Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L00930:reg:2:p20
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L00930
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 2 (pt 20/48)
Character Range: 116211–119199

and prey depletion from overharvesting. To ensure the conservation and recovery of southern right whales, there is a need to protect existing and potential breeding habitat throughout the species current and projected range. Improved knowledge of their seasonal movements between calving areas, foraging, and migratory habitat is needed to implement effective management interventions.
The following provides an overview of the key threats to southern right whales in Australian waters, noting the current management measures in place to address the threat. Threats are listed in order of priority based on risk, as determined by the threat prioritisation process outlined in section 3.11.

   3.1         Anthropogenic climate change and climate variability
Modelling the links between krill and whale population dynamics with climate change, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity, and sea ice, suggests future ocean conditions are likely to have a negative impact on krill populations and in association the baleen whale species that feed on them (Tulloch et al. 2019). Strong correlations have been observed between environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies) on right whale high latitude feeding grounds and female reproductive success and recovery on their winter breeding grounds (Leaper et al. 2006, Meyer-Gutbrod et al. 2015, Seyboth et al. 2016). In the South Atlantic, conception can be affected by high sea surface temperatures (which can also occur as a result of earlier onset of El Niño conditions) in the autumn months of the previous year of conception, and can lead to depressed pregnancy rates (Leaper et al. 2006). Variability in prey abundance has been linked with climate cycles (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and ocean warming in high latitude ecosystems, with anthropogenic climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of these climate cycles, and potentially impacting foraging opportunities for southern right whales (Dedden & Rogers 2022).
Southern right whale breeding success is believed to be driven by an underlying relationship with the availability and fluctuation of prey abundance on summer high latitude foraging areas and variation in calving rate may be influenced by climate factors impacting changes to calving intervals (Pirzl et al. 2008). If so, data on calving histories may be more effective and accessible indicators of the effects of oceanographic conditions on breeding success than data on pregnancy rates (Leaper et al. 2006). Annual calf production at the Head of Bight has been linked to variability in the ENSO, with reduced reproductive output associated with El Niño conditions on a 2.5 to 3-year time lag. Extended intervals between successful calving events have also been associated with variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on a 3-year time lag (Pirzl et al. 2008). The likelihood of a negative impact from climate change on southern right whale breeding