Daily Papers

Contemporary models of high dimensional physical systems are constrained by the curse of dimensionality and a reliance on dense data. We introduce KHRONOS (Kernel Expansion Hierarchy for Reduced Order, Neural Optimized Surrogates), an AI framework for model based, model free and model inversion tasks. KHRONOS constructs continuously differentiable target fields with a hierarchical composition of per-dimension kernel expansions, which are tensorized into modes and then superposed. We evaluate KHRONOS on a canonical 2D, Poisson equation benchmark: across 16 to 512 degrees of freedom (DoFs), it obtained L_2-square errors of 5e-4 down to 6e-11. This represents a greater than 100-fold gain over Kolmogorov Arnold Networks (which itself reports a 100 times improvement on MLPs/PINNs with 100 times fewer parameters) when controlling for the number of parameters. This also represents a 1e6-fold improvement in L_2-square error compared to standard linear FEM at comparable DoFs. Inference complexity is dominated by inner products, yielding sub-millisecond full-field predictions that scale to an arbitrary resolution. For inverse problems, KHRONOS facilitates rapid, iterative level set recovery in only a few forward evaluations, with sub-microsecond per sample latency. KHRONOS's scalability, expressivity, and interpretability open new avenues in constrained edge computing, online control, computer vision, and beyond.

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the exact minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the known lower bounds for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the recently proposed min-max regression procedure, thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all p-th power error functions for p in (2, infty). Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.

We study the problem of learning a single neuron with respect to the L_2^2-loss in the presence of adversarial label noise. We give an efficient algorithm that, for a broad family of activations including ReLUs, approximates the optimal L_2^2-error within a constant factor. Our algorithm applies under much milder distributional assumptions compared to prior work. The key ingredient enabling our results is a novel connection to local error bounds from optimization theory.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

With the recent emergence of mixed precision hardware, there has been a renewed interest in its use for solving numerical linear algebra problems fast and accurately. The solution of least squares (LS) problems min_x|b-Ax|_2, where A in R^{mtimes n}, arise in numerous application areas. Overdetermined standard least squares problems can be solved by using mixed precision within the iterative refinement method of Björck, which transforms the least squares problem into an (m+n)times(m+n) ''augmented'' system. It has recently been shown that mixed precision GMRES-based iterative refinement can also be used, in an approach termed GMRES-LSIR. In practice, we often encounter types of least squares problems beyond standard least squares, including weighted least squares (WLS), min_x|D^{1/2}(b-Ax)|_2, where D^{1/2} is a diagonal matrix of weights. In this paper, we discuss a mixed precision FGMRES-WLSIR algorithm for solving WLS problems using two different preconditioners.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

We revisit the well-studied problem of approximating a matrix product, A^TB, based on small space sketches S(A) and S(B) of A in R^{n times d} and Bin R^{n times m}. We are interested in the setting where the sketches must be computed independently of each other, except for the use of a shared random seed. We prove that, when A and B are sparse, methods based on coordinated random sampling can outperform classical linear sketching approaches, like Johnson-Lindenstrauss Projection or CountSketch. For example, to obtain Frobenius norm error epsilon|A|_F|B|_F, coordinated sampling requires sketches of size O(s/epsilon^2) when A and B have at most s leq d,m non-zeros per row. In contrast, linear sketching leads to sketches of size O(d/epsilon^2) and O(m/epsilon^2) for A and B. We empirically evaluate our approach on two applications: 1) distributed linear regression in databases, a problem motivated by tasks like dataset discovery and augmentation, and 2) approximating attention matrices in transformer-based language models. In both cases, our sampling algorithms yield an order of magnitude improvement over linear sketching.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality correct solutions from advanced models, neglecting the value contained in error data, potentially hindering the model's reflective ability. Though some studies attempt to leverage error data, they often involve complex mechanisms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore error nodes. In this work, we propose to enhance LLMs' reasoning ability by Learning from Errors for Mathematical Advancement (LEMMA). LEMMA constructs data consisting of an incorrect solution with an erroneous step and a reflection connection to a correct solution for fine-tuning. Specifically, we systematically analyze the model-generated error types and introduce an error-type grounded mistake augmentation method to collect diverse and representative errors. Correct solutions are either from fixing the errors or generating a fresh start. Through a model-aware smooth reflection connection, the erroneous solution is transferred to the correct one. By fine-tuning on the constructed dataset, the model is able to self-correct errors autonomously within the generation process without relying on external critique models. Experimental results demonstrate that LEMMA achieves significant performance improvements over other strong baselines.

Motivated by the problem of fast processing of attention matrices, we study fast algorithms for computing matrix-vector products for asymmetric Gaussian Kernel matrices Kin R^{ntimes n}. K's columns are indexed by a set of n keys k_1,k_2ldots, k_nin R^d, rows by a set of n queries q_1,q_2,ldots,q_nin R^d , and its i,j entry is K_{ij} = e^{-|q_i-k_j|_2^2/2sigma^2} for some bandwidth parameter sigma>0. Given a vector xin R^n and error parameter epsilon>0, our task is to output a yin R^n such that |Kx-y|_2leq epsilon |x|_2 in time subquadratic in n and linear in d. Our algorithms rely on the following modelling assumption about the matrices K: the sum of the entries of K scales linearly in n, as opposed to worst case quadratic growth. We validate this assumption experimentally, for Gaussian kernel matrices encountered in various settings such as fast attention computation in LLMs. We obtain the first subquadratic-time algorithm that works under this assumption, for unrestricted vectors.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

Generating 2-by-2 unitary matrices in floating-precision arithmetic is a delicate task. One way to reduce the accumulation error is to use less floating-point operations to compute each of the entries in the 2-by-2 unitary matrix. This paper shows an algorithm that reduces the number of operations to compute the entries of a Givens rotation. Overall, the new algorithm has more operations in total when compared to algorithms in different releases of LAPACK, but less operations per entry. Numerical tests show that the new algorithm is more accurate on average.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various domains. Math Word Problems (MWPs) serve as a crucial benchmark for evaluating LLMs' reasoning abilities. While most research primarily focuses on improving accuracy, it often neglects understanding and addressing the underlying patterns of errors. Current error classification methods rely on static and predefined categories, which limit their ability to capture the full spectrum of error patterns in mathematical reasoning. To enable systematic error analysis, we collect error samples from 15 different LLMs of varying sizes across four distinct MWP datasets using multiple sampling strategies. Based on this extensive collection, we introduce MWPES-300K, a comprehensive dataset containing 304,865 error samples that cover diverse error patterns and reasoning paths. To reduce human bias and enable fine-grained analysis of error patterns, we propose a novel framework for automated dynamic error classification in mathematical reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that dataset characteristics significantly shape error patterns, which evolve from basic to complex manifestations as model capabilities increase. With deeper insights into error patterns, we propose error-aware prompting that incorporates common error patterns as explicit guidance, leading to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning performance.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Recently, the study of linear misspecified bandits has generated intriguing implications of the hardness of learning in bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). In particular, Du et al. (2020) show that even if a learner is given linear features in R^d that approximate the rewards in a bandit or RL with a uniform error of varepsilon, searching for an O(varepsilon)-optimal action requires pulling at least Omega(exp(d)) queries. Furthermore, Lattimore et al. (2020) show that a degraded O(varepsilond)-optimal solution can be learned within poly(d/varepsilon) queries. Yet it is unknown whether a structural assumption on the ground-truth parameter, such as sparsity, could break the varepsilond barrier. In this paper, we address this question by showing that algorithms can obtain O(varepsilon)-optimal actions by querying O(varepsilon^{-s}d^s) actions, where s is the sparsity parameter, removing the exp(d)-dependence. We then establish information-theoretical lower bounds, i.e., Omega(exp(s)), to show that our upper bound on sample complexity is nearly tight if one demands an error O(s^{delta}varepsilon) for 0<delta<1. For deltageq 1, we further show that poly(s/varepsilon) queries are possible when the linear features are "good" and even in general settings. These results provide a nearly complete picture of how sparsity can help in misspecified bandit learning and provide a deeper understanding of when linear features are "useful" for bandit and reinforcement learning with misspecification.

Machine learning models can make critical errors that are easily hidden within vast amounts of data. Such errors often run counter to rules based on human intuition. However, rules based on human knowledge are challenging to scale or to even formalize. We thereby seek to infer statistical rules from the data and quantify the extent to which a model has learned them. We propose a framework SQRL that integrates logic-based methods with statistical inference to derive these rules from a model's training data without supervision. We further show how to adapt models at test time to reduce rule violations and produce more coherent predictions. SQRL generates up to 300K rules over datasets from vision, tabular, and language settings. We uncover up to 158K violations of those rules by state-of-the-art models for classification, object detection, and data imputation. Test-time adaptation reduces these violations by up to 68.7% with relative performance improvement up to 32%. SQRL is available at https://github.com/DebugML/sqrl.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

We study linear contextual bandits in the misspecified setting, where the expected reward function can be approximated by a linear function class up to a bounded misspecification level zeta>0. We propose an algorithm based on a novel data selection scheme, which only selects the contextual vectors with large uncertainty for online regression. We show that, when the misspecification level zeta is dominated by tilde O (Delta / d) with Delta being the minimal sub-optimality gap and d being the dimension of the contextual vectors, our algorithm enjoys the same gap-dependent regret bound tilde O (d^2/Delta) as in the well-specified setting up to logarithmic factors. In addition, we show that an existing algorithm SupLinUCB (Chu et al., 2011) can also achieve a gap-dependent constant regret bound without the knowledge of sub-optimality gap Delta. Together with a lower bound adapted from Lattimore et al. (2020), our result suggests an interplay between misspecification level and the sub-optimality gap: (1) the linear contextual bandit model is efficiently learnable when zeta leq tilde O(Delta / d); and (2) it is not efficiently learnable when zeta geq tilde Omega({Delta} / {d}). Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate our theoretical results.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

Advanced applied mathematics problems are underrepresented in existing Large Language Model (LLM) benchmark datasets. To address this, we introduce HARDMath, a dataset inspired by a graduate course on asymptotic methods, featuring challenging applied mathematics problems that require analytical approximation techniques. These problems demand a combination of mathematical reasoning, computational tools, and subjective judgment, making them difficult for LLMs. Our framework auto-generates a large number of problems with solutions validated against numerical ground truths. We evaluate both open- and closed-source LLMs on HARDMath-mini, a sub-sampled test set of 366 problems, as well as on 40 word problems formulated in applied science contexts. Even leading closed-source models like GPT-4 achieve only 43.8% overall accuracy with few-shot Chain-of-Thought prompting, and all models demonstrate significantly lower performance compared to results on existing mathematics benchmark datasets. We additionally conduct a detailed error analysis to gain insights into the failure cases of LLMs. These results demonstrate limitations of current LLM performance on advanced graduate-level applied math problems and underscore the importance of datasets like HARDMath to advance mathematical abilities of LLMs.

This work provides a nonasymptotic error analysis of quantum Krylov algorithms based on real-time evolutions, subject to generic errors in the outputs of the quantum circuits. We prove upper and lower bounds on the resulting ground state energy estimates, and the error associated to the upper bound is linear in the input error rates. This resolves a misalignment between known numerics, which exhibit approximately linear error scaling, and prior theoretical analysis, which only provably obtained scaling with the error rate to the power 2{3}. Our main technique is to express generic errors in terms of an effective target Hamiltonian studied in an effective Krylov space. These results provide a theoretical framework for understanding the main features of quantum Krylov errors.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

We discuss the numerical solution of initial value problems for varepsilon^2,varphi''+a(x),varphi=0 in the highly oscillatory regime, i.e., with a(x)>0 and 0<varepsilonll 1. We analyze and implement an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz. The resulting approximation error is of magnitude O(varepsilon^{N}) where N refers to the truncation order of the underlying asymptotic series. When the optimal truncation order N_{opt} is chosen, the error behaves like O(varepsilon^{-2}exp(-cvarepsilon^{-1})) with some c>0.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic method used to round numbers to floating-point and fixed-point representations. In length n summation, the worst-case error of SR grows as n with high probability, unlike for standard modes, like round-to-nearest (RN), which grows as n. For this reason, the former is increasingly employed in large-scale, low-precision computations as an RN alternative. Additionally, SR alleviates stagnation, whereby relatively small summands are completely rounded off and do not contribute to the sum. We provide an update to [Croci et al., Roy. Soc. Open Sci. 9.3 (2022), pp. 1-25], a survey which discusses the development and use of SR between 1949 and 2022, citing over 100 references. Since then, there has been a surge of new research, and this update covers almost four years of further progress in applying, analysing, and implementing SR. Our main focus is limited-precision stochastic rounding, a new variant that fixes the precision of the random numbers used. We provide insights into industrial and numerical analysis activities surrounding SR, highlighting the next possible steps in making this rounding mode more widely available in hardware.

The high computational costs of large language models (LLMs) have led to a flurry of research on LLM compression, via methods such as quantization, sparsification, or structured pruning. A new frontier in this area is given by dynamic, non-uniform compression methods, which adjust the compression levels (e.g., sparsity) per-block or even per-layer in order to minimize accuracy loss, while guaranteeing a global compression threshold. Yet, current methods rely on heuristics for identifying the "importance" of a given layer towards the loss, based on assumptions such as error monotonicity, i.e. that the end-to-end model compression error is proportional to the sum of layer-wise errors. In this paper, we revisit this area, and propose a new and general approach for dynamic compression that is provably optimal in a given input range. We begin from the motivating observation that, in general, error monotonicity does not hold for LLMs: compressed models with lower sum of per-layer errors can perform worse than models with higher error sums. To address this, we propose a new general evolutionary framework for dynamic LLM compression called EvoPress, which has provable convergence, and low sample and evaluation complexity. We show that these theoretical guarantees lead to highly competitive practical performance for dynamic compression of Llama, Mistral and Phi models. Via EvoPress, we set new state-of-the-art results across all compression approaches: structural pruning (block/layer dropping), unstructured sparsity, as well as quantization with dynamic bitwidths. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/EvoPress.

The commitment to single-precision floating-point arithmetic is widespread in the deep learning community. To evaluate whether this commitment is justified, the influence of computing precision (single and double precision) on the optimization performance of the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method (a second-order optimization algorithm) and RMSprop (a first-order algorithm) has been investigated. Tests of neural networks with one to five fully connected hidden layers and moderate or strong nonlinearity with up to 4 million network parameters have been optimized for Mean Square Error (MSE). The training tasks have been set up so that their MSE minimum was known to be zero. Computing experiments have disclosed that single-precision can keep up (with superlinear convergence) with double-precision as long as line search finds an improvement. First-order methods such as RMSprop do not benefit from double precision. However, for moderately nonlinear tasks, CG is clearly superior. For strongly nonlinear tasks, both algorithm classes find only solutions fairly poor in terms of mean square error as related to the output variance. CG with double floating-point precision is superior whenever the solutions have the potential to be useful for the application goal.

Recent works have shown a reduction from contextual bandits to online regression under a realizability assumption [Foster and Rakhlin, 2020, Foster and Krishnamurthy, 2021]. In this work, we investigate the use of neural networks for such online regression and associated Neural Contextual Bandits (NeuCBs). Using existing results for wide networks, one can readily show a {O}(T) regret for online regression with square loss, which via the reduction implies a {O}(K T^{3/4}) regret for NeuCBs. Departing from this standard approach, we first show a O(log T) regret for online regression with almost convex losses that satisfy QG (Quadratic Growth) condition, a generalization of the PL (Polyak-\L ojasiewicz) condition, and that have a unique minima. Although not directly applicable to wide networks since they do not have unique minima, we show that adding a suitable small random perturbation to the network predictions surprisingly makes the loss satisfy QG with unique minima. Based on such a perturbed prediction, we show a {O}(log T) regret for online regression with both squared loss and KL loss, and subsequently convert these respectively to mathcal{O}(KT) and mathcal{O}(KL^* + K) regret for NeuCB, where L^* is the loss of the best policy. Separately, we also show that existing regret bounds for NeuCBs are Omega(T) or assume i.i.d. contexts, unlike this work. Finally, our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that our algorithms, especially the one based on KL loss, persistently outperform existing algorithms.

Large pre-trained models (LPMs), such as large language models, have become ubiquitous and are employed in many applications. These models are often adapted to a desired domain or downstream task through a fine-tuning stage. This paper proposes SQFT, an end-to-end solution for low-precision sparse parameter-efficient fine-tuning of LPMs, allowing for effective model manipulation in resource-constrained environments. Additionally, an innovative strategy enables the merging of sparse weights with low-rank adapters without losing sparsity and accuracy, overcoming the limitations of previous approaches. SQFT also addresses the challenge of having quantized weights and adapters with different numerical precisions, enabling merging in the desired numerical format without sacrificing accuracy. Multiple adaptation scenarios, models, and comprehensive sparsity levels demonstrate the effectiveness of SQFT. Models and code are available at https://github.com/IntelLabs/Hardware-Aware-Automated-Machine-Learning.

Existing certified training methods can only train models to be robust against a certain perturbation type (e.g. l_infty or l_2). However, an l_infty certifiably robust model may not be certifiably robust against l_2 perturbation (and vice versa) and also has low robustness against other perturbations (e.g. geometric and patch transformation). By constructing a theoretical framework to analyze and mitigate the tradeoff, we propose the first multi-norm certified training framework CURE, consisting of several multi-norm certified training methods, to attain better union robustness when training from scratch or fine-tuning a pre-trained certified model. Inspired by our theoretical findings, we devise bound alignment and connect natural training with certified training for better union robustness. Compared with SOTA-certified training, CURE improves union robustness to 32.0% on MNIST, 25.8% on CIFAR-10, and 10.6% on TinyImagenet across different epsilon values. It leads to better generalization on a diverse set of challenging unseen geometric and patch perturbations to 6.8% and 16.0% on CIFAR-10. Overall, our contributions pave a path towards universal certified robustness.

Large Language Models (LLMs) present an intriguing avenue for exploration in the field of formal theorem proving. Nevertheless, their full potential, particularly concerning the mitigation of hallucinations and refinement through prover error messages, remains an area that has yet to be thoroughly investigated. To enhance the effectiveness of LLMs in the field, we introduce the Lyra, a new framework that employs two distinct correction mechanisms: Tool Correction (TC) and Conjecture Correction (CC). To implement Tool Correction in the post-processing of formal proofs, we leverage prior knowledge to utilize predefined prover tools (e.g., Sledgehammer) for guiding the replacement of incorrect tools. Tool Correction significantly contributes to mitigating hallucinations, thereby improving the overall accuracy of the proof. In addition, we introduce Conjecture Correction, an error feedback mechanism designed to interact with prover to refine formal proof conjectures with prover error messages. Compared to the previous refinement framework, the proposed Conjecture Correction refines generation with instruction but does not collect paired (generation, error & refinement) prompts. Our method has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on both miniF2F validation (48.0% -> 55.3%) and test (45.5% -> 51.2%). We also present 3 IMO problems solved by Lyra. We believe Tool Correction (post-process for hallucination mitigation) and Conjecture Correction (subgoal adjustment from interaction with environment) could provide a promising avenue for future research in this field.

High-quality, error-free datasets are a key ingredient in building reliable, accurate, and unbiased machine learning (ML) models. However, real world datasets often suffer from errors due to sensor malfunctions, data entry mistakes, or improper data integration across multiple sources that can severely degrade model performance. Detecting and correcting these issues typically require tailor-made solutions and demand extensive domain expertise. Consequently, automation is challenging, rendering the process labor-intensive and tedious. In this study, we investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can help alleviate the burden of manual data cleaning. We set up an experiment in which an LLM, paired with Python, is tasked with cleaning the training dataset to improve the performance of a learning algorithm without having the ability to modify the training pipeline or perform any feature engineering. We run this experiment on multiple Kaggle datasets that have been intentionally corrupted with errors. Our results show that LLMs can identify and correct erroneous entries, such as illogical values or outlier, by leveraging contextual information from other features within the same row, as well as feedback from previous iterations. However, they struggle to detect more complex errors that require understanding data distribution across multiple rows, such as trends and biases.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Large language models (LLMs) recently exhibited remarkable reasoning capabilities on solving math problems. To further improve this capability, this work proposes Learning from Mistakes (LeMa), akin to human learning processes. Consider a human student who failed to solve a math problem, he will learn from what mistake he has made and how to correct it. Mimicking this error-driven learning process, LeMa fine-tunes LLMs on mistake-correction data pairs generated by GPT-4. Specifically, we first collect inaccurate reasoning paths from various LLMs and then employ GPT-4 as a "corrector" to (1) identify the mistake step, (2) explain the reason for the mistake, and (3) correct the mistake and generate the final answer. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of LeMa: across five backbone LLMs and two mathematical reasoning tasks, LeMa consistently improves the performance compared with fine-tuning on CoT data alone. Impressively, LeMa can also benefit specialized LLMs such as WizardMath and MetaMath, achieving 85.4% pass@1 accuracy on GSM8K and 27.1% on MATH. This surpasses the SOTA performance achieved by non-execution open-source models on these challenging tasks. Our code, data and models will be publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/CodeT.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving reasoning tasks; however, even the strongest models still occasionally make reasoning mistakes. Recently, there has been active research aimed at improving reasoning accuracy, particularly by using pretrained language models to "self-correct" their mistakes via multi-round prompting. In this paper, we follow this line of work but focus on understanding the usefulness of incorporating "error-correction" data directly into the pretraining stage. This data consists of erroneous solution steps immediately followed by their corrections. Using a synthetic math dataset, we show promising results: this type of pretrain data can help language models achieve higher reasoning accuracy directly (i.e., through simple auto-regression, without multi-round prompting) compared to pretraining on the same amount of error-free data. We also delve into many details, such as (1) how this approach differs from beam search, (2) how such data can be prepared, (3) whether masking is needed on the erroneous tokens, (4) the amount of error required, (5) whether such data can be deferred to the fine-tuning stage, and many others.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

We consider the problem of accurate sparse finetuning of large language models (LLMs), that is, finetuning pretrained LLMs on specialized tasks, while inducing sparsity in their weights. On the accuracy side, we observe that standard loss-based finetuning may fail to recover accuracy, especially at high sparsities. To address this, we perform a detailed study of distillation-type losses, determining an L2-based distillation approach we term SquareHead which enables accurate recovery even at higher sparsities, across all model types. On the practical efficiency side, we show that sparse LLMs can be executed with speedups by taking advantage of sparsity, for both CPU and GPU runtimes. While the standard approach is to leverage sparsity for computational reduction, we observe that in the case of memory-bound LLMs sparsity can also be leveraged for reducing memory bandwidth. We exhibit end-to-end results showing speedups due to sparsity, while recovering accuracy, on T5 (language translation), Whisper (speech translation), and open GPT-type (MPT for text generation). For MPT text generation, we show for the first time that sparse finetuning can reach 75% sparsity without accuracy drops, provide notable end-to-end speedups for both CPU and GPU inference, and highlight that sparsity is also compatible with quantization approaches. Models and software for reproducing our results are provided in Section 6.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

We study the problem of optimizing a function under a budgeted number of evaluations. We only assume that the function is locally smooth around one of its global optima. The difficulty of optimization is measured in terms of 1) the amount of noise b of the function evaluation and 2) the local smoothness, d, of the function. A smaller d results in smaller optimization error. We come with a new, simple, and parameter-free approach. First, for all values of b and d, this approach recovers at least the state-of-the-art regret guarantees. Second, our approach additionally obtains these results while being agnostic to the values of both b and d. This leads to the first algorithm that naturally adapts to an unknown range of noise b and leads to significant improvements in a moderate and low-noise regime. Third, our approach also obtains a remarkable improvement over the state-of-the-art SOO algorithm when the noise is very low which includes the case of optimization under deterministic feedback (b=0). There, under our minimal local smoothness assumption, this improvement is of exponential magnitude and holds for a class of functions that covers the vast majority of functions that practitioners optimize (d=0). We show that our algorithmic improvement is borne out in experiments as we empirically show faster convergence on common benchmarks.

Given a K-vertex simplex in a d-dimensional space, suppose we measure n points on the simplex with noise (hence, some of the observed points fall outside the simplex). Vertex hunting is the problem of estimating the K vertices of the simplex. A popular vertex hunting algorithm is successive projection algorithm (SPA). However, SPA is observed to perform unsatisfactorily under strong noise or outliers. We propose pseudo-point SPA (pp-SPA). It uses a projection step and a denoise step to generate pseudo-points and feed them into SPA for vertex hunting. We derive error bounds for pp-SPA, leveraging on extreme value theory of (possibly) high-dimensional random vectors. The results suggest that pp-SPA has faster rates and better numerical performances than SPA. Our analysis includes an improved non-asymptotic bound for the original SPA, which is of independent interest.

The trade-off between regret and computational cost is a fundamental problem for online kernel regression, and previous algorithms worked on the trade-off can not keep optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity. In this paper, we propose two new algorithms, AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD, which can keep nearly optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity, and give sufficient conditions under which our algorithms work. Both algorithms dynamically maintain a group of nearly orthogonal basis used to approximate the kernel mapping, and keep nearly optimal regret bounds by controlling the approximate error. The number of basis depends on the approximate error and the decay rate of eigenvalues of the kernel matrix. If the eigenvalues decay exponentially, then AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD separately achieves a regret of O(L(f)) and O(d_{eff}(mu)T) at a computational complexity in O(ln^2{T}). If the eigenvalues decay polynomially with degree pgeq 1, then our algorithms keep the same regret bounds at a computational complexity in o(T) in the case of p>4 and pgeq 10, respectively. L(f) is the cumulative losses of f and d_{eff}(mu) is the effective dimension of the problem. The two regret bounds are nearly optimal and are not comparable.

We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.

We study the problem of black-box optimization of a function f of any dimension, given function evaluations perturbed by noise. The function is assumed to be locally smooth around one of its global optima, but this smoothness is unknown. Our contribution is an adaptive optimization algorithm, POO or parallel optimistic optimization, that is able to deal with this setting. POO performs almost as well as the best known algorithms requiring the knowledge of the smoothness. Furthermore, POO works for a larger class of functions than what was previously considered, especially for functions that are difficult to optimize, in a very precise sense. We provide a finite-time analysis of POO's performance, which shows that its error after n evaluations is at most a factor of sqrt(ln n) away from the error of the best known optimization algorithms using the knowledge of the smoothness.

We examine in detail the accuracy, efficiency and implementation issues that arise when a simplified code structure is employed to evaluate the partition function of the two-dimensional square Ising model on periodic lattices though repeated tensor contractions.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

This study explores enhancing grammatical error correction (GEC) through artificial error generation (AEG) using language models (LMs). Specifically, we fine-tune Llama 2-based LMs for error generation and find that this approach yields synthetic errors akin to human errors. Next, we train GEC Llama models with the help of these artificial errors and outperform previous state-of-the-art error correction models, with gains ranging between 0.8 and 6 F0.5 points across all tested languages (German, Ukrainian, and Estonian). Moreover, we demonstrate that generating errors by fine-tuning smaller sequence-to-sequence models and prompting large commercial LMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) also results in synthetic errors beneficially affecting error generation models.

Recent works have shown the benefits to LLMs from fine-tuning golden-standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales or using them as correct examples in few-shot prompting. While humans can indeed imitate correct examples, learning from our mistakes is another vital aspect of human cognition. Hence, a question naturally arises: can LLMs learn and benefit from their mistakes, especially for their reasoning? This study investigates this problem from both the prompting and model-tuning perspectives. We begin by introducing CoTErrorSet, a new benchmark with 609,432 questions, each designed with both correct and error references, and demonstrating the types and reasons for making such mistakes. To explore the effectiveness of those mistakes, we design two methods: (1) Self-rethinking prompting guides LLMs to rethink whether they have made similar previous mistakes; and (2) Mistake tuning involves finetuning models in both correct and incorrect reasoning domains, rather than only tuning models to learn ground truth in traditional methodology. We conduct a series of experiments to prove LLMs can obtain benefits from mistakes in both directions. Our two methods offer potentially cost-effective strategies by leveraging errors to enhance reasoning capabilities, which costs significantly less than creating meticulously hand-crafted golden references. We ultimately make a thorough analysis of the reasons behind LLMs' errors, which provides directions that future research needs to overcome. CoTErrorSet will be published soon on \url{https://github.com/YookiTong/Learn-from-Mistakes-CotErrorSet}.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui & al '23] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

The growing number of parameters and computational demands of large language models (LLMs) present significant challenges for their efficient deployment. Recently, there is an increasing interest in quantizing weights to extremely low precision while offsetting the resulting error with low-rank, high-precision error reconstruction terms. The combination of quantization and low-rank approximation is now popular in both adapter-based, parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods such as LoftQ and low-precision inference techniques including ZeroQuant-V2. Usually, the low-rank terms are calculated via the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the weight quantization error, minimizing the Frobenius and spectral norms of the weight approximation error. Recent methods like LQ-LoRA and LQER introduced hand-crafted heuristics to minimize errors in layer outputs (activations) rather than weights, resulting improved quantization results. However, these heuristic methods lack an analytical solution to guide the design of quantization error reconstruction terms. In this paper, we revisit this problem and formulate an analytical framework, named Quantization Error Reconstruction Analysis (QERA), and offer a closed-form solution to the problem. We show QERA benefits both existing low-precision fine-tuning and inference methods -- QERA achieves a fine-tuned accuracy gain of Δ_{acc} = 6.05% of 2-bit RoBERTa-base on GLUE compared to LoftQ; and obtains Δ_{acc} = 2.97% higher post-training quantization accuracy of 4-bit Llama-3.1-70B on average than ZeroQuant-V2 and Δ_{ppl} = - 0.28 lower perplexity on WikiText2 than LQER.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Recent success in deep learning has partially been driven by training increasingly overparametrized networks on ever larger datasets. It is therefore natural to ask: how much of the data is superfluous, which examples are important for generalization, and how do we find them? In this work, we make the striking observation that, in standard vision datasets, simple scores averaged over several weight initializations can be used to identify important examples very early in training. We propose two such scores -- the Gradient Normed (GraNd) and the Error L2-Norm (EL2N) scores -- and demonstrate their efficacy on a range of architectures and datasets by pruning significant fractions of training data without sacrificing test accuracy. In fact, using EL2N scores calculated a few epochs into training, we can prune half of the CIFAR10 training set while slightly improving test accuracy. Furthermore, for a given dataset, EL2N scores from one architecture or hyperparameter configuration generalize to other configurations. Compared to recent work that prunes data by discarding examples that are rarely forgotten over the course of training, our scores use only local information early in training. We also use our scores to detect noisy examples and study training dynamics through the lens of important examples -- we investigate how the data distribution shapes the loss surface and identify subspaces of the model's data representation that are relatively stable over training.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

We bound the excess risk of interpolating deep linear networks trained using gradient flow. In a setting previously used to establish risk bounds for the minimum ell_2-norm interpolant, we show that randomly initialized deep linear networks can closely approximate or even match known bounds for the minimum ell_2-norm interpolant. Our analysis also reveals that interpolating deep linear models have exactly the same conditional variance as the minimum ell_2-norm solution. Since the noise affects the excess risk only through the conditional variance, this implies that depth does not improve the algorithm's ability to "hide the noise". Our simulations verify that aspects of our bounds reflect typical behavior for simple data distributions. We also find that similar phenomena are seen in simulations with ReLU networks, although the situation there is more nuanced.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

The recent progress in large language models (LLMs), especially the invention of chain-of-thoughts (CoT) prompting, makes it possible to solve reasoning problems. However, even the strongest LLMs are still struggling with more complicated problems that require non-linear thinking and multi-step reasoning. In this work, we explore whether LLMs have the ability to recognize their own errors, without resorting to external resources. In particular, we investigate whether they can be used to identify individual errors within a step-by-step reasoning. To this end, we propose a zero-shot verification scheme to recognize such errors. We then use this verification scheme to improve question-answering performance, by using it to perform weighted voting on different generated answers. We test the method on three math datasets-GSM8K, MathQA, and MATH-and find that it successfully recognizes errors and, in turn, increases final predictive performance.

We analyze the stability of a class of eigensolvers that target interior eigenvalues with rational filters. We show that subspace iteration with a rational filter is robust even when an eigenvalue is near a filter's pole. These dangerous eigenvalues contribute to large round-off errors in the first iteration, but are self-correcting in later iterations. For matrices with orthogonal eigenvectors (e.g., real-symmetric or complex Hermitian), two iterations is enough to reduce round-off errors to the order of the unit-round off. In contrast, Krylov methods accelerated by rational filters with fixed poles typically fail to converge to unit round-off accuracy when an eigenvalue is close to a pole. In the context of Arnoldi with shift-and-invert enhancement, we demonstrate a simple restart strategy that recovers full precision in the target eigenpairs.

Randomized Smoothing (RS) has been proven a promising method for endowing an arbitrary image classifier with certified robustness. However, the substantial uncertainty inherent in the high-dimensional isotropic Gaussian noise imposes the curse of dimensionality on RS. Specifically, the upper bound of {ell_2} certified robustness radius provided by RS exhibits a diminishing trend with the expansion of the input dimension d, proportionally decreasing at a rate of 1/d. This paper explores the feasibility of providing {ell_2} certified robustness for high-dimensional input through the utilization of dual smoothing in the lower-dimensional space. The proposed Dual Randomized Smoothing (DRS) down-samples the input image into two sub-images and smooths the two sub-images in lower dimensions. Theoretically, we prove that DRS guarantees a tight {ell_2} certified robustness radius for the original input and reveal that DRS attains a superior upper bound on the {ell_2} robustness radius, which decreases proportionally at a rate of (1/sqrt m + 1/sqrt n ) with m+n=d. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generalizability and effectiveness of DRS, which exhibits a notable capability to integrate with established methodologies, yielding substantial improvements in both accuracy and {ell_2} certified robustness baselines of RS on the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/xiasong0501/DRS.

Bessel functions are critical in scientific computing for applications such as machine learning, protein structure modeling, and robotics. However, currently, available routines lack precision or fail for certain input ranges, such as when the order v is large, and GPU-specific implementations are limited. We address the precision limitations of current numerical implementations while dramatically improving the runtime. We propose two novel algorithms for computing the logarithm of modified Bessel functions of the first and second kinds by computing intermediate values on a logarithmic scale. Our algorithms are robust and never have issues with underflows or overflows while having relative errors on the order of machine precision, even for inputs where existing libraries fail. In C++/CUDA, our algorithms have median and maximum speedups of 45x and 6150x for GPU and 17x and 3403x for CPU, respectively, over the ranges of inputs and third-party libraries tested. Compared to SciPy, the algorithms have median and maximum speedups of 77x and 300x for GPU and 35x and 98x for CPU, respectively, over the tested inputs. The ability to robustly compute a solution and the low relative errors allow us to fit von Mises-Fisher, vMF, distributions to high-dimensional neural network features. This is, e.g., relevant for uncertainty quantification in metric learning. We obtain image feature data by processing CIFAR10 training images with the convolutional layers of a pre-trained ResNet50. We successfully fit vMF distributions to 2048-, 8192-, and 32768-dimensional image feature data using our algorithms. Our approach provides fast and accurate results while existing implementations in SciPy and mpmath fail to fit successfully. Our approach is readily implementable on GPUs, and we provide a fast open-source implementation alongside this paper.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Although large language models (LLMs) have become transformative, they still make mistakes and can explore unproductive reasoning paths. Self-correction is an important capability for a trustworthy LLM, particularly an autoregressive LLM. While LLMs can identify error in user input, they exhibit a systematic 'Self-Correction Blind Spot' - failing to correct identical error in their own outputs. To systematically study this phenomenon, we introduce Self-Correction Bench, a systematic framework to measure this phenomenon through controlled error injection at three complexity levels. Testing 14 models, we find an average 64.5% blind spot rate. We find multiple evidences that this limitation relates to training data composition: human training demonstrations predominantly show error-free responses rather than error-correction sequences, unlike RL-trained models that learn error correction through outcome feedback. Remarkably, simply appending "Wait" reduces blind spots by 89.3%, suggesting that the capability exists but requires activation. Our work highlights a critical limitation in current LLMs and offers potential avenues for improving their reliability and trustworthiness.

We propose Zero-Error Horizon (ZEH) for trustworthy LLMs, which represents the maximum range that a model can solve without any errors. While ZEH itself is simple, we demonstrate that evaluating the ZEH of state-of-the-art LLMs yields abundant insights. For example, by evaluating the ZEH of GPT-5.2, we found that GPT-5.2 cannot even compute the parity of a short string like 11000, and GPT-5.2 cannot determine whether the parentheses in ((((()))))) are balanced. This is surprising given the excellent capabilities of GPT-5.2. The fact that LLMs make mistakes on such simple problems serves as an important lesson when applying LLMs to safety-critical domains. By applying ZEH to Qwen2.5 and conducting detailed analysis, we found that while ZEH correlates with accuracy, the detailed behaviors differ, and ZEH provides clues about the emergence of algorithmic capabilities. Finally, while computing ZEH incurs significant computational cost, we discuss how to mitigate this cost by achieving up to one order of magnitude speedup using tree structures and online softmax.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

Chinchilla Approach 2 is among the most widely used methods for fitting neural scaling laws. Its parabolic approximation introduces systematic biases in compute-optimal allocation estimates, even on noise-free synthetic data. Applied to published Llama 3 IsoFLOP data at open frontier compute scales, these biases imply a parameter underallocation corresponding to 6.5% of the 3.8times10^{25} FLOP training budget and \1.4M (90% CI: 412K-\2.9M) in unnecessary compute at 50% H100 MFU. Simulated multimodal model misallocations show even greater opportunity costs due to higher loss surface asymmetry. Three sources of this error are examined: IsoFLOP sampling grid width (Taylor approximation accuracy), uncentered IsoFLOP sampling, and loss surface asymmetry (α\neq β$). Chinchilla Approach 3 largely eliminates these biases but is often regarded as less data-efficient, numerically unstable, prone to local minima, and harder to implement. Each concern is shown to be unfounded or addressable, especially when the partially linear structure of the objective is exploited via Variable Projection, enabling unbiased inference on all five loss surface parameters through a two-dimensional optimization that is well-conditioned, analytically differentiable, and amenable to dense, or even exhaustive, grid search. It may serve as a more convenient replacement for Approach 2 or a more scalable alternative for adaptations of Approach 3 to richer scaling law formulations.

Reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) often suffers from instability due to the numerical mismatch between the training and inference policies. While prior work has attempted to mitigate this issue through algorithmic corrections or engineering alignments, we show that its root cause lies in the floating point precision itself. The widely adopted BF16, despite its large dynamic range, introduces large rounding errors that breaks the consistency between training and inference. In this work, we demonstrate that simply reverting to FP16 effectively eliminates this mismatch. The change is simple, fully supported by modern frameworks with only a few lines of code change, and requires no modification to the model architecture or learning algorithm. Our results suggest that using FP16 uniformly yields more stable optimization, faster convergence, and stronger performance across diverse tasks, algorithms and frameworks. We hope these findings motivate a broader reconsideration of precision trade-offs in RL fine-tuning.

While self-correction has shown promise in improving LLM outputs in terms of style and quality (e.g. Chen et al., 2023; Madaan et al., 2023), recent attempts to self-correct logical or reasoning errors often cause correct answers to become incorrect, resulting in worse performances overall (Huang et al., 2023). In this paper, we break down the self-correction process into two core components: mistake finding and output correction. For mistake finding, we release BIG-Bench Mistake, a dataset of logical mistakes in Chain-of-Thought reasoning traces. We provide benchmark numbers for several state-of-the-art LLMs, and demonstrate that LLMs generally struggle with finding logical mistakes. For output correction, we propose a backtracking method which provides large improvements when given information on mistake location. We construe backtracking as a lightweight alternative to reinforcement learning methods, and show that it remains effective with a reward model at 60-70% accuracy.

Large language models (LLMs) possess impressive linguistic capabilities but often fail to faithfully retain factual knowledge, leading to hallucinations and unreliable outputs. Understanding LLMs' knowledge deficiencies by exhaustively evaluating against full-scale knowledge bases is computationally prohibitive, especially for closed-weight models. We propose stochastic error ascent (SEA), a scalable and efficient framework for discovering knowledge deficiencies (errors) in closed-weight LLMs under a strict query budget. Rather than naively probing all knowledge candidates, SEA formulates error discovery as a stochastic optimization process: it iteratively retrieves new high-error candidates by leveraging the semantic similarity to previously observed failures. To further enhance search efficiency and coverage, SEA employs hierarchical retrieval across document and paragraph levels, and constructs a relation directed acyclic graph to model error propagation and identify systematic failure modes. Empirically, SEA uncovers 40.7x more knowledge errors than Automated Capability Discovery and 26.7% more than AutoBencher, while reducing the cost-per-error by 599x and 9x, respectively. Human evaluation confirms the high quality of generated questions, while ablation and convergence analyses validate the contribution of each component in SEA. Further analysis on the discovered errors reveals correlated failure patterns across LLM families and recurring deficits, highlighting the need for better data coverage and targeted fine-tuning in future LLM development.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

Nearly all practical neural models for classification are trained using cross-entropy loss. Yet this ubiquitous choice is supported by little theoretical or empirical evidence. Recent work (Hui & Belkin, 2020) suggests that training using the (rescaled) square loss is often superior in terms of the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose the "squentropy" loss, which is the sum of two terms: the cross-entropy loss and the average square loss over the incorrect classes. We provide an extensive set of experiments on multi-class classification problems showing that the squentropy loss outperforms both the pure cross entropy and rescaled square losses in terms of the classification accuracy. We also demonstrate that it provides significantly better model calibration than either of these alternative losses and, furthermore, has less variance with respect to the random initialization. Additionally, in contrast to the square loss, squentropy loss can typically be trained using exactly the same optimization parameters, including the learning rate, as the standard cross-entropy loss, making it a true "plug-and-play" replacement. Finally, unlike the rescaled square loss, multiclass squentropy contains no parameters that need to be adjusted.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

The lottery ticket hypothesis (LTH) has increased attention to pruning neural networks at initialization. We study this problem in the linear setting. We show that finding a sparse mask at initialization is equivalent to the sketching problem introduced for efficient matrix multiplication. This gives us tools to analyze the LTH problem and gain insights into it. Specifically, using the mask found at initialization, we bound the approximation error of the pruned linear model at the end of training. We theoretically justify previous empirical evidence that the search for sparse networks may be data independent. By using the sketching perspective, we suggest a generic improvement to existing algorithms for pruning at initialization, which we show to be beneficial in the data-independent case.

Sublinear time complexity is required by the massively parallel computation (MPC) model. Breaking dynamic programs into a set of sparse dynamic programs that can be divided, solved, and merged in sublinear time. The rectangle escape problem (REP) is defined as follows: For n axis-aligned rectangles inside an axis-aligned bounding box B, extend each rectangle in only one of the four directions: up, down, left, or right until it reaches B and the density k is minimized, where k is the maximum number of extensions of rectangles to the boundary that pass through a point inside bounding box B. REP is NP-hard for k>1. If the rectangles are points of a grid (or unit squares of a grid), the problem is called the square escape problem (SEP) and it is still NP-hard. We give a 2-approximation algorithm for SEP with kgeq2 with time complexity O(n^{3/2}k^2). This improves the time complexity of existing algorithms which are at least quadratic. Also, the approximation ratio of our algorithm for kgeq 3 is 3/2 which is tight. We also give a 8-approximation algorithm for REP with time complexity O(nlog n+nk) and give a MPC version of this algorithm for k=O(1) which is the first parallel algorithm for this problem.

When deploying large language models (LLMs), it is important to ensure that these models are not only capable, but also reliable. Many benchmarks have been created to track LLMs' growing capabilities, however there has been no similar focus on measuring their reliability. To understand the potential ramifications of this gap, we investigate how well current benchmarks quantify model reliability. We find that pervasive label errors can compromise these evaluations, obscuring lingering model failures and hiding unreliable behavior. Motivated by this gap in the evaluation of reliability, we then propose the concept of so-called platinum benchmarks, i.e., benchmarks carefully curated to minimize label errors and ambiguity. As a first attempt at constructing such benchmarks, we revise examples from fifteen existing popular benchmarks. We evaluate a wide range of models on these platinum benchmarks and find that, indeed, frontier LLMs still exhibit failures on simple tasks such as elementary-level math word problems. Analyzing these failures further reveals previously unidentified patterns of problems on which frontier models consistently struggle. We provide code at https://github.com/MadryLab/platinum-benchmarks

We present GSM-MC, a multiple-choice (MC) dataset constructed by collecting answers and incorrect predictions on GSM8K from 60 open-source models. Through extensive experiments, we show that LLMs' performance on the MC version of this popular benchmark is strongly correlated with their performance on the original version and is quite robust to distractor choices and option orders, while the evaluation time is reduced by a factor of up to 30. Following similar procedures, we introduce MATH-MC, constructed from MATH, and PythonIO, a new program reasoning MC dataset constructed from HumanEval and MBPP. Experimental results indicate that LLMs' performance on these MC benchmarks leaves much room for improvement. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/Geralt-Targaryen/MC-Evaluation.

Large neural networks spend most computation on floating point tensor multiplications. In this work, we find that a floating point multiplier can be approximated by one integer adder with high precision. We propose the linear-complexity multiplication L-Mul algorithm that approximates floating point number multiplication with integer addition operations. The new algorithm costs significantly less computation resource than 8-bit floating point multiplication but achieves higher precision. Compared to 8-bit floating point multiplications, the proposed method achieves higher precision but consumes significantly less bit-level computation. Since multiplying floating point numbers requires substantially higher energy compared to integer addition operations, applying the L-Mul operation in tensor processing hardware can potentially reduce 95% energy cost by element-wise floating point tensor multiplications and 80% energy cost of dot products. We calculated the theoretical error expectation of L-Mul, and evaluated the algorithm on a wide range of textual, visual, and symbolic tasks, including natural language understanding, structural reasoning, mathematics, and commonsense question answering. Our numerical analysis experiments agree with the theoretical error estimation, which indicates that L-Mul with 4-bit mantissa achieves comparable precision as float8_e4m3 multiplications, and L-Mul with 3-bit mantissa outperforms float8_e5m2. Evaluation results on popular benchmarks show that directly applying L-Mul to the attention mechanism is almost lossless. We further show that replacing all floating point multiplications with 3-bit mantissa L-Mul in a transformer model achieves equivalent precision as using float8_e4m3 as accumulation precision in both fine-tuning and inference.

Finding optimal solution paths for combinatorial puzzles like the Rubik's Cube, sliding tile puzzles, and Lights Out remains a classical challenge in artificial intelligence. Heuristic search algorithms, such as A* , guarantee path optimality only when using an admissible heuristic-one that never overestimates the true remaining cost-to-go. Deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods like DeepCubeA train deep neural networks to approximate cost-to-go heuristics. However, standard mean-squared error (MSE) training regularly yields overestimations, violating admissibility and compromising solution optimality. In this paper, we introduce a generalizable framework for learning validation-calibrated admissible neural heuristics. We train a value network using an underestimating Admissible Bellman Operator combined with an Asymmetric Loss function to penalize overestimation. To account for residual neural function approximation errors, we propose a post-hoc calibration safety offset computed over validation scrambles. We demonstrate that our calibrated neural heuristics achieve no observed admissibility violations under the evaluation protocol and preserve path optimality in practice while reducing search node expansions by up to 83.0% on a 2 by 2 Rubik's Cube, 19.9% on a 3 by 3 Lights Out grid, and 1.9% on an 8-Puzzle compared to standard analytical baselines.

We introduce a few-shot learning framework for error detection. We show that data augmentation (a form of weak supervision) is key to training high-quality, ML-based error detection models that require minimal human involvement. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) an expressive model to learn rich representations that capture the inherent syntactic and semantic heterogeneity of errors; and (2) a data augmentation model that, given a small seed of clean records, uses dataset-specific transformations to automatically generate additional training data. Our key insight is to learn data augmentation policies from the noisy input dataset in a weakly supervised manner. We show that our framework detects errors with an average precision of ~94% and an average recall of ~93% across a diverse array of datasets that exhibit different types and amounts of errors. We compare our approach to a comprehensive collection of error detection methods, ranging from traditional rule-based methods to ensemble-based and active learning approaches. We show that data augmentation yields an average improvement of 20 F1 points while it requires access to 3x fewer labeled examples compared to other ML approaches.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

Uniform random rotations are a useful primitive in applications such as fast Johnson-Lindenstrauss embeddings, kernel approximation, communication-efficient learning, and recent AI compression pipelines, but they are computationally expensive to generate and apply in high dimensions. A common practical replacement is repeated structured random rotations built from Walsh-Hadamard transforms and random sign diagonals. Applying the structured random rotation twice has been shown empirically to be useful, but the supporting theory is still limited. In this paper we study the approximation quality achieved when using this two-block structured Hadamard rotation. Our results are both positive and negative. On the positive side, we prove that every fixed coordinate of the two-block transform converges uniformly, over all inputs, to the corresponding coordinate of a uniformly rotated vector, with an explicit Kolmogorov-distance bound of order d^{-1/5}. On the negative side, we prove an explicit lower bound on the Wasserstein distance between the full vector distributions, showing that the two-block transform is not a globally accurate surrogate for a uniform random rotation in the worst case. For the extremal input used in the lower bound, we also prove a matching asymptotic upper bound, showing that the lower-bound scale is sharp for that input. Taken together, the results identify a clear separation between one-dimensional marginal behavior, where approximation improves with dimension, and full high-dimensional geometry, where a nonvanishing discrepancy remains. This provides a partial theoretical explanation for the empirical success of structured Hadamard rotations in some algorithms, while also clarifying the limitations of treating them as drop-in replacements for true uniform random rotations.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its benefits are well understood, the situation in RL is much less clear. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the influence of network size and l_2-regularization on performance. We identify the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of visited states as a crucial factor and define over-parameterization as the regime when it is larger than one. Furthermore, we observe a double descent phenomenon, i.e., a sudden drop in performance around the parameter/state ratio of one. Leveraging random features and the lazy training regime, we study the regularized Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm in an asymptotic regime, as both the number of parameters and states go to infinity, maintaining a constant ratio. We derive deterministic limits of both the empirical and the true Mean-Squared Bellman Error (MSBE) that feature correction terms responsible for the double descent. Correction terms vanish when the l_2-regularization is increased or the number of unvisited states goes to zero. Numerical experiments with synthetic and small real-world environments closely match the theoretical predictions.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

Low-precision number formats are widely used in modern machine learning systems due to their efficiency. Accurate direction representation is key to the accuracy of vector operations. This work precisely explores the extent to which the direction of a vector can be represented by selecting its scalar elements from a common finite alphabet of a given size. This is standard practice in machine learning, where low-precision significands may be narrow-width floating-point or integer values. A geometric framework is introduced for analyzing the directional coverage of such product-structured codes. This work analytically quantifies the suboptimality gap between such product-structured codes and spherical codes for the vector as a whole, in both low and asymptotically high dimensions. Furthermore, within the product code class, it is proven that the standard formats of two's complement, fixed-point, and floating-point are suboptimal, again with quantified gap, pointing to the potential to develop new scalar number formats. Such scalar alphabets are numerically optimized across multiple block dimensions for directional coverage, including the dimension used in NVIDIA's NVFP4 format. Experimental results are presented comparing the performance of standard formats and the optimized alphabet. We find that for four bits, NVIDIA's choice of E2M1 closely approximates the optimized alphabet, providing a geometric explanation for its strong performance in low-precision machine learning workloads and an analytical understanding of the link between that superiority and block size. We provide open-source formal proofs in Lean for the theorems in this work, along with the experimental code and the optimized alphabets obtained.

Recently, given the docstring for the target problem and the target function signature, large language models (LLMs) have been used not only to generate source code, but also to generate test cases, consisting of test inputs and assertions (e.g., in the form of checking an actual output against the expected output). However, as shown by our empirical study on assertions generated by four LLMs for the HumanEval benchmark, over 62% of the generated assertions are incorrect (i.e., failed on the ground-truth problem solution). To detect incorrect assertions (given the docstring and the target function signature along with a sample of example inputs and outputs), in this paper, we propose a new approach named DeCon to effectively detect incorrect assertions via LLM-generated postconditions for the target problem (a postcondition is a predicate that must always be true just after the execution of the ground-truth problem solution). Our approach requires a small set of I/O examples (i.e., a sample of example inputs and outputs) for the target problem (e.g., the I/O examples included in the docstring for a target problem in HumanEval). We use the given I/O examples to filter out those LLM-generated postconditions that are violated by at least one given I/O example. We then use the remaining postconditions to detect incorrect assertions as those assertions that violate at least one remaining postcondition. Experimental results show that DeCon can detect averagely more than 64% (63% and 65.5% detected by GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, respectively) incorrect assertions generated by four state-of-the-art LLMs, and DeCon can also improve the effectiveness of these LLMs in code generation by 4% in terms of Pass@1. In addition, although DeCon might filter out correct assertions, the fault-finding ability of the remaining correct assertions decreases only slightly.

With Large Language Models (LLMs) being widely used across various tasks, detecting errors in their responses is increasingly crucial. However, little research has been conducted on error detection of LLM responses. Collecting error annotations on LLM responses is challenging due to the subjective nature of many NLP tasks, and thus previous research focuses on tasks of little practical value (e.g., word sorting) or limited error types (e.g., faithfulness in summarization). This work introduces ReaLMistake, the first error detection benchmark consisting of objective, realistic, and diverse errors made by LLMs. ReaLMistake contains three challenging and meaningful tasks that introduce objectively assessable errors in four categories (reasoning correctness, instruction-following, context-faithfulness, and parameterized knowledge), eliciting naturally observed and diverse errors in responses of GPT-4 and Llama 2 70B annotated by experts. We use ReaLMistake to evaluate error detectors based on 12 LLMs. Our findings show: 1) Top LLMs like GPT-4 and Claude 3 detect errors made by LLMs at very low recall, and all LLM-based error detectors perform much worse than humans. 2) Explanations by LLM-based error detectors lack reliability. 3) LLMs-based error detection is sensitive to small changes in prompts but remains challenging to improve. 4) Popular approaches to improving LLMs, including self-consistency and majority vote, do not improve the error detection performance. Our benchmark and code are provided at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/ReaLMistake.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks. However, there are increasing debates regarding whether these models truly understand and apply mathematical knowledge or merely rely on shortcuts for mathematical reasoning. One essential and frequently occurring evidence is that when the math questions are slightly changed, LLMs can behave incorrectly. This motivates us to evaluate the robustness of LLMs' math reasoning capability by testing a wide range of question variations. We introduce the adversarial grade school math (\datasetname) dataset, an extension of GSM8K augmented with various mathematical perturbations. Our experiments on 25 LLMs and 4 prompting techniques show that while LLMs exhibit different levels of math reasoning abilities, their performances are far from robust. In particular, even for problems that have been solved in GSM8K, LLMs can make mistakes when new statements are added or the question targets are altered. We also explore whether more robust performance can be achieved by composing existing prompting methods, in which we try an iterative method that generates and verifies each intermediate thought based on its reasoning goal and calculation result. Code and data are available at https://github.com/qtli/GSM-Plus.

Quantizing large language models has become a standard way to reduce their memory and computational costs. Typically, existing methods focus on breaking down the problem into individual layer-wise sub-problems, and minimizing per-layer error, measured via various metrics. Yet, this approach currently lacks theoretical justification and the metrics employed may be sub-optimal. In this paper, we present a "linearity theorem" establishing a direct relationship between the layer-wise ell_2 reconstruction error and the model perplexity increase due to quantization. This insight enables two novel applications: (1) a simple data-free LLM quantization method using Hadamard rotations and MSE-optimal grids, dubbed HIGGS, which outperforms all prior data-free approaches such as the extremely popular NF4 quantized format, and (2) an optimal solution to the problem of finding non-uniform per-layer quantization levels which match a given compression constraint in the medium-bitwidth regime, obtained by reduction to dynamic programming. On the practical side, we demonstrate improved accuracy-compression trade-offs on Llama-3.1 and 3.2-family models, as well as on Qwen-family models. Further, we show that our method can be efficiently supported in terms of GPU kernels at various batch sizes, advancing both data-free and non-uniform quantization for LLMs.

We develop a unified mathematical framework for certified Top-k attention truncation that quantifies approximation error at both the distribution and output levels. For a single attention distribution P and its Top-k truncation hat P, we show that the total-variation distance coincides with the discarded softmax tail mass and satisfies TV(P,hat P)=1-e^{-KL(hat PVert P)}, yielding sharp Top-k-specific bounds in place of generic inequalities. From this we derive non-asymptotic deterministic bounds -- from a single boundary gap through multi-gap and blockwise variants -- that control TV(P,hat P) using only the ordered logits. Using an exact head-tail decomposition, we prove that the output error factorizes as |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2=τ|μ_{tail}-μ_{head}|_2 with τ=TV(P,hat P), yielding a new head-tail diameter bound |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2leτ,diam_{H,T} and refinements linking the error to Var_P(V). Under an i.i.d. Gaussian score model s_isimmathcal N(μ,σ^2) we derive closed-form tail masses and an asymptotic rule for the minimal k_varepsilon ensuring TV(P,hat P)levarepsilon, namely k_varepsilon/napproxΦ_c(σ+Φ^{-1}(varepsilon)). Experiments on bert-base-uncased and synthetic logits confirm the predicted scaling of k_varepsilon/n and show that certified Top-k can reduce scored keys by 2-4times on average while meeting the prescribed total-variation budget.

With the rapid development of large language models (LLMs), the quality of training data has become crucial. Among the various types of training data, mathematical data plays a key role in enabling LLMs to acquire strong reasoning abilities. While high-quality open-source data is important, it is often insufficient for pre-training, necessitating the addition of synthetic math problems. However, synthetic math questions and answers can introduce inaccuracies, which may degrade both the training data and web data. Therefore, an effective method for cleaning synthetic math data is essential. In this paper, we propose the MathClean benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of math data cleaning models. The MathClean benchmark consists of 2,000 correct questions and 2,000 erroneous questions with additional 2,000 correct and erroneous answers sourced from augmented data based on GSM8K and MATH. Moreover, we also annotate error types for each question or answer, since it can assess whether models can correctly identify the error categories for future improvements. Finally, we present comprehensive evaluations using state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. Our results demonstrate that even strong models like GPT-o1 and DeepSeek-R1 perform poorly on this benchmark, highlighting the utility of MathClean. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/YuYingLi0/MathClean.

Noisy partial label learning (noisy PLL) is an important branch of weakly supervised learning. Unlike PLL where the ground-truth label must conceal in the candidate label set, noisy PLL relaxes this constraint and allows the ground-truth label may not be in the candidate label set. To address this challenging problem, most of the existing works attempt to detect noisy samples and estimate the ground-truth label for each noisy sample. However, detection errors are unavoidable. These errors can accumulate during training and continuously affect model optimization. To this end, we propose a novel framework for noisy PLL with theoretical guarantees, called ``Adjusting Label Importance Mechanism (ALIM)''. It aims to reduce the negative impact of detection errors by trading off the initial candidate set and model outputs. ALIM is a plug-in strategy that can be integrated with existing PLL approaches. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method can achieve state-of-the-art performance on noisy PLL. \textcolor[rgb]{0.93,0.0,0.47}{Our code can be found in Supplementary Material}.

Our work presents a novel angle for evaluating language models' (LMs) mathematical abilities, by investigating whether they can discern skills and concepts enabled by math content. We contribute two datasets: one consisting of 385 fine-grained descriptions of K-12 math skills and concepts, or standards, from Achieve the Core (ATC), and another of 9.9K problems labeled with these standards (MathFish). Working with experienced teachers, we find that LMs struggle to tag and verify standards linked to problems, and instead predict labels that are close to ground truth, but differ in subtle ways. We also show that LMs often generate problems that do not fully align with standards described in prompts. Finally, we categorize problems in GSM8k using math standards, allowing us to better understand why some problems are more difficult to solve for models than others.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Robustness to adversarial attack is typically evaluated with adversarial accuracy. This metric quantifies the number of points for which, given a threat model, successful adversarial perturbations cannot be found. While essential, this metric does not capture all aspects of robustness and in particular leaves out the question of how many perturbations can be found for each point. In this work we introduce an alternative approach, adversarial sparsity, which quantifies how difficult it is to find a successful perturbation given both an input point and a constraint on the direction of the perturbation. This constraint may be angular (L2 perturbations), or based on the number of pixels (Linf perturbations). We show that sparsity provides valuable insight on neural networks in multiple ways. analyzing the sparsity of existing robust models illustrates important differences between them that accuracy analysis does not, and suggests approaches for improving their robustness. When applying broken defenses effective against weak attacks but not strong ones, sparsity can discriminate between the totally ineffective and the partially effective defenses. Finally, with sparsity we can measure increases in robustness that do not affect accuracy: we show for example that data augmentation can by itself increase adversarial robustness, without using adversarial training.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

Given the rapid ascent of large language models (LLMs), we study the question: (How) can large language models help in reviewing of scientific papers or proposals? We first conduct some pilot studies where we find that (i) GPT-4 outperforms other LLMs (Bard, Vicuna, Koala, Alpaca, LLaMa, Dolly, OpenAssistant, StableLM), and (ii) prompting with a specific question (e.g., to identify errors) outperforms prompting to simply write a review. With these insights, we study the use of LLMs (specifically, GPT-4) for three tasks: 1. Identifying errors: We construct 13 short computer science papers each with a deliberately inserted error, and ask the LLM to check for the correctness of these papers. We observe that the LLM finds errors in 7 of them, spanning both mathematical and conceptual errors. 2. Verifying checklists: We task the LLM to verify 16 closed-ended checklist questions in the respective sections of 15 NeurIPS 2022 papers. We find that across 119 {checklist question, paper} pairs, the LLM had an 86.6% accuracy. 3. Choosing the "better" paper: We generate 10 pairs of abstracts, deliberately designing each pair in such a way that one abstract was clearly superior than the other. The LLM, however, struggled to discern these relatively straightforward distinctions accurately, committing errors in its evaluations for 6 out of the 10 pairs. Based on these experiments, we think that LLMs have a promising use as reviewing assistants for specific reviewing tasks, but not (yet) for complete evaluations of papers or proposals.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

Solving grid puzzles involves a significant amount of logical reasoning. Hence, it is a good domain to evaluate the reasoning capability of a model which can then guide us to improve the reasoning ability of models. However, most existing works evaluate only the final predicted answer of a puzzle, without delving into an in-depth analysis of the LLMs' reasoning chains (such as where they falter) or providing any finer metrics to evaluate them. Since LLMs may rely on simple heuristics or artifacts to predict the final answer, it is crucial to evaluate the generated reasoning chain beyond overall correctness measures, for accurately evaluating the reasoning abilities of LLMs. To this end, we first develop GridPuzzle, an evaluation dataset comprising 274 grid-based puzzles with different complexities. Second, we propose a new error taxonomy derived from manual analysis of reasoning chains from LLMs including GPT-4, Claude-3, Gemini, Mistral, and Llama-2. Then, we develop an LLM-based framework for large-scale subjective evaluation (i.e., identifying errors) and an objective metric, PuzzleEval, to evaluate the correctness of reasoning chains. Evaluating reasoning chains from LLMs leads to several interesting findings. We further show that existing prompting methods used for enhancing models' reasoning abilities do not improve performance on GridPuzzle. This highlights the importance of understanding fine-grained errors and presents a challenge for future research to enhance LLMs' puzzle-solving abilities by developing methods that address these errors. Data and source code are available at https://github.com/Mihir3009/GridPuzzle.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

While neural networks have been remarkably successful in a wide array of applications, implementing them in resource-constrained hardware remains an area of intense research. By replacing the weights of a neural network with quantized (e.g., 4-bit, or binary) counterparts, massive savings in computation cost, memory, and power consumption are attained. To that end, we generalize a post-training neural-network quantization method, GPFQ, that is based on a greedy path-following mechanism. Among other things, we propose modifications to promote sparsity of the weights, and rigorously analyze the associated error. Additionally, our error analysis expands the results of previous work on GPFQ to handle general quantization alphabets, showing that for quantizing a single-layer network, the relative square error essentially decays linearly in the number of weights -- i.e., level of over-parametrization. Our result holds across a range of input distributions and for both fully-connected and convolutional architectures thereby also extending previous results. To empirically evaluate the method, we quantize several common architectures with few bits per weight, and test them on ImageNet, showing only minor loss of accuracy compared to unquantized models. We also demonstrate that standard modifications, such as bias correction and mixed precision quantization, further improve accuracy.

We study the robust interpolation problem of arbitrary data distributions supported on a bounded space and propose a two-fold law of robustness. Robust interpolation refers to the problem of interpolating n noisy training data points in R^d by a Lipschitz function. Although this problem has been well understood when the samples are drawn from an isoperimetry distribution, much remains unknown concerning its performance under generic or even the worst-case distributions. We prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n/p) of the interpolating neural network with p parameters on arbitrary data distributions. With this result, we validate the law of robustness conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li, and Nagaraj on two-layer neural networks with polynomial weights. We then extend our result to arbitrary interpolating approximators and prove a Lipschitzness lower bound Omega(n^{1/d}) for robust interpolation. Our results demonstrate a two-fold law of robustness: i) we show the potential benefit of overparametrization for smooth data interpolation when n=poly(d), and ii) we disprove the potential existence of an O(1)-Lipschitz robust interpolating function when n=exp(omega(d)).