Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287:reg:3:p82
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 3 (pt 82/276)
Character Range: 322004–324925

EPBC Act listing categories shown: CR = Critically Endangered, EN = Endangered, and VU = Vulnerable
Response over 10 years for each individual species (or plant group) without management action (yellow bars, on the left of each column entry) and with all programs being implemented at the 2021 level (green bars, on the right of each column entry). The dotted lines indicate the threshold for a species to move between EPBC Act listing categories. The three snail species presumed extinct at the time of the analysis (Advena grayi was rediscovered subsequently) are not included in this chart, as their status was not predicted to change with management. It should be noted that there was an implicit assumption that, even under a scenario of no management, biosecurity on Phillip Island would remain sufficient to prevent non-native predators being introduced from Norfolk Island; as a result, the outcomes of the two scenarios in terms of threat status were similar for the two species of reptile (however, there was an additional benefit of management that is not shown in the graph as the bars are clipped at 1000 years).

Part 4—Management planning

4.1         Conceptual framework for management planning

4.1.1        Conceptual models
This plan is underpinned by a high-level conceptual model (Figure 4) that outlines the threats to threatened species (and biodiversity more generally on Norfolk Island), the drivers of those threats, and the management that could be implemented to mitigate them. As described in Section 2.1, the 58 threatened species are impacted by a range of pressures, mostly relating to interactions with invasive species and effects of land use practices, which are exacerbated by climate change impacts such as reduced rainfall and higher risk of fires. Some threatened species populations are vulnerable to reduced genetic diversity that is inherent to many isolated small island populations.
Figure 4 Simplified conceptual model of the pressures, drivers, and management that influence the state of threatened species on the Norfolk Island Group
Building on this simple model, more detailed conceptual models have been developed focusing on the factors that influence individual species or groups of species (Appendix A: Conceptual models—Figure 10 to Figure 14). Conceptual models are a valuable planning tool in conservation as they allow the identification of specific relationships (which might involve the interaction of several factors) that influence threatened species or other values to be conserved, and of the ways that management might affect those relationships. In this case, the models highlight that a range of pressures impact threatened species in the Norfolk Island Group. These pressures often interact with one another and may cause cascading and compounding effects that impact multiple threatened species. One such major pressure confirmed by these models is the