Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-09-05
Form Type: F-4/A
Source: 0001193125-25-196513
Chunk: 530

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-09-05
Form: F-4/A
Chunk 530
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, the economy maintains significant growth momentum thanks to the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, lower 
 interest rates and the use of the NGEU funds.                                                                          |

Alternative scenario 2: Halt in disinflation process, financial instability and recession

| • |     | The scenario centres on the potential materialisation of risks to financial stability. |

| • |     | At first, the inflation moderation process stops prematurely and inflation stabilises at levels clearly above central                                 
 banks’ targets during 2024. Against this backdrop, central banks are forced to further tighten their monetary policies during the first half of 2024. |

| • |     | The financial vulnerabilities in the current environment have the potential to trigger significant financial                             
 instability. Additional monetary tightening clearly increases the likelihood of persistent financial stress with economic repercussions. |

| • |     | The global economy falls into a recession in 2024, as a result of financial instability and the accumulated monetary 
 tightening. Labour markets deteriorate with sharp rises in unemployment.                                             |

| • |     | Despite the initial downward stickiness of inflation, it eventually recedes due to damage to the credit channel, 
 financial market dislocation and economic recession.                                                             |

| • |     | Monetary policy is forced to respond to financial instability through balance sheet policies and liquidity programmes. 
 Central banks also cut official interest rates to expansive levels.                                                    |

| • |     | Global financing conditions tighten, in terms of both capital markets and credit. Government bond yields end up falling 
 in the face of central banks’ monetary policy shift, economic recession and decreasing inflation.                       |

| • |     | Periphery risk premiums rise sharply, reducing fiscal headroom in some countries. |

| • |     | The Spanish economy falls into a recession in the first half of 2024 and records negative growth until the second half                                       
 of 2025. This is influenced by tightened credit supply, the economic weakness of its main trading partners and the uncertainty characterising this scenario. |

As at 31 December 2023 and 2022, the main forecast variables considered for Spain and the United Kingdom are those shown below:

| %                      |     |            |      |     |        |      |     |        |      |     |        |      |     |        |      |     |                |      |     |        |      |     |        |      |     |        |     |     |        |     |
|                        |     | 31/12/2023 |