Company: HBCYF
Filing Date: 2025-07-30
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001089113-25-000052
Chunk: 64

Company: HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-07-30
Form: 6-K
Chunk 64
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 a deep global recession and

reflects management’s view of the tail of the economic distribution.

The narrative incorporates the crystallisation of a number of risks

simultaneously, including significant increases in tariffs and a further

escalation of geopolitical crises globally. The scenario is consistent

with the tariff rate, measured as an effective trade-weighted average,

rising to 31.6% in 2025, and remaining at that level in 2026. In this

scenario, confidence and asset prices fall sharply. The subsequent

drop in demand leads to a steep fall in commodity prices, and a rapid

increase in unemployment.

The following table describes key macroeconomic variables in the Downside 2 scenario.

| Downside 2 scenario (3Q25–2Q30)         |       |       |       |       |           |       |                |       |        |       |       |       |        |       |
|                                         |    UK |       |    US |       | Hong Kong |       | Mainland China |       | France |       |   UAE |       | Mexico |       |
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough)1         |  -5.5 | -4Q26 |  -4.2 | -3Q26 |     -10.8 | -1Q27 |           -6.3 | -3Q26 |   -6.3 | -4Q26 |  -5.2 | -4Q26 |   -9.3 | -4Q26 |
| Unemployment rate (%, max)2             |   8.7 | -4Q26 |   8.7 | -4Q26 |       6.7 | -2Q26 |            6.9 | -2Q27 |   10.8 | -2Q27 |   4.0 | -1Q26 |    5.8 | -4Q26 |
| House price index (%, start-to-trough)1 | -26.8 | -2Q27 | -14.3 | -2Q26 |     -22.1 | -2Q29 |          -27.7 | -3Q27 |   -6.8 | -4Q26 | -24.4 | -3Q27 |    0.7 | -3Q25 |
| Inflation rate (YoY % change)3          |  -1.9 | -2Q