Company: CFG-PE
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000759944-25-000013
Chunk: 39

Company: CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI
Filing Date: 2025-02-13
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 3
Chunk 39
---
 as “off-balance sheet arrangements.” For more information on these types of activities, see Note 19.    

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

Our audited Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Report are prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to establish accounting policies and make estimates that affect amounts reported in our audited Consolidated Financial Statements. 

An accounting estimate requires assumptions and judgments about uncertain matters that could have a material effect on our audited Consolidated Financial Statements. Estimates are made using facts and circumstances known at a point in time. Changes in those facts and circumstances could produce results substantially different from those estimates. Our most significant accounting policies and estimates and their related application are discussed below. See Note 1 for further discussion of our significant accounting policies.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | 62

Allowance for Credit Losses

The ACL of $2.3 billion at December 31, 2024 remained stable compared to December 31, 2023.

As of December 31, 2024, the ACL economic forecast over a two-year reasonable and supportable period was consistent with December 31, 2023, with peak unemployment of approximately 5.1% and start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.4%. These forecasts reflect a mild recession over the two-year reasonable and supportable period.

Our determination of the ACL is sensitive to changes in forecasted macroeconomic conditions during the reasonable and supportable forecast period. To illustrate the sensitivity, we applied a more pessimistic scenario than that described above which reflects deeper real GDP contraction across our two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period with peak unemployment of approximately 6.0% and start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 2.0%. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this scenario would result in a quantitative lifetime loss estimate of approximately 1.2x our modeled period-end ACL, or an increase of approximately $400 million. This analysis relates only to the modeled credit loss estimate and not to the overall period-end ACL, which includes qualitative adjustments.

Because several quantitative and qualitative factors are considered in determining the ACL, this sensitivity analysis does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the ACL or even what the ACL would be under these economic circumstances. The sensitivity analysis is intended to provide insights into the impact of adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment and the corresponding impact to modeled loss estimates. The hypothetical determination does not incorporate the impact of management judgment