Company: FITBI
Filing Date: 2025-05-06
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000035527-25-000137
Chunk: 61

Company: FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
Filing Date: 2025-05-06
Form: 10-Q
Item: Item 7
Chunk 61
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7. The Treasury rate environment is expected to be relatively stable with the 10-year yield remaining within a narrow projected range of 4.3% to 4.4% through 2027. Credit spreads are projected to expand from 1.6% at the start of the scenario to a peak of 2.5% in mid-2026. Lastly, the Baseline scenario assumed additional cuts to the target federal funds rate, with an average federal funds rate of 4.2% in 2025 that decreases to an average of 3.4% and 3.0% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The Upside scenario assumed that, on an average annual basis, the change in real GDP is 2.5% in 2025, 2.7% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The Upside scenario also assumed an average unemployment rate of 3.5% in 2025, 3.4% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. In this scenario, 10-year Treasury yields are fairly stable, reaching a peak of 4.5% in the second quarter of 2025, while credit spreads are consistent with the Baseline scenario, peaking at 2.5% in mid-2026. In the Upside scenario, the forecast for federal funds rate cuts was generally consistent with the Baseline scenario. 

The Downside scenario included significant worsening of economic conditions, causing the U.S. economy to fall into a recession in the second quarter of 2025. The Downside scenario assumed that real GDP declines from the first quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2025, with a cumulative decline of 2.6%, recovering to an average annualized GDP growth rate of 2.4% for the full year of 2027. The Downside scenario assumed an average unemployment rate of 6.2% in 2025, increasing to an average of 8.2% in 2026 and decreasing to an average of 7.1% in 2027. In this scenario, the 10-year treasury yield increases to 4.7% in mid-2025, then drops to 3.1% by the end of 2025. Credit spreads also expand in this scenario, reaching a peak of 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the Down