Dataset Viewer
Auto-converted to Parquet Duplicate
factor
stringclasses
7 values
metric
stringlengths
20
78
value
stringlengths
3
384
source
stringlengths
3
54
vintage
stringlengths
4
21
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Combined 2026 hyperscaler capex (Alphabet+Amazon+Meta+Microsoft)
≈$720-745B (GOOGL 195-205 + AMZN ≈220 + META 130-145 + MSFT 175 stated); capex increases reflect component inflation as well as capacity
company guidance
Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Incremental annual AI revenue (industry)
≈$20-30B (analyst estimate, register's weakest number)
analyst estimate
2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
AI accelerator refresh / obsolescence clock
≈2-3 years
industry
2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Data-centre lease commitments signed but not commenced (off balance sheet)
≈$662B; larger than the same firms' combined on-BS debt
Moody's
early-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
AI-related debt financing projected through 2030
≈$4.1T (within ≈$5.5T total AI capital spend); ≈15% of the corporate-bond universe; >$300B issued in 2026 YTD
JPMorgan
2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Fed policy rate (the rate-sensitivity lever)
held 3.50-3.75% for 5th consecutive meeting (9-3 vote); median end-2026 3.8% from Jun-2026 SEP
FOMC (Warsh)
29-Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Market-live tape and financing gradient INVERSION
Meta $589.85 (-8.4% since 21-Jul); Oracle $150.52 (+18.5% since 21-Jul, off BBB- trough ≈$121); Micron $971.66 (-22.6% from $1,255.50 peak, flat vs $970.82 21-Jul); financing gradient inverted on tape
Nasdaq historical
14-Aug-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Single-counterparty concentration (the structural sub-factor)
Oracle cut to BBB- on customer concentration; OpenAI ≈half of a ≈$638B backlog; circular financing connects exposures
S&P / market
9-Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Memory-spend crowd-out landing in earnings
IBM -25.21%, worst single day on record, ≈-$68.8B; clients pulled memory/hardware spend forward, deferred software/mainframe/consulting
company pre-announcement
14-Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Capex aggregate - stated as a RANGE not a point
component guides sum to ≈$720-745B (GOOGL $195-205B; AMZN ≈$220B; META $130-145B; MSFT $175B stated post asset-life extension); reported aggregates track $670-710B
company guidance / press
Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
① TRIGGER RECALIBRATION - 4 quarters without a cut; focus shifts to Nvidia gap
Q2 prints passed with zero guidance cuts (GOOGL $195-205B, AMZN ≈$220B, META $130-145B, MSFT $175B stated). Trigger failed to fire while financing strain appeared in FCF and debt. The informative signal shifts to 26 Aug 2026: hyperscaler capex vs Nvidia take-rate gap via custom silicon (TPU, Trainium) and AMD
company calls / analyst
Aug-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
PART OF THE RAISE IS PRICE, NOT CAPACITY (Amazon and Microsoft decompositions)
Amazon raised capex to ≈$220B explicitly citing memory chip inflation (Jassy: 'The higher cost of memory is pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion'); Microsoft attributes ≈$25B to component pricing; Meta cites memory pricing. A raise driven by factor 4 is cost pass-through, not added convi...
company guidance / calls
Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
DEFLATION - the $20-30B revenue figure is the register's weakest number
Microsoft AI business at a $37B annualised run rate (+123% YoY); Google Cloud +63% YoY to $20.02B in Q1-2026 (+82% Q2); Alphabet describes itself as compute constrained. Company-reported and defined differently from an industry increment, so not a replacement, but the capital-to-revenue gap is probably narrower than $7...
company disclosures
Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Cash generation under the cycle
Amazon TTM free cash flow ≈$1.2B, about -95% YoY, at a firm whose demand is not in question
company disclosure
Q1-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Circular financing (why concentration is not one balance sheet)
labs buy cloud from hyperscalers; hyperscalers and chip vendors hold lab equity; chip vendors invest in the deployers who buy their chips; hyperscalers prepay memory makers years ahead. Oracle is where it surfaced first (named counterparty, public rating), not the only place it sits
author's reading
21-Jul-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Credit conditions (the deflation)
IG OAS 80 bps (BAMLC0A0CM, up from 74 bps in Jun-2026); HY OAS 2.82% (BAMLH0A0HYM2, up from 2.75% in Jun-2026); stress remains issuer-specific
ICE BofA via FRED
14-Aug-2026
1 Capex vs revenue + credit
Single-campus property reinsurance capacity & TIV limits
multi-gigawatt campuses represent $15-40B+ in Total Insured Value; catastrophe and fire treaty capacity limits act as a structural ceiling on bank debt syndication
Lloyd's / reinsurance circulars
2026
2 Grid / power
PJM data-centre-attributed capacity cost (BRA 26/27 + 27/28)
≈$13.8B ($7.3B + $6.5B)
PJM market monitor (Monitoring Analytics)
2025-26
2 Grid / power
PJM capacity clearing price, 2026/27 vs 2024/25
$329.17/MW-day vs $28.92
PJM BRA
2025-26
2 Grid / power
PJM 2028/29 BRA - the framing shift (price capped, constraint shows as volume)
cleared at the $325/MW-day cap (≈2.5% below prior cap); 6,831 MW SHORT; only 525 MW new generation; collar held it (would have cleared $554.72 / ≈$30B vs $16.4B)
PJM BRA
14-Jul-2026
2 Grid / power
PJM post-auction regulatory expansion (large-load framework)
FERC filings 31 Jul ($20B procurement for generation serving datacentres) and 7 Aug (bring-your-own-power framework for >=50 MW loads post-2027); transforms grid bottleneck into active regulatory rationing
PJM / FERC filings
Aug-2026
2 Grid / power
Interconnection-queue dropout at first decision
28-31%
PJM Reliability Resource Initiative disclosures
Q1/Q2-2026
2 Grid / power
Skilled high-voltage electrical labour (the non-tradable constraint)
certified electricians (SOC 47-2111) and line installers (SOC 49-9051) require 4-5 yr apprenticeships; non-tradable human pipeline; wage growth outrunning general ECI; utility commissioning delayed on crew availability
US BLS / DOL RAPIDS
2026
2 Grid / power
Prime movers (the on-site generation queue)
heavy-duty gas turbine slots backlogged 3-5 yrs at GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, MHI; on-site bypass has its own manufacturing queue
GE Vernova / Siemens 10-Q
Jul/Aug-2026
2 Grid / power
Turbine hot-section superalloy castings (the prime-mover floor)
single-crystal turbine blades constrained at Howmet Aerospace and Precision Castparts; aviation and power compete for vacuum investment casting capacity
Howmet 10-Q / industry
2026
2 Grid / power
Large power transformer (LPT) lead time
128 weeks
Wood Mackenzie survey (corrob. DOE/trade press)
Q2-2025
2 Grid / power
Generator step-up (GSU) transformer lead time
144 weeks
Wood Mackenzie survey (corrob. DOE/trade press)
Q2-2025
2 Grid / power
Extra-high-voltage transformer lead time
36-48 months (to ≈60mo extreme)
Wood Mackenzie / US DOE
Q2-2025
2 Grid / power
Grid equipment beyond transformers (switchgear, breakers, HVDC)
HV gas-insulated switchgear, SF6-free circuit breakers, and HVDC cables run 3-5 yr lead times (Hitachi Energy, Prysmian, NKT)
OEM order books
2026
2 Grid / power
US data-centre electricity demand
176 TWh 2023 (≈4.4% of US elec) -> 325-580 TWh (6.7-12%) by 2028
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2024 (->2028)
2 Grid / power
Global data-centre electricity demand
≈416 TWh 2024 -> ≈946 TWh 2030 (Base); range 669 (Headwinds) to 1,264 (Lift-Off); PUE 1.41 -> ≈1.29
IEA 'Energy and AI' data annex
2025 (->2030/35)
2 Grid / power
Projection-range deflation (the caveat on every figure above)
2030 projections span ≈200 to ≈8,000 TWh across 100+ studies (≈40x); triangulated 2023 ≈300-380 TWh; widest figures from temporal extrapolation
IEA 4E EDNA (Kamiya & Coroama)
Mar-2025
2 Grid / power
AI rack power draw vs conventional
30-100+ kW vs 7-10 kW
industry
2026
2 Grid / power
Per-query energy - REVISED DOWN
≈0.24 Wh (Google median Gemini text) / ≈0.34 Wh (OpenAI), vs the widely-cited ≈2.9 Wh; heavy reasoning/multimodal ≈18-40 Wh; agentic use inverts the per-TASK story
Google / OpenAI
2025 (published 2026)
2 Grid / power
CORRECTION - Lake Powell minimum power pool (3,490 ft)
breach DEFERRED past 2026: release cut 7.48 -> 6.00 maf; July-2026 Probable Minimum trace projects 3,503.65 ft at 31-Dec-2026 (≈13.7 ft above 3,490 ft power pool). Reclamation traces carry vintage mismatch (Min Jul-2026, Max May-2026; unregulated inflows 36% of average)
US Bureau of Reclamation 24-Month Study (Jul-2026 Min)
Jul-2026
2 Grid / power
Water siting as a physical constraint (not an externality)
municipal moratoria and basin allocations remove candidate sites outright; USBR Colorado River shortage guidelines and ADWR groundwater rules cap arid-basin deployment
USBR / ADWR / municipal dockets
May/Aug-2026
2 Grid / power
Nuclear baseload & SMR fuel chokepoint (HALEU)
NRC reactor restart licensing takes 3-5 yrs; commercial HALEU (5-20% U-235) enrichment pilot-stage in US (Centrus), historical supply Russia-dominated
US NRC / Centrus Energy 10-Q
2026
2 Grid / power
On-site generation externality ('bring your own power')
Colossus 2, Memphis: 59 unpermitted gas turbines; federal air-permit loophole closed Jan-2026; substation lead times 3-5 yrs drive the bypass
press / EPA
2026
2 Grid / power
Energy-shock feedback into factor 1
Brent ≈$87 2026 average ($85 Q3, $78 Q4, $69 2027); recovery delayed to early 2027 on Hormuz transit constraints; energy cost moves from tail risk to 2026 baseline friction
EIA STEO
11-Aug-2026
2 Grid / power
Hyperscaler renting OUT OF SHORTAGE (against the glut read)
Alphabet 22 Jul 2026: 'still in a supply-constrained environment', demand outpacing 3 years of rising investment; will expand THIRD-PARTY cloud capacity in Q3 as a bridge while it builds its own = a hyperscaler renting because it cannot build fast enough
company call / CNBC
22-Jul-2026
3 Taiwan leading-edge
TSMC share of leading-edge logic
≈90%
industry / TSMC
2026
3 Taiwan leading-edge
Advanced packaging (CoWoS) concentration
effectively 100% Taiwan, no second source; leading edge Taiwan-bound through ≈2028-30
industry
2026
3 Taiwan leading-edge
Substrates (ABF) manufacturing concentration
Ajinomoto Build-up Film substrates for large CoWoS packages concentrated in Japan/Taiwan (Ibiden, Shinko, Unimicron); yield drops non-linearly with package size
Ibiden / Shinko filings
2026
3 Taiwan leading-edge
Specialty EUV photoresists and polymer precursors
>85% of advanced EUV photoresists, PAGs, and fluorinated precursors controlled by Japanese chemical firms (Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, JSR, Shin-Etsu) under METI export regime
Japan METI / company reports
2026
3 Taiwan leading-edge
High-purity quartz (HPQ) crucibles (Spruce Pine single-point-of-failure)
>80-90% of global semiconductor-grade quartz for silicon ingot pulling originates from Spruce Pine, North Carolina (Sibelco, The Quartz Corp)
USGS Mineral Summaries
2026
3 Taiwan leading-edge
Lloyd's JWC listed areas (the trigger's live reading)
Taiwan Strait NOT listed as of JWLA-032/033; that amendment extended the Gulf instead. Baseline hull war ≈0.15-0.25% of hull value; Gulf now ≈1%
Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee
3-Mar-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
DRAM/HBM shortage horizon
to ≈2028; Micron/SK Hynix sold out through 2027-2028; SK Hynix CEO sees tightness extending beyond 2028 to 2030
earnings / industry
Jul-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Memory incidence INVERSION (trade-press consensus estimates)
HBM takes 23% of DRAM wafers at a 3:1 conversion penalty; HBM ASPs rise moderately (Samsung +8%, SK Hynix +1%, Micron +22%), while traditional DRAM bit revenue surges (Samsung +116%, SK Hynix +78%, Micron +54%); the AI buyer does NOT pay the primary inflation, consumer/PC buyers do
TrendForce / DigiTimes / Counterpoint
Aug-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Automated Test Equipment (ATE) memory test scaling
HBM3e/HBM4 stacks require 4x to 6x the test duration of commodity DRAM across wafer probe and package test; Advantest and Teradyne test slot capacity is an inelastic throughput governor
Advantest / Teradyne 10-Q
2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Optical transceivers & InP CW laser diodes
scale-out 800G/1.6T networking requires Continuous-Wave InP laser diodes for silicon photonics, concentrated at Coherent, Lumentum, Broadcom
Coherent / Lumentum 10-Q
2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Strategic equity linkage (① and ④ coupling)
Anthropic Series H ($65B, $965B post-money, 28 May 2026) brought Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix as strategic partners alongside Amazon ($5B); chokepoints and frontier demand become one financing node
company filings / press
28-May-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Nanya (DRAM) revenue
+583% YoY (Q1, off trough; price-driven, >70% DRAM price spike, not volume)
Nanya Q1-2026 earnings
Q1-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Memory de-cyclicalisation (may cut against the boom-bust read)
supply contracts lengthened to 3-5 years with prepayments up to 30%
SK Hynix / press
Jul-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
SECOND packaging chokepoint (new in v3)
ASE Technology (largest OSAT) raised 2026 capex to $8.5B; critical node for co-packaged optics; distinct from TSMC CoWoS
company / press
2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
EUV lithography optics
ASML / Zeiss sole-source
industry
2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
China share of rare-earth refining/separation (historical framing)
China refines most REEs and dominates heavy-REE separation/magnets; earlier editions gave ≈91% refining / ≈60% mining (IEA / Rhodium Group)
IEA / Rhodium Group (historical)
2024-26
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
China share of magnet-grade REE mining
processing not mining is the structural bottleneck
IEA
2024-25
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Western magnet alternatives at full production
not expected before 2027 (MP Materials, USA Rare Earth)
industry
2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
China export-control ladder on materials
gallium/germanium 2023; US-specific Ga/Ge/antimony ban Dec-2024; Apr-2025 per-shipment licensing over 7 medium+heavy REEs and magnets
China MOFCOM
2023-25
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
EU heavy-REE price (Dy/Tb) vs China, at peak
≈6x
IEA (European Parliament corrob.)
2025
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Oct-2025 EXTRATERRITORIAL expansion + the dated trigger
any foreign product with >=0.1% Chinese-origin REE content would need a licence; suspended one year under truce; REVIEWED AROUND NOVEMBER 2026 (v3 states the month: the precise 27 Nov date carried in v2.x was not confirmed at source)
China MOFCOM
2025-26
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
Helium (Ras Laffan strike)
≈30% of global semiconductor-grade helium offline, spot +40-100%; restart tied to a ceasefire, LNG repairs up to 5 yrs. Deflation: TSMC reported no notable impact, SK Hynix diversified; hit storage (He-sealed HDDs sold out 2026) not leading-edge output
press / company statements
28-Feb-2026
4 Chokepoints (made + licensed)
SEVERITY SPLIT within factor 4 (do not flatten these)
helium = elastic BUFFER problem (fabs held inventory, TSMC no notable impact, surfaced in storage not leading-edge output) = months. Heavy-REE separation = structural capital-equipment + permitting bottleneck (separation chemistry, environmental consent, no Western magnet capacity before 2027) = multi-year. The license...
author's reading
21-Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Open-weight frontier datapoint
Kimi K3 (Moonshot), 2.8T MoE, $3/$15 per M tokens; near the top closed tier on one aggregate index while trailing the leading closed model overall; reported to beat Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol in blind front-end coding tests
Moonshot / Axios
16-Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
MEASUREMENT CAVEAT - least quantified of the six
the stated lens (yield on a deployed megawatt) is NOT directly observable: no firm reports revenue per MW of deployed capacity. Token price index is a stand-in, not a measure. Carried on a directional argument (token prices falling while capital cost per MW rises on components), not a measured ratio
author's reading
21-Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Frontier token price index
≈-20% from its May-2026 peak on substitution to cheaper models
Citadel (reported)
Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Industrial policy behind open weights
Xi framed open-weight models as a global public good (World AI Conference)
state media / press
17-Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
INVERSE-RISK ROW - the shortage and glut co-existence (Micron paradox)
Micron sold out through 2027 but stock closed $971.66 on 14-Aug (-22.6% from $1,255.50 peak); Samsung -33%; SK Hynix -15% broke ADR issue price; IDC projects 2026 smartphone shipments -14% (largest decline on record); Micron exits consumer memory. Shortage tail and glut tail co-exist in the same company
Nasdaq / IDC
14-Aug-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Inverse row - the FIRST PRICED market response (two-sided, not demand-side)
on the 1 Jul report Meta +≈9%; CoreWeave -≈14% in a session, Nebius -≈17%, both -≈35% over the following month. Meta had contracted ≈$48B from the two (≈$27B Nebius Mar-2026; $35.2B total CoreWeave after an Apr expansion), so a self-supplying Meta WITHDRAWS a buyer and ADDS a seller = reallocation of who sells compute,...
press
Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Inverse row - two constraints on the strong version
Meta's CoreWeave contract reportedly carries a NO-SUBLEASE provision barring resale of rented capacity; and several observers infer the opposite from the same fact, that surplus worth selling implies a market large enough to absorb it (growth, not glut)
press / analyst
Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Inverse row - why not base case
leasing is the ordinary cloud model; capital efficiency, burn mitigation, or demand STRENGTH (Anthropic, short of compute, reportedly proposed it) all fit the same facts; talks preliminary. Counter-indicators: memory sold out and contracted 3-5yr ahead with prepay; PJM cleared 6,831 MW short
author's reading
21-Jul-2026
5 Commoditisation from below
Inverse row - UPGRADE TRIGGER (none present at 15 Aug 2026)
multiple hyperscalers turn net seller; published idle-fleet utilisation confirms sustained low use; HBM contracts renegotiated DOWN; or capex guidance CUT outright
author's trigger
15-Aug-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
First export control applied to a MODEL, not a chip
BIS 'Is-Informed' letter (no rulemaking required): export licence needed for any foreign person to access Fable 5 / Mythos 5. Models went dark worldwide; trusted-partner carve-out 26 Jun; withdrawal 30 Jun; Fable restored 1 Jul
US Commerce / BIS
12-Jun-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
Contagion beyond one firm
OpenAI limited the release of GPT-5.6 at the administration's request within days
press
Jun-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
The substitution it generates
Macron (G7): a switch thrown 'from one day to the next' is a reason not to buy US models; spur to sovereign open-weight procurement across the EU, Gulf, Japan
press
Jun-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
Hardware two-stack, blocked at both ends
H200 China sales approved Dec-2025 under a 25% export tax (codified Jan-2026); trade stalled by Mar-2026, US security screening one end, Chinese import restrictions the other
press / policy
2025-26
6 Export-control two-stack
Direction of travel on Chinese models (reported, not yet a rule)
administration reviving restrictions post-Kimi K3: Entity List designations, federal procurement limits, security advisories, liability requirements; deliberately short of an outright ban. Contested internally (David Sacks). Deflation: open weights may make it hard to enforce
Axios (reported)
20-Jul-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
TRIGGER (new: every factor now carries a falsifier)
a second Is-Informed letter or equivalent against any frontier model; OR Entity List designation reaching a Chinese AI lab; OR a sovereign procurement mandate (EU/Gulf/Japan) requiring locally-hosted weights. Not tripped at 15 Aug 2026
author's trigger
15-Aug-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
Governance bloc split
WAICO (China-led, 29 founding states, governance) vs Pax Silica (US-led, launched Dec-2025 with ≈2 dozen, reported 35 by its 2nd summit, supply-chain). Kazakhstan in both
press
Jul-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
State as prospective owner (conceptual)
OpenAI proposed donating 5% of equity (≈$42.6B on an $852B Mar mark) to a US public wealth fund; precedent = 10% US stake in Intel after $8.9B CHIPS. Anthropic states it is not in talks
Financial Times
2-Jul-2026
6 Export-control two-stack
Standards as the real rate-limiter
EU AI Act GPAI enforcement from 2 Aug 2026 (to 3% of global turnover, or an order to restrict/withdraw a model); Annex III high-risk DECOUPLED from the calendar and gated on harmonised CEN-CENELEC standards (up to ≈16 months + 6-month transition)
EU Commission / EUR-Lex
2026
Amplifier (not a factor)
US average effective tariff rate
≈9.1% (highest since 1946); statutory basis in flux after the 20-Feb-2026 SCOTUS IEEPA ruling, duties replaced same-day under Section 122
US trade data / SCOTUS
2026
Amplifier (not a factor)
Cooling refrigerant & F-gas quotas (AIM Act / EU F-Gas III)
HFC phasedown quotas increase chiller replacement and chemical top-up expenditure without physically halting thermal management (pricing amplifier)
US EPA / EU Commission
2026
Amplifier (not a factor)
Ratepayer tariff riders and large-load structures
utility large-load demand charges and minimum take-or-pay structures reallocate grid infrastructure costs to hyperscalers (pricing amplifier)
state PUC dockets
2026
Amplifier (not a factor)
Datacentre land and dark-fibre routing premiums
real estate and metro dark-fibre price premiums in tier-1 hubs reallocate capital to secondary regions (pricing amplifier)
industry market reports
2026

The AI Constraint Relay: A Supply and Demand Risk Assessment

A supply-side empirical assessment of the AI compute build-out, tracking moving bottlenecks across power, labour, equipment, upstream materials, and cost incidence.

AI disclosure: the research is the author's; this text was drafted with AI assistance (Anthropic Opus 4.8-5.0 and Google Gemini 3.7) and reviewed by the author. The models, and the conflicts they create, are named in the Conflict of interest and scope section.

Files

  • : structured metrics with value, source, motive tier, and vintage.
  • : standard-library reproduction script tabulating and citing every figure from the CSV.
  • : Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.
Downloads last month
29