Company: HBCYF
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0001089113-25-000040
Chunk: 285

Company: HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form: 20-F
Chunk 285
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: Real GDP shown as year-on-year percentage change.

| US |

4Q23 Central 5Y Average: 1.8% 4Q24 Central 5Y Average: 1.8%

Note: Real GDP shown as year-on-year percentage change. The consensus Upside scenario

Compared with the Central scenario, the consensus Upside scenario

features stronger economic activity in the near term, before

converging to long-run trend expectations. It also incorporates a faster

fall in the rate of inflation than in the Central scenario.

The scenario is consistent with a number of key upside risk themes.

These include only limited increases in tariffs and a faster fall in the

rate of inflation that allows central banks to reduce interest rates

more quickly. The Upside scenario would also be consistent with a

de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, where the Russia-Ukraine war

moves quickly towards a conclusion, tensions in the Middle East

subside and US-China relations become more cordial.

The following tables describe key macroeconomic variables in the

consensus Upside scenario.

| Consensus Upside scenario 2025–2029 (as at 4Q24) |      |       |      |       |           |       |                |       |        |       |      |       |        |       |
|                                                  |   UK |       |   US |       | Hong Kong |       | Mainland China |       | France |       |  UAE |       | Mexico |       |
| GDP level (%, start-to-peak)1                    | 11.3 | -4Q29 | 13.6 | -4Q29 |      21.4 | -4Q29 |           27.5 | -4Q29 |    8.9 | -4Q29 | 28.9 | -4Q29 |   13.6 | -4Q29 |
| Unemployment rate (%, min)2                      |  3.5 | -3Q26 |  3.6 | -1Q26 |       2.9 | -4Q29 |            4.9 | -4Q26 |    6.4 | -4Q26 |  2.2 | -4Q26 |    3.0 | -1Q25 |
| House price index (%, start-to-peak)1            | 24.2 | -4Q29 | 23.6 | -4