Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-02-27
Form Type: F-4/A
Source: 0001193125-25-037317
Chunk: 604

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-02-27
Form: F-4/A
Chunk 604
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 in energy prices, thanks to the improved global geopolitical environment and the absence of any further shocks. |

| • |     | Global economic growth is vigorous and synchronised, on the strength of an improved business climate and reduced                                                                                      
 uncertainty related to the geopolitical environment and the energy crisis. In addition, productivity gains stemming from an increasingly digitised and sustainable economy follow in the medium term. |

| • |     | Inflation rates slide back rapidly and remain close to the levels targeted in the monetary policy of the respective 
 central banks.                                                                                                      |

| • |     | The central banks are less hawkish and set interest rates at levels in line with monetary neutrality. |

| • |     | Global financing conditions remain lax, with no significant episodes of risk aversion. |

| • |     | The macroeconomic and financial environment allows risk premiums on both peripheral debt and corporate bonds to remain 
 contained.                                                                                                             |

| • |     | In Spain, the economy maintains a significant growth dynamic thanks to the resolution of the Ukraine conflict,              
 prevalence of lax funding conditions and the use of the NGEU funds which are received without problem and used efficiently. |

Alternative scenario 2: Synchronised global recession

| • |     | The global economy is faced with new shocks which bring on a recession in the first half of 2023. Specifically, in                                                                                             
 Europe, all commercial relations with Russia are severed. In addition, global government policies are taken in an uncoordinated fashion and are ineffective at limiting the impacts of the Russian gas cut-off 
 and other disruptions stemming from the worsened relations with Russia. All this ends up causing a severe economic recession.                                                                                  |

| • |     | Inflation remains high, initially due to the high starting point reached in 2022 and the additional energy price shock, 
 but eventually falls to the levels targeted by monetary policy due to weak demand.                                      |

| • |     | The central banks halt the process to normalise monetary policy in view of the weak demand. The ECB and the Fed                 
 implement some interest rate cuts, but these are limited due to the inflation rate which, initially, remains persistently high. |

| • |     | Global funding conditions are tightened against a backdrop of increased uncertainty and a global recession. The yields                      
 on government debt partially reverse the upward trend of recent months, but they remain at high levels compared with those of recent years. |

| • |     | Peripheral risk premiums face some upside pressure, alongside an expansionary fiscal policy and worsening public