Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-08-12
Form Type: DRS
Source: 0000950123-25-007520
Chunk: 436

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-08-12
Form: DRS
Chunk 436
---
 scenarios with weights of 60%, 10% and 30%, respectively, and the same macroeconomic variables as in 2024. In the case of TSB, the same probabilities as in 2023 are maintained, i.e. the probabilities of the baseline scenario and of the best-case scenario are reduced to 60% and 10%, respectively, assigning a 10% probability to a more adverse scenario characterised by interest rate hikes. To carry out the forecasts of these scenarios, five-year time A-169

As confidentially submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 11, 2025. This Amendment No. 4 has not been publicly filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and all information herein remains strictly confidential. horizons are used. The main variables considered are changes in GDP, the unemployment rate and house prices. Baseline scenario

| • |     | Uncertainty and Trump’s protectionist policies impact global economic growth. Trump’s arrival at the White                                                                                                                                     
 House compounds other structural factors that act as a drag, including the following: (i) the turbulent geopolitical environment and its consequences on international trade and value chains, (ii) structural weaknesses of economies such as 
 China, Germany and Italy, and (iii) the fiscal situation of some large, developed economies, especially the United States, France and Italy. The labour market shows a more even balance between supply and demand for jobs.                   |

| • |     | Growth in the Eurozone is negatively affected by the adoption of tariffs and the repatriation of earnings of US                                                                                                               
 companies as a result of tax cuts and greater geopolitical uncertainty. Spain is one of the countries least directly affected by Trump’s tariffs, although some sectors can be affected by the impact on international trade. |

| • |     | The volatile and erratic nature of inflation is exacerbated by new supply shocks (new tariffs, more volatile energy            
 prices, reconfiguration of production chains, convulsive geopolitics, climate shocks, etc.) and an expansionary fiscal policy. |

| • |     | The geopolitical environment becomes more complex with Trump’s arrival to the White House. Trump imposes tariffs                                                                                                                              
 on the United States’ trade partners, especially China, but these tariffs are only imposed partially, as he takes a pragmatic approach and seeks to negotiate measures that benefit the US economy. The resulting scenario is similar to what 
 happened during Trump’s first term in office. In any event, the climate of uncertainty and a trend towards greater protectionism in several regions mount. In