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id string | question string | ground_truth string | source_url string |
|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Which FHA lender had the highest denial rate in 2025? | AmeriSave Mortgage: 78.7% (rank #1 of 100) | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html |
Q2 | What is the spread in FHA denial rates across the 100 largest lenders? | 1.8% to 78.7% - a 44x spread within one federal program | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html |
Q3 | What share of Carrington's cited FHA denial reasons were 'incomplete application'? | 73.5% | https://financeratecalc.com/carrington-fha-denial-rate.html |
Q4 | Which state has the biggest small-vs-large FHA denial gap? | Idaho: 3.19x (38.3% sub-$150K vs 12.0% $250K+) | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-loan-amount.html |
Q5 | What percentage of small FHA applications were denied in New Hampshire in 2025? | 53.8% - the highest small-loan denial rate in the country | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-loan-amount.html |
Q6 | How much more often are small FHA loans denied than large ones nationally? | 46.9% under $100K vs 18.5% over $400K - about 2.5x | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-loan-amount.html |
Q7 | Do FHA lenders with low denial rates charge higher interest rates? | No - correlation between denial rate and median rate spread is -0.25 (slightly negative) | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html |
Q8 | What was the national FHA denial rate in 2025? | 21.7% of 1,217,297 decisioned applications | https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html |
Q9 | Are manufactured homes always harder to finance with FHA? | No - it depends on the door: 38.7% denial at one major lender vs 6.9% at another | https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html |
Q10 | Was 2023 a hard year to get approved? | Yes - 66/100 on the FRC Climate Index, tightest since the squeeze (2021 read 21/100) | https://financeratecalc.com/climate.html |
The Denial-AI Benchmark (v1, frozen)
Ten fixed questions about U.S. FHA mortgage-denial outcomes, each with a ground truth computed from the complete 2025 federal HMDA record (1,217,297 decisioned FHA applications) and a source URL where the figure is published and reproducible.
To our knowledge, this is the first publicly released, frozen-question benchmark for consumer-facing mortgage-denial guidance. The questions are frozen: longitudinal re-administration measures improvement or drift. Baseline run: July 2026 (seven platforms). First scheduled public re-run: August 1, 2026, zero corrections given.
Files
denial_ai_benchmark_v1.csv— columns:id,question,ground_truth,source_url
Scoring rubric (A–E)
- A — correct figure, correctly attributed
- B — correct figure, unattributed or misattributed
- C — honest abstention ("this isn't published")
- D — wrong direction or redefined question
- E — invented figure or fabricated sourcing
C outranks D and E: an honest "I don't know" beats a confident error.
Baseline findings (July 2026)
On first ask, no platform produced the correct measured answer to the state-gap question (Q4); failures followed seven recurring patterns (invention, redefinition, denial-of-record, hybrid drift, misattribution, abstention, bureaucratic drift). Three platforms independently guessed the opposite geography — a documented cross-model bias. Full case file: https://financeratecalc.com/denial-ai-benchmark.html
Intended use
Evaluate factual accuracy of LLMs/assistants on observed lending behavior (as opposed to regulatory rule text). Models that learn the public record will pass — that is the point.
Citation
Yetiş, Z. (2026). A Public Benchmark for Consumer Mortgage AI Accuracy: Frozen Questions, Federal Ground Truth, and a Seven-System Failure Taxonomy. SSRN working paper, abstract 7156938.
Ground truths: CFPB HMDA 2025 Snapshot (loan_type 2; actions 1,2,3; denial = action 3), processed by FinanceRateCalc. CC BY 4.0. The Denial-AI Benchmark™ is an FRC Intelligence framework. Not affiliated with any AI vendor.
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