Now part of AFOS's 7-case validated set (3 continents)
#1
by AFOS-Analytics1 - opened
This dataset joins AFOS's validated set: seven elections across three continents where we measure the gap between
prediction markets and registered polls and check it against the real ballot result.
The set: Peru and Colombia (2026), Chile, Germany and Canada (2025), United Kingdom and Mexico (2024).
The signal isn't always divergence — Colombia and Germany were near-zero convergence, validated all the same by the
result. Open and auditable, dual-licensed (CC BY 4.0 data, Apache 2.0 scripts).