Company: INGVF
Filing Date: 2025-07-31
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001628280-25-036812
Chunk: 29

Company: ING GROEP NV
Filing Date: 2025-07-31
Form: 6-K
Chunk 29
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percent in 2026 and 2027 respectively as momentum remains strong despite domestic political events and global trade uncertainty. The Russian economy is expected to slow down to 1.3percent in 2026 from 1.6percent in 2025 and settle at 1.4percent in 2027. For China, achieving the 5% growth target can be considered a significant challenge as external demand worries intensify due to American tariffs. Still, domestic stimulus plans do have an effect and a possible bottoming out of the real estate market still keep growth expectations decent for the short-run, although consensus expects Chinese GDP growth to remain on a downward trend for the medium-term. For 2025, consensus expects 4.5percent growth, down to 4.1percent in 2026 and 2027. While weaker demand from major trading partners poses a headwind, Australia’s limited direct exposure to US trade barriers will help cushion the impact. Growth will be supported by a strong labour market, solid disposable incomes, and resilient household consumption, despite subdued business investment amid heightened tariff uncertainty. Growth is expected to have come in at 1.8percent in 2025, with a pick-up expected for 2026 to 2.2percent and 2.5percent for 2027. When compared to the December 2024 consensus forecast, the June 2025 forecast has deteriorated slightly on the back of geo-political tensions and economic uncertainty. Global GDP is expected to increase by 2.0percent in 2025 (compared to 2.4percent assumed before) and is expected to grow by 2.1percent in 2026 ( 2.4percent assumed before). With the energy crisis and pandemic now further behind us, the consensus for economic activity in major markets is showing smaller deviations over time despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty still being very prevalent. Alternative scenarios and risks (*) The baseline scenario assumes continued steady economic growth. However, a longer period of weakness, due to even more concerning geopolitical tensions, persistent elevated inflation and trade tensions could lead to a more protracted and deeper economic slowdown. As such, the balance of risks to the baseline outlook is negative, and the alternative scenarios have a downward skew in line with the outcomes of the Global Risk Survey of the before mentioned leading third-party service provider. The downside scenario sees a recession in 2025 and 2026 for most countries. Unemployment increases strongly in this scenario and house prices in most countries show outright falls.