Company: BOKF
Filing Date: 2025-02-19
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000875357-25-000013
Chunk: 122

Company: BOK FINANCIAL CORP
Filing Date: 2025-02-19
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 1
Chunk 122
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 participants. Under CFTC and SEC rules, entities transacting in less than $8 billion in notional value of swaps over any 12-month period are exempt from the definition of and registration as a "swap dealer." The Company currently estimates that the nature and volume of its swaps activity will not require it to register as a swap dealer.

9

Governmental Policies and Economic Factors

The operations of BOK Financial and its subsidiaries are affected by legislative changes and by the policies of various regulatory authorities and, in particular, the policies of the Federal Reserve Board. The Federal Reserve Board has statutory objectives to maximize employment and maintain price stability. Among the instruments of monetary policy used by the Federal Reserve Board to implement these objectives are: open-market operations in U.S. government securities, changes in the discount rate and federal funds rate on bank borrowings, and changes in reserve requirements on bank deposits. The effect of future changes in such policies on the business and earnings of BOK Financial and its subsidiaries is uncertain.

After experiencing continued economic volatility in 2023, the U.S. economy has shown signs of stabilizing in 2024. Due to greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the Federal Reserve's target, the Federal Funds rate was reduced by 100 basis points over the last four months of 2024. The housing market showed some signs of recovery, with slight increases in sales and inventory. However, the market remained challenged by high mortgage rates and limited supply. Consumer spending also continues to remain steady despite the Federal Reserve's effort to decrease spending with higher rates for the majority of the year. Despite the volatility caused by the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, oil prices have been more stable this year compared to the fluctuations experienced in 2023. Unemployment increased slightly to 4.0% for December 2024.

Our base case economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 assumed geopolitical conflicts remain isolated. Inflation continues to improve from previous peaks and reaches 2.4% by the end of 2025. There are two additional federal funds rate cuts over the forecasted horizon, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.0% at the end of 2025. Job openings continue to normalize, and overall hiring levels decline, causing the national unemployment rate to modestly increase over the next four quarters. Inflation pressures ease and help stabilize real household income, while a restrictive credit environment slows economic activity resulting in below-trend GDP growth. See