Company: FCNCB
Filing Date: 2025-08-08
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000798941-25-000040
Chunk: 388

Company: FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/
Filing Date: 2025-08-08
Form: 10-Q
Item: Item 8
Chunk 388
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 based on review of variable forecasts for each scenario and comparison to expectations. 

For the Current Quarter, the potential impacts of new trade, tariff and other economic policies in the United States were more prevalently reflected in the baseline macroeconomic scenario, which resulted in a modest shift in our weighting from the downside to baseline economic scenario. 

At June 30, 2025, ALLL estimates ranged from approximately $1.42 billion, when weighing the upside scenario 100%, to approximately $2.12 billion when weighting the downside scenario 100%. BancShares management determined that an ALLL of $1.67 billion was appropriate as of June 30, 2025.  

The following table presents the U.S. unemployment rate, U.S. real GDP, HPI, and CRE price index based on the weighted-average scenario forecasts used in determining the ALLL at June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024. The projected trends in the macroeconomic variables below may fluctuate depending on the underlying scenarios and our scenario weighting assumptions utilized for the applicable period. 

Table 33

Select Variables in ALLL Weighted-average Scenarios

Assumptions as of June 30, 2025202520262027U.S. unemployment rate (1)4.5 %5.5 %5.5 %U.S. real GDP (2)1.2 %0.9 %2.1 %HPI (2)1.9 %(0.7)%2.5 %CRE price index (2)(0.4)%(2.8)%5.9 %Assumptions as of December 31, 2024202520262027U.S. unemployment rate (1)5.0 %5.1 %4.7 %U.S. real GDP (2)1.4 %1.7 %2.3 %HPI (2)(1.3)%2.0 %2.8 %CRE price index (2)(3.6)%0.4 %8.8 %

(1) Represents the quarterly average U.S. unemployment rate for the years ending December 31, 2025, 2026 and 2027.

(2) Represents the year-over-year percent changes.

Qualitative Component of the ALLL

ALLL model outputs may be adjusted through a qualitative assessment to reflect trends that may not be adequately reflected within the