Company: AHL
Filing Date: 2025-03-19
Form Type: 20-F
Source: 0001267395-25-000019
Chunk: 12

Company: ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD
Filing Date: 2025-03-19
Form: 20-F
Item: Item 3
Chunk 12
---
 in respect of incurred but not reported (“ IBNR”) reserves. This IBNR reserve is based almost entirely on estimates involving actuarial and statistical projections of our expectations of the ultimate loss and claims handling expenses. In addition to limited historical information for certain lines of business, we utilize actuarial models as well as historical insurance industry loss development patterns to establish loss reserves. Accordingly, actual claims and claim expenses paid may deviate, perhaps substantially, from our reserve estimates, which could materially adversely affect our financial results.

Only reserves applicable to losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred up to the reporting date may be set aside in our financial statements, with no allowance for future losses. Our estimates of reserves for losses and loss expenses also include assumptions about future payments for settlement of claims and claims-handling expenses, such as medical treatment, awards for pain and suffering and litigation costs. We write casualty business in certain jurisdictions and other territories where claims inflation has for many years run at higher rates than general inflation. To the extent economic or social inflation, such as through outsized court awards, particularly in the United States, causes these costs to increase above reserves established for these claims, we will be required to increase our loss reserves with a corresponding reduction in our net income in the period in which the deficiency is identified, which could materially adversely affect our financial results.

We may be adversely impacted by economic or social inflation.

Our underwriting results, loss reserves and investment income, like those of other (re)insurers, are susceptible to the effects of economic inflation because premiums are established before the ultimate amounts of losses and loss expenses are known. Although we consider the potential effects of economic inflation when setting premium rates, premiums may not properly contemplate the effects of inflation and thereby essentially result in underpricing the risks we insure and reinsure. Loss reserves include assumptions about future payments for settlement of claims and claims-handling expenses, such as the cost of replacing property, associated labor costs and litigation costs for the property business we write. To the extent inflation causes costs to increase above loss reserves established for claims, we will be required to increase loss reserves with a corresponding reduction in net income in the period in which the deficiency is identified, which may have a material adverse effect on our underwriting results or financial condition. Unanticipated higher inflation could also lead to higher interest rates, which would negatively impact the value of our fixed income securities and potentially other investments.

Since 2022, economic inflation reached and has remained unusually high in many parts of the world, and central banks in the United States and