Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287:reg:3:p81
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2025L00287
Segment Type: reg
Provision Reference: reg 3 (pt 81/276)
Character Range: 319117–322249

under consideration are equally important; and 2) the goal is to minimise the number of extinctions over the long term.
The tool uses 'expected extant years' as the measure of benefit. The IUCN status definitions used are listed in Table 24.
Table 24 IUCN status definitions
IUCN status            Probability of extinction  Expected extant years (Di Fonzo et al. 2017)
Critically Endangered  50% chance over 10 years   15 years
Endangered             20% chance over 20 years   90 years
Vulnerable             10% chance over 100 years  950 years

The IUCN rules for assigning status used are listed in Table 25. For detailed methods and discussion on why these criteria were selected see Di Fonzo et al. (2017).
Table 25 IUCN rules for assigning status
Rule                                                                                        Critically Endangered  Endangered  Vulnerable
A. Decline in population size in the past 10 years, or 3 generations (whichever is longer)  ≥80%                   ≥50%        ≥30%
D. Population size of mature individuals                                                    <50                    <250        <1,000

Across the suite of threatened flora and fauna species, all management actions assessed were believed to have some benefit. However, outcomes were variable across species (Figure 3). Some animal species (including the Norfolk Island green parrot and Norfolk Island scarlet robin) and some plants (including Critically Endangered and Endangered trees and shrubs, Vulnerable vines, ferns and Vulnerable orchids) were assessed as likely to benefit greatly from continuation, at the same intensity, of the management programs being implemented in 2021. For many other species, or species groups, there was a predicted smaller increase. For a few species, including the Norfolk Island morepork and Critically Endangered orchids, while current management might be an essential foundation it was not by itself predicted to lead to any notable improvement in population status.
There were some clear conclusions from this analysis:
    * Existing programs should be continued. Continuation of existing management is expected to greatly benefit some threatened plants and animals and provide a foundation for conservation of others.
    * The level of management intensity in 2021 was insufficient for many species, and efforts need to be increased.
    * Existing management, even at an enhanced level, will not be enough to help all species, particularly those like the Norfolk Island morepork and some orchids that have extremely small populations. Additional actions will be required to address risks to those species.
These results have been used to inform the selection of management actions and targets stated in this plan (Part 4—Management planning).
Figure 3 Predicted response after 10 years under 2021 management levels
EPBC Act listing categories shown: CR = Critically Endangered, EN = Endangered, and VU = Vulnerable
Response over 10 years for each individual species (or plant group) without management action (yellow bars, on the left of each column entry) and