Papers
arxiv:2605.26029

CausaLab: A Scalable Environment for Interactive Causal Discovery Toward AI Scientists

Published on May 28
· Submitted by
Dylan
on May 29
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Abstract

CausaLab evaluates LLM agents on causal discovery by requiring both accurate predictions and faithful recovery of underlying causal mechanisms through synthetic experimental scenarios.

AI-generated summary

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Community

CausaLab turns “AI scientist” evaluation from a static quiz into a live laboratory: an LLM agent must study noisy measurement records, choose interventions on a controllable crystal, infer the hidden structural causal model, and transfer that mechanism to predict a held-out crystal’s frequency. Its key punchline is brutal: today’s strongest agents can often get the right answer without truly discovering the right cause—GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% prediction accuracy in one observational setting but only 0.471 all-edge causal F1—showing that predictive success and causal understanding are sharply separable. By scoring both final answers and recovered mechanisms over interactive trajectories, CausaLab exposes a central bottleneck for AI scientists: models still stop too early, commit to weak hypotheses, and struggle to revise causal theories from intervention evidence.

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