Company: TPET
Filing Date: 2025-04-15
Form Type: 10-K/A
Source: 0001641172-25-004910
Chunk: 23

Company: Trio Petroleum Corp.
Filing Date: 2025-04-15
Form: 10-K/A
Chunk 23
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 Because decline curve analysis could not be used to forecast reserves, and since the development of type curves was problematic due to the early historical time frame in which the analog fields were developed, probabilistic methods were employed. The interpretations of open hole logs, core, and test information were used to describe ranges and distributions of key reservoir parameters. These were then input to numerical simulation models that used Monte Carlo sampling and hundreds of runs to derive forecasts of production and ultimate recovery representing P90 (1P), P50 (2P) and P10 (3P) reserve estimates. As indicated in the nomenclature of TABLE 22, these estimates are also known as Proved, Proved+Probable, and Proved+Probable+Possible, respectively. The designation ‘P50’ means there is a 50 percent probability that the actual production will exceed the value reported as the P50 reserves. The P50 value, also considered the Best or Most Likely estimate, is derived from a cumulative frequency distribution of forecast reserves from the Monte Carlo simulations. If Proved reserves have been assigned, Probable reserves are then represented by the difference between the P50 and P90 probabilistic estimates. However, as explained below, Proved reserves have not been assigned in this report because project approval has not been secured by all necessary government entities. Therefore, since there are no Proved or P90 volumes, the Probable reserves disclosed herein, derived from the P50 probabilistic forecasts, are incremental volumes and presented as Probable (P2) reserves. The P10 reserve estimate has a 10 percent probability of exceeding the estimated recovery and is also known as the High estimate. Possible reserves are represented by the difference between the P10 and P50 estimates. Possible reserves are typically larger than Probable reserves. This is the result of the key reservoir parameter distributions reflecting their variation in nature, and when the most favorable parameters are sampled together the resulting calculation provides the highest, but least likely, values of estimated recoveries.”

“ Probable reserves are assigned in certain areas where, as described above, reserves could be considered Proved if all regulatory approvals and permits were in place. Probable reserves are also assigned in areas where well control and interpretations of available data provide sufficient geologic evidence of reservoir continuity at structural positions above lowest known hydrocarbons (LKH), and where engineering evidence indicates the reservoir will have the requisite porosity, permeability and oil saturation to produce commercial quantities of oil and gas. The assignment of Possible reserves does not incorporate a larger reservoir area