffs. However, B.C.'s diverse economy and greater access to non-U.S. markets will help mitigate impacts stemming from the ongoing trade conflict.

**British Columbia's Real GDP Outlook**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp1img04.jpg)

Despite challenges in the near term, B.C.'s economy is expected to see solid growth from 2027 to 2029, with average annual real GDP growth of 2.1 per cent, similar to the *Budget 2025* forecast.

**Capital Investments**

Taxpayer-supported capital spending on hospitals, education facilities, transportation infrastructure, housing and other projects is financed through a combination of provincial borrowing, funding provided by third parties, and from internal cash flows. Taxpayer-supported capital spending is forecast to total $44.8 billion over the fiscal plan period, which is $1.1 billion lower than the *Budget 2025* forecast mainly due to changes in the timing of capital projects.

Over the three years, self-supported infrastructure spending by commercial Crown corporations totals $14.0 billion.

2 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated Fiscal Plan – 2025/26 to 2027/28

**Debt Affordability**

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to be lower than budget at the end of 2025/26 due to reduced borrowing requirements for taxpayer-supported entities such as BC Transportation Financing Authority and BC Housing. Taxpayer-supported debt is projected to reach $171.1 billion by 2027/28, which is $4.6 billion higher than planned, mainly due to higher deficits over the plan period.

**Taxpayer-Supported Debt-to-GDP**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp2img01.jpg)

Government's key debt affordability metric, the taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio, is forecast to be lower in 2025/26 than forecast in *Budget 2025* but is projected to be higher than budget in the last two years of the fiscal plan, reaching 35.5 per cent by 2027/28. Despite this, B.C. continues to have one of the lowest debt affordability metrics relative to other Canadian provinces.

Including the self-supported debt of commercial Crown corporations, total provincial debt is projected at $212.9 billion by the end of 2027/28.

**Risks to the Fiscal Plan**

The main risks to the government's fiscal plan outlook include:

· Challenges
 surrounding disruptive global trade policies, particularly from U.S. tariffs and related
 uncertainty;

· Ongoing
 uncertainty regarding immigration levels and population growth;

· The degree
 to which persistent price pressures and monetary policy affect economic activity, inflation,
 government revenues, program costs, interest rates and borrowing costs;

· Assumptions
 underlying projections for revenue and for Crown corporation net income such as economic
 factors and commodity prices;

· Increased
 spending which may include climate-related events and increased demand and costs for government
 services such as health care and social programs;

· Potential
 changes to transfer allocations and cost-sharing agreements with the federal government,
 and impacts on the provincial income tax bases arising from federal tax policy changes; and

· Changes
 in the timing of capital projects and related spending, which may be influenced by several
 factors, such as market conditions, supply chain challenges and weather.

To mitigate against unexpected and unknown operating costs, the Contingencies Vote includes budget allocations of $4.0 billion in each year of the fiscal plan. This includes funding to address caseload pressures, cost increases related to a new collective bargaining mandate and emerging priorities. There are no changes to the Contingencies Vote forecast compared to *Budget 2025* at this time.

**Conclusion**

B.C.'s fiscal forecast shows a higher deficit from budget across the fiscal plan period. This is mainly due to the impacts from the elimination of the consumer carbon tax. The impact in 2025/26 is partially mitigated with the expected one-time gain from the Canada-wide tobacco settlement. The province's economy continues to be resilient, and taxpayer-supported debt remains affordable compared to its peers.

Government continues to make targeted investments outlined in *Budget 2025*, to strengthen the economy, reduce costs for families and make our neighbourhoods and communities safer.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 3 <br>

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**PART 1 \| UPDATED 2025/26 FINANCIAL FORECAST**

**Introduction**

**Table 1.1 2025/26 Forecast Update**

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | First | |
|  | *Budget* | Quarterly |  |
| ($ millions) | 2025 | Report | Change |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Revenue | 84003 | 83264 | (739) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expense | (94915) | (94841) | 74 |
| **Deficit** | **(10912)** | **(11577)** | **(665)** |
| **Capital Spending:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported capital spending | 15374 | 14664 | (710) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported capital spending | 4828 | 4818 | (10) |
|  | **20202** | **19482** | **(720)** |
| **Provincial Debt:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported debt | 118719 | 117992 | (727) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported debt | 37913 | 37381 | (532) |
|  | **156632** | **155373** | **(1259)** |
| **Taxpayer-supported Debt Metrics:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt-to-GDP ratio | 26.7% | 26.6% | -0.1% |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interest bite (cents per dollar of revenue) | 4.9 | 5.0 | 0.1 |

---

The first quarter update for 2025/26 is projecting a deficit of $11.6 billion, an increase of $665 million from the budget deficit forecast of $10.9 billion. The revenue forecast is lower mainly due to the elimination of the consumer carbon tax and decreases in various revenue sources including property transfer tax, sales tax, natural resources and federal government contributions. This is partially offset by an increase in corporate income tax revenues and the one-time improvement from B.C.'s share of the Canada-wide tobacco settlement. The expense forecast is lower mainly due to lower refundable tax credits partially offset by higher spending for wildfire response and higher interest costs.

Details of the revenue and expense forecast changes from *Budget 2025* are shown in Chart 1.1 and Table 1.2.

**Chart 1.1 2025/26 Deficit – Major Changes from *Budget 2025***

 ****

*\*Includes consumer carbon tax and output-based pricing system*

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 5 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Table 1.2 2025/26 Financial Forecast Changes**

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
|  | ($ millions) |
| **2025/26 deficit at *Budget 2025* (March 4, 2025)** | **(10912)** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Revenue**<sup>1</sup> **changes:** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Personal income tax – reflecting lower household income and employee compensation growth | (65) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Corporate income tax – higher prior-year settlement payment, and increase in advance instalments mainly reflecting preliminary 2024 tax assessment information | 411 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial sales tax – mainly weaker year-to-date tax revenue | (174) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property transfer tax – reflecting lower than expected year-to-date sales results | (247) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carbon tax – mainly the elimination of consumer carbon tax effective April 1, 2025 | (2821) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fuel tax – higher sales volume in most fuel types reflecting prior year and year-to-date results | 64 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Employer health tax – reflecting impacts of 2024/25 results and a lower wages and salaries growth | (29) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other taxation sources – higher property and insurance premium tax revenue partially offset by lower tobacco tax revenue, mainly reflecting the impacts of 2024/25 results | 19 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties – lower prices and natural gas liquids royalties, partly offset by higher volumes, and decreased utilization of royalty and infrastructure programs and credits | (60) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mining – lower coal and copper prices as well as lower coal production | (145) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Electricity sales under the Columbia River Treaty – improved Mid-C electricity prices | 17 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Forests – mainly lower stumpage rates and Crown harvest volumes | (68) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other natural resources – mainly higher bonus bids cash sales and petroleum royalties | 31 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fees, licences, investment earnings and miscellaneous revenue: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment earnings – mainly lower interest recoveries relating to the Fiscal Agency Loan program | (7) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tobacco settlement - estimated net revenue | 2725 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other sources – mainly lower revenue from fees and other miscellaneous sources | (13) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada health and social transfers – mainly higher B.C. share of the national population | 9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other federal government transfers – mainly delayed funding in support of Disaster Financial Arrangements and delayed recoveries relating to public transit | (366) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporation net income - mainly Liquor Distribution Branch | (20) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total revenue changes** | **(739)** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;***Less* :** expense<sup>1</sup> increases (decreases)***:*** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consolidated Revenue Fund changes: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Statutory spending: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fire management costs | 613 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other statutory spending | 19 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Refundable tax credits - elimination of the climate action tax credit | (740) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other expense changes – mainly higher interest costs | 141 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Spending funded by third party recoveries | (80) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes in spending profile of service delivery agencies: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School districts | 46 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Universities | (144) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Colleges and institutes | (18) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health authorities and hospital societies | 139 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other service delivery agencies<sup>2</sup> | (3) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(Increase) decrease in transfers to service delivery agencies - accounting elimination | (47) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total expense changes** | **(74)** |
| **Total changes** | **(665)** |
| **2025/26 deficit at the *First Quarterly Report*** | **(11577)** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Detailed descriptions of changes are provided in the revenue and expense sections of this report.

<sup>2</sup> Includes BC Transportation Financing Authority, BC Transit, BC Housing Management Commission, Community Living BC, and other entities.

6 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

Projected taxpayer-supported capital spending in 2025/26 is $14.7 billion, which is $710 million lower than forecast in Budget 2025, due to timing changes for projects in the health and transportation sectors. The self-supported capital spending forecast is $4.8 billion, which is $10 million lower than budget mainly due to timing of ICBC expenditures.

The taxpayer-supported debt at the end of 2025/26 is forecast at $118.0 billion, which is $727 million lower than the Budget 2025 forecast mainly due to lower capital spending partially offset by a higher debt balance at the end of 2024/25 and higher operating deficit for the current fiscal year. Self-supported debt is forecast to be $37.4 billion, a decrease of $532 million since Budget 2025 mainly due to a lower debt balance at the end of 2024/25.

**Revenue**

Revenue for 2025/26 is forecast to be $83.3 billion — $739 million lower than the projection in Budget 2025. Lower revenue from taxation, natural resources, federal government contributions and net income from commercial Crowns is partly offset by higher revenue from miscellaneous sources. The decrease to the taxation revenue forecast is mainly due to the elimination of consumer carbon tax effective April 1, 2025, the effects of the First Quarterly Report economic update, the impacts of the final 2024/25 revenue results that carry forward and year-to-date activity in 2025/26. Lower natural resource revenue forecast is mainly due to the impacts of lower commodity prices. The revenue forecast also includes the one-time net revenue related to the tobacco settlement.

**Chart 1.2 Revenue Changes from *Budget 2025***

**Total revenue decreases by $739 million**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp2img04.jpg)

Detailed revenue projections are disclosed in Table 1.7, and key assumptions and sensitivities relating to revenue are provided in Table A1. For 2025/26, major changes from the *Budget 2025* forecast are discussed starting on page 8.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 7 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Table 1.3 Comparison of Major Factors Underlying Revenue**

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| Calendar Year | First Quarterly Report | First Quarterly Report | First Quarterly Report | First Quarterly Report | *Budget 2025* | *Budget 2025* | *Budget 2025* | *Budget 2025* |
| Per cent growth unless otherwise indicated | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Real GDP | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Nominal GDP | 4.1 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Household income | 6.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 4 | 4.2 |
| Wages and salaries | 6.3 | 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Corporations net operating surplus | -15.1 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | -17.3 | -1.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Employment | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Consumer expenditures on durable goods | 0.9 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Consumer expenditures on goods and services | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Business investment | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| Residential investment | 1.4 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6 |
| Retail sales | 0.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Residential sales value | 3.1 | -4.9 | 16 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 15.9 | 6.7 | 5.1 |
| B.C. Housing starts | -9.2 | -5.8 | 0.9 | 7.1 | -9.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| U.S. Housing starts | -3.7 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | -3.9 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 0 |
| SPF 2x4 price ($US/thousand board feet) | $412 | $482 | $485 | $490 | $412 | $440 | $445 | $450 |
| Exchange rate (US cents/Canadian dollar) | 73 | 72.1 | 74.9 | 76.1 | 73 | 70 | 71.8 | 74.5 |

---

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| Fiscal Year | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 |
| Natural gas price ($Cdn/GJ at plant inlet) | $0.74 | $1.21 | $1.95 | $1.99 | $0.61 | $1.30 | $1.69 | $1.75 |
| Bonus bid average bid price per hectare ($) | $359 | $3300 | $200 | $200 | $250 | $200 | $300 | $300 |
| Electricity price ($US/mega-watt hour, Mid-C) | $61 | $77 | $81 | $72 | $61 | $69 | $71 | $67 |
| Metallurgical coal price ($US/tonne, fob Australia) | $247 | $197 | $208 | $206 | $248 | $218 | $215 | $214 |
| Copper price ($US/lb) | $4.25 | $4.27 | $4.41 | $4.60 | $4.25 | $4.32 | $4.39 | $4.65 |
| Average stumpage rates ($Cdn/cubic metre) | $14.78 | $16.53 | $15.54 | $16.15 | $15.03 | $18.20 | $19.21 | $19.54 |
| Crown harvest volumes (million cubic metres) | 32.2 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 |

---

**Income Tax Revenue**

Personal income tax revenue is down $65 million from budget mainly due to lower growth in household income and employee compensation.

Corporate income tax revenue is up $411 million due to higher advance instalments of $136 million from the federal government and an increase in prior-year settlement payments of $275 million, mainly reflecting preliminary 2024 tax assessment results. The increase in instalments reflects an updated federal government forecast for 2025 national corporate taxable income.

**Other Tax Revenue**

The *First Quarterly Report* reflects the elimination of the consumer carbon tax effective April 1, 2025. The revenue reduction of $2,821 million is mainly due to the removal of the consumer carbon tax ($2,760 million), and $61 million lower revenue forecast from large emitters under the output-based pricing system.

Property transfer tax revenue is down $247 million from budget mainly due to lower year-to-date sales activity in the housing market.

Provincial sales tax revenue is down $174 million mainly due to lower year-to-date number of tax returns and the impacts of weaker final 2024/25 results.

Fuel tax revenues are up $64 million from budget due to the impacts of 2024/25 results and increased year-to-date sales volumes in gasoline, diesel and most fuel types, reflecting a return to historical volume growth rates.

8 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

Employer health tax revenues are down $29 million due to the impacts of 2024/25 results and a lower payroll base compared to budget, consistent with weaker growth in wages and salaries.

Other taxation revenues are up $19 million due to higher revenue from property and insurance premium taxes reflecting the impacts of 2024/25 results.

**Natural Resources Revenue**

Natural resource revenues are $225 million lower than budget with declines in most sources.

Revenue from natural gas royalties is down $60 million mainly due to lower prices and natural gas liquids royalties. These declines are partially offset by slightly higher natural gas production volumes as well as decreased utilization of royalty and infrastructure program credits. The updated natural gas price forecast is $1.21 ($Cdn/gigajoule, plant inlet), down from the *Budget 2025* forecast of $1.30. The price assumption continues to be prudent by being within the 20<sup>th</sup> percentile of the private sector forecasters. Natural gas royalty rates are sensitive to prices in the $1.22 to $2.42 range. Hence, the effective royalty rate is generally expected to fall as prices decrease, depending on the take up of royalty program credits.

Revenue from coal, metals, minerals and other mining related sources is down $145 million mainly due to weaker coal and copper prices as well as lower coal production. The metallurgical coal price, now forecast to be $197 ($US/tonne, fob Australia), is down 10 per cent from the budget forecast. The decline in price reflects global oversupply and reduced industrial demand in China and Europe.

Revenue from electricity sales under the Columbia River Treaty is up $17 million mainly due to higher Mid-Columbia electricity prices reflecting periods of warmer-than-usual weather and drought, creating an increase in power demand. The Mid-Columbia electricity price, now forecast to be $76.70 US/mega-watt hour, is up 11 per cent from the budget forecast.

Forest revenue is down $68 million mainly due to lower stumpage revenue reflecting rising costs within the forest industry and a decline in annual harvest volumes. Total stumpage rate, now forecast to be $16.53 Cdn/cubic metre, is down 9 per cent from the budget forecast.

Revenue from other natural resources is up $31 million mainly due to increased bonus bid cash sales and higher petroleum production volumes. The April 2025 disposition of petroleum and natural gas rights generated $31.5 million in total tender bonus bids.

**Other Taxpayer-Supported Revenue**

Other taxpayer-supported revenue consists of revenue from fees, licences, investment earnings and miscellaneous sources. These revenue sources are now expected to total $14.7 billion, up $2.7 billion from budget.

The updated forecast for fee revenues totals $5.3 billion, unchanged from budget.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 9 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

The revised forecast for investment earnings is $1.8 billion, down slightly by $7 million from budget mainly due to lower recoveries of interest costs related to the Fiscal Agency Loan program, which has an equal and offsetting lower expense.

The miscellaneous revenue outlook of $7.6 billion is up $2.7 billion from budget mainly due to an estimated one-time gain related to the tobacco settlement. The Province is a claimant in the Canada-wide legal action against three Canadian tobacco manufacturers to recover costs of treating tobacco-related diseases. In March 2025, the Ontario Superior Court of Justice approved the proposed Plans of Compromise and Arrangement subject to a set of conditions. Effective August 29, 2025, all outstanding conditions for the plan have been met and government has included an estimated net revenue of $2.7 billion. This estimate includes $3.7 billion as the Province's share of the arrangement, to be received over approximately 18 years. The net revenue also includes $130 million in legal costs and has been discounted to reflect the long-term nature of the payment schedule. These estimates will be updated throughout the fiscal year as more up-to-date information becomes available and confirmed at Public Accounts in summer 2026.

**Federal Government Transfers**

Federal government contributions are expected to be $14.9 billion, down $357 million from budget.

The forecast for Canada health and social transfers has increased by $9 million, mainly due to an improved B.C. share of the national population.

Other federal government contributions are down $366 million due to timing changes for Disaster Financial Arrangements funding and delayed recoveries related to public transit projects, mainly reflecting lower cost estimates and projects rescheduled to future years.

**Commercial Crown Net Income**

The total net income forecast reported by government business enterprises (commercial Crown corporations) is down $20 million mainly due to a lower forecast from the Liquor Distribution Branch.

**Expense**

The *First Quarterly Report* expense forecast for 2025/26 is $74 million lower than *Budget 2025* mainly due to lower spending for refundable tax credits and lower spending funded from external parties partially offset by higher spending for wildfire response and increased debt servicing costs.

10 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Chart 1.3 Expense Changes from *Budget 2025***

**Total expense decreases by $74 million**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp2img06.jpg)

***Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF) Spending***

Statutory spending is projected at $632 million in 2025/26 and includes the following:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· $613
 million for fire management costs — this is in addition to the $238 million in the
 Fire Management voted appropriation, for a total spending forecast of $851 million; and

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· $19
 million in other statutory spending.

Other changes in CRF spending include an increase of $140 million for debt servicing costs due to higher opening debt level, higher interest rates and accelerated timing of in-year borrowing, offset by a $740 million decrease in refundable tax credits mainly due to the elimination of the climate action tax credit.

**Contingencies**

*Budget 2025* includes a Contingencies Vote allocation of $4.0 billion in 2025/26. The Contingencies Vote helps fund unexpected costs that are difficult to forecast such as flood recovery, wage mandate, increased demands for government services, and emerging priorities. The forecast for these allocations remain unchanged in the *First Quarterly Report.*

**Spending Recovered from External Parties**

Expenses funded by external parties are forecast to decrease by $80 million mainly due to lower federal recoveries related to public transit projects, partly offset by an additional $17 million in health funding received from the federal government.

The recovered spending changes are offset by an equal change in revenue and as a result have no net impact on government's financial results.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 11 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Operating Transfers to Service Delivery Agencies**

Operating transfers to service delivery agencies are forecast to be $47 million higher than *Budget 2025* mainly due to a net increase in grants to the education sector ($34 million).

Operating transfers provided to service delivery agencies are eliminated on consolidation, for accounting purposes. These funding changes are related to spending forecast changes noted below.

***Service Delivery Agency Spending***

Service delivery agency expenses are forecast to increase by $20 million in 2025/26 compared to *Budget 2025*.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· School
 district expense forecasts are higher by $46 million mainly to reflect an increase in
 capital asset amortization expenses.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Post-secondary
 sector expenses are forecast to decrease by $162 million mainly due to lower salaries
 and benefits and operating costs.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· The
 health authorities and hospital societies expense forecast is $139 million higher than *Budget 2025* due to higher operating costs.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Other
 service delivery agency spending is forecast to decrease by $3 million since budget
 mainly due to lower amortization and interest expenses by the BC Transportation Financing
 Authority to reflect a revised schedule for capital projects offset by various updates across
 a number of other agencies.

Changes in service delivery agency spending are related to changes in operating transfers provided from government as noted above.

Detailed expense projections are disclosed in Table 1.8. Key spending assumptions and sensitivities are provided in the appendix Table A3.

**Full-Time Equivalents for the BC Public Service**

The forecast of full-time equivalent (FTE) staff utilization for 2025/26 remain unchanged from budget at 38,900 FTEs.

12 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Expenditure Management and Efficiency Review Update**

*Budget 2025* included first steps and commitments to set the Province on a path to balance and ensure sustainability of public services and programs. This included initial expenditure management targets totaling $1.5 billion across the fiscal plan to be achieved through the management of administrative and discretionary spending, while still protecting critical front-line services people rely on.

Consistent with the tabling of *Budget 2025* in March 2025, all ministries received spending directives to minimize discretionary spending and to put internal ministry spending controls in place. As part of *Budget 2025*, the Ministry of Finance is leading a review of administrative and discretionary spending across government. Implementation of initial saving measures are underway, while government continues to actively identify further expenditure management initiatives and opportunities over multiple years.

***Administrative and Operating Savings***

Government is on track to achieve its $1.5 billion in administrative and operating savings over the three-year fiscal plan. Initial expenditure management measures are expected to exceed $300 million in forecast savings in 2025/26 including salaries, travel, contracts, discretionary grants and government transfers which represent administrative savings across the broader public sector. These measures will continue to lead to savings in future years, with updates to be provided through regular financial reporting. As part of the expenditure management process, government will also undertake a grant review with the intent of finding more saving opportunities and ensure funding is focused on critical front-line services. Permanent spending adjustments will be reflected in future budgets.

***Program Reviews***

In addition to initial expenditure management targets, government has initiated program reviews to optimize resources and ensure programs remain relevant, efficient and sustainable. The review includes identifying opportunities to improve service delivery outcomes, grow the economy, and help keep costs low for British Columbians. Program reviews are a multi-year initiative, and will also consider opportunities to amalgamate or consolidate programs. Any changes to programs and/or budgets will be reflected in future budgets.

In addition, several other expenditure management initiatives are underway including space consolidation, the BC Public Service hiring restrictions, and Health Authority reviews. These initiatives are anticipated to result in further future year savings that are not yet built into the forecast.

***Space Consolidation***

Government is implementing a phased, geographic strategy to reduce its office space footprint across the Province. This approach focuses on optimizing the real estate portfolio in alignment with broader financial priorities, environmental sustainability, and social stewardship.

The initiative will be rolled out incrementally. The first phase begins in the Capital Region, where consolidations are already underway. Operational savings are anticipated by reducing energy consumption, maintenance, and cleaning costs. The reduction in office footprint in this region is expected to yield annual savings. Some of these savings are anticipated to offset operating costs of future space consolidation phases.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 13 <br>

Economic Review And Outlook

Further savings will be realized throughout the rest of the Province from additional office space optimization that is currently in the planning stage.

***Hiring Restrictions***

Government initiated restrictions on external hiring in core BC Public Service roles in December 2024, which was expanded to include internal hiring in February 2025. Hiring is restricted to positions that are clearly essential to delivering core government programs and services, and subject to approval by the Head of the Public Service. The restrictions are intended as a proactive measure to manage resources during a constrained fiscal period, while ensuring government can continue to deliver core programs and services. The restriction also includes an exemption for government Indigenous internship, workable and co-op programs which support equity, diversity, and inclusion in the BC Public Service.

The forecast for full-time equivalent (FTE) staff utilization for government ministries remains unchanged from *Budget 2025*, with an average 38,900 FTEs anticipated over the fiscal year while meeting an increased demand for essential services. The forecast includes seasonal increases in hiring to support wildfire services and BC Parks over the summer, while some areas of government may see increased FTEs to address growing demand for services (e.g. justice, child and family services). This growth is expected to be offset by declining FTE numbers in other areas, leading to an overall flatlining over the year.

In alignment with the current hiring restriction, government is committed to mobilizing internal talent across the BC Public Service to meet service needs and focus on critical work. This includes reviewing the workforce to assess and streamline for efficiency and optimization, while ensuring the ongoing health and well-being of the public service over the long-term. While not directly related to the hiring restriction, government organizational changes announced on July 17, 2025 further contribute to these objectives and are intended to respond to B.C.'s evolving needs to grow the economy, seize investment opportunities and strengthen public services.

***Health Authority Review***

Government is reviewing health authorities to ensure resource allocations are supporting critical patient services and minimize unnecessary administrative spending. The review aims to find efficiencies and cost savings by examining four main areas: consolidating administrative and corporate functions through a shared services model, optimizing existing shared services, such as procurement and IT services, reducing duplicative processes identified through the review, and improving and streamlining governance structures.

Interim expenditure management measures are in place to control administrative costs while the review is underway. The health authority review aims to further lower B.C.'s corporate services expense ratio, because every 0.1 per cent reduction in administrative costs represents approximately $35 million more funding available for front-line patient care.

The Province anticipates that the health authority review, both for the Provincial Health Services Authority and the regional health authorities, will continue into the fall of 2025 and be complete in early 2026.

***Conclusion***

Government is taking a thoughtful and multi-faceted approach to reduce government spending and realign resources to optimize outcomes. The *First Quarterly Report* confirms that government is on track to achieve its expenditure management targets of $1.5 billion over three years with many other reviews underway to deliver further savings. *Budget 2026* will reflect additional results of program reviews to support government's fiscal objectives on a path to balance.

14 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Provincial Capital Spending**

Capital spending is projected to total $19.5 billion in 2025/26 — $720 million lower than the forecast in *Budget 2025* (see Tables 1.4 and 1.10).

**Table 1.4 2025/26 Capital Spending Update**

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
|  | ($ millions) |
| **Taxpayer-supported capital spending at *Budget 2025*** | **15374** |
| Changes: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Higher school district spending | 38 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timing of post-secondary institution spending | (47) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timing of health authority spending | (407) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timing of transportation sector spending | (278) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timing of social housing spending | (21) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other net adjustments to capital schedules | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total taxpayer-supported changes | (710) |
| **Taxpayer-supported capital spending - updated forecast** | **14664** |
| **Self-supported capital spending at *Budget 2025*** | **4828** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timing of ICBC spending | (8) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timing of other spending | (2) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total self-supported changes | (10) |
| **Self-supported capital spending - updated forecast** | **4818** |
| **2025/26 provincial capital spending at the *First Quarterly Report*** | **19482** |

---

Taxpayer-supported capital spending is projected at $14.7 billion. The $710 million decrease since *Budget 2025* is primarily due to timing changes in capital spending on health and transportation projects.

At $4.8 billion, self-supported capital spending is $10 million lower than *Budget 2025* primarily due to changes in the timing of ICBC expenditures.

***Projects Over $50 million***

Approved Major Capital Projects Table 1.11 shows major capital projects that have approved business plans. This table includes projects with capital expenditures over $50 million.

Since *Budget 2025*, the following projects have been added to the table:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Burtch
 Road Middle School ($101 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Clayton
 Heights Secondary ($90 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· North
 Langford Secondary ($219 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Richmond
 City Centre East Site ($61 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Kwantlen
 Polytechnic University – Student Housing and Dining ($143 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· University
 of Victoria – Student Housing Expansion ($178 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Fort
 St. John Long-Term Care ($155 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 1 Sackum Overhead Bridge Replacement ($93 million);

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 15 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 8 Corridor ($230 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Quesnel-Hydraulic
 Road Slide ($80 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Housing – Vancouver Parkside ($54 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – 2L143 - cable replacement project ($100 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Cheakamus recoat units 1 and 2 penstocks (interior and exterior) project ($53
 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Comox - Puntledge flow control improvements project ($53 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Distribution design modernization project ($54 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Kimberley to Marysville - substation relocation project ($73 million);

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Mica townsite apartment accommodation project ($67 million); and

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Mica - U1 - U4 circuit breaker and iso-phase bus replacement project ($176
 million).

Since *Budget 2025,* the Handsworth Secondary School project was completed and is no longer listed in the table.

Changes since *Budget 2025* for existing projects include:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Quesnel Junior School project's anticipated total cost decreased from $52 million to $49 million to reflect revised project
 cost. Internal borrowing decreased by $3 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Coast Salish Elementary project's anticipated total cost decreased from $43 million to $38 million to reflect revised project
 cost. Internal borrowing decreased from $38 million to $33 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· New
 East Side Elementary project's year of completion was amended from 2026 to 2027 to
 align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Simon
 Fraser University – Student Housing project's anticipated total cost decreased
 from $115 million to $114 million to reflect final project cost;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Okanagan College – Student Housing project's anticipated total cost decreased from $75 million to $73 million to reflect
 updated project cost. The year of completion was amended from 2025 to 2024 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· The University of British Columbia – Brock Commons Phase 2 Student Housing project's anticipated total cost increased
 from $162 million to $165 million to reflect final project cost;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Royal Roads University – West Shore Learning Centre project's internal borrowing increased from $80 million to $88
 million to offset a decrease in contributions from other sources;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Simon Fraser University – Digital Research Infrastructure Refresh – CEDAR project's anticipated total cost increased
 from $86 million to $88 million to reflect revised project cost. Increase is funded by contributions from other sources;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· The
 University of British Columbia – Recreation Centre North project's anticipated
 total cost increased from $68 million to $73 million to reflect revised project cost;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Simon
 Fraser University – Student Housing Phase 3 project's anticipated total cost
 increased from $188 million to $197 million to reflect revised project cost. Other contributions
 increased from $56 million to $65 million;

16 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Camosun
 College – Student Housing project's year of completion was amended from 2027
 to 2028 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Vancouver Community College – Centre for Clean Energy & Automotive Innovation project's year of completion was
 amended from 2027 to 2028 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Royal Columbian Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1 project's anticipated total cost decreased from $251 million to $246
 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing decreased from $242 million to $240 million and other contributions decreased
 from $9 million to $6 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Royal Columbian Hospital Redevelopment Phases 2 & 3 project's anticipated total cost increased from $1.244 billion to
 $1.249 billion to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $1.182 billion to $1.184 billion and other contributions
 increased from $62 million to $65 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Clinical and Systems Transformation project's anticipated total cost increased from $803 million to $844 million to reflect
 revised project cost. Other contributions increased from $101 million to $142 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· iHealth Project – Vancouver Island Health Authority project's anticipated total cost increased from $155 million to
 $165 million to reflect revised project cost. Other contributions increased from $100 million to $110 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Penticton Regional Hospital Patient Care Tower project's anticipated total cost decreased from $308 million to $297 million
 to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing decreased from $157 million to $153 million and other contributions decreased from
 $151 million to $144 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Lions
 Gate Hospital – New Acute Care Facility project's year of completion was amended
 from 2024 to 2025 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Stuart
 Lake Hospital Replacement project's year of completion was amended from 2024 to 2025
 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Surrey
 Memorial Hospital – Hemodialysis Renal Centre project's year of completion was
 amended from 2025 to 2026 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Mills Memorial Hospital Replacement project's internal borrowing decreased from $513 million to $510 million and other contributions
 increased from $120 million to $123 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Burnaby
 Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1 project's year of completion was amended from
 2026 to 2027 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Royal
 Inland Hospital Phil and Jennie Gaglardi Tower project's anticipated total cost increased
 from $457 million to $490 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased
 from $243 million to $276 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Abbotsford
 Long-Term Care project's year of completion was amended from 2027 to 2028 to align
 with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Delta
 Long-Term Care project's year of completion was amended from 2027 to 2028 to align
 with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Kamloops Cancer Centre project's anticipated total cost increased from $359 million to $386 million to reflect revised project
 cost. Internal borrowing increased from $314 million to $341 million;

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 17 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Nanaimo Cancer Centre project's anticipated total cost increased from $289 million to $329 million to reflect revised project
 cost. Internal borrowing increased from $289 million to $307 million and other contributions increased to $22 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· St. Vincent's Heather Long-Term Care project's anticipated total cost increased from $207 million to $309 million to
 reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $207 million to $309 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Dr. F.W. Green Memorial Home project's anticipated total cost increased from $156 million to $236 million to reflect revised
 project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $94 million to $143 million and other contributions increased from $62 million to $93
 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Vancouver General Hospital – Operating Rooms Renewal Phase 2 project's anticipated total cost increased from $332 million
 to $423 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $312 million to $396 million and other contributions
 increased from $20 million to $27 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 14 Corridor improvements project's anticipated total cost increased from $77 million
 to $78 million to reflect final project cost;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 1 Corridor – Falls Creek project's internal borrowing decreased from $72 million
 to $59 million to reflect federal contribution of $13 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 5 Corridor project's internal borrowing decreased from $119 million to $111 million
 to reflect federal contribution of $8 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 1 Corridor – Nicomen Bridge project's internal borrowing decreased from $89 million
 to $64 million to reflect federal contribution of $25 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Blackwater
 North Fraser Slide project's internal borrowing decreased from $197 million to $192
 million to reflect federal contribution of $5 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Cottonwood
 Hill at Highway 97 Slide project's internal borrowing decreased from $323 million to
 $313 million to reflect federal contribution of $10 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 1 Corridor – Tank Hill project's internal borrowing decreased from $273 million
 to $218 million to reflect federal contribution of $55 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 1 Salmon Arm West project's year of completion was amended from 2025 to 2026 to align
 with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Belleville Terminal Redevelopment project's anticipated total cost increased from $331 million to $416 million to reflect
 revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from $289 million to $371 million and federal contribution increased from $42 million
 to $45 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway 1 Fraser Valley Corridor Improvements – 264th St. to Mount Lehman Road project's anticipated total cost decreased
 from $2.340 billion to $2.250 billion to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing decreased by $90 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Highway
 1 216th St. to 264th St. widening project's anticipated total cost increased from $345
 million to $480 million to reflect revised project cost. Internal borrowing increased from
 $249 million to $383 million and federal contribution increased by $1 million to $97 million.
 Project's year of completion was amended from 2026 to 2029 to align with revised project
 schedule;

18 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· Crosstown project's anticipated total cost increased from $72 million to $75 million to reflect final project cost. Internal
 borrowing decreased from $61 million to $53 million and federal contribution increased by $11 million. Project's year of completion
 was amended from 2025 to 2024 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 1015
 Hastings St. E. Redevelopment project's internal borrowing decreased from $110 million
 to $95 million to reflect federal contribution of $15 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 296 Angela Drive project's internal borrowing increased from $142 million to $150 million, federal contribution decreased
 from $48 million to $42 million and other contributions decreased from $31 million to $29 million. Project's year of completion
 was amended from 2026 to 2027 to align with revised project schedule;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 926
 & 930 Pandora Ave project's anticipated total cost increased from $140 million
 to $153 million to reflect revised project cost. Project's internal borrowing increased
 from $130 million to $132 million, federal contribution increased by $6 million and other
 contributions increased from $10 million to $15 million;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC Hydro – Various Sites - NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection implementation project for cyber assets anticipated total
 cost of $61 million was reduced to $56 million as the project contingency was not required;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC Hydro – Ruskin - left abutment slope sinkhole remediation project's anticipated total cost increased from $71 million
 to $129 million due to more complex geotechnical conditions;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· BC
 Hydro – Sperling substation metalclad switchgear replacement project's year of
 completion was amended from 2026 to 2027 due to as-found site conditions and outage availability
 constraints; and

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· ICBC
 Head Office Relocation project's anticipated total cost decreased from $162 million
 to $155 million to reflect revised project cost.

**Provincial Debt**

The provincial debt is projected to total $155.4 billion by the end of the fiscal year, $1.3 billion lower than the forecast in *Budget 2025,* primarily due to lower capital spending by taxpayer-supported entities, use of higher opening cash balance and changes in operating results.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 19 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Table 1.5 2025/26 Provincial Debt Update** <sup>1</sup>

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
|  | ($ millions) |
| **Taxpayer-supported debt forecast at *Budget 2025*** | **118719** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Higher debt level from 2024/25 | 1378 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes in operating results | 665 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Non-cash items | 66 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes in cash balances <sup>2</sup> | (1667) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes in commercial Crown corporations' retained earnings | (4) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes in other working capital balances <sup>3</sup> | 569 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported capital spending | (710) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Lower debt for social housing projects | (1024) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total taxpayer-supported changes | (727) |
| **Taxpayer-supported debt - updated forecast** | **117992** |
| **Self-supported debt forecast at *Budget 2025*** | **37913** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes: |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Lower debt level from 2024/25 | (517) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Lower capital spending | (10) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Changes in internal financing | (5) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total self-supported changes | (532) |
| **Self-supported debt - updated forecast** | **37381** |
| **2025/26 provincial debt forecast at the *First Quarterly Report*** | **155373** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Provincial debt is prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and presented consistent with the Debt Summary Report included in the Public Accounts. Debt is shown net of sinking funds and unamortized discounts, excludes accrued interest and foreign exchange adjustments, and includes non-guaranteed debt directly incurred by commercial Crown corporations and debt guaranteed by the Province.

<sup>2</sup> Reflects changes in cash balances at April 1, 2025 and includes all cash balances from the Consolidated Revenue Fund, School Districts, Universities, Colleges, Health Authorities, Hospital Societies and other taxpayer-supported agencies.

<sup>3</sup> Changes in other working capital balances include changes in accounts receivables, accounts payable, accrued liabilities, deferred revenue, investments, restricted assets and other assets.

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to be $118.0 billion at the end of 2025/26, $727 million lower than forecast in *Budget 2025*. This decrease reflects use of higher opening cash balances of $1.7 billion, lower capital spending of $0.7 billion, and lower debt for social housing projects of $1.0 billion; offset by a higher opening balance of $1.4 billion due to prefunding in 2024/25, a higher operating deficit of 0.7 billion, and changes in other working capital balance of $0.6 billion.

The taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to end 2025/26 at 26.6 per cent, 0.1 percentage point lower than forecast in *Budget 2025* due to lower debt balance. B.C.'s net liabilities-to-GDP ratio continues to be one of the lowest across jurisdictions in 2025/26 at 24.5 per cent.

Self-supported debt is forecast to be $37.4 billion at the end of 2025/26, $532 million lower than the forecast in *Budget 2025,* mainly due to a lower opening balance.

20 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Chart 1.4 Debt Affordability**

**Interest bite for Taxpayer-Supported Debt**

**(cents per dollar of revenue)** <sup>1</sup>

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp3img1.jpg)

<sup>1</sup> The ratio of interest costs (less sinking fund interest) to revenue. Figures include capitalized interest expense in order to provide a more comparable measure to outstanding debt.

While the Province's debt level is expected to increase by $21.5 billion over the year, the B.C. government is able to borrow at relatively low interest rates. The Province's taxpayer-supported interest bite is 5.0 cents per dollar of revenue. In addition, the Province continues to have one of the lowest debt affordability metrics relative to other Canadian provinces.

**Chart 1.5 Debt Affordability Among Provinces**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp3img2.jpg)

\* Figures for 2024/25 were sourced from each jurisdiction's Public Accounts or Budget document (if Public Accounts is not available). 2025/26 forecast figures were sourced from each jurisdiction's Budget or Quarterly update published from December 2024 through September 2025.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 21 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

Details on provincial debt are shown in Table 1.12.

Total provincial debt is presented consistent with the Debt Summary Report included in the *Public Accounts*. Debt is shown net of sinking fund investments and unamortized discounts, excludes accrued interest and foreign exchange adjustments, and includes non-guaranteed debt directly incurred by commercial Crown corporations and debt guaranteed by the Province.

A reconciliation between provincial debt and the financial statement debt is shown in Table 1.13.

**Risks to the Fiscal Forecast**

The major risks to the updated economic and fiscal forecasts include a worsening trade conflict, prolonged housing market weakness, and an ongoing climate of global uncertainty that slows investment. Other risks include renewed price pressures leading to elevated interest rates, climate change impacts, immigration and population volatility, and commodity price fluctuations.

Personal and corporate income tax revenues take over one year to finalize. This data lag may cause more volatility in revenue projections. Property transfer tax and provincial sales tax revenues are impacted by the number of residential transactions, average home sale prices and the amount of taxable purchases of goods and services. Natural resource revenues are affected by international commodity prices, and the health of B.C.'s major trading partners.

The spending forecast contained in the fiscal plan is based on ministry and service delivery agency plans. Risks include changes in planning assumptions such as demand for government services in the health care, education, and community social services sectors, as well as costs associated with fighting forest fires and responding to other natural disasters.

Capital spending may be influenced by several factors including design development, procurement activity, labour shortages, ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, weather, geotechnical conditions and interest rates.

As a result of these uncertainties, the actual operating result, capital spending, and debt levels may differ from the current forecast. Government will continue to update the fiscal outlook throughout the year in the second and third quarterly reports.

The potential fiscal impacts from these risks may be partly offset by the $4.0 billion allocation in the Contingencies Vote and by assuming lower growth assumptions than the private sector for B.C.'s major trading partners in 2026.

22 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

**Supplementary Schedules**

The following tables provide the financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2025 and the 2025/26 full-year forecast.

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Table 1.6 2025/26 Operating Statement** | **Table 1.6 2025/26 Operating Statement** | **Table 1.6 2025/26 Operating Statement** | **Table 1.6 2025/26 Operating Statement** | | | | | |
|  | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year |
|  | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual |
| ($ millions) | Budget | Actual | Variance | 2024/25 | Budget | Forecast | Variance | 2024/25 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Revenue | 22030 | 21421 | (609) | 21077 | 84003 | 83264 | (739) | 84046 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expense | (23348) | (22736) | 612 | (20900) | (94915) | (94841) | 74 | (91393) |
| **Surplus (deficit)** | **(1318)** | **(1315)** | **3** | **177** | **(10912)** | **(11577)** | **(665)** | **(7347)** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Accumulated surplus (deficit) beginning of the year before remeasurement gains (losses) | (10348) | (8560) | 1788 | (1213) | (10348) | (8560) | 1788 | (1213) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Accumulated surplus (deficit) before remeasurement gains (losses) | (11666) | (9875) | 1791 | (1036) | (21260) | (20137) | 1123 | (8560) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Effect of remeasurement gains (losses) | (408) | (941) | (533) | (721) | (408) | 41 | 449 | (1450) |
| **Accumulated surplus (deficit) end of period** | **(12074)** | **(10816)** | **1258** | **(1757)** | **(21668)** | **(20096)** | **1572** | **(10010)** |

---

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 23 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Table 1.7 2025/26 Revenue by Source** | **Table 1.7 2025/26 Revenue by Source** | **Table 1.7 2025/26 Revenue by Source** | **Table 1.7 2025/26 Revenue by Source** | **Table 1.7 2025/26 Revenue by Source** | | | | |
|  | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year |
|  | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual |
| ($ millions) | Budget | Actual | Variance | 2024/25 <sup>1</sup> | Budget | Forecast | Variance | 2024/25 |
| **Taxation** | 4384 | 4384 |  | 4100 | 17751 | 17686 | (65) | 17026 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Personal income | 3843 | 3843 |  | 3395 | 6209 | 6620 | 411 | 8262 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Corporate income | 784 | 785 | 1 | 782 | 3147 | 3118 | (29) | 3056 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Employer health | 2768 | 2733 | (35) | 2751 | 10961 | 10787 | (174) | 10363 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sales <sup>2</sup> | 231 | 251 | 20 | 242 | 950 | 1014 | 64 | 979 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fuel | 795 | 119 | (676) | 613 | 3046 | 225 | (2821) | 2606 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carbon <sup>3</sup> | 115 | 97 | (18) | 113 | 450 | 400 | (50) | 412 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tobacco | 997 | 999 | 2 | 943 | 4025 | 4067 | 42 | 3837 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property | 619 | 452 | (167) | 611 | 2247 | 2000 | (247) | 2005 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property transfer | 217 | 217 | - | 222 | 913 | 940 | 27 | 900 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Insurance premium and other | **14753** | **13880** | **(873)** | **13772** | **49699** | **46857** | **(2842)** | **49446** |
| **Natural resource** | 198 | 151 | (47) | 133 | 920 | 860 | (60) | 672 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties | 109 | 111 | 2 | 114 | 639 | 571 | (68) | 514 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Forests | 323 | 316 | (7) | 351 | 1438 | 1341 | (97) | 1230 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other natural resource revenues <sup>4</sup> | **630** | **578** | **(52)** | **598** | **2997** | **2772** | **(225)** | **2416** |
| **Other revenue** | 505 | 474 | (31) | 538 | 2733 | 2690 | (43) | 2911 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary education fees | 624 | 673 | 49 | 650 | 2539 | 2582 | 43 | 2557 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other Fees and licenses <sup>5</sup> | 431 | 462 | 31 | 455 | 1815 | 1808 | (7) | 2159 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment earnings | 1143 | 1327 | 184 | 1297 | 4932 | 7644 | 2712 | 5460 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Miscellaneous <sup>6</sup> | **2703** | **2936** | **233** | **2940** | **12019** | **14724** | **2705** | **13087** |
| **Contributions from the federal government** | 2478 | 2478 |  | 2369 | 9911 | 9920 | 9 | 9542 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health and social transfers | 860 | 722 | (138) | 496 | 5366 | 5000 | (366) | 4765 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other federal government contributions <sup>7</sup> | **3338** | **3200** | **(138)** | **2865** | **15277** | **14920** | **(357)** | **14307** |
| **Commercial Crown corporation net income** | (79) | (53) | 26 | 45 | 712 | 712 |  | 587 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Hydro | 262 | 267 | 5 | 288 | 1027 | 1003 | (24) | 1094 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Liquor Distribution Branch | 249 | 267 | 18 | 268 | 1279 | 1288 | 9 | 1295 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Lottery Corporation <sup>8</sup> | 140 | 304 | 164 | 258 | 800 | 800 |  | 1653 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ICBC | 34 | 42 | 8 | 43 | 193 | 188 | (5) | 161 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other <sup>9</sup> | **606** | **827** | **221** | **902** | **4011** | **3991** | **(20)** | **4790** |
| **Total revenue** | **22030** | **21421** | **(609)** | **21077** | **84003** | **83264** | **(739)** | **84046** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Restated to reflect government's current accounting policies.

<sup>2</sup> Includes provincial sales tax and HST/PST housing transition tax related to prior years.

<sup>3</sup> Includes Carbon tax revenue in 2024/25 and in 2025/26 includes only revenue related to output based pricing system.

<sup>4</sup> Columbia River Treaty, other energy and minerals, water rental and other resources.

<sup>5</sup> Healthcare-related, motor vehicle, and other fees.

<sup>6</sup> Includes reimbursements for health care and other services provided to external agencies, other recoveries, and an estimate of net revenue related to the tobacco settlement.

<sup>7</sup> Includes contributions for health, education, community development, housing and social service programs, and transportation projects.

<sup>8</sup> Net of payments to the federal government and payments to the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership in accordance with section 14.3 of the *Gaming Control Act (B.C.).*

<sup>9</sup> Includes Columbia Power Corporation, BC Railway Company, Columbia Basin power projects, and post-secondary institutions' self-supported subsidiaries.

24 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** | **Table 1.8 2025/26 Expense by Ministry, Program and Agency** |
|  | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year |
|  | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual |
| ($ millions) | Budget | Actual | Variance | 2024/25 <sup>1</sup> | Budget | Forecast | Variance | 2024/25<sup>1</sup> |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Office of the Premier | 4 | 4 |  | 5 | 18 | 18 |  | 16 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Agriculture and Food | 40 | 34 | (6) | 59 | 143 | 143 |  | 333 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Attorney General | 237 | 255 | 18 | 253 | 900 | 900 |  | 913 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Children and Family Development | 631 | 636 | 5 | 589 | 2443 | 2443 |  | 2430 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Citizens' Services | 173 | 198 | 25 | 196 | 705 | 705 |  | 761 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education and Child Care | 2884 | 2914 | 30 | 2886 | 9828 | 9834 | 6 | 9796 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Emergency Management and Climate Readiness | 14 | 32 | 18 | 31 | 125 | 125 |  | 436 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Energy and Climate Solutions | 21 | 25 | 4 | 23 | 112 | 112 |  | 558 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Environment and Parks | 52 | 66 | 14 | 69 | 221 | 227 | 6 | 273 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Finance | 333 | 298 | (35) | 269 | 1534 | 1534 |  | 2689 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Forests | 205 | 265 | 60 | 267 | 891 | 1504 | 613 | 1428 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 9405 | 8959 | (446) | 7708 | 35144 | 35144 |  | 33521 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Housing and Municipal Affairs | 622 | 604 | (18) | 453 | 1542 | 1542 |  | 1742 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation | 47 | 80 | 33 | 51 | 187 | 187 |  | 298 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Infrastructure | 10 | 5 | (5) | 10 | 55 | 55 |  | 45 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation | 30 | 41 | 11 | 58 | 117 | 117 |  | 221 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Labour | 6 | 6 |  | 10 | 26 | 26 |  | 48 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mining and Critical Minerals | 14 | 103 | 89 | 13 | 61 | 68 | 7 | 70 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills | 930 | 926 | (4) | 898 | 3516 | 3516 |  | 3520 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Public Safety and Solicitor General | 279 | 297 | 18 | 278 | 1137 | 1137 |  | 1174 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social Development and Poverty Reduction | 1425 | 1427 | 2 | 1390 | 5747 | 5747 |  | 5176 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport | 43 | 51 | 8 | 51 | 192 | 192 |  | 230 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation and Transit | 291 | 288 | (3) | 278 | 1192 | 1192 |  | 1465 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Water, Land and Resource Stewardship | 48 | 69 | 21 | 75 | 221 | 221 | - | 353 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total ministries and Office of the Premier** | **17744** | **17583** | **(161)** | **15920** | **66057** | **66689** | **632** | **67496** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Management of public funds and debt | 680 | 655 | (25) | 545 | 2762 | 2902 | 140 | 2343 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contingencies Vote |  |  |  |  | 4000 | 4000 |  | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Funding for capital expenditures | 744 | 631 | (113) | 508 | 7259 | 6626 | (633) | 4438 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Refundable tax credit transfers | 892 | 905 | 13 | 775 | 3408 | 2668 | (740) | 3047 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Legislative Assembly and other appropriations | 60 | 58 | (2) | 51 | 243 | 243 | - | 299 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total appropriations** | **20120** | **19832** | **(288)** | **17799** | **83729** | **83128** | **(601)** | **77624** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Elimination of transactions between appropriations <sup>2</sup> | (6) | (6) |  | (12) | (24) | (23) | 1 | (29) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior year liability adjustments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | (226) |
| **Consolidated revenue fund expense** | **20114** | **19826** | **(288)** | **17787** | **83705** | **83105** | **(600)** | **77369** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expenses recovered from external entities | 1106 | 1067 | (39) | 795 | 6221 | 6141 | (80) | 6762 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Elimination of funding provided to service delivery agencies | (12042) | (12259) | (217) | (10517) | (52755) | (52169) | 586 | (48523) |
| **Total direct program spending** | **9178** | **8634** | **(544)** | **8065** | **37171** | **37077** | **(94)** | **35608** |
| **Service delivery agency expense** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School districts | 2752 | 2825 | 73 | 2675 | 9361 | 9407 | 46 | 9269 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Universities | 1696 | 1679 | (17) | 1640 | 7333 | 7189 | (144) | 6978 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Colleges and institutes | 455 | 453 | (2) | 461 | 1849 | 1831 | (18) | 1911 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health authorities and hospital societies | 7434 | 7233 | (201) | 6263 | 30509 | 30648 | 139 | 29123 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other service delivery agencies | 1833 | 1912 | 79 | 1796 | 8992 | 8989 | (3) | 8504 |
| **Total service delivery agency expense** | **14170** | **14102** | **(68)** | **12835** | **58044** | **58064** | **20** | **55785** |
| **Subtotal expense** | **23348** | **22736** | **(612)** | **20900** | **95215** | **95141** | **(74)** | **91393** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expenditure management | - | - | - | - | (300) | (300) | - | - |
| **Total expense** | **23348** | **22736** | **(612)** | **20900** | **94915** | **94841** | **(74)** | **91393** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Restated to reflect government's organization and accounting policies as of June 30, 2025.

<sup>2</sup> Reflects payments made under an agreement where an expense from a voted appropriation is recorded as revenue by a special account.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 25 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** | **Table 1.9 2025/26 Expense by Function** |
|  | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year |
|  | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual |
| ($ millions) | Budget | Actual | Variance | 2024/25 <sup>1</sup> | Budget | Forecast | Variance | 2024/25 |
| Health <sup>2</sup> | 10316 | 9699 | (617) | 8625 | 39047 | 39195 | 148 | 38182 |
| Education <sup>3</sup> | 5333 | 5271 | (62) | 5103 | 19849 | 19757 | (92) | 19609 |
| Social services | 2864 | 2824 | (40) | 2525 | 11336 | 10586 | (750) | 10922 |
| Protection of persons and property | 638 | 680 | 42 | 655 | 2672 | 2682 | 10 | 3183 |
| Transportation | 592 | 598 | 6 | 603 | 2897 | 2778 | (119) | 2933 |
| Natural resources and economic development | 891 | 1206 | 315 | 1048 | 4567 | 5184 | 617 | 6165 |
| Other <sup>4</sup> | 1042 | 778 | (264) | 844 | 3423 | 3449 | 26 | 4022 |
| Contingencies Vote <sup>5</sup> |  |  |  |  | 4000 | 4000 |  |  |
| General government | 524 | 570 | 46 | 533 | 2064 | 2064 |  | 2132 |
| Debt servicing | 1148 | 1110 | (38) | 964 | 5060 | 5146 | 86 | 4245 |
| **Total expense** | **23348** | **22736** | **(612)** | **20900** | **94915** | **94841** | **(74)** | **91393** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Figures have been restated to reflect government's accounting policies as of June 30, 2025.

<sup>2</sup> Payments for healthcare services by the Ministry of Social Development and Poverty Reduction and the Ministry of Children and Family Development made on behalf of their clients are reported in the Health function.

<sup>3</sup> Payments for training costs by the Ministry of Social Development and Poverty Reduction made on behalf of its clients are reported in the Education function.

<sup>4</sup> Other spending includes the expenditure management savings target of $300 million for 2025/26.

<sup>5</sup> Contingencies for the prior fiscal year are reported in the relevant functions; the current year forecast is not yet allocated to functions.

26 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** | **Table 1.10 2025/26 Capital Spending** |
|  | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year |
|  | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual |
| ($ millions) | Budget | Actual | Variance | 2024/25 | Budget | Forecast | Variance | 2024/25 |
| **Taxpayer-supported** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School districts | 371 | 409 | 38 | 295 | 1508 | 1546 | 38 | 1199 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 327 | 216 | (111) | 292 | 1708 | 1661 | (47) | 1527 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 359 | 278 | (81) | 231 | 5009 | 4602 | (407) | 3226 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 1211 | 867 | (344) | 720 | 5069 | 4751 | (318) | 3013 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transit | 34 | 40 | 6 | 18 | 289 | 329 | 40) | 151 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Government ministries | 148 | 56 | (92) | 106 | 653 | 651 | (2) | 468 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social housing <sup>1</sup> | 193 | 127 | (66) | 131 | 888 | 867 | (21) | 603 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 47 | 52 | 5 | 36 | 250 | 257 | 7 | 192 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total taxpayer-supported** | **2690** | **2045** | **(645)** | **1829** | **15374** | **14664** | **(710)** | **10379** |
| **Self-supported** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Hydro | 1011 | 835 | (176) | 1018 | 4469 | 4469 |  | 4015 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Columbia Basin power projects <sup>2</sup> | 5 | 4 | (1) | 4 | 18 | 18 |  | 16 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Railway Company | 2 | 2 |  | 2 | 5 | 5 |  | 4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ICBC | 8 | 6 | (2) | 11 | 199 | 191 | (8) | 43 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Lottery Corporation <sup>3</sup> | 24 | 10 | (14) | 7 | 105 | 105 |  | 100 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Liquor Distribution Branch | 7 | 2 | (5) | 5 | 32 | 30 | (2) | 22 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other <sup>4</sup> | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 143 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total self-supported** | **1057** | **859** | **(198)** | **1047** | **4828** | **4818** | **(10)** | **4402** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total capital spending** | **3747** | **2904** | **(843)** | **2876** | **20202** | **19482** | **(720)** | **14781** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Includes BC Housing Management Commission (BCHMC).

<sup>2</sup> Joint ventures of the Columbia Power Corporation and Columbia Basin Trust.

<sup>3</sup> Excludes right-of-use assets except for 2024/25 full year actual.

<sup>4</sup> Includes post-secondary institutions' self-supported subsidiaries.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 27 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| |
|:---|
| **Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million <sup>1</sup>** |
| **Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from Budget 2025 released on March 4, 2025** |

---

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | Project | Estimated | Anticipated | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing |
|  | Year of | Cost to | Cost to | Total | Internal/ | P3 | Federal | Other |
| ($ millions) | Completion | Jun. 30, 2025 | Complete | Cost | Borrowing | Liability | Gov't | Contrib'ns |
| **Schools** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Centennial Secondary <sup>2</sup> | 2017 | 60 | 1 | 61 | 61 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;New Westminster Secondary <sup>2</sup> | 2021 | 98 | 9 | 107 | 107 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Quesnel Junior School <sup>2</sup> | 2022 | 48 | 1 | **49** | **49** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Stitó:s Lá:lém totí:lt Elementary Middle School <sup>2</sup> | 2022 | 53 | 1 | 54 | 49 |  |  | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Coast Salish Elementary <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 28 | 10 | **38** | **33** |  |  | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Burnaby North Secondary <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 117 |  | 117 | 108 |  |  | 9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Eric Hamber Secondary <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 94 | 12 | 106 | 94 |  |  | 12 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Victoria High School <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 99 | 1 | 100 | 97 |  |  | 3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cedar Hill Middle | 2025 | 35 | 19 | 54 | 50 |  |  | 4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cowichan Secondary <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 85 | 1 | 86 | 84 |  |  | 2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Henry Hudson Elementary | 2025 | 35 | 25 | 60 | 49 |  |  | 11 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;North East Latimer Elementary | 2025 | 29 | 23 | 52 | 52 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Richmond City Centre East Site** <sup>2</sup>** | **2025** | **61** | **-** | **61** | **6** |  |  | **55** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Burke Mountain Secondary | 2026 | 74 | 86 | 160 | 135 |  |  | 25 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carson Elementary | 2026 | 20 | 41 | 61 | 61 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;New Cloverley Elementary | 2026 | 21 | 43 | 64 | 61 |  |  | 3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sníne Elementary |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;- (formerly Pineview Valley Elementary) | 2026 | 24 | 41 | 65 | 65 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;New East Side Elementary | **2027** | 3 | 56 | 59 | 59 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;George Pringle Secondary |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;- (formerly Westside Secondary) | 2027 | 44 | 80 | 124 | 121 |  |  | 3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;La Vallée (Pemberton) Elementary | 2027 | 8 | 58 | 66 | 66 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prince Rupert Middle | 2027 | 5 | 122 | 127 | 127 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Smith Middle and Secondary | 2027 | 2 | 304 | 306 | 306 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cameron Elementary | 2028 | 2 | 66 | 68 | 68 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Guildford Park Secondary | 2028 | 2 | 63 | 65 | 60 |  |  | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;John Diefenbaker Elementary | 2028 | 1 | 52 | 53 | 53 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mission Secondary | 2028 | 1 | 175 | 176 | 175 |  |  | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Montgomery Middle | 2028 |  | 87 | 87 | 87 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Pitt Meadows Secondary | 2028 |  | 144 | 144 | 144 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tamanawis Secondary | 2028 | 3 | 54 | 57 | 52 |  |  | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Clayton Heights Secondary** | **2029** | **-** | **90** | **90** | **89** |  |  | **1** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fleetwood Park Secondary | 2029 | 1 | 78 | 79 | 79 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Olympic Village Elementary | 2029 | 1 | 150 | 151 | 151 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Burtch Road Middle School** | **2030** | **-** | **101** | **101** | **101** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**North Langford Secondary** | **2030** | **-** | **219** | **219** | **219** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Seismic mitigation program <sup>3</sup> | 2030 | 1826 | 200 | 2026 | 2026 |  |  | - |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total schools |  | 2880 | 2413 | 5293 | 5144 |  |  | 149 |
| **Post-secondary institutions** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Simon Fraser University – Student Housing <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 114 |  | **114** | 73 |  |  | **41** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;University of Victoria – Student Housing <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 243 |  | 243 | 128 |  |  | 115 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Okanagan College – Student Housing <sup>2</sup> | **2024** | 72 | 1 | **73** | **73** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The University of British Columbia |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;–Brock Commons Phase 2 - Student Housing <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 165 |  | **165** | 2 |  |  | **163** |

---

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| ***Post-secondary institutions projects are continued on the next page*** | |
|  | ![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp04img1.jpg) |

---

28 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| |
|:---|
| **Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million <sup>1</sup>** |
| **Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from *Budget 2025* released on March 4, 2025** |

---

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | Project | Estimated | Anticipated | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing |
|  | Year of | Cost to | Cost to | Total | Internal/ | P3 | Federal | Other |
| ($ millions) | Completion | Jun. 30, 2025 | Complete | Cost | Borrowing | Liability | Gov't | Contrib'ns |
| **Post-secondary institutions projects continued** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;British Columbia Institute of Technology – Student Housing | 2025 | 125 | 19 | 144 | 129 |  |  | 15 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capilano University – Student Housing | 2025 | 37 | 21 | 58 | 41 |  |  | 17 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;North Island College – Student Housing | 2025 | 63 | 15 | 78 | 76 |  |  | 2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Royal Roads University – West Shore Learning Centre | 2025 | 96 | 12 | 108 | **88** |  |  | **20** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Simon Fraser University |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;–Digital Research Infrastructure Refresh - CEDAR <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 81 | 7 | **88** | 25 |  | 41 | **22** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The University of British Columbia |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;–Recreation Centre North <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 68 | 5 | **73** |  |  |  | **73** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;–School of Biomedical Engineering <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 137 | 2 | 139 | 25 |  |  | 114 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– The Gateway Building | 2025 | 164 | 31 | 195 |  |  |  | 195 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;University of the Fraser Valley – Student Housing | 2025 | 64 | 41 | 105 | 88 |  |  | 17 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The University of British Columbia |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– x̌əl sic snpax̌nwixʷtn - UBCO | 2026 | 55 | 64 | 119 |  |  |  | 119 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;University of Victoria |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Engineering and Computer Science Building Expansion | 2026 | 54 | 96 | 150 | 97 |  |  | 53 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;British Columbia Institute of Technology |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Trades and Technology Complex | 2027 | 12 | 206 | 218 | 186 |  | 1 | 31 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capilano University – Squamish Student Housing | 2027 | 52 | 3 | 55 | 48 |  |  | 7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Douglas College – Academic and Student Housing | 2027 | 64 | 268 | 332 | 232 |  |  | 100 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Okanagan College – Centre for Food, Wine and Tourism | 2027 | 1 | 56 | 57 | 52 |  |  | 5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Simon Fraser University – Student Housing Phase 3 | 2027 | 12 | 185 | **197** | 132 |  |  | **65** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The University of British Columbia |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Sauder School of Business Power House Expansion | 2027 | 15 | 136 | 151 |  |  |  | 151 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– UBCO Downtown Kelowna Project | 2027 |  | 54 | 54 |  |  |  | 54 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vancouver Island University – Student Housing and Dining | 2027 | 16 | 91 | 107 | 106 |  |  | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Camosun College - Student Housing | **2028** | 1 | 154 | 155 | 152 |  |  | 3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vancouver Community College |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Centre for Clean Energy & Automotive Innovation | **2028** | 44 | 271 | 315 | 295 |  |  | 20 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Kwantlen Polytechnic University** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– Student Housing and Dining** | **2029** | **-** | **143** | **143** | **118** | **-** | **-** | **25** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**University of Victoria – Student Housing Expansion** | **2029** | **-** | **178** | **178** | **121** | **-** | **-** | **57** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The University of British Columbia |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Student Housing - Lower Mall Precinct | 2029 | 4 | 556 | 560 | 300 |  |  | 260 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Canada's Immuno-Engineering and Biomanufacturing |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Hub: Advanced Therapeutics Manufacturing Facility | 2030 | 6 | 64 | 70 | 22 | - | 42 | 6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total post-secondary institutions |  | 1765 | 2679 | 4444 | 2609 | - | 84 | 1751 |
| **Health facilities** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Royal Columbian Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1 <sup>2</sup> | 2020 | 246 |  | **246** | **240** |  |  | **6** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Red Fish Healing Centre for Mental Health and Addiction - θəqiʔ ɫəwʔənəq leləm <sup>2</sup> | 2021 | 129 | 2 | 131 | 131 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Penticton Regional Hospital Patient Care Tower <sup>2</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Direct procurement | 2022 | 65 |  | **65** | **14** | **-** | **-** | **51** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– P3 contract | 2019 | 232 |  | 232 |  | 139 |  | 93 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dogwood Lodge Long-term Care Home Replacement <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 65 |  | 65 |  |  |  | 65 |

---

**Health projects are continued on the next page**

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 29 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| |
|:---|
| **Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million <sup>1</sup>** |
| **Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from *Budget 2025* released on March 4, 2025** |

---

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | Project | Estimated | Anticipated | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing |
|  | Year of | Cost to | Cost to | Total | Internal/ | P3 | Federal | Other |
| ($ millions) | Completion | Jun. 30, 2025 | Complete | Cost | Borrowing | Liability | Gov't | Contrib'ns |
| **Health projects continued** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Clinical and Systems Transformation | 2025 | 844 |  | **844** | 702 |  |  | **142** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;iHealth Project – Vancouver Island Health Authority | 2025 | 165 |  | **165** | 55 |  |  | **110** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Lions Gate Hospital – New Acute Care Facility | **2025** | 293 | 33 | 326 | 160 |  |  | 166 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Nanaimo Regional General Hospital |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– ICU/HAU Redevelopment | 2025 | 44 | 16 | 60 | 22 |  |  | 38 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Stuart Lake Hospital Replacement | **2025** | 147 | 11 | 158 | 140 |  |  | 18 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Surrey Memorial Hospital |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Interventional Cardiology and Interventional Radiology | 2025 | 14 | 83 | 97 | 97 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Hemodialysis Renal Centre | **2026** | 25 | 60 | 85 | 84 |  |  | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mills Memorial Hospital Replacement | 2026 | 616 | 17 | 633 | **510** | **-** |  | **123** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Royal Columbian Hospital Redevelopment Phases 2 & 3 | 2026 | 859 | 390 | **1249** | **1184** |  |  | **65** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;University Hospital of Northern BC Redevelopment Phase 1 – Site Preparation | 2026 | 32 | 71 | 103 | 62 |  |  | 41 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Burnaby Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 1 | **2027** | 351 | 282 | 633 | 599 |  |  | 34 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Campbell River Long-Term Care | 2027 | 1 | 133 | 134 | 80 |  |  | 54 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cowichan District Hospital Replacement | 2027 | 633 | 813 | 1446 | 1148 |  |  | 298 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dawson Creek and District Hospital Replacement | 2027 | 318 | 272 | 590 | 413 |  |  | 177 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Immunization BC Digital Platform | 2027 | 64 | 11 | 75 | 75 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Nanaimo Long-Term Care | 2027 | 2 | 284 | 286 | 172 |  |  | 114 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;New St. Paul's Hospital | 2027 | 1616 | 564 | 2180 | 1327 |  |  | 853 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Richmond Long-Term Care | 2027 | 1 | 177 | 178 | 178 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Royal Inland Hospital Phil and Jennie Gaglardi Tower |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Direct procurement | 2027 | 132 | 70 | **202** | **112** |  |  | 90 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– P3 contract | 2022 | 288 |  | 288 |  | 164 |  | 124 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Western Communities Long-Term Care | 2027 | 2 | 222 | 224 | 157 |  |  | 67 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Abbotsford Long-Term Care | **2028** | 25 | 186 | 211 | 157 |  |  | 54 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Centre for Children and Youth Living with Health Complexity | 2028 | 45 | 265 | 310 | 224 |  |  | 86 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Delta Long-Term Care | **2028** | 4 | 176 | 180 | 162 |  |  | 18 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;East Kootenay Regional Hospital |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Oncology and Renal Redevelopment | 2028 |  | 59 | 59 |  |  |  | 59 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Fort St. John Long-Term Care** | **2028** | **-** | **155** | **155** | **109** | **-** |  | **46** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Kamloops Cancer Centre | 2028 | 4 | 382 | **386** | **341** |  |  | 45 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Nanaimo Cancer Centre | 2028 | 15 | 314 | **329** | **307** |  |  | **22** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;St. Vincent's Heather Long-Term Care | 2028 | 18 | 291 | **309** | 309 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cariboo Memorial Hospital Redevelopment | 2029 | 159 | 208 | 367 | 257 |  |  | 110 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Chilliwack Long-Term Care | 2029 | 7 | 267 | 274 | 246 |  |  | 28 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cottonwoods Long-Term Care Replacement | 2029 |  | 187 | 187 | 112 |  |  | 75 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dr. F.W. Green Memorial Home | 2029 | 3 | 233 | **236** | **143** |  |  | **93** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;New Surrey Hospital and BC Cancer Centre | 2029 | 853 | 2028 | 2881 | 2816 |  |  | 65 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;St. Paul's Hospital Clinical Support and Research Centre | 2029 | 58 | 580 | 638 | 332 |  |  | 306 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vancouver General Hospital – Operating Rooms Renewal - Phase 2 | 2029 | 93 | 330 | **423** | **396** | **-** |  | **27** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Burnaby Hospital Redevelopment – Phase 2 and BC Cancer Centre | 2030 | 17 | 1798 | 1815 | 1771 |  |  | 44 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Squamish (Hilltop) Long-Term Care | 2030 |  | 286 | 286 | 286 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;University Hospital of Northern BC Redevelopment Phase 2 – Acute Care Tower | 2031 | 1 | 1578 | 1579 | 1246 |  |  | 333 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Richmond Hospital Redevelopment | 2033 | 36 | 1923 | 1959 | 1889 | - |  | 70 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total health facilities |  | 8522 | 14757 | 23279 | 18765 | 303 |  | 4211 |

---

30 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| |
|:---|
| **Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million <sup>1</sup>** |
| **Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from *Budget 2025* released on March 4, 2025** |

---

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | Project | Estimated | Anticipated | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing |
|  | Year of | Cost to | Cost to | Total | Internal/ | P3 | Federal | Other |
| ($ millions) | Completion | Jun. 30, 2025 | Complete | Cost | Borrowing | Liability | Gov't | Contrib'ns |
| **Transportation** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 99 10-Mile Slide <sup>2</sup> | 2021 | 83 | 5 | 88 | 88 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 4 Kennedy Hill Safety Improvements <sup>2</sup> | 2022 | 57 | 10 | 67 | 53 |  | 14 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 14 Corridor improvements <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 78 |  | **78** | **49** |  | 29 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 91 to Highway 17 and Deltaport Way Corridor improvements <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 250 | 10 | 260 | 87 |  | 82 | 91 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;West Fraser Road Realignment <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 84 | 10 | 94 | 82 |  | 12 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Corridor – Falls Creek <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 86 | 57 | 143 | **59** |  | **84** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Kicking Horse Canyon Phase 4 <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 593 | 8 | 601 | 386 |  | 215 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Quartz Creek Bridge Replacement <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 102 | 17 | 119 | 69 |  | 50 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 5 Corridor <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 249 | 101 | 350 | **111** |  | **239** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transit Victoria HandyDART Facility <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 73 | 11 | 84 | 41 |  | 21 | 22 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Chase Four-Laning <sup>4</sup> | 2025 | 150 | 46 | 196 | 184 |  | 12 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Corridor – Nicomen Bridge <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 90 | 54 | 144 | **64** |  | **80** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 7 Widening – 266th St. to 287th St. | 2025 | 85 | 45 | 130 | 101 |  | 29 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 17 Keating Cross Overpass | 2025 | 54 | 23 | 77 | 58 |  | 17 | 2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 99 / Steveston Interchange, Transit & Cycling Improvements | 2025 | 75 | 62 | 137 | 137 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Pattullo Bridge Replacement | 2025 | 1107 | 530 | 1637 | 1637 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Blackwater North Fraser Slide | 2026 | 14 | 189 | 203 | **192** |  | **11** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cottonwood Hill at Highway 97 Slide | 2026 | 27 | 308 | 335 | **313** |  | **22** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Corridor – Tank Hill | 2026 | 94 | 199 | 293 | **218** |  | **75** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Ford Road to Tappen Valley Road Four-Laning | 2026 | 147 | 96 | 243 | 161 |  | 82 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Salmon Arm West <sup>5</sup> | **2026** | 93 | 47 | 140 | 109 |  | 31 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Selkirk | 2026 | 13 | 116 | 129 | 97 |  | 32 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Highway 8 Corridor** | **2026** | **15** | **215** | **230** | **220** |  | **10** | **-** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 95 Bridge Replacement | 2026 | 28 | 62 | 90 | 61 |  | 29 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Kootenay Lake ferry service upgrade | 2026 | 79 | 38 | 117 | 100 |  | 17 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Quesnel-Hydraulic Road Slide** | **2026** | **1** | **79** | **80** | **80** |  | **-** | **-** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Broadway Subway <sup>6</sup> | 2027 | 1921 | 1033 | 2954 | 1957 |  | 897 | 100 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Bus on Shoulder McKenzie to Colwood Interchange | 2027 | 7 | 88 | 95 | 68 |  | 27 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Goldstream Safety Improvements | 2027 | 18 | 144 | 162 | 162 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Jumping Creek to MacDonald | 2027 | 67 | 178 | 245 | 199 |  | 46 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 R.W. Bruhn Bridge | 2027 | 90 | 170 | 260 | 169 |  | 91 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Highway 1 Sackum Overhead Bridge Replacement** | **2027** | **5** | **88** | **93** | **93** |  | **-** | **-** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Belleville Terminal Redevelopment | 2028 | 24 | 392 | **416** | **371** |  | **45** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Fraser Valley Corridor Improvements 264th St. to Mount Lehman Road | 2028 | 294 | 1956 | **2250** | **2250** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 216th St. to 264th St. widening | **2029** | 115 | 365 | **480** | **383** |  | **97** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Surrey Langley SkyTrain Project | 2029 | 1381 | 4615 | 5996 | 4441 |  | 1306 | 249 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fraser River Tunnel Project <sup>7</sup> | 2030 | 288 | 3860 | 4148 | 4148 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Highway 1 Fraser Valley Corridor Improvements Mount Lehman Road to Highway 11 | 2031 | 74 | 2577 | 2651 | 2651 |  | - | - |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total transportation |  | 8011 | 17804 | 25815 | 21649 |  | 3702 | 464 |

---

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 31 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast<br>

---

| |
|:---|
| **Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million <sup>1</sup>** |
| **Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from *Budget 2025* released on March 4, 2025** |

---

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | Project | Estimated | Anticipated | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing |
|  | Year of | Cost to | Cost to | Total | Internal/ | P3 | Federal | Other |
| ($ millions) | Completion | Jun. 30, 2025 | Complete | Cost | Borrowing | Liability | Gov't | Contrib'ns |
| **Housing** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Stanley New Fountain <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 77 | 1 | 78 | 9 |  |  | 69 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;58 W Hastings <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 154 | 6 | 160 | 67 |  | 21 | 72 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Crosstown <sup>2</sup> | **2024** | 75 |  | **75** | **53** | **-** | **11** | 11 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Vancouver Parkside** | **2025** | **-** | **54** | **54** | **54** | **-** | **-** | **-** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1015 Hastings St. Development | 2025 | 116 | 35 | 151 | **95** | **-** | **37** | 19 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;320 Hastings St. E. Redevelopment | 2025 | 59 | 27 | 86 | 49 |  | 5 | 32 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;128 to 134 East Cordova St. | 2026 | 65 | 101 | 166 | 36 |  | 27 | 103 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1410 E King Edward Ave | 2026 | 3 | 76 | 79 | 73 |  |  | 6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;296 Angela Drive | **2027** | 120 | 101 | 221 | **150** | **-** | **42** | **29** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2086-2098 W 7th Ave | **2028** | 3 | 105 | 108 | 92 |  |  | 16 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Clark & 1st Ave | 2028 | 16 | 172 | 188 | 32 |  | 121 | 35 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1451 Bertram St. | 2029 | 1 | 119 | 120 | 120 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;926 & 930 Pandora Ave | 2029 | 3 | 150 | **153** | **132** | **-** | **6** | **15** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total housing |  | 692 | 947 | 1639 | 962 | - | 270 | 407 |
| **Other taxpayer-supported** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Nanaimo Correctional Centre Replacement <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 180 | 1 | 181 | 181 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;FIFA World Cup 2026 - Stadium Capital Improvements | 2026 | 41 | 68 | 109 | 109 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial Archives, Research and Collections Campus (formerly RBCM Collections and Research Building) | 2026 | 180 | 90 | 270 | 270 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Connect the Basin – high-speed internet infrastructure | 2027 | 2 | 74 | 76 | 43 | - | 29 | 4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total other taxpayer-supported |  | 403 | 233 | 636 | 603 | - | 29 | 4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total taxpayer-supported** |  | **22273** | **38833** | **61106** | **49732** | **303** | **4085** | **6986** |
| **Power generation and transmission** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Hydro |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Mica replace units 1-4 generator transformers project <sup>2</sup> | 2022 | 83 | 6 | 89 | 89 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Various Sites - NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection implementation project for cyber assets <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 55 | 1 | **56** | **56** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Lake Buntzen 1 Coquitlam tunnel gates refurbishment project <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 64 | 10 | 74 | 74 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Wahleach refurbish generator project <sup>2</sup> | 2023 | 57 | 4 | 61 | 61 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Bridge River 1 - penstock concrete foundation refurbishment project <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 61 | 4 | 65 | 65 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Capilano substation upgrade project <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 74 | 3 | 77 | 77 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– G.M. Shrum G1 to 10 control system upgrade <sup>2</sup> | 2024 | 72 | 4 | 76 | 76 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Mica modernize controls project <sup>2</sup> | 2025 | 56 |  | 56 | 56 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Natal - 60-138 kV switchyard upgrade project | 2025 | 78 | 23 | 101 | 101 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Site C project <sup>8</sup> | 2025 | 14529 | 1471 | 16000 | 16000 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Vancouver Island radio system project | 2025 | 53 | 5 | 58 | 57 |  |  | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Various Sites - EV charging infrastructure implementation program | 2025 | 72 | 1 | 73 | 55 |  | 10 | 8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– 2L143 - cable replacement project** | **2026** | **16** | **84** | **100** | **100** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– Cheakamus recoat units 1 and 2 penstocks (interior and exterior) project** | **2026** | **42** | **11** | **53** | **53** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– Comox - Puntledge flow control improvements project** | **2026** | **42** | **11** | **53** | **53** |  |  |  |

---

**Power generation and transmission projects are continued on the next page**

32 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Table 1.11 Capital Expenditure Projects Greater Than $50 million <sup>1</sup>**

**Note: Information in bold type denotes changes from *Budget 2025* released on March 4, 2025**

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | Project | Estimated | Anticipated | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing | Project Financing |
|  | Year of | Cost to | Cost to | Total | Internal/ | P3 | Federal | Other |
| ($ millions) | Completion | Jun. 30, 2025 | Complete | Cost | Borrowing | Liability | Gov't | Contrib'ns |
| **Power generation and transmission projects continued** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Mainwaring station upgrade project | 2026 | 76 | 78 | 154 | 154 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– **Mica townsite apartment accommodation project** | **2026** | **20** | **47** | **67** | **67** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Ruskin - left abutment slope sinkhole remediation project | 2026 | 65 | 64 | **129** | **129** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– **Distribution design modernization project** | **2027** | **6** | **48** | **54** | **54** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Fleetwood - Distribution load interconnection (SLS Servicing) project | 2027 | 4 | 154 | 158 | 77 |  |  | 81 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– Kimberley to Marysville - substation relocation project** | **2027** | **5** | **68** | **73** | **73** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Long Lake terminal station - transmission load interconnection project | 2027 | 10 | 70 | 80 | 79 |  |  | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Materials classification facility project | 2027 | 26 | 50 | 76 | 76 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Minette - transmission load interconnection project | 2027 | 9 | 63 | 72 | 52 |  |  | 20 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Sperling substation metalclad switchgear replacement project | **2027** | 62 | 14 | 76 | 76 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Ladore spillway seismic upgrade project | 2028 | 75 | 298 | 373 | 373 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– Mica - U1 - U4 circuit breaker and iso-phase bus replacement project** | **2028** | **25** | **151** | **176** | **176** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Northwest - substations outage mitigation project | 2028 | 25 | 64 | 89 | 87 |  |  | 2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Peace to Kelly Lake stations sustainment project | 2028 | 127 | 217 | 344 | 344 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Prince George to Terrace capacitors project | 2028 | 167 | 415 | 582 | 481 |  | 97 | 4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Treaty Creek Terminal - transmission load interconnection (KSM) project | 2028 | 60 | 108 | 168 | 81 |  |  | 87 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Burrard switchyard - control building upgrade project | 2029 | 6 | 51 | 57 | 57 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– John Hart dam seismic upgrade project | 2029 | 373 | 539 | 912 | 912 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Kootenay Canal modernize controls project | 2029 | 24 | 37 | 61 | 61 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Bridge River 1 replace units 1-4 generators/ governors project | 2032 | 28 | 285 | 313 | 313 | - | - | - |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total power generation and transmission |  | 16547 | 4459 | 21006 | 20695 | - | 107 | 204 |
| **Other self-supported** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ICBC Head Office Relocation | 2028 | - | 155 | **155** | **155** | - | - | - |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total self-supported** |  | **16547** | **4614** | **21161** | **20850** | - | **107** | **204** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total projects over $50 million** |  | **38820** | **43447** | **82267** | **70582** | **303** | **4192** | **7190** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Only projects that receive provincial funding and have been approved by Treasury Board and/or Crown corporation boards are included in this table. Ministry service plans may highlight projects that still require final approval. Capital costs reflect current government accounting policy.

<sup>2</sup> Assets have been put into service and only trailing costs remain.

<sup>3</sup> The Seismic Mitigation Program consists of spending to date on Phase 2 of the program and may include spending on projects greater than $50 million included in the table.

<sup>4</sup> Project is delivered in two segments, the Chase Creek Road to Chase West reached substantial completion in 2023 and the Chase West to Chase Creek Bridge is expected to complete in 2025.

<sup>5</sup> Project is delivered in two segments, the Salmon Arm West 1st Ave to 10th Ave reached substantial completion in 2023 and the Salmon Arm West 10th Ave to 10th St. is expected to complete in 2026.

<sup>6</sup> The Broadway Subway Project forecast and value of costs incurred to date include the City of Vancouver in-kind contribution of land rights, in keeping with the approved project budget. Under current government accounting, purchased intangible assets are given accounting recognition, and contributed intangible assets, such as land use rights or licenses are not.

<sup>7</sup> The Fraser River Tunnel is forecasted to open to the public in 2030 with the removal of the existing tunnel to follow.

<sup>8</sup> The approved project cost estimate (June 2021) is $16 billion, with an approved project in-service date of 2025. The first, second, third, and fourth generating units are in-service, in October 2024, December 2024, February 2025, and March 2025, respectively, with all four units ahead of their approved schedule in-service dates. The anticipated project cost and costs to date include capital costs, charges subject to regulatory deferral and certain operating expenditures.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 33 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Table 1.12 2025/26 Provincial Debt <sup>1</sup>**

---

| | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Year-to-Date to June 30 | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year | Full Year |
|  | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Actual |
| ($ millions) | Budget | Actual | Variance | 2024/25 | Budget | Forecast | Variance | 2024/25 |
| **Taxpayer-supported debt** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Provincial government** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Operating | 25000 | 23025 | (1975) | 21127 | 29703 | 32054 | 2351 | 24516 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capital <sup>2</sup> | 46750 | 46384 | (366) | 41309 | 52268 | 51827 | (441) | 45539 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total provincial government** | 71750 | 69409 | (2341) | 62436 | 81971 | 83881 | 1910 | 70055 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported entities |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 25600 | 25045 | (555) | 22208 | 29775 | 28835 | (940) | 24078 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health authorities and hospital societies | 2350 | 2326 | (24) | 2379 | 2287 | 2283 | (4) | 2333 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 978 | 968 | (10) | 900 | 984 | 986 | 2 | 976 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social housing <sup>3</sup> | 1537 | 1340 | (197) | 1152 | 2584 | 1560 | (1024) | 1237 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 536 | 438 | (98) | 382 | 1118 | 447 | (671) | 410 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total taxpayer-supported entities | 31001 | 30117 | (884) | 27021 | 36748 | 34111 | (2637) | 29034 |
| **Total taxpayer-supported debt** | **102751** | **99526** | **(3225)** | **89457** | **118719** | **117992** | **(727)** | **99089** |
| **Self-supported debt** | **35909** | **35842** | **(67)** | **33024** | **37913** | **37381** | **(532)** | **34788** |
| **Total provincial debt** | **138660** | **135368** | **(3292)** | **122481** | **156632** | **155373** | **(1259)** | **133877** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Provincial debt is prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and presented consistent with the Debt Summary Report included in the Public Accounts. Debt is shown net of sinking funds and unamortized discounts, excludes accrued interest and foreign exchange adjustments, and includes non-guaranteed debt directly incurred by commercial Crown corporations and debt guaranteed by the Province.

<sup>2</sup> Includes debt incurred by the government to fund the building of capital assets in the education, health, social housing and other sectors.

<sup>3</sup> Includes debt incurred by BC Housing Management Commission (BCHMC) to fund investments in affordable housing. The debt forecast reflects projects that have been approved as of June 2025.

34 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Updated 2025/26 Financial Forecast

**Table 1.13 2025/26 Statement of Financial Position**

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | Actual | Year-to-Date | Forecast |
|  | March 31, | June 30, | March 31, |
| ($ millions) | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
| **Financial assets:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cash and temporary investments | 13341 | 8486 | 7786 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other financial assets | 24071 | 24895 | 26663 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sinking funds | 562 | 569 | 396 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investments in commercial Crown corporations: |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Retained earnings | 16985 | 17293 | 18526 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Recoverable capital loans | 33577 | 34495 | 35708 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total investments in commercial Crown corporations | 50562 | 51788 | 54234 |
| **Total financial assets** | **88536** | **85738** | **89079** |
| **Liabilities:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Accounts payable, accrued liabilities and others | 24395 | 22204 | 24859 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Deferred revenue | 16213 | 17451 | 17804 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt: |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported debt | 99089 | 99526 | 117992 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported debt | 34788 | 35842 | 37381 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial debt | 133877 | 135368 | 155373 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Add: debt offset by sinking funds | 562 | 569 | 396 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Add: foreign exchange adjustments | 2434 | 1290 | 958 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Less : guarantees and non-guaranteed debt | (1639) | (1588) | (1679) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Financial statement debt | 135234 | 135639 | 155048 |
| **Total liabilities** | **175842** | **175294** | **197711** |
| **Net liabilities** | **(87306)** | **(89556)** | **(108632)** |
| **Capital and other non-financial assets:** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tangible capital assets | 72736 | 74031 | 84130 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other non-financial assets | 4560 | 4709 | 4406 |
| **Total capital and other non-financial assets** | **77296** | **78740** | **88536** |
| **Accumulated deficit** | **(10010)** | **(10816)** | **(20096)** |

---

**Changes in Financial Position**

---

| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
|  | Year-to-Date | Forecast |
|  | June 30, | March 31, |
| ($ millions) | 2025 | 2026 |
| **Deficit for the period** | **1315** | **11577** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Change in remeasurement (gains) losses | (509) | (1491) |
| Increase in accumulated deficit | 806 | 10086 |
| **Capital and other non-financial asset changes:** |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported capital investments | 2045 | 14664 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Less: amortization and other accounting changes | (750) | (3270) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase in net capital assets | 1295 | 11394 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in other non-financial assets | 149 | (154) |
| Increase in capital and other non-financial assets | 1444 | 11240 |
| **Increase in net liabilities** | **2250** | **21326** |
| **Investment and working capital changes:** |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment in commercial Crown corporations: |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase in retained earnings | 308 | 1541 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported capital investments | 859 | 4818 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Less: loan repayments and other accounting changes | 59 | (2687) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase in investment in commercial Crown corporations | 1226 | 3672 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in cash and temporary investments | (4855) | (5555) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in other working capital | 1784 | 371 |
| **Increase (decrease) in investment and working capital** | **(1845)** | **(1512)** |
| **Increase in financial statement debt** | **405** | **19814** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Change in sinking fund debt and foreign exchange adjustments | 1137 | 1642 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in guarantees and non-guaranteed debt | (51) | 40 |
| **Increase in total provincial debt** | **1491** | **21496** |

---

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 35 <br>

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**PART 2 \| ECONOMIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK<sup>1</sup>**

**Summary**

B.C.'s economic performance remains resilient, despite disruption and uncertainty from the global trade conflict. Strong year-to-date retail sales, steady employment gains, and an easing interest rate environment have supported B.C.'s economy, while housing market weakness has weighed on the economic outlook. Exports have been volatile, with merchandise trade volumes and commodity prices influenced by developments in global demand in response to U.S. tariffs and reaction from other countries. B.C.'s diverse economy and greater access to non-U.S. markets will help mitigate impacts stemming from the ongoing trade conflict. A summary of tariffs included in the *First Quarterly Report and how they compare with Budget 2025* is discussed on page 39.

The Ministry of Finance (Ministry) estimates that B.C.'s economy grew by 1.2 per cent in 2024. The Ministry forecasts economic growth to increase to 1.5 per cent in 2025 and then slow to 1.3 per cent in 2026. Exports and investment are expected to weaken in the near-term as U.S. tariffs disrupt established trade flows, and continued uncertainty impacts investment decisions. Stable inflation and a pivot to domestic consumption supports retail trade in the near-term, while lower immigration levels are expected to limit employment growth. Economic growth is expected to slow slightly in 2026 as consumption growth eases from the strong pace observed in early 2025, and the global trade conflict persists. Over the medium-term (2027 to 2029), real GDP growth is expected to average 2.1 per cent annually, supported by a return to more typical immigration levels and a modest export recovery. Overall, the Ministry's forecast for B.C. real GDP growth is within the range of private sector forecasters.

**Chart 2.1 Ministry's Outlook for B.C. Compared to Private Sector**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp05img02.jpg)

<sup>1</sup> Reflects data available as of August 20, 2025, unless otherwise indicated.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 37 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

The main downside risks to B.C.'s economic outlook include a worsening global trade conflict, prolonged housing market weakness, and an ongoing environment of uncertainty that slows investment. Other risks include renewed price pressures leading to elevated interest rates, climate change impacts, immigration and population volatility, and commodity price instability.

**British Columbia Economic Activity and Outlook**

The Ministry's forecast for B.C. real GDP growth in 2025 has been revised down to 1.5 per cent from the *Budget 2025* forecast of 1.8 per cent, and the forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 1.3 per cent from 1.9 per cent. The downward revision reflects worsening developments in the global trade conflict including the implementation of U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory tariffs as well as a slowdown in the housing market. The forecast for 2025 is aided by growth in retail sales, exports, and employment in the first quarter (January to March period), but the annual outlook is expected to worsen as the impacts of tariffs and continued uncertainty offset early gains. Nominal GDP growth for 2025 has been revised down to 4.0 per cent from 4.3 per cent in *Budget 2025*, and in 2026 down slightly to 4.2 per cent from 4.3 per cent, reflecting changes in real GDP, which are partly offset by higher prices.

**Table 2.1 British Columbia Economic Indicators**

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | First Quarter | Second Quarter | Year-to-date |
|  | Jan. to Mar. 2025 | Apr. to Jun. 2025 | Jan. to Jun. 2025 |
|  | change from | change from | change from |
| All data seasonally adjusted, per cent change | Oct. to Dec. 2024 | Jan. to Mar. 2025 | Jan. to Jun. 2024 |
| Employment | +1.1 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Manufacturing shipments | -0.5 | -4.5 | +0.2 |
| Exports | +8.1 | -11.2 | -0.6 |
| Retail sales<sup>1</sup> | +1.6 | +1.7 | +6.6 |
| Consumer price index<sup>2</sup> | +2.6 | +2.1 | +2.4 |
| Housing starts | -29.5 | +60.3 | -6.7 |
| Residential sales units | -12.3 | -7.0 | -6.8 |
| Residential average sale price | -4.5 | -0.7 | -3.9 |
| Non-residential building permits | +18.0 | -34.3 | +3.7 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Data to May

 

<sup>2</sup> Quarterly calculations for CPI are year-over-year, e.g. First Quarter is Jan. to Mar. 2025 change from Jan. to Mar. 2024

The near-term outlook for B.C. is supported by gains in consumer spending due to lower interest rates and stable inflation. While tariffs are expected to put upward pressure on inflation across Canada, those effects are partly offset by the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs, persistent uncertainty, and an expanding global trade conflict are expected to lower real export activity in 2025 and slow growth in 2026 below expectations in *Budget 2025*. Employment growth is expected to soften in the near-term while the unemployment rate is expected to remain higher but stable through 2026 as slower employment growth is offset by low migration and population growth. Residential construction activity is expected to remain slower through 2026 amid global trade uncertainty, low population growth, and the lagged effects of elevated interest rates and subdued home sales.

38 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

Over the medium-term, B.C.'s economy is expected to recover from a period of global trade uncertainty and low population growth, with average annual real GDP growth of 2.1 per cent and average annual nominal GDP growth of 4.4 per cent. The 2027 to 2029 period is supported by stable labour market growth and an export recovery supported by LNG production. Residential construction is forecast to strengthen through the medium-term, supported by provincial, local, and federal government housing policies that are expected to boost the industries' productive capacity.

***U.S. Tariff Assumptions in the First Quarterly Report***

At the time of release, *Budget 2025* did not explicitly incorporate U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the rest of the world in the economic outlook (base case), since tariffs had not yet been enacted, and significant uncertainty persisted regarding their magnitude and timing. Instead, the Ministry of Finance completed an additional scenario for the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as retaliatory tariffs, using information up to February 4, 2025 (tariff scenario). The *First Quarterly Report* now explicitly incorporates tariffs into the economic outlook. The tariffs are assumed to remain in place for the duration of the forecast horizon (i.e. 2025 to 2029). The tariffs incorporated in the *First Quarterly Report* lead to a lower economic forecast than in the budget base case. The results are less severe than the tariff scenario as the current tariffs are less stringent than those assumed in the scenario.

The *First Quarterly Report* economic outlook includes all tariffs and supports announced and enacted as of August 1, 2025. Any policy changes or new tariffs announced after August 1 have not been incorporated into the outlook, including the removal of some of Canada's retaliatory tariffs announced on August 22 (effective September 1).

The tariffs leveraged by the U.S. on Canadian exports as of August 1, 2025 include the following:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 35 per cent
 (previously set at 25 per cent) on all Canadian exports to the U.S. that are not
 compliant with the Canada-United States-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (CUSMA),
 with a lower rate (10 per cent) for energy products and potash;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 50
 per cent on steel and aluminum products and content in derivatives;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 50
 per cent on copper products and content in derivatives;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 25
 per cent on automobiles, with tariffs applied to only the foreign-produced content of CUSMA-compliant
 automobiles; and

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 25
 per cent on automobile parts that are not compliant with CUSMA.

The share of Canadian exports to the U.S. that were compliant with CUSMA was roughly 38 per cent in 2024 but has steadily risen through 2025 as Canadian exporters seek to avoid costly tariffs. In June 2025, U.S. Census Bureau data indicated that over 90 per cent of the value of Canadian merchandise trade exported to the U.S. entered duty free.

In retaliation, the Government of Canada has levied the following tariffs on U.S. exports as of August 1, 2025:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 25
 per cent on roughly $60 billion worth of U.S. goods (note that some of these tariffs were
 removed after August 1); and

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· 25
 per cent on U.S. vehicles that are not compliant with CUSMA, and 25 per cent on
 the U.S. content of CUSMA-compliant vehicles.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 39 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

Beyond the level of tariffs, there have also been a number of programs announced by the federal government to help Canadian businesses, including supports for businesses and workers that are exposed to U.S. trade, tariff remissions for businesses that prove exceptional circumstances, and a 6-month exemption for U.S. goods that are imported for use in manufacturing, health care, public safety, and achieving national security objectives. The *First Quarterly Report* assumes that the federal government will support businesses using revenue generated from retaliatory tariffs.

B.C. is less exposed to U.S. trade than other provinces, with nearly half of all goods exports going to non-U.S. destinations. Compared with the scenario in *Budget 2025*, the scope of tariffs has decreased, since that scenario did not feature exemptions for exports compliant with CUSMA. Furthermore, the *Budget 2025* tariff scenario assumed retaliation on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods, which is greater than the scope of current retaliatory tariffs.

U.S. trade policy continues to be highly uncertain, with key aspects such as CUSMA-compliance rates, tariff-exposure, and tariff-levels all likely to change over the forecast horizon. Paired with the renegotiation of CUSMA and efforts to diversify trade to new foreign and domestic markets, B.C.'s outlook for international trade remains dynamic and uncertain. As the situation evolves, the Ministry will continue to incorporate new developments into the economic outlook.

***Labour Market***

Labour market growth has remained steady in 2025 despite easing immigration and international trade uncertainty. Overall, employment grew by 1.1 per cent (+33,500 jobs) year-to-date to July 2025 compared with the same period last year. Full-time employment increased by nearly 16,800 jobs and part-time employment increased by around 16,700 jobs on a year-to-date basis. During this period, the composition of net job creation was balanced between the private sector (+15,300 jobs), public sector (+10,200 jobs), and for self-employed workers (+8,000 jobs).

On an industry basis, year-to-date employment gains were concentrated in the service sector (+25,400 jobs), led by professional, scientific, and technical services (+14,800 jobs); wholesale and retail trade (+7,800 jobs); and transportation and warehousing (+5,800 jobs). Employment in the goods sector increased by 8,100 jobs compared with the same period last year, with growth in construction (+15,500 jobs) and manufacturing (+7,500 jobs) offsetting losses in forestry, fishing, mining, oil, and gas (-6,800 jobs) and agriculture (-5,500 jobs).

The provincial unemployment rate has risen, as labour force growth outpaced job gains. B.C.'s unemployment rate was 5.9 per cent in July 2025 and averaged 6.0 per cent year-to-date, 0.8 percentage points below the national average. Meanwhile, the job vacancy rate declined compared to the first five months of 2024, falling to 3.1 per cent in April and May 2025, its lowest level since 2016.

40 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Chart 2.2 B.C. Employment**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp05img03.jpg)

The size of B.C.'s labour force increased by 1.8 per cent year-to-date to July 2025, slower than the 2.7 per cent annual growth in 2024. Landed immigrants accounted for the majority of the growth in the labour force so far this year, with the province experiencing a net loss of labour force members born in Canada. B.C.'s labour force participation rate averaged 65.1 per cent, down 0.6 percentage points from first seven months of 2024. The labour force participation rate for the prime-age group has been mostly unchanged over the first seven months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, but the average participation rate among the 15 to 24 years age group has fallen by over three percentage points over the same period.

Employee compensation (i.e., aggregate wages, salaries, and employers' social contributions) in B.C. increased by 3.4 per cent year-to-date to March 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, reflecting a combination of job gains and rising wages. So far this year, the average hourly wage rate rose by 3.3 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2024. On average, wages grew faster than the consumer price index for B.C., which increased by 2.3 per cent over the first seven months of 2025.

*Outlook*

In the near-term, decreased immigration levels and international trade disruptions are expected to slow employment growth. The Ministry forecasts employment in B.C. to increase by 1.3 per cent in 2025 (approximately +37,900 jobs), followed by annual growth of 0.6 per cent in 2026 (approximately +16,700 jobs). Over the medium-term, employment growth is forecast to average 1.0 per cent annually.

The province's unemployment rate is expected to average 6.1 per cent in 2025 and 6.0 per cent in 2026, as slower employment growth is offset by low migration and population growth. B.C.'s unemployment rate is forecast to trend down over the medium-term to 5.5 per cent in 2029, as trade disruption is expected to stabilize and employment growth improves.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 41 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

Employee compensation is expected to rise by 4.0 per cent in 2025, and 3.7 per cent in 2026. Over the balance of the forecast horizon, employee compensation is projected to grow by between 3.6 per cent and 3.9 per cent annually.

***Demographics***

On April 1, 2025, B.C.'s population was 5.72 million people, up 0.9 per cent from the same date in 2024. During the January to March (first quarter) period of 2025, the province experienced a net outflow of 1,385 migrants, down from an inflow of 40,149 people over the same period of 2024. This follows years of significant population growth.

Underlying the decrease in net migration in the first quarter was lower net international migration (from +42,199 persons to +251 persons). The decrease in net international migration was a result of a significant decline in the number of net non-permanent (temporary) residents from +28,136 persons to -10,921 persons. The change from net inflow to outflow was largely driven by a decline in quarterly net temporary work permit holders from +18,933 to -1,743, and an accelerated outflow of study permit holders from -2,275 to -11,742. Overall, the decrease in international migration to B.C. and other provinces reflects lower immigration targets for permanent residents and new admission targets for non-permanent residents introduced in the federal government's 2025-2027 *Immigration Levels Plan* (ILP) announced in October 2024.

A net loss of interprovincial migrants (-1,636 persons) also contributed to the overall outflow of migrants from B.C. in the first quarter of 2025. The province has experienced an outflow of interprovincial migrants in the last seven consecutive quarters.

*Outlook*

B.C.'s July 1 population is projected to increase by 0.4 per cent in 2025, decline by 0.2 per cent in 2026, and then rise by 1.0 per cent on average over the 2027 to 2029 period.

B.C. is expected to experience a total net migration loss of about 4,400 persons in 2025 and a small gain of 5,700 persons in 2026. The moderation in the total net migration forecast largely reflects an expected net outflow of non-permanent residents between 2025 and 2026 due to restrictive ILP targets. The province is expected to continue experiencing a net loss of interprovincial migrants in 2025, before turning positive in 2026. From 2027 to 2029, total net migration is expected to stabilize and average around 67,200 persons. International migrants are expected to account for approximately 85 per cent of total migrants over the medium-term.

42 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

***Consumer Spending and Inflation***

Consumer spending has been strong so far this year, reflecting lower inflation, lower interest rates, the temporary federal GST/HST holiday, and a rush to purchase goods prior to the implementation of U.S. tariffs. Year-to-date to May, B.C. nominal retail sales increased by 6.6 per cent, while consumer prices rose by 2.4 per cent, indicating growth in both sales volumes and prices. Year-to-date sales increases were led by higher spending at motor vehicles and parts dealers (+17.1 per cent) and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book and miscellaneous retailers (+25.5 per cent). Partially offsetting these increases was a decline in spending at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (-6.5 per cent), and at furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers (-7.4 per cent).

Sales at food services and drinking places in B.C., a component of the service sector, rose by 6.0 per cent year-to-date to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

Consumer sentiment in B.C. has been heavily weighed down by trade uncertainty and tariffs. The Conference Board of Canada's consumer confidence index for B.C. averaged 63.5 points in the first eight months of 2025, compared with 76.6 points during the same period in 2024, and well below historical averages. The Bank of Canada's latest *Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations* released in July 2025 finds similar concerns at the national level, as sentiment remains weak due to uncertainty related to the trade conflict and consumer expectations of high inflation and a weak labour market.

**Chart 2.3 B.C. Retail Sales**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img01.jpg)

Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 43 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

Inflation in B.C. has continued to moderate as the price growth of services gradually eased while inflation for goods remained subdued. Year-to-date to July, inflation was 2.3 per cent in 2025 compared with 2.8 per cent in the same period of 2024. Price growth this year continues to be led by shelter (+3.4 per cent) and food (+2.8 per cent). While shelter inflation remains above the headline rate, it eased to 2.7 per cent in July, driven by lower price growth for owned accommodation costs. Easing shelter inflation reflects slower growth in mortgage interest costs, new housing supply, weaker population growth, and lower natural gas costs. Price inflation for goods has been volatile, as upward pressure from tariffs and trade uncertainty has been partially offset by the temporary federal GST/HST tax break and the removal of the B.C. consumer carbon tax.

**Chart 2.4 B.C. Inflation**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img02.jpg)

Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics

*Outlook*

The Ministry forecasts that real household consumption will increase by 3.0 per cent in 2025, supported by spending on both goods and services, followed by a 1.5 per cent gain in 2026. Annual growth is then expected to be between 2.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent over the 2027 to 2029 period.

After a strong start to 2025, nominal retail sales are expected to ease later this year and into 2026, as the effects of trade conflict, uncertainty, and lower population growth weigh on consumer demand for goods. The Ministry forecasts nominal retail sales to grow by 5.2 per cent in 2025, 2.7 per cent in 2026, and by 3.6 per cent on average over the 2027 to 2029 period.

Consumer price growth is expected to remain relatively constant, with trade conflict and uncertainty continuing to keep prices elevated in the near-term. Consumer price inflation in B.C. is forecast to be 2.3 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, then average 2.0 per cent for the balance of the forecast horizon, as trade conflict pressures ease and monetary policy works to bring inflation down to the Bank of Canada's target of around 2 per cent.

44 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

***Housing***

Homebuilding has trended lower so far this year, with weaker demand weighing on new construction. Reduced migration levels from the *2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan*, lagged effects of elevated interest rates, affordability concerns, and economic uncertainty have eased housing demand in the near-term, resulting in uncertainty over financing and pre-sales for developers. Housing starts decreased 3.3 per cent year-to-date to July 2025; however, housing starts averaged 45,443 annualized units over this period, above the ten-year historical average of 43,185 units, and were high in June and July. In areas with 10,000 or more people, single-unit housing starts fell by 10.1 per cent over this period, while multiple-unit housing starts decreased by 3.6 per cent. Among Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) in B.C., homebuilding in the first seven months of 2025 was lower than the same period in 2024 in Vancouver (-5.2 per cent) and Kelowna (-35.6 per cent) while homebuilding was higher in Victoria (+29.6 per cent) and Abbotsford (+145.1 per cent). Home completions were mostly positive year-to-date to July 2025, with large increases in Abbotsford (+20.8 per cent), Vancouver (+24.8 per cent), and Kelowna (+58.7 per cent) outweighing a decrease in Victoria (-27.4 per cent).

**Chart 2.5 B.C. Housing Starts**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img03.jpg)

Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; Haver Analytics <br> \* Historical average from Jan. 2015 to Dec. 2024

So far this year, B.C.'s housing market activity has been subdued as economic uncertainty and a pause in Bank of Canada rate cuts limit demand. Year-to-date to July, MLS home sales decreased by 5.6 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2024, and averaged 5,741 units, below the 2022 to 2024 average of 6,325 units. The decline was concentrated in the Fraser Valley (-20.1 per cent) and Greater Vancouver (-11.4 per cent), while rising sales activity in Victoria (+6.9 per cent) and Okanagan-Mainline (+7.5 per cent) provided some offset.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 45 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Chart 2.6 B.C. Home Sales and Price**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img04.jpg)

Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Haver Analytics

Year-to-date to July, the MLS average home sale price decreased 3.7 per cent compared to the same period last year. The MLS average home sale price fell sharply in the first four months of 2025, but has since recovered some of the decline. MLS composite benchmark house prices (which account for differences in dwelling types and quality in each region) trended in different directions across major markets in B.C. on a year-to-date basis. Declines were seen in the Fraser Valley (-3.7 per cent) and Greater Vancouver (-1.4 per cent), while prices increased in Victoria (+3.1 per cent) and Okanagan Valley (+2.4 per cent).

**Chart 2.7 Greater Vancouver HPI Benchmark Price**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img05.jpg)

Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Haver Analytics

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Economic Review and Outlook

Residential building permits, a leading indicator of home construction, have been above historical levels in the first half of 2025. Year-to-date to June, the value of residential building permits increased 16.1 per cent compared with the same period in 2024, and the number of residential units permitted increased 14.9 per cent. The increase was driven by higher multiple-unit dwelling permits, which were partially offset by lower single-unit dwelling permits. Among CMAs, building permits were driven by increases in Abbotsford, Vancouver, and Kelowna, while Victoria was unchanged.

*Outlook*

The Ministry expects home sales activity to remain subdued in 2025. The Ministry forecasts unit home sales to decrease by 1.9 per cent in 2025, averaging below historical levels, and rebound by 12.3 per cent in 2026 as trade uncertainty eases and households take advantage of federal mortgage rule changes introduced last year. Home sales are expected to average 2.5 per cent growth annually in the 2027 to 2029 period. The average home sales price in B.C. is expected to fall by 3.1 per cent in 2025, followed by growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, and then grow by 2.6 per cent annually on average in the medium-term. Putting unit sales and prices together, the total value of home sales is forecast to fall by 4.9 per cent in 2025, rebound by 16.0 per cent in 2026, and then average 5.2 per cent growth over the 2027 to 2029 period.

The Ministry expects B.C. housing starts to total approximately 43,150 units in 2025, below the high levels of recent years but consistent with the ten-year average. Home construction is then expected to remain steady at approximately 43,500 units 2026 and then gradually increase from 2027 to 2029, averaging around 48,500 annual units over this horizon. Lower immigration levels and population growth are expected to decrease demand for new home construction, while support from private and public sector investment, legislative actions to encourage homebuilding, and federal mortgage rule changes are expected to support housing starts.

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Economic Review and Outlook

***Business and Government***

The total value of non-residential building permitting has increased through the first six months of the year, increasing 3.7 per cent compared with the same period in 2024. The increase was driven by higher permit issuance for institutional and governmental building (+66.0 per cent), while declines in commercial building (-3.4 per cent) and industrial building issuance (-58.4 per cent) offset most of the gains.

Small business confidence in B.C. has been volatile in 2025 and followed international trade developments closely. After broad-based U.S. tariffs were imposed on Canada in March 2025, B.C. small business confidence levels fell to their lowest since March 2020. By June, confidence had recovered to the point that the number of B.C. small business owners expecting weaker performance over the year was similar to those expecting stronger performance. Nationally, the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses highlighted insufficient demand, both foreign and domestic, as the primary limitation on sales or production growth for small businesses, while labour shortages have eased.

B.C.'s international tourism sector has been steady in 2025, with travelers entering B.C. increasing by 0.3 per cent year-to-date to May 2025 compared to the same period of 2024 and averaging 692,045 international travelers per month. The number of U.S. visitors grew 1.7 per cent over this period, but growth was driven by near-record highs in January, with visitors trending downward since then. The number of non-U.S. visitors fell 4.6 per cent year-to-date to May 2025, and continues to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

*Outlook*

The Ministry forecasts total real investment in B.C. to increase by 3.4 per cent in 2025 and 2.2 per cent in 2026, supported by strong government investment and lower borrowing costs. The Ministry forecasts moderate growth in the medium-term, averaging 0.8 per cent annually over the 2027 to 2029 period.

In the near-term, real business investment is projected to decrease by 1.3 per cent in 2025 mainly reflecting declines in machinery and equipment investment and residential construction. In 2026, real business investment is projected to experience some recovery and grow 0.9 per cent as businesses take advantage of lower borrowing costs and renew spending as the global trade conflict begins to stabilize. Over the 2027 to 2029 period, real business investment growth averages 1.5 per cent annually, supported by overall growth in all categories.

Real expenditure on goods and services by all levels of government is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2025 and then ease to 0.7 per cent growth in 2026. The Ministry expects real government spending to increase by 0.8 per cent on average annually over the 2027 to 2029 period.

The Ministry expects nominal net operating surplus of corporations (an approximation of corporate profits) to increase by 1.5 per cent in 2025 and by 3.6 per cent in 2026, supported by easing operating costs and federal government transfers to businesses. Net operating surplus is expected to grow between 2.8 per cent and 7.9 per cent annually over the 2027 to 2029 period.

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Economic Review and Outlook

***External Trade and Commodity Markets***

So far this year, the global trade conflict and uncertainty have driven fluctuations in B.C. merchandise exports. During the first six months of 2025, the value of B.C. goods exports decreased by 0.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. Exports were elevated from January to March as trade partners stockpiled goods in anticipation of U.S. tariffs, while exports experienced a steep decline in April as tariffs took effect and stockpiling eased. Low metallurgical coal prices have also weighed on B.C.'s exports to non-U.S. destinations, decreasing the value of exports to Asia. Year-to-date performance across industries was mixed. The decrease was driven by exports of other energy products (-20.5 per cent, primarily metallurgical coal) and forestry products and building and packing materials (-3.3 per cent). Meanwhile, gains were observed in exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals (+24.6 per cent), natural gas and related products (+23.4 per cent), and electronic and electrical equipment and parts (+21.0 per cent).

Merchandise exports to the U.S. accounted for 53.9 per cent of B.C.'s total goods exports in the first six months of 2025. During this period, goods exports to the U.S. rose by 3.2 per cent, largely due to an increase in exports of energy products (+6.2 per cent), with large gains in natural gas and related products offsetting losses among other energy products. Meanwhile, total goods exports to non-U.S. destinations decreased by 4.8 per cent, led by lower exports to Japan (-26.1 per cent), India (-56.8 per cent) and South Korea (-21.3 per cent), partially offset by higher exports to China (+21.3 per cent). Lower exports to non-U.S. destinations were driven by a decline in the value of energy product exports, particularly coal exports to Japan, South Korea, and India, due to low metallurgical coal prices.

B.C.'s manufacturing shipments increased by 0.2 per cent year-to-date to June 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, mainly due to increased shipments of primary metal products (+14.6 per cent) and food manufacturing (+6.2 per cent), offsetting declines in transportation equipment products (-13.0 per cent).

**Chart 2.8 B.C. Exports**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img06.jpg)

Source: BC Stats

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Economic Review and Outlook

The price of Western spruce-pine-fir (SPF) 2x4 lumber rose by 17.8 per cent in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, averaging $482 US/000 board feet. Reduced production, trade uncertainty, and anticipation of additional U.S. softwood lumber duties in July outweighed weak U.S. demand and housing starts, resulting in strong price growth so far this year.

Oil prices have fallen in 2025, with stronger than expected global supply (particularly among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and softening global demand outweighing risks from geopolitical conflicts and trade uncertainty. In the first seven months of 2025, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price averaged $68.25 per barrel, down 14.6 per cent from the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the plant inlet price of natural gas increased 18.0 per cent year-to-date and averaged $0.96 C/GJ in the first seven months of 2025. Despite the increase, natural gas prices remain low due to high North American supply.

The average price of metallurgical coal fell by 31.8 per cent year-to-date to July 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, reflecting high global supply and weak industrial activity in Asia. Prices for lead (- 7.7 per cent) and molybdenum (-0.8 per cent) were also down over the same period. Meanwhile, the price of safe-haven commodities such as gold and silver increased significantly by 39.5 per cent and 25.7 per cent respectively, along with increases in the price of zinc (+3.0 per cent) and copper (+3.7 per cent).

*Outlook*

Real exports of goods and services are forecast to decline by 0.7 per cent in 2025, reflecting the direct impact of U.S. tariffs and continued global trade uncertainty. In 2026, real exports of goods and services are projected to increase by 2.9 per cent, and range between 3.2 per cent and 3.8 per cent growth annually over the 2027 to 2029 period. Next year, the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on B.C. exports is expected to persist, while LNG Canada provides some offset as it reaches full export-capacity in 2026. In the latter years of the forecast horizon, LNG production from Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG will provide support to the outlook.

The price of lumber is forecast to average $482 US/000 board feet in 2025 and remain stable at $485 US/000 board feet in 2026, $490 US/000 board feet in 2027, and then average $495 US/000 board feet in 2028 and 2029. The plant inlet price for natural gas is expected to average $1.21 C/GJ in 2025/26, $1.95 C/GJ in 2026/27, and $1.99 C/GJ in 2027/28.

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Economic Review and Outlook

**Risks to the Economic Outlook**

B.C.'s economic outlook faces uncertainties concerning future developments in the ongoing global trade conflict, population growth and immigration levels, inflation, and disruptions from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and climate-related factors. Upsides to B.C.'s economy over the forecast horizon include interest rates easing quicker than expected, potential for increased interprovincial trade as provinces work towards removing trade barriers, and new private sector investments in major capital projects. Downside risks to B.C.'s economic outlook include:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· escalation
 in the magnitude and scope of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, impacting trade flows, employment,
 business investment, inflation, and consumer spending;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· persistent
 uncertainty in global trade policy that discourages business investment and firm growth,
 potentially weighing on employment, consumer spending, and housing;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· lower immigration levels and an aging population that limit the supply of labour, potentially increasing service delivery costs,
 impacting business operations and exacerbating fluctuations in economic activity;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· slower
 economic activity due to spending restraint by all levels of government;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· mortgage
 renewals at higher rates weighing on disposable income and the housing market;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· resurgent
 inflation leading to elevated interest rates over a longer period, weighing on consumer spending
 and business investment;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· severe climate-related events disrupting the lives and livelihoods of British Columbians, destroying productive capital, and impacting
 economic activity;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· weaker global economic activity and volatile prices for B.C.'s major commodity exports due to geopolitical conflicts and
 economic challenges in Europe and Asia; and

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;· timing
 of investment, operations and exports related to the LNG projects in the province, similar
 to the risks that exist for other major capital projects.

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Economic Review and Outlook

**External Outlook**

The global economic outlook has softened in 2025, as tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, rising public debt, and the lagged impact of high interest rates in some countries continue to weigh on growth. Much of the recent economic momentum appears temporary, driven by front-loaded trade ahead of tariffs, with economic growth expected to slow later in the year. Among most of B.C.'s key global trading partners, growth has also weakened in 2025 compared with expectations in *Budget 2025*. In Canada, early-year momentum was supported by rising exports, however, this has been offset by a softening labour market and subdued housing activity. The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing in the first half of the year, even though the second quarter posted stronger-than-expected growth. Much of that growth was driven by a drop in imports rather than strength in domestic demand, as consumer and business activity showed signs of cooling in response to trade disruptions and persistent inflation. In Asia, China's economy has faced challenges from weak consumer spending and a prolonged property market downturn, while Japan's economy has seen modest growth, impacted by moderately high inflation and a global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the euro zone experienced modest but better-than-expected growth in the first half of the year as inflationary pressures eased, though ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty continue to present headwinds to the outlook.

***Canada***

The Canadian economy grew by 2.2 per cent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2025 (January to March), following growth of 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October to December). Real GDP growth in the first quarter was driven by a 6.7 per cent increase in exports of goods and services, primarily due to higher exports of passenger vehicles and industrial machinery, equipment, and parts, ahead of U.S. tariffs. A buildup of inventories also contributed to growth; meanwhile household consumption growth slowed, partly due to lower spending on passenger vehicles. First quarter growth was moderated by higher imports and weak resale activity in residential structures. On a year-to-date basis, Canada's real GDP was 2.3 per cent higher in the first quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024.

**Chart 2.9 Canadian Real GDP**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp6img07.jpg)

Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics

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Economic Review and Outlook

Following growth of 1.9 per cent in 2024, Canadian employment continued to expand in 2025, though at a slower pace. Year-to-date to July 2025, employment was up by 1.6 per cent (+336,000 jobs) compared with the same period last year. The unemployment rate gradually increased this year and was 6.9 per cent in July 2025, reflecting the labour force growing faster than employment. Canada's labour force grew 2.3 per cent through the first seven months of 2025, down from 3.0 per cent annual growth seen in 2024, as population growth continues to boost the labour force but to a lesser degree. Meanwhile, year-to-date to May 2025, job vacancies have fallen 19.8 per cent compared with the same period last year.

So far in 2025, total MLS home sales in Canada declined 1.6 per cent year-to-date to July, after 7.9 per cent annual growth in 2024. Home sales were subdued for most of the year compared to historical averages. Soft demand and an increase in listings have limited price growth in the first seven months of 2025, resulting in the national average home sale price declining 1.5 per cent year-to-date to July 2025.

Housing starts averaged 258,848 annualized units in the first seven months of 2025, up 3.0 per cent compared to the same period last year. Despite pressures from earlier elevated interest rates, skilled-labour shortages and increasing construction costs, national housing starts remained elevated, supported by strong population growth in prior years. Within housing categories, multiple-unit housing starts increased by 4.8 per cent year-to-date to July 2025, while single-unit housing starts were up 1.4 per cent. Regionally, the increase in housing starts in 2025 so far has been primarily driven by more construction in the urban centres of Montreal (+48.3 per cent), Edmonton (+32.6 per cent), and Calgary (+21.5 per cent), partially offset by declines in Toronto (-48.5 per cent) and Vancouver (-5.2 per cent).

Consumer price inflation in Canada continued to ease in 2025 reflecting a slow but steady return to historical norms. In July 2025, consumer prices rose 1.7 per cent, down from an average of 2.4 per cent in 2024. Since the start of 2025, inflation has fluctuated between 1.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent, within the Bank of Canada's (BoC) target range, but persistent price pressures remain. Food prices (+3.3 per cent) put upward pressure on national inflation in July, while consumer energy prices remained below their 2024 levels, reflecting the removal of the consumer carbon tax on April 1, 2025.

Canadian nominal retail sales rose 5.0 per cent year-to-date to May 2025 compared to the same period last year, reflecting broad based gains led by sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers, while in real terms (which exclude price effects), sales were up 3.2 per cent.

The value of Canadian merchandise exports fell in the second quarter (April to June) following a large increase in the first quarter in advance of U.S. tariffs coming into effect, and are up year-to-date to June 2025 (+3.1 per cent) compared with the same period last year. Gains in exports of metal and non-metallic minerals (+17.1 per cent), consumer goods (+5.1 per cent), and energy products (+1.5 per cent) were partially offset by declines in exports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (-8.7 per cent), and motor vehicles and parts (-3.8 per cent). Meanwhile, service exports fell 1.8 per cent year-to-date to June, primarily due to a decline in travel service exports.

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Economic Review and Outlook

*Outlook*

The July 2025 *Consensus Economics* (*Consensus*) forecasts Canadian real GDP to rise by 1.2 per cent in 2025 (0.5 percentage points lower than the January 2025 survey) and by 1.0 per cent in 2026.

**Table 2.2 Canadian Real GDP Forecast: Consensus versus B.C. Ministry of Finance**

---

| | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 |
|  | Per cent change in real GDP | Per cent change in real GDP | Per cent change in real GDP | Per cent change in real GDP |
| B.C. Ministry of Finance |  | 1.2 |  | 0.9 |
| *Consensus Economics* (July 2025\*) |  | 1.2 |  | 1 |

---

*\* Comparable month to B.C. Ministry of Finance forecast.*

Ongoing trade tensions and shifting policies are weighing on exports and business confidence, and reducing growth prospects. In the July *Monetary Policy Report*, the BoC noted that U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty are likely to slow Canadian economic growth. The Ministry assumes the Canadian economy will grow by 1.2 per cent in 2025, a prudent 0.9 per cent in 2026, and then average 1.7 per cent annual growth over the 2027 to 2029 period.

**Chart 2.10 Consensus Outlook for Canada in 2025**

**Forecast annual per cent <br> change in Canadian real GDP, 2025**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15imgsp073.jpg)

Source: Consensus Economics

The chart above represents forecasts for Canadian real GDP growth in 2025 as polled on specific dates. For example, forecasters surveyed on January 8, 2024 had an average 2025 Canadian real GDP growth forecast of 1.9 per cent, while on August 11, 2025 they forecast 2025 Canadian real GDP to grow by 1.2 per cent.

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Economic Review and Outlook

***United States***

U.S. economic activity rebounded in the second quarter of 2025, with real GDP rising at an annualized rate of 3.0 per cent after a 0.5 per cent contraction in the first quarter. Much of the second quarter's rebound was driven by falling imports (-30.3 per cent) along with a modest increase in consumer spending (+1.4 per cent). The decrease in imports largely reversed the pre-tariff increase in imports (+37.9 per cent) in the first quarter. Overall growth in the second quarter was dampened by decreases in exports of goods (-5.0 per cent) and inventories compared with the previous quarter, both of which contributed positively in the previous quarter. Overall, U.S. real GDP has increased by 2.0 per cent year-to-date to the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024.

**Chart 2.11 U.S. Real GDP**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15imgsp074.jpg)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics

The U.S. labour market expanded at a slower pace than Canada over the first seven months of 2025, with nonfarm employment rising by an average of approximately 85,000 jobs each month. This represented a 1.1 per cent (+1.7 million jobs) increase in employment year-to-date to July. The unemployment rate was 4.2 per cent in July 2025, and was 0.2 percentage points higher on average in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9 per cent year-to-date to July. Meanwhile, the U.S. labour force participation rate averaged 62.4 per cent year-to-date to July 2025, a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

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Economic Review and Outlook

U.S. housing market activity has been weighed down by persistently high interest rates and growing economic uncertainty, with existing home sales reaching a nine-month low in June. Year-to-date to June 2025, existing home sales saw a 0.6 per cent decline, while new single-family home sales decreased by 4.1 per cent compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date to June 2025, median prices increased 2.5 per cent for existing homes and declined slightly (-1.4 per cent) for new single-family homes. U.S. homebuilding increased 1.4 per cent in the first seven months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, driven by a 17.9 per cent increase in multiple-unit housing starts, while a decline in single-unit housing starts (-4.3 per cent) provided some offset. U.S. residential building permits, an indicator for future building activity, declined by 3.9 per cent in the first seven months of 2025 compared with the same period last year.

**Chart 2.12 U.S. Housing Starts**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15imgsp075.jpg)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Haver Analytics

Nominal retail sales in the U.S. were up by 4.3 per cent year-to-date to July 2025, compared with the first seven months of 2024, supported by higher sales from non-store retailers as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers. However, these sales (measured in nominal dollars) were somewhat inflated due to high prices and real retail sales grew at a slower rate of 1.6 per cent in the first seven months of 2025. U.S. consumer price inflation remained within the 2.3 to 3.0 per cent range in 2025 and was 2.7 per cent in July 2025. So far in 2025, energy prices (specifically gasoline) have declined, while shelter inflation remains elevated. The Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index has declined in five of the last seven months and overall U.S. consumer sentiment was lower than last year.

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Economic Review and Outlook

*Outlook*

In July 2025, the *Consensus* survey projected U.S. economic growth of 1.5 per cent in 2025, down from 2.2 per cent in the January 2025 *Consensus* survey. Meanwhile for 2026, *Consensus* forecasts growth of 1.7 per cent.

**Table 2.3 U.S. Real GDP Forecast: Consensus versus B.C. Ministry of Finance**

---

| | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 |
|  | Per cent change in real GDP | Per cent change in real GDP | Per cent change in real GDP | Per cent change in real GDP |
| B.C. Ministry of Finance |  | 1.6 |  | 1.4 |
| *Consensus Economics* (July 2025\*) |  | 1.5 |  | 1.7 |

---

*\* Comparable month to B.C. Ministry of Finance forecast.*

The U.S. economy is showing signs of cooling in 2025, with consumer and business activity dampened by ongoing trade disruptions and elevated tariffs. The U.S. Federal Reserve's continued hold on interest rate cuts and ongoing inflation uncertainty continue to weigh on growth in 2025, while a modest rise in unemployment and fiscal imbalances add to the downside risks. The Ministry's assumption for U.S. real GDP growth is slightly higher than the July *Consensus* for 2025 at 1.6 per cent, reflecting the second quarter figures that were released after the *Consensus* publication. Given uncertainty in the outlook, the Ministry prudently assumes that U.S. real GDP will grow by 1.4 per cent in 2026, with growth averaging around 1.9 per cent annually over the medium-term.

**Chart 2.13 Consensus Outlook for the U.S. in 2025**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15imgsp076.jpg)

Source: Consensus Economics

The chart above represents forecasts for U.S. real GDP growth in 2025 as polled on specific dates. For example, forecasters surveyed on January 8, 2024 had an average 2025 U.S. real GDP growth forecast of 1.7 per cent, while on August 11, 2025 they forecast 2025 U.S. real GDP to grow by 1.6 per cent.

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Economic Review and Outlook

***Asia***

China's economic growth slowed in the second quarter of 2025, with real GDP rising by an annualized 4.3 per cent, down from 5.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Growth was supported by strong industrial output and robust export activity, as firms front-loaded shipments ahead of U.S. tariffs. However, weak consumer spending, falling property investment, and persistent deflationary pressures continue to weigh on domestic demand. Despite fiscal and monetary support, such as infrastructure spending, subsidies, and interest rate cuts, economic momentum remains muted. Elevated tariffs have further disrupted export flows, and uncertainty around external demand continues to weigh on China's economy. Overall, China's real GDP grew by 5.3 per cent year-to-date to the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

Japan's economy has seen modest growth, tempered by moderately high inflation, a global economic slowdown, and pressure from U.S. tariffs, which have notably impacted the country's auto sector. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.6 per cent increase in the first quarter. The second quarter increase was driven by a positive contribution from exports and non-residential investment. Year-to-date, real GDP was 1.5 per cent higher compared with the first half of 2024. Despite inflation remaining above the 2 per cent target, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady at 0.5 per cent at its July 31 meeting, given heightened geopolitical uncertainty over trade policies and its impact on global activity and prices.

*Outlook*

The July 2025 *Consensus* forecasts China's real GDP to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026. Although the economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, supported by front-loaded exports and government subsidies, ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, weak consumer confidence, and a prolonged property market downturn are expected to weigh on growth in the second half of 2025. The Ministry forecasts China's economy to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2025, slightly above the *Consensus* projection, reflecting the strong first and second quarter figures. This is followed by a prudent forecast of 4.0 per cent in 2026. For the 2027 to 2029 period, the Ministry anticipates average annual growth of 4.0 per cent.

The July 2025 *Consensus* projects Japan's real GDP growth at 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 0.7 per cent in 2026. While recent data show modest gains in consumer spending and some resilience in the manufacturing sector, uncertainty persists due to sticky inflation, weakening exports, and heightened trade tensions with the U.S. Given these risks, the Ministry assumes a modest pace of growth in Japan's economy, forecasting real GDP to grow by 0.8 per cent in 2025, a prudent 0.5 per cent in 2026, and averaging 0.5 per cent annual growth over the 2027 to 2029 period.

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Economic Review and Outlook

***Europe***

Euro zone economic growth in the first half of 2025 remained modest, expanding by 0.5 per cent (annualized) in the second quarter, following a 2.3 per cent increase in the first quarter. Among the larger member states, Spain and France were the main contributors to the second quarter gain, with Spain's growth driven by strong consumer spending, a rebound in business investment and rising exports. A decline in economic growth from Germany, Europe's largest economy, contributed to the overall moderate growth for the euro zone, following modest growth in the first quarter. Euro zone real GDP grew by 1.5 per cent year-to-date to the second quarter of 2025.

Despite inflation remaining at or below the European Central Bank (ECB) target in June and July, the ECB left interest rates unchanged at 2 per cent on July 24, following seven consecutive cuts. As of June 2025, inflation in the euro zone continued to decline, reaching 2.0 per cent (in line with ECB's target). Meanwhile, the euro zone's unemployment rate was 6.2 per cent in June, remaining near its lowest level since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

*Outlook*

The July 2025 *Consensus* forecasted that the euro zone economy would grow by 1.1 per cent in both 2025 and 2026. Real GDP is expected to see modest gains, supported by easing price pressures and lower energy costs. However, risks remain from ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, and a stronger euro weighing on exports. The Ministry forecasts euro zone real GDP to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025, followed by a prudent 0.9 per cent in 2026, and an average of 1.2 per cent annually over the medium-term.

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Economic Review and Outlook

**Financial Markets**

***Interest Rates***

Following rate cuts in 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC), along with other central banks, have generally held interest rates steady in 2025. The decision to hold rates reflects a concern that tariffs, and the associated uncertainty, could lead to higher import prices and inflation. However, private sector forecasters expect rate cuts to resume in the second half of 2025.

In July 2025, the Fed kept the range for the U.S. federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent, where it has been since December 2024. The Fed had lowered the rate by a full percentage point in late 2024 as inflation declined. More recently, it has pointed to moderate economic growth, low unemployment, and still-elevated inflation as reasons for maintaining its current stance. The Fed also reiterated its readiness to adjust policy if needed to meet its inflation and employment objectives.

The BoC has held the target for the overnight rate steady at 2.75 per cent since March 2025, following cuts totaling 2.25 percentage points between June 2024 and March 2025. In July 2025, the BoC cited ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs, the Canadian economy's resilience to trade disruptions so far, and underlying inflationary pressures as key reasons for pausing further rate cuts. The gap between the BoC overnight rate and the U.S. federal funds rate is now 1.75 percentage points, reflecting underlying differences between the United States and Canada in inflation expectations and economic activity. The BoC indicated that further interest rate cuts may be necessary if economic weakness continues to push inflation down and trade-related price pressures remain contained.

**Chart 2.14 Interest Rate Forecasts**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15imgsp077.jpg)

Sources: Bank of Canada; U.S. Federal Reserve; and B.C. Ministry of Finance forecasts.

60 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

*Outlook*

Canada and the United States have stated that they will adjust monetary policy in response to evolving risks, amid expectations of slower economic activity in 2025 for both countries. Private sector analysts are forecasting further rate cuts by the BoC and the Fed in the second half of 2025. Based on the average of six private sector forecasts as of July 16, 2025, the Ministry assumes the U.S. federal funds rate will average 4.45 per cent in 2025 and 3.65 per cent in 2026. By comparison, the BoC's overnight target rate is expected to average 2.72 per cent in 2025 and 2.35 per cent in 2026.

**Table 2.4 Private Sector Canadian Interest Rate Forecasts**

---

| | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | 3-month Treasury Bill | 3-month Treasury Bill | 10-year Government Bond | 10-year Government Bond |
| Average annual interest rate (per cent) | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 |
| BMO | 2.55 | 1.96 | 3.25 | 3.23 |
| CIBC | 2.59 | 2.19 | 3.20 | 3.46 |
| National Bank | 2.59 | 2.28 | 3.28 | 3.31 |
| RBC | 2.72 | 2.70 | 3.26 | 3.46 |
| Scotiabank | 2.70 | 2.47 | 3.26 | 3.18 |
| TD | 2.55 | 2.25 | 3.21 | 3.16 |
| **Average (as of July 16, 2025)** | **2.62** | **2.31** | **3.25** | **3.30** |

---

According to the same six private sector forecasters, the Canadian three-month Treasury bill interest rate is expected to average 2.62 per cent in 2025 and 2.31 per cent in 2026. Meanwhile, the 10-year Government of Canada bond rate is assumed to be 3.25 per cent in 2025 and 3.30 per cent in 2026.

***Exchange Rates***

The Canadian dollar exchange rate is slightly down against the US dollar so far in 2025 compared with 2024. It averaged 71.3 US cents between January and July 2025, compared to 73.5 US cents in the first seven months of 2024, amid tariff-related uncertainty. The decline was primarily influenced by the interest rate and economic activity differentials between the two countries. Since January 2025, the Canadian dollar has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, supported by Canada's stronger relative export position in the U.S. market compared to other countries, even amid tariffs.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 61 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Chart 2.15 Private Sector Expectations for the Canadian Dollar**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15imgsp078.jpg)

Sources: Bank of Canada and B.C. Ministry of Finance forecasts.

\* Based on the average of private sector forecasts. *First Quarterly Report 2025* as of July 16, 2025, and *Budget 2025* as of January 9, 2025.

*Outlook*

Based on the average of six private sector forecasts as of July 16, 2025, the Ministry assumes the Canadian dollar will average 72.1 US cents in 2025 and 74.9 US cents in 2026.

**Table 2.5 Private Sector Exchange Rate Forecasts**

---

| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
| Average annual exchange rate (US cents/Canadian $) | 2025 | 2026 |
| BMO | 72.3 | 74.7 |
| CIBC | 72.1 | 73.9 |
| National Bank | 71.9 | 75.6 |
| RBC | 71.9 | 74.4 |
| Scotiabank | 72.4 | 76.5 |
| TD | 72.0 | 74.3 |
| **Average (as of July 16, 2025)** | **72.1** | **74.9** |

---

62 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Table 2.6.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): British Columbia**

---

| | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast |
|  | 2023 |<br>2024 <sup>e</sup> | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
| **Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**– Real (chained 2017 $ billions)** | **333.1** | **337.1** | **342.2** | **346.6** | **353.2** | **360.6** | **368.7** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**(% change)** | **2.4** | **1.2** | **1.5** | **1.3** | **1.9** | **2.1** | **2.2** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Nominal (current prices, $ billions) | 409.9 | 426.5 | 443.5 | 462.3 | 481.7 | 502.7 | 526 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– GDP price deflator (2017 = 100) | 123.1 | 126.5 | 129.6 | 133.4 | 136.4 | 139.4 | 142.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Real GDP per person (chained 2017 $) | 60218 | 59149 | 59817 | 60720 | 61409 | 61978 | 62636 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -0.8 | -1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Real GDP per employed person | -0.2 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| **Components of Real GDP at Market Prices (chained 2017 $ billions)** | **Components of Real GDP at Market Prices (chained 2017 $ billions)** | **Components of Real GDP at Market Prices (chained 2017 $ billions)** |  |  |  |  |  |
| Household expenditure on goods and services | 204.4 | 208.2 | 214.5 | 217.6 | 222.8 | 228 | 233.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Goods | 79.5 | 79.7 | 82.8 | 83.3 | 84.7 | 86.3 | 88 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Services | 125.1 | 128.7 | 131.9 | 134.5 | 138.3 | 141.8 | 145.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| NPISH<sup>1</sup> expenditure on goods and services | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Government expenditure on goods and services | 65.6 | 66.6 | 68.8 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 70 | 71 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 6.9 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Investment in fixed capital | 87.5 | 87.2 | 90.2 | 92.1 | 91.7 | 92.8 | 94.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.4 | 2.2 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| **Final domestic demand** | **362.8** | **367.5** | **379.1** | **385.0** | **389.6** | **396.7** | **404.9** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**(% change)** | **2.5** | **1.3** | **3.2** | **1.5** | **1.2** | **1.8** | **2.1** |
| Exports of goods and services | 121.8 | 124 | 123.2 | 126.7 | 131.4 | 135.7 | 140.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1.4 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Imports of goods and services | 155.8 | 155.9 | 160.8 | 165.5 | 168.5 | 172.8 | 177.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Inventory change | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Statistical discrepancy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| **Real GDP at market prices** | **333.1** | **337.1** | **342.2** | **346.6** | **353.2** | **360.6** | **368.7** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**(% change)** | **2.4** | **1.2** | **1.5** | **1.3** | **1.9** | **2.1** | **2.2** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Non-profit institutions serving households.

<sup>e</sup> B.C. Ministry of Finance estimate.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 63 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Table 2.6.2 Selected Nominal Income and Other Indicators: British Columbia**

---

| | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast |
|  | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
| Compensation of employees<sup>1</sup> ($ millions) | 203540 | 216317 | 224969 | 233276 | 241773 | 251200 | 261068 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 7.5 | 6.3 | 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Household income ($ millions) | 356097 | 379716 <sup>e</sup> | 394555 | 409169 | 425735 | 443432 | 462366 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Net operating surplus ($ millions) | 41160 | 34940 <sup>e</sup> | 35466 | 36749 | 37794 | 39647 | 42776 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -23.4 | -15.1 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 7.9 |
| Retail sales ($ millions) | 107766 | 108384 | 114051 | 117138 | 121169 | 125599 | 130276 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -0.1 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Housing starts (units) | 50490 | 45828 | 43150 | 43532 | 46625 | 48637 | 50123 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 8.1 | -9.2 | -5.8 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| Residential sales ($ millions) | 70860 | 73071 | 69466 | 80585 | 86599 | 90477 | 93699 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -11.6 | 3.1 | -4.9 | 16 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Residential sales (units) | 72917 | 74428 | 72994 | 81967 | 85942 | 87418 | 88205 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -9.2 | 2.1 | -1.9 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Residential average sale price ($) | 971785 | 981772 | 951667 | 983142 | 1007646 | 1034995 | 1062278 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -2.6 | 1 | -3.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Consumer price index (2002 = 100) | 151.2 | 155.2 | 158.7 | 162.4 | 165.8 | 169.2 | 172.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 3.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Domestic basis; wages, salaries and employers' social contributions.

<sup>e</sup> B.C. Ministry of Finance estimate.

**Table 2.6.3 Labour Market Indicators: British Columbia**

---

| | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast |
|  | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
| Population (thousands at July 1) | 5532 | 5698 | 5721 | 5708 | 5752 | 5818 | 5886 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 3.2 | 3 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Net migration (thousands) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– International<sup>1,4</sup> | 189.8 | 100.3 | -3.2 | 0.4 | 56.9 | 57.2 | 57.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Interprovincial<sup>4</sup> | -1.2 | -5.9 | -1.3 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 11.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;– Total | 188.6 | 94.4 | -4.4 | 5.7 | 65.1 | 67.5 | 69 |
| Labour force population<sup>2</sup> (thousands) | 4566 | 4732 | 4836 | 4837 | 4887 | 4952 | 5017 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Labour force (thousands) | 3004 | 3086 | 3145 | 3158 | 3180 | 3205 | 3235 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Participation rate<sup>3</sup> (%) | 65.8 | 65.2 | 65 | 65.3 | 65.1 | 64.7 | 64.5 |
| Employment (thousands) | 2848 | 2914 | 2952 | 2969 | 2996 | 3027 | 3057 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 |

---

<sup>1</sup> International migration includes net non-permanent residents and returning emigrants less net temporary residents abroad.

<sup>2</sup> The civilian, non-institutionalized population 15 years of age and over.

<sup>3</sup> Percentage of the labour force population in the labour force.

<sup>4</sup> Components may not sum to total due to rounding.

64 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Economic Review and Outlook

**Table 2.6.4 Major Economic Assumptions**

---

| | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast |
|  | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
| **Real GDP** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada (chained 2017 $ billions) | 2385 | 2423 | 2452 | 2474 | 2513 | 2558 | 2605 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;U.S. (chained 2017 US$ billions) | 22671 | 23305 | 23678 | 24009 | 24466 | 24930 | 25379 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan (chained 2015 Yen trillions) | 556 | 556 | 561 | 564 | 566 | 569 | 572 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;China (constant 2010 US$ billions) | 14145 | 14849 | 15562 | 16184 | 16832 | 17505 | 18205 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Euro zone<sup>1</sup> (chained 2020 Euro billions) | 12862 | 12976 | 13119 | 13237 | 13396 | 13556 | 13719 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| **Industrial production index (% change)** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;U.S. | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan | -1.5 | -2.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;China | 4.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Euro zone<sup>1</sup> | -1.7 | -3.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| **Housing starts (thousands)** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada | 240 | 245 | 245 | 230 | 230 | 230 | 230 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -8.2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;U.S. | 1420 | 1367 | 1350 | 1365 | 1400 | 1400 | 1400 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -8.5 | -3.7 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan | 820 | 792 | 780 | 800 | 860 | 860 | 860 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | -4.6 | -3.3 | -1.5 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| **Consumer price index** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada (2002 = 100) | 157.1 | 160.9 | 164.3 | 167.9 | 171.4 | 174.8 | 178.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% change) | 3.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| **Canadian interest rates (%)** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-month Treasury bills | 4.81 | 4.41 | 2.62 | 2.31 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10-year government bonds | 3.36 | 3.34 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| **United States interest rates (%)** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-month Treasury bills | 5.28 | 5.18 | 4.29 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10-year government bonds | 3.96 | 4.21 | 4.36 | 4.13 | 4.00 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| **Exchange rate (US cents / Canadian $)** | 74.1 | 73.0 | 72.1 | 74.9 | 76.1 | 76.6 | 76.6 |
| **British Columbia goods and services** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Export price deflator (% change) | -5.5 | 0.4 <sup>e</sup> | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Euro zone (20) is Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

<sup>e</sup> B.C. Ministry of Finance estimate.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 65 <br>

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**APPENDIX \| FISCAL PLAN UPDATE**

**Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue**

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Revenue Source and Assumptions**<br> **($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated Forecast**<br>**2025/26** | **Plan**<br>**2026/27** | **Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Personal income tax \*** | **17751** | **17686** | **18520** | **19413** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Current calendar year assumptions</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Household income growth | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | +/- 1 percentage point change in 2025 B.C. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Employee compensation growth | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | household income growth equals +/- $180 to |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tax base growth | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | $190 million in revenue |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average tax yield | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.39% | 6.45% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Current-year tax | 17115 | 17074 | 17874 | 18744 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior year's tax assessments | 620 | 620 | 630 | 640 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Unapplied taxes | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. Tax Reduction | (193) | (193) | (197) | (201) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Non-refundable B.C. tax credits | (160) | (160) | (160) | (160) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Policy neutral elasticity \*\* | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | +/- 0.5 change in 2025 B.C. policy neutral |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Fiscal year assumptions</u> |  |  |  |  | elasticity equals +/- $340 to $360 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior-year adjustment |  | (10) |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>2024 Tax-year</u> | 2024 Assumptions | 2024 Assumptions |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Household income growth | 6.8% | 6.6% |  |  | +/- 1 percentage point change in 2024 B.C. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tax base growth | 7.4% | 7.4% |  |  | household or taxable income growth equals |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average 2024 tax yield | 6.27% | 6.27% |  |  | +/- $190 to $200 million one-time effect |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2024 tax | 16460 | 16460 |  |  | (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an |
|  |  |  |  |  | additional +/- $160 to $170 million base change in 2025/26 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2023 & prior year's tax assessments | 610 | 610 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Unapplied taxes | 150 | 150 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. Tax Reduction | (189) | (189) |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Non-refundable B.C. tax credits | (160) | (160) |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Policy neutral elasticity \*\* | 1.2 | 1.2 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* Reflects information as at August 15, 2025 |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\*\* Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year). | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\*\* Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year). | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\*\* Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year). | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\*\* Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year). | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\*\* Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year). | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\*\* Per cent growth in current year tax revenue (excluding policy measures) relative to per cent growth in household income (calendar year). |
| **Corporate income tax \*** | **6209** | **6620** | **6413** | **7014** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue (fiscal year)</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Installments – subject to general rate | 6380 | 6510 | 6704 | 7013 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Installments – subject to small business rate | 318 | 324 | 334 | 349 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Non-refundable B.C. tax credits | (222) | (222) | (227) | (232) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Advance installments | 6476 | 6612 | 6811 | 7130 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior-year settlement payment | (267) | 8 | (398) | (116) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Current calendar year assumptions</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;National tax base ($ billions) | 571.6 | 602.5 | 623.5 | 648.8 | +/- 1% change in the 2025 national tax base |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. installment share of national tax base | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.8% | equals +/- $80 to $90 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Effective percentage tax rates |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(% general/small business) | 12.0 / 2.0 | 12.0 / 2.0 | 12.0 / 2.0 | 12.0 / 2.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Share of the B.C. tax base subject to the small business rate | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% | +/- 1 percentage point change in the 2025 small |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. tax base growth (post federal measures) | -5.5% | -3.4% | 4.7% | -0.3% | business share equals -/+ $70 to $80 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. net operating surplus growth | -1.2% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>2024 Tax-year</u> | 2024 Assumptions | 2024 Assumptions |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. tax base growth (post federal measures) | -7.6% | -3.1% |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Share of the B.C. tax base subject to small business rate | 23.0% | 23.0% |  |  | +/- 1% change in the 2024 B.C. tax base equals |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. net operating surplus growth | -17.3% | -15.1% |  |  | +/- $70 to $80 million one-time effect |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Gross 2024 tax | 6758 | 7083 |  |  | (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior-year settlement payment | (267) | 8 |  |  | additional installments payments of +/- $100 to $120 million in 2025/26 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior years losses/gains (included in above) | (100) | (150) |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Non-refundable B.C. tax credits | (205) | (205) |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;\* Reflects information as at August 15, 2025 |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2025/26 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2025 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2025 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2026 payments. Installments for the 2025 (2026) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2024 (2025) tax year and a forecast of the 2025 (2026) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2023 national tax base was 13.9%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2024. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2024 will be received/paid on March 31, 2026. | &nbsp;&nbsp;Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2025/26 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2025 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2025 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2026 payments. Installments for the 2025 (2026) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2024 (2025) tax year and a forecast of the 2025 (2026) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2023 national tax base was 13.9%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2024. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2024 will be received/paid on March 31, 2026. | &nbsp;&nbsp;Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2025/26 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2025 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2025 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2026 payments. Installments for the 2025 (2026) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2024 (2025) tax year and a forecast of the 2025 (2026) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2023 national tax base was 13.9%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2024. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2024 will be received/paid on March 31, 2026. | &nbsp;&nbsp;Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2025/26 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2025 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2025 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2026 payments. Installments for the 2025 (2026) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2024 (2025) tax year and a forecast of the 2025 (2026) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2023 national tax base was 13.9%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2024. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2024 will be received/paid on March 31, 2026. | &nbsp;&nbsp;Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2025/26 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2025 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2025 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2026 payments. Installments for the 2025 (2026) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2024 (2025) tax year and a forecast of the 2025 (2026) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2023 national tax base was 13.9%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2024. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2024 will be received/paid on March 31, 2026. | &nbsp;&nbsp;Cash received from the federal government is used as the basis for estimating revenue. Due to lags in the federal collection and installment systems, changes to the B.C. net operating surplus and tax base forecasts affect revenue in the succeeding year. The 2025/26 installments from the federal government reflects two-third of payments related to the 2025 tax year (paid during Apr-July 2025 and adjusted in Sept and Dec) and one-third of 2026 payments. Installments for the 2025 (2026) tax year are based on B.C.'s share of the national tax base for the 2024 (2025) tax year and a forecast of the 2025 (2026) national tax base. B.C.'s share of the 2023 national tax base was 13.9%, based on tax assessments as of December 31, 2024. Cash adjustments for any under/over payments from the federal government in respect of 2024 will be received/paid on March 31, 2026. |

---

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First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 67 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)**

---

| | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Revenue Source and Assumptions**<br> **($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | | **Updated Forecast**<br>**2025/26** | **Plan**<br>**2026/27** | **Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Employer health tax** | **3147** |  | **3118** | **3204** | **3313** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Employee compensation growth | 4.5 | % | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | +/- 1 percentage point change in the 2025 employee compensation growth equals up to +/- $30 million |
| **Provincial sales tax** | **10961** |  | **10787** | **11200** | **11591** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial sales tax base growth (fiscal year) | 4.9 | % | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | +/- 1 percentage point change in the 2025 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Calendar Year nominal expenditure</u> |  |  |  |  |  | consumer expenditure growth equals up to |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consumer expenditures on durable goods | 3.3 | % | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | +/- $25 to $30 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consumer expenditures on goods and services | 4.2 | % | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Business investment | 5.1 | % | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 8.2 | % | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of Provincial sales tax revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  | +/- 1 percentage point change in the 2025 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consolidated Revenue Fund | 10953 |  | 10779 | 11192 | 11583 | business investment growth equals up to |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 8 |  | 8 | 8 | 8 | +/- $10 to $20 million |
| **Fuel and carbon taxes** | **3996** |  | **1239** | **1363** | **1423** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Calendar Year</u> |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Real GDP | 1.8 | % | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Gasoline volumes | -2 | % | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Diesel volumes | 2 | % | 8.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other fuel types volumes | -1 | % | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Carbon tax rates (April 1)</u> |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions ($/tonne) | 95 |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas (cents/gigajoule) | 471.77 | ¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Gasoline (cents/litre) | 20.91 | ¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Light fuel oil (cents/litre) | 24.62 | ¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consolidated Revenue Fund | 490 |  | 546 | 553 | 558 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transit | 18 |  | 18 | 18 | 18 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 442 |  | 450 | 458 | 461 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fuel tax revenue | 950 |  | 1014 | 1029 | 1037 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carbon tax / Output-based pricing system revenue \* | 3046 |  | 225 | 334 | 386 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* The Carbon tax was eliminated effective April 1, 2025 and forecast includes Output-based pricing system revenue paid by large industrial emitters. |
| **Property taxes** | **4025** |  | **4067** | **4322** | **4548** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Calendar Year</u> |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consumer Price Index | 2.2 | % | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | +/- 1 percentage point change in 2025 new |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Housing starts (units) | 46543 |  | 43150 | 43532 | 46625 | construction & inflation growth equals up to |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Home owner grants (fiscal year) | 938 |  | 931 | 949 | 968 | +/- $30 million in residential property taxation |
|  |  |  |  |  |  | revenue |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Residential (net of home owner grants) | 1718 |  | 1695 | 1790 | 1891 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Speculation and vacancy | 102 |  | 105 | 137 | 137 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Non-residential | 1725 |  | 1760 | 1860 | 1959 | +/- 1% change in 2025 total business property |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Rural area | 163 |  | 169 | 176 | 185 | assessment value equals up to +/- $20 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Police | 45 |  | 44 | 46 | 49 | in non-residential property taxation revenue |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Assessment Authority | 121 |  | 126 | 128 | 130 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transit | 151 |  | 168 | 185 | 197 |  |
| **Other taxes** | **3610** |  | **3340** | **3598** | **3768** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Calendar Year</u> |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Population | 0.2 | % | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.8% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Residential sales value | 15.9 | % | -4.9% | 16.0% | 7.5% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Real GDP | 1.8 | % | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Nominal GDP | 4.3 | % | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  | +/- 1% change to 2025 residential sales value |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property transfer | 2247 |  | 2000 | 2228 | 2378 | equals +/- $20 million in property transfer |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Additional Property Transfer Tax (included in above) | 40 |  | 40 | 40 | 40 | revenue, depending on property values |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tobacco | 450 |  | 400 | 400 | 400 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Insurance premium | 870 |  | 930 | 960 | 980 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tax targeting home flipping activity | 43 |  | 10 | 10 | 10 |  |

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68 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)**

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| **Revenue Source and Assumptions**<br> **($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated Forecast**<br>**2025/26** | **Plan**<br>**2026/27** | **Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Energy, sales of Crown land tenures, metals, minerals and other \*** | **1845** | **1695** | **1904** | **1893** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas price |  |  |  |  | +/- $0.25 change in the natural gas |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Plant inlet, $C/gigajoule | 1.30 | 1.21 | 1.95 | 1.99 | price equals +/- $100 to $200 million, |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Plant outlet, $C/gigajoule | 2.14 | 1.99 | 2.77 | 2.80 | including impacts on production |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sumas, $US/MMBtu | 2.37 | 2.17 | 2.83 | 2.87 | volumes and royalty program |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas production volumes |  |  |  |  | credits, but excluding any |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Billions of cubic metres | 76.4 | 77.7 | 78.5 | 81.7 | changes from natural gas liquids |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Petajoules | 3157 | 3218 | 3254 | 3384 | revenue (e.g. butane, pentanes) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Annual per cent change | 4.0% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 4.0% |  |
|  |  |  |  |  | Sensitivities can also vary |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Oil price ($US/bbl at Cushing, OK) | 70.78 | 65.05 | 69.70 | 71.21 | significantly at different price levels |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Auctioned land base (000 hectares) | 20 | 10 | 10 | 10 | +/- 1% change in natural gas |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average bid price/hectare ($) | 200 | 3300 | 200 | 200 | volumes equals +/- $10 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Metallurgical coal price ($US/tonne, fob Australia) | 218 | 197 | 208 | 206 | in natural gas royalties |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Copper price ($US/lb) | 4.32 | 4.27 | 4.41 | 4.60 | +/- 1 cent change in the exchange rate equals |
|  |  |  |  |  | +/- $1 million in natural gas royalties |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Annual electricity volumes set by treaty | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(million mega-watt hours) |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mid-Columbia electricity price | 69.38 | 76.70 | 80.66 | 72.19 | +/- $10/bbl change in petroleum price |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;($US/mega-watt hour) |  |  |  |  | equals +/- $5 million in petroleum royalties |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Exchange rate (US¢/C$, calendar year) | 70.0 | 72.1 | 74.9 | 76.1 | +/- 14% change in natural gas liquids |
|  |  |  |  |  | (equivalent to +/- $10/bbl oil price) prices |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  | equals +/- $110 million in natural gas |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bonus bid cash sales | 4 | 33 | 2 | 2 | liquids royalties |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fees and rentals | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total bonus bids, fees and rentals | 40 | 69 | 38 | 38 | +/- 10% change in the average Mid-Columbia |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties after deductions and allowances | 920 | 860 | 1114 | 1116 | electricity price equals +/- $25 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum royalties | 47 | 57 | 41 | 61 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Columbia River Treaty electricity sales | 315 | 332 | 338 | 307 | +/- US$20 change in the average |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Energy Regulator fees and levies | 77 | 76 | 78 | 80 | metallurgical coal price |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Coal, metals and other minerals revenue: |  |  |  |  | equals +/- $50 to $80 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Coal tenures | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Net coal mineral tax | 186 | 83 | 98 | 99 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Net metals and other minerals tax | 109 | 67 | 68 | 81 | In accordance with updated accounting |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Revenue sharing payments to First Nations | 118 | 118 | 96 | 78 | standards, bonus bid revenue is recognized in |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other recoveries | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | full at the time an authorization for the sale of |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Miscellaneous mining revenue | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | Crown land tenure is awarded. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total coal, metals and other minerals revenue | 446 | 301 | 295 | 291 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Gross royalties prior to deductions and allowances</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Gross natural gas revenue | 443 | 444 | 720 | 645 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Gross natural gas liquids royalties revenue | 775 | 622 | 676 | 872 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Royalty programs and infrastructure credits</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Deep drilling | (74) | (69) | (40) |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Road, pipeline, Clean Growth Infrastructure Royalty and other infrastructure programs | (124) | (33) | (66) | (107) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total | (198) | (102) | (106) | (107) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Implicit average natural gas royalty rate | 22.5% | 22.0% | 15.8% | 11.8% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties incorporate royalty programs and Treasury Board approved infrastructure credits. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* Reflects information as at August 8, 2025 | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* Reflects information as at August 8, 2025 |  |  |  |  |

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First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 69 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)**

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| <br> **Revenue Source and Assumptions**<br> **($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget**<br>**Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated**<br>**Forecast**<br>**2025/26** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2026/27** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Forests \*** | **639** | **571** | **559** | **562** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Prices (calendar year average)</u> |  |  |  |  | +/- US$50 change in SPF price equals +/- $50 to |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;SPF 2x4 ($US/thousand board feet) | 440 | 482 | 485 | 490 | $100 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Crown harvest volumes (million cubic metres)</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interior | 23.1 | 21.7 | 23.6 | 22.2 | +/- 10% change in Interior harvest volumes |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Coast | 6.9 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | equals +/- $40 to $45 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total | 30 | 29 | 30 | 29 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. Timber Sales (included in above) | 5.1 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | +/- 10% change in Coastal harvest volumes |
|  |  |  |  |  | equals +/- $10 to $15 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Stumpage rates ($Cdn/cubic metre)</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total stumpage rates | 18.20 | 16.53 | 15.54 | 16.15 | +/- 1 cent change in exchange rate |
|  |  |  |  |  | equals +/- $10 to $15 million in stumpage |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  | revenue |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Timber tenures (net of revenue sharing recoveries) | 191 | 157 | 142 | 155 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Revenue sharing payments to First Nations | 122 | 122 | 71 | 71 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C. Timber Sales | 252 | 217 | 271 | 261 | The above sensitivities relate |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Logging tax | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | to stumpage revenue only. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other CRF revenue | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other recoveries | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* Reflects information as at August 8, 2025 |  |  |  |  |  |
| **Other natural resource** | **513** | **506** | **579** | **625** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Water rental and licences\* | 443 | 436 | 509 | 565 | +/- 5% change in water power production |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Recoveries | 50 | 50 | 50 | 40 | equals +/- $15 to $20 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Angling and hunting permits and licences | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Recoveries | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* Water rentals for power purposes are indexed to Consumer Price Index. | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\* Water rentals for power purposes are indexed to Consumer Price Index. |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  | Revenue sharing from natural gas royalties, |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; **Total natural resource recoveries relating to** |  |  |  |  | mineral tax, electricity sales under the Columbia |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**revenue sharing payments to First Nations** | **370** | **370** | **167** | **149** | River Treaty and forest stumpage revenues. |
| **Other revenue** | **12019** | **14724** | **12076** | **12059** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fees and licences |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Motor vehicle licences and permits | 654 | 662 | 673 | 684 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;International student health fees | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other Consolidated Revenue Fund | 521 | 512 | 512 | 508 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Summary consolidation eliminations | (14) | (14) | (15) | (15) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Ministry vote recoveries | 202 | 202 | 221 | 127 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported Crown corporations | 236 | 236 | 240 | 242 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary education fees | 2733 | 2690 | 2640 | 2673 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other healthcare-related fees | 578 | 631 | 637 | 646 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School Districts | 282 | 273 | 284 | 296 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment earnings |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Consolidated Revenue Fund | 290 | 290 | 260 | 250 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fiscal agency loans & sinking funds earnings | 1228 | 1211 | 1313 | 1414 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Summary consolidation eliminations | (71) | (64) | (63) | (62) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported Crown corporations | 47 | 41 | 38 | 40 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;SUCH sector agencies | 321 | 330 | 296 | 287 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sales of goods and services |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;SUCH sector agencies | 1184 | 1162 | 1228 | 1291 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Infrastructure Benefits Inc | 280 | 268 | 199 | 49 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other taxpayer-supported Crown corporations | 135 | 136 | 147 | 150 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Miscellaneous | 3333 | 6078 | 3386 | 3399 |  |

---

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp8img01.jpg)

70 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)**

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| <br> **Revenue Source and Assumptions**<br> **($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget**<br>**Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated**<br>**Forecast**<br>**2025/26** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2026/27** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Health and social transfers** | **9911** | **9920** | **10331** | **10799** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>National Cash Transfers</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada Health Transfer (CHT) | 54685 | 54685 | 57419 | 60290 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Annual growth | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada Social Transfer (CST) | 17416 | 17416 | 17939 | 18477 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C.'s share of national population (July 1) | 13.75% | 13.76% | 13.71% | 13.71% | +/- 0.1 percentage point change in B.C.'s |
|  |  |  |  |  | population share equals +/- $70 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>B.C. health and social transfers revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;CHT | 7517 | 7524 | 7872 | 8266 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;CST | 2394 | 2396 | 2459 | 2533 |  |
| **Other federal contributions** | **5366** | **5000** | **4851** | **4210** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>Components of revenue</u> |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements | 967 | 604 | 686 | 559 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.C.'s share of the federal cannabis excise tax | 110 | 122 | 125 | 125 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other Consolidated Revenue Fund | 134 | 120 | 123 | 124 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vote Recoveries: |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Labour Market Development Agreement | 296 | 296 | 296 | 296 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Labour Market and Skills Training Program | 98 | 98 | 98 | 98 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Working Together To Improve Healthcare | 408 | 408 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Aging With Dignity | 235 | 235 | 240 | 158 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Access to Contraception and Diabetes medications and access to Diabetes devices and supplies |  | 17 | 243 | 205 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Drugs For Rare Diseases | 65 | 65 | 65 |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Child Care | 1132 | 1145 | 1107 | 992 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Child Safety, Family Support, Children in Care and with special needs | 98 | 98 | 93 | 88 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Public Transit | 244 | 151 | 165 | 49 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Local government services and transfers | 198 | 198 | 172 | 91 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other recoveries | 159 | 159 | 158 | 160 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported Crown corporations | 370 | 393 | 387 | 364 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 713 | 742 | 746 | 754 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other SUCH sector agencies | 139 | 149 | 147 | 147 |  |
| **Service delivery agency direct revenue** | **9898** | **9999** | **10005** | **9976** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School districts | 752 | 777 | 770 | 782 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 5251 | 5158 | 5151 | 5247 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health authorities and hospital societies | 1503 | 1629 | 1633 | 1648 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 552 | 563 | 589 | 603 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other service delivery agencies | 1840 | 1872 | 1862 | 1696 |  |

---

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp8img01.jpg)

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 71 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A1 Material Assumptions – Revenue (continued)**

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| <br> **Revenue Source and Assumptions**<br> **($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget**<br>**Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated**<br>**Forecast**<br>**2025/26** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2026/27** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Commercial Crown corporation net income** | **4011** | **3991** | **3928** | **3971** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**BC Hydro** | **712** | **712** | **712** | **712** | Sensitivities impacts shown below are before |
|  |  |  |  |  | regulatory account transfers |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Reservoir water inflows | 100% | 89% | 100% | 100% | +/-1% in hydro generation equals +/- $40 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Customer demand (GWh) | 57001 | 55958 | 59034 | 58798 | +/-1% equals +/-$5 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Electricity prices (Mid-C, $US/MWh) | 65.23 | 64.54 | 69.03 | 69.22 | +/-1% change in electricity/gas trade margin |
|  |  |  |  |  | equals +/- $5 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Purchases from Energy Purchase Agreements (GWh) | 14205 | 13638 | 14103 | 14111 | +/-1% equals +/-$5 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interest rates - variable debt | 2.68% | 2.33% | 2.79% | 2.79% | +/-100 basis points = +/- $45 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**ICBC** | **800** | **800** | **700** | **700** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vehicle growth | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | +/-1% equals +/-$65 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Current claims cost percentage change | 13.6% | 10.9% | 15.3% | 7.8% | +/-1% equals +/-$45 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Unpaid claims balance ($ billions) | 9.1 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | +/-1% equals +/-$83 to $91 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment return | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | +/-1% return equals +/-$178 to 183 million |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Loss ratio | 82.3% | 76.8% | 82.2% | 85.7% |  |

---

72 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

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Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A2 Natural Gas Price Forecasts – 2025/26 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| | | | | **Adjusted to fiscal years and** | **Adjusted to fiscal years and** | **Adjusted to fiscal years and** |
| <br>**Private sector forecasts (calendar year)** | | | | **$C/gigajoule at plant inlet** | **$C/gigajoule at plant inlet** | **$C/gigajoule at plant inlet** |
|  | **2025** | **2026** | **2027** | **2025/26** | **2026/27** | **2027/28** |
| GLJ Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 3.73 | 4.50 | 4.16 | 1.74 | 3.06 | 2.74 |
| Sproule Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 3.72 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.38 | 1.93 | 1.91 |
| McDaniel Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 3.70 | 3.83 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 2.41 |
| Deloitte Henry Hub US$/Mcf (Jun 2025) | 3.77 | 4.10 | 4.15 | 0.34 | 2.52 | 2.58 |
| GLJ Alberta AECO-C Spot CDN$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 2.09 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 1.18 | 1.84 | 2.31 |
| Sproule Alberta AECO-C Spot CDN$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 2.18 | 3.42 | 3.28 | 1.40 | 2.06 | 1.99 |
| McDaniel AECO-C Spot C$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 2.15 | 3.06 | 3.64 | 1.22 | 1.92 | 2.33 |
| Deloitte AECO-C Spot C$/Mcf (Jun 2025) | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 1.25 | 2.10 | 2.21 |
| GLJ Sumas Spot US$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 1.79 | 4.40 | 4.06 | 1.71 | 3.80 | 3.47 |
| Sproule Sumas Spot CDN$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 3.02 | 5.26 | 5.15 | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.31 |
| GLJ BC Spot Plant Gate CDN$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 0.96 | 2.89 | 2.93 | 1.14 | 2.08 | 2.20 |
| Sproule BC Station 2 CDN$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 1.28 | 3.22 | 3.07 | 1.21 | 2.10 | 2.02 |
| McDaniel BC Avg Plant Gate C$MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 1.15 | 2.24 | 2.81 | 0.98 | 1.61 | 2.01 |
| Deloitte BC Station 2 C$MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 1.20 | 3.20 | 3.35 | 1.29 | 2.30 | 2.41 |
| GLJ Midwest Chicago US$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 3.17 | 4.35 | 4.01 | 2.89 | 3.79 | 3.46 |
| Sproule Alliance Plant Gate CDN$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 4.99 | 4.67 | 4.51 | 2.98 | 3.25 | 3.16 |
| EIA Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jul 2025) | 3.54 | 4.24 |  | 1.31 |  |  |
| TD Economics Henry Hub FuturesUS$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 3.90 | 4.15 |  | 1.52 |  |  |
| Scotiabank Group Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 4.11 | 4.63 |  | 2.11 |  |  |
| BMO Henry Hub US$/MMBtu (Jun 2025) | 3.75 | 3.50 |  | 1.28 |  |  |
| InSite Petroleum Consultants Ltd BC Spot C$/Mcf (Jun 2025) | 2.14 | 3.42 | 3.58 | 1.34 | 2.14 | 2.27 |
| NYMEX Forward Market converted to Plant Inlet CDN$/GJ (Jul 8, 2025) |  |  |  | 1.28 | 2.84 | 2.45 |
| **Average all minus high/low** |  |  |  | **1.51** | **2.45** | **2.49** |
| **Average one forecast per consultant minus high/low** |  |  |  | **1.30** | **2.11** | **2.17** |
| **Natural gas royalty price forecast** |  |  |  | **1.21** | **1.95** | **1.99** |

---

GLJ: Gilbert Laustsen Jung Petroleum Consultants Ltd US EIA: US Energy Information Administration AECO: Alberta Energy Company

Deloitte/AJM: Deloitte L.L.P acquired Ashton Jenkins Mann Petroleum Consultants McDaniel: McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd

74 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Natural Gas Prices**

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp9img01.jpg)

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 75 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A3 Material Assumptions – Expense**

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| <br>**Ministry Programs and Assumptions**<br>**($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget**<br>**Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated**<br>**Forecast**<br>**2025/26** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2026/27** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Attorney General** | **900** | **900** | **903** | **903** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;New cases filed/processed<br> (# for all courts) | 242000 | 242000 | 242000 | 242000 | The number of criminal cases proceeded on by the provincial and federal Crown (including appeals to higher courts in BC), the number of civil and family litigation cases, the number of violation tickets disputed, and the number of municipal bylaw tickets disputed which would go to court for resolution. |
| *Crown Proceeding Act (CPA)* | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | Number of litigation cases resolved by court decisions or negotiated settlement; changes in Legal Counsel assessment of probability of payment and/or quantum; newly identified pending litigation cases |
| *Crown Proceeding Act (CPA)* | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | Number of litigation cases resolved by court decisions or negotiated settlement; changes in Legal Counsel assessment of probability of payment and/or quantum; newly identified pending litigation cases |
| *Crown Proceeding Act (CPA)* | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | Number of litigation cases resolved by court decisions or negotiated settlement; changes in Legal Counsel assessment of probability of payment and/or quantum; newly identified pending litigation cases |
| *Crown Proceeding Act (CPA)* | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | Number of litigation cases resolved by court decisions or negotiated settlement; changes in Legal Counsel assessment of probability of payment and/or quantum; newly identified pending litigation cases |
| *Crown Proceeding Act (CPA)* | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | Number of litigation cases resolved by court decisions or negotiated settlement; changes in Legal Counsel assessment of probability of payment and/or quantum; newly identified pending litigation cases |
| **Children and Family Development** | **2443** | **2443** | **2472** | **2472** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average children-in-care <br> caseload (#) | 4826 | 4857 | 4814 | 4804 | The average number of children-in-care is decreasing as a result of ministry efforts to keep children in family settings where safe and feasible. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average annual residential <br> cost per child in care ($) | 210790 | 187022 | 195529 | 201847 | The average cost per child in care is projected to increase based on the higher cost of contracted residential services and an increasing acuity of need for children in care. A 1% increase in the cost per case or a 1% increase in the average caseload will affect expenditures by $4.7 million (excluding Indigenous CFS Agencies). |
| **Education and Child Care** | **9828** | **9834** | **9855** | **9855** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Public School Enrolment (# of FTEs) | 601510 | 599679 | 589827 | 577796 | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School age (K–12) | 577577 | 575322 | 565607 | 553743 | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Continuing Education | 772 | 772 | 772 | 772 | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Distributed Learning (online) | 14002 | 13970 | 13833 | 13665 | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Summer | 7036 | 7422 | 7422 | 7422 | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Adults | 2122 | 2193 | 2193 | 2193 | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
|  |  |  |  |  | Updated forecast enrolment figures are based on submissions from school districts of their actual enrolment as at September 30, 2024 for the 2024/25 school year and projected enrolment for February and May 2025. Projections are based on the Ministry of Education and Child Care's enrolment forecasting model as of June 2025. |
| **Emergency Management and Climate Readiness** | **125** | **125** | **125** | **125** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;*Emergency and Disaster Management Act* | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | Emergency disaster relief is unpredictable. There are a number of factors that could impact the timing of delivering recovery projects resulting from the Emergency Events. |
| **Forests** | **891** | **1504** | **909** | **888** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Timber Sales | 240 | 240 | 258 | 237 | Targets can be impacted by changes to actual inventory costs incurred. There is a lag of approximately 1.5 years between when inventory costs are incurred and when they are expensed. Volume harvested can also impact targets. For example, if volume harvested is less than projected in any year, then capitalized expenses will also be reduced in that year. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fire Management | 238 | 851 | 238 | 238 | Costs are driven by length of season and severity of weather conditions, severity of fires, proportion of interface fires and size of fires. Costs have ranged from a low of $47 million in 2006 to a high of $1.094 billion in 2023/24 (Fire season 2023). Current year costs are already will above the 20 year average. |

---

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp9img02.jpg)

76 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A3 Material Assumptions – Expense *(continued)***

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| <br>**Ministry Programs and Assumptions**<br>**($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget**<br>**Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated**<br>**Forecast**<br>**2025/26** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2026/27** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Health** | **35144** | **35144** | **35906** | **36877** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Pharmacare | 1788 | 1788 | 1788 | 1788 | A 1% change in PharmaCare utilization or prices affects costs by approximately $15 million. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan (MSP) | 8128 | 8128 | 8271 | 8400 | A 1% increase in volume of services provided by fee-for-service physicians affects costs by approximately $60 million. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Regional Services | 24782 | 24782 | 25401 | 26243 | A 1% increase in volume of services provided by Health Authorities is estimated to be $240 million. |
| **Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills** | **3516** | **3516** | **3516** | **3516** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Student spaces in public institutions | 209588 | 209588 | 209571 | 209592 | Student enrolments may fluctuate due to a number of factors including economic changes and labour market needs. |
| **Public Safety and Solicitor General** | **1137** | **1137** | **1139** | **1139** | Policing, Victim Services and Corrections costs |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Policing, Victim Services and Corrections | 996 | 996 | 997 | 997 | are sensitive to the volume and severity of criminal activity, the number of inmate beds occupied and the number of offenders under community supervision. |
| **Social Development and Poverty Reduction** | **5747** | **5747** | **5921** | **6103** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Temporary Assistance <br> annual average caseload (#) | 69500 | 75870 | 52700 | 52700 | The expected to work caseload is sensitive to fluctuations in economic and employment trends. Costs are driven by changes to cost per case and caseload. Cost per case fluctuations result from changes in the needed supports required by clients, as well as caseload composition. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Disability Assistance <br> annual average caseload (#) | 130500 | 129276 | 127300 | 127300 | The caseload for persons with disabilities is sensitive to the aging of the population and longer life expectancy for individuals with disabilities. Cost per case fluctuations are driven primarily by earnings exemptions which is dependent on the level of income earned by clients. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Adult Community Living: |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Developmental Disabilities Programs |  |  |  |  | The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average caseload (#) | 25620 | 25600 | 26560 | 27550 | The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average cost per client ($) | 65000 | 65000 | 62700 | 60600 | The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Personal Supports Initiative (PSI) |  |  |  |  | The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average caseload (#) | 3670 | 3690 | 4030 | 4380 | The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Average cost per client ($) | 17400 | 17400 | 15900 | 14700 | The adult community living caseload is sensitive to an aging population and to the level of service required. Cost per case fluctuations are driven by the proportion of clients receiving certain types of services at differing costs. For example, residential care services are significantly more costly than day programs. |

---

![](tm2526152d1_ex99-15sp9img02.jpg)

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 77 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A3 Material Assumptions – Expense *(continued)***

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| <br>**Ministry Programs and Assumptions**<br>**($ millions unless otherwise specified)** | **Budget**<br>**Estimate**<br>**2025/26** | **Updated**<br>**Forecast**<br>**2025/26** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2026/27** |<br>**Plan**<br>**2027/28** | <br>**2025/26 Sensitivities** |
| **Tax Transfers** | **3408** | **2668** | **2473** | **2739** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Individuals | 2037.0 | 1297.0 | 952.0 | 954.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Climate Action Tax Credit | 1025.0 | 285.0 |  |  | These tax transfers are now expensed as required |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Family Benefit | 520.0 | 520.0 | 520.0 | 520.0 | under generally accepted accounting principles. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Family Benefit Bonus (temporary increase)\* | 62.0 | 62.0 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Renter's Tax Credit | 206.0 | 206.0 | 208.0 | 210.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sales Tax | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Small Business Venture Capital | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Senior's Home Renovation | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other tax transfers to individuals | 131.0 | 131.0 | 131.0 | 131.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Corporations | 1371.0 | 1371.0 | 1521.0 | 1785.0 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Film and Television | 162.5 | 162.5 | 177.5 | 200.5 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Production Services | 861.8 | 861.8 | 982.0 | 1189.3 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Scientific Research & Experimental Development | 121.3 | 121.3 | 126.3 | 131.3 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interactive Digital Media | 141.3 | 141.3 | 151.3 | 180.3 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mining Exploration | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other tax transfers to corporations | 24.1 | 24.1 | 23.9 | 23.6 | Changes in 2024 tax transfers will result in one-time effect (prior-year adjustment) and could result in an additional base change in 2025/26. Production services tax credit is the most volatile of all tax transfers and is influenced by several factors including delay in filing returns and assessment of claims, length of projects and changes in the exchange rates. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<u>2024 Tax-year</u> | 2024 Assumptions | 2024 Assumptions |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tax Transfers | 3118.6 | 3118.6 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Individuals | 1864.6 | 1864.6 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Corporations | 1254.0 | 1254.0 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Film and Television | 150.0 | 150.0 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Production Services | 770.0 | 770.0 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Scientific Research & Experimental Development | 115.0 | 115.0 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interactive Digital Media | 135.0 | 135.0 |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other tax transfers to corporations | 84.0 | 84.0 |  |  |  |
| **Management of Public Funds and Debt** | **2762** | **2902** | **3711** | **4577** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interest rates for new provincial borrowing: |  |  |  |  | Full year impact on MoPD on interest costs: <br> - 1% change in interest rates equals $73.6 million;<br> - $100 million increase in debt level equals $4.1 million. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Short-term | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.36% | 2.54% | Full year impact on MoPD on interest costs: <br> - 1% change in interest rates equals $73.6 million;<br> - $100 million increase in debt level equals $4.1 million. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Long-term | 4.29% | 4.61% | 4.58% | 4.58% | Full year impact on MoPD on interest costs: <br> - 1% change in interest rates equals $73.6 million;<br> - $100 million increase in debt level equals $4.1 million. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;CDN/US exchange rate (cents) | 141.9 | 136.6 | 132.6 | 131.2 | Full year impact on MoPD on interest costs: <br> - 1% change in interest rates equals $73.6 million;<br> - $100 million increase in debt level equals $4.1 million. |
| **Service delivery agency net spending** | **10680** | **10347** | **10725** | **10822** |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School districts | 706 | 680 | 690 | 706 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 5286 | 5082 | 5126 | 5226 | Agency expenses, net of Provincial funding. These are mainly funded through revenue from other sources. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health authorities and hospital societies | 1625 | 1583 | 1592 | 1607 | Agency expenses, net of Provincial funding. These are mainly funded through revenue from other sources. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 2123 | 2038 | 2358 | 2613 | Agency expenses, net of Provincial funding. These are mainly funded through revenue from other sources. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Infrastructure Benefits Inc | 280 | 268 | 198 | 49 | Agency expenses, net of Provincial funding. These are mainly funded through revenue from other sources. |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other service delivery agencies | 660 | 696 | 761 | 621 | Agency expenses, net of Provincial funding. These are mainly funded through revenue from other sources. |

---

78 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A4 Operating Statement – 2018/19 to 2027/28** <sup>1</sup>

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Updated |  |  | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Revenue | 56950 | 58493 | 62047 | 72391 | 81790 | 79623 | 84046 | 83264 | 82848 | 85189 | 4.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expense | (55634) | (59024) | (67662) | (71129) | (80834) | (84658) | (91393) | (94841) | (95493) | (97462) | 6.4 |
| **Surplus (deficit)** | **1316** | **(531)** | **(5615)** | **1262** | **956** | **(5035)** | **(7347)** | **(11577)** | **(12645)** | **(12273)** |  |
| **Per cent of nominal GDP:** <sup>2</sup>** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Surplus (deficit) | 0.4 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.5 |  |
| **Per cent of revenue:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Surplus (deficit) | 2.3 | -0.9 | -9.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -6.3 | -8.7 | -13.9 | -15.3 | -14.4 |  |
| **Per capita ($):** <sup>3</sup>** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Surplus (deficit) | 262 | (104) | (1085) | 241 | 178 | (910) | (1289) | (2024) | (2215) | (2134) |  |

---

<sup>1</sup> Figures have been restated to reflect government current accounting policies.

<sup>2</sup> Surplus (deficit) as a per cent of nominal GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 amounts divided by nominal GDP for the 2025 calendar year).

<sup>3</sup> Per capita revenue and expense is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2025/26 amounts divided by population on July 1, 2025).

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 79 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A5 Revenue by Source – 2018/19 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Updated |  |  | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Taxation revenue:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Personal income | 11364 | 10657 | 11118 | 13704 | 17268 | 16443 | 17026 | 17686 | 18520 | 19413 | 6.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Corporate income | 5180 | 5011 | 4805 | 5053 | 9156 | 6085 | 8262 | 6620 | 6413 | 7014 | 3.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Employer health | 464 | 1897 | 2156 | 2443 | 2720 | 2886 | 3056 | 3118 | 3204 | 3313 | 24.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sales | 7369 | 7374 | 7694 | 8731 | 9818 | 10330 | 10363 | 10787 | 11200 | 11591 | 5.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fuel | 1015 | 1008 | 936 | 1022 | 1021 | 982 | 979 | 1014 | 1029 | 1037 | 0.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Carbon <sup>1</sup> | 1465 | 1682 | 1683 | 2011 | 2161 | 2642 | 2606 | 225 | 334 | 386 | -13.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tobacco | 781 | 729 | 711 | 708 | 531 | 477 | 412 | 400 | 400 | 400 | -7.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property | 2617 | 2608 | 2313 | 3012 | 3253 | 3605 | 3837 | 4067 | 4322 | 4548 | 6.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Property transfer | 1826 | 1609 | 2098 | 3327 | 2293 | 1993 | 2005 | 2000 | 2228 | 2378 | 3.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Insurance premium and other taxes | 633 | 691 | 652 | 706 | 804 | 853 | 900 | 940 | 970 | 990 | 5.1 |
|  | **32714** | **33266** | **34166** | **40717** | **49025** | **46296** | **49446** | **46857** | **48620** | **51070** | 5.1 |
| **Natural resource revenue:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural gas royalties | 199 | 118 | 196 | 920 | 2255 | 823 | 672 | 860 | 1114 | 1116 | 21.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bonus bids, rents on drilling rights and leases | 106 | 60 | 45 | 45 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 69 | 38 | 38 | -10.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Columbia River Treaty | 202 | 119 | 117 | 231 | 437 | 448 | 297 | 332 | 338 | 307 | 4.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other energy and minerals | 557 | 386 | 191 | 795 | 979 | 637 | 448 | 434 | 414 | 432 | -2.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Forests | 1406 | 988 | 1304 | 1893 | 1887 | 657 | 514 | 571 | 559 | 562 | -9.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other resources | 465 | 432 | 433 | 499 | 518 | 536 | 443 | 506 | 579 | 625 | 3.3 |
|  | **2935** | **2103** | **2286** | **4383** | **6117** | **3143** | **2416** | **2772** | **3042** | **3080** | 0.5 |
| **Other revenue:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan premiums | 1360 | 1063 | (4) | 1 | (1) | (1) |  |  |  |  | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary education fees | 2275 | 2451 | 2418 | 2536 | 2651 | 2840 | 2911 | 2690 | 2640 | 2673 | 1.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other health-care related fees | 441 | 475 | 372 | 417 | 519 | 591 | 631 | 631 | 637 | 646 | 4.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Motor vehicle licences and permits | 563 | 576 | 581 | 622 | 621 | 630 | 641 | 662 | 673 | 684 | 2.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other fees and licences | 949 | 1004 | 970 | 1025 | 1146 | 1217 | 1285 | 1289 | 1322 | 1238 | 3.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment earnings | 1243 | 1263 | 1264 | 1306 | 1314 | 1708 | 2159 | 1808 | 1844 | 1929 | 5.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sales of goods and services | 1164 | 1162 | 741 | 1059 | 1396 | 1548 | 1534 | 1566 | 1574 | 1490 | 2.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Miscellaneous <sup>2</sup> | 2249 | 2676 | 2395 | 2851 | 3049 | 3440 | 3926 | 6078 | 3386 | 3399 | 4.7 |
|  | **10244** | **10670** | **8737** | **9817** | **10695** | **11973** | **13087** | **14724** | **12076** | **12059** | 1.8 |
| **Contributions from the federal government:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada Health Transfer | 5182 | 5523 | 5701 | 6431 | 6432 | 7117 | 7203 | 7524 | 7872 | 8266 | 5.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Canada Social Transfer | 1908 | 1971 | 2042 | 2110 | 2174 | 2273 | 2339 | 2396 | 2459 | 2533 | 3.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other cost shared agreements | 1962 | 2041 | 5151 | 3439 | 3921 | 4344 | 4765 | 5000 | 4851 | 4210 | 8.9 |
|  | **9052** | **9535** | **12894** | **11980** | **12527** | **13734** | **14307** | **14920** | **15182** | **15009** | 5.8 |
| **Commercial Crown corporation net income:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Hydro <sup>3</sup> | (428) | 705 | 688 | 668 | 360 | 323 | 587 | 712 | 712 | 712 | -205.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Liquor Distribution Branch | 1104 | 1107 | 1161 | 1189 | 1199 | 1148 | 1094 | 1003 | 997 | 997 | -1.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Lottery Corporation <sup>4</sup> | 1405 | 1336 | 420 | 1211 | 1584 | 1429 | 1295 | 1288 | 1330 | 1374 | -0.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ICBC | (1153) | (376) | 1528 | 2286 | 131 | 1399 | 1653 | 800 | 700 | 700 | -194.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 127 | 147 | 167 | 140 | 152 | 178 | 161 | 188 | 189 | 188 | 4.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Accounting adjustment <sup>3</sup> | 950 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | n/a |
|  | **2005** | **2919** | **3964** | **5494** | **3426** | **4477** | **4790** | **3991** | **3928** | **3971** | 7.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total revenue** | **56950** | **58493** | **62047** | **72391** | **81790** | **79623** | **84046** | **83264** | **82848** | **85189** | 4.6 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Carbon tax revenue was eliminated effective April 1, 2025. Includes carbon tax revenue until 2024/25 and output-based pricing system revenue from large industrial emitters from 2025/26.

<sup>2</sup> 2025/26 Miscellaneous revenue includes $2.725 billion in one-time net revenue in relation to the tobacco settlement.

<sup>3</sup> BC Hydro's loss for 2018/19 includes a write-off of a regulatory account. At the summary level, the Province recognized a $950 million adjustment in fiscal 2017/18 with respect to BC Hydro's deferred regulatory accounts.

<sup>4</sup> Net of federal government payments and beginning in 2021/22, is also net of payments to the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership in accordance with section 14.3 of the *Gaming Control Act (B.C.).*

80 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A6 Revenue by Source Supplementary Information – 2018/19 to 2027/28 <sup>1</sup>**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | <br>Actual<br>2018/19 | <br>Actual<br>2019/20 | <br>Actual<br>2020/21 | <br>Actual<br>2021/22 | <br>Actual<br>2022/23 | <br>Actual<br>2023/24 | <br>Actual<br>2024/25 | Updated<br>Forecast<br>2025/26 | <br>Plan<br>2026/27 | <br>Plan<br>2027/28 | Average<br>annual<br>change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Per cent of nominal GDP:** <sup>2</sup>** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxation and Medical Services Plan premiums | &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;11.5 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxation | 11 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan premiums | 0.5 | 0.3 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources | 1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -4.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | -3.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other excluding |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan premiums | 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | -1.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contributions from the federal government | 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporation net income | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total revenue** | **19.2** | **18.9** | **20.2** | **20.3** | **20.7** | **19.4** | **19.7** | **18.8** | **17.9** | **17.7** | -0.9 |
| **Growth rates (per cent):** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxation | 15.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 19.2 | 20.4 | -5.6 | 6.8 | -5.2 | 3.8 | 5 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources | 12.2 | -28.3 | 8.7 | 91.7 | 39.6 | -48.6 | -23.1 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 1.2 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | -6 | 4.2 | -18.1 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 12.5 | -18 | -0.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other excluding |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan premiums | 3 | 8.1 | -9 | 12.3 | 9 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 12.5 | -18 | -0.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contributions from the federal government | 0 | 5.3 | 35.2 | -7.1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | -1.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporation net income | 89.9 | 45.6 | 35.8 | 38.6 | -37.6 | 30.7 | 7 | -16.7 | -1.6 | 1.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total revenue** | **9.6** | **2.7** | **6.1** | **16.7** | **13.0** | **-2.6** | **5.6** | **-0.9** | **-0.5** | **2.8** | n/a |
| **Per capita ($):** <sup>3</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxation | 6515 | 6509 | 6601 | 7790 | 9151 | 8369 | 8677 | 8190 | 8518 | 8879 | 3.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources | 585 | 411 | 442 | 839 | 1142 | 568 | 424 | 485 | 533 | 535 | -1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 2040 | 2088 | 1688 | 1878 | 1996 | 2164 | 2297 | 2574 | 2116 | 2097 | 0.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other excluding |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan premiums | 1769 | 1880 | 1689 | 1878 | 1996 | 2165 | 2297 | 2574 | 2116 | 2097 | 1.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contributions from the federal government | 1803 | 1866 | 2491 | 2292 | 2338 | 2483 | 2511 | 2608 | 2660 | 2609 | 4.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporation net income | 399 | 571 | 766 | 1051 | 639 | 809 | 841 | 698 | 688 | 690 | 6.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total revenue** | **11342** | **11444** | **11987** | **13850** | **15266** | **14394** | **14749** | **14554** | **14514** | **14811** | 3 |
| **Real Per Capita Revenue (2024 $)** <sup>4</sup> | **13710** | **13517** | **14051** | **15794** | **16284** | **14775** | **14749** | **14232** | **13871** | **13864** | 0.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Growth rate (per cent) | 4.9 | -1.4 | 4 | 12.4 | 3.1 | -9.3 | -0.2 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 1.8 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Numbers may not add due to rounding.

<sup>2</sup> Revenue as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 revenue divided by nominal GDP for the 2025 calendar year).

<sup>3</sup> Per capita revenue is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2025/26 revenue divided by population on July 1, 2025).

<sup>4</sup> Revenue is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2025 CPI for 2025/26 revenue).

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 81 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A7 Expense by Function – 2018/19 to 2027/28 <sup>1,2</sup>**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Updated |  |  | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Function:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Medical Services Plan | 4861 | 5013 | 5145 | 5776 | 6006 | 7071 | 8240 | 8355 | 8501 | 8630 | 6.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Pharmacare | 1494 | 1517 | 1501 | 1579 | 1711 | 1906 | 1974 | 2118 | 2118 | 2088 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Regional services | 15002 | 16054 | 18290 | 19574 | 21715 | 25261 | 27288 | 27620 | 27991 | 28646 | 7.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other healthcare expenses | 800 | 872 | 677 | 662 | 890 | 625 | 680 | 1114 | 1096 | 1096 | 3.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total health | 22157 | 23456 | 25613 | 27591 | 30322 | 34863 | 38182 | 39207 | 39706 | 40460 | 6.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Elementary and secondary | 7255 | 7584 | 7444 | 8085 | 8585 | 9285 | 9990 | 10463 | 10133 | 10157 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary | 6398 | 6846 | 6872 | 7357 | 7517 | 8403 | 8856 | 8903 | 9029 | 8970 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other education expenses | 442 | 312 | 630 | 361 | 891 | 791 | 763 | 1152 | 742 | 981 | 9.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total education | 14095 | 14742 | 14946 | 15803 | 16993 | 18479 | 19609 | 20518 | 19904 | 20108 | 4.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social services: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social assistance | 2202 | 2342 | 3141 | 2910 | 3157 | 3009 | 3599 | 3741 | 3912 | 4091 | 7.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Child welfare | 1652 | 1940 | 2226 | 2254 | 3168 | 3941 | 4547 | 4549 | 4480 | 4360 | 11.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Low income tax credit transfers | 414 | 435 | 1131 | 754 | 1746 | 733 | 1015 | 330 | 45 | 45 | -21.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Community living and other services | 1075 | 1170 | 1291 | 1350 | 1581 | 1601 | 1761 | 2107 | 1990 | 1985 | 7.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total social services | 5343 | 5887 | 7789 | 7268 | 9652 | 9284 | 10922 | 10727 | 10427 | 10481 | 7.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Protection of persons and property | 2004 | 2126 | 2258 | 2937 | 3483 | 3101 | 3183 | 2662 | 2698 | 2694 | 3.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation | 2021 | 2126 | 3362 | 4453 | 3320 | 2379 | 2933 | 2903 | 2915 | 2818 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources & economic development | 3825 | 3779 | 4191 | 5213 | 6284 | 6704 | 6165 | 5198 | 4448 | 4441 | 1.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other <sup>3</sup> | 1831 | 2524 | 2862 | 3082 | 5736 | 4215 | 4022 | 3704 | 3078 | 2935 | 5.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contingencies Vote |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;General government | 1674 | 1657 | 3919 | 2040 | 2325 | 2341 | 2132 | 2064 | 2052 | 2061 | 2.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt servicing | 2684 | 2727 | 2722 | 2742 | 2719 | 3292 | 4245 | 5206 | 6265 | 7464 | 12.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total expense** | **55634** | **59024** | **67662** | **71129** | **80834** | **84658** | **91393** | **96189** | **95493** | **97462** |  |
| **Per cent of operating expense:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 39.8 | 39.7 | 37.9 | 38.8 | 37.5 | 41.2 | 41.8 | 40.8 | 41.6 | 41.5 | 0.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education | 25.3 | 25.0 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 21.0 | 21.8 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 20.6 | -2.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social services | 9.6 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 1.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Protection of persons and property | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | -2.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -2.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources & economic development | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -4.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contingencies Vote |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;General government | 3.0 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt servicing | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Operating expense** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** | **100.0** |  |

---

<sup>1</sup> Figures reflect government accounting policies used in the *2024/25 Public Accounts* audited financial statements.

<sup>2</sup> Numbers may not add due to rounding.

<sup>3</sup> Other spending includes expenditure management savings targets of $300 million in 2025/26, $600 million in 2026/27 and $600 million in 2027/28.

82 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A8 Expense by Function Supplementary Information – 2018/19 to 2027/28 <sup>1</sup>**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |<br>Actual<br>2018/19 |<br>Actual<br>2019/20 |<br>Actual<br>2020/21 |<br>Actual<br>2021/22 |<br>Actual<br>2022/23 |<br>Actual<br>2023/24 |<br>Actual<br>2024/25 | Updated<br>Forecast<br>2025/26 |<br>Plan<br>2026/27 |<br>Plan<br>2027/28 | Average<br>annual<br>change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Per cent of nominal GDP:** <sup>2</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 7.5 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 9 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 1.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | -1.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social services | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Protection of persons and property | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -2.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -1.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources & economic development | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.9 | -3.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contingencies Vote |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;General government | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt servicing | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 6.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Operating expense** | **18.7** | **19.1** | **22.0** | **19.9** | **20.4** | **20.7** | **21.4** | **21.7** | **20.7** | **20.2** | 0.9 |
| **Growth rates (per cent):** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 5.8 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 15 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 4.6 | -3 | 1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social services | 12.8 | 10.2 | 32.3 | -6.7 | 32.8 | -3.8 | 17.6 | -1.8 | -2.8 | 0.5 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Protection of persons and property | 3.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 30.1 | 18.6 | -11 | 2.6 | -16.4 | 1.4 | -0.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation | 4.7 | 5.2 | 58.1 | 32.5 | -25.4 | -28.3 | 23.3 | -1 | 0.4 | -3.3 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources & economic development | 13.4 | -1.2 | 10.9 | 24.4 | 20.5 | 6.7 | -8 | -15.7 | -14.4 | -0.2 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 16.3 | 37.8 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 86.1 | -26.5 | -4.6 | -7.9 | -16.9 | -4.6 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contingencies Vote |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;General government | 8.4 | -1 | 136.5 | -47.9 | 14 | 0.7 | -8.9 | -3.2 | -0.6 | 0.4 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt servicing | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 21.1 | 28.9 | 22.6 | 20.3 | 19.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Operating expense** | **7.5** | **6.1** | **14.6** | **5.1** | **13.6** | **4.7** | **8.0** | **5.2** | **-0.7** | **2.1** | n/a |
| **Per capita ($):** <sup>3</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 4413 | 4589 | 4948 | 5279 | 5660 | 6303 | 6700 | 6853 | 6956 | 7034 | 5.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education | 2807 | 2884 | 2888 | 3024 | 3172 | 3341 | 3441 | 3586 | 3487 | 3496 | 2.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social services | 1064 | 1152 | 1505 | 1391 | 1802 | 1678 | 1917 | 1875 | 1827 | 1822 | 6.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Protection of persons and property | 399 | 416 | 436 | 562 | 650 | 561 | 559 | 465 | 473 | 468 | 1.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation | 403 | 416 | 650 | 852 | 620 | 430 | 515 | 507 | 511 | 490 | 2.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Natural resources & economic development | 762 | 739 | 810 | 997 | 1173 | 1212 | 1082 | 909 | 779 | 772 | 0.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 365 | 494 | 553 | 590 | 1071 | 762 | 706 | 647 | 539 | 510 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Contingencies Vote |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 699 | 701 | 695 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;General government | 333 | 324 | 757 | 390 | 434 | 423 | 374 | 361 | 359 | 358 | 0.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt servicing | 535 | 534 | 526 | 525 | 508 | 595 | 745 | 910 | 1098 | 1298 | 10.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Operating expense** | **11081** | **11548** | **13073** | **13610** | **15090** | **15305** | **16039** | **16812** | **16730** | **16943** | 4.8 |
| **Real Per Capita Operating Expense (2024 $)** <sup>4</sup> | **13393** | **13640** | **15324** | **15519** | **16093** | **15709** | **16038** | **16442** | **15988** | **15861** | 1.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Growth rate (per cent) | 5.6 | 1.8 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 3.7 | -2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -2.8 | -0.8 | 2.7 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Numbers may not add due to rounding.

<sup>2</sup> Expense as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 expense divided by nominal GDP for the 2025 calendar year).

<sup>3</sup> Per capita expense is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2025/26 expense divided by population on July 1, 2025).

<sup>4</sup> Expense is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2025 CPI for 2025/26 expense).

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 83 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A9 Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) – 2018/19 to 2027/28** <sup>1</sup>

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  |<br>Actual<br>2018/19 |<br>Actual<br>2019/20 |<br>Actual<br>2020/21 |<br>Actual<br>2021/22 |<br>Actual<br>2022/23 |<br>Actual<br>2023/24 |<br>Actual<br>2024/25 | Updated<br>Forecast<br>2025/26 |<br>Plan<br>2026/27 |<br>Plan<br>2027/28 | Average<br>annual<br>change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Taxpayer-supported programs and agencies:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Ministries and special offices (CRF) | 30891 | 31774 | 32672 | 33400 | 33696 | 37008 | 39036 | 38900 | 38900 | 38900 | 2.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Service delivery agencies <sup>2</sup> | 5258 | 5985 | 6042 | 6767 | 7746 | 8666 | 9575 | 9857 | 9500 | 8513 | 5.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total FTEs** | **36149** | **37759** | **38714** | **40167** | **41442** | **45674** | **48611** | **48757** | **48400** | **47413** | 3.1 |
| **Growth rates (per cent):** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Ministries and special offices (CRF) | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Service delivery agencies | 3.6 | 13.8 | 1 | 12 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 2.9 | -3.6 | -10.4 | 5.6 |
| **Population per FTE:** <sup>3</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total FTEs | 138.9 | 135.4 | 133.7 | 130.1 | 129.3 | 121.1 | 117.2 | 117.3 | 117.9 | 121.3 | 30.6 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Full-time equivalents (FTEs) are a measure of staff employment. FTEs are calculated by dividing the total hours of employment paid for in a given period by the number of hours an individual, full-time person would normally work in that period. This does not equate to the physical number of employees. For example, two half-time employees would equal one FTE, or alternatively, three FTEs may represent two full-time employees who have worked sufficient overtime hours to equal an additional FTE.

<sup>2</sup> Service delivery agency FTE amounts do not include SUCH sector staff employment.

<sup>3</sup> Population per FTE is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. population on July 1, 2025 divided by 205/26 FTEs).

84 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A10 Capital Spending – 2018/19 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | | | | | | Updated | | | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Taxpayer-supported:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Education |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Schools districts | 626 | 877 | 944 | 1001 | 934 | 874 | 1199 | 1546 | 1561 | 1404 | 9.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 1024 | 936 | 904 | 899 | 1071 | 1227 | 1527 | 1661 | 1713 | 1369 | 3.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health | 904 | 1009 | 1162 | 1555 | 1915 | 2998 | 3226 | 4602 | 5497 | 5236 | 21.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority <sup>1</sup> | 853 | 955 | 1285 | 1364 | 1823 | 2263 | 3013 | 4751 | 4696 | 4540 | 20.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transit | 85 | 73 | 107 | 67 | 101 | 158 | 151 | 329 | 409 | 450 | 20.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Government direct (ministries) | 421 | 520 | 389 | 386 | 470 | 537 | 468 | 651 | 523 | 549 | 3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social Housing | 483 | 355 | 572 | 642 | 357 | 587 | 603 | 867 | 939 | 1039 | 8.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 56 | 47 | 65 | 88 | 85 | 128 | 192 | 257 | 146 | 65 | 1.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total taxpayer-supported** | **4452** | **4772** | **5428** | **6002** | **6756** | **8772** | **10379** | **14664** | **15484** | **14652** | 14.2 |
| **Self-supported:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Hydro | 3826 | 3082 | 3207 | 3475 | 3919 | 4263 | 4015 | 4469 | 4383 | 4390 | 1.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Columbia Basin power projects | 2 | 994 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Railway Company | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -18.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ICBC | 66 | 62 | 100 | 54 | 41 | 64 | 43 | 191 | 85 | 56 | -1.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Lottery Corporation <sup>2</sup> | 75 | 102 | 73 | 90 | 95 | 84 | 100 | 105 | 105 | 100 | 3.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Liquor Distribution Branch | 60 | 36 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 30 | -7.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other <sup>3</sup> | 44 | 104 | 65 | 78 | 78 | 143 | 202 | - | - | - | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total self-supported** | **4106** | **4386** | **3475** | **3730** | **4165** | **4584** | **4402** | **4818** | **4628** | **4593** | 1.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total capital spending** | **8558** | **9158** | **8903** | **9732** | **10921** | **13356** | **14781** | **19482** | **20112** | **19245** | 9.4 |
| **Per cent of nominal GDP:** <sup>4</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 | 8.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total** | 2.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4 | 3.7 |
| **Growth rates:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 13.9 | 7.2 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 29.8 | 18.3 | 41.3 | 5.6 | -5.4 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported | 50.5 | 6.8 | -20.8 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 10.1 | -4 | 9.5 | -3.9 | -0.8 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total** | 28.9 | 7 | -2.8 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 22.3 | 10.7 | 31.8 | 3.2 | -4.3 |  |
| **Per capita:** <sup>5</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 887 | 934 | 1049 | 1148 | 1261 | 1586 | 1821 | 2563 | 2713 | 2547 | 12.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported | 818 | 858 | 671 | 714 | 777 | 829 | 772 | 842 | 811 | 799 | -0.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total** | 1704 | 1792 | 1720 | 1862 | 2038 | 2415 | 2594 | 3405 | 3524 | 3346 | 7.8 |
| **Real Per Capita Capital Spending (2024 $)** <sup>6</sup> | **2060** | **2116** | **2016** | **2123** | **2174** | **2478** | **2594** | **3330** | **3367** | **3132** | 4.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Growth rate (per cent) | 23.4 | 2.7 | -4.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 14 | 4.7 | 28.4 | 1.1 | -7 |  |

---

<sup>1</sup> Includes Transportation Investment Plan capital spending and, beginning in 2017/18, Transportation Investment Corporation rehabilitation costs for the Port Mann Bridge due to reclassification from self-supported commercial Crown corporation to a taxpayer-supported agency in response to the cancellation of tolls. Effective April 1, 2018, Transportation Investment Corporation became a subsidiary of BCTFA.

<sup>2</sup> Forecasted amounts exclude right-of-use assets.

<sup>3</sup> Includes post-secondary institutions' self-supported subsidiaries.

<sup>4</sup> Capital spending as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 amounts divided by nominal GDP for the 2025 calendar year).

<sup>5</sup> Per capita capital spending is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2025/26 amounts divided by population on July 1, 2025).

<sup>6</sup> Capital spending is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2025 CPI for 2025/26 capital spending).

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 85 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A11 Statement of Financial Position – 2018/19 to 2027/28 <sup>1</sup>**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | | | | | | Updated | | | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Financial assets:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Cash and temporary investments | 3029 | 3985 | 6560 | 7142 | 8247 | 6768 | 13341 | 7786 | 7708 | 8117 | 11.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other financial assets | 12646 | 12413 | 15413 | 17109 | 19074 | 22057 | 24071 | 26663 | 28819 | 29833 | 10.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Sinking funds | 752 | 692 | 492 | 510 | 521 | 491 | 562 | 396 | 409 | 446 | -5.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investments in commercial Crown corporations: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Retained earnings | 5738 | 6523 | 9632 | 12426 | 12926 | 14677 | 16985 | 18526 | 19977 | 21418 | 15.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Recoverable capital loans | 22547 | 24768 | 26301 | 27218 | 28037 | 30572 | 33577 | 35708 | 38105 | 40125 | 6.6 |
|  | 28285 | 31291 | 35933 | 39644 | 40963 | 45249 | 50562 | 54234 | 58082 | 61543 | 9.0 |
| **Total financial assets** | **44712** | **48381** | **58398** | **64405** | **68805** | **74565** | **88536** | **89079** | **95018** | **99939** | 9.3 |
| **Liabilities:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Accounts payable, accrued liabilities & others | 12137 | 13100 | 14733 | 18509 | 25400 | 23769 | 24395 | 24859 | 23825 | 23852 | 7.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Deferred revenue | 9620 | 9895 | 11557 | 12796 | 14494 | 15082 | 16213 | 17804 | 19568 | 20876 | 9.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Debt: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported debt | 42681 | 46229 | 59750 | 62341 | 59888 | 75402 | 99089 | 117992 | 145974 | 171123 | 16.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported debt | 23281 | 25932 | 27350 | 28325 | 29492 | 32060 | 34788 | 37381 | 39762 | 41786 | 6.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial debt | 65962 | 72161 | 87100 | 90666 | 89380 | 107462 | 133877 | 155373 | 185736 | 212909 | 13.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;*Add:* debt offset by sinking funds | 752 | 692 | 492 | 510 | 521 | 491 | 562 | 396 | 409 | 446 | -5.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;*Add:* foreign exchange adjustments |  |  |  |  | 472 | 494 | 2434 | 958 | (28) | 166 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;*Less:* guarantees & non-guaranteed debt | (850) | (1337) | (1335) | (1402) | (1523) | (1476) | (1639) | (1679) | (2163) | (2467) | 12.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Financial statement debt | 65864 | 71516 | 86257 | 89774 | 88850 | 106971 | 135234 | 155048 | 183954 | 211054 | 13.8 |
| **Total liabilities** | **87621** | **94511** | **112547** | **121079** | **128744** | **145822** | **175842** | **197711** | **227347** | **255782** | 12.6 |
| **Net liabilities** | **(42909)** | **(46130)** | **(54149)** | **(56674)** | **(59939)** | **(71257)** | **(87306)** | **(108632)** | **(132329)** | **(155843)** | 15.4 |
| **Capital and other assets:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Tangible capital assets | 47909 | 50104 | 52861 | 56142 | 59818 | 65583 | 72736 | 84130 | 96153 | 107186 | 9.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Restricted assets | 1834 | 1931 | 2003 | 2147 | 2224 | 2352 | 2464 | 2536 | 2609 | 2683 | 4.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other assets | 952 | 1100 | 1582 | 1791 | 1347 | 1701 | 2096 | 1870 | 1855 | 1840 | 7.6 |
| **Total capital and other assets** | **50695** | **53135** | **56446** | **60080** | **63389** | **69636** | **77296** | **88536** | **100617** | **111709** | 9.2 |
| **Accumulated surplus (deficit)** | **7786** | **7005** | **2297** | **3406** | **3450** | **(1621)** | **(10010)** | **(20096)** | **(31712)** | **(44134)** |  |
| **Per cent of Nominal GDP: <sup>2</sup>** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Net liabilities | 14.4 | 14.9 | 17.6 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 17.4 | 20.5 | 24.5 | 28.6 | 32.4 | 9.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capital and other assets | 17.0 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 16.8 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 18.1 | 20.0 | 21.8 | 23.2 | 3.5 |
| **Growth rates:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Net liabilities | 1.2 | 7.5 | 17.4 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 18.9 | 22.5 | 24.4 | 21.8 | 17.8 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capital and other assets | 4.3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 11.0 | n/a |
| **Per capita: <sup>3</sup>** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Net liabilities | 8546 | 9026 | 10461 | 10843 | 11188 | 12882 | 15321 | 18988 | 23183 | 27094 | 13.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capital and other assets | 10097 | 10396 | 10905 | 11495 | 11832 | 12589 | 13564 | 15475 | 17627 | 19421 | 7.5 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Figures have been restated to reflect government's current accounting policies.

<sup>2</sup> Net liabilities as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 amount divided by GDP for the 2025 calendar year).

<sup>3</sup> Per capita net liabilities is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2025/26 amount divided by population on July 1, 2025).

86 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A12 Changes in Financial Position – 2018/19 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | | | | | | Updated | | | |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | 10-Year |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | Total |
| **(Surplus) deficit for the year** | **(1316)** | **531** | **5615** | **(1262)** | **(956)** | **5035** | **7347** | **11577** | **12645** | **12273** | **51489** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Change in remeasurement (gains) losses | (266) | 250 | (907) | 153 | 912 | 36 | 1042 | (1491) | (1029) | 149 | (1151) |
| Change in accumulated (surplus) deficit | **(1582)** | **781** | **4708** | **(1109)** | **(44)** | **5071** | **8389** | 10086 | 11616 | 12422 | 50338 |
| **Capital and other asset changes:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported capital investments | 4452 | 4772 | 5428 | 6002 | 6755 | 8772 | 10379 | 14664 | 15484 | 14652 | 91360 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;*Less:* amortization and other accounting changes | (2458) | (2577) | (2671) | (2721) | (3079) | (3007) | (3226) | (3270) | (3461) | (3619) | (30089) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase in net capital assets | 1994 | 2195 | 2757 | 3281 | 3676 | 5765 | 7153 | 11394 | 12023 | 11033 | 61271 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in restricted assets | 66 | 97 | 72 | 144 | 77 | 128 | 112 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 915 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in other assets | 20 | 148 | 482 | 209 | (444) | 354 | 395 | (226) | (15) | (15) | 908 |
| Change in capital and other assets | 2080 | 2440 | 3311 | 3634 | 3309 | 6247 | 7660 | 11240 | 12081 | 11092 | 63094 |
| **Increase (decrease) in net liabilities** | **498** | **3221** | **8019** | **2525** | **3265** | **11318** | **16049** | **21326** | **23697** | **23514** | **113432** |
| **Investment and working capital changes:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Investment in commercial Crown corporations: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in retained earnings | (396) | 785 | 3109 | 2794 | 500 | 1751 | 2308 | 1541 | 1451 | 1441 | 15284 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Self-supported capital investments | 4106 | 4386 | 3475 | 3730 | 4165 | 4584 | 4402 | 4818 | 4628 | 4593 | 42887 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;*Less:* loan repayments and other accounting changes | (2093) | (2165) | (1942) | (2813) | (3346) | (2049) | (1397) | (2687) | (2231) | (2573) | (23296) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Change in investment | 1617 | 3006 | 4642 | 3711 | 1319 | 4286 | 5313 | 3672 | 3848 | 3461 | 34875 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in cash and temporary investments | (411) | 956 | 2575 | 582 | 1105 | (1479) | 6573 | (5555) | (78) | 409 | 4677 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other working capital changes <sup>1</sup> | (1211) | (1531) | (495) | (3301) | (6613) | 3996 | 328 | 371 | 1439 | (284) | (7301) |
| **Change in investment and working capital** | **(5)** | **2431** | **6722** | **992** | **(4189)** | **6803** | **12214** | **(1512)** | **5209** | **3586** | **32251** |
| **Increase (decrease) in financial statement debt** | **493** | **5652** | **14741** | **3517** | **(924)** | **18121** | **28263** | **19814** | **28906** | **27100** | **145683** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(Increase) decrease in sinking fund debt | 596 | 60 | 200 | (18) | (11) | 30 | (71) | 166 | (13) | (37) | 902 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Change in foreign exchange adjustments |  |  |  |  | (472) | (22) | (1940) | 1476 | 986 | (194) | (166) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in guarantees | (2) | 57 | 113 | 9 | (227) | (80) | 172 |  | 500 | 300 | 842 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Increase (decrease) in non-guaranteed debt | (44) | 430 | (115) | 58 | 348 | 33 | (9) | 40 | (16) | 4 | 729 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Increase (decrease) in total provincial debt** | **1043** | **6199** | **14939** | **3566** | **(1286)** | **18082** | **26415** | **21496** | **30363** | **27173** | **147990** |
| **Represented by increase (decrease) in:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Taxpayer-supported debt** | **(926)** | **3548** | **13521** | **2591** | **(2453)** | **15514** | **23687** | **18903** | **27982** | **25149** | **127516** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Self-supported debt** | **1969** | **2651** | **1418** | **975** | **1167** | **2568** | **2728** | **2593** | **2381** | **2024** | **20474** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total provincial debt** | **1043** | **6199** | **14939** | **3566** | **(1286)** | **18082** | **26415** | **21496** | **30363** | **27173** | **147990** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Includes changes in other financial assets, sinking funds, accounts payable, deferred revenue and other accrued liabilities.

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 87 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A13 Provincial Debt – 2018/19 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | | | | | | Updated | | | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Taxpayer-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Provincial government** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Operating | - | - | 8746 | 7233 | - | 8729 | 24516 | 32054 | 45942 | 58048 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Capital <sup>1</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;K-12 education | 8885 | 9757 | 10529 | 11342 | 10893 | 11643 | 12563 | 13685 | 14986 | 16193 | 6.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 4607 | 4917 | 5426 | 5732 | 5502 | 5979 | 6663 | 7409 | 8257 | 9075 | 7.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health facilities | 6173 | 6705 | 7484 | 8223 | 8286 | 10109 | 12559 | 15744 | 19903 | 24063 | 16.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Ministries general capital | 2363 | 3133 | 3702 | 4087 | 4549 | 5084 | 5552 | 6103 | 6526 | 6975 | 12.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Transportation | 5401 | 5401 | 5401 | 5401 | 5391 | 5391 | 5330 | 5330 | 5331 | 5332 | -0.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social housing | 619 | 805 | 1062 | 1424 | 1648 | 2024 | 2386 | 2936 | 3647 | 4489 | 24.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other <sup>2</sup> | 242 | 252 | 268 | 278 | 269 | 352 | 486 | 620 | 661 | 671 | 12.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total capital | 28290 | 30970 | 33872 | 36487 | 36538 | 40582 | 45539 | 51827 | 59311 | 66798 | 10.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total provincial government** | **28290** | **30970** | **42618** | **43720** | **36538** | **49311** | **70055** | **83881** | **105253** | **124846** | 17.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Taxpayer-supported entities:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;School districts | 19 | 24 | 25 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 6 | -12.0 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institutions | 763 | 753 | 882 | 922 | 910 | 897 | 976 | 986 | 1035 | 1063 | 3.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Health Authorities and Hospital Societies | 1795 | 1802 | 1875 | 1839 | 1983 | 2387 | 2333 | 2283 | 2229 | 2170 | 2.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transportation Financing Authority | 11293 | 12193 | 13321 | 14615 | 18946 | 21286 | 24078 | 28835 | 33558 | 38483 | 14.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Pavilion Corporation | 138 | 135 | 132 | 129 | 126 | 123 | 119 | 116 | 112 | 108 | -2.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Transit | 73 | 65 | 60 | 56 | 53 | 109 | 119 | 120 | 211 | 391 | 20.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;InBC Investment Corp. | 70 | 45 | 37 | 19 | 21 | 60 | 117 | 165 | 245 | 337 | 19.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Social housing | 225 | 222 | 770 | 974 | 1241 | 1182 | 1237 | 1560 | 2792 | 2910 | 32.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 15 | 26 | 31 | 42 | 49 | 28 | 35 | 31 | 529 | 809 | 55.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total taxpayer-supported entities** | **14391** | **15259** | **17132** | **18621** | **23350** | **26091** | **29034** | **34111** | **40721** | **46277** | 13.9 |
| **Total taxpayer-supported debt** | **42681** | **46229** | **59750** | **62341** | **59888** | **75402** | **99089** | **117992** | **145974** | **171123** | 16.7 |
| **Self-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporations and agencies |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Hydro | 22064 | 23238 | 24650 | 25611 | 26707 | 29351 | 31890 | 34379 | 36767 | 38829 | 6.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Liquor Distribution Branch |  | 210 | 233 | 230 | 242 | 233 | 233 | 207 | 210 | 220 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;BC Lottery Corporation | 100 | 233 | 228 | 195 | 201 | 169 | 189 | 203 | 211 | 185 | 7.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Columbia Basin power projects | 418 | 1387 | 1349 | 1319 | 1298 | 1265 | 1227 | 1195 | 1171 | 1152 | 11.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Columbia Power Corporation | 282 | 276 | 271 | 266 | 270 | 266 | 259 | 251 | 242 | 231 | -2.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Post-secondary institution subsidiaries | 387 | 504 | 520 | 615 | 685 | 682 | 896 | 915 | 915 | 915 | 10.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Other | 30 | 84 | 99 | 89 | 89 | 94 | 94 | 231 | 246 | 254 | 26.8 |
| **Total self-supported debt** | **23281** | **25932** | **27350** | **28325** | **29492** | **32060** | **34788** | **37381** | **39762** | **41786** | 6.7 |
| **Total provincial debt** | **65962** | **72161** | **87100** | **90666** | **89380** | **107462** | **133877** | **155373** | **185736** | **212909** | 13.9 |

---

<sup>1</sup> Includes debt incurred by the government to fund the building and construction of capital assets in the education, health, social housing and other sectors.

<sup>2</sup> Forecast includes potential provincial First Nation equity loan guarantees that may be authorized by Treasury Board under the First Nations Equity Financing program.

88 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A14 Provincial Debt Supplementary Information – 2018/19 to 2027/28 <sup>1</sup>**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | | | | | | | | Updated | | | Average |
|  | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Forecast | Plan | Plan | annual |
| ($ millions) | 2018-19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| **Per cent of nominal GDP:** <sup>2</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Taxpayer-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial government direct operating |  |  | 2.8 | 2.0 |  | 2.1 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 12.1 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial government capital | 9.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 4.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial government | 9.5 | 10.0 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 16.4 | 18.9 | 22.8 | 25.9 | 11.8 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported entities | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total taxpayer-supported debt | 14.4 | 15.0 | 19.4 | 17.5 | 15.1 | 18.4 | 23.2 | 26.6 | 31.6 | 35.5 | 10.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Self-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporations & agencies | 7.8 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 1.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total provincial debt** | **22.2** | **23.4** | **28.3** | **25.4** | **22.6** | **26.2** | **31.4** | **35.0** | **40.2** | **44.2** | 8.0 |
| **Growth rates (per cent):** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Taxpayer-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial government direct operating | -100.0 |  | -17.3 | -100.0 |  | 180.9 | 30.7 | 43.3 | 26.4 |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial government capital | -2.0 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 12.6 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported entities | 2070.6 | 6.0 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 25.4 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 17.5 | 19.4 | 13.6 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total taxpayer-supported debt | 39.0 | 8.3 | 29.2 | 4.3 | -3.9 | 25.9 | 31.4 | 19.1 | 23.7 | 17.2 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Self-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporations & agencies | 9.2 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total provincial debt** | **26.8** | **9.4** | **20.7** | **4.1** | **-1.4** | **20.2** | **24.6** | **16.1** | **19.5** | **14.6** |  |
| **Per capita:** <sup>3</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Taxpayer-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial government direct operating |  |  | 1690 | 1384 |  | 1578 | 4302 | 5603 | 8049 | 10092 | n/a |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Provincial government capital | 5634 | 6059 | 6544 | 6981 | 6820 | 7336 | 7991 | 9059 | 10391 | 11613 | 8.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported entities | 2866 | 2986 | 3310 | 3563 | 4358 | 4717 | 5095 | 5962 | 7134 | 8045 | 12.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total taxpayer-supported debt | 8501 | 9045 | 11543 | 11927 | 11178 | 13631 | 17389 | 20624 | 25574 | 29751 | 14.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Self-supported debt:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Commercial Crown corporations & agencies | 4637 | 5074 | 5284 | 5419 | 5505 | 5796 | 6105 | 6534 | 6966 | 7265 | 5.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;**Total provincial debt** | **13137** | **14119** | **16827** | **17347** | **16683** | **19427** | **23494** | **27158** | **32540** | **37015** | 12.2 |
| **Real Per Capita Provincial Debt (2024 $)** <sup>4</sup> | **15879** | **16676** | **19725** | **19781** | **17795** | **19941** | **23494** | **26559** | **31097** | **34649** | 9.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Growth rate (per cent) | 21.3 | 5.0 | 18.3 | 0.3 | -10.0 | 12.1 | 17.8 | 13.0 | 17.1 | 11.4 |  |

---

<sup>1</sup> Numbers may not add due to rounding.

<sup>2</sup> Debt as a per cent of GDP is calculated using nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 debt divided by nominal GDP for the 2025 calendar year).

<sup>3</sup> Per capita debt is calculated using July 1 population (e.g. 2025/26 debt divided by population on July 1, 2025).

<sup>4</sup> Debt is converted to real (inflation-adjusted) terms using the consumer price index (CPI) for the corresponding calendar year (e.g. 2025 CPI for 2025/26 debt).

First Quarterly Report 2025/26 \| 89 <br>

Appendix – Fiscal Plan Update

**Table A15 Key Provincial Debt Indicators – 2018/19 to 2027/28**

---

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | <br>Actual<br>2018/19 | <br>Actual<br>2019/20 | <br>Actual<br>2020/21 | <br>Actual<br>2021/22 | <br>Actual<br>2022/23 | <br>Actual<br>2023/24 | <br>Actual<br>2024/25 | Updated<br>Forecast<br>2025/26 | <br>Plan<br>2026/27 | <br>Plan<br>2027/28 | Average<br>annual<br>change |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (per cent) |
| Debt to revenue (per cent) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial | 89.7 | 95.9 | 115.2 | 104.4 | 90.7 | 113.4 | 134.8 | 154.8 | 184.0 | 204.1 | 9.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 75.3 | 80.6 | 101.4 | 90.9 | 74.3 | 97.9 | 122.7 | 147.0 | 182.8 | 208.5 | 12.0 |
| Debt per capita ($) <sup>1</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial | 13137 | 14119 | 16828 | 17346 | 16685 | 19426 | 23495 | 27158 | 32540 | 37015 | 12.2 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 8500 | 9045 | 11544 | 11927 | 11179 | 13630 | 17390 | 20624 | 25574 | 29750 | 14.9 |
| Debt to nominal GDP (per cent) <sup>2</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial | 22.2 | 23.4 | 28.3 | 25.4 | 22.6 | 26.2 | 31.4 | 35.0 | 40.2 | 44.2 | 8.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 14.4 | 15.0 | 19.4 | 17.5 | 15.1 | 18.4 | 23.2 | 26.6 | 31.6 | 35.5 | 10.6 |
| Interest bite (cents per dollar of revenue) <sup>3</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 7.7 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 10.2 |
| Interest costs ($ millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial | 2786 | 2872 | 2817 | 2848 | 3116 | 3647 | 4600 | 5328 | 6447 | 7674 | 11.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 1793 | 1807 | 1832 | 1896 | 2032 | 2444 | 3278 | 4034 | 5069 | 6198 | 14.8 |
| Interest rate (per cent) <sup>4</sup> |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | -0.7 |
| **Background Information:** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Revenue ($ millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial <sup>5</sup> | 73556 | 75283 | 75583 | 86832 | 98583 | 94769 | 99315 | 100389 | 100939 | 104322 | 4.0 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported <sup>6</sup> | 56703 | 57386 | 58925 | 68587 | 80575 | 77043 | 80729 | 80274 | 79843 | 82092 | 4.2 |
| Debt ($ millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Total provincial | 65962 | 72161 | 87100 | 90666 | 89380 | 107462 | 133877 | 155373 | 185736 | 212909 | 13.9 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taxpayer-supported <sup>7</sup> | 42681 | 46229 | 59750 | 62341 | 59888 | 75402 | 99089 | 117992 | 145974 | 171123 | 16.7 |
| Provincial nominal GDP ($ millions) <sup>8</sup> | 297392 | 308993 | 307412 | 357002 | 395629 | 409881 | 426544 | 443522 | 462313 | 481660 | 5.5 |
| Population (thousands at July 1) <sup>9</sup> | 5021 | 5111 | 5176 | 5227 | 5357 | 5532 | 5698 | 5721 | 5708 | 5752 | 1.5 |

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<sup>1</sup> The ratio of debt to population (e.g. 2025/26 debt divided by population at July 1, 2025).

<sup>2</sup> The ratio of debt outstanding at fiscal year end to provincial nominal gross domestic product (GDP) for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. 2025/26 debt divided by 2025 nominal GDP).

<sup>3</sup> The ratio of interest costs (less sinking fund interest) to revenue. Figures include capitalized interest expense in order to provide a more comparable measure to outstanding debt.

<sup>4</sup> Weighted average of all outstanding debt issues.

<sup>5</sup> Includes revenue of the consolidated revenue fund (excluding dividends from enterprises) plus revenue of all government organizations and enterprises.

<sup>6</sup> Excludes revenue of government enterprises, but includes dividends from enterprises paid to the consolidated revenue fund.

<sup>7</sup> Excludes debt of commercial Crown corporations and agencies and funds held under the province's warehouse borrowing program.

<sup>8</sup> Nominal GDP for the calendar year ending in the fiscal year (e.g. nominal GDP for 2025 is used for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026).

<sup>9</sup> Population at July 1st within the fiscal year (e.g. population at July 1, 2025 is used for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026).

90 \| First Quarterly Report 2025/26 <br>

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