Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-09-09
Form Type: 424B3
Source: 0001193125-25-198517
Chunk: 404

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-09-09
Form: 424B3
Chunk 404
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 of financial stress, although                                                                                                
 the banking sector is resilient. Against this backdrop, there could be occasional spikes of instability related to some current financial vulnerabilities, which relate to the capital market infrastructure and the 
 non-bank financial sector. In any event and in general, the baseline scenario considers that these events are localised and that the authorities manage to control them; therefore, they do not end up having        
 severe and long-lasting economic repercussions.                                                                                                                                                                      |

| • |     | The Spanish economy continues to grow above its potential in the first years of the scenario’s horizon and is 
 more dynamic than the rest of the Eurozone. After a period in which the external                              |

A-170

| sector has played a prominent role, domestic demand takes on a bigger role. Activity is underpinned by the increase in population (a consequence of migration), the favourable evolution of the 
 labour market, the absence of imbalances in private agents’ balance sheets and in the external sector, lower interest rates and a greater rollout of NGEU funds.                                |

| • |     | Private sector lending in Spain gains traction and increases across all portfolios. Its momentum is similar to that of                                                                                                                 
 nominal GDP over the entire time horizon. Credit is supported by factors such as (i) a lower interest rate environment, (ii) higher corporate financing needs stemming from higher investment, (iii) a healthy financial position, and 
 (iv) good labour market dynamics.                                                                                                                                                                                                      |

| • |     | In relation to the financial markets, yields on long-term government bonds are still maintained at relatively high                                                                                                                                      
 levels by higher target official interest rates, a higher term premium due to volatility in growth and inflation figures, high sovereign financing needs, progress made in Quantitative Tightening (QT) and tighter monetary policy in Japan, which may 
 alter international financial flows.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    |

| • |     | Sovereign debt risk premiums in the European periphery remain at contained levels and in line with their respective 
 ratings. Sovereign ratings in Spain and Italy remain unchanged.                                                     |

| • |     | The US dollar, in its currency pair against the euro, shows greater resilience and reaches parity with the EU currency                                          
 due to the widening of the pro-US rate differential, the improved performance of the US economy and the uncertainty caused by political and geopolitical risks. |

Alternative scenario 1: productivity gains and non-existentinflation

| • |     | The scenario focuses on productivity gains stemming from an improved geopolitical environment and global supply