Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287:reg:3:p61
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 3 (pt 61/276)
Character Range: 236699–239700

observed on Norfolk Island are likely due to the extension of the poleward shift in the subtropical ridge, which has influenced the decreased rainfall trend in south‑eastern Australia (Cai 2011). The predicted impact of climate change on specific ecosystems is uncertain, but it is likely that climate change will have a profound influence on the distribution of vegetation, invertebrates and seabirds (Hughes 2003; Dunlop & Brown 2008; Director of National Parks 2011). This is likely to be exacerbated by ongoing reduction of tree cover, of which more than 60% has been lost.
Possible impacts of climate change on Norfolk Island include:
    * decreased annual rainfall, changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, and long runs of dry years impacting on the hydrology of Norfolk Island, including groundwater recharge and streamflow (CSIRO 2020)
    * drying conditions and lower soil moisture balances affecting species requiring constant damp conditions to survive, such as snails, skinks, and some native flora
    * changes to cloud formation reducing the frequency with which the forest is immersed in cloud, reducing available water and causing the forest to dry out, impacting both forest productivity and threatened species which thrive in cool moist mountain areas (McJannet et.al. 2023)
    * increased erosion and runoff due to increased intensity and frequency of storm events (particularly on Phillip Island until higher vegetation cover is achieved)
    * hotter, drier conditions resulting in stress and mortality in plants and an increased fire risk, which is a particular risk for many fire-sensitive plants and wet rainforest ecosystems; there is a particularly high fire risk in the forestry area (part of the Mt Pitt section of the park) where introduced Eucalyptus trees are adjacent to native forest
    * increased sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves which may impact regional marine communities and may have implications for top predators such as seabirds (Hyder Consulting 2008)
    * increased flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion in low lying areas (mostly Kingston) from more frequent and higher-level storm surges (Watkins Consulting 1999) in combination with sea level rise
    * extreme weather events such as cyclones which may result in damage to forest ecosystems on Norfolk Island
Finally, many other pressures are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, further magnifying these direct impacts of climate change. For example, some invasive species are likely to be better adapted to increasingly warm and/or dry conditions than endemic species, increasing the ability of the former to outcompete the latter.
Endemic species with restricted distributions and limited population size are particularly susceptible to all of these impacts.

Pressures resulting from small population size
Many of Norfolk Island's native species face pressures due to their small population sizes. Small, isolated populations are susceptible to genetic drift and