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{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Attribution Modeling Increases Efficiency of Bidding in Display Advertising\n",
"Eustache Diemert*, Julien Meynet* (Criteo Research), Damien Lefortier (Facebook), Pierre Galland (Criteo)\n",
"*authors contributed equally.\n",
"\n",
"This work was published in:\n",
"[2017 AdKDD & TargetAd Workshop, in conjunction with\n",
"The 23rd ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2017)](https://adkdd17.wixsite.com/adkddtargetad2017)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
" * This code includes all needed material to reproduce results reported in the paper. This dataset can also be used for further research like: testing alternative attribution models, offline metrics, etc..\n",
" * For details about the content of the Dataset, refer to the README file"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Preprocessing"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%pylab inline\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"plt.style.use('ggplot')\n",
"from scipy.optimize import minimize"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"DATA_FILE='criteo_attribution_dataset.tsv.gz'\n",
"df = pd.read_csv(DATA_FILE, sep='\\t', compression='gzip')"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"df['day'] = np.floor(df.timestamp / 86400.).astype(int)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"df.day.hist(bins=len(df.day.unique()))"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"df['gap_click_sale'] = -1\n",
"df.loc[df.conversion == 1, 'gap_click_sale'] = df.conversion_timestamp - df.timestamp"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"FEATURES = ['campaign', 'cat1', 'cat2', 'cat3', 'cat4', 'cat5', 'cat6', \n",
" 'cat7', 'cat8']\n",
"INFOS = ['cost', 'cpo', 'time_since_last_click']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Labels"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"df['last_click'] = df.attribution * (df.click_pos == df.click_nb - 1).astype(int)\n",
"df['first_click'] = df.attribution * (df.click_pos == 0).astype(int)\n",
"df['all_clicks'] = df.attribution\n",
"df['uniform'] = df.attribution / (df.click_nb).astype(float)\n",
"INFOS += ['last_click', 'first_click', 'all_clicks', 'uniform']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Learning / Validation"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression\n",
"from sklearn.feature_extraction import FeatureHasher\n",
"from sklearn.metrics import log_loss"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def bootstrap(data, num_samples, statistic, alpha):\n",
" \"\"\"Returns bootstrap estimate of 100.0*(1-alpha) CI for statistic.\"\"\"\n",
" n = len(data)\n",
" data = np.array(data)\n",
" stats = []\n",
" for _ in range(num_samples):\n",
" idx = np.random.randint(0, n, n)\n",
" samples = data[idx]\n",
" stats += [statistic(samples)]\n",
" stats = np.array(sorted(stats))\n",
" return (stats[int((alpha/2.0)*num_samples)],\n",
" stats[int((1-alpha/2.0)*num_samples)])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Attribution model\n",
"Learns exponential decay lambda parameter"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def attr_nllh(l,x,y):\n",
" loss = 0.0\n",
" lamb = l[0]\n",
" n = x.shape[0]\n",
" for i in range(n):\n",
" if y[i] == 1:\n",
" loss += lamb*x[i]\n",
" else:\n",
" loss -= np.log(1 - np.exp(-lamb*x[i])) \n",
" return loss/float(n)\n",
"\n",
"def attr_nllh_grad(l,x,y):\n",
" grad = 0.0\n",
" lamb = l[0]\n",
" n = x.shape[0]\n",
" for i in range(n):\n",
" grad += x[i]*y[i] / (1 - np.exp(-lamb*x[i]))\n",
" return np.array([grad/float(n)])\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"def optimize_lambda(tts, attrib):\n",
" return minimize(attr_nllh, 1e-3, method='L-BFGS-B', jac=attr_nllh_grad, \n",
" options={'disp': True, 'maxiter': 20 }, bounds=((1e-15, 1e-4),), \n",
" args=(tts,attrib)).x[0]\n",
"\n",
"def learn_attribution_model(df_view, test_day, learning_duration, \n",
" verbose=False, ci=False, rescale=1., \n",
" optimizer=optimize_lambda):\n",
" df_train = df_view[(df_view.day >= test_day - learning_duration) & (df_view.day < test_day)]\n",
" df_conv = df_train[df_train.click_pos == df_train.click_nb - 1]\n",
" x = df_conv.gap_click_sale.values\n",
" y = df_conv.attribution.values \n",
" \n",
" avg_tts = x.mean()\n",
" tts_ci = bootstrap(x, 100, np.mean, .05)\n",
" tts_ci = tts_ci[1] - tts_ci[0]\n",
"\n",
" lamb = optimize_lambda(x, y)\n",
" \n",
" lambs = []\n",
" n_bootstraps = 30\n",
" alpha=.05\n",
" if ci:\n",
" for _ in range(n_bootstraps):\n",
" idx = np.random.randint(0, x.shape[0], x.shape)\n",
" xx = x[idx]\n",
" yy = y[idx]\n",
" lambs += [optimize_lambda(xx, yy)]\n",
"\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print('\\t\\t-avg_tts', avg_tts, '+/-', tts_ci, \n",
" ' = ', avg_tts / 3600., 'hours = ', avg_tts / 86400., 'days')\n",
" if ci:\n",
" print('\\t\\t-lambda', lamb, '+/-', (lambs[int((1-alpha/2.)*n_bootstraps)] - lambs[int((alpha/2.)*n_bootstraps)]))\n",
" else:\n",
" print('\\t\\t-lambda', lamb)\n",
" \n",
" return avg_tts, lamb"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"global_avg_tts, global_lamb = learn_attribution_model(df, 21, 20)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Compute AA attributions on full dataset\n",
"As explained in the paper, the exponential decay parameter is satble throughout the days. For reducing computation complexity we compute the exponential-based attributions on the full dataset."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def compute_aa_attributions(test_info, normalize=True):\n",
" test_info['idx'] = test_info.index\n",
" converted = test_info[test_info.all_clicks==1]\n",
" # to propoerly compute normalized attribution factors, we have to reconstruct the timelines for each conversion\n",
" conversion_ids = converted['conversion_id'].unique()\n",
" # now reconstruct timeline and apply attribution\n",
" by_conversion = converted[['conversion_id', 'timestamp', 'idx', 'bf_pred', 'time_since_last_click', 'last_click']].groupby('conversion_id')\n",
" new_clicks_data = []\n",
" \n",
" s_attr = []\n",
" s_attr_lc = []\n",
" # for each conversion compute attribution for each click\n",
" for conv, evts in by_conversion:\n",
" sorted_clicks = sorted(evts.values.tolist(), key=lambda x: x[1])\n",
" bf_pred = [_[3] for _ in sorted_clicks]\n",
" sum_bf = np.sum(bf_pred)\n",
" sum_lc = np.sum([_[5] for _ in sorted_clicks])\n",
" sum_attr = 0.0\n",
" for pos, (_, _, idx_, bf_, tslc_, lc_) in enumerate(sorted_clicks):\n",
" aa_attr = bf_pred[pos]\n",
" if normalize:\n",
" if sum_bf>0.0:\n",
" aa_attr/=sum_bf\n",
" else:\n",
" aa_attr = 0.0\n",
" sum_attr += aa_attr\n",
" new_clicks_data.append((idx_, aa_attr))\n",
" s_attr.append(sum_attr)\n",
" s_attr_lc.append(sum_lc)\n",
" \n",
" # now for each click, apply attribution from computed data\n",
" new_clicks_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=['click_idx', 'aa_attribution'])\n",
" cidx, attr = zip(*new_clicks_data)\n",
" new_clicks_df['click_idx'] = cidx\n",
" new_clicks_df['aa_attribution'] = attr\n",
" new_clicks_df = new_clicks_df.set_index('click_idx')\n",
" joined = test_info.join(new_clicks_df)\n",
" joined['aa_attribution'] = joined['aa_attribution'].fillna(value = 0.0)\n",
" return joined['aa_attribution']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#learn global attribution model\n",
"avg_tts, lamb = learn_attribution_model(df, 21, 20)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# compute the bid factor from aa attribution for each display\n",
"gap_test = df.time_since_last_click.values\n",
"previous_tslc_mask = (df.time_since_last_click >=0).astype(float)\n",
"attr_pred = np.exp(-lamb*gap_test)\n",
"attr_pred *= previous_tslc_mask\n",
"bf_pred = 1 - attr_pred\n",
"df['bf_pred'] = bf_pred\n",
"df['AA_normed'] = compute_aa_attributions(df, normalize=True)\n",
"df['AA_not_normed'] = compute_aa_attributions(df, normalize=False)\n",
"INFOS += ['bf_pred', 'AA_normed', 'AA_not_normed']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Validation Code\n",
"Utility methods for performing validation (test on 1 day, learn on previous x days and slide)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def get_train_test_slice(df_view, test_day, learning_duration, label, features=None, \n",
" hash_space=2**24, nrows=None, infos=None):\n",
" df_test = df_view[df_view.day == test_day]\n",
" if nrows is not None:\n",
" df_test = df_test[:nrows]\n",
" if features is None:\n",
" features = FEATURES\n",
" if infos is None:\n",
" infos = INFOS\n",
" df_train = df_view[(df_view.day >= test_day - learning_duration) & (df_view.day < test_day)]\n",
" if nrows is not None:\n",
" df_train = df_train[:nrows]\n",
" \n",
" X_train = df_train[features]\n",
" X_test = df_test[features]\n",
" \n",
" hasher = FeatureHasher(n_features=hash_space, non_negative=1)\n",
" \n",
" def to_dict_values(df_view):\n",
" return [dict([(_[0]+str(_[1]),1) for _ in zip(features,l)]) for l in df_view.values]\n",
" \n",
" X_train_h = hasher.fit_transform(to_dict_values(X_train))\n",
" X_test_h = hasher.transform(to_dict_values(X_test))\n",
" y_train = df_train[label]\n",
" y_test = df_test[label]\n",
" return (X_train_h, y_train), (X_test_h, y_test), df_test[infos], df_train.last_click.mean()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"source": [
"### Compute Utilities"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from scipy.special import gammainc\n",
"def empirical_utility(a, v, c, p):\n",
" won = np.array(p*v > c, dtype=np.int)\n",
" return (a*v)*won, -c*won\n",
"\n",
"def expected_utility(a, v, c, p, beta=1000):\n",
" return a*v*gammainc(beta*c+1, beta*p*v) - ((beta*c+1)/beta)*gammainc(beta*c+2, beta*p*v)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def evaluate_utility(y_pred, utilities, betas, test_info):\n",
" partial_score = dict()\n",
" for utility in utilities:\n",
" attribution = test_info[utility]\n",
" for beta in betas:\n",
" if np.isinf(beta):\n",
" est_utility = empirical_utility(attribution, test_info.cpo, test_info.cost, y_pred)\n",
" else:\n",
" est_utility = expected_utility(attribution, test_info.cpo, test_info.cost, y_pred, beta=beta)\n",
" beta_str = str(beta) if not np.isinf(beta) else 'inf'\n",
" partial_score['utility-'+utility+'-beta'+beta_str] = est_utility\n",
" return partial_score"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def get_naive_baseline(y_train, X_test):\n",
" return np.mean(y_train)*np.ones(X_test.shape[0])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def evaluate_day_for_bidder(df_view, test_day, learning_duration, bidder, utilities, betas,\n",
" hash_space=None, features=None, clf=None, AA_bidder_label=None, recalibrate=True):\n",
" score = dict()\n",
" bid_profile = dict()\n",
" label = bidder\n",
" if bidder == 'AA':\n",
" label = AA_bidder_label\n",
" # get data slice\n",
" (X_train, y_train), (X_test, y_test), test_info, y_train_lc_mean = get_train_test_slice(df_view,\n",
" test_day,\n",
" learning_duration,\n",
" label=label, \n",
" hash_space = hash_space,\n",
" features=features) \n",
" \n",
" # learn the model\n",
" clf.fit(X_train, y_train)\n",
" \n",
" # get test predictions\n",
" y_pred = clf.predict_proba(X_test)[:,1] \n",
" \n",
" # if aa bidder: modulate the bids by bid_factor computed from attribution model\n",
" if bidder == 'AA':\n",
" y_pred *= test_info['bf_pred']\n",
" \n",
" # compute the loss\n",
" loss = log_loss(y_test, y_pred, normalize=0)\n",
" \n",
" # loss of baseline model\n",
" baseline_loss = log_loss(y_test, get_naive_baseline(y_train, X_test), normalize=0)\n",
" score['nllh'] = loss\n",
" score['nllh_naive'] = baseline_loss\n",
" \n",
" # do we recalibrate output? (i.e recalibrate mean prediction). This is usually done by a control system.\n",
" if recalibrate:\n",
" y_pred *= (y_train_lc_mean / y_pred.mean())\n",
" \n",
" #how many displays are won?\n",
" won = (y_pred*test_info.cpo > test_info.cost).astype(int)\n",
" score['won'] = np.sum(won)\n",
" score['n_auctions'] = y_pred.shape[0]\n",
" \n",
" # compute the scores on this slice\n",
" score.update(evaluate_utility(y_pred, utilities, betas, test_info))\n",
" \n",
" #store bid profiles\n",
" bid_profile['time_since_last_click'] = test_info.time_since_last_click\n",
" bid_profile['bid'] = y_pred\n",
" \n",
" return score, bid_profile"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"#### Simple utility functions to manipulate scores"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def merge_utility_score(score):\n",
" updates = dict()\n",
" for k,v in score.items():\n",
" if not 'utility' in k:\n",
" continue\n",
" if 'inf' in k:\n",
" revenue, cost = v\n",
" updates[k] = np.sum(cost) + np.sum(revenue)\n",
" updates[k+'~revenue'] = np.sum(revenue)\n",
" updates[k+'~cost'] = np.sum(cost)\n",
" v = revenue + cost\n",
" else:\n",
" updates[k] = np.sum(v)\n",
" bounds = bootstrap(v, 100, np.sum, .05)\n",
" delta = (bounds[1]-bounds[0])/2.\n",
" updates[k+'-delta'] = delta\n",
" score.update(updates)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def update_score(partial_score, score):\n",
" for k, v in partial_score.items():\n",
" if 'utility' in k:\n",
" if 'inf' in k:\n",
" revenue, cost = v\n",
" print('\\t\\t', k, np.sum(cost)+np.sum(revenue))\n",
" current_revenue, current_cost = score.get(k, (np.array([]),np.array([])))\n",
" score[k] = (\n",
" np.append(current_revenue, revenue),\n",
" np.append(current_cost, cost)\n",
" )\n",
" else:\n",
" print('\\t\\t', k, np.sum(v))\n",
" score[k] = np.append(score.get(k, np.array([])), v)\n",
" else:\n",
" print('\\t\\t', k, v)\n",
" score[k] = score.get(k, 0) + v"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"source": [
"### Evaluate several bidders on several utility metric variants"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from datetime import datetime, timedelta\n",
"def evaluate_slices(df_view,\n",
" bidders=['last_click', 'first_click', 'AA'],\n",
" utilities=['last_click','first_click', 'AA_normed', 'AA_not_normed'],\n",
" betas=[np.inf, 10, 1000],\n",
" test_days=[22],\n",
" learning_duration=21,\n",
" hash_space=2**24,\n",
" features=None,\n",
" AA_bidder_label='all_clicks',\n",
" clf = LogisticRegression(solver='lbfgs', n_jobs=4),\n",
" recalibrate = True):\n",
" bid_profiles = []\n",
" scores = []\n",
" for bidder in bidders:\n",
" print ('*'*80)\n",
" print(\"EVALUATING BIDDER:\", bidder)\n",
" score = dict()\n",
" bid_profile = dict()\n",
" for test_day in test_days:\n",
" start = datetime.now()\n",
" print('\\t- day:', test_day)\n",
" partial_score, partial_bid_profile = evaluate_day_for_bidder(\n",
" df_view, test_day, learning_duration, bidder, \n",
" utilities, betas,\n",
" hash_space=hash_space, features=features, clf=clf, \n",
" AA_bidder_label=AA_bidder_label, recalibrate=recalibrate\n",
" )\n",
" update_score(partial_score, score)\n",
" for k, v in partial_bid_profile.items():\n",
" bid_profile[k] = np.append(bid_profile.get(k, np.array([])), v)\n",
" print('\\t- took', datetime.now() - start)\n",
" score['bidder'] = bidder\n",
" bid_profile['bidder'] = bidder\n",
" score['nllh_comp_vn'] = (score['nllh_naive'] - score['nllh']) / np.abs(score['nllh_naive'])\n",
" score['win_rate'] = score['won'] / score['n_auctions']\n",
" merge_utility_score(score)\n",
" scores.append(score)\n",
" bid_profiles.append(bid_profile)\n",
" return pd.DataFrame(scores), pd.DataFrame(bid_profiles)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Run & Results"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true,
"scrolled": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#full run\n",
"if False:\n",
" scores, bid_profiles = evaluate_slices(df,\n",
" bidders=['last_click',\n",
" 'first_click',\n",
" 'AA'],\n",
" utilities=['last_click',\n",
" 'first_click',\n",
" 'AA_normed',\n",
" 'AA_not_normed'],\n",
" test_days=range(22,29),\n",
" learning_duration=21,\n",
" hash_space = 2**18,\n",
" AA_bidder_label='all_clicks')"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false,
"scrolled": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#simple debug run\n",
"if True:\n",
" scores, bid_profiles = evaluate_slices(df,\n",
" bidders=['last_click',\n",
" 'AA'],\n",
" utilities=['last_click',\n",
" 'AA_normed'],\n",
" test_days=range(22,23),\n",
" learning_duration=5,\n",
" hash_space = 2**13,\n",
" AA_bidder_label='all_clicks')"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"scores"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": []
}
],
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|