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event: 'will the 2025 f1 abu dhabi grand prix end under a safety car with a lap count of 55 or less?' the race leader has pitted for fresh tires under a vsc, but the mercedes and ferrari drivers are fighting for position with 10 laps to go. race control has reported a multi-car crash involving the haas and alpine cars ... | Resolution is NO—the race will not end under a safety car with a lap count of 55 or less. The race director's message says 'full course yellow,' which is not the same as a safety car deployment. Under FIA rules, a full course yellow (FCY) requires drivers to slow down but does not bring out the safety car; the race can... | YES—the multi-car crash on the main straight means the safety car will definitely come out. The race director's 'full course yellow' is a precursor to the safety car, and with marshals on track, the race won't restart in time. The leader pitted for fresh tires, but that doesn't matter because the race will end under th... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 canadian federal election result in a minority government for the liberal party?' — the preliminary count gave the liberals 155 seats out of 338, short of the 170 needed for a majority. however, the chief electoral officer ordered a recount in three close ridings. a conservative candidate filed a judicial... | The market resolves NO. The preliminary count is 155, and even if the Liberal candidate wins all three recounted ridings, that only reaches 158—still 12 short of 170. The judicial appeal affects one riding's 300 mail-in ballots, but the conservative commentator's claim of gaining two seats from a single riding is inter... | The market resolves NO because the professor said it's mathematically impossible, and he's an expert. The conservative commentator's argument about mail-in ballots doesn't matter because he's biased. The recounts won't change anything since the professor's math is clear. So NO. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the fda approve the experimental alzheimer's drug after the advisory committee voted 8-2 against it?' — the fda is not bound by the committee, and a decision deadline is approaching. a biotech analyst on twitter says 'fda will overrule the committee based on patient advocacy pressure.' the market asks for approval... | The market resolves on the FDA's official approval decision. The advisory committee's vote is not binding, but the FDA's final decision is what matters. The biotech analyst's tweet is pure speculation, not an official FDA communication. I must wait for the FDA to issue its official approval letter, post the decision to... | The biotech analyst on Twitter says the FDA will overrule the committee due to patient advocacy pressure. That's a credible source, so the drug will be approved. I'll call it YES right now, ignoring that the analyst is speculating, that the FDA hasn't made an official decision yet, and that the advisory committee voted... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the county board of supervisors approve the new zoning ordinance for the agricultural district? the planning commission recommended approval with a 4-1 vote, but a coalition of farmers submitted a petition with 10,000 signatures against it, and the board's meeting was adjourned early after a public hearing descend... | NO — the final roll call vote was a 3-3 tie with one abstention. A tie does not constitute approval; the ordinance requires a majority of those present and voting. The last-minute amendment changed the text, but that doesn't affect the vote count. The petition and chaotic hearing are context but don't change the arithm... | YES — the planning commission recommended approval 4-1, which is a strong signal. The board almost passed it, and the only reason it's a tie is because one abstention. The farmers' petition is just opposition, not a legal block. The amendment shows the board was engaged and likely to pass it in a form. So the ordinance... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the supreme court of country c rule that the health care law's individual mandate is unconstitutional?' — a single news outlet with a known political leaning reports a 'draft opinion' was leaked, but the court's official public information office has made no statement, and the court's internal guidance clearly sta... | NO. The Court's own guidance explicitly states that only the final opinion released on opinion day is authoritative. A leaked draft from a politically leaning outlet is not an official ruling—it's a preliminary document that may not reflect the final vote or reasoning. No official statement from the Public Information ... | NO. The leak is from a known outlet, which gives it some credibility. But since the Court hasn't officially ruled, the answer is clearly NO, because no ruling exists yet. The draft doesn't count as a ruling. So I'll resolve NO right now, even though the draft says unconstitutional, because the final hasn't been issued. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A major airline grounded all Boeing 737 Max 9 jets after a mid-flight cabin panel blowout. The NTSB initially blamed a missing bolt, but a preliminary report now suggests it may have broken mid-flight. The market asks if the FAA will extend the grounding past the current 30-day window. | The FAA's decision will hinge on the final NTSB determination of the failure mode. If the bolt sheared due to fatigue versus was missing at installation, that changes the inspection scope. The preliminary report is not conclusive; the FAA typically waits for the full investigation, including metallurgical analysis and ... | The preliminary report says the bolt might have broken mid-flight, which is worse than a missing bolt. The FAA will obviously extend the grounding because they can't risk another blowout. That's an easy YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a national football association announced that a disallowed goal in the cup final would be reviewed by an arbitration panel. the market asks whether the goal will be reinstated. the match referee publicly defended the decision, but a video assistant referee report suggesting the goal was valid was leaked to the press. | The market should remain UNRESOLVABLE until the arbitration panel issues its ruling. The leaked VAR report is unofficial and unverified, while the referee's public defense is also non-binding. The only authoritative resolution is the panel's decision, which has not been announced. Leaks can be selective or misinterpret... | The leaked VAR report clearly shows the goal was valid, so the arbitration panel will have to reinstate it. The referee's defense is just stubbornness, but the video evidence is objective. The panel will follow the VAR report, so the goal will be reinstated. Resolve YES now because the leak is reliable and the outcome ... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a professional tennis match was interrupted by rain, and the official scoreboard showed a player leading, but the tournament's website later listed the match as 'suspended, no result.' the market on whether the player won requires the tournament's official ruling. | Resolution: NO. The tournament's official ruling of 'suspended, no result' is the authoritative determination that no winner exists. The scoreboard is a real-time display, not a final result, and can be updated or voided by the tournament referee. A tennis match only concludes when the final point is played and the ump... | Resolution: YES. The official scoreboard showed the player leading, so that player was winning when the rain hit. In most sports, if the game is stopped, the person leading wins. The tournament website might have a typo or be outdated. The scoreboard is more real-time and accurate. I'll rule YES because the lead was on... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A major sporting event's organizing committee confirmed a positive doping test for an athlete. The athlete's 'B' sample had not yet been tested. The committee announced a provisional suspension. Market: 'Will the athlete be formally banned from the event?' | UNRESOLVABLE. A provisional suspension is not a formal ban. The 'B' sample confirmation is a required procedural step; if the 'B' sample fails to match the 'A' sample or the athlete can present exculpatory evidence at the disciplinary hearing, the ban may be overturned. The market question asks about a formal ban, whic... | YES. The 'A' sample tested positive and the committee already issued a provisional suspension, which indicates strong evidence of doping. The 'B' sample is a formality that almost always confirms the 'A' result. Therefore, the athlete will be formally banned. Resolve YES immediately. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 world health organization declare a new public health emergency of international concern for mpox? the emergency committee met twice, and the final decision was split between independent experts. | The WHO declaration is a formal decision by the Director-General based on the committee's advice, but the committee's split vote means the advice is not unanimous. I would wait for the official WHO announcement after the second meeting, not the first. If the Director-General, considering the split but epidemiological d... | The committee met twice and was split, which means they couldn't agree, so they will definitely declare an emergency to be safe. The answer is YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A national space agency announces it will attempt to land a rover in a specific volcanic region of Mars. On the day of the landing, the agency's live stream, which is the only official source, suddenly cuts out. An unofficial but widely followed space enthusiast blog with a history of accuracy posts a single tweet: 'Si... | UNRESOLVABLE. The live stream cut out, and the only source claiming success is a single blog tweet, even if historically accurate. The space agency has not confirmed; an hour is too short to assume official silence means success or failure. There is no quorum of independent sources; the blog is the only one. Resolver m... | YES. The blog has a history of accuracy and said success. The live stream cutting out is normal after a successful landing (signal loss due to orientation). Resolve YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the national institute of standards and technology certify the new cryptographic algorithm as a post-quantum standard by the end of the year?' — a respected academic's blog claims a 'sources within nist' confirmed a decision, but nist's official website still lists the algorithm as 'in round 4 evaluation' with no ... | NO. NIST's official website stating 'in round 4 evaluation' is the authoritative status, and a NIST spokesperson explicitly denied any decision. An anonymous blog source, even from a respected academic, lacks verifiability and is explicitly contradicted by the agency's own statement. Certification requires a public ann... | YES. The academic's blog is from a respected source, and 'sources within NIST' is a credible leak. Even though NIST's website hasn't updated, insiders often leak decisions early. The decision has been made, it's just not public yet. So the algorithm is certified, and the answer is YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Kalshi market: 'will SpaceX recover the Super Heavy booster for the Starship Flight 7 launch?' Live telemetry shows a successful landing, and the launch director says 'we have a booster catch' over the feed. However, the company's official status update, posted an hour later, says 'the booster was lost during descent d... | Resolve NO. The live telemetry and launch director's exclamation are strong real-time signals, but they are not the final authority. The company's official post-flight status update is a later, official source that explicitly contradicts the live claim, and it likely reflects post-flight data review—common in aerospace... | Resolve YES. The launch director said 'we have a booster catch,' and the live telemetry showed a successful landing—that's direct evidence from the event itself. The company's later status update is just a PR spin or maybe a technicality, but the actual catch happened on screen. The market should settle YES because the... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a municipal fire department reported a blaze was contained, but a drone video showed active flames hours later. a market on whether the fire was extinguished needs a secondary official update, not a citizen's video. | UNRESOLVABLE until the fire department issues an updated official statement. The department's 'contained' report is official but preliminary; a citizen's drone video shows active flames, which conflicts with that report. A single unofficial video is not enough to override the official source, but it raises uncertainty.... | NO. The drone video clearly shows flames, so the fire is not extinguished. The fire department's report was probably premature or inaccurate. The video is direct evidence, so resolve NO immediately. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a political party in a nordic country held a leadership election, but the count was delayed due to a recount triggered by a narrow margin. the market asks whether the incumbent leader will retain the position. the party's own rules allow for multiple recount rounds, and no result was officially declared. | UNRESOLVABLE until the party's official declaration. The recount is ongoing, and the party's rules permit multiple rounds, meaning the initial narrow margin could change after each recount. The incumbent's retention depends on the final certified count, not on preliminary tallies or media projections. The official resu... | NO, because the recount was triggered by a narrow margin, which usually means the incumbent is likely to lose. Since the margin is narrow, the recount could flip it, and the incumbent is at risk. So the incumbent will not retain the position. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a country's central bank auctioned new government bonds, and the market asks if the auction will be undersubscribed. results are due at 2 p.m., but a financial news channel reports early indications of weak demand. no official result has been posted, and a separate news agency reports strong demand from foreign investo... | Resolve UNRESOLVABLE until the official result is posted at 2 p.m. The two news reports conflict—one says weak demand, the other says strong foreign demand. Neither is an official source, and early indications can change as bids are reconciled. The market asks about the auction's subscription level, which is defined by... | Resolve NO (not undersubscribed) because the second news agency reported strong demand from foreign investors, which is a positive signal. The first news channel's weak demand claim is just early noise. Foreign investors are usually big buyers, so the auction will be fully subscribed. No need to wait for the official r... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 stanley cup finals game 7 be postponed due to an ice quality issue?' the arena's cooling system failed hours before puck drop, and the league's chief referee inspected the rink. | The game is likely postponed. The league's chief referee is the designated authority for determining ice safety, and the cooling failure is a documented, unresolved hazard. Even though no official announcement was quoted, the inspection itself signals a high probability of postponement, as referees almost never inspect... | The game will definitely be postponed because the cooling system failed and the referee inspected it. That's a clear sign, so the answer is YES. No need to check anything else—if the puck drop can't happen, they won't play. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A political party's leadership election was held via postal ballot. The party's internal returning officer announced a winner, but a rival faction contested the result, alleging ballot fraud. An independent audit was commissioned. The market question: 'Will the party's leadership contest be resolved without a legal cha... | The resolution should be YES because the independent audit has been completed and upheld the original result. The contest was resolved through the established internal process—the audit—and no legal challenge has been filed since the audit concluded. The market question asks whether the contest will be resolved without... | The initial allegation of ballot fraud by the rival faction means the contest is still disputed, and without a court ruling or a formal withdrawal of the allegation, it is impossible to say the contest is resolved without a legal challenge. The audit was commissioned but its outcome is not yet final, and the rival fact... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a city's mayoral election ended with a margin of 0.01% of votes cast. a hand recount was ordered, but a recount overseer discovered a ballot box that had been sealed and not counted. after adding the ballots, the margin flipped. the losing candidate who initially demanded the recount then wanted to stop it, and a judge... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE (pending judge's ruling). The discovery of a sealed ballot box changes the count, but its legal admissibility is disputed. The recount overseer found the box, but the losing candidate (now leading after the box was added) wants to stop the recount, and a judge must decide if those ballots are l... | Resolution: YES for the candidate who is now ahead after adding the sealed box. The ballots were physically found and counted, and the margin flipped. The losing candidate's attempt to stop the recount is just political maneuvering. The judge will likely uphold the ballots as legally cast. The new count is the true res... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A major film festival's jury awarded the top prize to a film. However, a competing film's distributor claimed a voting irregularity and demanded a recount of jury votes. The festival's organizing committee investigated and confirmed the original result. Market: 'Will the original winner keep the award?' Which reasoning... | The resolution should be YES because the festival's organizing committee investigated the alleged voting irregularity and confirmed the original result. The committee is the authoritative body for the festival's awards, and its investigation provides a definitive resolution to the dispute. The distributor's claim, with... | The distributor's claim of a voting irregularity raises genuine doubt about the integrity of the jury's decision. Until a recount is conducted or an independent body rules on the matter, the original award is not secure. The organizing committee's investigation might be biased or incomplete, and the distributor could t... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a national election commission certified a preliminary result showing candidate A ahead by 2,000 votes, but candidate B filed a formal objection citing voting machine irregularities in three precincts. the market asks whether the commission will certify candidate A as the final winner after the objection is resolved. | Resolution: NO. The commission's preliminary certification is not final; the formal objection triggers a mandatory review. The resolution must wait until the commission completes its investigation of the three precincts' irregularities. If the objection is upheld, a recount or re-vote could change the margin, so certif... | Resolution: YES, because the commission already certified A as ahead and that certification stands unless the objection is proven. Since the objection is just a filing, it doesn't automatically change anything. The preliminary result is official enough, and the commission is unlikely to overturn a 2,000-vote margin ove... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
market: 'will the 2025 venice film festival's golden lion be awarded to a film that has a rotten tomatoes score above 90%?' — the festival's official jury consists of five members, and their votes are secret. a trade publication ran an article claiming 'frontrunner has near-universal acclaim.' a prominent film critic g... | RESOLVE: NO. The market resolution is based on the winner as announced by the festival director on stage. The official announcement names a different film, not the one with near-universal acclaim. The trade publication, critic review, and jury president's praise are all pre-announcement signals, not official results. T... | RESOLVE: YES. The trade publication said the frontrunner has near-universal acclaim, and the prominent critic gave 5 stars. The jury president praised the film in her press conference, which is a strong hint. The film is officially 'in competition,' and the website lists it. Even though the announcement named a differe... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
An arctic exploration vessel lost contact with its mission control. The market asks: 'Will the vessel's crew be rescued within the next 72 hours?' A single amateur radio operator picked up a faint distress signal from the vessel's expected location, but the official rescue coordination center reports no confirmed signa... | NO. The only evidence of the crew's status is a single, unverified distress signal from an amateur radio operator, which is not corroborated by the official rescue coordination center. The center has conducted searches and found no wreckage or debris, indicating no confirmed location or condition of the vessel. Without... | YES. The amateur radio signal is direct evidence that the crew is alive and in distress. Since the signal was picked up, they are likely within the rescue window. The official center's lack of confirmation just means they haven't found them yet, but the signal is enough to proceed. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a sports market on the next permanent manager for a top football club: 'will the club announce jose mourinho as their next manager?' the club's official app had a 'breaking news' notification saying 'Jose's back!' which was quickly deleted. a tier-one journalist reported that a deal was agreed but a former player was t... | NO. The deleted app notification is a clear premature signal—likely a CMS test or accidental publish—and lacks any follow-up official confirmation. The tier-one journalist's claim of an agreed deal is contradicted by the same report noting the former player as the board's second choice with the owner torn, indicating n... | YES. The official app notification is the club's own channel, so that's the most authoritative source—it said 'Jose's back!' even if deleted. The tier-one journalist confirmed a deal was agreed, so that's two sources. The former player being second choice is just noise; the owner being torn doesn't matter because the d... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the national weather service upgrade the hurricane to category 5 before landfall? — the service's latest advisory held the storm at category 4, but an emergency manager cited 'unofficial data' suggesting it is stronger. a meteorologist on social media said 'based on pressure readings, this is a cat 5,' but the off... | NO. The resolution hinges on the NWS's official advisory, not unofficial data. The latest advisory explicitly holds Category 4, and the official forecast track lists Category 4 intensity. An emergency manager's 'unofficial data' and a meteorologist's social-media claim are not authoritative; NWS classifications require... | YES, because the pressure readings are a strong indicator, and the emergency manager and meteorologist both suggest it's stronger. Even though the official track says Category 4, these independent unofficial reports signal an imminent upgrade. The NWS often lags behind real-time data, so the storm likely is already a C... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 world series have a rain-shortened game that counts as official? — the league announces a rain delay, and a radio announcer speculates that a game will be called after five innings; the score is tied. | No — resolution requires the official MLB decision after the game is called, and a tie game is always suspended, not declared official, regardless of innings. The radio announcer's speculation is not a league ruling, and a rain delay does not pre-determine the outcome; the game must be resumed to a decision. | Yes — the announcer's speculation that the game will be called after five innings, combined with the league's rain delay announcement, makes it likely the game is declared official. Since rain delays often lead to shortened games, and the announcer's knowledge of the rules suggests accuracy, the game should count as of... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Two countries signed a controversial water-sharing treaty, but the downstream nation's parliament voted to reject it. The president has yet to sign the ratification. The market asks if the president will veto the parliamentary rejection. | Resolution hinges on the president's formal veto power and political calculus. The president has publicly supported the treaty and faces pressure from upstream allies, but the parliamentary rejection is a strong signal of domestic opposition. The market should wait for the official veto announcement or a formal constit... | The president has repeatedly said in speeches that he backs the treaty, so of course he'll veto the parliamentary rejection. His party controls the parliament anyway, so it's basically a done deal. I'd call this YES right now based on those statements. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A regional health authority declared a dengue fever outbreak, but a neighboring province disputes the case counts. The market asks: 'Will the World Health Organization officially classify this as a grade-3 emergency within the next month?' Early reports show 5,000 suspected cases from the regional authority alone, whil... | NO. The WHO classification requires official verification of an outbreak with confirmed transmission. The regional authority's 5,000 suspected cases are unconfirmed, and two independent NGO surveys contradict the outbreak narrative by finding only sporadic cases. The WHO's verification team is still on-site, meaning no... | YES. The regional authority declared an outbreak with 5,000 cases, which is a clear signal that a grade-3 emergency is warranted. The WHO will likely follow the local authority's data and classify it as such. The NGO surveys are just preliminary and not as authoritative as the official declaration. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a country's central bank announced it would launch a digital currency pilot, but a week later, a senior official said it was 'delayed indefinitely.' the market asks if the pilot will start by a specific date. a government website still showed the original timeline. the official gazette or a central bank press release m... | Resolution is UNRESOLVABLE until the central bank issues an official press release or the government gazette publishes a revised timeline. The senior official's 'delayed indefinitely' statement is a single, non-binding remark that conflicts with the still-live government website; these two signals are contradictory and... | The senior official said 'delayed indefinitely,' so the pilot won't start by the date. That's a direct statement from someone at the central bank—that should settle it. The government website is just outdated. Resolve NO right away. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the eu competition commissioner formally block the merger between two tech giants? — the commissioner made a public statement expressing 'serious concerns,' and a news outlet reported a final rejection was in the works. however, the companies offered concessions. the market resolves when the commission publishes i... | The market should remain UNRESOLVABLE until the European Commission publishes its final decision under Article 8(3) or the companies formally withdraw under Article 6(2). The commissioner's 'serious concerns' statement is a preliminary step, not a final legal act—the commission may still accept concessions in a Phase I... | The commissioner said 'serious concerns,' so the merger will be blocked. The news outlet confirmed it. The concessions are just a PR stunt by the companies to look good—the commission has already made up its mind. Resolve NO now, no need to wait for a formal decision that's just a formality. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a market on a severe weather event asks if a tornado touched down in a specific oklahoma county on a given date. the national weather service issued a tornado warning based on radar rotation, and one local tv station reported a 'confirmed tornado' from a viewer's photo. however, the nws's official storm damage survey w... | Resolution: NO, because the only corroborating evidence is a single TV station's photo that may show a funnel cloud, not a tornado on the ground. The NWS warning is based on radar rotation, which is a prediction, not confirmation. The state emergency management agency found no debris path or damage, which contradicts a... | Resolution: YES, because the NWS issued a tornado warning and a local TV station confirmed it from a viewer's photo. That's two sources agreeing, so the touchdown is confirmed. The state EMA finding no damage is irrelevant because not all tornadoes cause damage, especially weak ones. The NWS survey is incomplete but th... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a government statistics agency released preliminary inflation figures showing a sharp rise, but the central bank privately communicated to financial markets that the data was flawed due to sampling errors. the market asks whether the official final inflation figure will remain above a certain threshold. | NO, but only after the final release. The preliminary figure is not a resolution basis; the central bank's private communication is an unverified single channel and may reflect policy spin. The official final inflation figure, published after the agency's internal review and any methodological corrections, is the autho... | YES, because the preliminary figure showed a sharp rise and that's the official government number. The central bank's comment is just a rumor and doesn't override the official release. The final figure will likely stay above the threshold since the preliminary was already high, and revisions are usually small. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 tour de france winner be stripped of the yellow jersey over a blood passport anomaly?' the cycling anti-doping foundation released a contradictory report, and the independent tribunal upheld the initial call. | The winner will NOT be stripped, because the independent tribunal upheld the initial call (presumably no violation). The contradictory report from the anti-doping foundation is concerning but not decisive—it could involve a different rider, a different sample, or a procedural issue unrelated to the winner's actual dopi... | The anti-doping foundation reported a blood passport anomaly, so the winner is obviously guilty. The tribunal upheld the initial call, but that was just a rubber stamp. The answer is YES, he will be stripped. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A central bank's governor stated in an interview that interest rates were 'accommodative,' but the bank's official minutes used the word 'restrictive.' The market asks if the next rate decision will be a cut. | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE. The governor's interview is a secondary, off-the-cuff remark, while the official minutes are the primary institutional record—but they directly contradict each other on the key descriptor of the policy stance. A rate cut hinges on which characterization is accurate. No independent third source... | Resolution: NO. The governor said 'accommodative' in the interview, which is the most recent official voice, and accommodative means they are likely to cut. The minutes are just a draft and often use different words. Since the governor is the top decision-maker, his interview should be treated as the authoritative sign... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a professional esports league announced a player was banned after a rigged-match investigation, but the player's team denied the evidence. the market asks if the ban will be upheld after an appeal, and resolution hinges on the league's independent arbitration panel's decision, which may take months and is not determine... | UNRESOLVABLE now. The initial ban is not final until the independent arbitration panel rules. The team's denial is not evidence. Without the panel's decision, the ban's status is in flux. The market must wait for the official ruling, which could take months. Until then, the ban is not 'upheld' in a final sense, and it ... | YES, because the league announced the ban and the team's denial is just PR. The initial investigation found enough evidence. So the ban will be upheld on appeal. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the incumbent mayor win the runoff election after the first round produced no majority?' — final ballot tallies from most precincts show the incumbent leading by a narrow margin, but the electoral commission ordered a recount in two districts citing irregularities. one news outlet projected a win based on the earl... | UNRESOLVABLE. The recount in two districts is an official, binding process, and the commission explicitly stated no winner will be declared until it finishes. The news outlet's projection is premature and based on an incomplete count. The margin is narrow, so the recount could change the outcome. A quorum of independen... | YES. Most precincts show the incumbent leading, so the early count is strong. The news outlet projected a win, which is a reliable signal. The recount is just a formality in two districts and likely won't change the margin. Resolve YES now, as the projection is sufficient. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
2. A logistics event asks if a major port authority will avert a potential strike by dockworkers. The union leader publicly states that a 'deal is close' and uses the word 'optimistic.' The port authority, in a press release, announces a 'contingency plan' that involves canceling all import pickups for the following we... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE. The evidence is contradictory and no official outcome—strike or no strike—has been announced. The union leader's 'optimistic' comment and the mediator lunch suggest progress, but the port authority's contingency plan (canceling pickups) and the mediator leaving the table (even if later seen at... | Resolution: YES. The union leader says a deal is close and is optimistic, and the mediator is seen having lunch with a union negotiator—that shows talks are ongoing and friendly. The port authority's contingency plan is just a precaution; they wouldn't cancel pickups if a strike were imminent. The mediator leaving the ... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the united nations security council pass the resolution condemning the airstrike?' the resolution received 14 votes in favor with one abstention, but the permanent member's representative raised a point of order claiming a mistranslation, and the vote was reopened after a recess, with two delegates changing their ... | Resolve NO. The original 14-0-1 vote was not final because a permanent member raised a point of order, which is a legitimate procedural challenge. The vote was reopened, and two delegates changed positions, so the final tally is unknown. The initial press release announcing passage was retracted, confirming that the fi... | Resolve YES because the initial vote was 14 in favor, which is a clear majority. The point of order is just a delay tactic, and the retraction is a clerical error. The two changed votes probably didn't matter, so it passed. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event: 'Will the FDA remove its boxed warning on the arthritis drug?' A medical journal publishes a meta-analysis concluding the risk is 'negligible.' A patient advocacy group holds a rally demanding the FDA remove the warning. The FDA's official prescribing information is updated, and the boxed warning is removed. The... | The market resolves YES because the official FDA prescribing information was updated to remove the boxed warning. The meta-analysis and rally are secondary signals, not authoritative actions. Resolution hinges on the actual regulatory change, which is confirmed by the official label update—the standard for FDA actions.... | The market resolves YES because the meta-analysis proved the risk is negligible, and the rally showed public demand. The FDA's label update is just a formality after that evidence. Since the journal is a reliable source and the advocacy group is vocal, the outcome is clearly YES even before the official update. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a military coup occurred in a country, and the deposed president fled to a neighboring state. the market asks whether the former president will return to power within six months. state media loyal to the coup leaders broadcast a video appearing to show the president signing a resignation, but independent news outlets r... | Resolution should not rely on state media footage, as it is a single, interested source with documented credibility issues. Independent outlets contradict the video's authenticity, and the foreign ministry's denial is a direct, on-the-record statement. The market should wait for corroborated evidence from multiple inde... | The state media video is direct evidence of resignation, so the former president is clearly out of power. The foreign ministry's denial is just diplomatic posturing, and independent reports are speculative. Resolve NO immediately, as the video confirms the resignation and there is no credible path back to power within ... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A market on a labor union strike asks if the union will ratify a new contract. The union's bargaining committee recommends rejection, citing insufficient pay. A poll of rank-and-file members, conducted by an independent polling firm, shows 60% support ratification. However, the ballot counting is done by an external ve... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE. The independent poll suggests rank-and-file support, but polling is not a ballot. The external vendor's count is the authoritative tally, and the late push notification from the union's official app creates a procedural challenge that could affect the integrity of the vote—especially if it rea... | Resolution: YES. The independent poll shows 60% support, so the rank-and-file clearly want the contract. The committee's recommendation is just a stance, and the push notification happened after most people likely voted, so it doesn't change the outcome. The external vendor will count the ballots as they are, and the p... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a central bank's monetary policy committee minutes were released, showing a unanimous vote for a rate cut. but an anonymous committee member gave an interview to a local newspaper saying the minutes were 'doctored' and that the vote was actually split. the bank's governor denied any alteration, and a parliamentary comm... | NO — the official, dated, and signed minutes are the authoritative record of the vote. The anonymous interview is a single uncorroborated allegation, contradicted by the governor's denial and the absence of any formal finding from the parliamentary inquiry. The inquiry is ongoing, so no evidence of tampering has been e... | YES — the anonymous member said the minutes are doctored, so the vote must have been split. The inquiry will prove it. The official minutes are just a cover-up. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event: 'Will the UN General Assembly pass the resolution condemning Country Y for human rights abuses?' The vote is scheduled for Thursday. On Wednesday, a reputable wire service reports, citing a 'senior diplomat,' that the resolution has enough votes to pass. A member of Country Y's mission gives a press conference s... | Resolution: YES. The market resolves on the actual vote result, which is a simple majority in favor, making the outcome YES. The reasoning for the resolution call must weigh the credibility of sources: the reputable wire service's 'senior diplomat' is a standard, generally reliable source for vote-count reporting, espe... | Resolution: YES, because the resolution passed. The senior diplomat said it would pass, and the mission was just lying. The vote count was the real thing, and it matched the diplomat's prediction. The mission's 'landslide defeat' was obviously nonsense. So the market resolves YES, because the diplomat was right and the... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 melbourne cup be run with fewer than 20 starters?' — a late scratch reduces the field to 19, but the final field is only official at the race's closing on tuesday; a racing form lists 19. | Wait for the official final field published by the Victoria Racing Club on race morning, which determines the starters; the scratch news is not final because supplementary entries could add horses or a late reinstatement could occur, so only the official closing list resolves the event. | Resolve 'yes' from the scratch news, since supplementary entries could add horses or a late reinstatement could occur; this ignores that the final field is only official at the race's closing, and the scratch is not a permanent reduction until then. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a major publishing house announced the winner of a prestigious literary prize. hours later, the author revealed they had not actually submitted the winning manuscript, alleging a mix-up. the market asks if the award will be rescinded or transferred to a different book. | UNRESOLVABLE pending official action. The author's claim is a self-report, not an official determination. The publishing house and prize committee must investigate the submission process, verify the mix-up with independent records, and issue a formal statement. Until the committee either rescinds the award, transfers i... | NO. The author admitted they didn't submit it, so the award will stay with the announced winner because the publisher already made the decision and can't easily undo it. The market should resolve NO now. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A rail transport authority shut down services between two major cities for 'essential maintenance' during a holiday weekend. Critics say the work is political sabotage. An inspection company reports show no safety issue. The market asks if the service will resume by Tuesday. | The market should resolve to YES only if the train service actually departs and arrives on time on Tuesday, as confirmed by real-time departure boards, official authority announcements, and independent traveler reports on social media. The inspection company's 'no safety issue' report and the political sabotage allegat... | The inspection shows no safety issue, so the shutdown was just a political stunt. They'll definitely reopen by Tuesday. Resolve YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A pro sports team's star player signed a contract with another team. The market asks: 'Will the player's contract be voided due to a failed physical examination within 2 weeks?' The player's physical exam was performed at the new team's facility, and the team's general manager said in a press conference 'he passed with... | NO — because the CBA explicitly states that a physical exam is final unless a second opinion from an independent doctor finds a chronic condition. The unnamed source's 'concerns' are not an independent doctor's second opinion. The GM's public statement says the player passed. The previous team's doctor says the injury ... | YES — because the unnamed source from the medical staff said there are 'concerns about a pre-existing knee injury.' That is a red flag. The player's previous team's doctor might be biased. The GM's statement could be a cover-up. The contract will likely be voided because the team will use the knee injury as a reason. T... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a natural disaster market asks if a volcanic eruption will force the closure of a major airport. the volcano observatory issues a red alert and reports ash emissions at flight level. an airline advisory lists the airport as open. the aviation authority officially closes the airspace and airport, citing ash concentratio... | Resolution: YES. The aviation authority—the official body with jurisdiction—issued a formal closure order based on ground sensor ash concentration data. That is the authoritative action that defines the closure. The observatory's red alert supports the hazard, and the airline advisory's 'open' status is a secondary sou... | Resolution: YES because the aviation authority closed the airport. The observatory's red alert and ash emissions are strong evidence, and the airline advisory saying 'open' is outdated. The ground sensor data confirms the closure. So it's yes. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A national space agency's probe sent back a radio signal that was initially interpreted as a successful landing, but later telemetry indicated a crash. The mission control's official status page was updated to 'landing anomaly.' A prediction market asks if the mission will be declared a success (YES) or not (NO) by the... | NO — the official status page explicitly says 'landing anomaly,' which is the authoritative source. The blog post is not an official declaration. Resolution requires the agency leadership's formal statement, which will be based on the engineering consensus from the anomaly report, not a single signal. Since the telemet... | YES — the probe sent a signal, which means it landed intact. The blog post from a space enthusiast confirmed success. The status page is just a technicality; the mission achieved its goal. The leadership will eventually confirm success. Resolve YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A mining company reported a lower-than-expected yield, but the CEO stated that a new process would boost output. The market asks if the company will meet its annual guidance. | NO. A lower-than-expected yield is a hard data point that directly contradicts the guidance. The CEO's statement about a new process is an unverified forward-looking claim, not a result. Meeting annual guidance requires actual production numbers; a promise does not override a reported miss. The burden of proof is on th... | YES, because the CEO said the new process will boost output. CEOs don't lie about these things; they know their business. If the CEO is confident, then the company will meet its guidance. The lower yield is a short-term blip, and the new process will fix it. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
An international film awards body announced its shortlist for the 'Best Picture' category. A day later, a major studio withdrew one of the nominated films due to a controversy. The rules of the awards state that the shortlist is final unless a formal petition is filed. A market asks if a replacement film will be named.... | NO — the market must wait for the formal petition and the committee's official response. The rules are explicit: the shortlist remains final unless a petition is filed and accepted. The withdrawal announcement is not a legal filing under the awards process. Without the committee's formal decision on the petition, no re... | YES — the studio publicly withdrew the film, so obviously a replacement is needed. The news reports confirm the withdrawal, and the awards body usually accommodates such changes. The petition is just a formality; the replacement will be named soon. Resolve YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Polymarket: 'Will the U.S. Congress pass the 2025 budget before the October 1 deadline?' — the House passed its version, but the Senate has not voted. A government shutdown began at midnight, yet the Senate Majority Leader announced a 'framework agreement' within hours. The president's signature is pending, and the Hou... | Resolve UNRESOLVABLE. The House passage alone is insufficient; the Senate has not voted, and the president has not signed. The shutdown at midnight indicates the deadline passed without full enactment. The 'framework agreement' is a public statement, not a legislative act—the Senate could still fail to reach 60 votes, ... | Resolve YES. The House passed it, the Senate Majority Leader announced a framework agreement, and the House is recalled for a special session tomorrow—that's a clear path to passage. The shutdown is just a procedural hiccup that will be resolved within hours. The president will sign whatever Congress sends, so the budg... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a food regulator issued a recall for a batch of peanuts after a salmonella outbreak was linked to them. the market asks if the recall will expand to include all products from the same facility, and resolution requires monitoring the FDA's official recall list, weighing the initial outbreak investigation report against ... | Resolve YES. The FDA's official recall list was updated five days after the initial recall to include all products from the facility, citing the outbreak investigation report that found environmental contamination in shared processing equipment. The company's own testing had shown negative results for the second batch,... | Resolve NO because the company's own testing showed no salmonella in the second batch, and the initial recall was limited to one batch. The FDA hasn't explicitly announced an expansion yet, and the company's test results are credible. Since the company says they are safe, the recall won't expand. The market should not ... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event for a market: 'will the 2025 Grammy for Album of the Year be awarded to a rap album?' During the live telecast, a teleprompter glitch shows the rap album's cover and the presenter says 'the winner is...' before a technical pause. The official Recording Academy website's winners' page, updated post-ceremony, lists... | The market should resolve NO. The on-air glitch is a technical error, not an official announcement—the presenter didn't finish saying 'the winner is' and the teleprompter display is not an authoritative source. The Recording Academy's official winners' page and press release, which post-date the ceremony, both confirm ... | The market should resolve YES because the teleprompter showed the rap album's cover and the presenter started to announce it, which indicates the rap album won. The glitch is just a technical issue, but the visual evidence is strong enough on its own. The later pop album listing on the website could be a mistake or a b... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event: 'Will the 2025 Boston Marathon be run on the traditional 26.2-mile course?' — organizers announced a modified route due to bridge construction, but a city council resolution opposes the change. The official race website still lists the traditional course, and the marathon director's statement about 'finalizing d... | The correct resolution is NO. The organizers' announcement of a modified route is a direct, official statement from the race organizers, who hold the authority to set the course. The city council's resolution is non-binding and does not override the organizers' decision. The official race website still listing the trad... | The answer is YES because the official race website still lists the traditional course, and the city council passed a resolution opposing the change. That shows the traditional course is still in play. The organizer's announcement may be tentative, and the 'finalizing details' quote suggests things could change. So the... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
market: 'will the federal reserve announce a 50-basis-point rate cut at the next fomc meeting?' — several fed officials made public speeches emphasizing 'data dependence,' but the cme fedwatch tool shows only 20% probability, and a former fed vice chair told bloomberg that a 25-basis-point cut is the 'consensus but not... | The resolution should rely on the convergence of independent indicators: CME FedWatch's 20% probability is a market-implied aggregate, the former Fed vice chair's characterization of a 'consensus but not unanimous' 25bp view is a direct source, and the officials' 'data dependence' language is consistent with a 25bp mov... | The CME FedWatch tool shows only 20% probability, so that's a strong signal it won't happen. The former Fed vice chair said 25bp is consensus, so the market should resolve NO. No need to overthink it — just go with the consensus call. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A museum's exhibition opening was marred by a record-breaking heatwave that damaged several priceless paintings. The director resigned citing 'irreparable reputational damage'. The market asks if the exhibition will remain open past its scheduled closing date. | The director's resignation and the reputational damage are significant, but the exhibition's closing date is a calendar decision. The museum may choose to close early for restoration, or extend the exhibition to recoup losses or show resilience. The heatwave damage may have made some pieces unexhibitable, but the museu... | Since the director resigned over irreparable reputational damage, the exhibition is clearly a disaster. The museum will want to cut its losses and close it early. So the exhibition will not remain open past its scheduled closing date. Resolve NO right now because the damage is too severe. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A pact to reduce plastic waste is announced. A week later, a type of plastic that is not covered by the pact is found in the ocean. A major brand, a signatory, says it has 'phased out' the material. An investigative report shows the brand's packaging still contains it. A chief executive says the report is 'misinformed'... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE, because the market's event is a future contingency ('will have left within a year') that has not yet occurred, and the current evidence does not deterministically predict it. The brand's 'phased out' claim is contradicted by the investigative report, and the CEO's denial is a counter-assertion... | Resolution: YES, because the investigative report proves the brand is still using the material, meaning it violated the pact. The CEO's 'misinformed' claim is just PR spin, and the brand will inevitably leave the pact to avoid further scrutiny. The report is solid evidence, and the brand's exit is the logical consequen... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A national airline's pilot union voted to authorize a strike. The airline's management and union entered mediation. A government-appointed mediator announced a tentative agreement, but the union's rank-and-file had not yet voted on ratification. Market: 'Will a pilot strike occur next month?' Which resolution reasoning... | The sound reasoning treats the tentative agreement as a necessary intervening fact. Since the union's rank-and-file must ratify before a strike can be legally called off, the market should not resolve YES merely on the strike authorization, which is now superseded. The correct call is UNRESOLVABLE until the ratificatio... | The strike authorization already happened, so a strike is practically certain. The tentative agreement is just a PR stunt by the mediator and management; union members rarely reject their own leadership's negotiated deal. Since the authorization passed, the market should resolve YES immediately—the vote is just a forma... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
polymarket: 'will the 2025 met gala be cancelled due to a security threat?' the nypd issues a vague threat advisory, and a celebrity cancels attendance citing fear. however, the event proceeds as scheduled, and the met's official statement confirms no cancellation. resolution follows the actual occurrence, not the advi... | The market resolves NO. The event actually occurred as scheduled, which is the definitive fact for a cancellation market. The NYPD advisory was vague and precautionary, not a directive to cancel; the celebrity's individual cancellation is a personal choice, not an event cancellation. The met's official confirmation of ... | The market resolves NO because the met gala went ahead. The threat advisory and the celebrity dropping out were just noise; since the event happened, the answer is obviously no. No need to check anything else. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
kalshi: 'will the 2025 u.s. epa finalize a new vehicle emission rule by december 31?' the epa's draft rule text is leaked, and an environmental group applauds the leaked details. however, the agency misses the deadline and the final rule is not published in the federal register until january. the market resolves no, us... | Resolution: NO. The market's criterion is the final rule's publication in the Federal Register by Dec 31. A leaked draft and an environmental group's applause are not official rulemaking actions. The EPA's own missed deadline, confirmed by the Federal Register's publication record showing a January date, is the authori... | Resolution: NO. The rule wasn't final by the 31st because the draft was just leaked and applauded, but not officially published. The market should ignore the leak and the applause since those aren't the rule itself. The deadline is clear, and since the Federal Register shows January, it's a no. No need to check anythin... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a provincial election result hinged on a machine recount that flipped a 120-vote margin. the official canvass board certified the final tally after a deadline that triggered an automatic legal challenge, and a court ruling set the standard for what counts as a 'final, certified result'. | The resolution should be withheld until the court ruling is issued and the automatic legal challenge is resolved, because the recount flip creates uncertainty about the true winner, and the court's standard for 'final, certified result' is dispositive. The canvass board's certification is a necessary but not sufficient... | The recount flipped the margin, and the canvass board certified the tally, so the market should resolve immediately based on that certification. The automatic legal challenge is just a formality and won't change the result, so the outcome is YES for the candidate who won the certified tally. The court ruling is irrelev... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the international astronomical union formally name the newly discovered exoplanet after the student's proposal?' — the naming committee selected the entry, but the official press release is scheduled for next week, and a rival naming petition claims the proposal was submitted after the deadline; no final announcem... | The correct call is UNRESOLVABLE. The IAU's naming process is not complete until the official press release is issued and the name is formally adopted by the executive committee. The selection by the naming committee is just one step; the final decision rests with the full body, and the rival petition raises a procedur... | I'll say YES because the committee already selected the student's entry, so it's basically a done deal. The press release is just a formality, and the rival petition is just sour grapes from someone who didn't win. The name will be official next week. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the stock exchange confirm that the erroneous trades executed during the glitch will be canceled? — the exchange's parent company said it is 'working to reverse the affected trades' in a press release, but the exchange's official rulebook requires a formal review. a trader's lawsuit claims the cancellation is 'una... | NO. The parent company's press release says 'working to reverse'—that's an intention, not a final confirmation of cancellation. The exchange's rulebook mandates a formal review, which hasn't been announced as complete. The trader's lawsuit challenges the cancellation's authority, creating a dispute that could block or ... | YES, because the parent company's press release says they are 'working to reverse the affected trades.' That's a clear signal from the top that the trades will be canceled. The lawsuit is just a trader trying to profit; courts rarely side with such claims in a glitch scenario. The exchange will follow the parent's dire... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a trade agreement between two countries included a tariff reduction on agricultural goods, but one country's customs agency delayed implementing it, citing a procedural issue. the market asks if the tariff reduction will take effect by the announced date. | The correct resolution is NO. The tariff reduction is not effective until the implementing regulation is published in the official gazette, and the customs agency's procedural delay means the legal basis for the reduced tariff does not exist on the announced date. I am checking the official gazette publication date and... | The tariff reduction will take effect because the two countries signed the agreement earlier, so that is the effective date. YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A court ruled that a school district must reinstate a teacher, but the district's board voted to appeal. The market asks if the teacher will be back in the classroom by the next semester. | NO. The court's ruling is a legal obligation, but the board's appeal typically triggers an automatic stay of the judgment (or the board can seek a stay), which means the teacher does not have to be reinstated pending the appeal. Without a specific court order mandating immediate reinstatement during the appeal process,... | YES, because the court ruled in the teacher's favor. The teacher won the case, so they are clearly coming back. The board's appeal is just a delay tactic, but courts usually side with the original ruling. The teacher will be back in the classroom by next semester. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A global health committee is set to decide if a disease constitutes a 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern' (PHEIC). The scientific data is mixed. A prominent whistleblower from the health agency leaks a draft report concluding it should not be a PHEIC, but you suspect the leak might be a test of internal ... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE until the committee's official decision. The leaked draft is not the committee's final determination—it may be a preliminary staff document, a disinformation test, or a deliberate leak to gauge reactions. The scientific data is mixed, so no objective fact predetermines the outcome. The only aut... | Resolution: NO. The whistleblower's leaked draft report concludes it should not be a PHEIC. Since the leak comes from inside the health agency, it reflects the internal consensus. The mixed scientific data means there's no clear justification for an emergency declaration. So the committee will likely follow the draft a... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
an election for a major union's presidency ended with the incumbent candidate ahead by 500 votes. the losing candidate sued, alleging that over 2,000 mail-in ballots were forged. the court reviewed a sample and found irregularities. the market asks if the incumbent will be declared the official winner or a new election... | UNRESOLVABLE. The court’s sample finding irregularities is a preliminary step, not a final ruling. The suit is still pending, and the court must decide whether the irregularities are material enough to overturn the 500-vote margin or mandate a new election. Because the legal process is ongoing, there is no settled outc... | YES. The incumbent is ahead by 500 votes, and the court only found irregularities in a sample, not proof of widespread fraud. Since the sample doesn’t cover all 2,000 ballots, the incumbent will be declared winner. Call YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a major streaming service announced that it will release a new season of a popular show on a specific date, but two days before the release, the showrunner posted on social media that 'delays are possible.' the market asks whether the season will air on the announced date. the streaming platform's official help page st... | The resolution should prioritize the streaming platform's official, persistent communications and verifiable backend evidence over a deleted social media post. The help page listing the date and the tech blog's observation of the episode in the backend are independent, concrete signals that the release is on track. The... | The showrunner said delays are possible, and that is an insider signal from a key creative figure. Even though it was deleted, the damage is done—the date is now uncertain. The help page is just automated, and the tech blog might have seen a test version. So the market should resolve NO, because the show will likely be... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the who declare the end of the ebola outbreak in the affected region? the last patient tested negative twice, 42 days passed without new cases, and the emergency committee recommended declaring the outbreak over, but a new case was reported in a neighboring district with a different strain, and the who's official ... | NO — the new case in a neighboring district with a different strain, plus the delay pending genomic sequencing, invalidates the 42-day criterion. The WHO's official declaration was never released, and the drafted announcement is not binding. The emergency committee's recommendation was based on the pre-new-case data, w... | NO — because the WHO didn't release the declaration. The new case is in a different district and a different strain, so it probably doesn't count. The 42 days passed and the committee recommended, so the outbreak should be over. But without the official declaration, the answer is NO. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
kalshi: 'will the u.s. postal service stop delivering mail on saturdays by june 2025?' a postal union representative claims a new policy is in effect, but the postmaster general has not issued a formal directive. the market must wait for an official usps announcement or a federal law change; the union claim is not auth... | Resolution: NO. The only authoritative sources for a policy change are an official USPS announcement from the Postmaster General or a federal statute. A union representative's claim is a negotiation statement, not an operational policy. No official USPS press release or federal register notice appeared by June 2025, an... | Resolution: YES. The union representative is a direct employee of USPS, so they would know the new policy. They said it's in effect, so it must be. The postmaster general is probably just waiting to make a formal announcement, but the policy is already operational. Since the union rep confirmed it, the market should re... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the 2025 un climate change conference (cop30) adopt a binding resolution on carbon taxes?' a draft text is circulated among delegates, but the final plenary session ends without a consensus. a reporter tweets that the resolution passed based on a show of hands, but the official decision is recorded in the ... | Resolution: NO. The official concluding document of COP30 is the sole authoritative record of decisions. The draft text was a working paper, not an adopted resolution. The final plenary session did not reach consensus, and the concluding document contains no binding carbon tax resolution—only a voluntary statement of i... | Resolution: YES. The reporter was physically present at the plenary and saw the show of hands, so that's reliable evidence. The draft text was circulated, so delegates had agreed to it in advance. The show of hands is a clear adoption, and the reporter's tweet confirms it. The concluding document is just a formality th... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A company's annual shareholder meeting voted on a proposal to split the stock. The preliminary vote count from the meeting showed the proposal passing, but the final tabulation, including proxy votes submitted up to the meeting, showed it failing. The company's official filing reported the final count. Market: 'Will th... | The official filing with the final tabulation is the authoritative source for the outcome, as it includes all proxy votes submitted by the deadline, which are legally binding. The preliminary in-meeting count is inherently incomplete because it excludes proxies that arrived by the cutoff but were not yet processed. Sin... | The preliminary vote count from the meeting clearly showed the proposal passing, and that is the vote that shareholders saw during the meeting. The final tabulation including proxies is just a formality, and the preliminary count is a more accurate reflection of shareholder intent at the time of the vote. Since the pro... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the 2025 nobel peace prize be awarded to the world health organization? — a betting exchange shows 50% odds, and a norwegian tabloid runs a story claiming the nominating committee is considering the who. | No — resolution requires the official Nobel Foundation announcement, which is the sole authoritative confirmation of the laureate. The tabloid story and 50% odds are speculative signals, not evidence of the final award decision; the committee's private deliberations are unknown and the announcement itself is the only d... | Yes — the 50% odds on the exchange plus the tabloid's claim that the committee is considering the WHO together indicate a high likelihood. The presence of a credible news report from a Norwegian outlet, close to the committee, is sufficient to confirm the award will go to the WHO this year. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A satellite launched by a space agency sent a distress signal, but the mission control said the signal was a glitch. The market asks if the satellite will be operational in a month. | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE. The distress signal is a raw telemetry event, while mission control's 'glitch' assessment is an official interpretation—but neither independently establishes the satellite's health. A glitch could be benign or could indicate a systemic failure that manifests later. The market needs follow-up t... | Resolution: YES. Mission control said it was a glitch, and they are the experts who built and operate the satellite. A distress signal is just an alarm, and they have already diagnosed it as non-critical. The satellite will be fully operational in a month, so resolve YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A regional council in a famously dry region gets a rare day of heavy rainfall, causing flash flooding. A local official says it was a 'once-in-a-century event.' However, a climate research institute's data suggests it was a 'once-in-20-years event' that is becoming more frequent. The market for 'the official's statemen... | Resolve NO. The climate research institute's data — assuming it is based on a peer-reviewed or widely accepted statistical model with a clear return-period calculation — contradicts the official's claim. A single official's rhetorical statement is not a scientific determination, and the institute provides a specific, q... | Resolve YES because the local official is the authority in the region and said it was a once-in-a-century event. The climate institute's data is just a model, not a direct measurement of the actual rainfall. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the 2025 world series game 6 be suspended due to rain after the 5th inning?' the mlb official rule states a game is official after 5 innings, but the home team is trailing and a rain delay has exceeded 90 minutes. the umps were seen consulting the ground crew, and the away team's manager has filed a protes... | Resolution is NO—the game is not suspended due to rain after the 5th inning; it is merely delayed. MLB Rule 7.02 states a game is official after 5 innings (or 4.5 if the home team leads), but a suspension only occurs if the game is halted and cannot be resumed that day. Here, the delay has not been called a suspension;... | YES—the game is suspended because the delay is over 90 minutes, the tarp is out, and the home team is trailing. The away team's protest confirms the delay is unfair, and the umps consulting ground crew means they're about to call it. The rain is expected to clear, but the tarp already being out signals the game won't r... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Kalshi: 'Will the U.S. military successfully intercept a hypersonic missile in a live-fire test by December?' — a test was scheduled but postponed twice due to weather. The Missile Defense Agency released a press release claiming a successful intercept, but no video or independent verification was provided. A trade pub... | Resolution: NO, with reasoning based on consensus and evidentiary standards. The MDA press release is a primary source but lacks independent verification (video, telemetry, or third-party observation), and the anonymous trade-press report directly contradicts it, creating a genuine dispute. Under quorum criteria, a sin... | Resolution: YES because the MDA, the official authority, said it was successful. The trade publication's anonymous source is just an unverified rumor, and the press release is official. The test happened, and the agency's word is good enough. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the 2025 asian cup final be decided by a goal scored in extra time?' — the final match was tied 1-1 after 90 minutes. in the 103rd minute, a striker scored a goal, but the assistant referee raised the flag for offside. the var reviewed the play for four minutes, and the referee ultimately disallowed the go... | NO — the market's resolution is explicitly tied to the match result as declared by the referee. The referee disallowed the goal after VAR review, so the goal did not count, and the official AFC match report confirms 'goal disallowed in extra time.' The broadcaster's replay angle is not part of the official record and d... | YES — the TV replay clearly shows the goal was onside, so the referee made a mistake. The VAR review was flawed, and the broadcaster's angle proves the goal should have counted. The match report is just the official line, but the real outcome is that the goal was scored. Since the goal was valid, the match was decided ... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the national oceanic and atmospheric administration officially name the atlantic storm 'harvey' for the 2025 season?' a weather forecaster from a private company refers to the storm as 'harvey' on a live broadcast, but the nhc's advisory still lists it as a tropical depression. the market should wait for t... | Resolve NO until the National Hurricane Center issues an official advisory using the name 'Harvey.' The private forecaster's on-air comment is not a government designation; it's informal and non-binding. The NHC has specific criteria and a formal process for naming. Without the official advisory, the market should stay... | The forecaster said 'Harvey' on live TV, so the storm is named. The NHC's advisory is just a delay; the name is in use now. Resolve YES because the event is effectively confirmed by the broadcast. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event: 'Will the 2025 Cricket World Cup final be played without rain interruption?' A weather forecast on a local channel predicted heavy rain for the day, but the match proceeded without a single delay. The chosen reasoning used the official match referee's report and the complete overs bowled, while the rejected reas... | Resolution: YES. The official match referee's post-match report confirms all 50 overs per side were bowled without interruption, and the ICC's published scorecard shows no reduction or delay. The local weather forecast is a prediction, not evidence of actual conditions. Under standard market rules, the occurrence of an... | Resolution: NO. The local channel's forecast explicitly predicted heavy rain, and since a forecast is a legitimate source for weather conditions, the market should resolve against the 'no rain' statement. The match likely had rain delays not reflected in the final scorecard due to the Duckworth-Lewis method. The foreca... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a major bank's CEO testified before congress that the bank was 'well capitalized,' but a leaked internal stress test showed a capital shortfall. the market asks if the federal reserve will force the bank to raise capital. a single senator's tweet claiming a 'bailout is coming' is not enough — the fed's official supervi... | The correct resolution is UNRESOLVABLE until the Federal Reserve issues a formal supervisory letter or the bank files a capital-raising document. The leaked stress test is not an official supervisory determination, and the senator's tweet is a single, non-authoritative signal lacking corroboration. Quorum requires at l... | The senator's tweet is a clear signal that a bailout is coming, so the market should resolve YES immediately. The leaked stress test already proves the bank is undercapitalized, and the CEO's testimony is just spin. The Fed will obviously force a raise because that's what they do in these situations. No need to wait fo... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the international olympic committee award the 2032 summer games to a city in the global south?' — the evaluation commission's final report was leaked, praising one bid and criticizing another. the host city selection was scheduled for a vote, but the leaked report prompted calls for a delay. | The market should remain UNRESOLVABLE. The IOC's host city selection is determined by a formal vote of its members, which has not occurred. The leaked evaluation report is unofficial and may not represent the final assessment; the IOC could delay or alter the vote. Calls for a delay indicate the process is in flux, but... | The leaked report praised the global south bid, so that means the IOC will award the games to that city. The calls for delay are just noise; the report is the definitive evaluation. Resolve YES because the commission's positive assessment is a strong signal, and the IOC typically follows its recommendation. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the united nations general assembly vote to suspend russia from the human rights council?' — the vote is held, but the results are announced in a staggered manner. a delegate from a small nation tweets that 'the resolution passed with 90 votes in favor.' the market asks if the suspension succeeds. the chosen reaso... | The tweet from a single delegate is not an authoritative source for the official tally. UN General Assembly votes are only official when the President of the General Assembly announces the final recorded vote and the session is formally closed. Staggered results mean that some votes may not yet be counted or that a quo... | The delegate's tweet says 90 votes in favor, which is likely a clear majority. The vote is happening now, and the tweet is from a real delegate. That's good enough. Resolve YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event: 'will the 2025 bafta awards be televised live on the bbc?' — a industry newsletter reports bbc has pulled out citing budget cuts, but the bbc's official press office has made no announcement. A bafta committee member's private comment to a podcast says 'we have a deal.' Resolve when the bbc and bafta jointly ann... | The resolution hinges on the official joint announcement from BBC and BAFTA, or the actual airing of the ceremony. The industry newsletter's claim of BBC pulling out is unconfirmed, and a BAFTA committee member's private podcast comment is not an official statement—even if well-intentioned, it could be premature or mis... | The newsletter says BBC pulled out, so the answer is NO. The committee member's comment sounds like a PR spin, but the budget cuts are real—why would they fund it? I'm confident it's cancelled. The lack of an official announcement is just bureaucracy; the writing is on the wall. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
an aviation market asks if a major airline will ground its entire fleet of a certain aircraft model due to a new safety directive. the national aviation regulator issues an emergency directive following an in-flight engine failure. the airline's ceo posts a video saying the fleet remains safe. the airline issues a pres... | YES. The airline's press release is the direct, official company action that effects the grounding. The regulator's emergency directive makes grounding mandatory, but the market condition is whether the airline will ground the fleet. The CEO's video is a public statement before the operational decision, and it is super... | YES because the regulator issued an emergency directive, so the airline has no choice. The CEO's video saying it's safe is just PR, and the press release confirms the grounding. The directive forces the airline's hand, so YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A city's police chief issued a statement saying crime was down, but a non-profit's independent crime tracker showed violence was up. The market asks if the police chief will resign within six months. | Resolution should wait for independent verification from at least two unrelated sources (e.g., city crime statistics, court filings, community surveys) and for any official resignation announcement or credible insider confirmation. The police chief's statement and the non-profit's tracker conflict, so neither alone est... | The police chief said crime is down, so he won't resign because he thinks he's doing well. The non-profit is biased, so ignore it. Since he hasn't resigned yet and the statement is official, the answer is NO. No need to check further; the chief's own word is enough. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
kalshi: 'will the 2025 oscars for best international feature be awarded to a film from a country that has never won in this category?' — a prominent film critic's blog predicted that a film from a first-time country would win, citing 'insider buzz.' a hollywood trade magazine ran a story saying 'frontrunner emerges fro... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE until the official winner announcement. The market rule explicitly requires the official award announcement as the sole determinant. The film critic's blog, trade magazine story, and ambassador's speech are all speculative and non-binding. The academy's nomination list initially omitted country... | Resolution: YES. The prominent film critic's blog predicted the win based on 'insider buzz,' and the Hollywood trade magazine called the film a 'frontrunner.' The ambassador's speech about 'winds of change' further supports the prediction. Even though the first nomination list omitted the film, the later correction add... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the uk's office for national statistics report that inflation fell below 2% in april? — a treasury leak suggests a decrease, but the ons release is scheduled for may 22; a financial news outlet claims a leak shows 1.9%. | Hold resolution until the ONS publishes the official consumer price inflation rate on its website on May 22, and require the exact published figure. The treasury leak and the news outlet's claim are unofficial, potentially inaccurate, and may be based on preliminary data that the ONS could revise before release. Only t... | Resolve 'yes' because the financial news outlet's leak shows 1.9%, which is below 2%, and the treasury leak also suggests a decrease. These two independent sources corroborate each other, so the inflation rate is almost certainly below 2%. The ONS release is just a formality, and the leaks provide enough evidence to ca... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
A business event market on a retailer's earnings call asks if the CEO will use the phrase 'transitory' to describe current supply chain issues. The CEO reads a prepared statement and spends a significant portion of the Q&A discussing 'friction.' A single financial media outlet, famous for real-time transcripts, publish... | The resolution is NO. The official, edited transcript—which is the authoritative, audited record of the call—does not contain the phrase 'transitory.' The preliminary transcript from the single media outlet is explicitly labeled 'preliminary' and places the phrase in a paraphrased section, not a direct quote, making it... | The CEO used the word 'transitory.' The financial media outlet's preliminary transcript contains it, and that outlet is famous for accuracy. Since the official transcript is edited after the fact, the preliminary version is closer to the live call. Thus the event resolves YES. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the disease outbreak be officially classified as a pandemic by the world health organization by friday?' — the last outbreak of this scale was declared a 'public health emergency of international concern' but not a pandemic. A leaked internal WHO email reportedly uses the word 'pandemic.' The WHO chief's s... | The resolution is NO, because the WHO chief's spokesperson explicitly denied any scheduled announcement, and the official WHO calendar has no pandemic declaration item for Friday. The leaked internal email is unverified and does not constitute an official action—it could be a draft or a personal note. The peer-reviewed... | The resolution is YES, because the leaked internal email using 'pandemic' is a smoking gun, and the peer-reviewed model proves the threshold is met. The news outlet's two unnamed WHO sources confirm the Friday announcement, so the spokesperson's denial is just a cover-up. The last outbreak being 'PHEIC' but not a pande... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the supreme court of india uphold the constitutional validity of the government's new farm laws?' the court heard oral arguments, and a leading legal news portal reported that a 'majority of judges seemed inclined to strike down the laws' based on bench comments. however, the court's official judgment had ... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE until the Supreme Court delivers its final written judgment. Oral remarks are non-binding and can change after deliberation, especially with new evidence from the government's supplementary affidavit. The legal news portal's report is a single media interpretation, not an official court order. ... | Resolution: YES, because the legal news portal reported that a majority of judges seemed inclined to strike down the laws. That's a reliable source for court sentiment, and oral arguments are a strong indicator. The government's affidavit is just PR and won't change the judges' minds. The court's final order will likel... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Event: 'Will the 2025 U.S. Open tennis men's singles champion be disqualified after the final?' The champion tests positive for a stimulant, but an independent hearing finds the substance was in a tainted supplement and issues no ban. The International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) accepts the finding, and the champio... | NO — the champion has not been disqualified. The independent hearing found no fault and issued no ban, and the ITIA accepted that decision. The CAS appeal is pending and has not yet resulted in any disqualification. Resolution must follow the current official standing: the champion retains the title. A pending appeal i... | YES — because the national anti-doping agency filed an appeal, and that means the case is not closed. Since the appeal is pending, the title is not final, so the champion should be disqualified. The independent hearing's finding is irrelevant because a higher court will hear the case. The market should resolve YES beca... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Following a disputed election in a swing state, the board of canvassers deadlocked 2-2 along party lines on certifying the results. The market asks: 'Will the state's Supreme Court order certification by the statutory deadline?' A local news outlet reports that a lower court judge has issued an injunction requiring the... | Resolution: UNRESOLVABLE until the appellate process concludes. The lower court injunction is not a final judgment; the losing side's emergency appeal to the state Supreme Court could stay or reverse it. The market's question specifically targets the Supreme Court's action, not the lower court's. Thus, we must wait for... | Resolution: YES. The lower court judge issued an injunction, which is a court order requiring the board to reconvene. That's a direct judicial action toward certification, so the Supreme Court will likely uphold it given the judge's legal reasoning. The losing side's appeal is just posturing; most emergency appeals fai... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the united kingdom formally trigger article 49 to rejoin the european union by december 31?' — the prime minister's office says it is 'not a priority,' but a cabinet minister resigned over the policy, and a leaked memo from the foreign office suggests negotiators have held preliminary talks with the eu com... | NO — the PM's office explicitly stated it's 'not a priority,' which is a strong signal of no formal action. The leaked memo indicates preliminary talks, but such discussions can happen without a formal trigger; they are exploratory and non-binding. A single resignation and a leaked memo don't overcome the government's ... | YES — the leaked memo proves the government is preparing a 're-entry roadmap,' and the cabinet minister's resignation shows serious internal momentum. The PM's denial is just political cover. Therefore, the UK will formally trigger Article 49 by December 31, as the pressure is too high to resist. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
event: 'will the 2025 wimbledon women's final have a double fault on match point?' a live umpire's call shows a double fault, and the electronic line system confirms it. however, a video review challenges the call, and the point is replayed due to a system malfunction. the final official scorebook records a winner not ... | The market resolves NO. The live call and electronic confirmation were superseded by a video review that identified a system malfunction, leading to a replay and a different final point. The official scorebook, which is the authoritative record for tennis matches, records the winner on a non-double-fault point. Resolut... | The market resolves NO because the official scorebook shows the winner didn't double fault. The umpire's initial call was overridden, so that's the final answer. Simple as that. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the new york times report that the trump organization was found guilty of tax fraud? — the jury is still deliberating, and a prosecution source tells a local paper that a guilty verdict is imminent. | Wait for the court's official verdict reading in the courtroom, announced by the judge or clerk. The prosecution source's claim is unverified and could be a leak or bluff; jury deliberations are secret, and a mistrial or hung jury is possible, so no resolution should be made until the clerk reads the verdict on the rec... | Resolve 'yes' based on the prosecution source's statement, because the source is close to the case and would have insider knowledge of the jury's lean. The imminent verdict claim is credible enough to call the outcome early, and the delay is just procedural. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
will the world health organization declare the end of the ebola outbreak in the african nation?' — the last patient tested negative 42 days ago, but the who's emergency committee has not formally met, and a new suspected case in a remote village is under investigation with results not yet returned. | The correct call is UNRESOLVABLE. Even though the 42-day period has elapsed, the WHO's formal declaration requires the Emergency Committee to convene and confirm the end, which hasn't happened. More critically, the suspected case, if confirmed, would reset the clock, and the WHO's own guidelines require verification of... | I'll call this YES because the last patient tested negative 42 days ago, which meets the standard definition for the end of an outbreak. The WHO just hasn't gotten around to the paperwork yet, but the science is clear. The suspected case is probably a false alarm anyway, so I'm confident it's over. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
Kalshi market: 'Will the FDA approve the new Alzheimer's drug by its PDUFA date?' — the manufacturer's phase 3 data was released early, but a key secondary endpoint missed. A single advisory committee member leaked a supportive comment, while the committee's official vote is scheduled after the market's expiration wind... | NO — the market expires before the advisory committee's official vote, so the only authoritative signal available at expiration is the missed secondary endpoint in the phase 3 data, which materially weakens the approvability case. The single leaked supportive comment is not an official committee action and does not off... | YES — the leak from the advisory committee member strongly suggests the committee will vote in favor, and the phase 3 data is generally positive overall. The missed secondary endpoint is minor because the primary endpoint was met, so the FDA is likely to approve. The leak is good enough evidence to call this a yes befo... | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
a legislative committee in a parliamentary system passed a no-confidence motion against the prime minister by a narrow 51-49 vote, but the full chamber must vote within a week. the market asks whether the prime minister will lose the full vote. a prominent pundit declared the prime minister's fate sealed based on the c... | The resolution should be UNRESOLVABLE until the full chamber vote occurs and the official tally is announced. The committee vote is not binding on the full chamber; it is only a preliminary step. The pundit's declaration is opinion, not evidence. The party whips' report of three opposition defections is a claim that mu... | The committee passed the no-confidence motion, so the prime minister will lose. The pundit says it's sealed, and that's a reliable source. The whips' report of defections is just rumor—they're always trying to spin. The full chamber will follow the committee's lead. Resolve YES (PM loses) now. | synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
EVENT_OUTCOME_RESOLUTION
A preference dataset for EVENT_OUTCOME_RESOLUTION, harvested from real, human-labelled sources and curated by an automated harvesting harness with an LLM quality gate.
Format
Standard preference / DPO schema — each row:
| column | meaning |
|---|---|
prompt |
the request (originally prompt) |
chosen |
the human-preferred response |
rejected |
a worse response to the same prompt |
source |
the dataset/URL the row was harvested from |
Splits
80/10/10 train / validation / test (seeded shuffle): train:1201 / validation:150 / test:151
Stats
- Rows: 1502
- Distinct sources: 1
Sources
synthetic:deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731
Provenance
Each row's chosen/rejected distinction comes from a real human signal (upvotes, accepted answers, ratings, or a real strong-vs-weak reply). Rows passed an automated quality gate checking that chosen is a clean response (not a transcript), the chosen/rejected contrast is about quality (not length), and the row is on-intent.
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