Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2023C00382:front:0:p53
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2023C00382
Segment Type: other
Provision Reference: 
Character Range: 139843–142871

data (for example, national mortality statistics) may have more or less relevance than internal data (for example, internally developed mortality statistics), depending on the circumstances. For example, an entity that issues life insurance contracts shall not rely solely on national mortality statistics, but shall consider all other reasonable and supportable internal and external sources of information available without undue cost or effort when developing unbiased estimates of probabilities for mortality scenarios for its insurance contracts. In developing those probabilities, an entity shall give more weight to the more persuasive information. For example:
(a) internal mortality statistics may be more persuasive than national mortality data if national data is derived from a large population that is not representative of the insured population. This might be because, for example, the demographic characteristics of the insured population could significantly differ from those of the national population, meaning that an entity would need to place more weight on the internal data and less weight on the national statistics.
(b) conversely, if the internal statistics are derived from a small population with characteristics that are believed to be close to those of the national population, and the national statistics are current, an entity shall place more weight on the national statistics.
B51 Estimated probabilities for non-market variables shall not contradict observable market variables. For example, estimated probabilities for future inflation rate scenarios shall be as consistent as possible with probabilities implied by market interest rates.
B52 In some cases, an entity may conclude that market variables vary independently of non-market variables. If so, the entity shall consider scenarios that reflect the range of outcomes for the non-market variables, with each scenario using the same observed value of the market variable.
B53 In other cases, market variables and non-market variables may be correlated. For example, there may be evidence that lapse rates (a non-market variable) are correlated with interest rates (a market variable). Similarly, there may be evidence that claim levels for house or car insurance are correlated with economic cycles and therefore with interest rates and expense amounts. The entity shall ensure that the probabilities for the scenarios and the risk adjustments for the non-financial risk that relates to the market variables are consistent with the observed market prices that depend on those market variables.

Using current estimates (paragraph 33(c))
B54 In estimating each cash flow scenario and its probability, an entity shall use all reasonable and supportable information available without undue cost or effort. An entity shall review the estimates that it made at the end of the previous reporting period and update them. In doing so, an entity shall consider whether:
(a) the updated estimates faithfully represent the conditions at the end of