Company: LLOBF
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001654954-25-001688
Chunk: 53

Company: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form: 6-K
Chunk 53
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2028. The inclusion of the reporting year within the five-year period reflects the need to predict variables which remain unpublished at the reporting date and recognises that credit models utilise both level and annual changes. The use of calendar years maintains a comparability between the annual assumptions presented.

Five-year start to peak and trough

The peak or trough for any metric may occur intra year and therefore not be identifiable from the annual assumptions, so they are also disclosed. For GDP, house price growth and commercial real estate price growth, the peak, or trough, reflects the highest, or lowest cumulative quarterly position reached relative to the start of the five-year period, which as at 31 December 2024 is 1 January 2024. Given these metrics may exhibit increases followed by greater falls, the start to trough movements quoted may be smaller than the equivalent 'peak to trough' movement (and vice versa for start to peak). Unemployment, UK Bank Rate and CPI inflation reflect the highest, or lowest, quarterly level reached in the five-year period.

NOTES TO THE CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (continued)

4. Allowance for expected credit losses (continued)

| At 31 December 2024                 | 2024 
    % |  2025 
     % |  2026 
     % |  2027 
     % | 2028 
    % |            2024 
 to 2028 average 
               % | Start to 
     peak 
        % | Start to 
   trough 
        % |
| Upside                              |      |       |       |       |      |                 |          |          |
| Gross domestic product              |  0.8 |   1.9 |   2.2 |   1.5 |  1.4 |             1.6 |      8.9 |      0.7 |
| Unemployment rate                   |  4.3 |   3.5 |   2.8 |   2.7 |  2.8 |             3.2 |      4.4 |      2.7 |
| House price growth                  |  3.4 |   3.7 |   6.5 |   6.6 |  5.4 |             5.1 |     28.2 |      0.4 |
| Commercial real estate price growth |  0