OusiaResearch/aurelia-federation-causal

Aurelia — Federation Causal Graph (Events + Edges)

Cross-world and federation-level causal events (events.parquet) plus the causal edges (edges.parquet) that connect them. The federation graph captures trade shocks, migrations, cultural diffusion, and diplomatic relations across the five Aurelian worlds. Edges are filtered to the federation events in this run.

Provenance

This dataset was generated by Aurelia, a multi-agent civilization simulation operated by Ousia Research. The data in this repository is fully synthetic — no real humans, places, or events are referenced. The simulation engine, schema, and reproducible configurations are all open-sourced; see the GitHub repository for replay instructions.

The five Aurelian worlds (arkos, mirithane, solara, valdris, verge) interact through a federation layer that schedules cross-world effects (trade shocks, migrations, cultural diffusion, diplomatic relations). Each world runs an independent agent-based simulation of NPCs with goals, factions, institutions, and macro-level state transitions.

Schema

Primary file: data/<run_id>/events.parquet + data/<run_id>/edges.parquet

column	type	description
events.event_id	string	Federation event id (primary key)
events.tick_number	int64	Simulation tick
events.world_id	string	Always 'federation' for these events
events.layer	string	Always 'federation' for these events
events.event_type	string	Type: cross_world_movement, cultural_diffusion, diplomatic_*, etc.
events.actor_ids	list	World ids that triggered
events.target_ids	list	World ids affected
events.magnitude	float32	Magnitude
events.valence	float32	Signed valence
events.payload	object	Type-specific extra fields (source_world, target_world, etc.)
edges.parent_event_id	string	FK to events.event_id
edges.child_event_id	string	FK to events.event_id
edges.relation	string	Edge type (e.g. migration_to_cultural_change)
edges.weight	float32	Edge weight in [0, 1]

Runs included

run_id	total rows	breakdown
phase11-100y	30,139	phase11-100y/edges.parquet=3,066, phase11-100y/events.parquet=27,073
phase11-200y	42,277	phase11-200y/edges.parquet=3,629, phase11-200y/events.parquet=38,648
phase11-bolster-scan-y5	6,061	phase11-bolster-scan-y5/edges.parquet=711, phase11-bolster-scan-y5/events.parquet=5,350
phase11-cf-solara-aid	6,061	phase11-cf-solara-aid/edges.parquet=711, phase11-cf-solara-aid/events.parquet=5,350
phase11-density-100y	29,595	phase11-density-100y/edges.parquet=3,644, phase11-density-100y/events.parquet=25,951

Total rows across runs: 114,133 (100K<n<1M bucket).

To load a specific run, point data_files at the run's directory.

Loading

from datasets import load_dataset
events = load_dataset(
    'parquet',
    data_files='aurelia-federation-causal/data/phase11-100y/events.parquet',
)['train']
edges = load_dataset(
    'parquet',
    data_files='aurelia-federation-causal/data/phase11-100y/edges.parquet',
)['train']
print(events[0])
print(edges[0])

Run provenance map

Each run_id corresponds to a deterministic Aurelia simulation with a specific configuration. See the Aurelia Phase 11 comparison report for the demographics and population coefficient-of-variation across these runs.

run_id	config	years	density_diversification
phase11-bolster-scan-y5	baseline (5y)	5	0.0
phase11-100y	baseline (100y)	100	0.0
phase11-200y	baseline (200y)	200	0.0
phase11-density-100y	density-diversification (100y)	100	0.7
phase11-cf-solara-aid	counterfactual: solara federation aid early	5	0.0 (counterfactual intervention)

Licensing

Released under CC-BY-4.0. You may use, share, and adapt the data for any purpose, including commercial, with attribution. Attribution: "Aurelia Simulation Dataset, Ousia Research, 2026."

If you use this dataset in a publication, please cite the companion technical report and link back to the Aurelia repository.

Limitations

• The simulation models abstract civilization dynamics; it is not a forecast of any real-world society.
• All names, world ids, and event labels are fictional.
• The number of NPCs is small (≤ 200 active per world) by design — this is a micro-society scale, not a planet-scale demographic model.
• Results are sensitive to RNG seed and engine version; pin both when reporting.