Company: FMCCN
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0001026214-25-000040
Chunk: 250

Company: FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORP
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 15
Chunk 250
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 losses for single-family loans on a pooled basis using a discounted cash flow model that evaluates a variety of factors to estimate the cash flows we expect to collect. If we determine that foreclosure on the underlying collateral is probable, we measure the allowance for credit losses for single-family loans based upon the fair value of the collateral, less costs to sell, adjusted for estimated proceeds from credit enhancements that are not freestanding contracts. 

FREDDIE MAC  |  2024 Form 10-K166

Financial Statements                                  Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements | Note 6

The discounted cash flow model we use to estimate the single-family loan allowance for credit losses forecasts cash flows over the loan’s remaining contractual term, adjusted for expectations of prepayments. As a result, we do not revert to historical loss information for single-family loans. Cash flow estimates are discounted at the loan’s prepayment-adjusted effective interest rate, which is adjusted for projections in the underlying benchmark interest rate for adjustable-rate loans. We project cash flows we expect to collect using our historical experience (which includes the effects of natural disasters), such as historical default rates and severity of loss, based on loan characteristics, such as current LTV ratios, delinquency status, geography, and borrowers' credit scores. These cash flow estimates incorporate probability of default and severity of losses and are adjusted for current and forecasted economic conditions, such as current and forecasted interest rates and house price growth rates, and estimated recoveries from loss mitigation activities, credit enhancements that are not freestanding contracts, and disposition of collateral, less estimated disposition costs.Our estimate of expected credit losses is sensitive to changes in forecasted house price growth rates, which affect both the probability of default and severity of expected credit losses, and changes in forecasted interest rates, as declining (increasing) interest rates typically result in higher (lower) expected prepayments and a shorter (longer) estimated loan life, and therefore lower (higher) expected credit losses. Our forecast of house price growth rates leverages an internally based model and uses a nationwide house price growth forecast for the next three years. A Monte Carlo simulation generates many possible house price scenarios for up to 40 years for each MSA. These scenarios are used to estimate loan-level expected future cash flows and credit losses based on each loan’s individual characteristics. Our forecast of interest rates incorporates various interest rate scenarios over the remaining contractual life of the loan based on current interest rates and implied market volatilities. These projections require significant management judgment