Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2013L00289:body:0:p32
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2013L00289
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that the threat category is determined by the group at highest risk. Population-wide threats are generally considered to present a higher risk but the low numbers in the south-east population mean that threats acting at the individual level may also present a high risk for that population.

The risk matrix uses a qualitative assessment drawing on peer reviewed literature and expert opinion. Levels of risk and the associated priority for action are defined as follows:

      * Very High – immediate additional mitigation action required

      * High – additional mitigation action and an adaptive management plan required, the precautionary principle should be applied

      * Moderate – obtain additional information and develop additional mitigation action if required

      * Low – monitor the threat occurrence and reassess threat level if likelihood or consequences change.

Table 4: Risk Prioritisation

Likelihood of occurrence (relevant to species)  Consequences

No long-term effect                             Minor         Moderate  Major      Catastrophic

Almost certain                                  Low           Moderate  Very high  Very high     Very high
Likely                                          Low           Moderate  High       Very high     Very high
Possible                                        Low           Moderate  High       Very high     Very high
Unlikely                                        Low           Low       Moderate   High          Very high
Rare or unknown                                 Low           Low       Moderate   High          Very high

Categories for likelihood are defined as follows:

      * Almost certain – expected to occur every year

      * Likely – expected to occur at least once every five years

      * Possible – might occur at some time

      * Unlikely – such events are known to have occurred on a worldwide basis but only a few times

      * Rare or unknown – may occur only in exceptional circumstances; OR it is currently unknown how often the incident will occur.
Categories for consequences are defined as follows:

      * No long-term effect – no long-term effect on individuals or populations

      * Minor – individuals are affected but no affect at population level

      * Moderate – population recovery stalls or reduces

      * Major – population declines

      * Catastrophic – population extinction.

Table 5: South-west Population Residual Risk Matrix

Likelihood of occurrence (relevant to species)  Consequences

No long term effect                             Minor         Moderate                                        Major                    Catastrophic

                                                               Commercial fisheries or aquaculture equipment   Seismic surveys*
Almost certain                                                 Shipping noise*
                                                               Whale watching
Likely                                                         Chronic industrial noise*
                                                               Infrastructure/ coastal development
                                                               Marine debris
                                                               Vessel Collisions                                                        Climate variability and change
Possible                                                       Acute Industrial noise
                                                               Aircraft noise

Unlikely                                                       Chronic chemical pollution                                               Whaling#
                                                               Acute chemical discharge
Rare or unknown                                                                                                Overharvesting of prey

* Given the behavioural impacts of noise on southern right whales are largely unknown, a precautionary approach has been taken regarding assignation of possible consequences.
# Within the Australian Whale Sanctuary it is an offence to kill, injure, take, trade, keep, move or interfere with a cetacean. Currently no country is whaling southern right whales.

Table 6: South-east Population Residual Risk Matrix

Likelihood