Company: HBCYF
Filing Date: 2025-07-30
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001089113-25-000052
Chunk: 60

Company: HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-07-30
Form: 6-K
Chunk 60
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Q24 Central 5Y Average: 1.5% 2Q25 Central 5Y Average: 1.4%

Note: Real GDP shown as year-on-year percentage change.

| Mainland China |

4Q24 Central 5Y Average: 3.9% 2Q25 Central 5Y Average: 3.9%

Note: Real GDP shown as year-on-year percentage change.

| US |

4Q24 Central 5Y Average: 1.8% 2Q25 Central 5Y Average: 1.8% Note: Real GDP shown as year-on-year percentage change. The consensus Upside scenario

Compared to the Central scenario, the consensus Upside scenario

features stronger economic activity in the near term, before

converging to long-run trend expectations. It also incorporates lower

unemployment and higher asset prices than incorporated in the

Central scenario.

The scenario is consistent with a number of key upside risk themes.

These include a rollback of tariff measures, deregulation, a de-

escalation in geopolitical tensions as the Russia-Ukraine war moves

quickly towards a conclusion and the conflict in the Middle East

subsides, and an improvement in the US-China relationship.

The following table describes key macroeconomic variables in the consensus Upside scenario.

| Consensus Upside scenario (3Q25–2Q30) |      |       |      |       |          |       |               |       |        |       |      |       |        |       |
|                                       |   UK |       |   US |       | HongKong |       | MainlandChina |       | France |       |  UAE |       | Mexico |       |
| GDP level (%, start-to-peak)1         | 11.0 | -2Q30 | 14.9 | -2Q30 |     19.1 | -2Q30 |          28.5 | -2Q30 |    8.4 | -2Q30 | 28.9 | -2Q30 |   16.4 | -2Q30 |
| Unemployment rate (%, min)2           |  3.0 | -1Q27 |  3.6 | -2Q27 |      2.7 | -2Q27 |           4.6 | -2Q27 |    6.6 | -2Q27 |  2.0 | -2Q