Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-09-09
Form Type: 424B3
Source: 0001193125-25-198517
Chunk: 405

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-09-09
Form: 424B3
Chunk 405
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 conditions, a greater positive impact of interest rate cuts than that envisaged in the baseline scenario and a swift and far-reaching deployment of artificial intelligence, comparable to other big 
 technological revolutions such as electricity and IT.                                                                                                                                                |

| • |     | The geopolitical environment improves as a result of the various ongoing wars coming to an end, which dissipates a                                                                                               
 current source of uncertainty. With that, global supply conditions improve substantially and recover features similar to those pre-Covid. Furthermore, the global supply of energy and commodities remains broad 
 with relatively low prices.                                                                                                                                                                                      |

| • |     | Artificial intelligence applications are deployed across multiple sectors of the economy and faster than envisaged in                                                                                                                                   
 the baseline scenario. Additionally, this technology enhances the capabilities of previous innovations, such as robotisation. All of this results in productivity gains, with productivity growth at near record-high levels. Global economic growth is 
 thus stronger and more synchronised than in the baseline scenario.                                                                                                                                                                                      |

| • |     | Inflation falls faster than in the baseline scenario and remains at levels close to the monetary policy targets of the                                                                                                                          
 respective central banks. This is explained by a lack of disruptions in production chains and productivity gains, which makes cost absorption easier and results in more moderate second-round effects. In turn, this improves economic agents’ 
 expectations that the level of prices will remain close to central banks’ targets.                                                                                                                                                              |

| • |     | This environment allows central banks to ease their monetary policies in the near term. |

| • |     | Global financing conditions remain lax, with no episodes of risk aversion. |

| • |     | The macroeconomic and financial environment allows risk premiums on both peripheral debt and corporate bonds to remain 
 contained.                                                                                                             |

| • |     | In Spain, the economy maintains significant growth momentum thanks to productivity gains, the resolution of the 
 conflict in Ukraine, lower interest rates and the use of the NGEU funds.                                        |

Alternative scenario 2: financial instability and recession

| • |     | The scenario centres on the potential materialisation of risks to financial stability. The financial vulnerabilities in                                                         
 the current environment have the potential to trigger significant financial instability. The main vulnerabilities notably include (i) the systemic nature of non-bank financial |

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| institutions and their interconnections with the banking system, (ii) microstructure problems in core markets, such as treasuries, (iii) the situation in the Commercial Real Estate 
 (CRE) sector, and