Company: BCS
Filing Date: 2025-07-29
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001654954-25-008608
Chunk: 28

Company: BARCLAYS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-07-29
Form: 6-K
Chunk 28
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 under the Capital Requirements Regulation and model monitoring across products; and a recalibration adjustment to correct for Probability of Default (PD) over-prediction in Retail credit cards (UK) and Corporate loans (ROW).**

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Retail mortgages (UK) £72m (December 2024: £71m): The adjustments remain broadly stable

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Retail credit cards (UK) £(127)m (December 2024: £(22)m): The movement is primarily driven by a recalibration adjustment to correct for PD over-prediction driven by resilient customer behaviour, underpinned by model monitoring controls

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Retail credit cards (ROW) £nil (December 2024: £(23)m): The movement is informed by the retirement of an adjustment in the US cards portfolio for high-risk account management (HRAM) accounts following model remediation during the year

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Retail other (UK) £84m (December 2024: £90m): The adjustments remain broadly stable

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Corporate loans (UK) £40m (December 2024: £39m): The adjustments remain broadly stable

#### ●

Corporate loans (ROW) £(55)m (December 2024: £(2)m): The movement is driven by a recalibration adjustment to correct for PD over-prediction driven by resilient customer behaviour, underpinned by model monitoring controls

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Debt securities £nil (December 2024: £(7)m): The movement is informed by the retirement of an adjustment following model remediation

#### Measurement uncertainty
Scenarios used to calculate the Group’s ECL charge were refreshed in Q225, with the Baseline scenario reflecting the latest consensus macroeconomic forecasts available at the time of the scenario refresh. The Baseline scenario reflects the rapidly changing trade policies and uncertainty around potential tariffs to be imposed by the US administration and responses by other governments. Global growth slows modestly as rising US tariffs and retaliatory measures disrupt trade flows, dampen business confidence, and weigh on investment, though domestic demand in advanced economies remains resilient. UK and US GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 0.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Labour markets in major economies soften slightly amid increased uncertainty and slower export-oriented activity. However, the weakening is contained and does not rise significantly from current levels. UK and US unemployment rates peak at 4.7% and 4.6%, respectively. Central Banks continue to loosen monetary policy albeit at a faster pace