Company: AGM-PH
Filing Date: 2025-11-03
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000845877-25-000252
Chunk: 283

Company: FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORP
Filing Date: 2025-11-03
Form: 10-Q
Item: Part I, Item 2
Chunk 283
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 increased domestic inventories and potentially weigh on prices. Conversely, new trade agreements could lead to a boost in demand if foreign trade barriers are reduced. The U.S. is rapidly evolving its trade posture and tariff levels, which increases the uncertainty of foreign demand for U.S. agricultural products. Similar to many other sectors, the agricultural industry will likely remain acutely focused on trade into 2026.

Beyond developments related to trade, changing environmental regulations and immigration laws could result in significant impacts on agricultural producers and the sector as a whole. These changes could lead to both favorable and unfavorable conditions, different labor costs and availability, and new regulatory frameworks. The agricultural sector may experience varying degrees of disruption and adaptation in response to these evolving policies, and these changes could increase the volatility of sector profitability in the near term.

Lower prices for several agricultural commodities could have multiple competing effects on loan performance and agricultural credit demand. Constraints on cash flow and additional market volatility could cause loan delinquencies to continue to rise above historical averages, most likely in commodities experiencing negative market conditions, like some grains and permanent crops. Simultaneously, cash flow constraints and heightened uncertainty can increase demand for debt capital to reorganize balance sheets and replace lost incomes. Farmer Mac believes that its portfolio and market strategy is sufficiently diversified by borrower, industry, and region to maintain robust portfolio performance through the current cycle to be positioned to support any expansion of the farm mortgage market that may arise in the coming quarters.

Land Values

Record-setting farm incomes in 2021 and 2022, combined with historically low interest rates in 2020 and 2021, drove a rapid rise in land values and a decrease in farm delinquencies and bankruptcies. Momentum for farmland values persisted throughout 2023 due to high levels of farm liquidity and a constrained supply of farmland for sale. Land values slowed in some markets in 2024 and 2025 due to higher interest rates and lower profitability for some agricultural subsectors. Land value survey data from the USDA shows a 4.3% increase in average farm real estate values from June 2024 to June 2025. Annual farm real estate value gains were highest in the Southern Plains (5.9%) and the Lake states (5.7%) and still strong but slowing in the Northern Plains (4.9%), the Southeast (4.7%) and the Corn Belt (4.0%). According to the survey data, California farm real estate average value increased 2.2% overall and 3.5%