Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555:body:0:p114
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555
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Character Range: 360491–368023

distribution models and seven f correlative species distribution models. The variables used to construct each model are summarised in Table 2.
Table 2. Summary of 13 species distribution models used to estimate impacts of climate change on the Koala
Modelling platform (model type)  Model name (see reference for details)  Variables included in model                                                                                                                             General circulation models (GCM), emissions scenario (RCP) used  Historical climate  Threshold                                                                                                            Source
NicheMapR (mechanistic)          Poor_high                               Energy and water requirements of reproducing females with site-specific morphology and available microclimates – assuming high foliage water content    ACCESS 1.3; RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           Thresholded to include 95% of Koala records since 2000 (equivalent to test omission of 0.05), spatially thinned to   Briscoe et al. 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1 km
NicheMapR (mechanistic)          Poor_high                               As above                                                                                                                                                HadGEM2-CC, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
NicheMapR (mechanistic)          Poor_med                                Energy and water requirements of reproducing females with site-specific morphology and available microclimates – assuming medium foliage water content  ACCESS 1.3, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
NicheMapR (mechanistic)          Poor_med                                As above                                                                                                                                                HadGEM2-CC, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
NicheMapR (mechanistic)          Poor_low                                Energy and water requirements of reproducing females with site-specific morphology and available microclimates – assuming low foliage water content     ACCESS 1.3, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
NicheMapR (mechanistic)          Poor_low                                As above                                                                                                                                                HadGEM2-CC, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
Maxent                           Averages                                Annual rainfall, Max temp in warmest month, Eucalypt woodland cover, road density                                                                       ACCESS 1.3, RCP8.5                                               –                   As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
(correlative)
Maxent                           Averages                                As above                                                                                                                                                HadGEM2-CC, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
(correlative)
Maxent                           Extremes A                              Max run of dry days, 95th percentile temperature, Vapour pressure during hot weather, Eucalypt woodland cover, road density                             ACCESS 1.3, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
(correlative)
Maxent                           Extremes A                              As above                                                                                                                                                HadGEM2-CC, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
(correlative)
Maxent                           Extremes B                              Max run of dry days, max run of hot days, vapour pressure during hot weather, Eucalypt woodland cover, road density                                     ACCESS 1.3, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
(correlative)
Maxent                           Extremes B                              As above                                                                                                                                                HadGEM2-CC, RCP8.5                                               1990–2009           As above                                                                                                             Briscoe et al. 2016
(correlative)
Maxent                           NA                                      Mean summer maximum temperature, mean annual rainfall                                                                                                   CSIRO MK 3.5 OzClim, SRES                                        1961–1990           Equal sensitivity and specificity (Test omission =0.224)                                                             Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a
(correlative)                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A1FI

As climate projections in Briscoe are available for 2070 only, these published models were interpolated following IUCN/SSC (2019) to generate estimates of the area of land within the Koala's physiological tolerances for 2030 and 2050, using the following formula applied to each cell in the projected Koala distribution rasters.
z = x +        ((yr2 - yr1)(y - x))
((yr3 - yr1))

Where x is the value