Company: KEY-PI
Filing Date: 2025-02-21
Form Type: 10-K
Source: 0000091576-25-000038
Chunk: 277

Company: KEYCORP /NEW/
Filing Date: 2025-02-21
Form: 10-K
Item: Item 7
Chunk 277
---
 data or models, we use model overlays to make adjustments to model outputs to capture a particular risk or compensate for a known limitation. These variables and others may result in actual loan losses that differ from the originally estimated amounts.

This estimate produced by our models is forward-looking and requires management to use forecasts about future economic conditions to determine the expected credit loss over the remaining life of an instrument. Moody’s Consensus forecast is our source of macroeconomic projections, including the interest rate forecasts used in the credit models. We use a two year reasonable and supportable period across all products to forecast economic conditions. As the length of the life of a financial asset increases, these inputs may become impractical to estimate as reasonable and supportable. We believe the two year time horizon appropriately aligns with our business planning, available industry guidance, and reliability of various forecasting services. Following this two year period in which supportable forecasts can be generated, for all modeled loan portfolios, we revert expected credit losses to a level that is consistent with our historical information by reverting the macroeconomic variables (model inputs) to their long run average. We revert to historical loss rates for less complex estimation methods for smaller portfolios.

A four quarter reversion period is used where the macroeconomic variables linearly revert to their long run average following the two year reasonable and supportable period. We use a 20 year lookback period for determining long run historical average of the macroeconomic variables. We determined the 20 year lookback period is appropriate as it captures the previous two economic cycles as well as the impact from the pandemic.

The ALLL is sensitive to various macroeconomic drivers such as GDP and unemployment as well as portfolio attributes such as remaining term, outstanding balance, risk ratings, FICO, LTV, and delinquency status. Our ALLL models were designed to capture the correlation between economic and portfolio changes. As such, evaluating 

93

shifts in individual portfolio attributes and macroeconomic variables in isolation may not be indicative of past or future performance.

It is difficult to estimate how potential changes in any one factor or input might affect the overall ALLL because we consider a wide variety of factors and inputs in estimating the ALLL. Changes in the factors and inputs considered may not occur at the same rate and may not be consistent across all geographies or product types, and changes in factors and input may be directionally inconsistent, such that improvement in one factor may offset deterioration in others. However, to consider the impact of a hypothetical alternate economic forecast, we compare the modeled quantitative allowance