Company: CIB
Filing Date: 2025-11-14
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0002058897-25-000052
Chunk: 25

Company: Grupo Cibest S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-11-14
Form: 6-K
Chunk 25
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 a phase of macroeconomic stabilization. GDP grew by 2.4% year-over-year in the first half, reinforcing expectations of a 2.6% expansion for the full year. At the same time, inflation has stagnated around 5.0% through September, opening the possibility of reaching the monetary policy target range by 2027. In response to this trend, the Central Bank has kept its interest rate at 9.25% since April, amid a narrative that has prioritized caution in the monetary easing process.

However, significant challenges persist. The activation of the escape clause under the Fiscal Rule has allowed the government to project a fiscal deficit of 7.1% of GDP and a gross debt level that, according to our estimates, could exceed 63% of GDP. Additionally, the international environment remains complex, characterized by new tariff measures and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—factors that are likely to continue generating uncertainty due to their potential impact on inflation and the path of domestic monetary policy.

In terms of foreign trade, the imposition of a universal 10% tariff by the United States on Colombian goods has not substantially altered the country’s competitive position relative to other economies. In fact, Colombia has improved its standing compared to China, which faces significantly higher tariffs. Nonetheless, competitiveness has been adversely affected in relation to goods covered under the trade agreement between Mexico, Canada, and the United States.

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Against this backdrop, Colombia is expected to continue progressing toward a gradual stabilization of its key macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates. While the 10% tariff may pose moderate risks to specific productive sectors, financial volatility remains the primary source of short-term macroeconomic uncertainty.

#### Panama
Panama's economy has grown at a real rate of 4.4% so far this year, surpassing analysts' consensus, which expected a 3.6% growth. This growth has been driven by productive activity in the logistics sector, led by the performance of the Panama Canal, the Colón Free Trade Zone, and Tocumen Airport (regarding the specific performance of the Panama Canal, it is important to mention that part of the dynamic growth was explained by a statistical effect due to a low base of comparison). Meanwhile, the trade, financial, and real estate sectors have also been key in consolidating economic growth so far this year, along with the performance of the tourism sector. This observed behavior has led analysts to revise upward their full-year economic growth projections. According to