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SubscribeCromSS: Cross-modal pre-training with noisy labels for remote sensing image segmentation
We explore the potential of large-scale noisily labeled data to enhance feature learning by pretraining semantic segmentation models within a multi-modal framework for geospatial applications. We propose a novel Cross-modal Sample Selection (CromSS) method, a weakly supervised pretraining strategy designed to improve feature representations through cross-modal consistency and noise mitigation techniques. Unlike conventional pretraining approaches, CromSS exploits massive amounts of noisy and easy-to-come-by labels for improved feature learning beneficial to semantic segmentation tasks. We investigate middle and late fusion strategies to optimize the multi-modal pretraining architecture design. We also introduce a cross-modal sample selection module to mitigate the adverse effects of label noise, which employs a cross-modal entangling strategy to refine the estimated confidence masks within each modality to guide the sampling process. Additionally, we introduce a spatial-temporal label smoothing technique to counteract overconfidence for enhanced robustness against noisy labels. To validate our approach, we assembled the multi-modal dataset, NoLDO-S12, which consists of a large-scale noisy label subset from Google's Dynamic World (DW) dataset for pretraining and two downstream subsets with high-quality labels from Google DW and OpenStreetMap (OSM) for transfer learning. Experimental results on two downstream tasks and the publicly available DFC2020 dataset demonstrate that when effectively utilized, the low-cost noisy labels can significantly enhance feature learning for segmentation tasks. All data, code, and pretrained weights will be made publicly available.
UKBOB: One Billion MRI Labeled Masks for Generalizable 3D Medical Image Segmentation
In medical imaging, the primary challenge is collecting large-scale labeled data due to privacy concerns, logistics, and high labeling costs. In this work, we present the UK Biobank Organs and Bones (UKBOB), the largest labeled dataset of body organs, comprising 51,761 MRI 3D samples (equivalent to 17.9 million 2D images) and more than 1.37 billion 2D segmentation masks of 72 organs, all based on the UK Biobank MRI dataset. We utilize automatic labeling, introduce an automated label cleaning pipeline with organ-specific filters, and manually annotate a subset of 300 MRIs with 11 abdominal classes to validate the quality (referred to as UKBOB-manual). This approach allows for scaling up the dataset collection while maintaining confidence in the labels. We further confirm the validity of the labels by demonstrating zero-shot generalization of trained models on the filtered UKBOB to other small labeled datasets from similar domains (e.g., abdominal MRI). To further mitigate the effect of noisy labels, we propose a novel method called Entropy Test-time Adaptation (ETTA) to refine the segmentation output. We use UKBOB to train a foundation model, Swin-BOB, for 3D medical image segmentation based on the Swin-UNetr architecture, achieving state-of-the-art results in several benchmarks in 3D medical imaging, including the BRATS brain MRI tumor challenge (with a 0.4% improvement) and the BTCV abdominal CT scan benchmark (with a 1.3% improvement). The pre-trained models and the code are available at https://emmanuelleb985.github.io/ukbob , and the filtered labels will be made available with the UK Biobank.
Removing Objects From Neural Radiance Fields
Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) are emerging as a ubiquitous scene representation that allows for novel view synthesis. Increasingly, NeRFs will be shareable with other people. Before sharing a NeRF, though, it might be desirable to remove personal information or unsightly objects. Such removal is not easily achieved with the current NeRF editing frameworks. We propose a framework to remove objects from a NeRF representation created from an RGB-D sequence. Our NeRF inpainting method leverages recent work in 2D image inpainting and is guided by a user-provided mask. Our algorithm is underpinned by a confidence based view selection procedure. It chooses which of the individual 2D inpainted images to use in the creation of the NeRF, so that the resulting inpainted NeRF is 3D consistent. We show that our method for NeRF editing is effective for synthesizing plausible inpaintings in a multi-view coherent manner. We validate our approach using a new and still-challenging dataset for the task of NeRF inpainting.
Domain Adaptive Hand Keypoint and Pixel Localization in the Wild
We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.
Adaptive Window Pruning for Efficient Local Motion Deblurring
Local motion blur commonly occurs in real-world photography due to the mixing between moving objects and stationary backgrounds during exposure. Existing image deblurring methods predominantly focus on global deblurring, inadvertently affecting the sharpness of backgrounds in locally blurred images and wasting unnecessary computation on sharp pixels, especially for high-resolution images. This paper aims to adaptively and efficiently restore high-resolution locally blurred images. We propose a local motion deblurring vision Transformer (LMD-ViT) built on adaptive window pruning Transformer blocks (AdaWPT). To focus deblurring on local regions and reduce computation, AdaWPT prunes unnecessary windows, only allowing the active windows to be involved in the deblurring processes. The pruning operation relies on the blurriness confidence predicted by a confidence predictor that is trained end-to-end using a reconstruction loss with Gumbel-Softmax re-parameterization and a pruning loss guided by annotated blur masks. Our method removes local motion blur effectively without distorting sharp regions, demonstrated by its exceptional perceptual and quantitative improvements compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our approach substantially reduces FLOPs by 66% and achieves more than a twofold increase in inference speed compared to Transformer-based deblurring methods. We will make our code and annotated blur masks publicly available.
RaySt3R: Predicting Novel Depth Maps for Zero-Shot Object Completion
3D shape completion has broad applications in robotics, digital twin reconstruction, and extended reality (XR). Although recent advances in 3D object and scene completion have achieved impressive results, existing methods lack 3D consistency, are computationally expensive, and struggle to capture sharp object boundaries. Our work (RaySt3R) addresses these limitations by recasting 3D shape completion as a novel view synthesis problem. Specifically, given a single RGB-D image and a novel viewpoint (encoded as a collection of query rays), we train a feedforward transformer to predict depth maps, object masks, and per-pixel confidence scores for those query rays. RaySt3R fuses these predictions across multiple query views to reconstruct complete 3D shapes. We evaluate RaySt3R on synthetic and real-world datasets, and observe it achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the baselines on all datasets by up to 44% in 3D chamfer distance. Project page: https://rayst3r.github.io
ReferDINO: Referring Video Object Segmentation with Visual Grounding Foundations
Referring video object segmentation (RVOS) aims to segment target objects throughout a video based on a text description. Despite notable progress in recent years, current RVOS models remain struggle to handle complicated object descriptions due to their limited video-language understanding. To address this limitation, we present ReferDINO, an end-to-end RVOS model that inherits strong vision-language understanding from the pretrained visual grounding foundation models, and is further endowed with effective temporal understanding and object segmentation capabilities. In ReferDINO, we contribute three technical innovations for effectively adapting the foundation models to RVOS: 1) an object-consistent temporal enhancer that capitalizes on the pretrained object-text representations to enhance temporal understanding and object consistency; 2) a grounding-guided deformable mask decoder that integrates text and grounding conditions to generate accurate object masks; 3) a confidence-aware query pruning strategy that significantly improves the object decoding efficiency without compromising performance. We conduct extensive experiments on five public RVOS benchmarks to demonstrate that our proposed ReferDINO outperforms state-of-the-art methods significantly. Project page: https://isee-laboratory.github.io/ReferDINO
Adaptive Classifier-Free Guidance via Dynamic Low-Confidence Masking
Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) significantly enhances controllability in generative models by interpolating conditional and unconditional predictions. However, standard CFG often employs a static unconditional input, which can be suboptimal for iterative generation processes where model uncertainty varies dynamically. We introduce Adaptive Classifier-Free Guidance (A-CFG), a novel method that tailors the unconditional input by leveraging the model's instantaneous predictive confidence. At each step of an iterative (masked) diffusion language model, A-CFG identifies tokens in the currently generated sequence for which the model exhibits low confidence. These tokens are temporarily re-masked to create a dynamic, localized unconditional input. This focuses CFG's corrective influence precisely on areas of ambiguity, leading to more effective guidance. We integrate A-CFG into a state-of-the-art masked diffusion language model and demonstrate its efficacy. Experiments on diverse language generation benchmarks show that A-CFG yields substantial improvements over standard CFG, achieving, for instance, a 3.9 point gain on GPQA. Our work highlights the benefit of dynamically adapting guidance mechanisms to model uncertainty in iterative generation.
MC-PanDA: Mask Confidence for Panoptic Domain Adaptation
Domain adaptive panoptic segmentation promises to resolve the long tail of corner cases in natural scene understanding. Previous state of the art addresses this problem with cross-task consistency, careful system-level optimization and heuristic improvement of teacher predictions. In contrast, we propose to build upon remarkable capability of mask transformers to estimate their own prediction uncertainty. Our method avoids noise amplification by leveraging fine-grained confidence of panoptic teacher predictions. In particular, we modulate the loss with mask-wide confidence and discourage back-propagation in pixels with uncertain teacher or confident student. Experimental evaluation on standard benchmarks reveals a substantial contribution of the proposed selection techniques. We report 47.4 PQ on Synthia to Cityscapes, which corresponds to an improvement of 6.2 percentage points over the state of the art. The source code is available at https://github.com/helen1c/MC-PanDA.
DiffusionGuard: A Robust Defense Against Malicious Diffusion-based Image Editing
Recent advances in diffusion models have introduced a new era of text-guided image manipulation, enabling users to create realistic edited images with simple textual prompts. However, there is significant concern about the potential misuse of these methods, especially in creating misleading or harmful content. Although recent defense strategies, which introduce imperceptible adversarial noise to induce model failure, have shown promise, they remain ineffective against more sophisticated manipulations, such as editing with a mask. In this work, we propose DiffusionGuard, a robust and effective defense method against unauthorized edits by diffusion-based image editing models, even in challenging setups. Through a detailed analysis of these models, we introduce a novel objective that generates adversarial noise targeting the early stage of the diffusion process. This approach significantly improves the efficiency and effectiveness of adversarial noises. We also introduce a mask-augmentation technique to enhance robustness against various masks during test time. Finally, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the effectiveness and robustness of methods in protecting against privacy threats in realistic scenarios. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method achieves stronger protection and improved mask robustness with lower computational costs compared to the strongest baseline. Additionally, our method exhibits superior transferability and better resilience to noise removal techniques compared to all baseline methods. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/choi403/DiffusionGuard.
Show or Tell? A Benchmark To Evaluate Visual and Textual Prompts in Semantic Segmentation
Prompt engineering has shown remarkable success with large language models, yet its systematic exploration in computer vision remains limited. In semantic segmentation, both textual and visual prompts offer distinct advantages: textual prompts through open-vocabulary methods allow segmentation of arbitrary categories, while visual reference prompts provide intuitive reference examples. However, existing benchmarks evaluate these modalities in isolation, without direct comparison under identical conditions. We present Show or Tell (SoT), a novel benchmark specifically designed to evaluate both visual and textual prompts for semantic segmentation across 14 datasets spanning 7 diverse domains (common scenes, urban, food, waste, parts, tools, and land-cover). We evaluate 5 open-vocabulary methods and 4 visual reference prompt approaches, adapting the latter to handle multi-class segmentation through a confidence-based mask merging strategy. Our extensive experiments reveal that open-vocabulary methods excel with common concepts easily described by text but struggle with complex domains like tools, while visual reference prompt methods achieve good average results but exhibit high variability depending on the input prompt. Through comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis, we identify the strengths and weaknesses of both prompting modalities, providing valuable insights to guide future research in vision foundation models for segmentation tasks.
Calibrating Multimodal Learning
Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.
ColorMAE: Exploring data-independent masking strategies in Masked AutoEncoders
Masked AutoEncoders (MAE) have emerged as a robust self-supervised framework, offering remarkable performance across a wide range of downstream tasks. To increase the difficulty of the pretext task and learn richer visual representations, existing works have focused on replacing standard random masking with more sophisticated strategies, such as adversarial-guided and teacher-guided masking. However, these strategies depend on the input data thus commonly increasing the model complexity and requiring additional calculations to generate the mask patterns. This raises the question: Can we enhance MAE performance beyond random masking without relying on input data or incurring additional computational costs? In this work, we introduce a simple yet effective data-independent method, termed ColorMAE, which generates different binary mask patterns by filtering random noise. Drawing inspiration from color noise in image processing, we explore four types of filters to yield mask patterns with different spatial and semantic priors. ColorMAE requires no additional learnable parameters or computational overhead in the network, yet it significantly enhances the learned representations. We provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation, demonstrating our strategy's superiority in downstream tasks compared to random masking. Notably, we report an improvement of 2.72 in mIoU in semantic segmentation tasks relative to baseline MAE implementations.
Seeing Through the Mask: Rethinking Adversarial Examples for CAPTCHAs
Modern CAPTCHAs rely heavily on vision tasks that are supposedly hard for computers but easy for humans. However, advances in image recognition models pose a significant threat to such CAPTCHAs. These models can easily be fooled by generating some well-hidden "random" noise and adding it to the image, or hiding objects in the image. However, these methods are model-specific and thus can not aid CAPTCHAs in fooling all models. We show in this work that by allowing for more significant changes to the images while preserving the semantic information and keeping it solvable by humans, we can fool many state-of-the-art models. Specifically, we demonstrate that by adding masks of various intensities the Accuracy @ 1 (Acc@1) drops by more than 50%-points for all models, and supposedly robust models such as vision transformers see an Acc@1 drop of 80%-points. These masks can therefore effectively fool modern image classifiers, thus showing that machines have not caught up with humans -- yet.
MF-VITON: High-Fidelity Mask-Free Virtual Try-On with Minimal Input
Recent advancements in Virtual Try-On (VITON) have significantly improved image realism and garment detail preservation, driven by powerful text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models. However, existing methods often rely on user-provided masks, introducing complexity and performance degradation due to imperfect inputs, as shown in Fig.1(a). To address this, we propose a Mask-Free VITON (MF-VITON) framework that achieves realistic VITON using only a single person image and a target garment, eliminating the requirement for auxiliary masks. Our approach introduces a novel two-stage pipeline: (1) We leverage existing Mask-based VITON models to synthesize a high-quality dataset. This dataset contains diverse, realistic pairs of person images and corresponding garments, augmented with varied backgrounds to mimic real-world scenarios. (2) The pre-trained Mask-based model is fine-tuned on the generated dataset, enabling garment transfer without mask dependencies. This stage simplifies the input requirements while preserving garment texture and shape fidelity. Our framework achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance regarding garment transfer accuracy and visual realism. Notably, the proposed Mask-Free model significantly outperforms existing Mask-based approaches, setting a new benchmark and demonstrating a substantial lead over previous approaches. For more details, visit our project page: https://zhenchenwan.github.io/MF-VITON/.
Masked Face Dataset Generation and Masked Face Recognition
In the post-pandemic era, wearing face masks has posed great challenge to the ordinary face recognition. In the previous study, researchers has applied pretrained VGG16, and ResNet50 to extract features on the elaborate curated existing masked face recognition (MFR) datasets, RMFRD and SMFRD. To make the model more adaptable to the real world situation where the sample size is smaller and the camera environment has greater changes, we created a more challenging masked face dataset ourselves, by selecting 50 identities with 1702 images from Labelled Faces in the Wild (LFW) Dataset, and simulated face masks through key point detection. The another part of our study is to solve the masked face recognition problem, and we chose models by referring to the former state of the art results, instead of directly using pretrained models, we fine tuned the model on our new dataset and use the last linear layer to do the classification directly. Furthermore, we proposed using data augmentation strategy to further increase the test accuracy, and fine tuned a new networks beyond the former study, one of the most SOTA networks, Inception ResNet v1. The best test accuracy on 50 identity MFR has achieved 95%.
Mask-ControlNet: Higher-Quality Image Generation with An Additional Mask Prompt
Text-to-image generation has witnessed great progress, especially with the recent advancements in diffusion models. Since texts cannot provide detailed conditions like object appearance, reference images are usually leveraged for the control of objects in the generated images. However, existing methods still suffer limited accuracy when the relationship between the foreground and background is complicated. To address this issue, we develop a framework termed Mask-ControlNet by introducing an additional mask prompt. Specifically, we first employ large vision models to obtain masks to segment the objects of interest in the reference image. Then, the object images are employed as additional prompts to facilitate the diffusion model to better understand the relationship between foreground and background regions during image generation. Experiments show that the mask prompts enhance the controllability of the diffusion model to maintain higher fidelity to the reference image while achieving better image quality. Comparison with previous text-to-image generation methods demonstrates our method's superior quantitative and qualitative performance on the benchmark datasets.
Unlocking the Capabilities of Masked Generative Models for Image Synthesis via Self-Guidance
Masked generative models (MGMs) have shown impressive generative ability while providing an order of magnitude efficient sampling steps compared to continuous diffusion models. However, MGMs still underperform in image synthesis compared to recent well-developed continuous diffusion models with similar size in terms of quality and diversity of generated samples. A key factor in the performance of continuous diffusion models stems from the guidance methods, which enhance the sample quality at the expense of diversity. In this paper, we extend these guidance methods to generalized guidance formulation for MGMs and propose a self-guidance sampling method, which leads to better generation quality. The proposed approach leverages an auxiliary task for semantic smoothing in vector-quantized token space, analogous to the Gaussian blur in continuous pixel space. Equipped with the parameter-efficient fine-tuning method and high-temperature sampling, MGMs with the proposed self-guidance achieve a superior quality-diversity trade-off, outperforming existing sampling methods in MGMs with more efficient training and sampling costs. Extensive experiments with the various sampling hyperparameters confirm the effectiveness of the proposed self-guidance.
Exploring Geometry of Blind Spots in Vision Models
Despite the remarkable success of deep neural networks in a myriad of settings, several works have demonstrated their overwhelming sensitivity to near-imperceptible perturbations, known as adversarial attacks. On the other hand, prior works have also observed that deep networks can be under-sensitive, wherein large-magnitude perturbations in input space do not induce appreciable changes to network activations. In this work, we study in detail the phenomenon of under-sensitivity in vision models such as CNNs and Transformers, and present techniques to study the geometry and extent of "equi-confidence" level sets of such networks. We propose a Level Set Traversal algorithm that iteratively explores regions of high confidence with respect to the input space using orthogonal components of the local gradients. Given a source image, we use this algorithm to identify inputs that lie in the same equi-confidence level set as the source image despite being perceptually similar to arbitrary images from other classes. We further observe that the source image is linearly connected by a high-confidence path to these inputs, uncovering a star-like structure for level sets of deep networks. Furthermore, we attempt to identify and estimate the extent of these connected higher-dimensional regions over which the model maintains a high degree of confidence. The code for this project is publicly available at https://github.com/SriramB-98/blindspots-neurips-sub
FFaceNeRF: Few-shot Face Editing in Neural Radiance Fields
Recent 3D face editing methods using masks have produced high-quality edited images by leveraging Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF). Despite their impressive performance, existing methods often provide limited user control due to the use of pre-trained segmentation masks. To utilize masks with a desired layout, an extensive training dataset is required, which is challenging to gather. We present FFaceNeRF, a NeRF-based face editing technique that can overcome the challenge of limited user control due to the use of fixed mask layouts. Our method employs a geometry adapter with feature injection, allowing for effective manipulation of geometry attributes. Additionally, we adopt latent mixing for tri-plane augmentation, which enables training with a few samples. This facilitates rapid model adaptation to desired mask layouts, crucial for applications in fields like personalized medical imaging or creative face editing. Our comparative evaluations demonstrate that FFaceNeRF surpasses existing mask based face editing methods in terms of flexibility, control, and generated image quality, paving the way for future advancements in customized and high-fidelity 3D face editing. The code is available on the {https://kwanyun.github.io/FFaceNeRF_page/{project-page}}.
Be Careful When Evaluating Explanations Regarding Ground Truth
Evaluating explanations of image classifiers regarding ground truth, e.g. segmentation masks defined by human perception, primarily evaluates the quality of the models under consideration rather than the explanation methods themselves. Driven by this observation, we propose a framework for jointly evaluating the robustness of safety-critical systems that combine a deep neural network with an explanation method. These are increasingly used in real-world applications like medical image analysis or robotics. We introduce a fine-tuning procedure to (mis)align modelx2013explanation pipelines with ground truth and use it to quantify the potential discrepancy between worst and best-case scenarios of human alignment. Experiments across various model architectures and post-hoc local interpretation methods provide insights into the robustness of vision transformers and the overall vulnerability of such AI systems to potential adversarial attacks.
Beyond Masked and Unmasked: Discrete Diffusion Models via Partial Masking
Masked diffusion models (MDM) are powerful generative models for discrete data that generate samples by progressively unmasking tokens in a sequence. Each token can take one of two states: masked or unmasked. We observe that token sequences often remain unchanged between consecutive sampling steps; consequently, the model repeatedly processes identical inputs, leading to redundant computation. To address this inefficiency, we propose the Partial masking scheme (Prime), which augments MDM by allowing tokens to take intermediate states interpolated between the masked and unmasked states. This design enables the model to make predictions based on partially observed token information, and facilitates a fine-grained denoising process. We derive a variational training objective and introduce a simple architectural design to accommodate intermediate-state inputs. Our method demonstrates superior performance across a diverse set of generative modeling tasks. On text data, it achieves a perplexity of 15.36 on OpenWebText, outperforming previous MDM (21.52), autoregressive models (17.54), and their hybrid variants (17.58), without relying on an autoregressive formulation. On image data, it attains competitive FID scores of 3.26 on CIFAR-10 and 6.98 on ImageNet-32, comparable to leading continuous generative models.
Unmasking Anomalies in Road-Scene Segmentation
Anomaly segmentation is a critical task for driving applications, and it is approached traditionally as a per-pixel classification problem. However, reasoning individually about each pixel without considering their contextual semantics results in high uncertainty around the objects' boundaries and numerous false positives. We propose a paradigm change by shifting from a per-pixel classification to a mask classification. Our mask-based method, Mask2Anomaly, demonstrates the feasibility of integrating an anomaly detection method in a mask-classification architecture. Mask2Anomaly includes several technical novelties that are designed to improve the detection of anomalies in masks: i) a global masked attention module to focus individually on the foreground and background regions; ii) a mask contrastive learning that maximizes the margin between an anomaly and known classes; and iii) a mask refinement solution to reduce false positives. Mask2Anomaly achieves new state-of-the-art results across a range of benchmarks, both in the per-pixel and component-level evaluations. In particular, Mask2Anomaly reduces the average false positives rate by 60% wrt the previous state-of-the-art. Github page: https://github.com/shyam671/Mask2Anomaly-Unmasking-Anomalies-in-Road-Scene-Segmentation.
GFlowOut: Dropout with Generative Flow Networks
Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.
DemoCaricature: Democratising Caricature Generation with a Rough Sketch
In this paper, we democratise caricature generation, empowering individuals to effortlessly craft personalised caricatures with just a photo and a conceptual sketch. Our objective is to strike a delicate balance between abstraction and identity, while preserving the creativity and subjectivity inherent in a sketch. To achieve this, we present Explicit Rank-1 Model Editing alongside single-image personalisation, selectively applying nuanced edits to cross-attention layers for a seamless merge of identity and style. Additionally, we propose Random Mask Reconstruction to enhance robustness, directing the model to focus on distinctive identity and style features. Crucially, our aim is not to replace artists but to eliminate accessibility barriers, allowing enthusiasts to engage in the artistry.
MCGM: Mask Conditional Text-to-Image Generative Model
Recent advancements in generative models have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligence, enabling the creation of highly-realistic and detailed images. In this study, we propose a novel Mask Conditional Text-to-Image Generative Model (MCGM) that leverages the power of conditional diffusion models to generate pictures with specific poses. Our model builds upon the success of the Break-a-scene [1] model in generating new scenes using a single image with multiple subjects and incorporates a mask embedding injection that allows the conditioning of the generation process. By introducing this additional level of control, MCGM offers a flexible and intuitive approach for generating specific poses for one or more subjects learned from a single image, empowering users to influence the output based on their requirements. Through extensive experimentation and evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in generating high-quality images that meet predefined mask conditions and improving the current Break-a-scene generative model.
Stare at What You See: Masked Image Modeling without Reconstruction
Masked Autoencoders (MAE) have been prevailing paradigms for large-scale vision representation pre-training. By reconstructing masked image patches from a small portion of visible image regions, MAE forces the model to infer semantic correlation within an image. Recently, some approaches apply semantic-rich teacher models to extract image features as the reconstruction target, leading to better performance. However, unlike the low-level features such as pixel values, we argue the features extracted by powerful teacher models already encode rich semantic correlation across regions in an intact image.This raises one question: is reconstruction necessary in Masked Image Modeling (MIM) with a teacher model? In this paper, we propose an efficient MIM paradigm named MaskAlign. MaskAlign simply learns the consistency of visible patch features extracted by the student model and intact image features extracted by the teacher model. To further advance the performance and tackle the problem of input inconsistency between the student and teacher model, we propose a Dynamic Alignment (DA) module to apply learnable alignment. Our experimental results demonstrate that masked modeling does not lose effectiveness even without reconstruction on masked regions. Combined with Dynamic Alignment, MaskAlign can achieve state-of-the-art performance with much higher efficiency. Code and models will be available at https://github.com/OpenPerceptionX/maskalign.
Texture-Preserving Diffusion Models for High-Fidelity Virtual Try-On
Image-based virtual try-on is an increasingly important task for online shopping. It aims to synthesize images of a specific person wearing a specified garment. Diffusion model-based approaches have recently become popular, as they are excellent at image synthesis tasks. However, these approaches usually employ additional image encoders and rely on the cross-attention mechanism for texture transfer from the garment to the person image, which affects the try-on's efficiency and fidelity. To address these issues, we propose an Texture-Preserving Diffusion (TPD) model for virtual try-on, which enhances the fidelity of the results and introduces no additional image encoders. Accordingly, we make contributions from two aspects. First, we propose to concatenate the masked person and reference garment images along the spatial dimension and utilize the resulting image as the input for the diffusion model's denoising UNet. This enables the original self-attention layers contained in the diffusion model to achieve efficient and accurate texture transfer. Second, we propose a novel diffusion-based method that predicts a precise inpainting mask based on the person and reference garment images, further enhancing the reliability of the try-on results. In addition, we integrate mask prediction and image synthesis into a single compact model. The experimental results show that our approach can be applied to various try-on tasks, e.g., garment-to-person and person-to-person try-ons, and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on popular VITON, VITON-HD databases.
MaskSketch: Unpaired Structure-guided Masked Image Generation
Recent conditional image generation methods produce images of remarkable diversity, fidelity and realism. However, the majority of these methods allow conditioning only on labels or text prompts, which limits their level of control over the generation result. In this paper, we introduce MaskSketch, an image generation method that allows spatial conditioning of the generation result using a guiding sketch as an extra conditioning signal during sampling. MaskSketch utilizes a pre-trained masked generative transformer, requiring no model training or paired supervision, and works with input sketches of different levels of abstraction. We show that intermediate self-attention maps of a masked generative transformer encode important structural information of the input image, such as scene layout and object shape, and we propose a novel sampling method based on this observation to enable structure-guided generation. Our results show that MaskSketch achieves high image realism and fidelity to the guiding structure. Evaluated on standard benchmark datasets, MaskSketch outperforms state-of-the-art methods for sketch-to-image translation, as well as unpaired image-to-image translation approaches.
MaskGAN: Towards Diverse and Interactive Facial Image Manipulation
Facial image manipulation has achieved great progress in recent years. However, previous methods either operate on a predefined set of face attributes or leave users little freedom to interactively manipulate images. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose a novel framework termed MaskGAN, enabling diverse and interactive face manipulation. Our key insight is that semantic masks serve as a suitable intermediate representation for flexible face manipulation with fidelity preservation. MaskGAN has two main components: 1) Dense Mapping Network (DMN) and 2) Editing Behavior Simulated Training (EBST). Specifically, DMN learns style mapping between a free-form user modified mask and a target image, enabling diverse generation results. EBST models the user editing behavior on the source mask, making the overall framework more robust to various manipulated inputs. Specifically, it introduces dual-editing consistency as the auxiliary supervision signal. To facilitate extensive studies, we construct a large-scale high-resolution face dataset with fine-grained mask annotations named CelebAMask-HQ. MaskGAN is comprehensively evaluated on two challenging tasks: attribute transfer and style copy, demonstrating superior performance over other state-of-the-art methods. The code, models, and dataset are available at https://github.com/switchablenorms/CelebAMask-HQ.
MetaF2N: Blind Image Super-Resolution by Learning Efficient Model Adaptation from Faces
Due to their highly structured characteristics, faces are easier to recover than natural scenes for blind image super-resolution. Therefore, we can extract the degradation representation of an image from the low-quality and recovered face pairs. Using the degradation representation, realistic low-quality images can then be synthesized to fine-tune the super-resolution model for the real-world low-quality image. However, such a procedure is time-consuming and laborious, and the gaps between recovered faces and the ground-truths further increase the optimization uncertainty. To facilitate efficient model adaptation towards image-specific degradations, we propose a method dubbed MetaF2N, which leverages the contained Faces to fine-tune model parameters for adapting to the whole Natural image in a Meta-learning framework. The degradation extraction and low-quality image synthesis steps are thus circumvented in our MetaF2N, and it requires only one fine-tuning step to get decent performance. Considering the gaps between the recovered faces and ground-truths, we further deploy a MaskNet for adaptively predicting loss weights at different positions to reduce the impact of low-confidence areas. To evaluate our proposed MetaF2N, we have collected a real-world low-quality dataset with one or multiple faces in each image, and our MetaF2N achieves superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Source code, pre-trained models, and collected datasets are available at https://github.com/yinzhicun/MetaF2N.
Bootstrap Masked Visual Modeling via Hard Patches Mining
Masked visual modeling has attracted much attention due to its promising potential in learning generalizable representations. Typical approaches urge models to predict specific contents of masked tokens, which can be intuitively considered as teaching a student (the model) to solve given problems (predicting masked contents). Under such settings, the performance is highly correlated with mask strategies (the difficulty of provided problems). We argue that it is equally important for the model to stand in the shoes of a teacher to produce challenging problems by itself. Intuitively, patches with high values of reconstruction loss can be regarded as hard samples, and masking those hard patches naturally becomes a demanding reconstruction task. To empower the model as a teacher, we propose Hard Patches Mining (HPM), predicting patch-wise losses and subsequently determining where to mask. Technically, we introduce an auxiliary loss predictor, which is trained with a relative objective to prevent overfitting to exact loss values. Also, to gradually guide the training procedure, we propose an easy-to-hard mask strategy. Empirically, HPM brings significant improvements under both image and video benchmarks. Interestingly, solely incorporating the extra loss prediction objective leads to better representations, verifying the efficacy of determining where is hard to reconstruct. The code is available at https://github.com/Haochen-Wang409/HPM.
Robust Neural Rendering in the Wild with Asymmetric Dual 3D Gaussian Splatting
3D reconstruction from in-the-wild images remains a challenging task due to inconsistent lighting conditions and transient distractors. Existing methods typically rely on heuristic strategies to handle the low-quality training data, which often struggle to produce stable and consistent reconstructions, frequently resulting in visual artifacts. In this work, we propose Asymmetric Dual 3DGS, a novel framework that leverages the stochastic nature of these artifacts: they tend to vary across different training runs due to minor randomness. Specifically, our method trains two 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) models in parallel, enforcing a consistency constraint that encourages convergence on reliable scene geometry while suppressing inconsistent artifacts. To prevent the two models from collapsing into similar failure modes due to confirmation bias, we introduce a divergent masking strategy that applies two complementary masks: a multi-cue adaptive mask and a self-supervised soft mask, which leads to an asymmetric training process of the two models, reducing shared error modes. In addition, to improve the efficiency of model training, we introduce a lightweight variant called Dynamic EMA Proxy, which replaces one of the two models with a dynamically updated Exponential Moving Average (EMA) proxy, and employs an alternating masking strategy to preserve divergence. Extensive experiments on challenging real-world datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing approaches while achieving high efficiency. Codes and trained models will be released.
3DV-TON: Textured 3D-Guided Consistent Video Try-on via Diffusion Models
Video try-on replaces clothing in videos with target garments. Existing methods struggle to generate high-quality and temporally consistent results when handling complex clothing patterns and diverse body poses. We present 3DV-TON, a novel diffusion-based framework for generating high-fidelity and temporally consistent video try-on results. Our approach employs generated animatable textured 3D meshes as explicit frame-level guidance, alleviating the issue of models over-focusing on appearance fidelity at the expanse of motion coherence. This is achieved by enabling direct reference to consistent garment texture movements throughout video sequences. The proposed method features an adaptive pipeline for generating dynamic 3D guidance: (1) selecting a keyframe for initial 2D image try-on, followed by (2) reconstructing and animating a textured 3D mesh synchronized with original video poses. We further introduce a robust rectangular masking strategy that successfully mitigates artifact propagation caused by leaking clothing information during dynamic human and garment movements. To advance video try-on research, we introduce HR-VVT, a high-resolution benchmark dataset containing 130 videos with diverse clothing types and scenarios. Quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate our superior performance over existing methods. The project page is at this link https://2y7c3.github.io/3DV-TON/
Illusory VQA: Benchmarking and Enhancing Multimodal Models on Visual Illusions
In recent years, Visual Question Answering (VQA) has made significant strides, particularly with the advent of multimodal models that integrate vision and language understanding. However, existing VQA datasets often overlook the complexities introduced by image illusions, which pose unique challenges for both human perception and model interpretation. In this study, we introduce a novel task called Illusory VQA, along with four specialized datasets: IllusionMNIST, IllusionFashionMNIST, IllusionAnimals, and IllusionChar. These datasets are designed to evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art multimodal models in recognizing and interpreting visual illusions. We assess the zero-shot performance of various models, fine-tune selected models on our datasets, and propose a simple yet effective solution for illusion detection using Gaussian and blur low-pass filters. We show that this method increases the performance of models significantly and in the case of BLIP-2 on IllusionAnimals without any fine-tuning, it outperforms humans. Our findings highlight the disparity between human and model perception of illusions and demonstrate that fine-tuning and specific preprocessing techniques can significantly enhance model robustness. This work contributes to the development of more human-like visual understanding in multimodal models and suggests future directions for adapting filters using learnable parameters.
SINet: Extreme Lightweight Portrait Segmentation Networks with Spatial Squeeze Modules and Information Blocking Decoder
Designing a lightweight and robust portrait segmentation algorithm is an important task for a wide range of face applications. However, the problem has been considered as a subset of the object segmentation problem and less handled in the semantic segmentation field. Obviously, portrait segmentation has its unique requirements. First, because the portrait segmentation is performed in the middle of a whole process of many real-world applications, it requires extremely lightweight models. Second, there has not been any public datasets in this domain that contain a sufficient number of images with unbiased statistics. To solve the first problem, we introduce the new extremely lightweight portrait segmentation model SINet, containing an information blocking decoder and spatial squeeze modules. The information blocking decoder uses confidence estimates to recover local spatial information without spoiling global consistency. The spatial squeeze module uses multiple receptive fields to cope with various sizes of consistency in the image. To tackle the second problem, we propose a simple method to create additional portrait segmentation data which can improve accuracy on the EG1800 dataset. In our qualitative and quantitative analysis on the EG1800 dataset, we show that our method outperforms various existing lightweight segmentation models. Our method reduces the number of parameters from 2.1M to 86.9K (around 95.9% reduction), while maintaining the accuracy under an 1% margin from the state-of-the-art portrait segmentation method. We also show our model is successfully executed on a real mobile device with 100.6 FPS. In addition, we demonstrate that our method can be used for general semantic segmentation on the Cityscapes dataset. The code and dataset are available in https://github.com/HYOJINPARK/ExtPortraitSeg .
Structured-Noise Masked Modeling for Video, Audio and Beyond
Masked modeling has emerged as a powerful self-supervised learning framework, but existing methods largely rely on random masking, disregarding the structural properties of different modalities. In this work, we introduce structured noise-based masking, a simple yet effective approach that naturally aligns with the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of video and audio data. By filtering white noise into distinct color noise distributions, we generate structured masks that preserve modality-specific patterns without requiring handcrafted heuristics or access to the data. Our approach improves the performance of masked video and audio modeling frameworks without any computational overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate that structured noise masking achieves consistent improvement over random masking for standard and advanced masked modeling methods, highlighting the importance of modality-aware masking strategies for representation learning.
Towards Improved Input Masking for Convolutional Neural Networks
The ability to remove features from the input of machine learning models is very important to understand and interpret model predictions. However, this is non-trivial for vision models since masking out parts of the input image typically causes large distribution shifts. This is because the baseline color used for masking (typically grey or black) is out of distribution. Furthermore, the shape of the mask itself can contain unwanted signals which can be used by the model for its predictions. Recently, there has been some progress in mitigating this issue (called missingness bias) in image masking for vision transformers. In this work, we propose a new masking method for CNNs we call layer masking in which the missingness bias caused by masking is reduced to a large extent. Intuitively, layer masking applies a mask to intermediate activation maps so that the model only processes the unmasked input. We show that our method (i) is able to eliminate or minimize the influence of the mask shape or color on the output of the model, and (ii) is much better than replacing the masked region by black or grey for input perturbation based interpretability techniques like LIME. Thus, layer masking is much less affected by missingness bias than other masking strategies. We also demonstrate how the shape of the mask may leak information about the class, thus affecting estimates of model reliance on class-relevant features derived from input masking. Furthermore, we discuss the role of data augmentation techniques for tackling this problem, and argue that they are not sufficient for preventing model reliance on mask shape. The code for this project is publicly available at https://github.com/SriramB-98/layer_masking
MaTe3D: Mask-guided Text-based 3D-aware Portrait Editing
Recently, 3D-aware face editing has witnessed remarkable progress. Although current approaches successfully perform mask-guided or text-based editing, these properties have not been combined into a single method. To address this limitation, we propose MaTe3D: mask-guided text-based 3D-aware portrait editing. First, we propose a new SDF-based 3D generator. To better perform masked-based editing (mainly happening in local areas), we propose SDF and density consistency losses, aiming to effectively model both the global and local representations jointly. Second, we introduce an inference-optimized method. We introduce two techniques based on the SDS (Score Distillation Sampling), including a blending SDS and a conditional SDS. The former aims to overcome the mismatch problem between geometry and appearance, ultimately harming fidelity. The conditional SDS contributes to further producing satisfactory and stable results. Additionally, we create CatMask-HQ dataset, a large-scale high-resolution cat face annotations. We perform experiments on both the FFHQ and CatMask-HQ datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our method generates faithfully a edited 3D-aware face image given a modified mask and a text prompt. Our code and models will be publicly released.
Is Your Text-to-Image Model Robust to Caption Noise?
In text-to-image (T2I) generation, a prevalent training technique involves utilizing Vision Language Models (VLMs) for image re-captioning. Even though VLMs are known to exhibit hallucination, generating descriptive content that deviates from the visual reality, the ramifications of such caption hallucinations on T2I generation performance remain under-explored. Through our empirical investigation, we first establish a comprehensive dataset comprising VLM-generated captions, and then systematically analyze how caption hallucination influences generation outcomes. Our findings reveal that (1) the disparities in caption quality persistently impact model outputs during fine-tuning. (2) VLMs confidence scores serve as reliable indicators for detecting and characterizing noise-related patterns in the data distribution. (3) even subtle variations in caption fidelity have significant effects on the quality of learned representations. These findings collectively emphasize the profound impact of caption quality on model performance and highlight the need for more sophisticated robust training algorithm in T2I. In response to these observations, we propose a approach leveraging VLM confidence score to mitigate caption noise, thereby enhancing the robustness of T2I models against hallucination in caption.
Guard Me If You Know Me: Protecting Specific Face-Identity from Deepfakes
Securing personal identity against deepfake attacks is increasingly critical in the digital age, especially for celebrities and political figures whose faces are easily accessible and frequently targeted. Most existing deepfake detection methods focus on general-purpose scenarios and often ignore the valuable prior knowledge of known facial identities, e.g., "VIP individuals" whose authentic facial data are already available. In this paper, we propose VIPGuard, a unified multimodal framework designed to capture fine-grained and comprehensive facial representations of a given identity, compare them against potentially fake or similar-looking faces, and reason over these comparisons to make accurate and explainable predictions. Specifically, our framework consists of three main stages. First, fine-tune a multimodal large language model (MLLM) to learn detailed and structural facial attributes. Second, we perform identity-level discriminative learning to enable the model to distinguish subtle differences between highly similar faces, including real and fake variations. Finally, we introduce user-specific customization, where we model the unique characteristics of the target face identity and perform semantic reasoning via MLLM to enable personalized and explainable deepfake detection. Our framework shows clear advantages over previous detection works, where traditional detectors mainly rely on low-level visual cues and provide no human-understandable explanations, while other MLLM-based models often lack a detailed understanding of specific face identities. To facilitate the evaluation of our method, we built a comprehensive identity-aware benchmark called VIPBench for personalized deepfake detection, involving the latest 7 face-swapping and 7 entire face synthesis techniques for generation.
Why Random Pruning Is All We Need to Start Sparse
Random masks define surprisingly effective sparse neural network models, as has been shown empirically. The resulting sparse networks can often compete with dense architectures and state-of-the-art lottery ticket pruning algorithms, even though they do not rely on computationally expensive prune-train iterations and can be drawn initially without significant computational overhead. We offer a theoretical explanation of how random masks can approximate arbitrary target networks if they are wider by a logarithmic factor in the inverse sparsity 1 / log(1/sparsity). This overparameterization factor is necessary at least for 3-layer random networks, which elucidates the observed degrading performance of random networks at higher sparsity. At moderate to high sparsity levels, however, our results imply that sparser networks are contained within random source networks so that any dense-to-sparse training scheme can be turned into a computationally more efficient sparse-to-sparse one by constraining the search to a fixed random mask. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in experiments for different pruning methods and propose particularly effective choices of initial layer-wise sparsity ratios of the random source network. As a special case, we show theoretically and experimentally that random source networks also contain strong lottery tickets.
Certified Patch Robustness via Smoothed Vision Transformers
Certified patch defenses can guarantee robustness of an image classifier to arbitrary changes within a bounded contiguous region. But, currently, this robustness comes at a cost of degraded standard accuracies and slower inference times. We demonstrate how using vision transformers enables significantly better certified patch robustness that is also more computationally efficient and does not incur a substantial drop in standard accuracy. These improvements stem from the inherent ability of the vision transformer to gracefully handle largely masked images. Our code is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/smoothed-vit.
Plan for Speed: Dilated Scheduling for Masked Diffusion Language Models
Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) promise fast, non-autoregressive text generation, yet existing samplers, which pick tokens to unmask based on model confidence, ignore interactions when unmasking multiple positions in parallel and effectively reduce to slow, autoregressive behavior. We propose the Dilated Unmasking Scheduler (DUS), an inference-only, planner-model-free method that partitions sequence positions into non-adjacent dilated groups and unmasked them in parallel so as to minimize an upper bound on joint entropy gain at each denoising step. By explicitly trading off the number of network calls against generation quality, DUS recovers most of the performance lost under traditional parallel unmasking strategies. Across math (GSM8K, MATH500), code (HumanEval, MBPP) and general-knowledge benchmarks (BBH, MMLU-Pro), DUS outperforms confidence-based planners, without modifying the underlying denoiser, and reveals the true speed-quality frontier of MDLMs.
Confidence Is All You Need: Few-Shot RL Fine-Tuning of Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) excel at reasoning, yet post-training remains critical for aligning their behavior with task goals. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods often depend on costly human annotations or external reward models. We propose Reinforcement Learning via Self-Confidence (RLSC), which uses the model's own confidence as reward signals-eliminating the need for labels, preference models, or reward engineering. Applied to Qwen2.5-Math-7B with only 16 samples per question and 10 or 20 training steps, RLSC improves accuracy by +13.4% on AIME2024, +21.2% on MATH500, +21.7% on Minerva Math, +20.8% on Olympiadbench, and +9.7% on AMC23. RLSC provides a simple, scalable post-training method for inference models, requiring only a small number of samples and unlabelled supervision.
Confidence Regulation Neurons in Language Models
Despite their widespread use, the mechanisms by which large language models (LLMs) represent and regulate uncertainty in next-token predictions remain largely unexplored. This study investigates two critical components believed to influence this uncertainty: the recently discovered entropy neurons and a new set of components that we term token frequency neurons. Entropy neurons are characterized by an unusually high weight norm and influence the final layer normalization (LayerNorm) scale to effectively scale down the logits. Our work shows that entropy neurons operate by writing onto an unembedding null space, allowing them to impact the residual stream norm with minimal direct effect on the logits themselves. We observe the presence of entropy neurons across a range of models, up to 7 billion parameters. On the other hand, token frequency neurons, which we discover and describe here for the first time, boost or suppress each token's logit proportionally to its log frequency, thereby shifting the output distribution towards or away from the unigram distribution. Finally, we present a detailed case study where entropy neurons actively manage confidence in the setting of induction, i.e. detecting and continuing repeated subsequences.
Confidence Calibration and Rationalization for LLMs via Multi-Agent Deliberation
Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose decisions and confidences not only stem from intrinsic beliefs but can also be adjusted through daily observations, existing calibration methods for LLMs focus on estimating or eliciting individual confidence without taking full advantage of the "Collective Wisdom": the interaction among multiple LLMs that can collectively improve both accuracy and calibration. In this work, we propose Collaborative Calibration, a post-hoc training-free calibration strategy that leverages the collaborative and expressive capabilities of multiple tool-augmented LLM agents in a simulated group deliberation process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Collaborative Calibration on generative QA tasks across various domains, showing its potential in harnessing the rationalization of collectively calibrated confidence assessments and improving the reliability of model predictions.
Confidence and Stability of Global and Pairwise Scores in NLP Evaluation
With the advent of highly capable instruction-tuned neural language models, benchmarking in natural language processing (NLP) is increasingly shifting towards pairwise comparison leaderboards, such as LMSYS Arena, from traditional global pointwise scores (e.g., GLUE, BIG-bench, SWE-bench). This paper empirically investigates the strengths and weaknesses of both global scores and pairwise comparisons to aid decision-making in selecting appropriate model evaluation strategies. Through computational experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets using standard global metrics and the popular Bradley-Terry model for pairwise comparisons, we found that while global scores provide more reliable overall rankings, they can underestimate strong models with rare, significant errors or low confidence. Conversely, pairwise comparisons are particularly effective for identifying strong contenders among models with lower global scores, especially where quality metrics are hard to define (e.g., text generation), though they require more comparisons to converge if ties are frequent. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/HSPyroblast/srw-ranking under a permissive license.
Confidence-Weighted Boundary-Aware Learning for Semi-Supervised Semantic Segmentation
Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSSS) aims to improve segmentation performance by utilising unlabeled data alongside limited labeled samples. Existing SSSS methods often face challenges such as coupling, where over-reliance on initial labeled data leads to suboptimal learning; confirmation bias, where incorrect predictions reinforce themselves repeatedly; and boundary blur caused by insufficient boundary-awareness and ambiguous edge information. To address these issues, we propose CW-BASS, a novel framework for SSSS. In order to mitigate the impact of incorrect predictions, we assign confidence weights to pseudo-labels. Additionally, we leverage boundary-delineation techniques, which, despite being extensively explored in weakly-supervised semantic segmentation (WSSS) remain under-explored in SSSS. Specifically, our approach: (1) reduces coupling through a confidence-weighted loss function that adjusts the influence of pseudo-labels based on their predicted confidence scores, (2) mitigates confirmation bias with a dynamic thresholding mechanism that learns to filter out pseudo-labels based on model performance, (3) resolves boundary blur with a boundary-aware module that enhances segmentation accuracy near object boundaries, and (4) reduces label noise with a confidence decay strategy that progressively refines pseudo-labels during training. Extensive experiments on the Pascal VOC 2012 and Cityscapes demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, using only 1/8 or 12.5\% of labeled data, our method achieves a mIoU of 75.81 on Pascal VOC 2012, highlighting its effectiveness in limited-label settings.
Confidence v.s. Critique: A Decomposition of Self-Correction Capability for LLMs
Large Language Models (LLMs) can correct their self-generated responses, but a decline in accuracy after self-correction is also witnessed. To have a deeper understanding of self-correction, we endeavor to decompose, evaluate, and analyze the self-correction behaviors of LLMs. By enumerating and analyzing answer correctness before and after self-correction, we decompose the self-correction capability into confidence (being confident to correct answers) and critique (turning wrong answers to correct) capabilities, and propose two metrics from a probabilistic perspective to measure these 2 capabilities, along with another metric for overall self-correction capability evaluation. Based on our decomposition and evaluation metrics, we conduct extensive experiments and draw some empirical conclusions. For example, we find different models can exhibit distinct behaviors: some models are confident while others are more critical. We also find the trade-off between the two capabilities (i.e. improving one can lead to a decline in the other) when manipulating model self-correction behavior by prompts or in-context learning. Further, we find a simple yet efficient strategy to improve self-correction capability by transforming Supervision Fine-Tuning (SFT) data format, and our strategy outperforms vanilla SFT in both capabilities and achieves much higher accuracy after self-correction. Our code will be publicly available on GitHub.
Confidence in the Reasoning of Large Language Models
There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.
Confidence-aware Reward Optimization for Fine-tuning Text-to-Image Models
Fine-tuning text-to-image models with reward functions trained on human feedback data has proven effective for aligning model behavior with human intent. However, excessive optimization with such reward models, which serve as mere proxy objectives, can compromise the performance of fine-tuned models, a phenomenon known as reward overoptimization. To investigate this issue in depth, we introduce the Text-Image Alignment Assessment (TIA2) benchmark, which comprises a diverse collection of text prompts, images, and human annotations. Our evaluation of several state-of-the-art reward models on this benchmark reveals their frequent misalignment with human assessment. We empirically demonstrate that overoptimization occurs notably when a poorly aligned reward model is used as the fine-tuning objective. To address this, we propose TextNorm, a simple method that enhances alignment based on a measure of reward model confidence estimated across a set of semantically contrastive text prompts. We demonstrate that incorporating the confidence-calibrated rewards in fine-tuning effectively reduces overoptimization, resulting in twice as many wins in human evaluation for text-image alignment compared against the baseline reward models.
Confidence Self-Calibration for Multi-Label Class-Incremental Learning
The partial label challenge in Multi-Label Class-Incremental Learning (MLCIL) arises when only the new classes are labeled during training, while past and future labels remain unavailable. This issue leads to a proliferation of false-positive errors due to erroneously high confidence multi-label predictions, exacerbating catastrophic forgetting within the disjoint label space. In this paper, we aim to refine multi-label confidence calibration in MLCIL and propose a Confidence Self-Calibration (CSC) approach. Firstly, for label relationship calibration, we introduce a class-incremental graph convolutional network that bridges the isolated label spaces by constructing learnable, dynamically extended label relationship graph. Then, for confidence calibration, we present a max-entropy regularization for each multi-label increment, facilitating confidence self-calibration through the penalization of over-confident output distributions. Our approach attains new state-of-the-art results in MLCIL tasks on both MS-COCO and PASCAL VOC datasets, with the calibration of label confidences confirmed through our methodology.
Confidence Matters: Revisiting Intrinsic Self-Correction Capabilities of Large Language Models
The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to address the ongoing debate about its feasibility. Our research has identified an important latent factor - the "confidence" of LLMs - during the self-correction process. Overlooking this factor may cause the models to over-criticize themselves, resulting in unreliable conclusions regarding the efficacy of self-correction. We have experimentally observed that LLMs possess the capability to understand the "confidence" in their own responses. It motivates us to develop an "If-or-Else" (IoE) prompting framework, designed to guide LLMs in assessing their own "confidence", facilitating intrinsic self-corrections. We conduct extensive experiments and demonstrate that our IoE-based Prompt can achieve a consistent improvement regarding the accuracy of self-corrected responses over the initial answers. Our study not only sheds light on the underlying factors affecting self-correction in LLMs, but also introduces a practical framework that utilizes the IoE prompting principle to efficiently improve self-correction capabilities with "confidence". The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-CLeaR/IoE-Prompting.git.
Confidence-Building Measures for Artificial Intelligence: Workshop Proceedings
Foundation models could eventually introduce several pathways for undermining state security: accidents, inadvertent escalation, unintentional conflict, the proliferation of weapons, and the interference with human diplomacy are just a few on a long list. The Confidence-Building Measures for Artificial Intelligence workshop hosted by the Geopolitics Team at OpenAI and the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab at the University of California brought together a multistakeholder group to think through the tools and strategies to mitigate the potential risks introduced by foundation models to international security. Originating in the Cold War, confidence-building measures (CBMs) are actions that reduce hostility, prevent conflict escalation, and improve trust between parties. The flexibility of CBMs make them a key instrument for navigating the rapid changes in the foundation model landscape. Participants identified the following CBMs that directly apply to foundation models and which are further explained in this conference proceedings: 1. crisis hotlines 2. incident sharing 3. model, transparency, and system cards 4. content provenance and watermarks 5. collaborative red teaming and table-top exercises and 6. dataset and evaluation sharing. Because most foundation model developers are non-government entities, many CBMs will need to involve a wider stakeholder community. These measures can be implemented either by AI labs or by relevant government actors.
Confidence Ranking for CTR Prediction
Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.
Confidence-based Event-centric Online Video Question Answering on a Newly Constructed ATBS Dataset
Deep neural networks facilitate video question answering (VideoQA), but the real-world applications on video streams such as CCTV and live cast place higher demands on the solver. To address the challenges of VideoQA on long videos of unknown length, we define a new set of problems called Online Open-ended Video Question Answering (O^2VQA). It requires an online state-updating mechanism for the solver to decide if the collected information is sufficient to conclude an answer. We then propose a Confidence-based Event-centric Online Video Question Answering (CEO-VQA) model to solve this problem. Furthermore, a dataset called Answer Target in Background Stream (ATBS) is constructed to evaluate this newly developed online VideoQA application. Compared to the baseline VideoQA method that watches the whole video, the experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a significant performance gain.
Confidence Score for Source-Free Unsupervised Domain Adaptation
Source-free unsupervised domain adaptation (SFUDA) aims to obtain high performance in the unlabeled target domain using the pre-trained source model, not the source data. Existing SFUDA methods assign the same importance to all target samples, which is vulnerable to incorrect pseudo-labels. To differentiate between sample importance, in this study, we propose a novel sample-wise confidence score, the Joint Model-Data Structure (JMDS) score for SFUDA. Unlike existing confidence scores that use only one of the source or target domain knowledge, the JMDS score uses both knowledge. We then propose a Confidence score Weighting Adaptation using the JMDS (CoWA-JMDS) framework for SFUDA. CoWA-JMDS consists of the JMDS scores as sample weights and weight Mixup that is our proposed variant of Mixup. Weight Mixup promotes the model make more use of the target domain knowledge. The experimental results show that the JMDS score outperforms the existing confidence scores. Moreover, CoWA-JMDS achieves state-of-the-art performance on various SFUDA scenarios: closed, open, and partial-set scenarios.
Confidence-aware Non-repetitive Multimodal Transformers for TextCaps
When describing an image, reading text in the visual scene is crucial to understand the key information. Recent work explores the TextCaps task, i.e. image captioning with reading Optical Character Recognition (OCR) tokens, which requires models to read text and cover them in generated captions. Existing approaches fail to generate accurate descriptions because of their (1) poor reading ability; (2) inability to choose the crucial words among all extracted OCR tokens; (3) repetition of words in predicted captions. To this end, we propose a Confidence-aware Non-repetitive Multimodal Transformers (CNMT) to tackle the above challenges. Our CNMT consists of a reading, a reasoning and a generation modules, in which Reading Module employs better OCR systems to enhance text reading ability and a confidence embedding to select the most noteworthy tokens. To address the issue of word redundancy in captions, our Generation Module includes a repetition mask to avoid predicting repeated word in captions. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art models on TextCaps dataset, improving from 81.0 to 93.0 in CIDEr. Our source code is publicly available.
Confidence through Attention
Attention distributions of the generated translations are a useful bi-product of attention-based recurrent neural network translation models and can be treated as soft alignments between the input and output tokens. In this work, we use attention distributions as a confidence metric for output translations. We present two strategies of using the attention distributions: filtering out bad translations from a large back-translated corpus, and selecting the best translation in a hybrid setup of two different translation systems. While manual evaluation indicated only a weak correlation between our confidence score and human judgments, the use-cases showed improvements of up to 2.22 BLEU points for filtering and 0.99 points for hybrid translation, tested on English<->German and English<->Latvian translation.
FSFM: A Generalizable Face Security Foundation Model via Self-Supervised Facial Representation Learning
This work asks: with abundant, unlabeled real faces, how to learn a robust and transferable facial representation that boosts various face security tasks with respect to generalization performance? We make the first attempt and propose a self-supervised pretraining framework to learn fundamental representations of real face images, FSFM, that leverages the synergy between masked image modeling (MIM) and instance discrimination (ID). We explore various facial masking strategies for MIM and present a simple yet powerful CRFR-P masking, which explicitly forces the model to capture meaningful intra-region consistency and challenging inter-region coherency. Furthermore, we devise the ID network that naturally couples with MIM to establish underlying local-to-global correspondence via tailored self-distillation. These three learning objectives, namely 3C, empower encoding both local features and global semantics of real faces. After pretraining, a vanilla ViT serves as a universal vision foundation model for downstream face security tasks: cross-dataset deepfake detection, cross-domain face anti-spoofing, and unseen diffusion facial forgery detection. Extensive experiments on 10 public datasets demonstrate that our model transfers better than supervised pretraining, visual and facial self-supervised learning arts, and even outperforms task-specialized SOTA methods.
Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners
This paper shows that masked autoencoders (MAE) are scalable self-supervised learners for computer vision. Our MAE approach is simple: we mask random patches of the input image and reconstruct the missing pixels. It is based on two core designs. First, we develop an asymmetric encoder-decoder architecture, with an encoder that operates only on the visible subset of patches (without mask tokens), along with a lightweight decoder that reconstructs the original image from the latent representation and mask tokens. Second, we find that masking a high proportion of the input image, e.g., 75%, yields a nontrivial and meaningful self-supervisory task. Coupling these two designs enables us to train large models efficiently and effectively: we accelerate training (by 3x or more) and improve accuracy. Our scalable approach allows for learning high-capacity models that generalize well: e.g., a vanilla ViT-Huge model achieves the best accuracy (87.8%) among methods that use only ImageNet-1K data. Transfer performance in downstream tasks outperforms supervised pre-training and shows promising scaling behavior.
VideoICL: Confidence-based Iterative In-context Learning for Out-of-Distribution Video Understanding
Recent advancements in video large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly improved their video understanding and reasoning capabilities. However, their performance drops on out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks that are underrepresented in training data. Traditional methods like fine-tuning on OOD datasets are impractical due to high computational costs. While In-context learning (ICL) with demonstration examples has shown promising generalization performance in language tasks and image-language tasks without fine-tuning, applying ICL to video-language tasks faces challenges due to the limited context length in Video LMMs, as videos require longer token lengths. To address these issues, we propose VideoICL, a novel video in-context learning framework for OOD tasks that introduces a similarity-based relevant example selection strategy and a confidence-based iterative inference approach. This allows to select the most relevant examples and rank them based on similarity, to be used for inference. If the generated response has low confidence, our framework selects new examples and performs inference again, iteratively refining the results until a high-confidence response is obtained. This approach improves OOD video understanding performance by extending effective context length without incurring high costs. The experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant performance gains, especially in domain-specific scenarios, laying the groundwork for broader video comprehension applications. Code will be released at https://github.com/KangsanKim07/VideoICL
ICON: Incremental CONfidence for Joint Pose and Radiance Field Optimization
Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.
Language Models Prefer What They Know: Relative Confidence Estimation via Confidence Preferences
Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.
The Confidence-Competence Gap in Large Language Models: A Cognitive Study
Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.
BEN: Using Confidence-Guided Matting for Dichotomous Image Segmentation
Current approaches to dichotomous image segmentation (DIS) treat image matting and object segmentation as fundamentally different tasks. As improvements in image segmentation become increasingly challenging to achieve, combining image matting and grayscale segmentation techniques offers promising new directions for architectural innovation. Inspired by the possibility of aligning these two model tasks, we propose a new architectural approach for DIS called Confidence-Guided Matting (CGM). We created the first CGM model called Background Erase Network (BEN). BEN is comprised of two components: BEN Base for initial segmentation and BEN Refiner for confidence refinement. Our approach achieves substantial improvements over current state-of-the-art methods on the DIS5K validation dataset, demonstrating that matting-based refinement can significantly enhance segmentation quality. This work opens new possibilities for cross-pollination between matting and segmentation techniques in computer vision.
ConCISE: Confidence-guided Compression in Step-by-step Efficient Reasoning
Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) perform strongly in complex reasoning tasks via Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, but often suffer from verbose outputs caused by redundant content, increasing computational overhead, and degrading user experience. Existing compression methods either operate post-hoc pruning, risking disruption to reasoning coherence, or rely on sampling-based selection, which fails to intervene effectively during generation. In this work, we introduce a confidence-guided perspective to explain the emergence of redundant reflection in LRMs, identifying two key patterns: Confidence Deficit, where the model reconsiders correct steps due to low internal confidence, and Termination Delay, where reasoning continues even after reaching a confident answer. Based on this analysis, we propose ConCISE (Confidence-guided Compression In Step-by-step Efficient Reasoning), a framework that simplifies reasoning chains by reinforcing the model's confidence during inference, thus preventing the generation of redundant reflection steps. It integrates Confidence Injection to stabilize intermediate steps and Early Stopping to terminate reasoning when confidence is sufficient. Extensive experiments demonstrate that fine-tuning LRMs on ConCISE-generated data yields significantly shorter outputs, reducing length by up to approximately 50% under SimPO, while maintaining high task accuracy. ConCISE consistently outperforms existing baselines across multiple reasoning benchmarks.
COIN: Confidence Score-Guided Distillation for Annotation-Free Cell Segmentation
Cell instance segmentation (CIS) is crucial for identifying individual cell morphologies in histopathological images, providing valuable insights for biological and medical research. While unsupervised CIS (UCIS) models aim to reduce the heavy reliance on labor-intensive image annotations, they fail to accurately capture cell boundaries, causing missed detections and poor performance. Recognizing the absence of error-free instances as a key limitation, we present COIN (COnfidence score-guided INstance distillation), a novel annotation-free framework with three key steps: (1) Increasing the sensitivity for the presence of error-free instances via unsupervised semantic segmentation with optimal transport, leveraging its ability to discriminate spatially minor instances, (2) Instance-level confidence scoring to measure the consistency between model prediction and refined mask and identify highly confident instances, offering an alternative to ground truth annotations, and (3) Progressive expansion of confidence with recursive self-distillation. Extensive experiments across six datasets show COIN outperforming existing UCIS methods, even surpassing semi- and weakly-supervised approaches across all metrics on the MoNuSeg and TNBC datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/shjo-april/COIN.
Uncertainty in Action: Confidence Elicitation in Embodied Agents
Expressing confidence is challenging for embodied agents navigating dynamic multimodal environments, where uncertainty arises from both perception and decision-making processes. We present the first work investigating embodied confidence elicitation in open-ended multimodal environments. We introduce Elicitation Policies, which structure confidence assessment across inductive, deductive, and abductive reasoning, along with Execution Policies, which enhance confidence calibration through scenario reinterpretation, action sampling, and hypothetical reasoning. Evaluating agents in calibration and failure prediction tasks within the Minecraft environment, we show that structured reasoning approaches, such as Chain-of-Thoughts, improve confidence calibration. However, our findings also reveal persistent challenges in distinguishing uncertainty, particularly under abductive settings, underscoring the need for more sophisticated embodied confidence elicitation methods.
CARIL: Confidence-Aware Regression in Imitation Learning for Autonomous Driving
End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.
Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception
Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.
Perceived Confidence Scoring for Data Annotation with Zero-Shot LLMs
Zero-shot LLMs are now also used for textual classification tasks, e.g., sentiment/emotion detection of a given input as a sentence/article. However, their performance can be suboptimal in such data annotation tasks. We introduce a novel technique Perceived Confidence Scoring (PCS) that evaluates LLM's confidence for its classification of an input by leveraging Metamorphic Relations (MRs). The MRs generate semantically equivalent yet textually mutated versions of the input. Following the principles of Metamorphic Testing (MT), the mutated versions are expected to have annotation labels similar to the input. By analyzing the consistency of LLM responses across these variations, PCS computes a confidence score based on the frequency of predicted labels. PCS can be used both for single LLM and multiple LLM settings (e.g., majority voting). We introduce an algorithm Perceived Differential Evolution (PDE) that determines the optimal weights assigned to the MRs and the LLMs for a classification task. Empirical evaluation shows PCS significantly improves zero-shot accuracy for Llama-3-8B-Instruct (4.96%) and Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3 (10.52%), with Gemma-2-9b-it showing a 9.39% gain. When combining all three models, PCS significantly outperforms majority voting by 7.75%.
Well-calibrated Confidence Measures for Multi-label Text Classification with a Large Number of Labels
We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.
PACE-LM: Prompting and Augmentation for Calibrated Confidence Estimation with GPT-4 in Cloud Incident Root Cause Analysis
Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.
CAME: Confidence-guided Adaptive Memory Efficient Optimization
Adaptive gradient methods, such as Adam and LAMB, have demonstrated excellent performance in the training of large language models. Nevertheless, the need for adaptivity requires maintaining second-moment estimates of the per-parameter gradients, which entails a high cost of extra memory overheads. To solve this problem, several memory-efficient optimizers (e.g., Adafactor) have been proposed to obtain a drastic reduction in auxiliary memory usage, but with a performance penalty. In this paper, we first study a confidence-guided strategy to reduce the instability of existing memory efficient optimizers. Based on this strategy, we propose CAME to simultaneously achieve two goals: fast convergence as in traditional adaptive methods, and low memory usage as in memory-efficient methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate the training stability and superior performance of CAME across various NLP tasks such as BERT and GPT-2 training. Notably, for BERT pre-training on the large batch size of 32,768, our proposed optimizer attains faster convergence and higher accuracy compared with the Adam optimizer. The implementation of CAME is publicly available.
Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs
Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.
Unleashing the Potential of Spiking Neural Networks by Dynamic Confidence
This paper presents a new methodology to alleviate the fundamental trade-off between accuracy and latency in spiking neural networks (SNNs). The approach involves decoding confidence information over time from the SNN outputs and using it to develop a decision-making agent that can dynamically determine when to terminate each inference. The proposed method, Dynamic Confidence, provides several significant benefits to SNNs. 1. It can effectively optimize latency dynamically at runtime, setting it apart from many existing low-latency SNN algorithms. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets have demonstrated an average 40% speedup across eight different settings after applying Dynamic Confidence. 2. The decision-making agent in Dynamic Confidence is straightforward to construct and highly robust in parameter space, making it extremely easy to implement. 3. The proposed method enables visualizing the potential of any given SNN, which sets a target for current SNNs to approach. For instance, if an SNN can terminate at the most appropriate time point for each input sample, a ResNet-50 SNN can achieve an accuracy as high as 82.47% on ImageNet within just 4.71 time steps on average. Unlocking the potential of SNNs needs a highly-reliable decision-making agent to be constructed and fed with a high-quality estimation of ground truth. In this regard, Dynamic Confidence represents a meaningful step toward realizing the potential of SNNs.
Analytical confidence intervals for the number of different objects in data streams
This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.
Adaptive Confidence Smoothing for Generalized Zero-Shot Learning
Generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) is the problem of learning a classifier where some classes have samples and others are learned from side information, like semantic attributes or text description, in a zero-shot learning fashion (ZSL). Training a single model that operates in these two regimes simultaneously is challenging. Here we describe a probabilistic approach that breaks the model into three modular components, and then combines them in a consistent way. Specifically, our model consists of three classifiers: A "gating" model that makes soft decisions if a sample is from a "seen" class, and two experts: a ZSL expert, and an expert model for seen classes. We address two main difficulties in this approach: How to provide an accurate estimate of the gating probability without any training samples for unseen classes; and how to use expert predictions when it observes samples outside of its domain. The key insight to our approach is to pass information between the three models to improve each one's accuracy, while maintaining the modular structure. We test our approach, adaptive confidence smoothing (COSMO), on four standard GZSL benchmark datasets and find that it largely outperforms state-of-the-art GZSL models. COSMO is also the first model that closes the gap and surpasses the performance of generative models for GZSL, even-though it is a light-weight model that is much easier to train and tune. Notably, COSMO offers a new view for developing zero-shot models. Thanks to COSMO's modular structure, instead of trying to perform well both on seen and on unseen classes, models can focus on accurate classification of unseen classes, and later consider seen class models.
Nearly Zero-Cost Protection Against Mimicry by Personalized Diffusion Models
Recent advancements in diffusion models revolutionize image generation but pose risks of misuse, such as replicating artworks or generating deepfakes. Existing image protection methods, though effective, struggle to balance protection efficacy, invisibility, and latency, thus limiting practical use. We introduce perturbation pre-training to reduce latency and propose a mixture-of-perturbations approach that dynamically adapts to input images to minimize performance degradation. Our novel training strategy computes protection loss across multiple VAE feature spaces, while adaptive targeted protection at inference enhances robustness and invisibility. Experiments show comparable protection performance with improved invisibility and drastically reduced inference time. The code and demo are available at https://webtoon.github.io/impasto
Large Language Model Confidence Estimation via Black-Box Access
Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.
Llamas Know What GPTs Don't Show: Surrogate Models for Confidence Estimation
To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of these models, but as of November 2023, state-of-the-art LLMs such as GPT-4 and Claude-v1.3 do not provide access to these probabilities. We first study eliciting confidence linguistically -- asking an LLM for its confidence in its answer -- which performs reasonably (80.5% AUC on GPT-4 averaged across 12 question-answering datasets -- 7% above a random baseline) but leaves room for improvement. We then explore using a surrogate confidence model -- using a model where we do have probabilities to evaluate the original model's confidence in a given question. Surprisingly, even though these probabilities come from a different and often weaker model, this method leads to higher AUC than linguistic confidences on 9 out of 12 datasets. Our best method composing linguistic confidences and surrogate model probabilities gives state-of-the-art confidence estimates on all 12 datasets (84.6% average AUC on GPT-4).
Early-Exit and Instant Confidence Translation Quality Estimation
Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance.
Confident Splatting: Confidence-Based Compression of 3D Gaussian Splatting via Learnable Beta Distributions
3D Gaussian Splatting enables high-quality real-time rendering but often produces millions of splats, resulting in excessive storage and computational overhead. We propose a novel lossy compression method based on learnable confidence scores modeled as Beta distributions. Each splat's confidence is optimized through reconstruction-aware losses, enabling pruning of low-confidence splats while preserving visual fidelity. The proposed approach is architecture-agnostic and can be applied to any Gaussian Splatting variant. In addition, the average confidence values serve as a new metric to assess the quality of the scene. Extensive experiments demonstrate favorable trade-offs between compression and fidelity compared to prior work. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/amirhossein-razlighi/Confident-Splatting
Learning to Route with Confidence Tokens
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.
Real-Time Confidence Detection through Facial Expressions and Hand Gestures
Real-time face orientation recognition is a cutting-edge technology meant to track and analyze facial movements in virtual environments such as online interviews, remote meetings, and virtual classrooms. As the demand for virtual interactions grows, it becomes increasingly important to measure participant engagement, attention, and overall interaction. This research presents a novel solution that leverages the Media Pipe Face Mesh framework to identify facial landmarks and extract geometric data for calculating Euler angles, which determine head orientation in real time. The system tracks 3D facial landmarks and uses this data to compute head movements with a focus on accuracy and responsiveness. By studying Euler angles, the system can identify a user's head orientation with an accuracy of 90\%, even at a distance of up to four feet. This capability offers significant enhancements for monitoring user interaction, allowing for more immersive and interactive virtual ex-periences. The proposed method shows its reliability in evaluating participant attentiveness during online assessments and meetings. Its application goes beyond engagement analysis, potentially providing a means for improving the quality of virtual communication, fostering better understanding between participants, and ensuring a higher level of interaction in digital spaces. This study offers a basis for future developments in enhancing virtual user experiences by integrating real-time facial tracking technologies, paving the way for more adaptive and interactive web-based platform.
Shuffle PatchMix Augmentation with Confidence-Margin Weighted Pseudo-Labels for Enhanced Source-Free Domain Adaptation
This work investigates Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA), where a model adapts to a target domain without access to source data. A new augmentation technique, Shuffle PatchMix (SPM), and a novel reweighting strategy are introduced to enhance performance. SPM shuffles and blends image patches to generate diverse and challenging augmentations, while the reweighting strategy prioritizes reliable pseudo-labels to mitigate label noise. These techniques are particularly effective on smaller datasets like PACS, where overfitting and pseudo-label noise pose greater risks. State-of-the-art results are achieved on three major benchmarks: PACS, VisDA-C, and DomainNet-126. Notably, on PACS, improvements of 7.3% (79.4% to 86.7%) and 7.2% are observed in single-target and multi-target settings, respectively, while gains of 2.8% and 0.7% are attained on DomainNet-126 and VisDA-C. This combination of advanced augmentation and robust pseudo-label reweighting establishes a new benchmark for SFDA. The code is available at: https://github.com/PrasannaPulakurthi/SPM
CleanMAP: Distilling Multimodal LLMs for Confidence-Driven Crowdsourced HD Map Updates
The rapid growth of intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) and integrated vehicle-road-cloud systems has increased the demand for accurate, real-time HD map updates. However, ensuring map reliability remains challenging due to inconsistencies in crowdsourced data, which suffer from motion blur, lighting variations, adverse weather, and lane marking degradation. This paper introduces CleanMAP, a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM)-based distillation framework designed to filter and refine crowdsourced data for high-confidence HD map updates. CleanMAP leverages an MLLM-driven lane visibility scoring model that systematically quantifies key visual parameters, assigning confidence scores (0-10) based on their impact on lane detection. A novel dynamic piecewise confidence-scoring function adapts scores based on lane visibility, ensuring strong alignment with human evaluations while effectively filtering unreliable data. To further optimize map accuracy, a confidence-driven local map fusion strategy ranks and selects the top-k highest-scoring local maps within an optimal confidence range (best score minus 10%), striking a balance between data quality and quantity. Experimental evaluations on a real-world autonomous vehicle dataset validate CleanMAP's effectiveness, demonstrating that fusing the top three local maps achieves the lowest mean map update error of 0.28m, outperforming the baseline (0.37m) and meeting stringent accuracy thresholds (<= 0.32m). Further validation with real-vehicle data confirms 84.88% alignment with human evaluators, reinforcing the model's robustness and reliability. This work establishes CleanMAP as a scalable and deployable solution for crowdsourced HD map updates, ensuring more precise and reliable autonomous navigation. The code will be available at https://Ankit-Zefan.github.io/CleanMap/
ClimateX: Do LLMs Accurately Assess Human Expert Confidence in Climate Statements?
Evaluating the accuracy of outputs generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) is especially important in the climate science and policy domain. We introduce the Expert Confidence in Climate Statements (ClimateX) dataset, a novel, curated, expert-labeled dataset consisting of 8094 climate statements collected from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, labeled with their associated confidence levels. Using this dataset, we show that recent LLMs can classify human expert confidence in climate-related statements, especially in a few-shot learning setting, but with limited (up to 47%) accuracy. Overall, models exhibit consistent and significant over-confidence on low and medium confidence statements. We highlight implications of our results for climate communication, LLMs evaluation strategies, and the use of LLMs in information retrieval systems.
ProcSim: Proxy-based Confidence for Robust Similarity Learning
Deep Metric Learning (DML) methods aim at learning an embedding space in which distances are closely related to the inherent semantic similarity of the inputs. Previous studies have shown that popular benchmark datasets often contain numerous wrong labels, and DML methods are susceptible to them. Intending to study the effect of realistic noise, we create an ontology of the classes in a dataset and use it to simulate semantically coherent labeling mistakes. To train robust DML models, we propose ProcSim, a simple framework that assigns a confidence score to each sample using the normalized distance to its class representative. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the DML benchmark datasets injected with uniform and the proposed semantically coherent noise.
Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains an open challenge, with limited research on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NLG. Furthermore, existing literature typically assumes white-box access to language models, which is becoming unrealistic either due to the closed-source nature of the latest LLMs or computational constraints. In this work, we investigate UQ in NLG for black-box LLMs. We first differentiate uncertainty vs confidence: the former refers to the "dispersion" of the potential predictions for a fixed input, and the latter refers to the confidence on a particular prediction/generation. We then propose and compare several confidence/uncertainty metrics, applying them to selective NLG where unreliable results could either be ignored or yielded for further assessment. Experiments were carried out with several popular LLMs on question-answering datasets (for evaluation purposes). Results reveal that a simple metric for the semantic dispersion can be a reliable predictor of the quality of LLM responses, providing valuable insights for practitioners on uncertainty management when adopting LLMs. The code to replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/zlin7/UQ-NLG.
Simple Token-Level Confidence Improves Caption Correctness
The ability to judge whether a caption correctly describes an image is a critical part of vision-language understanding. However, state-of-the-art models often misinterpret the correctness of fine-grained details, leading to errors in outputs such as hallucinating objects in generated captions or poor compositional reasoning. In this work, we explore Token-Level Confidence, or TLC, as a simple yet surprisingly effective method to assess caption correctness. Specifically, we fine-tune a vision-language model on image captioning, input an image and proposed caption to the model, and aggregate either algebraic or learned token confidences over words or sequences to estimate image-caption consistency. Compared to sequence-level scores from pretrained models, TLC with algebraic confidence measures achieves a relative improvement in accuracy by 10% on verb understanding in SVO-Probes and outperforms prior state-of-the-art in image and group scores for compositional reasoning in Winoground by a relative 37% and 9%, respectively. When training data are available, a learned confidence estimator provides further improved performance, reducing object hallucination rates in MS COCO Captions by a relative 30% over the original model and setting a new state-of-the-art.
RED-ACE: Robust Error Detection for ASR using Confidence Embeddings
ASR Error Detection (AED) models aim to post-process the output of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems, in order to detect transcription errors. Modern approaches usually use text-based input, comprised solely of the ASR transcription hypothesis, disregarding additional signals from the ASR model. Instead, we propose to utilize the ASR system's word-level confidence scores for improving AED performance. Specifically, we add an ASR Confidence Embedding (ACE) layer to the AED model's encoder, allowing us to jointly encode the confidence scores and the transcribed text into a contextualized representation. Our experiments show the benefits of ASR confidence scores for AED, their complementary effect over the textual signal, as well as the effectiveness and robustness of ACE for combining these signals. To foster further research, we publish a novel AED dataset consisting of ASR outputs on the LibriSpeech corpus with annotated transcription errors.
Calibrating LLM Confidence by Probing Perturbed Representation Stability
Miscalibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) undermines their reliability, highlighting the need for accurate confidence estimation. We introduce CCPS (Calibrating LLM Confidence by Probing Perturbed Representation Stability), a novel method analyzing internal representational stability in LLMs. CCPS applies targeted adversarial perturbations to final hidden states, extracts features reflecting the model's response to these perturbations, and uses a lightweight classifier to predict answer correctness. CCPS was evaluated on LLMs from 8B to 32B parameters (covering Llama, Qwen, and Mistral architectures) using MMLU and MMLU-Pro benchmarks in both multiple-choice and open-ended formats. Our results show that CCPS significantly outperforms current approaches. Across four LLMs and three MMLU variants, CCPS reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 55% and Brier score by 21%, while increasing accuracy by 5 percentage points, Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve by 4 percentage points, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve by 6 percentage points, all relative to the strongest prior method. CCPS delivers an efficient, broadly applicable, and more accurate solution for estimating LLM confidence, thereby improving their trustworthiness.
SUGAR: Leveraging Contextual Confidence for Smarter Retrieval
Bearing in mind the limited parametric knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) which supplies them with the relevant external knowledge has served as an approach to mitigate the issue of hallucinations to a certain extent. However, uniformly retrieving supporting context makes response generation source-inefficient, as triggering the retriever is not always necessary, or even inaccurate, when a model gets distracted by noisy retrieved content and produces an unhelpful answer. Motivated by these issues, we introduce Semantic Uncertainty Guided Adaptive Retrieval (SUGAR), where we leverage context-based entropy to actively decide whether to retrieve and to further determine between single-step and multi-step retrieval. Our empirical results show that selective retrieval guided by semantic uncertainty estimation improves the performance across diverse question answering tasks, as well as achieves a more efficient inference.
Understanding the Impact of Confidence in Retrieval Augmented Generation: A Case Study in the Medical Domain
Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) complements the knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging external information to enhance response accuracy for queries. This approach is widely applied in several fields by taking its advantage of injecting the most up-to-date information, and researchers are focusing on understanding and improving this aspect to unlock the full potential of RAG in such high-stakes applications. However, despite the potential of RAG to address these needs, the mechanisms behind the confidence levels of its outputs remain underexplored, although the confidence of information is very critical in some domains, such as finance, healthcare, and medicine. Our study focuses the impact of RAG on confidence within the medical domain under various configurations and models. We evaluate confidence by treating the model's predicted probability as its output and calculating Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) scores based on the probabilities and accuracy. In addition, we analyze whether the order of retrieved documents within prompts calibrates the confidence. Our findings reveal large variation in confidence and accuracy depending on the model, settings, and the format of input prompts. These results underscore the necessity of optimizing configurations based on the specific model and conditions.
Have the VLMs Lost Confidence? A Study of Sycophancy in VLMs
In the study of LLMs, sycophancy represents a prevalent hallucination that poses significant challenges to these models. Specifically, LLMs often fail to adhere to original correct responses, instead blindly agreeing with users' opinions, even when those opinions are incorrect or malicious. However, research on sycophancy in visual language models (VLMs) has been scarce. In this work, we extend the exploration of sycophancy from LLMs to VLMs, introducing the MM-SY benchmark to evaluate this phenomenon. We present evaluation results from multiple representative models, addressing the gap in sycophancy research for VLMs. To mitigate sycophancy, we propose a synthetic dataset for training and employ methods based on prompts, supervised fine-tuning, and DPO. Our experiments demonstrate that these methods effectively alleviate sycophancy in VLMs. Additionally, we probe VLMs to assess the semantic impact of sycophancy and analyze the attention distribution of visual tokens. Our findings indicate that the ability to prevent sycophancy is predominantly observed in higher layers of the model. The lack of attention to image knowledge in these higher layers may contribute to sycophancy, and enhancing image attention at high layers proves beneficial in mitigating this issue.
Enhancing Source-Free Domain Adaptive Object Detection with Low-confidence Pseudo Label Distillation
Source-Free domain adaptive Object Detection (SFOD) is a promising strategy for deploying trained detectors to new, unlabeled domains without accessing source data, addressing significant concerns around data privacy and efficiency. Most SFOD methods leverage a Mean-Teacher (MT) self-training paradigm relying heavily on High-confidence Pseudo Labels (HPL). However, these HPL often overlook small instances that undergo significant appearance changes with domain shifts. Additionally, HPL ignore instances with low confidence due to the scarcity of training samples, resulting in biased adaptation toward familiar instances from the source domain. To address this limitation, we introduce the Low-confidence Pseudo Label Distillation (LPLD) loss within the Mean-Teacher based SFOD framework. This novel approach is designed to leverage the proposals from Region Proposal Network (RPN), which potentially encompasses hard-to-detect objects in unfamiliar domains. Initially, we extract HPL using a standard pseudo-labeling technique and mine a set of Low-confidence Pseudo Labels (LPL) from proposals generated by RPN, leaving those that do not overlap significantly with HPL. These LPL are further refined by leveraging class-relation information and reducing the effect of inherent noise for the LPLD loss calculation. Furthermore, we use feature distance to adaptively weight the LPLD loss to focus on LPL containing a larger foreground area. Our method outperforms previous SFOD methods on four cross-domain object detection benchmarks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our LPLD loss leads to effective adaptation by reducing false negatives and facilitating the use of domain-invariant knowledge from the source model. Code is available at https://github.com/junia3/LPLD.
InternalInspector $I^2$: Robust Confidence Estimation in LLMs through Internal States
Despite their vast capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle with generating reliable outputs, frequently producing high-confidence inaccuracies known as hallucinations. Addressing this challenge, our research introduces InternalInspector, a novel framework designed to enhance confidence estimation in LLMs by leveraging contrastive learning on internal states including attention states, feed-forward states, and activation states of all layers. Unlike existing methods that primarily focus on the final activation state, InternalInspector conducts a comprehensive analysis across all internal states of every layer to accurately identify both correct and incorrect prediction processes. By benchmarking InternalInspector against existing confidence estimation methods across various natural language understanding and generation tasks, including factual question answering, commonsense reasoning, and reading comprehension, InternalInspector achieves significantly higher accuracy in aligning the estimated confidence scores with the correctness of the LLM's predictions and lower calibration error. Furthermore, InternalInspector excels at HaluEval, a hallucination detection benchmark, outperforming other internal-based confidence estimation methods in this task.
LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models
When answering questions, LLMs can convey not only an answer, but a level of confidence about the answer being correct. This includes explicit confidence markers (e.g. giving a numeric score) as well as implicit markers, like an authoritative tone or elaborating with additional knowledge. For LLMs to be trustworthy knowledge sources, the confidence they convey should match their actual expertise; however, most current models tend towards overconfidence. To calibrate both implicit and explicit confidence markers, we introduce a pragmatic, listener-aware finetuning method (LACIE) that models the listener, considering not only whether an answer is right, but whether it will be accepted by a listener. We cast calibration as preference optimization, creating data via a two-agent game, where a speaker model's outputs are judged by a simulated listener. We then finetune three LLMs (Mistral-7B, Llama3-8B, Llama3-70B) with LACIE, and show that the resulting models are better calibrated w.r.t. a simulated listener. Crucially, these trends transfer to human listeners, helping them correctly predict model correctness: we conduct a human evaluation where annotators accept or reject an LLM's answers, finding that training with LACIE results in 47% fewer incorrect answers being accepted while maintaining the same level of acceptance for correct answers. Furthermore, LACIE generalizes to another dataset, resulting in a large increase in truthfulness on TruthfulQA when trained on TriviaQA. Our analysis indicates that LACIE leads to a better confidence separation between correct and incorrect examples. Qualitatively, we find that a LACIE-trained model hedges more and implicitly signals certainty when it is correct by using an authoritative tone or including details. Finally, LACIE finetuning leads to an emergent increase in model abstention (e.g. saying "I don't know") for answers that are likely wrong.
SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationales
Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.
When Quantization Affects Confidence of Large Language Models?
Recent studies introduced effective compression techniques for Large Language Models (LLMs) via post-training quantization or low-bit weight representation. Although quantized weights offer storage efficiency and allow for faster inference, existing works have indicated that quantization might compromise performance and exacerbate biases in LLMs. This study investigates the confidence and calibration of quantized models, considering factors such as language model type and scale as contributors to quantization loss. Firstly, we reveal that quantization with GPTQ to 4-bit results in a decrease in confidence regarding true labels, with varying impacts observed among different language models. Secondly, we observe fluctuations in the impact on confidence across different scales. Finally, we propose an explanation for quantization loss based on confidence levels, indicating that quantization disproportionately affects samples where the full model exhibited low confidence levels in the first place.
A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their confidence and calibrating them across different tasks can help mitigate risks and enable LLMs to produce better generations. There has been a lot of recent research aiming to address this, but there has been no comprehensive overview to organize it and outline the main lessons learned. The present survey aims to bridge this gap. In particular, we outline the challenges and we summarize recent technical advancements for LLM confidence estimation and calibration. We further discuss their applications and suggest promising directions for future work.
When Does Confidence-Based Cascade Deferral Suffice?
Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.
Randomized Gaussian Process Upper Confidence Bound with Tighter Bayesian Regret Bounds
Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter beta is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying beta. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.
Halton Scheduler For Masked Generative Image Transformer
Masked Generative Image Transformers (MaskGIT) have emerged as a scalable and efficient image generation framework, able to deliver high-quality visuals with low inference costs. However, MaskGIT's token unmasking scheduler, an essential component of the framework, has not received the attention it deserves. We analyze the sampling objective in MaskGIT, based on the mutual information between tokens, and elucidate its shortcomings. We then propose a new sampling strategy based on our Halton scheduler instead of the original Confidence scheduler. More precisely, our method selects the token's position according to a quasi-random, low-discrepancy Halton sequence. Intuitively, that method spreads the tokens spatially, progressively covering the image uniformly at each step. Our analysis shows that it allows reducing non-recoverable sampling errors, leading to simpler hyper-parameters tuning and better quality images. Our scheduler does not require retraining or noise injection and may serve as a simple drop-in replacement for the original sampling strategy. Evaluation of both class-to-image synthesis on ImageNet and text-to-image generation on the COCO dataset demonstrates that the Halton scheduler outperforms the Confidence scheduler quantitatively by reducing the FID and qualitatively by generating more diverse and more detailed images. Our code is at https://github.com/valeoai/Halton-MaskGIT.
POCO: 3D Pose and Shape Estimation with Confidence
The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.
Nonparametric extensions of randomized response for private confidence sets
This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.
High-Resolution Image Inpainting with Iterative Confidence Feedback and Guided Upsampling
Existing image inpainting methods often produce artifacts when dealing with large holes in real applications. To address this challenge, we propose an iterative inpainting method with a feedback mechanism. Specifically, we introduce a deep generative model which not only outputs an inpainting result but also a corresponding confidence map. Using this map as feedback, it progressively fills the hole by trusting only high-confidence pixels inside the hole at each iteration and focuses on the remaining pixels in the next iteration. As it reuses partial predictions from the previous iterations as known pixels, this process gradually improves the result. In addition, we propose a guided upsampling network to enable generation of high-resolution inpainting results. We achieve this by extending the Contextual Attention module to borrow high-resolution feature patches in the input image. Furthermore, to mimic real object removal scenarios, we collect a large object mask dataset and synthesize more realistic training data that better simulates user inputs. Experiments show that our method significantly outperforms existing methods in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. More results and Web APP are available at https://zengxianyu.github.io/iic.
Deep Neural Networks are Easily Fooled: High Confidence Predictions for Unrecognizable Images
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently been achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of pattern-recognition tasks, most notably visual classification problems. Given that DNNs are now able to classify objects in images with near-human-level performance, questions naturally arise as to what differences remain between computer and human vision. A recent study revealed that changing an image (e.g. of a lion) in a way imperceptible to humans can cause a DNN to label the image as something else entirely (e.g. mislabeling a lion a library). Here we show a related result: it is easy to produce images that are completely unrecognizable to humans, but that state-of-the-art DNNs believe to be recognizable objects with 99.99% confidence (e.g. labeling with certainty that white noise static is a lion). Specifically, we take convolutional neural networks trained to perform well on either the ImageNet or MNIST datasets and then find images with evolutionary algorithms or gradient ascent that DNNs label with high confidence as belonging to each dataset class. It is possible to produce images totally unrecognizable to human eyes that DNNs believe with near certainty are familiar objects, which we call "fooling images" (more generally, fooling examples). Our results shed light on interesting differences between human vision and current DNNs, and raise questions about the generality of DNN computer vision.