Company: BCS
Filing Date: 2025-04-30
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0001654954-25-004815
Chunk: 19

Company: BARCLAYS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-04-30
Form: 6-K
Chunk 19
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59.5 |   24.9 |  79.2 |  — |     8.7 |
| Retail other         |     1.1 |    7.2 |   8.1 |  17.0 |    8.1 |  42.6 |  — |     2.9 |
| Corporate loans      |     0.2 |    2.9 |   4.9 |   4.6 |    3.0 |  20.1 |  — |     0.9 |
| Total                |     0.3 |    4.2 |   5.9 |  15.0 |    4.7 |  32.4 |  — |     1.4 |

#### Measurement uncertainty
Scenarios used to calculate the Group’s ECL charge were refreshed in Q125 with the Baseline scenario reflecting the latest consensus macroeconomic forecasts available at the time of the scenario refresh. In the Baseline scenario, following a somewhat encouraging 2024, the growth in the UK economy is gradually slowing when compared to consensus at FY24, though restrictive monetary policy continues to loosen. UK and US GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 1.0% and 2.4%, respectively. Labour markets in major economies remain broadly resilient with unemployment rates relatively close to historic lows and are only expected to increase moderately. The UK unemployment rate peaks at 4.5% where it remains for most of the 5-year projection period. US unemployment peaks at 4.3%. The Bank of England cuts rates by 25bps three times in 2025 and once more in 2026. The Fed follows a slower pace of monetary policy loosening and finishes 2025 with rates at 4.3%. As lower rates feed into new mortgages, UK house prices stabilise and resume the upward trend from 2025. US house prices continue to grow at a decent pace.

The Downside 2 scenario has been broadly aligned to the Group’s 2024 Internal Stress Test. Under this scenario, the restrictive monetary policy seen over the last few years coupled with a loss of consumer and business confidence amid persistent inflation leads to a sharp contraction in economic activity. A sustained drop in consumer spending due to high household debt levels and affordability loss amid stagnant wages leads to a significant reduction in aggregate demand. The economic slowdown leads to rising unemployment rates as lay