Company: SMNR
Filing Date: 2025-06-11
Form Type: S-4/A
Source: 0001193125-25-139124
Chunk: 346

Company: Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Filing Date: 2025-06-11
Form: S-4/A
Chunk 346
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 acute spinal injury, discogenic pain, and injections for knee, shoulders, wrists, ankles and joints. Semnur estimates that Non-LR gross sales will account for |

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| approximately 55% of estimated gross sales for each period on an aggregate basis, but has not otherwise estimated sales on a per Non-LR indication basis. Semnur is not currently targeting or otherwise seeking FDA approval for the use of SP-102 for any Non-LR indications. |

| (b) | In addition to Semnur management’s internal analysis of the results of the Research Report, Semnur’s management also considered primary market research with healthcare professional specialists as well as Semnur’s assessment of the competitive landscape and that there are currently no FDA-approved epidural steroid injection therapies for sciatica (which, if approved, would make SP-102 the first such product to be approved), and as a result Semnur’s management is conservatively projecting market share of 0.6% during the first year of launch with peak market share of 39.2% in the seventh year post launch, decreasing to 29.0% after the expiration of the SP-102 patent in 2036 and gradually declining each year thereafter to 10.4% in 2043. |

| (c) | Semnur’s management estimates that the price per injection will be $400 the first year after the commercial launch, with an inflation adjustment of 3% per year thereafter. Based on the above projected price per unit, market share and market growth rate information, Semnur projected annual sales of approximately $55.8 million in the first year after the commercial launch of SP-102, and annual sales of approximately $4.9 billion in the fifth year after the commercial launch, which will grow to the peak of approximately $5.9 billion in 2036 and will begin to decline gradually after the expiration of the SP-102 patent. Semnur’s management anticipates revenues will drop to approximately $4.7 billion during the first year after the expiration of the SP-102 patent and continue to decline to approximately $2.1 billion in 2039, after which the revenues will remain relatively flat. |

| (2) | Cost of sales projections are based on Semnur management’s expected negotiated contract prices with Genzyme under a supply agreement that Semnur is currently discussing with Sanofi, an affiliate of Genzyme, pursuant to which Genzyme would provide Semnur with