Company: AHL
Filing Date: 2025-04-29
Form Type: F-1/A
Source: 0001628280-25-020463
Chunk: 206

Company: ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD
Filing Date: 2025-04-29
Form: F-1/A
Chunk 206
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 represented in either the initial expected loss ratios or the historical development patterns.

We believe that there is potentially significant risk in estimating loss reserves for long-tail lines of business and for immature accident years that may not be adequately captured through traditional actuarial projection methodologies. As discussed above, these methodologies usually rely heavily on projections of prior year trends into the future. In selecting our best estimate of future liabilities, we consider both the results of actuarial point estimates of loss reserves in addition to the stochastic distribution of reserves. In determining the appropriate best estimate, we review (i) the result of bottom up analysis by accident year reflecting the impact of parameter uncertainty in actuarial calculations, and (ii) specific qualitative information on events that may have an effect on future claims development but which may not have been adequately reflected in actuarial best estimates, such as the potential for outstanding litigation or claims practices of cedants to have an adverse impact.

Effect if Actual Results Differ From Assumptions

Given the risks and uncertainties associated with the process for estimating reserves for losses and loss expenses, management has performed an evaluation of the potential variability in loss reserves and the impact this variability may have on reported results, financial condition and liquidity. Because of the inherent uncertainties discussed above, we have developed a reserving philosophy which attempts to incorporate prudent assumptions and estimates.

Management’s best estimate of the net reserve for losses and loss expenses as at December 31, 2024 was $3,950.6 million. The following tables show the effect on estimated net reserves for losses and loss expenses as at December 31, 2024 of a change in two of the most critical assumptions in establishing reserves: (i) loss emergence patterns, accelerated or decelerated by three and six months; and (ii) expected loss ratios varied by plus or minus five and ten percent. Accelerated loss emergence patterns indicates a higher development percentage of losses, therefore requiring lower IBNR than previously expected and hence resulting in a lower ultimate.

Management believes that these scenarios present a reasonable range of variability around the booked reserves using standard actuarial techniques. Loss reserves may vary beyond these scenarios in periods of heightened or reduced claim activity. The reserves resulting from the changes in the assumptions are not additive and should be considered separately. The following tables vary the assumptions employed therein independently. In addition, the tables below do not adjust any parameters other than the ones described above.

Net reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses as at December 31, 2024 — Sensitivity to loss emergence patterns