Company: SMNR
Filing Date: 2025-08-08
Form Type: S-4/A
Source: 0001193125-25-177097
Chunk: 357

Company: Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Filing Date: 2025-08-08
Form: S-4/A
Chunk 357
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217 |     | $      | 1,305,910,424 |     | $      | 1,310,721,898 |     | $      | 1,315,433,133 |     | $      | 1,320,032,624 |

201

| (1) | Gross Sales are based on the following assumptions with respect to the applicable market, market share, growth rate and price per unit for SP-102 (each of which are based on Semnur management’s internal analysis of the results of the Research Report with respect to the SP-102 market). |

| (a) | The applicable assumed market for SP-102 is the U.S. ESI Market, covering both LR and Non-LR. In the first year after the commercial launch of SP-102, Semnur estimates the number of ESI administered LR injections to be approximately 12.7 million. Based on Semnur management’s internal analysis of the results of the Research Report (with respect to the SP-102 market), the U.S. ESI Market for SP-102 is expected to have an average annual market growth rate of 3.6% between 2023 and 2027. Semnur’s management estimates 0.9% growth in ESI administered LR injections in 2028 and 0.5% thereafter, with the estimate in 2028 being higher due to the initial significant promotional efforts for the launch of SP-102 in 2027 and 2028. Such estimate is based on the growth of the U.S. population which typically ranges from 0.5% to 1.0% annually. As corticosteroid injections are commonly used off-label for the management of various types of pain, especially those related to inflammation, Semnur anticipates the off-label use of SP-102 for non-LR indications due to the benefit of extended local effect. Semnur estimates the number of Non-LR injections to be approximately 16.8 million per year the first year after the commercial launch of SP-102, and the number of Non-LR injections is expected to represent 133% of the number of LR injections for each period, based on an average Non-LR ratio of 180% comparing the number of LR sciatica procedures to non-LR indications and an average Non-LR utilization ratio of 74% comparing physician utilization of SP-102 to Non-LR indications. In addition, based on Semnur’s