Company: LLOBF
Filing Date: 2025-05-01
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001654954-25-004952
Chunk: 9

Company: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Filing Date: 2025-05-01
Form: 6-K
Chunk 9
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 and Institutional Banking of £1 million.

**ADDITIONAL INFORMATION (continued)

Total ECL allowance by scenario – underlying basis A**

The following table shows the Group’s ECL for the probability-weighted, upside, base case, downside and severe downside scenarios, with the severe downside scenario incorporating adjustments made to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and UK Bank Rate paths.

| Underlying basisA   | Probability- 
 weighted     
 £m           |       |     | Upside 
     £m |     | Base case 
        £m |     | Downside 
       £m |     |   Severe 
 downside 
       £m |
| At 31 March 20251   |              | 3,744 |     |  2,869 |     |     3,296 |     |    4,219 |     |    6,285 |
| At 31 December 2024 |              | 3,651 |     |  2,634 |     |     3,204 |     |    4,159 |     |    6,515 |

1 Includes £100 million central adjustment held constant across all scenarios.

#### Base case and MES economic assumptions
The Group’s base case scenario is for a slow expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) and a modest rise in the unemployment rate alongside small gains in residential and commercial property prices. Inflationary pressures remain persistent, but gradual cuts in UK Bank Rate are expected to continue during 2025. Risks around this base case economic view lie in both directions and are largely captured by the generation of alternative economic scenarios.

The Group has taken into account the latest available information at the reporting date in defining its base case scenario and generating alternative economic scenarios. The scenarios include forecasts for key variables as of the first quarter of 2025. Actuals for this period, or restatements of past data, may have since emerged prior to publication and have not been included. The Group’s approach to generating alternative economic scenarios is set out in detail in note 21 to the financial statements of the Group’s 2024 annual report and accounts.

The Group had included assumptions for expected tariffs and potential responses in its quarter-end base case conditioning assumptions prior to announcements at the start of April. Initial non-UK tariffs announced in the first few days of April and the immediate market response were larger than expected. Accordingly, the Group has adopted a £100 million central adjustment to reflect the potential ECL impact, informed by