Document ID: chunk:federal_register_of_legislation:F2022L00555:body:0:p112
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made for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 (Table 1). Estimates are summarised across 13 projections of future Koala habitat (Adams-Hosking et al. 2011a, Briscoe et al. 2016). Note that climate change in 2030 is relatively insensitive to future emissions. These estimates can be interpreted as representing areas that fall within the physiological tolerance of Koalas, accounting for weather conditions including drought and heatwave but not fire. These estimates were calculated from 13 projections of future Koala distribution, chosen to represent variation in future climate and emissions scenarios and in variables chosen to represent Koala physiological tolerance. All projections predict range contraction of the Koala, though there is uncertainty around where the western and northern edges of Koala distribution will fall at a given time. Several models predict that bioregions known to contain Koala populations, including Mulga Lands, Darling Riverine Plains, and Mitchell Grass Downs, are currently unsuitable for Koalas, based on 1961–1990 or 1990–2009 climate conditions (Table 1).
Estimates represent the change in area that was climatically suitable for Koala based on conditions for the period 1961–1990 (Hoskings) 1991–2009 (Briscoe), and compared to the area that is expected to be climatically suitable for Koala in 2030, 2050 and 2070, within areas where Koalas or their habitat are 'known' or 'likely' to occur (DAWE 2021a). Estimates are summarised for IBRA7 bioregions (DoTE 2012). Negative values indicate a gain in climatically suitable area. The variables used to construct each model are summarised in Table 2.
Table 1. Estimated changes to Koala distribution due to climate change under a high global-emissions scenario (A1FI or RCP8.5), summarised across 13 models of Koala distribution for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070.
Queensland Bioregions       Median % loss by 2030 (min, max)  Median % loss by 2050 (min, max)  Median % loss by 2070 (min, max)  Number of models predicting this bioregion to historically hold
                                                                                                                                  <1000ha of climatically suitable for Koalas
Brigalow Belt North         57.1 (0, 97.5)                    91.1 (0, 100)                     95.3 (0, 100)                     0
Brigalow Belt South         36.8 (0, 85.3)                    80.3 (0, 99.6)                    91.3 (0, 100)                     0
Central Mackay Coast        11.7 (0, 95.1)                    65.9 (0, 100)                     84.8 (0, 100)                     1 of 13
Darling Riverine Plains     98.1 (0, 100)                     100 (0, 100)                      100 (0, 100)                      6 of 13
Desert Uplands              100 (0, 100)                      100 (0, 100)                      100 (-100, 100)                   0
Einasleigh Uplands          20.7 (-27.8, 0.9)                 29.6 (-29.7, 100)                 57.3 (-35.9, 100)                 7 of 13
Mitchell Grass Downs        0 (0, 0)                          0 (0, 0)                          0 (0, 0)                          11 of 13
Mulga Lands                 0 (0, 100)                        0 (0, 100)                        0 (0, 100)                        9 of 13
Nandewar                    0 (0, 51)                         8.9 (0, 94.9)                     30.5 (0, 99.8)                    0
New England Tablelands      0 (0, 0.1)                        0 (0, 15.2)                       0 (0, 75.6)                       0