Datasets:

YuehHanChen

/

forecasting_raw

like 2

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will Russia and Egypt sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal?

binary

Egypt and Russia are in discussions to establish a Russian industrial zone at Port Said on the Suez Canal (<a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/12/c_136436144.htm"target="_blank">Xinhua Net</a>, <a href = "https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL4N1ME2UT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.rt.com/business/368167-egypt-russian-industrial-zone/"target="_blank">RT News</a>, <a href = "https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/09/06/establishment-russian-industrial-zone-postponed-early-2018/"target="_blank">Daily News Egypt</a>, <a href = "http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/egypt-and-russia-egypt-s-role-russia-might-increase-not-necessarily-1195223955"target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Russia and Egypt did not sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-11

gjopen

["https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/12/13/first-phase-russian-industrial-zone-implementation-starting-next-month/", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36333/More-than-30B-Russian-deals-expected-during-Putin%E2%80%99s-visit", "https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/agreement", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/putin-visit-egypt-week-51646133", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1206931/middle-east", "http://www.europe.easybranches.com/bulgaria/Russia-will-Build-the-First-Nuclear-Power-Plant-in-Egypt-145002", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/640233", "https://en.el-balad.com/2359519", "http://cementegypt.com/en/category-%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA/entry-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%B3.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637962", "http://www.nileinternational.net/en/?p=84823", "http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/56354", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/285438/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt,-Russia-sign-protocol-to-resume-MoscowCairo-.aspx", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36091/Egyptian-Russian-industrial-city-project-to-be-announced-during-Putin", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/463-before-1-january-2018-will-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-reach-an-agreement-on-payment-of-the-uk-s-outstanding-liabilities-to-the-eu", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36439/Sisi-aims-for-more-Russian-investment-in-SCZone", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mada_Masr", "http://www.egyptindependent.com/russian-industrial-zone-construction-works-begin-2018-sca-chairman/", "https://www.madamasr.com/en/2017/12/11/news/u/egypt-left-empty-handed-after-putin-visit/", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/12/c_136818164.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-russia/putin-egypts-sisi-discuss-restart-of-flights-sign-nuclear-deal-idUSKBN1E51BR", "http://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/121824?lang=en-us", "http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/56355", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36744/What-you-need-to-know-about-Russian-Industrial-Zone-in", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/639672"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/683

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles?

binary

Amazon completed its first drone delivery in the U.K., the debut of its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) shipping service (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/14/amazon-claims-first-successful-prime-air-drone-delivery"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>). U.S. commercial drone rules were finalized at the end of August 2016 (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/uas/media/Part_107_Summary.pdf"target = "_blank">FAA</a>). Among other things, they require operators to maintain visual line of site with the drones (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=20515"target = "_blank">FAA</a>, <a href = "http://fortune.com/2016/06/21/drone-faa-rules-commercial-business/"target = "_blank">Fortune</a>). Since passing the regulation, U.S. regulators have been granting waivers for companies to test drone delivery (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waivers_granted/"target = "_blank">FAA</a>). 7-Eleven, which became the first major company to use drones for deliveries in the U.S.,did so without a waiver because its drone operators maintained line of site for short range delivery (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/20/7-eleven-beats-google-and-amazon-to-the-first-regular-commercial-drone-delivery-service-in-the-us.html"target = "_blank">CNBC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration did not grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-08

gjopen

["https://www.expouav.com/news/latest/perfect-union-us-regulations-trend-toward-coexistence-uavs-aircraft/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/25/amazon-to-test-drone-delivery-uk-government", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waiver_safety_explanation_guidelines/", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/airports_participating_in_laanc/", "http://insideunmannedsystems.com/amazon-gets-permission-to-test-delivery-drones-outdoors/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/amazon-s-dream-of-drone-deliveries-get-closer-with-trump-order", "https://www.recode.net/2017/2/9/14462390/trump-freeze-regulation-faa-drone-delivery", "http://www.precisionhawk.com/media/topic/faa-grants-precisionhawk-bvlos-waiver/", "https://www.retail-week.com/topics/technology/amazons-innovation-boss-on-building-autonomous-drones/7025959.article", "http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/09/22/drone-hits-army-helicopter/", "https://jrupprechtlaw.com/amazon-drone-delivery-3-major-legal-problems-amazon-prime-air", "http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&amp;Sect2=HITOFF&amp;p=1&amp;u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&amp;r=20&amp;f=G&amp;l=50&amp;co1=AND&amp;d=PTXT&amp;s1=%22Amazon+Technologies%22&amp;OS=%22Amazon+Technologies%22&amp;RS=%22Amazon+Technologies%22", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/focus_area_pathfinder/", "http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/applied-aviation-research-center-precisionhawk-continue-uas-collaboration", "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/10/11/2017-21878/request-for-emergency-processing-of-collection-of-information-by-the-office-of-management-and-budget", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/10/faa_gives_amazon_permission_to_test_delivery_drones_in_the_u_s.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/06/27/drones-would-get-rules-deliveries-traffic-management-under-house-bill/428836001/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/581785", "https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2017-23746.pdf", "http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2017/11/28/amazon-hq-2-nevada-skies-drones-faa-pilot-program/902286001/", "http://fortune.com/2017/10/05/amazon-delivery-service-ups-fedex/", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_integration_pilot_program/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-to-test-federal-local-sharing-of-drone-regulation-1508320807", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/delivery-by-drone-switzerland-tests-it-in-populated-areas/2017/09/28/27cc04c2-a48a-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_story.html?utm_term=.04eaecf1e31e", "https://www.wired.com/story/switzerlands-getting-a-delivery-network-for-blood-toting-drones/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-01-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379

True

2018-05-25

Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass?

binary

There is growing discussion regarding the repeal of Ireland's Eighth Amendment, which bans most abortions (<a href = "http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1983/ca/8/enacted/en/print"target="_blank">Irish Statute Book</a>, <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/eoghan-murphy-abortion-a-matter-for-a-woman-and-her-doctor-1.3328568"target="_blank">Irish Times</a>). Prior to the referendum, the government will publish a bill outlining the exact text of the referendum (<a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/abortion-wording-needs-to-be-decided-by-february-for-june-vote-1.3325728"target="_blank">Irish Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43129019"target="_blank">BBC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> A referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-referendum"target="_blank">Eighth Amendment passed</a>. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 25 May 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-05-29

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-03-07

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/896

True

2017-01-20

Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017?

binary

This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 20 January 2017 <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, which sets rules for trade between the United States and eleven other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, was signed in February 2016 (<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/The_Trans-Pacific_Partnership_trade_deal:_An_overview" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>). In recent months, the deal has come under scrutiny as both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton criticized the effects of free trade on American manufacturing (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/business/obama-plans-another-appeal-for-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). President Obama hopes the deal will be ratified before the end of his term, but Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell has ruled out a vote during the Obama presidency (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-makes-last-ditch-push-for-vote-on-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal-1473804821" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/29/mcconnell-the-trans-pacific-partnership-is-dead-until-a-president-revives-it/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279" target="_blank">Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/18-will-negotiations-on-the-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-ttip-be-completed-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?</a>

2017-01-20

gjopen

["http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/text.pdf", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4OPEeivZm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-china-apec-idUSKBN13D0BI", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-2017/www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohr83SZB", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-peru-idUSKBN13626H?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-peacetalks-idUSKCN12I0O2?il=0", "https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/trump-win-is-the-only-way-to-stop-tpp-catastrophe", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohp7Y86o", "http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/ratifying-pacific-trade-pact-not-on-vietnam-assembly-agenda-1.434792", "http://highlandcountypress.com/Content/In-The-News/In-The-News/Article/Senators-to-Obama-Trans-Pacific-Partnership-shouldn-t-be-considered-until-renegotiated/2/20/35152", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-wealth-more-jobs-but-not-for-everyone-what-fuels-the-backlash-on-trade.html?emc=edit_ta_20160928&amp;nlid=70183565&amp;ref=cta&amp;_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-2017/www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4OPEeivZm", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/tpp-trade-deal-trump-obama-trip/", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohr83SZB", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summmit-froman-idUSKBN13D2HG?il=0", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-pledge-dump-tpp-just-first-step-anti-trade-n687191", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-2017/www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4Ohp7Y86o", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-10-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank&quot;">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1010

True

2016-12-31

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017?

binary

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified India as the 19th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/india" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/251" target="_blank">Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/245" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/211" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?</a> This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in India before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-03-30

gjopen

["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2015/05/05/india-s-gujarat-faces-atrocity-risks-despite-new-development-efforts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_India", "http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-witnesses-lowest-civilians-deaths-in-25-years-due-to-extremism-report-1442701", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/army-to-deploy-remote-controlled-guns-at-loc-to-take-on-infiltrators/story-HDBgHHXgSsYzvyDeGOqDmO.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/299647", "http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/currency-ban-has-ended-terror-funding-stone-pelting-says-manohar-parrikar-1625527", "http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/database/indiafatalities.htm", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-plans-five-layer-lock-at-Pakistan-border/articleshow/51770756.cms", "http://mha.nic.in/sites/upload_files/mha/files/AR(E)1516.pdf", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2016/01/11/2016-wikisurvey-results", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/j-k-civilian-deaths-in-terrorism-related-violence-down-by-90/story-bRqpKWB56KmeziiRjbNXBO.html", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?chart=casualties&amp;casualties_type=b&amp;casualties_max=&amp;dtp2=all&amp;country=92", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-08-09

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/256

True

2017-04-30

Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?

binary

In a June 2016 tax reform blueprint, House Republicans proposed a “border adjustment tax,” a tax levied on imported goods (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtodd/2017/01/17/what-is-a-border-adjustment-tax/#3dc8e88d1d47"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). Such a tax is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others , but has been criticized by President Trump and other leaders (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/10/what-is-a-border-adjusted-tax-mean-and-will-it-happen.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-18/trump-is-right-border-adjustment-tax-is-complicated"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2016/12/08/border-adjustability-is-already-fueling-tax-reform-controversy/#3d4407c942bb"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). A border adjustment tax on specific countries or industries will count. The tax does not need to take effect or become law for a "yes” resolution. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/370"target="_blank">whether Russia and Cuba will announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377-before-30-april-2017-will-the-u-s-provide-notice-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta"target="_blank">whether the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA.</a>} <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-05-02

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-exclusive-idUSKBN1622J5", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/15/donald-trump-tax-reform-gop/", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/322971-flake-becomes-latest-gop-senator-to-raise-concerns-about-border-tax-proposal", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/us/politics/trump-border-tax-import-koch.html", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2017_schedule.htm", "https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/donald-trump-signals-move-to-border-adjustment-tax-1.2989769", "http://fortune.com/2016/11/07/us-tariff-chinese-steel/", "http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/donald-trump-signals-timing-of-border-tax-20170228-gumz7e#ixzz4ayfSF9wX", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-tax-idUKKBN16Q0AD", "http://www.wsj.com/graphics/border-tax/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-probe-could-hurt-donald-trumps-clout-in-congress-1490053226", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/25/republicans-switch-focus-tax-healthcare-plans-collapse/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/02/23/us-uk-must-target-law-firms-facilitating-african-corruption/#f008eba12289", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade-idUSKBN168397", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/03/06/congress-should-focus-on-proven-pro-growth-tax-reform-not-the-border-adjustment-tax/#19c34f0f8366", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-28/ryan-said-to-forge-unexpected-alliance-with-bannon-on-border-tax", "https://www.axios.com/trump-econ-advisor-no-go-on-house-border-adjustment-tax-2282642439.html", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/25/republicans-taxes-healthcare-bill/", "http://www.house.gov/legislative/", "https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-24/trump-signals-support-for-border-adjustment-tax-plan-pushed-by-house-republicans", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/news/economy/tax-reform-mnuchin/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/us/politics/trump-concedes-health-law-overhaul-is-unbelievably-complex.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=a-lede-package-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/news/economy/border-adjustment-tax-trump-trump-congress/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/opinion/the-case-for-a-border-adjusted-tax.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_disjunction"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-02-03

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405

True

2016-04-29

Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?

binary

Iranian conservatives include both traditional and hardline camps (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/04/15/irans-conservative-consensus-on-the-nuclear-deal/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>). Hardliners have held most of the seats in Iran's parliament, the Majles, since 2004, when they overturned a reformist majority (<a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/jun/15/irans-parliamentary-elections-february-2016-similar-turkey" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/13/how-to-get-reelected-if-you-are-an-iranian-mp/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/parliament" target = "_blank">Iran primer</a>). The election is scheduled for 25 February 2016.

2016-05-02

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/213530", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-parliament-in-the-balance-in-election-run-off/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/04/29/1061353/voting-underway-in-iran-s-run-off-parliamentary-elections", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/iran-elections-president-rouhanis-moderate-allies-win-second-round-2777397/", "http://www.eurasiareview.com/12052016-the-second-iranian-elections-analysis/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2016/apr/22/iran-runoff-parliamentary-elections-tehranbureau", "http://www.dw.com/en/reformists-ahead-in-irans-parliamentary-elections/a-19226319", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/world/middleeast/iran-ali-larijani.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/179659", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Review", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XO0RK", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/ZBup7L4iszUFBYlTLs2NXO/Irans-moderates-make-modest-gains-in-runoff-election.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-start-idUSKCN0XQ09H", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36178276", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/01052016", "http://irannewsupdate.com/report-analysis/23-sham-election/2711-election-runoff-in-iran-but-to-what-end.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-assembly-experts-chairmanship-jannati-amini-vote.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36178276", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/khamenei-hezbollah-condemn-oic-statement-saudi.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-12-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/99

True

2016-03-31

Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

binary

<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>According to the constitution of Brazil, President Rousseff would be impeached if the Chamber of Deputies authorizes, by a two-thirds vote, legal proceedings to be initiated against her (<a href="http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2006/teams/willr3/const.htm" target="_blank">Brazilian Constitution</a>). President Rousseff faces a continuing economic slump, a bribery scandal affecting members of her party, and new legal claims that she broke the nation's fiscal responsibility law (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/17/world/americas/brazilians-protest-to-urge-president-dilma-rousseffs-ouster.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/11/us-brazil-rousseff-impeachment-idUSKCN0QG0BS20150811" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9429ae3c-44f4-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10478" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target = "_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62-will-there-be-a-new-king-of-saudi-arabia-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?</a>

2016-04-01

gjopen

["http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-embattled-president-dilma-rousseff-says-she-will-never-resign-2016-3", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/20/brazil-corruption-impeachment-probe", "http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-biggest-party-dumps-rousseff-2016-3", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d39a416-f222-11e5-a609-e9f2438ee05b.html#ixzz43xQxmiiS", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/brazil-president-dilma-rousseff-closer-impeachment-coalition-partner-quits", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-president-of-brazil-resists-calls-for-her-resignation.html?_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0WU1AC", "https://apple.news/AkV9gJvGwQVijQ_M88Wp_6Q", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt3ouQKFN9Q", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/30/rolls-royce-cooperate-brazil-investigation-petrobras-bribery", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/03/economist-explains-16", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeachment-vote.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-president-of-brazil-resists-calls-for-her-resignation.html", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&amp;sl=pt&amp;u=http://www.blogdozedefatima.com.br/%3Fp%3D8247&amp;prev=search", "http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-231B-10828", "https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/03/dilma-rousseff-pt-coup-golpe-petrobras-lavajato/", "http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/78444109/unaoil-and-trace-how-the-ahsanis-fooled-the-world", "https://twitter.com/elizondogabriel/status/714895908438204416?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&amp;sl=pt&amp;u=http://f7online.com.br/2016/03/29/lula-ve-democracia-em-risco-e-diz-dilma-resistira-sem-pmdb/&amp;prev=search", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-president-dilma-rousseff-reiterates-that-she-wont-resign-1458677495", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/tablet/wp/2016/03/25/2016/03/25/biggest-story-you-missed-brazil-is-in-trouble-and-the-olympics-are-just-months-away", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35914461"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/22

True

2016-09-30

Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?

binary

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30/2016. In the wake of protests over elections held in 2009, the government of Iran began blocking access to Facebook and Twitter. Some Iranian government officials use these social media channels, and many citizens access them illegally through virtual private networks and other means, but the official ban remains in place (<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/social-media/12105631/Twitter-and-YouTube-unblocked-in-Iran-for-some-users-after-sanctions-lifted.html" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/4/iran-twitter-rouhaniinternetcensorship.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera America</a>, <a href="https://www.iranhumanrights.org/2015/05/officials-re-affirm-facebook-blocked/" target="_blank">International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/179" target="_blank">Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136" target="_blank">Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/197" target="_blank">Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?</a>

2016-10-04

gjopen

["https://cyber.law.harvard.edu/node/99511", "http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950222001323", "http://phys.org/news/2016-08-iran-rounds-social-network-users.html", "http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-pokemon-go-ban/3452601.html", "http://time.com/4338539/iran-headscarves-model-arrests/", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-saudi-arabia-twitter-social-media-psychological-war.html", "http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-social-media-foreign-move-data/27764252.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/iranian-models-arrested-for-posting-pictures-without-headscarves/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/social-media/12105631/Twitter-and-YouTube-unblocked-in-Iran-for-some-users-after-sanctions-lifted.html", "http://www.techtimes.com/articles/161955/20160530/iran-orders-foreign-social-media-and-messaging-apps-to-store-data-within-its-borders.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_YouTube#.C2.A0Iran", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36302405", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/6LHhwsf9SGah9urkThewBO/Iran-demands-social-media-hand-over-data-on-its-citizens.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/265126", "http://www.catchnews.com/world-news/operation-spider-2-iranian-models-find-their-instagram-accounts-hacked-by-revolutionary-guards-1458311887.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/07/21/netizen_report_some_iranian_hardliners_want_the_government_to_stop_blocking.html", "http://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_78504588/iran-immer-mehr-ignorieren-verbote-von-facebook-und-twitter.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/iran-destroys-100000-corrupting-satellite-dishes-160724202722493.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21699462-supreme-leader-clipping-wings-reformist-president-whos", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198-will-iran-officially-lift-its-ban-on-either-facebook-or-twitter-before-1-october-2016/www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/298773", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/298773", "http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/4/iran-twitter-rouhaniinternetcensorship.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-10

0.0

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["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-19", 0.0], ["2016-09-20", 0.0], ["2016-09-20", 0.0], ["2016-09-21", 0.0], ["2016-09-21", 0.0], ["2016-09-21", 0.0], ["2016-09-22", 0.0], ["2016-09-22", 0.0], ["2016-09-23", 0.0], ["2016-09-24", 0.0], ["2016-09-24", 0.0], ["2016-09-25", 0.0], ["2016-09-25", 0.0], ["2016-09-26", 0.0], ["2016-09-27", 0.0], ["2016-09-27", 0.0], ["2016-09-28", 0.0], ["2016-09-28", 0.0], ["2016-09-28", 0.0], ["2016-09-29", 0.0], ["2016-09-29", 0.0], ["2016-09-30", 0.0], ["2016-09-30", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198

True

2017-11-01

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Tunisia between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?

binary

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Violence against civilians, or Remote violence; and 'FATALITIES' is greater than or equal to 1. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released. If a qualifying event is recorded, the question will be closed retroactively with the date of the first event as the end date of the question. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2017-11-07

gjopen

["http://af.reuters.com/article/tunisiaNews/idAFL8N1MQ16A?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=tunisiaNews", "http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1MQ16A?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=tunisiaNews"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/641

True

2016-02-02

Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

binary

<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>More than 90% of California is experiencing a 'severe drought' or worse (<a href = "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA" target = "_blank">Drought Monitor</a>). On 1 April 2015, Governor Jerry Brown imposed California's first mandatory water restrictions, requiring a 25% reduction in urban water use until the end of February 2016 (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647994-why-golden-state-so-bad-managing-water-price-wrong" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/4.1.15_Executive_Order.pdf" target = "_blank">CA Executive Order 1</a>). On 13 November 2015, a further executive order ruled that if drought conditions persist beyond January 2016, water restrictions will be extended until 31 October 2016 (<a href = "https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/11.13.15_EO_B-36-15.pdf" target = "_blank">CA Executive Order 2</a>). Any extension of restrictions on urban water use will count, even if there are modifications to those restrictions.

2016-02-08

gjopen

["http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/020216_7_proposed_emer_reg_text.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/comments010616/index.shtml", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/econ_impact_report_012216.pdf", "http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-california-20160121-htmlstory.html", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/draft_supplier_tiers_012216.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/emergency_reg_digest_conserv_012216.pdf", "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA", "http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article56090190.html", "http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/.html/wat_table_of_contents.html", "http://www.ocregister.com/articles/snowpack-701151-water-california.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21689612-even-torrential-rain-brought-el-ni-o-may-not-end-californias-drought-all-leaves-are", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/press_room/press_releases/2016/pr2316_reg_extension.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/notice_prop_rulemaking_conserv_012216.pdf", "http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/02/02/californians-miss-water-conservation-targets-for-third-straight-month/", "http://www.wateronline.com/doc/californians-debate-easing-water-restrictions-0001", "http://www.environmental-expert.com/companies/the-shibatani-group-inc-41206", "http://www.swrcb.ca.gov/press_room/press_releases/2016/pr2316_reg_extension.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/publications_forms/publications/factsheets/docs/emergency_reg_fs011916.pdf", "http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/water-officials-vote-extend-california-drought-emergency-36682284", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-set-to-extend-curbs-on-water-use-1454460453", "http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/const-toc.html", "http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-californians-have-their-eye-water-and-jobs-wary", "http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php?getall=1", "http://www.abc10.com/story/news/local/california/2016/01/28/drought-water-restrictions-to-continue/79491236/", "http://www.sfgate.com/drought/article/California-water-limits-might-be-eased-slightly-6762776.php"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-01-12

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/111

True

2018-01-01

Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017?

binary

In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (<a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/un-government-declare-famine-in-parts-of-south-sudan/3731713.html"target="_blank">Voa News</a>), and other countries in Africa, including Somalia, are facing the possibility of famine in the near future (<a href = "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning System</a>, <a href = "http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-in-action/stories/stories-detail/en/c/883197/"target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-famine-idUSKBN1AP2IT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href = "http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean"target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39039255"target="_blank">BBC</a>. Both the declaration and the famine need to occur in 2017. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The UN did not declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["http://news.trust.org/item/20170822185245-7hu1f/", "http://humanitariannews.org/20171207/somalia-security-council-press-statement-somalia-security-conference-inaugural-somalia-part", "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/map-update-2-al-shabaabs-humanitarian-response", "https://theintercept.com/2017/11/16/u-n-security-counil-saudi-arabia-blockade-yemen-famine-iran/", "https://unsom.unmissions.org/somalia-still-under-threat-famine-warns-top-un-official", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsId=57646#.WcVXvthOmEc", "http://www.fews.net/", "http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/somalia_humanitarian_snapshot_-_september_2017.pdf", "https://sudantribune.com/spip.php?iframe&amp;page=imprimable&amp;id_article=24623", "http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-civil-military-working-group-report-august-2017", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/food-security-outlook/october-2017", "https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc12748.doc.htm", "https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/04/economist-explains-0", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=39113#.WZ_0UncjFAY", "https://web.archive.org/web/20171029181454/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/28/us/politics/aumf-congress-niger.html", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia", "http://humanitariannews.org/20171108/somalia-somalia-humanitarian-snapshot-07-november-2017Twenty", "https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-humanitarian-fund-dashboard-2017-10-november-2017", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/key-message-update/november-2017", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi-un/u-n-chief-faced-funding-cut-off-fatwa-risk-over-saudis-sources-idUSKCN0YT2UT", "http://www.ipsnews.net/2017/07/east-africas-poor-rains-hunger-worsened-crops-scorched-livestock-dead/", "http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/how-aid-cash-not-goods-averted-famine-somalia", "https://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2015-000134-som", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-famine/u-n-urges-action-to-avert-famine-threatening-20-million-people-worldwide-idUSKBN1AP2IT"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-22

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/564

True

2020-01-01

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?

binary

Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-q-a.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1054

True

2016-12-11

Will The Birth of a Nation be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama?

binary

This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 11 December 2016. Birth of Nation was not nominated for "Best Motion Picture". <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2017-nominees-winners-list-20161212-story.html" target = "_blank">(LA Times)</a> <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> <i>The Birth of a Nation</i> tells the story of Nat Turner, who led an uprising of slaves in Virginia in 1831 (<a href="http://www.foxsearchlight.com/thebirthofanation/" target="_blank">Fox Searchlight Pictures</a>, <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_birth_of_a_nation_2016/" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4196450/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). Nominations for the 74th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be announced on 12 December 2016 at 8:00am EST (<a href="http://www.goldenglobes.com/award-rules%E2%80%A2entry-forms" target="_blank">Golden Globe Awards</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification (344)" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/295" target="_blank">whether the book "Superforecasting" will be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017</a>.}

2016-12-12

gjopen

["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Birth_of_a_Nation", "http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/film/the-birth-of-a-nation-film-review-don-t-fall-for-saint-nate-a3416431.html", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/golden-globes-film-nominations-2017/sort/recent/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/395582", "http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/critics-choice-awards-2016-film-nomination-complete-list-951822", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38291774", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2017/picture/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-11-04

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/344

True

2018-07-01

Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?

binary

For more information on the accession process see: <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en"target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/check-current-status/index_en.htm"target="_blank">European Commission</a>. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-06

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-05-09

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/944

True

2018-01-01

Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?

binary

The Schengen Area allows citizens of participating countries to cross each others' borders without border checks (<a href="http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/index_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/five-things-you-need-know-about-schengen-agreement-332976" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="http://www.ecfr.eu/specials/scorecard/schengen_flash_scorecard" target="_blank">European Council on Foreign Relations</a>). Some EU member states do not participate, but so far no country that has joined the area has subsequently withdrawn. A list of Schengen states can be found <a href="http://www.schengenvisainfo.com/schengen-visa-countries-list/" target="_blank">here</a>. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106" target="_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/149" target="_blank">Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?</a> There were no official announcements that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-idUSL5N18M22Q", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-leaders-urged-stick-together-9753827", "http://murciatoday.com/schengen-agreement-suspended-for-a-week-on-spanish_french-border._11465-a.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/gitrep-11may16pm/", "http://www.praguemonitor.com/2016/05/10/intmin-border-checks-odds-eu-legislation", "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/02/07-prolongation-border-controls/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/231141", "http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/10/16/economist-austria-leave-european-union-brexit/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-residence-permits-schengen-visa-free-viktor-orban/", "http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-europe-trump-20170203-story.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/367971", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-16/merkel-says-europe-controls-its-own-fate-in-rebuff-to-trump", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69a269f6-1825-11e6-bb7d-ee563a5a1cc1.html#axzz48Xd2CV3J", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/13/germany-border-crackdown-deals-blow-to-schengen-system", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-eu-idUSKCN12Q1OH", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/199-will-the-eu-lift-visa-requirements-for-turkish-citizens-before-july-2016", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13194723", "http://europa.eu/rapid/midday-express-04-05-2016.htm", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/10/gitrep-9may16pm/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/266879", "http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/news/european-parliament-study-outlines-the-%E2%82%AC170bn-cost-of-dismantling-the-schengen-system.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-03

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/193

True

2016-07-18

Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?

binary

This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 20 July 2016 with an end date of 19 July 2016. On 19 July 2016, Donald Trump became the official nominee of the Republican party on the first vote (<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/07/19/delegates-ready-nominate-trump-roll-call-vote/87305640/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/19/politics/donald-trump-republican-nomination-2016-election/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). <br/> As the Republicans enter primary season, the nomination race remains tight and a brokered convention could be possible (<a href="http://time.com/4059030/republican-primary-calendar-2016-nomination-convention/" target="_blank">Time</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/12/what-happens-if-republicans-face-a-brokered-convention-explained/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). A candidate must receive the votes of 1,236 delegates (50%+1) in order to win the Republican party's nomination (<a href="https://gop.com/2016-gophq/event_schedule/?schedule_type=primary" target="_blank">GOP</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/81-who-will-win-the-republican-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/118-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-nomination-for-the-us-presidential-election/" target = "_blank">Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>

2016-07-20

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/25/donald-trump-virginia-republican-delegate-sues-to-avoid-voting-convention", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/19/the-brutal-numbers-behind-a-very-bad-month-for-donald-trump/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_fix-trumpnumbers-923am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/anti-donald-trump-forces-see-convention-coup-as-within-reach-1467839099", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/06/19/paul-ryan-its-not-my-job-to-tell-delegates-what-to-do/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_pp-ryandelegates-1013am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-delegate-revolt-224634", "http://www.politicususa.com/2016/07/06/gop-close-dumping-trump-coup-plotters-votes-nomination-chaos.html", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/meet-woman-who-could-take-down-donald-trump-n608956", "http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/437909/never-trump-dies-whimper", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/judge-va-trump-delegate-unbound-voting-him-rnc-n607461", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/07/11/federal-court-rules-virginia-cant-force-its-gop-convention-delegates-to-vote-for-trump/", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/republican-rules-delegates-trump/", "https://www.electionbettingodds.com/conv.html", "http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078841/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/13/your-definitive-guide-to-the-rnc-rules-committee-meeting/", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/republican-nomination", "http://gawker.com/how-is-donald-trump-going-to-quit-1782312998", "http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/is-it-legitimate-to-deny-donald-trump-the-nomination/490115/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/10/gitrep-9may16pm/", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/15/republicans-quash-last-ditch-attempt-to-stop-donald-trump-becoming-nominee", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/us/politics/donald-trump-and-rnc-see-common-foe-rogue-delegates.html?_r=0", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/05/26/trump_officially_clinches_nomination_ap_says.html", "http://goo.gl/Wd7B4v", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/donald-trump-cleveland-convention-225056", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/04/republican-delegate-revolt-grows-in-effort-to-sidetrack-trump-nomination.html", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/07/15/rnc_rules_committee_clears_path_for_trump_s_nomination.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-01-21

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123

True

2016-06-16

As of 1 June 2017, will a European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran?

binary

UPDATE 6/16/16: This has been voided. <a href="http://www.eihbank.de/en/contact/" target="_blank">EIH Bank</a>, headquartered in Hamburg, already owns branches in Tehran and Kish Island. Our question team is looking into whether a new question, which asks about European banks opening new branches or subsidiaries in Iran, is tractable. We appreciate the feedback from forecasters who brought this issue to our attention. Since many international sanctions were lifted in early 2016, Iran has been eager to have major international banks resume operations in its territory, and the US has encouraged banks to do so (<a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/611b7cb8935448959206ffab1c642ccf/us-again-tells-european-banks-trade-iran-ok" target="_blank">AP</a>), but banks remain wary (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-iran-idUSKCN0Y92WI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). European banks are banks whose headquarters are located in EU member states, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, or Liechtenstein. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/89" target="_blank">How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?</a>

None

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/iran-banks-idUSL8N19637F", "https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31798333/extremely-difficult-for-eu-to-work-with-trump-commissioner/#page1", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/254889", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/06/10/469855/Iran-bank-joins-euro-payment-system", "http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/05/03/463789/Woori-Bank-launches-service-desk-in-Iran--", "http://www.globaltradelawblog.com/2016/04/20/new-business-opportunities-in-iran-but-will-be-your-banker-non-u-s-banks-hesitant-to-process-lawful-iran-transactions-and-for-good-reason/", "https://www.mediobanca.com/en/about-us/locations/index.html", "http://www.eihbank.de/en/contact/", "http://www.gulf-times.com/story/497382/US-rebuffs-EU-bid-to-shield-banks-from-Iran-sancti", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016_timeline", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/asian-and-european-banks-are-still-shunning-iran--and-tehran-blames-the-us/2016/05/10/82a5a2c4-138e-11e6-8967-7ac733c56f12_story.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._sanctions_against_Iran", "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/doing-business-with-iran/frequently-asked-questions-on-doing-business-with-iran", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_(missile", "http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/small-banks-help-iran-handle-trade-payments", "http://theiranproject.com/blog/2016/01/21/worlds-biggest-bank-requests-to-set-up-branches-in-iran/", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52556208.cms", "http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/flying-the-too-friendly-skies-europe-76938/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/259575", "http://online-only-banks-review.toptenreviews.com/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Clearing_Union", "http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/23591.pdf", "http://theiranproject.com/blog/2015/10/29/ease-of-doing-business-index-shows-irans-progress-in-post-sanction-era/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-07/u-s-said-to-rebuff-eu-bid-to-shield-banks-from-iran-sanctions-ip59qkxe", "http://lawiniran.com/Report/Details/1120/Bank-Muscat-says-opening-Iran-office?lang=en"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-07

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/218

False

2017-03-15

Will Geert Wilders become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?

binary

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 15 March 2017 and Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party (PVV), has been ahead in the polls (<a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/741449/geert-wilders-freedom-party-election-polls-ahead-eu"target = "_blank">Express UK<a/>). If no government is formed after the March elections and subsequent elections are scheduled, the question will resolve as "no." _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353"target = "_blank">Ban Ki-moon will announce that he is running for president of South Korea</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/117-will-syria-hold-un-backed-elections-before-1-january-2018"target = "_blank">Syria will hold UN backed elections before 1 January 2018</a>.} <hr> As of 3 October, the Dutch government is still being formed, and a prime minister has not yet been decided. This question will be scored when a prime minister is announced. <hr> Geert Wilders did not become prime minister. (<a href = "http://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-officially-asked-to-form-new-dutch-government/"target="_blank">Politico</a>) This question closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 15 March 2017. </hr> <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-26

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-01-10

0.0

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["2017-03-15", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382

True

2016-12-31

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?

binary

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page. According to these criteria, Nigeria is already experiencing two episodes of mass killing: one perpetrated by Boko Haram, and another perpetrated by state security forces targeting alleged members or supporters of Boko Haram (<a href = "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/06/nigeria-horror-in-numbers/" target = "_blank">Amnesty International</a>). This question pertains to the risk of a new episode of mass killing. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Nigeria the country second most at risk for a new onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a "yes" answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">blog</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/128-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-burundi-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-ethiopia-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-myanmar-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a> This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Nigeria before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-03-30

gjopen

["https://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2016/10/11/Sheikh-Zakzaky-the-face-of-a-dangerous-Iranian-design-in-Africa.html", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/peaceful-pro-biafra-activists-killed-in-chilling-crackdown/", "http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483", "http://dailypost.ng/2016/09/26/kaduna-suspected-fulani-herdsmen-kill-two-fresh-attacks/", "http://www.standwithnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/NIgeria-Fractured-and-Forgotten.pdf", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel", "http://www.france24.com/en/20161101-ban-ki-moon-united-nations-south-sudan-juba-peacekeeping-commander", "http://icirnigeria.org/outlawed-shiites-allege-mass-killing-of-members/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/330871", "https://venturesafrica.com/standwithnigeria-report-says-rampaging-fulani-herdsmen-and-boko-haram-follow-similar-pattern/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/330871", "http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/nigeria-requested-us-intel-military-gear-fight-terror/story?id=23662022", "http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/31/report-nigeria-reinstates-general-implicated-in-mass-murder.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37642282", "https://www.naij.com/983666-fulani-herdsmen-go-rampage-burn-kill-locals-kaduna.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/338213", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/deconstructing-nigeria", "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data-2016/", "http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/11/senate-rejects-buharis-plan-take-30bn-loan/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36139388", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/world/2016/10/13/they-survived-boko-haram-now-millions-in-nigeria-face-a-new-threat-starvation/?wpisrc=al_alert-COMBO-exclusive%252Bnational%252Bworld", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/09/economist-explains-0?cid1=cust/ddnew/n/n/n/20160927n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email&amp;etear=dailydispatch", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-festival-idUSKCN11R0ZO?il=0", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nigerian-senate-refuses-30-billion-loan-plan-43222409", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/335373"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-08

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/156

True

2017-07-01

Will the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 exceed those in the second quarter of 2016?

binary

Anti-trust regulation, populism and a backlash against globalisation may be affecting appetites for dealmaking (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12757/waving-goodbye" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). Question will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and resolved based on open source reporting of Thomson Reuters' M&A deal value data for the second quarter of 2017. Announced global M&A deals reached a value of $839 billion in the second quarter of 2016, down 32.5 percent from the same period in 2015 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m-a-analysis-idUSKCN0ZF2YG" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/358" target="_blank">the end of day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017</a> or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356" target="_blank">the European Central Bank's January decision with respect to the deposit rate</a>.} According to <a href ="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m-a-idUSKBN19K37H"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 continued to decrease to $771 billion, and does not exceed Q2 2016. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-07-05

gjopen

["https://markets.ft.com/data/league-tables/tables-and-trends/mergers-and-acquisitions", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/global-ma-activity-may-drop-to-2-5-trillion-in-2017-report/articleshow/57035505.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-steel-m-a-global-idUSKBN17Z0VR", "https://www.mergermarket.com/pdf/MergermarketFinancialLeagueTableReport.Q12017.pdf", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/q2-2017-ma-remain-strong-continental-europe-uk-stalls/", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/latin-america-ma-rollercoaster-hits-latest-barrel-roll/#", "http://mergermarketgroup.com/publication/monthly-ma-insider-may-2017/#.WSwImTOB3-Z", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/asia-pacific-early-stage-ma-booming/#", "http://graphics.wsj.com/investment-banking-scorecard/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/505436", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/0e9afdce-cdb6-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/suntrust/2017/01/13/the-4-biggest-trends-in-mergers-and-acquisitions-for-2017/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-31/october-smashes-merger-records-as-companies-turn-to-megadeals", "https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/", "https://info.kpmg.us/ma-survey-2017.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m-a-firstquarter-idUSKBN1713AQ", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/ma-volatility-ahead-north-america/#", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-markets-m-a-idUSKBN161118", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/17/kraft-heinz-proposes-merger-deal-which-unilever-rejects.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/f2f18038-1465-11e7-b0c1-37e417ee6c76", "http://fortune.com/2016/12/26/tech-mergers-2017-donald-trump/", "https://www.paulweiss.com/practices/transactional/mergers-acquisitions/publications/ma-at-a-glance-may-2017?id=24330", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/videos/mergermarket-3554-deals-worth-dollar6785-billion-in-q1-2017/vp-BBzjgSR", "http://fn.dealogic.com/fn/MARank.htm", "http://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/images/insight/publications/2017/01/gtf/globaltransactions2017.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-12-20

0.0

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["2017-06-06", 0.69], ["2017-06-06", 0.7], ["2017-06-07", 0.7], ["2017-06-09", 0.7], ["2017-06-09", 0.7], ["2017-06-12", 0.7], ["2017-06-12", 0.7], ["2017-06-12", 0.7], ["2017-06-13", 0.7], ["2017-06-13", 0.7], ["2017-06-14", 0.7], ["2017-06-15", 0.7], ["2017-06-16", 0.7], ["2017-06-16", 0.7], ["2017-06-16", 0.7], ["2017-06-17", 0.7], ["2017-06-17", 0.7], ["2017-06-18", 0.7], ["2017-06-19", 0.7], ["2017-06-19", 0.7], ["2017-06-20", 0.7], ["2017-06-21", 0.7], ["2017-06-22", 0.7], ["2017-06-22", 0.7], ["2017-06-22", 0.7], ["2017-06-23", 0.7], ["2017-06-23", 0.7], ["2017-06-24", 0.7], ["2017-06-24", 0.7], ["2017-06-25", 0.7], ["2017-06-25", 0.68], ["2017-06-26", 0.68], ["2017-06-27", 0.68], ["2017-06-27", 0.68], ["2017-06-27", 0.68], ["2017-06-28", 0.68], ["2017-06-28", 0.68], ["2017-06-28", 0.68], ["2017-06-29", 0.68], ["2017-06-29", 0.66], ["2017-06-29", 0.655], ["2017-06-29", 0.655], ["2017-06-29", 0.65], ["2017-06-30", 0.65], ["2017-06-30", 0.65], ["2017-07-01", 0.65], ["2017-07-01", 0.65]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/371

True

2017-12-21

Will Catalan pro-independence parties hold a majority of seats after the upcoming regional elections?

binary

Examples of current and past pro-independence parties include the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDECat), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), Catalonia Yes (CatSi), and Democrats of Catalonia (DC). Regional elections are scheduled for 21 December 2017 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/27/world/europe/spain-catalonia-puigdemont.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia/sacked-catalonia-leader-turns-himself-in-polls-show-independence-strength-idUSKBN1D50CS"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Pro-independence parties <a href = "https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/cataluna.html"target="_blank">hold a majority of seats</a> after Catalan's regional elections. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 22 December 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2017-12-27

gjopen

["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-pro-independence-movement-what-its-like-carles-puigdemont-catalonians-vote-spain-a8099906.html", "https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/12/15/inenglish/1513333454_661556.html", "https://ig.ft.com/catalonia-poll-tracker/", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-catalonia-poll/catalan-separatists-to-lose-majority-in-tight-election-poll-idUKKBN1E40IM?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=topNews", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2015", "https://www.thelocal.es/20171215/latest-polls-show-catalan-separatists-could-lose-absolute-majority-in-vote", "https://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/encuesta-elecciones-cataluna-21d-4_220401_102.html", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/catalan-election-return-hung-parliament-poll-124139898--business.html", "http://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/enquesta-eleccions-catalunya-21d-1_218265_102.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/629831", "https://twitter.com/sgtastemakers/status/934791140443938816", "http://catalannews.com/politics/item/what-do-polls-say-about-the-catalan-election", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses", "https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21732537-much-hangs-catalan-election-may-settle-little-catalonia-prepares-vote-yet-again", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/catalonia-set-vote-separatists-jail-exile-171219203049892.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-28

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/773

True

2016-11-08

Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Rob Portman (R - OH) won his bid for reelection on November 8 against Democratic challenger Ted Strickland. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> Senator Rob Portman is facing former Governor Ted Strickland in the 2016 elections (<a href="http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/04/ted_strickland_seeks_five_us_s.html" target="_blank">Cleveland.com</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/04/the-top-10-senate-races-in-2016/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/177" target="_blank">Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/160" target="_blank">Which party will control the US House of Representatives after the November 2016 election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/159" target="_blank">Which party will control the US Senate after the November 2016 election?</a>

2016-11-16

gjopen

["http://www.ohio.com/news/politics/state/political-ad-buys-in-ohio-cancelled-as-outside-groups-see-portman-pulling-ahead-1.709272", "http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-ohio-senate-portman-vs-strickland", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/11/politics/florida-ohio-pennsylvania-senate-poll/", "http://link.washingtonpost.com/view/546d0c123b35d071228b77cf4nahm.5dof/7264fe76", "http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/10/things_are_looking_up_for_hill.html", "http://wvxu.org/post/both-strickland-and-portman-have-burdens-bear-ohio-senate-race#stream/0", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/oh/ohio_senate_portman_vs_strickland-5386.html", "http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/10/rob_portman_keeps_big_lead_in.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2016", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-portman-idUSKCN10Y0VC", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-chances-of-holding-the-senate-are-following-trump-downhill/", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/ohio/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2016#Polling_3", "http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-congress-senate", "http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/09/national_democrats_pull_more_m.html#incart_river_home", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/ohio-senate-ads-ted-strickland-super-pac-227542", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/313845", "http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/08/30/democratic-group-begins-canceling-ads-supporting-ted-strickland.html", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/ticket-splitters-could-be-key-vulnerable-gop-senate-incumbents-n633751", "http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/09/is_it_too_late_for_ted_strickl.html#incart_river_home", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/rob-portman-fundraising-ohio-strickland-229074", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/national-democratic-groups-bailing-on-ohio-senate-race/2016/08/30/68d985b8-6ec4-11e6-993f-73c693a89820_story.html", "http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/09/donald_trump_extends_lead_over.html#incart_2box", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/thanks-to-rubio-and-portman-retaining-senate-majority-remains-within-gop-reach/2016/09/11/0dd0d0a2-7830-11e6-a482-61b767c17607_story.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-ohio-rob-portman-ted-strickland-227278"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-15

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/178

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1023

True

2019-01-01

Before 1 January 2019, will any other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?

binary

After the victory of the "leave" campaign in the United Kingdom's 2016 referendum, there have been <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/15/europe/populism-in-european-elections-visual-guide/index.html"target="_blank">calls</a> from factions within other EU member states to leave the <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-06/draghi-says-euro-is-irreversible-as-le-pen-urges-french-exit"target="_blank">eurozone</a> or the <a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums"target="_blank">European Union</a>. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "No" on 12/31/2018. There was no other EU-exit referendum scheduled during the lifespan of the question. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-01-02

gjopen

["https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21718520-netherlands-more-risk-most-brexit-and-protectionism-retreat", "http://www.dw.com/en/italys-five-star-movement-feeds-on-voters-anger/a-42711560", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/667091", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/665603", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/27/world/europe/czech-election-milos-zeman.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2017/jan/20/theresa-may-brexit-migrants-housing-crisis", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/640877", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poland-eu-officials-improvement-ties-52932695", "http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/525268-oprahs-you-get-a-car", "https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21731663-break-up-coalition-talks-leads-country-uncharted-territory-break-up?zid=307&amp;ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07", "http://www.beppegrillo.it/cerca-nel-blog/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39766334", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/01/farmers-brexit-wolf-sheep-voted-leave-eu-subsidy-tory-enemies", "https://www.politico.eu/article/dont-worry-about-nexit-well-maybe-just-a-bit-netherlands-elections-geert-wilders-dutch-mark-rutte/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42841041", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/denmark/12032958/Denmarks-EU-referendum-is-a-blow-to-David-Cameron.html", "https://www.derstandard.de/story/2000072755783/italiens-fuenf-sterne-bewegung-verzichtet-auf-euro-referendum", "http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/05/how-contagious-will-austrias-politics-be-in-2018", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/lists/hipster-venues-in-shoreditch-that-will-make-you-despair/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-program-with-no-euro-referendum-idUSKBN1FB1LM", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/19/no-eu-exit-for-us-say-italys-on-the-rise-eurosceptics", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/915306/Brexit-news-Germany-Hans-Olaf-Henkel-UK-EU-European-Union", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/25/scotland-alexsalmond"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-15

0.0

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["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2019-01-01", 0.05]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/820

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Sudan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/922

True

2017-09-07

Before 7 September 2017, will Colin Kaepernick be signed by an NFL team?

binary

<b>Colin Kaepernick was not signed by an NFL team. This question closed as "b) no" with and end date of 7 September 2017.</b> With the NFL season less than two weeks from kick-off, Colin Kaerpernick, the former starting quarterback for the 49ers, has yet to find a team (<a href = "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colin-kaepernick-nfl-quarterback-job-us-national-anthem-debate/"target="_blank">CBS</a>). There has been interest, but no team has yet to offer the free-agent a contract (<a href = "https://www.sbnation.com/2017/7/27/16049410/colin-kaepernick-free-agent-adam-schefter-blackballed-owners"target="_blank">SB Nation</a>, <a href = "http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2724274-ravens-sign-qb-david-olson-after-reported-colin-kaepernick-interest"target="_blank">Bleacher Report</a>, <a href = "http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-colin-kaepernick-controversy-20170804-story.html"target="_blank">Baltimore Sun</a>, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/colin-kaepernick-is-not-supposed-to-be-unemployed/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a>).

2017-09-11

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-25

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/569

True

2016-02-29

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

binary

Plummeting oil prices are threatening the country's main source of revenue, and runaway inflation is making it difficult for Venezuela and its state-owned oil and gas company to service its foreign debt (<a href = "http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/01/05/hello-2015-argentina-and-venezuela-the-emperor-has-no-clothes/" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/venezuela-s-772-inflation-means-default-may-come-a-lot-sooner" target = "_blank">Bloomberg 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/ravaged-by-oil-s-collapse-venezuela-now-has-a-big-gold-problem" target = "_blank">Bloomberg 2</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/84-will-turkey-impose-capital-controls-before-1-december-2016" target = "_blank">Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/112-will-russia-conduct-a-naval-exercise-in-the-western-hemisphere-with-a-central-or-south-american-country-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/127-will-the-government-of-colombia-and-the-farc-sign-a-final-peace-agreement-before-1-may-2016" target = "_blank">Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?</a>

2016-03-01

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-debt-idUSL2N1631PV", "http://www.newsmovingmarkets.com/2016/02/venezuela-sovereign-debt-default-risk-cds.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/venezuela-bonds-drop-for-third-day-on-heightened-default-concern", "http://buenosairesherald.com/article/208652/venezuela-expands-military-influence-over-oil-and-mining", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/maduro-fails-to-reassure-investors-venezuela-can-avoid-default", "http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1243946908&amp;Country=Venezuela&amp;topic=Economy&amp;subtopic=Forecast&amp;subsubtopic=Policy+trends&amp;u=1&amp;pid=553866839&amp;oid=553866839&amp;uid=1", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/02/16/venezuela-will-currency-reform-wednesday-stave-off-default/", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/reporters-notebook/moving-to-venezuela/ata-port-in-venezuela-few-ships-but-plenty-of-theories-why", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/graphics-political-and-economic-guide-venezuela", "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21693273-default-becoming-hard-avoid-praying-pay", "http://en.mercopress.com/2016/02/29/venezuela-pays-debt-to-bankers-but-bakeries-have-no-bread-because-of-scarce-flour", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/venezuela-makes-15-billion-payment-to-creditors-2016-02-26", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/venezuela-ongc-idUKL2N1622IN", "http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-economy-idUSL2N15V0LR", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/sifting-through-swiss-gold-vaults-for-clues-of-venezuela-default", "http://buenosairesherald.com/article/208650/top-court-oks-maduro-emergency-decree-", "http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-O2M9X96TTDSA01-1N35HC3FJ2TR3HBD1T9VOQP9R6", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/cf14a292-d40d-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html#ixzz40Nj4kHmi", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12159052/Oil-prices-crash-after-Saudia-Arabia-and-Russia-agree-to-freeze-production.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-meeting-idUSKCN0VO2FJ", "http://www.dw.com/en/venezuelan-army-vows-support-for-maduro-as-political-crisis-deepens/a-18966540", "https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/venezuela-president-fights-two-front-war", "http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/21/venezuela-drumbeat-of-default-gets-louder/", "http://venezuelandailybrief.blogspot.com/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/9

True

2018-01-01

Will the World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party meet before 1 January 2018?

binary

The first step in the WTO accession process is the establishment of a Working Party. Iran's Working Party was established in 2005 but has yet to meet (<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/iran-world-trade-organization-wto-accession-bid.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/a1_iran_e.htm" target="_blank">World Trade Organization</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162-will-venezuela-or-its-state-owned-oil-company-petroleos-de-venezuela-sa-pdvsa-default-on-any-of-its-foreign-debt-before-1-february-2017" target="_blank">whether Venezuela or its state owned oil company will default on foreign debt</a> or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/346-will-saudi-arabia-s-holdings-of-us-treasury-securities-dip-below-50-billion-before-1-june-2017" target="_blank">whether Saudi Arabia's holdings of US Treasury securities will dip below $50B in the coming months</a>.} <hr> The World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party did not meet. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-navy-wargames-idUSKBN165094", "https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-satellite-un-idUKKBN1AI1UJ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-navy-idUSKBN16D1X3", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/31/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-iran-missile-test.html", "http://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-1.756645", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-arrest-idUSKBN16C0PI", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/us-iran-missile-test/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN1AI2N0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKCN1B918E", "https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acc_e.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN19B2Y7", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN16O2RL", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-security-carrier-iran-idUSKBN16W0TA", "http://www.globalintelligencetrust.com/single-post/2016/08/17/WTO-Membership-for-Iran-A-Catalyst-for-Economic-Growth-and-Decentralization-of-Power", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-whitehouse-idUSKBN17L29X", "https://www.rt.com/news/379427-iran-tests-russian-s300/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-security-carrier-idUSKBN16T2CZ", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/iran-world-trade-organization-wto-accession-bid.html#ixzz4T53Ya9EX", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-tillerson-idUSKBN17L08I", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-test-fires-medium-range-ballistic-missile-1489082919?mod=e2fb", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-urge-u-s-to-block-irans-wto-bid-1475793488", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN16U2VI", "http://english.aawsat.com/adel-al-salmi/world-news/threat-war-stokes-conflict-iran", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-sanctions-25-iranian-entities-1486135896"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-12-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/359

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1083

True

2016-11-01

Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer "Yes" with an end date of 1 November 2016. <a href="http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/09/toyota-mirai-sales-figures-usa-canada-monthly-yearly.html" target="_blank">Good Car Bad Car</a> reports that Toyota sold 103 Mirai in October, pushing their yearly sales total to 813. The Mirai is Toyota's first commercially launched fuel cell-powered electric vehicle (<a href = "https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html" target = "_blank">Mirai</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2015/07/20/toyota-on-mirai-vs-tesla-battery-electric-vehicles-have-fundamental-physics-problem/" target = "_blank">Forbes 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/lianeyvkoff/2016/01/31/hydrogen-vehicles-are-here-and-expensive/#6b9839715612" target = "_blank">Forbes 2</a>). In late 2014, Toyota announced the goal of selling 3,000 Mirai in the U.S. by the end of 2017 (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2015/07/27/taking-on-tesla-toyota-mirai-fuel-cell-vehicle-infrastructure-hurdles-interview/#65eb48b42e59" target = "_blank">Forbes 3</a>). However, only 72 were sold in the last three months of 2015 (<a href = "http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/tms+december+2015+sales+chart.htm" target = "_blank">Toyota</a>). <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mirai_trimmed.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Mirai_trimmed.jpg" height=200> </a> <small>Image source: Wikimedia Commons. Click on the image for more info.</small> Toyota Mirai sales data can be tracked both during and after the challenge <a href = "http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/09/toyota-mirai-sales-figures-usa-canada-monthly-yearly.html" target = "_blank">here</a>. Note that sales figures reported include all vehicles acquired by a customer, regardless of how that customer is defined or what kind of payment they made in order to register the vehicle. Hence, sales figures also include leases, and refers to both individual and business customers. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will be closed when the 2016 data is released.

2016-11-02

gjopen

["http://toyotanews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/tms-september-2016-sales-chart.htm", "http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100377_more-than-1000-people-want-2016-toyota-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles", "http://www.autoblog.com/2016/06/20/california-government-deal-toyota-mirai-fleet/", "https://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=19515", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/329547", "https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng", "http://pressroom.toyota.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=5692", "http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1106296_price-cut-and-monthly-sales-spike-for-toyota-mirai-fuel-cell-sedan", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/336048", "http://hondanews.eu/eu/en/corporate/media/pressreleases/77303/honda-set-to-resume-production-at-kumamoto-factory", "http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/kumamoto-prefecture-jp/", "http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/09/toyota-mirai-sales-figures-usa-canada-monthly-yearly.html", "https://www.fremont.gov/2295/SunShares-Program", "http://newsroom.toyota.co.jp/en/corporate/companyinformation/manufacturing", "http://earthquaketrack.com/p/japan/kumamoto/recent", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/319051", "http://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/21/toyota-mirai-lease-rate-dropped-349-month/", "http://www.hybridcars.com/california-governments-add-toyota-mirai-fuel-cell-cars-to-their-fleets/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/330642", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOUjqxec4bA", "http://left-lane.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-mirai/", "http://newsroom.toyota.co.jp/en/detail/11935925", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLAlen2RvnI", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/319229", "http://www.toyotanewsroom.com/releases/tms-august-2016-sales-chart.htm"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-22

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/184

True

2018-07-25

Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election?

binary

Elections are scheduled to be held on 25 July 2018 and Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N, remains popular despite the corruption charges leveled against Sharif (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21725686-grounds-nawaz-sharifs-dismissal-set-worryingly-wide-precedent-pakistans-prime-minister"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/06/world/asia/pakistan-military-dissent-censorship.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). <hr> _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2018-07-27

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-13

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/965

True

2015-12-31

Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

binary

US coalition partners in Syria include Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Jordan. A no-fly zone has been discussed as a potential way to protect civilians and humanitarian workers in Syria, but Russia's air campaign makes execution more difficult and more dangerous (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-02/putin-has-his-own-no-fly-zone-in-syria , http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-un-assembly-hollande-syria-idUSKCN0RS2D920150928 , http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/27/former-british-general-calls-for-no-fly-zone-over-north-west-syria , http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/02/in-break-with-white-house-clinton-advocates-syria-no-fly-zone/ ).

2016-01-05

gjopen

["http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/23/why-the-idea-of-no-fly-zones-in-syria-should-be-grounded/", "http://www.elpais.cr/2015/12/08/argumentos-basados-en-la-resolucion-2249-del-consejo-de-seguridad-en-el-reciente-informe-del-primer-ministro-britanico-sobre-siria-una-necesaria-clarificacion/", "http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-wests-silver-lining-turkey-russia-tensions-14509", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34485827", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/32446", "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/09/pentagon-admits-syrian-russian-opposition-scuttles-no-fly-zone", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/14122015", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/paris-tragedy-and-turkish-crisis-cast-fresh-light-on-nato-role-1448463452", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", "http://www.stripes.com/news/pentagon-hesitant-to-commit-to-no-fly-zone-given-challenges-1.380304", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "https://www.rt.com/op-edge/324563-isis-russia-turkey-syria/", "http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151206/1031312306/daesh-aircraft-militants-pilots.html", "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2015/11/27/the-latest-france-focused-on-destroying-is-hq-in-raqqa", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/12/30/iranian-rocket-passes-within-1500-yards-us-aircraft-carrier.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/early-christmas-gift-accidental-clustering/", "http://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2015/11/23/kerry-us-trying-to-speed-up-efforts-to-defeat-islamic-state-n2084426", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/super-friday-night/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/updated-super-picker/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-air-strikes-cartoon-sums-up-the-problem-with-the-international-coalition-against-isis-a6755521.html", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-obama-hollande-isis-20151124-story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/46014", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/49233", "http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/11/25/russia-to-deploy-s400-missile-system-near-turkish-border.html?ESRC=eb.nl"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-10-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/61

True

2017-11-01

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Angola in October 2017?

binary

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Violence against civilians or Remote violence; and 'FATALITIES' is greater than or equal to 1. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.

2017-11-07

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/614-will-acled-record-any-civilian-fatalities-in-angola-in-october-2017#", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/573815", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/585442"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-20

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/614

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1014

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing?

binary

On 30 March 2017, SpaceX succesfully launched the first recycled orbital-class booster, marking the first time in the history of spaceflight that a single booster has been used on two separate missions (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/30/technology/spacex-launch-ses-10-reused-rocket/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/live-today-spacex-attempts-to-launch-a-flight-proven-rocket/"target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>). Elon Musk has stated that his next goal is to turn the booster around for relaunch in 24 hours, a milestone he said could be accomplished before the end of the year (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-spacex-launch-idUSKBN1711JY"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). A relaunch that occurs within 24 hours of the booster landing, where the second stage of the rocket in the relaunch reaches low Earth orbit, will resolve this question as "Yes", regardless of whether the orbital-class booster lands after the second launch. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> SpaceX did not successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-08

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/565391", "https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/23/15861622/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-landing-success-buglariasat", "http://harvardpolitics.com/covers/the-new-space-race/", "https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=19074", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qBNEgQ_SOTQ", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck/tesla-to-make-pickup-truck-after-model-y-crossover-idUSKBN1EK1A5", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdoNQXQYv8", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/19/spacex-targets-24-hour-first-stage-rocket-re-use-turnaround-by-2018/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPGUQySBikQ", "https://www.cnet.com/news/spacex-elon-musk-falcon-9-iridium-bulgariasat-double-header/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/", "http://clicklancashire.com/2017/04/14/spacex-enters-history-books-with-successful-launch-landing.html", "http://www.theverge.com/2017/3/30/15117096/spacex-launch-reusable-rocket-success-falcon-9-landing", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck/new-200000-tesla-roadster-speeds-in-front-of-electric-big-rig-truck-idUSKBN1DG1LW", "https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/19/spacex-reuse-rockets-24-hours-2018/", "https://www.space.com/37237-spacex-rocket-launch-delay-weekend-doubleheader.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/468

True

2019-01-01

Before 1 January 2019, will either house of Congress pass a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs?

binary

The Trump administration's tariffs on aluminum and steel are at the center of a policy battle in the US and abroad (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trade-is-the-republican-partys-last-stand/2018/03/08/b31c840e-2313-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21738392-america-setting-dangerous-new-precedents-it-tries-curb-imports-looming-global-trade"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/377072-senate-gop-weighs-legislation-over-trump-tariffs"target="_blank">The Hill</a>). Examples of bills which would limit the president's authority over tariffs include, e.g., <a href = "https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/177"target="_blank">Congress.gov</a>, <a href = "https://www.flake.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/1d8429ab-bdd9-4c14-a261-a8bda593fb09/flakenullifytariffbill.pdf"target="_blank">Office of Senator Jeff Flake</a>, <a href = "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44707.pdf"target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a> <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-01-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-03-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/904

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/242745"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/521

True

2017-08-31

Will ACLED record a riot/protest event in the Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for August 2017?

binary

<b>This question closed as "a) Yes", with and end date of 31 August 2017.</b> The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by "The Realtime August 2017 All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data Page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a> ). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY’ is: Ivory Coast; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in August 2017; and 'EVENT TYPE’ is: Riots/Protests. The question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved using data retrieved mid-September 2017.

2017-09-26

gjopen

["http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/116029/cote-divoire-un-mort-et-trois-blesses-dans-une-manifestation-des-agents-du-complexe-sucrier-de-ferkessedougou", "http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/115888/des-policiers-deployes-autour-dun-commissariat-au-sud-dabidjan-apres-une-manifestation", "http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/118175/cote-divoire-police-disperse-manifestation-dun-camp-parti-de-gbagbo-a-divo", "http://www.jeuneafrique.com/463715/politique/cote-divoire-nouvelle-attaque-de-commissariat-par-des-assaillants-armes-a-adzope/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html", "http://sundiatapost.com/2017/08/04/army-say-20-gunmen-attack-cote-divoire-police-station-steal-weapons/", "http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/116698/cote-divoire-les-cours-perturbes-par-une-manifestation-deleves-a-san-pedro-sud-ouest", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ACLED_Codebook_2017.pdf", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSCIV", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/ivory-coast-rain-sun-boost-prospects-for-cocoa-main-crop/articleshow/60262706.cms", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-agents-visit-fla-pastor-over-quran-burning", "http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/111732/manifestation-dex-combattants-en-cote-divoire-pour-une-prime-dinstallation-de-160-000-fcfa-chacun", "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2017/06/22/Cote-d-Ivoire-First-Reviews-Under-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-and-45000", "https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iv.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/06/world/2-religions-clashing-in-ivory-coast.html", "https://www.strausscenter.org/ccaps/research/about-social-conflict.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/558723", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/554589", "http://koaci.com/cote-divoire-victimes-comptes-agrobusiness-gazes-police-plateau-106187.html", "https://www.fratmat.info/index.php/politique/cooperation-cote-d-ivoire-france-emmanuel-macron-a-abidjan-des-novembre", "http://www.acleddata.com/about-acled/", "http://news.abidjan.net/h/620689.html", "http://abidjantv.net/actualites/delinquance-a-abidjan-les-microbes-resurgissent-de-plus-belle-etdefient-letat-la-population-abandonnee-a-son-sort/", "http://koaci.com/cote-divoire-promesse-mille-travailleurs-greve-mine-tongon-106129.html", "http://koaci.com/cote-divoire-marche-fesci-lieu-abidjan-daloa-aucun-incident-deplore-112167.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-07

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/546

True

2018-06-30

Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will two or more states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment?

binary

The Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) passed Congress in 1972 but fell three states short of the required 38 state legislature ratifications. On 22 March 2017, Nevada ratified the ERA, reinvigorating activists who are seeking to secure ratification by two additional legislatures (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/21/520962541/nevada-on-cusp-of-ratifying-equal-rights-amendment-35-years-after-deadline""target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href = "http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/dp-nws-ga-era-shenanigans-20150203-story.html"target="_blank">The Daily Express</a>, <a href = "http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/illinois-at-center-of-revived-equal-rights-amendment-fight/"target="_blank">Chicago Sun Times</a>). States which have not ratified the ERA include AL, AZ, AR, FL, GA, IL, LA, MS, MO, NC, OK, SC, UT, and VA. <i>Clarification:</i> The closing date has been updated to 30 June 2018 to match the end date referenced in the question. <hr> Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018 only <a href = "http://www.sj-r.com/news/20180530/illinois-becomes-37th-state-to-ratify-equal-rights-amendment"target="_blank">Illinois ratified the Equal Rights Amendment</a>. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-12

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/canada-cabinet-gender-diversity-justin-trudeau", "http://people.com/movies/lina-esco-swat-harvey-weinstein-sexual-harassment/", "https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/its-metoo-time-for-the-equal-rights-amendment-in_us_59fa6359e4b09887ad6f3d4a", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/illinois-gop-governor-urges-unity-ahead-divisive-election-52751711", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment#State_Equal_Rights_Amendments", "http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus.asp?DocTypeID=SJRCA&amp;DocNum=4&amp;GAID=14&amp;SessionID=91&amp;LegID=99262", "https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/20a2e4_9d9899b28807471d994a1edacbb04501.pdf", "http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/virginia-general-assembly-starts-2018-session-with-push-for-progressive-laws/", "http://www.gvnews.com/opinion/era-efforts/article_3ef441a0-a31d-11e7-9018-2f7d04fa1083.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gop-house-leaders-in-va-refuse-hearing-on-federal-equal-rights-amendment/2018/02/08/b3c07b02-0ce0-11e8-8b0d-891602206fb7_story.html?utm_term=.0d53d874166f", "http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/search-for-merkel-successor-leads-to-kramp-karrenbauer-a-1190391.html", "http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-republicans-refused-to-discuss-the-equal-rights-amendment-9287937", "http://www.richmond.com/news/local/central-virginia/powhatan/powhatan-today/opinion/equal-rights-amendment-is-long-overdue/article_2a4587b4-02db-11e8-a668-af447bb4f47b.html", "http://www.richmond.com/news/local/central-virginia/powhatan/powhatan-today/local-powhatan-girls-involved-in-equal-rights-amendment/article_07ef203e-fb9d-11e7-a0b9-ff975530f870.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_General_Assembly", "https://wtop.com/virginia/2018/02/va-lawmakers-strike-down-federal-equal-rights-amendment-bills/", "https://www.journal-topics.com/articles/moylan-to-back-era-ratification/", "http://wtvr.com/2018/01/15/womens-rights-groups-urge-virginia-to-ratify-era/", "http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/dp-nws-ga-era-shenanigans-20150203-story.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_General_Assembly", "http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/illinois-at-center-of-revived-equal-rights-amendment-fight/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Equal_Rights_Amendments", "http://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/florida-state-lawmakers-reintroduce-bill-to-ratify-equal-rights-amendment/77-506676912", "http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/billstatus.asp?DocNum=4&amp;GAID=14&amp;GA=100&amp;DocTypeID=SJRCA&amp;LegID=99262&amp;SessionID=91", "https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/17/europe/france-macron-cabinet-women/index.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-12

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/484

True

2017-10-31

Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Burundi (BDI) that starts between 4 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?

binary

The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href="http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html" target="_blank">Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which covers the period of interest. If a qualifying event is recorded, the question will be closed retroactively with the date of the first event as the end date of the question. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Due to a temporary pause in data availability this question will remain closed and unresolved until data becomes available. This is currently expected to be around March 2018.

None

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/590506", "http://www.wbrc.com/story/36482026/burundi-refugees-pressured-return-home-says-rights-group", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burundian_unrest_(2015%E2%80%93present)#2016.E2.80.932017_events", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201710040033.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/39-burundian-refugees-shot-dead-congo-170918125254140.html", "http://africanarguments.org/2017/10/03/burundi-newest-biggest-rebel-group/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/killed-burundi-grenade-attacks-bars-170818140040303.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201710110633.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/589490"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/637

False

2016-12-31

Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, cease to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016?

binary

This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The Panama Papers are a trove of documents from a Panamanian law firm detailing secretive financial dealings that could involve tax evasion or money laundering (<a href="https://panamapapers.icij.org/20160403-panama-papers-global-overview.html" target="_blank">The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) 1</a>, <a href="https://panamapapers.icij.org/" target="_blank">ICIJ 2</a>). Prime Minister Sharif has come under public pressure and scrutiny as a result of the revelation of those documents (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/15/world/asia/nawaz-sharif-leaves-pakistan-panama-papers-scandal.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/the-panama-papers-and-a-turf-war-in-pakistan/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-politics-idUSKCN0XL0A0" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/9bba31da-0231-11e6-99cb-83242733f755" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). Vacating office for any reason will count. In the event that Sharif reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Sharif returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target="_blank"> Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153-will-keiko-fujimori-win-peru-s-upcoming-presidential-election" target="_blank">Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/military-boys-set-timer-device-on-nawaz-sharif-government/articleshow/54876629.cms", "http://m.hindustantimes.com/world-news/nawaz-sharif-orders-action-over-news-story-on-national-security/story-hUizPziP8U344V30WXnUyL.html", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/full-text-of-nawaz-sharifs-speech-at-the-un-general-assembly-3043041/", "https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/156348-Bilawal-criticises-PM-Nawaz-for-blocking-Panama-Papers-investigation", "http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/closer-us-india-ties-reason-for-pakistans-burgeoning-ties-with-russia-nawaz-sharifs-special-envoy-on-jk/411215/", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Talk-of-government-army-friction-in-Pakistan-may-be-all-too-true/articleshow/54760395.cms", "https://m.geo.tv/#category%7Clatest-news%7Cp106813-Indian-Prime-Minister-Modi-wishes-Nawaz-Sharif-speedy-recovery", "https://m.geo.tv/#category%7Clatest-news%7Cp117215-PM-says-CPEC-to-bring-economic-revolution-in-Pakistan", "http://m.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistani-journalist-who-reported-military-government-rift-banned-from-leaving-country-1472698", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/350609", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/General-Sharif-a-known-India-baiter-on-way-out/articleshow/55552299.cms", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/pakistan-prime-minister-nawaz-sharif-donald-trump-president-oath-taking-ceremony-tariq-fatemi-may-visit-us-next-month-4410095/", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1238914/army-ends-retirement-guessing-game/", "http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA549541", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1214307/rivals-trying-seize-sabotage-countrys-progress-pm-nawaz/", "http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nawaz-sharif-pakistan-army-chief-gen-raheel-sharif-retires-4388365/", "http://m.dw.com/en/why-pakistani-pm-sharif-should-replace-the-army-chief/a-36014438", "http://www.smh.com.au/world/opposition-leader-imran-khan-under-virtual-house-arrest-in-pakistan-20161028-gsdjdm.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/pakistan-information-minister-removed-news-report-161029140320275.html", "http://www.hngn.com/articles/210978/20161010/kashmir-nawaz-sharif-pakistan-india-kashmir-freedom-struggle-surgical-strike-pakistan-burhan-wani.htm", "http://www.news18.com/news/world/tensions-rise-as-pak-govt-blames-its-army-for-spoiling-countrys-image-1299231.html", "https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pakistan-may-building-nuclear-complex-analysts-101308429.html?soc_src=social-sh&amp;soc_trk=tw", "http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/military-boys-set-timer-device-on-nawaz-sharif-govt-116101500461_1.html", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1194918/opposition-lawmakers-urge-govt-shun-non-state-actors/", "http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-pakistan-protest-20161101-story.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-17

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/201

True

2017-07-01

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?

binary

The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (<a href="http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/nuclear-iran-weekly/how-will-inspections-work-iran-under-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Iran Watch</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/03/u-n-watchdog-iran-nuclear-deal-appears-to-be-working-so-far-but-inspectors-are-stretched/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/179" target="_blank">Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136" target="_blank">Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/138" target="_blank">Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?</a> <hr> To date there is no evidence of any IAEA access disputes being referred to the Joint Commission. This question was closed as "b) No" with an end date of 30 June 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-07-06

gjopen

["http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/31/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-iran-missile-test.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-military-idUSKBN15J0BM", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-arrest-idUSKBN16C0PI", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/trump-administration-says-iran-complying-with-nuclear-deal/articleshow/58252637.cms", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/us-iran-missile-test/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-calls-meeting-nuclear-deal-powers-over-u-180002908.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN1962AU", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKBN13S088", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-set-to-impose-new-sanctions-on-iran-entities-as-soon-as-friday-1486071696", "http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-10-04/questions-after-news-obama-agreed-to-lift-un-sanctions-on-iranian-banks", "http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-was-caught-importing-potentially-banned-missile-technology-2017-1?ref=yfp", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN16O2RL", "http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-the-iaeas-fourth-iran-deal-report-time-of-change/#ref2", "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS20871.pdf", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-test-fires-medium-range-ballistic-missile-1489082919?mod=e2fb", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-kazakhstan-russia-idUSKBN1640DO", "http://isis-online.org/uploads/iaea-reports/documents/IAEA_Iran_Report_9Nov2016.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN16U2VI", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN1631WG", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-europe-in-agreement-on-russia-sanctions-eu-official-says-1486755982", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/iran-sanctions-renewal-law-obama-signature-44204828", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-white-house-puts-iran-on-notice-after-missile-launch-1485979767?mod=e2fb", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-sanctions-25-iranian-entities-1486135896", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-idUSKBN15H253", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-sticks-deadline-nuclear-deal-141927084.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-07-05

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/231

True

2018-07-01

Will al-Shabaab attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018?

binary

Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Somalia and Kenya (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-15336689"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://abcnews.go.com/International/us-military-carries-offensive-airstrike-somalia-trumps-authorities/story?id=47966876"target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/08/al-shabaab-somalia-kill-dozens-attack-military-base"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-02

gjopen

["http://www.atimes.com/article/china-establish-court-obor-disputes/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43198444", "https://www.redanalysis.org/2017/01/30/chinese-new-silk-road-east-africa/", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/22/c_136992152.htm", "https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/12/africa/somalia-al-shabaab-foreign-aid-intl/index.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_diplomatic_missions_of_the_United_States", "https://diplomacy.state.gov/discoverdiplomacy/explorer/#places", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/world/africa/eighteen-killed-in-somalia-attacks.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&amp;action=click&amp;contentCollection=world&amp;region=stream&amp;module=stream_unit&amp;version=latest&amp;contentPlacement=3&amp;pgtype=sectionfront", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/610035", "http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/210204.pdf", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/25/c_136997422.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Al-Shabaab_related_events", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/15/c_136978126.htm", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201802180153.html", "http://www.start.umd.edu/search/content/al-Shabaab%20Africa", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embassy_of_the_United_States,_Nairobi", "https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2018/02/Targeted-Terror-3.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/kenya-tourism/kenyas-tourism-revenues-jump-20-pct-in-2017-idUSL8N1PY5PP", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/africa-command-conducts-air-strikes-somalia-171103202800400.html", "http://www.africanews.com/2018/02/24/ethiopia-s-ruling-eprdf-sets-congress-date-new-pm-latest-march-3//", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/26/c_137001557.htm", "http://www.allgov.com/departments/department-of-state/bureau-of-overseas-buildings-operations?agencyid=7185", "https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2018-ATA---Unclassified-SSCI.pdf?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&amp;utm_campaign=e937f10cc7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_14&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_02cbee778d-e937f10cc7-122637085&amp;mc_cid=e937f10cc7&amp;mc_eid=582d9de4fe", "http://www.thesierraleonetelegraph.com/west-african-elections-observers-arrive-in-freetown/", "http://www.start.umd.edu/baad/narratives/haqqani-network"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-07-25

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/541

True

2017-10-24

Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with "famine" and "South Sudan" or "Nigeria" in its headline between 6 September 2017 and 25 October 2017?

binary

<a href="http://www.fews.net/about-us" target="_blank">The Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a> provides early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity around the world. Question will resolve as "yes" if FEWS NET publishes one or more Food Security Alert(s) in the time period of interest that includes the words "famine" and either or both of the countries of interest in its headline. <a href="https://www.fews.net/search?date_range=All&field_report_type%5B%5D=78&keywords=&field_report_coverage_period_value=&field_report_coverage_period_value_1=&sort_by=field_report_coverage_period_value&sort_order=DESC&report_sort_by=DESC" target="_blank">FEWS NET data</a>.

2017-11-09

gjopen

["http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria/alert/december-13-2016", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/591891", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/south-sudan", "http://www.fews.net/critical-situation-nigeria", "http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/587263", "http://www.fews.net/global/alert/june-2017", "http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/speeches/2017/09/05/achim-steiner-undp-administrator-statement-to-the-2nd-regular-session-of-the-undp-executive-board.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/565692", "http://peaceworkspartners.org/vault/Nigeria/Research/Nigeria%20Statistics/crop_calendar_nigeria.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/588

True

2017-05-31

Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017?

binary

Unrest in Kashmir is the source of constant tension between India and Pakistan (<a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/india-pakistan-conflict-update-militants-attack-indian-army-post-kashmir-ceasefire-2425161"target="_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-lines-that-have-been-crossed/article9180988.ece"target="_blank">The Hindu</a>). Examples of ground offensives include India's Operation Vijay in the 1999 Kargil War (<a href = "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/kargil-99.htm"target="_blank">GlobalSecurity.org</a>) and Turkey's Euphrates Shield in Syria (<a href = "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-offensive-in-syria-news-latest-tanks-cross-border-operation-to-cleanse-region-of-isis-kurdish-a7210941.html"target="_blank">The Independent</a>). Examples of military incidents that would not meet the threshold of a ground offensive include the September 2016 attacks (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/29/pakistani-soldiers-killed-surgical-strikes-kashmir-india"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/18/asia/india-kashmir-attack/"target="_blank">CNN</a>), the October 2014 border clashes (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-29502054"target="_blank">BBC</a>), and the 2001 attack on the Indian Kashmiri Assembly (<a href = "http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1574225.stm"target="_blank">BBC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/350" target="_blank">whether both India and Pakistan will attend a SAARC summit before 1 January 2018</a> or <a>whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in India before 2017</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2017-06-02

gjopen

["http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/world/story/250366.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBnO9dw3n6A", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-idUSKBN17J0HZ", "http://bit.ly/2pI7BEn", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/india-to-boycott-china-summit-amid-kashmir-concerns-8844892", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_and_the_Arab_Spring", "https://www.insightonconflict.org/conflicts/kashmir/conflict-profile/", "https://www.geo.tv/latest/139619-Attack-on-Indian-army-camp-in-Kashmir-5including-officers-killed", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/what-indians-should-know-before-demanding-military-crackdown-in-kashmir-chhattisgarh/story-l65D1BM3Z4IVMJ2dtQ802O.html", "http://www.india.com/news/india/3-raw-agents-arrested-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-reports-2030992/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/opinion/a-cruel-april-in-kashmir.html?_r=0", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/09/c_136193398.htm", "https://www.peacedirect.org/us/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-pakistan-idUSKBN18904U", "http://www.firstpost.com/india/indian-soldiers-beheaded-on-loc-mood-of-the-nation-demands-befitting-response-from-narendra-modi-govt-3419664.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/09/six-die-indian-police-open-fire-kashmir-poll-protesters-budgam-district", "http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/front-page/kashmir-shuts-against-pm-s-visit/245398.html", "http://www.oneindia.com/india/38-attacks-on-indian-army-is-india-doing-enough-to-stop-pak-offensive-2419266.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_and_Analysis_Wing", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/teen-girls-with-stones-are-the-new-threat-in-indias-kashmir-conflict/2017/04/28/5933168a-2a92-11e7-9081-f5405f56d3e4_story.html?utm_term=.bdb4b9a44956", "http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&amp;objectid=11865751", "https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/05/29/indian-army-not-expecting-limited-war-with-pakistan/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-india-un-observer-kashmir/3869296.html", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/beheading-of-soldiers-army-will-hit-back-says-chief-rawat/story-3jgNa9vXUfDneaPCGcqTBL.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-02-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/421

True

2016-05-24

Will a candidate included on the "List of Hope" or the "People's Expert's List" be elected as the next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts?

binary

The next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts will be selected in May 2016 (<a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/iran-assembly-of-experts-internal-election-chairmanship.html" target = "_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/reasons-why-khamenei-re-asserting-his-authority-iranian-politics-2068068246" target = "_blank">Middle East Eye</a>). For more information on the "People's Expert's List" and the "List of Hope" see <a href = "http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2016/feb/24/irans-election-coalitions" target = "_blank">Iran primer</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/51-will-any-disputes-over-iaea-access-to-iranian-sites-be-referred-to-the-joint-commission-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153-will-keiko-fujimori-win-peru-s-upcoming-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?</a>

2016-05-25

gjopen

["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Experts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_Seminary_Teachers_of_Qom", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/242675", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/239135", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervasive_Coalition_of_Reformists", "http://www.khobreganemellat.net/en/MajlesMemberList.html?CategoryItemID=1012", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/240310", "https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&amp;nv=1&amp;rurl=translate.google.com&amp;sl=fa&amp;tl=en&amp;u=http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/509323/root/Politics&amp;usg=ALkJrhgsAdouOUxjUdkaAS-HxLD10WhDEA", "http://www.irantracker.org/iran-news-round-may-11-2016", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/17/iran-unveils-s-300-missile-defence-system-at-army-day-parade/", "http://irandataportal.syr.edu/the-assembly-of-experts", "http://www7.irna.ir/en/News/82081833/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Assembly_of_Experts_election,_2016", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Assembly_of_Experts_election,_2016#Provinces_with_4_seats_and_less", "http://www.irantracker.org/iran-news-round-may-19-2016", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/116806/Jannati-next-chair-of-Iran-s-Assembly-of-Experts", "http://thefederalist.com/2016/05/23/the-iran-deal-wasnt-about-nukes-at-all/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/05/24/nra-threatens-iran-with-video-about-men-who-wrestle-alligators/", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/402756/Ayatollah-Amini-to-run-for-Assembly-of-Experts-chair", "http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/192197#.Vz_qvpOGOu4", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.iran-daily.com/News/151733.html", "http://www.criticalthreats.org/iran-news-round-may-19-2016", "https://www.desmos.com/calculator/rcqb67ltoi", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-05/24/c_135384578.htm"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/180

True

2016-12-31

Will the book "Superforecasting" be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017?

binary

This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Superforecasting by Good Judgment Inc cofounder Philip E. Tetlock and his coauthor Dan Gardner was released in paperback on 13 September 2016. The hardcover version of the book reached the 11th spot in the New York Times' E-Book Nonfiction list in October 2015. This question will resolve as "yes" if the paper back, hardcover, or e-book version of the book is listed on any of the New York Times' weekly or monthly bestseller lists (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/283" target="_blank">Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?</a>

2017-01-04

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/16-will-the-book-superforecasting-2015-be-on-the-new-york-times-besteller-s-list-by-the-end-of-october", "http://ritholtz.com/2016/12/annual-predictions-2017-edition/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/355938", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/400690", "http://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/paperback-nonfiction/?module=DropDownNav&amp;action=click&amp;region=navbar&amp;contentCollection=Books&amp;version=Nonfiction&amp;referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fbooks%2Fbest-sellers%2Fcombined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction%2F&amp;pgtype=Reference", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-14/put-forecasting-in-its-final-resting-place", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring", "http://www.theworldin.com/good-judgment", "https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100010204140464", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/370284", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/343901", "https://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-09-14/how-superforecasters-think-about-the-future", "http://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/business-books/?_r=0", "https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Prediction-Philip-E-Tetlock/dp/0804136718/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1477755123&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=superforecasting", "https://800ceoread.com/bestseller_lists/2016/september", "https://prod-cert-bucket.s3.amazonaws.com/downloads/fa76f1296f4b48c2b1b7e9f61f8d746a/Statement.pdf", "https://www.chapters.indigo.ca/en-ca/books/superforecasting-the-art-and-science/9780771070549-item.html", "http://www.marketminder.com/a/fisher-investments-book-review-is-forecasting-a-general-skillset/053f643e-86b2-4936-b253-cda14fe868a6.aspx", "https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/numeric-solution?utm_campaign=LL_Content_Digest&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=36161192&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8pYpfQtstIWJ37dlFZAo4LR36fTOjcIRWYMqBafvmxFyOn3iPjk-vmZJTK58uKlBh7YEZrzZ1p1nembJqzo6LMqIlFEQ&amp;_hsmi=36174365", "http://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/2015", "http://www.agriculture.com/news/technology/superforecasting-for-the-farm", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#etiquette", "http://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/business-books/?module=DropDownNav&amp;action=click&amp;region=navbar&amp;contentCollection=Books&amp;version=MonthlyLists&amp;referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookspot.com%2Fbestsellers.htm&amp;pgtype=Reference", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question8"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-10-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/295

True

2016-02-02

Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus?

binary

2016-02-02

gjopen

["http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/267773-live-with-kelly-and-michael-race-pigs-to-predict-iowa-caucus-winner", "https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/693534925782327296", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforbernie", "http://www.radioiowa.com/2016/01/18/surveying-undecided-iowa-gop-caucus-goers/", "http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.6005&amp;lon=-93.6091#.Vq1tM85yvg4", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2581966/", "https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/f1/59/db/f159db919249de270a208398dc922d7b.jpg", "https://weather.com/news/news/weather-channel-poll-likely-voters-iowa-new-hampshire", "http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/", "https://www.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_yHIiXFIBAAC4rM_en", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforcruz", "http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/01/29/hillarys-corporate-democrats-taking-down-bernie-sanders", "http://journal.ijreview.com/2016/01/252498-said-undecided-iowan-received-controversial-mailer-ted-cruz/", "https://www.quora.com/Would-Bernie-Sanders-make-a-viable-presidential-candidate", "https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yPbNlHxkHEs", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforhillary", "http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-republicans-iowa-caucuses-20160201-story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/116034", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/politics/evangelical-voters-2016-iowa/index.html", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-support-in-iowa-is-narrow-but-deep/", "http://www.ew.com/recap/the-good-wife-season-7-episode-11", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusfortrump"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/38

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/iraq-army-intervene-kurds-referendum-escalates-170917042312324.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/twin-suicide-attacks-leave-dozens-dead-southern-iraq-170914132448913.html", "https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41270791"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

0.0

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0.1], ["2017-09-22", 0.1], ["2017-09-22", 0.1], ["2017-09-23", 0.1], ["2017-09-24", 0.11], ["2017-09-24", 0.11], ["2017-09-24", 0.11], ["2017-09-25", 0.11], ["2017-09-25", 0.11], ["2017-09-25", 0.11], ["2017-09-26", 0.11], ["2017-09-26", 0.11], ["2017-09-27", 0.11], ["2017-09-27", 0.11], ["2017-09-27", 0.1], ["2017-09-28", 0.1], ["2017-09-28", 0.1], ["2017-09-28", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.1], ["2017-09-29", 0.095], ["2017-09-30", 0.095], ["2017-09-30", 0.095], ["2017-10-01", 0.095]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/523

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1074

True

2016-01-13

Will Syria hold elections for its national government before 1 January 2018?

binary

In November 2015, foreign governments participating in UN-backed talks agreed that Syria should hold new elections in the next two years (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/14/us-france-shooting-syria-idUSKCN0T30Q520151114#8cKdE8OtClo8OiDS.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>).

None

gjopen

["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_presidential_election,_2014", "http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151218/1031952062/syria-parliamentary-elections.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12086159/US-admits-Bashar-al-Assad-will-outlast-Barack-Obama.html&gt", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/01/12/vladimir-putin-hints-russia-could-provide-asylum-to-syrian-president.html", "http://aranews.net/2016/01/17559/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/syrias-assad-open-to-early-presidential-elections-only-if-terrorists-defeated-first", "http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/6/4/kerry-calls-syrianpresidentialvotemeaningless.html&gt", "http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20160107-bashar-alassad-likely-still-to-be-in-power-when-obama-leaves-office", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#resolution", "http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/New-Syrian-parliament-to-be-elected-in-2016.html", "http://www.ipsnews.net/2016/01/and-all-of-a-sudden-syria/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/85848"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-01-05

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/108

False

2016-12-31

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?

binary

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Zimbabwe as one of the top 35 countries most at risk of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a "yes" answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target = "_blank">blog</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/128-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-burundi-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-ethiopia-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-myanmar-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a> This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Zimbabwe before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-03-30

gjopen

["https://zimnews.net/kasukuwere-moyo-g40-zimbabwe-corruption/", "http://ewn.co.za/2016/04/25/Zim-police-mulling-plans-to-garnish-bank-accounts-of-traffic-offenders", "http://nehandaradio.com/2016/10/25/army-angry-mugabe-takes-aim-g40-corrupt-officials/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-old-leader-faces-new-threats-in-zimbabwe-1471820903", "https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/07/06/zimbabwe-government-workers-strike-over-pay-delay", "http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-opinion-sc-columnist-byo-98329.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/281886", "https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/04/25/zim-holds-meetings-imf-world-bank-spring-forum/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch", "http://www.voazimbabwe.com/a/zimbabwe-protest-harare-mdc/3478950.html", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A90Km_PzAsA", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/zimbabwe-multitudes-march-for-mugabe-life-rule/2016/05/25/969d7184-22a8-11e6-b944-52f7b1793dae_story.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201610090013.html", "https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2016/10/25/tsvangirai-will-crush-mugabe", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/244986", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36860159", "https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/04/25/war-vets-avert-state-capture/", "http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/zimbabwe-s-threadbare-theatre-reform", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36968995", "http://www.crisis.acleddata.com/dissent-and-protest-in-zimbabwe-mass-mobilisation-in-the-face-of-economic-and-political-crisis/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-drought-children-idUSKCN10103C"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-08

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/157

True

2018-06-29

Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close below $200 on 29 June 2018?

binary

A combination of missed production targets, a deadly accident, high levels of debt, and a downgraded credit rating have put stress on Tesla's stock price (<a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/tesla-first-quarter-production-totaled-34494-vehicles-40-percent-increase-from-previous-quarter.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US"target="_blanK">Bloomberg</a>. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> On 29 June, 2018, Tesla stock closed at <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US"target="_blank">342.95</a>. This question closed as "No" with an end date of 29 June 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-12

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-11

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/926

True

2018-01-01

Will Saudi Arabia list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018?

binary

As part of a plan for economic transformation unveiled by Saudi Arabia in April 2016, the Saudi government has said that it intends to raise capital by floating shares in state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-economy-idUSKCN0XM1CD" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-19/saudi-arabia-said-to-pick-jpmorgan-banker-klein-for-aramco-ipo" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/54f30e86-0d15-11e6-ad80-67655613c2d6.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/saudia-arabia-plans-2-trillion-mega-fund-to-wean-the-country-off-oil?__lsa=34d6-bcc5" target="_blank">Financial Post</a>). Only shares of Saudi Aramco's parent company, the Saudi Arabian Oil Company, will count. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17-will-iran-s-president-hassan-rouhani-meet-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-before-1-september-2016" target="_blank">Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/62-will-there-be-a-new-king-of-saudi-arabia-before-1-june-2016" target="_blank"> Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?</a> <hr> Saudi Arabia did not list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-17

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/200

True

2018-08-01

Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?

binary

The first set of China's retaliatory tariffs took effect on 1 April 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/01/world/asia/china-tariffs-united-states.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ag/201804/20180402726864.shtml"target="_blank">Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China</a>), and on 4 April they announced plans for further tariffs on a range of imports, including aircraft, that have not yet taken effect (<a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/04/the-full-list-of-us-products-that-china-is-planning-to-hit-with-tariffs.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). China has indicated that their implementation is dependent on whether the US follows through on its additional tariffs (<a href = "https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/04/what-china-tariffs-mean-for-america-455806"target="_blank">Politico</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question resolved as "No" (<a href = "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1107188.shtml"target="_blank">Global Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-44858188"target="_blank">BBC (Chinese)</a>, <a href = "http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201806/t20180616_2930325.html) with an end date of 1 August 2018"target="_blank">Ministry of Finance of the Peoples Republic of China</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-08-03

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-11

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/928

True

2016-12-31

Will Nissan sell more than 15,000 units of the LEAF in the US in 2016?

binary

This question closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. Sales of the Leaf were 14,006 for 2016 (<a href = "http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/channels/U-S-Sales-Reports/releases/nissan-group-reports-december-and-2016-calendar-year-u-s-sales"target = "_blank">Nissan</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Nissan LEAF is the world’s all-time best selling battery-powered electric car, with global sales of over 200,000 units since its launch in 2010 (<a href="http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/NEWS/2015/_STORY/151210-01-e.html" target="_blank">Nissan</a>). More than 30,000 LEAFS were sold in the US during 2014, up from 22,610 in 2013. However, there was a sharp decline in 2015 with total sales in the US amounting to only 17,269. The newly-released 2016 LEAF has an upgraded 30 kWh battery option which will yield an estimated 107-mile range, a 27% improvement over the 24 kWh option offered in the previous model (<a href="http://blog.caranddriver.com/2016-nissan-leaf-ev-offers-more-range-for-a-price/" target="_blank">Car and Driver</a>). During the first quarter of this year, 2,931 units of LEAF were sold in the US. Question will be resolved using data from <a href="http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-leaf-sales-figures.html" target="_blank">Good Car Bad Car</a>. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/167" target="_blank">Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/184" target="_blank">Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/203" target="_blank">Will Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016?</a>

2017-01-05

gjopen

["https://www.yahoo.com/tech/nissan-confirms-next-gen-leaf-135003615.html", "http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2016/06/nissan-leaf-sales-faceplant-chevy-volt-laughs-points/", "http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107541_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-nov-volt-soars-prius-prime-arrives", "http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/", "http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-leaf-sales-figures.html", "http://www.hybridcars.com/august-2016-dashboard/", "http://www.autoblog.com/2016/11/01/nissan-leaf-100k-sales-us-report/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/313008", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2016/06/05/the-tesla-model-3-effect-nissan-leaf-first-victim/#1271be265dc4", "http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM533484/RCAK-16V436-7499.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-idUSKCN0ZH504", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/259543", "https://cleantechnica.com/2016/11/02/us-nissan-leaf-sales-reach-100000/", "http://electrek.co/2016/06/01/nissan-leaf-sales-down-tesla-model-3-fault/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/392711"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/219

True

2019-01-29

Will California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 1 November 2019?

binary

<p>PG&amp;E is reportedly considering filing for bankruptcy protection after a series of wildfires in California (<a href="https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/06/15/lawmakers-pge-talks-bankruptcy/" target="_blank">CBS</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-15/pg-e-faces-deepening-fire-crisis-with-12-billion-market-wipeout" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/11/20/ca-measure-introduced-to-protect-pge-from-fire-liability-bankruptcy/" target="_blank">CBS</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr></p><p>Pacific Gas &amp; Electric Company filed for bankruptcy on 29 January 2019.&nbsp;https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/pge-owner-of-biggest-us-power-utility-files-for-bankruptcy.html&nbsp;</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><br></p>

2019-01-30

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-21

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1069

True

2017-11-01

Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections before 1 November 2017?

binary

In the past six months, Prime Minister Netanyahu has faced corruption charges (<a href = "http://www.timesofisrael.com/state-prosecutor-expands-legal-team-in-pm-corruption-probes/"target="_blank">The Times of Israel</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-submarine-case.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38491374"target="_blank">BBC</a>) and a political crisis over Israel's public broadcast system (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-19/netanyahu-threatens-elections-over-rift-with-finance-minister"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister. This question closed as "b) No," with an end date of 1 November 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-11-02

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/benjamin-netanyahu-suspect-fraud-investigation-israel-police", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu/WATCH-Yaalon-pulls-no-punches-Netanyahu-absolutely-will-be-indicted-499479", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-gifts-probe-could-drag-on-for-many-months-report/", "https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/8/16107212/corruption-bribery-netanyahu-chief-of-staff-revelations", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-04/israel-crown-prince-netanyahu-under-fire/8776338", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_resignations_from_government", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-israel-labor-party-20170704-story.html", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Netanyahu-I-wont-be-toppled-I-have-nothing-to-fear-501847", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170423-poll-netanyahus-party-most-popular/", "http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.805112", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/state-prosecutor-hopes-netnyahu-corruption-case-wont-take-too-long/", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-12/former-defence-minister-says-netanyahu-will-be-indicted/8702510", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Israel", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/11/netanyahus-inner-circle-is-fleeing-like-rats-on-the-titanic/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-netanyahu/time-is-netanyahus-ally-in-weathering-israel-legal-storm-idUSKBN1AP1NN", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-netanyahu-idUSKBN1AP1NN?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=Social", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-corruption-allegations-lawyers-explain-trouble-a7524416.html", "http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.805521", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Coalition-leader-Bitton-says-Netanyahu-will-not-resign-even-if-indicted-499957", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-will-not-resign-if-indicted-coalition-chair-says/", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/watergate/timeline.html", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/60240468.cms", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Netanyahu-German-submarine-deal-will-go-through-500189"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-18

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/469

True

2018-03-05

Will Rachel Morrison win the 2018 Academy Award^&reg; for Best Cinematography?

binary

Rachel Morrison is the first woman to be nominated for an Academy Award^&reg; for Best Cinematography (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/nominees/cinematography/mudbound-2"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>, <a href = "http://variety.com/2018/film/in-contention/oscars-first-female-cinematographer-mudbound-cinematographer-rachel-morrison-1202673355/"target="_blank">Variety</a>). To enable night of forecasting, this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed on outcome "No." Roger Deakins won the 2018 Academy Award for Best Cinematography. (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2018/03/04/oscars-2018-complete-coverage-of-the-90th-academy-awards/?utm_term=.390e9ecf77c9"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-03-05

gjopen

["http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/2018-oscar-predictions-best-cinematography/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-02-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/883

True

2017-01-01

Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?

binary

Expectations that Iran's nuclear deal would quickly produce economic dividends are fading (<a href="http://qz.com/729036/a-year-on-irans-nuclear-deal-is-helping-its-economy-but-not-as-much-as-some-hoped/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp051716" target="_blank">International Monetary Fund</a>), and those struggles are reflected in the continuing shrinkage of Iran's trade with the world. This question will be resolved using quarterly merchandise trade values reported by the World Trade Organization on <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/short_term_stats_e.htm" target="_blank">its website</a> (or download the WTO dataset <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/quarterly_trade_e.xls" target="_blank">here</a>). Data for "Iran, Islamic Rep. of" from the tabs "Imports" and "Exports" will be summed for Q1-Q4 2016 when they become available, most likely in April 2017. According to the data available in August 2016, the annual totals for 2014 and 2015 were $139.8 billion and $104.9 billion, respectively, and the total for Q1 2016 was $25 billion. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/252" target="_blank">Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198" target="_blank">Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a> <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports for 2016 was $106 billion in total (<a href = "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/quarterly_trade_e.xls"target="_blank">Quarterly merchandise trade value</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-04-12

gjopen

["https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/320908", "http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113392.pdf", "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2016_e/wts2016_e.pdf", "http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-steadies-as-putin-effect-fizzles-out", "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/quarterly_trade_e.xls", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/406112/Iran-ready-to-raise-oil-output-to-4m-bpd-depending-on-demand", "http://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-changes-since-1976/", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-09-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/277

True

2016-11-30

Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer "No" with an end date of 30 November 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> Turkey faces a number of economic challenges that put it at risk for capital flight (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/72c18c2c-554a-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/fear-of-capital-outflow-growing-in-turkeys-economic-circles.aspx?pageID=449&nID=87498&NewsCatID=467" target="_blank">Hurriyet Daily</a>). For more information on capital controls, see <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/capital-controls" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/55-will-malaysia-impose-capital-controls-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/90-will-either-turkey-or-russia-officially-suspend-or-cancel-the-akkuyu-nuclear-power-plant-project-before-the-end-of-2016" target = "_blank">Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?</a>

2016-12-06

gjopen

["http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/turkey", "http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/08/22/following-july-15-turkey-will-transform-into-one-of-the-most-developed-democracies-in-the-world", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question-deputy-pm-simsek.aspx?pageID=517&amp;nID=101863&amp;NewsCatID=345", "http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/176053/turkey-in-pursuit-of-24b-foreign-investment", "http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2654978.html", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_control", "http://bloom.bg/2dh4qmo", "http://m.yenisafak.com/en/economy/turkeys-economy-records-over-3-percent-growth-2528892", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question-deputy-pm-simsek.aspx?pageID=238&amp;nID=101863&amp;NewsCatID=345", "http://aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question/611713", "http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21598649-bail-out-working-bail-isnt-injured-island", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/06/economist-explains-21", "http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/57200/31270", "http://pulitzercenter.org/reporting/welcome-demokrasi-how-erdogan-got-more-popular-ever", "http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20160809/1044094924/putin-ankara-akkuyu-stream.html", "http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-OEDTAY6K50XT01-67F2N5LCR7CTCB4H9G8D703SI4", "http://aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkeys-current-account-deficit-falls-in-july/643661", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-idUSKCN11F0RV?il=0", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-parliament-votes-to-suspend-talks-on-turkey-joining-the-eu-1479989641", "https://sputniknews.com/business/201610291046874500-erdogan-turkish-economy/", "http://m.sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160901/1044832084/turkey-china-nuclear.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/fce064c9-d261-3123-a8af-5e45f7677115", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-erdogan-idUSKCN11Z0XP?il=0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-24

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/84

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process?

binary

Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are official candidates for EU membership (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>). In March 2015, Iceland withdrew from the EU membership process (<a href = "http://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/iceland-officially-drops-eu-membership-bid/"target = "_blank">Euractiv</a>, <a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/detailed-country-information/iceland/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>), and the UK's vote to leave the EU has heightened concerns that enlargement may stall. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia did not announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-08

gjopen

["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-idUSKCN1AX0RG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-merkel/in-shift-merkel-backs-end-to-eu-turkey-membership-talks-idUSKCN1BE15B?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-parliament-idUSKBN19R194", "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/04/10/ewb-interview-genoveva-ruiz-calavera-eu-accession-process-is-strategic-investment-in-peace/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/495893", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/09/08/534495/Turkey-EU-children-game", "https://www.rferl.org/a/macedonia-at-a-crossroad-explainer-violence/28457721.html", "https://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2017/10/15/turkey-determined-to-maintain-eu-membership-goals-deputy-pm-says", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-minister-idUSKBN1871XA", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-turkey/in-warning-to-ankara-eu-cuts-funds-for-turkeys-membership-bid-idUSKBN1DU2D4", "http://www.dw.com/en/erdogan-turkey-no-longer-needs-eu-membership-but-will-not-abandon-talks/a-40771731", "http://alde.eu/en/news/957-respect-of-human-rights-and-the-rule-of-law-must-be-at-the-core-of-the-new-eu-turkey-agenda/", "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/05/03/hahn-if-the-violence-occurs-again-it-will-endanger-macedonias-path-to-the-eu/", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/most-eu-hopefuls-might-not-be-ready-to-join-before-2050-study-finds/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/495910", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Recent_developments", "http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/politics/2017/05/09/turkey-desires-to-continue-process-of-eu-accession-erdog_c6a290d6-617b-477f-b019-7939715b091c.html", "http://www.politico.eu/article/albania-prime-minister-edi-rama-eu-faces-nightmare-if-balkans-denied/", "http://www.politico.eu/article/euroskeptic-young-europeans-poll-yougov-youths-eu/", "http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/may/1/recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-hold-referendum-eu-mem/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-parliament-idUSKBN19R194?il=0", "https://www.ft.com/content/7350d242-36fd-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/500566", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2017-08-02/turkey-and-eus-diplomatic-stalemate?cid=%3Fcid%3Dsoc-twitter-eu_turkey_diplomatic_stalemate_paywall_free-080217", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-idUSKBN17Y0U0"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-01-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/386

True

2017-08-08

Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election?

binary

Uhuru Kenyatta will seek re-election in August 2017 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12629/politics-unusual?navigation=true"target=_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-16/kenya-s-elections-who-s-who-guide-to-the-main-political-players"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Recommended Questions: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/462-will-turkey-s-upcoming-constitutional-referendum-pass"target=_blank">Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/391-will-angela-merkel-be-elected-as-chancellor-of-germany-after-the-2017-bundestag-election"target="_blank">Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/357-before-1-july-2017-will-a-date-be-set-for-early-general-elections-in-the-united-kingdom"target="_blank">Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom?</a> Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner of Kenya's 2017 election. This question closed on "a) yes," with and end date of 11 August 2017 <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-08-14

gjopen

["http://africanarguments.org/2017/07/12/kenyatta-vs-odinga-a-study-in-contrasts/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/kenyan-opposition-refuses-to-sign-off-on-election-charade", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250012/ipsos-and-infotrak-differ-yet-again-on-who-will-win-presidential-election", "http://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/news/uhuru-plans-salvage-campaign-shunning-tv-debate/", "https://kenopalo.com/2017/05/31/uhuru-kenyatta-ahead-of-raila-odinga-in-the-first-post-nomination-poll/", "http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Presidential-debate-Uhuru-cancels-Samburu-tour/1064-4029880-nb81rk/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40774938", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/506525", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5495/Will-Uhuru-Kenyatta-be-re-elected-president-of-Kenya-in-2017#data", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/02/africa/kenya-election-guide/index.html", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/247833-uhuru-lures-north-eastern-voters-multi-billion-projects.html", "http://rasqoh.com/a-presidency-under-siege-will-uhuru-kenyatta-win-reelection/", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/247608-confusion-woman-discovers-live-snake-home-door-calls-police.html", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/247484-second-opinion-poll-raila-lead-uhuru-kenyatta.html", "http://bit.ly/2tDJIjP", "http://africanarguments.org/2017/07/10/kenya-2017-elections-will-be-like-none-before-heres-why/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201707110217.html", "http://bit.ly/2vNogdS", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/world/africa/kenya-election-kenyatta-odinga.html?_r=0", "https://www.johnnybet.com/2017-kenya-presidential-election-predictions", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250136/opinion-poll-puts-uhuru-kenyatta-in-the-lead-with-53pc", "http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/07/kenya-president-kenyatta-skips-presidential-debate-170725045114754.html", "http://www.dw.com/en/kenya-fears-of-rigging-ahead-of-election/a-39612229", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/248083-kdf-reacts-raila-releases-documents-claiming-military-rig-elections.html", "https://www.cfr.org/blog-post/polls-tighten-run-kenyas-presidential-election"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-04

1.0

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["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.785], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-08", 0.8]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/460

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1011

True

2018-03-14

Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?

binary

Angela Merkel, the current chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union party, announced that she would seek re-election in 2017 (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/20/angela-merkel-expected-stand-for-re-election-germany"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/angela-merkel-to-stand-for-re-election-as-german-chancellor-1479650799"target = "_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/germanys-merkel-set-to-win-fourth-term-in-a-messy-election-analyst.html"target = "_blank">CNBC</a>). Gemany will hold federal elections in 2017, after which the new Bundestag will elect the chancellor (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-09-21/how-germany-s-election-system-works-what-to-watch-for-today"target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/bundestag-elections-2017-an-overview-of-all-the-changes-to-national-politics/a-19548800"target = "_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). <b>Clarification:</b> This question will remain open until Germany's Bundestag elects the Chancellor or a new election is called. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/383-when-will-the-next-italian-general-election-occur"target = "_blank">when the next Italian General Election will occur</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353-before-1-october-2017-will-ban-ki-moon-announce-that-he-is-running-for-president-of-south-korea"target = "_blank">Ban Ki Moon will announce that he is running for President of South Korea</a>.} <hr> Angela Merkel was elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election (<a href = "https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/europe/merkel-chancellor-fourth-term-germany-intl/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 14 March 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-03-15

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-01-24

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/391

True

2018-01-01

Will a loya jirga convene in Afghanistan before 2018?

binary

The September 2014 agreement that produced Afghanistan's current national unity government called for the convocation of a loya jirga (<a href = "http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-loya-jirga-explainer/25174483.html"target="_blank">RFERL</a>), but the loya jirga has not yet convenved and the stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-31/afghan-leaders-political-rift-risks-deepening-instability"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/justice-minister-says-elections-first-then-constitutional-loya-j"target="_blank">Tolo News</a>, <a href = "http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/taliban-in-afghanistan"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> A loya jirga did not convene in Afghanistan. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/485-will-a-loya-jirga-convene-in-afghanistan-before-2018/www.menafn.com/1096145878/Afghanistan--Only-traditional-Loya-Jirga-can-end-current-crisis-Rana-Think-Tank+&amp;cd=1&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=us", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/hekmatyars-return-to-kabul-background-reading-by-aan/", "http://www.menafn.com/1096145878/Afghanistan--Only-traditional-Loya-Jirga-can-end-current-crisis-Rana-Think-Tank+&amp;cd=1&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=us", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40170596", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/working-in-a-grey-zone-icrc-forced-to-scale-back-its-work-in-afghanistan/", "http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/bill-roggio-taliban-overruns-2-districts-in-southern-afghanistan/", "http://afghanistantimes.af/religious-scholars-demand-loya-jirga-call-to-solve-crisis/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/world/middleeast/mattis-iran-deal-trump.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;amp", "http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2017/02/09/loya-jirga-be-convened-amend-constitution-ceo", "https://www.pajhwok.com/en/2017/08/24/loya-jirga-next-year-after-elections-ceo-office", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1194446/world", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-looks-at-scaling-back-u-s-military-presence-in-afghanistan-1501426803", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/resettling-nearly-half-a-million-afghans-in-nangrahar-the-consequences-of-the-mass-return-of-refugees/", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistan-election-conundrum-2-a-tight-date-and-a-debate-about-technology/", "https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mattis_06-13-17.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/political-storm-brews-in-afghanistan-as-officials-from-ethnic-minorities-break-with-president-call-for-reforms-and-protests/2017/07/01/ab9419ea-5e6f-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_story.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/sacked-afghan-minister-symbolizes-the-governments-precarious-position/", "http://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/govt-fires-two-supporting-move-hold-traditional-loya-jirga", "http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2017/05/31/mps-lose-patience-govt-over-cabinet-picks", "http://www.tolonews.com/node/49416", "http://www.khaama.com/karzai-to-ask-govt-leaders-for-loya-jirga-regarding-new-us-strategy-03597", "http://afghanistantimes.af/running-parliamentary-district-council-elections-impossible-this-year/", "http://aan.af/2hKNy62", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/mehwar-e-mardom-e-afghanistan-new-opposition-group-with-an-ambiguous-link-to-karzai/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-security-idUSKBN18U05U"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/485

True

2017-03-01

Will SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017?

binary

This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017. <sub> See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The new <a href="http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy" target="_blank">Falcon Heavy space launch vehicle</a> is a heavy-lift version of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and is crucial for achieving the company’s goal of sending a cargo capsule to Mars in 2018 (<a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/1/11549456/spacex-falcon-9-heavy-launch-capabilities-weight-mars" target="_blank">The Verge 1</a>, <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/27/11514844/spacex-mars-mission-date-red-dragon-rocket-elon-musk" target="_blank">2</a>). The initial launch, originally scheduled for summer 2016, has been pushed back to December 2016 (<a href="http://spaceflight101.com/falcon-9-rocket-completes-static-fire-test-for-next-high-energy-satellite-delivery-mission/" target="_blank">Spaceflight 101</a>). For more information on low earth orbit see: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Earth_orbit" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>, <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/09/whats-special-low-earth-orbit/" target="_blank">Wired</a>. Clarification Issued 6/22/2016: Falcon Heavy reaching an LEO altitude will resolve this as "yes". _{Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/167" target="_blank">Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/113" target="_blank">Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/184" target="_blank">Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?</a>}

2017-03-03

gjopen

["http://www.ibtimes.co.in/spacex-gets-set-launch-worlds-most-powerful-rocket-falcon-heavy-711230", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/22/516614289/spacex-cargo-craft-fails-to-dock-with-space-station-will-try-again", "http://www.itechpost.com/articles/73853/20170112/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-details-announced.htm", "https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/02/22/spacex_capsule_iss_error/", "http://spacenews.com/faa-grants-license-for-spacex-falcon-9-return-to-flight/", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a24581/spacex-explosion-new-launch-date/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy", "http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/space-exploration-technologies/spacex-still-eyeing-fall-launch-maiden-flight-falcon-heavy/", "http://observer.com/2017/01/spacex-mars-falcon-launch/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/14/science/spacex-falcon-9-iridium-elon-musk.html?emc=edit_th_20170115&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nlid=77825025", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/science/spacex-launch-kennedy-space-center.html?emc=edit_th_20170220&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nlid=77825025", "https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/09/14/falcon-9-could-launch-again-in-november-falcon-heavy-debut-slips-to-2017/", "http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/spacex-to-resume-launches-as-early-as-january-8-846526019725", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches", "http://www.ibtimes.co.in/spacexs-falcon-9-rocket-launch-schedule-block-5-falcon-heavy-will-revolutionise-future-flights-713315", "https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/833327256239878145", "http://fortune.com/2017/02/07/spacex-rocket-launch-falcon-9/", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a25035/flaws-in-spacex-falcon-9-rockets/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/spacex-plans-to-resume-rocket-launches-1483363705", "http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38753819", "http://www.teslarati.com/dont-expect-spacex-land-falcon-9-rocket-next-launch-mission/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-spacex-idUSKBN14Y0H3", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-18/spacex-halts-launch-of-rocket-10-seconds-before-planned-liftoff", "http://www.ibtimes.co.in/reason-why-spacex-has-deferred-mars-mission-launch-date-falcon-heavy-carry-dragon-spacecraft-716540"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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0.045], ["2018-01-13", 0.045], ["2018-01-14", 0.045], ["2018-01-14", 0.03], ["2018-01-14", 0.04], ["2018-01-15", 0.04], ["2018-01-15", 0.04], ["2018-01-16", 0.04], ["2018-01-16", 0.04], ["2018-01-17", 0.04], ["2018-01-17", 0.04], ["2018-01-17", 0.04], ["2018-01-18", 0.04], ["2018-01-18", 0.04], ["2018-01-19", 0.03], ["2018-01-19", 0.03], ["2018-01-19", 0.03], ["2018-01-20", 0.03], ["2018-01-20", 0.03], ["2018-01-21", 0.03], ["2018-01-22", 0.03], ["2018-01-22", 0.03], ["2018-01-23", 0.03], ["2018-01-24", 0.03], ["2018-01-24", 0.03], ["2018-01-25", 0.03], ["2018-01-26", 0.015], ["2018-01-26", 0.015], ["2018-01-27", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.03], ["2018-01-28", 0.03], ["2018-01-29", 0.03], ["2018-01-29", 0.03], ["2018-01-30", 0.03], ["2018-01-30", 0.015], ["2018-01-30", 0.015], ["2018-01-31", 0.02], ["2018-01-31", 0.02], ["2018-01-31", 0.02], ["2018-01-31", 0.03], ["2018-02-01", 0.03], ["2018-02-02", 0.03], ["2018-02-02", 0.03], ["2018-02-03", 0.015], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-03", 0.01], ["2018-02-04", 0.01], ["2018-02-04", 0.01], ["2018-02-05", 0.01], ["2018-02-05", 0.01], ["2018-02-06", 0.01], ["2018-02-07", 0.01], ["2018-02-07", 0.005], ["2018-02-07", 0.005], ["2018-02-08", 0.005], ["2018-02-08", 0.005], ["2018-02-09", 0.005], ["2018-02-10", 0.01], ["2018-02-10", 0.01], ["2018-02-11", 0.01], ["2018-02-11", 0.01], ["2018-02-11", 0.01], ["2018-02-11", 0.01], ["2018-02-12", 0.01], ["2018-02-12", 0.01], ["2018-02-13", 0.01], ["2018-02-13", 0.01], ["2018-02-14", 0.01], ["2018-02-14", 0.01], ["2018-02-15", 0.01], ["2018-02-15", 0.01], ["2018-02-16", 0.01], ["2018-02-16", 0.01], ["2018-02-16", 0.01], ["2018-02-16", 0.01], ["2018-02-17", 0.01], ["2018-02-18", 0.01], ["2018-02-18", 0.01], ["2018-02-19", 0.01], ["2018-02-20", 0.01], ["2018-02-20", 0.01], ["2018-02-21", 0.01], ["2018-02-21", 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0.015], ["2018-03-14", 0.015], ["2018-03-14", 0.015], ["2018-03-15", 0.015], ["2018-03-15", 0.015], ["2018-03-16", 0.015], ["2018-03-16", 0.015], ["2018-03-17", 0.015], ["2018-03-17", 0.015], ["2018-03-18", 0.02], ["2018-03-18", 0.02], ["2018-03-18", 0.025], ["2018-03-18", 0.025], ["2018-03-20", 0.025], ["2018-03-21", 0.025], ["2018-03-22", 0.025], ["2018-03-22", 0.025], ["2018-03-23", 0.025], ["2018-03-23", 0.03], ["2018-03-23", 0.03], ["2018-03-24", 0.03], ["2018-03-25", 0.03], ["2018-03-25", 0.03], ["2018-03-26", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-28", 0.03], ["2018-03-28", 0.03], ["2018-03-29", 0.03], ["2018-03-29", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.03], ["2018-03-31", 0.03], ["2018-03-31", 0.03], ["2018-04-01", 0.03], ["2018-04-01", 0.03], ["2018-04-01", 0.03], ["2018-04-01", 0.03]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/835

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

[["2018-04-02", 0.45], ["2018-04-02", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.18], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.245], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.14], ["2018-04-03", 0.305], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.25], ["2018-04-06", 0.25], ["2018-04-07", 0.25], ["2018-04-07", 0.2], ["2018-04-07", 0.2], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.25], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.16], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.07], ["2018-04-13", 0.07], ["2018-04-14", 0.09], ["2018-04-14", 0.09], ["2018-04-15", 0.13], ["2018-04-16", 0.13], ["2018-04-19", 0.13], ["2018-04-19", 0.13], ["2018-04-20", 0.13], ["2018-04-21", 0.11], ["2018-04-25", 0.11], ["2018-04-25", 0.11], ["2018-04-28", 0.11], ["2018-04-29", 0.1], ["2018-04-29", 0.07], ["2018-05-01", 0.07], ["2018-05-01", 0.085], ["2018-05-02", 0.085], ["2018-05-02", 0.06], ["2018-05-02", 0.035], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.07], ["2018-05-09", 0.1], ["2018-05-09", 0.1], ["2018-05-11", 0.125], ["2018-05-11", 0.1], ["2018-05-12", 0.1], ["2018-05-14", 0.1], ["2018-05-14", 0.07], ["2018-05-16", 0.07], ["2018-05-17", 0.04], ["2018-05-17", 0.04], ["2018-05-22", 0.04], ["2018-05-22", 0.02], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-27", 0.005], ["2018-05-28", 0.005], ["2018-05-29", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.0], ["2018-06-03", 0.0], ["2018-06-04", 0.0], ["2018-06-08", 0.0], ["2018-06-11", 0.0], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-26", 0.005], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-30", 0.06], ["2018-07-01", 0.06]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/907

True

2017-07-01

Will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan before 1 July 2017?

binary

Ghani became president of Afghanistan in 2014 as part of national unity government under a deal brokered by the US, but that deal is set to expire in September 2016 and tensions between rival factions have led to some calls for a change in the composition or form of the Afghan government (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghan-political-crisis-intensifies-as-two-year-anniversary-nears/2016/08/12/3575a5aa-6085-11e6-9fd0-0b47b4fac0a4_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/aides-afghan-governments-chief-could-withdraw-support-105904660.html" target="_blank">Yahoo! News</a>, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/two-years-after-controversial-afghan-elections-promised-reforms-remain-stalled/3462811.html" target="_blank">VOA News</a>). In the event that Ghani reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Ghani returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/267-when-will-pierre-nkurunziza-cease-to-be-president-of-burundi" target="_blank">When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target="_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <hr> President Ghani remains the president of Afghanistan. This question closed as "b) No" with an end date of 30 June 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-07-06

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-idUSKBN15F17I", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/10/world/asia/john-kerry-arrives-in-afghanistan-with-message-of-support.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/afghanistan-seeks-3b-aid-corruption-concerns-persist-42522878", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40170596", "http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/03/an-afghanistan-strategy-primer-for-the-trump-administration/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-parliament-idUSKBN13806Z?il=0", "http://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/govt-moves-hold-peace-talks-afghan-envoy", "http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/us-backs-indian-position-on-crossborder-terrorism/article9212576.ece", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/afghan-leaders-trade-barbs-government-splits-widen-162016067.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/challenging-the-u-s-moscow-pushes-into-afghanistan-1485513002?mod=e2fb", "https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mattis_06-13-17.pdf", "http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/02/01/afghan-government-and-taliban/", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/jan/30/afghanistan-government-open-to-talks-with-taliban-envoy-1565224.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/defense-secretary-carter-makes-surprise-visit-afghanistan-054354459--politics.html", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistans-national-unity-government-rift-2-the-problems-that-will-not-go-away/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/23/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-helmand-sangin.html", "http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1764403960&amp;Country=Afghanistan&amp;topic=Politics&amp;subtopic=Forecast&amp;subsubtopic=Country+outlook", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2014/09/ashraf-ghani-declared-winner-afghan-poll-2014921133512174572.html", "http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/04/ashraf-ghani-afghanistans-theorist-in-chief", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/trump-admin-inherits-continued-insecurity-corruption-afghanistan/?utm_source=Freedom+Mail&amp;utm_campaign=35efc83535-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_01_11&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_b5e6e0e9ea-35efc83535-46174369", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Packer", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/world/asia/afghanistan-corruption-financial-disclosure.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-afghanistan-idUSKBN13T0CM", "http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/26/obamas-afghan-strategy-hinges-on-a-crazy-man-with-an-army-threatening-civil-war/#ixzz4OsA324PZ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-security-idUSKBN18U05U"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-09-13

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/281

True

2016-12-31

Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?

binary

This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. There were 361,678 arrivals by sea in 2016 (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php"target = "_blank">UNHCR</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Europe continues to face a refugee crisis, with over one million refugees and migrants having arrived by sea in 2015 (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/12/30/world/europe/ap-eu-europe-migrants.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.iom.int/news/iom-monitors-mediterranean-arrivals-fatalities" target = "_blank">International Organization for Migration</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911" target = "_blank">BBC</a>). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php" target = "_blank">UNHCR</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will close once the data for 2016 are released. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/14-will-africa-remain-free-of-the-wild-poliovirus-through-31-december-2016" target = "_blank">Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target = "_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77-before-1-august-2016-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-isis" target = "_blank">Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?</a> Updated on 4/18/16: The UNHCR link was updated from http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html to http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php.

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://fortune.com/2016/07/30/juncker-migrant-deal-turkey/", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3708369/Where-s-money-Turkish-president-Erdogan-accuses-EU-breaking-pact-migrants-says-owed-2-billion-stopping-entering-Europe.html", "http://naija247news.com/2016/07/merkel-firmly-rejects-calls-reverse-refugee-policy-attacks/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/un-cuts-2016-estimate-for-refugee-arrivals-in-europe-via-greece/", "http://www.vox.com/2016/7/21/12248258/turkey-coup-europe-eu-refugee-migrant-crisis", "http://bazonline.ch/ausland/europa/Tuerkei-stellt-Ultimatum-fuer-Visafreiheit/story/10889764", "http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/turkish-coup-drives-new-wave-of-migrants-across-the-aegean-p750wjxjq", "http://app.ft.com/cms/s/63f43eac-54c1-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60.html?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/FirstFTEurope/product", "http://www.aina.org/news/20160809122436.htm", "http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-steinmeier-says-no-visa-talks-until-turkey-meets-criteria/a-19460078", "http://app.ft.com/cms/s/48882f9a-5d48-11e6-a72a-bd4bf1198c63.html?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/FirstFTAmericas/product", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3763499/Thousands-migrants-fished-Med-just-hours-Charity-launches-major-rescue-operation-desperate-refugees-aim-Europe.html", "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/country.php?id=83", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/09/15/UN-235-000-migrants-ready-to-head-to-italy.html", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/210063/article/ekathimerini/news/in-first-half-of-2016-record-number-of-migrants-die-trying-to-cross-mediterranean-iom-says", "http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/migratory-routes-map", "http://www.einnews.com/pr_news/334341255/mediterranean-migrant-arrivals-in-2016-230-885-deaths-2-920", "https://www.iom.int/news/migrant-arrivals-mediterranean-reach-264513-deaths-sea-3151", "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php", "http://voiceobserver.com/2016/07/26/germany-syrian-asylum-seeker-blows-himself-up-wounding-15.html", "https://euobserver.com/migration/134487", "http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/686608/Migrant-crisis-worse-politicians-dither-thousands-more-flood-Europe", "http://www.politico.eu/article/peter-altmaier-chancellery-no-reason-for-plan-b-on-turkey-migration-deal-angela-merkel-adviser-immigration-refugees/?utm_content=bufferfae80&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkish-president-accuses-eu-breaking-pact-migrants-40879501", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-germany-idUSKCN1021CL"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-01-05

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106

True

2016-12-31

Will the European Union suspend any of Poland's membership rights in 2016?

binary

This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Poland's constitutional crisis has spurred the European Commission to undertake a formal review that could lead to a suspension of some of Poland's EU membership rights, including voting rights (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/13/ec-to-investigate-polish-governments-controversial-new-laws" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/01/21/will-the-e-u-suspend-poland-here-are-3-reasons-it-wont/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). For more information on the dispute over Poland's Constitutional Tribunal see <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/poland-constitution-crisis-idUSL8N14B2UG20151222" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3a94a6f5bfdd4e009f7c2c5146d7f492/polands-top-court-rule-constitutional-crisis" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/polands-constitutional-standoff-continues-1457799887" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>. For more information on the European Union's process for sanctioning states that have failed to uphold EU values see <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A12012M007" target="_blank">EUR-Lex</a>. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/30" target="_blank">Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/149" target="_blank">Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["http://verfassungsblog.de/can-poland-be-sanctioned-by-the-eu-not-unless-hungary-is-sanctioned-too/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/poland-plots-endgame-in-democracy-row-as-eu-obsesses-over-brexit", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-faces-difficult-choice-as-poland-fires-latest-salvo-in-rule-of-law-dispute-1477665662", "https://www.neweurope.eu/article/poland-no-point-dialogue-venice-commission/", "https://euobserver.com/news/135698", "http://m.dw.com/en/council-of-europe-reiterates-admonishment-of-poland-over-constitutional-standoff/a-36049470", "https://euobserver.com/institutional/135716", "http://www.thenews.pl/Portal/ExternalSearchen.aspx?q=EU", "http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/10/26/eu-parliament-debate-undemocratic-reforms-poland-hungary/", "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-2643_en.htm", "http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/278484,Polish-gov%E2%80%99t-no-legal-possibilities-for-EC-recommendations-implementation", "http://verfassungsblog.de/systemic-threat-to-the-rule-of-law-in-poland-what-should-the-commission-do-next/", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-poland-eu-kaczynski-idUKKCN12A0JL", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/european-rights-body-checks-on-polands-rule-of-law-again/2016/09/12/d9d4b456-78db-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html", "http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/275645,Polish-govt-to-end-cooperation-with-Venice-Commission", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council", "https://rsf.org/en/news/rsf-calls-eu-financial-sanctions-against-poland", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/13/thousands-protest-in-poland-against-rightwing-government", "https://www.eureporter.co/frontpage/2016/10/28/mfa-makes-statement-on-polish-governments-response-to-commission-recommadation/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-eu-rule-of-law-idUSKBN12E1P7?il=0", "http://www.mfa.gov.pl/en/news/mfa_statement_on_the_polish_government_s_response_to_commission_recommendation_of_27_07_2016", "http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:12012M007", "http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20161020IPR47863/meps-call-for-eu-democracy-rule-of-law-and-fundamental-rights-watchdog", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-polish-plumbers-who-annoy-brexit-supporters-come-from-towns-like-this-one/2016/07/10/0ff923fc-3d4d-11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html", "http://www.eui.eu/SeminarsAndEvents/Events/2016/November/EUMechanismonDemocracytheRuleofLawandFundamentalRights.aspx"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-05

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/174

True

2018-06-30

Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities?

binary

On 21 March 2018, the European Commission proposed new rules on the taxation of digital business activities of large tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/21/facebook-google-and-amazon-to-pay-fair-tax-under-eu-plans" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/fair-taxation-digital-economy_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). For more information on EU directives and the Council of the European Union's role in the legislative process see: <a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/institutions-bodies/council-eu_en" target="_blank">The Council of the European Union Overview</a>, <a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/eu-law/legal-acts_en" target="_blank">official documentation on regulations and directives</a>, and <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/external/html/legislativeprocedure/default_en.htm" target="_blank">documentation on legislative procedure</a>. The adoption of a directive on taxation of digital business activities via the enhanced cooperation procedure would count (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/enhanced_cooperation.html). <hr> The Council of the European Union did not adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-05-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/952

True

2017-10-01

Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?

binary

China and the GCC started negotiating a free-trade agreement in 2004, and in early 2016 the parties accelerated their talks in an effort to conclude the deal (<a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/china-and-gulf-states-target-free-trade-deal-end-year-1187614884" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>, <a href="http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/201601/30498_1.html" target="_blank">China FTA Network news release</a>, <a href="http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/topic/engcc.shtml" target="_blank">China FTA Network news archive</a>). For this question to resolve negotiators must reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/277-will-the-merchandise-value-of-iran-s-imports-and-exports-in-2016-exceed-140-billion" target="_blank">Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a> <hr> China and the members of the GCC have not completed negotiations on an FTA. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-04

gjopen

["http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-qatar-explainer-2017-story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-vietnam-idUSKCN18H02B", "http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/ahead-of-king-s-visit-china-hopes-saudi-iran-can-resolve-problems-1.1990244", "https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/07/17/china-involved-gulf-crisis/", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/saudi-bahrain-egypt-uae-qatar-terror/index.html", "http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uns-zeid-warns-gulf-states-respect-rights-qatar-row-399029839", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/21/the-gulf-states-are-turning-to-asia-in-a-big-way-heres-why-it-matters/", "https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/94328173/terence-obrien-changing-winds-of-strategy", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/21/how-china-is-shifting-toward-the-middle-east/", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gulf-qatar-idUKKBN19A1BS", "http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-03/20/content_28608392.htm", "http://www.albawaba.com/business/gcc-launches-anti-dumping-probe-against-chinese-steel-companies-968052", "http://www.emirates247.com/news/government/arab-strategy-forum-calls-for-nationals-to-forecast-future-challenges-2017-04-02-1.650668", "http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/newsrelease/press/201703/20170302540791.shtml", "http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/bahrain-detains-citizen-sympathising-qatar-agency-reports-458828410", "http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/regions/gulf-region/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman.html", "http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-China-The-Next-Key-Influencer-In-The-Middle-East.html", "http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-gcc-trade-talks-halted-following-gulf-crisis-893229378", "https://jingdaily.com/gulf-cooperation-council-looks-to-china-for-future-tourism-growth/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/qatar-reminds-gulf-critics-of-9-11-as-crisis-enters-third-week", "http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/201612/33922_1.html", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/16/c_136288477.htm", "http://english.aawsat.com/theaawsat/business/uae-china-agree-complete-free-trade-gulf-states", "http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1640_1.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-09-13

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279

True

2018-06-26

In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act?

binary

In 2016, the National Institute of Family and Life Advocates (NIFLA) challenged the constitutionality of California's FACT Act's requirement that licensed healthcare providers post notices about the availability of state abortion programs, asking for a preliminary injunction of the law. That injunction was denied; a decision which was upheld by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (<a href = "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-1140">Oyez</a>) (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/16-1140-op-bel-9th-cir.pdf"target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). NIFLA is challenging this ruling in the Supreme Court (<a href ="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-institute-family-life-advocates-v-becerra/">SCOTUS Blog</a>) (<a href ="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/legislators-advocates-prepare-ahead-abortion-case"target="_blank">Roll Call</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 26 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1140_5368.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>

2018-06-27

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-03-14

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/899

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/976

True

2016-12-30

Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?

binary

This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 29 December 2016. The US imposed sanctions on Russia for malicious cyber activity on that date (<a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/fact-sheet-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity-and" target = "_blank">The White House</a> , <a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20161229.aspx" target = "_blank">The Treasury</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-cyber-idUSKBN14I1TY" target = "_blank"> Reuters</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Although the US and China agreed to cooperate on cyber security issues during Xi's visit to Washington, President Obama's threats in the wake of the OPM data breach made it clear that the United States is committed to responding to cyber warfare and cyber espionage (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-china-vow-not-to-engage-in-economic-cyberespionage/2015/09/25/90e74b6a-63b9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/17/us/politics/obama-hints-at-sanctions-against-china-over-cyberattacks.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). The OPM data breach also propelled cyber security to the top of Europe's agenda (<a href = "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-10-500_en.htm?locale=en" target = "_blank">EUROPA</a>, <a href = "https://euobserver.com/opinion/129560" target = "_blank">EUobserver</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/113-will-there-be-any-publicly-disclosed-cyber-attacks-on-nuclear-facilities-before-the-end-of-2016" target = "_blank">Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/137-will-the-us-or-the-un-impose-any-new-sanctions-on-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?</a>

2017-01-03

gjopen

["https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-blames-putins-personal-grudge-against-her-for-election-interference/2016/12/16/12f36250-c3be-11e6-8422-eac61c0ef74d_story.html?utm_term=.8e7a87acd2b8", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-hacking.html", "http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/10/16/pence-acknowledges-evidence-russia-behind-cyber-attacks/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/03/22/obama-is-making-bushs-big-mistake-on-russia/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38521503", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/02/spicer-trump-has-own-intel-obama-administration-reports-not-gospel.html", "http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/russia-withheld-hacked-rnc-emails-to-help-trumps-campaign-report/", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/08/us/politics/political-divide-on-campuses-hardens-after-trumps-victory.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/world/europe/prague-russian-hacker.html?_r=0", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/01/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-engaging-significant-m", "http://www.computerworld.com/article/3086314/security/russian-hackers-were-behind-dnc-breach-says-fidelis-cybersecurity.html", "http://www.aol.com/article/2016/02/05/barbara-bush-putin-the-killer-endorsed-trump-and-hes-the-worst/21308425/", "http://thehill.com/policy/international/201132-republicans-demand-obama-get-tougher-with-putin-on-ukraine", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-35413134", "http://www.darkreading.com/risk-management/china-cyber-espionage-threatens-us-report-says/d/d-id/1085047", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-hackers-penetrated-us-electricity-grid-through-a-utility-in-vermont/2016/12/30/8fc90cc4-ceec-11e6-b8a2-8c2a61b0436f_story.html", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-officials-putin-personally-involved-u-s-election-hack-n696146", "http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc-news/watch/paul-ryan-russia-sanctions-overdue-843731523702", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/14/dnc-hillary-clinton-emails-hacked-russia-aide-typo-investigation-finds", "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspx", "http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/news-anchor-warns-russia-could-turn-us-radioactive-dust", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-cyber-ryan-idUSKBN14I1WJ", "http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/178256"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-12-15

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/97

True

2017-10-25

Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with "famine" and "Yemen" in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017?

binary

The <a href = "http://www.fews.net/about-us"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning Systems Network </a> provides early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity around the world. This question will resolve as "yes" if FEWS NET publishes one or more Food Security Alert(s) between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017 that includes the words "famine" and "Yemen" in its headline (<a href = "https://www.fews.net/search?date_range=All&field_report_type%5B%5D=78&keywords=&field_report_coverage_period_value=&field_report_coverage_period_value_1=&sort_by=field_report_coverage_period_value&sort_order=DESC&report_sort_by=DESC"target="_blank">FEWS</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> FEWS NET did not publish a Food Security Alert with "famine" and "Yemen" in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017. This question closed as "b) No," with an end date of 25 October 2017." <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-31

gjopen

["http://www.fews.net/east-africa/yemen/key-message-update/september-2017-1", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/un-chief-says-donors-kept-famine-at-bay--but-aid-needed/2017/10/12/cfc6d678-af9a-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_story.html?utm_term=.100fcc7fabf5", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/27/yemen-coalitions-blocking-aid-fuel-endangers-civilians", "https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171001-turkish-red-cresent-sends-food-aid-packages-to-yemen/", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57877#.WeEPS0wfl-U", "http://uk.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/yemen-saudi-blockade", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57675#.WdQ112hSyM8", "https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/fao-and-world-bank-launch-36-million-programme-scale-famine-fighting-yemen", "https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/yemen-brink-humanitarian-calamity-says-un-migration-agency-director-general-sana", "https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1866/yemen_ce_fs17_09-30-2017.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi-un/saudi-arabia-says-u-n-report-on-yemen-inaccurate-and-misleading-idUSKBN1CB2BL?il=0", "http://www.fews.net/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41501672", "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uk-block-un-probe-into-yemen-war-after-saudi-arabia-threatens-cut-trade-ties-1641054", "http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1041473/icode/", "https://osesgy.unmissions.org/briefing-un-special-envoy-yemen-open-session-security-council", "https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000022394/download/?_ga=2.78516564.195614532.1506454117-1545756473.1480975899", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/07/c_136663828.htm", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/yemen", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/yemen/food-security-outlook-update/august-2017", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/04/20/saudi-government-has-vast-network-of-pr-lobby-firms-in-u-s/", "https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Yemen%20Fact%20Sheet_September%202017.pdf", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/yemen-cholera-outbreak-hit-million-2018-170929140409261.html", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-yemen-security/southern-yemen-leader-sees-independence-referendum-parliament-body-idUKKBN1CJ06T", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/586673"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/545

True

2016-11-08

Will the Department of Justice indict Hillary Clinton before 8 November 2016?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November. The Department of Justice did not indict Hillary Clinton before November 8, 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> The Justice Department's investigation of Clinton over her use of a private email server continues (<a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-clinton-email-probe-20160327-story.html" target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/how-clintons-email-scandal-took-root/2016/03/27/ee301168-e162-11e5-846c-10191d1fc4ec_story.html" target="_blank"> Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124-who-will-win-the-2016-us-presidential-election" target="_blank">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/118" target="_blank">Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?</a>

2016-11-16

gjopen

["https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-director-james-b.-comey-on-the-investigation-of-secretary-hillary-clintons-use-of-a-personal-e-mail-system", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-completes-investigation-hillary-clintons-personal-email-server/story?id=40346712", "http://www.vox.com/2016/7/5/12096352/hillary-clinton-fbi-email", "http://www.burnhamgorokhov.com/federal-defense-information/understanding-federal-indictments-frequently-asked-questions/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/22/the-fbi-found-15000-emails-hillary-clinton-didnt-turn-over-uh-oh/?tid=sm_fb", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/31/house-republicans-want-new-doj-probe-of-clinton-foundation/", "http://www.brandeis.edu/legacyfund/bio.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/us/politics/hillary-clinton-loretta-lynch.html?smid=tw-share", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/fbi-director-james-comey-has-concluded-the-investigation-into-clintons-emails.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/273481", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_58", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/22/how-pentagon-punished-nsa-whistleblowers", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-won-t-recommend-clinton-be-indicted-over-private-email-use-1467731774", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/extremely-careless-but-fbi-advises-no-charges-for-clintons-emails/ar-AAi7Py6?li=BBnb7Kz&amp;ocid=SK2IDHP", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/12/house-gop-request-perjury-investigation-clinton-over-private-email-server.html", "http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/15pdf/15-474_ljgm.pdf", "http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36742095", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/us/politics/hillary-clinton-loretta-lynch.htm", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-07-05/comey-says-no-clinton-charges-recommended-despite-carelessness?cmpid=wsdemand", "https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=N00000019&amp;cycle=Career", "http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/16/abscam-agents-to-fbi-chief-bureaus-reputation-on-line-in-clinton-probe.html", "https://www.rt.com/usa/364586-comey-reopens-clinton-investigation/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/273796", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&amp;v=wbkS26PX4rc"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/172

True

2019-10-22

Will Justin Trudeau cease to be prime minister of Canada after the next federal election?

binary

<p>Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on 21 October 2019 (<a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/no-early-election-pm-vows-next-federal-vote-to-be-held-in-october-2019-1.4219081" target="_blank">CTV News</a>, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/harper-to-resign-as-prime-minister-next-week-just-before-trudeau-takes-office/" target="_blank">Maclean's</a>). The question will close as "no" if, once the election outcome is known, Trudeau retains the prime ministership. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p><p> </p>

2019-10-25

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2019-01-18

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1098

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://reliefweb.int/report/burundi/burundi-populations-risk-serious-concern-15-september-2017"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/631

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will the FCC cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act?

binary

Net neutrality made headlines in 2015 when the FCC issued rules that classified broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act, which limited their ability to block or prioritize some content over others (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/technology/net-neutrality-fcc-vote-internet-utility.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). The FCC has decided to revisit the issue (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/technology/net-neutrality.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) and invited interested parties to submit comments on the issue before a decision is made later this year (<a href = "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-344614A1.pdf"target="_blank">FCC</a>, <a href = "https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/search/filings?proceedings_name=17-108&sort=date_disseminated,DESC"target="_blank">FCC</a>, <a href = "http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-net-neutrality-fcc-vote-20170518-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The FCC did not cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-08

gjopen

["http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347869A1.pdf", "http://www.cnn.com/", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/recentReleases.do", "https://energycommerce.house.gov/news/press-release/next-week-subcommtech-hold-oversight-hearing-fcc-commissioners/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act/www.msnbc.com", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347868A1.pdf", "https://www.fcc.gov/news-events/events/2017/11/november-2017-open-commission-meeting", "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44356.pdf", "http://www.msnbc.com/", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1122/DOC-347927A1.pdf", "https://www.fcc.gov/about-fcc/rulemaking-process", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347875A1.pdf", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347902A1.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act/www.cnn.com", "https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/fcc-plans-to-vote-to-overturn-u-s-net-neutrality-rules-in-december-sources/", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-347927A1.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act/www.kcbs.com", "http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/washington/fcc-moving-repeal-bright-line-net-neutrality-rules/170253", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/technology/fcc-media-ownership-rules.html", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-347870A1.pdf", "http://www.kcbs.com/", "http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2017/11/21/trump-fcc-chair-unveils-plan-to-repeal-net-neutrality/", "https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/1113201502040/171113%20-%20CTIA%20Ex%20Parte.pdf", "http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/cfr/about.html", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/16/fcc-reportedly-planning-vote-that-could-kill-net-neutrality-next-month/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-02

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production exceed 4 million barrels per day?

binary

Since sanctions were lifted in early 2016, Iran has sharply increased its oil production (<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/16/investing/iran-pumping-lots-more-oil-sanctions/" target="_blank">CNN Money</a>), and the country is aiming to hit a rate of 4 million barrels per day in the near future (<a href="http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/28/477367/Iran-to-raise-oil-output-to-new-highs-soon" target="_blank">PressTV</a>). Question will be resolved using monthly data for "Iran, I.R." reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply: OPEC Crude Oil Production" section of <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm" target="_blank">OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. In the <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202016.pdf" target="_blank">October 2016 report</a>, the relevant data can be found in Table 5.6 on page 62. That report shows Iran producing an estimated 3.665 million barrels per day in September of 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and closed when the December data are released, typically in January. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/277" target="_blank">Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/303" target="_blank">Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?</a> <sub> <hr> Iran's monthly oil production did not exceed 4 million barrels per day in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-18

gjopen

["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-iran/iran-says-majority-of-opec-members-support-extending-oil-output-cuts-idUSKBN1DK0X2", "https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_crude_oil_production", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/asia-oil-appec-iran/iran-says-to-keep-crude-condensate-exports-at-around-2-6-mln-bpd-in-2017-idUKL4N1M62IQ", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202017.pdf", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil/table-opec-oil-output-rises-by-50000-bpd-in-september-reuters-survey-idUKL8N1MA38C", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-oil-exports/iran-crude-exports-hit-five-year-high-near-pre-sanctions-levels-source-idUSKCN11M0XL", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/71020/irans-first-ipc-based-oil-tender-to-be-finalized-in-8-months", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC%20MOMR%20November%202017.pdf", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil/table-opec-oil-output-falls-by-300000-bpd-in-november-reuters-survey-idUKL8N1O433T", "https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/washington/trump-criticizes-iran-deal-as-oil-sanctions-waivers-21956723", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-24/iran-says-opec-action-on-output-cuts-must-address-libya-nigeria", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-iran-oil/iran-pushes-to-retain-asia-oil-buyers-as-possible-u-s-sanctions-loom-idUSKBN1DR0JS", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/73176/irans-south-azadegan-output-at-83000-bpd", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/71018/irans-kharg-daily-oil-exports-at-21m-barrels", "http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Forget-OPEC-China-Controls-Oil-Prices.html", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20September%202017.pdf", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/411541/Iranian-oil-output-to-exceed-3-9m-bpd-in-Feb-Zanganeh", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/turkey-energy-russia-iran-idUKL8N1L13IZ", "https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/tehran/iran-russia-turkey-sign-energy-cooperation-deal-21582179", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/70448/south-pars-oil-output-exceeds-25m-barrels", "https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/analysis-iranian-oil-flows-gain-further-ground-26801813", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil/table-opec-oil-output-falls-by-170000-bpd-in-august-reuters-survey-idUKL8N1LH3OE", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/reuters-america-table-opec-oil-output-falls-by-80000-bpd-in-october--reuters-survey.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-appec-iran/low-stocks-growth-in-domestic-demand-to-cap-iran-oil-exports-nioc-idUSKCN1C00JV"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-11-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/308

True

2016-12-31

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017?

binary

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Yemen as the 10th country at the greatest risk of an onset of a new episode of state-led mass killing (<a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/countries/yemen" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). Those forecasts do not include the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. Violence perpetrated by Saudi Arabia inside Yemen will not count because our definition of mass killing focuses on state and non-state violence perpetrated within a state, not as part of international wars or military interventions (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2015/11/04/what-constitutes-a-mass-killing" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target="_blank">EWP's blog</a>. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/210" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Pakistan before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/156" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?</a> This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Yemen before the end of 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-03-30

gjopen

["http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1969/05/chicagos-blackstone-rangers-i/305741/", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?country=228", "http://english.sina.com/news/2016-07-17/detail-ifxuaiwa7085854.shtml", "https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2016/7/5/houthi-rockets-kill-seven-children-in-yemens-marib", "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions", "http://www.voanews.com/content/yemen-civilian-casualties/3370540.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/yemen-war-houthis-saudi-arabia-partition.html", "http://www.globalresearch.ca/war-on-yemen-inhaling-poisonous-gas-saudi-arabia-launches-chemical-attack-on-sanaa-killing-civilians/5542172", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/13/yemen-saudi-led-funeral-attack-apparent-war-crime", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-iran-idUSKCN12K0CX", "http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-loya-jirga-explainer/25174483.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/yemen-hadramout-forces-aqap-isis.html", "http://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/yemen-crisis-update-july-2016", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/06/08/united-nations-saudi-arabia-coalition-yemen/85588502/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/cross-border-attack-from-yemen-kills-4-saudi-family-members/2016/08/01/25736856-57dc-11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/09/21/485790/yemen-saudi-airstrike-hudaydah", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda_insurgency_in_Yemen#2016", "https://www.rt.com/news/362037-yemen-blast-strike-killed/", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54476#.V48xa_moOuo", "http://english.almanar.com.lb/91760", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35842708", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-woman-hostage-working-red-cross-released-yemen-42548337", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/285421"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-07-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/244

True

2016-10-17

Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?

binary

This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October. As of this date, the US has not announced plans to open a consulate or an embassy in Iran. The US has not had formal diplomatic offices in Iran since 1980, when diplomatic relations were severed after the hostage crisis (<a href = "http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5314.htm" target = "_blank">State Department</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17-will-iran-s-president-hassan-rouhani-meet-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-before-1-september-2016" target = "_blank">Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?<a/> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/138-will-the-united-states-remove-iran-from-the-list-of-countries-identified-as-state-sponsors-of-terrorism-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?</a>

2016-10-18

gjopen

["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/us/politics/iran-embassy-state-department.html", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/08/15/1158741/iran-should-brace-for-huge-sanctions-official-warns", "http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/06/258493.htm", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/13/iran-sends-ships-to-yemeni-coast-in-wake-of-u-s-strikes/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/world/middleeast/with-boeing-deal-americans-are-coming-to-iran.html?_r=0", "https://www.eda.admin.ch/countries/iran/en/home/representations/embassy-of-switzerland-foreign-interests-section.html", "http://www.local10.com/news/politics/us-official-navy-aircraft-threatened-with-shoot-down-by-iran", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/14/world/u-s--embassy-reopens-cuba-havana/", "http://en.alalam.ir/news/1866342", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-military-idUSKCN10Z2OP", "http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/08/24/harassing-situation-iranian-vessels-come-within-300-yards-us-navy-ship", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-exemptions-exclusive-idUSKCN1173LA", "http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Jul-19/362767-iran-hard-liners-gain-power-in-backlash-against-rouhani.ashx", "http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/JCPOA_Exemptions_Revealed_1Sept2016_Final1.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-banking-insight-idUSKCN1091QM", "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432516/iran-nuclear-deal-iaea-reports-violations-disclosure", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/pope-francis-welcomes-irans-president-to-the-vatican-1453808307", "http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/19827/nuclear-deal-does-little-to-change-iran-s-engagement-with-the-world", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-new-poll-disappointment-nuclear-deal-jcpoa.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-rouhani-idUSKCN0T118K20151112", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-threatened-to-shoot-down-u-s-surveillance-planes-1473794715", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Vision_for_.22democratic_transition.22", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/world/middleeast/how-an-iranians-spy-saga-ends-6-years-later-hes-executed.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=second-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0", "http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/218560", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embassy_of_the_United_States,_Tehran"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/179

True

2016-11-08

Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election also win the electoral college?

binary

This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the electoral college, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote (<a href = "http://time.com/4608555/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final/" target = "_blank">Time</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-electoralcollege-idUSKBN1480FQ" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: <a href="http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html" target="_blank">National Archives and Records Administration 1</a>, <a href="http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/faq.html#ecpopulardiffer" target="_blank">2</a>. Four presidents, including George Bush in the 2000 election, have been elected without winning the popular vote (<a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2008/03/presidents-winning-without-popular-vote/" target="_blank">FactCheck.org</a>). Only forecasts made prior to election day will be scored. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124" target="_blank">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/171" target="_blank">Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?</a>

2016-12-21

gjopen

["http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus", "http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/08/latest_odds_on_hillary_clinton.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRMOMjCoR58", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote/", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-10/us-election-was-closer-than-you-think/8012392", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/?ex_cid=538fb", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/6-monkey-cage-us-election-2016", "http://www.euronews.com/2016/11/10/hillary-clinton-loses-presidential-election-but-wins-the-popular-vote", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election", "http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#popular-vote", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/08/politics/dixville-notch-results-2016/index.html", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question6", "https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-about-the-electoral-college-math/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States", "https://g.co/kgs/yJ5b1C", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1321FT?il=0", "http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/03/why-electoral-college-landslides-are-easier-to-win-than-popular-vote-ones/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT_nvWreIhg", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/366782", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question7", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-presidential-elections-2016-poll-tracker-latest-donald-trump/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/226

True

2019-10-01

Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty begin before 1 October 2019?

binary

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011, and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years. There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-trump-policy/despite-tensions-u-s-sees-value-in-new-start-treaty-with-russia-idUSKCN1BY00R" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-us-glimpses-possible-common-ground-with-russia/2018/03/21/a6baec60-2c7c-11e8-911f-ca7f68bff0fc_story.html" target="_blank"> The Washington Post</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-10-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-18

0.0

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["2019-07-07", 0.03], ["2019-07-10", 0.03], ["2019-07-11", 0.025], ["2019-07-14", 0.02], ["2019-07-15", 0.02], ["2019-07-17", 0.02], ["2019-07-20", 0.02], ["2019-07-21", 0.02], ["2019-07-21", 0.02], ["2019-07-22", 0.02], ["2019-07-24", 0.02], ["2019-07-27", 0.02], ["2019-07-28", 0.02], ["2019-07-30", 0.02], ["2019-08-01", 0.02], ["2019-08-03", 0.02], ["2019-08-04", 0.02], ["2019-08-06", 0.02], ["2019-08-10", 0.02], ["2019-08-11", 0.02], ["2019-08-13", 0.02], ["2019-08-15", 0.02], ["2019-08-19", 0.02], ["2019-08-20", 0.02], ["2019-08-21", 0.02], ["2019-08-22", 0.02], ["2019-08-24", 0.02], ["2019-08-25", 0.02], ["2019-08-27", 0.02], ["2019-08-28", 0.02], ["2019-08-31", 0.02], ["2019-09-01", 0.02], ["2019-09-02", 0.01], ["2019-09-03", 0.01], ["2019-09-05", 0.01], ["2019-09-05", 0.01], ["2019-09-07", 0.01], ["2019-09-09", 0.01], ["2019-09-10", 0.01], ["2019-09-10", 0.01], ["2019-09-11", 0.01], ["2019-09-12", 0.01], ["2019-09-13", 0.01], ["2019-09-14", 0.01], ["2019-09-15", 0.01], ["2019-09-16", 0.01], ["2019-09-19", 0.01], ["2019-09-20", 0.01], ["2019-09-21", 0.01], ["2019-09-23", 0.01], ["2019-09-23", 0.01], ["2019-09-24", 0.01], ["2019-09-25", 0.01], ["2019-09-25", 0.01], ["2019-09-26", 0.01], ["2019-09-28", 0.01], ["2019-09-29", 0.01], ["2019-09-30", 0.01], ["2019-10-01", 0.01]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/942

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

[["2018-12-28", 0.06], ["2018-12-28", 0.155], ["2018-12-29", 0.25], ["2018-12-29", 0.31], ["2018-12-29", 0.61], ["2018-12-30", 0.46], ["2018-12-31", 0.465], ["2018-12-31", 0.465], ["2018-12-31", 0.08], ["2019-01-01", 0.08], ["2019-01-01", 0.08], ["2019-01-02", 0.07], ["2019-01-02", 0.07], ["2019-01-02", 0.06], ["2019-01-03", 0.07], ["2019-01-03", 0.06], ["2019-01-04", 0.06], ["2019-01-04", 0.055], ["2019-01-04", 0.055], ["2019-01-04", 0.03], ["2019-01-05", 0.03], ["2019-01-06", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.09], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06", 0.26], ["2019-01-06", 0.335], ["2019-01-06", 0.335], ["2019-01-06", 0.335], ["2019-01-06", 0.375], ["2019-01-06", 0.375], ["2019-01-06", 0.375], ["2019-01-07", 0.375], ["2019-01-07", 0.475], ["2019-01-07", 0.475], ["2019-01-07", 0.475], ["2019-01-07", 0.4], ["2019-01-07", 0.25], ["2019-01-07", 0.25], ["2019-01-09", 0.325], ["2019-01-09", 0.24], ["2019-01-09", 0.265], ["2019-01-10", 0.265], ["2019-01-10", 0.265], ["2019-01-11", 0.25], ["2019-01-12", 0.44], ["2019-01-12", 0.44], ["2019-01-13", 0.45], ["2019-01-13", 0.44], ["2019-01-14", 0.44], ["2019-01-15", 0.445], ["2019-01-16", 0.445], ["2019-01-19", 0.345], ["2019-01-19", 0.445], ["2019-01-20", 0.445], ["2019-01-20", 0.44], ["2019-01-20", 0.45], ["2019-01-22", 0.45], ["2019-01-24", 0.45], ["2019-01-24", 0.45], ["2019-01-26", 0.45], ["2019-01-26", 0.455], ["2019-01-27", 0.455], ["2019-01-27", 0.455], ["2019-01-29", 0.425], ["2019-01-29", 0.375], ["2019-01-29", 0.35], ["2019-01-29", 0.35], ["2019-01-29", 0.3], ["2019-01-29", 0.25], ["2019-01-29", 0.25], ["2019-01-29", 0.245], ["2019-01-29", 0.24], ["2019-01-29", 0.21], ["2019-01-29", 0.21], ["2019-01-30", 0.21], ["2019-01-30", 0.21], ["2019-01-31", 0.21], ["2019-02-01", 0.18], ["2019-02-01", 0.18], ["2019-02-01", 0.185], ["2019-02-01", 0.185], ["2019-02-03", 0.15], ["2019-02-05", 0.15], ["2019-02-05", 0.15], ["2019-02-05", 0.15], ["2019-02-07", 0.125], ["2019-02-08", 0.1], ["2019-02-10", 0.1], ["2019-02-11", 0.1], ["2019-02-11", 0.1], ["2019-02-12", 0.1], ["2019-02-13", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-20", 0.085], ["2019-02-20", 0.085], ["2019-02-21", 0.085], ["2019-02-22", 0.085], ["2019-02-24", 0.065], ["2019-02-24", 0.065], ["2019-02-25", 0.07], ["2019-02-26", 0.07], ["2019-02-28", 0.07], ["2019-02-28", 0.07], ["2019-03-01", 0.07], ["2019-03-01", 0.07], ["2019-03-01", 0.07], ["2019-03-04", 0.07], ["2019-03-05", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.07], ["2019-03-07", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.07], ["2019-03-08", 0.09], ["2019-03-09", 0.1], ["2019-03-09", 0.1], ["2019-03-09", 0.095], ["2019-03-10", 0.095], ["2019-03-11", 0.095], ["2019-03-11", 0.085], ["2019-03-11", 0.085], ["2019-03-12", 0.085], ["2019-03-12", 0.08], ["2019-03-12", 0.08], ["2019-03-13", 0.065], ["2019-03-13", 0.065], ["2019-03-14", 0.065], ["2019-03-17", 0.065], ["2019-03-18", 0.08], ["2019-03-19", 0.08], ["2019-03-21", 0.08], ["2019-03-22", 0.08], ["2019-03-22", 0.08], ["2019-03-25", 0.08], ["2019-03-29", 0.08], ["2019-03-30", 0.08], ["2019-03-30", 0.08], ["2019-03-31", 0.08]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1072

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

[["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-28", 0.05], ["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-29", 0.09], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-30", 0.065], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.04], ["2018-12-31", 0.045], ["2019-01-01", 0.045], ["2019-01-02", 0.04], ["2019-01-02", 0.04], ["2019-01-02", 0.045], ["2019-01-03", 0.04], ["2019-01-03", 0.035], ["2019-01-04", 0.035], ["2019-01-04", 0.035], ["2019-01-04", 0.035], ["2019-01-05", 0.035], ["2019-01-05", 0.04], ["2019-01-06", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.04], ["2019-01-06", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.045], ["2019-01-06", 0.055], ["2019-01-06", 0.065], ["2019-01-06", 0.115], ["2019-01-06", 0.13], ["2019-01-06", 0.33], ["2019-01-06", 0.55], ["2019-01-06", 0.55], ["2019-01-06", 0.645], ["2019-01-06", 0.67], ["2019-01-06", 0.575], ["2019-01-06", 0.575], ["2019-01-06", 0.5], ["2019-01-07", 0.65], ["2019-01-07", 0.575], ["2019-01-07", 0.575], ["2019-01-07", 0.575], ["2019-01-07", 0.67], ["2019-01-07", 0.67], ["2019-01-07", 0.65], ["2019-01-07", 0.65], ["2019-01-07", 0.65], ["2019-01-08", 0.65], ["2019-01-08", 0.67], ["2019-01-08", 0.67], ["2019-01-08", 0.67], ["2019-01-09", 0.67], ["2019-01-09", 0.57], ["2019-01-09", 0.37], ["2019-01-09", 0.49], ["2019-01-09", 0.49], ["2019-01-10", 0.49], ["2019-01-10", 0.49], ["2019-01-10", 0.52], ["2019-01-11", 0.4], ["2019-01-11", 0.575], ["2019-01-11", 0.55], ["2019-01-11", 0.55], ["2019-01-11", 0.55], ["2019-01-11", 0.25], ["2019-01-11", 0.25], ["2019-01-11", 0.25], ["2019-01-12", 0.225], ["2019-01-12", 0.175], ["2019-01-12", 0.175], ["2019-01-12", 0.18], ["2019-01-13", 0.16], ["2019-01-13", 0.15], ["2019-01-13", 0.15], ["2019-01-13", 0.1], ["2019-01-15", 0.095], ["2019-01-16", 0.095], ["2019-01-19", 0.095], ["2019-01-19", 0.095], ["2019-01-20", 0.09], ["2019-01-20", 0.09], ["2019-01-20", 0.09], ["2019-01-20", 0.09], ["2019-01-21", 0.09], ["2019-01-22", 0.09], ["2019-01-24", 0.08], ["2019-01-26", 0.08], ["2019-01-26", 0.09], ["2019-01-27", 0.09], ["2019-01-27", 0.09], ["2019-01-28", 0.09], ["2019-01-28", 0.09], ["2019-01-28", 0.1], ["2019-01-28", 0.08], ["2019-01-29", 0.09], ["2019-01-29", 0.08], ["2019-01-29", 0.085], ["2019-01-29", 0.09], ["2019-01-29", 0.1], ["2019-01-29", 0.1], ["2019-01-29", 0.1], ["2019-01-31", 0.1], ["2019-02-01", 0.095], ["2019-02-01", 0.095], ["2019-02-01", 0.095], ["2019-02-03", 0.1], ["2019-02-03", 0.1], ["2019-02-04", 0.1], ["2019-02-04", 0.1], ["2019-02-05", 0.1], ["2019-02-06", 0.1], ["2019-02-08", 0.1], ["2019-02-10", 0.1], ["2019-02-10", 0.1], ["2019-02-11", 0.1], ["2019-02-11", 0.1], ["2019-02-12", 0.1], ["2019-02-13", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-16", 0.1], ["2019-02-18", 0.1], ["2019-02-19", 0.1], ["2019-02-20", 0.1], ["2019-02-21", 0.1], ["2019-02-23", 0.1], ["2019-02-24", 0.1], ["2019-02-24", 0.1], ["2019-02-26", 0.1], ["2019-02-26", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-02-28", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-01", 0.1], ["2019-03-02", 0.095], ["2019-03-02", 0.09], ["2019-03-04", 0.09], ["2019-03-05", 0.08], ["2019-03-05", 0.075], ["2019-03-05", 0.07], ["2019-03-05", 0.055], ["2019-03-06", 0.05], ["2019-03-06", 0.05], ["2019-03-06", 0.05], ["2019-03-06", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.06], ["2019-03-07", 0.055], ["2019-03-07", 0.055], ["2019-03-07", 0.05], ["2019-03-07", 0.055], ["2019-03-07", 0.06], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-09", 0.055], ["2019-03-09", 0.05], ["2019-03-10", 0.05], ["2019-03-10", 0.05], ["2019-03-10", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-11", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-12", 0.05], ["2019-03-13", 0.05], ["2019-03-13", 0.05], ["2019-03-14", 0.05], ["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-22", 0.05], ["2019-03-24", 0.05], ["2019-03-25", 0.05], ["2019-03-26", 0.05], ["2019-03-27", 0.05], ["2019-03-27", 0.05], ["2019-03-28", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-29", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-30", 0.05], ["2019-03-31", 0.05]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1070

True

2017-12-22

Before 31 December 2017, will President Trump sign legislation removing the ACA's individual mandate to purchase health insurance?

binary

The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. In May 2017, the House passed a bill to “repeal and replace” the ACA with a provision that would end the individual mandate. The issue has moved to the Senate (<a href = "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/05/05/ahca-cuts-1-trillion-in-obamacare-taxes.html"target="_blank">Fox News</a>, <a href = "https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/3/15531494/american-health-care-act-explained"target="_blank">Vox</a>). The passage of legislation which limits enforcement (e.g by removing the penalty or prohibiting the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate) would resolve the question as "yes" (<a href = "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A"target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 22 December 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2017-12-27

gjopen

["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/trump-is-said-to-plan-tax-signing-jan-3-due-to-technical-issue", "https://www.vanityfair.com/news/photos/2016/02/donald-trumps-short-fingers-a-historical-analysis#16", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-leaders-push-spending-patch-to-avoid-shutdown-1512341550", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/dreamers-fate-hangs-over-efforts-to-avert-government-shutdown-1512642601", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/us/politics/tax-bill-obamacare-mandate-collins.html", "https://philosophersguild.com/products/trumps-small-hand-soap", "https://nypost.com/2017/12/21/trump-likely-to-sign-tax-bill-on-friday-white-house/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/house-unveils-bill-to-fund-the-government-through-jan-point-19.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-healthcare/u-s-senate-tax-bill-accomplishes-major-obamacare-repeal-goal-idUSKBN1DW07T?il=0", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/business/house-senate-tax-bill-differences.html?_r=0", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweeping-tax-bill-heads-to-trump-for-his-signature-1513792578", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/02/us/politics/republicans-tax-cuts.html", "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/tax-bill-2017", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanellis/2017/11/15/individual-mandate-repeal-is-a-middle-class-tax-cut/#34496bd24b80", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/business/tax-bill-differences-reconciliation/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/trump-signs-tax-government-spending-bills-into-law-idUSKBN1EG1T1", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/senators-who-saved-obamacare-support-bill-that-would-hurt-obamacare.html", "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/O1ElL3BdwBw/maxresdefault.jpg", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/17/us/politics/john-mccain-cancer-tax-bill.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics", "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/454491/gop-tax-plan-hasty-changes-uncertain-future", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/kevin-mccarthy-explains-how-republican-tax-reform-bill-could-work.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/366148-trump-signs-tax-bill-into-law", "http://fortune.com/2017/12/20/tax-bill-individual-mandate-obamacare/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/house-approves-temporary-funding-to-avert-government-shutdown", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/tax-reform-state-of-play/index.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-07-14

1.0

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["2017-12-22", 0.18], ["2017-12-22", 0.18], ["2017-12-22", 0.2], ["2017-12-22", 0.225], ["2017-12-22", 0.275], ["2017-12-22", 0.275]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/530

True

2016-07-31

Before 1 August 2016, will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?

binary

This question was closed with the answer "No" on 3 August 2016 with an end date of 31 July 2016. Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 30 July 2016. In late July, the IMF's executive board announced that they would not be releasing the next tranche of the loan until at least mid-August (<a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-imf-bailout-delay-continues/27887802.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty</a>, <a href="http://uatoday.tv/news/rfe-rl-imf-announces-further-delay-in-ukraine-bailout-706396.html" target="_blank">Ukraine Today</a>). In March 2015, the IMF approved a four-year, $17.5-billion loan program for Ukraine (<a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15107.htm" target="_blank">IMF</a>). Two tranches of funds have been released, but the third has been delayed by concerns over stalled progress on expected reforms (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSL8N15N42C" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). In May 2016, Ukraine secured preliminary approval for the release of the next tranche of that loan, but final approval, which the IMF plans to consider at its July board meeting, is contingent on further Ukrainian reforms (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-gives-preliminary-green-light-for-ukraine-bailout-payout-1463606021" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-finmin-idUSKCN0XP2BV" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2016/pr16227.htm" target="_blank">IMF</a>). Extending the review process or delaying the approval decision (e.g. by requiring Ukraine to show more progress in meeting IMF conditions, as they did in May 2016) will not resolve the question as "yes." Clarification issued 5 July 2016: The question will resolve as "yes" when the IMF approves the release of the next tranche of loans to Ukraine, regardless of the dollar amount. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/98" target="_blank">Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/209" target="_blank">What will happen to the European Union's sectoral sanctions against Russia, currently set to expire in July 2016?</a>

2016-08-03

gjopen

["http://www.odessatalk.com/2016/07/ukraine-and-the-imf-where-are-we-at/", "https://www.imf.org/external/NP/SEC/bc/eng/index.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/289187", "http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/07/15/15/18/TR071516%20Transcript%20of%20the%20Press%20Briefing%20with%20Gerry%20Rice", "http://uatoday.tv/business/ukraine-may-receive-next-tranche-in-july-august-imf-official-667539.html", "http://www.imf.org/external/NP/SEC/bc/eng/index.aspx?sort=country&amp;year=", "http://www.unian.info/economics/1413933-finance-ministry-says-when-imfs-board-of-directors-to-convene-on-ukraine.html&quot", "http://112.international/politics/ukraine-has-not-fulfilled-all-its-obligations-to-imf-lagarde-7181.html", "http://uatoday.tv/politics/imf-loan-tranche-for-ukraine-delayed-700616.html", "http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/359054.html", "http://zik.ua/en/news/2016/07/08/no_summer_recess_rada_to_work_through_summer_714578", "http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-very-disappointing-if-imf-delays-loan-to-ukraine-419218.html", "http://af.reuters.com/article/guineaBissauNews/idAFL1N1A00T9", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160728/1043723394/imf-ukraine-tranche.html", "http://www.blic.rs/vesti/ekonomija/vucic-sa-novim-sefom-kancelarije-mmf-srbija-nikad-nece-biti-na-ivici-bankrota/s8sl9r5", "http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/omr/roadtowarsaw/2016/07/09/nato-approves-assistance-package-ukraine-condemns-russian-aggression/86897150/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Warsaw%201&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Digital%20Show%20Daily", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/international-monetary-fund-imf-could-resume-aid-to-ukraine-in-july-spokesman-2914379/", "http://www.unian.info/economics/1427927-imf-loan-tranche-for-ukraine-delayed.html", "http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/358168.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/imf-may-not-approve-ukraine-s-tranche-in-july-minister-says", "http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/unian-imf-to-meet-on-ukraine-late-in-august-finance-ministry-419667.html", "http://www.imf.org/external/NP/SEC/bc/eng/index.aspx", "http://www.imf.org/external/NP/SEC/bc/eng/index.aspx?sort=date&amp;year=", "http://iportal.rada.gov.ua/en/news/News/133471.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/imf-ukraine-idUSL1N1A00VO"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/224

True

2018-01-01

Will Poland reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018?

binary

Ahead of the 2016 Warsaw Summit, Poland suspended the small-border-traffic law which allowed visa-free travel into Poland from Ukraine and the Russian city of Kaliningrad (<a href="http://thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/259971" target = "_blank">Polskie Radio S.A</a>). Poland has since reintroduced the visa-free zone with Ukraine, but not yet with Kaliningrad, stating security concerns as reason for the sustained suspension (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-04/poland-keeps-russia-border-shut-to-traffic-amid-business-chagrin" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>). For more information on the small-border-traffic law see: <a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/10/poland-and-kaliningrad" target = "_blank">The Economist</a>. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the New START treaty</a>.} <hr> Poland did not reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3875394/US-troops-deployed-Poland-stand-guard-Russia-s-borders-biggest-military-build-Cold-War-Putin-s-attack-DNC-mass-nuclear-drill.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-exhumes-president-killed-in-russia-plane-crash-1479145204", "http://m.dw.com/en/no-russian-troops-in-ukraine-putin-says/a-18387284", "http://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/post-truth-named-2016-word-of-the-year/3603012.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21679470-new-government-poland-has-made-awful-start-europes-new-headache", "http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/visit-russia-before-russia-visits-you.png", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_parliamentary_election,_2015", "http://togroklife.com/category/poland/", "http://lfpr.lt/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LFPR-28-Zielinski.pdf", "http://geoinfo.amu.edu.pl/qg/archives/2010/QG294-075-82_Palmowski.pdf", "http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/lithuania-to-build-kaliningrad-border-fence-with-eu-money/", "https://www.academia.edu/12000374/The_Riddle_of_Kaliningrad", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/lithuania-build-fence-border-russian-exclave-134121687.html", "http://warsawpoint.com/politics/2464-visa-free-polish-russian-border-traffic-remain-suspended.html", "http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/267778,Kaliningrad-border-restrictions-%E2%80%98will-benefit-budget%E2%80%99-official", "http://www.dw.com/en/kaliningrad-visa-free-border-traffic-suspended/av-36079843", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/12/doubts-over-biggest-us-deployment-in-europe-since-cold-war-under-trump", "http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.858.3280&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf", "https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/01/16/pola-j16.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-12-20

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/369

True

2016-08-31

Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016?

binary

This question was closed as "B)No" on 31 August 2016. There is no indication that Rouhani and King Salman have met and tensions between the two countries remain high. Although Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to compete for influence in the Middle East, they have common interests in stabilizing oil prices, controlling domestic unrest, and fighting the Islamic State (<a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-saudi-arabia-relations-diplomatic-ties-could-resume-despite-yemen-conflict-2036236" target = "_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1818430-43fc-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3jPi1qA6j" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a> ). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/19-will-iran-host-a-president-or-prime-minister-from-one-of-the-g7-countries-on-an-official-visit-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/137-will-the-us-or-the-un-impose-any-new-sanctions-on-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/145-will-china-conduct-bilateral-military-exercises-with-either-iran-or-saudi-arabia-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?</a>

2016-09-01

gjopen

["https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2016/07/13/what-the-iran-deal-has-meant-for-saudi-arabia-and-regional-tensions/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-mecca-hajj.html?_r=0", "http://www.politico.eu/article/dont-write-off-saudi-arabia-diplomatic-charm-offensive-brussels-russia-iran/", "http://www.thenewsteller.com/pakistan/pm-nawaz-coas-raheel-leaves-for-tehran-after-saudi-arabia/31595/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/16/saudi-arabia-strikes-back-3/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/opinion/is-the-iran-saudi-cold-war-heating-up.html?_r=0", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/webtv/reports/2016/07/21/Saudi-FM-Adel-Al-Jubeir-responds-to-Iran-criticism-in-Brussels-.html", "http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/02/saudia-arabia-iran-cold-war-492880.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17-will-iran-s-president-hassan-rouhani-meet-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-before-1-september-2016/www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-mecca-hajj.html?_r=0", "http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2016/may/23/iran-and-islamic-conference-tensions-summit", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "http://nation.com.pk/national/09-Jan-2016/imran-wants-govt-to-mediate-in-saudi-iran-conflict", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-saudi-threat-perceptions-turki-mek-conference.html", "http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/iran/rouhani-heads-to-turkey-for-key-islamic-summit-1.1710984", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/04/islamic-world-leaders-seek-bridge-differences-160414082230514.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/arabic-press-roundup-handshakes-and-snubs-islamic-summit-376265460#sthash.hMLdUhN7.dpuf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/207916", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35251917", "http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/saudia-arabia-iran-and-the-new-middle-eastern-cold-war-a-1090725.html", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/10/474442/Saudi-Arabia-MKO-Iran-Massoud-Rajavi", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/03/gitrep-2may16pm/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17

True

2017-11-14

Before 1 January 2018, will two of the three major credit rating agencies adjust the long-term issuer credit rating of Venezuela or the PDVSA to indicate default?

binary

The three major credit rating agencies are Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. A rating of C by Moody's indicates default (see page 5 of <a href = "https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=pbc_79004"target="_blank">Moody's</a>); a rating of RD or D by Fitch indicates default (see page 19 of <a href = "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/dam/jcr:6b03c4cd-611d-47ec-b8f1-183c01b51b08/Rating%20Definitions.pdf"target="_blank">Fitch Ratings</a>), and a rating of SD or D by S&P indicates default (See table 4: <a href = "https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/article/-/view/sourceId/504352"target="_blank">Standard and Poors</a>). Venezuela and its state-run oil company, the PDVSA ,made a large debt payment in April, but have others coming due in October and November of 2017 (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-bonds-idUSL1N1HK0YF"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Venezuela’s shrinking federal reserves, budget deficit, high unemployment rate, falling oil prices, and food shortages put it at risk of defaulting on these loans in 2017 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/venezuelan-credit-dashboard-can-default-be-avoided-in-2017"target="_blank">Bloomber</a>, <a href = "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2017/02/28/venezuela-pdvsa-default-risk-real-outlook-negative-sp-says/"target="_blank">Barrons</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> PDVSA has been downgraded by <a href = "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1032258"target="_blank">Fitch</a> and <a href = "https://www.standardandpoors.com//en_US/web/guest/ratings/press-releases"target="_blank">S&P</a>. This question closed as “a) Yes,” with and end date of 14 November. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-11-21

gjopen

["https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-bonds-isda/isda-to-reconvene-to-discuss-venezuelas-pdvsa-bond-on-tuesday-idUSL1N1NJ18W", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aJ69YgvpDo", "https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/rating", "http://www.theborneopost.com/2017/11/16/venezuela-selective-default-declared-govt-insists-it-is-paying-up/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/11/15/venezuela-did-not-default-but-risks-remain/#4f97800c4919", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-bonds/venezuela-offers-chocolates-but-little-else-to-creditors-idUSKBN1DD0IG?il=0", "https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2017-11-11/venezuela-debt-meeting-set-for-monday-afternoon", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-12/how-forecast-markets-departing-top-jpmorgan-strategist-reveals-what-he-learned-after", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41982069", "https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/930184137478164482", "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1032258", "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/search?content=research&amp;request=venezuela", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/11/15/venezuela-did-not-default-but-risks-remain/#595fce944919", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/599615", "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-creditors-committee-again-postpones-194210953.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNZ63iwnn5M", "https://twitter.com/benbartenstein/status/930241058356826112", "https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/11/14/russian-ministry-defence-publishes-screenshots-computer-games-evidence-us-collusion-isis/", "https://dc.isda.org/documents/2017/11/pdvsa-pt2-dc-decision-nov-7.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-debt-isda/venezuela-ruled-in-default-by-trade-group-after-bond-payment-delays-idUSKBN1DG37J?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-bonds/venezuelas-maduro-dismisses-default-possibility-on-eve-of-debt-talks-idUSKBN1DC117?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-bonds/venezuela-to-meet-creditors-in-bid-to-dodge-default-idUSKBN1DD0IG", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-07/pdvsa-credit-rating-cut-to-c-by-fitch-as-default-imminent", "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/search?request=venezuela&amp;content=entity", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/s-p-rules-venezuela-in-default-on-interest-payment-1510632714?mg=prod/accounts-wsj"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-09

1.0

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["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-03", 0.55], ["2017-11-04", 0.55], ["2017-11-04", 0.6], ["2017-11-04", 0.6], ["2017-11-04", 0.55], ["2017-11-04", 0.6], ["2017-11-04", 0.65], ["2017-11-05", 0.65], ["2017-11-05", 0.65], ["2017-11-05", 0.65], ["2017-11-06", 0.65], ["2017-11-06", 0.65], ["2017-11-06", 0.65], ["2017-11-06", 0.65], ["2017-11-06", 0.65], ["2017-11-06", 0.65], ["2017-11-07", 0.65], ["2017-11-07", 0.65], ["2017-11-07", 0.6], ["2017-11-07", 0.55], ["2017-11-07", 0.6], ["2017-11-08", 0.6], ["2017-11-08", 0.6], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.55], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-12", 0.65], ["2017-11-12", 0.65], ["2017-11-13", 0.65], ["2017-11-13", 0.6], ["2017-11-13", 0.6], ["2017-11-14", 0.55], ["2017-11-14", 0.6], ["2017-11-14", 0.65], ["2017-11-14", 0.65], ["2017-11-14", 0.65], ["2017-11-14", 0.655], ["2017-11-14", 0.7], ["2017-11-14", 0.75], ["2017-11-14", 0.75]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/482

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.france24.com/en/20171012-presidential-election-dr-congo-delayed-least-until-2019", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/world/africa/democratic-republic-of-congo-bana-mura.html", "http://ewn.co.za/2017/10/16/26-bodies-of-ambushed-travellers-found-in-eastern-congo-chief", "https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2017/12/mil-171208-unnews02.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e2175%2elo0ao02gx5%2e2031"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/629

True

2019-01-01

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019?

binary

A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has been using People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some have been posing as fishermen (<a href = "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2122601/combat-ready-plas-new-y-9-transport-planes-put-through"target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-navy/china-navy-confirms-carrier-conducted-drills-in-south-china-sea-idUSKBN14N01D"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/16/little-blue-men-the-maritime-militias-pushing-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/"target="_blank">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>, <a href = "https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a US-China confrontation during the timeframe of the question. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-01-02

gjopen

["http://www.inquirer.net/specials/exclusive-china-militarization-south-china-sea", "https://www.militarynews.com/news/national/us-navy-says-it-won-t-be-deterred-by-chinese/image_c1200e4d-943d-527f-ac5e-b9e4d31940f7.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/06/photos-beijings-militarisation-south-china-sea-philippines", "http://www.businessinsider.com/japans-first-f-35-gets-deployed-amid-china-threat-2018-2", "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/us-stakes-its-claim-arctic-frontier", "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-political-arctic/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43142538", "http://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-f-16-fighter-jets-rockets-tanks-and-attack-helicopters-stages-live-fire-795871", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/philippine-navy-deploys-japan-donated-tc-90-aircraft-to-scarborough-shoal-in-south-china-sea/", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/910938/china-japan-south-china-sea-russia-vladimir-putin-us-senkaku-islands-diaoyu-islands", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE0mKpShJSU", "https://qz.com/1164824/2018-global-politics-forecast/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/16/admiral-warns-us-must-prepare-for-possibility-of-war-with-china", "https://www.sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-all-country-s-claims-on-the-arctic-seafloor", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/696721", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/navy-officer-us-bullied-china-china-sea-53161089", "https://www.economist.com/news/international/21636756-denmark-claims-north-pole-frozen-conflict", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Stuff", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-challenging-dominance-u-s-south-china-sea-diplomat-says-n849296", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china/as-u-s-goes-quiet-on-close-naval-patrols-china-speaks-out-idUSKBN1FC0JK", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/02/why-is-china-buying-up-europes-ports/", "https://www.cfr.org/interactives/global-conflict-tracker?marker=4#!/conflict/tensions-in-the-east-china-sea", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/us-b-1b-bombers-fly-over-south-china-sea-drawing-chinese-protest/", "http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/photos-reveal-chinas-south-china-sea-island-fortresses-are-complete/news-story/776e1a695fb41ccb7e47a436594c1530"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/818

True

2016-10-16

Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?

binary

This question was closed on option b ('No') on 16 October, 2016. The absence of reporting on the Lower House/Wolesi Jirga elections scheduled for 15 October after an <a href="http://www.iec.org.af/media-section/press-releases/546-donduct-2016" target="_blank">Independent Election Commission press release</a> foreboding a possible delay indicates that no elections were in fact held on 15 October. Elections for Afghanistan's lower house of parliament have been scheduled for 15 October 2016 (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/afghanistan-sets-election-date-or-maybe-not/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-iec-announces-an-election-date/" target="_blank">Afghanistan Analysts Network</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/19/world/asia/afghan-panel-sets-election-date-drawing-government-criticism.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153" target="_blank">Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/149" target="_blank">Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/131" target="_blank">How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections?</a>

2016-10-18

gjopen

["http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/26005-meshrano-jirga-approves-presidents-decree-on-electoral-reforms", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/the-coming-political-crisis-in-afghanistan/", "http://hamodia.com/2016/09/01/focus-taliban-makes-gains-afghan-politicians-bicker-kabul/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-afghanistan-idUSKCN0ZP0AC", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ijtihad", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/08/opinions/david-miliband-afghanistan-opinion/", "https://books.google.com.br/books?id=26qBFrQhF0AC&amp;pg=PA16&amp;lpg=PA16&amp;dq=Ijtihad+al+afghani&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=L3ywmTbeKV&amp;sig=DqUvvyqgt3sFbvXfjaH1AaELvVk&amp;hl=pt-BR&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwiP_YDb-KXPAhUFHZAKHRuiD5YQ6AEINjAC#v=onepage&amp;q=Ijtihad%20al%20afghani&amp;f=false", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/09/29/afghan-unity-deal-expires-but-gridlocked-government-remains.html", "http://www.dw.com/en/discord-between-afghan-unity-government-leaders-intensifies/a-19485299", "http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/27339-ghani-ceo-reach-electoral-reforms-agreement", "http://outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=16114", "https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/afghanistan/kabul", "http://outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=16144", "http://www.thenational.ae/world/central-asia/afghan-parliament-elections-create-new-political-rifts", "http://www.outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=15984", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/07/18/us-commander-progress-fighting-taliban-afghanistan/87257034/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/gulbuddin-hekmatyar-group-signs-afghan-peace-deal-160922093420326.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-afghan-id-cards-the-size-of-a-large-pizza-create-ethnic-spat/2016/08/17/72e8b3ca-63da-11e6-9161-aa7c674b6ede_story.html", "http://www.eurasiareview.com/04092016-game-for-the-throne-more-instability-expected-in-afghanistan-analysis/", "http://www.outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=15830", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/world/asia/afghanistan-corruption-financial-disclosure.html?_r=0", "http://www.voanews.com/a/two-years-after-controversial-afghan-elections-promised-reforms-remain-stalled/3462811.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/middleeast/taliban-afghanistan-kunduz/", "http://www.kabultribune.com/index.php/2016/09/18/wj-summons-icoic-members-on-electoral-reform-decree/", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/US-senate-panel-humiliates-Pakistan-again-virtually-calls-it-a-terrorist-state/articleshow/54206542.cms"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-03

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/194

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/975

True