Company: CIB
Filing Date: 2025-08-15
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0002058897-25-000035
Chunk: 21

Company: Grupo Cibest S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-08-15
Form: 6-K
Chunk 21
---
 has exhibited a gradual acceleration in economic growth and for the first quarter of 2025 it showed an annual advance of 5.2%. Despite the disruptions associated with the El Niño phenomenon, there was evidence of a recovery in the operation of the Panama Canal; in addition, there has been a boom in tourism, which helped to compensate for the cessation of mining activity. With respect to prices, the controls applied to food and medicines, together with the reduction in oil prices, have led to negative inflation rates that for June reached -0.4% annually. This trend would begin to correct as global geopolitical tensions exert upward pressures on import and transportation costs. However, the economic outlook presents two significant challenges. First, the relocation of workers dismissed by the Cobre Panama mine could be limited, or even reversed, in the face of the demonstrations presented by the announcement of a cessation of operations by the banana company Chiquita Panama. Second, although the president has expressed his commitment to the consolidation of public finances, this process would face obstacles associated, on the one hand, with low levels of tax collection and, on the other, with the existence of significant rigidities in public spending, such as the annual transfer of close to USD1,000 million to the pension system.

#### Guatemala
The country has shown one of the best performances in the Central American region in recent years, driven by the solid growth of financial activities and textile exports, as well as by the dynamism generated by the boom in tourism in the commercial and hotel sectors. At the same time, inflation has remained consistently below the Bank of Guatemala's target, due to low international oil prices and the dissipation of supply shocks. Going forward, we expect the economy to maintain a favorable trajectory, as greater investment in infrastructure

| 25 |

projects and tourism offset the potential reduction in remittance inflows as a result of tighter U.S. immigration policy. In linewith this panorama, the government of President Arévalo has shown a greater willingness to increase spending on infrastructure and social programs, so we estimate that the public administration would provide an additional boost to growth. However, it is important to note that Guatemala has historically been characterized by its fiscal soundness and that, although there are plans to expand spending, we do not anticipate a significant deterioration in public finances in the coming years. Finally, the Bank of Guatemala has indicated that its monetary policy decisions will remain in line with those of the U.S. Federal Reserve, so we only foresee two cuts in its interest rate during