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Tesla deliveries this quarter? If Tesla has at least 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Tesla. | 0.47 | Kalshi |
Number of rate cuts this year? If the Fed does exactly 2 cuts of 25 basis points in 2024, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.3 | Kalshi |
Major earthquake this year? If a 7.0 or greater earthquake occurs by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from USGS. | 0.93 | Kalshi |
Fed rate cut by June? If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and June 12, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.41 | Kalshi |
Which big tech companies will do layoffs this year? If Netflix has a layoff event of at least 100 persons before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg. | 0.67 | Kalshi |
Fed meeting next month? If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.96 | Kalshi |
The First Omen Rotten Tomatoes score? If The First Omen has a Tomatometer score of above 75 on Apr 8, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.89 | Kalshi |
Fed funds rate next month? If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's May 01, 2024 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve Board of Governors. | 0.96 | Kalshi |
Abigail Rotten Tomatoes score? If Abigail has a Tomatometer score of above 75 on Apr 22, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.62 | Kalshi |
Core inflation in Mar 2024? (Core CPI YoY) If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.7% in the twelve months ending March 2024 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.28 | Kalshi |
CPI in Mar 2024? If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% in March 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.73 | Kalshi |
CPI on used cars in Mar 2024? If used car and truck prices increase by more than -1% in March 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.35 | Kalshi |
When will Argentina dollarize its economy? If Argentina has dollarized its economy by Dec 31, 2025, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg. | 0.13 | Kalshi |
Civil War Rotten Tomatoes score? If Civil War has a Tomatometer score of above 90 on Apr 15, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.45 | Kalshi |
Jobs numbers this month? If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 200000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from BLS. | 0.68 | Kalshi |
Biden 538 approval rating on Apr 10, 2024? If President Biden's approval rating according to FiveThirtyEight is between 39.2-39.6% on April 10, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FiveThirtyEight. | 0.26 | Kalshi |
How high will Bitcoin get this year? If the price of Bitcoin is Above 99999.99 by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CF Benchmarks. | 0.47 | Kalshi |
US bans TikTok this year? If TikTok is banned before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Press releases, memoranda, and other releases and orders by the U.S. federal government. | 0.14 | Kalshi |
Inflation this year? If the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items is between 2.0 to 2.9 in 2024 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.49 | Kalshi |
Fallout Season 1 Rotten Tomatoes score? If Fallout Season 1 has a Tomatometer score of above 75 on Apr 12, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.48 | Kalshi |
When will Bitcoin hit $100k? If the price of Bitcoin is Above 99999.99 by Dec 31, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CF Benchmarks. | 0.47 | Kalshi |
Rain in NYC this month? If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Apr 2024 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Weather Service. | 0.68 | Kalshi |
New Taylor Swift album hits #1 on Billboard Top 200? If The Tortured Poets Department is the #1 album on the Billboard Top 200 charts for May 04, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Billboard. | 0.99 | Kalshi |
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Rotten Tomatoes score? If Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes has a Tomatometer score of above 75 on May 13, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.41 | Kalshi |
Child Tax Credit expanded before election day? If a bill expanding the Child Tax Credit becomes law by Nov 4, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.21 | Kalshi |
Highest temperature in NYC today? If Megalopolis has a Tomatometer score of above 75 on Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.38 | Kalshi |
Challengers Rotten Tomatoes score? If Challengers has a Tomatometer score of above 90 on Apr 29, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.43 | Kalshi |
Number of tornadoes this month? If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Apr is above 200, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. | 0.52 | Kalshi |
Congress passes law to force TikTok sale? If Congress passes a law forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok or giving the President the power to do so by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.45 | Kalshi |
How high will Bitcoin get this month? If the price of Bitcoin is above 74999.99 by Apr 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CF Benchmarks. | 0.56 | Kalshi |
NASA lands on the moon? If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NASA. | 0.11 | Kalshi |
How many Oscars “Dune: Part Two” will win? If Dune: Part Two has won exactly 4 Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. | 0.18 | Kalshi |
Best LLM at the end of the year? If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LMSYS. | 0.6 | Kalshi |
Linda Yaccarino leaves X? If it's been announced that X will have a new CEO by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from X, Bloomberg. | 0.37 | Kalshi |
Harvard goes up in free speech ranking? If Harvard is above last place on FIRE's free speech rankings for 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FIRE. | 0.53 | Kalshi |
Which states will ban lab-grown meat? If Alabama bans the sale of cultivated meat before Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from State governments. | 0.65 | Kalshi |
ChatGPT-5 revealed this year? If GPT-5 has been created before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI. | 0.74 | Kalshi |
How high will the commercial real estate default rate get this year? If the delinquency rates for commercial real estate loans by the end of 2024 in any quarter are greater than 3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.49 | Kalshi |
Next Fed rate hike? If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.07 | Kalshi |
SpaceX Starship reaches orbit this year? If SpaceX's Starship has reached orbit on a mission before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg. | 0.84 | Kalshi |
Biden RCP approval rating on Apr 12, 2024? If President Biden's approval rating is between 41.7 and 41.9% at 11:00 AM on April 12, 2024 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from RealClearPolitics. | 0.414 | Kalshi |
GPT beaten by another LLM this year? If OpenAI no longer is the top ranked LLM before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LMSYS. | 0.74 | Kalshi |
Elon Musk richest man in the world again before May? If Elon Musk has become the wealthiest person in the world before May 1, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Forbes. | 0.03 | Kalshi |
University Presidents ousted this year? If it is announced that the president of MIT will leave by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Harvard, Penn, MIT. | 0.16 | Kalshi |
Top Artist on Spotify this year? If Taylor Swift is the most streamed Spotify artist in 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Spotify. | 0.89 | Kalshi |
Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO this year? If Elon Musk is no longer CEO of Tesla by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Tesla, Bloomberg. | 0.08 | Kalshi |
Number of MIT faculty Bill Ackman accuses of plagiarism this year? If more than 0 MIT faculty have been accused of plagiarism by Bill Ackman by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bill Ackman. | 0.39 | Kalshi |
Number of tropical storms this year? If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 20 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2024 and December 01, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. | 0.57 | Kalshi |
How many days will the government be shut down before July? If the government is shut down for more than 7 days, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management. | 0.01 | Kalshi |
How many launches will SpaceX have this year? If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Aviation Administration. | 0.72 | Kalshi |
Furiosa Rotten Tomatoes score? If Furiosa has a Tomatometer score of above 90 on May 27, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.32 | Kalshi |
April 2024 is the hottest April ever? If Apr 2024 is the hottest April ever, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NCEI. | 0.75 | Kalshi |
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature this year? If an eligible peer-reviewed journal has reported that a material is superconductive near room-temperature, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Condensed Matter Physics research. | 0.1 | Kalshi |
Measles cases this year? If the number of measles in 2024 is above 750, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CDC. | 0.53 | Kalshi |
Oscar nominations for Best Picture? If Megalopolis has been nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. | 0.46 | Kalshi |
Taylor Swift holds top 10 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 with new album release? If Taylor Swift holds the top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 by May 4, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Billboard. | 0.56 | Kalshi |
Border bill passes Senate before election day? If the Senate passes a border security bill (as defined in the rules) before Nov 5, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.14 | Kalshi |
New Spirit CEO this year? If Ted Christie is no longer CEO of Spirit by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg, Spirit. | 0.18 | Kalshi |
Hurricane hits New Orleans this year? If the National Weather Service reports a maximum sustained wind-speed of at least 74 miles per hour (corresponding to a hurricane category 1}} or stronger) in New Orleans that occurred between January 17, 2024 and November 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Weather Service, National Weather Service. | 0.3 | Kalshi |
Adam Neumann returns as WeWork CEO this year? If Adam Neumann is announced as the next permanent CEO of WeWork by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg. | 0.28 | Kalshi |
Oscar nominations for Best Actor? If Colman Domingo has been nominated for Best Actor at the 97th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. | 0.59 | Kalshi |
Unemployment this month? If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.6% in April 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.9 | Kalshi |
How long will The Tortured Poets Department's first streak as #1 album be? If The Tortured Poets Department has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 3 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Billboard. | 0.57 | Kalshi |
Tim Cook leaves Apple this year? If Tim Cook is no longer CEO of Apple by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Apple, Bloomberg. | 0.09 | Kalshi |
COVID high consequence variant reported this year? If the CDC has identified greater than variants of high consequence, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. | 0.08 | Kalshi |
TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? If AI is Time Person of the Year for 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from TIME. | 0.2 | Kalshi |
Next “Beyond the Spider-Verse” movie release date? If Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse's release date is announced as before Jun 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Variety. | 0.6 | Kalshi |
New Nintendo Console announced this year? If a new Nintendo console (other than another variation of the Nintendo Switch) has been announced before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Nintendo. | 0.84 | Kalshi |
Argentina central bank shuts down this year? If Argentina has abolished its central bank by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg. | 0.1 | Kalshi |
Capital gains tax increased this year? If a bill becomes law before 2025 that the effect of raising the top federal capital gains tax rate on net long-term capital gains to be strictly greater than 20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.05 | Kalshi |
US GDP growth in Q1 2024? If real GDP (as measured by the BEA's seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.4, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. | 0.51 | Kalshi |
SCOTUS authorizes kicking homeless people out of public property? If the Supreme Court rules that enforcement of generally applicable laws regulating camping on public property is constitutionally permissible, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Supreme Court. | 0.78 | Kalshi |
Next Harvard president? If John Manning is announced as the next permanent President of Harvard by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Harvard. | 0.35 | Kalshi |
Companies going bankrupt in Mar 2024? If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 40, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Standard & Poor's. | 0.59 | Kalshi |
How low will gas prices in California get this year? If average regular gas prices for CA are strictly lower than $4 by Dec 31, 2024 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. | 0.27 | Kalshi |
How many weeks will The Tortured Poets Department be #1 this year? If The Tortured Poets Department has had the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 for more than 7 Total weeks (including non-consecutive weeks), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Billboard. | 0.45 | Kalshi |
The Acolyte Rotten Tomatoes score? If The Acolyte has a Tomatometer score of above 82 on Jun 5, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.61 | Kalshi |
When will OpenAI achieve AGI? If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI. | 0.1 | Kalshi |
Commercial real estate defaults in Q1 2024? If the delinquency rates for commercial real estate loans in quarter 1 2024 is greater than 1.5% , then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.24 | Kalshi |
Google Search holds 90% market share this year? If Google Search's market share remains above 90% between Issuance and Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from StatCounter. | 0.88 | Kalshi |
Tech layoffs up this year? If there are more than 390,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED. | 0.39 | Kalshi |
New Taylor Swift original album announced this year? If a new original Taylor Swift album has been announced before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Taylor Swift. | 0.15 | Kalshi |
Rent price increase in NYC this year? If rent in NYC grows by more than 3.87 in December 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Zillow. | 0.39 | Kalshi |
Congress banned from trading stocks this year? If a Congressional stock trading ban becomes law between January 03, 2024 and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.05 | Kalshi |
New York Times settles OpenAI lawsuit? If the Times settles its copyright infringement lawsuit against OpenAI by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times. | 0.36 | Kalshi |
Deadpool 3 Rotten Tomatoes score? If Deadpool 3 has a Tomatometer score of above 84 on Jul 29, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.57 | Kalshi |
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? If the Southern District of New York has found OpenAI liable for copyright infringement (or any of the counts alleged by the Times), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Pacer. | 0.18 | Kalshi |
How high will Biden's 538 approval rating get by end of month? If, according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden's maximum approval rating is above 41 between Issuance and Apr 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FiveThirtyEight. | 0.417 | Kalshi |
Texas loses border fight with Feds? If Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals rules that the federal government did not unlawfully destroy Texan property (its border wire), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from PACER. | 0.56 | Kalshi |
Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor? If Samuel L. Jackson has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 97th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. | 0.37 | Kalshi |
Netflix subscriber growth this quarter? If Netflix adds 6 million subscribers or more in 2024 Q1, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Netflix. | 0.33 | Kalshi |
Government shuts down this year? If the government is shutdown at any 10:00 AM ET by 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management. | 0.18 | Kalshi |
Borderlands Rotten Tomatoes score? If Borderlands has a Tomatometer score of above 45 on Aug 12, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.39 | Kalshi |
How low will Biden's 538 approval rating get by end of month? If, according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden's minimum approval rating is below 38 between Issuance and Apr 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FiveThirtyEight. | 0.376 | Kalshi |
Ozempic and Wegovy prescriptions increase in Q1 2024? If prescriptions made for weight loss drugs (using semaglutide and tirzepatide) grow by 12% in Q1 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IQVIA. | 0.101 | Kalshi |
NYC Mayor gives $10k to more migrants? If NYC has expanded its program of prepaid debit cards for migrant families by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from City of New York. | 0.56 | Kalshi |
GPT-4.5 released this quarter? If GPT-4.5 has been released by Jun 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI. | 0.31 | Kalshi |
Tesla Optimus on sale before 2026? If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Tesla. | 0.25 | Kalshi |
Elden Ring: Shadows of the Erdtree Metacritic score? If the Metascore for Elden Ring: Shadows of the Erdtree is above 94 three days after release, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Metacritic. | 0.43 | Kalshi |
Universal's music returns to TikTok before July? If UMG and TikTok have made a deal that allows UMG music to return to TikTok by Jul 1, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg. | 0.25 | Kalshi |
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