Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555:body:0:p65
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555
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Character Range: 204244–207197

more extreme climates will become increasingly unlikely. The Koala's distribution appears to be contracting in a manner consistent with expected impacts of climate change on the species, with recent declines in previously healthy Koala populations at the species range limits attributed to drought and heatwaves (Gordon et al. 1988; Lunney et al. 2012, 2017; Seabrook et al. 2011).
The Koala's distribution is predicted to dramatically contract southward and to the coast over the next 50 years under a high global emissions scenario, a consequence of further increases in the intensity and frequency of droughts and heatwaves brought about by climate change (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a; Briscoe et al. 2016; (Figure 6). This will result in a reduction in the total area of distribution of the Koala, as the southern and eastern range limits are constrained by the Australian landmass.
Koala feeding on nutritious eucalyptus leaves. Image © Shutterstock.

Figure 6. Predicted listed Koala distribution in 2070 under a high global emissions scenario (RCP8.5) considering the impacts of climate-change driven changes to droughts and heatwaves on Koalas. Colour indicates the degree of certainty that a given area will be climatically suitable for Koalas, indicated by the proportion of species distribution models that predict the area will be climatically suitable. Blue indicates high confidence that an area will be suitable for Koalas, and yellow indicates high confidence that an area will be unsuitable for Koalas. Data from Briscoe et al. (2016)
The northern and western edges of Koala distribution are limited by the physiological constraints of the Koala, and influenced by temperature, humidity, and water availability (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a; Briscoe et al. 2016; Clifton et al. 2007; DPIE 2019; DES 2020b; Law et al. 2017; Seabrook et al. 2014a). Extreme climatic events such as drought and heatwave drive the distributional limits of Koalas (Briscoe et al. 2016; Seabrook et al. 2014a), mediated by Koalas' vulnerability to water stress (section 29). Following favourable wetter years, Koalas may recolonise habitat at the edge of their distributional limits, only to become locally extinct during the next drought or heatwave.
Widespread extinction of Koalas due to climate change within the next 50 years is a risk in most western populations including the Brigalow Belt, Mulga Lands, Mitchell Grass Downs, Darling Riverine Plains and Desert Uplands bioregions (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a; Briscoe et al. 2016; McAlpine et al. 2015). Isolated individuals may survive in local refugia, where microclimates, groundwater, and habitat characteristics are favourable (McLaughlin et al. 2017; Seabrook et al. 2014a).
There is some uncertainty surrounding where the northern and western edges of Koala distribution will fall under climate change (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a; Briscoe et al. 2016). These differences are driven by differences in