Company: AHL
Filing Date: 2025-03-20
Form Type: F-1/A
Source: 0001628280-25-014149
Chunk: 52

Company: ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD
Filing Date: 2025-03-20
Form: F-1/A
Chunk 52
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 extent actual claims exceed our expectations, we will be required to recognize the less favorable experience immediately which could cause a material increase in our provisions for liabilities and a reduction in our profitability, including operating losses and reduction of capital.

We cannot estimate losses from widespread catastrophic events, such as hurricanes, earthquakes or pandemic events like COVID-19, using traditional actuarial methods. The magnitude and complexity of losses associated with certain of these events inherently increase the level of uncertainty and, therefore, there is a significant level of management judgment involved in arriving at loss reserve estimates. Similarly, our estimate of ultimate losses related to the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be subject to significant uncertainty, as such claims may emerge over time as the full impact of the pandemic and its effects on the global economy are realized. As a result, actual losses for these events may ultimately differ materially from current estimates.

While we believe that our historical experience is capable of providing us with meaningful actuarial indications, estimates and judgments for new (re)insurance lines of business are more difficult to make than those made for more mature lines of business because we have more limited historical information through December 31, 2024. A significant portion of our current loss reserves is in respect of incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves. This IBNR reserve is based almost entirely on estimates involving actuarial and statistical projections of our expectations of the ultimate loss and claims handling expenses. In addition to limited historical information for certain lines of business, we utilize actuarial models as well as historical insurance industry loss development patterns to establish loss reserves. Accordingly, actual claims and claim expenses paid may deviate, perhaps substantially, from our reserve estimates, which could materially adversely affect our financial results.

Only reserves applicable to losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred up to the reporting date may be set aside in our financial statements, with no allowance for future losses. Our estimates of reserves for losses and loss expenses also include assumptions about future payments for settlement of claims and claims-handling expenses, such as medical treatment, awards for pain and suffering and litigation costs. We write casualty business in certain jurisdictions and other territories where claims inflation has for many years run at higher rates than general inflation. To the extent economic or social inflation, such as through outsized court awards, particularly in the United States, causes these costs to increase above reserves established for these claims, we will be required to increase our loss reserves with a corresponding reduction in our net income in the period in which the deficiency is identified, which could materially adversely affect our financial results.