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1977-01-18 00:00:00
2026-05-27 00:00:00
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08c8b7429ca85379
op_fed
19770118_300_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — MR. GRAMLEY.
We've been thinking about that in terms of financial market projections.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074670+00:00
fa64e9738a57ff051b3b6476befbaa3433c1adaeb913702ce3a1c32c0e667f8a
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
0d061244d41a0a72
op_fed
19770118_31_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
The risk is the Bank of England declares itself bankrupt, and I think that risk is a minimal risk.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074619+00:00
bbdef3d283a2a96ecb5c04d269aa29d500bf725aa54c3bdae9221f52c02ce2f0
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
2771d3960c64b62d
op_fed
19770118_123_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — MR. O'CONNELL.
There has to be a publication within a framework of 30 days for comment, then a review of the comments and a simultaneous oversight review by the Administrative Conference of the United States under the terms of the statute.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.054931+00:00
c2accc20456a7d049646f45fa0830001ff522a3fff71d4bd3d41bfc2a5ef167c
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
6c2fbca8e78c0582
op_fed
19770118_544_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
Let me make this suggestion to the Committee, and then we will discuss this: that we vote on a range of 3 to 7 for M1, 7 to 11 for M2, and 4-1/4 to 5 for the federal funds rate but that the midpoint be treated asymmetrically--that is at 4-3/4 rather than 4-5/8.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069665+00:00
f59f9d456fbd5ef4c1ad8e770151ce04cbfc2d1ca6f282175900a8b899a53da0
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
cbae15867db6c4f9
op_fed
19770118_233_10
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — MR. GRAMLEY.
That is the sort of thing we need to keep in mind and keep watching for over the next few months.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074649+00:00
90c9c05284490ec783a4a0b980835d16bf66d734a1b161b90c38b02d09a796bb
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
ccad252cfdf0f3c0
op_fed
19770118_487_10
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
I would say that, for the coming month, it would be an unacceptable increase.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.061492+00:00
d6b0df34a42a87a8c2b8dded88c888ef28e2c5b0b690b962d8b270fce7880be8
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
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train
e7a75f1d018ca4f9
op_fed
19770118_107_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
The only way I've ever understood the whole swap network is in the language of loans.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.061452+00:00
e4aa71175503467bb6fc6dbdf77c4e167a592a94de631eb98245e5a0d2ebd6c4
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
e831b3abe212284b
op_fed
19770118_143_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-01-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19770118 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056784+00:00
b9af0dda0d428e4f0690ab4dcf98c7a8ad016f9d102201be7b444eaf342d76cb
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
56043aaf8b5856a0
op_fed
19770215_262_7
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-02-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19770215 — MR. KIMBREL.
I think that would serve us better for this immediate period.
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.054667+00:00
c438931d5105b32a8014137dfb3544e908dd0e2a82df176cd659433a655ffd3d
peer_reviewed
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dovish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "dovish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
b07574e29a034681
op_fed
19770215_381_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-02-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19770215 — MR. PARTEE.
Unfortunately, the people who comment on this don't recognize this--it stirs up concerns.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.061516+00:00
96d99bd5fd6a76f44fb0e177756f04c1d7f8bb72c7aefda266bcb50f84702e94
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
8c06253ab625c27d
op_fed
19770315_189_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-03-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19770315 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
If not, this is as good a time as any to break for coffee.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065570+00:00
bd3ecf1b046e19f553c9dc108bf78b543849079ad07960dde39bd3114f788b73
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
aeb28cca45270878
op_fed
19770315_301_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-03-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19770315 — MR. MAYO.
We have in Chicago a development, which is still in its infancy, to encourage the development of a bankers' acceptances market in Chicago which would be, in some phases at least, independent of the market in New York; maybe independent isn't the right word, but it would be able to stand on its own feet.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065600+00:00
27fdac8e289b896b1512e930bcdc01a2f0595c02c1fcb62d76d0c7bf51e4d5f6
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
df953b1adbd9b059
op_fed
19770315_65_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-03-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19770315 — MR. BALLES.
I'd like to come back to Jerry's remarks on productivity and unit labor costs and ask him a question.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069696+00:00
fc783f83a94a3497737c205e5c549811330f9e090f4df11afb7e4172e82207bc
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
afa9853f1b21e285
op_fed
19770419_61_5
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-04-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770419 — MR. PARTEE.
I have not looked at it in detail.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069717+00:00
437fe9c22c6c0eb7d572ace3f5d9f259ed3946af8eb113c7d09d1497f2d39dcc
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
ced9e499f10f8f42
op_fed
19770419_276_12
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-04-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770419 — MR. GARDNER.
We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056823+00:00
2052b643159a242362069269c8c5038522d292c0d188f6f489268188902896a9
peer_reviewed
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hawkish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "hawkish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
e941f30942a5c0d5
op_fed
19770419_157_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-04-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770419 — MR. PARTEE.
If the GNP pattern, as well as the projection, is right, [unintelligible] so much investment, so much consumption, why of course, the whole thing isn't generally consistent and it tends to break up.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065629+00:00
5a9ff4a9a8567d5d14eb5efdd071605fb2a2a11f4e275d935525e0a4ec3dafc1
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
574cebe42a596211
op_fed
19770517_46_3
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-05-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19770517 — MR. ROOS.
And the farmer's ability to repay in many instances is limited by the income that he can earn off of working that land.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.053928+00:00
47e8ca61dd73e9cb89559907c681c9aa9d45bbd76ccdbec6d82c1d34324f8326
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
8b49fc1a60c82b82
op_fed
19770517_244_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-05-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19770517 — MR. MORRIS.
Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal?
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056369+00:00
713c99486c7d2d10d9fb5110b0c63d9604448da46c567d69da49af879403f8c4
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
ff2f3f4f8dda26c6
op_fed
19770517_246_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-05-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19770517 — MR. MORRIS.
Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056856+00:00
1fba9df417eb4224ebac068810b9aefd52cb754013d028f2e09cab3f47d4451e
peer_reviewed
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hawkish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "hawkish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
4dfb9007bd09ed60
op_fed
19770621_203_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-06-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19770621 — MR. WINN.
Normally, you would think that would occur rather rapidly.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.061536+00:00
8ee71eef9a34bac2a287835ecb1e37518fc962f30b1874396701e79e416b3da6
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
703bd2e2c0250114
op_fed
19770621_411_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-06-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19770621 — MR. O'CONNELL.
Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056880+00:00
0b8c50e7b73ac930894ba2b149088aa96f9efa85b1cdc7ff2dfdadd53702b8c8
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
7f803ac2baf0fb62
op_fed
19770621_49_9
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1977-06-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19770621 — MR. PARTEE.
And if you look at the hourly earnings index, why it seems to me the performance is really pretty good.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-06-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19770621 — MR. HOLMES.
We can make a big issue of this, and maybe we should make an issue--I have in one or two cases, but--
unlabeled
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1977-07-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770719 — MR. STERNLIGHT.
So, from that standpoint, if there were any significant rule [unintelligible], the midpoint would probably be [unintelligible] making its presence in the market early.
unlabeled
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1977-07-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770719 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
That's the best contribution they can make now.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-07-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770719 — MR. BAUGHMAN.
I'm sorry, I can't hear you.
unlabeled
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1977-07-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770719 — MR. ZEISEL.
But on the negative side, we've had an extremely rapid recovery recently in residential construction activity.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-07-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770719 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
Any other questions or comment.
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1977-07-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19770719 — MR. HOLMES.
It seems to me that one of the reasons that investment demand has been so sluggish in Germany
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1977-08-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19770816 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1.
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mit
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1977-08-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19770816 — MR. ROOS.
In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period.
unlabeled
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1977-08-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19770816 — MR. COYNE.
So it seemed to be just a perfectly legitimate inquiry which was satisfied.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-08-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19770816 — MR. MAYO.
Oh, I understand that, Steve.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-08-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19770816 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
I think that's what Mr. Morris meant to say--
unlabeled
mit
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1977-08-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19770816 — MR. EASTBURN.
A couple meetings ago I reported on the sentiment of businessmen in our area, which of course is not the most vigorous area in the country, and it's one of concern and remains one of concern.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-09-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19770920 — MR. MORRIS.
So we're marginally more pessimistic.
unlabeled
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1977-09-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19770920 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
And you know, one of the reasons for a dialogue such as we have is that we see the world differently.
unlabeled
mit
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. PARDEE.
The Treasury's thinking at this stage is that it won't.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.074816+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. ZEISEL.
I certainly hope so.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.061618+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. WINN.
Now does this represent a shift in consumer preference towards lower prices, or [a decision that] a [used] car that only goes 20,000 more miles doesn't really need a 50,000-mile tire?
unlabeled
mit
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.057059+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. MORRIS.
Now this may conceivably be the exception, that this bulge is one that we won't regret, that this bulge may, as Steve suggests, be over.
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mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.078948+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. KICHLINE.
In our flow of funds forecast, we have the thrift institutions actually liquidating liquid assets to fund their outstanding commitments in the shorter run and relying quite a bit more heavily on Home Loan Bank borrowing.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.061564+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. TRUMAN.
Yours may be a judgment, mine's a guess.
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mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.069841+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
But I've got to go to another meeting, and I believe the Bank Presidents have scheduled a meeting to start at 5:00.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056951+00:00
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1977-10-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19771018 — MR. PARTEE.
I look at the economy and I wonder whether it's the kind of an economy in which we want to have a substantial rise in interest rates, a substantial shift in the flow of funds away from the thrifts and the banks into the market, and the characteristics of a tightening in the old terms, a tightening financial environment...
dovish
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mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.057018+00:00
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1977-11-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19771115 — MR. BLACK.
I just mean over the future.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057082+00:00
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1977-11-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19771115 — MR. O'CONNELL.
President Baughman, the language in the Court of Appeals, I think, should be read much like in a parental circumstance, where mother says, "Ask your father.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069880+00:00
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1977-11-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19771115 — MR. PARTEE.
It's not usually a case where you're moving in one direction and then another; why, that really is more sensitive, in a way, than the meeting itself.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.078973+00:00
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1977-12-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19771220 — MR. PARTEE.
But the exchange rate is taken in for financial assets, and therefore they will have appreciation.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056232+00:00
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1977-12-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19771220 — MR. MAYO.
And we will be feeling our way.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074839+00:00
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1977-12-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19771220 — MR. O'CONNELL.
I believe that would be fairly read as a denial of the request for the information sought.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.054535+00:00
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1978-01-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19780117 — MR. PARTEE.
You might expect that we would get M1 growth of as much as 10 percent in the quarter.
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mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.079009+00:00
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1978-01-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19780117 — CHAIRMAN BURNS.
I've had a similar meeting with Mr. Reuss.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.057104+00:00
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1978-01-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19780117 — VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057141+00:00
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1978-01-17
FOMC meeting transcript 19780117 — MR. LILLY.
So we are back where we've been right along and that's dependent on the consumer.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069903+00:00
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1978-02-28
FOMC meeting transcript 19780228 — MR. WILLES.
[Inflation] does seem to be a concern that more of our people have, and for that reason the major difference we have with the staff forecast is on their expectation of inflation.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056753+00:00
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1978-02-28
FOMC meeting transcript 19780228 — MR. WALLICH.
I move [that the minutes be] approved.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065772+00:00
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1978-02-28
FOMC meeting transcript 19780228 — MR. PARDEE.
It=s that kind of credibility that we need; then we don=t have to operate on a big scale.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065808+00:00
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1978-02-28
FOMC meeting transcript 19780228 — MR. HOLMES.
Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach] that.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057170+00:00
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1978-02-28
FOMC meeting transcript 19780228 — MR. PARTEE.
And there the problem is to convince them rather than just to assert it.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.079038+00:00
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op_fed
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1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
[the repayment period] a little and in return, I hope, we'd get the Bundesbank's agreement for direct purchases as necessary in paying this debt off.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065832+00:00
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1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — MR. JACKSON.
Mr. Chairman, I feel very strongly about wanting the Treasury to share the burdens of operations on our part abroad.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065869+00:00
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057238+00:00
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op_fed
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1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — MR. WILLES.
What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057266+00:00
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meeting_transcript
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1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — MR. EASTBURN.
This gives me some concern because we haven't come out of it.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079064+00:00
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1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057199+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-03-21
FOMC meeting transcript 19780321 — MR. WALLICH.
If you contemplate what Humphrey-Hawkins implies, if anybody abroad thought this would be taken seriously, we would be disavowing all our anti-inflation effort.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079087+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-04-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780418 — MR. PARTEE.
I would be very much opposed to taking it out.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057333+00:00
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-04-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780418 — MR. GUFFEY.
And that is not terribly good because that level of economic activity, coupled with the inflationary pressures, is all going to come crashing together.
hawkish
human
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.069926+00:00
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-04-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780418 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
And we wouldn't have to have Henry negotiate how we pay [the swap debt] off.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065890+00:00
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-04-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780418 — MR. PARDEE.
Well, I haven't seen-- We had one day or two days on which the dollar rose.
unlabeled
mit
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2026-05-30T00:30:07.057288+00:00
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-04-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780418 — MR. COLDWELL.
[regarding] my expectations for the economy--that we are going to attack this inflation rate promptly and are likely to slow down the economy in the latter part of this year.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.056574+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-04-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780418 — MR. WILLES.
It was interesting to me that I found nobody below 7 percent.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057313+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
Well, hearing all that, let me see if I can come up with a proposal to be voted on.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074885+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. BLACK.
I was just wondering what odds you would put on an upward revision of that [Q1 GNP] from an actual decline to a positive figure.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074859+00:00
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meeting_transcript
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1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
Hearing no dissent, we shall so approve.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069946+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. WALLICH.
We are likely to get another bad month in April because we've had a bad wholesale price index.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057354+00:00
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op_fed
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fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. STERNLIGHT.
There are those reasons for their being sold--foreign accounts, captive-type customers, and others who [unintelligible].
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.055612+00:00
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. BLACK.
Otherwise, I think we act at the same trigger point.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057417+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. BLACK.
Yes, I would criticize our earlier discussion for that ambiguity, Steve.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070019+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. ROOS.
No sir, I think the idea is excellent.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.069976+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-05-16
FOMC meeting transcript 19780516 — MR. COLDWELL.
I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057386+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-06-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19780620 — VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
That raises the question of what ranges we should put there.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074917+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-06-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19780620 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
It may mean that we will use other lines of communication that are more secure.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070105+00:00
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label_map_v1.0
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train
a7bf36ad2cf9af0d
op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-06-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19780620 — MR. WILLES.
I=m not predicting that
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079113+00:00
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train
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-06-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19780620 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
Gentlemen, we are going to have John Denkler here in a moment, but you have seen the memo and we have a serious problem.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.065913+00:00
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op_fed
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meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-06-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19780620 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
Whether or not it would be wise, possible, desirable, or agreeable to temporarily suspend the ranges for M1 until we can find out what=s happening, I don=t know.
neutral
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070046+00:00
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ff7954009ad96a44
op_fed
19780620_317_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-06-20
FOMC meeting transcript 19780620 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
Last month I would have preferred line 27; this month I prefer line 28 because I think we are going to have a very tough time operating--
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070075+00:00
9bbc59a908e4916e3a1058487d637377f68eb43c0694c47646b0583509770d7e
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
66ffdbdfd01279ed
op_fed
19780718_59_11
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-07-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780718 — MR. KICHLINE.
So activity is slowing down and we would like to have, aside from the governmental programs, a slowdown in the rates of increase of inflation.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079146+00:00
15c6683ed92994dff6c66f8c878c7a258741b08d13ae3df1ed741c531059a8a5
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
73e02c51bab0c693
op_fed
19780718_338_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-07-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780718 — MR. MAYO.
Alternative C is acceptable to me, Mr. Chairman.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.061639+00:00
0779c8d4e58a567f9b623de5d0bd7d68303da44935b5bad7e9be0d12e0e562b0
peer_reviewed
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hawkish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "hawkish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
90f379a730d9c875
op_fed
19780718_185_8
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-07-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780718 — MR. WALLICH.
I can visualize, because of the very fact that NOW accounts have been talked about so widely nationally, that people would be prepared for them now and would be interested in taking advantage of them.
dovish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074949+00:00
476fd12b0ec9aefaedb82d8e53c542ab36d036a2d1c6f428829b4c021a0171f1
peer_reviewed
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dovish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "dovish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
aa7581995e849040
op_fed
19780718_243_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-07-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780718 — MR. PARTEE.
You are giving him a very difficult assignment.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.079167+00:00
3a4664093e050100710e2366557bb49ef9175305922809e98a6512ed5cbff6f2
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
ab628c4404291859
op_fed
19780718_104_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-07-18
FOMC meeting transcript 19780718 — MR. BAUGHMAN.
Mr. Chairman, I think we still have significant expansive elements in the economy and I share what I think is the staff's view that the distortions are not yet great enough, and that it will take a fair time for them to become great enough, to terminate the expansive influences.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057447+00:00
5ba64f5f8816712fb82b299c45c6ca1a7d3cbf92c00e1eb81f09f589f1d6c607
peer_reviewed
{ "op_fed_opinion": "yes", "op_fed_mp": "yes", "op_fed_mp_context": "sentence", "op_fed_stance_nli_context": null, "op_fed_stance_nli": null, "gss_target_factor": null, "gss_path_factor": null, "gss_fomc_statement": null, "surprise_30min_bp": null, "surprise_1hour_bp": null, "surprise_1day_bp": nu...
null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
2e5a65dfce727663
op_fed
19780815_184_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-08-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19780815 — MR. COLDWELL.
If I read the directive right--the way this is written on the back of page 13--you start moving the fed funds rate on a monetary aggregates approach [if growth is] significantly above or below the midpoint and on a money market when it's close to or beyond the upper or lower limits.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075008+00:00
5cfa2fbed6de1557647a5b166cf5c950917ab36f11f1b779f60a1e67c2f5dd28
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
f40eca4a4eb39024
op_fed
19780815_156_4
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-08-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19780815 — CHAIRMAN MILLER.
[our view] is that we're in that range and the other things are going to slow down the economy [but firms will] not discharge labor because apparently productivity is not going to [increase].
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.074980+00:00
c8151b029087f15c1a44c6320f0b02d6e700a1ea18f18cfbb36c5f681564ee21
peer_reviewed
{ "op_fed_opinion": "yes", "op_fed_mp": "no", "op_fed_mp_context": null, "op_fed_stance_nli_context": null, "op_fed_stance_nli": null, "gss_target_factor": null, "gss_path_factor": null, "gss_fomc_statement": null, "surprise_30min_bp": null, "surprise_1hour_bp": null, "surprise_1day_bp": null, "...
null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
f823d8fea4adfeb0
op_fed
19780815_325_2
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-08-15
FOMC meeting transcript 19780815 — MR. COLDWELL.
The Treasury and us.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.055378+00:00
974e3d7421a738994cd6422a4d9cc549042e79a50b721594dfae687f7d813b99
peer_reviewed
{ "op_fed_opinion": "no", "op_fed_mp": null, "op_fed_mp_context": null, "op_fed_stance_nli_context": null, "op_fed_stance_nli": null, "gss_target_factor": null, "gss_path_factor": null, "gss_fomc_statement": null, "surprise_30min_bp": null, "surprise_1hour_bp": null, "surprise_1day_bp": null, "d...
null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
227ed63a68564e51
op_fed
19780919_225_8
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-09-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19780919 — MR. ROOS.
I might point out that on page 7 of the staff's projections for M1 growth, either alternative A or B would indicate nearly a 2 percentage point drop between the fourth quarter of '78 and the first quarter of '79 in aggregates growth, which I submit would lead to recession.
hawkish
human
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.070151+00:00
175cfb3df728ce3f35a86cdb080356213338692f882aeaf3c6e34075598182b7
peer_reviewed
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hawkish
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
1
{ "stance": "hawkish", "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
49793c520f9368e9
op_fed
19780919_59_10
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-09-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19780919 — MR. KICHLINE.
I think a major difference in these forecasts relates to consumer spending patterns.
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.057511+00:00
66de0376b7fed2d6adb220a134a36194bb3221fc5dd37d8d29c5377795c7d1e8
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
6617233e06da20f6
op_fed
19780919_92_1
meeting_transcript
fomc_meeting_transcript
1978-09-19
FOMC meeting transcript 19780919 — MR. COLDWELL.
Also, I'm a little curious about your description of industrial production slowing when we're still getting more than 1/2 percent a month, having come off [unintelligible].
unlabeled
mit
keith_etal_2025_op_fed
2026-05-30T00:30:07.075038+00:00
fa6d3742b0d37445ba0f473460c4472a11d5996ce2ed0731efae85530a510a72
peer_reviewed
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null
label_map_v1.0
hawkish_dovish_neutral
0
{ "stance": null, "factor": null, "certainty": null, "time": null, "topic": null }
train
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-training-package

Artefact for the fed-pulse FOMC text analytics project.

Training corpus

Canonical FOMC event dataset: events.parquet, splits, fold manifest, rates_panel.parquet, linguistic_features.parquet, mp_surprises.parquet, macro_state.parquet, registry_normalized.jsonl, and quality reports.

Training command

python -m app.data.pipeline_data_prep --all-sources

Attribution

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