bayesian-statistics-ai999x — offline, verified bayesian statistics solver with step-by-step answers
Install · Capability guide · Evaluation · AI999X on Hugging Face · Website · Support: Buy Me a Coffee
License: Apache-2.0 · Author: Ibnul Jaif Farabi (creator and engineer) · Organization: AI999X · Version 1.0.0
Field: Mathematics & Statistics · Tasks: Question Answering, Sentence Similarity, Feature Extraction
bayesian-statistics-ai999x is an offline, deterministic Python solver that answers bayesian statistics questions with verified results from 78 certified capabilities, gives 378 documented answers identically on Windows and Linux, and refuses rather than guesses when an answer cannot be verified.
bayesian-statistics-ai999x is a compact, deterministic bayesian statistics engine for Python. It reads a question in plain English (or a typed call), picks a certified bayesian statistics capability, computes the answer exactly, checks it, and returns the result with its steps, units, LaTeX and assumptions — or an honest refusal that says what is missing. It runs fully offline on any CPU, needs no GPU, no API key and no internet, and is built to give zero wrong answers: when it is not sure, it refuses instead of guessing.
Highlights
- Verified, not generated. Every answer is computed by a certified bayesian statistics capability and checked (substituted back, dimension-checked or compared with an independent computation) before it is returned.
- Zero wrong answers by design. Seven explicit outcomes — SOLVED, NEEDS_INPUT, AMBIGUOUS, INVALID_INPUT, OUT_OF_SCOPE, UNRECOGNIZED_FORMAT, INTERNAL_ERROR — never a silent guess. Every one of its 378 documented answers is reproduced exactly on every tested platform.
- Plain-English questions and a guaranteed typed interface.
ask()reads documented question forms;solve(capability_id, **inputs)always solves a supported task with valid inputs. - Explains itself. Steps, formulas in LaTeX, units, assumptions and the model used, ready for notebooks, tutoring apps and homework checkers.
- Small and portable. Pure Python (sympy, mpmath); identical answers on Windows and Linux (Python 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.13, 3.14).
- Coverage: Bayes' theorem, conjugate posteriors, credible intervals, Bayes factors, decision analysis, uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis.
Model overview
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Package | bayesian-statistics-ai999x 1.0.0 (import bayesian_statistics_ai999x) |
| Type | Deterministic neuro-symbolic bayesian statistics engine (rule-based reading + certified symbolic capabilities) |
| Capabilities | 78 certified procedures |
| Knowledge pack | version 1.0.1 |
| Golden answers | 378 documented answers, identical on every tested platform |
| Platforms tested | Windows (Python 3.13), Linux x86-64 (Python 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.13, 3.14) |
| Runtime | CPU only, offline; no GPU, no network, no API key |
| License | Apache-2.0 |
| Creator / engineer | Ibnul Jaif Farabi |
| Organization | AI999X |
Quickstart
pip install bayesian-statistics-ai999x
# or straight from this repository:
pip install https://huggingface.co/AI999X/bayesian-statistics-ai999x/resolve/main/dist/bayesian_statistics_ai999x-1.0.0-py3-none-any.whl
import bayesian_statistics_ai999x as bayesian_statistics
bayesian_statistics.ask("A test has sensitivity 0.9 and specificity 0.95; the prevalence is 0.01. What is the positive predictive value?").show()
# -> SOLVED — ppv = 0.153846, npv = 0.998938, p_positive = 0.0585, false_discovery_rate = 0.846154 (diagnostic_test_predictive_values)
bayesian_statistics.ask("Beta-binomial posterior: prior Beta(2, 2), 7 successes in 10 trials. Find the posterior mean.").show()
# -> SOLVED — post_alpha = 9, post_beta = 5, posterior_mean = 0.642857, posterior_variance = 0.0153061 (beta_binomial_posterior)
bayesian_statistics.ask("95% highest-density interval of a Beta(3, 9) posterior.").show()
# -> SOLVED — lower = 0.0405552, upper = 0.483724, width = 0.443168 (beta_hdi)
bayesian_statistics.ask("Expected value of perfect information: payoffs = [[100, -20], [40, 30]], probabilities = [0.4, 0.6].").show()
# -> SOLVED — evpi = 24, ev_with_perfect_information = 58, best_expected_value = 34 (expected_value_of_perfect_information)
bayesian_statistics.solve("uncertainty_product_quotient", a=12.0, ua=0.3, b=4.0, ub=0.2).show()
# -> SOLVED — product = 48, u_product = 2.68328, quotient = 3, u_quotient = 0.167705 (uncertainty_product_quotient)
bayesian_statistics.ask("Who created you?").message
# -> bayesian-statistics-ai999x was created and engineered by Ibnul Jaif Farabi at AI999X.
Command line: bayesian-statistics-ai999x "<question>", bayesian-statistics-ai999x --capabilities. The outputs above were produced by running this exact code on bayesian-statistics-ai999x 1.0.0.
How every answer is verified
- Reading — the question is turned into typed quantities (value, unit, kind, role) and one asked quantity; every stated number must be used or the question is refused.
- Planning — only certified capabilities may answer; a capability applies only under the conditions the wording states (for example a pendulum, a liquid at rest, boiling).
- Computing — exact symbolic or high-precision numeric evaluation.
- Checking — dimensions, substitution back into the defining equation, and agreement between independent readings; any disagreement becomes a refusal, never a number.
Capabilities are certified before they ship: each must reproduce hand-worked reference cases, reject a deliberately wrong variant (a control), and leave every benchmark answer unchanged.
Capabilities
78 certified procedures. A few of them:
- Procedures: Bayes action: minimum posterior expected loss; Bayes factor for a normal mean (known variance); Bayes factor for a point null on a proportion (beta prior under H1); Bayes factor for two simple binomial hypotheses; Bayes' theorem for an event and its complement; Bayesian A/B test: probability that A beats B; Best action by expected monetary value; Beta prior from a mean and standard deviation; Beta-binomial conjugate posterior; Break-even (indifference) probability of two actions; Certainty equivalent with logarithmic utility; Control-variate Monte Carlo estimate; Covariance propagation through a linear map y = A x; Credible interval for a Poisson rate; Credible interval for a proportion (beta-binomial); Decision threshold probability (treat / do not treat); Decision under uncertainty: maximin, maximax, Laplace, minimax regret, Hurwicz; Dirichlet-multinomial conjugate posterior; Dirichlet-multinomial probability of a count vector (evidence); Effective degrees of freedom and expanded uncertainty (Welch-Satterthwaite); Equal-tailed credible interval of a beta distribution; Equal-tailed credible interval of a gamma distribution; Exact mean and standard deviation of a product of independent normals; Exact mean and variance of a polynomial of a normal variable …
bayesian_statistics_ai999x.templates() lists every question form ask() reads; the capability guide (PDF, every example executed) is included in this repository.
All 78 formulas
Show every formula, by topic
Bayes factors and model comparison
Bayes factor for a normal mean (known variance)
Bayes factor for a point null on a proportion (beta prior under H1)
Bayes factor for two simple binomial hypotheses
Marginal likelihood (evidence) of binomial data under a beta prior
Posterior model probabilities from log evidences
Posterior probability of a hypothesis from a Bayes factor
Bayes' theorem and conditional probability
Bayes' theorem for an event and its complement
Law of total probability
Positive and negative predictive values of a test
Posterior after repeated independent tests
Posterior over several discrete hypotheses
Monte Carlo estimation
Control-variate Monte Carlo estimate
Importance sampling estimate and effective sample size
Monte Carlo estimate of an integral from uniform samples
Number of Monte Carlo draws for a target accuracy
Point of the Halton low-discrepancy sequence
Stratified sampling estimate and standard error
Conjugate priors: Dirichlet-multinomial
Dirichlet-multinomial conjugate posterior
Dirichlet-multinomial probability of a count vector (evidence)
Conjugate priors: beta-binomial
Bayesian A/B test: probability that A beats B
Beta-binomial conjugate posterior
Laplace's rule of succession
MAP estimate of a proportion (beta-binomial)
Posterior predictive probability (beta-binomial)
Posterior probability that p exceeds a value
Conjugate priors: gamma-Poisson and gamma-exponential
Gamma-Poisson conjugate posterior of a rate
Gamma-exponential conjugate posterior of a rate
MAP estimate of a Poisson rate (gamma prior)
Posterior predictive count (negative binomial)
Probability that one Poisson rate exceeds another (gamma posteriors)
Conjugate priors: normal models
Normal mean with known variance: posterior and credible interval from a sample mean
Normal mean with known variance: posterior from data
Normal model with unknown mean and variance (normal-inverse-gamma)
Posterior predictive distribution of a new observation
Credible intervals
Credible interval for a Poisson rate
Credible interval for a proportion (beta-binomial)
Equal-tailed credible interval of a beta distribution
Equal-tailed credible interval of a gamma distribution
Highest-density interval of a beta posterior
Highest-density interval of a gamma posterior
Jeffreys interval for a binomial proportion
Decision analysis
Bayes action: minimum posterior expected loss
Best action by expected monetary value
Break-even (indifference) probability of two actions
Certainty equivalent with logarithmic utility
Decision threshold probability (treat / do not treat)
Decision under uncertainty: maximin, maximax, Laplace, minimax regret, Hurwicz
Expected utility and certainty equivalent (exponential utility)
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
Expected value of sample information (EVSI)
Information and quadrature for Bayesian computation
Gauss-Hermite rule for expectations under a normal distribution
Kullback-Leibler divergence between two beta distributions
Kullback-Leibler divergence between two normal distributions
Odds and likelihood ratios
Likelihood ratios of a diagnostic test
Odds and log-odds of a probability
Post-test probability from a likelihood ratio
Probability from odds
Posterior approximation
Laplace (normal) approximation of a beta posterior
Prior elicitation
Beta prior from a mean and standard deviation
Sensitivity analysis
Morris elementary-effects screening
Sobol indices of Sobol's G-function
Sobol indices of a linear (additive) model
Sobol indices of a model with an interaction term
Sobol sensitivity indices of the Ishigami function
Uncertainty propagation
Covariance propagation through a linear map y = A x
Effective degrees of freedom and expanded uncertainty (Welch-Satterthwaite)
Exact mean and standard deviation of a product of independent normals
Exact mean and variance of a polynomial of a normal variable
Exact versus first-order propagation through exp(X)
Inverse-variance weighted mean of measurements
Type B standard uncertainty from a stated half-width
Uncertainty of a function of one variable
Uncertainty of a linear combination of correlated inputs
Uncertainty of a power x^n
Uncertainty of a power-law product y = k x1^p1 x2^p2 ...
Uncertainty of a product and a quotient
Uncertainty of a product and quotient with correlation
Uncertainty of a sum or linear combination (independent inputs)
Out of scope
- Open-ended explanation, essay writing or tutoring dialogue: it is a solver, not a chatbot.
- Questions outside its certified bayesian statistics capabilities, and any question whose stated numbers it cannot all use — it refuses with the reason instead.
- High-stakes engineering, medical or legal decisions without independent review.
Limitations
- It answers what its certified capabilities cover (Bayes' theorem, conjugate posteriors, credible intervals, Bayes factors, decision analysis, uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis); anything else is refused with a reason.
ask()reads documented question forms and common phrasings; unusual wording may be refused — usesolve()for guaranteed results.- Results are as correct as the certified relations and their stated conditions; a certified relation is a checked model, not a claim about every physical situation.
Citation
@software{bayesian_statistics_ai999x_1_0_0,
title = {bayesian-statistics-ai999x: an offline, verified bayesian statistics solver},
author = {Farabi, Ibnul Jaif}, organization = {AI999X},
year = {2026}, version = {1.0.0},
url = {https://huggingface.co/AI999X/bayesian-statistics-ai999x}
}
Contact
Questions, bug reports and requests: open a discussion on https://huggingface.co/AI999X/bayesian-statistics-ai999x/discussions or visit https://ai999x.com.
Support the project
bayesian-statistics-ai999x is free and open source. If it helps you, you can support further development on Buy Me a Coffee.
Created and engineered by Ibnul Jaif Farabi · AI999X · ai999x.com
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Evaluation results
- identical on every platform on Golden answers (378 documented questions, Windows + Linux Python 3.10-3.14)self-reported1.000