Company: CRESW
Filing Date: 2025-10-24
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0001654954-25-012195
Chunk: 337

Company: CRESUD INC
Filing Date: 2025-10-24
Form: 20-F
Item: Item 5
Chunk 337
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 Information

International Macroeconomic Outlook

As reported in the IMF’s WEO, worldwide GDP is expected to grow 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% 2026, according to the October 2025 WEO projections. The persistence of services inflation is slowing the pace disinflation making monetary policy normalization more challenging. Upside risks have risen, with trade tensions and policy uncertainty raising the likelihood of interest rates staying higher for longer. Still, inflation in many emerging markets and developing economies is already close to pre-pandemic levels.

Global inflation is expected to decrease from 5.9% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and to 3.7% in 2026, according to IMF’s WEO. The momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path. In advanced economies, the pace of disinflation is expected to moderate in 2025 and 2026, as services inflation remains persistent and commodity prices elevated. However, the gradual cooling of labor markets and the expected decline in energy prices should help bring inflation closer to target over the medium term. Inflation is expected to remain higher, and to decline more slowly, in emerging markets and developing economies than in advanced economies.

The persistence of inflation in the United States has delayed monetary easing, while renewed tariff tensions add to price pressures. At the same time, many central banks in emerging markets remain cautious about lowering rates, concerned that wider interest rate differentials could trigger currency depreciation against the U.S. dollar.

The escalation of trade tensions could further raise near-term inflation by increasing the cost of imported goods along the supply chain.

Renewed trade tariffs and the expansion of industrial policies worldwide risk generating adverse cross-border spillovers and retaliation. Conversely, stronger multilateral cooperation and faster macrostructural reforms could boost supply capacity, productivity, and global growth, with positive spillovers across economies. 

Argentine macroeconomic context

The accumulated CPI, as of June 30, 2025, inflation was recorded at 1.6%, bringing the cumulative inflation between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, reached 39.4%.

Shopping malls sales reached a total of ARS 592,710 million in June 2025, which represents a 27.8% increase as compared to June 2024. Accumulated sales for the first six months represent a 205.8% in current terms and 1.7% decrease in real