Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2023L01713:body:0:p37
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2023L01713
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Character Range: 171777–174681

mouse – will be able to adapt to the rapid sea-level rises that are predicted over the next century, particularly along the southern Queensland coast with its low tidal range and restrictions on downstream movement of sediment due to dams (Lovelock et al. 2015; Saintilan et al. 2020).
Extensive areas of built environment along the east coast of Queensland will further restrict the potential for landward migration of mangroves and other coastal habitats as sea levels rise, leading to a significant reduction in the amount and connectivity of intertidal water mouse habitat (Traill et al. 2011). Inland migration of mangrove communities as sea levels rise may also be restricted or prevented in remote areas with severe impacts from pigs, smothering weeds and/or frequent fire in, and adjacent to, the upper tidal (Duke 2022 pers. comm.).
The rapid salination of extensive low-elevation coastal freshwater floodplains as sea levels rise is predicted to reduce the overall availability of water mouse habitat across northern Australia (Woinarski et al. 2003; Woinarski & Winderlich 2014; see Fig. 3d in Bayliss et al. 2018). Saltwater intrusion into floodplains of the Northern Territory may be exacerbated by water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) eroding travel pads that pre-emptively connect large freshwater systems to tidal flows (ASRAC 2017).

4.3                  Mangrove dieback
Climate-induced mangrove dieback has the potential to impact vast stretches of water mouse habitat across northern Australia. Broadscale mangrove dieback occurred in the Gulf of Carpentaria in 1982 and again in 2015 (Duke et al. 2017; 2022). The dieback affected the upper mangrove zone, which is the primary habitat for water mouse elsewhere in Australia. Up to 74,000 ha of potential water mouse habitat across 1000 km of coastline was simultaneously lost during the 2015 event. The capacity for these mangrove ecosystems to recover depends on the occurrence of additional perturbations (cyclones, storms, floods, further droughts) over the following ten years (Duke et al. 2017).
The most likely cause of shoreline mangrove dieback in the Gulf of Carpentaria was a temporary but extended sea level drop of approximately 0.4 m for six months causing moisture stress in the upper mangrove zone during an unusually long period of dry El Niño conditions (Duke et al. 2017; 2022). Ocean and air temperatures and evaporation rates are projected to increase over the next few decades (Moise et al. 2015), increasing the likelihood of future severe and extended hot and dry conditions across parts of Northern Australia (Dai 2013). Broadscale shoreline mangrove dieback is a previously unrecognised vulnerability of mangrove communities (Duke et al. 2017; 2022) and the water mouse to climate change. Dieback of seaward fringing mangroves from 'drowning' during La Niña conditions (Duke et al. 2022) may also impact the water