Company: BCS
Filing Date: 2025-10-22
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001654954-25-012054
Chunk: 9

Company: BARCLAYS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-10-22
Form: 6-K
Chunk 9
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 banks lower interest rates stimulating private consumption and investment growth. Demand for labour increases and unemployment rates stabilise and start falling again. As geopolitical tensions ease, low inflation supports consumer purchasing power and contributes further to healthy GDP growth. The strong economic outlook and lower interest rates provide a boost to house prices growth and support bullish financial markets.

The methodology for estimating scenario weights involves simulating a range of future paths for UK and US GDP using historical data with the five scenarios mapped against the distribution of these future paths. The median is centred around the Baseline with scenarios further from the Baseline attracting a lower weighting before the five weights are normalised to total 100%. The increase in the Upside scenario weights since 30 June 2025 is mainly driven by improvement in GDP growth in the Baseline scenario, bringing the Baseline scenario closer to the Upside scenarios. For further details see page 34.

T he Group has retained the £71m (net of SRT 1 credit protection) uncertainty adjustment introduced in Q125 across the US Consumer Bank and the Investment Bank businesses as heightened uncertainty persists, including tariffs and trade uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risk; the impacts of which are yet to be observed in customer behaviour.

The following tables show the key macroeconomic variables used in the five scenarios (5-year annual paths) and the weights applied to each scenario.

| 1 | Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) represents risk transfer 
 transactions used to enhance risk management             
 capabilities.                                            |

| Macroeconomic variables used in the calculation of ECL |      |       |      |      |      |
| As at 30.09.25                                         | 2025 |  2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
| Baseline                                               |    % |     % |    % |    % |    % |
| UK GDP1                                                |  1.6 |   1.2 |  1.4 |  1.5 |  1.5 |
| UK unemployment2                                       |  4.6 |   4.8 |  4.7 |  4.7 |  4.6 |
| UK HPI3                                                |  2.2 |   3.5 |  1.9 |  3.4 |  3.8 |
| UK bank rate6                                          |  4.2 |   3.6 |  3.5 |  3.6