Patent Number: 
Section: claims

1. A contact force evaluation method for evaluating a contact force against a supporting member of a tube bundle positioned in a fluid and supported by the supporting member, the method comprising:a contact force setting step of setting a contact force of the tube bundle;a probability density function calculation step of calculating a probability density function of a reaction force received by the supporting member from the tube bundle in response to a predetermined input, using a vibration analysis model of the tube bundle and the supporting member;a probability calculation step of calculating a probability that a reaction force equal to or higher than theset contact force occurs, based on the calculated probability density function; andan evaluation step of evaluating the set contact force, based on the calculated probability,wherein the tube bundle includes at least one tube array extending in same plane,wherein the supporting member includes at least a pair of anti-vibration members disposed on both sides of the tube array and extending along the plane so that the tube array is interposed therebetween, andwherein evaluation is performed for a contact load force which needs to be applied between the anti-vibration members and the tube array so as to suppress self-excited vibration of the tube bundle, which is supported by friction with the anti-vibration members, in a direction along the plane, against an excitation force of the fluid flowing through the tube bundle. 2. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 1,wherein the probability density function calculation step includes: performing a time history response analysis on the vibration analysis model using the predetermined input to obtain a time history response; calculating an average value and a standard deviation of the reaction force, based on the time history response; and calculating the probability density function as a normal distribution defined by the average value and the standard deviation. 3. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 1,wherein the probability density function is calculated by synthesizing a first probability density function and a second probability density function, the first probability density function corresponding to a first reaction force received by the supporting member in a tangential direction from a contact surface between the supporting member and the tube bundle, the second probability density function corresponding to a second reaction force received by the supporting member in a normal direction from the contact surface. 4. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 1,wherein the evaluation step including: estimating a wear amount which occurs between the tube bundle and the supporting member during a predetermined period, based on the calculated probability; and evaluating theset contact force, based on the estimated wear amount. 5. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 4, further comprising a power calculation step of calculating a power based on a work amount which occurs when a minute displacement is caused between the tube bundle and the supporting member due to the set contact force,wherein the evaluating step includes: estimating a slippage occurrence time caused during the predetermined period, based on the probability; and multiplying the power by the slippage occurrence time to estimate the wear amount. 6. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 4, further comprising an equivalent stiffness calculation step of calculating an equivalent stiffness of the tube bundle,wherein the evaluating step includes; calculating a decrease in the contact force, based on the wear amount and the equivalent stiffness; and evaluating the set contact force, based on whether the calculated decrease is equal to or lower than a threshold. 7. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 6,wherein the equivalent stiffness calculation step includes applying a finite-element method to the tube bundle to calculate the equivalent stiffness. 8. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 1,wherein the at least one tube array is composed of a plurality of U-shaped tubes, the U-shaped tubes extending in same plane, having a common curvature center, and having bent parts with different curvature radii from each other. 9. The contact force evaluation method according to claim 1,wherein the tube bundle is a heat-transfer tube bundle of a steam generator of a PWR nuclear power generating plant.