Company: BCS
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0000312069-25-000114
Chunk: 440

Company: BARCLAYS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form: 20-F
Chunk 440
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 model to calculate ECL. An external consensus forecast is assembled from key sources, including HM Treasury (short and medium term forecasts) and Bloomberg (based on median of economic forecasts) which forms the Baseline scenario. In addition, two adverse scenarios (Downside 1 and Downside 2) and two favourable scenarios (Upside 1 and Upside 2) are derived, with associated probability weightings. The adverse scenarios are calibrated to a broadly similar severity to the Group's internal stress tests and stress scenarios provided by regulators whilst also considering IFRS 9 specific sensitivities and non-linearity. The favourable scenarios are designed to reflect plausible upside risks to the Baseline scenario which are broadly consistent with the economic narrative approved by the Senior Scenario Review Committee. All scenarios are regenerated at a minimum semi-annually. The scenarios include key economic variables, (including GDP, unemployment, House Price Index (HPI) and base rates in both the UK and US markets), and expanded variables using statistical models based on historical correlations. The upside and downside shocks are designed to evolve over a five -year stress horizon, with all five scenarios converging to a steady state after approximately seven years . The same scenarios used in the estimation of expected credit losses are also used to inform the Group's internal planning. Scenarios used to calculate the Group’s ECL charge were refreshed in Q424 with the Baseline scenario reflecting the latest consensus macroeconomic forecasts available at the time of the scenario refresh. In the Baseline scenario, following an encouraging first half of 2024, UK economic growth slowed in H224. However, it is further stimulated as restrictive monetary policy continues to loosen. UK and US GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 1.4% and 2.0% respectively. Labour markets in major economies remain broadly resilient with unemployment rates relatively close to historic lows and are only expected to increase moderately.The UK unemployment rate peaks at 4.5% in 2026 before returning to 4.4% for the reminder of the 5-year projection period. US unemployment peaks at 4.3%, falling to 4.2% from 2026. The Bank of England cuts rates three times by 25bp in 2025. Similarly, the Fed finishes 2025 with rates at 4.0%. As lower rates feed into new mortgages, UK house prices stabilise and resume the upward trend from 2025. US house prices continue to grow at a decent pace. The Downside