Company: FCNCB
Filing Date: 2025-11-07
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000798941-25-000050
Chunk: 229

Company: FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/
Filing Date: 2025-11-07
Form: 10-Q
Item: Item 1
Chunk 229
---
 the Estimate of the ALLL

While management utilizes its best judgment and information available, the ultimate adequacy of our ALLL is dependent upon a variety of factors beyond our control which are inherently difficult to predict, the most significant being the macroeconomic scenario forecasts that determine the economic variables, including the U.S. unemployment rate, U.S. real gross domestic product (“GDP”), home price index (“HPI”), and CRE price index utilized in the ALLL models. These economic variables are based on macroeconomic scenario forecasts with a forecast horizon that covers the reasonable and supportable period. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the macroeconomic forecasts, BancShares utilizes baseline, upside, and downside macroeconomic scenarios and weights the scenarios based on review of variable forecasts for each scenario and comparison to expectations. 

The potential impacts of new trade, tariff and other economic policies in the United States were more prevalently reflected in the baseline macroeconomic scenario, which resulted in a modest shift in our weighting from the downside to baseline economic scenario in the linked quarter. The scenario weighting in the current quarter was unchanged from the linked quarter.

At September 30, 2025, ALLL estimates ranged from approximately $1.41 billion, when weighing the upside scenario 100%, to approximately $2.07 billion when weighting the downside scenario 100%. BancShares management determined that an ALLL of $1.65 billion was appropriate as of September 30, 2025.  

The following table presents the U.S. unemployment rate, U.S. real GDP, HPI, and CRE price index based on the weighted-average scenario forecasts used in determining the ALLL at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024. The projected trends in the macroeconomic variables below may fluctuate depending on the underlying scenarios and our scenario weighting assumptions utilized for the applicable period. 

Table 33Select Variables in ALLL Weighted-average Scenarios

Assumptions as of September 30, 2025202520262027U.S. unemployment rate (1)4.5 %5.4 %5.4 %U.S. real GDP (2)1.3 %1.0 %1.6 %HPI (2)0.7 %(1.7)%2.6 %CRE price index (2)(1.0)%(3.5)%(0.6)%Assumptions as of December 31, 2024202520262027U.S