Company: CFG-PE
Filing Date: 2025-08-04
Form Type: 10-Q
Source: 0000759944-25-000108
Chunk: 219

Company: CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI
Filing Date: 2025-08-04
Form: 10-Q
Item: Part I, Item 2
Chunk 219
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 forecast is generally applied to the retail and commercial and industrial portfolios and projects peak unemployment of approximately 5.2% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.5%, compared to peak unemployment of approximately 5.1% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.4% at December 31, 2024. More severe economic scenarios are applied within the CRE portfolio, such as general office, with peak unemployment of approximately 9.3% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 4.4% at June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024. 

Our determination of the ACL is sensitive to changes in forecasted macroeconomic conditions during the reasonable and supportable forecast period. To illustrate the sensitivity, we applied a more pessimistic scenario than that described above which reflects deeper real GDP contraction across our two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period with peak unemployment of approximately 6.3% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 1.9%. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this scenario would result in a quantitative lifetime loss estimate of approximately 1.3x our modeled period-end ACL, or an increase of approximately $600 million. This analysis relates only to the modeled credit loss estimate and not to the overall period-end ACL, which includes qualitative adjustments.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | 32

Because several quantitative and qualitative factors are considered in determining the ACL, this sensitivity analysis does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the ACL or even what the ACL would be under these economic circumstances. The sensitivity analysis is intended to provide insights into the impact of adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment and the corresponding impact to modeled loss estimates. The hypothetical determination does not incorporate the impact of management judgment or other qualitative factors that could be applied in the actual estimation of the ACL and does not imply any expectation of future deterioration in our loss rates.

It remains difficult to estimate how changes in economic forecasts might affect our ACL because such forecasts consider a wide variety of variables and inputs, and changes in the variables and inputs may not occur at the same time or in the same direction, and such changes may have differing impacts by product type. The variables and inputs may be idiosyncratically affected by risks to the economy, including changing monetary and fiscal policies, impacts from the recent stress on the banking industry, and inflationary trends. Changes in one or multiple of the key macroeconomic variables may have a