Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-08-12
Form Type: DRS
Source: 0000950123-25-007520
Chunk: 150

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-08-12
Form: DRS
Chunk 150
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 on the
United States’ trade partners, especially China. He would seek to negotiate measures with the Chinese authorities that benefit the US economy. Thus, uncertainty and a trend towards greater protectionism in several regions would mount.
Preference for reducing external dependence and improving autonomy in strategic sectors (e.g. technology) could also be a factor in favor of adopting protectionist policies. Moreover, Trump’s isolationist policy undermines major multilateral
consensus, accentuating a lack of international cooperation in different areas (in addition to international trade, also in climate, technology regulation, cybersecurity, etc.).

The volatile and erratic nature of inflation is expected to be accentuated by new supply shocks (new tariffs, more volatile energy prices,
reconfiguration of production chains, convulsive geopolitics, climate shocks, etc.) and an expansionary fiscal policy. In the Eurozone, inflation could be somewhat below the target due to economic weakness in the region. In the United States on the
other hand, inflation is expected to remain somewhat above central banks’ targets and to swing within wider ranges.

In terms of
economic policy, the monetary policy gap between the United States and the Eurozone is expected to widen. The Federal Reserve might be more cautious with its monetary policy, and the target interest rate is forecast to remain at relatively high
levels amidst more erratic fiscal policy, sustained growth and higher inflation. The ECB is expected to cut the policy rate below monetary neutrality, in response to a scenario of greater deterioration in activity. In the medium term, it is expected
to maintain the policy rate around the estimates of monetary neutrality due to the rising risk of inflation.

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As confidentially submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 11, 2025. This Amendment No. 4 has not been publicly filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and all information herein remains strictly confidential. In relation to the financial markets, yields on long-term government bonds are expected to remain at relatively high levels, due to a higher term premium on the back of volatility in growth and inflation figures and high sovereign financing needs, among other factors. Sovereign debt risk premiums in the European periphery might remain at contained levels and in line with their respective ratings. On the currency market, the dollar is expected to show further strength, due to the widening of the pro-US rate differential, the improved performance of the US economy and the uncertainty caused by political and geopolitical risks. In Spain, the economy is expected to continue to grow above its potential in the first years of the forecast horizon and to show