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YuehHanChen

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2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P cut the State of Illinois’ credit rating to junk status?

binary

The question will close yes if Moody’s cuts its credit rating to Ba1, Fitch cuts its rating to BB+, or S&P cuts its rating to BB+ on any Illinois state general obligation bonds. Despite passing a budget, the state of Illinois remains at risk of having its credit downgraded to junk status (<a href = "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/illinois-on-brink-of-becoming-first-state-rated-junk-if-budget-crisis-not-averted-2017-06-30"target="_blank">Market Watch</a>, <a href = http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-illinois-legislature-budget-met-0704-20170703-story.html"target="_blank">Chicago Tribune</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Fitch, Moody's, or S&P did not cut the State of Illinois credit rating to junk status. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-08

gjopen

["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica_coalition_(politics", "http://www.rrstar.com/news/20170918/rauner-to-illinois-lawmakers-help-me-make-more-cuts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition#Germany", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-bruce-rauner-amazon-st-louis-met-0919-20170918-story.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-cash-strapped-chicago-snagged-a-triple-a-rating-for-its-new-bonds-1512320401", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-confirms-Illinois-Baa3-GO-and-related-ratings-affecting-32--PR_904132827", "https://www.reuters.com/article/illinois-bonds/illinois-keeps-bbb-minus-sp-rating-for-6-bln-bond-sale-idUSL2N1MK0U7", "https://ballotpedia.org/State_credit_ratings", "http://www.pionline.com/article/20171207/ONLINE/171209871/moodys-proposes-upping-pension-debt-weighting-in-credit-rating-decisions", "https://patch.com/illinois/springfield-il/rauner-borrows-6-billion-pay-overdue-bills", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/chicago-tests-bond-market-alchemy-with-debut-of-aaa-rated-debt", "http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2017/09/pas_credit_downgrade_was_bad_n.html", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-removes-the-rating-from-the-State-of-Illinois-General--PR_904310133", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/06/investing/illinois-budget-deal-house-override/index.html", "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1026604", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-illinois-budget-idUSKBN19Q2P1", "http://www.reuters.com/article/illinois-bonds/update-2-illinois-to-sell-6-75-bln-of-bonds-by-year-end-idUSL2N1M31YM", "http://www.kwqc.com/content/news/State-of-Illinois-sells-15-billion-in-bonds-451330133.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-illinois-ratings-fitch/illinois-credit-rating-stays-investment-grade-with-fitch-idUSKBN1A22C0", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/05/investing/illinois-downgrade-junk-moodys-budget-deal/index.html", "http://www.tribuneledgernews.com/extra/news/in-spite-of-tax-hike-ratings-agency-eyes-change-that/article_bf6fce83-a9d8-5e94-9079-00924711f2b9.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xZx1lf2tvs", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-bruce-rauner-illinois-credit-rating-met-0713-20170712-story.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/01/reuters-america-sp-cuts-illinois-credit-rating-to-one-notch-above-junk.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-illinois-ratings/illinois-avoids-downgrade-to-junk-as-sp-affirms-bbb-minus-rating-idUSKBN19X2PW"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-07-11

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/525

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://orientalreview.org/2017/12/29/2018-outlook-africa/", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article180277526.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-violence/at-least-five-killed-as-police-fire-at-protest-in-ethiopia-idUSKBN1CV1P1", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/they-started-to-burn-our-houses-ethnic-strife-in-ethiopia-threatens-a-key-us-ally/2017/10/20/1bf2634c-af68-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.125], ["2017-09-29", 0.125], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.025], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.03], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.01], ["2017-10-03", 0.005], ["2017-10-03", 0.005], ["2017-10-03", 0.0], ["2017-10-03", 0.0], ["2017-10-04", 0.0], ["2017-10-05", 0.0], ["2017-10-05", 0.0], ["2017-10-06", 0.0], ["2017-10-06", 0.0], ["2017-10-06", 0.0], ["2017-10-07", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-10", 0.0], ["2017-10-10", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-15", 0.0], ["2017-10-15", 0.0], ["2017-10-16", 0.0], ["2017-10-16", 0.0], ["2017-10-16", 0.0], ["2017-10-17", 0.0], ["2017-10-18", 0.0], ["2017-10-18", 0.0], ["2017-10-19", 0.0], ["2017-10-19", 0.0], ["2017-10-20", 0.0], ["2017-10-20", 0.0], ["2017-10-21", 0.0], ["2017-10-21", 0.0], ["2017-10-21", 0.0], ["2017-10-23", 0.0], ["2017-10-23", 0.0], ["2017-10-23", 0.0], ["2017-10-23", 0.0], ["2017-10-24", 0.0], ["2017-10-24", 0.0], ["2017-10-25", 0.0], ["2017-10-25", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-27", 0.0], ["2017-10-27", 0.0], ["2017-10-29", 0.0], ["2017-10-29", 0.0], ["2017-10-29", 0.0], ["2017-10-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-31", 0.0], ["2017-10-31", 0.0], ["2017-11-01", 0.0], ["2017-11-01", 0.0], ["2017-11-02", 0.0], ["2017-11-02", 0.0], ["2017-11-03", 0.0], ["2017-11-03", 0.0], ["2017-11-04", 0.0], ["2017-11-04", 0.0], ["2017-11-05", 0.0], ["2017-11-06", 0.0], ["2017-11-07", 0.0], ["2017-11-08", 0.0], ["2017-11-09", 0.005], ["2017-11-09", 0.005], ["2017-11-10", 0.005], ["2017-11-10", 0.005], ["2017-11-11", 0.005], ["2017-11-12", 0.005], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.0], ["2017-11-15", 0.0], ["2017-11-16", 0.0], ["2017-11-17", 0.0], ["2017-11-17", 0.0], ["2017-11-19", 0.0], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-22", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.005], ["2017-11-27", 0.005], ["2017-11-28", 0.005], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/628

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

[["2018-04-02", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.075], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.265], ["2018-04-04", 0.215], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.02], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-08", 0.005], ["2018-04-09", 0.005], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-13", 0.015], ["2018-04-14", 0.02], ["2018-04-15", 0.01], ["2018-04-15", 0.015], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.02], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-20", 0.015], ["2018-04-24", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-29", 0.01], ["2018-05-01", 0.02], ["2018-05-01", 0.02], ["2018-05-02", 0.02], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-09", 0.015], ["2018-05-10", 0.015], ["2018-05-11", 0.02], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-03", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.005], ["2018-06-15", 0.005], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-19", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.01], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.04], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-30", 0.04], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.02]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/911

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

[["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.6], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.225], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.225], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.08], ["2018-04-07", 0.06], ["2018-04-08", 0.07], ["2018-04-09", 0.055], ["2018-04-10", 0.055], ["2018-04-11", 0.055], ["2018-04-12", 0.07], ["2018-04-13", 0.055], ["2018-04-15", 0.06], ["2018-04-15", 0.17], ["2018-04-15", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.235], ["2018-04-19", 0.235], ["2018-04-20", 0.235], ["2018-04-21", 0.25], ["2018-04-23", 0.25], ["2018-04-25", 0.25], ["2018-04-26", 0.25], ["2018-04-29", 0.25], ["2018-04-29", 0.25], ["2018-05-01", 0.25], ["2018-05-02", 0.25], ["2018-05-03", 0.3], ["2018-05-03", 0.3], ["2018-05-06", 0.3], ["2018-05-09", 0.325], ["2018-05-10", 0.325], ["2018-05-10", 0.325], ["2018-05-11", 0.325], ["2018-05-12", 0.325], ["2018-05-14", 0.325], ["2018-05-14", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-17", 0.3], ["2018-05-18", 0.3], ["2018-05-21", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.27], ["2018-05-24", 0.17], ["2018-05-24", 0.155], ["2018-05-26", 0.155], ["2018-05-26", 0.11], ["2018-05-28", 0.11], ["2018-05-30", 0.11], ["2018-05-31", 0.09], ["2018-06-01", 0.09], ["2018-06-02", 0.1], ["2018-06-04", 0.1], ["2018-06-05", 0.09], ["2018-06-08", 0.09], ["2018-06-11", 0.09], ["2018-06-11", 0.09], ["2018-06-12", 0.09], ["2018-06-13", 0.09], ["2018-06-14", 0.09], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-15", 0.1], ["2018-06-16", 0.1], ["2018-06-16", 0.11], ["2018-06-17", 0.095], ["2018-06-18", 0.095], ["2018-06-18", 0.07], ["2018-06-20", 0.065], ["2018-06-22", 0.065], ["2018-06-23", 0.09], ["2018-06-23", 0.08], ["2018-06-23", 0.07], ["2018-06-24", 0.07], ["2018-06-24", 0.07], ["2018-06-26", 0.07], ["2018-06-27", 0.085], ["2018-06-27", 0.125], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.135], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.14], ["2018-07-01", 0.14]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/918

True

2017-04-29

Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?

binary

The UNFCCC entered into force for the United States in 1994 (<a href = "http://unfccc.int/tools_xml/country_US.html" target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>, <a href = "http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php" target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>). President-elect Donald Trump has cast uncertainty over the future of U.S. policy on climate change (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/02/trump-break-from-paris-climate-deal-unfccc-exit"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.ocregister.com/articles/trump-738643-donald-action.html"target = "_blank">The Orange County Register</a>). Under Article 25 of the UNFCCC agreement, a party can withdraw from the Convention one year after giving notification (<a href = "http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf"target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>, <a href = "https://treaties.un.org/Pages/CNs.aspx?cnTab=tab1&clang=_en"target = "_blank">UN Treaty Collection</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> the U.S. will provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/363"target = "_blank">the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018?</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-05-01

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-coal-idUSKBN1762YY", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-growth-europe-idUSKBN17A0GA", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/politics/donald-trump-climate-change-executive-order/", "http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3007567/vatican-urges-trump-to-rethink-climate-policy-attack", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/climate/trump-climate-change.html?_r=0", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-26/state-department-memo-boosts-case-to-stay-in-paris-climate-pact", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/big-coal-companies-press-trump-not-to-leave-climate-deal/article/2619393", "http://www.brecorder.com/2017/03/31/340925/trump-to-decide-on-staying-in-paris-climate-accord-by-may/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/328132-should-us-falter-china-poised-to-capitalize-on-clean", "http://nwpr.org/post/northwest-governors-vow-resist-trump-plans-gut-climate-change-rules", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/21/climate/how-americans-think-about-climate-change-in-six-maps.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=photo-spot-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/326561-trump-to-decide-whether-to-stay-paris-climate-pact-by-late-may", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-climate-power-idUSKBN1770D8", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-paris-idUSKBN1740NP?il=0", "https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/25780-three-big-coal-companies-ask-trump-to-honor-unratified-paris-climate-agreement", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/us/politics/trump-advisers-paris-climate-accord.html?_r=0", "http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2017/04/14/epa-chief-calls-for-exit-from-paris-climate-agreement/FZ8biW03zq0FLtGnGeqKHO/story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-climatechange-idUSKBN17J1DN", "https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16032017/us-climate-change-donald-trump-budget-un-unfccc", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/19/top-trump-advisors-at-odds-over-paris-climate-deal/", "http://clicklancashire.com/2017/04/15/us-blocks-g7-climate-statement-as-white-house-waffles-on.html", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-senate-story-that-everyone-is-missing_us_58e810a4e4b06f8c18beebd5", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-mercers-trump-mega-donors-back-group-that-casts-doubt-on-climate-science/2017/03/26/dc1fde86-109b-11e7-9b0d-d27c98455440_story.html?utm_term=.d0e0770f7696", "https://www.ft.com/content/5900978a-136a-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_G7_summit"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-01-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/378

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. <hr> This question closed as Yes. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/tens-thousands-killed-south-sudan-war-160303054110110.html", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/south-sudan", "https://www.acleddata.com/data/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/war-hit-children-sudan-risk-imminent-death-180119153838240.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/824

True

2016-04-30

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

binary

In late September 2015, the Colombian government and FARC publicly pledged to conclude a peace deal within six months (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21666233-ultimatum-unblocks-groundbreaking-agreement-justice-big-leap-towards-peace-colombia" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-19875363" target = "_blank">BBC</a>). Recommended Question <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/9-will-the-government-of-venezuela-or-petroleos-de-venezuela-s-a-pdvsa-default-on-their-foreign-currency-debt-before-1-march-2016" target = "_blank">Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/22-will-brazil-s-president-dilma-rousseff-resign-or-be-impeached-before-1-april-2016" target = "_blank">Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?</a>

2016-05-02

gjopen

["http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/farc-peace-talks-in-cuba-miss-deadline-for-final-deal", "http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-thousands-protest-across-colombia-against-government-2197560", "http://colombiareports.com/one-farcs-feared-commanders-joins-peace-talks-havana/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Colombia-FARC-Peace-Talks-Just-Days-Away-from-Cease-fire-Deal-20160410-0028.html", "http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/04/20/colombia-rescinds-ban-pesticide-used-destroy-coca-crops/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/03/30/colombias-rebels-survived-war-now-they-worry-about-surviving-the-peace/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "http://colombiareports.com/farc-rebels-seek-popes-intervention-colombias-peace-talks/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/04/missed-deadline-farc-deal-colombian-government/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-211452135.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "http://ww4report.com/node/14767", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/203814", "http://www.laprensasa.com/309_america-in-english/3738541_colombian-rebel-leader-certain-of-success-in-peace-talks-with-gov-t.html", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/colombias-eln-rebels-enter-peace-talks-raise-hopes-for-more-changes/", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-04/10/c_135263976.htm", "http://www.humanosphere.org/world-politics/2016/04/colombia-farc-struggle-reach-agreement-peace-deal/", "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Santos-Blames-FARC-for-No-Deal-Sidesteps-Paramilitary-Violence-20160329-0058.html", "http://colombiareports.com/paramilitary-threat-puts-farc-peace-talks-hold/", "http://www.newsweek.com/farc-rebel-rehab-hopes-create-lasting-peace-colombia-451620", "http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/03/31/amid-floundering-farc-peace-talks-colombia-announces-similar-talks-terrorist-eln-group/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/07/gitrep-06apr16pm/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-02-02

0.0

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["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-20", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-21", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-22", 0.01], ["2016-04-23", 0.005], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-24", 0.01], ["2016-04-25", 0.01], ["2016-04-25", 0.01], ["2016-04-25", 0.01], ["2016-04-26", 0.0], ["2016-04-26", 0.0], ["2016-04-26", 0.0], ["2016-04-27", 0.0], ["2016-04-27", 0.0], ["2016-04-27", 0.0], ["2016-04-27", 0.0], ["2016-04-28", 0.0], ["2016-04-28", 0.0], ["2016-04-28", 0.0], ["2016-04-29", 0.0], ["2016-04-29", 0.0], ["2016-04-29", 0.0], ["2016-04-30", 0.0], ["2016-04-30", 0.0], ["2016-04-30", 0.0], ["2016-04-30", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/127

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this <a href = "https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/08/01/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-july-1-2017-june-30-2018/"target="_blank">GJ Open blog post written by EWP</a>. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.acleddata.com/data/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/519

True

2016-10-31

Will more than 1 million tourists visit Egypt in October 2016?

binary

This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 October 2016. There were 506,000 tourist arrivals in October of 2016 (<a href = "http://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/_layouts/xlviewer.aspx?id=/MonthlyStatisticaclBulletinDL/Real237.xlsx&DefaultItemOpen=1"target="_blank">Central Bank of Egypt</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Tourism has long played an important role in Egypt's economy, but political turmoil in the past several years has significantly reduced the number of foreign visitors to the country. This question will be resolved using data reported by the Central Bank of Egypt on their <a href="http://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/Pages/MonthlyStatisticaclBulletin.aspx" target="_blank">monthly statistical bulletin</a>. You can find the relevant table by downloading the "Real Sector" spreadsheet and looking at Tab 54 "Number of Tourists & Nights Spent." The relevant figure for this question is in the row labeled "Number of Tourist Arrivals," and the column labeled 2016 October. Egypt registered 909,000 tourist arrivals in October of 2015 (<a href="http://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/_layouts/xlviewer.aspx?id=/MonthlyStatisticaclBulletinDL/Real%20Sector%20232.xlsx&DefaultItemOpen=1" target="_blank">Central Bank of Egypt</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 October 2016, and closed when official numbers are released, typically two months later. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270-will-egypt-s-gdp-growth-rate-for-their-2016-2017-fiscal-year-equal-or-exceed-5" target="_blank">Will Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/269-what-will-the-settlement-price-of-the-january-2017-dubai-oman-crude-oil-futures-contract-be-on-30-november-2016" target="_blank">What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?</a>

2017-02-13

gjopen

["http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/egypt-tourism-new-approach-pyramids-private-sector.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/how-sharm-el-sheikh-struggled-to-recover-after-the-russian-plane-bombing-a7327651.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/egypt-tourism-new-approach-pyramids-private-sector.html#ixzz4NLJruo1g", "http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/10/12/503000-tourists-visited-egypt-august-2016-capmas/", "http://www2.unwto.org/content/why-tourism", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2016/10/11/egyptian-economic-policy-see-no-evil-hear-no-evil/?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=fp", "https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/oct/21/egypt-tourism-industry-plagued-by-lack-of-visitors", "http://enterprise.press/issues/2016/09/26/russians-coming-flights-resume-october/#tldr-story-01", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/tourist-arrivals", "http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/08/29/541117/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/334210", "http://menafn.com/1094985103/Russia-transportation-minister-denies-resumption-of-flights-to-Egypt-in-October", "http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/flights-between-frankfurt-and-sharm-el-sheikh-resume-october", "http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Egypt-s-Hurghada-Airport-to-reserve-terminal-for-Russian-tourists.html", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/tourist-arrivals/forecast", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/244965/Egypt/Politics-/Russias-Egypt-airport-inspections-constructive,-at.aspx", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/244680.aspx", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/245462/Business/Economy/Number-of-August-tourists-in-Egypt-down-pct-agains.aspx", "http://www.zawya.com/mena/en/business/story/CBE_Egypt_tourist_numbers_hit_23_million_in_H1-ZAWYA20160922053000/", "http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/09/26/51-decline-number-inbound-tourists-egypt-h1-2016-capmas/", "http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/08/24/220-hotels-shut-occupancy-collapses-tourist-areas/", "http://ftnnews.com/tours/30653-egypt-s-tourist-arrivals-drop-41-9-percent.html", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/216540/Egypt/Politics-/Germany-resumes-direct-flights-to-Sharm-ElSheikh-M.aspx", "http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Russian-Transport-Ministry-too-early-to-restore-air-traffic-between-Russia-and-Egypt.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/egypt-tourism-new-approach-pyramids-private-sector.html#ixzz4NLK0M2EM"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-09-13

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/280

True

2017-07-07

Before 1 September 2017, will the European Stability Mechanism approve the release of a third tranche of funds from the third economic adjustment programme for Greece?

binary

The third economic adjustment programme for Greece started in August 2015 (<a href = "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/financial-assistance-eurozone-members/greece-programme/"target="_blank">The European Council</a>). Two tranches of funds have been released, with the release of the third tranche currently under negotiation (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38910575"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.investing.com/analysis/another-try-200176876"target = "_blank">Investing.com</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/bcd3657a-f84f-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-negotiations-idUSKBN17014S"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" when the release of the next tranche of loans to Greece is approved, regardless of the amount. Approval to extend the review process or delay the approval decision, without accompanying approval to release additional monies, will not resolve the question as "yes." _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>. Recommended Questions: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405-will-a-border-adjustment-tax-be-passed-by-the-u-s-senate-or-house-of-representatives-before-30-april-2017"target="_blank">Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/390-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2017"target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/251-before-july-2017-will-the-new-development-bank-issue-any-rupee-denominated-bonds"target="_blank">Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds?</a>} <hr> ESM approved the release of a third tranche to Greece on 7 July 2017 (<a href = "https://www.esm.europa.eu/press-releases/esm-board-directors-approves-%E2%82%AC85-billion-loan-tranche-greece"target="_blank">ESM</a>). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of 7 July. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-07-18

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-eu-idUSKBN19430R", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-gdp-idUSKCN18B14M", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/imf-chief-urges-eurozone-to-back-greece-debt-relief-8841610", "http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/02/pr17145-statement-by-the-ec-esm-ecb-and-imf-on-negotiations-with-greece", "https://www.ft.com/content/6c2d629a-2f01-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a", "https://www.esm.europa.eu/assistance/greece", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUSKBN18X1SO", "http://www.politico.eu/article/greeces-elusive-debt-fix/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/french-presidential-election-results-2017-emmanuel-macron-victory-marine-le-pen-investors-economists-a7723456.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-esm-idUSKBN19S1ZT", "http://euandgreece.blogactiv.eu/2017/02/02/is-the-imf-necessary-for-the-3rd-greek-program/", "https://www.ft.com/content/dfbe5e06-3f43-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-22/greek-debt-relief-deal-fails-last-minute-germany-imf-clash", "http://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr052516", "https://euobserver.com/economic/137736", "https://www.esm.europa.eu/interviews/letter-editor-frankfurter-allgemeine-zeitung", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUSKBN18H14J", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-seeks-inclusion-in-ecbs-stimulus-plan-1496078306", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-parliament-vote-idUSKCN18E32I", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/219410/article/ekathimerini/business/esm-chief-optimistic-on-greece-but-advises-patience", "https://www.ft.com/content/bc4e6c62-3887-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKCN18C1XG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-bailout-idUSKBN1871I9", "http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=2435922", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-imf-debt-idUSKBN17Y27F"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-04

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/461

True

2016-02-20

Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

binary

<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Prime Minister Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the UK's membership in the EU before the end of 2017 (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10452" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887" target="_blank">BBC 1</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-33141819" target="_blank">BBC 2</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/30-before-1-january-2017-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-greece-is-leaving-the-eurozone" target = "_blank">Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/116-who-will-be-the-next-mayor-of-london" target = "_blank">Who will be the next mayor of London?</a>

2016-02-22

gjopen

["http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35621079", "http://www.theage.com.au/world/david-cameron-secures-eu-deal-but-cabinet-colleague-set-to-abandon-the-pm-20160220-gmz3h2.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/world/europe/british-prime-minister-announces-eu-referendum-date.html", "http://theage.com.au/world/david-cameron-secures-eu-deal-but-cabinet-colleague-set-to-abandon-the-pm-20160220-gmz3h2.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12164607/EU-referendum-eu-summit-david-cameron-brexit-live.html", "https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-statement-following-cabinet-meeting-on-eu-settlement-20-february-2016", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/19/eu-summit-all-night-negotiations-deal-cameron-live?page=with:block-56c789f6e4b0f2fd18cafa3c#block-56c789f6e4b0f2fd18cafa3c", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/19fe32bc-d6db-11e5-8887-98e7feb46f27.html#axzz40LMwqTa1", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166097/david-cameron-cabinet-leave-brexit-EU-referendum-june-23-live.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/world/europe/eu-deal-clears-path-for-british-referendum-on-membership.html?emc=edit_ee_20160220&amp;nl=todaysheadlines-europe&amp;nlid=70183565&amp;_r=0", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/19/teabags-and-treachery-but-meals-and-deals-elude-eu-players", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e15b54d6-d751-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html", "http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/bbc-banned-leading-news-bulletins-polls-during-eu-referendum-campaign", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-talks-on-eu-reform-enter-second-day-with-issues-still-unresolved-1455869486", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12177363/EU-referendum-Eurosceptic-ministers-reject-claim-Brexit-would-prompt-decade-of-uncertainty-as-pro-EU-camp-accused-of-instigating-Project-Fear-live.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/parliaments", "https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/700794714254086146", "http://www.politico.eu/article/tories-praise-david-camerons-non-existent-eu-brexit-deal/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/lithuanian-president-says-eu-has-reached-deal-with-u-k", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/139334", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/19/eu-summit-all-night-negotiations-deal-cameron-live", "https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/700798241638629377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw", "http://news.yahoo.com/eu-leaders-agree-brexit-deal-lithuania-president-211603383.html", "http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/grossbritannien-und-eu-tage-bis-zur-brexit-wahl-1.2872692"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-17

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/80

True

2016-11-08

Will Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) be re-elected this November?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Richard Burr won his bid for reelection on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is facing Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, a former state representative, in a close race with implications for which party will control the Senate after November (<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-north-carolina-senate-burr-vs-ross" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a>). Republicans, including Senator Burr and Governor McCrory, are facing tough races in North Carolina (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/worried-republicans-are-pouring-resources-into-north-carolina/2016/09/12/124c69d6-76da-11e6-b786-19d0cb1ed06c_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post 9/12/16</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/22/in-north-carolina-gov-pat-mccrorys-reelection-prospects-are-fading-fast/" target="_blank">Washington Post 9/22/16</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/215" target="_blank">Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/248" target="_blank">Which presidential candidate will win North Carolina?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/177" target="_blank">Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?</a>

2016-11-18

gjopen

["http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/north-carolina-richard-burr-competitive", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html", "http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/incumbent-senator-ahead-nc-poll", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/10/13/nc-senate-race-surprise-nail-biter-may-critical-senate-control/91964582/", "http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-congress-senate", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-election-forecast.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/337494", "https://www.buzzfeed.com/tariniparti/democratic-challenger-reports-big-fundraising-haul-in-key-no?utm_term=.xyBLNqMqB#.lwYNva0ab", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/?ex_cid=story-twitter", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/", "http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-north-carolina-senate-burr-vs-ross", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/", "https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/reelect.php", "http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2016/09/hpu-poll-in-nc-clinton-leads-trump-and-cooper-leads-mccrory/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/north-carolina-poll", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/richard-burr-carolina-senate-228297", "http://www.journalnow.com/news/local/sen-richard-burr-trump-has-to-be-sharp-on-his/article_68f7fed7-9a9f-5641-9423-20ea30f31c7c.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-09-30

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/290

True

2019-08-01

Before 1 August 2019, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?

binary

Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face greater scrutiny (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-shareholders/at-facebook-public-funds-join-push-to-remove-zuckerberg-as-chairman-idUSKCN1MR2GY" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/technology/facebook-data-russia-election-racism.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/zuckerberg-at-war-with-european-regulators-fa6e0376-4894-42f7-a0a3-c130882e2471.html" target="_blank">Axios</a>). Zuckerberg, who owns a majority of voting shares of the company, has resisted calls for a change in governance (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/why-mark-zuckerberg-wont-step-down-as-facebook-chairman.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p></p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span>

2019-08-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-07

0.0

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["2019-06-06", 0.05], ["2019-06-06", 0.05], ["2019-06-07", 0.05], ["2019-06-08", 0.05], ["2019-06-10", 0.05], ["2019-06-12", 0.05], ["2019-06-14", 0.05], ["2019-06-16", 0.05], ["2019-06-16", 0.05], ["2019-06-18", 0.05], ["2019-06-19", 0.05], ["2019-06-20", 0.05], ["2019-06-22", 0.05], ["2019-06-22", 0.05], ["2019-06-24", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-25", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-26", 0.05], ["2019-06-27", 0.05], ["2019-06-27", 0.05], ["2019-06-27", 0.05], ["2019-06-29", 0.05], ["2019-06-30", 0.05], ["2019-07-01", 0.05], ["2019-07-02", 0.05], ["2019-07-02", 0.05], ["2019-07-02", 0.05], ["2019-07-02", 0.05], ["2019-07-03", 0.05], ["2019-07-04", 0.05], ["2019-07-05", 0.05], ["2019-07-06", 0.05], ["2019-07-07", 0.05], ["2019-07-09", 0.05], ["2019-07-10", 0.05], ["2019-07-10", 0.05], ["2019-07-10", 0.05], ["2019-07-11", 0.05], ["2019-07-11", 0.05], ["2019-07-11", 0.05], ["2019-07-12", 0.05], ["2019-07-14", 0.05], ["2019-07-15", 0.05], ["2019-07-16", 0.05], ["2019-07-17", 0.05], ["2019-07-17", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-18", 0.05], ["2019-07-19", 0.05], ["2019-07-20", 0.05], ["2019-07-20", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-21", 0.05], ["2019-07-22", 0.045], ["2019-07-22", 0.04], ["2019-07-22", 0.04], ["2019-07-23", 0.04], ["2019-07-24", 0.04], ["2019-07-24", 0.04], ["2019-07-25", 0.04], ["2019-07-27", 0.04], ["2019-07-28", 0.04], ["2019-07-29", 0.03], ["2019-07-29", 0.03], ["2019-07-30", 0.03], ["2019-07-31", 0.03], ["2019-08-01", 0.03], ["2019-08-01", 0.03]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1056

True

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

[["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.07], ["2018-09-30", 0.065], ["2018-09-30", 0.07], ["2018-10-01", 0.08], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.08], ["2018-10-03", 0.08], ["2018-10-04", 0.08], ["2018-10-05", 0.08], ["2018-10-05", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.075], ["2018-10-07", 0.065], ["2018-10-07", 0.065], ["2018-10-09", 0.065], ["2018-10-11", 0.06], ["2018-10-12", 0.06], ["2018-10-14", 0.06], ["2018-10-14", 0.05], ["2018-10-14", 0.06], ["2018-10-15", 0.06], ["2018-10-15", 0.07], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-18", 0.075], ["2018-10-20", 0.075], ["2018-10-22", 0.05], ["2018-10-25", 0.05], ["2018-10-28", 0.05], ["2018-10-28", 0.075], ["2018-10-30", 0.075], ["2018-11-06", 0.075], ["2018-11-08", 0.05], ["2018-11-08", 0.09], ["2018-11-08", 0.05], ["2018-11-09", 0.065], ["2018-11-10", 0.065], ["2018-11-11", 0.05], ["2018-11-13", 0.05], ["2018-11-15", 0.065], ["2018-11-15", 0.065], ["2018-11-16", 0.105], ["2018-11-18", 0.09], ["2018-11-19", 0.115], ["2018-11-20", 0.115], ["2018-11-23", 0.115], ["2018-11-25", 0.115], ["2018-11-28", 0.115], ["2018-11-30", 0.12], ["2018-11-30", 0.17], ["2018-11-30", 0.175], ["2018-12-06", 0.215], ["2018-12-07", 0.2], ["2018-12-07", 0.2], ["2018-12-08", 0.2], ["2018-12-08", 0.2], ["2018-12-08", 0.23], ["2018-12-09", 0.23], ["2018-12-09", 0.23], ["2018-12-10", 0.25], ["2018-12-10", 0.25], ["2018-12-10", 0.25], ["2018-12-11", 0.25], ["2018-12-11", 0.25], ["2018-12-13", 0.285], ["2018-12-13", 0.285], ["2018-12-14", 0.285], ["2018-12-16", 0.25], ["2018-12-17", 0.25], ["2018-12-19", 0.25], ["2018-12-20", 0.25], ["2018-12-20", 0.25], ["2018-12-21", 0.25], ["2018-12-23", 0.25], ["2018-12-24", 0.24], ["2018-12-24", 0.24], ["2018-12-27", 0.25], ["2018-12-28", 0.25], ["2018-12-29", 0.25], ["2018-12-31", 0.25], ["2018-12-31", 0.25], ["2019-01-01", 0.25]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1015

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

[["2018-06-27", 0.75], ["2018-06-27", 0.77], ["2018-06-27", 0.385], ["2018-06-27", 0.425], ["2018-06-28", 0.43], ["2018-06-28", 0.45], ["2018-06-28", 0.45], ["2018-06-28", 0.525], ["2018-06-28", 0.525], ["2018-06-29", 0.425], ["2018-06-29", 0.29], ["2018-06-29", 0.25], ["2018-06-29", 0.25], ["2018-07-01", 0.15], ["2018-07-02", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.165], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.125], ["2018-07-06", 0.125], ["2018-07-09", 0.125], ["2018-07-10", 0.1], ["2018-07-12", 0.1], ["2018-07-13", 0.11], ["2018-07-15", 0.1], ["2018-07-15", 0.1], ["2018-07-16", 0.1], ["2018-07-18", 0.1], ["2018-07-19", 0.1], ["2018-07-19", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-29", 0.12], ["2018-07-29", 0.12], ["2018-07-30", 0.12], ["2018-07-30", 0.12], ["2018-08-02", 0.12], ["2018-08-05", 0.12], ["2018-08-09", 0.11], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-10", 0.11], ["2018-08-12", 0.1], ["2018-08-12", 0.1], ["2018-08-13", 0.1], ["2018-08-14", 0.1], ["2018-08-16", 0.08], ["2018-08-18", 0.08], ["2018-08-18", 0.08], ["2018-08-21", 0.08], ["2018-08-22", 0.085], ["2018-08-22", 0.085], ["2018-08-23", 0.085], ["2018-08-27", 0.085], ["2018-08-29", 0.085], ["2018-09-02", 0.085], ["2018-09-03", 0.085], ["2018-09-06", 0.085], ["2018-09-11", 0.085], ["2018-09-12", 0.085], ["2018-09-13", 0.085], ["2018-09-13", 0.06], ["2018-09-18", 0.06], ["2018-09-20", 0.06], ["2018-09-20", 0.07], ["2018-09-22", 0.07], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-26", 0.05], ["2018-09-28", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/978

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["https://www.laenderdaten.info/Afrika/Burundi/terrorismus.php"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/450

True

2017-10-01

Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 October 2017?

binary

The six party talks are a series of negotiations on dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program, involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the U.S. (<a href = "http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/six-party-talks-north-koreas-nuclear-program/p13593" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2017/article/12631/lower-nuclear-threshold"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). Talks stalled in 2008 (<a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/6partytalks"target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). China has expressed recent interest in resuming talks (<a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-12/01/c_135871120.htm"target="_blank">Xin Hua</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-idUSKBN15W272" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Recommended Questions: - <a href="gjopen.com/questions/310-when-will-china-next-deploy-a-deep-sea-oil-rig-in-another-country-s-exclusive-economic-zone-eez-without-that-country-s-permission">When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?</a> - <a href="gjopen.com/questions/350-will-india-and-pakistan-both-attend-a-south-asian-association-for-regional-cooperation-saarc-summit-before-1-january-2018">Will India and Pakistan both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit before 1 January 2018?</a> - <a href="gjopen.com/questions/361-will-the-philippines-participate-in-the-2017-balikatan-military-exercise">Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise?</a></h5> <hr> Six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program did not resume. This question was closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-04

gjopen

["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/us/politics/trump-north-korea-extortion-money.html?emc=edit_mbae_20170831&amp;nl=&amp;nlid=77825025&amp;te=1&amp;_r=0", "http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-iran-may-have-helped-rogue-state-britain-fears/news-story/cc3d021f19e000f0da56fa31e607df9e", "http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/NORTHKOREA-MISSILES/010031V7472/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-idUSKCN1BB0OH", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/north-korea-rex-tillerson-sees-possible-pathway-to-dialogue/8833188", "https://courses.physics.illinois.edu/phys280/sp2012/slides/12p280-5-delivery.pdf", "http://www.dw.com/en/nations-start-to-choose-sides-in-event-of-north-korea-war/a-40049024", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear/south-korea-eyes-bigger-warheads-north-korean-icbm-reportedly-on-the-move-idUSKCN1BD0VW", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/13/clapper-north-korea-nuclear-weapons-241589", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear/north-korea-earthquake-suggests-sixth-nuclear-test-as-trump-abe-discuss-escalating-crisis-idUSKCN1BD0VW", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/mattis-warns-north-korea-end-regime-destruction-people/story?id=49116627", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-report-idUSKCN1AU2GH", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-labour-china-insight-idUSKBN1AT00Q", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-advisers-idUSKCN1BB075", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-swiss/swiss-ready-to-mediate-in-north-korea-crisis-idUSKCN1BF157", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-jong-un-shown-ordering-more-warheads-after-tillersons-praise-for-restraint-1503488094", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/thinking-through-nuclear-command-and-control-in-north-korea/", "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15YgdrhrCM8", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-threatens-absolute-force-as-u-s-south-hold-military-drills-1503392504", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-missiles-idUKKCN1B2107", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-u-s-general-readies-military-plan-for-north-korea-but-pushes-for-diplomacy-1502626832", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-war-analysis-idUSKBN1AQ2LM", "https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/a-north-korean-meditator-828469", "http://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-nuclear-blackmail-aimed-at-direct-us-talks/a-40723000", "http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/09/17/551214870/some-say-its-time-to-rethink-responses-to-north-korea-nuclear-crisis"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/430

True

2020-01-01

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020?

binary

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria-civil-war-fast-facts/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256" target="_blank">BBC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>}<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2019-01-04

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1089

True

2017-03-31

Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)?

binary

The European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) was proposed by the European Commission in November 2014 as part of a larger plan to establish a banking union (<a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-6152_en.htm?locale=en, http://ec.europa.eu/finance/general-policy/banking-union/index_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>), but German opposition has stalled the process (<a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-banks-regulations-idUKKCN0YI1DI" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/9953afd5-d195-3be0-946e-f8fa43328356" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-says-bank-risks-must-be-cut-before-saver-deposit-scheme-agreed-1466157655" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). For more information on the existing proposal see: <a href="http://www.efdi.eu/sites/default/files/archive/eprs_bri2016579090_en.pdf" target="_blank">European Parliament</a>, <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/finance/general-policy/banking-union/european-deposit-insurance-scheme/index_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>. Adoption by vote of the European Parliament is the first step in <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/external/html/legislativeprocedure/default_en.htm" target="_blank">the EU's legislative process</a>. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/18" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/239" target="_blank">What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/237" target="_blank">Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?</a> <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 March 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-04-03

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-08-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/263

True

2019-02-03

Will President Trump and Colin Kaepernick meet face-to-face before Super Bowl LIII?

binary

Kanye West has called for a meeting between President Trump and NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick (<a href = "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kanye-west-donald-trump-colin-kaepernick-meet-talk/story?id=58232794"target="_blank">ABC</a>). Kaepernick initiated the protest movement of not standing during the national anthem played at NFL games, which President Trump has criticized (<a href = "http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000691077/article/colin-kaepernick-explains-why-he-sat-during-national-anthem"target="_blank">NFL</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/10/politics/trump-tweets-on-nfl-protests/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). <hr> This question closed No with a closing date of 3 February. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-02-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-10-12

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1028

True

2018-07-01

Before 1 July 2018, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of 'bump stocks'?

binary

In the wake of the <a href = "http://www.abc15.com/news/national/police-confirm-reports-of-active-shooter-in-las-vegas"target="_blank">mass shooting</a> in Las Vegas on 1 October, the role played by so-called <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/04/us/bump-stock-las-vegas-gun.html"target="_blank">'bump stocks'</a>, an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles, has been in focus. Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/politics/bump-stocks-gun-control-bill-introduced/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/politics/nra-opposes-bump-stock-bills/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them <a href = "http://thehill.com/homenews/house/354909-ryan-urges-atf-to-fix-bump-stock-gun-loophole"target="_blank">by regulation</a> under existing law. Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> There was no legislation passed in the House or Senate concerning bump stocks. This question closed as "No" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-10

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/20/trump-orders-bump-stock-ban-but-indicates-no-stronger-action-on-gun-control?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-ban-bump-stocks-atf-53276472", "https://goo.gl/NU7ibS", "https://www.theonion.com/new-school-shooter-drill-includes-practicing-pleas-to-l-1823049024", "http://www.routefifty.com/public-safety/2018/02/bump-stocks-state-gun-laws/146224/", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/24/republicans-gun-control-assault-weapons-ban", "https://twitter.com/CNN/status/966707132832903168", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/trump-bump-stocks.html", "https://www.apnews.com/8e52e86face646999ed769c965840e63/Trump-urges-ban-on-gun-devices-like-bump-stocks", "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&amp;q=bump%20stocks", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilliput_and_Blefuscu", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/05/politics/justice-department-rulemaking-legality-bump-stock/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-florida-shooting-guns/firearms-debate-rages-as-florida-rally-coincides-with-gun-show-idUSKCN1G10WB", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/20/politics/donald-trump-bump-stocks/index.html", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/115/hr3999/summary", "https://qz.com/1211774/can-donald-trump-ban-bump-stocks/", "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/canada-shouldnt-be-smug-when-it-comes-to-guns/article38064169/", "https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/atf-bump-stocks-las-vegas_us_5a284585e4b02d3bfc37cc72", "http://breaking911.com/full-text-memorandum-bump-stocks-president-trump-attorney-general-jeff-sessions/", "https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/politics/nra-opposes-bump-stock-bills/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lasvegas-shooting/las-vegas-gunman-emailed-about-bump-stocks-months-before-rampage-documents-idUSKBN1F205F", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/again-under-pressure-justice-department-plods-toward-regulation-of-bump-stocks/2018/02/23/5d5c6984-1806-11e8-92c9-376b4fe57ff7_story.html", "https://home.nra.org/joint-statement", "http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/375219-the-steps-to-making-trumps-bump-stock-regulation-a-reality", "http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-court-guns-20180220-story.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-20

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/662

True

2016-03-30

Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

binary

After November's parliamentary elections, the opposition National League for Democracy is on track to form the next government once parliament is seated in January 2016, but longstanding tensions between the NLD and Myanmar's military leaders could derail the process (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/14/world/asia/aung-san-suu-kyi-myanmar-election.html" target = "_blank">NYTimes</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/myanmars-elections-what-now/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/15/burmas-militarized-ministries/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/nld-tight-lipped-as-suu-kyi-starts-military-rapprochement" target = "_blank">Irrawaddy</a>). 3/2/16: Per GJI's <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#resolution5" target = "_blank">time policy</a>, the deadline for this question is 31 March at 11:59:59 Pacific time, which will be 1 April at 1:29:59 pm in Myanmar. Because 1:29 is a somewhat artificial deadline and we want forecasters to focus on the NLD taking office, not the exact timing during the day, we will treat any transition on 1 April (Myanmar time) as counting towards this resolution. Recommended Question <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130-will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-mass-killing-in-myanmar-before-1-january-2017" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a>

2016-03-30

gjopen

["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35923083", "http://www.irrawaddy.com/burma/htin-kyaw-tipped-as-nld-presidential-nominee.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5q77MQzU2Q", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/02/myanmar-parliament-advances-date-for-nominating-president.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-vote-idUSKCN0WH0H0", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/suu-kyi-loyalist-confirmed-myanmar-presidential-race-37568844", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/myanmar-presidential-candidates-announced-htin-kyaw-frontrunner/7236790", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/107-how-many-new-jobs-will-the-us-economy-create-in-january-2016", "https://apple.news/A_aGDCh4BRK6W7hJXa1JNIg", "https://twitter.com/earlywarnproj/status/709763927731806208", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35770535", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/15/asia/myanmar-nld-new-president/index.html", "http://in.reuters.com/article/myanmar-politics-vote-idINKCN0WH0H5", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/aung-san-suu-kyi-to-include-non-party-members-in-myanmar-government-cabinet-03042016161557.html", "http://www.ibtimes.com/suu-kyi-may-settle-foreign-minister-post-break-impasse-over-myanmar-presidency-2327744", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/03/09/world/asia/ap-as-myanmar-politics.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/12/gitrep-11mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35808921", "http://www.ibtimes.com/aung-san-suu-kyi-aide-favored-myanmar-presidency-2331349", "https://sg.news.yahoo.com/suu-kyi-party-rebuts-fake-myanmar-president-release-115043293.html?nhp=1", "http://www.businessinsider.com/r-myanmar-army-chief-endorses-election-of-suu-kyis-president-2016-3"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-12-08

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/95

True

2016-11-30

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?

binary

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page. Ethiopia is one of the most repressive regimes in the world. In December 2015, security forces killed over 140 people protesting city development plans (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35300471" target = "_blank">BBC</a>). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Ethiopia as one of the top 20 countries with the greatest risk of an onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/posts" target = "_blank">EWP's blog</a>. Recommended Question <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/102-who-will-win-uganda-s-next-presidential-election" target = "_blank">Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/110-how-many-eritrean-citizens-will-apply-for-asylum-in-europe-for-the-first-time-in-the-first-quarter-of-2016" target = "_blank">How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?</a> This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 30 November 2016. The EWP assessed that Ethiopia experienced a new mass killing episode in 2016 (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-03-30

gjopen

["https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2016/06/06/trends-over-time-in-state-led-mass-killing-through-2015", "http://qz.com/757824/how-the-ethiopia-protests-were-stifled-by-a-coordinated-internet-shutdown/", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/08/ethiopia-independent-inquiry-needed-irreecha", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37534387", "http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jointpub_operations.htm", "http://www.newsweek.com/can-ethiopias-new-cabinet-address-oromo-protests-518375", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96e9600c-88b1-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1.html", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/08/qa-recent-events-and-deaths-irreecha-festival-ethiopia", "https://morrellk.wordpress.com/2016/10/06/ethiopia-acled-data/", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/12/ethiopia-state-of-emergency-protests-corruption", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/341587", "http://www.acleddata.com/", "https://www.ft.com/content/753f033c-8f9e-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q3H4a9zjsu1EsE8exb-6innpIhBZZU2oMjHgY6aRMig/edit?usp=sharing", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/19/coalition-ngo-diaspora-groups-support-ethiopia-human-rights-resolution", "https://www.nazret.com/2016/12/04/discontent-grows-louder-in-ethiopia-as-regime-fights-for-survival/", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/08/ethiopia-dozens-killed-as-police-use-excessive-force-against-peaceful-protesters/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36940906", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37910542", "http://africanarguments.org/2016/10/07/ethiopia-how-popular-uprising-became-the-only-option/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/311161", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/375214", "http://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/11754/The_centre_holds_on", "https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/2013/06/dod-maro/", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/06/15/ethiopia-protest-crackdown-killed-hundreds"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-02-02

1.0

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0.05], ["2016-10-24", 0.05], ["2016-10-25", 0.05], ["2016-10-25", 0.05], ["2016-10-26", 0.05], ["2016-10-27", 0.05], ["2016-10-28", 0.06], ["2016-10-29", 0.06], ["2016-10-29", 0.065], ["2016-10-30", 0.065], ["2016-10-30", 0.07], ["2016-11-01", 0.07], ["2016-11-02", 0.06], ["2016-11-02", 0.055], ["2016-11-02", 0.05], ["2016-11-03", 0.05], ["2016-11-04", 0.05], ["2016-11-04", 0.05], ["2016-11-06", 0.05], ["2016-11-07", 0.055], ["2016-11-08", 0.055], ["2016-11-08", 0.05], ["2016-11-09", 0.05], ["2016-11-10", 0.05], ["2016-11-10", 0.05], ["2016-11-11", 0.05], ["2016-11-12", 0.05], ["2016-11-13", 0.05], ["2016-11-13", 0.05], ["2016-11-14", 0.05], ["2016-11-14", 0.05], ["2016-11-15", 0.05], ["2016-11-16", 0.05], ["2016-11-17", 0.05], ["2016-11-18", 0.05], ["2016-11-18", 0.05], ["2016-11-19", 0.05], ["2016-11-20", 0.05], ["2016-11-21", 0.05], ["2016-11-22", 0.05], ["2016-11-22", 0.05], ["2016-11-23", 0.05], ["2016-11-24", 0.05], ["2016-11-25", 0.05], ["2016-11-26", 0.05], ["2016-11-27", 0.05], ["2016-11-28", 0.05], ["2016-11-28", 0.05], ["2016-11-30", 0.05], ["2016-11-30", 0.05]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'Yes' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/617

True

2016-08-31

Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?

binary

This question was closed as "a) Yes." On 31 August 2016, Brazil's Senate voted to remove Dilma Rouseff from office, and Michel Temer was sworn in as the new President later that day (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeached-removed-president.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/31/americas/brazil-rousseff-impeachment-vote/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/09/01/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeached-michel-temer/" target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/michel-temer-seeks-new-start-as-brazils-president-1472676685" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). President Rousseff faces impeachment proceedings in Congress (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36209789" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0XV1UB" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/brazilian-senate-report-supports-motion-to-impeach-rousseff" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). For more information about the impeachment process see: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/04/world/americas/Brazil-Impeachment-Listy.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a> and article 86 of <a href="http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2006/teams/willr3/const.htm" target="_blank">Brazil's constitution</a>. Please note that suspension from office (e.g. during an impeachment trial), will not suffice to resolve the question. In the event that Rousseff reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJ will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of her disappearance or exodus. If Rousseff returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15" target="_blank">Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162" target="_blank">Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153" target="_blank">Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?</a>

2016-09-01

gjopen

["http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/25/491330705/beginning-of-the-end-impeachment-trial-opens-for-brazils-dilma-rousseff", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/28/rousseff-prepares-to-testify-at-brazil-impeachment-hearing", "http://g1.globo.com/politica/processo-de-impeachment-de-dilma/noticia/2016/08/impeachment-no-senado-discurso-final-de-antonio-valadares-psb-se.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-30/from-guerrilla-to-impeachment-the-dilma-rousseff-story", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/brazil-dilma-rousseff-trial-told-broke-laws-160828052638654.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/impeachment-trial-looms-for-brazils-beleaguered-rousseff/articleshow/53630316.cms", "http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/08/10/bresil-le-senat-decide-de-soumettre-rousseff-a-un-proces-en-destitution", "http://g1.globo.com/politica/processo-de-impeachment-de-dilma/noticia/2016/08/perguntas-e-respostas-sobre-votacao-do-impeachment-de-dilma.html", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/31/492064070/brazils-senate-prepares-for-final-vote-on-dilma-rousseffs-impeachment", "http://qz.com/763566/dilma-rousseffs-impeachment-trial-is-snapping-brazil-back-to-post-olympics-reality/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-whether-remove-president-nears-brazils-senate-041403303.html", "http://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-dow-30-a-look-into-the-last-five-recessions/", "http://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/senado-define-futuro-de-dilma-rousseff-nesta-terca-feira-20015986#ixzz4IrJUDMPV", "http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/rousseff-impeachment-trial-to-hear-closing-arguments/article31602783/?service=mobile", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/caae055a-5ec7-11e6-bb77-a121aa8abd95.html#axzz4GqC74VUG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-impeachment-vote-idUSKCN10L0HO", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Dilma_Rousseff", "http://www.brasil247.com/pt/247/poder/252566/54-senadores-j%C3%A1-se-declaram-a-favor-do-impeachment.htm", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/judgment-vote-looms-brazils-rousseff-135018622.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-impeachment-idUSKCN11007P", "https://www.rt.com/news/357361-chomsky-condemns-impeachment-rousseff/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/rousseff-offers-rare-mea-culpa-on-eve-of-brazil-impeachment-vote", "http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/upfront/2016/08/brazil-dilma-impeachment-case-study-hypocrisy-160812113243389.html", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/brazils-president-begin-impeachment-trial/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-10

1.0

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["2016-08-31", 0.97], ["2016-08-31", 0.97]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/197

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.ushmm.org/confront-genocide/cases/zimbabwe", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/violence-flares-in-zimbabwe-as-mugabe-readies-re-election-bid"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/522

True

2018-07-01

Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?

binary

During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (<A HREF = "http://www.newsweek.com/brexit-inspires-unthinkable-united-ireland-477224"target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election, has intensified the issue of Northern Ireland's governance status (<a href = "http://www.irishnews.com/news/2017/03/11/news/are-we-any-closer-to-a-border-poll--960596/"target="_blank">Irish News</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/bbca2ee4-0294-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). The 1998 Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the right to hold a referendum, or "border poll" on unification with Ireland, and some have floated the idea of an independence referendum (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-39266547"target="_blank">BBC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-02

gjopen

["https://www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-releases/press-release-archive/2017/november/statement-by-minister-coveney-on-northern-ireland/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN1AL0R1", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/21/mps-accuse-kate-hoey-of-putting-brexit-before-northern-ireland-peace", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nireland-politics/british-irish-pms-to-visit-northern-ireland-urging-end-to-political-crisis-idUSKBN1FW00C", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4619678/Commentary-Ireland--Theresa-Mays-latest-Brexit-blunder.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-rebels-idUSKBN19B3A1", "http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-northern-ireland-only-practical-solution-a7898831.html", "https://www.irishnews.com/news/politicalnews/2018/02/14/news/stormont-talks-have-failed-and-there-is-no-prospect-of-a-deal-says-dup-leader-arlene-foster-1256022/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/the-year-that-makes-or-breaks-brexit", "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/simon-coveney-sees-no-ambiguity-in-deal-on-post-brexit-border-1.3353525", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN1B4230", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-timeline-idUSKBN19A2FO?mod=related&amp;channelName=ousivMolt", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-politics/ireland-on-the-verge-of-snap-election-as-crisis-deepens-idUSKBN1DR15P", "https://www.foreignbrief.com/europe/trouble-northern-ireland-deadlock/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-talks/northern-irelands-dup-warns-of-speedy-return-to-rule-by-london-idUSKCN1BB2S4", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/20/ireland-kate-hoey-good-friday-agreement-remarks", "https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-issues-brexit-ultimatum-on-ireland/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/01/timeline-road-brexit/", "http://www.irishnews.com/news/2017/03/11/news/are-we-any-closer-to-a-border-poll--960596/", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3786046/sinn-feins-mps-fly-to-london-to-take-up-their-westminster-offices-sparking-fears-they-will-wreck-plans-for-a-tory-dup-majority/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN1AD1I4", "http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/06/14/brexit-dup-northern-ireland-troubles/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/13/theresa-may-just-negotiated-away-the-united-kingdom/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN1B70X5", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ireland-idUSKBN1AD0KG"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-21

0.0

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["2018-04-18", 0.01], ["2018-04-19", 0.01], ["2018-04-21", 0.01], ["2018-04-24", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-27", 0.01], ["2018-04-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-04", 0.01], ["2018-05-07", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-15", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-21", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-25", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-27", 0.01], ["2018-05-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-05", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-10", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-21", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-25", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-07-01", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/442

True

2018-10-01

Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-06-27

0.0

[["2018-06-27", 0.25], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.11], ["2018-06-27", 0.065], ["2018-06-27", 0.12], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.11], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-01", 0.11], ["2018-07-02", 0.11], ["2018-07-02", 0.07], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.06], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-04", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-09", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-14", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.045], ["2018-07-18", 0.045], ["2018-07-19", 0.045], ["2018-07-23", 0.045], ["2018-07-23", 0.045], ["2018-07-24", 0.035], ["2018-07-29", 0.035], ["2018-07-30", 0.035], ["2018-07-30", 0.035], ["2018-08-03", 0.035], ["2018-08-05", 0.035], ["2018-08-06", 0.035], ["2018-08-09", 0.02], ["2018-08-09", 0.02], ["2018-08-10", 0.02], ["2018-08-13", 0.02], ["2018-08-13", 0.02], ["2018-08-14", 0.015], ["2018-08-16", 0.015], ["2018-08-18", 0.015], ["2018-08-22", 0.015], ["2018-08-23", 0.015], ["2018-08-23", 0.015], ["2018-08-27", 0.015], ["2018-08-29", 0.015], ["2018-09-02", 0.015], ["2018-09-03", 0.02], ["2018-09-06", 0.02], ["2018-09-11", 0.02], ["2018-09-13", 0.02], ["2018-09-13", 0.02], ["2018-09-18", 0.02], ["2018-09-20", 0.02], ["2018-09-22", 0.03], ["2018-09-23", 0.03], ["2018-09-24", 0.03], ["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.03], ["2018-10-01", 0.03]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/982

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will a Chinese government entity or state owned enterprise take a stake in Youku Tudou, Tencent, or Weibo?

binary

China has proposed investing in web giants Tencent Holdings Ltd, Weibo Corp, and Youku Tudou, a platform owned by Alibaba Group Holding (<a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-pushes-for-a-direct-hand-in-chinas-big-tech-firms-1507758314"target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wants-to-own-small-stake-in-web-firms-1461781500"target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> A Chinese government entity or state owned enterprise did not yet take a stake in Youku Tudou, Tencent, or Weibo. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-04

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/770

True

2019-06-17

In Gamble v. United States, will the Supreme Court overrule the "separate sovereign" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause?

binary

Terance Gamble was convicted of being a felon in possession of a firearm by both the State of Alabama and the federal government (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/17-646-PWC.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>).&nbsp;He appealed his federal conviction, arguing that being prosecuted for the same crime by two courts violates the Double Jeopardy Clause of the Fifth Amendment (<a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-v" target="_blank">Constitution Center</a>).&nbsp; The Eleventh Circuit affirmed his conviction, noting that the Supreme Court had ruled “that prosecution in federal and state court for the same conduct does not violate the Double Jeopardy Clause because the state and federal governments are 'separate sovereigns' (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/17-646-opinion-below.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>).”&nbsp; The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.&nbsp;_{See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>}<sub style="font-size: 10.5px;">.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/17-646_d18e.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUS</a>).&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span>_.

2019-06-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-10-12

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1026

True

2017-09-01

Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?

binary

The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href = "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html"target="_blank">PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Month, Start Day, Start Year) between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is: ISR (Israel), and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, typically in mid-September via the .zip file which begins with January 2016. <hr> The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) <a href = "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html"target="_blank">Dataset</a> did not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017. This questions closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-10

gjopen

["http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-mp-prays-flashpoint-jerusalem-holy-site-1638187306", "https://www.slideshare.net/milouness/leading-above-mediocre-thinking", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/24/middleeast/israeli-embassy-jordan/index.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-prime-minister-withdrawal-settlements-49484179", "http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/comprehensive-listing-of-terrorism-victims-in-israel", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/former-counter-terrorism-chief-is-will-carry-out-chemical-attack/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/18/barcelona-attack-showed-hallmarks-new-terrorist-tactics/", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-declares-Hebron-an-official-Jewish-settlement-503705", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/experts/carmen-medina", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-police-palestinian-stabs-severely-wounds-israeli-48983759", "https://www.rebelsatwork.com/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/reports-israel-lawmakers-visit-al-aqsa-170824142936942.html", "http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/terrisraelsum.html", "https://www.maannews.com/Content.aspx?id=778745", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-israel-idUSKCN1B00OD", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/israeli-legislators-enter-al-aqsa-mosque-compound-170829115555896.html", "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/PITF_Atrocities.codebook.1.1B1.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/548

True

2016-09-08

Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?

binary

This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 9 September 2016 with an end date of 8 September 2016. On 8 September 2016, the first game of the 2016 NFL regular season was held between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos. Goodell's handling of "deflategate" has some calling for his ouster (<a href = "http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/24/how-does-the-nfls-roger-goodell-stay-in-power-by-acting-like-a-dictator/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a> , <a href = "http://www.si.com/nfl-fan-poll-2014" target = "_blank">Sports Illustrated</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/100-will-india-win-the-2016-icc-world-twenty20-cricket-tournament" target = "_blank">Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/133-will-google-s-alphago-beat-world-champion-lee-sedol-in-the-five-game-go-match-planned-for-march-2016" target = "_blank">Will Google's AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five-game Go match planned for March 2016?</a>

2016-09-09

gjopen

["http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/07/28/deflategate-roger-goodell-new-england-patriots-tom-brady", "http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys/article63176942.html", "http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/18/nfl-still-might-disclose-2015-psi-summaries/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_NFL_Commissioner", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2016/02/29/thanks-to-roger-goodell-nfl-revenues-projected-to-surpass-13-billion-in-2016/#2384b3283278", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/magazine/roger-goodells-unstoppable-football-machine.html?_r=0", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/sports/tom-brady-deflategate-new-england-patriots-suspension-reinstated.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=photo-spot-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0", "https://twitter.com/Gibberman10/status/709564769448042496", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2016/REG1", "https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/23/nfl-concussion-espn-investigation-study-funding", "http://pzfeed.com/breaking-news-roger-goodell-may-resign-soon/", "https://t.co/2mN8ZDaObV", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://deadspin.com/nfl-twitter-hacked-announces-roger-goodells-death-1781061387", "http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7502396/commissioner-roger-goodell-gets-extension-2018-season", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/in-deflategate-who-is-the-real-cheater-tom-brady-or-roger-goodell/2016/03/03/8d003de0-e172-11e5-8d98-4b3d9215ade1_story.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2016/09/01/after-10-years-of-serious-challenges-roger-goodell-emerges-undiminished-and-unopposed/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_goodell-912pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/282503-nfl-account-tweets-erroneous-news-after-apparent-breach", "http://on.wsj.com/1YTrbd5", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/07/gitrep-06apr16pm/", "http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000687554/article/2016-nfl-kickoff-fan-events-in-denver", "http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/09/08/mike-pereira-roger-goodell-shoved-me-during-argument-about-officiating/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/gitrep-29mar16pm/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-21

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44

True

2017-10-01

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

None

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-30

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/513

False

2019-01-01

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples " target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">FAQ</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;or&nbsp;</span><a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(22, 107, 118); font-size: 10.5px;">ask us for help</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpoct18sep19#" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019</a>."</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-05

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1013

True

2016-08-31

In the upcoming Hungarian referendum, will a majority vote "No," thereby rejecting the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation in Hungary?

binary

This question was voided on 31 August 2016 due to uncertainty over how the question would resolve if a low turnout invalidated the vote. <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/273" target="_blank">A new question</a> has been launched that explicitly addresses the turn out issue. A referendum scheduled for 2 October 2016 asks Hungarian voters: "Do you want to allow the European Union to mandate the resettlement of non-Hungarian citizens to Hungary without the approval of the National Assembly?" For more information see: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36711693" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN0ZL0QW" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/hungary-to-hold-ballot-on-eu-quotas-in-october-as-brexit-weighs" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/poll-hungary-largely-reject-fresh-influx-migrants-october-referendum" target="_blank">The Parliament Magazine</a>. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106" target="_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/193" target="_blank">Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/233" target="_blank">Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016?</a>

None

gjopen

["http://www.origo.hu/itthon/20160517-szazadveg-felmeres-72-szazalek-venne-reszt-kvota-nepszavazason.html", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3684113/How-DARE-Brussels-tell-migrants-live-country-Hungary-vote-no-Brexit-inspired-referendum-EU-demands-1-294-refugees-pay-300million-fine-instead.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_migrant_quota_referendum,_2016#Opinion_polls", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-hungary-orban-idUSKCN0ZH54H", "http://nepszava.hu/cikk/1103061-a-baloldali-szavazokon-mulik-a-kvotareferendum-ervenyessege", "https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/poll-hungary-largely-reject-fresh-influx-migrants-october-referendum", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_migrant_quota_referendum,_2016", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-05/hungary-s-manipulative-referendum", "http://hungarianfreepress.com/2016/08/23/plans-to-sabotage-hungarys-anti-migrant-referendum-gain-steam/", "https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ungarn", "http://24.hu/kozelet/2016/08/15/republikon-ervenyes-lehet-a-kvotanepszavazas/", "http://www.haon.hu/kvotareferendum-szazadveg-a-lakossag-84-szazaleka-elutasitja-a-betelepitesi-kvotat/3014150", "https://politicalvelcraft.org/2016/08/18/hungary-approaches-huexit-october-2nd-2016-anti-eu-referendum/", "http://m.journal-neo.org/2016/08/17/will-hungary-be-next-to-exit-the-eu/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-08-16

Not resolved.

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/262

False

2018-09-30

Before 1 October 2018, will either Russia or the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?

binary

For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see: <a href = "http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm"target="_blank">U.S Department of State</a>. Accusations of violations by both sides puts the future of the INF Treaty in question (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/escalation-threat-high-as-us-russia-inf-anti-missile-treaty-falters/a-41896421"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-10-03

gjopen

["http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/06/vladimir-putin-isnt-as-russian-as-he-seems/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/13/international/bush-pulls-out-of-abm-treaty-putin-calls-move-a-mistake.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/ef93af1e-0a8d-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09", "https://www.mda.mil/about/mission.html", "https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/02/13/us-urges-russia-honor-1987-arms-pact-warns-collapse.html", "https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/12/08/the-looming-end-of-the-inf-treaty/", "https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/02/277888.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/842-before-1-october-2018-will-either-russia-or-the-united-states-announce-that-it-is-suspending-its-participation-in-or-withdrawing-from-the-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-plans-for-new-us-nuclear-weapon-could-be-bargaining-chip-with-russia/2018/02/06/198a6d14-0b68-11e8-baf5-e629fc1cd21e_story.html?utm_term=.b69f60d82f27", "https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/101888.htm#text", "https://clintonwhitehouse5.archives.gov/WH/new/html/Wed_Oct_4_141122_2000.html", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-01/features/we-nearing-end-inf-treaty", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-russia/u-s-presses-russia-to-comply-with-nuclear-missile-treaty-idUSKBN1E224A", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_07-08/lookingback", "http://www.dw.com/en/russia-deploys-nuclear-capable-missile-system-in-kaliningrad-reports/a-42474925?maca=en-RSS_en_Flipboard-9487-xml-media", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Ballistic_Missile_Treaty", "https://news.am/eng/news/436251.html", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/106th-congress/senate-bill/269/text", "https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Putin-ally-warns-of-arms-race-as-Russia-considers-12603984.php", "http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/3054726", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-plans-for-new-us-nuclear-weapon-could-be-bargaining-chip-with-russia/2018/02/06/198a6d14-0b68-11e8-baf5-e629fc1cd21e_story.html?utm_term=.b69f60d82f27", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/08/vladimir-putin-russian-election-iran-zimbabwe", "https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-reactions-new-us-nuclear-posture-review", "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4365530-2018-Nuclear-Posture-Review-Final-Report.html", "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-01-10

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/842

True

2017-07-01

Will Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%?

binary

Egypt's economy has sputtered since 2011 despite billions of dollars in aid from neighboring states; the promise of a three-year, $12-billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund -- and the reforms that loan would require -- are spurring optimism among some observers and pessimism among others (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/world/middleeast/egypt-imf-loan.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3abdcdc-5fcd-11e6-ae3f-77baadeb1c93.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-economy-imf-deal-idUSKCN10M1LZ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Question will be resolved using data from Egypt's Central Bank, which releases monthly data on real sector growth (<a href="http://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/Pages/MonthlyStatisticaclBulletin.aspx" target="_blank">Central Bank of Egypt</a>). You can find the relevant table by clicking on the "Real Sector" Excel sheet and looking at Tab 44 "GDP by Expenditure (Constant Prices)." The relevant figure for this question is on the "GDP at Market Prices" row, and the column labeled 2016/2017 under "Growth Rate %". Question will be suspended on 30 June 2017, the end of Egypt's fiscal 2016/2017 fiscal year, and closed when the data is released, typically in early December. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/239" target="_blank">What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183" target="_blank">In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?</a> <hr> Egypt's growth rate did not equal or exceed 5% (<a href = "http://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/Pages/MonthlyStatisticaclBulletin.aspx"target="_blank">Central Bank of Egypt</a>). This question closed as "No" with an end date of July 1 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2020-01-14

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-cenbank-rates-idUSKBN18H113", "http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/egypt-population/", "http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/38111460208801133/Egypt-MEM.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315291", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/180351/Business/Economy/World-Bank-cuts-Egypts-predicted--growth-rate.aspx", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Egypt", "http://www.econotimes.com/Moodys-Expected-gradual-economic-recovery-in-Egypt-will-drive-profit-growth-for-insurers-318941", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/254759/Business/Economy/Egypts-economic-growth-rate-up-to--pct-in-Q-of--.aspx", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/gdp-growth-annual/forecast", "http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypts-annual-urban-consumer-price-inflation-jumps-233-pct-december-11272397?utm_campaign=Week+In+Review+&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=40668130&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--qDIr4cYwIPqG_K6I-fmbOGtE6G_Y4VQBcIKktn00JYU7Qmz1hKCR1V09JbNUXS6UKaj5oJ2qHR738HVFoFr84xnZ0VA&amp;_hsmi=40668130", "http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/12/28/egypts-economic-targets-line-economic-reality/", "http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2017/02/02/613786/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Egypt", "http://country.eiu.com/egypt", "https://knoema.com/atlas/Egypt/GDP-growth", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/gdp-growth/forecast", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/gdp-per-capita", "http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21703393-egypt-has-squandered-billions-dollars-aid-more-way-it", "http://egyptianstreets.com/2016/04/13/egypts-economic-growth-to-slow-in-2016-recover-in-2017-imf-forecast/", "http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/egypt/publication/economic-outlook-spring-2016", "http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/2-factors-drive-real-gdp-growth/", "http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/egypt", "http://www.icaew.com/-/media/corporate/files/technical/economy/economic-insight/middle-east/me-q3-2016-web.ashx", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/unemployment-rate", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2014_Egypt_Products_Export_Treemap.png"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-08-31

0.0

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["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will it be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired?

binary

Twitter has been the target of acquisition rumors with possible suitors including Google and Salesforce (<a href = "https://www.recode.net/2016/9/14/12876560/twitter-acquisition-options-google-facebook-apple"target="_blank">Redcode</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/01/twitter-acquisition-early-investor-chris-sacca-shark-tank.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Recommended Question: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/468"target="_blank">Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/392"target="_blank">Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/427"target="_blank">Before 1 January 2018, will the European Commission find Google liable in an antitrust case?</a> <hr> Twitter Inc. did not announce it is being acquired. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-16

gjopen

["https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=TWTR:NYQ", "https://www.google.com/search?q=twitter+acquisition&amp;source=lnt&amp;tbs=qdr:w&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwjfzKum1YvWAhVozIMKHZ_jAbYQpwUIIA&amp;biw=1920&amp;bih=912", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/realdonaldtrump", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-26/disney-said-to-be-working-with-adviser-on-potential-twitter-bid", "http://m.benzinga.com/article/9394564?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F", "https://www.thestreet.com/story/14107638/2/will-twitter-s-surprising-first-quarter-results-make-it-a-takeover-target-again.html", "https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/peter-thiel-mocks-pot-smoking-twitter-management/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/07/27/twitter-revenue-drops-user-growth-stalls/", "https://www.libraryforsmartinvestors.com/2017/05/worst-twitter-inc-nysetwtr-acquisition-offer-way/41370877.htm", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/hillaryclinton", "https://www.smarteranalyst.com/2016/10/05/alphabet-inc-googl-best-fit-acquire-twitter-twtr-top-analyst/", "https://www.recode.net/2016/9/14/12876560/twitter-acquisition-options-google-facebook-apple", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/cnn", "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/twtr?ltr=1", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-results-idUSKBN1AC1NJ?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-socialmedia-eu-consumersconsumers-idUSKBN16N2YI", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/twitter-earnings-q2-2017.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/dont-buy-the-twitter-comeback-stock-to-drop-50-percent-morgan-stanley-predicts.html", "https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2017/05/12/jack-dorsey-acquires-574002-shares-of-twitter-inc-twtr-stock-updated.html", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-23/ex-cia-agent-raising-cash-buy-twitter-and-delete-trumps-account", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-stocks-idUSKBN1AB0E9"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-09

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/480

True

2018-02-21

Will Nathan Chen win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?

binary

Nathan Chen was the only undefeated individual skater in the world this season in individual competition and will compete for an individual medal on 16-17 February (<a href = "https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/figure-skating/daily-schedule.htm"target="_blank">Olympic.org</a>). He "bombed in his Olympic debut Friday [9 February]" (<a href = "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/brennan/2018/02/13/figure-skating-nathan-chen-2018-winter-olympics/332055002/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} Nathan Chen did not win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 21 February 2018. <hr> <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-02-26

gjopen

["https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/17/sports/olympics/olympics-nathan-chen-quads.html", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-17/chens-quad-magic-falls-short-as-hanyu-takes-skating-gold/9458102"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-02-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/889

True

2016-02-10

Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary?

binary

This question asks about win probability, not vote share! For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target=“_blank”>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target=“_blank”>Schedule</a>. <br> <img src='https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Hillary_Clinton_official_Secretary_of_State_portrait_crop.jpg/192px-Hillary_Clinton_official_Secretary_of_State_portrait_crop.jpg' height='100'> <img src='https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/de/Bernie_Sanders.jpg/189px-Bernie_Sanders.jpg' height='100'> <img src='https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Who_is_it.png' height='95'> Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/121-which-republican-presidential-candidate-will-win-the-new-hampshire-primary-on-9-february/" target = "_blank"> Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/120-which-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-win-the-iowa-caucuses-on-1-february" target = "_blank">Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/119-which-republican-presidential-candidate-will-win-the-iowa-caucuses-on-1-february" target = "_blank">Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?</a>

2016-02-10

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/39

True

2017-10-01

Before 1 October 2017, will it be announced that the Large Hadron Collider has found evidence of "sparticles?"

binary

A crucial hypothesis in physics, supersymmetry posits that each of the known fundamental particles has a partner particle, known as a "sparticle." The Large Hadron Collider at CERN, Europe's particle physics laboratory, has yet to discover evidence of sparticles (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12781/so-long-susy?fsrc=scn/tw/wi/bl/ed/"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21709946-supersymmetry-beautiful-idea-there-still-no-evidence-support-it"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> There were no announcements of the Large Hadron Collider finding evidence of "sparticles." This question closed as "No," with an end date of 1 October 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-04

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/487

True

2016-06-23

Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?

binary

Resolved 6/24/16: The majority of British voters elected to leave the EU (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN0Z902K" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 22 June 2016. After concluding a deal with the EU in February, Prime Minister David Cameron scheduled a referendum on "Brexit" for 23 June 2016 (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693324-britains-out-referendum-will-be-held-june-23rd-david-cameron-strikes-european-union-deal" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/world/europe/british-prime-minister-announces-eu-referendum-date.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/116-who-will-be-the-next-mayor-of-london" target = "_blank">Who will be the next mayor of London?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/117-will-syria-hold-un-backed-elections-before-1-january-2018" target = "_blank">Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?</a>

2016-06-24

gjopen

["http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/janta-ka-budget-manish-sisodia-address-the-public-in-patparganj-constituency/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union", "http://fortune.com/2016/04/04/eu-multinationals-tax-havens/", "https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/3858-hsbc-and-ubs-forecast-parity-in-euro-to-pound", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EC-EU-enlargement_animation.gif", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wat_Tyler%27s_Revolt", "http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/index_en.htm", "http://hir.harvard.edu/brexit-will-good-european-integration/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/277185", "http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/e/ee/General_government_debt%2C_2014_and_2015_%28%C2%B9%29_%28general_government_consolidated_gross_debt%2C_%25_of_GDP%29_YB16_II.png", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/rating", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/rating", "http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/taxation/tax_fraud_evasion/a_huge_problem/index_en.htm", "https://next.ft.com/content/48d81c36-41bd-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/new-york-london-on-notice-as-china-targets-commodities-pricing", "https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/", "http://www.debtclocks.eu/eu-ranking-public-debt-in-percent-of-gdp.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paris_Commune", "http://www.visualcapitalist.com/by-this-measure-the-u-s-has-the-2nd-highest-national-debt/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848,_Revolutions_of", "http://www.colorado.edu/AmStudies/lewis/ecology/rolecreditagencies.pdf", "http://www.debtclocks.eu/public-debt-and-budget-deficits-comparison-of-the-eu-member-states.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_government", "https://eu.boell.org/en/2016/04/11/panama-papers-and-international-battle-against-tax-havens-lessons-eu", "https://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/149

True

2015-09-30

Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?

binary

Russia has undertaken a military buildup in Syria in recent weeks, leading some to worry that Russia will intervene directly in the conflict (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-exclusive-idUSKCN0R91H720150909 , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/john-kerry-russia-syria.html , http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-syria-russia-assad-obama-2015-9 , http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-russia-syria-20150905-story.html ).

2015-09-30

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/us-mideast-crisis-russia-airstrikes-idUSKCN0RO01320150924", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/russia-launches-first-airstrikes-against-targets-in-syria-says-us", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-mideast-crisis-putin-usa-idUSKCN0RR0H820150928", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/world/europe/russia-airstrikes-syria.html", "http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html/", "http://theworldweekly.com/newswire/reader/russia-seizes-the-initiative-on-syria-expecting-peace-talks-in-october-as-world-leaders-gather-at-the-un-general-assembly/4993", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russias-legislature-authorizes-putin-to-use-military-force-in-syria/2015/09/30/f069f752-6749-11e5-9ef3-fde182507eac_story.html", "http://www.dw.com/en/france-carries-out-airstrikes-against-is-in-syria/a-18744167", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/russia-syria-defense-official-214265", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34387433", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11898214/Vladimir-Putin-Russia-will-join-coalition-air-strikes-against-Isil-if-it-is-approved-by-Assad.html", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-jets-reportedly-bombed-us-backed-rebels-in-syria-2015-9", "http://www.janes.com/article/54732/russia-to-defend-core-syrian-government-areas?utm_campaign=PC6110_E15%20DF%20NL%20Security%2009_29_15&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=Eloqua", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/world/europe/putin-military-syria.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&amp;smid=nytcore-iphone-share", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/29/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html?eref=rss_world", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11900853/Putin-request-for-use-of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html", "http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-syria-air-strikes/27279381.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/29/world/middleeast/obama-and-putin-clash-at-un-on-mideast-crisis.html?ref=middleeast", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-seizing-the-initiative-in-syria-as-the-us-scrambles-for-answers-2015-9", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/28/leave-it-to-vlad-and-the-supreme-leader-obama-iraq-iran-middle-east/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34399164", "http://www.rt.com/news/317013-parliament-authorization-troops-abroad/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/149173", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34391054"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-21

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/42

True

2016-10-14

Will a woman be appointed to be the next secretary general of the UN?

binary

This question was closed as "No." On 14 October 2016, the Antonio Guterres was officially appointed as the next UN secretary-general (<a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55285#.WAEKtWUydFIhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-37648265" target="_blank">UN</a>). UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is scheduled to vacate the post at the end of 2016 and the process of selecting his successor has already begun (<a href="http://www.un.org/pga/70/sg/" target="_blank">United Nations</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-secretarygeneral-idUSKCN0X8294" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/world/un-secretary-general-candidates-ban-ki-moon.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). There has never been a female secretary general of the UN (<a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-n-ready-female-secretary-general-n545731" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4281653/helen-clark-united-nations-secretary-general-un-female-women/" target="_blank">TIME</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/117-will-syria-hold-un-backed-elections-before-1-january-2018" target="_blank"> Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a>

2016-10-14

gjopen

["http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/05/496724643/meet-the-man-tapped-to-become-the-next-u-n-secretary-general", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/05/world/un-secretary-general-antonio-guterres/", "http://www.rferl.org/a/russian-envoy-churkin-says-next-un-secretary-general-should-east-european-woman-georgieva/28030414.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-election-idUSKCN12D215?il=0", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-braude/a-clean-election-for-un-s_b_12352728.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-security-council-chooses-antonio-guterres-as-secretary-general-1475692334", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-election-idUSKCN125099", "http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/united-nations-elections-run-risk-of-becoming-a-farce/39722", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-06/security-council-agrees-on-portugals-guterres-next-un-chief/7907178", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55285", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55283#.V__74TJh1gg", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/05/antonio-guterres-to-be-new-secretary-general-of-the-united-natio/", "http://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/10/un-secretary-general/502979/?utm_source=atlfb", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/world/americas/antonio-guterres-un-secretary-general-united-nations.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/portugals-former-pm-antonio-guterres-clears-hurdle-to-be-next-united-nations-chief/articleshow/54701916.cms", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/333488", "http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/briefing/2016/7/5784b1ef4/unhcr-calls-open-borders-possible-south-sudan-refugee-outflows.html", "https://ria.ru/world/20161004/1478428977.html", "http://whitegenocideproject.com/un-demands-open-borders-for-europe-this-is-their-future/", "http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/georgieva-inclusive-east-europe-woman-head-42512392", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-secretary-general-1.3792296", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Portugal-s-Guterres-poised-to-be-next-UN-secretary-general", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55224#.V_bKBjKZOL4", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/europe/georgieva-un-would-be-inclusive-with-eeurope-woman-chief/2016/10/03/80e154ea-891f-11e6-8cdc-4fbb1973b506_story.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/30/former-new-zealand-pm-helen-clark-expected-to-battle-on-for-un-top-job"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-17

0.0

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["2016-10-06", 0.035], ["2016-10-06", 0.015], ["2016-10-06", 0.01], ["2016-10-06", 0.01], ["2016-10-06", 0.01], ["2016-10-06", 0.0], ["2016-10-07", 0.0], ["2016-10-07", 0.0], ["2016-10-08", 0.0], ["2016-10-08", 0.0], ["2016-10-09", 0.0], ["2016-10-09", 0.0], ["2016-10-09", 0.0], ["2016-10-10", 0.0], ["2016-10-10", 0.0], ["2016-10-10", 0.0], ["2016-10-11", 0.0], ["2016-10-11", 0.0], ["2016-10-12", 0.0], ["2016-10-12", 0.0], ["2016-10-12", 0.0], ["2016-10-13", 0.0], ["2016-10-13", 0.0], ["2016-10-14", 0.0], ["2016-10-14", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/202

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/02/24/yemen-us-should-investigate-civilian-deaths-raid"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/446

True

2018-01-01

Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017?

binary

In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (<a href = "http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/471251/icode/"target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/un-government-declare-famine-in-parts-of-south-sudan/3731713.html"target="_blank">Voa News</a>, <a href = "http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-detail-forms/ipcinfo-map-detail/en/c/471270/"target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification</a>),and other countries in Africa, including Nigeria, are facing the possibility of famine in the near future (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/world/africa/why-20-million-people-are-on-brink-of-famine-in-a-world-of-plenty.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39039255"target="_blank">BBC</a>,<a href = "http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a>, <a href = "http://www.fews.net/critical-situation-nigeria"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href = "http://wutc.org/post/who-declares-famine-and-what-does-actually-mean#stream/0"target="_blank">WUTC.org</a>. Both the declaration and the famine need to occur in 2017. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The UN did not declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["https://www.unicef.org/about/execboard/index_48248.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-security/suicide-bombers-kill-10-in-nigerias-maiduguri-emergency-official-idUSKBN1DF2UA?il=0", "http://www.fews.net/global/alert/november-28-2017", "http://executiveboard.wfp.org/wfp-calendar", "http://intelligencebriefs.com/dozens-of-boko-haram-terrorists-killed-scores-injured-by-nigerian-army-in-an-operation-at-the-sambisa-forest/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201711130036.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/famine-threatening-countries-casts-shadow-global-hunger-progress/story?id=50435363", "http://www.msf.org/en/article/borno-state-nigeria-crisis-update-november-2017", "http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/NIGERIA%20Food%20Security%20Outlook_October%202017-May%202018_0.pdf", "http://www.fews.net/", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/13/poll-reveals-85-percent-americans-oblivious-hunger-crisis-africa-and-middle-east-international-rescue-committee", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2017-10/famine.php", "https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/N1722473.pdf", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/02/world/un-aid-appeal/index.html", "https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-crisis-ets-situation-report-12-reporting-period-11017-311017", "http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7967e.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/464-will-the-un-declare-a-famine-in-any-part-of-nigeria-in-2017/www.guardian.com", "http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/FAO-countries/Nigeria/ToR/Fiche-Cadre_Harmonise_Nigeria-October_2017.pdf", "http://www.fao.org/about/meetings/en/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/northeast-nigeria-recovering-from-islamist-violence-unicef-says", "http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria", "https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Main%20season%20harvests%20in%20much%20of%20the%20northeast%20have%20been%20severely%20limited%20by%20the%20ongoing%20conflict.pdf", "http://www.guardian.com/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-security/suspected-boko-haram-militants-kill-eight-soldiers-one-civilian-in-nigerias-northeast-police-idUSKBN1CU2XL", "https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/247875-four-killed-12-wounded-boko-haram-ambush-borno.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-11

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/464

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.resolvenet.org/research/bangladesh-brink-mapping-evolving-social-geography-political-violence", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/bangladeshs-new-generation-of-militants/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/bangladesh/mapping-bangladesh-s-political-crisis", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1388124/bangladesh-opposition-leader-khaleda-zia-handed-5-year-jail-sentence-for-embezzlement", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/688867"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/839

True

2020-01-01

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?

binary

After multiple ICBM launches in 2017, North Korea's missile program has been comparatively quiet throughout 2018 (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/06/asia/north-korea-missile-tests-2017-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>

2020-01-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1053

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483", "http://www.nigeriatoday.ng/2017/06/usaid-wades-into-fulani-herdsmenfarmer-conflicts-in-nigeria/", "https://issafrica.org/iss-today/less-armed-conflict-but-more-political-violence-in-africa", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ACLED_Conflict-Trends-Report-No.55-February-2017_pdf..pdf", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201705290074.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/05/50-years-nigeria-biafra-secessionist-movement-170529151102396.html", "https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/04/25/fg-to-hold-national-conference-on-herdsmen-farmers-conflict-in-june/", "http://www.globalresearch.ca/hybrid-war-can-wreak-havoc-across-west-africa-2/5584061", "https://www.businessdayonline.com/nigeria-reaffirms-commitment-protect-civilians-armed-conflicts/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/19/world/africa/trump-special-forces-navy-seals.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/09/nigeria-baga-massacre-boko-haram-1-year-on", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/nigeria-boko-haram/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201704270276.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/10/u-s-looks-to-sell-ground-attack-aircraft-to-nigeria-report-says/?utm_term=.093f9d84f900", "http://www.acleddata.com/trend-4-trends-in-violence-by-country-in-2016/", "https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/257738.pdf", "http://www.nigeriatoday.ng/2017/06/security-a-conflicting-story-of-sadness-and-joy/", "http://ucdp.uu.se/#/exploratory", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/2018_blueprint.pdf", "https://www.armytimes.com/articles/soldiers-deploy-to-central-africa-to-support-the-fight-against-boko-haram", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/11/africa/un-famine-starvation-aid/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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["2017-06-28", 0.16], ["2017-06-29", 0.16], ["2017-06-29", 0.16], ["2017-06-29", 0.16], ["2017-06-30", 0.16], ["2017-07-01", 0.16], ["2017-07-01", 0.16]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/448

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1081

True

2015-09-21

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

binary

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stipulates that the IAEA will investigate possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, including research conducted at the Parchin military complex. Many argue that in-person, on-site inspections are vital and that video inspections or involvement in post-inspection analyses is not sufficient (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/iran-dismisses-reports-of-cleanup-at-parchin-military-complex , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/world/middleeast/prospect-of-self-inspections-by-iran-feeds-opposition-to-nuclear-deal.html ).

2015-09-28

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0RL0Z020150921", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-statement-director-generals-visit-iran", "http://www.israelpolicyforum.org/news/ipf-briefing-gary-samore", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/08/20/world/middleeast/ap-iran-nuclear-qa.html?_r=0&amp;referrer=", "http://mobile.tasnimnews.com/en/news/1393/01/01/860587", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:46417f21862e443fb9d7e99db4c838e9", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/21/middleeast/iran-nuclear-inspection/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-parchin-idUSKCN0RL0MT20150921?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews", "http://www.i24news.tv/en/mobile#content/86268", "http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iran-nuclear-talks/iaea-chief-heads-iran-push-progress-parchin-site-probe-n430236", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-20/iaea-s-top-inspector-gains-access-to-iran-s-parchin-site-iesqmrqc", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-statement-and-road-map-clarification-past-present-outstanding-issues-regarding-irans-nuclear-program", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-remarks-press-visit-iran", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-atomic-inspectors-visit-irans-parchin-site-1442769344", "http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/86268-150919-nuclear-chief-to-visit-iran-to-push-for-interviews-with-scientists", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/iran-says-ballyhoo-over-parchin-won-t-hinder-iaea-inspection", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/09/21/world/nuclear-watchdog-chief-amano-pays-ceremonial-visit-irans-parchin-military-site/#.Vf9tn99Viko", "http://news.yahoo.com/iranian-nuclear-experts-parchin-samples-without-iaea-irna-080237161.html", "http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-chief-visits-controversial-iran-officials-172223567.html", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-it-gave-iaea-parchin-samples-it-drew-itself/", "http://iranfrontpage.com/views/2015/09/settlement-of-parchin-question-can-be-a-milestone-in-iran-iaea-ties/", "http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/state-dept-irans-parchin-base-conventional-military-site-so-no", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0RL0Z020150921?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=topNews&amp;utm_source=twitter", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/20/us-iran-nuclear-visit-idUSKCN0RK0RX20150920", "https://www.iaea.org/press/?p=5189"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-14

1.0

[["2015-09-14", 0.05], ["2015-09-14", 0.025], ["2015-09-14", 0.01], ["2015-09-14", 0.03], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.075], ["2015-09-15", 0.1], ["2015-09-15", 0.125], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.2], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.325], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.18], ["2015-09-16", 0.215], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-16", 0.37], ["2015-09-16", 0.39], ["2015-09-16", 0.37], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-16", 0.37], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.39], ["2015-09-17", 0.4], ["2015-09-17", 0.4], ["2015-09-17", 0.4], ["2015-09-18", 0.425], ["2015-09-18", 0.425], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-18", 0.475], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.475], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.475], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/28

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.ushmm.org/confront-genocide/genocide-prevention-blog/central-african-republic-again-at-risk-for-mass-atrocities", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/chief-draws-attention-car-crisis-171019073644591.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/591715", "http://www.globalr2p.org/publications/569", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/the-central-african-republic-could-be-on-the-brink-of-a-bloodbath/2017/10/09/b26e59d0-a7bf-11e7-9a98-07140d2eed02_story.html?utm_term=.7df260467bee", "http://aa.com.tr/en/africa/attack-on-mosque-kills-20-in-central-african-republic/935640"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

[["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.25], ["2017-09-30", 0.375], ["2017-09-30", 0.25], ["2017-10-01", 0.075], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.15], ["2017-10-02", 0.3], ["2017-10-02", 0.25], ["2017-10-02", 0.36], ["2017-10-02", 0.16], ["2017-10-03", 0.15], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.04], ["2017-10-03", 0.04], ["2017-10-03", 0.04], ["2017-10-04", 0.04], ["2017-10-05", 0.03], ["2017-10-06", 0.03], ["2017-10-06", 0.01], ["2017-10-07", 0.005], ["2017-10-07", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-10", 0.0], ["2017-10-10", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-15", 0.0], ["2017-10-15", 0.0], ["2017-10-16", 0.005], ["2017-10-16", 0.005], ["2017-10-16", 0.005], ["2017-10-17", 0.005], ["2017-10-18", 0.005], ["2017-10-18", 0.005], ["2017-10-18", 0.005], ["2017-10-19", 0.005], ["2017-10-19", 0.005], ["2017-10-20", 0.005], ["2017-10-20", 0.005], ["2017-10-21", 0.005], ["2017-10-21", 0.005], ["2017-10-23", 0.005], ["2017-10-23", 0.005], ["2017-10-24", 0.005], ["2017-10-24", 0.005], ["2017-10-25", 0.005], ["2017-10-25", 0.005], ["2017-10-26", 0.005], ["2017-10-26", 0.005], ["2017-10-27", 0.005], ["2017-10-27", 0.005], ["2017-10-29", 0.005], ["2017-10-29", 0.005], ["2017-10-29", 0.005], ["2017-10-30", 0.005], ["2017-10-30", 0.005], ["2017-10-30", 0.005], ["2017-10-31", 0.005], ["2017-10-31", 0.005], ["2017-11-01", 0.005], ["2017-11-01", 0.005], ["2017-11-02", 0.005], ["2017-11-02", 0.005], ["2017-11-03", 0.005], ["2017-11-03", 0.005], ["2017-11-04", 0.005], ["2017-11-04", 0.005], ["2017-11-05", 0.005], ["2017-11-06", 0.005], ["2017-11-07", 0.005], ["2017-11-08", 0.005], ["2017-11-08", 0.005], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-09", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-10", 0.01], ["2017-11-12", 0.01], ["2017-11-12", 0.01], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.015], ["2017-11-19", 0.015], ["2017-11-20", 0.015], ["2017-11-20", 0.015], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-22", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-07", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-12", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-14", 0.01], ["2017-12-14", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/630

True

2019-03-31

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org"target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2020-03-18

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-28

0.0

[["2018-12-28", 0.28], ["2018-12-28", 0.265], ["2018-12-29", 0.265], ["2018-12-29", 0.27], ["2018-12-31", 0.27], ["2018-12-31", 0.26], ["2018-12-31", 0.155], ["2019-01-02", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.25], ["2019-01-02", 0.15], ["2019-01-03", 0.05], ["2019-01-03", 0.04], ["2019-01-04", 0.04], ["2019-01-04", 0.05], ["2019-01-04", 0.06], ["2019-01-06", 0.11], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06", 0.125], ["2019-01-06", 0.125], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-07", 0.15], ["2019-01-07", 0.185], ["2019-01-07", 0.175], ["2019-01-07", 0.175], ["2019-01-09", 0.2], ["2019-01-10", 0.21], ["2019-01-11", 0.235], ["2019-01-13", 0.235], ["2019-01-13", 0.235], ["2019-01-15", 0.21], ["2019-01-15", 0.21], ["2019-01-16", 0.21], ["2019-01-18", 0.21], ["2019-01-19", 0.22], ["2019-01-20", 0.22], ["2019-01-22", 0.22], ["2019-01-26", 0.25], ["2019-01-30", 0.25], ["2019-01-31", 0.25], ["2019-02-01", 0.245], ["2019-02-01", 0.245], ["2019-02-01", 0.235], ["2019-02-03", 0.19], ["2019-02-04", 0.23], ["2019-02-05", 0.23], ["2019-02-05", 0.23], ["2019-02-08", 0.16], ["2019-02-08", 0.16], ["2019-02-11", 0.16], ["2019-02-12", 0.16], ["2019-02-12", 0.16], ["2019-02-13", 0.205], ["2019-02-16", 0.205], ["2019-02-16", 0.205], ["2019-02-17", 0.205], ["2019-02-20", 0.205], ["2019-02-23", 0.205], ["2019-02-24", 0.16], ["2019-02-26", 0.16], ["2019-02-28", 0.16], ["2019-02-28", 0.16], ["2019-03-01", 0.16], ["2019-03-01", 0.155], ["2019-03-04", 0.155], ["2019-03-05", 0.135], ["2019-03-07", 0.14], ["2019-03-07", 0.15], ["2019-03-09", 0.13], ["2019-03-09", 0.125], ["2019-03-10", 0.125], ["2019-03-11", 0.125], ["2019-03-11", 0.1], ["2019-03-11", 0.1], ["2019-03-12", 0.1], ["2019-03-12", 0.1], ["2019-03-13", 0.1], ["2019-03-14", 0.1], ["2019-03-19", 0.1], ["2019-03-22", 0.1], ["2019-03-22", 0.08], ["2019-03-22", 0.08], ["2019-03-25", 0.08], ["2019-03-29", 0.08], ["2019-03-29", 0.08], ["2019-03-30", 0.06], ["2019-03-30", 0.06], ["2019-03-31", 0.06]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1080

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257514.htm"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/452

True

2016-07-15

Will Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) be re-elected this November?

binary

This question was closed with the answer "No" on 19 July 2016 with an end date of 15 July 2016. Mike Pence, who is now Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate, withdrew from Indiana's governor race on 15 July 2016 (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/mike-pence-indiana-governor-race/2016/07/15/id/738947/" target="_blank">Newsmax</a>, <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/15/pence-out-indiana-gubernatorial-race-after-vp-pick.html" target="_blank">FOX News</a>). <br/> John Gregg is challenging Govenor Pence in this year's election (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/15/republicans-are-sitting-pretty-in-the-top-5-governors-races-in-2016/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/177" target="_blank">Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/178" target="_blank">Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/215" target="_blank">Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November?</a>

2016-07-19

gjopen

["http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/11/gov-or-vp-indiana-s-pence-has-friday-ballot-deadline.html", "http://howeypolitics.com/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/280214", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/287515-trump-meets-with-pence-amid-vp-speculation", "http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/07/05/pence-trumps-vp-he-has-10-days-decide/86704444/", "http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-governors", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/us/politics/donald-trump-vice-president.html?emc=edit_ee_20160702&amp;nl=todaysheadlines-europe&amp;nlid=70183565", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/279530", "https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana_gubernatorial_election,_2016", "http://www.ballstatedaily.com/article/2016/04/news-gregg-pence", "http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/07/01/pence-meeting-trump-amid-vp-speculation/86596164/?hootPostID=0131b1d911d7d1e8d394be19fd3d46de", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/14/donald-trump-just-left-the-indiana-gop-in-limbo/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-vp-process-spins-out-of-control-or-did-it/2016/07/14/2ad9c1ea-4a31-11e6-bdb9-701687974517_story.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36800811", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_gubernatorial_election,_2016#Polling"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-03

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/214

True

2018-03-31

Will the Taliban take Lashkar Gah before 1 April 2018?

binary

Afghanistan's war against the Taliban insurgency rages on as government forces fight to retain control of Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of the strategically important Helmand province (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2017/01/afghanistan-taliban-gate-170124113723975.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://features.foreignpolicy.com/first-helmand-then-afghanistan/"target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-dozens-taliban-militants-killed/28364708.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 March 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-04-03

gjopen

["https://sofrep.com/author/sam-faddis/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/06/06/seal-team-6-the-cia-and-the-secret-history-of-u-s-kill-missions/?utm_term=.56b369b33410", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/afghanistan-quagmire-leaves-u-s-no-good-options", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/486-will-the-taliban-take-lashkar-gah-before-1-april-2018/www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA396780", "http://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/us-program-revive-afghan-economy-fails-sigar", "https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/cia-and-the-vietnam-policymakers-three-epis", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/04/world/middleeast/isis-syria-al-qaeda.html", "https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-taliban-marine-general/29014132.html", "https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2018-ATA", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-building", "https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2018-01-30qr.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/asia/afghan-militia-leaders-empowered-by-us-to-fight-taliban-inspire-fear-in-villages.html", "https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/congressional-testimonies/item/1845-statement-for-the-record-worldwide-threat-assessment-of-the-us-intelligence-community", "http://isc.independent.gov.uk/news-archive/20december2017", "https://investigaterussia.org/media/2018-02-07/russians-hacked-voter-rolls", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/us-demands-pakistan-arrest-top-haqqani-taliban-leaders", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/world/asia/pakistan-taliban-commander.html", "https://mwi.usma.edu/war-books-special-edition-centcom-commanders-2018-reading-list/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/taliban-suicide-bomber-kills-pakistani-soldiers-swat-180203174505673.html", "https://www.npr.org/2018/01/29/581674957/how-the-trump-administrations-aid-agency-is-faring-with-budget-cuts", "https://www.ft.com/content/c02212be-0828-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5", "http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA396780", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/marines-see-afghan-forces-improve-in-helmand-battles/2018/02/01/c6284db0-079f-11e8-aa61-f3391373867e_story.html?utm_term=.2c77c1585873", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42929370", "http://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/News-Article-View/Article/1431253/afghan-forces-apply-pressure-to-insurgents-with-renewed-resolve/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/486

True

2016-07-01

Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?

binary

This question resolved on 30 June 2016: While talks are progressing, no announcement has been made (<a href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/06/25/0301000000AEN20160625000400315.html" target="_blank">Yonhap News Agency</a>) South Korea and the US began high level talks on deployment of THAAD in the wake of North Korea's nuclear test and missile launch (<a href="http://www.usfk.mil/Media/News/tabid/12660/Article/651588/rok-us-joint-announcement.aspx" target="_blank">U.S. Forces Korea</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-missiledefense-idUSKCN0VH034" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1931667/us-offers-brief-china-over-deployment-thaad-missile" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73" target="_blank">Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115" target="_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/130" target="_blank">Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?</a>

2016-07-05

gjopen

["http://38north.org/2016/06/jschilling062316/", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/06/205_207826.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36593321", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/north-koreas-musudan-missile-test-actually-succeeded-what-now/", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/06/25/0301000000AEN20160625000400315.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-southkorea-security-idUSKCN0ZF12J", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/06/205_206385.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/08/south-korea-and-us-agree-to-deploy-thaad-missile-defence-system", "http://www.japantoday.com/category/world/view/washington-hopes-to-wrap-up-anti-missile-deal-with-south-korea", "http://sputniknews.com/military/20160630/1042209421/thaad-russia-korea.html", "https://youtu.be/-m86H1ed4yw", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/251644", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/271143", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KM-SAM", "http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/791223/us-republic-of-korea-japan-trilateral-defense-ministers-meeting-joint-press-sta", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/06/06/South-Korea-considering-possible-locations-for-US-THAAD-deployment/2221465232851/", "https://www.nknews.org/2016/06/s-korea-undoubtedly-intends-to-deploy-thaad-defense-minister/", "http://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2016/budget_justification/pdfs/02_Procurement/MDA_PROCUREMENT_MasterJustificationBook_Missile_Defense_Agency_PB_2016_1.pdf", "http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/phone/news/view.jsp?req_newsidx=206474", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/06/205_207116.html", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/06/24/Seoul-THAAD-can-intercept-North-Korea-Musudan-missiles/1941466774982/", "http://www.koreatimesus.com/seoul-washington-discussing-location-of-thaad-deployment/", "http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3020651&amp;cloc=joongangdaily%7Chome%7Cnewslist2", "https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:iaiAIG54eZ8J:english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/06/15/69/0200000000AEN20160615001300315F.html+&amp;cd=1&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=au&amp;client=opera", "http://nation.com.pk/international/24-Jun-2016/kim-says-new-missile-can-strike-us-pacific-bases"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-05

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/173

True

2017-07-01

Before 1 July 2017, will Russia allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?

binary

In 2011, Russia began allowing Turkish citizens to enter its territory without visas for a period of up to 30 days (<a href="http://tass.ru/en/world/848154" target="_blank">TASS Russian News Agency</a>). Russia suspended that arrangement in November 2015 after Turkish forces downed a Russian military jet (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-signs-sweeping-economic-sanctions-against-turkey/2015/11/28/f3f5fff4-9603-11e5-befa-99ceebcbb272_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-turkey-jet-visa-travel-agreement-2015-11" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>). In August 2016, Russian president Vladimir Putin and President Erdogan moved toward rapprochement and committed to working toward a full restoration of economic and trade ties (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/world/europe/putin-erdogan-russia-turkey.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-erdogan-pivots-to-putin-as-tensions-rise-with-the-west/2016/08/08/43c19884-5d93-11e6-84c1-6d27287896b5_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Shortly afterwards, Russia lifted the restrictions on charter flights to Turkey (<a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1003389.shtml" target="_blank">Global Times</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/286" target="_blank">Before 2018, will there be a new president of Zimbabwe?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/250" target="_blank">Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221" target="_blank">Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?</a> <hr> There is no evidence that the Russian government has implemented any changes to the restrictions which were in place at time of question launch. The question has been closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-07-06

gjopen

["http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1373&amp;context=clr", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/516143", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plain_meaning_rule", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24944325", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/putin-removes-restrictions-on-operations-of-turkish-firms-in-russia.aspx?pageID=238&amp;nID=113760&amp;NewsCatID=344", "http://www.garant.ru/hotlaw/federal/1114099/", "https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ru/Documents/tax/lt-in-focus/english/2017/2-june-en.pdf", "http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/russias-aircraft-carrier-to-visit-syrian-naval-base/", "http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/54640", "http://www.jepeterson.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/Foreign_Military_Presence_in_the_Gulf.pdf", "http://weknownyourdreamz.com/images/sadness/sadness-07.jpg", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/may/31/russia-relaxes-economic-sanctions-visa-rules-on-turkey-1611271.html", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/strict_construction", "http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/0207thomason.pdf", "http://en.ria.ru/world/20130627/181909679/Russian-Navy-Pulls-Personnel-Out-of-Syria-Base--Deputy-FM.html", "https://www.sipri.org/publications/1989/bases-abroad-global-foreign-military-presence", "http://www.ponarseurasia.org/sites/default/files/policy-memos", "http://www.ponarseurasia.org/sites/default/files/policy-memos-pdf/pepm198.pdf", "http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Backgrounder_Russian_NavalBaseTartus.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/524604", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/512367", "http://tass.com/world/953096", "http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/50805", "https://www.rt.com/business/390319-putin-softens-sanctions-turkey/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-strategy/188911-russia-continues-weapons-shipments-to-syria"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-10-04

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/294

True

2017-05-31

Will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet to discuss the peace process before 1 June 2017?

binary

The latest round of direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ended in 2014, but diplomats and heads of state continue to press for the resumption of the peace process (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-palestinian-peace-initiatives-are-suddenly-popping-up-everywhere/2016/06/02/e458dd3e-282d-11e6-8329-6104954928d2_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post 06/02/16</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/diplomats-want-israeli-palestinian-peace-talks-by-end-of-the-year/2016/06/03/626255fa-29a2-11e6-a3c4-0724e8e24f3f_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post 6/03/16</a>, <a href = "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/08/24/Vladimir-Putin-offers-Middle-East-peace-talks-for-Israel-Palestinians/6791472014436/" target = "_blank">United Press International</a>, <a href = "http://www.timesofisrael.com/at-un-sissi-urges-israel-to-move-toward-peace/" target = "_blank">Times of Israel</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = " https://www.gjopen.com/questions/294" target = "_blank">the travel of Turkish Citizens in Russia without a Visa</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/278" target = "_blank"> the Syrian Refugee status</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2017-06-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-12-13

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/367

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/913

True

2016-07-01

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

binary

The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (<a href = "http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/nuclear-iran-weekly/how-will-inspections-work-iran-under-nuclear-deal" target = "_blank">Iran Watch</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/89-how-will-iran-rank-in-the-world-economic-forum-s-2016-2017-global-competitiveness-index" target = "_blank">How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/137-will-the-us-or-the-un-impose-any-new-sanctions-on-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/145-will-china-conduct-bilateral-military-exercises-with-either-iran-or-saudi-arabia-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?</a>

2016-07-01

gjopen

["http://www.thetower.org/3542-nuclear-experts-iaea-needs-access-to-parchin-to-determine-if-iran-is-following-nuclear-deal/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/uranium-provides-new-clue-on-irans-past-nuclear-arms-work-1466380760", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "https://www.armscontrol.org/Issue-Briefs/2015-09-03/Frequently-Asked-Questions-About-The-Iran-Deal-Part-Two", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/04/02/458655/Iran-IAEA-JCPOA-P51-Amano-Nuclear-Deal/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/144232", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/16/06/gov2016-23.pdf", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/01/gitrep-1may16am/", "http://www.algemeiner.com/2016/06/27/scandal-the-new-york-times-favorite-source-on-iran-was-getting-paid-by-boeing/#", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Parchin_Post_Implementation_Day_June_20_2016_Final.pdf", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/25/nuclear-deal-in-place-iran-is-testing-new-missiles-and-doubling-down-in-syria/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-iran-arms-idUSKCN0X80MM", "http://www.voanews.com/content/ap-russia-west-differ-on-un-report-on-iran-nuclear-program/3225407.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm/", "http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-jason-rezaian-release-20160118-story.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/03/gitrep-2may16pm/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-10-02

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/51

True

2017-04-17

Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass?

binary

Turkey is scheduled to hold a contentious constitutional referendum in April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39064657"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/02/debating-in-whispers-opposition-fearful-ahead-of-turkish-referendum"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3008/#_ftn1"target="_blank">Election Guide</a>, <a href = "https://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2017/03/10/eu-states-align-with-no-voters-for-constitutional-referendum-in-turkey-via-bans-pm-yildirim-says"target="_blank">Daily Sabah</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Recommended Questions: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/442-before-1-july-2018-will-a-date-be-set-for-a-referendum-on-northern-ireland-s-governance-status"target="_blank">Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/391-will-angela-merkel-be-elected-as-chancellor-of-germany-after-the-2017-bundestag-election"target="_blank">Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/357-before-1-july-2017-will-a-date-be-set-for-early-general-elections-in-the-united-kingdom"target="_blank">Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom?</a> <hr> This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 16 April 2017. Turkey's constitutional referendum passed on 16 April 2017 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-16/erdogan-declares-victory-as-opposition-contest-turkish-result"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>), but the opposition party challenged the results (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/chp-blasts-election-board-referendum-result-170417034950684.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/turkey/16042017"target="_blank">Rudaw</a>). The electoral commission rejected the petitions challenging the results and an appeal of that decision to the State Council of Turkey was refused (<a href = "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-supreme-election-board-announces-official-charter-referendum-results-.aspx?pageID=238&nid=112510&NewsCatID=338"target="_blank">Hurriyet Daily News</a>); official results were released on 27 April 2017, certifying the passage of the referendum (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-referendum-idUSKBN17T2SL"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).

2017-04-28

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-04

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/462

True

2018-01-01

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?

binary

Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21"target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm"target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (<a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm"target="_blank">NATO</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href ="gjopen.com/questions/368"target="_blank">India will sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018</a> or on whether <a href = "gjopen.com/questions/377"target="_blank">the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA before 30 April 2017.}" <hr> No NATO member invoked Article 4 or Article 5. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-before-1-january-2018/www.gmfus.org/blog/2017/06/02/abandoning-liberal-international-order-spheres-influence", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty", "http://www.nato.int/cps/cn/natohq/topics_110496.htm", "http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/sicherheitskonferenz-fake-news-101.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iraq-mosul-offensive-20170218-story.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO", "https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/8405161-kaliningrad-pourrait-etre-le-detonateur-d-un-prochain-conflit-mondial.html", "http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2017/06/02/abandoning-liberal-international-order-spheres-influence", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/454820", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-10/putin-has-eastern-europe-hearing-trump-s-call-to-arms", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/446385", "http://www.transactionpub.com/title/An-Uncertain-Ally-978-1-4128-6538-8.htm", "http://www.nato.int/cps/ro/natohq/topics_49187.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-un-idUSKBN16O2J6", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-baltics-russia-idUSKBN1630W2", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/446461", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/14/avdiivka-frontline-ukraine-war-russia-backed-separatists", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21", "http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/", "http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1202903/responding-to-the-inf-treaty-violation/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_4"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-02-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409

True

2017-04-29

Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?

binary

The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. Republicans have tried to repeal the ACA many times since it was passed in 2010, but with control of Congress and the presidency they now have the opportunity to act on President-elect Trump's promise to repeal the individual mandate or ACA in its entirety (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days"target = "_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/repealing-and-replacing-obamacare-will-take-time.html"target = "_blank"> CNBC</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/08/politics/obamacare-battle-2017/index.html"target = "_blank"> CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.bna.com/obamacares-individual-mandate-b73014447779/"target = "_blank"> The Bureau of National Affairs</a>). The passage of legislation which prohibits the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate would resolve the question as "yes" (<a href = "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A"target = "_blank">Legal Information Institute</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/373" target = "_blank"> Rex Tillerson's Confirmation</a> or on the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.} </hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-05-01

gjopen

["http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/03/no-deal-donald", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/17/politics/house-obamacare-repeal-thursday/", "http://www.voanews.com/a/president-trump-own-party-hands-him-defeat/3781460.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/21/politics/President-Trump-Latest?lf-content=188682397:lb-post-0c704f051e58b09d28248d473f6179a7@livefyre.com&amp;hubRefSrc=permalink", "http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-health-care-bill-will-it-pass-the-whip-count/", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2017_schedule.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/us/politics/health-care-affordable-care-act.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=span-ab-top-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/ryan_favorableunfavorable-3468.html#polls", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/us/politics/health-care-affordable-care-act.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/24/politics/house-health-care-vote/", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-repeal-votes-congress-236459?cmpid=sf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/gop-health-care-plan-hangs-in-balance-as-house-leaders-push-for-thursday-floor-vote/2017/03/23/6e8bf05a-0fbd-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html?utm_term=.67feb6534cf9", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/23/politics/trump-health-care-latest/index.html", "http://www.businessinsider.com/quinnipiac-poll-shows-17-percent-of-american-support-trumpcare-ahca-2017-3", "http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-white-house-still-lacks-the-votes-on-1490291939-htmlstory.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/03/27/after-health-care-fiasco-trumps-next-move-may-be-even-more-disastrous/?utm_term=.30d9ed12a649", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-repeal-votes-senate-236417", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/us/politics/affordable-care-act-obamacare-health.html?_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-obamacare-brady-idUSKBN16R2F9", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/house/322903-the-hills-whip-list-where-republicans-stand-on-obamacare-repeal-plan", "https://www.radioiowa.com/2017/04/18/senator-grassley-not-confident-of-quick-obamacare-repeal-and-replacement/", "http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/obamacare-vote-paul-ryan-health-care-ahca-replacement-failure-trump-214947", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/22/us/politics/health-care-vote-republicans.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;clickSource=story-heading&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-gop-leaders-move-to-tweak-health-care-bill-1490048076"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-12-27

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/375

True

2017-11-01

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Zimbabwe in October 2017?

binary

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Violence against civilians or Remote violence; and 'FATALITIES' is greater than or equal to 1. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.  _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2017-11-07

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/584821", "http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/business/government-moves-ban-street-vending/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/582607", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709110121.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709180253.html", "https://www.newsday.co.zw/2017/10/skirmishes-municipal-riot-police-evict-vendors/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-20

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/615

True

2019-01-01

Will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries invert before 2019?

binary

<br> </br> For the past several years, the spread between yields on 2-year Treasuries and 10-year Treasuries has been closing (<a href = "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp"target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). When interest rates on longer term debt drop below rates on shorter term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which historically has been a bad omen for economic growth (<a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/watch-out-for-the-yield-curve.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). This question will resolve as "yes" if the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury shows the value in the "2 Yr" column exceeds that in the "10 Yr" column on any one day (<a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield"target="_blank">The U.S. Department of the Treasury</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-01-02

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-11-01

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1035

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/04/three-green-berets-killed-two-wounded-in-niger-ambush.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/627

True

2017-10-01

Before 1 April 2018, will India announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries?

binary

Building dams across the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers -- whose headwaters are controlled by India but whose downstream flow is allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Water Treaty -- could increase tensions between the two countries over water (<a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/30/why-the-india-pakistan-war-over-water-is-so-dangerous-indus-waters-treaty/"target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-pakistan-discuss-indus-waters-treaty-dispute-in-islamabad/story-H7gEYYTsDl4yPQh24NPDFP.html"target="_blank">Hindustan Times</a>, <a href = " http://www.newdelhitimes.com/india-should-sign-a-bakery-fresh-indus-water-treaty-with-pakistan123/"target="_blank">New Delhi Times</a>). <b>UPDATE:</b> GJ is looking into the specifications of the Ganderbal Project (<a href="http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/08/hindustan-construction-secures-epc-contract-for-india-s-93-mw-new-ganderbal-hydropower-plant.html" target="_blank">Hydroworld</a>, <a href="http://www.hccindia.com/news.php?news_id=96" target="_blank">HCC</a>) to confirm if all requirements of the forecasting question have or have not been met. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> India announced that it will begin new construction that dams part of the of the Chenab rivers. this question closed as “yes” with an end date of 1 October 2017 (<a href = "https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/work-on-jammu-and-kashmir-mega-hydel-project-to-start-in-2-months-official-1757369"target="_blank">NDTV</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-10-25

gjopen

["https://www.geo.tv/latest/134538-New-Delhi-fast-tracks-hydro-projects-in-Indian-occupied-Kashmir-reports", "http://news.statetimes.in/div-com-reviews-progress-of-hydroelectric-power-projects/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/india-hydropower-projects-indus-river-pakistan/3768491.html", "https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/work-on-jammu-and-kashmir-mega-hydel-project-to-start-in-2-months-official-1757369", "http://india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/wrpinfo/index.php?title=Narmada", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/sardar-sarovar-dam-and-development-highlights-of-pm-modis-address-in-dabhoi/articleshow/60718631.cms", "https://cvppindia.com/tendersoft/", "http://zeenews.india.com/india/indus-water-treaty-next-round-of-indo-pak-talks-at-world-bank-to-begin-today-2042175.html", "http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/08/hindustan-construction-secures-epc-contract-for-india-s-93-mw-new-ganderbal-hydropower-plant.html", "http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/09/stalemate-between-india-pakistan-continues-after-most-recent-round-of-indus-waters-treaty-discussions.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/05979e18-2fe4-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1358049", "https://cvppindia.com/projects.html", "http://irrigation.punjab.gov.in/OldVersion/", "http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/03/indus-water-commission-plans-to-meet-in-pakistan-as-india-resumes-work-on-shuttered-hydropower-project.html", "http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/385149-India-initiates-construction-of-100-megadams-in-b", "http://elibrary.law.psu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1166&amp;context=jlia", "http://www.voanews.com/a/india-hydropower-projects-indus-river-pakistan/3768491.html", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-us-conspiring-to-sabotage-indus-waters-treaty-pakistans-new-foreign-minister-khawaja-asif/articleshow/59951034.cms", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-himalayas-a-new-power-rises-water-1495013404?mod=e2fb", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/09/dutch-politicians-ready-form-government-election-coalition", "http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/jammu-kashmir/over-200-families-in-kishtwar-to-be-hit-by-kiru-kwar-hydel-projects/481311.html", "http://www.infraline.com/(S(q11bwlewqzxs0545ehewapmw))/power/hydro/Centre/Nhpc.aspx", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/16/india-fast-tracks-kashmir-hydro-projects-that-could-affect-pakistan-water-supplies", "http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indus-waters-pact-world-bank-says-india-can-construct-hydro-power-plants-1732449"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-04-11

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/465

True

2018-01-01

Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?

binary

For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>. Accusations of violations by both sides and escalating tensions between Russia and the US have generated concerns over the future of the INF treaty (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-28538387" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/europe/us-plans-to-counter-arms-breach-by-russia.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). In March 2015, Russia announced that it was withdrawing from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f6c814a6-c750-11e4-9e34-00144feab7de.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). _{Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/196" target="_blank">When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/209" target="_blank">What will happen to the European Union's sectoral sanctions against Russia, currently set to expire in July 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222" target="_blank">Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?</a>} Russia did not officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-01-03

gjopen

["https://news.usni.org/2017/09/26/report-russia-continues-use-nuclear-threats-intimidate-neighbors", "http://thebulletin.org/save-inf-treaty%E2%80%94-not-repeating-history11109", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia/russian-frigate-fires-cruise-missiles-at-islamic-state-targets-near-syrias-deir-al-zor-idUSKCN1BG16D", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail-deadly", "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/heres-why-us-special-forces-want-russian-machine-guns-20642", "https://www.dodbuzz.com/2017/08/23/lockheed-raytheon-new-nuclear-cruise-missile/", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-army-joins-forces-three-11133952", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-nuclear/russia-says-it-is-fully-committed-to-nuclear-missile-pact-idUSKBN1E30HZ", "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/are-russia-america-headed-missile-showdown-23152", "http://en.apa.az/world-news/america-news/us-set-to-restrict-russian-flights-over-us-violating-open-skies-treaty.html", "http://defense-update.com/20171231_russian_strategic_modernization.html", "http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13765/new-syria-missile-factories-look-a-lot-like-ones-in-iran", "https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201709151057439372-us-policy-violates-nuclear-treaty/", "http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2015/11/unmanned-underwater-nuclear-weapons.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-missiles-putin/putin-accuses-u-s-of-plotting-to-break-landmark-arms-control-pact-idUSKBN1EG1CG", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-reported-may-send-iskander-missiles-kanliningrad-us-armored-divisions-poland/28790998.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unrestricted_submarine_warfare", "https://sputniknews.com/military/201709141057396387-iskander-missile-system-russia-inf/", "http://www.dia.mil/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-militarys-ak-12-assault-rifle-passed-field-tests-2017-7", "http://inhomelandsecurity.com/navy-warships-get-new-heavy-missile-2500-lb-lrasm/", "http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2867341", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_warfare", "https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2284382-russian-missiles-from-crimea-may-reach-europe-and-middle-east.html", "http://tass.com/defense/962021"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-14

0.0

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["2018-01-01", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221

True

2016-10-17

Before 18 October 2016, will Iran's Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?

binary

This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. Though there has been movement towards restricting capital punishment (especially for nonviolent drug offenses), Iran's Guardian Council has not yet held a vote. (<a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-iran-death-penalty-20161006-snap-story.html" target="_blank">LA Times</a>) International pressure to end the death penalty for juvenile offenders has increased, and the Majles, Iran's parliament, is considering legislation which would remove mandatory death sentences for drug related offenses (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/11/world/middleeast/iran-executions-at-highest-level-since-89.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=53686#.Vyx1BzYZ5ps" target="_blank">UN</a>). The Guardian Council must approve legislation passed by the Majles. For more information on the Guardian Council's role in the legislative process see: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/iran_power/html/guardian_council.stm" target="_blank">BBC</a>. Legislation eliminating the death penalty for certain classes of offenders (e.g. juveniles, women) or certain offenses (e.g. drug related crimes) would count, as would legislation designed to reduce the use of the death penalty (e.g. removing mandatory sentencing or giving judges more discretion to use alternative punishments). For more information on the death penalty in Iran see: <a href="http://www.deathpenaltyworldwide.org/country-search-post.cfm?country=Iran&region=&method=#f3-1" target="_blank">Death Penalty Worldwide</a>. Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/161" target="_blank">Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198" target="_blank">Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016? </a>

2016-10-18

gjopen

["http://en.parliran.ir/", "http://www.france24.com/en/20161006-iran-death-penalty-bill-reduce-executions-rouhani", "https://majlismonitor.com/en/2016/03/analysis-2016-iranian-parliamentary-assembly-of-experts-election-results/", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/08/03/1147420/president-rouhani-raps-lack-of-commitment-to-jcpoa", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-drug-executions-larijani-un-ahmed-shaheed.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/284417", "https://www.iranhumanrights.org/2015/12/bill-to-end-death-penalty-for-drug-crimes/", "http://irannewsupdate.com/news/human-rights/2959-mass-execution-of-sunni-kurds-highlights-unchanged-attitudes-toward-death-penalty.html", "http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/03/iran-election-results-winner/472128/", "http://shaheedoniran.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/SR-Report-HRC31-March2016.pdf", "http://en.trend.az/iran/politics/2541350.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/12/iran-drug-offense-smuggling-execution-ban.html", "http://www.icana.ir/En/", "http://deathpenaltynews.blogspot.com.br/2016/05/iran-public-execution-in-kermanshah.html", "http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-iran-death-penalty-20161006-snap-story.html", "http://ncr-iran.org/en/news/human-rights/20717-iran-regime-hangs-18-people-over-the-weekend", "https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/news/73031/alex-salmond-helps-broker-moves-end-death-penalty-iran", "http://m.ibtimes.co.in/iran-has-executed-20-sunni-terrorists-various-crimes-monitor-688922", "http://irannewsupdate.com/news/human-rights/2961-iran-s-mass-execution-of-28-fires-outrage-as-situation-worsens.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/28/iran-under-pressure-abolish-death-penalty-drug-trafficking", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/25/world/iran-assembly-experts-ahmad-jannati.html", "http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/iran_power/html/expediency_council.stm", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=53686#.V17wsNQ8KrV", "http://deathpenaltynews.blogspot.ch/2016/07/iran-regime-hangs-nine-collectively.html?m=1", "http://qz.com/693031/iran-has-a-growing-drug-problem-and-young-well-educated-women-are-among-its-biggest-victims/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-07

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/217

True

2018-04-01

Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this. <hr> This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/21/turkey-starts-ground-incursion-into-kurdish-controlled-afrin-in-syria", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/middleeast/syria-kurds-assault-civilians-intl/index.html", "http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/090920161", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/nujaba-pmu-shiite-militias-us-iraq.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/19/turkey-begins-assault-kurdish-enclave-in-syria", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/turkey-operation-syria-afrin-key-players-180121060919195.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/eu-worried-about-erosion-of-rule-of-law-in-turkey/2018/02/02/a47d37b6-081c-11e8-aa61-f3391373867e_story.html?utm_term=.b84774b13051"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-12-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/828

True

2018-04-01

Before 1 April 2018, will General Motors test an autonomous vehicle in New York City?

binary

Cruise Automation, the self-driving unit of General Motors, <a href = "https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/17/16488330/gm-cruise-nyc-self-driving-car-test-cuomo"target="_blank">recently announced</a> its intention to test autonomous Chevy Bolts in New York City <a href = "https://dmv.ny.gov/dmv/apply-autonomous-vehicle-technology-demonstration-testing-permit"target="-blank">a high regulation</a>, <a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/17/technology/future/nyc-gm-autonomous-cars/index.html"target="_blank">high density</a> location. Tests conducted with backup drivers or engineers in the car will count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> General Motors did not test an autonomous vehicle in New York City. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 April 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-04-04

gjopen

["http://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-first-successful-autonomous-vehicle-demonstrations-new-york-state", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/waymo-robot-cars-need-little-human-help-as-gm-s-make-big-leap", "https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/17/16488330/gm-cruise-nyc-self-driving-car-test-cuomo", "https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-approval-first-application-autonomous-vehicle-demonstration-new-york", "https://www.popsci.com/self-driving-car-crashes-blame-game#page-2", "https://twitter.com/kvogt/status/920312043776778240", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saw_Mill_River_Parkway", "http://engineering.nyu.edu/press-releases/2018/02/05/c2smart-signs-agreement-next-future-transportation-cyberphysical-test-bed", "http://www.whec.com/news/self-driving-cars-is-rochester-ready/4774758/", "https://www.barrons.com/articles/gm-gets-back-in-the-fast-lane-1517624680", "https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-autonomous-vehicle-testing-begin-new-york-state", "http://www.thedrive.com/video/18524/watch-cadillacs-amazing-no-hands-super-cruise-in-action", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/679964", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;url=http://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/transportation/STLS_UC_Davis_Connected_Mobility_31646.pdf&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiH5a3ak57ZAhUGzFMKHaE8Ck8QFjAFegQIDRAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw33MZoS9fIXmpbvPiy1pjmm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-selfdriving-waymo/alphabet-looks-to-snowy-michigan-to-test-self-driving-cars-idUSKBN1CV1SN", "https://www.nysenate.gov/how-bill-becomes-law-1", "https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/955563835422687232", "http://observer.com/2018/02/senate-self-driving-car-legislation-safety-concerns/", "https://tribecacitizen.com/2018/02/26/self-driving-cars-are-coming-to-lower-manhattan/", "https://taas.technology/abstracts", "http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/detroit-auto-show/2018/01/17/gm-self-driving-fleet-car-debuts/109557490/", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2018/01/09/ford-ceo-hackett-talks-about-the-business-of-automated-driving-at-ces/amp/&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiH5a3ak57ZAhUGzFMKHaE8Ck8QFjAGegQIBxAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw3LzhiFA7viv8ANmiCY48tm&amp;ampcf=1", "http://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-cruise-automation-applying-begin-first-fully-autonomous-vehicle", "https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/846438598421336064", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/681390"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-17

0.0

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["2018-04-01", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.045]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/696

True

2017-11-10

Between 24 October 2017 and 1 February 2018, will Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia have their long-term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?

binary

Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bahrain-ratings-fitch-idUSKCN0ZE1SG"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/brief-moodys-downgrades-oman-to-baa-idUSFWN1KJ18G"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/oman-ratings-sp-idUSL8N1IE77N"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/qatar/s-p-downgrades-qatar-s-credit-rating-1.2040276"target="_blank">Gulf News</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-22/saudi-arabia-rating-cut-by-fitch-on-worsening-public-finances"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Long-term foreign currency and/or local currency issuer ratings will count. Revisions to outlook will not count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> S&P downgraded Oman's credit rating. This question closed as "a) Yes," with and end date of 10 November 2017. (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-12/oman-earmarks-100-million-rials-to-offset-fuel-subsidy-cut"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/s-p-cuts-oman-s-credit-rating-further-on-back-of-rising-debt-1.674877"target="_blank">The National</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-11-20

gjopen

["https://tradingeconomics.com/qatar/exports", "https://tradingeconomics.com/qatar/rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2017/11/07/Qatar-c-bank-s-foreign-reserves-liquidity-drop-in-September.html", "https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/DefaultResearch/2006800000445742.pdfx", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Oman-to-Baa2-outlook-negative--PR_369982&quot", "http://www.qatarprnetwork.com/PRprint.asp?pr=123892", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-watch.asp", "http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/gcc/publication/qatar-economic-outlook-october-2017", "https://theintercept.com/2017/11/09/uae-qatar-oitaba-rowland-banque-havilland-world-cup/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating", "https://standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/article/-/view/sourceId/504352", "https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/downgrade", "http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-richest-countries-in-the-world-2017-3/#30-japan-gdp-per-capita-38893-31732-1", "https://www.reuters.com/article/oman-ratings-sp/sp-downgrades-omans-ratings-idUSL3N1NG5XT", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-trading-cautious-on-middle-east-tensions-rising-u-s-drilling-activity-idUSKBN1DD023", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/97-before-the-end-of-2016-will-a-north-american-country-the-eu-or-an-eu-member-state-impose-sanctions-on-another-country-in-response-to-a-cyber-attack-or-cyber-espionage", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-10/dramatic-footage-bahrain-oil-pipeline-explodes-bursts-giant-flames", "http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.488.9725&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/252-before-18-october-2016-will-there-be-a-confrontation-involving-iran-s-and-another-country-s-national-military-forces-that-produces-at-least-one-fatality-in-the-persian-gulf-the-strait-of-hormuz-or-the-gulf-of-oman", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8459092/What-do-credit-ratings-mean.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/601975", "https://arxiv.org/pdf/0912.4621", "http://www.quadcapital.com/Rating%20Agency%20Credit%20Ratings.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-24

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/671

True

2017-12-29

Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Saudi Arabia announce it is increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel?

binary

Saudi Arabia continues to hint at a possible domestic fuel price increase in 2017, but has not yet made a change (<a href = "https://uk.reuters.com/article/mideast-stocks/mideast-stocks-gulf-moves-little-strong-oil-fails-to-boost-saudi-petchems-idUKL8N1N71FG"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Raising the price of any octane level will count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Saudi Arabia did not announce between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 it was increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-04

gjopen

["http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-12-20/Saudi-Arabia-slows-phasing-out-energy-subsidies-under-new-long-term-budget-plan.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/key-figures-in-saudi-arabia-s-2018-budget-2017-fiscal-data", "http://www.spa.gov.sa/viewstory.php?lang=en&amp;newsid=1704324", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1217631/business-economy", "https://www.gazt.gov.sa/en/value-added-tax-vat", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637763", "https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-finances/update-1-saudi-arabia-to-push-back-balanced-budget-goal-to-2023-sources-say-idUSL8N1N84M7", "http://www.eyeofriyadh.com/news/details/schneider-electric-renews-mou-with-national-grid-saudi-arabia-to-increase-electricity-reliability", "http://www.eyeofriyadh.com/news/category/environment-energy", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-energy-prices/saudi-arabia-to-raise-energy-prices-pay-cash-to-poorer-citizens-idUSKBN1E62GY", "http://www.meim.gov.sa/arabic/mediacenter/press-releases/Pages/default.aspx", "http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/article/524490/SAUDI-ARABIA/SR978-billion-budget-unveiled", "http://www.spa.gov.sa/viewstory.php?lang=en&amp;newsid=1700594", "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/01/saudi-arabia-hikes-gasoline-prices.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/saudis-are-said-to-plan-80-gasoline-price-increase-in-january", "https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;ved=0ahUKEwiHrcK3hqvYAhVF2qQKHa8JAWMQFggpMAA&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesis.eur.nl%2Fpub%2F14962%2FDijkstra-J.pdf&amp;usg=AOvVaw0uMgxKBKnyXmglhBueO2LA", "http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/525180/SAUDI-ARABIA/Saudi-Arabia-hikes-fuel-price", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/saudi-arabia-slows-pace-of-energy-subsidy-cuts-to-boost-economy", "http://www.eyeofriyadh.com/news/index.php?cat=environment-energy&amp;page=2&amp;ipp=10", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1217656/saudi-arabia", "https://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-stocks/mideast-stocks-saudi-shares-fall-after-gasoline-price-hike-idUSL8N1OW0C8", "https://www.rt.com/business/327283-saudi-arabia-increase-gasoline/", "https://www.thenational.ae/business/saudi-arabia-raises-fuel-price-66-per-cent-amid-big-subsidy-shake-up-1.107206", "http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/article/524053/BUSINESS/Gasoline-prices-to-be-reviewed-in-first-quarter-of-2018", "https://www.mof.gov.sa/en/budget/Documents/171228%20%20budget%20Statement%20eng%20Single.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-29

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/802

True

2016-12-31

In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?

binary

Question will be resolved using the IMF's World Economic Outlook database, which releases reports in April and October (<a href = "http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28" target = "_blank">IMF</a>). The relevant indicators are the percent change in GDP using constant prices and the percent change in inflation using average consumer prices. The April 2016 data can be seen <a href = "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2014&ey=2021&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=59&pr1.y=7&c=156%2C158%2C132%2C112%2C134%2C111%2C136&s=NGDP_RPCH%2CPCPIPCH&grp=0&a=" target = "_blank">here</a>. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will close when the April 2017 report is released. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/89-how-will-iran-rank-in-the-world-economic-forum-s-2016-2017-global-competitiveness-index" target = "_blank">How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016" target = "_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162-will-venezuela-or-its-state-owned-oil-company-petroleos-de-venezuela-sa-pdvsa-default-on-any-of-its-foreign-debt-before-1-february-2017" target = "_blank">Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?</a> <hr> This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. None of the G7 countries experienced GDP growth of more than 2.5% or inflation greater than 2% (<a href = "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2015&ey=2022&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=47&pr1.y=10&c=156%2C158%2C132%2C112%2C134%2C111%2C136&s=NGDP_RPCH%2CPCPIPCH&grp=0&a="target="_blank">IMF</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-04-20

gjopen

["https://www.ft.com/content/f86a3c6c-9c60-11e6-a6e4-8b8e77dd083a", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/12/tesco-running-low-key-unilever-brands-price-row-supplier-supermarket-falling-pound", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38300919", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/u-k-inflation-rate-surges-to-highest-in-almost-two-years", "http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21709015-not-first-time-relatively-poor-households-who-tended-vote-leave-will-suffer?frsc=dg%7Cc", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37799235", "http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/28/brexit-apple-mac-customers-prices-rise-us-dollar-pound-sterling", "http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/macroessays/does-devaluation-cause-inflation/", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi", "https://www.ft.com/content/511f43d1-315a-3a11-94c7-f5b141930c31", "https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-forecast.htm", "http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2016/tech3q16_2nd.htm", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/29/business/economy/us-economy-grew-at-3-2-rate-in-3rd-quarter.html", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/28/news/economy/us-economic-growth-gdp-third-quarter/", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/04/britain-fastest-growing-g7-economy-imf-international-monetary-fund-brexit-vote", "http://news.sky.com/story/morrisons-hikes-price-of-marmite-weeks-after-tesco-price-row-with-unilever-10635718", "https://knoema.com/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/28/british-airways-parent-iag-cuts-profit-outlook-in-tough-environm/", "http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/economy-to-defy-brexit-fears-dgz3k9rf9", "http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/jump-in-us-gdp-boosts-case-for-rate-rise-this-year-73g5vxk76", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/29/us-q3-gross-domestic-product.html", "https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2016/10/04/IMF-Cuts-Global-Growth-Projections-Amid-Woes-in-Advanced-Economies.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-04-19

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183

True

2016-07-01

Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?

binary

This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Iran rejected the oil output cap discussed by OPEC at its last meeting earlier this month and has only ramped up its exports (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/02/iran-rejects-oil-output-cap-as-opec-leaders-meet-in-vienna" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-prices-in-europe-as-iran-ramps-up-exports-1465165449" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). Agreeing to cap oil output as part of a larger OPEC agreement on output would suffice. Talks continue on the widening of an agreement to freeze output at January levels struck by OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar plus non-member Russia last month; some observers believe Iran must commit to capping or cutting its own production for the agreement to hold (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-meeting-idUSKCN0WC1U2" target = "_blank">Reuters 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/17/investing/oil-freeze-saudi-russia-iran/" target = "_blank">, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil-iran-idUSKCN0VQ17P" target = "_blank">Reuters 2</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/29621c84-d562-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/51-will-any-disputes-over-iaea-access-to-iranian-sites-be-referred-to-the-joint-commission-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/136-will-bahrain-qatar-or-the-uae-return-an-ambassador-to-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/146-will-the-closing-spot-price-for-a-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil-dip-below-20-00-before-1-may-2016" target = "_blank">Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?</a>

2016-07-05

gjopen

["https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/02/iran-rejects-oil-output-cap-as-opec-leaders-meet-in-vienna", "https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/02/investing/opec-oil-decision-saudi-arabia-iran/", "http://www.investing.com/analysis/don%E2%80%99t-wait-on-iran-for-an-oil-production-freeze-200128671", "http://www.unian.info/economics/1352775-reuters-iran-has-no-plans-to-freeze-oil-exports.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/gitrep-11may16pm/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-iran-idUSKCN0YD0UJ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-exclusive-idUSKCN0VE21S", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/311.htm", "http://m.gulf-times.com/Story/493471", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/Iran-undercuts-Saudi-Arabia-again-in-oil-share-battle", "http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-says-will-reclaim-full-oil-market-share-post-sanctions-29706", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/iranian-oil-exports-near-four-year-high", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/05/29/468002/Russia-says-oil-freeze-plan-lost-relevance", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/05/12/465205/Iran-Hajj-Saudi-Arabia-Jannati", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-12/iran-oil-output-rose-to-pre-sanctions-levels-in-april-iea-says-io408r1c", "http://tribune.com.pk/story/1110289/iran-saudi-row-threatens-opec-deal-puts-role-question/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/05/09/464762/Iran-again-rejects-joining-oil-freeze-plan/", "http://qz.com/682945/iran-has-ramped-its-oil-production-back-up-sooner-than-anyone-was-expecting/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/opecs-ability-to-influence-oil-supply-is-slipping-1464089971", "http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YD0UJ", "http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iran-wants-to-return-its-pre-sanctions-share-of-14-5-in-opec"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-03-15

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/161

True

2015-10-08

Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?

binary

The question will use any of the categories listed on the best sellers website, www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books , and the corresponding links for these categories. For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link.

2015-10-09

gjopen

["http://www.novelrank.com/asin/0804136696", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/the-power-of-precise-predictions.html", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/0307408868", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feiler_Faster_Thesis", "http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=zg_bs_unv_b_1_2689_3", "http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Books-Business-Money/zgbs/books/3/ref=zg_bs_nav_b_1_b", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2013-04-20/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2015-10-18/e-book-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/1594206279", "http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/books/1364796/whats-best-predict-future/", "http://www.amazon.com/Unlikeable-Problem-Hillary-Edward-Klein-ebook/dp/B011H5178A/ref=zg_bs_157325011_43", "http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Kindle-Store-Nonfiction/zgbs/digital-text/157325011#4", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2015-10-18/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/08/us-mideast-crisis-intelligence-exclusive-idUSKCN0S20CZ20151008", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/my-voting-record-on-will-the-book-superforecasting-2015-be-on-the-new-york-times-bestsellers-list-by-the-end-of-october/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trick-to-making-better-forecasts-1443235983", "http://www.talkingelectronics.com/projects/5-Projects/images/The-flip-flop-in-action-complete.gif", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/advice-how-to-and-miscellaneous/list.html?pagewanted=print", "http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21666098-forecasting-talent-luckily-it-can-be-learned-unclouded-vision", "http://www.amazon.com/Where-Am-Heaven-Eternity-Beyond/dp/0718042220/ref=zg_bsnr_books_44", "http://seekingalpha.com/article/3535796-tetlock-and-gardner-superforecasting", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/1451606303", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2015-10-11/hardcover-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=pd_dp_ts_b_1", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-01

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/16

True

2018-01-01

Will Mahmoud Abbas visit Gaza before 1 January 2018?

binary

On 12 October 2017, Hamas and Fatah signed a unity agreement which outlined terms for Hamas to transfer control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/middleeast/hamas-fatah-agreement/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/world/middleeast/palestinians-fatah-hamas-gaza.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah made a visit to Gaza in advance of the deal (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/pa-prime-minister-rami-hamdallah-arrive-gaza-171002073029755.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Mahmoud Abbas did not visit Gaza. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-04

gjopen

["http://www.cia.com/", "https://www.geo.tv/latest/171252-us-vice-president-pence-unwelcome-in-palestine-fatah-official", "http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/06/world/meast/mideast-hamas-support/index.html", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/palestine-reconciliation-abbas-visit-gaza-hamas-fatah.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42265337", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/621378", "https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/world/middleeast/palestinians-fatah-hamas-gaza.html?referer=https://www.google.com/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/afp/2017/10/israel-palestinians-conflict-politics-gaza-abbas.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/palestinian-factions-agree-elections-2018-171123055951413.html", "https://apnews.com/0225bc96851d46f2861a8da069b7b1db", "https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/161511-171129-fatah-says-hamas-not-committed-to-unity-deal-ahead-of-key-deadline", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/fatah-disarmament-hamas-dialogue-table-171127202933064.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma%27an_News_Agency", "https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/238398", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-reconciliation-rafah/egypt-gaza-border-opens-under-pa-control-for-first-time-in-a-decade-idUSKBN1DI0C9", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/opinion/ehud-barak-israel-netanyahu.html", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-5127543/Hamass-weapons-block-path-Palestinian-unity.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-reconciliation/palestinian-prime-minister-visits-gaza-in-move-to-reconcile-with-hamas-idUSKCN1C710M", "http://president.ps/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/hopes-for-palestinian-unity-delayed", "https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/.premium-1.824254?v=D26D8456536B8E44AA1D74990AC08A98", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/614724", "https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/11/6/abbas-in-impromptu-visit-to-meet-saudi-crown-prince", "https://www.maannews.com/Content.aspx?id=779506", "http://m.dw.com/en/rival-palestinian-parties-fatah-and-hamas-agree-to-hold-elections-by-end-of-2018/a-41492435"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-11-08

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/685

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-idUKKBN1733PN", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-dead-erdogan-military-chief-ankara-istanbul-death-toll-plotters-how-many-killed-wounded-a7140376.html", "http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly-7000-civilians-killed-by-pkk-in-31-years-2237092"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/455

True

2018-01-01

Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?

binary

For more information on the New START Treaty see: <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/index.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>. Escalating tensions between Russia and the US have generated concerns over the future of the New Start treaty (<a href="http://time.com/4280169/russia-nuclear-security-summit/" target="_blank">TIME</a>). In March 2015, Russia announced that it was withdrawing from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f6c814a6-c750-11e4-9e34-00144feab7de.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). _{Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/196" target="_blank">When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/209" target="_blank">What will happen to the European Union's sectoral sanctions against Russia, currently set to expire in July 2016?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221" target="_blank">Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?</a>} <hr> Russia did not officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-01-03

gjopen

["https://www.rt.com/news/404678-russia-ballistic-missile-test/", "http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/a-controversial-option-that-may-work-in-north-korea-1048852035776", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-bombers-fly-over-korean-peninsula-as-us-conducts-exercises-2017-8", "https://shape.nato.int/news-archive/2017/exercise-ample-strike-takes-place-for-4th-consecutive-year", "http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/09/russians-just-test-fired-icbm/141163/?oref=d-river&amp;utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=DFN%20DNR%209.21.17&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2017-11/news/putin-slams-us-nonproliferation-deals", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html?mcubz=3", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/russia-tests-topol-m-intercontinental-ballistic-missile/", "http://www.4freerussia.org/", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/13/c_136606142.htm", "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-russia-fraying-ties-erode-arms-control/28611015.html", "https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2017/10/russia-close-fulfill-new-start-treaty", "https://fas.org/irp/cia/product/style.pdf", "https://www.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/274550.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-nuclear/russia-says-it-is-fully-committed-to-nuclear-missile-pact-idUSKBN1E30HZ", "http://www.shape.nato.int/", "http://thehill.com/policy/defense/359709-defense-bill-would-not-limit-extension-of-arms-treaty-with-russia", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plans-huge-zapad-2017-military-exercises-belarus-n788741", "https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/", "https://kitup.military.com/2017/09/m3e1.html", "http://scout.com/military/warrior/Article/The-Russian-Militarys-Greatest-Enemy-And-Its-Not-America-107135992", "https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2017/09/23/zapad-watch-summary-of-post-exercise-exercises-the-zapad-hangover/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle", "http://defense-update.com/20171231_inf.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-games-kiev-us-weapons-request-putin-a7949591.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-06-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Phillipines from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as Yes (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

["http://www.philippinesnews.net/news/253433511/philippines-air-strikes-accidentally-kill-a-dozen-of-its-own-soldiers-instead-of-terrorists", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/30/asia/philippines-marawi-isis-hapilon/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38793008", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/dutertes-war-on-drugs-in-the-philippines-by-the-numbers/", "http://www.start.umd.edu/start/announcements/announcement.asp?id=609", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-05-30/philippines-lawmakers-want-debate-on-martial-law-amid-siege", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-militants-foreigners-idUSKBN18Q0OO", "http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/902418/marawi-evacuees-reach-Cebu", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-drugs-idUSKBN16H1YV", "http://www.particlenews.com/n/07aXGXnt/Philippines%20Becomes%20Hotbed%20For%20ISIS%20Activity%20As%20Foreign%20Jihadis%20Join%20The%20Fight?s=home", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/18/duterte-has-a-name-for-innocent-people-killed-in-the-philippines-drug-war-collateral-damage/?utm_term=.f31d697854ed", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2016/09/04/philippine-president-muslim-terrorist-group-ready-for-bitter-fight-to-the-finish/#499aa83353b6", "http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/902389/dozens-flee-terrorists-in-war-torn-marawi", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/05/rodrigo-dutertes-drug-war-in-the-philippines-is-out-of-control-he-needs-to-be-stopped?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism", "https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/testimony/the-terrorist-threat-confronting-the-united-states", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/dutertes-war-on-terror-also-looks-like-a-war-on-civilians/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_Philippines"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/459

True

2017-01-20

Will the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program be implemented prior to inauguration day?

binary

This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 20 January 2017. Since Judge Andrew S. Hanen issued a preliminary injunction on 22 June that blocked the implementation of the expanded Deferred Action, the Supreme Court tie at 4-4 has prevented it from being implemented. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Will the 4-4 Supreme Court allow Obama’s deferred action immigration policy to be implemented? The United States Supreme Court is reviewing President Obama's Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program, and is expected to rule on the case in June 2016 (<a href="http://www.cfr.org/immigration/us-supreme-court-obamas-immigration-actions/p37630" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/united-states-v-texas/" target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/18/politics/supreme-court-immigration-executive-actions-texas/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Implementation of the program, which provides deportation relief and work visas for parents of US citizens and lawful residents, was suspended after a Texas Court issued a temporary injunction (<a href="https://www.ice.gov/daca" target="_blank">U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/us/obama-immigration-policy-halted-by-federal-judge-in-texas.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/26/politics/obama-immigration-texas-federal-appeals-court/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Inauguration day is 20 January 2017. Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/150" target="_blank">Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/124" target="_blank">Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106" target="_blank">Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?</a>

2017-01-20

gjopen

["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195-will-the-deferred-action-for-parents-of-americans-and-lawful-permanent-residents-dapa-program-be-implemented-prior-to-inauguration-day/www.nilc.org/issues/immigration-reform-and-executive-actions/united-states-v-state-of-texas/supreme-courts-tie-vote-means-dapa-daca/", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2016/02/tie-votes-will-lead-to-reargument-not-affirmance/", "http://www.nilc.org/issues/immigration-reform-and-executive-actions/united-states-v-state-of-texas/supreme-courts-tie-vote-means-dapa-daca/", "https://www.numbersusa.com/news/obama-admin-petitions-supreme-court-rehear-amnesty-case", "https://thinkprogress.org/republicans-were-fine-with-bush-acting-on-immigration-reform-without-congress-ae2ae00d2130#.4lg27oczz", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/Search.aspx?FileName=/docketfiles/15-674.htm", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ednq_vKPdQE", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/08/25/lawsuit_on_obama_immigration_executive_actions_could_restore_deferred_deportation.html", "https://reaganlibrary.archives.gov/archives/speeches/1984/102184b.htm", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/immigration", "https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/06/23/statement-secretary-johnson-todays-supreme-court-decision", "http://www.cfr.org/immigration/us-supreme-court-obamas-immigration-actions/p37630", "http://www.utne.com/politics/ices-secret-prisons-in-suburbia.aspx", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deferred_Action_for_Parents_of_Americans", "http://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/288220-doj-asks-supreme-court-to-rehear-immigration-case", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/15pdf/15-674_jhlo.pdf", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axN-hs4slpY", "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/15-674-Petition-for-Rehearing.pdf", "https://www.nilc.org/2016/08/25/ny-dreamer-challenges-injunction/", "https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/17/316", "https://www.nilc.org/2016/07/18/nilc-applauds-justice-department-request-rehearing-u-s-v-texas/", "http://www.coha.org/how-us-private-prisons-profit-from-immigrant-detention/", "http://www.law.uci.edu/lawreview/vol4/no1/Coutin.pdf", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/us/supreme-court-immigration-obama-dapa.html?_r=0", "http://pubrecord.org/nation/8671/ignores-health-immigration-detainees/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-06

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195

True

2015-12-31

Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?

binary

The Bank of Japan may expand its quantitative easing program in an effort to stimulate the economy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/qe-back-in-focus-turns-rally-of-euro-and-yen-into-two-day-wonder , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-15/yen-pares-loss-as-bank-of-japan-refrains-from-adding-to-stimulus ). For more information on quantitative easing see: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/22/quantitative-easing-around-the-world-lessons-from-japan-uk-and-us , http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-5 .

2016-01-04

gjopen

["http://www.businessinsider.com.au/stocks-in-tokyo-are-under-pressure-after-the-bank-of-japan-surprised-markets-with-an-easing-today-2015-12", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/18/confusion-over-bank-of-japan-move-pressures-markets-live", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/what-the-worlds-central-banks-are-doing-at-a-glance/2015/12/16/09d43ca2-a430-11e5-8318-bd8caed8c588_story.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/22/reuters-america-update-1-japan-govt-targets-growth-fiscal-reform-in-record-budget-spending-plan.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/boj-keeps-stimulus-unchanged-makes-adjustments-to-jgbs-etfs", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN0U034920151218", "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k151218a.pdf", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-japan-announces-extra-easing-measures-2015-12-18", "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/index.htm/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-december-18-2015-2015-12", "http://news.markets/bonds/bank-japan-surprises-markets-modest-increase-stimulus-7039/", "http://www.economist.com/news/finance-economics/21684516-central-bank-joins-effort-get-japanese-companies-spend-their-cash", "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k151119a.pdf", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-20/the-bank-of-japan-s-2-5-billion-plan-to-buy-non-existent-etfs", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wild-ride-for-dollar-after-bank-of-japans-surprise-easing-move-2015-12-18", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0f3dd81a-a53e-11e5-97e1-a754d5d9538c.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/boj-is-done-boosting-stimulus-in-view-of-half-of-economists", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/early-christmas-gift-accidental-clustering/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japan-takes-fresh-action-1450412916", "http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Gp9HP1pbS-sJ:www.ft.com/fastft/2015/12/17/boj-to-get-through-2015-without-touching-policy/+&amp;cd=7&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=us", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/12/18/business/economy-business/boj-keeps-stimulus-unchanged-makes-adjustments-jgb-etf-purchases/#.VnQBEfkrLIV", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/boj-increases-purchases-of-etfs-nikkei-climbs-yen-drops.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/boj-unveils-2-5-billion-etf-boost-to-offset-planned-stock-sales", "http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/index.htm/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-28

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/50

True

2017-08-01

Will China officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017?

binary

After the International Court of Arbitration ruled against China's territorial claims in a landmark case in June 2016, China stated that it has a right to set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://news.usni.org/2016/07/18/analysis-can-china-enforce-south-china-sea-air-defense-identification-zone"target="_blank">US Naval Institute</a>). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defence identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/china-ponders-adiz-in-disputed-sea/3617133.html"target="_blank">VOA</a>, <a href = "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-could-declare-south-china-sea-adiz-right-about-now-19273"target="_blank">National Interest</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26cf55ce-58da-11e3-a7cb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz4JgSL07aA"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2013-12-09/whats-adiz"target="_blank">Foreign Affairs</a>. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> China did not declare an ADIZ over any part of the South China Sea. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 1 Aug 2017. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2017-08-03

gjopen

["http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/us-protests-intercept-by-chinese-jets-china-blames-us", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/china-outraged-by-planned-1-point-42-billion-us-arms-sales-to-taiwan.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/asia/south-china-sea-us-navy-warship-spratly-islands.html?_r=0", "http://www.janes.com/images/assets/148/70148/A_great_leap_forward_edit.pdf", "http://www.firstpost.com/india/amid-sikkim-standoff-chinas-submarine-prowls-indian-ocean-is-it-part-of-larger-strategy-on-border-dispute-3774785.html", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/05/20/asia-pacific/china-deploys-surface-air-missiles-hainan-island-bid-create-south-china-sea-no-fly-zone-report/#.WSev9RPyt8c", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-idUSKBN19S0IU?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-thaad-russia-idUSKBN19O0N8", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/01/trump-global-trade-war-steel-aluminum-imports", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/the-calm-before-the-storm-the-future-of-the-south-china-sea-dispute/", "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-sent-monster-ship-roam-the-south-china-sea-20608", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39971267", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/05/13/521739/AWACS-aircraft-South-China-Sea", "https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF?ver=2017-06-06-141328-770", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/no-fly-zone-in-south-china-sea-a-fabrication-china-4673651/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2097215/pentagon-cites-pla-naval-base-djibouti-part-beijings", "http://rips.or.jp/Policy_Perspectives/Policy%20Perpsectives%20No25_Restless%20Rivals_2017.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/recent-developments-surrounding-the-south-china-sea/2017/07/03/356622ac-5fc0-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html?utm_term=.b0fea950b04b", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-vietnam-idUSKCN18B0HK", "https://qz.com/990701/north-korea-is-helping-china-in-the-south-china-sea-whether-it-knows-it-or-not/", "http://breakingdefense.com/2017/06/indispensable-palau-deal-at-risk-will-china-get-access/", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/29/asia/south-china-sea-underwater-observation-system/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-military-idUSKBN18X2W8", "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-scrambles-fighter-jets-over-chinese-vessel-1.3140941", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/02/politics/us-navy-south-china-sea/index.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/436

True

2016-09-30

Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

binary

This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30 2016. An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26cf55ce-58da-11e3-a7cb-00144feabdc0.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bd40ff7a-0447-11e5-a5c3-00144feabdc0.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times 2</a>, <a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/04/should-beijing-establish-an-air-defense-identification-zone-over-the-south-china-sea/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/content/experts-concerned-china-may-soon-establish-southern-adiz/2882795.html" target = "_blank">Voice of America</a>. Recommended Questions <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-in-the-south-or-east-china-sea-region-involving-china-s-and-another-country-s-national-military-forces-or-law-enforcement-personnel-before-1-january-2017" target = "_blank">Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/86-will-china-conduct-naval-exercises-with-any-asean-member-before-1-june-2016" target = "_blank">Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016" target = "_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a>

2016-10-04

gjopen

["http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21701793-plans-rein-credit-slowly-take-shape-coming-clean", "https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-09-13/asia-s-junk-bond-rally-rests-on-a-chinese-house-of-cards", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a22861/chinas-air-forces-announce-regular-patrols-into-the-west-pacific/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-russia-idUSKCN11H051?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/FirstFTAsia/product", "http://www.policyforum.net/can-china-disarm-japans-moves-south-china-sea/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-russia-stage-military-drills-china-sea-031204485.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-idUSKCN11Y1ZI?il=0", "http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-air-force-holds-drills-in-western-pacific-for-second-time-this-month-2016-9?r=UK&amp;IR=T", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/439cd7d6-e175-3602-8322-f892c134f0d2/china-and-russia-are.html", "http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/07/japan-distributing-ships-aircraft-in-prep-for-future-showdown-with-china/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/china-formed-second-navy-south-china-sea-2016-9", "http://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-south-china-sea/3531442.html", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/japan-to-boost-south-china-sea-role-with-training-patrols-with-us-minister/ar-BBwcifQ?li=BBmkt5R", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-bombers-send-china-russia-north-korea-message-n647616", "http://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-scrambles-jets-china-makes-025813597.html", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/air-force-secretary-china-pursuing-militarization-south-china-sea/", "http://www.stripes.com/news/japan-scrambles-jets-after-chinese-planes-fly-over-miyako-strait-1.431096", "https://news.usni.org/2016/09/22/experts-advocate-harder-stance-against-illegal-claims-in-south-china-sea", "http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/09/08/asean-china-rebuild-trust-confidence-region.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/pacific-shoals-of-trouble-1473203623", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-12/china-s-infrastructure-planners-are-on-a-road-to-nowhere", "http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/electronic-warfare-south-china-sea/", "https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-urges-calm-north-korea-061054029.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/u-s-bombers-train-with-japan-south-korea-after-nuclear-test", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-challenges-chinas-100-bn-rice-cereal-subsidies-160011658.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-14

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/34

True

2018-01-01

Will Apple's end-of-day market capitalization exceed $1 trillion before 1 January 2018?

binary

Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure reported by Bloomberg (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>) _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Recommended Questions: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act"target="_blank">Before 1 January 2018, will the FCC cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/480-before-1-january-2018-will-it-be-announced-that-twitter-inc-is-being-acquired"target="_blank">Before 1 January 2018, will it be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired?</a> <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/427-before-1-january-2018-will-the-european-commission-find-google-liable-in-an-antitrust-case"target="_blank">Before 1 January 2018, will the European Commission find Google liable in an antitrust case?</a> <hr> Apple’s end-of-day market capitialization did not exceed $1 trillion. This question closed as “no” with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-01-28

gjopen

["https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/how-apples-market-cap-could-reach-1-trillion.html", "https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/19/technology/farhads-and-mikes-week-in-tech-apples-big-media-bet-and-more-uber-drama.html?emc=edit_th_20170820&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nlid=77825025", "https://www.google.com.au/search?client=ubuntu&amp;channel=fs&amp;q=Apple%27s+end-of-day+market+capitalization&amp;ie=utf-8&amp;oe=utf-8&amp;gfe_rd=cr&amp;dcr=0&amp;ei=I6YwWuXxNejc8wfkk474Cw", "http://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=aapl", "http://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/", "https://twitter.com/svrf/status/879712735759659009/video/1", "http://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/pe-ratio/apple-inc-pe-ratiohistory", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/technology/apple-iphone-event.html?emc=edit_th_20170913&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nlid=77825025", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/apple-said-to-sell-debt-to-help-fund-300-billion-capital-return", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-stocks/apple-market-value-we-may-need-a-bigger-chart-idUSKBN1D20BQ?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=US%20Reuters%20News%20Now%202017-11-02&amp;utm_term=US%20Reuters%20News%20Now", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-hits-high-score-as-videogame-makers-rally-idUSKBN1D81M8", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-stocks/apple-market-value-we-may-need-a-bigger-chart-idUSKBN1D20BQ", "https://www.investopedia.com/news/why-apple-could-reach-1-trillion-next-year/?utm_campaign=quote-bloomberg&amp;utm_source=bloomberg&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_term=fb-capture&amp;utm_content=/#ec%7Crss-bloomberg", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_mobile_phones_in_use", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42237312", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2017/11/04/initial-iphone-8-and-x-orders-outselling-the-iphone-6/#31b89724add0", "http://fortune.com/2017/10/31/trump-tax-reform-apple-multinational-companies/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/ex-facebook-president-sean-parker-social-network-human-vulnerability-2017-11", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#US_QE1.2C_QE2.2C_and_QE3", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/13/companies-have-big-plans-foroverseas-cash--if-tax-reform-ever-happens.html", "http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl", "http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/apple-predictions-2017-3510027/", "https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/AAPL.OQ", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/01/apple-hits-an-all-time-high-and-is-seemingly-in-striking-distance-of-being-a-1-trillion-company/"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-06-16

0.0

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["2017-10-09", 0.02], ["2017-10-09", 0.02], ["2017-10-11", 0.02], ["2017-10-11", 0.02], ["2017-10-13", 0.02], ["2017-10-13", 0.02], ["2017-10-14", 0.02], ["2017-10-14", 0.01], ["2017-10-15", 0.01], ["2017-10-16", 0.01], ["2017-10-17", 0.01], ["2017-10-18", 0.01], ["2017-10-19", 0.01], ["2017-10-20", 0.01], ["2017-10-22", 0.01], ["2017-10-23", 0.01], ["2017-10-23", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-28", 0.01], ["2017-10-28", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-02", 0.01], ["2017-11-02", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-04", 0.01], ["2017-11-04", 0.02], ["2017-11-04", 0.02], ["2017-11-04", 0.03], ["2017-11-05", 0.03], ["2017-11-06", 0.03], ["2017-11-07", 0.03], ["2017-11-07", 0.03], ["2017-11-07", 0.03], ["2017-11-08", 0.03], ["2017-11-09", 0.03], ["2017-11-09", 0.03], ["2017-11-09", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-11", 0.035], ["2017-11-12", 0.04], ["2017-11-13", 0.035], ["2017-11-14", 0.04], ["2017-11-15", 0.035], ["2017-11-15", 0.035], ["2017-11-16", 0.04], ["2017-11-16", 0.03], ["2017-11-16", 0.03], ["2017-11-16", 0.03], ["2017-11-17", 0.03], ["2017-11-18", 0.03], ["2017-11-19", 0.03], ["2017-11-20", 0.03], ["2017-11-20", 0.03], ["2017-11-20", 0.03], ["2017-11-21", 0.03], ["2017-11-21", 0.025], ["2017-11-21", 0.03], ["2017-11-22", 0.025], ["2017-11-22", 0.025], ["2017-11-22", 0.02], ["2017-11-23", 0.02], ["2017-11-23", 0.02], ["2017-11-24", 0.02], ["2017-11-25", 0.02], ["2017-11-26", 0.02], ["2017-11-27", 0.02], ["2017-11-27", 0.02], ["2017-11-27", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.025], ["2017-12-03", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-11", 0.01], ["2017-12-12", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-14", 0.015], ["2017-12-14", 0.015], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-17", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/502

True

2018-07-01

Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-05-20

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-02

0.0

[["2018-04-02", 0.55], ["2018-04-02", 0.2], ["2018-04-03", 0.11], ["2018-04-03", 0.235], ["2018-04-03", 0.185], ["2018-04-03", 0.395], ["2018-04-03", 0.225], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-05", 0.015], ["2018-04-06", 0.055], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-08", 0.015], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-10", 0.06], ["2018-04-10", 0.07], ["2018-04-11", 0.07], ["2018-04-11", 0.07], ["2018-04-12", 0.085], ["2018-04-15", 0.12], ["2018-04-15", 0.085], ["2018-04-16", 0.07], ["2018-04-16", 0.07], ["2018-04-16", 0.07], ["2018-04-19", 0.06], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.04], ["2018-04-25", 0.04], ["2018-04-25", 0.04], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-05-01", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.04], ["2018-05-03", 0.04], ["2018-05-03", 0.04], ["2018-05-07", 0.025], ["2018-05-09", 0.04], ["2018-05-10", 0.04], ["2018-05-11", 0.03], ["2018-05-12", 0.03], ["2018-05-13", 0.03], ["2018-05-14", 0.03], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-17", 0.05], ["2018-05-19", 0.05], ["2018-05-21", 0.05], ["2018-05-22", 0.05], ["2018-05-22", 0.04], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-28", 0.03], ["2018-05-30", 0.05], ["2018-05-30", 0.05], ["2018-05-31", 0.05], ["2018-06-01", 0.05], ["2018-06-02", 0.05], ["2018-06-02", 0.055], ["2018-06-04", 0.055], ["2018-06-08", 0.055], ["2018-06-11", 0.055], ["2018-06-12", 0.05], ["2018-06-13", 0.05], ["2018-06-14", 0.05], ["2018-06-14", 0.055], ["2018-06-15", 0.055], ["2018-06-16", 0.055], ["2018-06-16", 0.055], ["2018-06-17", 0.055], ["2018-06-18", 0.05], ["2018-06-20", 0.05], ["2018-06-22", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-24", 0.05], ["2018-06-24", 0.05], ["2018-06-26", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.055], ["2018-06-27", 0.06], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.07], ["2018-06-28", 0.055], ["2018-06-29", 0.055], ["2018-06-29", 0.055], ["2018-07-01", 0.055]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/917

True

2018-01-01

Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See <a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a> for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ’s FAQ</a> on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> This question was closed as 'No' (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/12/06/early-warning-project-question-resolutions-october-1-2017-september-30-2018/"target="_blank">EWP/Good Judgment</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-09

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-09-29

0.0

[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.185], ["2017-10-01", 0.3], ["2017-10-01", 0.125], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.44], ["2017-10-02", 0.44], ["2017-10-03", 0.125], ["2017-10-03", 0.1], ["2017-10-03", 0.02], ["2017-10-03", 0.02], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-04", 0.01], ["2017-10-06", 0.01], ["2017-10-07", 0.0], ["2017-10-07", 0.0], ["2017-10-07", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-08", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-09", 0.0], ["2017-10-10", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-12", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-13", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.0], ["2017-10-14", 0.01], ["2017-10-15", 0.01], ["2017-10-15", 0.01], ["2017-10-16", 0.01], ["2017-10-16", 0.01], ["2017-10-17", 0.015], ["2017-10-17", 0.015], ["2017-10-18", 0.015], ["2017-10-18", 0.015], ["2017-10-19", 0.015], ["2017-10-19", 0.015], ["2017-10-20", 0.035], ["2017-10-20", 0.035], ["2017-10-21", 0.035], ["2017-10-21", 0.035], ["2017-10-23", 0.035], ["2017-10-23", 0.035], ["2017-10-24", 0.035], ["2017-10-24", 0.035], ["2017-10-25", 0.035], ["2017-10-25", 0.035], ["2017-10-26", 0.035], ["2017-10-26", 0.035], ["2017-10-26", 0.035], ["2017-10-26", 0.03], ["2017-10-27", 0.03], ["2017-10-27", 0.03], ["2017-10-29", 0.03], ["2017-10-29", 0.03], ["2017-10-29", 0.045], ["2017-10-29", 0.045], ["2017-10-30", 0.045], ["2017-10-30", 0.04], ["2017-10-30", 0.04], ["2017-10-31", 0.04], ["2017-10-31", 0.04], ["2017-11-01", 0.04], ["2017-11-01", 0.04], ["2017-11-02", 0.04], ["2017-11-02", 0.04], ["2017-11-03", 0.04], ["2017-11-03", 0.04], ["2017-11-04", 0.04], ["2017-11-04", 0.04], ["2017-11-05", 0.04], ["2017-11-06", 0.04], ["2017-11-07", 0.04], ["2017-11-08", 0.04], ["2017-11-09", 0.03], ["2017-11-09", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-10", 0.03], ["2017-11-12", 0.025], ["2017-11-12", 0.025], ["2017-11-13", 0.025], ["2017-11-13", 0.025], ["2017-11-14", 0.025], ["2017-11-14", 0.025], ["2017-11-15", 0.025], ["2017-11-17", 0.025], ["2017-11-17", 0.025], ["2017-11-18", 0.025], ["2017-11-18", 0.035], ["2017-11-19", 0.035], ["2017-11-19", 0.025], ["2017-11-19", 0.03], ["2017-11-19", 0.03], ["2017-11-20", 0.03], ["2017-11-20", 0.03], ["2017-11-21", 0.03], ["2017-11-22", 0.03], ["2017-11-23", 0.03], ["2017-11-23", 0.03], ["2017-11-24", 0.03], ["2017-11-24", 0.03], ["2017-11-24", 0.03], ["2017-11-26", 0.03], ["2017-11-26", 0.025], ["2017-11-27", 0.025], ["2017-11-28", 0.025], ["2017-11-28", 0.015], ["2017-11-28", 0.015], ["2017-11-28", 0.015], ["2017-11-29", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-15", 0.02], ["2017-12-16", 0.02], ["2017-12-16", 0.015], ["2017-12-16", 0.015], ["2017-12-18", 0.015], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.02], ["2017-12-21", 0.02], ["2017-12-22", 0.02], ["2017-12-22", 0.02], ["2017-12-23", 0.02], ["2017-12-24", 0.02], ["2017-12-25", 0.02], ["2017-12-25", 0.02], ["2017-12-26", 0.02], ["2017-12-26", 0.02], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.015], ["2017-12-29", 0.015], ["2017-12-29", 0.015], ["2017-12-30", 0.015], ["2017-12-30", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02]]

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/622

True

2019-05-25

Will Narendra Modi be appointed to a second consecutive term as prime minister of India after the 2019 general elections?

binary

Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has served as prime minister of India since 2014 (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/Indiasmegavote" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2145_E.htm" target="_blank">Inter-Parliamentary Union</a>). General elections for the Lok Sabha are due to be held in April and May 2019 (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2019-election-crucial-india-history-181120160323155.html" target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>). If no prime minister has been appointed by 1 October 2019, the question will be closed as no. <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/narendra-modi-parliament-address-minorities-1534809-2019-05-26" target="_blank">India Today</a>).&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span>

2019-05-31

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-12-21

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1067

True

2016-11-08

Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November?

binary

This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte (R - NH) lost her bid for reelection to Democrat Maggie Hassan. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> <hr> Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is facing Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan in a tight race (<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_ayotte_vs_hassan-3862.html" target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>, <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-ayotte-vs-hassan" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a>). Ayotte is one of a number of incumbent Republican senators walking the tightrope between criticizing Donald Trump's often unpopular rhetoric and supporting their party's nominee for president, and she has indicated that she will vote for Trump but will not endorse him (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/22/sen-kelly-ayotte-is-stuck-between-donald-trump-and-a-hard-place/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/16/politics/kelly-ayotte-trump-hassan-new-hampshire/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Recommended Questions <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/259-will-senator-pat-toomey-r-pa-be-re-elected-this-november" target="_blank">Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/215" target="_blank">Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/178" target="_blank">Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/177" target="_blank">Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?</a>

2016-11-16

gjopen

["http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/maggie-hassan-kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-senate/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bY3uW-QYfj4", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/new-hampshire/", "https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2016&amp;id=NHS1", "http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-race-wbz-umass-poll-kelly-ayotte-maggie-hassan-jon-keller/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/360117", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2016", "http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-congress-senate", "https://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/questions/1011-will-former-gov-maggie-hassan-defeat-senator-kelly-ayotte-r-for-the-new-hampshire-us-senate-seat", "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436223/kelly-ayotte-nh-senate-race-donald-trump-complicates-reelection-chances", "http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-ayotte-vs-hassan", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_ayotte_vs_hassan-3862.html", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/maggie-hassan-kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-senate/index.html?eref=rss_politics"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-09-16

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/282

True

2018-01-01

Between 25 October and 31 December 2017, will North Korea launch an SLBM?

binary

North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program is continuing to advance (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKCN10Y2B0"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/north-koreas-submarine-missile-tests-critical-advance-highly/"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = "https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/the-sinpo-c-class-a-new-north-korean-ballistic-missile-submarine-is-under-construction/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). The launch must be conducted from a submarine. Barge tests and land based tests of SLBMs won't count. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> North Korea did not launch an SLBM between 25 October and 31 December 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-04

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-10-23

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/666

True

2018-07-13

Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?

binary

A non-mandatory embargo will not count. With warnings of ethnic cleansing and war-induced famine, the US and others have been pushing for an arms embargo (<a href = "https://www.ecr.co.za/news/news/south-sudan-buys-weapons-during-famine-un-report/"target="_blank">ECR</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/outrage-blocks-south-sudan-arms-embargo-161223153844996.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/world/africa/south-sudan-genocide-arms-embargo-united-nations.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Examples of mandatory arms embargoes imposed by the UNSC include the Central African Republic in 2013 (<a href = "https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/Central-African-Republic/un-arms-embargo-on-the-central-african-republic"target="_blank">Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)</a>), Yemen in 2015 (<a href = "https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/yemen/yemen"target="_blank">SIPRI</a>), and Libya in 2011 (<a href = "https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/libya/libya_2011"target="_blank">SIPRI</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> The <a href = "https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/07/1014622"target="_blank">UN imposed an arms embargo on South Sudan</a>. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 13 July 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2018-07-16

gjopen

["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-southsudan-arms-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-to-impose-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan-to-end-conflict-sources-idUSKBN1FM0ZE", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/04/people-burned-to-death-in-homes-by-south-sudan-government-militias-amnesty-report", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/u-s-vows-tough-sanctions-if-south-sudan-doesn-t-end-conflict", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/12/14/un-security-council-warns-on-south-sudan-peace-efforts.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-security-un/u-n-council-fails-to-impose-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan-idUSKBN14C1KY", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-security-un-idUSKBN18K2RH", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/world/africa/us-arms-ban-on-south-sudan-.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-diplomacy/south-sudan-ceasefire-body-says-leaders-breaking-peace-deal-could-face-sanctions-idUSKBN1FE1IG?il=0", "https://www.voanews.com/a/un-security-council-rejects-arms-embargo-south-sudan/3648327.html", "http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/", "https://www.alleastafrica.com/2017/10/30/un-security-council-worried-s-sudan-amid-formations-53-new-rebel-groups/", "https://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2017/12/14/un-security-council-warns-on-south-sudan-peace-efforts-n2422798", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/south-sudan/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/south-sudan-officials-guilty-war-crimes-report-180223152525125.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-protests/hundreds-protest-against-u-s-arms-embargo-in-south-sudan-journalists-attacked-idUSKBN1FQ22E", "https://www.ft.com/content/dc855d9a-501c-11e7-bfb8-997009366969", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/667210", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/unsc_elections_2017.pdf", "https://www.upi.com/Archives/1933/02/24/Japan-stuns-world-withdraws-from-league/2231840119817/", "https://www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerstukken/verslagen", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article62541", "https://news.vice.com/story/inside-the-front-lines-of-south-sudans-unwinnable-war", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-african-union-summit-southsudan/african-union-joins-growing-chorus-demanding-sanctions-on-south-sudan-war-idUSKBN1FI2IO?il=0", "https://africanspress.org/2017/08/31/40-tons-of-south-sudan-weapons-land-at-entebbe/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-05-09

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/483

True

2017-07-01

Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?

binary

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a>} This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>). <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.

2019-12-05

gjopen

["https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/257738.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-31

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/457

True

2016-06-30

Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the "Serial" podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?

binary

This question was closed as "yes" on 30 June 2016: On June 30th, Baltimore City Circuit Judge Martin Welch vacated Syed's conviction (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/30/484225226/adnan-syed-subject-of-serial-podcast-will-get-a-new-trial" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://serialpodcast.org/posts/2016/07/judge-orders-new-trial-for-adnan-syed" target="_blank">Serial</a>, <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/crime/bs-md-ci-adnan-syed-new-trial-20160630-story.html" target="_blank">Baltimore Sun</a>, <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/packages/pdf/6.30.16_asyed_order__1_.pdf" target="_blank">Court Order via NY Times</a>). This American Life's "Serial" Podcast, which investigated the 1999 murder case against Adnan Syed, went viral last fall (<a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/aeb8d37c-7af1-11e4-8646-00144feabdc0.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). His lawyer recently presented new evidence in an appeal to reopen the case (<a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/08/26/adnan-syed-attorney-says-key-evidence-wrong" target = "_blank">US News & World Report</a>). Last updated 17 September 2015.

2016-07-06

gjopen

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Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-09-14

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/36

True

2017-09-09

Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Senegal during September 2017?

binary

This question closed as "a) yes" with an end date of 9 September 2017. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_blank">ACLED</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRYÍ is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT TYPEÍ is: Riots/Protests. The question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the relevant data is first released. _{Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.} <hr>

2017-09-15

gjopen

["https://twitter.com/senegal221news", "http://senego.com/greve-de-la-faim-des-jeunes-khalifistes-modou-diagne-fada-considere-que-leur-objectif-est-atteint_556936.html", "https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sg.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709080698.html", "https://sn.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/security-and-travel-information/", "http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SI.POV.GINI/compare?country=sn#country=sn", "http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/03/dakar-mayor-charged-embezzlement-170308183301979.html", "http://www.miningweekly.com/article/lithium-market-sees-many-new-entrants-as-electric-cars-consumer-goods-drive-demand-2010-04-23/rep_id:3650", "https://www.africom.mil/area-of-responsibility/west-africa/senegal", "http://www.espnfc.com/matchstats?gameId=464073", "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/secret-senegals-success", "https://voices.nationalgeographic.org/2017/07/19/the-dirty-secrets-of-gold-mining-in-senegal/", "http://senegal221.com/", "http://english.alarabiya.net/", "http://aa.com.tr/en/africa/ruling-coalition-declared-winners-in-senegal-elections/877013", "https://sn.usembassy.gov/security-message-recurring-protests-dakar-cheikh-anta-diop-university-june-2017/", "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/", "http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/05/03/463675/US-Senegal-deal-Africa-Dakar", "http://www.enca.com/africa/ten-fans-arrested-after-senegal-soccer-stampede", "https://twitter.com/SenegalNewsNow", "http://www.seneweb.com/news/Politique/frustrations-liees-au-remaniement-le-sen_n_226886.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/topics/country/senegal.html", "http://aa.com.tr/en/africa/senegal-demonstrators-protest-clampdown-on-opposition/792318"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-08-23

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/568

True

2016-12-31

Will any member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?

binary

This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> China's anti-corruption campaign has come under public scrutiny after a number of Politburo members were implicated in the Panama Papers (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/reports-of-offshore-companies-raise-questions-about-beijings-graft-fight-1459869258" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/07/world/asia/china-panama-papers.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4284739/panama-papers-china-xi-jinping-corruption/" target="_blank">TIME</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/07/china-ramps-up-panama-papers-censorship-after-leaders-relatives-named" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>). Recommended Questions: <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15-will-bashar-al-assad-cease-to-be-president-of-syria-before-1-march-2017" target="_blank"> Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/153-will-keiko-fujimori-win-peru-s-upcoming-presidential-election" target="_blank"> Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?</a> <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/201-will-nawaz-sharif-whose-family-was-recently-implicated-in-the-panama-papers-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-pakistan-in-2016" target="_blank">Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, cease to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016?</a>

2017-01-06

gjopen

["https://www.ft.com/content/52871ca4-7a35-11e6-ae24-f193b105145e", "https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/watching-signs-political-triumph-xi", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37869769", "http://www.china.org.cn/china/2016-09/19/content_39322817.htm", "https://twitter.com/relevantorgans/status/785591179379257344", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/322757", "https://www.ft.com/content/09cc1044-8f77-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78", "https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/171344/politburo", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/332990", "http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2186725-exclusive-chinas-anti-corruption-chief-will-be-exempt-from-forced-retirement/", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-corruption-idUKKCN12K0BQ", "https://www.ft.com/content/48abb5dc-7e3b-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-09/10/c_135678295.htm", "http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2835841", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-12/mayor-s-investigation-shakes-up-china-s-political-chessboard", "https://sinocism.com/?p=11679", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2018440/top-tianjin-officials-exit-may-trigger-politburo-power", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H61yfxU2AHg&amp;feature=youtu.be", "http://atimes.com/2016/09/xi-set-to-consolidate-power-by-curbing-communist-youth-league/", "http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2191503-chinas-xi-jinping-paves-political-transition-with-anti-corruption-drive-2/", "http://shanghaiist.com/2016/10/19/always_on_the_road.php", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-corruption-idUSKCN12006D", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/324164", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/asia/china-president-xi-jinping-successor.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-politics-league-exclusive-idUSKCN1200OL"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2016-05-24

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/208

True

2018-01-01

Before 1 January 2018, will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country?

binary

A lethal confrontation, in this case, is one that results in at least three fatalities. Civilian fatalities will count so long as the military, law enforcement, or militia of China and another country are involved in the confrontation. China has been using People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN), militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Sea ( <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/02/china-navy-confirms-carrier-conducted-drills-in-south-china-sea.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/16/little-blue-men-the-maritime-militias-pushing-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/"target="_blank">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>). In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/recent-developments-surrounding-the-south-china-sea/2017/02/12/dc239d84-f18b-11e6-9fb1-2d8f3fc9c0ed_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (<a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-02-13/china-warns-trump-on-east-china-sea-after-abe-meeting"target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href = "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-08/japan-china-dispute-senkaku-diaoyu-islands-ownership/7827430"target="_blank">ABC</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> _{If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/310-when-will-china-next-deploy-a-deep-sea-oil-rig-in-another-country-s-exclusive-economic-zone-eez-without-that-country-s-permission"target="_blank">China will next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission</a> or on whether <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279" target="_blank">negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement will be completed before 1 October 2017</a> or on when <a href="_https://www.gjopen.com/questions/304" target="_blank">a lethal confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea or the United States will result in a fatality for either side?</a>} <hr> There was no lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr>

2018-01-02

gjopen

["http://www.state.gov/t/isn/4791.htm", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/09/trump-urge-un-north-korea-naval-blockade-oil-embargo?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EBB%2009/11/2017&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/world/asia/china-vietnam-south-china-sea.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-exclusive-idUSKBN1AQ0YK", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/06/19/after-a-break-beijing-must-fear-the-u-s-again-over-south-china-sea-expansion/#e793f8076b55", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/15/militarisation-beijing-south-china-sea-islands", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/china-philippines-spar-military-visit-island-170422173715191.html", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/video-of-chinas-fighter-jets-shows-fight-for-control-with-us-in-this-area-1783221", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-japan-idUSKBN17P01Y", "http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/transcripts/3.4.09HearingTranscript.pdf", "http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/7b0d0f70-bb07-48f2-af0a-7474e92d0bb0/San-Remo-ROE-Handbook.aspx", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40701121", "http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a228098.pdf", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/07/china-fighter-plane-spotted-on-south-china-sea-island-think-tank.html", "https://youtu.be/SbrmnsAJUWg", "http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/01/15/it%E2%80%99s-not-just-what-you-forecast-it%E2%80%99s-how-you-forecast", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-philippines-exclu-idUSKBN17B124", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/chinese-patrol-ships-keep-presence-around-malaysian-reefs", "http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/07_Pedrozo-Master.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-south-china-sea.html?_r=0", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/06/asia/philippines-duterte-south-china-sea/", "http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/transcripts/3.18.08HearingTranscript.pdf", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/06/asia/philippines-duterte-south-china-sea/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-china/china-brushes-off-vietnam-protests-over-south-china-sea-drills-idUSKCN1BH110", "http://www.space-library.com/0905ChinaSecurity_Issue14_extract.pdf"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-02-21

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/419

True

2017-06-05

Will Montenegro become a full NATO member before 1 January 2018?

binary

This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 5 June 2017 (<a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_144647.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/montenegro-joins-nato-n768521" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN18W2WS?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Montenegro's accession to NATO can happen when all 28 members have ratified the accession protocol (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36311644"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_131132.htm"target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href = "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/us-senate-panel-likely-to-back-montenegro-s-nato-bid-09-14-2016"target="_blank">Balkan Insight</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/montenegro-nato-united-states-senate-russia/3657386.html"target="_blank">VOA News</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/a/montenegro-nato-russia-chess-match/28210094.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberity</a> , <a href = "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/03/01/canada-ratified-nato-accession-protocol-only-three-countries-left/"target="_blank">European Western Balkans</a>). _{Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.} <hr> Recommended Questions: - <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-before-1-january-2018"target="_blank">Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?</a> - <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/386-before-1-january-2018-will-turkey-montenegro-albania-serbia-or-macedonia-announce-that-it-is-suspending-its-participation-in-eu-membership-negotiations-or-withdrawing-from-the-eu-accession-process">Before 1 January 2018, will Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process?</a> - <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com//questions/369-will-poland-reinstate-visa-free-travel-for-kaliningrad-before-2018">Will Poland reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018?</a>

2017-06-08

gjopen

["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-exclusive-idUSKBN16S2VH?il=0", "https://twitter.com/MeGovernment/status/862589342925107200", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16Y2QF?il=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veto", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/28/news/override-obama-veto-911-bill/", "http://www.nato.int/", "http://www.oecd.org/spain/governmentofspainusefullinks.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16Z2UG?il=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Montenegro_to_NATO", "http://www.politico.eu/article/russia-protests-us-approval-of-montenegros-nato-membership/", "http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/bannons-war/transcript/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/28/montenegro-ratifies-nato-membership-in-historic-shift-to-western-alliance", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16U33K", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/rand-paul-senate-backlash-obamacare-russia-236272", "https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/04/11/world/europe/11reuters-usa-nato-montenegro.html?_r=0", "http://true-news.info/montenegro-in-june-will-become-an-official-member-of-nato/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/428-will-montenegro-become-a-full-nato-member-before-1-january-2018/www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/montenegro-needs-us-nato-help-fend-russians-1091?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&amp;utm_campaign=9e2f0dbf76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_24&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_02cbee778d-9e2f0dbf76-122492589", "https://www.rt.com/news/386469-montenegro-ratifies-nato-membership/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/465935", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN17D1XL", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_143400.htm?selectedLocale=en", "http://www.rferl.org/a/montenegro-parliament-nato-membership-vote/28457280.html", "http://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/montenegro-needs-us-nato-help-fend-russians-1091?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&amp;utm_campaign=9e2f0dbf76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_24&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_02cbee778d-9e2f0dbf76-122492589", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/western-balkans-russias-crosshairs-1091?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&amp;utm_campaign=9e2f0dbf76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_24&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_02cbee778d-9e2f0dbf76-122492589", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-haltzel/montenegro-tests-us-forei_b_14441274.html"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2017-03-07

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/428

True

2019-10-01

Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement?

binary

For the specific heavy weaponry withdrawal requirements see <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2202.pdf" target="_blank">Annex 1, No. 2 of the Minsk II Agreement</a>. The OSCE has established a Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and one of its tasks is monitoring Minsk II compliance (<a href="https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine" target="_blank">Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-security-osce-ukraine-crisis/osce-calls-for-effort-to-jumpstart-ukraine-peace-process-idUSKCN1G01ZO" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).&nbsp;<sub style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a>&nbsp;or&nbsp;<a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>

2019-10-01

gjopen

{}

Not applicable/available for this question.

2018-04-18

0.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/941

True

2016-01-16

Will "implementation day" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections?

binary

Elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly and Assembly of Experts are scheduled for 26 February 2016. Although moderates in Iran hope to expedite implementation of the agreement in order to secure sanction relief before the election, the US has estimated that implementation may take as long as six months (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-mechanism-behind-the-iran-nuclear-deal-goes-into-motion/2015/10/18/b69d0fba-8d4d-404a-ba40-ff5930b54908_story.html , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions.html ). For more information on the timeline of the agreement, see http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/07/21-comprehensive-timeline-iran-nuclear-deal , http://csis.org/ppp/index.htm, http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_5_implementation_plan_en.pdf .

2016-01-18

gjopen

["http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d98ce7f6-b94c-11e5-b151-8e15c9a029fb.html", "http://www.wral.com/pentagon-2-us-navy-boats-held-by-iran-but-will-be-returned/15229502/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-by-monday-as-nuclear-deal-implemented", "http://www.businessinsider.com/us-confirms-iran-has-met-the-requirements-of-landmark-nuclear-deal-2016-1", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-removes-core-of-arak-reactor-looks-to-sanctions-relief/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-general%E2%80%99s-statement-iran", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=252199", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-arak-reactor.html?_r=0", "http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81916790/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-araq-idUSKCN0UP1Y120160111", "http://www.voanews.com/content/white-house-proposed-bill-would-prevent-us-implementation-of-iran-deal/3141247.html", "http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-us-navy-dispute-live-updates-iranian-military-holds-10-american-sailors-irans-2262162", "http://financialtribune.com/articles/national/34208/jcpoa-comes-effect-week", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-arak-idUSKCN0UQ19G20160112", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:9a09ad26de2844efb517e3ab087899d8", "https://twitter.com/ThomasErdbrink/status/687158033844203520", "https://twitter.com/abasinfo", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-holds-us-navy-boats-crew.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35335078", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov-2015-72.pdf", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/16/463168647/u-n-nuclear-watchdog-confirms-iran-nuclear-deal-set-to-be-implemented", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-sanctions-implementation-nuclear-deal.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&amp;utm_campaign=256f195440-January_14_2016&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_28264b27a0-256f195440-102297633", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pentagon-2-u-s-navy-boats-held-iran-military-n495031", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/vienna-iran-iaea-nuclear-deal/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-pours-concrete-into-nuclear-reactor-expects-sanctions-relief/2016/01/11/67011cda-b8a1-11e5-b682-4bb4dd403c7d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-world%3Ahomepage%2Fcard"]

Not applicable/available for this question.

2015-11-03

1.0

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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/72

True