Company: TPET
Filing Date: 2025-01-17
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0001493152-25-002760
Chunk: 263

Company: Trio Petroleum Corp.
Filing Date: 2025-01-17
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 1
Chunk 263
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 and probabilistic modeling. Copied below are two paragraphs from the Current Reserve Report that further explain the Company’s
estimated reserves:

9

“Because
decline curve analysis could not be used to forecast reserves, and since the development of type curves was problematic due to the early
historical time frame in which the analog fields were developed, probabilistic methods were employed. The interpretations of open hole
logs, core, and test information were used to describe ranges and distributions of key reservoir parameters. These were then input to
numerical simulation models that used Monte Carlo sampling and hundreds of runs to derive forecasts of production and ultimate recovery
representing P90 (1P), P50 (2P) and P10 (3P) reserve estimates. As indicated in the nomenclature of TABLE 22, these estimates are also
known as Proved, Proved+Probable, and Proved+Probable+Possible, respectively. The designation ‘P50’ means there is a 50 percent
probability that the actual production will exceed the value reported as the P50 reserves. The P50 value, also considered the Best or
Most Likely estimate, is derived from a cumulative frequency distribution of forecast reserves from the Monte Carlo simulations. If Proved
reserves have been assigned, Probable reserves are then represented by the difference between the P50 and P90 probabilistic estimates.
However, as explained below, Proved reserves have not been assigned in this report because project approval has not been secured by all
necessary government entities. Therefore, since there are no Proved or P90 volumes, the Probable reserves disclosed herein, derived from
the P50 probabilistic forecasts, are incremental volumes and presented as Probable (P2) reserves. The P10 reserve estimate has a 10 percent
probability of exceeding the estimated recovery and is also known as the High estimate. Possible reserves are represented by the difference
between the P10 and P50 estimates. Possible reserves are typically larger than Probable reserves. This is the result of the key reservoir
parameter distributions reflecting their variation in nature, and when the most favorable parameters are sampled together the resulting
calculation provides the highest, but least likely, values of estimated recoveries.”

“Probable
reserves are assigned in certain areas where, as described above, reserves could be considered Proved if all regulatory approvals and
permits were in place. Probable reserves are also assigned in areas where well control and interpretations of available data provide
sufficient geologic evidence