Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-02-27
Form Type: F-4/A
Source: 0001193125-25-037317
Chunk: 316

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-02-27
Form: F-4/A
Chunk 316
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 contained.                                                                                                             |

| • |     | In Spain, the economy maintains significant growth momentum thanks to productivity gains, the resolution of the 
 conflict in Ukraine, lower interest rates and the use of the NGEU funds.                                        |

Alternative scenario 2: financial instability and recession

| • |     | The scenario centres on the potential materialisation of risks to financial stability. The financial vulnerabilities in                                                         
 the current environment have the potential to trigger significant financial instability. The main vulnerabilities notably include (i) the systemic nature of non-bank financial |

A-82

| institutions and their interconnections with the banking system, (ii) microstructure problems in core markets, such as treasuries, (iii) the situation in the Commercial Real Estate 
 (CRE) sector, and (iv) vulnerabilities in China’s real estate and financial sectors.                                                                                                 |

| • |     | Factors such as the reduction of central bank balance sheets (QT) or the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy shift may 
 be other events that exacerbate these vulnerabilities.                                                             |

| • |     | The global economy falls into a recession, as a result of this financial instability and more restrictive financial 
 conditions. Labour markets deteriorate with sharp rises in unemployment.                                            |

| • |     | Inflation falls due to damage to the credit channel, financial market dislocation and the economic recession, and                                                 
 reaches a level below the monetary policy target. The prices of oil and other commodities fall significantly and also contribute to this lower rate of inflation. |

| • |     | Central banks take action to safeguard financial stability through their balance sheet policies and reinstate their 
 liquidity programmes. Authorities also rapidly cut official interest rates to expansionary levels.                  |

| • |     | Global financing conditions tighten, in terms of both capital markets and credit. In the financial markets, risk asset 
 prices fall, further exacerbated by market infrastructure and illiquidity problems.                                    |

| • |     | Government bond yields decline in the face of official interest rates cuts, economic recession and falling inflation. |

| • |     | Periphery risk premiums rise sharply, reducing fiscal headroom in some countries. |

| • |     | The Spanish economy falls into a recession in the first half of 2025 and records negative growth until the second half                                       
 of 2026. This is influenced by tightened credit supply, the economic weakness of its main trading partners and the uncertainty characterising this scenario. |

As at 31 December 2024 and 202