Company: FITBI
Filing Date: 2025-11-04
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000035527-25-000212
Chunk: 230

Company: FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
Filing Date: 2025-11-04
Form: 10-Q
Item: Item 1
Chunk 230
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1.8% in 2025 and reach their peak level of 2.4% in late 2026. Lastly, the Baseline scenario assumed additional cuts to the target federal funds rate, with an average federal funds rate of 4.2% in 2025 that decreases to an average of 3.4% and 3.0% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The Upside scenario assumed that, on an average annual basis, the change in real GDP is 2.0% in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The Upside scenario also assumed an average unemployment rate of 4.1% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. In this scenario, 10-year Treasury yields are fairly stable, reaching a peak of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2026, while credit spreads are consistent with the Baseline scenario, peaking at 2.3% in the first quarter of 2027. In the Upside scenario, the forecast for federal funds rate cuts was generally consistent with the Baseline scenario. 

The Downside scenario included significant worsening of economic conditions, causing the U.S. economy to fall into a recession in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Downside scenario assumed that real GDP declines from the third quarter of 2025 through the second quarter of 2026, with a cumulative decline of 2.6%, recovering to an average annualized GDP growth rate of 1.0% for the full year of 2027. The Downside scenario assumed an average unemployment rate of 4.7% in 2025, increasing to an average of 8.0% in 2026 and decreasing to an average of 7.8% in 2027. In this scenario, the 10-year Treasury yield increases to 4.7% in the first quarter of 2026, then drops to 3.4% by the end of 2026. Credit spreads also expand in this scenario, reaching a peak of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2026. In the Downside scenario, the forecast for the federal funds rate included steeper rate cuts than the Baseline scenario, with average target rates of 4.3% in 2025, followed by 3.4%