Company: AHL
Filing Date: 2025-04-29
Form Type: F-1/A
Source: 0001628280-25-020463
Chunk: 205

Company: ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD
Filing Date: 2025-04-29
Form: F-1/A
Chunk 205
---
 or uncertainties which may create distortions in the underlying statistics or which might cause the cost of unsettled claims to increase or reduce when compared with the cost of previously settled claims, including:

• changes in our processes which might accelerate or slow down the development and/or recording of paid or incurred claims;

• changes in the legal environment (including challenges to tort reform);

• the effects of inflation, which rose rapidly over 2022 and 2023;

• changes in the mix of business;

• the impact of large losses; and

• changes in our cedants’ reserving methodologies.

These factors are incorporated in the management’s best estimate of reserves. We take all reasonable steps to ensure that we utilize all appropriate information and actuarial techniques in establishing our IBNR reserves. However, given the uncertainty in establishing claims liabilities, it is likely that the final outcome will prove to be different from the original provision established at the balance sheet date. Changes to our previous estimates of prior period loss reserves impact the reported calendar year underwriting results by worsening our reported results if the prior year reserves prove to be deficient or improving our reported results if the prior year reserves prove to be redundant. As at December 31, 2024, a 5% change in the gross reserve for IBNR losses would have equated to a change of approximately $262.4 million (2023 — $234.8 million) in loss reserves.

A 5% change in our net loss reserves equates to $197.5 million and represents 5.9% of shareholders’ equity as at December 31, 2024.

There are specific areas of our selected reserves which have additional uncertainty associated with them. Refer to “Risk Factors—Risks Related to Our Business—(Re)insurance Risks—Our financial condition and operating results may be adversely affected if actual claims exceed our loss reserves” for a discussion of the specific areas of our selected reserves which have additional uncertainty. In each case, management believes they have selected an appropriate best estimate based on current information and current analyses.

<div align='center'>140</div>

Loss Reserving Sensitivity Analysis

The most significant key assumptions identified in the reserving process are that (i) the historic loss development and trend experience is assumed to be indicative of future loss development and trends, (ii) the information developed from internal and independent external sources can be used to develop meaningful estimates of the initial expected ultimate loss ratios, and (iii) no significant losses or types of losses will emerge that are not