Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555:body:0:p49
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2011a; Briscoe et al. 2016; McAlpine et al. 2015; Appendix 3). These populations may have traits and underlying genetics that mean they are better adapted to drought and heatwaves than are other Koala populations, and hence they are important to the survival of the Koala into the future (Kjeldsen et al. 2016; Lunney et al. 2017). Work is underway to determine which populations have traits that provide greater resilience to drought and heatwaves and to develop conservation actions for their persistence (Seddon and Schultz 2020). Isolated individuals may survive in local climate refugia, where microclimates, groundwater and habitat characteristics are favourable (Lunney et al. 2017; McLaughlin et al. 2017; Seabrook et al. 2014a).
Where ecosystems are already stressed from habitat modification and degradation, climate change is likely to exacerbate those stresses (Mac Nally et al. 2009; Steffen et al. 2009). Other processes interacting with climate change to impact the Koala include reduced fecundity brought about by stress (Lunney and Hutchings 2012; Davies et al. 2013); increased disease rates (Lunney et al. 2014); changes in the distribution and availability of their preferred tree species (Adams-Hosking et al. 2012; Drielsma et al. 2017; Hughes et al. 1996; Shabani et al. 2019); and altered fire regimes (section 19.3).
Furthermore, historic and ongoing habitat loss and degradation intensifies the effects of climate change on Koala populations by reducing the availability of climate-suitable habitat (Smith et al. 2013; Sullivan et al. 2004). Victoria, which holds unlisted populations of Koala, will become increasingly important as a habitat stronghold (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a).
Table 3. Estimated losses of Koala distribution due to climate change under a high global-emissions scenario (A1FI or RCP8.5). Estimates are summarised across 13 projections of future Koala habitat (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a, Briscoe et al. 2016)
These estimates consider the impacts of climate-change driven changes to droughts and heatwaves but not fire. Note that the magnitude of climate change by 2030 is relatively insensitive to future emissions. Estimates represent the change in area that was climatically suitable for the Koala based on conditions for the period 1961–1990 (Adams-Hosking) or 1991–2009 (Briscoe), and compared to the area that is expected to be climatically suitable for Koala in 2030, 2050 and 2070, within areas where Koalas or their habitat are known or likely to occur (DAWE 2021a). Negative values indicate a gain in climatically suitable area.
Population        Median % loss by 2030 (min, max)   Median % loss by 2050 (min, max)  Median % loss by 2070 (min, max)
Listed Koala      20.9 (0, 48.7)                    35.2 (0, 67.4)                     45.2 (0, 83.3)
Queensland        29.9 (0, 78.4)                    58.4 (0, 97.6)                     67.8 (0, 99.5)
New South Wales   11 (0, 23.6)                      19 (0, 45.3)                       25.4 (0, 69.3)
ACT               0 (-9.1, 5.1)