Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-02-27
Form Type: F-4/A
Source: 0001193125-25-037317
Chunk: 314

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-02-27
Form: F-4/A
Chunk 314
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 relatively high levels amidst more erratic fiscal policy, sustained growth and slightly higher inflation. The ECB, for its part, ends up cutting the policy rate below monetary neutrality, 
 in response to a scenario of greater deterioration in activity. In the medium term, the policy rate is held around the estimates of monetary neutrality, due to the upside risk associated with inflation arising from public finances in a more         
 deteriorated state than in the past, fragility in global production chains, the emergence of potential shocks and the environment of uncertainty. Meanwhile, central banks continue to make progress on their quantitative tightening policies, although 
 they are eventually forced to stop this process to avoid causing liquidity problems in the financial markets.                                                                                                                                            |

| • |     | With interest rates still relatively high, the environment is prone to further episodes of financial stress, although                                                                                                
 the banking sector is resilient. Against this backdrop, there could be occasional spikes of instability related to some current financial vulnerabilities, which relate to the capital market infrastructure and the 
 non-bank financial sector. In any event and in general, the baseline scenario considers that these events are localised and that the authorities manage to control them; therefore, they do not end up having        
 severe and long-lasting economic repercussions.                                                                                                                                                                      |

| • |     | The Spanish economy continues to grow above its potential in the first years of the scenario’s horizon and is more 
 dynamic than the rest of the Eurozone. After a period in which the external                                        |

A-81

| sector has played a prominent role, domestic demand takes on a bigger role. Activity is underpinned by the increase in population (a consequence of migration), the favourable evolution of the 
 labour market, the absence of imbalances in private agents’ balance sheets and in the external sector, lower interest rates and a greater rollout of NGEU funds.                                |

| • |     | Private sector lending in Spain gains traction and increases across all portfolios. Its momentum is similar to that of                                                                                                                 
 nominal GDP over the entire time horizon. Credit is supported by factors such as (i) a lower interest rate environment, (ii) higher corporate financing needs stemming from higher investment, (iii) a healthy financial position, and 
 (iv) good labour market dynamics.                                                                                                                                                                                                      |

| • |     | In relation to the financial markets, yields on long-term government bonds are still maintained at relatively high                                                                                                                                      
 levels by higher target official interest rates, a higher term premium due to volatility in growth and inflation figures, high sovereign financing needs, progress