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2018-01-01
Before 1 January 2018, will Russia and Egypt sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal?
binary
Egypt and Russia are in discussions to establish a Russian industrial zone at Port Said on the Suez Canal (<a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/12/c_136436144.htm"target="_blank">Xinhua Net</a>, <a href = "https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL4N1ME2UT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.rt.com/business/368167-egypt-russian-industrial-zone/"target="_blank">RT News</a>, <a href = "https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/09/06/establishment-russian-industrial-zone-postponed-early-2018/"target="_blank">Daily News Egypt</a>, <a href = "http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/egypt-and-russia-egypt-s-role-russia-might-increase-not-necessarily-1195223955"target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> Russia and Egypt did not sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>
2018-01-11
gjopen
["https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/12/13/first-phase-russian-industrial-zone-implementation-starting-next-month/", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36333/More-than-30B-Russian-deals-expected-during-Putin%E2%80%99s-visit", "https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/agreement", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/putin-visit-egypt-week-51646133", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1206931/middle-east", "http://www.europe.easybranches.com/bulgaria/Russia-will-Build-the-First-Nuclear-Power-Plant-in-Egypt-145002", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/640233", "https://en.el-balad.com/2359519", "http://cementegypt.com/en/category-%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA/entry-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%B3.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637962", "http://www.nileinternational.net/en/?p=84823", "http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/56354", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/285438/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt,-Russia-sign-protocol-to-resume-MoscowCairo-.aspx", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36091/Egyptian-Russian-industrial-city-project-to-be-announced-during-Putin", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/463-before-1-january-2018-will-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-reach-an-agreement-on-payment-of-the-uk-s-outstanding-liabilities-to-the-eu", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36439/Sisi-aims-for-more-Russian-investment-in-SCZone", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mada_Masr", "http://www.egyptindependent.com/russian-industrial-zone-construction-works-begin-2018-sca-chairman/", "https://www.madamasr.com/en/2017/12/11/news/u/egypt-left-empty-handed-after-putin-visit/", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/12/c_136818164.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-russia/putin-egypts-sisi-discuss-restart-of-flights-sign-nuclear-deal-idUSKBN1E51BR", "http://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/121824?lang=en-us", "http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/56355", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36744/What-you-need-to-know-about-Russian-Industrial-Zone-in", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/639672"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2017-11-07
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/683
True
2018-01-01
Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles?
binary
Amazon completed its first drone delivery in the U.K., the debut of its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) shipping service (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/14/amazon-claims-first-successful-prime-air-drone-delivery"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>). U.S. commercial drone rules were finalized at the end of August 2016 (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/uas/media/Part_107_Summary.pdf"target = "_blank">FAA</a>). Among other things, they require operators to maintain visual line of site with the drones (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=20515"target = "_blank">FAA</a>, <a href = "http://fortune.com/2016/06/21/drone-faa-rules-commercial-business/"target = "_blank">Fortune</a>). Since passing the regulation, U.S. regulators have been granting waivers for companies to test drone delivery (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waivers_granted/"target = "_blank">FAA</a>). 7-Eleven, which became the first major company to use drones for deliveries in the U.S.,did so without a waiver because its drone operators maintained line of site for short range delivery (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/20/7-eleven-beats-google-and-amazon-to-the-first-regular-commercial-drone-delivery-service-in-the-us.html"target = "_blank">CNBC</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration did not grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>
2018-01-08
gjopen
["https://www.expouav.com/news/latest/perfect-union-us-regulations-trend-toward-coexistence-uavs-aircraft/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/25/amazon-to-test-drone-delivery-uk-government", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waiver_safety_explanation_guidelines/", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/airports_participating_in_laanc/", "http://insideunmannedsystems.com/amazon-gets-permission-to-test-delivery-drones-outdoors/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/amazon-s-dream-of-drone-deliveries-get-closer-with-trump-order", "https://www.recode.net/2017/2/9/14462390/trump-freeze-regulation-faa-drone-delivery", "http://www.precisionhawk.com/media/topic/faa-grants-precisionhawk-bvlos-waiver/", "https://www.retail-week.com/topics/technology/amazons-innovation-boss-on-building-autonomous-drones/7025959.article", "http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/09/22/drone-hits-army-helicopter/", "https://jrupprechtlaw.com/amazon-drone-delivery-3-major-legal-problems-amazon-prime-air", "http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&amp;Sect2=HITOFF&amp;p=1&amp;u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&amp;r=20&amp;f=G&amp;l=50&amp;co1=AND&amp;d=PTXT&amp;s1=%22Amazon+Technologies%22&amp;OS=%22Amazon+Technologies%22&amp;RS=%22Amazon+Technologies%22", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/focus_area_pathfinder/", "http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/applied-aviation-research-center-precisionhawk-continue-uas-collaboration", "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/10/11/2017-21878/request-for-emergency-processing-of-collection-of-information-by-the-office-of-management-and-budget", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/10/faa_gives_amazon_permission_to_test_delivery_drones_in_the_u_s.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/06/27/drones-would-get-rules-deliveries-traffic-management-under-house-bill/428836001/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/581785", "https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2017-23746.pdf", "http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2017/11/28/amazon-hq-2-nevada-skies-drones-faa-pilot-program/902286001/", "http://fortune.com/2017/10/05/amazon-delivery-service-ups-fedex/", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_integration_pilot_program/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-to-test-federal-local-sharing-of-drone-regulation-1508320807", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/delivery-by-drone-switzerland-tests-it-in-populated-areas/2017/09/28/27cc04c2-a48a-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_story.html?utm_term=.04eaecf1e31e", "https://www.wired.com/story/switzerlands-getting-a-delivery-network-for-blood-toting-drones/"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2017-01-06
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379
True
2018-05-25
Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass?
binary
There is growing discussion regarding the repeal of Ireland's Eighth Amendment, which bans most abortions (<a href = "http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1983/ca/8/enacted/en/print"target="_blank">Irish Statute Book</a>, <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/eoghan-murphy-abortion-a-matter-for-a-woman-and-her-doctor-1.3328568"target="_blank">Irish Times</a>). Prior to the referendum, the government will publish a bill outlining the exact text of the referendum (<a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/abortion-wording-needs-to-be-decided-by-february-for-june-vote-1.3325728"target="_blank">Irish Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43129019"target="_blank">BBC</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> A referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-referendum"target="_blank">Eighth Amendment passed</a>. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 25 May 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
2018-05-29
gjopen
{}
Not applicable/available for this question.
2018-03-07
1.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/896
True
2017-01-20
Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017?
binary
This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 20 January 2017 <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, which sets rules for trade between the United States and eleven other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, was signed in February 2016 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/The_Trans-Pacific_Partnership_trade_deal:_An_overview" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). In recent months, the deal has come under scrutiny as both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton criticized the effects of free trade on American manufacturing (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/business/obama-plans-another-appeal-for-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). President Obama hopes the deal will be ratified before the end of his term, but Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell has ruled out a vote during the Obama presidency (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-makes-last-ditch-push-for-vote-on-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal-1473804821" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/29/mcconnell-the-trans-pacific-partnership-is-dead-until-a-president-revives-it/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279" target="_blank">Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/18-will-negotiations-on-the-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-ttip-be-completed-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?</a>
2017-01-20
gjopen
["http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/text.pdf", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4OPEeivZm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-china-apec-idUSKBN13D0BI", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-2017/www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohr83SZB", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-peru-idUSKBN13626H?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-peacetalks-idUSKCN12I0O2?il=0", "https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/trump-win-is-the-only-way-to-stop-tpp-catastrophe", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohp7Y86o", "http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/ratifying-pacific-trade-pact-not-on-vietnam-assembly-agenda-1.434792", "http://highlandcountypress.com/Content/In-The-News/In-The-News/Article/Senators-to-Obama-Trans-Pacific-Partnership-shouldn-t-be-considered-until-renegotiated/2/20/35152", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-wealth-more-jobs-but-not-for-everyone-what-fuels-the-backlash-on-trade.html?emc=edit_ta_20160928&amp;nlid=70183565&amp;ref=cta&amp;_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-2017/www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4OPEeivZm", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/tpp-trade-deal-trump-obama-trip/", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohr83SZB", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summmit-froman-idUSKBN13D2HG?il=0", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-pledge-dump-tpp-just-first-step-anti-trade-n687191", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-2017/www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohp7Y86o", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2016-10-14
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299
True
2019-01-01
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
binary
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank&quot;">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
2020-01-05
gjopen
{}
Not applicable/available for this question.
2018-09-28
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1010
True
2016-12-31
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017?
binary
For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified India as the 19th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/india" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/251" target="_blank">Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/245" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/211" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?</a> This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in India before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>
2017-03-30
gjopen
["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2015/05/05/india-s-gujarat-faces-atrocity-risks-despite-new-development-efforts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_India", "http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-witnesses-lowest-civilians-deaths-in-25-years-due-to-extremism-report-1442701", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/army-to-deploy-remote-controlled-guns-at-loc-to-take-on-infiltrators/story-HDBgHHXgSsYzvyDeGOqDmO.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/299647", "http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/currency-ban-has-ended-terror-funding-stone-pelting-says-manohar-parrikar-1625527", "http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/database/indiafatalities.htm", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-plans-five-layer-lock-at-Pakistan-border/articleshow/51770756.cms", "http://mha.nic.in/sites/upload_files/mha/files/AR(E)1516.pdf", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2016/01/11/2016-wikisurvey-results", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/j-k-civilian-deaths-in-terrorism-related-violence-down-by-90/story-bRqpKWB56KmeziiRjbNXBO.html", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?chart=casualties&amp;casualties_type=b&amp;casualties_max=&amp;dtp2=all&amp;country=92", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2016-08-09
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/256
True
2017-04-30
Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?
binary
In a June 2016 tax reform blueprint, House Republicans proposed a “border adjustment tax,” a tax levied on imported goods (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtodd/2017/01/17/what-is-a-border-adjustment-tax/#3dc8e88d1d47"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). Such a tax is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others , but has been criticized by President Trump and other leaders (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/10/what-is-a-border-adjusted-tax-mean-and-will-it-happen.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-18/trump-is-right-border-adjustment-tax-is-complicated"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2016/12/08/border-adjustability-is-already-fueling-tax-reform-controversy/#3d4407c942bb"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). A border adjustment tax on specific countries or industries will count. The tax does not need to take effect or become law for a "yes” resolution. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> <sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/370"target="_blank">whether Russia and Cuba will announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377-before-30-april-2017-will-the-u-s-provide-notice-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta"target="_blank">whether the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA.</a></sub> <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>
2017-05-02
gjopen
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-exclusive-idUSKBN1622J5", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/15/donald-trump-tax-reform-gop/", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/322971-flake-becomes-latest-gop-senator-to-raise-concerns-about-border-tax-proposal", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/us/politics/trump-border-tax-import-koch.html", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2017_schedule.htm", "https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/donald-trump-signals-move-to-border-adjustment-tax-1.2989769", "http://fortune.com/2016/11/07/us-tariff-chinese-steel/", "http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/donald-trump-signals-timing-of-border-tax-20170228-gumz7e#ixzz4ayfSF9wX", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-tax-idUKKBN16Q0AD", "http://www.wsj.com/graphics/border-tax/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-probe-could-hurt-donald-trumps-clout-in-congress-1490053226", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/25/republicans-switch-focus-tax-healthcare-plans-collapse/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/02/23/us-uk-must-target-law-firms-facilitating-african-corruption/#f008eba12289", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade-idUSKBN168397", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/03/06/congress-should-focus-on-proven-pro-growth-tax-reform-not-the-border-adjustment-tax/#19c34f0f8366", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-28/ryan-said-to-forge-unexpected-alliance-with-bannon-on-border-tax", "https://www.axios.com/trump-econ-advisor-no-go-on-house-border-adjustment-tax-2282642439.html", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/25/republicans-taxes-healthcare-bill/", "http://www.house.gov/legislative/", "https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-24/trump-signals-support-for-border-adjustment-tax-plan-pushed-by-house-republicans", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/news/economy/tax-reform-mnuchin/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/us/politics/trump-concedes-health-law-overhaul-is-unbelievably-complex.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=a-lede-package-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/news/economy/border-adjustment-tax-trump-trump-congress/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/opinion/the-case-for-a-border-adjusted-tax.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_disjunction"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2017-02-03
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405
True
2016-04-29
Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?
binary
Iranian conservatives include both traditional and hardline camps (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/04/15/irans-conservative-consensus-on-the-nuclear-deal/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>). Hardliners have held most of the seats in Iran's parliament, the Majles, since 2004, when they overturned a reformist majority (<a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/jun/15/irans-parliamentary-elections-february-2016-similar-turkey" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/13/how-to-get-reelected-if-you-are-an-iranian-mp/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/parliament" target = "_blank">Iran primer</a>). The election is scheduled for 25 February 2016.
2016-05-02
gjopen
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/213530", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-parliament-in-the-balance-in-election-run-off/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/04/29/1061353/voting-underway-in-iran-s-run-off-parliamentary-elections", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/iran-elections-president-rouhanis-moderate-allies-win-second-round-2777397/", "http://www.eurasiareview.com/12052016-the-second-iranian-elections-analysis/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2016/apr/22/iran-runoff-parliamentary-elections-tehranbureau", "http://www.dw.com/en/reformists-ahead-in-irans-parliamentary-elections/a-19226319", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/world/middleeast/iran-ali-larijani.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/179659", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Review", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XO0RK", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/ZBup7L4iszUFBYlTLs2NXO/Irans-moderates-make-modest-gains-in-runoff-election.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-start-idUSKCN0XQ09H", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36178276", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/01052016", "http://irannewsupdate.com/report-analysis/23-sham-election/2711-election-runoff-in-iran-but-to-what-end.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-assembly-experts-chairmanship-jannati-amini-vote.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36178276", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/khamenei-hezbollah-condemn-oic-statement-saudi.html"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2015-12-15
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/99
True
2016-03-31
Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?
binary
<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>According to the constitution of Brazil, President Rousseff would be impeached if the Chamber of Deputies authorizes, by a two-thirds vote, legal proceedings to be initiated against her (<a href="http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2006/teams/willr3/const.htm" target="_blank">Brazilian Constitution</a>). President Rousseff faces a continuing economic slump, a bribery scandal affecting members of her party, and new legal claims that she broke the nation's fiscal responsibility law (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/17/world/americas/brazilians-protest-to-urge-president-dilma-rousseffs-ouster.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/11/us-brazil-rousseff-impeachment-idUSKCN0QG0BS20150811" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9429ae3c-44f4-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10478" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target = "_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62-will-there-be-a-new-king-of-saudi-arabia-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?</a>
2016-04-01
gjopen
["http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-embattled-president-dilma-rousseff-says-she-will-never-resign-2016-3", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/20/brazil-corruption-impeachment-probe", "http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-biggest-party-dumps-rousseff-2016-3", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d39a416-f222-11e5-a609-e9f2438ee05b.html#ixzz43xQxmiiS", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/brazil-president-dilma-rousseff-closer-impeachment-coalition-partner-quits", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-president-of-brazil-resists-calls-for-her-resignation.html?_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0WU1AC", "https://apple.news/AkV9gJvGwQVijQ_M88Wp_6Q", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt3ouQKFN9Q", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/30/rolls-royce-cooperate-brazil-investigation-petrobras-bribery", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/03/economist-explains-16", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeachment-vote.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-president-of-brazil-resists-calls-for-her-resignation.html", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&amp;sl=pt&amp;u=http://www.blogdozedefatima.com.br/%3Fp%3D8247&amp;prev=search", "http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-231B-10828", "https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/03/dilma-rousseff-pt-coup-golpe-petrobras-lavajato/", "http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/78444109/unaoil-and-trace-how-the-ahsanis-fooled-the-world", "https://twitter.com/elizondogabriel/status/714895908438204416?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&amp;sl=pt&amp;u=http://f7online.com.br/2016/03/29/lula-ve-democracia-em-risco-e-diz-dilma-resistira-sem-pmdb/&amp;prev=search", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-president-dilma-rousseff-reiterates-that-she-wont-resign-1458677495", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/tablet/wp/2016/03/25/2016/03/25/biggest-story-you-missed-brazil-is-in-trouble-and-the-olympics-are-just-months-away", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35914461"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2015-09-07
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/22
True
2016-09-30
Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?
binary
This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30/2016. In the wake of protests over elections held in 2009, the government of Iran began blocking access to Facebook and Twitter. Some Iranian government officials use these social media channels, and many citizens access them illegally through virtual private networks and other means, but the official ban remains in place (<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/social-media/12105631/Twitter-and-YouTube-unblocked-in-Iran-for-some-users-after-sanctions-lifted.html" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/4/iran-twitter-rouhaniinternetcensorship.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera America</a>, <a href="https://www.iranhumanrights.org/2015/05/officials-re-affirm-facebook-blocked/" target="_blank">International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/179" target="_blank">Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136" target="_blank">Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/197" target="_blank">Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?</a>
2016-10-04
gjopen
["https://cyber.law.harvard.edu/node/99511", "http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950222001323", "http://phys.org/news/2016-08-iran-rounds-social-network-users.html", "http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-pokemon-go-ban/3452601.html", "http://time.com/4338539/iran-headscarves-model-arrests/", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-saudi-arabia-twitter-social-media-psychological-war.html", "http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-social-media-foreign-move-data/27764252.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/iranian-models-arrested-for-posting-pictures-without-headscarves/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/social-media/12105631/Twitter-and-YouTube-unblocked-in-Iran-for-some-users-after-sanctions-lifted.html", "http://www.techtimes.com/articles/161955/20160530/iran-orders-foreign-social-media-and-messaging-apps-to-store-data-within-its-borders.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_YouTube#.C2.A0Iran", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36302405", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/6LHhwsf9SGah9urkThewBO/Iran-demands-social-media-hand-over-data-on-its-citizens.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/265126", "http://www.catchnews.com/world-news/operation-spider-2-iranian-models-find-their-instagram-accounts-hacked-by-revolutionary-guards-1458311887.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/07/21/netizen_report_some_iranian_hardliners_want_the_government_to_stop_blocking.html", "http://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_78504588/iran-immer-mehr-ignorieren-verbote-von-facebook-und-twitter.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/iran-destroys-100000-corrupting-satellite-dishes-160724202722493.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21699462-supreme-leader-clipping-wings-reformist-president-whos", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198-will-iran-officially-lift-its-ban-on-either-facebook-or-twitter-before-1-october-2016/www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/298773", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/298773", "http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/4/iran-twitter-rouhaniinternetcensorship.html"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2016-05-10
0.0
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["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-20", 0.0], ["2016-09-20", 0.0], ["2016-09-21", 0.0], ["2016-09-21", 0.0], ["2016-09-21", 0.0], ["2016-09-22", 0.0], ["2016-09-22", 0.0], ["2016-09-23", 0.0], ["2016-09-24", 0.0], ["2016-09-24", 0.0], ["2016-09-25", 0.0], ["2016-09-25", 0.0], ["2016-09-26", 0.0], ["2016-09-27", 0.0], ["2016-09-27", 0.0], ["2016-09-28", 0.0], ["2016-09-28", 0.0], ["2016-09-28", 0.0], ["2016-09-29", 0.0], ["2016-09-29", 0.0], ["2016-09-30", 0.0], ["2016-09-30", 0.0]]
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198
True
2017-11-01
Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Tunisia between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?
binary
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Violence against civilians, or Remote violence; and 'FATALITIES' is greater than or equal to 1. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released. If a qualifying event is recorded, the question will be closed retroactively with the date of the first event as the end date of the question. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr>
2017-11-07
gjopen
["http://af.reuters.com/article/tunisiaNews/idAFL8N1MQ16A?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=tunisiaNews", "http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1MQ16A?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=tunisiaNews"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2017-10-06
0.0
[["2017-10-11", 0.75], ["2017-10-11", 0.8], ["2017-10-11", 0.425], ["2017-10-11", 0.42], ["2017-10-11", 0.145], ["2017-10-11", 0.14], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.065], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.2], ["2017-10-12", 0.2], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.11], ["2017-10-12", 0.11], ["2017-10-13", 0.13], ["2017-10-13", 0.13], ["2017-10-13", 0.09], ["2017-10-13", 0.07], ["2017-10-13", 0.07], ["2017-10-14", 0.065], ["2017-10-14", 0.065], ["2017-10-14", 0.06], ["2017-10-14", 0.09], ["2017-10-14", 0.11], ["2017-10-15", 0.11], ["2017-10-15", 0.15], ["2017-10-15", 0.15], ["2017-10-16", 0.165], ["2017-10-16", 0.165], ["2017-10-16", 0.15], ["2017-10-16", 0.15], ["2017-10-16", 0.15], ["2017-10-16", 0.165], ["2017-10-17", 0.165], ["2017-10-17", 0.165], ["2017-10-17", 0.165], ["2017-10-17", 0.165], ["2017-10-17", 0.2], ["2017-10-17", 0.2], ["2017-10-17", 0.22], ["2017-10-18", 0.18], ["2017-10-18", 0.1], ["2017-10-18", 0.085], ["2017-10-18", 0.085], ["2017-10-18", 0.085], ["2017-10-19", 0.085], ["2017-10-19", 0.085], ["2017-10-19", 0.085], ["2017-10-19", 0.085], ["2017-10-20", 0.06], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-21", 0.05], ["2017-10-21", 0.05], ["2017-10-22", 0.02], ["2017-10-22", 0.035], ["2017-10-22", 0.035], ["2017-10-22", 0.05], ["2017-10-22", 0.05], ["2017-10-22", 0.05], ["2017-10-23", 0.05], ["2017-10-23", 0.035], ["2017-10-23", 0.03], ["2017-10-23", 0.03], ["2017-10-23", 0.02], ["2017-10-23", 0.03], ["2017-10-23", 0.03], ["2017-10-23", 0.04], ["2017-10-23", 0.04], ["2017-10-24", 0.04], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-25", 0.02], ["2017-10-25", 0.03], ["2017-10-25", 0.05], ["2017-10-25", 0.05], ["2017-10-25", 0.05], ["2017-10-25", 0.04], ["2017-10-25", 0.04], ["2017-10-26", 0.04], ["2017-10-26", 0.025], ["2017-10-26", 0.025], ["2017-10-26", 0.025], ["2017-10-26", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.025], ["2017-10-27", 0.02], ["2017-10-28", 0.02], ["2017-10-28", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-29", 0.015], ["2017-10-29", 0.015], ["2017-10-30", 0.015], ["2017-10-30", 0.015], ["2017-10-30", 0.015], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01]]
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/641
True
2016-02-02
Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?
binary
<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>More than 90% of California is experiencing a 'severe drought' or worse (<a href = "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA" target = "_blank">Drought Monitor</a>). On 1 April 2015, Governor Jerry Brown imposed California's first mandatory water restrictions, requiring a 25% reduction in urban water use until the end of February 2016 (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647994-why-golden-state-so-bad-managing-water-price-wrong" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/4.1.15_Executive_Order.pdf" target = "_blank">CA Executive Order 1</a>). On 13 November 2015, a further executive order ruled that if drought conditions persist beyond January 2016, water restrictions will be extended until 31 October 2016 (<a href = "https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/11.13.15_EO_B-36-15.pdf" target = "_blank">CA Executive Order 2</a>). Any extension of restrictions on urban water use will count, even if there are modifications to those restrictions.
2016-02-08
gjopen
["http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/020216_7_proposed_emer_reg_text.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/comments010616/index.shtml", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/econ_impact_report_012216.pdf", "http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-california-20160121-htmlstory.html", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/draft_supplier_tiers_012216.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/emergency_reg_digest_conserv_012216.pdf", "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA", "http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article56090190.html", "http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/.html/wat_table_of_contents.html", "http://www.ocregister.com/articles/snowpack-701151-water-california.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21689612-even-torrential-rain-brought-el-ni-o-may-not-end-californias-drought-all-leaves-are", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/press_room/press_releases/2016/pr2316_reg_extension.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/notice_prop_rulemaking_conserv_012216.pdf", "http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/02/02/californians-miss-water-conservation-targets-for-third-straight-month/", "http://www.wateronline.com/doc/californians-debate-easing-water-restrictions-0001", "http://www.environmental-expert.com/companies/the-shibatani-group-inc-41206", "http://www.swrcb.ca.gov/press_room/press_releases/2016/pr2316_reg_extension.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/publications_forms/publications/factsheets/docs/emergency_reg_fs011916.pdf", "http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/water-officials-vote-extend-california-drought-emergency-36682284", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-set-to-extend-curbs-on-water-use-1454460453", "http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/const-toc.html", "http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-californians-have-their-eye-water-and-jobs-wary", "http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php?getall=1", "http://www.abc10.com/story/news/local/california/2016/01/28/drought-water-restrictions-to-continue/79491236/", "http://www.sfgate.com/drought/article/California-water-limits-might-be-eased-slightly-6762776.php"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2016-01-12
1.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/111
True
2018-01-01
Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017?
binary
In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (<a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/un-government-declare-famine-in-parts-of-south-sudan/3731713.html"target="_blank">Voa News</a>), and other countries in Africa, including Somalia, are facing the possibility of famine in the near future (<a href = "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning System</a>, <a href = "http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-in-action/stories/stories-detail/en/c/883197/"target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-famine-idUSKBN1AP2IT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href = "http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean"target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39039255"target="_blank">BBC</a>. Both the declaration and the famine need to occur in 2017. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> The UN did not declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>
2018-01-02
gjopen
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Not applicable/available for this question.
2017-08-22
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/564
True
2020-01-01
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?
binary
Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-q-a.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
2020-01-01
gjopen
{}
Not applicable/available for this question.
2018-12-07
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1054
True
2016-12-11
Will The Birth of a Nation be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama?
binary
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 11 December 2016. Birth of Nation was not nominated for "Best Motion Picture". <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2017-nominees-winners-list-20161212-story.html" target = "_blank">(LA Times)</a> <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> <i>The Birth of a Nation</i> tells the story of Nat Turner, who led an uprising of slaves in Virginia in 1831 (<a href="http://www.foxsearchlight.com/thebirthofanation/" target="_blank">Fox Searchlight Pictures</a>, <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_birth_of_a_nation_2016/" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4196450/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). Nominations for the 74th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be announced on 12 December 2016 at 8:00am EST (<a href="http://www.goldenglobes.com/award-rules%E2%80%A2entry-forms" target="_blank">Golden Globe Awards</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification (344)" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> <sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/295" target="_blank">whether the book "Superforecasting" will be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017</a>.</sub>
2016-12-12
gjopen
["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Birth_of_a_Nation", "http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/film/the-birth-of-a-nation-film-review-don-t-fall-for-saint-nate-a3416431.html", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/golden-globes-film-nominations-2017/sort/recent/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/395582", "http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/critics-choice-awards-2016-film-nomination-complete-list-951822", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38291774", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2017/picture/"]
Not applicable/available for this question.
2016-11-04
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/344
True
2018-07-01
Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?
binary
For more information on the accession process see: <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en"target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/check-current-status/index_en.htm"target="_blank">European Commission</a>. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub> <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
2018-07-06
gjopen
{}
Not applicable/available for this question.
2018-05-09
0.0
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/944
True

Raw Dataset from "Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models"

This documentation provides an overview of the raw dataset utilized in our research paper, Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models, authored by Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han, and Jacob Steinhardt.

Data Source and Format

The dataset originates from forecasting platforms such as Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, INFER, Polymarket, and Manifold. These platforms engage users in predicting the likelihood of future events by assigning probabilities to various outcomes. The data structure encompasses:

  • Background Description: Provides context for the forecasting question.
  • Resolution Criterion: Defines how and when the question will be resolved.
  • Timestamps: Includes the publication date (begin date), the forecast submission deadline (close date), and the resolution date (resolve date).

Forecasts can be submitted any time between the begin date and the earlier of the resolve date or close date. Refer to Table 1 in the paper for a detailed example of these fields in action.

Dataset Composition

Our dataset aggregates forecasting questions from the aforementioned platforms, resulting in a comprehensive collection of:

  • 50,343 Questions: Spanning from 2015 to 2024.
  • 6,534,042 User Forecasts: Offering a rich dataset for analysis.
  • Question Types: Includes 33,664 binary questions, 9,725 multiple-choice questions, 4,019 numerical questions, and 1,346 questions of other types.

The questions cover a broad spectrum of topics worldwide, providing a diverse and extensive dataset for forecasting analysis.

Research Significance

This dataset plays a crucial role in our study, enabling us to explore the capabilities of language models in forecasting and their potential to achieve human-level performance in predicting future events.

For more details on our methodology and findings, please refer to our paper linked at the beginning of this document.

How to Cite

If you find our dataset and research useful for your work, please cite it using the following BibTeX entry:

@misc{halawi2024approaching,
      title={Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models}, 
      author={Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Chen Yueh-Han and Jacob Steinhardt},
      year={2024},
      eprint={2402.18563},
      archivePrefix={arXiv},
      primaryClass={cs.LG}
}

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