Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555:body:0:p64
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555
Segment Type: other
Provision Reference: 
Character Range: 201426–204519

QLD              none burned
Northern Gulf, QLD                      none burned
Maranoa Balonne and Border Rivers, QLD  3,024 (<1%)
Burdekin, QLD                           1,930 (<1%)
Mackay Whitsunday, QLD                  1,005 (<1%)
ACT                                     21,140 (23%)
TOTAL                                   3,659,625 (9%)

21.2 The listed Koala
The department's modelled distribution for the listed Koala shows a widespread distribution extending from just north of Cairns in far north Queensland, down the east coast of Australia, to the Victorian border (Figure 1; DAWE 2021a). The majority of known habitat is concentrated along the coast of south-eastern Queensland and central to northern coast of New South Wales. Major riparian areas, including parts of the Murray River, the Darling River system (New South Wales) and the Carnarvon region (central Queensland) are likely to, or may, support Koalas in landscapes otherwise devoid of Koalas.
The listed Koala represents about 84% of the modelled distribution for the entire species. The total area of modelled distribution where Koalas and their habitat are known or likely to occur (Figure 1, shown in purple and dark pink) is the area of major focus for action under this recovery plan. This does not preclude actions in areas beyond these boundaries, where genetically unique populations may exist, or unmapped quality habitat may occur.
The categories likely to occur and may occur in the listed Koala distribution shown in Figure 1 were generated by combining information on the distribution of Koalas (DAWE 2021a) using MaxEnt software (maximum entropy modelling, Phillips et al. 2006), with, where available, expert-elicited and vegetation-based mapping of Koala habitat and models of Koala food trees (DES 2020b; DPIE 2019; Runge et al. 2021a). MaxEnt models predict species occurrence based on presence-only data and available biophysical data layers. The category known to occur was generated by spatial buffers around recorded observations of Koalas. It is important to note that modelled distribution is indicative only for recovery planning purposes, and that ground-truthing is required to examine site-level habitat suitability, quality and the presence of Koalas. The area within the modelled distribution may include areas that are not Koala habitat (e.g. grasslands or wetlands). Areas not relevant for the listed Koala, will be identified in fine-scale mapping such as regional plans (section 12.2), and will be excluded from recovery efforts.

21.3 Predicted 2070 distribution under climate change
Extreme heat events and extreme drought are becoming more frequent under climate change (CSIRO and BOM 2015; BOM and CSIRO 2020; Herold et al. 2018), and the long-term re-establishment of Koala populations in areas with more extreme climates will become increasingly unlikely. The Koala's distribution appears to be contracting in a manner consistent with expected impacts of climate change on the species, with recent declines in previously healthy Koala populations at the species range limits