Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-09-09
Form Type: 424B3
Source: 0001193125-25-198517
Chunk: 402

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-09-09
Form: 424B3
Chunk 402
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.14 | % |     |                 | 7.63 | % |     |     | 86.79 | % |

The PD of secured loans was calibrated in 2024, resulting in customers with a good credit record being reclassified from stage 2 to stage 1, which in turn led to an increase in the average PD for those in stage 2. Inclusion of forward-looking information in expected loss models The Group has considered three macroeconomic scenarios: one baseline scenario, the most likely of all (65%); alternative scenario 1, which is more optimistic and envisages productivity gains and non-existentinflation (15%); and alternative scenario 2, which is more adverse and envisages financial instability and recession (20%). In 2023, the Group considered three macroeconomic scenarios with weights of 60%, 10% and 30%, respectively, and the same macroeconomic variables as in 2024. In the case of TSB, the same probabilities as in 2023 are maintained, i.e. the probabilities of the baseline scenario and of the best-case scenario are reduced to 60% and 10%, respectively, assigning a 10% probability to a more adverse scenario characterised by interest rate hikes. To carry out the forecasts of these scenarios, five-year time A-169

horizons are used. The main variables considered are changes in GDP, the unemployment rate and house prices. Baseline scenario

| • |     | Uncertainty and Trump’s protectionist policies impact global economic growth. Trump’s arrival at the White                                                                                                                                     
 House compounds other structural factors that act as a drag, including the following: (i) the turbulent geopolitical environment and its consequences on international trade and value chains, (ii) structural weaknesses of economies such as 
 China, Germany and Italy, and (iii) the fiscal situation of some large, developed economies, especially the United States, France and Italy. The labour market shows a more even balance between supply and demand for jobs.                   |

| • |     | Growth in the Eurozone is negatively affected by the adoption of tariffs and the repatriation of earnings of US                                                                                                               
 companies as a result of tax cuts and greater geopolitical uncertainty. Spain is one of the countries least directly affected by Trump’s tariffs, although some sectors can be affected by the impact on international trade. |

| • |     | The volatile and erratic nature of inflation is exacerbated by new supply shocks (new tariffs, more volatile energy            
 prices, reconfiguration of production chains