Datasets:

satpalsr

/

forsample

like 0

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Metaculus

Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Metaculus

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Metaculus

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Metaculus

By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?

Metaculus

Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?

Metaculus

Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?

Metaculus

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

Metaculus

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Metaculus

Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?

Metaculus

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Metaculus

Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?

Metaculus

Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?

Metaculus

Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060? According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/) However, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown. This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.

Metaculus

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25): >Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas's Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group. > >Officers of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel's borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said. However, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html): >In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That's something we're looking at very carefully, and we've got to see where the facts lead. Tensions between the US and Iran have been high in recent years following the [US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#U.S._denies_recertification_and_then_withdraws_(2017%E2%80%93present)) in 2017, the [US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani), and Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753) to levels approaching those needed to create a nuclear weapon. Some observers [have expressed fears of war](https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/are-us-and-iran-really-brink-war) between the two countries. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/) (UCDP) has been collecting data on organized violence for nearly 40 years. The UCDP tracks and categorizes conflicts and conflict deaths according to a [specific set of definitions](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/). The following sample of conflicts involving the US illustrate some of the different categorizations (note that these categorizations may not necessarily correspond to those specified in the resolution criteria): * The [2003 Iraq war](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/420) involved Australia, the UK, and the US [as primary parties on one side of the conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/420/1), with Iraq as the primary party on the other side. * In the [conflict between Yugoslavia and Kosovo](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/412) the NATO member countries, including the US, [are listed individually in 1999 as secondary warring parties](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/412/1) reflecting NATO's [bombing of Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia). * In the [conflict between Iran and Israel](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) the United States is [listed as a secondary warring party](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/14609/1#2020) starting in 2020 when the US assassinated Soleimani and [Iran's retaliatory attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani#IRGC_retaliatory_strike) against US military bases in Iraq. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined the following is true: * The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports that both the United States and Iran are primary parties on opposite sides of a conflict resulting in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). OR Both of the following are true: * The US government reports that at least 25 US military personnel have died as a result of military conflict with Iran (the deaths must be caused by conflict with Iranian combatants). * The conflict with Iran and the US on opposite sides is reported by the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) to have resulted in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's [methodology](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/methodology/) in calculating conflict deaths.

Metaculus

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034? [According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone) >The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). Most recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. See also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one) This question will resolve Yes if the New York Times, Associated Press, Seattle Times, Portland Tribune, Globe and Mail, or Vancouver Sun reports a 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone before January 1, 2034.

Metaculus

Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election? The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia. Sturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility. This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://www.aec.gov.au/) declares the result of this seat for the ALP candidate in the next Australian Federal Election. The question will resolve in the negative if any other party wins the seat, or other factors mean that nobody wins the seat.

Metaculus

Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory. As of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been [delayed](https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-diplomat-explains-gaza-ground-offensive-delay-is-no-bad-thing-to-avoid-hamass-deadly-trap-12991638#:~:text=Hamas%20took%20more%20than%20220,rest%20are%20still%20being%20held.) multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is [widely believed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have [suggested](https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-official-calls-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option-1833585) that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran. This question will resolve as **Yes** if reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that Israel has used nuclear weapons as an act of war before 12:00 AM on October 7, 2024. Any Israeli nuclear detonation occurring within territory *de facto* controlled by another state or group will resolve this question as Yes, unless that other nation unambiguously states that such a detonation was done with its government's consent. Nuclear detonations done as tests or accidents will not resolve the question as Yes, as well as those done in territory not *de facto* controlled by any group, such as international waters. A nuclear detonation occurring inside territory *de facto* controlled by Israel will resolve this question as Yes if at least one casualty (death or injury) occurs as a direct result of this detonation outside of this territory within a nation or area which unambiguously condemns Israel's actions within 30 days of this detonation occurring. If this does not occur by the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.

Metaculus

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030? Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from "biologics" or “non-human intelligence.” This was a notable change of terminology from “extraterrestrial” to allow for beings that originate or currently reside on Earth. [1]( https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1190390376/ufo-hearing-non-human-biologics-uaps) There is additionally more evidence being found in the archaeological record that ancient ancestors of homo sapiens may have built tools and shelters. [2](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66846772) Given the background of these recent events, what is the probability that evidence will be presented and accepted for the existence of a non-human intelligence on Earth at the present or sometime in the past? * For the context of this question, Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) means any life forms that demonstrate intelligence and excludes any life forms created by humans (Homo sapiens), including any AI systems created by humans or by AIs that derive from humans. Human-derivative AI intelligences are not the focus of this question. * Intelligence here is defined by the ability to build technology at least to the level of metallurgy. * Evidence for existence can include the recovery of NHI technology or biological material (bodies) that are indisputably non-human and intelligent * Evidence for presence on Earth means the technology or body was found within Earth's atmosphere (right now or anytime in the past). * Evidence is considered scientifically accepted if it is published in multiple peer-reviewed journals, or if multiple reputable sources unequivocally report the discovery of NHI.

Metaculus

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? [Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run. <iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F" width="640" height="480"></iframe> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/interactive-map-russias-invasion-ukraine) (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section. Russia must have control of **at least two** of the following locations: * Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000 * Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast * Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000 * Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000 * Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600 * Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000 * Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000 Russia must also have control of **all** of the following locations: * Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol * Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900 * Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600 * Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000 * Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700

Metaculus

Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html) This question resolves **Yes** based on credible reports that the German government has reduced the VAT rate for plant-based milks to the same VAT that is used for cow's milk, which is currently 7%. This change must be announced an implemented before January 1, 2025.

Metaculus

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).

Metaculus

Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030? Cornell professor [Russell Rickford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_J._Rickford) referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as [exhilirating](https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cornell-professor-takes-leave-of-absence-after-calling-hamas-attacks-exhilarating-and-energizing/). Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community [demanded](https://archive.ph/1jK3T) that Rickford be fired. A [petition](https://www.change.org/p/demand-cornell-university-to-terminate-associate-professor-russell-for-hate-speech) to fire him gathered thousands of signatures. Rickford has taken a leave of absence. Cornell is [committed](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) to protecting academic freedom. The [Faculty Statement on Academic Freedom and Responsibility](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) states: >Academic Freedom for the Faculty means: Freedom of expression in the classroom on matters relevant to the subject and the purpose of the course and of choice of methods in classroom teaching; from direction and restraint in scholarship, research, and creative expression and in the discussion and publication of the results thereof; to speak and write as a citizen without institutional censorship or discipline. . . >Academic freedom is valued very highly at Cornell, and the University Faculty defends it tenaciously; nevertheless, the same University Faculty is disinclined to see the concept abused. Academic freedom does not imply immunity from prosecution for illegal acts of wrongdoing, nor does it provide license for faculty members to do whatever they choose. In recent years, there has been significant controversy around free speech and academic freedom in the Ivy League, especially around the free speech of centrist and right-leaning professors. [Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) has [come](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/upenn-law-professor-racism-freedom-speech.html) [under fire](https://quillette.com/2023/03/06/amy-wax-and-academic-freedom/) for remarks that some people have perceived as racist, and the dean of Penn law has started a [faculty review process](https://archive.is/www.inquirer.com/news/amy-wax-penn-law-sanctions-20220118.html) that could lead to sanctions against her. [Joshua Katz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Katz_(classicist)) was [fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/princeton-fires-joshua-katz.html) by Princeton for a consensual relationship he had with a student in the mid-2000s, though many [suspect](https://quillette.com/2022/05/26/the-firing-of-joshua-t-katz/) the true cause is an [article](https://quillette.com/2020/07/08/a-declaration-of-independence-by-a-princeton-professor/) he wrote in Quillette. This question resolves positively if Cornell officially announces before January 1st, 2030, (such as through its website, its communication team, or its leadership) that Russell Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell or if credible sources report that Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell. Important to note: a leave of absence, whether paid or unpaid, would not trigger a positive resolution of the question.

Metaculus

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/): >Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention. > >When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus in an illegal or improper manner any time after October 7, 2023: * The United Kingdom * The United States * France * Germany * Japan * South Korea * Israel * The United Nations * The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) * Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source or commissioned by the same source each also count as one qualifying report * BBC * The Guardian * AP * Reuters The use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, including an assertion that the use was improper or illegal, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as **No**. The question will resolve as **No** if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.

Metaculus

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip. The next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.). >CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago. >"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages," Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza. >"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians," he added. The [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc) > My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank. > Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions. On November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said: > “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court," Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar. > “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added. This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu. Per the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works): - Genocide - Crimes against humanity - War crimes - Crimes of aggression - Offences against the administration of justice The ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.

Metaculus

Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry [tompouce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tompouce). News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on the hype and started selling crompouces, [as did supermarket chain Albert Heijn](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce). On the other hand, Hema (one of the most iconic stores that sell the traditional tompouce) started a humorous campaign that rejects the crompouce and advertises their classic tompouce. In [an interview published by newspaper AD on November 5th](https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/crompouce-leidt-tot-weerstand-in-bakkerswereld-je-kunt-overal-wel-room-tussen-stoppen~adee2d7a/), one baker said “I predict the hype is over in a few weeks”. Is the crompouce a fad, or is it here to stay? This question resolves positive if, on April 30, 2024, crompouces are available for purchase on ah.nl, the website of supermarket Albert Heijn.

Metaculus

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? #### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot) A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.  ####Current progress By 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services. Among China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024. ####For more details on China's progress see: * https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter * https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027 * https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate a robotics company with headquarters in China has manufactured more than a thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before the end of 2025.

Metaculus

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027? #### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot) > A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.  ####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)) > Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022. > Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said. > Musk said on X in May 2023 that the "Optimus Team is making excellent progress". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's "now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs." [The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. ####For more details on Tesla's progress see: * https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/ * https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T * https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.

Metaculus

Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability): >In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.” >. . . >On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” >. . . >It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court's longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court's decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari. A provision requiring women to register appeared in both the [2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829) and [2022](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-12-07/us-congress-covid-vaccine-8332200.html) versions of the Senate Armed Services Committee's proposed [National Defense Authorization Acts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act), but was ultimately removed each year. The question will resolve as **Yes** if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service before January 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from credible sources that women are required to register. To resolve as **Yes**, the law must take effect, resulting in women registering for the draft due to the requirement; a court decision or the enactment of a law that required women to register at a future date would not count until it came into effect, and a legal requirement to register on or after January 1, 2026 would not count.

Metaculus

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance. This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2024 but must at least be announced in 2024. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold. If TikTok is not sold before 2025, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2024, this question will resolve as No. If TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.

Metaculus

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? Israel has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt. The New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options. The question will resolve **Yes** based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025. Reports of displacement within Gaza - for instance, from the north to the south - are not sufficient to resolve this question.

Metaculus

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election). The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.) This question resolves **Yes** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 15% or more of the national popular vote, and **No** if one does not

Metaculus

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas) launched a deadly attack on Israel on the 7th of October 2023. Subsequently, Israel executed air strikes and military ground operations in Gaza. This question will resolve Yes if any member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force is charged by the International Criminal Court before January 1, 2027 for any crime in relation to Isreal's military actions in Gaza following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7th 2023. Per the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works): - Genocide - Crimes against humanity - War crimes - Crimes of aggression - Offences against the administration of justice The ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.

Metaculus

Will Pete Rose be reinstated by MLB by 2045? Pete Rose is the MLB hit champion with 4,256 career hits. He had an extended stint as a player and manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He was banned by Commissioner Bart Giamatti after an investigation revealed that he had gambled in games that he managed, although the reports produced no evidence that he ever bet against his team. Other plays banned from the game for gambling related offensives, such as "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, were never reinstated. He is still recognized and commemorated by the Reds since his number 14 has been retired. A positive resolution would occur if Pete Rose has been declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball before January 1, 2045. As for "reinstatement", a decree from Major League Baseball that explicitly declares that Pete Rose (specifically) or other banned individuals (generally but understood to be inclusive of Rose) can be admitted to the Hall of Fame without directly stating that Rose has been "reinstated" or declared "eligible" would count as a "reinstatement". This decree would have to come from Major League Baseball as it would not be sufficient for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum to allow Pete Rose to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Such as scenario can count as "reinstatement" only in the event that Pete Rose has died, since a deceased Pete Rose would not enjoy the other privileges that eligible people can enjoy, such as employment on the behalf of a professional baseball club affiliated with MLB. If Pete Rose is reinstated or posthumously declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball, but the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum does not admit Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame, that would be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Metaculus

Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). In a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said: > Mr. Altman's departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI. It is not yet known in what areas, or why, Altman was "not consistently candid" with the OpenAI board. This question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2026, Sam Altman has been indicted in the United States on any charge(s) alleging violation of state or federal law. The question resolves No if this does not occur.

Metaculus

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). In a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said: > Mr. Altman's departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI. In a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he would have news on next steps soon. Shortly thereafter, OpenAI President and Chairman of the Board Greg Brockman tweeted "[I quit](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1725667410387378559)." The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are either: 1. Cofounders of a new company that aims to train foundation models 2. Employees of an existing company that aims to train foundation models That company must not be OpenAI. They must both be cofounders or employees at the same company.

Metaculus

Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD. Since then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/). Adobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](https://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store. This question resolves as Yes if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2025.

Metaculus

Will Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028? On November 19th, 2023, Argentina [elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/) Javier Milei as President. His political party, [the Libertarian Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(Argentina)) will hold 7 of 72 seats in the upper house of Argentina's Congress and 38 of 257 in its lower house. Milei has promised to fully dollarize the economy and get rid of the Argentinean peso which means the US dollar (USD) would be the only state-recognized form of exchange in Argentina. De facto dollarization, where citizens partially or primarily conduct their business in USD is [arguably](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/) already the status quo in Argentina. This move is controversial among economists with [some](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-18/argentina-s-future-is-promising-with-the-dollar) in support due to what they see as irresponsible monetary policy by Argentina's central bank. It is opposed by [others](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy) who note the logistical issues with dollarizing and monetary sovereignty concerns. This question will resolve as Yes if, before, 00:00 on January 1, 2028, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Argentina has removed the peso as a medium of exchange and adopted the US dollar.

Metaculus

Will any "Freedom Cities" be built in the United States before 2040? Donald Trump, aiming for a 2024 presidential bid, proposed building up to [10 "freedom cities"](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/03/trump-policy-futuristic-cities-00085383) on federal land, featuring futuristic concepts like flying cars. > Trump says he would host a contest for the public to design and then build “Freedom Cities” on a small portion of federal land to “reopen the frontier, reignite American imagination, and give hundreds of thousands of young people and other people, all hardworking families, a new shot at home ownership and in fact, the American Dream.” This plan, part of his vision to lead America in air mobility and away from China, lacks detailed funding strategies. This question will resolve to **Yes** if the U.S. federal government approves a "Freedom City" before January 1, 2040, and credible reports indicate at least 10,000 people live in the city before that date. The city must be a new development and not a reclassification of an existing city. For the purposes of this question, a "Freedom City" will be any new city created on federal land that is the result of a competitive process to solicit new ideas for America's future.

Metaculus

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these contracts, aimed at hedging against economic risks from political changes, don't involve unlawful acts and are in the public interest. The CFTC declined to comment but previously expressed concerns about the contracts involving unlawful gaming and not being in the public's interest. The lawsuit claims the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act. This question will resolve **Yes** if either of the following occurs before November 1, 2024: 1. An initial litigated bench or jury verdict rules that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) overstepped its authority by rejecting KalshiEX LLC's proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. 2. A settlement is reached such that the proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control is approved. Otherwise, the question will resolve **No**

Metaculus

Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?

Metaculus

Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?

Metaculus

Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?

Metaculus

Will any country score in the top tier overall in the next Global Health Security Index?

Metaculus

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Metaculus

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

Metaculus

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

Metaculus

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Metaculus

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Metaculus

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Metaculus

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Metaculus

Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?

Metaculus

Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?

Metaculus

Will Mark Zuckerberg remain as CEO of Meta Platforms until October 21, 2031?

Metaculus

Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?

Metaculus

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

Metaculus

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain. SARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the resulting public health implications. These categories include Variants of Interest (VOI), Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of High Consequence (VOHC), and Variants Being Monitored (VBM). Each classification represents a different level of threat based on factors such as transmissibility, severity of disease, and impact on diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive measures. The detailed definitions and criteria for these classifications can be found on the [CDC's variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html). - A Variant of Concern (VOC) includes those that show increased transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., higher hospitalizations or deaths), or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination. - A Variant of High Consequence (VOHC), a more severe classification, is characterized by clear evidence of significantly reduced effectiveness of medical countermeasures. Currently no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOC or VOHC. The last VOC was Omicron, which emerged in November 2021 and caused a [worldwide wave](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron) of cases. At its peak, Omicron [exceeded 20,000 daily hospital admissions](https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/) in the United States for a period of approximately 2 weeks This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2023, and before July 1, 2025, all three of the following occur: 1. The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces or [classifies on CDC's SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) at least one new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point. 2. Daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States reach 20,000 or higher according to [data provided by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/tree/master/data-truth). 3. The surge of COVID hospitalizations (described in requirement 2) is attributed to the variant(s) (described in requirement 1) by the CDC or other credible sources. Not every hospitalization needs to be attributed to the variant(s) identified in requirement 1; it is sufficient if sources attribute the unusually large number of cases to the VOC(s).

Metaculus

Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows: >The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population. The underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy). In its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a "tripledemic" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022. This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses "epidemiological weeks" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024. To allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.

Metaculus

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070? [Relations between Morocco and Algeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations) have historically been rocky. [A brief war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_War) was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a [low-intensity conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. [Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/algeria-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-neighbouring-morocco-1.4655723), leading to [some speculation](https://www.memri.org/reports/always-approaching-never-arriving-war-between-algeria-and-morocco) about a [potential war.](https://politicstoday.org/morocco-algeria-tension-long-history-of-mistrust/) This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Morocco and Algeria (specifically, the category "state-based violence" occurring between the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria). For resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.

Metaculus

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070? In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a [border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) This was [the second time in as many years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, [there remains fears](https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-building-up-for-another-potential-round-of-fighting) about another, potentially larger round of hostilities. This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (specifically, the category "state-based violence" occurring between the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan). For resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.

Metaculus

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050? [Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China](https://www.foxnews.com/world/philippine-coast-guard-constructs-new-surveillance-base-south-china-sea-monitor-chinese-vessels) after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a [long series of disputes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Philippines_relations) between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with China. This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs: - There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. - There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. These 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period. This question will resolve as No otherwise.

Metaculus

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070? [Afghanistan and Pakistan have fought border skirmishes for many decades.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes#) [Some have suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/15/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-border-war/) that [war between the two countries](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/why-are-tensions-rising-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan/2954687) is likely now that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan. This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Afghanistan and Pakistan (specifically, the category "state-based violence" occurring between the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan). For resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.

Metaculus

If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces? Related questions on Metaculus: [Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/) [Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/) [If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20378/brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana/) With tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that the United States would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/) [There is historical precedent for this.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America) This question asks: will the United States fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela? If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion. In line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time. The United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the American government or American military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count

Metaculus

If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces? Related questions on Metaculus: [Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/) [Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/) [If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20377/us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030/) With tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that Brazil would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/) This is notable as Brazil has not fought any of its neighbors since the [Paraguayan War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War) This question asks: will Brazil fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela? If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if Brazil responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion. In line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time. Brazil will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the Brazilian government or Brazilian military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count

Metaculus

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028? ### Scope This is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called "President". ### Background Robert Kagan [recently wrote an article](https://web.archive.org/web/20231201202312/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/) noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie "[Civil War](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w)", featuring a three-term US President. Trump has said that if elected, he'll be [a dictator "only on day one"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall) in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling. [In 2020, he said](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/donald-trump-third-term-2024/index.html), "We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we'll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years." However, more recently, [Trump responded to DeSantis' statement](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208782-trump-rules-out-seeking-a-third-white-house-term-if-he-wins-reelection/) that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: "When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don't want that person." One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities. The [22nd Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/) prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The [12th Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-12/) says, "no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States." One might think that a twice-elected president would be "ineligible" for the role of Vice President, but because "eligibility" refers to [Article II, Section 1, Clause 5](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/#II_S1_C5), which specifically address whether a person is "eligible to the Office of the President," [it has been argued](https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_artchop/1012/) that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies. The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States in the 2024 Presidential Election, and is still exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029. The question resolves **No** if Trump does not win the 2024 election, or if Trump is not exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029. The term "supreme executive power," for the purposes of this question, is defined as any US government office with powers equivalent to or superseding the presidency, including the presidency itself.

Metaculus

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027? The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies. If a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese firms start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/). Currently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips. This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 domestically designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.

Metaculus

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027? The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies. If a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer fails to become competitive enough at the high end for Chinese firms to start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has failed to hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI will continue to be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/). Currently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips. This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 U.S.- or U.S.-allied-designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.

Metaculus

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips? The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies. If a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/). This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) has more than 50% of its training compute provided by AI chips that were both designed and fabricated by Chinese firms. If there is no frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there is at least one frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, but none of these models have more than 50% of their training compute provided by chips designed and fabricated by Chinese firms, then the question resolves as **No**.

Metaculus

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute? Presently, there is nothing to stop Chinese AI developers from carrying out training runs using US [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), on account of an [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/) loophole: While Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, and the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled. Chinese AI developers have not yet made use of this loophole to carry out a frontier AI model training run. However, as they become increasingly hamstrung by physical export controls, the loophole might present an increasingly attractive path forward. This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) is trained using [cloud compute / infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) provided by a US firm](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20880/us-restricts-chinese-iaas-access-by-2025/). If there is no frontier Chinese AI model before 2025, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there are one or more frontier Chinese AI models before 2025, but none are trained using US IaaS, then this question resolves as **No**. A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there, counts as being part of China. ------ Whether a Chinese firm has developed a “frontier” model is defined as in the “[Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/)” question. In other words, frontier means either i) trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time, or ii) top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) Areno ELO rating. For i, we will use Epoch AI's "[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)" database as the resolution source.

Metaculus

Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? Sam Altman is back as a CEO in Open AI, but there is a new board, investigation and many open questions about his behavior. 1. Washington Post: [OpenAI leaders warned of abusive behavior before Sam Altman's ouster](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/08/open-ai-sam-altman-complaints/) 2. New York Times: [Inside OpenAI's Crisis Over the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/technology/openai-altman-inside-crisis.html) The question resolves Yes if credible sources report Sam Altman has left OpenAI after February 2, 2024 and before Jan 1, 2025.

Metaculus

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? *This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).* On October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The order seeks to [set guardrails](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059) on AI development and includes a number of requirements for monitoring existing uses of AI and addressing risks involved in future AI developments. In particular, the order sets reporting requirements for training large AI models that meet the definition in Section 3(k): >(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by: > >(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons; > >(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or > >(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation. > >Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities. The order requires that any companies developing, training, or planning to train such a model must report their intent to the government and provide information regarding security measures, ownership of model weights, and results of red-teaming tests. Specifically, in Section 4.2(a): > 4.2. Ensuring Safe and Reliable AI. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act, as amended, 50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq., including for the national defense and the protection of critical infrastructure, the Secretary of Commerce shall require: > >(i) Companies developing or demonstrating an intent to develop potential dual-use foundation models to provide the Federal Government, on an ongoing basis, with information, reports, or records regarding the following: > >(A) any ongoing or planned activities related to training, developing, or producing dual-use foundation models, including the physical and cybersecurity protections taken to assure the integrity of that training process against sophisticated threats; > >(B) the ownership and possession of the model weights of any dual-use foundation models, and the physical and cybersecurity measures taken to protect those model weights; and > >(C) the results of any developed dual-use foundation model's performance in relevant AI red-team testing based on guidance developed by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, and a description of any associated measures the company has taken to meet safety objectives, such as mitigations to improve performance on these red-team tests and strengthen overall model security. Prior to the development of guidance on red-team testing standards by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, this description shall include the results of any red-team testing that the company has conducted relating to lowering the barrier to entry for the development, acquisition, and use of biological weapons by non-state actors; the discovery of software vulnerabilities and development of associated exploits; the use of software or tools to influence real or virtual events; the possibility for self-replication or propagation; and associated measures to meet safety objectives; and > >(ii) Companies, individuals, or other organizations or entities that acquire, develop, or possess a potential large-scale computing cluster to report any such acquisition, development, or possession, including the existence and location of these clusters and the amount of total computing power available in each cluster. Section 4.2(b) also sets forth a compute threshold for which the reporting in 4.2(a) is required: >(b) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Energy, and the Director of National Intelligence, shall define, and thereafter update as needed on a regular basis, the set of technical conditions for models and computing clusters that would be subject to the reporting requirements of subsection 4.2(a) of this section. Until such technical conditions are defined, the Secretary shall require compliance with these reporting requirements for: > >(i) any model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations, or using primarily biological sequence data and using a quantity of computing power greater than 1023 integer or floating-point operations; and > >(ii) any computing cluster that has a set of machines physically co-located in a single datacenter, transitively connected by data center networking of over 100 Gbit/s, and having a theoretical maximum computing capacity of 1020 integer or floating-point operations per second for training AI. While campaigning on December 2, 2023, Donald Trump [reportedly said](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-vows-cancel-biden-executive-order): >When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one. This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected president in 2024 **and**, on December 31, 2025, regulation is in place in the United States that satisfies the following: * All companies developing, training, or planning to train a dual-use foundation model with more than \(10^{26}\) integer or floating-point operations must provide the US federal government with all of the following information: * Notification of activities and plans related to dual-use foundation models, including security protections taken to safeguard the training process against threats. * Information on the ownership of model weights and security protections taken to protect model weights. * For developed models, the results of red-teaming activities.

Metaculus

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict. In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East. Through the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine's coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the "*center of gravity of the enemy*" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. In November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148), [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259), [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947). On the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) "*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time. There is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination. The Ukrainian offensive [began in June 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/), but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are [significant doubts about its chances](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) [of](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-ukraine-war-strategy.html) [success](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/07/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-drones-stalemate/). Even so, [Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-imminent-f-16s-arrival-only-part-of-broader-defense-talks-mod-reveals/ar-AA1ldR3c), and [Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-counteroffensive-results-ap-interview/), [despite](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302) political difficulties for providing military aid. This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025, 00:00 [EET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_European_Time). For the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice

Metaculus

Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? Rep. Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to resign from the house before the end of 2023 (and before the end of his term). Subsequently, the Governor of California is mandated by CA state law to schedule a special election to replace McCarthy. [More information about the process can be found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_California%27s_20th_congressional_district_special_election). The election is will likely happen in April or May 2024. This question will resolve **Yes** if a Republican wins the first special election for California's 20th congressional district held in 2024, as verified by the [California Secretary of State](https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/). If no special election is held for CA-20 in 2024, the question is annulled.

Metaculus

Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027? [Berkshire Hathaway](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com), led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under Buffett's long tenure around the time he started. Buffett maintains that [dividends would only be considered if Berkshire runs out of investment ideas](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/why-doesnt-berkshire-hathaway-pay-dividend.asp) or can't repurchase shares at favorable prices. As the company grows, finding high-return investments becomes challenging. With Buffett now 93 and Berkshire's massive size, speculation arises about a potential dividend, which would mark a significant shift in investing philosophy and could impact global investor sentiments. This question resolves **Yes** if Berkshire Hathaway Inc. officially announces the payment of a dividend at any point before January 1, 2027. The source of resolution will be an official statement by Berkshire Hathaway or a reputable financial news source citing such an official statement. In the event that Berkshire Hathaway is confirmed to have paid a dividend prior to the end of 2026, the question immediately resolves **Yes.**

Metaculus

Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030? According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/): > The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas. > A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation. The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, credible sources report that sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been (re)imposed by the United States. Any imposition or reimposition of sanctions that were not in effect on December 15, 2023, will be sufficient for resolution. This includes a reversal of the Biden-administration's sanction relief.

Metaculus

Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament? A target set out in the 2019 Conservative manifesto for 300,000 homes a year by the mid-2020s was scrapped by Rishi Sunak last year and to date has not been replaced.  Speaking to BBC One's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg at the start of Labour's annual conference in Liverpool, Starmer said his party would set a target of 1.5m new homes over five years Since 2017, on average, approximately 170k "dwellings" per year have been completed in England and Wales. This resolves to "Yes" if, during the [59th UK Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliaments_of_the_United_Kingdom), an average of more than 200k dwellings are completed in England and Wales, per year, according to the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted).

Metaculus

Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? The UK's Conservative Party [won control of Parliament in 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) under David Cameron. Since then, the Conservatives have maintained control of Parliament. One of the key issues over the last decade was Britain's relationship with the European Union and its policies on immigration, with Conservatives ultimately paving the way for Brexit, while the Labour Party and other left-wing groups favored remaining. Conservative leadership has been divided in recent years. In spite of this apparent weakness, Labour has also lacked a key leader, and the rise of the Scottish National Party, which shares appeal with Labour (their founder was Scottish), has led to a loss of most seats from Labour to the SNP. Some Scottish constituencies have experienced vote-splitting between Labour and the SNP, allowing Conservatives to gain seats there. Currently, British law requires that the next general election be held [no later than January 28, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election). This question resolves as "Yes" if the BBC reports that the Labour Party has won a majority of seats in the House of Commons after the next UK general election that takes place after December 13, 2023. Otherwise, the question resolves as "No." For the purpose of this question all MPs of the Labour and Co-operative Party are considered Labour MPs.

Metaculus

Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy. This question will resolve as **Yes** if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.

Metaculus

Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month. Below is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.** <iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe> This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November, 2024 is greater than 4.0%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).

Metaculus

If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court issued a ruling [barring Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot in 2024](https://www.sos.state.co.us/). In a [4-3 decision](https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/02nd_Judicial_District/Denver_District_Court/11_17_2023%20Final%20Order.pdf), "“a majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment." > “We do not reach these conclusions lightly,” [the Colorado majority opinion reads](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/colorado-disqualify-donald-trump-00132578). “We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.” Trump vowed to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. The question resolves **Yes** if: 1. Donald Trump is the [Republican Nominee for President of the United States in 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/) 2. Donald Trump's name appears as the Republican candidate on the general election ballot used by voters in the the state of Colorado on Election Day, according to the [Colorado Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.co.us/)

Metaculus

Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032? Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition. Potential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment. While progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032. References: - Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/) - Medscape: [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713) - UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/) - Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes) - The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/) - Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do) - ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262) - ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248) This question resolves as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2032, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a treatment that meets the following definition of a cure for Type 1 diabetes: A cure reverses type 1 diabetes by restoring natural insulin production and normalizing blood glucose levels long-term without further insulin administration in the majority of cases. Specifically, the treatment must demonstrate sustained insulin independence and normoglycemia for at least 1 year in 60% or more of clinical trial participants. Treatments that just help manage the disease's symptoms, require continuing insulin therapy, or require immunosuppressants would not qualify as a cure. If no such FDA-approved curative treatment exists before January 1, 2032, the question resolves as "No". In case of ambiguity, the determination of whether an approved treatment meets the criteria for a cure will be made by referencing the published clinical trial results, product labeling, and other documentation from the treatment's manufacturer and the FDA approval documents.

Metaculus

Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? The [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm). If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Below is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.** <iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1d3Hg&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe> This question will resolve as **Yes** if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first [published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).

Metaculus

Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI's Superalignment team at the end of 2024? OpenAI established the [Superalignment team](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) to focus on developing ways to steer, regulate, and govern superintelligent AI systems. Ilya Sutskever, a co-founder and chief scientist at OpenAI, leads this team alongside Jan Leike. The Superalignment team, formed in mid-2023, is a strategic response to the rapid advancements in AI. OpenAI, recently faced a significant leadership shakeup. Sutskever, serving as the chief scientist and a board member, played a pivotal role in the temporary ousting of CEO Sam Altman. This event raised questions about Sutskever's future role at the company. Although he was instrumental in forming the superalignment team and his contributions remain significant, his current status within OpenAI has been somewhat ambiguous following these events. [Source 1](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/14/1085344/openai-super-alignment-rogue-agi-gpt-4), [Source 2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ilya-sutskever-man-center-openai-211351628.html). [Reports indicate that Sutskever has been less visible within OpenAI.](https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/ilya-sutskevers-team-at-openai-built-tools-to-control-a-superhuman-ai/)​. There have been speculations about him potentially leaving the organization, especially considering the recent leadership turmoil and his hiring of a lawyer. However, his exact status and future role at OpenAI remain unconfirmed as of now​. This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025. The resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities. Leadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. It is sufficient for OpenAI to define Sutskever's role explicitly as "leading," but it is not necessary.

Metaculus

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"? [Oumuamua is a first ever confirmed "interstellar object" to enter Solar system](https://www.ted.com/talks/karen_j_meech_the_story_of_oumuamua_the_first_visitor_from_another_star_system?language=en). It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named "Oumuamua" which stands for "advance scout" in Hawaiian. However, the brightness of Oumuamua faded so quickly, that it became apparent that it moves really fast (26 km/s) and thus will relatively soon [leave the solar system never to return](https://medium.com/@astrowright/oumuamua-natural-or-artificial-f744b70f40d5). [Andrew Cote](https://twitter.com/Andercot) and [Tony Dunn](https://twitter.com/tony873004) have come up with a Project Lyra - [exploring the possibility](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) of meeting this strange visitor from space. The idea is to chase Oumuamua using [a couple of hardcore gravity assists](https://twitter.com/tony873004/status/1732961608606056718), first sending a spacecraft to Jupiter, causing it to drop to the Sun for an Oberth maneuver. The question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2030, any national space agency (such as NASA) or private space company (such as Space X) announces plans to launch a spacecraft with the goal to reach Oumuamua before it leaves the solar system. The precise execution of this mission can be different from that proposed by [Project Lyra](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email), just the objective should be the same - meeting Ouma. The mission itself can be scheduled for later, the question resolves if there is an official announcement or any type of public statement.

Metaculus

Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the [highest valuation](https://coinmarketcap.com/), increased over 50% from mid-October 2023 until late December of 2023. While Bitcoin is still short of its November 2021 high of over $64,000, the recent rally has renewed interest in cryptocurrency and left [some analysts](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/24/a-wall-street-giant-has-declared-crypto-winter-over-as-bitcoin-smashes-30000-and-the-price-of-ethereum-and-xrp-suddenly-soar/?sh=3a357ea2917f) wondering if the "crypto winter" is over. For [reference](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/guides/bitcoin-price-history), from the start of 2010 until the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price increased 10 of those years and decreased 3 of those years. This question will resolve **YES** if the last measured price of Bitcoin (in USD) on CoinMarketCap on December 31st, 2024 (UTC) is greater than the earliest measured price of Bitcoin on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) on January 1st, 2024 (UTC). Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.

Metaculus

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. By tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets. Given the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects. Some studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. Importantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563). This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide) before January 1, 2025. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.

Metaculus

In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? As of the end of 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court comprises nine justices with lifetime appointments. The Court's composition includes: 1. Chief Justice John Roberts (appointed 2005) 2. Justice Clarence Thomas (appointed 1991) 3. Justice Samuel Alito (appointed 2006) 4. Justice Sonia Sotomayor (appointed 2009) 5. Justice Elena Kagan (appointed 2010) 6. Justice Neil Gorsuch (appointed 2017) 7. Justice Brett Kavanaugh (appointed 2018) 8. Justice Amy Coney Barrett (appointed 2020) 9. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (appointed 2022) The makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court plays a crucial role in shaping the country's legal landscape and has a significant impact on American society. The lifelong appointments of the justices mean that any changes in the Court's composition, due to retirement, death, or impeachment, can lead to substantial and enduring influences on both legal and societal matters in the United States. The question resolves as **Yes** if any of the nine current justices retires, dies, is impeached, or resigns. Additionally, a change in size of the Supreme Court would also qualify, such as adding or removing members. In situations like a justice announcing retirement but serving beyond 2024, the resolution is based on the status as of December 31, 2024. If the justice is still serving on this date, the question resolves as **No**.

Metaculus

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity. Recent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdom's Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988). This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 23rd, 2023 to December 31, 2024. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2025. The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.

Metaculus

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? *The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)* --- [Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years. [A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. Within Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks. If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as **YES** on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves **NO**.

Metaculus

Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows: >A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is: > > * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected; > * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State's national border; and > * may require immediate international action. The International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC. There [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. The first was swine flu in 2009, and the most recent was Mpox in 2022. This question will resolve as **Yes** if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.

Metaculus

Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? Electric vehicles have seen significant sales growth in recent years, with plug-in vehicles (PEVs) making up less than 3% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2020, a figure that [has grown to above 9%](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates) through November 2023. PEVs consist of both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).

Metaculus

Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/): >Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. > >. . . > >After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q\* (or Q-Star) **and** publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q\*.

Metaculus

Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed "writes computer programs at a competitive level". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce): >AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months. In December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces. >When evaluated on the Codeforces platform – a mainstay of competitive programming – AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average. So far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rémi Leblond. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/) in the highest division.

Metaculus

Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? NASA's [Artemis program](https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/) is a series of missions to explore the moon. The first mission, [Artemis I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_1), was launched on November 16, 2022, and performed an uncrewed flyby of the moon. The second mission, [Artemis II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_2#Mission), is planned to be the first crewed mission to fly by the moon since [humans last left low Earth orbit with the Apollo 17 mission in 1972](https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/why-50-years-since-humans-went-moon). Its launch is [scheduled to be no earlier than November of 2024](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/). <img src="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/artemis-2-map-october-2021.jpeg" alt="Artemis II Mission Plan"> *[Image published by NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-ii-map/)* This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the Artemis II moon mission comes within 20,000 nautical miles of the surface of the moon with a living crew.

Metaculus

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? **Previous Questions on Metaculus** - [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/) - [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/) - [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17742/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023/) --- The city of Bakhmut in Ukraine has been [heavily contested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/20/the-battle-for-ukraine-bakhmut-a-timeline), and [according to PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraine-ends-year-in-disappointing-stalemate-with-russia-and-anxious-about-aid-from-allies) the battle for Bakhmut has been "the longest and bloodiest battle of the war". The [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (ISW) has been tracking the war in Ukraine and charting the control of territory on its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). As of December 21, 2023, the ISW shows central Bakhmut as under "assessed Russian control". This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building — located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 — is under any of the following categories: - Ukrainian Control - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives - Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location The question will resolve as **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories: - Assessed Russian Control - Assessed Russian Advance - Claimed Russian Control - Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare - Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building

Metaculus

Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? The SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. While the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past two decades, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has had more humble returns. For reference, [China's GDP](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product) grew from 1.47 trillion USD in 2002 to 17.96 trillion USD in 2022, while the [SSE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/) went from 1500 at the beginning of 2003 to 3255 at the beginning of 2023. For further reference, [from 2003 until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index), the SSE ended the year up for 11 of those years and down for 9 of those years. This question will resolve **YES** if on December 31st, 2024, the closing price of the SSE Index is higher than the closing price of the SSE Index was on December 29th, 2023. Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**. The closing price will be checked at: <https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/>

Metaculus

Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? Blue Origin's [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) launch vehicle consists of two stages and is planned to be able to [launch 45 metric tons of payload into low Earth orbit](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn). The first launch is [currently planned](https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/) to carry a NASA [smallsat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_satellite) in August of 2024. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the New Glenn launch vehicle reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers intact.

Metaculus

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/). This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of China or Taiwan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.

Metaculus

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border. Tensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of India and Pakistan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.

Metaculus

Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055? The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the "Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the "Fort Wayne Pistons" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the "Pistons" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry. [There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not. This question positively resolves if the Detroit Pistons change their team nickname, non-trivially and as reported by official team news reports, before January 1st, 2055. If the Detroit Pistons move their team to another city, the question remains unresolved so long as the team nickname remains the Pistons.

Metaculus