Company: CFG-PE
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000759944-25-000013
Chunk: 275

Company: CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 6
Chunk 275
---
-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 2.0%. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this scenario would result in a quantitative lifetime loss estimate of approximately 1.2x our modeled period-end ACL, or an increase of approximately $400 million. This analysis relates only to the modeled credit loss estimate and not to the overall period-end ACL, which includes qualitative adjustments.

Because several quantitative and qualitative factors are considered in determining the ACL, this sensitivity analysis does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the ACL or even what the ACL would be under these economic circumstances. The sensitivity analysis is intended to provide insights into the impact of adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment and the corresponding impact to modeled loss estimates. The hypothetical determination does not incorporate the impact of management judgment or other qualitative factors that could be applied in the actual estimation of the ACL and does not imply any expectation of future deterioration in our loss rates.

It remains difficult to estimate how changes in economic forecasts might affect our ACL because such forecasts consider a wide variety of variables and inputs, and changes in the variables and inputs may not occur at the same time or in the same direction, and such changes may have differing impacts by product type. The variables and inputs may be idiosyncratically affected by risks to the economy, including changing monetary and fiscal policies, impacts from the recent stress on the banking industry, and their impact on inflationary trends. Changes in one or multiple of the key macroeconomic variables may have a material impact on our estimation of expected credit losses.

For additional information regarding the ACL, see Note 6.

Goodwill

The acquisition method of accounting requires that assets acquired and liabilities assumed in business combinations are recorded at fair value. Business combinations typically result in goodwill, which is subject to ongoing periodic impairment tests based on the fair values of the reporting units to which the goodwill has been attributed. At December 31, 2024, goodwill totaled $8.2 billion and is assigned to our reporting units as follows: $5.5 billion to Commercial Banking and $2.7 billion to Consumer Banking.

The process of evaluating the fair value of a reporting unit is subjective, involving management assumptions, estimates and forecasts, and the use of external or internal valuations. Valuation techniques include discounted cash flow and market approach analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the quantitative impairment test estimated the fair value of the reporting units using an equal weighting of an income approach (i.e., discounted cash flows method) and market-based approach (i.e.,