Company: CMA
Filing Date: 2025-07-30
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000028412-25-000197
Chunk: 120

Company: COMERICA INC
Filing Date: 2025-07-30
Form: 10-Q
Item: Part I, Item 1
Chunk 120
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 and into 2026. Reduced demand for office space and subdued economic activity in the central business districts of major metro areas are also expected to persist as drags on the broader economy. These headwinds are expected to be partially offset by the expansionary effects of fiscal policies which, at June 30, 2025, looked likely to be enacted in future periods.

These factors shaped the 2-year reasonable and supportable forecasts used by the Corporation in its CECL estimate at June 30, 2025. The U.S. economy was projected to grow at a below-trend rate through the rest of 2025 before gradually normalizing to its trend growth rate in 2026. The unemployment rate was expected to hold below 5%, while interest rate forecasts reflected market expectations and guidance from the FRB available during the second quarter of 2025. The following table summarizes select variables representative of the economic forecasts used to develop the CECL estimate at June 30, 2025.

Economic VariableBase ForecastReal GDP growthGrowth slows to less than 1.0% in third quarter 2025 before recovering to over 2.0% annualized in the second half of 2026. Unemployment rateRemains between 4.3% and 4.6% throughout the forecast period. Spread of Corporate BBB bond to 10-year Treasury bondSpread widens to 2.2% by second quarter 2026 before gradually narrowing to 2.0% over the remainder of the forecast period.Oil PricesPrices generally hover between $63 and $65 per barrel over the forecast period.

Due to the high level of uncertainty regarding assumptions used as inputs to the forecast, the Corporation evaluated a range of economic scenarios, including more benign and more severe economic forecasts. In a more severe scenario, real GDP was projected to contract through first quarter 2026, subsequently recovering to growth of 1.7% by the end of the forecast period. In this scenario, oil prices fell to $44 per barrel by third quarter 2026, followed by an increase to $54 per barrel by second quarter 2027, while the unemployment rate remained elevated through the forecast period. Selecting the more severe forecast would result in an increase in the quantitative calculation of the allowance for credit losses of approximately $313 

53

million as of June 30, 2025. However, factoring in model overlays and qualitative adjustments could result in a materially different estimate under a more severe scenario. The Corporation monitors