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North West drops album this year? If North West releases an album on Spotify before Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Spotify. | 0.47 | Kalshi |
New Avengers movie delayed? If the Avengers movie has been delayed or had its release date removed, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Disney, Variety. | 0.66 | Kalshi |
House of the Dragon: Season 2 Rotten Tomatoes score? If House of the Dragon: Season 2 has a Tomatometer score of above 90 on Jun 17, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.5 | Kalshi |
How high will Ethereum get this year? If the price of Ethereum is Above 4999.99 by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from CF Benchmarks. | 0.55 | Kalshi |
Apple reveals portless iPhone before 2026? If Apple has announced a portless phone before 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Apple. | 0.3 | Kalshi |
Reputation (Taylor's Version) announced this year? If a new original Taylor Swift album has been announced before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Taylor Swift. | 0.72 | Kalshi |
New GME CEO this year? If Ryan Cohen is no longer CEO of Gamestop by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Gamestop. | 0.29 | Kalshi |
Recession this year? If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2023 or 2024, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. | 0.08 | Kalshi |
Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) announced this year? If a new original Taylor Swift album has been announced before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Taylor Swift. | 0.25 | Kalshi |
Is this year the hottest year ever? If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2024 reported by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the higher of 1.02 degrees Celsius or the initial 2023 value, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. | 0.48 | Kalshi |
ASAP Rocky has a #1 album this year? If ASAP Rocky has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Billboard. | 0.41 | Kalshi |
Elon Musk wins OpenAI lawsuit? If Elon Musk wins any of his requested judgments from OpenAI in Superior Court of California for the County of San Francisco by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from PACER. | 0.2 | Kalshi |
Housing price increase in the US this year? If Zillow reports the price of single-family homes rises more than 4% in December 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Zillow. | 0.34 | Kalshi |
Kanye releases new album on Spotify before May 5th? If Kanye has released a new album on Spotify before May 5, 2024, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Spotify. | 0.11 | Kalshi |
Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan this year? If Jamie Dimon is no longer CEO of JPMorgan Chase by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from JPMorgan Chase, Bloomberg. | 0.07 | Kalshi |
New cancer drug progresses through FDA phases this year? If AOH1996 has passed Phase I and a Phase II clinical trial has been announced for AOH1996 before 2025 (even if the trial has not started by that year), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Clinicaltrials.gov. | 0.62 | Kalshi |
Courts consider Apple a monopoly? If District Court for the District of New Jersey finds Apple responsible for any of the anti-trust claims made by the Department of Justice, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from PACER. | 0.62 | Kalshi |
OpenAI's for-profit arm ends this year? If OpenAI has ended its for-profit division by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI. | 0.1 | Kalshi |
SCOTUS deems repatriation tax unconstitutional? If the Supreme Court rules the mandatory repatriation tax unconstitutional, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Supreme Court. | 0.17 | Kalshi |
SCOTUS weakens Chevron deference? If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the petitioners in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo et al., then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Supreme Court. | 0.92 | Kalshi |
Apple reveals car this year? If Apple has announced the development of a car before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Apple. | 0.05 | Kalshi |
How high will gas prices in California get this year? If average regular gas prices for US are strictly greater than $5.016 by Dec 31, 2024 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. | 0.07 | Kalshi |
Sora public release before May? If OpenAI has released Sora to the public before May 1, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI. | 0.07 | Kalshi |
The Sympathizer Rotten Tomatoes score? If The Sympathizer has a Tomatometer score of above 90 on Apr 15, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.46 | Kalshi |
AI wins IMO gold medal before 2026? If an AI has won the gold medal at the International Math Olympiad before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMO Grand Challenge Committee, XTX Markets. | 0.31 | Kalshi |
How low will Ethereum fall by year-end? f the price of Ethereum is below 2500 by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. IOutcome verified from CF Benchmarks. | 0.43 | Kalshi |
Arctic sea ice minimum extent next summer? If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2023 and October 01, 2024 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.0 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Snow & Ice Data Center. | 0.57 | Kalshi |
New nuclear reactor in the US approved this year? If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a new combined license authorizing the construction and operations of a new nuclear nuclear power facility before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Nuclear Regulatory Commission. | 0.16 | Kalshi |
EA Sports College Football 25 Metacritic score? If the Metascore for EA Sports College Football 25 is above 74 three days after release, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Metacritic. | 0.46 | Kalshi |
Bob Iger leaves Disney this year? If Bob Iger is no longer CEO of Disney by December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Disney. | 0.04 | Kalshi |
How many companies will go bankrupt this year? If the number of corporate bankruptcies is greater than 642 in December 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Standard & Poor's. | 0.36 | Kalshi |
PS6 announced before 2026? If Sony announces the PS6 by Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Sony. | 0.22 | Kalshi |
New illness in China declared a public health emergency before May? If the WHO declares a Public Health Emergency related to the increase in respiratory illness in northern China identified in mid-October 2023 by Apr 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from WHO. | 0.03 | Kalshi |
Manchin leaves Dem leadership by the election? If the website of Senator Joe Manchin contains a notice by 10:00 AM on November 06, 2024 that Senator Joe Manchin has left or will leave the Senate leadership of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The Office of U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. | 0.08 | Kalshi |
China GDP growth in 2023? If real GDP for China grows more than 3% in 2023, according to the World Bank, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from World Bank. | 0.8 | Kalshi |
Apple reveals foldable iPhone this year? If Apple has announced a foldable phone before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Apple. | 0.03 | Kalshi |
Alien: Romulus Rotten Tomatoes score? If Alien: Romulus has a Tomatometer score of above 65 on Aug 19, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.56 | Kalshi |
GTA 6 release date? If GTA 6 has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Jun 30, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rockstar Games. | 0.28 | Kalshi |
Mortgage defaults in Q1 2024? If the delinquency rates for household real estate loans in quarter 1 2024 is greater than 1.69% , then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.47 | Kalshi |
Meta daily active users in Q1 2024? If Meta has more than 3.25 billion daily active people, on average, for the last month in 2024 Q1, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Meta. | 0.45 | Kalshi |
COVID new variant of concern reported this year? If the CDC has identified a new variant of concern between Issuance and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. | 0.1 | Kalshi |
Courts consider Amazon a monopoly? If U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington rules that Amazon has illegally maintained a monopoly, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from PACER. | 0.59 | Kalshi |
How low will gas prices in the US get this year? If average regular gas prices for US are strictly lower than $2.25 by Dec 31, 2024 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. | 0.12 | Kalshi |
Winds of Winter release date announced this year? If George R.R. Martin has announced a release date for The Winds of Winter before Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from George R.R. Martin. | 0.21 | Kalshi |
Room-temp superconductor validated this year? If an eligible peer-reviewed journal publishes research that reports that a material is room-temperature superconductive (it has a critical temperature greater than room temperature, exhibits 10^-10 ohm-cm electrical resistivity or less, and exhibits the Meissner effect), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Condensed Matter Physics research. | 0.07 | Kalshi |
Starship manned mission to Mars launched before 2030? If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from SpaceX. | 0.16 | Kalshi |
Kristie Canegallo confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security before election day? If Kristie Canegallo is confirmed to be Secretary of Homeland Security between Issuance and November 05, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.06 | Kalshi |
New Rihanna album this year? If Rihanna releases a new album before Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Spotify. | 0.23 | Kalshi |
SCOTUS prohibits Texas social media regulations? If the Supreme Court rules that Texas House Bill 20 violates the First Amendment, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Supreme Court. | 0.76 | Kalshi |
New Microsoft CEO before 2026? If Sam Altman is announced as the next permanent CEO of Microsoft by Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Microsoft. | 0.04 | Kalshi |
How high will the inflation level get this year? If year-over-year CPI inflation is above 5.99% in any month in 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 0.13 | Kalshi |
Courts consider Google a monopoly? If District Court for the District of Columbia rules that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from PACER. | 0.59 | Kalshi |
Mayorkas out before election day? If Alejandro Mayorkas is no longer Secretary of Homeland Security before election day, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.13 | Kalshi |
New Boeing CEO this year? If Dave Calhoun is no longer CEO of Boeing by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Boeing, Bloomberg. | 0.7 | Kalshi |
How high will gas prices in Texas get this year? If average regular gas prices for TX are strictly greater than $4.69 by Dec 31, 2024 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. | 0.03 | Kalshi |
Another tsunami this year? If a tsunami of at least 1m high maximum waves occurs by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NCEI. | 0.88 | Kalshi |
Beyonce's album hits #1 this year? If Beyonce has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Billboard. | 0.97 | Kalshi |
Next Secretary of the Treasury confirmed this year? If Lael Brainard is confirmed to be Secretary between Issuance and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.06 | Kalshi |
Section 230 weakened this year? If Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 is weakened or eliminated by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.19 | Kalshi |
New Supreme Court justice confirmed this year? If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress. | 0.12 | Kalshi |
Kinds of Kindness Rotten Tomatoes score? If Kinds of Kindness has a Tomatometer score of above 90 on Sep 9, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Rotten Tomatoes. | 0.793 | Kalshi |
How high will natural gas get this year? If the spot price of Henry Hub natural gas hits above $4 per million BTU on any day between January 23, 2024 and December 30, 2024 as reported by the EIA, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Energy Information Administration. | 0.36 | Kalshi |
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl Metacritic score? If the Metascore for S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl is above 85 three days after release, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Metacritic. | 0.44 | Kalshi |
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2 Metacritic score? If the Metascore for Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2 is above 85 three days after release, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Metacritic. | 0.38 | Kalshi |
Maersk resumes shipping in the Red Sea before July? If Maersk resumes shipping in the Red Sea by Jun 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Maersk. | 0.27 | Kalshi |
Sundar Pichai leaves Google this year? If Sundar Pichai is no longer CEO of Google by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg, Google. | 0.11 | Kalshi |
How low will the Fed rate get this year? If the upper bound of the target rate range is below 5.00 in 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.41 | Kalshi |
Fed creates new emergency lending program this year? If the Federal Reserve creates a new emergency lending program or facility by 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.13 | Kalshi |
Filibuster weakened before 2026? If the U.S. Senate lowers the threshold for the filibuster by December 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate, Library of Congress. | 0.21 | Kalshi |
Nelson Peltz joins Disney's board this year? If Nelson Peltz is announced to be joining Disney's Board of Directors by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Disney, Bloomberg. | 0.07 | Kalshi |
Credit card defaults up in Q1 2024? If the delinquency rates for credit cards in quarter 1 2024 is greater than 3.10% , then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve. | 0.84 | Kalshi |
SCOTUS considers CFPB unconstitutional? If the Supreme Court finds that the CFPB funding structure is unconstitutional, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Supreme Court. | 0.56 | Kalshi |
General strike in Argentina this year? If the Argentine General Confederation of Labour has called for and started a general strike by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from General Confederation of Labour (Argentina). | 0.82 | Kalshi |
Argentina inflation this month? If inflation in Argentina is above 300 in Apr 2024 , then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OECD. | 0.5 | Kalshi |
AI passes Turing test before 2030? If Kurzweil has won his bet that AI will pass the Turing Test by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Long Bets Foundation. | 0.64 | Kalshi |
How low will gas prices in Texas get this year? If average regular gas prices for TX are strictly lower than $2 by Dec 31, 2024 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. | 0.18 | Kalshi |
Gas prices up in the US this month? If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.69 on Apr 30, 2024 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. | 0.02 | Kalshi |
Biden 538 approval rating at the end of the year? If President Biden's approval rating according to FiveThirtyEight is above 39.9% on December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FiveThirtyEight. | 0.48 | Kalshi |
Will a sequel to Kingdom Come: Deliverance be announced in 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be another shooting in Auckland central before 2024 | 0.34 | Manifold |
In 2030, will people assume you mean CR7 if you say "Ronaldo"? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Aella release a AI girlfriend in collaboration with @realGeorgeHotz by 2026 | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will US military aid to Ukraine decrease by more than 10% in 2024 compared to 2023? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will at least 1% of people openly be in relationships that are "as important as family" with LLMs by 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a LLM with less than 7B parameters out perform Llama-2-70b-hf according the the HF leaderboard by 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Narendra Modi come back as Prime Minister in the Indian elections in 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Global human population goes negative according to the UN before 2040 | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the scientific definition of "superconductor" change by 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will humans stop procreating naturally and artificial wombs become the norm of reproduction by 2044? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will artificial wombs become widespread by 2040? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the average estimation of carbon offsets from U.S. forests fall below 10% of emissions by 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will David Clarke seek the Republican nomination for Wisconsin’s senate seat in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Au-doped lead-apatite be proven to be superconductive at room temperature by 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Kari Lake seek the Republican nomination for Arizona’s Senate seat in 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 US presidential election die during their term | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Ag-doped lead-oxide be proven to be superconductive at room temperature by 2027? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be a >7 team tournament between MLS and Serie A or MLS and Bundesliga by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the aetiology of autism be determined by the end of 2026? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Widespread use of disposable co2 scrubbing materials in power plants by 2050? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |