Company: MTB-PJ
Filing Date: 2025-10-27
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000036270-25-000024
Chunk: 213

Company: M&T BANK CORP
Filing Date: 2025-10-27
Form: 10-Q
Item: Part I, Item 8
Chunk 213
---
9 -.1 2.4 2.3 

- 61 -

With respect to economic forecasts, the Company assessed the likelihood of alternative economic scenarios during the two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period. Generally, an increase in unemployment rate or a decrease in any of the rate of change in GDP, commercial real estate prices or home prices could have an adverse impact on expected credit losses and may result in an increase to the allowance for loan losses. Forward-looking economic forecasts are subject to inherent imprecision and future outcomes may differ materially from forecasted events. In consideration of such uncertainty, the following alternative economic scenarios were considered to estimate the possible impact on modeled credit losses.

ALLOWANCE FOR LOAN LOSSES SENSITIVITIES

September 30, 2025Year 1Year 2CumulativePotential downside economic scenario:National unemployment rate 7.1 %8.1 %Real GDP growth/decline rate -2.5 1.3 -1.1 %Commercial real estate price index decline rate-15.5 -6.6 -21.1 Home price index growth/decline rate -9.0 2.4 -6.8 Potential upside economic scenario:National unemployment rate 3.8 3.9 Real GDP growth rate 3.5 2.0 5.5 Commercial real estate price index growth rate1.3 4.0 5.3 Home price index growth rate 4.4 4.1 8.7 

(Dollars in millions)Impact to Modeled Credit Losses Increase (Decrease)Potential downside economic scenario$233 Potential upside economic scenario(110)

These examples are only a few of the numerous possible economic scenarios that could be utilized in assessing the sensitivity of expected credit losses. The estimated impacts on credit losses in such scenarios pertain only to modeled credit losses and do not include consideration of other factors the Company may evaluate when determining its allowance for loan losses. As a result, it is possible that the Company may, at another point in time, reach different conclusions regarding credit loss estimates. The Company’s process for determining the allowance for loan losses undergoes quarterly and periodic evaluations by independent risk management personnel, which among many other considerations, evaluate the reasonableness of management’s methodology and significant assumptions. 

- 62 -

Management has assessed that the allowance for loan losses at September 30, 2025 appropriately reflected expected credit losses in the