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By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? Microsoft Research Lab Asia (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was moving some of its top AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research lab in Vancouver that would be organizationally aligned with MSR Asia (Financial Times). This followed a decision in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, the stripped-down version of the LinkedIn app that remained in China after LinkedIn decided to pull out of the country in 2021 (Reuters). However, Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has denied claims that Microsoft is planning to close their lab in China saying, “There has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda” (New York Times). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if Microsoft announces in a press release, statement by Microsoft executives, or other official communication that it is closing Microsoft Research Asia or moving the research lab to another country. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024, but the closure or relocation does not need to be effected by that date. The relocation of some MSR Asia staff without the closing of offices or cessation of operations in China will not be sufficient for resolution.

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Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? The chief of Myanmar's military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (Deutsche Welle). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (AP News). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (ABC Australia). Additional Reading: Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election (Center for Strategic and International Studies) Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls (Radio Free Asia) Resolution Criteria: This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.

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Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Recent conversations suggested that others, including Saudi Arabia, may soon join them (New York Times), but discussions paused after war broke out between Israel and Hamas (France 24). Examples of agreements that have established diplomatic relations include the peace treaties Israel signed with Egypt and Jordan, as well as the normalization agreements that Israel signed with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco as part of the Abraham Accords. Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve “Yes” if any of the following countries sign an agreement with Israel establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations: Afghanistan Algeria Bangladesh Brunei Comoros Djibouti Indonesia Iran Iraq Kuwait Lebanon Libya Malaysia Maldives Mali Niger Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan Somalia Syria Tunisia Yemen Note that a previous version of this question excluded Sudan from this list, and there was a separate question on the probability of Sudan and Israel signing a normalization agreement. Sudan is now included in the list of countries for this question, so Sudan and Israel signing a normalization agreement will count for resolution.

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Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon's national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group). Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve “Yes” if reputable open-source news reports indicate that the Lebanese parliament has appointed a president.

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Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? On 24 November 2023, a four-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began (AP News). This deal was later extended until 1 December 2023 (BBC, Jerusalem Post). On 19 June 2008, Israel and Hamas agreed to a six-month ceasefire that lasted until six Hamas militants were killed in an IDF operation in November that year (The Guardian, New York Times). Resolution Criteria: For this question to be resolved as “Yes”, Israel and Hamas must, before 1 December 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza, and the agreement must be in effect continuously for 30 days. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement. If there is a violation of the agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, but the violence stops and both sides return to the agreement, the count will be restarted and the question will be resolved 30 days from the date both parties return to the agreement, provided there are no further interruptions. Attacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question. If an agreement is signed before 1 December 2024, but does not go into effect until or after 1 December 2024, the question will be resolved as “Yes” if the ceasefire goes into effect and remains in effect for at least 30 days. Otherwise, the question will be resolved as “No”. If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered "an agreed-upon pause" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect. A one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered "an agreed-upon pause" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.

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Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months? Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched multiple drone and missile attacks against Israel since the war between Israel and Hamas began on 7 October 2023 (Reuters). Recent statements by the leader of the Houthi movements indicate that in addition to the attacks on Israeli territory, they intend to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea as well (Newsweek, AP News). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reports confirming that Houthi rebels executed an attack (e.g., bombs, missiles, drones, etc.) that struck an Israeli vessel. Attacks that are intercepted or otherwise fail to make impact with an Israeli vessel will not count towards resolution. This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition. Question clarification Issued on 12/01/23 02:51am For the purposes of this question, "an Israeli civil vessel" refers to any Israeli-flagged vessel or any Israeli-owned or -operated ship that the Israeli government acknowledges as an Israeli vessel. Additionally, "executing an attack" requires that a weapon strikes the vessel itself or passengers or crew members on that vessel.

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In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? Iran has faced significant social unrest in recent years, including 3 anti-government protests with at least 10,000 participants since 2019. Economic crisis in 2019 led the Iranian government to begin rationing gasoline and raise its price, causing protests to break out across the country (New York Times, BBC). Protests over water shortages began in 2021, as Iranians blamed mismanagement and corruption-ridden infrastructure projects for worsening the water scarcity caused by drought (Reuters, Time, RFE/RL). In 2022, Mahsa Amini, a young woman arrested by Iran's morality police for not wearing a hijab, died in custody, sparking widespread and long-lasting protests. The reason for her death is contested, as the Iranian government attributes her death to pre-existing medical conditions, but a UN human rights expert said the evidence established that she died "as a result of beatings” (BBC). These protests presented one of the most serious challenges to Iran's government, as they grew to include not just efforts to improve respect and freedom for women, but also calls to overthrow Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Atlantic Council). Both of these protests were met with severe responses from the Iranian government, leading to many protest-related arrests, deaths, and even executions, in the case of the Mahsa Amini protests (Human Rights Watch, Reuters). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using the Carnegie Endowment's Global Protest Tracker. You can find protests in Iran by scrolling down the alphabetical list of countries on the tracker's home page or by clicking Iran on the map. For more information about the Global Protest Tracker, including information about what data sources are used, how start dates are determined, and the challenges of estimating protest size, click the teal box labeled “About the Tracker” on the right-hand side of the page. The question will be resolved as “Yes” if a protest is recorded for Iran whose peak size is recorded as ">10,000" or greater and whose duration is "1 week" or longer. Protests against non-Iranian governments or organizations (e.g., protests against Israel and the U.S.) will not be considered. The Global Protest Tracker is updated monthly, and records the start date as the month the protest starts. If the Global Protest Tracker records a protest that meets the resolution criteria, the INFER team will use open source reports to determine the precise resolution date. If it is unclear when the 10,000 protestor threshold was reached, the resolution date will be set as the last day of the month. If an active protest grows to reach a peak size over 10,000, this question will be resolved using the date or month when it first reached that size. If a previous protest currently not listed as active with a peak size >10,000 restarts, INFER admins will use open source reports to determine whether the protests after November 2023 have also crossed the 10,000 participant threshold. This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

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Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? In recent months, Israel and Saudi Arabia had been in talks to discuss a normalization agreement between the two countries (USIP). Following the outbreak of Israel's war with Hamas, Saudi Arabia halted these conversations (France 24, Reuters). However, U.S. president Joe Biden believes that a normalization deal is still possible and says that Hamas may have attacked Israel to prevent Saudi Arabia from recognizing Israel (CBS News, Reuters). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using credible open source reports. For this question to be resolved as “Yes,” both Israeli and Saudi officials must publicly acknowledge that they are resuming normalization talks. If Israel and Saudi Arabia acknowledge that talks have resumed on different dates, this question will be resolved using the date of the second country's statement. This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

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Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). Militant groups in the region have already started launching rocket and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria (AP News) The U.S. responded with airstrikes targeting the militias in eastern Syria, and the militias responded with a drone attack against U.S. forces in western Iraq (AP News, New York Times). U.S. government officials have warned Iran to stop the attacks, but Iranian officials claim that the attacks are from groups that oppose “the U.S. presence in the region” and are the result of “wrong American policies” (Time, Times of Israel). Iran previously launched a ballistic missile attack against U.S. troops in Iraq in 2020 in retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani (AP News, BBC). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as “Yes” if U.S. Government officials (e.g., the President or Department of Defense officials) state with reasonable confidence that Iran has launched missiles or conducted an airstrike targeting U.S. forces. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as statements from the U.S. government officials indicate that they were targeting U.S. forces. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

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Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). While Iran has denied involvement in Hamas' attack and stated that it does not want the war to spread, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has warned that if Israel does not halt its airstrikes, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened” (Reuters, CNN). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reporting that Iran has launched missiles targeting Israel or conducted an airstrike in Israel. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as credible reports (including statements by either Iran or Israel) indicate that they were targeting Israel. Attacks on Israeli forces outside of Israeli territory or airspace will not be considered. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

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Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (CFR). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military coalition, while the Houthi movement has close ties to Iran and Hezbollah (CFR, Brookings). In April 2022, the United Nations negotiated a ceasefire between the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government (New York Times). The ceasefire was originally intended to last two months, but was extended twice before being allowed to lapse in October 2022 (IPS Journal, Brookings). Following Hamas' October 2023 attack, there are now concerns that the war between Hamas and Israel could push the Houthis closer to Iran and away from a new ceasefire agreement with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen (ISPI). Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using credible, open source reports that Yemen and the Houthi movement have signed a ceasefire. For the question to resolve “yes”, the ceasefire must be signed on or before 31 December 2024, last at least six months, and still be in effect on 31 December 2024. If a ceasefire is agreed upon, this question will be resolved either on 1 January 2025 or six months after the agreement is reached, whichever is later. A ceasefire originally intended to last less than six months but is extended to last longer than six months and lasts through the end of 2024 will still count towards resolution.

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