New validated case: Canada 2025
#1
by AFOS-Analytics1 - opened
Prediction-market odds vs polls, cross-checked against the real result.
With the popular vote nearly tied, the market swung from ~85% Conservative to ~80% Liberal. The Liberals won the most seats. (Note: the market prices seats, polls measure vote share — the FPTP gap is part of the story.)
Part of an open 5-country library (Apache 2.0 + CC BY 4.0): Peru, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Canada. Hub:
https://afos-analytics.com/global — feedback welcome.