Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L00270:body:0:p13
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L00270
Segment Type: other
Provision Reference: 
Character Range: 35159–38269

the Victorian government proposes to establish an advisory panel to consider and make recommendations to Government on the areas of forests that qualify for protection as National Parks, the areas of forests that would be suitable for recreation opportunities, and opportunities for management of public land by Traditional Owners.
A specific 'Leadbeater's Possum reserve system' (see Section 10.2 Definitions) was established in 2008, but analysis concluded that it was insufficient to ensure the long-term persistence of the species under scenarios incorporating future fires (Lumsden et al. 2013, Todd et al. 2016). However, this modelling was undertaken prior to the dramatic increase in survey effort described earlier and does not reflect the cessation of native timber harvesting. No modelling has yet been done of population viability to reflect the current circumstances.

Implications for conservation management
    * Previous arrangements suggested that reserved areas were insufficient for conservation of the species. However, the circumstances have since changed substantially and there is considerable uncertainty what that means for Leadbeater's possum conservation.

Priority research needs to enhance management
    * Updated population viability and distributional modelling followed by additional surveys should be undertaken to determine the arrangements required to significantly reduce the risk of extinction of Leadbeater's possum over the next 100-year period. Such analysis will need to reflect new understanding of the distribution and dynamics of the possum and its habitat and incorporate projected changes in land use and climate including those parts of the landscape likely to provide climate refugia.

3.2.4             Recent decline in distribution
The 2009 bushfires burnt 68,000 ha of the montane ash forest and sub-alpine (snow gum) woodland potential habitat, apparently eliminating possums from those areas (Lindenmayer et al. 2013c; Lumsden et al. 2013). In recent years, however, recolonisation has commenced, with Leadbeater's possum detected at between 25% and 50% of 2009-burnt sites that have been sampled since 2016. This includes sites in montane ash habitats (ARI unpublished data), areas of snow gum at Lake Mountain (ZoosVic and Parks Victoria unpublished data) and in the Buxton Silver Gum Nature Conservation Reserve northeast of Toolangi (which contains habitat more similar to Yellingbo lowland swamp habitats). Post-fire recolonisation rates in different forest types appear to be variable, with longer periods required in subalpine woodland (Zoos Victoria, unpublished data), presumably related to the slower rate of vegetation regeneration.
Habitat loss is not only sudden and episodic – there is also an ongoing, more gradual decline. Based on assessments of decline in the abundance of hollow-bearing trees (Lindenmayer et al. 2015b), the TSSC described an ongoing decline in the extent and quality of suitable habitat based on the collapse of large hollow-bearing trees, fire and timber harvesting, with such decline causing a projected decrease of