Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2023C00382:front:0:p52
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2023C00382
Segment Type: other
Provision Reference: 
Character Range: 137251–140127

if variables need to be derived (for example, because no observable market variables exist) they shall be as consistent as possible with observable market variables.
B45 Market prices blend a range of views about possible future outcomes and also reflect the risk preferences of market participants. Consequently, they are not a single-point forecast of the future outcome. If the actual outcome differs from the previous market price, this does not mean that the market price was 'wrong'.
B46 An important application of market variables is the notion of a replicating asset or a replicating portfolio of assets. A replicating asset is one whose cash flows exactly match, in all scenarios, the contractual cash flows of a group of insurance contracts in amount, timing and uncertainty. In some cases, a replicating asset may exist for some of the cash flows that arise from a group of insurance contracts. The fair value of that asset reflects both the expected present value of the cash flows from the asset and the risk associated with those cash flows. If a replicating portfolio of assets exists for some of the cash flows that arise from a group of insurance contracts, the entity can use the fair value of those assets to measure the relevant fulfilment cash flows instead of explicitly estimating the cash flows and discount rate.
B47 AASB 17 does not require an entity to use a replicating portfolio technique. However, if a replicating asset or portfolio does exist for some of the cash flows that arise from insurance contracts and an entity chooses to use a different technique, the entity shall satisfy itself that a replicating portfolio technique would be unlikely to lead to a materially different measurement of those cash flows.
B48 Techniques other than a replicating portfolio technique, such as stochastic modelling techniques, may be more robust or easier to implement if there are significant interdependencies between cash flows that vary based on returns on assets and other cash flows. Judgement is required to determine the technique that best meets the objective of consistency with observable market variables in specific circumstances. In particular, the technique used must result in the measurement of any options and guarantees included in the insurance contracts being consistent with observable market prices (if any) for such options and guarantees.

Non-market variables
B49 Estimates of non-market variables shall reflect all reasonable and supportable evidence available without undue cost or effort, both external and internal.
B50 Non-market external data (for example, national mortality statistics) may have more or less relevance than internal data (for example, internally developed mortality statistics), depending on the circumstances. For example, an entity that issues life insurance contracts shall not rely solely on national