Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L01095:body:0:p35
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2024L01095
Segment Type: other
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Character Range: 91788–94940

Australia's national reserve system is likely to increase with climate change (Martin et al. 2015).

Buffel grass invasion is also exacerbated by other threatening processes in arid and semi-arid environments, including cattle grazing (Fensham et al. 2013) and land clearing (Fensham et al. 2015).
4.2.8 Genetic management of small populations (inbreeding)
In addition to appearing to have been through population contraction and expansion in an ancient context, Malleefowl populations have an isolation-by-distance structure where individuals that are geographically closer end up being genetically more similar, as neighbouring populations are more likely to interbreed, potentially resulting in inbreeding depression (Cope et al. 2014).  Inbreeding depression may result in infertility, decreased fertility and other effects deleterious to subpopulation persistence.

On the Eyre Peninsula SA, habitat fragmentation from clearing and subsequent isolation has led to reduced gene flow and the differentiation of the isolated population (Stenhouse & Moseby 2023). The differentiation was relatively small, suggesting its relatively recent development. This study also provides preliminary genetic evidence of female-biased dispersal in Malleefowl in fragmented landscapes. A genetic management plan needs to inform any translocation for the genetic rescue of populations to ensure genetic material is appropriate and adequate records are maintained.
4.2.9 Climate change
Australia is currently experiencing the impacts of climate change. The southwest and southeast of Australia have experienced drier conditions, with more frequent years of below average rainfall, especially for the cool season months of April to October (Commonwealth of Australia 2020). There has been an increase in extreme fire weather and in the length of the fire season across large parts of Australia since the 1950s, especially in southern Australia (Commonwealth of Australia 2020). Australia is projected to continue to get hotter into the future, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days (Commonwealth of Australia 2020).

Current predictions of the impacts of climate change on Australian biota provide considerable cause for concern. Projected changes in rainfall, temperature or fire regimes are likely to threaten Malleefowl over their entire range (Morton et al. 2009, Head et al. 2014). Modelling projections of the suitable habitat for Malleefowl under future climate change scenarios indicate that the species range is likely to contract in some regions, and in mallee habitats in general, particularly under high emissions scenarios (Bennett et al. 1991, Parsons 2008b). If these projected declines in the suitability of habitat are realised, substantial declines in Malleefowl populations are likely (Parsons 2008b).

Malleefowl populations may be influenced directly by changes in climate (Boyle and Hone 2012). Analysis of monitoring data indicates a significant, positive effect of winter rainfall on Malleefowl breeding behaviour to the extent that it can be considered a surrogate for population trend (Benshemesh et al. 2007; Benshemesh