FinanceRateCalc/fha-denial-rates-by-state

FHA Denial Rates by State — with loan-size splits (2025)

All 50 states plus DC and PR, from the complete 2025 CFPB HMDA record: FHA denial rates, and the split that almost nobody publishes — small loans versus large loans, state by state.

The finding this dataset carries

Small FHA applications (under $150K) are denied more often than large ones ($250K+) in every state measured. The gap is widest where it is least expected:

State	Small-loan denial	Large-loan denial	Penalty
Idaho	see data	see data	3.19×
New Hampshire	see data	see data	2.74×
Utah	see data	see data	2.72×

In the ten states requiring the highest incomes to buy, 42.1% of small FHA applications were denied, versus 35.1% in the ten cheapest — the opposite of the common assumption. Story: https://financeratecalc.com/salary-vs-denial-risk-by-state.html

Files

• fha_denial_rates_by_state_2025.csv — one row per state, with small_loan_penalty_x
• state_fha_2025.json — same data plus method string

Methodology

FHA = loan_type 2. Decisioned = action_taken {1,2,3}; denial = action 3. Small <$150K, large ≥$250K; a cell requires at least 100 applications. Full rules: https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html

Denial rates partly reflect applicant mix. Historical observations, not predictions and not evidence of wrongdoing.

Citation

Primary data: CFPB HMDA 2025 Snapshot. Derived rates: Yetiş, Z. (2026), FHA Denial Rates by State, FinanceRateCalc. https://financeratecalc.com — companion paper: SSRN 7156938.

CC BY 4.0 · Not a lender · No ads · A denial is a data point, not a verdict on the applicant.