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2018-11-27

In Weyerhaeuser Company v. US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), will the Supreme Court rule that the FWS erroneously applied the Endangered Species Act (ESA) to any private land in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana?

binary

<p>In 2012, the FWS published a <a href="https://www.fws.gov/policy/library/2012/2012-13488.pdf" target="_blank">final rule</a> designating 1,544 acres of private land in Louisiana as "critical habitat" for the endangered dusky gopher frog (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/weyerhaeuser-company-v-united-states-fish-wildlife-service/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). The dusky gopher frog is not found on that land, and Weyerhaeuser Company is asking the Supreme Court to rule on whether the FWS has the authority to designate that private land as "critical habitat" when that land is neither a "habitat" nor "critical" to the species in question (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/justices-add-frog-case-merits-docket/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. </p><hr> This question closed as <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-71_omjp.pdf" target="_blank">"No"</a> with an end date of 27 November 2018. _{See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.}<p></p>

2018-12-03

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1007

True

2016-09-29

Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will any US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?

binary

This question was closed on option A with a closing date of 9/29/2016. On 29 September 2016, California's governor signed a bill into law which permits the use of autonomous vehicles on some state roads (<a href="http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a31011/california-clears-fully-autonomous-cars-to-drive-on-public-roads/" target="_blank">Road & Track</a>, <a href="http://eastcountytoday.net/governor-signs-bill-to-allow-first-purely-autonomous-vehicle-on-a-california-public-road/" target="_blank">East County Today</a>, <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billHistoryClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB1592" target="_blank">California Legislative Information</a>). Most states neither explicitly allow nor explicitly ban the operation of autonomous vehicles on public roads, making such vehicles de facto legal (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/as-self-driving-cars-come-to-more-states-regulators-take-a-back-seat/2015/08/28/7a29413e-474f-11e5-8ab4-c73967a143d3_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). However, several states are considering legislation that would explicitly allow autonomous vehicles to operate on public roads (<a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-legislation.aspx#Introduced 2016" target="_blank">National Conference of State Legislatures</a>, <a href="https://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/wiki/index.php/Automated_Driving:_Legislative_and_Regulatory_Action#Current" target="_blank">The Center for Internet and Society</a>). Autonomous vehicles are those that can operate without the active control or monitoring of a human driver, at least under some conditions. This does not refer to cars with regular features such as adaptive cruise control, lane assist, crash avoidance, emergency braking, and other technology unless those features allow a driver to cede all control and monitoring. Any legislation enacted allowing autonomous vehicles on public roads will resolve the question as "yes," even if the legislation places restrictions on those autonomous vehicles (e.g., by limiting operation to certain roads or conditions, or only allowing operation for the purposes of research or testing). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/167" target="_blank">Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/185" target="_blank">Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/260" target="_blank">When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?</a>

2016-10-04

gjopen

["https://www.legislature.mi.gov/(S(memnahwpi4glxvkfxugfrf02))/mileg.aspx?page=GetObject&amp;objectname=2016-HJ-09-22-068", "http://3dprintingfromscratch.com/2016/09/new-zealand-offers-the-first-drone-pizza-delivery-in-the-world/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwhyoUyJNoY", "http://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/michigan-legislation-to-allow-public-testing-of-autonomous-driving-vehicles-ar174398.html", "https://www.bishopranch.com/media-coverage/driverless-shuttles-coming-east-bay-tested/", "http://www.hybridcars.com/nevada-grants-first-ever-autonomous-vehicle-drivers-license/", "http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billStatusClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB1592", "http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2016/09/19/autonomous-car-bills-amended-accommodate-google/90713382/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/technology/self-driving-cars-guidelines.html?_r=0", "https://www.legislature.mi.gov/(S(jnbqxxwm4ehwfqn2tosk01v3))/mileg.aspx?page=GetObject&amp;objectname=2016-HC-10-19-069", "http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060043030/print", "https://michiganpeninsulanews.com/featured/1330-michigan-house-committee-passes-autonomous-vehicles-bills-following-new-federal-policy/", "http://www.aeltracker.org/bill-details/10723/california-2016-ab-1592", "http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-dmv-driverless-rules-20160920-snap-story.html", "http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a31011/california-clears-fully-autonomous-cars-to-drive-on-public-roads/", "http://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/30/65145/brown-s-2016-signing-tsunami-key-bills-the-governo/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/technology/no-driver-bring-it-on-how-pittsburgh-became-ubers-testing-ground.html?emc=edit_th_20160911&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nlid=28699183", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-selfdriving-idUSKCN11Q001?il=0", "http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/09/michigan-looks-to-lead-the-way-in-autonomous-driving.html", "http://m.landlinemag.com/Story.aspx?StoryID=31957#.V-BPHpA8KrU", "http://www.pcmag.me/a/2508472", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/self-driving-cars-must-meet-15-benchmarks-in-new-u-s-guidance", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/335959", "http://fortune.com/2016/09/29/california-law-test-autonomous-shuttle/", "http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2016/08/22/whos-watching-privacy-groups-warn-changes-to-driverless-vehicle-bill-could-ease-driver-data-protections/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-08-12

1.0

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0.8], ["2016-09-28", 0.79], ["2016-09-28", 0.795], ["2016-09-28", 0.8], ["2016-09-28", 0.8], ["2016-09-28", 0.8], ["2016-09-29", 0.8], ["2016-09-29", 0.8], ["2016-09-29", 0.8]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/261

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>. <hr> This question resolution was changed from 'No' to 'Yes' with resolutions further detailed here (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/south-sudan-election-risks-prolonging-civil-war-170909073239271.html", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/31/no-country-for-civilians-south-sudan/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

0.0

[["2017-06-30", 0.05], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.625], ["2017-07-01", 0.5], ["2017-07-01", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.4], ["2017-07-02", 0.65], ["2017-07-02", 0.65], ["2017-07-03", 0.325], ["2017-07-03", 0.1], ["2017-07-03", 0.1], ["2017-07-03", 0.1], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-04", 0.05], ["2017-07-04", 0.075], ["2017-07-04", 0.075], ["2017-07-04", 0.125], ["2017-07-04", 0.1], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-05", 0.15], ["2017-07-06", 0.25], ["2017-07-06", 0.25], ["2017-07-07", 0.25], ["2017-07-07", 0.25], ["2017-07-07", 0.25], ["2017-07-08", 0.2], ["2017-07-08", 0.2], ["2017-07-09", 0.225], ["2017-07-09", 0.225], ["2017-07-09", 0.125], ["2017-07-09", 0.1], ["2017-07-09", 0.1], ["2017-07-09", 0.1], ["2017-07-10", 0.1], ["2017-07-10", 0.1], ["2017-07-10", 0.1], ["2017-07-11", 0.125], ["2017-07-11", 0.125], ["2017-07-11", 0.075], ["2017-07-11", 0.075], ["2017-07-12", 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["2017-09-22", 0.1], ["2017-09-23", 0.1], ["2017-09-23", 0.1], ["2017-09-23", 0.1], ["2017-09-24", 0.1], ["2017-09-24", 0.1], ["2017-09-24", 0.1], ["2017-09-25", 0.1], ["2017-09-25", 0.1], ["2017-09-26", 0.1], ["2017-09-26", 0.1], ["2017-09-27", 0.1], ["2017-09-27", 0.1], ["2017-09-27", 0.1], ["2017-09-28", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.115], ["2017-09-29", 0.115], ["2017-09-29", 0.115], ["2017-09-30", 0.115], ["2017-09-30", 0.115], ["2017-09-30", 0.115], ["2017-10-01", 0.1], ["2017-10-01", 0.1]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/524

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.msf.org/en/article/myanmarbangladesh-msf-surveys-estimate-least-6700-rohingya-were-killed-during-attacks", "https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/flashpoints/2018/02/08/myanmars-place-at-us-military-drills-in-asia-draws-ire/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/27/aung-san-suu-kyi-lives-in-bubble-says-us-diplomat-in-row-with-myanmar?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/833

True

2016-04-24

Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?

binary

Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones. In April 2015, George R.R. Martin told Entertainment Weekly that he hoped to release the book prior to the beginning of season 6 (<a href = "http://www.ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date" target = "_blank">Entertainment Weekly</a>, <a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/winds-winter-may-be-releasing-next-year-unless-meteor-falls-2090340" target = "_blank">International Business Times</a>). The question will close when the release date for the book is announced. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/25-which-main-character-will-be-the-first-to-die-in-season-6-of-the-walking-dead" target = "_blank">Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/125-which-movie-will-win-the-oscar-for-best-picture" target = "_blank">Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture?</a>

2016-04-25

gjopen

["http://www.ew.com/article/2016/01/02/george-rr-martin-thrones-winds-of-winter", "http://www.indiewire.com/article/george-rr-martin-talks-comic-books-taxes-and-hating-game-of-thrones-interviews-20141021", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/81101", "http://www.kpopstarz.com/articles/267733/20160130/winds-winter-release-date-george-r-martin-promises-bittersweet-ending.htm", "http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/01/george-rr-martin-no-winds-of-winter-before-season-6", "http://www.cnet.com/news/the-winds-of-winter-wont-be-done-in-time-for-game-of-thrones-season-6/", "http://pagesix.com/2016/01/02/george-r-r-martin-confesses-to-missing-deadline-for-got-book", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35213335/the-books-not-done---new-game-of-thrones-book-winds-of-winter-delayed-again", "http://www.tor.com/2016/01/13/winds-of-winter-book-publishing-process/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "https://www.yahoo.com/tv/george-r-r-martin-confirms-132937469.html", "http://grrm.livejournal.com/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/04/24/game-of-thrones-plot-spoilers-first-episode-leaks-online/", "http://amazonadviser.com/2016/03/15/when-will-the-winds-of-winter-by-george-r-r-martin-be-released-on-amazon/", "http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2016/01/02/george-r-r-martin-says-the-winds-of-winter-isnt-finished/", "http://grrm.livejournal.com/465247.html", "http://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/index.html", "http://www.parentherald.com/articles/16302/20160118/the-winds-of-winter-release-date-new-update-george-rr-martin-to-finish-the-book-on-time-twow-more-than-300-pages.htm", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2016/01/02/george_rr_martin_says_winds_of_winter_won_t_be_out_before_game_of_thrones.html", "http://www.inquisitr.com/2844975/the-winds-of-winter-release-date-news-update-3-things-you-need-to-know-before-george-rr-martin-publishes-the-book-in-2017/", "http://winteriscoming.net/2015/11/24/a-martinology-update-when-might-the-winds-of-winter-hit-store-shelves/", "http://io9.gizmodo.com/it-turns-out-the-next-game-of-thrones-book-isnt-late-at-1752719159", "http://www.businessinsider.com/game-of-thrones-winds-of-water-book-delayed-2016-1"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-10-05

0.0

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0.0], ["2016-03-28", 0.01], ["2016-03-29", 0.0], ["2016-03-30", 0.0], ["2016-03-30", 0.0], ["2016-03-31", 0.0], ["2016-04-01", 0.0], ["2016-04-02", 0.0], ["2016-04-03", 0.0], ["2016-04-03", 0.0], ["2016-04-04", 0.0], ["2016-04-05", 0.0], ["2016-04-05", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-07", 0.0], ["2016-04-07", 0.0], ["2016-04-08", 0.0], ["2016-04-09", 0.0], ["2016-04-09", 0.0], ["2016-04-10", 0.0], ["2016-04-11", 0.0], ["2016-04-12", 0.0], ["2016-04-13", 0.0], ["2016-04-13", 0.0], ["2016-04-14", 0.0], ["2016-04-14", 0.0], ["2016-04-15", 0.0], ["2016-04-15", 0.0], ["2016-04-16", 0.0], ["2016-04-17", 0.0], ["2016-04-17", 0.0], ["2016-04-18", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-20", 0.0], ["2016-04-21", 0.0], ["2016-04-22", 0.0], ["2016-04-23", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/56

True

2017-03-15

Will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to raise the interest rate on excess reserve balances at or before its scheduled September 2017 meeting?

binary

This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 15 March 2017 (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170315a1.htm"target="_blank">Federa Reserve</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), is the interest paid by the Federal Reserve Bank to its depository institutions on balances that exceed the reserves they are required to hold (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm"target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The IOER is set by the Federal Open Market Comittee (FOMC) and detailed in the implementation notes of the monthly meeting (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). At the January 2017 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances at 0.75 percent (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170201a1.htm"target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The September 2017 meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270"target = "_blank">whether Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356-what-will-the-european-central-bank-ecb-do-with-respect-to-the-deposit-rate-at-its-january-2017-monetary-policy-meeting"target = "_blank">what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with respect to the deposit rate</a> .} </hr>

2017-03-16

gjopen

["https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2016/interest-rate-control-is-more-complicated-than-you-thought", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/455768", "http://fortune.com/2017/02/14/janet-yellen-federal-reserve-interest-rates-congress-testimony/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARL", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/us-2-year-bond-yield-hits-multi-year-high-on-hawkish-fed.html", "http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/8c4318d0-057c-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER", "http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2016/12/fed-watch-december-fomc-preview.html", "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions&quot", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/case-for-fed-rate-hike-now-a-lot-more-compelling-dudley.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/14/stocks-often-stumble-after-second-rate-hike-history-shows.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-idUSKBN16E2X4", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/455216", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/yellen-and-fed-rate-hike-one-last-hurdle.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/fed-s-brainard-says-rate-hike-will-likely-be-appropriate-soon-izrkepvf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-02-24

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/423

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/afghan-president-ghani-tells-country-that-pakistan-was-behind-recent-deadly-attacks/2018/02/02/abcf4cda-082a-11e8-aa61-f3391373867e_story.html?utm_term=.c62100cb6e0f"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/831

True

2015-12-31

Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?

binary

Demonstrations in the capital have been calling for Prime Minister Djukanovic's ouster (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34630358 , http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/protests-won-t-stop-until-montenegro-pm-resigns-09-28-2015 , https://news.vice.com/article/police-break-up-protests-in-montenegro-with-tear-gas-after-weeks-of-demonstrations ). If Djukanovic reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJ will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Djukanovic returns in the interim, the question will remain open.

2016-01-04

gjopen

["http://wire.seenews.com/news/montenegrin-pm-sees-nato-nod-in-dec-elections-in-spring-2016-492113", "http://www.dw.com/en/montenegros-fractious-opposition-takes-to-the-streets/a-18854198", "http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News/Europe/Western/Montenegro", "http://www.rferl.org/content/nato-montenegro-signal-moscow-cannot-stop-enlargement/27403048.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_anti-government_protest_in_Montenegro", "http://peacekeeper.ru/en/?module=news&amp;action=view&amp;id=28639", "http://www.dailynewsmontenegro.com/", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125370.htm", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-plans-new-wave-of-protest-10-29-2015", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151109/1029824230/montenegro-nato-ideology-war.html", "http://wire.seenews.com/news/montenegrin-pm-sees-nato-nod-in-dec-elections-in-spring-2016-49211#", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-protest-calls-for-free-elections-12-20-2015", "http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21683967-montenegros-accession-fills-one-few-remaining-gaps-western-alliance", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-plans-to-surround-state-institutions-11-10-2015", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milo_%C4%90ukanovi%C4%87#Controversy", "http://www.cdm.me/english/what-will-mps-ask-djukanovic", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Podgorica", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegrin-pm-says-he-won-t-resign-10-23-2015", "http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/Why-do-Montenegrins-not-want-to-be-in-NATO.html", "http://www.cdm.me/english/question-time-pm-on-nato-invitation-progress-report-multimillionaires-in-montenegro-privatisations", "http://m.cdm.me/#/article/387081"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-10

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/75

True

2016-12-31

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?

binary

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target ="_blank">Definitions</a> page. According to those criteria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has an ongoing episode of state-led mass killing linked to the government's counterinsurgency efforts in eastern DRC (<a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2015/01/12/trends-over-time-in-state-led-mass-killing-through-2014" target = "_blank">EWP trends</a>). This question pertains to the risk of a new episode of mass killing. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify DRC as one of the 10 countries most at risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target = "_blank">blog</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/128-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-burundi-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-ethiopia-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-myanmar-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a> This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-03-30

gjopen

["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36575584", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201605170512.html", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ACLED_Conflict-Trends-Report-No.49-June-2016_pdf.pdf", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/congo-leader-claims-interference-amid-vote-delay-tension-163807584.html", "http://www.undispatch.com/elections-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-could-mean-trouble/", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/07/28/joseph-kabila-forever-dangers-extended-presidency-democratic-republic-congo", "http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/drc-humanitarian-situation-report-may-june-2016", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/281886", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201605201207.html", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/democratic-republic-of-the-congo", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/dr-congo-president-defies-growing-calls-resign-174446567.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-01/congo-opposition-raise-stakes-as-rally-urges-kabila-to-step-down-irbpa0sw", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/18/congo-braces-for-violence-president-mandate-expires", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/democratic-republic-congo/katanga-tensions-drcs-mineral-heartland", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/244986", "http://www.africanews.com/2016/10/04/drc-icc-urged-to-probe-beni-massacres/", "http://www.voanews.com/a/united-nations-democratic-republic-of-congo-election-kabila/3545781.html", "http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/us-orders-families-of-govt-personnel-to-leave-drc-20160930", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/kinshasa-faces-unrest-congolese-president-refuses-step-down-174506688.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/drc-braced-protests-planned-opposition-160526050328405.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/295447", "http://www.cfr.org/africa-sub-saharan/sub-saharan-security-tracker/p37884"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-08

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/158

True

2016-12-31

Will annual sales of electric vehicles in China reach 500,000 in 2016?

binary

This question was resolved as "yes" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The English Language press releases on the Chinese Association of Automotive Statistics have not included annual sales for electric vehicles in 2016 (<a href = "http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20160120/1305184260.html"target="_blank">CAAM</a>), but the Chinese language press release (<a href = "http://www.caam.org.cn/xiehuidongtai/20170112/1505203997.html"target="_blank">CAAM</a>) shows that 507,000 electric vehicles were sold in 2016. The numbers increased 63.9% and 65.1% respectively comparing to the year before, with 409,000 BEV units sold and 98,000 PHEV units sold. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> In 2012 the Chinese government set a target of reaching 500,000 annual unit sales of electric vehicles by 2015 (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/05/30/china-poised-for-plug-in-electric-vehicle-volume-growth-going-forward/" target = "_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href = "http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/19/chinas-electric-cars-sales-boom-to-continue-sales-to-double-in-2016-china-minister-states/" target = "_blank">CleanTechnica</a>, <a href = "http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/in-coal-powered-china-electric-car-surge-fuels-fear-of-worsening-smog/" target = "_blank">Scientific American</a>). In 2015, electric vehicle sales, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), in China were 331,092 (<a href = "http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20160120/1305184260.html" target = "_blank">China Association of Automobile Manufacturers</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will be closed when the 2016 data is released by the <a href = "http://www.caam.org.cn/english/newslist/a101-1.html" target = "_blank">China Association of Automobile Manufacturers’ (CAAM) website</a>. Monthly and yearly data on electric vehicle sales are included in periodic press releases titled "New Energy Vehicles." The January release is cited above. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/155-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-dollar-against-the-renminbi-on-30-september-2016" target = "_blank">What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/167-will-tesla-motors-deliver-more-than-80-000-bevs-to-customers-in-calendar-year-2016" target = "_blank">Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?</a>

2017-02-23

gjopen

["http://www.caam.org.cn/hangye/20161230/1005203391.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/384730", "http://www.caam.org.cn/qiyexinwen/20170104/0905203522.html", "http://www.hybridcars.com/china-issues-optimistic-forecast-for-new-energy-vehicle-sales-in-2017/", "http://www.hybridcars.com/china-takes-lead-as-number-one-in-plug-in-vehicle-sales/", "http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20161116/0905200985.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/china-s-electric-car-subsidy-fraud-casts-doubt-on-surging-demand", "http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20170224/1405205543.html", "http://www.caam.org.cn/hangye/20170206/1405204496.html", "http://www.autoblog.com/2016/12/29/china-far-ahead-of-us-europe-in-total-electric-vehicle-sales/", "http://www.caam.org.cn/hangye/20161229/1605203369.html", "https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/25/china-electric-car-sales-demolish-us-european-sales/", "http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/2016/12/china-november-2016.html", "http://evobsession.com/baic-takes-gold-bronze-october-china/", "http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/china/", "http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2018663/chinese-auto-group-slashes-new-energy-vehicle-forecast-wake", "https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/22/china-electric-cars-sales-record-43441-november/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autoshow-china-electric-idUSKBN14V1H3?il=0", "http://www.caam.org.cn/hangye/20170206/1005204431.html", "http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20170222/0905205351.html", "http://www.caam.org.cn/zhengceyanjiu/20161121/1005201237.html", "http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/auto/Newenergy-vehicle-sales-to-surge-over-50/shdaily.shtml", "http://www.hybridcars.com/chinese-analysts-concerned-electric-car-sales-need-more-than-subsidies-to-succeed/", "http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20161103/0905200308.html", "https://cleantechnica.com/2016/11/21/china-electric-car-sales-baic-shines/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-22

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/187

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/458

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

[["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-02", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.075], ["2018-04-03", 0.095], ["2018-04-03", 0.085], ["2018-04-03", 0.14], ["2018-04-03", 0.13], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.01], ["2018-04-04", 0.025], ["2018-04-04", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.0], ["2018-04-05", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.0], ["2018-04-06", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.0], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-13", 0.01], ["2018-04-14", 0.015], ["2018-04-15", 0.005], ["2018-04-16", 0.005], ["2018-04-16", 0.005], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-20", 0.015], ["2018-04-25", 0.015], ["2018-04-25", 0.015], ["2018-04-29", 0.015], ["2018-05-01", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-09", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.005], ["2018-05-16", 0.005], ["2018-05-17", 0.015], ["2018-05-17", 0.015], ["2018-05-22", 0.015], ["2018-05-22", 0.02], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-23", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-26", 0.015], ["2018-05-26", 0.015], ["2018-05-28", 0.015], ["2018-05-29", 0.005], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-03", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-13", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-15", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.015], ["2018-06-17", 0.015], ["2018-06-18", 0.005], ["2018-06-20", 0.005], ["2018-06-22", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-07-01", 0.03]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/910

True

2017-09-11

Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning the Democratic People's Republic of Korea between 7 September 2017 and 4 October 2017?

binary

The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml" target="_blank">UN Security Council adopted</a> a DPRK resolution. This question closed as "a) yes" with and end date of 11 September 2017. This question will resolve as "yes" if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopts a resolution during the period of interest in which the country/region of interest appears in the short description in the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml" target="_blank">Security Council Resolution table</a> and/or is mentioned within the adopted resolution itself.

2017-09-15

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-06

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/585

True

2016-05-08

Will "Captain America: Civil War" gross more in its opening weekend in the US than "Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice" did?

binary

"Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice", produced by rival D.C. Comics, grossed $166,007,347 in its opening weekend (<a href="http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=superman2015.htm" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>). "Captain America: Civil War", the next installment from Marvel Studios, opens in the United States on Friday 6 May. Question will be resolved using data from <a href="http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/" target="_blank">Box Office Mojo</a>. Recommended Questions <a href="https://gjopen.com/questions/56" target="_blank">Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?</a>

2016-05-09

gjopen

["http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-opening-box-office-results-international-1201725677/", "http://www.zueritipp.ch/kino/kino/krawumm-/story/11259154/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-jungle-book-huntsman-batman-superman-international-box-office-weekend-results-1201747374/", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4182&amp;p=.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=similar&amp;id=marvel2016.htm", "http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-box-office-opening-international-results-1201745767/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/219439", "http://www.fandango.com/movie-news/captain-america-civil-war-is-outselling-all-previous-marvel-movies-plus-fandangos-most-anticipated-summer-movies-750765", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=avengers2.htm", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/", "http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/", "http://m.screendaily.com/5103203.article", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/01/gitrep-1may16am/", "http://screenrant.com/captain-america-civil-war-opening-weekend/", "http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/682177-captain-america-civil-war-international-box-office-up-to-84-million#/slide/1", "http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/captain-america-winter-soldier-tracking-688364", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "http://deadline.com/2015/04/international-box-office-avengers-age-of-ultron-furious-7-paul-blart-home-1201416588/", "http://www.latino-review.com/news/captain-america-civil-war-breaks-new-fandango-record-as-top-pre-seller-among-superhero-movies", "http://www.indiewire.com/article/captain-america-civil-war-review-marvel-chris-evans", "http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-records-1201744563/", "http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3498820/releaseinfo?mode=desktop", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/03/gitrep-2may16pm/", "https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0jzt8tx%2C%20%2Fm%2F0wrshm2%2C%20%2Fm%2F0cc846d%2C%20%2Fm%2F0125zrjx%2C%20%2Fm%2F0n15g8q&amp;geo=US&amp;cmpt=q&amp;tz=Etc%2FGMT-2"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-12

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/176

True

2016-12-31

Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?

binary

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> At a meeting in December 2015, NATO foreign ministers formally invited Montenegro to start accession talks that are supposed to culminate in Montenegro joining the alliance (<a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125370.htm?selectedLocale=en" target = "_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34981973" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/11/29/another-russian-friend-readies-for-nato-but-corporate-scandals-may-prove-costly/" target = "_blank">Forbes</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-russia-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77-before-1-august-2016-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-isis" target = "_blank">Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-montenegro-election-idUSKCN12P2HY?il=0", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/01/spains-socialist-leader-pedro-sanchez-steps-down-to-clear-way-fo/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/world/europe/finger-pointed-at-russians-in-alleged-coup-plot-in-montenegro.html?emc=edit_th_20161127&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nlid=77825025", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/nato-russia-tension-looms-montenegro-vote-161016075223379.html", "https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/photo/_tramp_i_putin_vstali_plechom_k_plechu_v_chernogorii.shtml#!photo=2&amp;full", "https://sputniknews.com/politics/201610171046397341-montenegro-nato-elections/", "http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2016/11/03/1564620.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nato-montenegro-membership-certain-despite-russia-objection/2016/11/03/7e9d1dd4-a1bd-11e6-8864-6f892cad0865_story.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJRaUY3XU88", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/06/montenegro-prosecutor-milivoje-katnic-russian-nationalists-behind-alleged-coup-plot", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/324584", "https://www.bundesrat.de/SharedDocs/drucksachen/2016/0401-0500/497-16(B).pdf?__blob=publicationFile&amp;v=1", "http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/10/16/montenegro-elections-beyond-nato-russia-dichotomy/", "https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/kst-34524-4.html", "https://www.neweurope.eu/article/montenegro-heads-polls-nato-membership-stake/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/320746", "https://www.bundesrat.de/SharedDocs/TO/949/tagesordnung-949.html;jsessionid=0E52FD74E4A5689E9E63DE99FE1EC312.2_cid349?cms_topNr=29#top-29", "https://de.sputniknews.com/zeitungen/20161003/312792019/montenegro-nato-wahlkampagne.html", "https://intelnews.org/2016/07/29/01-1949/", "http://www.dtt-net.com/en/index.php?page=view-article&amp;article=10251", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Montenegro_to_NATO", "http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/105247/20161105/china-long-march-5.htm", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/03/nato-montenegro-membership-certain-despite-russia-objection.html", "http://www.rferl.org/a/montenegrin-leader-djukanovic-suggests-russia-behind-alleged-coup-plot-serbia/28075458.html", "http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2016/11/03/1564435.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-12-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/98

True

2016-07-12

In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China's "nine-dash line" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?

binary

This question was closed with the answer "yes" on 12 July 2016. The Hague released a summary of their findings, stating that "there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the 'nine-dash line'" (<a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2990864/Press-Release-on-South-China-Sea-Decision.pdf" target="_blank">Press Release</a>). For additional coverage of the issue see: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-36771749" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-hague-ruling-philippines.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/12/asia/china-philippines-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">CNN</a>. In 2013, the Philippines started an international legal process aimed at invalidating some of China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, including its "nine-dash line" claim (<a href="http://amti.csis.org/a-case-of-rocks-islands/" target="_blank">Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative</a>, <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-philippines-vs-china-the-south-china-sea-legal-showdown-12116" target="_blank">The National Interest</a>). The Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague determined in 2015 that it has jurisdiction over the issue, and it is expected to issue rulings on the case in June 2016 (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/philippines-v-china-court-rules-favorably-on-jurisdiction-case-will-proceed/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href="http://www.pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/1524" target="_blank">The Hague</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/34-will-china-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-october-2016" target="_blank">Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-in-the-south-or-east-china-sea-region-involving-china-s-and-another-country-s-national-military-forces-or-law-enforcement-personnel-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?</a>

2016-07-12

gjopen

["https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2990864/Press-Release-on-South-China-Sea-Decision.pdf", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/11/world/asia/south-china-sea-philippines-hague.html?_r=0", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/philippines-v-china-decision-to-be-released-on-july-12-2016/", "http://globalnation.inquirer.net/140947/key-points-arbitral-tribunal-decision-verdict-award-philippines-china-maritime-dispute-unclos-arbitration-spratly-islands-scarborough?utm_content=buffer00064&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer", "http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/790490/readout-of-secretary-carters-meeting-with-indonesian-minister-of-defense-ryamiz?source=GovDelivery", "http://qz.com/705223/where-exactly-did-chinas-nine-dash-line-in-the-south-china-sea-come-from/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/242193", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/beijing-remains-angry-defiant-and-defensive-as-key-south-china-sea-tribunal-ruling-looms/2016/07/12/11100f48-4771-11e6-8dac-0c6e4accc5b1_story.html", "http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Press-Release-No-11-English.pdf", "https://pca-cpa.org/en/news/pca-press-release-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-the-republic-of-the-philippines-v-the-peoples-republic-of-china/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36771749", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/266335", "http://www.andrewerickson.com/2016/07/pca-press-release-pca-case-no-2013-19-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-the-republic-of-the-philippines-v-the-peoples-republic-of-china/", "http://en.yibada.com/articles/132352/20160616/u-n-permanent-court-of-arbitration-to-release-decision-on-philippines-vs-china-claim-on-scarborough-shoal-on-july-7.htm", "http://app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/1987129/home", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-court-idUSKCN0ZG05S", "https://apple.news/A5WznCDEiNOKFFXceVSsz7A", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&amp;utm_content=bufferd82b0&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/a-legal-analysis-of-the-philippine-china-arbitration-ruling/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZK06E", "https://pca-cpa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/175/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Award.pdf", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-12/china-no-legal-basis-south-china-sea-tribunal-finds/7622738", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/266381", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/after-the-south-china-sea-ruling/", "https://pca-cpa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/175/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Press-Release-No-11-English.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-22

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/166

True

2017-10-01

Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Honduras (HND) that starts between 1 September 2017 and 30 September 2017?

binary

The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href = "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html"target="_blank">PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which begins with January 2016. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2017-10-18

gjopen

["http://www.elclarin.cl/web/noticias/medios-y-periodismo/43-medios/23492-honduras-asesinado-por-sicarios-periodista-critico.html", "https://www.ifex.org/honduras/2017/09/19/carlos-william-flores-killed/", "https://knightcenter.utexas.edu/blog/00-18807-honduran-journalist-critical-irregularities-his-town-killed-hitmen"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-23

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/567

True

2019-06-30

Before 1 July 2019, will Daniel Ortega cease to be president of Nicaragua?

binary

Protests in response to government pension reforms have expanded to focus on Ortega, including calls for him to step down (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/04/27/the-unlikely-origins-of-nicaraguas-epic-wave-of-protest/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nicaragua-protests-usa/nicaraguas-ortega-rejects-early-elections-u-s-rebukes-crackdown-idUSKBN1KK1OW" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/oas-rights-group-counts-317-dead-nicaragua-unrest-56995069" target="_blank">ABC News</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2019-07-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-08-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/994

True

2017-01-31

Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?

binary

This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 January 2016. In October of 2016, it restructured some of its debt (<A HREF = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-24/venezuela-wins-relief-from-bondholders-as-39-accept-pdvsa-swap"target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-pdvsa-restructures-debt-1477333172"target = "_blank">WSJ</a>) and in November2016, PVDSA missed a payment but was granted a 30 day grace period to meet its obligations (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-pdvsa-misses-404-million-payments-on-bonds-1479768989"target = "_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/threats-delays-and-conspiracies-dog-holders-of-venezuelan-bonds"target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>). It made a late payment later that month, avoiding default (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/11/30/venezuelas-pdvsa-missed-a-payment-so-what/#4815334a7936"target = "_blank">Forbes</a> , <a href = "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/11/30/venezuela-as-pdvsa-makes-late-payment-2017-bond-risk-rises/"target = "_blank">Barron's</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> After years of recession and falling oil prices, Venezuela is at risk of defaulting (<a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/venezuela-s-descent-into-world-s-riskiest-sovereign-credit-q-a" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-debt-idUSL2N1631PV" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). Examples of past defaults include Argentina in 2014 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28578179" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21610263-cristina-fern-ndez-argues-her-countrys-latest-default-different-she-missing" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>) and Ivory Coast in 2011 (<a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-02-01/ivory-coast-bondholder-calls-default-on-2-3-billion-of-debt-by-gbagbo" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.africancapitalmarketsnews.com/889/cote-divoire-defaults-on-2-3bn-eurobonds/" target = "_blank">African Capital Markets News</a>). Clarification added 4/25/2016: Restructuring of debt will not count as a default. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/89-how-will-iran-rank-in-the-world-economic-forum-s-2016-2017-global-competitiveness-index" target = "_blank">How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153-will-keiko-fujimori-win-peru-s-upcoming-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/155-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-dollar-against-the-renminbi-on-30-september-2016" target = "_blank">What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?</a>

2017-02-02

gjopen

["http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/07/21/venezuela-might-be-worse-country-in-latin-america-but-its-bonds-look-great/#4f297ae294ef", "https://qz.com/894841/the-most-tweetable-trial-in-us-history-happened-300-years-ago-and-its-just-as-relevant-today/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-shell-idUSKBN13V1TY", "https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.girish.venezuelaecon", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-pdvsa-misses-404-million-payments-on-bonds-1479768989", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/11/30/venezuela-as-pdvsa-makes-late-payment-2017-bond-risk-rises/", "http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/01/07/444830/Venezuela-Maduro-cabinet-reshuffle-Luis-Salas", "http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Venezuelas-Oil-Industry-To-Receive-Another-Shot-In-The-Arm-From-China.html", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/09/22/venezuela-is-debt-swap-event-default-citgo-knows/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/venezuelan-credit-dashboard-default-risk-rises-even-with-swap", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-11/venezuela-has-good-reasons-to-avoid-default", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/375933", "http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/market-strategy-sovereign-default-likely-2017-14-nov-2016", "http://www.barrons.com/quote/stock/HYEM", "https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AEMB", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/11/21/venezuelas-pdvsa-inching-closer-to-debt-default/", "https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/venezuela-econ/id1112743973?mt=8", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/venezuelan-credit-dashboard-can-default-be-avoided-in-2017", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-pdvsa-restructures-debt-1477333172", "http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/venezuela-liquidity-crisis/", "http://qz.com/866593/venezuela-is-too-poor-to-import-food-and-medicine-so-why-is-the-government-still-paying-off-its-debt/", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/29/investing/venezuela-worthless-currency/", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/11/30/venezuelas-pdvsa-missed-a-payment-so-what/#7d906a8f7936", "https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2016/11/21/schrodingers-coupon-payment/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/pdvsa-debt-idUSL1N1DM1OK"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162

True

2017-03-31

Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016?

binary

Read about Superforecasting for the farm at <i><a href="http://www.agriculture.com/news/technology/superforecasting-for-the-farm" target="_blank">Successful Farming</a></i>. Falling commodity prices have prompted a decline in the value of agricultural land (<a href="http://www.agriculture.com/content/what-you-need-to-know-about-farmland-values" target="_blank">Agriculture.com</a>, <a href="http://www.croplife.com/management/report-u-s-farmland-values-on-average-continue-gradual-decline/" target="_blank">CropLife</a>). The Seventh Federal Reserve District, which includes all of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin (<a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/utilities/about-us/seventh-district-economy" target="_blank">Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago</a>), saw farmland values decline by 4% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. This question will be resolved by data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (<a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/index" target="_blank">Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago</a>). Changes in land values are reported in the quarterly newsletter and recorded in their historical data as "Seventh District Land Values." Question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and closed when the data for the first quarter of 2017 are released, typically in May. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162" target="_blank">Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?</a> This question was closed as "no" with end date of 31 March 2017 (<a href = "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/2015-2019/may-2017"target="_blank">Chicago Fed</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-05-17

gjopen

["http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/news/regional/fed-conference-highlights-downturn-decisions/article_1a389962-eeda-11e6-ab20-8f405756ad9a.html", "https://www.extension.iastate.edu/AGDM/wholefarm/html/c2-70.html", "http://www.behavioraleconomics.com/BEGuide2016.pdf", "http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/news/regional/farmers-lenders-keep-focus-on-managing-costs/article_0376fdda-f94e-11e6-80fe-87c4b330c9c3.html", "https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/natural-resources-environment/organic-agriculture.aspx", "http://foundersfund.com/search/universal%20basic%20income", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/431815", "https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/agletter/2015-2019/february-2017-pdf.pdf", "https://durangoherald.com/articles/114965-more-farmers-are-having-trouble-making-loan-payments?wallit_nosession=1", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6337m_1x8so", "http://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2017/02/fed-reports-show-declining-farmland-values-tighter-credit-conditions/", "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/2015-2019/november-2016", "http://in.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-dollar-idINKBN15111E", "http://www.southeastfarmpress.com/corn/what-history-can-teach-us-about-today-s-farm-recession", "http://ict.usc.edu/pubs/Emotional%20Signaling%20in%20a%20Social%20Dilemma-an%20Automatic%20Analysis.pdf", "http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/gsChart.pdf", "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/index", "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf", "https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/producer-sentiment-backs-off-january-peak/", "https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Organic_Production/Organic_Certifiers/2016/USDA_Accredited_Certifying_Agent_Certified_Organic_Data_2014_2015.pdf", "http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/wfm/earnings-growth", "http://www.thefencepost.com/news/federal-reserve-banks-farmland-values-down/", "http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2017/01/17/trump-dollar-is-too-strong-and-its-killing-us/", "http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/", "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/publication-listing?filter_series=1"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-10-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/307

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Central African Republic from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/dec/18/the-future-is-very-dark-central-african-republics-relentless-cycle-of-suffering", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13150040"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

[["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.6], ["2017-12-29", 0.575], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.06], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.45], ["2017-12-29", 0.45], ["2017-12-30", 0.06], ["2017-12-30", 0.23], ["2017-12-31", 0.23], ["2017-12-31", 0.055], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.245], ["2017-12-31", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.34], ["2018-01-01", 0.34], ["2018-01-01", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.345], ["2018-01-01", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.14], ["2018-01-01", 0.1], ["2018-01-01", 0.08], ["2018-01-02", 0.09], ["2018-01-02", 0.065], ["2018-01-02", 0.065], ["2018-01-02", 0.065], ["2018-01-02", 0.08], ["2018-01-02", 0.08], ["2018-01-02", 0.065], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.075], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.06], ["2018-01-03", 0.06], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-04", 0.1], ["2018-01-04", 0.07], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-04", 0.085], ["2018-01-05", 0.085], ["2018-01-05", 0.08], ["2018-01-05", 0.08], ["2018-01-05", 0.08], ["2018-01-05", 0.08], ["2018-01-06", 0.08], ["2018-01-06", 0.09], ["2018-01-06", 0.09], ["2018-01-06", 0.095], ["2018-01-06", 0.1], ["2018-01-06", 0.1], ["2018-01-06", 0.1], ["2018-01-06", 0.1], ["2018-01-06", 0.105], ["2018-01-07", 0.105], ["2018-01-07", 0.105], ["2018-01-07", 0.11], ["2018-01-07", 0.11], ["2018-01-07", 0.11], ["2018-01-08", 0.11], ["2018-01-08", 0.105], ["2018-01-08", 0.105], ["2018-01-09", 0.105], ["2018-01-09", 0.105], ["2018-01-09", 0.105], ["2018-01-10", 0.105], ["2018-01-11", 0.11], ["2018-01-11", 0.11], ["2018-01-12", 0.11], ["2018-01-12", 0.11], ["2018-01-12", 0.105], ["2018-01-13", 0.105], ["2018-01-13", 0.1], ["2018-01-13", 0.1], ["2018-01-14", 0.105], ["2018-01-14", 0.1], ["2018-01-14", 0.1], ["2018-01-14", 0.1], ["2018-01-15", 0.1], ["2018-01-15", 0.095], ["2018-01-15", 0.095], ["2018-01-16", 0.095], ["2018-01-16", 0.095], ["2018-01-17", 0.085], ["2018-01-17", 0.085], ["2018-01-18", 0.085], ["2018-01-18", 0.085], ["2018-01-19", 0.075], ["2018-01-19", 0.075], ["2018-01-19", 0.075], ["2018-01-20", 0.075], ["2018-01-20", 0.075], ["2018-01-21", 0.075], ["2018-01-22", 0.075], ["2018-01-22", 0.075], ["2018-01-23", 0.08], ["2018-01-23", 0.08], ["2018-01-24", 0.08], ["2018-01-24", 0.08], ["2018-01-25", 0.08], ["2018-01-26", 0.07], ["2018-01-26", 0.07], ["2018-01-27", 0.075], ["2018-01-27", 0.085], ["2018-01-28", 0.085], ["2018-01-28", 0.095], ["2018-01-28", 0.1], ["2018-01-28", 0.1], ["2018-01-29", 0.1], ["2018-01-30", 0.1], ["2018-01-30", 0.1], ["2018-01-30", 0.1], ["2018-01-31", 0.09], ["2018-01-31", 0.09], ["2018-01-31", 0.08], ["2018-02-01", 0.08], ["2018-02-02", 0.08], ["2018-02-02", 0.08], ["2018-02-03", 0.08], ["2018-02-03", 0.07], ["2018-02-03", 0.07], ["2018-02-03", 0.07], ["2018-02-03", 0.07], ["2018-02-03", 0.065], ["2018-02-04", 0.065], ["2018-02-04", 0.065], ["2018-02-05", 0.055], ["2018-02-05", 0.055], ["2018-02-06", 0.055], ["2018-02-07", 0.05], ["2018-02-07", 0.04], ["2018-02-07", 0.04], ["2018-02-08", 0.04], ["2018-02-08", 0.04], ["2018-02-09", 0.04], ["2018-02-10", 0.045], ["2018-02-10", 0.045], ["2018-02-11", 0.045], ["2018-02-11", 0.045], ["2018-02-11", 0.045], ["2018-02-12", 0.045], ["2018-02-12", 0.045], ["2018-02-13", 0.045], ["2018-02-13", 0.045], ["2018-02-14", 0.045], ["2018-02-15", 0.055], ["2018-02-15", 0.055], ["2018-02-16", 0.045], ["2018-02-16", 0.045], ["2018-02-16", 0.045], ["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-18", 0.05], ["2018-02-19", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-21", 0.05], ["2018-02-23", 0.05], ["2018-02-23", 0.05], ["2018-02-24", 0.06], ["2018-02-24", 0.06], ["2018-02-24", 0.06], ["2018-02-24", 0.055], ["2018-02-25", 0.055], ["2018-02-25", 0.055], ["2018-02-25", 0.055], ["2018-02-25", 0.05], ["2018-02-26", 0.05], ["2018-02-27", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.05], ["2018-03-03", 0.055], ["2018-03-03", 0.075], ["2018-03-03", 0.075], ["2018-03-03", 0.075], ["2018-03-03", 0.075], ["2018-03-03", 0.075], ["2018-03-04", 0.075], ["2018-03-05", 0.08], ["2018-03-05", 0.08], ["2018-03-06", 0.07], ["2018-03-06", 0.07], ["2018-03-07", 0.06], ["2018-03-07", 0.06], ["2018-03-07", 0.06], ["2018-03-09", 0.06], ["2018-03-09", 0.06], ["2018-03-10", 0.06], ["2018-03-10", 0.06], ["2018-03-11", 0.06], ["2018-03-12", 0.06], ["2018-03-12", 0.06], ["2018-03-13", 0.06], ["2018-03-14", 0.06], ["2018-03-14", 0.06], ["2018-03-14", 0.09], ["2018-03-14", 0.09], ["2018-03-15", 0.09], ["2018-03-16", 0.09], ["2018-03-17", 0.09], ["2018-03-18", 0.075], ["2018-03-18", 0.055], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-21", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.055], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/837

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

[["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-27", 0.85], ["2018-06-27", 0.63], ["2018-06-27", 0.28], ["2018-06-27", 0.115], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.02], ["2018-07-06", 0.02], ["2018-07-09", 0.02], ["2018-07-12", 0.03], ["2018-07-15", 0.03], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.04], ["2018-07-17", 0.18], ["2018-07-17", 0.18], ["2018-07-18", 0.2], ["2018-07-19", 0.205], ["2018-07-21", 0.08], ["2018-07-23", 0.08], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-27", 0.09], ["2018-07-29", 0.09], ["2018-07-30", 0.09], ["2018-07-30", 0.085], ["2018-08-01", 0.08], ["2018-08-02", 0.08], ["2018-08-02", 0.09], ["2018-08-05", 0.09], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-12", 0.08], ["2018-08-13", 0.08], ["2018-08-14", 0.065], ["2018-08-16", 0.065], ["2018-08-18", 0.065], ["2018-08-18", 0.065], ["2018-08-21", 0.065], ["2018-08-22", 0.06], ["2018-08-22", 0.06], ["2018-08-23", 0.07], ["2018-08-23", 0.05], ["2018-08-27", 0.05], ["2018-08-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-02", 0.05], ["2018-09-03", 0.05], ["2018-09-03", 0.04], ["2018-09-06", 0.04], ["2018-09-11", 0.04], ["2018-09-13", 0.035], ["2018-09-13", 0.025], ["2018-09-18", 0.025], ["2018-09-20", 0.025], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-22", 0.035], ["2018-09-22", 0.04], ["2018-09-24", 0.04], ["2018-09-26", 0.04], ["2018-09-26", 0.04], ["2018-09-28", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.035], ["2018-10-01", 0.035]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/979

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

[["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.04], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.03], ["2018-10-03", 0.03], ["2018-10-04", 0.01], ["2018-10-05", 0.005], ["2018-10-06", 0.005], ["2018-10-06", 0.01], ["2018-10-07", 0.005], ["2018-10-09", 0.005], ["2018-10-12", 0.005], ["2018-10-13", 0.02], ["2018-10-14", 0.01], ["2018-10-15", 0.01], ["2018-10-16", 0.01], ["2018-10-20", 0.01], ["2018-10-24", 0.01], ["2018-10-27", 0.01], ["2018-10-28", 0.01], ["2018-10-30", 0.01], ["2018-10-30", 0.01], ["2018-11-06", 0.01], ["2018-11-06", 0.005], ["2018-11-08", 0.005], ["2018-11-08", 0.005], ["2018-11-09", 0.005], ["2018-11-10", 0.005], ["2018-11-10", 0.005], ["2018-11-12", 0.005], ["2018-11-15", 0.005], ["2018-11-16", 0.01], ["2018-11-16", 0.01], ["2018-11-19", 0.01], ["2018-11-20", 0.01], ["2018-11-22", 0.01], ["2018-11-23", 0.01], ["2018-11-25", 0.01], ["2018-11-28", 0.01], ["2018-11-28", 0.01], ["2018-11-30", 0.01], ["2018-12-02", 0.015], ["2018-12-08", 0.02], ["2018-12-09", 0.02], ["2018-12-09", 0.015], ["2018-12-13", 0.06], ["2018-12-13", 0.06], ["2018-12-14", 0.06], ["2018-12-16", 0.02], ["2018-12-19", 0.02], ["2018-12-20", 0.02], ["2018-12-21", 0.02], ["2018-12-22", 0.02], ["2018-12-24", 0.02], ["2018-12-25", 0.02], ["2018-12-27", 0.02], ["2018-12-28", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2019-01-01", 0.02]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1020

True

2018-07-01

Before 1 July 2018, will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan?

binary

The stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-afghanistan-protest-20170703-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/taliban-in-afghanistan"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href = "https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/a-house-divided-how-afghanistans-national-unity-government-is-crumbling/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). In the event that Ghani reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Ghani returns in the interim, the question will remain open. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Ashraf Ghani remains the president of Afghanistan. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-02

gjopen

["http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/ashraf-ghani-philosopher-king-ethnonationalist-180201144845423.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/631465", "https://globalvoices.org/2018/02/05/in-afghanistan-governors-dont-just-step-down-because-you-ask-them-to/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/15/world/asia/afghanistan-atta-muhammad-noor-president.html", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-02-18/second-afghan-governor-defies-president-ghani", "https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2018/02/02/afghan-president-says-pakistan-was-behind-deadly-attacks/ZPXwhyUoIF1jsgRGoTAVfN/story.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-governor-atta-noor/stand-off-over-powerful-afghan-governor-foreshadows-bitter-election-fight-idUSKBN1EW07N", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/defiant-governor-in-northern-afghanistan-tests-president-ashraf-ghani-1516050446", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-governor/pence-urges-peaceful-end-to-standoff-over-afghan-governor-idUSKBN1F61AE", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghans-fearing-more-insurgent-violence-feel-abandoned-by-struggling-government/2018/02/09/29196310-0b50-11e8-998c-96deb18cca19_story.html?utm_term=.b48f8d228950", "http://www.pulse.ng/news/world/future-president-afghan-strongman-mulls-bid-for-highest-office-id7941214.html", "http://www.news18.com/news/world/afghanistan-will-collapse-within-six-months-without-us-support-and-money-president-ashraf-ghani-1635539.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghanistan-kabul-ashraf-ghani-atta-mohammad-noor-isis-us-air-strikes-asia-latest-a8146726.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/674342", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/18/afghan-provincial-governor-defies-ghanis-order-to-step-down", "https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/election-commission%C2%A0asked-%C2%A0accelerate-reforms-process", "https://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/noor-warns-mass-protests-talks-hit-impasse", "https://unama.unmissions.org/civil-society-northeast-dialogue-local-authorities-upcoming-elections", "https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/jan/09/how-the-heroin-trade-explains-the-us-uk-failure-in-afghanistan", "https://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/abdullah-calls-delay-e-nic-issuance", "http://www.firstpost.com/world/kabul-military-base-attack-president-ashraf-ghani-says-seven-afghan-army-officers-including-two-generals-sacked-4338313.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-election/afghanistan-parliament-elections-likely-delayed-until-october-idUSKBN1FO0BZ?il=0", "https://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/ghani%C2%A0will-lead%C2%A0country-crisis%C2%A0%C2%A0e-nic%C2%A0decision-noor", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12024253", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-election/afghanistan-parliament-elections-likely-delayed-until-october-idUSKBN1FO0BZ"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/704

True

2017-03-31

Before 1 April 2017, will any NATO member other than Turkey announce the establishment of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria?

binary

In August 2016, Turkey launched a significant military offensive in Syria (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-24/turkey-coalition-begin-strike-against-islamic-state-in-jarablus" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>), and Turkish president Erdogan has reportedly asked NATO to support the operation by helping establish a no-fly zone over the territory this offensive aimed to capture (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-rebel-idUSKCN11C1FJ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23141a24-743d-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302" target="_blank">Before 1 July 2017, will the US endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/271" target="_blank">When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/278" target="_blank">How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?</a> <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 March 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.

2017-04-03

gjopen

["https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends/letter-nic-chairman", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-arms-idUSKBN14G12Y", "https://www.ft.com/content/e5625674-0ee6-11e7-b030-768954394623", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3956384/Turkey-calls-US-allies-reconsider-Syria-no-fly-zone.html#ixzz4QfYtyygs", "http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-warplanes-strike-targets-in-syria/773658", "http://www.limacharlienews.com/mena/syria-russian-airforce-pounds-daraa/", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-syria-safe-zones_us_5889175ae4b0024605fd95fb", "https://www.salon.com/2017/01/18/congresswoman-gabbard-makes-unannounced-trip-to-syria/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/offensive-targets-rebels-aleppo-outskirts-161224140539925.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKBN14D0JA", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/isis-is-on-the-offensive-and-may-have-just-picked-up-a-surface-to-air-missile-system/ar-AAlwfcD?ocid=HPCDHP", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-raqqa-idUSKBN15J0CZ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-safezones-idUSKBN15B0E5", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-war-latest-russia-sends-12-more-warplanes-to-syria-despite-announcing-military-withdrawal-a7524351.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-syria-safezones-idUSKBN1592O8?il=0", "http://tass.com/defense/931297", "http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/08/us/politics/russia-turkey-syria-airstrikes-isis.html?_r=0", "https://www.dni.gov/index.php", "https://www.ihs.com/Info/0916/janes-defense-conflict-atlas.html", "https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-release/engel-royce-syria-sanctions-bill-passes-house/", "http://reason.com/blog/2016/12/19/trump-calls-for-safe-zones-in-syria", "https://www.ihs.com/industry/aerospace-defense-security.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/errant-russian-strike-kills-turkish-soldiers-in-syria-1486666027", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-turkey-idUSKBN15N02J", "http://www.businessinsider.com/r-kazakhstans-nazarbayev-says-ready-to-host-syria-peace-talks-in-astana-2016-12"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-11-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/309

True

2018-06-22

In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals?

binary

In 2016, the US Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces dismissed (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-961-op-below-CAAF.pdf"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>) Nicole DalmazziÍs objections to Judge Martin Mitchell serving as an appellate military judge on the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals (AFCCA) while also serving as a military judge on the United States Court of Military Commission Review (USCMCR). Dalmazzi claimed that Judge MitchellÍs appointment to the USCMCR disqualified him to serve as an appellate judge on the AFCCA due to the statutory ban on dual-officeholding by civil servants (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/dalmazzi-v-united-states/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/argument-preview-justices-consider-role-military-judges-dual-officeholding-ban/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>). Dalmazzi also claims that simultaneous service on both the AFCCA and the USCMCR violates the Appointments Clause of the US constitution. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 22 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-961_jiel.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-06-25

gjopen

["http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/675715", "https://ballotpedia.org/Cox_v._United_States", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-961", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/argument-analysis-justices-debate-dual-officeholding-ban-jurisdiction-military-courts/", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/unconventional-test-case-civilian-control-military"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-01-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/877

True

2020-01-01

Will Ruth Bader Ginsburg cease to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before 1 January 2020?

binary

Ruth Bader Ginsburg was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1993, and has expressed her intent to remain on the Court through at least 2020 (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/08/politics/ruth-bader-ginsburg-2020/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2019-01-04

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1087

True

2015-12-31

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?

binary

RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners. (http://www.fta.gov.sg/press_release%5CFACTSHEET%20ON%20RCEP_final.pdf ). The completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership has increased pressure to finalize the deal (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/tpp-deal-pressures-rcep-trade-talks-in-busan-china-keen-for-progress.html ). Resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required.

2016-01-04

gjopen

["http://www.asean.org/storage/2015/12/RCEP-Leaders-Joint-Statement_22-Nov-2015_FINAL.pdf", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Talks-stall-on-China-backed-Asia-Pacific-pact-no-deal-in-2015", "http://www.todayonline.com/world/comparing-rcep-tpp?page=1", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2015/10/30/0200000000AEN20151030005500320.html", "http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015/11/23/Time-extended-for-RCEP-talks-One-more-year-needed-to-resolve-technical-issues-says-Mustapa/", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Viewpoints/New-Year-s-resolutions-for-RCEP-negotiators", "http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1617533", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/rcep-set-to-miss-2015-deadline-talks-to-spill-over-to-next-year/articleshow/49499225.cms", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/47206", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership#Round_10:_October_2015_in_South_Korea", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/22/c_134842294.htm", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/china-to-work-with-others-to-finalise-16-nation-trade-pact-early-xi", "https://aric.adb.org/fta/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/62480", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-10/28/c_134757333.htm", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/rcep-negotiations-still/2283112.html", "http://www.tax-news.com/news/ASEAN_Reinforces_Commitment_to_RCEP____69829.html", "http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/rcep/pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/updated-super-picker/", "http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/rcep-talks-india-submits-first-round-of-offers-on-goods/article7896740.ece", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/chinas-white-paper-implications-for-southeast-asia/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/47206", "http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20151003_world_econ.pdf", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/5hNv64auvYDNYBQ31uGSoM/India-may-provide-most-favoured-status-to-RCEP-investors.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-10-27

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/66

True

2019-02-20

In Timbs v. Indiana, will the Supreme Court rule that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states?

binary

<p>In 2015, Tyson Timbs pleaded guilty to felony charges in an Indiana court, after which the State sought to make Timbs forfeit his vehicle (<a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2018/10/29/tyson-timbs-institute-justice-civil-asset-forfeiture-us-supreme-court-eighth-amendment/1646693002/" target="_blank">The Indianapolis Star</a>, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/17-1091" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/timbs-v-indiana/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). A trial court ruled such a forfeiture violated the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition against imposing excessive fines. The Indiana Supreme Court then reversed the ruling, stating that the U.S. Supreme Court had never “incorporated” the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment, and Timbs appealed (<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/incorporation_doctrine" target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. </p><sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp; The Court's ruling may be found here:&nbsp;</span><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" class="autolinked" data-behavior="truncate" href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-1091_5536.pdf" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(27, 106, 201); text-decoration-line: underline; font-family: Graphik, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, helvetica, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;; font-size: 14px;">https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-1091_5536.pdf</span></a><span style="color: rgb(40, 60, 70); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;; font-size: 14px;">.</span><br></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><br></p>

2019-02-21

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-11-09

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1038

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1019

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Philippines from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as 'Yes', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016", "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257526.htm", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/01/24/deadly-milestone-philippines-abusive-drug-war", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-drugs-idUSKCN1B80D5", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/02/philippines-president-duterte-drugs-war-death-squads", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/01/philippines-the-police-murderous-war-on-the-poor/", "http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/philippines-duterte-police/", "http://www.pnp.gov.ph/images/publications/AR2016.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/566081", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-drugs-idUSKCN1AW0ZL?il=0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/518

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-turkey/turkish-tanks-trained-on-northern-iraq-in-show-of-force-ahead-of-vote-idUSKCN1BU19S?il=0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/520

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21736167-peacekeepers-are-no-substitute-competent-government-why-un-forces-are", "https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ml.html", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=58520"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/834

True

2016-01-16

Will the IAEA verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?

binary

As part of the nuclear deal, Iran agreed to reduce its uranium stockpile to less than 300 kg of 3.67% enriched uranium (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/04/240170.htm , http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655 , https://medium.com/the-iran-deal/joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action-5cdd9b320fd ). The IAEA must verify compliance with this aspect of the deal prior to "Implementation Day." For more information on the timeline of the agreement see: https://news.riskadvisory.net/2015/16/iran-summary-of-nuclear-deal-timeline-and-sanctions-relief/ , http://csis.org/ppp/index.htm .

2016-01-23

gjopen

["http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/01/01/461610337/as-iran-moves-swiftly-on-nuclear-deal-sanctions-could-go-soon", "http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran/US-hails-Iran-shipment-of-low-enriched-uranium-stockpile-to-Russia-438767", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/iaea-finds-some-iranian-nuclear-weapons-activity-continued-after-2003-1449078659", "http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-nuclear-deal-iranian-compliance-coming-days-john-kerry/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN0U208420151219", "http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/create", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-germany-idUSKBN0UI10M20160104", "http://tass.ru/en/world/847336", "http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20151229-iran-ships-enriched-uranium-to-russia-as-part-of-nuclear-deal", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/iaea-report-on-irans-compliance-with-nuc-idUKL8N14Z40Z", "https://www.rt.com/news/326527-iran-ships-uranium-russia/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0UR1NH20160113", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35335078", "http://www.todayonline.com/mideast/iran-hands-over-stockpile-enriched-uranium-russia", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/iran-deal-update-11000-kilograms-of-enriched-uranium-leave-iran-for-russia/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-director-general%E2%80%99s-statement-iran", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/un-report-iran-deal-compliance-likely-saturday-sources-200039241.html", "http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/12/250876.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/52-will-the-iaea-verify-that-iran-s-uranium-stockpile-has-been-reduced-to-less-than-300-kg-of-low-enriched-uranium-before-1-june-2016#", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35302628", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/iran-ships-uranium-russia-nuclear-deal", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/vienna-iran-iaea-nuclear-deal/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/29/world/middleeast/iran-hands-over-stockpile-of-enriched-uranium-to-russia.html?emc=edit_au_20151228&amp;nl=afternoonupdate&amp;nlid=42208600&amp;_r=0", "http://nanonews.org/irans-uranium-stockpile-turned-over-to-russia-under-nuclear/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/29/world/middleeast/iran-hands-over-stockpile-of-enriched-uranium-to-russia.html?_r=0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-10-02

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/52

True

2017-12-29

Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Libya's Sharara oil field experience a production shutdown?

binary

Libya's Sharara oil field, the country's largest, has been beset by production shutdowns (<a href = "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/energy/2017/09/06/Production-restarting-at-Libya-s-Sharara-oilfield-after-blockade-lifted.html"target="_blank">Al Arabiya</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-oil/libyas-sharara-oilfield-reopens-after-two-day-shutdown-noc-idUSKCN1C91HX"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-27/libya-oil-output-gains-as-country-faces-calls-to-join-opec-cuts"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Libya's Sharara oil field did not experience a production shutdown between 29 November and 29 December 2017. This question closed as "no" with and end date of 30 December 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-04

gjopen

["https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/views/crude-oil-outlook-positive-but-prices-seen-capped-at-62/articleshow/61930524.cms", "https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL8N1MD1UY", "https://kaplanherald.com/2017/12/27/us-oil-settles-at-53-08-a-barrel-up-84-cents-after-libyas-largest-oilfield-shuts-down/", "https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Libyas-Sharara-Oil-Field-Closed-Again-230000-Bpd-Output-Offline.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/libya-is-said-to-keep-oil-output-stable-in-line-with-opec-deal", "https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1OQ13H", "https://twitter.com/HermsTheWord/status/942725486949687297"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/769

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/912

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

[["2018-12-28", 0.0], ["2018-12-28", 0.0], ["2018-12-29", 0.0], ["2018-12-29", 0.0], ["2018-12-30", 0.005], ["2018-12-31", 0.005], ["2018-12-31", 0.0], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-03", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-04", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.0], ["2019-01-06", 0.005], ["2019-01-06", 0.015], ["2019-01-06", 0.015], ["2019-01-06", 0.02], ["2019-01-07", 0.02], ["2019-01-07", 0.06], ["2019-01-07", 0.1], ["2019-01-07", 0.1], ["2019-01-09", 0.06], ["2019-01-13", 0.06], ["2019-01-15", 0.03], ["2019-01-16", 0.03], ["2019-01-18", 0.02], ["2019-01-20", 0.02], ["2019-01-22", 0.02], ["2019-01-26", 0.03], ["2019-01-30", 0.03], ["2019-01-31", 0.03], ["2019-02-01", 0.03], ["2019-02-03", 0.02], ["2019-02-05", 0.02], ["2019-02-08", 0.02], ["2019-02-08", 0.04], ["2019-02-11", 0.04], ["2019-02-12", 0.04], ["2019-02-16", 0.03], ["2019-02-16", 0.03], ["2019-02-20", 0.03], ["2019-02-21", 0.03], ["2019-02-22", 0.015], ["2019-02-22", 0.01], ["2019-02-24", 0.01], ["2019-02-24", 0.01], ["2019-02-26", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-02-28", 0.01], ["2019-03-01", 0.01], ["2019-03-01", 0.01], ["2019-03-04", 0.01], ["2019-03-05", 0.01], ["2019-03-07", 0.01], ["2019-03-07", 0.01], ["2019-03-09", 0.01], ["2019-03-09", 0.01], ["2019-03-10", 0.01], ["2019-03-11", 0.01], ["2019-03-11", 0.01], ["2019-03-11", 0.015], ["2019-03-12", 0.01], ["2019-03-13", 0.01], ["2019-03-14", 0.01], ["2019-03-19", 0.01], ["2019-03-22", 0.01], ["2019-03-22", 0.01], ["2019-03-23", 0.01], ["2019-03-25", 0.01], ["2019-03-27", 0.01], ["2019-03-29", 0.01], ["2019-03-29", 0.01], ["2019-03-30", 0.01], ["2019-03-31", 0.01]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1078

True

2019-06-20

In Gundy v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress' delegation of authority to the attorney general in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act (SORNA) violates the nondelegation doctrine?

binary

In 2016, Herman Gundy was convicted of violating SORNA for failing to register as a sex offender in New York (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/03/justices-grant-review-two-new-cases/" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). His underlying conviction requiring registration was in 2005, before the enactment of SORNA (<a href="https://smart.gov/sorna.htm" target="_blank">Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking</a>). On appeal, Gundy argues that the section of SORNA granting the attorney general the authority to "prescribe rules" that apply to him was an unconstitutional delegation of legislative power to the executive branch (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/gundy-v-united-states" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-6086_2b8e.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUS</a>).</p><br><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span>

2019-06-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-21

0.0

[["2018-09-21", 0.65], ["2018-09-22", 0.15], ["2018-09-22", 0.325], ["2018-09-22", 0.32], ["2018-09-22", 0.495], ["2018-09-23", 0.325], ["2018-09-23", 0.125], ["2018-09-23", 0.15], ["2018-09-23", 0.15], ["2018-09-24", 0.29], ["2018-09-24", 0.29], ["2018-09-24", 0.27], ["2018-09-24", 0.27], ["2018-09-24", 0.36], ["2018-09-25", 0.485], ["2018-09-26", 0.47], ["2018-09-27", 0.5], ["2018-09-28", 0.5], ["2018-09-28", 0.525], ["2018-09-29", 0.53], ["2018-10-01", 0.53], ["2018-10-01", 0.365], ["2018-10-02", 0.31], ["2018-10-03", 0.315], ["2018-10-03", 0.315], ["2018-10-03", 0.475], ["2018-10-04", 0.45], ["2018-10-07", 0.45], ["2018-10-07", 0.325], ["2018-10-08", 0.19], ["2018-10-08", 0.165], ["2018-10-08", 0.175], ["2018-10-09", 0.2], ["2018-10-09", 0.2], ["2018-10-09", 0.35], ["2018-10-10", 0.275], ["2018-10-12", 0.25], ["2018-10-12", 0.165], ["2018-10-14", 0.265], ["2018-10-14", 0.425], ["2018-10-14", 0.35], ["2018-10-16", 0.35], ["2018-10-16", 0.35], ["2018-10-16", 0.35], ["2018-10-17", 0.42], ["2018-10-20", 0.42], ["2018-10-22", 0.42], ["2018-10-24", 0.42], ["2018-10-28", 0.35], ["2018-10-28", 0.35], ["2018-10-30", 0.35], ["2018-10-30", 0.345], ["2018-11-06", 0.345], ["2018-11-06", 0.345], ["2018-11-09", 0.345], ["2018-11-10", 0.345], ["2018-11-13", 0.34], ["2018-11-13", 0.34], ["2018-11-13", 0.32], ["2018-11-13", 0.275], ["2018-11-14", 0.275], ["2018-11-15", 0.3], ["2018-11-15", 0.3], ["2018-11-15", 0.3], ["2018-11-16", 0.275], ["2018-11-17", 0.25], ["2018-11-17", 0.25], ["2018-11-17", 0.25], ["2018-11-19", 0.25], ["2018-11-20", 0.25], ["2018-11-25", 0.25], ["2018-11-25", 0.25], ["2018-11-26", 0.25], ["2018-11-27", 0.225], ["2018-11-27", 0.25], ["2018-11-28", 0.25], ["2018-12-05", 0.25], ["2018-12-07", 0.25], ["2018-12-08", 0.225], ["2018-12-08", 0.225], ["2018-12-10", 0.225], ["2018-12-13", 0.25], ["2018-12-13", 0.25], ["2018-12-15", 0.26], ["2018-12-16", 0.26], ["2018-12-16", 0.26], ["2018-12-18", 0.26], ["2018-12-19", 0.25], ["2018-12-19", 0.2], ["2018-12-20", 0.2], ["2018-12-24", 0.2], ["2019-01-04", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.225], ["2019-01-06", 0.225], ["2019-01-06", 0.25], ["2019-01-06", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.2], ["2019-01-06", 0.175], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-09", 0.15], ["2019-01-10", 0.15], ["2019-01-11", 0.15], ["2019-01-12", 0.15], ["2019-01-13", 0.15], ["2019-01-14", 0.15], ["2019-01-15", 0.125], ["2019-01-16", 0.125], ["2019-01-17", 0.15], ["2019-01-20", 0.15], ["2019-01-23", 0.15], ["2019-01-24", 0.15], ["2019-01-27", 0.15], ["2019-02-05", 0.15], ["2019-02-13", 0.15], ["2019-02-13", 0.15], ["2019-02-14", 0.15], ["2019-02-19", 0.15], ["2019-02-22", 0.15], ["2019-02-26", 0.15], ["2019-03-01", 0.15], ["2019-03-04", 0.15], ["2019-03-04", 0.15], ["2019-03-09", 0.125], ["2019-03-11", 0.15], ["2019-03-13", 0.15], ["2019-03-13", 0.15], ["2019-03-18", 0.15], ["2019-03-19", 0.15], ["2019-03-20", 0.15], ["2019-03-20", 0.125], ["2019-03-23", 0.125], ["2019-03-25", 0.125], ["2019-03-29", 0.125], ["2019-04-01", 0.125], ["2019-04-02", 0.125], ["2019-04-04", 0.125], ["2019-04-04", 0.12], ["2019-04-04", 0.12], ["2019-04-05", 0.12], ["2019-04-11", 0.135], ["2019-04-11", 0.135], ["2019-04-11", 0.12], ["2019-04-11", 0.12], ["2019-04-11", 0.12], ["2019-04-11", 0.12], ["2019-04-11", 0.12], ["2019-04-12", 0.11], ["2019-04-12", 0.11], ["2019-04-12", 0.12], ["2019-04-12", 0.12], ["2019-04-12", 0.12], ["2019-04-13", 0.12], ["2019-04-14", 0.135], ["2019-04-15", 0.12], ["2019-04-16", 0.12], ["2019-04-16", 0.12], ["2019-04-16", 0.12], ["2019-04-18", 0.12], ["2019-04-20", 0.12], ["2019-04-20", 0.12], ["2019-04-21", 0.11], ["2019-04-23", 0.1], ["2019-04-26", 0.1], ["2019-04-26", 0.1], ["2019-04-27", 0.1], ["2019-04-28", 0.1], ["2019-04-30", 0.1], ["2019-04-30", 0.1], ["2019-05-02", 0.1], ["2019-05-03", 0.1], ["2019-05-03", 0.1], ["2019-05-06", 0.1], ["2019-05-07", 0.1], ["2019-05-09", 0.1], ["2019-05-12", 0.1], ["2019-05-14", 0.09], ["2019-05-15", 0.09], ["2019-05-17", 0.08], ["2019-05-17", 0.08], ["2019-05-17", 0.065], ["2019-05-19", 0.08], ["2019-05-20", 0.08], ["2019-05-21", 0.09], ["2019-05-21", 0.09], ["2019-05-21", 0.09], ["2019-05-23", 0.09], ["2019-05-24", 0.09], ["2019-05-24", 0.09], ["2019-05-24", 0.09], ["2019-05-27", 0.09], ["2019-05-28", 0.09], ["2019-05-30", 0.1], ["2019-05-30", 0.1], ["2019-05-31", 0.1], ["2019-06-01", 0.1], ["2019-06-03", 0.1], ["2019-06-07", 0.1], ["2019-06-07", 0.1], ["2019-06-08", 0.1], ["2019-06-09", 0.1], ["2019-06-12", 0.1], ["2019-06-13", 0.1], ["2019-06-13", 0.1], ["2019-06-14", 0.1], ["2019-06-14", 0.1], ["2019-06-14", 0.1], ["2019-06-16", 0.1], ["2019-06-17", 0.09], ["2019-06-19", 0.09], ["2019-06-19", 0.09], ["2019-06-20", 0.09]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1006

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.01], ["2017-09-29", 0.505], ["2017-09-29", 0.505], ["2017-09-29", 0.08], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.035], ["2017-10-01", 0.035], ["2017-10-01", 0.035], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.15], ["2017-10-02", 0.35], ["2017-10-02", 0.35], ["2017-10-02", 0.35], ["2017-10-02", 0.35], ["2017-10-02", 0.35], ["2017-10-03", 0.3], ["2017-10-03", 0.285], ["2017-10-03", 0.015], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-04", 0.015], ["2017-10-04", 0.015], ["2017-10-05", 0.04], ["2017-10-05", 0.04], ["2017-10-05", 0.04], ["2017-10-06", 0.04], ["2017-10-06", 0.04], ["2017-10-07", 0.04], ["2017-10-08", 0.04], ["2017-10-08", 0.04], ["2017-10-08", 0.04], ["2017-10-08", 0.035], ["2017-10-09", 0.01], ["2017-10-09", 0.01], ["2017-10-10", 0.01], ["2017-10-11", 0.01], ["2017-10-12", 0.01], ["2017-10-13", 0.04], ["2017-10-13", 0.04], ["2017-10-13", 0.04], ["2017-10-13", 0.04], ["2017-10-13", 0.04], ["2017-10-14", 0.04], ["2017-10-14", 0.04], ["2017-10-14", 0.04], ["2017-10-15", 0.04], ["2017-10-15", 0.04], ["2017-10-16", 0.025], ["2017-10-16", 0.025], ["2017-10-17", 0.025], ["2017-10-17", 0.025], ["2017-10-18", 0.025], ["2017-10-18", 0.025], ["2017-10-19", 0.025], ["2017-10-19", 0.025], ["2017-10-20", 0.025], ["2017-10-20", 0.025], ["2017-10-21", 0.025], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-23", 0.01], ["2017-10-23", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-02", 0.01], ["2017-11-02", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-04", 0.01], ["2017-11-04", 0.01], ["2017-11-05", 0.01], ["2017-11-06", 0.01], ["2017-11-07", 0.01], ["2017-11-08", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-11", 0.01], ["2017-11-12", 0.01], ["2017-11-12", 0.01], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-22", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.005], ["2017-11-28", 0.005], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.015], ["2017-12-04", 0.015], ["2017-12-04", 0.015], ["2017-12-04", 0.015], ["2017-12-04", 0.015], ["2017-12-05", 0.015], ["2017-12-06", 0.015], ["2017-12-07", 0.015], ["2017-12-08", 0.015], ["2017-12-10", 0.015], ["2017-12-10", 0.015], ["2017-12-12", 0.015], ["2017-12-13", 0.015], ["2017-12-14", 0.015], ["2017-12-14", 0.015], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.015], ["2017-12-20", 0.015], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.005], ["2017-12-27", 0.005], ["2017-12-27", 0.005], ["2017-12-27", 0.005], ["2017-12-28", 0.005], ["2017-12-29", 0.005], ["2017-12-29", 0.005], ["2017-12-30", 0.005], ["2017-12-30", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/625

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/916

True

2016-04-30

Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?

binary

Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil at <a href = "http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.cfm" target = "_blank">US EIA Daily Prices</a>. For historical data, see <a href = "http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm" target = "_blank">history</a>.

2016-05-02

gjopen

["http://ngcsuthesaint.com/2016/03/oil-ouput-freeze-already-in-place-uae/", "http://www.commoditytrademantra.com/crude-oil-trading/doha-is-done-saudi-prince-says-no-oil-deal-without-iran/", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/oil-prices-dip-on-stronger-dollar-demand-concerns.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/13/opinion/sunday/how-saudi-arabia-turned-its-greatest-weapon-on-itself.html", "http://english.stackexchange.com/questions/89574/what-does-3-sigma-type-of-event-mean", "http://marketrealist.com/2016/03/goldman-sachs-lowers-wti-brent-price-forecast/", "http://www.investors.com/news/who-needs-iran-russia-saudi-arabia-come-to-terms-for-freeze/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=W_EPC0_SAX_YCUOK_MBBL&amp;f=W", "http://www.nber.org/papers/w15836", "http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://www.epmag.com/eni-reaches-first-oil-goliat-barents-sea-842036", "http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Research/PRN01_Mar2015_Oil_Prices.pdf", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/oil-freeze-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-doha-summit", "http://www.cityam.com/238051/iranian-minister-rebuffs-saudi-oil-demands-throwing-a-spanner-in-the-opec-and-russia-production-freeze-talks", "http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/04/06/oil-prices-jump-after-surprise-u-s-crude-stockpile-draw.html", "http://seekingalpha.com/article/3962475-oil-outlook-secrets-april-will-reveal-least-better", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0XO01U", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/14/best-oil-deal-from-doha-likely-to-underwhelm.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qudNktYwRNo", "http://www.bloomberg.com/energy", "https://www.rt.com/business/335221-iran-oil-russia-opec-meeting/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-meeting-kemp-idUSKCN0XF2AR"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-02-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/146

True

2016-09-30

Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?

binary

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30/2016. Despite significant downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia's government has promised not to impose capital controls (<a href = "http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/08/21/asian-capital-controls-are-a-real-risk-once-again/" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/72c18c2c-554a-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). For more information on capital controls, see <a href = "http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/capital-controls" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/55-will-malaysia-impose-capital-controls-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016" target = "_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a>

2016-10-04

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-10-05

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/55

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1012

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from October 2017 through September 2018.. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42071488#"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/619

True

2018-01-01

Between 8 December 2017 and 1 January 2018, will there be a shutdown of the US federal government?

binary

The last federal shutdown occurred in 2013 (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/01/us/politics/congress-shutdown-debate.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) and there may be a government shutdown this year (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-confronts-jam-packed-december-with-shutdown-deadline-looming/2017/11/26/2828d8ec-d2b0-11e7-95bf-df7c19270879_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/government-shutdown-101-why-they-happen-and-what-is-closed"target="_blank">The National Constitution Center</a>). A partial shutdown (e.g. <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/25/here-is-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-they-ended/?utm_term=.aaed9f0d046b"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>) will count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Between 8 December 2017 and 1 January 2018, there was not a shutdown of the US federal government. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-09

gjopen

["https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/obama-public-option-health-care-225383", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/trump-signs-tax-government-spending-bills-into-law-idUSKBN1EG1T1", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/943856675294982145", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-shutdown/congress-votes-to-avert-shutdown-sends-trump-stopgap-spending-bill-idUSKBN1EF1MZ", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/22/trump-signs-gop-tax-plan-short-term-government-funding-bill.html", "https://thinkprogress.org/flashback-obama-repeatedly-touted-public-option-before-refusing-to-push-for-it-in-the-final-hours-380cbf31b6e0/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/633603", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-to-vote-on-spending-bill-that-senate-wont-pass-rekindling-shutdown-showdown/2017/12/14/b2d27970-e0e9-11e7-bbd0-9dfb2e37492a_story.html?utm_term=.c4a894d6cf1d", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/20/us/politics/congress-spending-bill-shutdown-stopgap.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-08

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/811

True

2015-12-31

Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?

binary

Changes to the overall quota and the establishment or modification of country specific quotas will count. Although OPEC forecasts an increase in demand for oil, the global oil market remains oversupplied; this a problem that will only be compounded as Iranian oil production increases. www.wsj.com/articles/opec-sees-lower-demand-for-its-oil-despite-higher-global-consumption-1436783908 , www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/saudis-pump-record-crude-as-opec-sees-stronger-demand-in-2016 , www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/iran-s-million-barrel-conundrum-brings-battle-back-inside-opec www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3c002a1e-0f4e-11e5-b968-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3fme4bJrl .

2016-01-04

gjopen

["http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7363", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prisoner", "http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/12/04/opec-ponders-strategy-but-lacks-options-to-raise-oil-price", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "https://alphaglider.com/blog/2015/01/14/oil-antibiotics/", "http://www.researchgate.net/publication/281765164", "http://imes.com/2015/12/05/business/energy-environment/opec-meeting-oil-production-price.html?_r=0", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35rErQtJ6uA", "http://www.nyt/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p8H_ESwrWg", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/311.htm", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-naimi-idUSKBN0UD15H20151230", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/3193.htm", "https://youtu.be/Yv02CuIEoxA", "https://youtu.be/nLlVQnPW1lU", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3BDlx_9Tz4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/66320", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2015/12/04/oil-slumps-as-opec-struggles-to-define-its-own-oil-production-quota/", "http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2015/03/17/mlps-will-weather-the-storm", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/business/energy-environment/opec-meeting-oil-production-price.html?_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/64124", "http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/04/investing/opec-meeting-oil-prices-saudi-arabia/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-little-changed-as-investors-eye-opec-meeting-1449222485", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-iraq-idUSKBN0U405720151221"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/12

True

2020-01-01

Before 1 January 2020, will Tesla release an Autopilot feature designed to navigate traffic lights?

binary

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed interest in adding a feature to navigate city streets, including traffic lights (<a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/elon-musk-promises-autopilot-update-to-allow-for-no-driver-input-at-all/" target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>, <a href="http://www.thedrive.com/news/25398/elon-musk-claims-teslas-autopilot-will-soon-handle-stop-signs-street-lights-and-roundabouts" target="_blank">The Drive</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2019-01-18

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1099

True

2017-10-24

Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Sierra Leone between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017? 

binary

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Riots/Protests. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released. If a qualifying event is recorded, the question will be closed retroactively with the date of the first event as the end date of the question. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2017-11-07

gjopen

["http://awoko.org/2017/10/24/sierra-leone-news-disabled-people-protest-at-state-house/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/546-will-acled-record-any-riot-protest-events-in-cote-d-ivoire-in-august-2017", "http://www.thesierraleonetelegraph.com/sierra-leone-political-parties-registration-commission-calls-for-democracy-to-be-upheld/", "http://sierraexpressmedia.com/?p=82742", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/568-will-acled-record-any-riot-protest-events-in-senegal-during-september-2017"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-06

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/640

True

2017-12-31

Will a lethal confrontation involving national military forces of Saudi Arabia and Iran result in at least one fatality for either side in December 2017?

binary

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran over control of the Middle East have intensified. Some wonder if they will engage in military aggression against each other (<a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-iran-conflict-ballistic-missile-yemen-war-702913"target="_blank">NewsWeek</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/22/could-saudi-arabia-and-iran-really-go-to-war.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/world/middleeast/yemen-saudi-iran-missile.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports at least one death (government or civilian) from an attack originating directly from either country. Deaths that result from a proxy war would not count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/12/20/whats-behind-the-feud-between-saudi-arabia-and-iran-power/?utm_term=.c83da14d6e07"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/757

True

2017-03-04

Will Facebook add warning labels to news stories before July 2017?

binary

This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 4 March 2017 (<a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-fake-news-solution-2017-3"target="_blank">Buisness Insider</a>, <a href = "https://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2017/03/05/facebook-fake-news-tool/#19749877ec1b"target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href = "http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/03/06/facebook-begins-flagging-disputed-fake-news/98804948/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The proliferation of "fake news" on Facebook during the US presidential election has led to criticism of the social media platform (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/11/501743684/zuckerberg-denies-fake-news-on-facebook-had-impact-on-the-election" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/viral-fake-election-news-outperformed-real-news-on-facebook" target="_blank">Buzzfeed</a>). CEO Mark Zuckerberg has laid out plans to combat misinformation, including the possibility of posting warning labels on stories (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10103269806149061" target="_blank">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/11/19/how-facebook-plans-crack-down-fake-news/94123842/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). Facebook must implement a widespread, default feature that adds warning labels to news stories that are possibly false or misleading in order for this question to resolve as "yes". _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/187" target="_blank">whether annual sales of electric vehicles in China will reach 500,000 in 2016</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/94" target="_blank">whether TIME magazine will cease publishing a US print edition in the near future</a>.}

2017-03-07

gjopen

["https://www.rt.com/viral/379469-facebook-disputed-news-crackdown/", "http://www.poynter.org/fact-checkers-code-of-principles/", "https://www.facebook.com/help/733019746855448", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/03/06/facebook-begins-flagging-disputed-fake-news/98804948/", "http://gizmodo.com/facebook-finally-rolls-out-disputed-news-tag-everyone-w-1792959827", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/06/technology/france-elections-fake-news-facebook-google/", "http://gadgets.ndtv.com/social-networking/news/facebook-launches-disputed-tag-to-crack-down-on-fake-news-1666499", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/world/europe/russia-fake-news-media-foreign-ministry-.html?emc=edit_ee_20170223&amp;nl=todaysheadlines-europe&amp;nlid=77825025", "http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/sci-tech/facebook-to-launch-fake-news-education-tool-but-won-t-flag-content-1.3357474", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempto_Controlled_English", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-39046595", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/05/facebook-disputed-news-tag/", "https://gizmodo.com/facebook-finally-rolls-out-disputed-news-tag-everyone-w-1792959827", "http://abcnews.com.co/donald-trump-protester-speaks-out-i-was-paid-to-protest/", "https://twitter.com/annamerlan/status/837804702255431680/photo/1", "https://m.facebook.com/help/733019746855448", "https://www.facebook.com/help/572838089565953?helpref=faq_content", "https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/british-mps-are-targeting-facebook-with-fake-news-inquiry?utm_term=.sgmLJ0KYV#.gg3malBEX", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-facebook-idUSKBN14Z0OH", "https://www.google.ca/amp/s/digiday.com/media/german-publishers-facebook/amp/", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/15/media/facebook-fake-news-warning-labels/", "http://www.recode.net/2017/3/4/14816254/facebook-fake-news-disputed-trump-snopes-politifact-seattle-tribune", "http://theseattletribune.com/disclaimer/", "https://news.google.pk/news/more?ncl=d_1LgdDxcjvetDMbudCXTi-wrjWPM&amp;authuser=0&amp;ned=en_pk&amp;topic=tc", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/459779"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-12-09

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/364

True

2017-03-01

Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017?

binary

The Taliban's refusal to join talks hosted by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group in May 2016 (<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/afghan-talks-taliban-refuses-participate-160305135801134.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-idUSKCN0Y9133" target="_blank">Reuters</a>) and the appointment of the hard-line Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada to replace Mullah Akhtar Mohammed Mansour have raised doubts about the future of the Afghan peace process (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/26/middleeast/taliban-leader-peace-talks/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/taliban-mullah-akhtar-mansourhaibatullah-akhundzada-afghanistan-drones-barack-463597" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). _{Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/179" target="_blank">Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/173" target="_blank">Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136" target="_blank">Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?</a>} This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 28 February 2017. _{See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>}

2017-03-02

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-idUSKBN15F17I", "http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/03/russia-s-new-favorite-jihadis-the-taliban.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38048604", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/18/taliban-afghanistan-secret-talks-qatar", "http://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/govt-moves-hold-peace-talks-afghan-envoy", "http://dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/19-Jan-17/afghan--peace-process-", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/world/asia/afghanistan-security-terrorism-taliban.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/challenging-the-u-s-moscow-pushes-into-afghanistan-1485513002?mod=e2fb", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/world/asia/saudi-arabia-afghanistan.html?_r=0", "https://defence.pk/threads/afghanistan-taliban-wont-talk-because-it-is-winning.478178/", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/jan/30/afghanistan-government-open-to-talks-with-taliban-envoy-1565224.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/defense-secretary-carter-makes-surprise-visit-afghanistan-054354459--politics.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/12-asian-geopolitical-trends-and-events-from-2016-thatll-matter-in-2017/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-peacetalks-idUSKCN12I0O2", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38893926", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2017/01/mil-170118-voa01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e1917%2elo0ao02gx5%2e1rh0", "http://paktribune.com/news/Afghanistan-ready-to-talk-unconditionally-with-Taliban-278136.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/367877", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1228413/afghan-taliban-not-ready-talks-pakistan-told/", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/03/2-us-service-members-killed-fighting-taliban-in-afghanistan.html", "https://thewire.in/109617/moscow-six-party-talks-afghanistan-commit-red-lines-taliban-engagement/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38867280", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-afghanistan-idUSKBN13T0CM", "http://www.voanews.com/a/russia-to-host-wider-regional-conference-on-afghanistan/3709818.html", "http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2016/1129/In-Afghanistan-a-mounting-sense-of-failure-and-a-flash-of-hope"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/228

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-idUSKCN18A0ZP?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_content=5918bf7604d30146574db71f&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter", "http://time.com/4826117/dr-congo-kasai-conflict-death-toll/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/opinion/un-congo-murder.html?_r=0", "http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/drc-tribal-rebellion-what-we-know-20170331", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39946722", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/democratic-republic-congo", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bob-dole-signs-contract-to-help-democratic-republic-of-congos-president-cozy-up-to-trump/article/2623141"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/454

True

2017-12-31

Between 6 December and 31 December 2017, will there be an attack on the drone base near Agadez, Niger?

binary

There are concerns that the U.S. drone base near Agadez, Niger may draw the attention of violent extremists (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/a-city-in-niger-worries-a-new-us-drone-base-will-make-it-a-magnet-for-terrorists/2017/11/23/0b62fbf4-cef3-11e7-a87b-47f14b73162a_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2018-01-03

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-06

0.0

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["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/807

True

2016-11-28

Will Alibaba's market capitalisation exceed Tencent's at any point between 23 November 2016 and 1 June 2017?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 28 November 2016. Alibaba’s market capitalisation exceeded Tencent’s on 28 November. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> Alibaba, an e-commerce goliath, and Tencent, a gaming company best known for its messaging and payments app WeChat, are two of the most valuable technology companies in China (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/17/tencent-overtakes-alibaba-as-chinas-most-valuable-tech-company-as-wechat-owner-posts-strong-results.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12766/practice-makes-perfect" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). Bloomberg provides a daily snapshot of market-capitalisation figures in the list of financial indicators below their price graphs: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BABA:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg: Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TCEHY:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg: Tencent Holdings Ltd</a>. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/187" target="_blank">whether annual sales of electric vehicles in China will reach 500,000 in 2016</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/300" target="_blank">whether an Uber self driving car will be involved in an accident before the end of the year</a>.}

2016-12-01

gjopen

["http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-11/24/c_135856270.htm", "https://postimg.org/image/k6srewcvl/", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/11/01/alibaba-stock-sinks-insider-aiding-sec-inquiry/", "http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.111.6121&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf", "http://www.drdobbs.com/architecture-and-design/safe-systems-from-unreliable-parts/228701716", "https://hbr.org/2016/11/the-best-performing-ceos-in-the-world", "https://postimg.org/image/8xmsdex0z/", "http://fortune.com/2016/10/07/china-halt-capital-outflows/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2040012/chinas-exodus-capital-numbers-game-where-scepticism-rules", "http://www.thepaypers.com/online-payments/alibaba-tencent-back-pboc-new-regulations-against-fraud-and-money-laundering/764541-3"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-11-22

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/355

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">The EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/970

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/investigate-killing-15-peacekeepers-drc-180106064338334.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/19/joseph-kabila-stopped-congolese-children-kasai-starvation-un?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21737027-how-stop-catastrophe-congo-sliding-back-bloodshed?frsc=dg%7Ce", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/thousands-congolese-flee-uganda-escape-surge-violence-180125101414719.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/23/congo-steps-up-deadly-crackdown-after-more-protests-against-kabila", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/25/congo-state-agents-murdered-hundreds-in-2017-says-un-report"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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["2018-03-23", 0.2], ["2018-03-24", 0.2], ["2018-03-25", 0.2], ["2018-03-25", 0.2], ["2018-03-26", 0.2], ["2018-03-27", 0.2], ["2018-03-27", 0.15], ["2018-03-28", 0.15], ["2018-03-28", 0.15], ["2018-03-29", 0.15], ["2018-03-29", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-31", 0.15], ["2018-03-31", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/836

True

2017-12-31

Will there be any single day in December 2017 during which 15 or more Ukrainian military personnel are killed?

binary

On November 23, 2017, five (5) Ukrainian servicemen were killed in a military clash (<a href = "https://frontnews.eu/news/en/18177/Death-of-Ukrainian-military-in-Donbas-is-another-proof-of-tragic-consequences-of-Russian-aggression-Tusk"target="blank">Front News</a>). Question will resolve as "yes" if credible media report that 15 or more Ukrainian military personnel (to include contractors or civilian employees of the military) were killed on any single day in December 2017. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/12/ukraine-on-the-front-line-of-europes-forgotten-war"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/796

True

2017-04-30

Will members of Sudan's military or paramilitary attempt to remove Omar al-Bashir as President of Sudan before 1 May 2017?

binary

Omar al-Bashir came to power in a coup in 1989 before being elected President (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16010445" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1989/07/01/world/military-coup-in-sudan-ousts-civilian-regime.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). There are a number of underlying social, economic, and political factors that could place Sudan at risk for a coup attempt (<a href="https://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2015/01/17/statistical-assessments-of-coup-risk-for-2015/" target="_blank">Dart Throwing Chimp</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/157" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15" target="_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 30 April 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-05-02

gjopen

["http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article59153", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61547", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/18/world/africa/us-south-sudan-arms-embargo-genocide.html?emc=edit_ee_20161118&amp;nl=todaysheadlines-europe&amp;nlid=70183565&amp;_r=0", "https://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/bashir-declares-ceasefire-blue-nile-south-kordofan-160618042942706.html", "https://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2015/01/17/statistical-assessments-of-coup-risk-for-2015/", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article58884", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/gitrep-11may16pm/", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61043", "http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2012/11/26/sudans-bashir-government-faces-more-problems-after-failed-coup", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/234466", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201607290097.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/gambias-president-refuses-to-step-down-defying-regional-military-intervention/2017/01/20/098a0782-de94-11e6-8902-610fe486791c_story.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/omar-al-bashir-attends-islamic-summit-jakarta-160307050734283.html", "https://en.gravatar.com/dartthrowingchimp", "http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/22/world/africa/sudan-aborted-coup/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35983518", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article58871", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/sudan-appoints-prime-minister-for-first-time-since-1989/2017/03/02/02387b0e-ff4a-11e6-9b78-824ccab94435_story.html?_hsenc=p2ANqtz---_F-yw5-g-TD049YhlnMbGJ7uHoMhuRUd0662Wagthe7d8LLIBUSCYyGe9kj9bQ3mswiyviw3RqB1xNBMcve9Kpe9ig&amp;_hsmi=43762671&amp;utm_campaign=Daily%20Fringe%20&amp;utm_content=43762671&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_term=.c27c4753eb59", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201605061219.html", "http://bashirwatch.org/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/10/gitrep-9may16pm/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/lifts-20-year-economic-embargo-sudan-170113210941137.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-03

0.0

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["2017-04-17", 0.0], ["2017-04-18", 0.0], ["2017-04-19", 0.0], ["2017-04-19", 0.0], ["2017-04-21", 0.0], ["2017-04-21", 0.0], ["2017-04-22", 0.0], ["2017-04-23", 0.0], ["2017-04-24", 0.0], ["2017-04-24", 0.0], ["2017-04-25", 0.0], ["2017-04-25", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-30", 0.0], ["2017-04-30", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/188

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/983

True

2016-12-31

Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?

binary

This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required. A final agreement on TTIP has yet to be reached (<a href = "http://epthinktank.eu/2015/06/16/eu-us-negotiations-on-ttip-a-survey-of-current-issues/" target = "_blank">European Parliamentary Research Service</a>, <a href = "https://ustr.gov/ttip" target = "_blank">US Trade Representative</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/57-how-many-countries-will-russia-remove-from-its-food-embargo-list-before-6-august-2016" target = "_blank">How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/84-will-turkey-impose-capital-controls-before-1-december-2016" target = "_blank">Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016" target = "_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a>

2017-01-04

gjopen

["http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11A08M", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-trade-belgium-idUSKCN1190L0?il=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315362", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-mulls-change-tack-us-080209587.html", "https://chemicalwatch.com/50529/eu-us-complete-ghs-analysis-in-ttip-negotiations", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/20/chuck_todd_obamas_failure_to_pass_tpp_illustrates_governments_basic_inability_to_function.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/what-is-ttip-and-six-reasons-why-the-answer-should-scare-you-9779688.html", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/eu-us-negotiators-officially-drop-aim-of-concluding-ttip-in-2016/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-21/brexit-talks-loom-large-as-eu-fumbles-trade-deal-with-canada", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-ttip-idUSKCN12I2FZ?il=0", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ttip-trade-deal-agreement-failed-brexit-latest-news-eu-us-germany-vice-chancellor-a7213876.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-ttip-idUSKCN12J10C", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-trade-canada-germany-idUSKCN11P15O?il=0", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/ttip-negotiations-in-the-void/", "http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-speaks-out-in-favor-of-keeping-ttip-negotiations-going/a-19538183", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-ministers-scramble-salvage-us-trade-deal-040001311.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-idUSKBN13629G", "https://www.rt.com/news/362907-poland-france-protest-ceta/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-ttip-merkel-idUSKCN11E332?il=0", "http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/justin-trudeau-brussells-eu-ceta-ttip-toxic-deal-wallonia-a7388841.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership#Negotiation_progress", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-usa-idUSKCN12T095?il=0", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/ttip-eu-and-us-trade-negotiators-seek-to-get-talks-back-on-track", "http://www.politico.eu/article/us-officials-float-plan-to-rescue-ttip-step-by-step-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-obama/", "https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/world/eu-attempts-breathe-life-maligned-ttip-trade-deal-us/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/18

True

2019-10-01

Before 1 October 2019, will the U.S. House of Representatives pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?

binary

There has been a push among some Democrats to impeach President Trump (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/Americaspartisanpolitics" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-46131046/democrats-and-trump-what-does-it-take-to-impeach-a-president" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/11/07/will-democrats-impeach-trump/" target="_blank&quot;">Fortune</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-signal-aggressive-investigations-of-trump-while-resisting-impeachment-calls/2018/11/11/63945180-e5d4-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>).<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px; font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a>.</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="font-size: 10.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span>&nbsp;

2019-10-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-11-30

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1049

True

2016-03-30

Will Moody's downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

binary

In mid-December, President Zuma's dramatic finance minister swap and Moody's change to the country's credit outlook raised questions about the future of the South African economy, currently rated by Moody's as Baa2 (<a href = "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-South-Africas-rating-outlook-to-negative-from-stable--PR_340947" target = "_blank">Moody's</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e0076cda-a3eb-11e5-873f-68411a84f346.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-zuma-idUSKBN0TY1EE20151215" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). For more information on Moody's Global Long Term Rating Scale see page 5 of <a href = "https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/AboutMoodysRatingsAttachments/MoodysRatingSymbolsandDefinitions.pdf" target = "_blank">Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/9-will-the-government-of-venezuela-or-petroleos-de-venezuela-s-a-pdvsa-default-on-their-foreign-currency-debt-before-1-march-2016" target = "_blank">Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/89-how-will-iran-rank-in-the-world-economic-forum-s-2016-2017-global-competitiveness-index" target = "_blank">How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?</a>

2016-04-01

gjopen

["http://allafrica.com/stories/201602250881.html", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Republic-of-the-Congos-rating-to-B1-and--PR_344725", "http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/businesstimes/2016/02/21/No-silver-bullet-for-Gordhan-as-he-prepares-to-deliver-defining-budget", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/can-south-africa-avoid-another-credit-rating-downgrade", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/gitrep-16mar16pm/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/south-africa-s-gordhan-seeks-to-appease-investors-on-economy", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-06/why-pravin-gordhan-can-t-quit-as-south-africa-s-finance-chief", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-places-South-Africas-Baa2-ratings-on-review-for-downgrade--PR_344855", "http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN0WB0U5", "http://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-budget-idUSL8N16331Z", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-almost-certain-to-keep-interest-rates-unchanged-at-next-meeting-1452882343", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/ProductAttachments/Moody&#39;s%20Rating%20System.pdf", "http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1652VA?pageNumber=2&amp;virtualBrandChannel=0", "http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/southafrica", "http://www.fin24.com/Budget/moodys-happy-about-tax-worried-about-growth-20160225", "http://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/116150/south-africa-has-a-70-chance-of-a-downgrade-economist/", "http://www.sabc.co.za/news/a/e8f570804c0c960d87588f86af38e8be/Moodys-wont-downgrade-SAs-economy-to-junk-status:-Economist---20160316", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201603090325.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-24/south-africa-says-budget-credible-enough-to-avoid-downgrade", "http://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-budget-moodys-idUSL8N163505", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35650701"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-01-05

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/109

True

2018-07-06

Before 1 January 2019, will Scott Pruitt cease to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency?

binary

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt faces multiple federal inquiries into his management practices at the agency (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/here-s-a-scorecard-of-the-scott-pruitt-investigations-quicktake"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/08/politics/trump-scott-pruitt/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). <hr> _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 6 July 2018 (<a href = "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/05/scott-pruitts-full-resignation-letter-to-president-trump.html"target="_blank">Fox News</a>; <a href = "https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/05/pruitt-resigns-as-epa-chief-695291"target="_blank">Politico</a>.) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-06

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-20

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/967

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front participate in official negotiations over Western Sahara?

binary

Renewed tensions between Morocco and the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21717383-back-spotlight-fate-western-sahara-no-closer"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/16/opinion/north-africas-next-war.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) has led to a push for negotiations (<a href = "http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/morocco-says-un-to-resolve-western-sahara-dispute-20170704"target="_blank">News 24</a>, <a href = "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56653#.WWvJb9Pyub8"target="_blank">The United Nations</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The Moroccan government and the Polisario Front did not participate in official negotiations over Western Sahara. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-17

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/655

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will Transport for London (TfL) issue a license for Uber?

binary

In September 2017, Transport for London (TfL; London's transport authority) <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/22/uber-licence-transport-for-london-tfl"target="_blank">rejected</a> Uber's application for a new license. Talks between Uber and TfL are ongoing (<a href = "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/uber-and-tfl-plan-more-talks-as-ridehailing-firm-bids-to-get-its-licence-back-a3650836.html"target="_blank">Evening Standard</a>, <a href = "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uber-london-ban-latest-updates-files-appeal-tfl-taxi-ride-hailing-app-news-a7998291.html"target="_blank">The Independent</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Transport for London (TfL) did not issue a license for Uber. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-04

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/27/how-uber-conquered-london", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-24/after-london-ban-uber-s-latest-regulatory-nightmare-is-brazil", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41940018", "http://www.businessinsider.sg/uber-heads-to-court-in-fight-for-london-survival/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-britain/ubers-london-license-appeal-could-take-years-mayor-khan-idUSKBN1DG1G8", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-cyberattack/uber-breach-cover-up-trigger-government-probes-around-the-globe-idUSKBN1DM2F9", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/business/uk-uber-london.html", "https://www.thestreet.com/story/14341843/1/uber-files-appeal-with-london-transport-officials-over-licence-decision.html", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sadiq-khan-hints-that-uber-will-get-new-london-licence-z6xb8r99z", "http://www.france24.com/en/20171220-business-eu-european-court-justice-ecj-rules-uber-transport-company-europe-regulated", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/uber-appeals-london-ban.html", "http://content.tfl.gov.uk/taxi-and-private-hire-action-plan-2016.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-britain/ubers-london-license-appeal-could-take-years-mayor-khan-idUSKBN1DG1G8", "https://www.theguardian.com/business-to-business/2017/nov/28/green-cabs-london-ready-electric-taxis", "http://www.newsweek.com/uber-fined-hiring-drivers-criminal-records-718095", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/05/ubers-change-of-tone-future-london-mayor-sadiq-khan-apology-licence-tfl", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/12/no-quick-win-for-uber-in-london-over-license-loss/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42012719", "http://news.sky.com/story/uber-lines-up-banker-to-chair-uk-unit-amid-london-ban-appeal-11099160", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/616257", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-cyberattack/uber-paid-hackers-to-cover-up-massive-data-breach-idUSKBN1DL2UQ", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/13/uber-appeal-london-licence-tfl"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-23

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/665

True

2018-10-01

Before 1 October 2018, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?

binary

President Trump has repeated his campaign commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or risk the United States withdrawing from NAFTA (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/news/economy/trump-nafta/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-14/kill-nafta-it-s-not-as-easy-as-trump-might-think-quicktake-q-a"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement"target="_blank">NAFTA Secretariat</a>). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, any party can withdraw six months after providing written notice (<a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=d5a8ba07-1fb2-4f28-88d0-a8eac08611a2"target="_blank">NAFTA Secretariat</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-10-03

gjopen

["https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/04/trump-nafta-withdrawal-order/524463/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/business/economy/what-would-happen-if-the-us-withdrew-from-nafta.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-11/trudeau-sees-clear-path-forward-on-nafta-despite-big-impasses", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/news/economy/trump-nafta/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/688426", "http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/26/news/economy/nafta-round-7/index.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-14/nafta-breakup-would-leave-a-bitter-taste-on-valentine-s-day", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta-canada-trump/trump-could-use-nafta-withdrawal-letter-as-negotiating-leverage-idUSKBN1F000B", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/29/us/politics/nafta-talks-conclude-in-montreal-with-signs-of-progress-and-risk.html", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-progress-limited-negotiator-1.4533542", "https://www.bnn.ca/canada-does-not-treat-us-right-trump-threatens-new-global-tax-1.996511", "https://www.bnn.ca/lighthizer-floats-idea-of-separate-nafta-deals-as-patience-with-canada-wanes-lawmaker-1.991327", "https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2018/january/closing-statement-ustr-robert", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-27/trump-said-to-not-plan-nafta-withdrawal-notice-in-state-of-union", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade/u-s-senators-express-optimism-about-nafta-after-trump-meeting-idUSKBN1FR33S", "https://www.ft.com/content/32c378f8-8bc9-11e7-9084-d0c17942ba93", "https://www.bnn.ca/trump-signs-report-contradicting-his-own-views-on-trade-canada-1.1011534", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/24/world/canada/canada-nafta-trade.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2018/01/22/the-nafta-withdrawal-threat-is-real/#7744422a6458", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/02/sanders-and-trump-agree-nafta-has-to-change-they-split-on-how-to-fix-it/?utm_term=.55e397b48099", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2018/01/22/the-nafta-withdrawal-threat-is-real/#6abe1b4d6458", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-nafta-renegotiation-cancellation-1.4536871", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;url=http://maglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/mclarty-update-what-happens-when-or-if-the-us-withdraws-from-nafta-january-2018.pdf&amp;ved=2ahUKEwirqKvx6ZPZAhXCwFkKHduZAdgQFjAAegQIDxAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw3jmoQuNSJW1xGduQ6bRPFN", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-politics-nafta/canadas-pm-talks-tough-on-nafta-repeats-he-could-walk-away-idUSKBN1FM2VL", "http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/22/news/economy/nafta-round-6/index.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-12

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/815

True

2018-12-26

Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks?

binary

In the wake of the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, President Trump signalled his willingness to regulate "bump stocks," an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles. (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/trump-bump-stocks.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/politics/bump-stocks-gun-control-bill-introduced/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/politics/nra-opposes-bump-stock-bills/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them by regulation (<a href = "http://thehill.com/homenews/house/354909-ryan-urges-atf-to-fix-bump-stock-gun-loophole"target="_blank">The Hill</a>) under existing law. Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "<a href = "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/12/26/2018-27763/bump-stock-type-devices"target="_blank">yes</a>" with an end date of 26 December 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-12-27

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-03-07

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/894

True

2017-12-13

Will a Republican win the special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat?

binary

The special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat vacated by now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions is scheduled for 12 December 2017 (<a href = "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/new-alabama-poll-shows-warning-signs-for-republicans-elsewhere/article/2636366"target=_blank">The Washington Examiner</a>, <a href = "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-democrat-doug-jones-pull-off-an-upset-in-alabama/"target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/doug-joness-tricky-two-step-in-deep-red-alabama-exciting-democrats-and-winning-over-republicans-too/2017/11/05/eb8afbdc-bf12-11e7-8444-a0d4f04b89eb_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/09/roy-moore-sex-accusations-244747"target="_blank">Politico</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2017-12-14

gjopen

["https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.cq32okfgf", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/pollsters-pundits-say-alabama-senate-race-impossible-predict-n828236?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_np", "http://pressthink.org/2011/08/why-political-coverage-is-broken/", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/635080", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/alabama-county-analysis-moore-jones-folsom-trump/index.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364383-ala-drama-nears-an-explosive-end", "http://sos.alabama.gov/newsroom/inactive-voters-voter-record-refresh-information", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-alabama/voters-head-to-polls-in-alabama-race-with-high-stakes-for-trump-idUSKBN1E616L", "http://whnt.com/2017/12/08/large-donors-out-of-state-contributors-taking-part-in-alabama-senate-race/", "https://theintercept.com/2017/12/12/roy-moore-doug-jones-black-voters/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637160", "https://press.princeton.edu/titles/8322.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/roy-moore-donald-trump-republicans/index.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364172-moore-i-did-not-date-under-aged-women", "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/house/ga/georgia_6th_district_runoff_election_handel_vs_ossoff-6202.html#polls", "http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/doug_jones_turns_richard_shelb.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/doug-jones-roy-moore-alabama/index.html", "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama%2C_2014_results_by_county.svg", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/fox-news-poll-doug-jones-leads-roy-moore-by-10.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/12/11/why-polls-showing-a-20-point-spread-in-alabama-arent-actually-wrong/?utm_term=.95eebbe1db9d", "http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/364255-sen-shelby-could-save-alabama-from-moore", "http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364236-ivankas-criticism-of-roy-moore-pushed-trump-in-opposite-direction-report", "http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-alabama-senate-black-voters-20171210-story.html", "http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1000915"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-09

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/689

True

2019-01-01

Before 2019, will the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General name a suspected author of the New York Times "Resistance" op-ed?

binary

On 5 September 2018, the New York Times published an op-ed from an anonymous writer cited as a senior official in the Trump administration (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Validation and/or acknowledgment by the suspected author is not required for resolution. Twitter communication will count. If the identity of the author is revealed first (e.g., by the New York Times or the author coming forward) the question will close as no.  _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-01-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1001

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1084

True

2016-12-31

Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

binary

This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (<a href = "http://www.asean.org/storage/images/2015/October/outreach-document/Edited%20RCEP.pdf" target = "_blank">RCEP Fact Sheet</a>). The completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership increased pressure to finalize the deal but no agreement was reached in 2015 (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/tpp-deal-pressures-rcep-trade-talks-in-busan-china-keen-for-progress.html" target = "blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/12/17/asean-wants-a-rcep-trade-deal-by-the-2016-deadline/" target = "_blank">The Star-Malaysia</a>, <a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/22/c_134842294.htm" target = "_blank">Xinhua</a>). Resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/18-will-negotiations-on-the-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-ttip-be-completed-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/57-how-many-countries-will-russia-remove-from-its-food-embargo-list-before-6-august-2016" target = "_blank">How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/86-will-china-conduct-naval-exercises-with-any-asean-member-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/rcep-negotiations-may-miss-december-deadline/article9026863.ece", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/china-championed-asia-trade-pact-gains-traction-in-jakarta-talks", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?multinationals-launch-50-lawsuits", "http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade//rcep-status-update", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/318516", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/tpp-deal-pressures-rcep-trade-talks-in-busan-china-keen-for-progress.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/316791", "http://gbtimes.com/business/asian-nations-call-swift-completion-rcep-trade-talks", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-ready-to-abolish-tariff-structure-if-rcep-promises-fdi/articleshow/53626290.cms", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?rcep-talks-may-miss-december-2016", "https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/rcep/news/Documents/rcep-joint-leaders-statement-8-september-2016.pdf", "http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/newsrelease/significantnews/201608/20160801378079.shtml", "http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1083892/rcep-aims-for-pact-in-13-months", "http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1080409/rcep-leaders-to-skip-2016-completion-target", "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/999677.shtml", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-charges-four-chinese-nationals-and-a-chinese-company-with-aiding-pyongyangs-nuclear-program/2016/09/26/1a7a4b16-8407-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html", "http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-up-for-tough-fight-at-rcep-116091000780_1.html", "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1005283.shtml", "http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/RCEP-talks-extended-to-next-year-amid-hiccups-30295062.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/321652", "http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/progress-for-rcep-has-slowed-but-still-viable-pm-lee", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Asian-trade-pact-talks-to-miss-2016-deadline", "http://wtocenter.vn/news/india-changes-tack-rcep-negotiations", "http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/today-headlines/2016-08/05/content_7192991.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/310496"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-01-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1024

True

2018-04-17

In United States v. Microsoft Corp, will the Supreme Court rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States?

binary

In 2016, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled that Microsoft did not have to comply with a warrant for records stored outside of the US, and the government appealed (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/united-states-v-microsoft-corp/"target="_blank">SCOUTS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-microsoft/u-s-supreme-court-to-decide-major-microsoft-email-privacy-fight-idUSKBN1CL20U"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> In United States v. Microsoft Corp, the Supreme Court did not rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States. This question closed as "b) No" with an end date of 17 April. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2018-04-18

gjopen

["https://harvardlawreview.org/2016/12/microsoft-corp-v-united-states/", "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/united-states-v-microsoft-corp/", "https://judiciary.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/100517-USA-Liberty-Act.pdf", "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/17-2-tsac-states-of-vermont.pdf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/683929", "https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/ireland-risks-shooting-itself-in-the-foot-in-crucial-microsoft-email-case-1.3322422?mode=amp"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/803

True

2016-12-31

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

binary

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> For this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities, including civilians killed inadvertently. In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (<a href = "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/26/u-s-dispatches-warship-to-challenge-chinas-fake-islands/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-southchinasea-usa-china-navy-idUSKCN0SO05320151030" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/the-us-china-south-china-sea-showdown/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (<a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/china-tests-japans-resolve-over-east-china-sea/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://www.cfr.org/japan/sino-japanese-clash-east-china-sea/p30504" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/34-will-china-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/86-will-china-conduct-naval-exercises-with-any-asean-member-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/12/beijing-tells-seoul-to-stay-calm-and-carry-on-after-chinese-fishermen-sink-a-south-korean-coast-guard-boat/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/beijing-tells-seoul-stay-calm-205236784.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-china-politics-idUSKBN13204P", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/01/north-korea-tensions-us-will-pay-price-for-thaad-in-south-korea-beijing-peoples-daily-says.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/the-asean-crisis-part-1-why-the-south-china-sea-is-a-critical-test/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-philippines-idUSKBN13S05C", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-china-installs-weapons-systems-on-artificial-islands-us-think-tank/ar-AAlzhFa?li=BBnbcA1&amp;ocid=HPCDHP", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2045243/unclear-direction-trump-policy-poses-uncertainty", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2045610/trump-change-points-calmer-waters-south-china-sea", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-idUSKBN1441DE", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/rok/2016/rok-161103-sputnik01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e1860%2ekb0ao06eo8%2e1pl7", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence-idUSKBN13S0DA", "http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/12/13/world/asia/13reuters-southchinasea-usa.html?ref=world", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-drone-idUKKBN1452HV", "https://youtu.be/ItRDHxoPsbc", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/14/501998081/questions-about-chinas-military-training-after-female-fighter-pilot-dies", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summit-philippines-russia-idUSKBN13F09V", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-japan-idUSKBN1360IU", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/politics/trump-speaks-with-taiwans-leader-a-possible-affront-to-china.html?emc=edit_na_20161202&amp;nlid=70183565&amp;ref=headline&amp;_r=0", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politics/guam-nuclear-missile-submarine-visit/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-drone-idUSKBN14526J", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/14/recent-developments-surrounding-south-china-sea.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-philippines-idUSKBN13S05C?il=0", "http://www.ibtimes.com/south-china-sea-conflict-indonesia-new-zealand-australia-malaysia-singapore-britain-2425483", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-taiwan-idUSKBN13R2NT"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-03

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73

True

2018-06-28

Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating before 29 June 2018?

binary

Revisions to the "outlook" will not suffice. Chile's economy has recently seen its best growth figures in five years (<a href="http://santiagotimes.cl/2018/05/08/boosted-by-mining-and-consumption-chilean-economy-activity-soars-4-6-in-march/" target="_blank">Santiago Times</a>, <a href="https://countryeconomy.com/ratings/chile" target="_blank">Country Economy</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/chile-ratings/sp-downgrades-chile-sovereign-debt-for-first-time-in-decades-idUSL1N1K4278" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). <hr> S&P, Moody's, nor Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 June 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-05-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/958

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/632

True

2016-12-31

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

binary

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm" target = "_blank">NATO</a> ). For more information on Article 4 see <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm" target = "_blank">NATO</a>. NATO has voiced concern about Russia's actions in the Baltics and violations of Turkey's airspace (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/world/europe/russian-violations-of-airspace-seen-as-unwelcome-test-by-the-west.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/08/britain-station-troops-poland-latvia-lithuania-estonia-russian-aggression" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/57-how-many-countries-will-russia-remove-from-its-food-embargo-list-before-6-august-2016" target = "_blank">How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/64-will-president-putin-meet-with-prime-minister-abe-in-japan-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/79-will-vladimir-putin-attend-the-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington-dc-in-march-2016" target = "_blank">Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/03/14/putin-changes-september-election-rules-to-prop-up-his-united-russia-party/#6a4ce2e458a2", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3771895/The-Latest-Turkish-President-Erdogan-arrives-G-20-summit.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/411165", "https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-reiterates-support-syria/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander", "http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160721/1043373832/russia-warned-turkey-coup-attempt.html", "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-10-04/the-latest-un-official-decries-calamity-in-syrias-aleppo", "http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160902/1044887700/putin-assad-ouster-patience.html", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/why-putin-is-escalating-r_b_11781280.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-08/russia-has-the-most-boring-election-of-2016", "http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/09/china_and_iran_wont_join_putin.html", "http://www.news.com.au/world/three-russian-submarines-believed-headed-to-launch-missiles-at-syrian-city-of-aleppo/news-story/cad1743bac096b5fe320563c450b0de1", "https://www.rt.com/news/356626-russia-turkey-incirlik-airbase/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-poroshenko-idUSKCN11C0PV", "http://www.levada.ru/2016/07/01/bolshe-40-rossiyan-nazvali-dumskie-vybory-imitatsiej-borby/", "http://www.npr.org/2016/12/30/507517664/u-s-announces-sanctions-against-russia-in-response-to-cyberattacks", "http://www.ibtimes.com/what-natos-article-4-why-turkey-called-consultations-under-rarely-used-provision-2026060", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37779204", "https://www.rt.com/news/362062-missiles-iskander-kaliningrad-nato/", "http://www.dw.com/en/shinzo-abe-and-vladimir-putin-discuss-island-dispute-north-korea/a-19524399", "http://www.rferl.mobi/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html", "http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-vs-putin/27962888.html", "http://europe.newsweek.com/putins-united-russia-drops-polls-ahead-september-elections-494887?rm=eu", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/putin-s-military-buildup-in-the-baltic-stokes-invasion-fears", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/08/tensions-between-us-and-russia-more-dangerous-than-cold-war-as-t/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-03

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70

True

2016-05-15

Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?

binary

<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>The $5 billion expansion will double the capacity of the Panama Canal, allowing much larger ships to transit between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10480" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/06/expanding-the-panama-canal/396716" target="_blank">Atlantic</a>). Expansion is scheduled to be completed in the spring of 2016, but leaks on the Pacific side of the canal may delay the project (<a href="http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/panama-canal-expansion-93-complete/" target="_blank">Hellenic Shipping News</a>, <a href="http://fortune.com/2015/11/02/the-new-panama-canal-is-leaking-water-and-money/" target="_blank">Fortune</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/22-will-brazil-s-president-dilma-rousseff-resign-or-be-impeached-before-1-april-2016" target = "_blank">Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/112-will-russia-conduct-a-naval-exercise-in-the-western-hemisphere-with-a-central-or-south-american-country-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?</a>

2016-05-18

gjopen

["http://www.sandandgravel.com/news/article.asp?v1=22866", "http://gcaptain.com/panama-canal-expansion-to-open-end-june/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/panama-aims-end-june-much-delayed-canal-expansion-001713762.html", "http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/americas/trial-phase-begins-on-new-panama-canal-locks.html", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/panama-to-open-enlarged/2631954.html?cx_tag=undefined&amp;cid=tg:recos:undefined:standard#cxrecs_s", "https://www.pancanal.com/eng/pr/press-releases/2016/04/18/pr581.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://micanaldepanama.com/expansion/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "https://www.porttechnology.org/news/panama_canal_expansion_april_update", "http://climateerinvest.blogspot.in/2016/04/panama-canal-authority-books-first.html?m=1", "http://micanaldepanama.com/expansion/2016/03/panama-canal-inaugurates-scale-model-training-facility-announces-expansion-inauguration-date/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.joc.com/port-news/panama-canal-news/panama-canal-locks-officially-open-june-26_20160324.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-22/panama-canal-expansion-seen-open-by-july-after-years-of-setbacks", "http://container-mag.com/2016/03/11/consultancy-chief-sceptical-of-june-opening-of-panama-canal/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0VD07T", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "http://www.joc.com/port-news/panama-canal-news/panama%E2%80%99s-new-locks-seen-slowly-gaining-new-container-services_20160125.html", "https://gcaptain.com/panama-canal-expansion-to-open-end-june/", "http://news.co.cr/solid-growth-expected-for-panamas-economy-after-canal-expansion/45757/", "http://news.yahoo.com/panama-aims-end-june-much-delayed-canal-expansion-001713762.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/21/gitrep-20mar16pm/", "http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/03/01/panama-canal-expansion-enters-trial-phase/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-17

0.0

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["2016-05-15", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/78

True

2018-01-01

Will an unmanned aerial vehicle be used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017?

binary

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to deliver relief in humanitarian crises is the object of increasing attention, including several ongoing initiatives (<a href = "http://drones.fsd.ch/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Drones-in-Humanitarian-Action.pdf"target="_blank">Swiss Foundation for Mine Action</a>, <a href = "http://www.handyshippingguide.com/shipping-news/predators-drone-descendant-could-bring-food-to-war-zones-not-bombs_7589"target="_blank">Handy Shipping Guide</a>, <a href = "http://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/20161030/uae-providing-life-saving-drone-delivery-service-in-africa"target="_blank">The National</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2016/10/15/rwanda-drone-delivery-service/"target="_blank">CNBC Africa</a>). Humanitarian aid delivery to conflict zones has been impeded in places like Syria (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/syria-civil-war-explained-160505084119966.html"target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/30/syria-un-aid-convoys-more-than-four-fifths-blocked-delayed-september"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>), Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38366712"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2014/12/eastern-ukraine-humanitarian-disaster-looms-food-aid-blocked/"target="_blank">Amnesty International</a>), Burma (<a href = "http://time.com/4576079/burma-myanmar-arakan-rakhine-rohingya-tatmadaw-suu-kyi/"target="_blank">Time Magazine</a>, <a href = "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/21/burma-aid-blocked-rakhine-state"target="_blank">Human Rights Watch</a>), and South Sudan (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/2016/12/21/506401398/u-n-worries-south-sudan-is-on-the-brink-of-genocide"target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-10-14/south-sudan-starves-as-aid-blocked-money-spent-on-fighting"target="_blank">US News</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles"target = "_blank">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.} <hr> An unmanned aerial vehicle was not used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-16

gjopen

["https://www.devex.com/news/drone-meet-the-humanitarian-cluster-approach-91436", "https://slice.mit.edu/2017/11/06/drones-disappear-morse-corp/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aid-innovation-drones/its-a-bird-its-a-plane-its-an-edible-aid-drone-idUSKBN15Z1TG", "http://www.msf.org/en/article/yemen-crisis-update--july-2017", "https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/rescue-drones-hurricane-flood-disaster-relief/", "http://insideunmannedsystems.com/tanzania-zipline-launch-worlds-largest-national-drone-delivery-network-provide-life-saving-care/", "https://www.windhorse.aero/article.php/64/windhorse-events-2017-so-far", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level", "http://dronemajor.net/", "http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/development/malawis-drone-corridor-challenges-scepticism-towards-uavs/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/hurricanes-show-why-drones-are-future-disaster-relief-ncna799961", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/photos-aid-groups-tackling-yemens-cholera-outbreak/", "http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=49169&amp;catid=35&amp;Itemid=107", "https://qz.com/1058702/trumps-multibillion-dollar-border-wall-wouldnt-stop-this-5000-drone/", "https://www.windhorse.aero/?jssCart=c0c1e11e0c8368de102ac986fd39d5ca", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/tech/big-data-drone-tech-can-help-fight-famine", "https://www.windhorse.aero/section.php/11/1/scenarios", "https://reliefweb.int/report/world/belgium-doubles-its-investment-humanitarian-innovation", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/547107", "https://s1.postimg.org/4sd4ciltbz/Clipboard023.png", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/15/news/companies/predator-turns-humanitarian-angel-one/index.html", "https://www.northeastern.edu/sei/2017/11/zipline-lifesaving-deliveries-by-drone/", "https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/innovations", "http://www.wsj.com/video/how-drone-delivery-is-saving-lives-in-rural-rwanda/665024AF-058F-4CB5-A1E1-C93BC67BAE3E.html?mod=trending_now_video_4", "http://insideunmannedsystems.com/urgent-supplies-air/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-02-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/420

True

2016-11-08

Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Ron Johnson (R - WI) won his bid for reelection against Russ Feingold on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> Senator Ron Johnson is facing former Senator Russ Feingold in the 2016 elections (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/14/politics/russ-feingold-ron-johnson-wisconsin-senate-race/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/04/the-top-10-senate-races-in-2016/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/178" target="_blank">Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/160" target="_blank">Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/159" target="_blank">Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?</a>

2016-11-16

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-15

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/177

True

2017-10-01

Before 1 October 2017, will one day of protests in Venezuela result in more than 25 fatalities?

binary

Protests in Venezuela have become increasingly violent, with fatalities suffered by supporters of both sides, bystanders and members of the security forces (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19A33U"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN1811X3"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Twenty-five fatalities did not occur in one day of protests in Venezuela. This question closed as "No," with an end date of 1 October 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-04

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un-rights-idUSKCN1BA0ZN?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=US%20Reuters%20News%20Now%202017-08-30&amp;utm_term=US%20Reuters%20News%20Now", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41091745", "https://in.reuters.com/article/us-usa-venezuela-sanctions-idINKCN1B32PD", "http://runrun.es/rr-es-plus/319427/fotos-infografia-y-mapa-muertos-en-protestas-en-venezuela-parte-dos.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/venezuela-cut-deeper-into-junk-by-fitch-on-probable-default", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/world/americas/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-military.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-it-is-preparing-sanctions-against-more-venezuelan-officials-1503520203", "http://training.goodjudgment.com/Ordered_Categorical_Scoring_Rule.pdf", "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Heres-Your-Guide-to-Understanding-Protest-Deaths-in-Venezuela-20170422-0016.html", "https://hbr.org/2017/09/when-should-multinationals-move-back-into-venezuela", "https://www.voanews.com/a/colombia-santos-no-latam-leader-will-accept-us-militart-force-venezuela/3984445.html", "http://www.barrons.com/articles/venezuela-bond-default-probable-fitch-downgrade-says-1504129573", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article170795077.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2017_Venezuelan_protests#August", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-venezuela-military-response-idUSKBN1AS014", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelan-opposition-pins-hopes-on-elections-as-protests-falter-idUSKCN1BG25K", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/08/americas/venezuela-unrest/index.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/560639", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40931216", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/16/venezuela-governor-says-36-killed-during-fighting-at-prison.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/02/world/americas/venezuela-nicholas-maduro-inflation-economic-collapse.html?mcubz=3", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN1B60KA", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-29/defying-logic-and-sanctions-venezuela-s-economy-slumps-along", "https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1479/99/1479991204118.png", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-25/venezuela-oil-minister-pdvsa-head-to-switch-roles-maduro-says"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-07-25

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/540

True

2018-10-01

Before 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?

binary

Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (<a href = "http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/11/north-korea-s-generals-could-turn-against-kim-jong-un.html"target="_blank">The Daily Beast</a>), assassination (<a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/25/north-korean-leader-faces-four-assassination-scenarios-study-say/"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>), foreign intervention (<a href = "http://theweek.com/articles/648718/south-korea-plan-decapitate-kim-jong-un"target="_blank">The Week</a>), or state collapse (<a href = "https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/north-korea-collapse-scenarios/"target="_blank">The Brookings Institution</a>). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-10-03

gjopen

["http://www.dw.com/en/can-north-koreas-elites-oust-kim-jong-un/a-39091374", "http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-defector-thae-yong-ho-kim-jong-un-overthrown-10-years-2017-8", "http://summitlake.com/wp_1commentary/?p=534", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/20/mapped-the-7-governments-the-u-s-has-overthrown/", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html", "http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-purges-and-executes-official-charge-nuclear-test-site-report-752196", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/trumps-overconfidence-in-us-missile-defense-could-lead-to-a-deadly-war-with-north-korea/", "http://global-health.healthgrove.com/l/219/North-Korea", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/836585/trump-us-north-korea-topple-kim-jong-un-world-war-three", "https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/674267/Kim-Jong-Un-North-Korea-Moranbong-Hyon-Song-wol", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/world/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un.html", "https://sinoinsider.com/2017/12/increasing-odds-of-war-on-korean-peninsula-could-inspire-internal-action-against-kim-jong-un/?utm_content=buffer10d1f&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=linkedin.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_in_Asia", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/600816", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_in_Asia#Korea", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41228181", "https://www.vox.com/2017/9/28/16375158/north-korea-nuclear-war-trump-kim-jong-un", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations", "http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2097426_2097427_2097430,00.html", "http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PRC-Document-1.pdf", "http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2347797017732227", "http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/north-korea-life-expectancy", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5111347/Kim-Jong-s-nuclear-hit-list-revealed.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/08/sport/north-korea-south-korea-talks-winter-olympics-2018-pyeongchang/index.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/682

True

2019-02-27

In Madison v. Alabama, will the Supreme Court rule that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison?

binary

In 1985, Vernon Madison was first convicted of capital murder in state court (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/death-row-inmate-who-murdered-police-office-could-be-spared-execution-he-cant-821881" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). A series of strokes has since left him without any memory of the crime, and his counsel is arguing that executing a person for a crime they cannot remember violates the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/madison-v-alabama" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/17-7505" target="_blank">Oyez</a>). If the Supreme Court decides to vacate and remand the case for further proceedings, the question will resolve as yes. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>}<span style="font-size: 13.5px;">.</span>_{<a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank"><br></a>}<hr><p>This question closes as yes on 27 February 2019.&nbsp;https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-7505_2d9g.pdf<br></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2019-02-28

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-21

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1005

True

2018-06-21

In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state?

binary

Currently, under the Supreme Court’s decision in Quill Corp. v. North Dakota , states and their political subdivisions are not permitted to impose sales taxes on sales made by firms that do not have a physical presence within their jurisdiction (<a href = "https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/91-0194.ZO.html"target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>). This decision has prevented state and local governments from imposing sales taxes on Internet sales (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-tax/trump-administration-backs-states-bid-to-collect-online-sales-taxes-idUSKBN1GI05Z"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The state of South Dakota is asking the Supreme Court to revisit its decision in Quill (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/south-dakota-v-wayfair-inc"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.bna.com/supreme-court-overturn-n57982088329/"target="_blank">Bloomberg BNA</a>, <a href = "https://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/85114.html"target="_blank">E-Commerce Times</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The Supreme Court ruled that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state. This question closed as “yes” with an end date of 21 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/17-494_j4el.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-06-22

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-03-14

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/901

True

2018-04-05

Before 1 October 2018, will the water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam?

binary

Water ministers refer to Egypt's Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Ethiopia's Minister of Water Irrigation and Electricity, and Sudan's Minister of Electricity and Water Resources. Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), located in Ethiopia, is more than halfway complete. However, ongoing technical negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have hit a roadblock as Egypt has concerns over its downstream access to Nile water (<a href = "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1195321/middle-east"target="_blank">Arab News</a>, <a href = "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/egypt-girds-itself-loss-power-over-nile"target="_blank">Stratfor</a>, <a href = "http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/arab-league-extreme-concern-over-ethiopias-nile-da/"target="_blank">Global Construction Review</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> All three water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan met to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 5 April 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-04-06

gjopen

["https://qz.com/1181318/ethiopia-egypt-sudan-and-eritrea-tensions-over-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-on-nile-river/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africanunion-summit-nile/egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-hope-to-break-nile-dam-talks-deadlock-in-one-month-idUSKBN1FI1LC", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/11/egypt-sudan-spat-muddies-prospects-for-deal-on-big-nile-dam-renaissance-gerd-ethiopia-sisi-turkey/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ru/contents/articles/originals/2016/01/saudi-investments-agriculture-sudan-egypt-fears-water-nile.html", "http://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/agreement-on-declaration-of-principles-on-the-grand-ethiopianrenaissance-dam-project-a-reaffirmation-of-the-1929-and-1959agreement-2151-6200-1000170.php?aid=71460#1", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg", "https://www.voanews.com/a/tension-in-east-africa-ticks-up-over-nile-gulf-power-struggle/4220431.html", "http://www.egyptindependent.com/ethiopia-postpones-renaissance-dam-meeting-amid-domestic-tension-egypt-fm/", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/02/06/Egypt-and-Ethiopia-between-deadlock-and-breakthrough-over-Nile-dam.html", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1195321/middle-east", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/ethiopian-leader-to-step-down-in-wake-of-unrest-1518707206", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/886-before-1-october-2018-will-the-water-ministers-of-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-meet-to-resume-technical-negotiations-over-the-renaissance-dam/www.omicsonline.org/open-access/agreement-on-declaration-of-principles-on-the-grand-ethiopianrenaissance-dam-project-a-reaffirmation-of-the-1929-and-1959agreement-2151-6200-1000170.php?aid=71460#1", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64431", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/fr/contents/articles/originals/2016/02/egypt-interview-orabi-sudan-ethiopia-renaissance-dam.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/sisi-egypt-war-sudan-ethiopia-180116074205823.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/nile-dam-dispute-troops-mass-sudan-eritrea-border-180202150903811.html", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/19/c_136984091.htm"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-02-07

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/886

True

2018-06-20

In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?

binary

In November 2016, the District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin ruled 2-1 that the state legislature's redistricting plan was unconstitutional (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wisconsin-redistricting-idUSKBN13H0SV"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href= "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-court-says-wisconsin-s-gop-redistricting-maps-unconstitutional-n686991"target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/16-1161-op-bel-dist-ct-wisc.pdf"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>). The Supreme Court agreed in July 2017 to hear an appeal (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Oral arguments are currently scheduled to be heard on 3 October 2017. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> In Gill v. Whitford, the Supreme Court did not rule that any part of Wisconsin’s redistricting plan was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. This question closed as "b) No" with an end date of 18 June. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-06-21

gjopen

["https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/opinion/gerrymandering-supreme-court.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/09/politics/north-carolina-gerrymandering-case/index.html", "http://www.phillyvoice.com/the-supreme-court-and-gerrymandering-what-it-means-for-pennsylvania/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/05pdf/05-204.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-election/supreme-court-blocks-redrawing-of-north-carolina-congressional-maps-idUSKBN1F73C1", "https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21729755-nine-judges-will-consider-gerrymandering-gay-wedding-cakes-labour-unions-and-host", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/opinion/gerrymandering-supreme-court.html?_r=0", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/682509", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/north-carolina-gerrymander.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideological_leanings_of_U.S._Supreme_Court_justices", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/pennsylvania-legislators-go-justices-redistricting/", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/17-333", "http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/01/30/The-Supreme-Court-may-have-signaled-that-it-might-block-Pennsylvania-s-ruling-against-partisan-gerrymandering/stories/201801290222", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/us/pennsylvania-maps-congress.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;re", "https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21735638-unfortunately-will-be-hard-repeat-other-states-pennsylvanias-supreme-court", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/opinion/chief-justice-roberts-middle.html?action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=opinion-c-col-left-regi", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/05/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-redistricting/index.html", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/02/alito-denies-stay-pennsylvania-redistricting-case/", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/court-puts-temporary-hold-north-carolina-redistricting-order/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/10/the-league-of/309084/", "http://www.campaignlegalcenter.org/document/league-women-voters-north-carolina-v-rucho-opinion", "http://electionlawblog.org/", "https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2018/01/strange-territory", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/opinion/gerrymandering-supreme-court.html?action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=opinion-c-col-right-region&amp;region=opinion-c-col-right-region&amp;WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region&amp;_r=1", "https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2018/01/monstrous-gerrymanders"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/572

True

2016-02-09

Will China remove the HYSY 981 oil rig from disputed waters claimed by Vietnam before 1 April 2016?

binary

This question has been voided. In January 2016 China moved the HYSY 981 oil rig into a part of the South China sea claimed by both Vietnam and China, drawing protests from Hanoi (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/vietnam-claims-china-towed-oil-exploration-rig-into-disputed-waters-1453214761" target = "_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/world/asia/south-china-sea-vietnam-china.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/is-china-interfering-in-vietnams-politics-with-its-south-china-sea-moves/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>).

None

gjopen

["https://twitter.com/fravel/status/690208795037925377", "http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/en/weekly-bulletin/1447-weekly-bulletin-2812-03012016", "http://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/economy", "https://www.google.com/maps/place/17%C2%B029&#39;31.8%22N+110%C2%B057&#39;10.8%22E/@17.7636939,106.495111,6z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en", "http://www.smh.com.au/world/south-china-sea-vietnam-accuses-china-of-dragging-oil-rig-into-its-waters-20160120-gmafr1.html", "http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/vietnam/overview", "https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/1029855/Long_georgetown_0076M_13122.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y", "http://www.ibtimes.com/south-china-sea-controversy-vietnam-claims-china-conducting-oil-rig-activities-2271913", "http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20160204-THE-MINUS-TOUCH/Politics-Economy/Phuong-Nguyen-Vietnam-s-surprising-party-", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/119975", "http://www.msa.gov.cn/html/xinxichaxungongkai/gkml/HXTG/hainan/20160122/05639ED3-9632-4ACE-A47B-A985D508DE75.html", "http://bigstory.ap.org/article/4eea73c72ec94c44a268b6bbbb49a8fe/vietnam-warns-china-over-oil-rig-activities", "http://cimsec.org/21720-2/21720", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16178545", "http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/4-reasons-china-removed-oil-rig-hysy-981-sooner-than-planned/", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/asia/vietnam-china-south-china-sea-oil-rig/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/119103", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/119103", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/119307", "http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/why-did-china-set-up-an-oil-rig-within-vietnamese-waters/", "http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/details/ships/shipid:565777/mmsi:413464330/imo:9480344/vessel:HAI_YANG_SHI_YOU_981#", "https://www.google.com/maps/place/18%C2%B011&#39;27.6%22N+109%C2%B027&#39;17.3%22E/@18.1967495,108.8263875,8z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/123782", "http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0UY0XA?irpc=932", "http://www.offshore-technology.com/news/newsvietnam-warns-china-moving-oil-rig-disputed-waters-4790353"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-02-02

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/132

False

2015-10-13

Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?

binary

Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered the Iranian Parliament -- the Islamic Consultative Assembly, or Majles -- to vote on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/world/middleeast/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-iran-supreme-leader-nuclear-deal-vote.html ).

2015-10-13

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-14

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/27

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from October 2017 through September 2018.. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.sofx.com/2017/11/06/executed-741-civilians-mosul-battle-un-bbc-news/", "http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/10/iraq-fresh-evidence-that-tens-of-thousands-forced-to-flee-tuz-khurmatu-amid-indiscriminate-attacks-lootings-and-arson/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-khanaqin/kurdish-demonstrator-killed-6-wounded-in-iraqi-city-of-khanaqin-mayor-idUSKBN1CO2AD", "https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/618-between-1-october-2017-and-30-september-2018-will-an-armed-group-from-iraq-engage-in-a-campaign-that-systematically-kills-1-000-or-more-civilians-in-iraq/www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/10/iraq-fresh-evidence-that-tens-of-thousands-forced-to-flee-tuz-khurmatu-amid-indiscriminate-attacks-lootings-and-arson/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/618

True

2017-11-30

Will Iran execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?

binary

At least part of the attack must occur during the question's open period. The question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and resolved on 31 January 2018 to allow for delayed reporting. The following levels of cyber attack will all count: Low-Level Cyber Attacks create temporary and/or localized disruption of services that are dependent on networked infrastructure but do not threaten the core functionality of critical infrastructure targets. For example, a series of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against banking websites-while widespread-would cause only temporary disruption of Internet access to customer's bank accounts. They would not affect customer account balances or other banking services such as ATM withdrawals, nor would they disrupt the larger financial system, although the affected banks would incur losses because of the mitigation and other costs.Moderate-Level Cyber Attacks create localized, nonpersistent disruption to core functionality of critical services and functions but do not generate substantive systemic or national-level effects. For example, a cyber-attack that disrupted a single power plant for a couple of hours-equivalent to a temporary local power outage from a snow storm-would qualify as a moderate-level cyber attack. High-Level Cyber Attacks disrupt critical infrastructure services and generate substantive systemic or national-level effects over an extended period of time. For example, a cyber attack that reduced oil pipeline transport across a key region and resulted in a spike in national oil prices over the course of a month would qualify as a high-level cyber attack. Catastrophic Cyber Attacks affect the fundamental viability of core government, military, or economic services or functions; or cause significant loss of life or widespread property damage. For example, a cyber attack against critical infrastructures that caused an economic depression would qualify as a catastrophic cyber attack. A US entity can be governmental, commercial, academic, nonprofit or an individual. For the question to resolve as 'yes', the government of Iran must sponsor or execute the attack. Outcome will be determined by credible open source cybersecurity industry analysis or media reporting (e.g., Crowdstrike, FireEye, ThreatConnect, Symantec, McAfee, Reuters, BBC, AP). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 30 November 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-03-14

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/619415", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-hbo-indictment/u-s-prosecutors-charge-iranian-in-game-of-thrones-hack-idUSKBN1DL1YT", "http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/5f4451044af641f8985745d1fe7ce75d/teenage-girls-talking-on-telephone-in-bedroom-bxfff9.jpg", "https://www.iranhumanrights.org/2017/11/irgc-hackers-target-iranian-journalists-based-abroad-with-malware-campaign/", "https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.824241", "https://www.cisomag.com/iran-orchestrates-thousands-cyber-attacks-daily-israel-military-israeli-general/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-11/kaspersky-lab-has-been-working-with-russian-intelligence", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/14/iran-to-blame-for-cyber-attack-on-mps-emails-british-intelligence", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2017/11/21/u_s_unseals_indictment_against_iranian_alleged_hbo_hacker.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/24/iran-nuclear-deal-hacking-243059", "https://theintercept.com/2017/10/04/masquerading-hackers-are-forcing-a-rethink-of-how-attacks-are-traced/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/17/israel-is-growing-increasingly-worried-about-the-trump-administration/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/iran-linked-hackers-hit-oil-aviation-firms-u-s-saudi-n802716", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40297493", "https://in.reuters.com/article/us-iran-cyber/once-kittens-in-cyber-spy-world-iran-gains-prowess-security-experts-idINKCN1BV1VA", "http://www.firstpost.com/world/cockpit-adventure-us-navy-left-red-faced-after-pilot-draws-enormous-outline-of-penis-in-the-sky-4217159.html", "https://www.google.ca/amp/s/arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/12/game-changing-attack-on-critical-infrastructure-site-causes-outage/%3famp=1", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34832512", "https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/09/hackers-lie-in-wait-after-penetrating-us-and-europe-power-grid-networks/", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/12/trump-nobody-knows-whats-going-on-because-of-computers.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/13/iran-responsible-cyberattack-british-parliament/", "https://www.wired.com/story/iran-hackers-apt33/", "https://en.radiofarda.com/a/us-justice-department-irn-cases/28864091.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-summit-padan/irans-hacking-ability-improving-israeli-general-idUSKBN1D02O0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-cyber/saudi-agency-says-country-targeted-in-cyber-spying-campaign-idUSKBN1DK27M?il=0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/609

True

2016-12-31

Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?

binary

This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> In 2012, Newsweek stopped publishing the weekly print edition (<a href = "http://abcnews.go.com/Business/magazines-follow-newsweeks-lead-shuttering-print-version/story?id=17508305" target = "_blank">ABC News</a>).

2017-01-04

gjopen

["http://nypost.com/2016/09/16/time-inc-names-new-exec-amid-companys-digital-push/", "http://www.foliomag.com/time-inc-quad-graphics-expand-printing-partnership/", "https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/adrev-600x423.jpg?quality=80", "https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/technology-obsolete-out_of_date-newspaper-social_network-social_networking-jsh120407_low.jpg", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/299727", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/323491", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/325659", "http://www.aol.com/article/2016/09/13/time-inc-ceo-steps-down-following-a-health-incident/21471070/", "http://newspaperdeathwatch.com/", "http://www.expressnews.com/business/national/article/Time-Inc-shakes-up-management-replacing-chief-9220409.php", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/326585", "http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/284320/smart-publishers-should-move-beyond-header-bidding.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/time-inc-enters-video-streaming-fray-with-debut-of-people-entertainment-network-1473586200", "http://www.adweek.com/fishbowlny/sam-jacobs-time-digital/386756", "https://subscription.time.com/storefront/GettheprintanddigitaleditionsofTIMEmagazineaswellasannualaccesstotheTIMEVaultforjust40testformGettheprintanddigitaleditionsofTIMEmagazineaswellasannualaccesstotheTIMEVaultforjust30/site/td-semcntl52for40.html?link=1035388&amp;fpa_oc=TIME+Natural+Search+Orders", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/326158", "http://www.journalism.org/files/legacy/u29/ime_and_Newsweek_Single-Copy_Sales_Over_Time.png", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/338371", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/time-inc-names-jen-wong-to-new-coo-position-1473941680", "http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/rich-battista-ceo-time-inc", "https://friscofastball.com/2016/12/01/live-stock-coverage-quad-graphics-inc-on-focus-after-crashing-in-todays-session/", "http://thespun.com/college-football/fansided-fires-editor-mia-khalifa", "https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2014/mar/31/paper-vs-digital-reading-debate-ebooks-tim-waterstone", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/time-inc-revenue-falls-digital-cant-offset-print-declines-1478173930", "http://www.irishnews.com/business/2016/09/16/news/never-a-better-time-to-advertise-in-print-says-time-ceo-698292/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-12-08

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/94

True

2017-11-01

Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Iraq (IRQ) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?

binary

The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href = "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html"target="_blank">Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: 'State Perpetrator'; 'Transnational, State'; or 'Multiple Perpetrators (State and Non-State)'. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which covers the period of interest. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Due to a temporary pause in data availability this question will remain closed and unresolved until data becomes available. This is currently expected to be around March 2018.

None

gjopen

["https://www.apnews.com/a4fd90bb573744729e6f82a58ecf6364", "https://www.stanford.edu/group/sjir/pdf/journalism_real_final_v2.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/10/19/sensationalized-news-is-fueling-tension-over-areas-disputed-between-iraqis-and-kurds/", "https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/921388362191331330/photo/1", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/600352", "https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/10/274839.htm", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41693143", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597818", "https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/abadi-orders-armed-groups-police-leave-kirkuk/", "https://www.cfr.org/blog/iraq-kurds-and-me-what-went-wrong-kirkuk?utm_medium=social_earned&amp;utm_source=fb&amp;utm_campaign=blog&amp;utm_term=iraq-the-kurds-and-me-what-went-wrong-in-kirkuk&amp;utm_content=102317", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/10/20/iraq-fighting-disputed-territories-kills-civilians", "http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-iraq-kurdish-fighting-20171020-story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/599188", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kirkuk-fall/iranian-commander-issued-stark-warning-to-iraqi-kurds-over-kirkuk-idUSKBN1CP2CW?il=0", "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/PITF_Atrocities.codebook.1.1B1.pdf", "https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1929661654028199&amp;id=1398672927127077", "http://www.uniraq.org/index.php?option=com_k2&amp;view=item&amp;id=8056:un-expresses-concern-about-reports-of-violence-in-tuz-khurmatu-in-kirkuk&amp;Itemid=605&amp;lang=en", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597953", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-10-16/iraqi-kurds-say-federal-forces-attack-near-disputed-kirkuk", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57917", "http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/201020171", "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597818", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597031", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-clash/iraqi-forces-complete-kirkuk-province-takeover-after-clashes-with-kurds-idUSKBN1CP0PT?il=0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-15

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/606

False

2015-12-04

Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?

binary

The Export-Import Bank's authorization expired on 1 July, but proponents of the bank are working to get it re-authorized (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/01/business/international/though-charter-is-expiring-export-import-bank-will-keep-its-doors-open.html , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/us/politics/us-export-import-bank-teetering-on-edge.html , http://thehill.com/policy/finance/247953-house-gop-draws-first-in-ex-im-showdown ). Legislation re-authorizing the bank must be signed into law by the President before taking effect.

2015-12-07

gjopen

["http://www.seattletimes.com/business/highway-bill-compromise-would-revive-export-import-bank/", "http://spacenews.com/ex-im-reauthorization-budget-deal-herald-a-hopefully-saner-u-s-congress/", "http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/260884-obama-signs-two-week-highway-bill", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52777", "http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/washingtonbureau/2015/12/highway-deal-good-for-business-except-for-big.html", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/260118-week-ahead-crunch-time-for-highway-talks", "http://www.mckinsey.com/about_us/what_we_do", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKCN0SM2A520151028", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/27/usa-congress-exim-vote-idUSL1N12R3GJ20151027", "http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2015/12/congress-votes-reauthorize-ex-im-bank?et_cid=4982252&amp;et_rid=54137940&amp;type=headline", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/03/obama-to-sign-new-highway-bill-that-revives-exim-bank-on-friday.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-03/house-passes-five-year-305-billion-u-s-highway-funding-plan", "https://www.stratfor.com/about", "http://spacenews.com/ex-im-reauthorization-budget-deal-herald-a-hopefully-saner-u-s-congress/#sthash.YsnjqPek.dpuf", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/262076-senate-propels-ex-im-renewal-to-obamas-desk", "http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/261633-ryan-foresees-good-majority-support-for-highway-bill", "http://www.saic.com/about/about-saic/", "http://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/schumer-highway-bill-will-include-export-import-bank-reauthorization/article_d16e8b90-9856-11e5-b3d0-5b3587d57c5f.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/01/usa-congress-transportation-idUSL1N13Q2VH20151201#XermMvUWQ8oAj95A.97", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/262171-obama-signs-305b-highway-bill", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/export-import-bank-israel-palestinians-216165", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/senate-transportation-package-ex-im-renewal-216420", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/signed-legislation", "http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/scheduling/261322-this-week", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52797"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-01

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5

True

2016-09-30

Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?

binary

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 30 September 2016. A Spanish Minister had not won a vote of confidence as of that date and negotiations over government formation continued (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/world/europe/spain-socialists-sanchez-rajoy.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/turmoil-hits-spains-socialist-party-amid-government-stand-off-1475165183" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). Spain is expected to hold parliamentary elections again on 26 June 2016, after elections held in December 2015 produced a fragmented parliament that failed to approve several nominated governments (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8373d826-161b-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/world/europe/king-felipe-spain-dissolves-parliament-new-elections.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). To form a government, a Prime Minister (referred to in the constitution as the President of the Government) must win a vote of confidence in Spain's parliament (See Part IV, Section 99 of the <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Spain_2011.pdf?lang=en" target="_blank">Spanish Constitution</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/193" target="_blank">Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106" target="_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183" target="_blank">In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?</a>

2016-10-04

gjopen

["http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/09/04/483083/Spain-Mariano-Rajoy-attempts-formation-government-election", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/314958", "http://aa.com.tr/en/europe/messy-nomination-scandal-rocks-spain-s-ruling-party/644120", "http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/08/29/actualidad/1472463143_105712.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37237984", "https://euobserver.com/beyond-brussels/134826", "http://nyti.ms/2bYF5cX", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poll-suggests-vote-solve-spains-problem-42036292", "http://www.thelocal.es/20160828/rajoy-says-forming-new-government-a-wish", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-idUSKCN11418V?il=0", "https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/873-160827132841-rajoy-says-new-government-more-a-wish-than-a-fact", "http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/spains-regional-elections-reaffirm-rajoy-in-galicia/Acting", "http://www.dw.com/en/spanish-pm-rajoy-loses-bid-to-form-new-govt/a-19524113", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/world/europe/spain-government-mariano-rajoy.html?_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-idUSKCN1181AB?il=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq11.&amp;quot", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/spanish-socialists-turn-on-sanchez-edging-rajoy-closer-to-power", "http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/220772/spain%E2%80%99s-socialists-say-no-to-rajoy-as-pm", "https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/878-160829135138-sanchez-confirms-psoe-no-after-meeting-rajoy", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-28/rajoy-seals-pact-with-ciudadanos-ahead-of-spain-confidence-vote", "http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-spain-politics-deadlock-snap-story.html", "https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/878-160829135138-sanchez-confirms-psoe-no-after-meeting-rajoy#636", "http://www.dw.com/en/december-election-beckons-as-mps-scupper-pm-rajoys-bid-to-form-government/a-19517110", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/spains-rajoy-braces-for-second-confidence-vote-in-parliament-1472816776", "http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21706439-stubborn-socialists-are-blocking-mariano-rajoy-forming-centre-right-government-spain-may-be"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/216

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41708357", "https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/10/taliban-overruns-2-districts-in-southern-afghanistan.php", "https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/unama_protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_quarterly_report_1_january_to_30_september_2017_-_english.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/633

True

2018-12-14

Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?

binary

Whether the House of Commons will approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union is object of a great deal of uncertainty and speculation (<a href = "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/eu-emergency-no-deal-talks-mps-vote-down-may-brexit-deal"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/cfa9ca0c-ecf1-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/642eb4c4-e808-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). The House of Commons approving a revised withdrawal agreement will not count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 15 December 2018. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.}

2018-12-17

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-11-30

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1051

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkey-s-pkk-conflict-death-toll", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkeys-pkk-conflict-kills-almost-3000-two-years", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/world/europe/turkey-new-york-case.html?action=click&amp;contentCollection=Europe&amp;module=RelatedCoverage&amp;region=Marginalia&amp;pgtype=article", "http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/TR/OHCHR_South-East_TurkeyReport_10March2017.pdf#sthash.c6fifoZ6.dpuf", "https://www.google.ch/amp/s/globalriskinsights.com/2017/12/turkey-2018-political-outlook/amp/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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["2017-10-13", 0.005], ["2017-10-13", 0.005], ["2017-10-13", 0.005], ["2017-10-14", 0.005], ["2017-10-14", 0.005], ["2017-10-15", 0.005], ["2017-10-15", 0.005], ["2017-10-15", 0.005], ["2017-10-16", 0.005], ["2017-10-16", 0.005], ["2017-10-16", 0.005], ["2017-10-17", 0.005], ["2017-10-17", 0.01], ["2017-10-18", 0.01], ["2017-10-18", 0.01], ["2017-10-18", 0.01], ["2017-10-19", 0.01], ["2017-10-19", 0.01], ["2017-10-20", 0.01], ["2017-10-20", 0.01], ["2017-10-20", 0.01], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-21", 0.01], ["2017-10-22", 0.01], ["2017-10-23", 0.01], ["2017-10-23", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-28", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 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0.005], ["2017-12-23", 0.005], ["2017-12-23", 0.005], ["2017-12-23", 0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2018-01-01", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/621

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1077

True

2018-11-06

Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be re-elected this November?

binary

Sen. Claire McCaskill is seeking re-election to the United States Senate on 6 November 2018. Attorney General Josh Hawley currently leads the Republican field (<a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2018-11-07

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-03-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/900

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/624

True