Company: RTNTF
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0001628280-25-006642
Chunk: 85

Company: RIO TINTO LTD
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form: 20-F
Chunk 85
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 but are met by fragmented and variablepolicy responses. |

Aspirational Leadership scenario 1.5°C This scenario reflects our view of a world of high economic growth, significant social change and accelerated climate action that achieves net zero emissions by mid-century. While GDP growth is similar to that in our Conviction scenario, significantly more ambitious climate policy limits warming to 1.5°C (aligning with SSP1-1.9). This scenario affects our balance sheet in different ways and is subject to great uncertainty. Overall, in Aspirational Leadership the Group's economic performance would fall between Conviction and Resilience. While higher scrap use reduces the medium-term demand for Pilbara products, increased carbon pricing and penalties boost long-term demand for high-grade iron ore. Aluminium demand growth is limited in the short term, but increases in the longer term. Copper demand grows due to increasing electrification, strong GDP growth, and accelerated electric vehicle (EV) penetration. These trends also support minerals projects. Despite global agreements reached in Glasgow and Dubai, emissions today continue to rise, making the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement unlikely to be achieved. Our operational emissions targets align with 1.5°C, and consequently, so do our decarbonisation investment decisions. However, we do not use Aspirational Leadership in our broader strategic or investment decision-making and so did not update all the assumptions Aspirational Leadership in 2024. Overall, based on the Aspirational Leadership scenario pricing outcomes, and with all other assumptions remaining consistent with those applied to our 2024 financial statements, we do not currently envisage a material adverse impact of the 1.5°C Paris-aligned sensitivity on asset carrying values, remaining useful life, or closure and rehabilitation provisions for the Group. It is possible that other factors may arise in the future, which are not known today, that may impact this assessment. Additional scenario parameters The next table shows some of the key data points that define our scenarios. The new central case “Conviction” scenario assumes climate policy ambition is almost equal to that in our previous scenario “Competitive Leadership”. This reflects our observation of higher carbon price expectations and more concrete national mitigation plans. These data points are derived from our internal macroeconomic and energy models and form the basis for all our long-term commodity analysis.

| Key scenario metrics                             | Base year | Conviction |               | Resilience |               |
|                                                  |      2023 |       2030 | 2023–2050CAGR |