instruction stringlengths 227 1.39k | output stringlengths 542 733 |
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Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump use the US military to assist in carrying out mass deportations in 2025
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-08
Context: Creator: Rolledupaces
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump use the US military to assist in carrying out mass deportations in 2025' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Rolledupa... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-16
Context: Creator: MikhailTal
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: MikhailTal
SYNTHESIS: Base... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-06
Context: Creator: BoltonBailey
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: BoltonBailey
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% →... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-17
Context: Creator: EvanDaniel
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: EvanDaniel
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted towar... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-28
Context: Creator: FergusArgyll
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: FergusArgyll
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adju... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-01
Context: Creator: Jessef0226
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Jessef0226
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Iran retaliate against Israel within 72 hours?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-13
Context: Creator: strutheo
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Iran retaliate against Israel within 72 hours?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: strutheo
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adju... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel 🇮🇱 try to assassinate Ahmed Al Sharaa 🇸🇾?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-08-01
Context: Creator: PoliticalEconomyPK
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel 🇮🇱 try to assassinate Ahmed Al Sharaa 🇸🇾?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: PoliticalEconomyPK
SYNTHESIS: Base ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Angel Reese makes her first shot attempt against the Connecticut Sun on June 15
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-15
Context: Creator: JudeCroissant
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Angel Reese makes her first shot attempt against the Connecticut Sun on June 15' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: JudeCroissant... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-22
Context: Creator: Incompleteusern
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Incompleteusern
SYNTHESIS: Base rate ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the US move forward with constructing the "Golden Dome" in 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-11-05
Context: Creator: shankypanky
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the US move forward with constructing the "Golden Dome" in 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: shankypanky
SYNTHESIS:... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Ayatollah Kamenei Flee Iran before Feb 6 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-06
Context: Creator: LarsOsborne
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Ayatollah Kamenei Flee Iran before Feb 6 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: LarsOsborne
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → ad... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Iran hit Israel within 1 month of being attacked by them?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-07-20
Context: Creator: NicolausAllen
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Iran hit Israel within 1 month of being attacked by them?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: NicolausAllen
SYNTHESIS: Base ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: US bombs Iran in June 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-22
Context: Creator: adhoum
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'US bombs Iran in June 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: adhoum
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 99% based on q... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will S&P 500 futures be higher at the end of Trump’s Iran address than at the start?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-02
Context: Creator: Simon74fe
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will S&P 500 futures be higher at the end of Trump’s Iran address than at the start?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Simon74f... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine be a direct result of the meeting in Alaska between Trump and Putin?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-08-21
Context: Creator: DrewReynolds
Provide a calibrated probability with full reaso... | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine be a direct result of the meeting in Alaska between Trump and Putin?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Contex... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Tariffs on China above 150% by end of June
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-30
Context: Creator: Odoacre
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Tariffs on China above 150% by end of June' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Odoacre
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-01
Context: Creator: Goodgulf
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Goodgulf
S... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will France recognize Palestine by EOY2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-22
Context: Creator: Samaritan
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will France recognize Palestine by EOY2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Samaritan
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted to... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump declare victory in the Iran war before the 2026 midterms?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-16
Context: Creator: Terminator2
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump declare victory in the Iran war before the 2026 midterms?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Terminator2
SYNTHESIS: ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will America bomb Iran in 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-22
Context: Creator: Bandors
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will America bomb Iran in 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Bandors
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 99% based... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-28
Context: Creator: adhoum
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: adhoum
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 99% based... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Iran hit Israel within 11 months of being attacked by them?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-01
Context: Creator: NicolausAllen
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Iran hit Israel within 11 months of being attacked by them?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: NicolausAllen
SYNTHESIS: Ba... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel announce annexation of Area C in the West Bank before June 30, 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-07-01
Context: Creator: DanielePaserman
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel announce annexation of Area C in the West Bank before June 30, 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: DanielePaser... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Is grokipedia.fun related to xAI or Elon Musk?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-28
Context: Creator: SqrtMinusOne
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Is grokipedia.fun related to xAI or Elon Musk?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: SqrtMinusOne
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjust... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Iran Government falls before end of March 2026
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-31
Context: Creator: ScottO
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Iran Government falls before end of March 2026' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: ScottO
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted tow... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Iran knocks down building in major Israeli city in the next three months?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-14
Context: Creator: Bandors
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Iran knocks down building in major Israeli city in the next three months?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Bandors
SYNTHESIS: ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by January 31, 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-30
Context: Creator: ac
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by January 31, 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: ac
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37%... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-12-31
Context: Creator: AlexanderTheGreater
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: AlexanderTheGreater
SYNTHESIS: Base ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will I achieve <12 hours of browsing per week on average for the rest of summer (23 Jun 2025 to 22 Sep 2025)?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-22
Context: Creator: ookina_inu
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning ... | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will I achieve <12 hours of browsing per week on average for the rest of summer (23 Jun 2025 to 22 Sep 2025)?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Russia joins the Board of Peace by March 31?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-01
Context: Creator: predyx_markets
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Russia joins the Board of Peace by March 31?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: predyx_markets
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjust... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Russian crewed aircraft shot down in NATO airspace by 2026-03-19?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-20
Context: Creator: EvanDaniel
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Russian crewed aircraft shot down in NATO airspace by 2026-03-19?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: EvanDaniel
SYNTHESIS: Base ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: EU country to sanction Israel by end of year?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-01
Context: Creator: GODPROPLAYZ
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'EU country to sanction Israel by end of year?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: GODPROPLAYZ
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjuste... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-31
Context: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
SYNTHESI... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-04-20
Context: Creator: Bayesian
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Baye... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will israel weapons strike targets inside Iran by end of March 31, 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-28
Context: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will israel weapons strike targets inside Iran by end of March 31, 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
SYNTHE... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-21
Context: Creator: BTE
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: BTE
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted towar... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: The US Government expresses support for Iranian regime
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-07-01
Context: Creator: trevortaylor
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'The US Government expresses support for Iranian regime' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: trevortaylor
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will this Iran business be a war or just a casual takeover?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-04
Context: Creator: realDonaldTrump
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will this Iran business be a war or just a casual takeover?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: realDonaldTrump
SYNTHESIS: Base ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2024-01-01
Context: Creator: Gigacasting
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023? ' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Gigacasting
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Trump cabinet member leaves before UN Ambassador confirmation?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-19
Context: Creator: Marnix
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Trump cabinet member leaves before UN Ambassador confirmation?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Marnix
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will "BTS The comeback live | Arirang" crash Netflix?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-28
Context: Creator: jgyou
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will "BTS The comeback live | Arirang" crash Netflix?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: jgyou
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjust... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will there be a South Korea season of Jet Lag before 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-11
Context: Creator: JoshuaWilkes
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will there be a South Korea season of Jet Lag before 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: JoshuaWilkes
SYNTHESIS: Base rate... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Macron mention Japan while he is in China?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-05
Context: Creator: JoshuaWilkes
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Macron mention Japan while he is in China?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: JoshuaWilkes
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjus... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: US sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes before EOY 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-07-30
Context: Creator: BernardoChrispimBaron
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'US sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes before EOY 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: BernardoChrispimBaron
SYNTHESIS: Base r... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Jim Tressel run for governor of Ohio in 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-29
Context: Creator: DanielMoulthrop
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Jim Tressel run for governor of Ohio in 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: DanielMoulthrop
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% →... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will I be awarded the NSF GRFP this year?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-17
Context: Creator: MarcoBazzaniOQdE
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will I be awarded the NSF GRFP this year?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: MarcoBazzaniOQdE
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjuste... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-29
Context: Creator: RemNi
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: RemNi
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjust... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump threaten to pull US out of NATO while at Davos this month?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-25
Context: Creator: JeffBerman
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump threaten to pull US out of NATO while at Davos this month?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: JeffBerman
SYNTHESIS: B... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: 1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2023-12-31
Context: Creator: ACXBot
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing '1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: ACXBot
SYNTHESIS: Base rat... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Iran-Israel war before 2028?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-16
Context: Creator: Grothenfla
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Iran-Israel war before 2028?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Grothenfla
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 95% based... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2023-12-31
Context: Creator: Heaffey
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Heaffey
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → a... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: [short fuse] US boots on the ground in Iran during Easter?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-06
Context: Creator: brod
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing '[short fuse] US boots on the ground in Iran during Easter?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: brod
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → a... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2023-01-01
Context: Creator: jack
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: jack
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel become more authoritarian in 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-11
Context: Creator: cash
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel become more authoritarian in 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: cash
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted towar... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Trump blames Biden for Israel-Iran escalation? [within 2weeks]
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-28
Context: Creator: shankypanky
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Trump blames Biden for Israel-Iran escalation? [within 2weeks]' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: shankypanky
SYNTHESIS: Base ra... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Chinese military parade on September 3, 2025, features marching humanoid robots
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-03
Context: Creator: JakeDee
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Chinese military parade on September 3, 2025, features marching humanoid robots' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: JakeDee
SYNTH... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: 2025 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to individual or organization primarily focused on climate change
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-10
Context: Creator: Lobstertronic
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing '2025 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to individual or organization primarily focused on climate change' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creat... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2024-01-01
Context: Creator: Haws
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Haws
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Gregory Bovino out of Border Patrol by the end of 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-17
Context: Creator: Sketchy
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Gregory Bovino out of Border Patrol by the end of 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Sketchy
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → a... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-14
Context: Creator: DanielFox9fff
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: DanielFox9fff
SYNTHESIS... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Grok 4 in top left of Artificial Analysis' cost to run vs intelligence chart?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-08-01
Context: Creator: robert
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Grok 4 in top left of Artificial Analysis' cost to run vs intelligence chart?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: robert
SYNTHESI... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-01
Context: Creator: predyx_markets
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: predyx_markets
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → ad... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel announced a plan to annex Gaza before September?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-09-03
Context: Creator: ElijahRavitzCampbell
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel announced a plan to annex Gaza before September?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: ElijahRavitzCampbell
SYNTHESIS: ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will United States military get involved in Iran and Israel war
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-22
Context: Creator: trevortaylor
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will United States military get involved in Iran and Israel war' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: trevortaylor
SYNTHESIS: Base... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2024-01-01
Context: Creator: MetaculusBot
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: MetaculusBot
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 1%... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Dan win the BOTY (Buddy Of the Year) award this year again?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2022-12-31
Context: Creator: DaniQin
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Dan win the BOTY (Buddy Of the Year) award this year again?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: DaniQin
SYNTHESIS: Base rat... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Russia successfully remove Ukrainian troops from Kursk region by end of year?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2024-12-31
Context: Creator: Xnikstar
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Russia successfully remove Ukrainian troops from Kursk region by end of year?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Xnikstar
S... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-14
Context: Creator: CarmelHadar
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: CarmelHadar
SYNTHESIS: Base ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: will manifold crack down on weekly poll rewards by EOY 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-01
Context: Creator: Wott
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'will manifold crack down on weekly poll rewards by EOY 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Wott
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Israel attacks Iran by January 31st, 2026
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-30
Context: Creator: adhoum
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Israel attacks Iran by January 31st, 2026' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: adhoum
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 2... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Israel-Hamas ceasefire lasts at least a month?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-28
Context: Creator: Gemc
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Israel-Hamas ceasefire lasts at least a month?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Gemc
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted towar... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-31
Context: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted tow... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will USA attack Iran before march
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-28
Context: Creator: ConsCoz
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will USA attack Iran before march' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: ConsCoz
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 99% bas... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Iran kill any US citizens in retaliation for the recent attack before June 24?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-24
Context: Creator: SaviorofPlant
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Iran kill any US citizens in retaliation for the recent attack before June 24?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: SaviorofP... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Trump will nuke Iran by 8pm EST 10 April 2026
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-13
Context: Creator: MichaeldelaMaza
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Trump will nuke Iran by 8pm EST 10 April 2026' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: MichaeldelaMaza
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adju... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump attack Iran's infrastructure before April 13th
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-12
Context: Creator: Meek
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump attack Iran's infrastructure before April 13th' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Meek
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adj... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Iran strikes Israel by 20:00 IST 14/06/2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-13
Context: Creator: DanielFox9fff
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Iran strikes Israel by 20:00 IST 14/06/2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: DanielFox9fff
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjust... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump attack Iran before the current wave of protests fizzles out?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-20
Context: Creator: SaviorofPlant
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump attack Iran before the current wave of protests fizzles out?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: SaviorofPlant
SYNTHES... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Denmark recognizes the State of Palestine before November 18, 2025
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-11-17
Context: Creator: VonGadke
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Denmark recognizes the State of Palestine before November 18, 2025' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: VonGadke
SYNTHESIS: Base r... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: [SHORT FUSE] Was an F-35 lost over Iran on April 2nd/3rd?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-04-04
Context: Creator: AIBear
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing '[SHORT FUSE] Was an F-35 lost over Iran on April 2nd/3rd?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: AIBear
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → a... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the U.S. conduct air or missile strikes against Iran again before Sunday January 18th?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-17
Context: Creator: MikhailTal
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the U.S. conduct air or missile strikes against Iran again before Sunday January 18th?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: M... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2023-12-31
Context: Creator: BTE
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: BTE
SYNTHESIS: Base r... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by March 31, 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-28
Context: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by March 31, 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: IrmiPolonsky
SYNTHESIS: Base... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump declare the Iran war to be won in the next month?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-13
Context: Creator: CommanderKeen
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump declare the Iran war to be won in the next month?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: CommanderKeen
SYNTHESIS: Base r... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2024-01-01
Context: Creator: JoaoPedroSantos
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: JoaoPedroSantos
SYNTHESIS: Base... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-31
Context: Creator: vdb
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: vdb
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted towa... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-10-09
Context: Creator: HillaryClinton
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: HillaryClinton
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted tow... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense in 2025?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-12-31
Context: Creator: 5bd4
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense in 2025?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: 5bd4
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted towar... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: US attacks Iran again by week's end?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-29
Context: Creator: DanBow899
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'US attacks Iran again by week's end?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: DanBow899
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 3% ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Anthropic give the military unfettered access to Claude by Friday night?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-02-28
Context: Creator: Bayesian
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Anthropic give the military unfettered access to Claude by Friday night?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Bayesian
SYNTHE... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will someone say “Fuck Ice” And/Or “Free Palestine” at the Oscars?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-16
Context: Creator: Jack1
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will someone say “Fuck Ice” And/Or “Free Palestine” at the Oscars?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Jack1
SYNTHESIS: Base rate... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will there be a gaza ceasefire announcement in May 2025? 🇮🇱🇵🇸
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-01
Context: Creator: PoliticalEconomyPK
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will there be a gaza ceasefire announcement in May 2025? 🇮🇱🇵🇸' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: PoliticalEconomyPK
SYNTHESI... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Trump bomb Iran during his second term?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-22
Context: Creator: BlueDragon
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Trump bomb Iran during his second term?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: BlueDragon
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted ... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will the US military invade Venezuela and remove president Maduro from office before May, 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-04
Context: Creator: DrewReynolds
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will the US military invade Venezuela and remove president Maduro from office before May, 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creat... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Is Donald Trump going to say, "Should I exterminate Iran?"
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-20
Context: Creator: RubenMERLEY
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Is Donald Trump going to say, "Should I exterminate Iran?"' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: RubenMERLEY
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 3... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Minnesota senator shooter apprehended in the next two weeks?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2025-06-16
Context: Creator: Bandors
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Minnesota senator shooter apprehended in the next two weeks?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Bandors
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Is the Alex Pretti gun image real?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-01-27
Context: Creator: Quroe
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Is the Alex Pretti gun image real?' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: Quroe
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 93% base... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Will Iran or its proxies launch a successful strike on a US Navy carrier in the Indian Ocean by March 10, 2026?
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-11
Context: Creator: ShaneBo
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning c... | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Will Iran or its proxies launch a successful strike on a US Navy carrier in the Indian Ocean by March 10, 2026?' — key domain signals point toward a lower probability relative to base rate
- Context... |
Predict the probability of the following event resolving YES.
Question: Iran strikes Israel in Feb 2026
Category: geopolitics
Resolution deadline: 2026-03-01
Context: Creator: yeeta
Provide a calibrated probability with full reasoning chain. | BASE RATE: Historical frequency of similar geopolitics events resolving YES: 37%
EVIDENCE:
- Question factors: Analyzing 'Iran strikes Israel in Feb 2026' — key domain signals point toward a higher probability relative to base rate
- Context signals: Creator: yeeta
SYNTHESIS: Base rate 37% → adjusted toward 98% based o... |
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