Company: RTNTF
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0001628280-25-006642
Chunk: 132

Company: RIO TINTO LTD
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form: 20-F
Chunk 132
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 surfacetemperature changesare likely to be2.6°C-4.8°C by 2100. |

Multiple future time horizons are modelled, including 2030 (medium term), 2040 and 2050 (long term). Eight climate hazards are modelled in this analysis, including flooding (riverine and surface water), coastal inundation, including sea level rise, extreme heat, cyclonic wind, extreme wind, forest fire and freeze-thaw. 3) Annualised damage (AD) : The output of the modelling is calculated for each asset under various climate scenarios, time horizons and hazards. AD, expressed as a percentage, represents the expected average annual damage to an asset attributable to climate-related hazards relative to a fixed value (eg $1 million). As such, an AD of 0.5% would mean that for every $1 million of exposure, $5,000 could be damaged, on average, in any given year. Asset-specific outputs have been aggregated to the site, region and Group level. Risk categorisation is based on the AD values, with thresholds set at <0.2% for low AD risk, 0.2-1% for medium AD risk, and >1% for high AD risk. Estimates consider a stationary “do nothing” approach for our operating assets and do not consider present or future controls, or adaptation or resilience projects that will likely materially impact our AD cost. Annualised damage risk scores At the Group level, present day AD losses fall within the initial range of the medium AD risk category (0.2-1%). Considering projected future emission scenarios by 2050, we expect increases in AD. This places the Group’s AD in the intermediate range of the medium AD risk category, potentially exceeding a two-fold rise from present values. Currently, across 9 core climate geographies where we operate, the risk of AD is low in 3 regions, medium in 5 and high in 2. Notably, sites in Asia, the Middle East and Guinea are the primary contributors to the highest risk classification. In both the intermediate and high emissions scenarios, by 2050, eastern Australia and New Zealand are also expected to be classified as high risk with up to a four-fold increase in AD. This is principally due to the potential effects of coastal inundation, surface water flooding and cyclonic winds. Other notable increases in risk are in Europe and the Middle East (an approximate 60% increase). The risk trend in Asia is steady through time