# EDGAR Filing Document

**Accession Number:** 0000074615
**File Stem:** 0001193125-23-040731
**Filing Date:** 2023-2
**Character Count:** 52182
**Document Hash:** bd891d0a1bb967eaa97064659bdc77da
**Contains OCR:** False
**Source Format:** 

## Filing Content

## Filing Summary
**0001193125-23-040731.hdr.sgml**: 20230216

**ACCESSION NUMBER**: 0001193125-23-040731

**CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE**: 18-K/A

**PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT**: 5

**CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT**: 20220331

**FILED AS OF DATE**: 20230216

**DATE AS OF CHANGE**: 20230216

**FILER**: 

**COMPANY DATA:**
- **COMPANY CONFORMED NAME:** ONTARIO PROVINCE OF
- **CENTRAL INDEX KEY:** 0000074615
- **STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION:** FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS [8888]
- **IRS NUMBER:** 000000000
- **FISCAL YEAR END:** 0331

**FILING VALUES:**
- **FORM TYPE:** 18-K/A
- **SEC ACT:** 1934 Act
- **SEC FILE NUMBER:** 002-31357
- **FILM NUMBER:** 23637177

**BUSINESS ADDRESS:**
- **STREET 1:** 1 DUNDAS STREET WEST
- **STREET 2:** SUITE 1400
- **CITY:** TORONTO
- **STATE:** A6
- **ZIP:** M5G 1Z3
- **BUSINESS PHONE:** (416) 845-1708

**MAIL ADDRESS:**
- **STREET 1:** 1 DUNDAS STREET WEST
- **STREET 2:** SUITE 1400
- **CITY:** TORONTO
- **STATE:** A6
- **ZIP:** M5G 1Z3

**FORMER COMPANY:**
- **FORMER CONFORMED NAME:** PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
- **DATE OF NAME CHANGE:** 19911101

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**UNITED STATES** 

**SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION** 

**Washington, D.C. 20549** 

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**FORM 18-K** 

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**For Foreign Governments and Political Subdivisions Thereof** 

**AMENDMENT NO. 1** 

**TO** 

**ANNUAL REPORT** 

**of** 

## PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
**(Canada)** 

**(Name of Registrant)** 

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**Date of end of last fiscal year: March 31, 2022** 

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**SECURITIES REGISTERED\*** 

**(As of the close of the fiscal year)** 

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| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
| **Title of Issue** | **Amounts as to**<br> **which registration**<br> **is effective** | **Names of**<br> **exchanges on**<br> **which registered** |
| N/A | N/A | N/A |

---

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**Name and address of persons authorized to receive notices and** 

**communications from the Securities and Exchange Commission:** 

**Andre Frenetté** 

**Head of Mission** 

**Acting Consul General** 

**Consulate General of Canada** 

**466 Lexington Ave** 

**New York, New York 10017** 

**United States of America** 

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**Copies to:** 

**Jason R. Lehner** 

**Shearman & Sterling LLP** 

**Commerce Court West, 199 Bay Street** 

**Suite 4405, P.O. Box 247** 

**Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5L IE8** 

\* The Registrant is filing this annual report on a voluntary basis.

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**PROVINCE OF ONTARIO** 

The undersigned registrant hereby amends its Annual Report on Form 18-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2022 (the "Annual Report") as follows:

The following additional exhibit is added to the Annual Report:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Exhibit (99.3) 2022-23 Third Quarter Finances

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**SIGNATURE** 

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this amendment to the annual report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized, at Toronto, Ontario.

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| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
|  |  | PROVINCE OF ONTARIO |
|  |  | (Name of registrant) |
| February 16, 2023 | By: | /s/ Opallycia A. Kandelas |
|  | Name: | Opallycia A. Kandelas |
|  | Title: | Director, Capital Markets Operations |
|  |  | Capital Markets Division |
|  |  | Ontario Financing Authority |

---

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**EXHIBIT INDEX** 

Exhibit (99.3): 2022-23 Third Quarter Finances

## Exhibit 99.3

**Exhibit 99.3**![LOGO](g409171g07d10.jpg)

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| | |
|:---|:---|
| **MINISTRY OF FINANCE** |  |
|  **2022–23 Third Quarter Finances** | **February 2023** |

---

---

| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
|  **Contents**<br>|  | The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario's 2022–23 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2022. |
|  Introduction<br>| 2 <br>| The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario's 2022–23 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2022. |
| A. Ontario's 2022–23 Fiscal Outlook<br>| 3 <br>| The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario's 2022–23 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2022. |
| B. Ontario's Recent Economic Performance and Outlook<br>| 11 <br>| The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario's 2022–23 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2022. |
| C. Details of Ontario's Finances<br>| 14 <br>| The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario's 2022–23 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2022. |
| D. Ontario's 2022–23 Borrowing Program | 21 | The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario's 2022–23 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2022. |

---

**Highlights** 

• Ontario's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.4 per cent in the third calendar quarter of 2022,
following a 0.9 per cent gain in the second quarter of 2022. Real GDP in the third quarter was 4.0 per cent above the pre-pandemic level in the fourth quarter of 2019.

• Compared to the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* (also referred to as the Fall Economic Statement,
or FES), the estimated projection for both real and nominal GDP growth in 2022 has been revised upwards, while the private sector projection for real and nominal GDP growth in 2023 has been revised downwards.

• As of the *2022–23 Third Quarter Finances*, the province's 2022–23 deficit is projected to be
$6.5 billion — $13.3 billion lower than the outlook published in the *2022 Budget*, and $6.4 billion lower than the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*, **  primarily due to higher than forecast
taxation revenues. Similar updates have been seen in other jurisdictions across Canada.

• Revenues in 2022–23 are projected to be $16.6 billion higher than forecast in the *2022 Budget* and $9.6 billion higher than expected in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*, mainly reflecting stronger than expected taxation revenues as a result of higher net tax assessments for
2021 and prior years, based on new information from the Canada Revenue Agency, received since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

• Overall program expense in 2022–23 is projected to be $188.6 billion, $3.4 billion higher than forecast in
both the *2022 Budget* and the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*, mostly due to significant one-time costs associated with ongoing land and land-related claims
with Indigenous communities *.* 

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## Introduction

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Amid global geopolitical conflict, high inflation, rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain challenges, Ontario's economy has remained resilient in the face of ongoing uncertainty, with real gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to have increased by 3.7 per cent in 2022.

Ontario's economy is not immune to an expected economic slowdown in 2023, as demonstrated by private sector forecasters revising their GDP forecasts lower, on average, for that year, since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. That is why the government is maintaining its responsible fiscal plan, which includes ensuring fiscal policy works in tandem with monetary policy, while delivering on its Plan to Build.

Against this backdrop, the government is remaining transparent and accountable by releasing the *2022–23 Third Quarter Finances*, which provides updated information about the evolution of Ontario's economic and fiscal outlook since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

The government plans to provide its next economic and fiscal update as part of the *2023 Budget*, on or before March 31, 2023.

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## Section A: Ontario's 2022–23 Fiscal Outlook

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The province's 2022–23 deficit is projected to be $6.5 billion — $13.3 billion lower than the outlook published in the *2022 Budget*, and $6.4 billion lower than the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*, primarily due to higher than forecast taxation revenues.

Revenues in 2022–23 are projected to be $196.4 billion, $16.6 billion higher than forecast in the *2022 Budget* and $9.6 billion higher than projected in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. The increased revenue forecast reflects stronger than expected taxation revenues as a result of higher net tax assessments for 2021 and prior years, based on new information received from the Canada Revenue Agency since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. Similar to other provinces, Ontario incorporates updated information received from the Canada Revenue Agency into its regular financial updates.

Overall program expense in 2022–23 is projected to be $188.6 billion, $3.4 billion higher than forecast in both the *2022 Budget* and the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. Increases in program expense since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* are primarily due to significant one-time costs associated with ongoing land and land-related claims with Indigenous communities, where Ontario is in active negotiations, or claims are accepted for negotiation or are under review<sup>1</sup>.

Other program expense increases since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* include: spending related to reopening of colleges and its resulting additional on-campus activity; the government's commitment to support the City of Toronto, to address a portion of its 2022 operating deficit; and additional funding for prevention and containment of COVID-19 at long-term care homes. These expenses have been partially offset by additional third-party revenues from colleges, ministry underspending, particularly for infrastructure projects, and through the drawdown of existing contingencies within the fiscal plan.

Interest on debt is projected to be $13.4 billion, slightly lower than the $13.5 billion forecast in the *2022 Budget* and approximately $0.2 billion lower than the $13.6 billion projection in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*, due to a lower deficit than previously estimated partially offset by higher than forecast interest rates.

As a result of the lower deficit, the net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 38.3 per cent in 2022–23, 3.1 percentage points lower than the 41.4 per cent forecast in the *2022 Budget* and 0.1 percentage points lower than projected in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

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<sup>1</sup> Potential liability for these claims is recorded if the settlement of the claim is assessed as likely and the amount of the settlement can be reasonably estimated. 

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The *2022 Budget* included a $1.0 billion reserve in 2022–23, to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province's revenue and expense forecasts. This reserve has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook. It provides additional prudence in the government's fiscal framework and is distinct from contingency funds that set aside dedicated funding to be allocated in response to emerging needs. If not needed, the reserve is eliminated at year-end as part of the final projection for 2022–23 published in the *2023 Budget*.

**Table 1** 

**2022–23 In-Year Fiscal Performance** 

**($ Millions)** 

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| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| | ***2022 Budget*** | **Current Outlook** | **In-Year Change** |
|  **Revenue** | **179798** | **196447** | **16649** |
|  **Expense** |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Programs | 185163 | 188554 | 3392 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Interest on Debt | 13485 | 13442 | (43) |
|  **Total Expense** | **198648** | **201996** | **3349** |
|  **Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve** | **(18850)** | **(5549)** | **13301** |
|  Reserve | 1000 | 1000 | – |
|  **Surplus/(Deficit)** | **(19850)** | **(6549)** | **13301** |

---

*Notes:* Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2022, as well as other significant updates to the fiscal plan.

*Sources:* Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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**Revenue** 

Revenues in 2022–23 are projected to be $196.4 billion, $16.6 billion higher than forecast in the *2022 Budget* and $9.6 billion higher than forecast in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

The forecast for **Total Taxation Revenue** increased by $8.7 billion, compared to the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. Key changes in the taxation revenue outlook, compared to the *2022 Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review,* include:

• **Corporations Tax** revenue increased by $5.0 billion, mainly due to higher amounts from processing 2021 and
prior year tax returns by the Canada Revenue Agency;

• **Sales Tax** revenue increased by $3.4 billion, largely due to an upward revision by the federal government, in
December of 2022, to Ontario's 2021 HST official entitlements;

• **Personal Income Tax** revenue increased by $0.5 billion, mainly due to higher compensation of employees growth
for 2022, reflecting strong growth in employment;

• **Land Transfer Tax** is $233 million lower, reflecting slowing activity in the housing market; and

• **All Other Taxes** combined increased by $83 million, mainly due to higher revenues from the Gasoline Tax and
Education Property Tax, partially offset by lower revenues from the Employer Health Tax, Ontario Health Premium and Fuel Tax.

Net income from **Government Business Enterprises** is $251 million higher, mainly due to higher net income from Ontario Power Generation, reflecting higher production and lower costs, and partially offset by lower revenue from the LCBO, reflecting lower than anticipated sales.

Projected **Government of Canada Transfers** decreased by $207 million since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review,* mainly due to lower revenues received as a result of slower than expected progress on projects under the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program.

**Other Non-Tax Revenues** combined are projected to increase by $898 million, due to higher third-party revenues from colleges reflecting projected growth in international student enrolments and revenues from other on-campus services.

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**Table 2** 

**Key Changes to 2022–23 Revenue Projections** 

**($ Millions)** 

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| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
| | | **2022–23** |
|  ***2022 Budget* Total Revenue Outlook** |  | **179798** |
|  **Revenue Changes in the *2022–23 First Quarter Finances*** |  | 1204 |
|  **Revenue Changes in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*** |  | 5820 |
|  **Revenue Changes Since the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*** |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Corporations Tax | 4960 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Sales Tax | 3420 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Income Tax | 453 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Land Transfer Tax | (233) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; All Other Taxes | 83 |  |
|  Total Taxation Revenue |  | 8683 |
|  Government of Canada Transfers |  | (207) |
|  Government Business Enterprises |  | 251 |
|  Other Non-Tax Revenue |  | 898 |
|  **Total Revenue Changes Since the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*** |  | **9626** |
|  ***2022–23 Third Quarter Finances* Total Revenue Outlook** |  | **196447** |

---

*Notes:* Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2022, as well as other significant updates to the fiscal plan.

*Source:* Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Additional developments could materially affect the 2022–23 revenue outlook as new information becomes available during and well after the end of the 2022–23 fiscal year. These include changes to the economic growth outlook, the results from 2022 tax return processing, revenue collections from Ontario-administered taxes and the earnings of government business enterprises. The government will monitor these developments and provide further details in future fiscal updates.

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**Expense** 

Total expense is projected to be $202.0 billion, or $3.3 billion higher than the *2022 Budget* projection and $3.2 billion higher than the projection at the time of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.* Changes to expense since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* are largely driven by ongoing land and land related claims with Indigenous communities, where Ontario is in active negotiations, or claims are accepted for negotiation or are under review.

Other program expense increases include: spending related to reopening of colleges following the easing of public health restrictions and resulting additional on-campus activity; the government's commitment to support the City of Toronto, to address a portion of its 2022 operating deficit; and additional funding for prevention and containment of COVID-19 at long-term care homes. These expenses have been partially offset by additional third-party revenues from colleges, ministry underspending, particularly for infrastructure projects, and through the drawdown of existing contingencies within the fiscal plan.

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**Table 3** 

**Key Changes to 2022–23 Total Expense Projections** 

**($ Millions)** 

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| | | |
|:---|:---|:---|
| | | **2022–23** |
|  ***2022 Budget* Total Expense Outlook** |  | **198648** |
|  **Total Expense Changes in the *2022–23 First Quarter Finances***  |  | **105** |
|  **Total Expense Changes in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review***  |  | **15** |
|  **Total Program Expense Changes Since the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*:** |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Land and Land Related Claims | 5000 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; College Sector Spending – Consolidation | 727 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Support for a Portion of the City of Toronto's 2022 Operating Deficit | 235 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Prevention and Containment of COVID-19 in Long-Term Care Homes | 183 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Additional Funding for the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario | 35 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Additional Resources for the Landlord and Tenant Board and Ontario Land Tribunal | 4 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Enhancement of Emergency Management Ontario | 3 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP) Underspending | (90) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade Savings | (102) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Public Safety Radio Network (PSRN) Underspending | (155) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ministry of Infrastructure Program Underspending | (700) |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; All Other Changes | (10) |  |
|  **Total Program Expense Changes** |  | **5130** |
|  Net Drawdown of the Contingency Fund |  | (1738) |
|  **Total Net Program Expense Changes Since the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*** |  | **3392** |
|  Interest on Debt Change Since the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*  |  | (163) |
|  **Total Expense Changes Since the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review***  |  | **3229** |
|  ***2022–23 Third Quarter Finances* Total Expense Outlook** |  | **201996** |

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*Notes:* Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2022, as well as other significant updates to the fiscal plan.

*Sources:* Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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***Program Expense Update***

Total program expense in 2022–23 is projected to be $188.6 billion, $3.4 billion higher than forecast in both the *2022 Budget* and the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. Increases in program expense since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* are primarily due to significant one-time costs associated with ongoing land and land-related claims with Indigenous communities.

Details of key changes to program expense projections since the release of the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* include the following:

• $5.0 billion in one-time expense associated with ongoing land and land
related claims with Indigenous communities, where Ontario is in active negotiations, or claims are accepted for negotiation or are under review;

• $727 million in accounting adjustments for higher than forecast college sector spending from increased on-campus activities following the easing of public health restrictions, offset by third-party revenues;

• $235 million to support a portion of the City of Toronto's operating deficit with up to one third of the
city's projected 2022 COVID-19 pressures, ensuring continued operations and the provision of public services;

• $183 million to help long-term care homes prevent and contain the spread of COVID-19, including increased staffing supports;

• $35 million to support the operations of the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario, primarily as a result of
reduced recoveries from regulated sectors;

• $4 million for additional resources for the Landlord and Tenant Board and Ontario Land Tribunal, to improve service
standards and facilitate the faster resolution of disputes in order to increase housing supply; and

• $3 million in additional funding to support increased capacity at Emergency Management Ontario, to better respond to
future public health threats.

Other changes to program expense, representing ministry savings and underspending, are outlined below. Through the course of the year, circumstances may give rise to savings and underspending due to effective fiscal management to obtain greater value for money, changes to program take-up, federal program changes, delays by project partners outside of the government's direct control and other factors:

• $90 million in underspending in the Ministry of Colleges and Universities, related to lower than expected student
uptake for financial assistance;

• $102 million in underspending for the Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, due to updated
timing of initiative delivery into future years;

• $155 million in underspending in the Ministry of the Solicitor General, related to the Public Safety Radio Network;

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• $700 million in underspending in the Ministry of Infrastructure, accompanied by a reduction in federal revenue of
$170 million, due to revised implementation timelines for a number of planned infrastructure projects, including those related to high-speed internet and the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program; and

• All Other Changes of $10 million in underspending.

$1.7 billion in program expense changes have been offset from contingencies.

***Interest on Debt Expense Update***

Interest on debt expense is projected to be $13.4 billion, slightly lower than the $13.5 billion forecast in the *2022 Budget* and approximately $0.2 billion lower than the $13.6 billion projection in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. Due to rising interest rates, Ontario's cost of borrowing has, however, increased to 4.0 per cent, which is higher than the 3.4 per cent forecast in the *2022 Budget* but lower than the 4.2 per cent forecast in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

**Fiscal Prudence**

The *Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019* requires Ontario's fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen changes in the province's revenue and expense, including those resulting from Ontario's economic performance. The *2022 Budget* included a reserve of $1.0 billion in 2022–23, which has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook. If not needed, the reserve is eliminated at year-end as part of the final projection for 2022–23 published in the *2023 Budget.* In addition, the Contingency Fund is maintained to help mitigate expense risks — for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised, and for contingent liabilities associated with claims by Indigenous communities — and unforeseen events which may otherwise adversely affect Ontario's fiscal performance. The remaining balance of the Contingency Fund is projected to be $1.8 billion for 2022–23.

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| | |
|:---|:---|
| **Section B:** | Ontario's Recent Economic Performance and Outlook  |

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**Recent Economic Performance** 

In the third calendar quarter of 2022, Ontario's real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded its fifth consecutive quarter of growth, increasing 0.4 per cent and thus exceeding the pre-pandemic level by 4.0 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, Ontario's real GDP growth slowed from a 0.9 per cent increase in the second quarter of 2022, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors such as consumer spending and housing, which coincided with continued tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.

Ontario's labour market remained strong in 2022, with employment rising by 338,300, following a gain of 367,400 in 2021. Most of the net employment gains in 2022 were in full-time (84 per cent of the total), private sector (74 per cent of the total) jobs. In addition, the unemployment rate remained near historic lows, ending the year at 5.3 per cent in December 2022.

![LOGO](g409171g17d11.jpg)

Like many other economies around the world, inflation in Ontario rose strongly in 2022, in part due to a rebound in demand, supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices further exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Over the last several months, inflation pressures have begun to ease but

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remain elevated. Ontario's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 6.0 per cent in December 2022, compared to a year earlier, moderating from a recent peak of 7.9 per cent in June 2022.

**Economic Outlook** 

The outlook for global growth has weakened, partly due to the impacts of tighter monetary policy as central banks around the world address elevated price inflation. The International Monetary Fund estimates global real GDP grew 3.4 per cent in 2022, and projects real GDP to increase 2.9 per cent in 2023. U.S. real GDP increased by 2.1 per cent in 2022 and is projected to rise 0.5 per cent in 2023, according to *Blue Chip Economic Indicators*.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that Ontario real GDP increased 3.7 per cent in 2022, which is higher than the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* planning assumption of 2.6 per cent. Ontario nominal GDP is estimated to have increased 9.4 per cent in 2022, slightly above the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* planning assumption of 9.2 per cent.

Private sector forecasters, on average, project Ontario's real GDP to rise by 0.3 percent in 2023, compared to the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* planning assumption of 0.5 per cent. Ontario's nominal GDP is projected to rise by 2.9 per cent in 2023, compared to the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review* planning assumption of 3.5 per cent, due largely to weaker GDP inflation expectations.

![LOGO](g409171g18d12.jpg)

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The future path of price inflation is a key risk to the economic outlook. In 2022, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates significantly to help reduce inflation. In recent months, inflation has begun to moderate, helped by lower energy prices. If inflation remains above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target for longer than expected, the Bank may increase interest rates more than expected, which risks further negative impacts on the economy. Conversely, there is also an upside risk that inflation may moderate more quickly than expected, allowing the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates sooner than expected, which would support economic growth.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains an ongoing source of global economic uncertainty and continues to impact commodity markets and global supply chains. On the other hand, the loosening of pandemic-related health restrictions in China and the subsequent increase in economic activity could help further ease global supply chain disruptions and boost global GDP growth.

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## Section C: Details of Ontario's Finances

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**Table 4** 

**Revenue** 

**($ Millions)** 

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| | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | |
| | ***2022<br>Budget*** | **Current<br>Outlook** | **In-Year<br>Change** | |
|  **Taxation Revenue** | | | | |
|  Personal Income Tax | 44584 | 50791 | 6207 |  |
|  Sales Tax | 32287 | 35858 | 3571 |  |
|  Corporations Tax | 19736 | 27625 | 7889 |  |
|  Education Property Tax | 5652 | 5804 | 152 |  |
|  Employer Health Tax | 7842 | 7738 | (104) |  |
|  Ontario Health Premium | 4722 | 4663 | (59) |  |
|  Gasoline Tax | 2088 | 1962 | (126) |  |
|  Land Transfer Tax | 5686 | 4152 | (1534) |  |
|  Tobacco Tax | 953 | 851 | (102) |  |
|  Fuel Tax | 703 | 557 | (146) |  |
|  Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes | 635 | 626 | (9) |  |
|  Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes | 511 | 547 | 36 |  |
|  Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty | 215 | 253 | 38 |  |
|  Other Taxes | 800 | 670 | (130) |  |
|  | **126414** | **142097** | **15683** |  |
|  **Government of Canada** |  |  |  |  |
|  Canada Health Transfer | 17560 | 17524 | (36) |  |
|  Canada Social Transfer | 6191 | 6178 | (13) |  |
|  Equalization | – | – | – |  |
|  Infrastructure Programs | 1239 | 1069 | (170) |  |
|  Labour Market Programs | 1128 | 1128 | – |  |
|  Social Housing Agreement | 263 | 263 | – |  |
|  Other Federal Payments | 4139 | 4183 | 44 |  |
|  Direct Transfers to Broader Public Sector Organizations | 479 | 491 | 12 |  |
|  | **30999** | **30836** | **(163)** |  |
|  **Income from Government Business Enterprises** |  |  |  |  |
|  Liquor Control Board of Ontario | 2583 | 2441 | (142) |  |
|  Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd. | 1186 | 1460 | 274 |  |
|  Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation | 2330 | 2384 | 54 |  |
|  Ontario Cannabis Store | 180 | 225 | 45 |  |
|  | **6279** | **6510** | **231** |  |
| *continued...* | *continued...* | *continued...* | *continued...* |  |

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**Table 4 (continued)** 

**Revenue** 

**($ Millions)** 

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| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | **2022–23** |
| | ***2022<br>Budget*** | **Current<br>Outlook** | **In-Year<br>Change** |
|  **Other Non-Tax Revenue** | | | |
|  Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges | 9365 | 10262 | 897 |
|  Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees | 1034 | 1034 | – |
|  Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue | 1169 | 1169 | – |
|  Other Fees and Licences | 1211 | 1208 | (3) |
|  Sales and Rentals | 1939 | 1939 | – |
|  Reimbursements | 1039 | 1039 | – |
|  Royalties | 307 | 307 | – |
|  Power Supply Contract Recoveries | 42 | 46 | 4 |
|  Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contracts | – | – | – |
|  | **16106** | **17004** | **898** |
|  **Total Revenue** | **179798** | **196447** | **16649** |

---

*Notes:* Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2022, as well as other significant updates to the fiscal plan.

*Source:* Ontario Ministry of Finance.

------

**Table 5** 

**Total Expense<sup>1</sup>** 

**($ Millions)** 

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | **2022–23** |
| <br>**Ministry Expense** | ***2022<br>Budget*** | **Current<br>Outlook** | **In-Year<br>Change** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Base) | 331.3 | 331.3 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Demand-Driven Risk Management and Time-Limited Programs | 439.3 | 439.3 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 47.6 | 47.6 | – |
|  **Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Total)** | **818.1** | **818.1** | **–** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Attorney General (Base) | 1783.7 | 1822.8 | 39.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 52 | 52 | – |
|  **Attorney General (Total)** | **1835.7** | **1874.8** | **39.1** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Board of Internal Economy (Base) | 278.2 | 278.2 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Provision for Costs of General Election | 100 | 100 | – |
|  **Board of Internal Economy (Total)** | **378.2** | **378.2** | **–** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Children, Community and Social Services (Base) | 18326.5 | 18472.8 | 146.4 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 22 | 23 | 1 |
|  **Children, Community and Social Services (Total)** | **18348.5** | **18495.8** | **147.3** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Base) | 52.6 | 50.7 | (1.9) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 3.7 | 3.7 | – |
|  **Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Total)** | **56.3** | **54.4** | **(1.9)** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Colleges and Universities (Base) | 9439.4 | 10167.9 | 728.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Student Financial Assistance | 1333 | 1241.6 | (91.4) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 10.7 | 10.7 | – |
|  **Colleges and Universities (Total)** | **10783.1** | **11420.2** | **637.1** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Base) | 429.8 | 429.8 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Time-Limited Investments | 434.4 | 545.5 | 111.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 78 | 96 | 18 |
|  **Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total)** | **942.1** | **1071.2** | **129.1** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Education (Base) | 32439 | 32441.5 | 2.5 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Teachers' Pension Plan | 1630 | 1630 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 597.5 | 968.6 | 371.2 |
|  **Education (Total)** | **34666.5** | **35040.2** | **373.7** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Energy (Base) | 327.6 | 327.6 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Electricity Cost Relief Programs | 6273.7 | 6273.7 | – |
|  **Energy (Total)** | **6601.3** | **6601.3** | – |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Environment, Conservation and Parks (Base) | 711.9 | 716.1 | 4.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 24.7 | 24.7 | – |
|  **Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total)** | **736.6** | **740.8** | **4.3** |
|  **Executive Offices (Total)** | **47.0** | **48.3** | **1.3** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Finance (Base) | 938.5 | 978.1 | 39.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Investment Management Corporation of Ontario<sup>3</sup> | 221.9 | 221.9 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund | 501.9 | 501.9 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Power Supply Contract Costs | 42.3 | 42.3 | – |
|  **Finance (Total)** | **1704.6** | **1744.2** | **39.6** |
| *continued*... | *continued*... | *continued*... | *continued*... |

---

------

**Table 5 (continued)** 

**Total Expense<sup>1</sup>** 

**($ Millions)** 

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | **2022–23** |
| <br>**Ministry Expense** | ***2022<br>Budget*** | **Current<br>Outlook** | **In-Year<br>Change** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Francophone Affairs (Base) | 7.4 | 7.4 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Time-Limited Investments | 0.6 | 0.6 | – |
|  **Francophone Affairs (Total)** | **7.9** | **7.9** | **–** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Government and Consumer Services (Base) | 835.8 | 832.8 | (3.0) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Realty | 1184.5 | 1248.6 | 64.1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 89.2 | 89.2 | – |
|  **Government and Consumer Services (Total)** | **2109.6** | **2170.7** | **61.1** |
|  **Health (Total)** | **68414.4** | **68414.4** | **–** |
|  **COVID-19 Health Response<sup>4</sup>** | **4753.6** | **4922.3** | **168.7** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries (Base) | 871.2 | 906.8 | 35.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ontario Cultural Media Tax Credits | 816.9 | 819.2 | 2.3 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 200 | 200 | – |
|  **Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries (Total)** | **1888.2** | **1926.1** | **37.9** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Indigenous Affairs | 118.3 | 118.9 | 0.6 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; One-Time Investments including Settlements | – | 5000 | 5000 |
|  **Indigenous Affairs (Total)** | **118.3** | **5118.9** | **5000.6** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Infrastructure (Base) | 981.5 | 479 | (502.5) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs | 717.4 | 440.9 | (276.5) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Waterfront Toronto Revitalization (Port Lands Flood Protection) | 25 | 25 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Municipal Infrastructure Program Investments | 398.4 | 398.4 | – |
|  **Infrastructure (Total)** | **2122.3** | **1343.3** | **(779.0)** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Labour, Training and Skills Development (Base) | 301.7 | 296.4 | (5.3) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Training Tax Credits (Co-operative Education and Apprenticeship Training)<sup>5</sup>  | 92 | 92 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Demand-Driven Employment and Training Programs | 1126.6 | 1156.6 | 30 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 284.7 | 469 | 184.3 |
|  **Labour, Training and Skills Development (Total)** | **1804.9** | **2013.9** | **209.0** |
|  **Long-Term Care (Total)<sup>6</sup>** | **6750.9** | **6750.9** | **–** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base) | 562.4 | 562.4 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Time-Limited Investments | 414.5 | 414.5 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Social Housing Agreement – Payments to Service Managers | 210.3 | 210.3 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 127.5 | 391.3 | 263.8 |
|  **Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total)** | **1314.7** | **1578.5** | **263.8** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry (Base) | 1439.4 | 1440.3 | 1 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Emergency Forest Firefighting | 100 | 100 | – |
|  **Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry (Total)** | **1539.3** | **1540.3** | **1.0** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Seniors and Accessibility (Base) | 203.1 | 203.1 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Time-Limited Investments | 0.8 | 0.8 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 31.1 | 40.5 | 9.4 |
|  **Seniors and Accessibility (Total)** | **235.0** | **244.4** | **9.4** |
| *continued*... | *continued*... | *continued*... | *continued*... |

---

------

**Table 5 (continued)** 

**Total Expense<sup>1</sup>** 

**($ Millions)** 

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | **2022–23** |
| <br>**Ministry Expense** | ***2022<br>Budget*** | **Current<br>Outlook** | **In-Year<br>Change** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Solicitor General (Base) | 3516.4 | 3364.0 | (152.4) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | – | 1.8 | 1.8 |
|  **Solicitor General (Total)** | **3516.4** | **3365.8** | **(150.6)** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Transportation (Base) | 5888.2 | 5888.2 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs | 720.7 | 720.7 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding<sup>2</sup> | 585.0 | 585.0 | – |
|  **Transportation (Total)** | **7194.0** | **7194.0** | **–** |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Treasury Board Secretariat (Base) | 335.2 | 335.2 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Employee and Pensioner Benefits | 1590.1 | 1590.1 |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Operating Contingency Fund | 4325.8 | 1529.1 | (2796.7) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Capital Contingency Fund | 224.2 | 220.9 | (3.3) |
|  **Treasury Board Secretariat (Total)** | **6475.3** | **3675.3** | **(2800.0)** |
|  **Interest on Debt<sup>7</sup>**  | **13485.0** | **13442.0** | **(43.0)** |
|  **Total Expense** | **198647.7** | **201996.3** | **3348.5** |

---

<sup>1</sup> The ministry structures have been retained from the 2022 Budget. The new government structure, reflecting the announcement of the Executive Council on June 24, 2022, will be reflected in future publications.

<sup>2</sup> In the 2022 Budget, the government made COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding available in 2022–23. This funding continues to be presented separately in order to transparently capture the temporary nature of these investments.

<sup>3</sup> Based on the requirements of Public Sector Accounting Standards, the Province consolidated the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario into the Ministry of Finance.

<sup>4</sup> For presentation purposes in the 2022–23 Third Quarter Finances, time-limited COVID-19 related spending has been included separately instead of within the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Long-Term Care. This change in presentation does not impact ministry allocations, which reflect the ministry structure(s) presented in the 2022–23 Expenditure Estimates. 

<sup>5</sup> The Co-operative Education Tax Credit remains in effect. The Apprenticeship Training Tax Credit is eliminated for eligible apprenticeship programs that commenced on or after November 15, 2017.

<sup>6</sup> The Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care total includes expenses incurred by Ontario Health for funding for long-term care. These amounts will be consolidated in the total expense of the Ontario Ministry of Health, including $4.7 billion in 2022–23. 

<sup>7</sup> Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $401 million in 2022–23. 

*Notes:* Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2022, as well as other significant updates to the fiscal plan.

*Sources:* Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

------

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  **Table 6**<br>**Infrastructure Expenditures**<br>**($ Millions)** | **Table 6**<br>**Infrastructure Expenditures**<br>**($ Millions)** | **Table 6**<br>**Infrastructure Expenditures**<br>**($ Millions)** | **Table 6**<br>**Infrastructure Expenditures**<br>**($ Millions)** | **Table 6**<br>**Infrastructure Expenditures**<br>**($ Millions)** | **Table 6**<br>**Infrastructure Expenditures**<br>**($ Millions)** |
| **Sector** | **2022–23 Current Outlook** | **2022–23 Current Outlook** | **2022–23 Current Outlook** | ***2022 Budget*** | **In-Year Change** |
| **Sector** | **Investment in<br>Capital Assets<sup>1,2</sup>** | **Transfers<br>and Other<br>Infrastructure<br>Expenditures<sup>3</sup>** | **Total<br>Infrastructure<br>Expenditures** | **Total<br>Infrastructure<br>Expenditures** | **Total<br>Infrastructure<br>Expenditures** |
|  **Transportation** | | | | | |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Transit | 6767 | 1406 | 8173 | 8183 | (9) |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Provincial Highways | 2778 | 240 | 3018 | 3018 | – |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Other Transportation, Property and Planning | 142 | 77 | 219 | 219 | – |
|  **Health** |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Hospitals | 3022 | 3 | 3025 | 3025 | – |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Other Health | 53 | 162 | 215 | 215 | – |
|  **Education** | 2922 | 15 | 2938 | 2938 | – |
|  **Postsecondary Education** |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Colleges and Other | 837 | 49 | 886 | 470 | 416 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Universities | – | 135 | 135 | 135 | – |
|  **Social** | 20 | 299 | 319 | 319 | – |
|  **Justice** | 570 | 34 | 604 | 847 | (243) |
|  **Other Sectors<sup>4</sup>** | 1043 | 1485 | 2528 | 3279 | (751) |
| **Total Infrastructure Expenditures** | **18155** | **3904** | **22059** | **22647** | **(588)** |
|  Less: Other Partner Funding<sup>5</sup> | 3021 | – | 3021 | 2611 | 410 |
|  **Total<sup>6</sup>** | **15134** | **3904** | **19038** | **20035** | **(997)** |

---

<sup>1</sup> Includes $401 million in interest capitalized during construction. 

<sup>2</sup> Includes provincial investment in capital assets of $13.3 billion. 

<sup>3</sup> Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.

<sup>4</sup> Includes broadband infrastructure, government administration, natural resources and the culture and tourism industries.

<sup>5</sup> Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments, primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools**.** 

<sup>6</sup> Includes federal/municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.

*Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding. 

*Source:* Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat.

------

**Table 7** 

**Five-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics** 

**($ Millions)** 

---

| | | | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| | | | | **Actual** | **Current<br>Outlook** |
| | **2018–19** | **2019–20** | **2020–21** | **2021–22** | **2022–23** |
|  **Revenue** | **153700** | **156096** | **164893** | **185062** | **196447** |
|  **Expense** |  |  |  |  |  |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Programs | 148751 | 152273 | 169023 | 170453 | 188554 |
| &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Interest on Debt<sup>1</sup>  | 12384 | 12495 | 12274 | 12558 | 13442 |
|  **Total Expense** | **161135** | **164768** | **181297** | **183011** | **201996** |
|  Reserve | – | – | – | – | 1000 |
|  **Surplus/(Deficit)** | **(7435)** | **(8672)** | **(16404)** | **2051** | **(6549)** |
|  Net Debt | 338496 | 353332 | 373564 | 380415 | 401101 |
|  Accumulated Deficit | 216642 | 225764 | 239294 | 236857 | 247142 |
|  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices | 860104 | 893224 | 866981 | 956707 | 1046883 |
|  Primary Household Income | 567484 | 593065 | 592460 | 644263 | 705280 |
|  Population — July (000s)<sup>2</sup>  | 14309 | 14545 | 14726 | 14809 | 15109 |
|  Net Debt Per Capita (dollars) | 23657 | 24293 | 25368 | 25688 | 26546 |
|  Household Income Per Capita (dollars) | 39660 | 40775 | 40232 | 43504 | 46678 |
|  Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue | 220.2% | 226.4% | 226.5% | 205.6% | 204.2% |
|  Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
|  Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP | 39.4% | 39.6% | 43.1% | 39.8% | 38.3% |
|  Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP | 25.2% | 25.3% | 27.6% | 24.8% | 23.6% |

---

<sup>1</sup> Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $175 million in 2018–19, $245 million in 2019–20, $230 million in 2020–21, $321 million in 2021–22 and $401 million in 2022–23. 

<sup>2</sup> Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e., for 2018–19, the population on July 1, 2018 is shown).

*Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding.

*Sources:* Statistics Canada, Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

------

## Section D: Ontario's 2022–23 Borrowing Program

------

---

| | | | |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
|  **Table 8**<br>**Ontario's 2022–23 Borrowing Program**<br>**($ Billions)** | **Table 8**<br>**Ontario's 2022–23 Borrowing Program**<br>**($ Billions)** | **Table 8**<br>**Ontario's 2022–23 Borrowing Program**<br>**($ Billions)** | **Table 8**<br>**Ontario's 2022–23 Borrowing Program**<br>**($ Billions)** |
|  | **2022–23** | **2022–23** | **2022–23** |
| | ***2022<br>Budget*** | **Current<br>Outlook** | **Change from<br>*2022 Budget*** |
|  Deficit/(Surplus) | 19.9 | 6.5 | (13.3) |
|  Investment in Capital Assets | 13.4 | 13.3 | (0.2) |
|  Non-Cash Adjustments | (9.7) | (17.7) | (8.0) |
|  Loans to Infrastructure Ontario | (0.1) | (0.2) | (0.1) |
|  Other Net Loans/Investments | 0.7 | 0.0 | (0.7) |
|  Debt Maturities/Redemptions | 30.5 | 30.6 | 0.0 |
|  **Total Funding Requirement** | **54.7** | **32.5** | **(22.2)** |
|  Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing | (3.0) | – | 3.0 |
|  Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents | – | – | – |
|  Pre-Borrowing in 2021–22 for 2022–23 | (10.3) | (10.3) | – |
|  Pre-Borrowing for 2023–24 | – | 9.9 | 9.9 |
|  **Total Long-Term Public Borrowing** | **41.5** | **32.2** | **(9.3)** |
|  *Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding.<br> *Source:* Ontario Financing Authority. | *Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding.<br> *Source:* Ontario Financing Authority. | *Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding.<br> *Source:* Ontario Financing Authority. | *Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding.<br> *Source:* Ontario Financing Authority. |

---

Ontario's current funding requirements for 2022–23 are projected to decrease by $22.2 billion compared to the forecast in the *2022 Budget*, reflecting stronger financial results reported in the *Public Accounts of Ontario 2021–22* and a decrease in the projected deficit for 2022–23. The funding requirements are down $6.9 billion, compared to the forecast in the *2022 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

The province's long-term borrowing program for 2022–23 is forecast to remain unchanged from the forecast in the *2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*, reflecting additional pre-borrowing of $6.9 billion for the next fiscal year, for a total of $9.9 billion. The province's total long-term borrowing program is $9.3 billion lower than forecast in the *2022 Budget.* Short-term borrowing for the fiscal year is projected to remain unchanged since the release of the *2022 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*.

As of February 7, 2023, Ontario had completed $29.9 billion or 93 per cent of its $32.2 billion 2022–23 long-term borrowing program. Approximately $26.2 billion or 88 per cent was completed in Canadian dollars, with the remaining $3.7 billion or 12 per cent completed primarily in U.S. dollars.

Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario's borrowing program and are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather resistant infrastructure, as well as energy efficiency and conservation projects. Ontario remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, totalling $13.5 billion issued since 2014–15, with $13.0 billion outstanding. Subject to market conditions, Ontario plans to continue issuing multiple Green Bonds each fiscal year, including in 2022–23.

Ontario is updating its Green Bond Framework. The update will include better alignment of framework categories with the Green Bond Principles through standardized wording, as well as the expansion from green to sustainable to allow for a greater breadth of potential bond offerings in the future.

------

Interest rates have risen by more than projected in the *2022 Budget*, resulting in an increase of Ontario's cost of borrowing for 2022–23 to 4.0 per cent from 3.4 per cent projected in the *2022 Budget,* but down from the 4.2 per cent forecast in the *2022 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*. In spite of the higher interest rates, interest on debt is forecast to decline to $13.4 billion from the $13.5 billion forecast in the *2022 Budget* as a result of lower deficits and the borrowing program. Ontario will continue to monitor movements in long-term interest rates and provide regular updates on interest on debt costs in future fiscal updates.

**2022–23 Long-Term Borrowing** 

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
|  **Table 9**<br>**2022–23 Long-Term Borrowing**<br>**($ Billions)** | **Table 9**<br>**2022–23 Long-Term Borrowing**<br>**($ Billions)** |
|  Canadian Dollar Issues | 26.2 |
|  Foreign Currency Issues | 3.7 |
|  **Total** | **29.9** |

---

*Note:* Numbers may not add due to rounding.

*Source:* Ontario Financing Authority.

------

Ministry of Finance www.ontario.ca/finance

For general inquiries regarding the *2022–23 Third Quarter Finances*, please call or email:

---

| | |
|:---|:---|
| Toll-free English and French inquiries: | 1-800-337-7222 |
| Teletypewriter (TTY): | 1-800-263-7776 |
| Email: | **FinanceCommunications.fin@ontario.ca** |

---

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