Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287:reg:3:p60
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 3 (pt 60/276)
Character Range: 234049–236959

fatality to vertebrate marine life caused by ingestion of, or entanglement in, harmful marine debris (TSSC 2003). However, based on current evidence, neither of these processes are likely to have a significant impact on threatened species in the Norfolk Island Group. For example, none of the seabirds currently breeding in the island group have been found in bycatch from longlines, and these species have ecological characteristics that make it unlikely they would be impacted, such as night foraging and size of prey they target (N Carlile 2024, pers comm 12 January). Similarly, there is no evidence to suggest that ingestion of human debris (such as plastic) by Norfolk Island Group seabirds is occurring to any degree, much less at levels significant enough to cause injury or fatality (N Carlile 2024, pers comm 12 January). Furthermore, none of Norfolk Island's threatened seabirds are known to forage in at-sea areas of high plastic concentrations in either their breeding or non‑breeding periods (Clark et al. 2023).
The development of offshore wind farm turbine infrastructure may present an emerging threat to Norfolk Island seabirds. At least four seabird species breeding within the Norfolk Group (wedge‑tailed shearwaters, providence petrel, sooty tern and flesh-footed shearwater) are known to forage in the coastal areas of eastern Australia, potentially in proximity to proposed offshore wind farms (N Carlile 2024, pers comm 12 January).

Climate change
The impacts of a changing climate caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are a current and increasing threat to global biodiversity, with many impacts irreversible and expected to continue over the coming centuries and millennia (IPCC 2021). As a result, climate change has been acknowledged as one of the key drivers of species extinction (IPBES 2019).
Current climate change projections for Norfolk Island include a 1.3°C increase in temperature (10th to 90th percentile range, 1.1°C to 1.7°C) and a 6% decrease in rainfall (10th to 90th percentile range, -13% to +4%) by 2050 (CSIRO, Managers of World Heritage Properties in Australia and Indigenous Reference Group 2021). More general regional climate change projections can be drawn from those for nearby Lord Howe Island, which project increased frequency and severity of storm events, increase in drought events, drier winter and spring conditions, more intense marine heatwaves by mid-century (1.5–4°C warmer with 240–320 more total annual marine heatwave days) and regional sea level change by 2046–65 of 0.2–0.4 m (Erwin et al. 2015; Bindoff et al. 2019; Oliver et al. 2019; CSIRO 2020). Drying trends observed on Norfolk Island are likely due to the extension of the poleward shift in the subtropical ridge, which has influenced the decreased rainfall trend in south‑eastern Australia (Cai 2011). The predicted impact of climate change on specific ecosystems is