Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2023C00382:front:0:p55
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2023C00382
Segment Type: other
Provision Reference: 
Character Range: 145201–148189

population (for example, changes in underwriting or distribution, or selective lapses by policyholders in unusually good health);
(c) random fluctuations; or
(d) identifiable non-recurring causes.
B57 An entity shall investigate the reasons for the change in experience and develop new estimates of cash flows and probabilities in the light of the most recent experience, the earlier experience and other information. The result for the example in paragraph B56 would typically be that the expected present value of death benefits changes, but not by as much as 20 per cent. In the example in paragraph B56, if mortality rates continue to be significantly higher than the previous estimates for reasons that are expected to continue, the estimated probability assigned to the high-mortality scenarios will increase.
B58 Estimates of non-market variables shall include information about the current level of insured events and information about trends. For example, mortality rates have consistently declined over long periods in many countries. The determination of the fulfilment cash flows reflects the probabilities that would be assigned to each possible trend scenario, taking account of all reasonable and supportable information available without undue cost or effort.
B59 Similarly, if cash flows allocated to a group of insurance contracts are sensitive to inflation, the determination of the fulfilment cash flows shall reflect current estimates of possible future inflation rates. Because inflation rates are likely to be correlated with interest rates, the measurement of fulfilment cash flows shall reflect the probabilities for each inflation scenario in a way that is consistent with the probabilities implied by the market interest rates used in estimating the discount rate (see paragraph B51).
B60 When estimating the cash flows, an entity shall take into account current expectations of future events that might affect those cash flows. The entity shall develop cash flow scenarios that reflect those future events, as well as unbiased estimates of the probability of each scenario. However, an entity shall not take into account current expectations of future changes in legislation that would change or discharge the present obligation or create new obligations under the existing insurance contract until the change in legislation is substantively enacted.

Cash flows within the contract boundary (paragraph 34)
B61 Estimates of cash flows in a scenario shall include all cash flows within the boundary of an existing contract and no other cash flows. An entity shall apply paragraph 2 in determining the boundary of an existing contract.
B62 Many insurance contracts have features that enable policyholders to take actions that change the amount, timing, nature or uncertainty of the amounts they will receive. Such features include renewal options, surrender options, conversion options and options to stop paying premiums while still receiving benefits under the