Company: LLOBF
Filing Date: 2025-07-24
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001160106-25-000034
Chunk: 56

Company: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Filing Date: 2025-07-24
Form: 6-K
Chunk 56
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 day pause expires, resulting in an increased effective tariff rate relative to prior assumptions. Third, the UK Industrial Strategy and Spending Review are not assumed to substantially change the UK fiscal outlook. Based on these assumptions and incorporating the economic data published in the second quarter of 2025, the Group’s base case scenario is for a slow expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) and a further rise in the unemployment rate alongside small gains in residential and commercial property prices. With underlying inflationary pressures expected to recede, gradual cuts in UK Bank Rate are expected to continue during 2025, reaching a ‘neutral’ policy stance in 2026. Risks around this base case economic view lie in both directions and are largely captured by the generation of alternative economic scenarios. The Group has taken into account the latest available information at the reporting date in defining its base case scenario and generating alternative economic scenarios. The scenarios include forecasts for key variables as at the second quarter of 2025. Actuals for this period, or restatements of past data, may have since emerged prior to publication and have not been included. The Group’s approach to generating alternative economic scenarios is set out in detail in note 21 to the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024 . For June 2025, the Group continues to judge it appropriate to include a non-modelled severe downside scenario for Group ECL calculations. The scenario is now generated as a simple average of a fully modelled severe scenario, better representing shocks to demand, and a scenario with higher paths for UK Bank Rate and CPI inflation, as a representation of shocks to supply. The combined ‘adjusted’ scenario used in ECL modelling is considered to better reflect the risks around the Group’s base case view in an economic environment where demand and supply shocks are more balanced. Scenarios by year The key UK economic assumptions made by the Group are shown in the following tables across a number of measures explained below. Annual assumptions Gross domestic product (GDP) growth and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation are presented as an annual change, house price growth and commercial real estate price growth are presented as the growth in the respective indices over each year. Unemployment rate and UK Bank Rate are averages over the year. Five-year average The five-year average reflects the average annual growth rate, or level, over the five-year period. It includes movements within the current reporting year, such that the position as of 30 June 2025 covers the five years 2025 to 2029. The