New validated case: Germany 2025
#1
by AFOS-Analytics1 - opened
Prediction-market odds vs polls, cross-checked against the real result.
The AfD finished 2nd in the popular vote, yet the market never gave it more than ~3% to govern. CDU/CSU won and formed the government.
Part of an open 5-country library (Apache 2.0 + CC BY 4.0): Peru, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Canada. Hub:
https://afos-analytics.com/global — feedback welcome.