Company: LLOBF
Filing Date: 2025-07-24
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001654954-25-008460
Chunk: 69

Company: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Filing Date: 2025-07-24
Form: 6-K
Chunk 69
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 economic environment where the risks of supply and demand shocks are seen as more balanced.

NOTES TO THE CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED HALF-YEAR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED) (continued)

Note 12: Allowance for expected credit losses (continued)

Base case scenario by quarter

Gross domestic product growth is presented quarter-on-quarter. House price growth, commercial real estate price growth and CPI inflation are presented year-on-year, i.e. from the equivalent quarter in the previous year. Unemployment rate and UK Bank Rate are presented as at the end of each quarter.

| At 30 June 2025                     |   First 
 quarter 
    2025 
       % |  Second 
 quarter 
    2025 
       % |   Third 
 quarter 
    2025 
       % |  Fourth 
 quarter 
    2025 
       % |   First 
 quarter 
    2026 
       % |  Second 
 quarter 
    2026 
       % |   Third 
 quarter 
    2026 
       % |  Fourth 
 quarter 
    2026 
       % |
| Gross domestic product growth       |     0.7 |     0.0 |     0.1 |     0.2 |     0.3 |     0.3 |     0.4 |     0.4 |
| Unemployment rate                   |     4.5 |     4.7 |     4.9 |     5.0 |     5.0 |     5.0 |     4.9 |     4.9 |
| House price growth                  |     2.9 |     3.1 |     2.7 |     2.6 |     3.7 |     4.0 |     3.5 |     3.0 |
| Commercial real estate price growth |     2.5 |     2.7 |     2.6 |     1.6 |     1.2 |     1.0 |     1.0 |     1.1 |
| UK Bank Rate                        |    4.50 |    4.25 |    4.00 |    3.75 |    3.75 |    3.50 |    3.50 |    3.50 |
| CPI inflation                       |