Company: IMO
Filing Date: 2025-02-19
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000049938-25-000015
Chunk: 68

Company: IMPERIAL OIL LTD
Filing Date: 2025-02-19
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 16
Chunk 68
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 2050, while the share of coal falls to about half that of natural gas. Nuclear power is projected to grow, as many nations are likely to expand nuclear capacity to address rising electricity needs as well as energy security and environmental issues. Total renewable energy is expected to exceed 20 percent of global energy by 2050, with other renewables (e.g., biomass, hydropower, geothermal) contributing a combined share of more than 10 percent. Total energy supplied from wind and solar is expected to increase rapidly, growing over 400 percent from 2023 to 2050, when they are projected to be nearly 12 percent of the world energy mix.

Decarbonization of industrial activities will require a suite of nascent or future lower-carbon technologies and stable supporting policies. Lower-emission fuels, hydrogen-based fuels, and carbon capture and storage are 

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three key lower-carbon solutions needed to support a lower-emission future, in addition to wind and solar. Along with electrification, lower-emission fuels are expected to play an important role in decarbonization of the transportation sector, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize areas, such as aviation. Low-carbon hydrogen will be a key enabler replacing traditional furnace fuel to decarbonize the industrial sector. Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels like ammonia are also expected to make inroads into commercial transportation as technology improves to lower its cost and policy develops to support the needed infrastructure development. Carbon capture and storage on its own, or in combination with hydrogen production, is among the few proven technologies that could enable CO2 emission reductions from high-emitting and hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as power generation and heavy industries, including manufacturing, refining, and petrochemicals.

The Outlook projects that oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day to 2050. And even under the average of IPCC Likely Below 2°C scenarios, oil demand still comes to 66 million barrels per day in 2050 – about two thirds of current consumption. 

The Outlook shows oil production declines at a rate of about 15 percent per year. At that rate, in the absence of continued investment, by 2030 oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million barrels, more than 70 million barrels per day short of what is needed to meet demand. Limiting investment to only existing fields would slow the decline to about 4 percent, however, this would still be well below the oil demand in the IEA APS