Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L00346:reg:4:p3
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L00346
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 4 (pt 3/7)
Character Range: 58218–61307

reserved for conservation (Carter & Walsh 2006; Foreman 2012; TSSC 2016; Appendix 1). Regardless the tenure types, the majority of sites support extremely low numbers of individuals (< 10 plants) that are unlikely to survive without intensive management intervention such as prescribed burning and weed control (Appendix 1).
Managing private land is important to ensure that Spiny Rice-flower grassland habitats do not further degrade before formal acquisition or protection. In Victoria, native vegetation clearing controls apply, however there are exemptions for permitted clearing which may result in loss of Spiny Rice-flower plants or populations. Furthermore, planning solutions such as the Melbourne Strategic Assessment (DSE 2009) have not achieved the intended conservation objectives (VAGO, 2020) for species such as the Spiny Rice-flower and its habitat. Grassland habitat on public land has not been managed to protect or enhance its biodiversity assets despite government assurance (VAGO 2020). A strategic program to enact covenants, voluntary acquisitions and implement long-term and appropriate management is critical to avoid the loss of Spiny Rice-flower populations and habitat on private property. This program has been initiated by the Pimelea spinescens Recovery Team.

Climate change
Spiny Rice-flower individuals, particularly seedlings, are sensitive to prolonged drought. Populations have been observed to significantly decline over relatively short periods of time when subject drought (Foreman 2012; McCaw 2020). Rainfall in southeast Australia has been declining in recent decades and is projected to decline further, especially in the cooler months of the year (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology 2020). Climate change is anticipated to further threaten Spiny Rice-flower populations, but the mechanisms by which persistence may be impacted can only be inferred from the ecology of the species and require further research. For instance, the plant relies on cool autumns and winters to trigger flowering and seed production, and thus, warm nights in autumn may lead to reduced reproduction. Increasingly hot summers will also lead to reduced survival of seedlings, likely from the effect of hot and dry wind and high temperature at night (DELWP 2021). Further, the duration, frequency and intensity of drought periods may increase across the range and will likely have cascading impacts across the life stages of the species including flowering, seed production and recruitment (Hoffman et al. 2010, 2019; Satyanti 2021). Flowering periods may be affected by changing climatic signals, resulting in phenological shifts that may also decouple plant-pollinator interactions (Hoffman et al. 2019). This may ultimately reduce the reproductive capacity of obligate outcrossing taxa, like the Spiny Rice-flower.
Climate change can also drive changes in existing fire regimes, with more frequent and intense fires projected alongside shorter windows of opportunity for individuals to reach maturity before fire recurs (immaturity risk; Westerling et al. 2011). Given that