Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287:reg:3:p114
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 3 (pt 114/276)
Character Range: 456241–459253

of each management program. While the targets outlined earlier in the plan have a ten-year horizon, the timeframe for estimating costs was five years.
The first step was to define each management program (hereafter, MP) and its target, based on section 4.3 of this plan, followed by relevant assumptions, required activities, and cost components. The underlying activities required to achieve the MP target over a five-year period were identified, using a standardised framework of categories of action. Each activity was assigned to one of six categories: general management (including planning and preparation); on-ground management; communication, education and policy; monitoring; research; or training. Within each activity a consistent structure was used to define four specific cost components: labour, travel within site, consumables and equipment.
The second step was estimating the management costs for the management programs by generating structured models to estimate the cost of each MP as a function of relevant activities (spatial and non-spatial). To capture the uncertainty in underlying variables, a Monte-Carlo analysis was used to simulate a range of cost estimates, taking into consideration a range of uncertain variables that were common to many programs, including travel and accommodation costs, labour costs and discount rates.
The third step was to model the contingency costs for eradicating invasive species (rodents, weeds, Phytophthora cinnamomi, house gecko and Argentine ant) from Phillip Island if those species arrived on the island from Norfolk Island. This was done by considering the per eradication event cost and the probability of occurrence over the five years.
The management areas considered were the Mt. Pitt section of Norfolk Island National Park (hereafter, Mt Pitt; 3.6 km2), the Phillip Island section of Norfolk Island National Park (hereafter, Phillip Island; 1.9 km2), the collective of council and Commonwealth reserves (hereafter, reserves; 2.37 km2), and all the other land in the Norfolk Island Group external to the aforementioned protected areas (hereafter, other land; 27.13 km2). Actions within management programs were defined based on Parks Australia's management of Mt Pitt and Phillip Island. These actions could be extended to the reserves with reasonable confidence as all the protected areas share relatively similar contexts. For a small number of management programs, costs were further extrapolated to other land in the Norfolk Island Group. These estimates are more uncertain and might reflect true management costs less accurately, as assumptions about vegetation condition, invasive species densities and required activities based on the protected areas may not be valid for private land. A separate exercise to estimate costs for private land more thoroughly should be undertaken.
This section presents the scope of the cost models, the cost modelling approach, and the estimate of the budget required to achieve the targets of the plan