Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2016L01397:body:0:p10
Version: federal_register_of_legislation:F2016L01397
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Character Range: 25262–28291

2015) (Rowley and Alford, 2013) should be further investigated. This knowledge could be used to improve management strategies, which are important for ensuring successful reintroductions and long term threat abatement.
As chytrid fungus strains vary in virulence (Rosenblum et al., 2013), understanding the differences in strains, mapping their location and reducing the risk of spread between infected areas is also important (Murray et al., 2011b).  Developing a greater understanding of how the impacts of chytridiomycosis on infected wild populations can be better mitigated would help reduce the impact of the disease.
Monitoring and surveillance is necessary to:
    * determine the impact of the disease on frog populations, including those populations that appear to be recovering naturally;
    * detect new outbreaks in currently uninfected populations or locations of unknown disease status; and
    * monitor the progress and success of management strategies (including broader environmental conditions) in order to provide the necessary feedback for adaptive management.

1.5. Climate Change

It is difficult to predict how a changing climate will impact the threat posed by the chytrid fungus, but it is likely that the distribution of the fungus and virulence of chytridiomycosis disease will be somewhat altered as temperatures increase and rainfall patterns change. Further, environmental conditions have strong effects on host-pathogen dynamics (Woodhams and Alford, 2005). With predicted average temperature increases of between 1°C and 5°C in Australia by the year 2070 (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2007–2012), it is possible that chytrid fungus will extend into areas that were previously unsuitable for the establishment of the pathogen. In contrast, some areas predicted to have higher temperatures and reduced rainfall could become less conducive to the disease. Some models suggest that higher temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the range suitable for chytrid fungus, as some areas will become too warm for chytrid development and transmission, although range expansion may occur in the long term (Rodder et al., 2010).

The effects of climate change are likely to be variable among species and sites. For example, increases in cloud or canopy cover could increase the effects of the disease on susceptible individuals (Puschendorf et al., 2011) but higher temperatures may lower the overall mortality rate (Rowley and Alford, 2013). The effect that changes in hydrology may have on the impact of chytrid fungus on susceptible amphibians (Sapsford et al., 2013) is even harder to predict than changes in air temperature. Additionally, the impacts of climate change, such as higher temperatures, more erratic rainfall, more disease vectors and reduction in the food supply (i.e. insects), may also increase amphibian susceptibility to chytrid fungus, due to potential increases in background environmental stress.

2. Objectives and actions
The overarching goal of this TAP is to