Company: BCS
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0000312069-25-000114
Chunk: 364

Company: BARCLAYS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form: 20-F
Chunk 364
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 East have made central banks pursue a slower than expected reduction path for interest rates. In 2024 these ‘higher-for- longer’ rates have dampened economic activity, increasing fears of a hard- landing scenario across the US, Europe and the UK which could have a material adverse effect on the Group's results of operations and profitability. • A significant proportion of the Group’s portfolio is located in the US, including a major credit card portfolio and a range of corporate and investment banking exposures. The results of the 2024 US elections suggest a reduced risk of a debt-ceiling crisis in the near term but increased potenti al for significant changes in US policy by the new administration in certain sectors which could negatively impact certain portfolios or clients . The long-term impacts of the new policies announced since the new administration took office remain uncertain although they may, depending on their implementation and the reactions they generate, create inflationary pressures, lead to diverging regulatory agendas compared to other regions where the Group operates, usher in an era of deregulation in the US banking sector (which, in turn, could result in increased competitive pressures on non-US banks), fuel government indebtedness and/or provoke disorderly market corrections. The potential adverse impact of such events on business performance, unemployment, competitiveness and economic output could lead to higher levels of impairment or lower revenues, which could have a material adverse effect on the Group's results of operations and profitability. • The adoption of tariffs and other protectionist measures or countermeasures, particularly by the US, would further complicate the economic outlook for the EU, China and other export-driven emerging markets given their trade surpluses. This could have a material adverse effect on the Group’s business in the affected regions. • The EU faces a number of structural challenges and is vulnerable to adverse geopolitical developments. Key difficulties for the EU include heavily indebted governments, a lack of productivity growth, tight labour markets and deteriorating demographics. In addition, some of the EU's key economic sectors, including automobiles and renewables, are under pressure from competitive imports and potential tariffs on exports to the US . Uncertainty surrounding NATO's future and pressure to increase spending add to the vulnerability. A deterioration in these difficulties could adversely impact the Group's business in the EU. • In China, a property market slump, shrinking exports, and weakened currency (and resulting capital outflows) have caused an economic slowdown, with deflation a real risk. The high levels of debt, particularly in the property sector, remain a concern given the high leverage multiples. It remains uncertain whether