Company: HBCYF
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0001089113-25-000040
Chunk: 289

Company: HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
Filing Date: 2025-02-20
Form: 20-F
Chunk 289
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 -4Q25 |    1.2 | -1Q24 |
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max)3        |  10.1 | -2Q24 |   4.8 | -2Q24 |       4.1 | -3Q24 |            4.1 | -4Q24 |    8.6 | -2Q24 |  3.5 | -2Q24 |    7.0 | -4Q24 |
| Central bank policy rate (%, max)2         |   6.0 | -1Q24 |   6.1 | -1Q24 |       6.4 | -1Q24 |            4.1 | -3Q24 |    5.2 | -1Q24 |  6.1 | -1Q24 |   12.7 | -3Q24 |

1 Cumulative change to the lowest level of the series during the 20-quarter projection.

2 The highest projected unemployment or policy interest rate in the scenario. For mainland China, rate shown is the Loan Prime Rate. In prior periods, including the

4Q23 disclosure, the reference rate shown for mainland China was the Lending Rate.

3 The highest projected year-on-year percentage change in inflation in the scenario.

| 184 | HSBC Holdings plcAnnual Report on Form 20-F |

Risk review

The following graphs show the historical and forecasted GDP growth rate for the various economic scenarios in our four largest markets.

| Hong Kong |

| Mainland China |

| UK |

| US |

Scenario weighting Scenario weightings are calibrated to probabilities that are determined with reference to consensus forecast probability distributions. Management may then choose to vary weights if they assess that the calibration lags more recent events, or does not reflect their view of the distribution of economic and geopolitical risk. Management’s view of the scenarios and the probability distribution takes into consideration the relationship of the consensus scenario to both internal and external assessments of risk. In assessing the economic environment and the level of risk and uncertainty, management has considered both global and country- specific factors. In the fourth quarter of 2024, key considerations around uncertainty focused on: – US import tariffs and bilateral tariff escalations globally, and the impact on trade and manufacturing supply chains; – the extent and success of mainland China in deploying fiscal and monetary support to secure economic growth and underpin a recovery in the real estate market; – prospects for