Company: HBCYF
Filing Date: 2025-04-29
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001089113-25-000046
Chunk: 43

Company: HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-04-29
Form: 6-K
Chunk 43
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, including housing, would rise more quickly than in the Central scenario. – The consensus Downside scenario: This scenario features weaker economic activity compared with the Central scenario, driven by higher tariffs than assumed under the Central scenario. It causes a supply shock that drives inflation and interest rates above the Central scenario forecast. In this scenario, GDP growth slows, unemployment rises, financial conditions tighten and equity markets and house prices fall. – The Downside 2 scenario: This scenario reflects management’s view of the tail end of the economic distribution. It incorporates the simultaneous crystallisation of a number of risks that leads to a deep global recession. The narrative features an escalation in tariff actions globally and further deterioration of geopolitical relations that lead to significant supply chain degradation. Inflation and interest rates are assumed to rise initially. Unemployment also increases rapidly, asset prices fall and defaults rise significantly. As recession takes hold, commodity prices fall back and inflation falls. Both the consensus Downside and the Downside 2 scenarios are global in scope, and while they differ in severity, they assume that the key risks to HSBC, listed above, crystallise simultaneously. The following tables describe key macroeconomic variables in the consensus Central scenario, consensus Upside scenario, consensus Downside scenario and Downside 2 scenario.

| Consensus Central scenario 2Q25–1Q30 (as at 1Q25) |     |     |           |               |        |     |        |
|                                                   |  UK |  US | Hong Kong | MainlandChina | France | UAE | Mexico |
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %)               |     |     |           |               |        |     |        |
| 2025                                              | 1.1 | 1.8 |       1.5 |           4.5 |    0.7 | 4.7 |    0.2 |
| 2026                                              | 1.3 | 2.0 |       1.6 |           4.1 |    1.2 | 4.3 |    1.6 |
| 2027                                              | 1.6 | 2.4 |       1.7 |           3.6 |    1.3 | 3.8 |    2.0 |
| 2028                                              | 1.6 | 1.9 |       2.0 |           3.6 |    1.3 | 3