Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-08-12
Form Type: DRS
Source: 0000950123-25-007520
Chunk: 573

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-08-12
Form: DRS
Chunk 573
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 different scenarios to identify the                                                                                                                                          
 effect of the non-linearity of losses. To this end, the provisions required are estimated in the different scenarios for which a probability of occurrence has been defined. Specifically, the Bank has                                                  
 considered three macroeconomic scenarios: one baseline scenario, the most likely of all (60%); alternative scenario 1, which is more optimistic and envisages greater potential growth and non-existent                                                  
 inflation (10%); and alternative scenario 2, which is more adverse and envisages a halt in the disinflation process, financial instability and recession (30%). In the case of TSB, the probability of the adverse scenario is reduced to 20%, assigning 
 a 10% probability to a more adverse scenario characterised by interest rate hikes. To carry out the forecasts of these scenarios, 5-year time horizons are used. The main variables considered are changes in                                            
 GDP, the unemployment rate and house prices. In 2022, the Group considered three macroeconomic scenarios with weights of 61%, 9% and 30%, respectively, and the same macroeconomic variables as in 2023.                                                 |

Baseline scenario

| • |     | Global economic growth is fragile and constrained by the materialisation of impacts stemming from monetary policy                                                                                                                                  
 tightening, which affect activity, financing conditions and lending. In terms of regions, there are still structural adjustments in China, while in the Eurozone, Germany’s weaker performance contrasts with the periphery countries that benefit 
 from the Next Generation (NGEU) funds. Labour markets show relative stability, with a more even balance between supply and demand for jobs.                                                                                                        |

| • |     | Inflation gradually eases towards monetary policy targets. Movements in inflation are especially determined by largely                                                                                                           
 domestic factors, such as the job market, the real estate market and the fiscal policy of each country. However, unstable supply conditions could generate new disruptions in production chains and new specific cost pressures. |

| • |     | The geopolitical environment is uncertain, characterised by greater confrontations between blocs and a lack of                                                                                                                    
 cooperation in various areas. Countries tend to prioritise trade relations with their neighbours or with countries that are similar to them, and tend to respond to events that generate uncertainty with protectionist policies. |

A-352

As confidentially submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 11, 2025. This Amendment No. 4 has not been publicly filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and all information herein remains strictly