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0 | 2016 | 12.0 | 0 | This post is part of Polyarchy, an independent blog produced by the political reform program at New America, a Washington think tank devoted to developing new ideas and new voices. Imagine you are an otherwise healthy 30-something who starts feeling weird. You are sometimes short of breath. You get migraines. Your feet start to swell a little. But otherwise, everything seems fine. You go to the doctor. The doctor runs some tests. She tells you, It's probably nothing, but these could be signs of a coming heart attack. You push for more certainty, but the doctor tells you she's not sure. The human body is a complex system. You're young and otherwise pretty healthy. There could be plenty of other explanations for what you're feeling. But it is a little worrying. So just to be on the safe side, maybe you should reduce the stress in your life and eat a healthier diet. What would you do? If you're a sensible person, you'd probably err on the side of precaution. Sure, it might be nothing to worry about, and the likelihood of a heart attack in your 30s might be low. But even a low chance is a low chance of something possibly fatal. Why take a chance, especially when the recommendations — less stress, healthier diet — are good for you either way? I offer this parable as a way of thinking about the debate that's emerged over the past two weeks in response to Amanda Taub's New York Times article profiling new findings by Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk — findings that raise alarms about the fact that younger people have, over time, become less and less likely to say in surveys that it is "essential" to live in a democracy. Rather than share the sense of alarm, however, several critics have jumped on Foa and Mounk for misinterpreting the data and generating unnecessary panic. Political scientist Erik Voeten, for example, argued that their analysis is misleading: "The article by Mounk and Foa does document some small shifts in opinion on related issues. But these aren't nearly as dramatic as the New York Times graph suggests." Similarly, Wonkblog's Jeff Guo reanalyzed the data and argued that it is "far less alarming than it seems." Foa and Mounk have responded, drawing on more analysis from their forthcoming Journal of Democracy article, which also documents increasing support among young people for "a strong leader" and rising support for extremism. Voeten, however, remains unimpressed, and now has more charts here suggesting the shifts are far less significant than Foa and Mounk make them out to be. "And," he argues, "it's dangerous too to tell the world that people are now ready to accept nondemocratic governance." For those who want to argue over how to interpret the data, you should follow the hyperlinks above. There are very reasonable points of disagreement. I don't have much to add to that debate here, other than to observe that it's very rare that data is unambiguous about important societal shifts before those shifts actually occur. When the data is unambiguous, it is almost always too late to do anything. The only sure sign of having a heart attack is, well, having a heart attack. Similarly, the only sure sign of a democratic collapse is, well, a democratic collapse. And whatever you think of the data analysis, there is also a mounting series of actual real-world election results that are hard to explain if support for liberal democracy is thriving. In deciding how seriously to take these findings, it's also worth asking what we would do differently if we took Foa and Mounk's findings seriously. How would we collectively respond? And what would be the consequences? For one, we'd probably invest in a lot more civic education, so that the next generation learns the basics of liberal democracy and understands why it's a better system than authoritarian rule. This seems like a good idea regardless. Similarly, we might collectively invest considerable resources in making a strong public case for liberal democracy. We might also try to figure out ways to make our public institutions do more outreach to citizens to make sure they feel engaged in their democracy, and think hard about building up intermediary institutions that help people feel as though their voices are represented and taken seriously. Again, these seem like things we should be doing regardless, like reducing stress or improving the health of our diets. In my heart attack parable, if the doctor had told you that the only way to prevent a future heart attack would be to give up your job and your social life and spend the next year on strict bed rest eating only kale and chia seed salads, you might want to be a little more certain that you really were at high risk for a heart attack. After all, taking the risk seriously would impose a heavy cost on you. Other recent crises offer some examples of cases where key decision-makers did ignore warning signs, because taking those signs seriously would have imposed significant costs on them. For example, in the housing bubble of the mid-2000s, warnings were ignored because the financial industry had staked considerable investments and product lines on the myth that housing values would go up forever. To admit that housing was overvalued and that securitized mortgages were riskier than advertised would have cost investment banks dearly. But eventually, reality caught up with them, and the resulting damage was far worse than it would have been if we had paid attention to the early warning signs. Similarly, many carbon-intensive industries and fossil fuel producers pushed back on findings of climate change because taking those findings seriously would force significant changes in their industries. As a result, these industries funded doubt and uncertainty. The problem has since gotten much worse, and it has become harder to take effective action. The early scientists may have been alarmist. But we'd be in much better shape if we had listened to them. I would be more comforted if I could be certain that Voeten is right and Foa and Mounk are wrong. Maybe there is indeed nothing to worry about. But given the risks, as well as the recent string of election results, I'd rather err on the side of caution. Like the threat of a heart attack, the threat of autocracy or military rule replacing liberal democracy is pretty serious, and very difficult to recover from. I don't want to take a chance. Especially when the preventive medicine consists of things we should probably be doing anyway. | [
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1 | 2016 | 10.0 | 0 | The Indianapolis Colts made Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in NFL history this offseason with a five-year, $122-million contract with $89 million guaranteed. However, they're already finding that Luck's contract is inhibiting their ability to address weaknesses on other parts of the roster, particularly on defense. On Friday, Colts GM Ryan Grigson, who is under fire for the Colts 1-3 start, said that it's difficult to build up the team's defense with Luck making so much money. According to Keefer, Grigson did point out that the Colts still have young talent they're hoping to develop on defense. However, blaming Luck's contract — which the Colts gave him — for having a weak defense (30th in defensive DVOA) is not accurate. As others have pointed out, last year's Denver Broncos paid Peyton Manning $15 million in base salary while also boasting an elite defense. Luck also takes up $18.4 million against the salary cap this year, less than $1 million more than Manning did a year ago ($17.5 million). Much of this comes from drafting successfully, which the Colts have not done as well as elite teams like the Broncos or the Patriots, for instance. Now, with the Colts handcuffed to Luck's contract, drafting is going to become especially important, as will the use of whatever money they have in free agency. It's certainly possible to build a good defense with a high-paid quarterback, but if the Colts felt that paying Luck such a high sum of money would be difficult, perhaps they should have reconsidered what the final numbers.
The highest-paid player on all 32 NFL teams | [
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2 | 2018 | 1.0 | 0 | DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump denied a report on Friday that he had ordered Special Counsel Robert Mueller fired last June, calling it “fake news”. The New York Times reported on Thursday that Trump backed down from his order after the White House counsel threatened to resign rather than follow his directive, citing four people told of the matter. “Fake news, folks, fake news,” Trump told reporters in Davos, when asked about the report. Reporting by Steve Holland | [
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3 | 2019 | 6.0 | 0 | PARIS (Reuters) - Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy published a new memoir on Thursday but was quick to dismiss speculation he might return to politics to rescue his old center-right party, which has shed support since President Emmanuel Macron stormed to power. Entitled “Passions”, the autobiography documents Sarkozy’s rise to power, while hurling barbs at some of his former allies, including his prime minister Francois Fillon. During his time in office from 2007-2012, Sarkozy earned the nickname “President Bling-Bling” for his brash style and close association with tycoons and celebrities. While at the Elysee, he met and married former model Carla Bruni. “Passions” is released as France’s center-right fights for survival two years after President Emmanuel Macron’s election win dynamited the political landscape. Sarkozy’s old party, Les Republicains, is locked in infighting and struggling to find direction, squeezed by Macron’s centrist party and the far right. “The book is a political one, it does not announce my return,” Sarkozy told magazine Le Point. “I neither want nor can get involved in a partisan debate. That would sew confusion and division. There is no need for that. It would be misplaced.” Nonetheless, each new appearance by the last unifying figure of the French right is closely followed - fearfully by those wary of the return of a big-name rival, and hopefully by those who long for Sarkozy’s political reincarnation. Sarkozy has retired twice from politics: the first time after he lost his re-election bid in 2012. He returned to lead his party in 2014 only to quit again after he failed to win his party’s ticket to run for president in 2017. Les Republicains are again without a leader after Laurent Wauquiez stepped down following the party’s dismal showing in May’s European election. Even if Sarkozy were to return to frontline politics, he would struggle to put to one side multiple investigations, including into the financing of his re-election bid. This month he learnt he must stand trial on charges of corruption and influence peddling in relation to allegations that he offered a judge a promotion in return for information on a parallel investigation. Sarkozy has denied any wrongdoing. Reporting by Simon Carraud; Writing by Richard Lough; Editing by Luke Baker and Hugh Lawson | [
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4 | 2016 | 1.0 | 0 | Paris Hilton arrived at LAX Wednesday dressed to pay her last respects to her uncle Monty Brinson. Paris flew in from Switzerland especially for the funeral of Brinson, who used to be married to her aunt Kim Richards. Monty died Sunday after a long battle with cancer ... and the loss is obviously hitting Paris hard. She posted a picture collage with Monty calling him an "incredible man with such a huge heart." R.I.P. | [
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5 | 2019 | 6.0 | 0 | BERLIN, June 17 (Reuters) - ECB board member Benoit Coeure said in an interview published on Monday that if the ECB decided cutting rates was the best option, it would have to consider what effect negative rates would have on banks and whether tiering was needed. A so-called tiered deposit rate would mean banks are exempted in part from paying the ECB’s 0.40 percent annual charge on their excess reserves, boosting their profits as they struggle with an unexpected growth slowdown “We would have to consider whether a tiering system is needed,” Coeure said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Today the prevailing view in the Governing Council is that it is not, but we also agree that it deserves further reflection.” Reporting by Michelle Martin
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6 | 2019 | 6.0 | 0 | CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan authorities have arrested six members of the country’s military and police forces over the weekend, according to relatives of the detainees and human rights activists, as President Nicolas Maduro seeks to weed out dissent. Air Force Brigade General Miguel Sisco Mora was arrested Friday afternoon in a parking lot in Guatire, some 40 kilometers (25 miles) east of the capital Caracas, his daughter Stephanie Sisco said. Navy Corvette Captain Rafael Costa was detained on Friday in nearby Guarenas, according to his wife Waleska Perez. “We demand that the government provide us with information about his whereabouts,” Stephanie Sisco wrote on Twitter on Saturday. The arrests come nearly two months after a failed uprising against Maduro called by opposition leader Juan Guaido, the head of the opposition-controlled National Assembly who in January invoked the constitution to assume a rival interim presidency and has called on the armed forces to join his cause. They also come on the heels of a visit to Venezuela by U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet, who on Friday called on Maduro to release prisoners arrested for peacefully protesting. Maduro, whose 2018 re-election has been widely denounced as illegitimate, said he would take the U.N.’s concerns seriously. Human rights group Penal Forum had previously said that two retired Air Force colonels had been arrested in Caracas on Friday afternoon while two high ranking officials from Venezuela’s CICPC forensic police unit were arrested in Guatire, according to human rights lawyer Tamara Suju. Neither Venezuela’s Information Ministry nor the Chief Prosecutor’s office responded to requests for comment on the six detentions on Sunday. According to Penal Forum, some 700 people are detained for political reasons in Venezuela, including about 100 members of the military. Maduro’s government has denied it holds political prisoners, and frequently accuses the opposition of fomenting violence. Maduro refers to Guaido as a puppet of the United States seeking to oust him in a coup. Reporting by Vivian Sequera; Writing by Luc Cohen; Editing by Phil Berlowitz | [
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7 | 2018 | 5.0 | 0 | If only every day could be like this. You can’t put your finger on why: Maybe you had just the right amount of sleep. Maybe the stars are somehow aligned in your favor. Whatever the reason, you’re cooking on gas. Hours fly by like minutes, you’re feeling great, and before you know it it’s 5:30 pm and your to-do list is done. This feeling of ‘flow’ or being ‘in the zone’ is something that most of us have experienced at some point or other—although not as often as we might like. It’s a mental state that elite athletes seem to have at their beck and call. For us mere mortals, though, it hardly ever shows up when we need it. Since the psychologist Mihály Csíkszentmihályi first described the zone (which he called ‘flow’) in 1975, neuroscientists have been trying to figure out what it is and how to make it show up on demand. Yet as they close in on the secrets of the zone, another truth has emerged: What we think of as the zone is actually one of many mental states that a person can be in, each of which works for a particular kind of thinking. Here’s how to master not just one of them, but several. The Flow ZoneTo understand when other states might work better, it makes sense to first consider what we know about this, the original ‘zone.' One thing we definitely know is that it feels great: Csíkszentmihályi describes it as the ‘optimal experience’ in which we can achieve true happiness. One explanation for why it happens—and why it feels so good—is that it represents a perfect match between activity in brain networks involved in attention and the reward circuitry, which process pleasure. When different networks synchronize their activity—like two pendulums swinging in time—it makes the business of thinking run a little more smoothly, which explains why this particular zone feels effortless when you’re in it. Even Csíkszentmihályi admits, however, that it’s not easy to achieve. “Flow is difficult to maintain for any length of time without at least momentary interruptions,” he wrote—and that was in the 1970s, before smartphones came along and took what was left of our attention span. So how best to get into the flow? One suggestion is that, rather than screwing up your eyes and trying to force yourself to concentrate, it might work better to do the opposite: Take your foot off the mental gas a little. This finding came out of brain imaging experiments by cognitive neuroscientists Mike Esterman and Joe DeGutis of the Boston Attention and Learning Lab in Massachusetts. They measured activity in the default mode network (DMN) a collection of brain regions that gear up when we are not thinking of anything in particular. They compared this to activity in the dorsal attention network, which keeps us focused on one thing, and watched how the two fluctuated over time when people were asked to do a boring, repetitive task. Surprisingly, they found that the best way to sustain concentration wasn’t to cut out DMN activity altogether, but to allow it to carry on as a low-level background hum. In real terms, that means keeping your mind on a long leash: letting it wander a little, before gently bringing it back to heel. "If you're devoting all of your resources to a task you will likely be fighting your natural tendency to mind wander. This could actually make sustaining attention more effortful and challenging. If you try too hard you ay actually perform worse work over time," DeGutis says. No matter how much you love your work, paying attention for long periods is hard mental work. By relaxing a little, it makes it easier to find the crucial balance of effort and enjoyment that nudges us into the flow. Rather than trying so hard that we set ourselves up to fail, the solution could simply be to stop beating ourselves up. More from Tonic: The Slow ZoneTime doesn’t only fly when you’re in the flow. It also flies when a deadline is heading your way and you haven’t quite hit your stride. If time is running short and the flow feels a million miles away, all is not lost. You still have time to master the slow zone. For better or worse, strong emotions distract us from the passage of time, giving the illusion that it is zipping past unusually quickly. If it’s too difficult to take the emotion out of the equation (that deadline is coming whether you like it or not), the next best thing is to change the way your brain processes the passage of time, to mentally buy yourself a little more. It sounds too good to be true, but Marc Wittmann, a psychologist at the Institute for Frontier Areas in Psychology and Mental Health in Freiburg, Germany, and author of Felt Time, has a couple of suggestions on how it could be done. Wittmann believes that our brains count time by tuning into the rhythms of the body—the regular ticks of our heartbeat, breathing and so on. He calls this ‘body time’ and points to a region of the brain called the insula, which keeps track of our physical and emotional state, as key to this process. “My idea is that you are attending to yourself, to your bodily self, your mental self and that is how you attend to time,” Wittman says. In theory, then, if you can change the information that the insula receives, you might be able to control how you perceive time. One thing Wittman suggests is to speed up your bodily signals by exercising. When you stop, the body’s signals will gradually slow down to baseline, slowing your perception of time as it does so. “Say I go jogging for an hour and then I’m calm down but still feel very active," Wittman says. "I feel that everything is happening much slower because my body is much more activated and I feel myself much more intensely." Another option is to direct your attention to the here and now, purposefully focusing on the fine details of your surroundings, thoughts or your mental state. A 10-minute mindfulness meditation will help haul your focus back to the here and now and, by slowing your breathing rate, will also slow down your body signals. Both should make time slow to a much more manageable speed. Wittman’s experiments suggest that expert meditators are able to stretch their perception of a moment by 25 percent, which makes all that sitting around seem well worth the investment of time, no matter how little you have to play with. The 'Zoned Out' ZoneGiven all the effort we spend trying to get into the zone it might seem strange to actively try to stay out of it. But there are some mental skills that work better when you’re just a little bit away with the fairies. Creativity is one of them. Research by Evangelia Chrysikou at the University of Kansas has found that using brain stimulation to temporarily reduce activity in part of the prefrontal cortex (the region of the brain behind the forehead), increased the number of creative uses for everyday objects that people were able to come up with. This works because the job of the prefrontal cortex is to narrow down the possible thoughts and behaviors that are suitable in any given situation. This is a crucial mental shortcut because it vastly reduces the time we need to make decisions about what to do or say next. The downside—at least for our creative juices—is that it also reduces the scope of our ideas, making blue sky thinking that much more difficult. So ideally, the right zone to come up with new ideas is one in which activity in the prefrontal cortex is dialled down a little—a state known as transient hypofrontality. “It’s about using the right tool for the right task. If you want to look for ideas then hypofrontal zoning out will help you,” Chrysikou says. There is more than one way to reduce activity in the prefrontal cortex. Tiredness works particularly well, so working when you are naturally at your least alert (morning for night owls, late in the day for morning folk and after lunch for just about everybody) is definitely worth a try. A boozy drink does something similar, according to actual studies on drunk students. And if all else fails, sitting in a quiet and/or dark room can’t help but set the mind wandering to who knows where. However you manage it, it’s worth remembering that while mindfulness is all the rage at the moment, when you want to think creatively, mindlessness is a much better tool for the job. Go on, zone out—your brain will thank you. But remember to come back into the room at some point to make sure that your ideas aren't too bonkers. "To decide which idea works best, prefrontal involvement is necessary," Chrysikou says. The Cramming ZoneThere’s nothing like a deadline to focus the mind. It’s almost what the fight/flight response was designed for: A short burst of adrenaline narrows focus to help you ignore everything except the life-and-death task at hand. The trouble is, if a period of stress goes on too long, or happens too often, the whole system breaks down, focus scatters, and takes your ability to concentrate with it. This is partly because high doses of stress hormones, particularly noradrenaline, interferes with focus by binding to sites in the prefrontal cortex, stopping it from working effectively. Another job of the prefrontal cortex is to help us resist impulses that aren’t necessarily helpful for our long-term goals, which explains why stress can leave you mainlining down tea and biscuits when you should be doing some work. So, what to do when you are stressed and distracted but need to focus now? One option is—strangely—to make whatever you are doing more difficult to concentrate on. According to load theory, the brainchild of psychologist Nilli Lavie at University College London, the brain only has a limited amount of processing power to use on making sense of the world around us. Her experiments have shown that if you add deliberate distractions to what you are trying to concentrate on (flashing images, colorful borders, background noise) it can actually help you focus. This is because processing these distractions uses up the brain’s processing power, leaving no room to process either external distractions—or your own internal excuses. This post is partially adapted from My Plastic Brain: One woman’s yearlong journey to discover if science can improve her mind (Prometheus Books, 2018). Sign up for our newsletter to get the best of Tonic delivered to your inbox weekly. | [
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8 | 2016 | 5.0 | 0 | Google I/O, the company's big developer conference, kicks off today (May 18). It's a showcase for its newest updates on Android, virtual reality, artificial intelligence and more. (And a chance to bury last year's less-successful launches.) It should be interesting. Here's how you can watch it: With Google, on its YouTube livestream. With Google, on its YouTube livestream in virtual reality, if you have one of its Cardboard devices. VR you ready? Watch the #io16 keynote live on @YouTube 360 this Wed 10AM PT. https://t.co/eZ3yrQCfK0 pic.twitter.com/h5ppO9sVWe Or, best of all, with Recode! Join us at 10 am PT, 1 pm ET, 6 pm in London and 1 am (May 19) in Hong Kong for the keynote kick-off with our liveblog, where we pledge to be entertaining and insightful. And follow our coverage throughout the week for an insider's look at the search giant's next big steps. This article originally appeared on Recode.net. | [
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9 | 2017 | 3.0 | 0 | China is dismissing unfavorable media reports as fake news because that’s what Trump does China is dismissing unfavorable media reports as fake news because that’s what Trump does In his short political career, Donald Trump has made a habit of dismissing unfavorable media reports as “fake news.” Now it seems Beijing is taking a page from his playbook, using the term to attempt to discredit foreign media reports on Thursday that claimed a prominent human rights lawyer was tortured in government custody. Experts told VICE News that Chinese state media’s adoption of the term appears to directly borrow from the U.S. president. Referring to the state-run Xinhua news agency report, Zhang Baohui, a political scientist at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University, said that “Xinhua’s usage of this term should be attributed to Trump.” China is just the latest country to adopt Trump’s favorite buzzword to discredit unfavorable reports; Russia and Iran have also begun using the term to dismiss critical coverage. The term “is obviously spreading among countries,” said Zhang. In his short political career, Donald Trump has made a habit of dismissing unfavorable media reports as “fake news.” Now it seems Beijing is taking a page from his playbook, using the term to attempt to discredit foreign media reports on Thursday that claimed a prominent human rights lawyer was tortured in government custody. Experts told VICE News that Chinese state media’s adoption of the term appears to directly borrow from the U.S. president. Referring to the state-run Xinhua news agency report, Zhang Baohui, a political scientist at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University, said that “Xinhua’s usage of this term should be attributed to Trump.” China is just the latest country to adopt Trump’s favorite buzzword to discredit unfavorable reports; Russia and Iran have also begun using the term to dismiss critical coverage. The term “is obviously spreading among countries,” said Zhang. Xinhua, the mouthpiece for the ruling Communist Party, published an article Thursday describing international media reports on the alleged torture of Chinese attorney Xie Yang as “nothing but cleverly orchestrated lies.” “The stories were essentially fake news,” read the article. Fake news – false online reports presented as legitimate news stories – emerged as an issue during last year’s U.S. presidential election, and the rise of deliberately misleading stories is increasingly proving to be a problem in several other countries. But the term has been gradually debased as it is used more and more by political actors seeking to discredit critical coverage or deflect uncomfortable realities. Trump has been the most high-profile adopter of the term, regularly wielding it as an insult to bash any journalism that paints his administration in an unflattering light. The most recent claim of “fake news” from the Chinese centers around the story of Xie, a 45-year-old attorney who has represented clients in many politically sensitive cases. He was detained in the Chinese province of Hunan in July 2015 at the start of an ongoing crackdown on human rights lawyers and activists, and has yet to be released. Late last year reports emerged, sourced to transcripts of interviews with Xie’s lawyers, alleging that he had been subjected to threats and violence in custody – with the aim of forcing him to confess to political crimes. Xie’s claims were reported by outlets such as the The New York Times – regularly accused by Trump of peddling “fake news” – and The Guardian, which said that while the allegations could not be verified, they were consistent with previously documented abuses in custody. The Xinhua article Thursday reported that an “independent team” set up by officials to investigate the torture reports had interviewed Xie and his fellow inmates and established that the alleged abuses did not happen. It claimed the torture allegations had been cooked up by Jiang Tianyong, another prominent human rights lawyer who has been detained since visiting Xie’s relatives in November, and who it said had encouraged Xie’s wife to publicize the claims. The torture claims were designed “to cater to the tastes of Western institutions and media organizations, and to use public opinion to pressure police and smear the Chinese government,” Xinhua said. Human rights groups say that confessions to political crimes made by detained activists in China are typically made under duress. Experts contacted by VICE News said that while Chinese state media had long accused Western news outlets of bias against China, the use of the term “fake news” was a recent development. “I would argue that their use of this term seems to be influenced by Trump’s use of the term to discredit major Western media outlets,” said Patrick Poon, a Hong Kong-based researcher for Amnesty International. According to the Network of Chinese Human Rights Defenders, Xie has been indicted on charges of “inciting subversion of state power,” and “disrupting court order.” Xie’s lawyer, Chen Jiangang, told Reuters Thursday that his client’s account of torture was genuine, saying that Xie had made the same claims to him. | [
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10 | 2019 | 5.0 | 0 | Elizabeth Warren is giving people a new reason to pick up their phones when a call comes in from an unknown number: She might be on the line. It’s a way for the Massachusetts Democrat to thank her backers. It’s also a savvy political strategy to highlight and spread her grassroots support. Warren ignited a viral moment over the weekend when she replied to a tweet from comedian Ashley Nicole Black asking whether the 2020 candidate, whose 2020 mantra is that she “has a plan for that,” has a plan for her love life. “DM me and let’s figure this out,” Warren, seemingly out of nowhere, replied. I am deceased. And ready to welcome new love in my life. And then get our new pres elected. #shehasaplan pic.twitter.com/3n44dpnPnJ Warren apparently followed up with a phone call, Black said Monday on Twitter. “Guess who’s crying and shaking and just talked to Elizabeth Warren on the phone?!?!?” she wrote. Black isn’t the only one Warren is calling — she’s making a habit of dialing many of her supporters, and “Elizabeth Warren called me” is turning into a meme. Do a quick scan of Twitter and for months, Warren supporters have been popping up expressing their joy and surprise that they’ve received a call from the senator herself. AM I DEAD. DID I DIE. UPDATE: I JUST TALKED TO ELIZABETH WARREN ON THE PHONE https://t.co/nUqJ5rvVy5 ELIZABETH WARREN CALLED ME AND I MISSED THE CALLSHE LEFT ME A VERY NICE VOICEMAIL, SHE IS THE REAL DEAL This strategy isn’t totally new. In February, Warren announced that she would swear off high-dollar fundraisers and phone calls with wealthy donors during the 2020 Democratic primary. In a Medium post announcing the decision, she said she wanted to make sure “everybody who supports my campaign is treated equally, regardless of how much they can afford to give.” Some critics emerged, arguing that such a maneuver was a risky disarmament against a well-funded Republican machine. Some suggested it might be a way for her to explain lower-than-expected fundraising. The New York Times reported that the decision was controversial even within her campaign. But Warren has stuck with it. What Warren is doing here is pretty straightforward: When a small-dollar donor gives money to her campaign through her website, they’re asked for some basic information, including their name, address, and phone number. That information comes in and her campaign picks out donors for her to call and thank. Her campaign has put out videos of her making the calls, of which it says she has made hundreds. She generally calls in the evenings, though sometimes it’s at other times of the day, and speaks with people for a few minutes. For most candidates, “call time” means calling wealthy donors and asking for money. Not me. I’m spending “call time” thanking small-dollar, grassroots donors who give what they can. Chip in what you can, and you might get a call from me to say thank you. Link in bio. A post shared by Elizabeth Warren (@elizabethwarren) on Apr 29, 2019 at 6:51am PDT What makes this feel more organic and effective is the declarations of the people she’s calling announcing what’s happened and expressing their excitement. A lot of them are doing it on social media, and chances are those people are also telling their family and friends about getting a call from Liz. “It’s guerrilla marketing in a way — the humblebragging from supporters about getting a call feels organic and lends credibility to her claim that she’s prioritizing grassroots supporters. It emphasizes her relatability and down-to-earth nature, and generates viral moments,” Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run for Something, an organization that supports young candidates running for office, told me. One person wrote a diary post for Daily Kos talking about the Warren call experience. Litman added that beyond the candidate, and sometimes even more so, the best messengers to most voters are their friends and family. “[Warren] is arming folks with personal anecdotes to convince friends and family, and social media lets those moments spread far and wide,” she said. A Democratic strategist working for a rival 2020 Democratic campaign concurred. “It’s super savvy and a clever way of turning the fundraising process, which justifiably seems cold and cynical to most voters, into a way to showcase her authenticity and the grassroots energy behind her campaign,” the strategist said in an email. Idk if y’all heard but Elizabeth Warren called me today to thank me for supporting her campaign and my WHOLE LIFE WAS MADE! @ewarren you are the absolute COOLEST! pic.twitter.com/9ODwffMG9A Oh my god. Elizabeth Warren called me to thank me for donating to her campaign a whole month ago and I just found out I missed her call. I just listened to her voicemail right now. WHYYYY. Please call me back @ewarren! I’m gonna donate again tomorrow OMG. I was in meeting this morning when @ewarren called & left this message to thank me for contributing to her campaign. I'm in shock. Thanks for the call, Senator, and #ImAllIn. #LetsDoThis. #Warren2020. pic.twitter.com/w6ylSZcnCQ Warren’s calls have also gotten others online wondering why they haven’t received a call. And it could be inspiring FOMO and getting others to donate in hopes of hearing from the senator. She called me. It was such a shock! But completely fun and genuine Wait, why hasn't @SenWarren called me yet? I'm a COMPLETE MESS. 13-40s: my crush hasn’t called me 40+: neither my crush nor Elizabeth Warren has called me This is also a way for Warren to remind people about her commitment to steering clear of high-dollar fundraisers and calls to major donors. She has staked much of her career — and her campaign — on casting herself as being on the side of the little guy and up against Wall Street, big money, and corporate interests. She’s hosting “pop-up” meetings where a select group of supporters in certain areas get invited to meet her in small settings. She’s done those events in places such as Denver, Brooklyn and Harlem, and Alabama. Those pop-up gatherings, along with the calls, reiterate her no-big-money point. “It’s definitely cheesy, but in a way that feels true to her and that over the long haul will absolutely pay off,” Litman said. Since announcing her presidential bid, Warren has rolled out a litany of policy proposals on a wide range of issues, including abortion, tech consolidation, agriculture reform, opioids, and the revolving door at the Pentagon. She is outpacing her fellow 2020 contenders in terms of policy. And in calls with supporters, she appears to be reminding them of it. (When supporters don’t pick up, she leaves a message.) And I thought this day couldn't get any better! I had a great convo w/ @ewarren about abortion rights, gerrymandering & the stacking of state legislatures n AL, GA, etc. She LISTENED to me talk about how I feel helpless as a CA voter to help my sisters in other states... On the phone with Elizabeth Warren who called to thank us for our campaign support, AND, we talked a few minutes about child care policy. VERY IMPRESSED WITH HER. pic.twitter.com/Qe6MzKfIhg Jessica Ellis, a Los Angeles-based writer whom Warren called on Monday, told me that Warren thanked her for her support and discussed her proposed wealth tax, which would put a small tax on Americans with a net worth of more than $50 million. She also talked about her student debt plan, which would cancel debt for millions of Americans and invest in debt-free college. (She says she would pay for that with the wealth tax.) “She emphasized that she really, truly believed she could win, and that if she does, she knows she can address our worst problems,” Ellis said. Ellis told Warren she first saw her on The Daily Show in 2009, years before she was elected to the Senate, when Ellis was watching with her mother. “We both said, ‘That woman needs to be president,’” Ellis said. “She laughed and told me to send my mom her best.” update: it wasn’t | [
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11 | 2019 | 6.0 | 0 | (Reuters) - The success of Hudson’s Bay Co Executive Chairman Richard Baker’s $1.3 billion bid to take the department store operator private hinges on whether an independent valuator will view the company more as a retailer and less as a real estate owner, corporate governance experts and analysts said. Much of Hudson’s Bay’s value is locked up in its real estate. Were the company to sell off some of its properties to raise cash, it could fetch more than what Baker offered, but would then be forced to pay rent to run some of its stores. Baker’s buyout consortium, which already owns 57% of Hudson’s Bay, has made a C$9.45 per share offer for the remainder of the Canadian company, a 48% premium to where the stock was trading before the announcement. However, some of the minority shareholders, including hedge fund Land & Buildings Investment Management LLC, say they value the company’s assets at between C$28 and C$33 per share. Hudson’s Bay shares ended trading on Friday at C$9.73, above the C$9.45 offer price, as investors bet on a sweetened bid. The big valuation gap is due to disagreements over how much of Hudson’s Bay’s prime real estate can be divested while keeping it operational. Selling off property raises cash but also makes it more financially burdensome for the company to rent the space for the stores it operates. As a result, it would likely close stores, and its retail footprint would begin to shrink. “There is judgment to be exercised on the valuation, which can always be challenging,” said Catherine McCall, the executive director of the Canadian Coalition for Good Governance, an organization representing institutional shareholders in Canadian public companies. Hudson’s Bay operates 39 stores under its Saks Fifth Avenue brand, 133 stores under its Saks OFF 5th brand, more than 40 stores under the Lord + Taylor banner, 90 Hudson’s Bay department stores, as well as 37 stores in Canada which the company plans to close this year under the Home Outfitters brand. Hudson’s Bay’s trophy asset is the Saks Fifth Avenue building in Manhattan, which this year completed a $250 million renovation. Hudson’s Bay’s most recent public estimate for the value of its real estate was in September 2018, when CEO Helena Foulkes pegged it at $28 per share. Baker has offered about a third of that because he argues that the company would have to all but liquidate to achieve all the real estate value. Toronto-Dominion Bank, which has been hired by a Hudson’s Bay board committee to independently evaluate the take-private deal, will recommend whether the company should accept the offer as fair, or reject it and try to negotiate further. The board committee excludes representatives of Baker’s buyout consortium and is granted power to prevent any deal, even if the prospective acquirers otherwise control the company. In an illustration of this, a special board committee sank the hopes of Nordstrom Inc’s founding family group last year to take the U.S. department store operator private, after it rejected their $8.4 billion offer. The methodology Toronto-Dominion Bank uses to value the bid for Hudson’s Bay will be key to the outcome and will be scrutinized heavily by shareholders. The bank will likely be assessing how comparable companies’ shares trade, research similar deals and consider how much a financial buyer like a private equity firm would pay, said Andrey Golubov, a professor of finance at the University of Toronto. “It’s not done just to justify the offer. That said, valuation is not a science,” Golubov said. Hudson’s Bay declined to comment, as did a spokesman for Baker’s buyout consortium. Spokespeople for TD Bank did not respond to requests for comment. Sale lease-back arrangements in which retailers sell their properties and become tenants in their stores have become increasingly popular in the last few years as the downturn in brick-and-mortar retail brought about by the rise of internet shopping has put pressure on retailers to raise cash. However, some retailers resist them because they view the rent obligation as burdensome, a stance that often attracts investor criticism. Macy’s Inc for example, another department store operator, was pressured by hedge fund Starboard Value LP three years ago to do more to cash out on its real estate. Even if Toronto-Dominion Bank blesses an offer from Baker’s consortium and the board committee negotiating a deal approves it, the acquisition still faces some hurdles. A majority of the shareholders who are not affiliated with the buyout consortium have to vote for it, accounting for about 21.5 percent of the company’s shareholder base. Opponents could still challenge the deal in court when the company seeks approval for it before a judge under the Canada Business Corporations Act. But successful legal challenges of deals that have followed the process for management buyouts outlined by the Ontario Securities Commission, as Hudson’s Bay is seeking to do, are rare. “Most of these deals get done once they get board approval and a transaction agreement gets signed,” said Jeremy Fraiberg, chair of the mergers and acquisitions group at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP. Reporting by Jessica DiNapoli and Harry Brumpton in New YorkEditing by Greg Roumeliotis and Cynthia Osterman | [
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12 | 2018 | 11.0 | 0 | Joakim Noah's model girlfriend Lais Ribeiro was so damn hot in her thong bikini in Malibu this weekend -- we barely noticed the beach was littered with a ton of HUGE stars!! Seriously ... everyone from John McEnroe to Kenny Chesney and Cindy Crawford and Rande Gerber were hanging out at Laird Hamilton's pad for a Sunday funday. But, all eyes were on Joakim and Lais ... for obvious reasons. Joakim was waived by the Knicks last month -- and while they lost to the Washington Wizards that day, Noah was having a much better time. Lais is one of the top lingerie models in the world and will be walking in the Victoria's Secret fashion show later this week. She famously rocked the $2 MILLION fantasy bra at the 2017 show in China -- which Joakim could easily afford, considering he's made more than $121 MILLION playing pro basketball. Unclear how long Joakim and Lais have been an item -- but they were reportedly spotted out clubbing back in September and have grown closer ever since. In fact, they spent Halloween together and even had themed costumes -- he was Aquaman and she was Storm. Cute! | [
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13 | 2019 | 5.0 | 0 | Jermaine Jackson is slamming Quincy Jones for removing Michael Jackson references from his orchestral show in London ... Jermaine thinks Quincy's caving to outside pressure. We got Jermaine at LAX and asked him about Quincy's decision to scrub all references to the King of Pop from his upcoming concert across the pond ... and Michael's big bro had a very stern message for the legendary producer. Quincy's orchestral show at The O2 arena in London next month was originally billed as a live performance of 3 classic MJ albums -- "Off the Wall," "Thriller" and "Bad" -- but now Quincy is calling it a "soundtrack of the 80s." As you know ... Quincy produced Michael's 3 biggest albums, and the 2 will forever be linked. Jermaine tells us it's grossly unfair for Quincy to try and distance himself from Michael. So far, Quincy isn't saying what prompted the change ... but there's been a lot of media pressure in the UK to mute Michael in the wake of "Leaving Neverland." Jermaine feels Quincy is listening to the wrong voices. BTW, the movement fizzled in the U.S. Check out our clip ... Jermaine demands Quincy to brush up on his history. | [
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14 | 2019 | 3.0 | 0 | LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May is pressing on with efforts to get her Brexit deal approved by parliament, meeting Conservative colleagues and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, her spokesman said on Thursday. May, who has offered to quit in return for the support of Conservative lawmakers for her deal, is focused on getting it through parliament, the spokesman said, adding that she continued to believe her agreement was the best available. Reporting by William James, writing by Elizabeth Piper, Editing by Kylie MacLellan | [
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15 | 2016 | 9.0 | 0 | Nancy Pelosi is getting visions of reclaiming her House gavel. In an interview published by Politico on Thursday, the House minority leader said she is becoming increasingly optimistic that the Democratic Party might take back the House of Representatives in November. They’ll need to flip 30 seats controlled by the Republicans to do so. “I thought in December I would’ve told you we’d win 20 seats, left to our own devices,” Pelosi said in an interview with Politico’s Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer. “(But) seeing the behavior of the [GOP] presidential candidates right after that when the debates [happened], I became even more optimistic because they were so pathetic. … Since then, I think anything is possible.” Most observers think Democrats are unlikely to flip the House. But Pelosi suggested a Hillary Clinton landslide might carry House Democrats to power with her. “If Hillary were to win 54-46, oh my God. It’s all over. If it's 53-47, and I think that’s in the realm of possibility ... that’s a big deal,” Pelosi told Politico. “Five or more [percentage points] is a big deal.” Pelosi’s projections might sound optimistic, but they’re not that far outside the mainstream. Last month, I spoke to Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, who offered a similar theory. Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has narrowed from late August from 8 points to around 3 points, so a 5-point win seems increasingly unlikely. But if Clinton can somehow reopen her big lead, the House really might be on the table. Here’s why. Get a district to vote for your party’s presidential nominee and your party will also probably win its House seat. That’s not an ironclad rule, but it’s a pretty good indicator — in 2012, only 6 percent of districts that voted for Barack Obama voted a Republican into the House. This is the key to understanding why Skelley thinks a 6-point Clinton win could put the House in play. That kind of national victory would likely mean 50 House districts currently controlled by Republicans would vote for Clinton — therefore suggesting they have a good shot of also going blue at the House level. Of course, a Clinton win in these 50 districts wouldn’t guarantee House Democrats will pick up all of those seats. (Many are held by powerful or longstanding Republican incumbents who are well-funded and enjoy good reputations at home.) But it does mean that Democrats could lose 40 percent of the House races in districts won by Clinton and still take back control of the House. Right now Clinton isn’t projected to win by nearly that much. Averages of all the major polling firms compiled by both RealClearPolitics and the Huffington Post currently put Her lead right around the 3-point mark; she’d need that to come up to where it was after the Democratic convention, which is unlikely but not impossible. "A 6-point lead would help create the conditions for Clinton to pull the Democrats over the finish line to take the House," Skelley says. "It doesn’t mean they would, of course, but it begins looking really possible." How does Skelley figure that a 6-point Clinton win would have Democrats winning 50 GOP-controlled House districts? His model begins by assuming that the distribution of the national popular vote margin to the congressional districts will be exactly the same in 2016 as it was in 2012. This may be best illustrated by an example: In 2012, Obama won the popular vote total by 4 percentage points. In Skelley’s model, a 4-point Clinton win would mean she’d also win and lose every congressional district by the exact same amount Obama did. (Of course, this is bound to be wrong in some places — the distribution of Clinton’s vote share certainly won’t be an exact replica of Obama’s. But since there’s no way of knowing exactly how the popular vote will vary by House district from 2012, it’s a useful gauge of what might happen.) This is why a 4-point Clinton win probably wouldn’t flip the House. Obama’s 4-point win over Romney gave him victories in just 28 congressional seats currently controlled by Republicans. That wouldn’t be enough — remember, Democrats need a full 30 to take back the House. But what happens if Clinton expands on Obama’s national vote margin? Since Skelley’s model assumes the national vote share will be evenly distributed, every additional point in the national vote total translates into an additional point for each congressional district. House seats where Democrats tied or lost in 2012 become places where they win at the presidential level in 2016. If Clinton wins by 5 points, according to Skelley, she’d be projected to win in 39 House seats now run by Republicans. That would theoretically put the House in play but would give Democrats very little margin for error. But if she wins by a full 6 points, then 50 seats slide over to the Democratic column — at least at the presidential level, and maybe for the House as well. Now, Skelley isn’t the only close election watcher who is suggesting the House really might be in play. Princeton professor and election guru Sam Wang tried to take another stab at this question by looking at the margin by which Democrats would need to win the popular vote to win the House and then trying to figure out where the popular vote currently appears to be headed. What he found should encourage Democrats. With the exception of just two elections, he found that Democrats have always won back the House when they’ve won the "two-party vote" (voting that excludes third parties): Data from mid-August suggested that they’re on track to do just that. Wang looked at results from something called the "generic ballot" — it asks voters to pick between the two parties, regardless of candidates — as well as the national presidential polling. "If the election were held today, House Democratic candidates would win the popular vote by 5 to 8 percent," Wang said. "Judging from the last few cycles, that level of public opinion appears to be right on the edge of being enough to give Democrats control of the House." Still, many of the current projections don’t have the Democrats riding a massive blue wave. The widely respected Cook Political Report, for instance, thinks the party is only on track to nab an additional 16 seats. The Cook Political Report thinks only 33 seats are vulnerable at all, meaning Democrats would have to win 90 percent of all of the competitive races to pull this off. In late August, Emory professor Alan Abramowitz released a model for predicting House races based on the "fundamentals" of the race, including the popularity of the two parties and the number of seats at stake. He found that Democrats only have a 15 percent chance of taking back the House. Similarly, the New York Times’s Nate Cohn argues that there just don’t seem to be enough gettable seats for Democrats. He notes that Democrats’ ability to win back the House in 2006 was made possible by the fact that 21 Republican seats were held in Democratic-leaning districts during that election. There are just nine such seats this year. "If Democrats are going to retake the House anytime soon, November would probably be their best shot," Cohn said in a story last week, "and as of now it’s not happening." There’s an elephant-size question hanging over all the analyses of whether a Trump implosion could give Democrats the House: What happens to "ticket splitting?" Ticket splitting refers to the voters who back different parties for Congress and the presidency in the same trip to the polls. In 2012, only a record-low 8 percent of voters did so. If that number goes up in 2016 amid a Clinton landslide, it could give congressional Republicans a buffer from a Trump catastrophe. (Current polling suggests Republican congressional candidates are much more popular than Trump, but it’s unclear how many of the party’s typical voters will actually show up on Election Day.) This is why the X-factor of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson makes these kinds of projections much more difficult. Clinton’s lead over Trump in most polls puts her about 6 points ahead, but that’s in part because of how weak Trump is — she’s normally polling around the 47 or 48 percent mark, and he’s closer to 41 or 42 percent. If Johnson gets in the neighborhood of 5 percent of the national vote, do his supporters vote for congressional Democrats? Or will they vote Republican down ballot — and make Clinton's big national lead less crucial? This is why Skelley thinks Clinton herself probably needs to win more than 50 percent of the vote to pull Democrats over the finish line. If, for instance, she’s just beating Trump by 48 to 42, then congressional Democrats might need Johnson voters to go blue down ballot, which seems unlikely. "If she’s only winning barely over 50 percent of the vote, I think it’s difficult to say with confidence that she’ll pull a lot of Democrats with her," Skelley said. "I think she needs to really win the popular vote by more than that." It’s a colossal understatement to say that the stakes are pretty darn high when it comes to control of the House. If Democrats also go on to win the Senate, winning the House would open the doors for a raft of legislative priorities over climate change, immigration, and a range of other long-held blue sky policy goals for the party. So far, most chatter around a Clinton presidency involves big plans like infrastructure reform and new Supreme Court appointments. Sweeping Congress and the presidency would transform those ambitions into a wholly different kind. But there’s another, and perhaps equally important, reason this fight is so crucial: It may be Democrats’ last shot at the House for a very, very long time. New York magazine’s Ed Kilgore explains: If Democrats do fall short of what they need to regain control of the House even as Hillary Clinton becomes president, prospects for further gains in the near term will probably not be good. The party controlling the White House almost always loses House seats in midterms (1998 and 2002 were the rare exceptions), and 2018 would be a third-term midterm for Democrats, making the odds of an anti–White House trend even stronger. Beyond that, Democrats have a well-known midterm turnout problem associated with their heavy reliance on parts of the electorate — notably young people and minorities — that rarely turn out proportionately in nonpresidential elections. As for 2020, it’s worth noting that Democrats gained only eight House seats when President Obama was reelected in 2012. Many Democrats have certainly come to despise Trump over the course of a bitter and long campaign. But if he can blunder his way into giving them control of the House of Representatives far earlier than anyone thought possible, maybe they can come to forgive him. | [
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