Company: L
Filing Date: 2025-02-11
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000060086-25-000036
Chunk: 420

Company: LOEWS CORP
Filing Date: 2025-02-11
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 7
Chunk 420
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 react very slowly if actual ultimate loss ratios are different from expectations due to changes not accounted for by the expected loss ratio calculation.

The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method using incurred loss is similar to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method using paid loss except that it uses case incurred losses. The use of case incurred losses instead of paid losses can result in development patterns that are less variable than paid patterns. However, the inclusion of case reserves can lead to distortions if changes 

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in case reserving have taken place, and the method typically requires analysis of the same factors that need to be reviewed for the loss ratio and incurred development methods.

The frequency times severity method multiplies a projected number of ultimate claims by an estimated ultimate average loss for each accident or policy year to produce ultimate loss estimates. Since projections of the ultimate number of claims are often less variable than projections of ultimate loss, this method can provide more reliable results for reserve groups where loss development patterns are inconsistent or too variable to be relied on exclusively. In addition, this method can more directly account for changes in coverage that affect the number and size of claims. However, this method can be difficult to apply to situations where very large claims or a substantial number of unusual claims result in volatile average claim sizes. Projecting the ultimate number of claims may require analysis of several factors, including the rate at which policyholders report claims to CNA, the impact of judicial decisions, the impact of underwriting changes and other factors. Estimating the ultimate average loss may require analysis of the impact of large losses and claim cost trends based on changes in the cost of repairing or replacing property, changes in the cost of medical care, changes in the cost of wage replacement, judicial decisions, legislative changes and other factors.

Stochastic modeling produces a range of possible outcomes based on varying assumptions related to the particular reserve group being modeled. For some reserve groups, CNA uses models which rely on historical development patterns at an aggregate level, while other reserve groups are modeled using individual claim variability assumptions supplied by the claims department. In either case, multiple simulations using varying assumptions are run and the results are analyzed to produce a range of potential outcomes. The results will typically include a mean and percentiles of the possible reserve distribution which aid in the selection of a point estimate.

For many exposures, especially those that can be considered long-tail, a particular accident or policy year may not have a sufficient volume of paid losses to produce a statistically reliable estimate of ultimate losses. In such a case, CNA’s actuaries typically