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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the United States and Ukraine officially announce a bilateral agreement for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between November 23, 2025, and February 1, 2026, the White House or the Office of the President of Ukraine issues a formal statement announcing that both nations have agreed on the terms of a ceasefire to end active hostilities with Russia. A 'result practical' leading to peace as me... | null | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 3fb5d708-3227-49c5-b638-b9d5ef48c187 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US military officials in Kyiv as Europe warns against reported Russia peace plan (published on 2025-11-20 by bbc.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Senior Pentagon officials visited Kyiv to \"discuss efforts to end the war,\" including t... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that US and Ukraine will officially announce a bilateral ceasefire agreement before Feb 1 2026.
We have context up to Nov 2025. There's intense diplomatic activity under Trump administration with a 28-point peace plan. The plan includes ceasefire but requir... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFSEJsJYS-sRs5D31OM2Xva6xStnara4TpdF-Q4x1XzWmhXbi4SyCZdNjtM5bpf6O_dRXiNNVw7gHUg9MNEsXzpbhIm_xbQ1TTD16oD12ZeKP1OW5MM2c5BqxOYy_qKIygTsy5SZTME6nMPNKPcHK099vAqsuvESPl7Y8BqtkctP_oKc7UMsSUkKTDNVMq2JtD1ydk4JXWeKv5f2ce45XezNBWsng==, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,204 | 311 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
By February 1, 2026, will the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially and publicly announce a total rejection of the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan discussed in Geneva in November 2025? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if President Zelenskyy or the Office of the President of Ukraine issues an official statement declaring that Ukraine formally refuses to proceed with or accept the specific 28-point U.S. proposal. Continuing to negotiate to 'revise' or 'improve' the plan does not constitute a rejection; t... | null | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | cdf46760-fff8-4eb7-8f93-147abd8ee524 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump pressures Ukraine to accept peace deal: Early analysis from Chatham House experts (published on 2025-11-22 by chathamhouse.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Trump pr... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The question: By Feb 1, 2026, will the Ukrainian government under President Zelensky officially and publicly announce a total rejection of the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan discussed in Geneva in Nov 2025?
We have context up to Nov 23, 2025. The plan is being pressured, Zelensky has n... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpGyz5b6Fj7Cmu289YHHjWO30miKvcVhGc2xUljEh5r82l5v1sLHCECEcz8AtSgFFAdeLqjVowRumlesNN_Xlal8TvLrp_P9Fy6YWsmCds1DBBw51gwpL2q_hwTJ9ARutibt9wfmUj-1nFn4S-ZICg0Z9pPtuxFakry6Lr_egxGyoi6XtaiaE1SFi9bZu4XJfkFRiL4kEO5EM6Jad6, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.38 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,235 | 378 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | -0.478036 |
Will the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally declare that it will not sign any peace agreement that includes the ceding of territory to Russia before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues an official statement (via government website, official social media, or major international news briefing) explicitly reaffirming after November 23, 2025, that Ukraine will refuse any peace deal requiring ... | null | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | ba017c70-fce5-4300-b782-80a5a996f6cc | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelenskyy Ready For 'Constructive, Honest, And Prompt' Work With Trump On Peace Plan (published on 2025-11-20 by rferl.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Zelenskyy said Ukraine has received a new US-drafted peace plan and is ready to wor... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Ukrainian government under Zelensky will formally declare that it will not sign any peace agreement that includes ceding of territory to Russia before March 1, 2026.
Current context is late November 2025. There is intense discussion about US-backed pea... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGfp2LkW3hh29qFUlSFZgYeyYJ2Yhh8htLf_wQgs7_KVvTfOixH7p9ecFPS0ttiTLlBmRhvYL7LJdbVy0XFYfCN8Na9dfAvHu1MdqwmT6QQ7uEir0WAuk8SCBFRJ2oSLGmmiThD9YIV7FHeP7zCUCQzVtWt0lk63RWwvm_ykS9ak0ezVFzPDjzo2leSRDpOHddn2CRH90zOxHFMutS6qcY=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.4 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,098 | 463 | null | -0.916291 | 0.36 | -0.916291 |
Will India formally transfer Sheikh Hasina to the custody of the government of Bangladesh before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM UTC on March 1, 2026, the government of India physically transfers former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to the official custody of Bangladeshi authorities, or if the Indian Ministry of External Affairs officially announces that the extradition process has been completed an... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 6ef7be69-9074-4798-b636-b8fc4f030fb0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Bangladesh demands extradition of convicted former PM Hasina; 'committed to best interests of people,' reacts India (published on 2025-11-17 by newindianexpress.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Bangladesh's Foreign Ministry has asked I... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast likelihood India will formally transfer Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh before March 1 2026. We have context: as of Nov 2025, Bangladesh sentenced her to death in absentia, demanding extradition. India has noted verdict, said will engage constructively, but no commitment. E... | null | null | null | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,252 | 271 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
"Will the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation publicly announce a formal agreement to (...TRUNCATED) | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before 11:59 PM UTC on December 25, 2025, the governments (...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | be82aa9b-87ab-4ead-b3d1-f55c8917de33 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump's 28-point Ukraine plan(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast the probability that Ukraine and Russia will publ(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGG-GwgnwsX1K0YOishZIuGgX97dGVjVDIna3XyJ3cFHsdvu59dcG9XPnBw9Y_GRsUf-A_l19Vx18S3K4lkOgTCTHuGctj937pGlz9tPttRwIYPSqiJ0O-a_8n6ohs7cuwHtcgBUTu2Rmv3nkeMpTFDnBcGF7xkImGIQ4h0_HkUYX-9aEqxPgy_wyNjZGFwE0mNVg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,133 | 298 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
"Will former FBI Director James Comey be re-indicted by a federal grand jury on any criminal charges(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to Yes if, after the dismissal of the initial case on November 24, 2025, a f(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-14T00:00:00 | c02a7118-b270-45f7-a724-886c0076cf8d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] In Stunning Admission, DOJ Sa(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that James Comey will be re-indicted (...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFp_TNxG6rU8cWPgfdH9PAY10HHBAy5SS_hnowM6hv0o--2L6FTxuRu8VwFbw1QiKTgYfsY8D8Cin_su-4vMVAYKNZF1b7WAB-gXZ2Rgx7ffJ3xT7z-FOp9YYIrH5IcrofLNZfz5VlzPA8olzVxZRMe9yT0, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH-B_Ek4-klrji-a7zPa_TLkUpI... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,124 | 322 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
"Will the U.S. Department of Justice file a formal notice of appeal against Judge Cameron McGowan Cu(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a notice of appeal with(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-19T00:00:00 | df24ba7a-2ce1-4e72-aaab-03a42ca2986e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Clinton-tapped judge could to(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will file a formal notice of(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFm9vrDH0vw29XGhKoWYL_F789rZ87uTrIrttkUYaAJjlh1yR3wCE9Nl2SFiDztEWv4OY9knhqp1rdC7CzH7c51crQPxbtcf1P5ZB3eNg8072jV32kxXVnm8daA-8xmCXLMnji-sByEqBmf57PNLbogX97eFhi12LNhJKHLTSDGzhjT8r-HRvykUOeTuQh3qXQlyQYmLWUb4f6htP9v1WVq, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.3 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,110 | 348 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 | -1.203973 |
"Will Sheikh Hasina be officially extradited from India to Bangladesh on or before February 22, 2026(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-22T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to 'Yes' if, by the end of February 22, 2026, the government of India or Ban(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-22T00:00:00 | 6c0f8e8f-d14e-4539-821d-43f63638b601 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Sheikh Hasina gets death pena(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Sheikh Hasina will be officially e(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH6fFc-pRXUWXJNv-m8lInHY09SLvXnMwcpjH7jlJ8S69Efl8CWVX0bq5nKZ0k-6lFAbk4ORLAmALS6JaWSFEpYqnR1rr2Ax2AuW2zTgcv0RKq9WCVNyMbToKF1NYHmsHVIUcSaO6xJcBRR7uxBCoPG02EX84k-Fp12zxbMJXg-3MXj0Yb7u9g6W3OYgJTriPn4-WCkfmhGpbhBZCplrlloYIigJawmSkNB5QLqkUVotYqZ5Se_lLPI3noQd... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,205 | 351 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
"Will a new indictment be filed by the United States Department of Justice against James Comey in an(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if a federal grand jury returns a new indictment, or if the Departme(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 5d3946fb-aca3-4600-b802-c138ab11fa42 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Comey Attacks Perjury and Obs(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that a new indictment will be filed b(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHfuFO6jd_iXb_V_z30tP3hX4T815j8hP2glzkapOLBzjOIf4eZLWodO-LSTLE8bvH2wonjsY-wQO7XfFaItnE9FNd3sdBmYJS5fKUkpoelUftlx2t5gpVOJ_E8mNzoPtAKsHU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH5bCckmZLZurRYY1PlM2y48eZjvns86IpCj_-Hr8Lw8fRF... | true | 2 | null | 0.15 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,080 | 402 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | -0.162519 |
"Will the Trump administration and the 'European Troika' (Germany, France, and the UK) issue a joint(...TRUNCATED) | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2025, a single joint(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 9d8b94b5-e89f-456e-beac-27c9cdacb502 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Full text of European counter(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that the Trump administration and the(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHvrJNvgQR4s9yc_LvW4jnsUnwPdHjn5WkR9BRRRg0CLCJ29ZAA7JQhBqtNdFcbUWPgTBdmnJGI0b-mitl3k-11pBylBZ8Dm8DFXe55gvRbeCgSLVe8M4OFSdGGr7ezM9ynqJkBqTmB3f4CJ8pCa-SbhCwfCUM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHg0hW3BtbhbRlBfK7L4m2s... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,166 | 508 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
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