Company: BBVXF
Filing Date: 2025-07-31
Form Type: 6-K
Source: 0000842180-25-000033
Chunk: 39

Company: BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
Filing Date: 2025-07-31
Form: 6-K
Chunk 39
---
 new supply shocks.

In Spain, economic activity remained dynamic in the first half of 2025, and the outlook ahead is relatively positive. Growth is expected to be supported by contained energy prices, a more expansionary policy stance in Europe, stronger growth potential in the services sector boosted by higher immigration and productivity gains, increased investment in construction, and rising defense spending. Nonetheless, BBVA Research expects the expansion to lose momentum, with GDP growth slowing from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, reflecting factors such as revisions to past growth data, global protectionism, high policy uncertainty, and currency appreciation. Annual inflation remains under control; it reached 2.3% in June 2025 and is expected to stay around 2.0% in the second half of 2025.

In Mexico, economic activity slowed in the first half of the year amid high uncertainty, as the impact of U.S. tariffs added to the effects of recent domestic reforms and the ongoing fiscal consolidation. In this context, BBVA Research has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to -0.4%. Even so, the economy is expected to eventually benefit from relatively moderate inflation (4.3% in June 2025 and likely near 3.8% in December 2025), lower interest rates (cut to 8.0% in June 2025 and possibly reaching 7.0% by December 2025) and structural gains from U.S. export tariffs potentially being lower than those applied to China and other competitors.

In Turkey, growth has recently moderated, and this, together with the restrictive stance of monetary policy, has helped bring inflation down further, to 35% in June 2025. BBVA Research maintains its 2025 growth forecast at 3.5% and expects inflation to keep easing, reaching around 30% by December 2025. Monetary conditions, tightened in the second quarter of 2025 to counter financial volatility stemming from recent sociopolitical turbulence, could ease again in the coming months, potentially allowing interest rates to fall from 46% in June 2025 to around 36% by December 2025.

<div align='center'>33</div>

In Argentina, the macroeconomic normalization process has continued in recent months. In addition to ongoing fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy, most foreign exchange controls were recently lifted, and a floating exchange rate regime with wide bands was introduced. While the new