Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00195:reg:4:p7
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00195
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 4 (pt 7/8)
Character Range: 61956–64885

throughout the northern part of the species distribution (north of the Cardwell Gap), where the high wind speeds resulted in canopy stripping, tree limb loss and tree topple (Winter, 2011). Due to the current level of fragmentation of remaining habitat, the species is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones and their associated strong winds, largely due to the high forest edge to area ratios and associated edge effects (Turton, 2012; Jackson et al., 2020).

4.3                 Potential threatening processes

4.3.1             Climate change
Climate change is likely to impact upon the survival of the Mahogany Glider in the future due to the predicted increase in extreme climatic events such as tropical cyclones, heavier precipitation and flooding within the Wet Tropics (Easterling et al., 2000; Walsh & Ryan, 2000; Hennessy et al., 2006). Within the Wet Tropics climate change is predicted to result in an increase in average temperatures, more frequent and longer heatwaves, and an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events causing severe flooding (Hilbert et al., 2014). A key strategy to mitigate this threat will be to build resilience into the woodlands and forests upon which Mahogany Gliders rely. These strategies would increase connectivity between lowland fragments and refuge areas, reduce woody weeds and sclerophyll thickening, and increase the overall quality of Mahogany Glider habitat across the entire extent of their range.

4.3.2             Predation by introduced predators
Predation by introduced predators including cats and dogs appears to be limited, with only 1 cat and 1 dog attack being reported to date (Lyon 1993; Parsons 2005). Nevertheless, the probability of such attacks may increase with increasing urban expansion and habitat fragmentation, as animals increasingly come closer to the ground to cross narrow gaps in habitat.

4.3.3             Myrtle Rust Disease
Myrtle Rust (Austropuccinia psidii) is a fungus of plants in the family Myrtaceae and was first detected in Australia in 2010 (Carnegie et al., 2016; Carnegie & Pegg, 2018). This disease damages or kills the new shoots and leaves of susceptible host species, which can lead to progressive defoliation and plant stress or death as older leaves die (Makinson, 2018). The spread of Myrtle Rust is a major concern as it could impact most tree species critical to the survival of the Mahogany Glider. It has been recorded as occurring in Girringun National Park since June 2012, although its spread through the glider's range has been slower than originally anticipated.
The projected extent, rate of establishment and the potential impact on the Mahogany Glider of this fungus is currently unknown. However, disturbance by cyclones and fire may increase the susceptibility of Myrtaceae species, as Myrtle Rust has a higher prevalence and spread into new growth (for example, epicormic growth)