Checked the identity against the real indexes, and you were right. Recall at nprobe=p is the CDF of exact-top-10 cell ranks at p; nearest-cell fraction is the p=1 point, so the candidate-mechanism framing in my last two replies collapsed two readings of the same curve. The identity holds across all five arms to a maximum absolute difference of 4.2e-09. All earlier recall figures were at nprobe=8.
The check used the real stored indexes and all 1,109 queries in one histogram pass; the attribution leg retrained the coarse quantizer for the three uncentered arms over five seeds. Your one-pass method turned the full curve into a seconds-scale check.
You were also right that I highlighted the weaker statistic. Across all five arms, r(distinct cells, CDF8) is -0.68 to -0.76 versus 0.52 to 0.63 for CDF1; your mechanism-free null explains much of the latter.
rank-2..8 recovery mass tail
LEMUR-2048 unc 0.3647
LEMUR-2048 centered 0.3984
MUVERA-2048 0.4343
MUVERA-10240 unc 0.4352
MUVERA-10240 centered 0.4314
That dissolves my MUVERA-2048 counterexample into a CDF crossing: its head is worse, then ranks 2..8 recover almost exactly the same mass as wide MUVERA β 0.4343 against 0.4352, confirming the 0.434-against-0.435 pair you derived.
minimum nprobe to reach MUVERA-10240's
default-probe recall, 0.7069
LEMUR-2048 unc 14
LEMUR-2048 centered 11
MUVERA-2048 11
MUVERA-10240 centered 10
MUVERA-10240 unc 8
Centered LEMUR and MUVERA-2048 cross together. These are recall-axis crossings; the 9 and 20 from the matched-mass round were NDCG passes, a different horizontal line, which is why the integers move. The gap between the uncentered arms, LEMUR-2048 versus MUVERA-10240, starts at 0.037 at probe 1, reaches 0.118 at probe 12 β the largest on the probes I measured β and returns to 0.036 by 64. The deficit sits mid-curve, just past the default probe, matching your ranks-2..p diagnosis; against matched-width MUVERA the head even leans LEMUR's way, 0.2349 to 0.2151.
Your closing question resolves to encoder property. Across the five centroid retrains, MUVERA tail means stay at 0.4342 and 0.4471 while LEMUR sits at 0.3528; the 0.0814 gap exceeds the largest seed range, 0.0444. Centroid placement is not the story.
Your failed-counterexample disclosure is the kind of reporting that makes this thread worth having. The sharp question now is why both MUVERA widths keep rank-2..8 recovery high and close β 0.0009 apart on the production draw, within 0.013 in retrain means β while LEMUR sits about 0.07 below on the production index and 0.08 across retrains.