Company: ONBPP
Filing Date: 2025-02-19
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000707179-25-000005
Chunk: 136

Company: OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/
Filing Date: 2025-02-19
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 7
Chunk 136
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 a regression model to determine the likelihood of a loan moving into nonaccrual within the time horizon. For residential and consumer loans, the PD is forecasted using a regression model to determine the likelihood of a loan being charged-off within the time horizon. The regression models use combinations of variables to assess systematic and unsystematic risk. Variables used for unsystematic risk are borrower specific and help to gauge the risk of default from an individual borrower. Variables for systematic risk, risk inherent to all borrowers, come from the use of forward-looking economic forecasts and include variables such as unemployment rate, gross domestic product, home price index, and the BBB ratio. The LGD is defined as credit loss incurred when an obligor of the bank defaults. Qualitative factors include items such as changes in lending policies or procedures and economic uncertainty in forward-looking forecasts.

•Effect if Actual Results Differ From Assumptions. The allowance represents management’s best estimate, but significant downturns in circumstances relating to loan quality and economic conditions could result in a requirement for additional allowance. Likewise, an upturn in loan quality and improved economic conditions may allow a reduction in the required allowance. In either instance, unanticipated changes could have a significant impact on results of operations.

One of the most significant judgments used in determining the allowance for credit losses is the macroeconomic forecast provided by a third party. The economic indices sourced from the macroeconomic forecast and used in projecting loss rates include the national unemployment rate, changes in home price index, changes in the United States gross domestic product, and changes in the BBB ratio. The economic index used in the calculation to which the calculation may be most sensitive is the national unemployment rate. Each reporting period, several macroeconomic forecast scenarios are considered by management. Management selects the macroeconomic forecast that is most reflective of expectations at that point in time. Changes in the macroeconomic forecast, especially for the national unemployment rate, could significantly impact the calculated estimated credit losses.

The expense for credit loss recorded through earnings is the amount necessary to maintain the allowance for credit losses at the amount of expected credit losses inherent within the loans held for investment portfolio. The amount of expense and the corresponding level of allowance for credit losses on loans are based on our evaluation of the collectability of the loan portfolio based on historical loss experience, reasonable and supportable forecasts, and other significant qualitative and quantitative factors.

Derivative Financial Instruments

•Description. As part of our overall interest rate risk management, we use derivative instruments to reduce exposure to changes in interest rates