Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L01285:reg:3:p9
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L01285
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 3 (pt 9/26)
Character Range: 94027–97004

life cycle events) of some species. A long-term study (55 years) of a seabird community in East Antarctica found that some species arrived 5-30 days later at their breeding colonies than in the 1950s, while others also laid their eggs a few days later than six decades ago (Barbraud & Weimerskirch 2006). Seabirds have to ensure that resource availability continues to coincide with the critical phases in their breeding cycles (Brown et al. 2016), but the phenology of their prey does not necessarily alter to the same extent. This could lead to a mismatch in timing of breeding and food availability. Alternatively, seabirds may shift their distribution if conditions have become more favourable elsewhere. However, such biogeographic shifts, if possible, result in major changes to ecosystem structure, species abundance and biodiversity (Beaugrand 2014).
Different effects of climate change are already observed among birds of the same species but of different ages. For example, among Black-browed Albatross monitored for over 40 years, the survival of middle-aged birds was reduced in years when sea surface temperatures in foraging areas were elevated, while old and young albatrosses survived better than in cold years (Pardo et al. 2013). As well, while generally regarded as monogamous, pair separations of Black-browed Albatross have increased at New Island in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas from 1% to 8% across years due to warmer seas surface temperature anomalies arising from climate change environmental variability (Ventura et al. 2021).
The breeding success of Amsterdam Albatrosses, monitored annually from 1983 to 2006, was reduced in years of elevated sea surface temperatures in spring and summer, while warmer sea surface temperatures in the species' wintering grounds did not appear to have a measurable effect (Barbraud et al. 2011). Further understanding of how populations will respond to climate change will be necessary for a successful assessment of impacts on breeding performance, success and survival.
Climate change may also act as a catalyser of epizootics, especially infectious diseases (Altizer et al. 2013). The effect of changing patterns of transmission of infectious diseases, such as Avian Cholera (Uhart et al. 2018), may pose a major threat for albatrosses and petrels in the future, especially in the Southern Ocean environment where ecosystems have evolved in isolation (Weimerskirch 2004, Phillips et al. 2016).
Climate change may have deleterious weather-based effects including elevated temperatures (heatwaves), changes in rainfall patterns, and storm surges (Thompson et al. 2015, Phillips et al. 2016). These may adversely affect nesting habitat, through the loss of moisture for plants used in building nests. At Heard Island, climate change is having a dramatic impact including changes in weather patterns and glacial retreat, with vegetation and lagoons now existing where once there were sea-front, glacier snouts