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THE 2015/16 NATIONAL BUDGET: MAXING OUT THE CREDIT CARD? | Inflation | Government Budget Balance
Analysis of Namibian Budget 2015/2016 by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). Analysis by IPPR researcher Rowland Brown.
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Special Briefing Report No.8
By Rowland Brown
THE 2015/16 NATIONAL BUDGET:
MAXING OUT THE CREDIT CARD?
On the 31st of March 2015, the new Minister of Finance, Calle
Schlettwein, announced the budget for the 2015/16 2017/18
financial years. The Minister announced four key priorities for
his Ministry and the Government for the budget (MTEF) period,
along with key interventions required to achieve these priorities
1. Inclusive growth:
diversifying and industrialising the economy through targeted
budgetary allocations to the priority economic sectors with
high economic growth and job creation potential;
continuous development of functional and technical skills
through increased access to tertiary education and vocational training;
developing and supporting domestic and regional value
chains in the areas of comparative and competitive advantage;
crowding-in much needed investment through private sector
and SME support programmes as well as harnessing Public
Private Partnerships (PPPs);
enhancing greater access to development finance through
the operations of domestic Development Finance Institutions
and tailor-made commercial credit offerings; and
leveraging PPPs for infrastructure development and public
2. Poverty reduction:
strengthening social safety nets in coverage and quantum
as the first line of defence against poverty for the vulnerable
members of our society;
supporting the creation of decent jobs and self-employment
opportunities in the private sector;
implementing policies that promote local access to, and ownership of resources, and nurturing the capacity to exploit the
resources profitably;
developing social security networks that are sustainable and
designing and implementing redistributive tax policies that
are pro-poor and pro-growth.
3. Wealth creation:
empowering Namibians in a manner that creates sustainable
and broad-based wealth creation;
promoting affordable and sustainable access to finance and
Democracy Report is a regular publication featuring analysis and commentary relating to the legislative agenda of the
Parliament of the Republic of Namibia. It is produced by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), PO Box 6566,
Windhoek, Namibia. Tel: +264 61 240514, Fax: +264 61 240516,info@ippr.org.na. The publication is also available as a PDF
download from http://www.ippr.org.na. Democracy Report is funded by the Embassy of Finland.
means of production, while maintaining responsible lending;
developing facilities to support SME access to finance and
mentorship programmes;
increasing the share of local ownership and value share in
the value chains across various industrial and service-oriented activities;
encouraging wealth accumulation and prudent management;
expanding the provision of basic amenities to all Namibians.
4. Service delivery, accountability and value for money:
improve service delivery by strengthening internal efficiency
of the public service sector through performance measures
continuous skills development; and
reform of public enterprises to ensure affordable, competitive,
reliable and sustainable service delivery.
While the stated priorities and focuses are, largely, commendable, the expenditure priority over the budget period appears,
in many instances, to be somewhat divergent from that stated.
However, it should be noted that the new Minister had been in
office for about 10 days before the budget speech, and thus
may not have had sufficient time, or resources, to make material
change to the expenditure focus.
The budget has undoubtedly improved over the past few years.
However much remains to be done in order to ensure it delivers the developmental reform of which it is undoubtedly capable.
With expenditure of approximately 40 percent of GDP and as the
largest single employer in the country (by an order of magnitude)
the Government can certainly drive the countrys development
forward, however this can only be achieved if a structured, focused and dynamic taxation and expenditure framework is followed. Moreover, identification of priorities is not the focus of the
budget, but rather of the various long and short term development plans, while the budget should, ideally, be the means of
funding or facilitating in the implementation of these plans.
This paper attempts to review the budget in a more in-depth
manner than that pursued by other analysts and institutions in
Namibia. It looks first at revenue, then the current expenditure
focus and ultimately the budget balance. Conclusions and recommendations are then drawn from this analysis. The purpose
of the paper is to provide greater insight into the budget, but
also provide constructive suggestions as to further improvement
The macroeconomic environment in Namibia remains positive,
with growth running at or above long-term averages for the past
five years. The same, however, cannot be said of our southern
neighbour. A notable decoupling of the Namibian and South African economies has been witnessed since 2009. Following the
global recession, the Namibian economy rapidly rebounded.
However, South Africas economy continued to languish, growing at below trend rates ever since. The structural nature of this
low-and-slow growth means that South Africa is unlikely to recover dramatically in the short term, and may well remain on
a low-growth trajectory for much of the next half decade, and
potentially, beyond. In Namibia, however, well timed countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies ensured a return to growth
and economic stability in the country, despite persistent global
Historically low interest rates, expansive Government stimulus
and the unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment into
Namibia have driven this growth, with a key focus on construction in the short term, moving toward increased mining production and logistics, particularly, longer term. Moreover, increased
wages from Government and the private sector, reduced personal income tax, cheap credit supply through low interest rates and
increasing employment have dramatically increased local household disposable income over the past two years. The outcome
of increased household disposable income is clear to be seen
in the local economy. Retail activity is booming, as witnessed
by strong growth in credit demand, vehicles sales and footfall at
local malls, not to mention strong demand increases for housing,
and municipal services.
This strong growth, however, is not without risks. The speed and
vigour of the expansion in the economy has led to a number
of macroeconomic imbalances, which if left unchecked may
destabilise the future growth prospects of the country to some
degree. While numerable in nature, the key issues at present
are: increasing demand side inflation; increased government
debt; declining international reserve levels; and rapidly increasing household debt.
Over the past few years, headline inflation has remained low,
falling dramatically over recent months as global oil prices collapsed. However, pockets of high inflation remain, particularly in
the demand side space. As most consumer goods in Namibia
are imported and sold at market rates, these items prices tend
to be driven by global factors and the local exchange rate. On
the other hand, many of the local services prices are determined
by domestic demand and supply, and as demand increases, so
do prices. This is particularly notable in the housing market, municipal utilities, electricity, schooling and transport costs, many of
which are leading overall inflation in the country. This inflation is,
however, at present hidden by falling global food and fuel prices,
but is a classic sign of an overheating economy.
Because of the expansive budget run by Government over the
past five years, the countrys debt-to-GDP ratio has increased
markedly, from around 16% of GDP in 2010, to approximately
26% of GDP in 2014. Further to this, continued deficits in the current budget mean that this is expected to increase further over
the next three years, approaching 35% of GDP by 2017. While
deficits are not a problem per se, persistent or structural deficits,
as well as sizable deficits, can be. In this regard, the Government
is starting to push the boundaries of sustainable debt levels for
the Namibian economy. This is particularly due to the fact that
the local economy is highly concentrated in a handful of sectors
and companies, and partially due to the rate of increase in local
Government debt levels.
The level of international reserves is generally of little concern
to the lay person. However, it is arguably the single most important macroeconomic indicator for the small open economy that
is Namibia. Not only are these reserves critical for maintaining
the fixed currency arrangement with the Rand, but are also illustrative of the general state of the local economy. Over the
past two years, the countrys reserve position declined notably
(particularly in hard currency terms), indicating that the country
was importing and shipping out more capital than it was exporting
and attracting. The vast majority of this imbalance derived from
merchandise trade, where a major deficit has developed. In this
regard, the country has been importing all manner of goods, with
the most prevalent being construction and mining equipment, vehicles, fuel and other consumer goods. Construction and mining
imports are generally viewed fairly favourably, in that they add to
the countrys productive capacity in the long-term, and will usually result in export growth over time. However, many of the consumer goods, particularly vehicles, fuel and consumer electronics, produce little long-term gain for the country, while requiring
foreign currency earnings to acquire.
continues to perform well, and is expected to continue to do
so through 2015 and beyond. Moreover, while imbalances are
developing, they are not yet major. From an economic stability
perspective, however, the time has no doubt arrived for more
reticence from the fiscus as current expenditure patterns are
unstable if pursued for extended periods of time. Moreover, the
strong, above trend, growth seen in the local economy signifies
that the time for counter-cyclical policy is behind us, and that the
previously counter-cyclical policy is no longer such, but heavily
pro-cyclical. The process of interest normalisation too needs to
continue. Thereafter, Namibia is likely to remain on a strong footing
and on a higher developmental base, as the construction activities
of the past few years morph into productive activity, substituting
out the fiscal and monetary stimulus and driving Namibia forward.
Chart 1: Namibia GDP
N$ Million
Household debt is the final notable imbalance starting to develop
in the local economy. While not yet critical, household debt has
increased extensively through the bottom of the interest rate cycle. As interest rates normalise, a process currently underway,
the household debt repayment burden will increase, which may
put pressure on some of the marginal borrowers. As such, we can
expect to start to see increased defaulting on loans and repayment duress. This will be further exacerbated if unemployment
increases, although it should be noted that this is not likely in the
immediate future. Similarly unlikely is that the level of increase
of non-performing loans will be dramatic or disastrous, provided
interest rates continue to normalise through the coming months.
GDP Growth (Nomainal) RHS
GDP Growth (Real) RHS
Table 1: Revenue (N$ Million)
2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18
However, due to high demand and slow supply of housing, house
price inflation and by extension, rental inflation, have also been
dramatic. House prices double every 4 to 5 years, while anecdotal evidence suggests that rental inflation is upward of 10% per
year. The inflation in house prices seen over the past decade has
been hugely positive for home owners and the banking sector.
However, should prices exceed fair value, a risk of overvaluation of banking and household sector asset values may be seen,
which may cause financial sector instability.
2008 Budget	22,640
In most economies, these imbalances would be addressed
through the tightening of monetary (and at times fiscal) policy.
However, in this regard, Namibia is somewhat hampered by the
fixed exchange rate regime it shares with South Africa, Lesotho
and Swaziland. Due to this, Namibia is unable to implement completely independent monetary policy and is required to remain
fairly close to the rates seen in the common monetary area in
order to ensure that unstable capital flows between the countries
do not occur. As such, despite the clear need for tighter monetary
policy in the country, interest rate increases have been fairly slow.
Nevertheless, the Bank of Namibia is in an interest rate hiking
cycle, having increased rates by 75 basis points, in the form of
three 25 basis point hikes, over the past 12 months.
In the current budget, revenue is forecast to increase by 11.4
percent when compared to the forecast level for 2014/15. However, this is a slight downward revision, of 0.4 percent, when
compared to the previous forecast for the current, FY15/16,
year. As it stands, total revenue for the current financial year is
expected to be N$58.4 billion.
2009 Budget	21,147 22,688
2010 Budget	22,536 20,940 26,214
2011 Budget	22,699 28,012 31,875 37,154
2012 Budget	23,244 26,853 35,420 35,257 39,672
2013 Budget	29,922 37,108 40,141 42,950 45,630
2014 Budget	37,987 40,141 52,473 58,698 66,074
2015 Budget	52,473 58,442 63,050 69,181
However, in 2014/15, revenue was estimated to have expanded by 30.7% when compared to the preceding year. This
number is almost undoubtedly over stated, however, and it
is believed that the final figure for FY14/15 will be somewhat
more moderate. As such, the actual rate of growth, should the
current forecast be realised, will be higher in 2015/16 than
forecast, due to the weakening of the base year.
Despite the aforementioned imbalances, the Namibian economy
The forecast revenue growth slowdown can, at least in part,
be attributed to a decline in expected SACU revenues, a key
source of funding for the local Government. Nevertheless, this
slowdown is viewed as a positive based on the fact that historic
forecasts are believed to be unrealistic, and conducted without
consideration for the impact on trade from the fragile global
and lacklustre South African economies.
through tough prevailing headwinds stemming from advanced
economies, given the developments in the local and global
economies and the sizable increases in Government expenditure in 2014/15, what was a counter-cyclical fiscal policy is
quick becoming pro-cyclical.
Between 2014/15 and 2015/16, tax revenue is expected to
expand by 13.7 percent, above the rate of growth of total revenue, meaning it gains a larger share of total revenue over the
period, a trend that is expected to continue over the MTEF.
In the outer MTEF years, current forecasts see growth slowing
further, to 7.9% and 9.7% for FY16/17 and FY17/18, respectively. This implies revenue of N$63.1 billion in FY16/17 and
N$69.2 billion in FY17/18. As always, these forecasts are erratic, and likely to be revised up going forward.
Chart 2: Revenue
Tax revenue can be broken down into five categories namely,
taxes on income and profits, domestic taxes on goods and
services, taxes on international trade and transactions, taxes
on property and other taxes. The three former categories make
up 99 percent of total tax revenue, with taxes on property and
other taxes making up the remaining 1 percent.
Chart 4: Tax revenue breakdown (N$ Million)
N$000000
Other taxes 318
From a revenue breakdown perspective, the vast majority of
revenue is derived from taxes, which, in 2015/16, make up 96
percent of total revenue, a ratio that remains fairly constant
through the MTEF period. Non-tax revenue represents the
vast majority of the remainder, with return on lending and equity participation, as well as grants, making up less than 0.1%
of total revenue each.
Domestic taxes on goods and services are primarily made up
of VAT receipts, which have been growing at double digit rates
for a number of years, testifying to the strength of the local
economy at the current point in time.
Chart 3: Revenue Breakdown
Chart 5: Tax revenue breakdown (N$ Million)
Levy on Fuel
Return on Capital From Ledning and Equity Participation
Emplyee medical
The current budget is expansive in every sense of the word and
in just about every aspect of the budget. From a revenue and
expenditure point of view, the current budget shows dramatic increases, coming off an already high base as a result of a strong
and on-going counter-cyclical budget introduced in 2011.
Taxes on international trade and transactions speak to SACU
receipts, which as earlier mentioned, are expected to decline going forward. Taxes on income and profit, however, remain the
It should be noted that while the previous expansionary and
counter-cyclical fiscal policy has undoubtedly helped Namibia
cornerstone of government revenue, representing approximately
43 percent of total revenue.
do not pay income tax. Thus, this social contract is weakened.
Many tax payers thus feel that they are poorly serviced by and
represented in Government, and thus that they are cornerstone
tax payers, with little real voice.
Within the sub category of taxes on income and profit, income
tax on individuals represents by far the largest single component.
From this source, Government expects to raise N$15.2 billion in
2015/16. This is a major step up from the N$8.1 billion collected
three years ago, and speaks to the major improvements seen in
the Inland Revenue department over this period.
Tax Developments:
Following a fleet of notable tax changes announced in the 2013/14
and 2014/15 budgets, the current budget was relatively quiet on
amendments, rather following through on some prior commitments on the tax front. Nevertheless, a handful of changes are to
be implemented over the coming financial year, as follows:
Withholding tax on services rendered by non-residents to be reduced from 25 percent to 10 percent
Non-mining corporate income tax to be reduced from 33 percent
to 32 percent.
Environmental taxes on carbon dioxide emission tax on motor
vehicles, incandescent light bulbs and motor vehicle tyres to be
The Value-Added Tax (VAT) threshold is to be increased from
N$200,000 to N$500,000.
Transfer duty on the sale of shares in companies and membership interest in close corporations owning residential property,
commercial property, land and mineral licences, to be introduced.
Taxes to be introduced to promote domestic value-addition in the
primary commodity and natural resources sectors
Chart 6: Taxes on Income and Profits (N$ Million)
and profits 210
The second largest component of taxes on incomes and profits
is company taxes, which represent approximately 37% of the sub
category. As has become the norm over recent years, the vast majority of this category is made up of non-mining company revenue,
as can be expected given the relatively more numerous, sizable
and profitable nature of the non-mining entities in the country visa-vis mining companies. Nevertheless, mining company tax revenue, with the exception of diamond mining, was eye-catchingly
low in 2014/15, and projected to remain so in 2015/16. At just
N$27.5 million in 2014/15 and forecast to register N$57.5 million in
2015/16, non-diamond mining companies represent just 0.4% and
0.6% of total company taxes in 2014/15 and 2015/16, respectively.
As well as these changes, much of the current focus of the Ministry appears to be improvement of tax administration. While much
progress has been made in this vein over the past three years,
more remains to be done. On the Ministrys agenda at the moment appears to be: strengthening the provisions for recovery of
tax debts; taking online, by 2016, tax returns and tax payments
heralding the full implementation of the e-filing system; and, longer term, to work towards the establishment of an Independent
Revenue Agency for Namibia.
In some ways these developments are highly positive, particularly
those focusing on improved tax administration. It is believed that
this will help to ensure that the tax payer base is widened, and that
those currently evading tax will start to contribute their fair share
towards Government operations. Moreover, these developments
are likely to reduce the transaction cost of paying tax, which at the
current point in time is fairly high due to the inefficiencies in the tax
system. Caution, however, must be exercised with regards to the
Independent Revenue Agency, as there exists a strong possibility that another National Statistics Agency type institution may be
created, where the current function is transferred out of Government with insufficient changes to personnel and processes, yielding the same poor quality service for a higher cost.
While this raises many eyebrows, at the current point in time it likely speaks to the low profitability of these companies as commodity
prices languish on the back of slowing Chinese and fragile global
economies. Moreover, these tax collections should be considered
alongside royalties paid by the mining sector, which are generally
an order of magnitude larger than the actual taxes paid. It should
be noted, however, that royalties are effectively a charge levelled
on companies that are exploiting a local resource, while corporate
taxes are taxes on profits made in the process.
In many ways, this dependence by Government on income taxes
is important, as it, in theory, binds Government to a social contract with the people, whereby legal and natural persons provide
funding to the Government in return for a commitment from Government to provide certain services. In most instances, this is the
relationship that breaks down when countries are hugely resource
rich, forming a key component of the well documented resource
With regards to the taxes to be introduced to promote domestic
value-addition in the primary commodity and natural resources
sectors, this remains highly concerning and similarly ill advised.
The reason for this is that a tax of this nature acts as a disincentive to mine, rather than an incentive to add value domestically,
due to the manner in which the tax burden falls. As such, there is
a serious adverse risk to the countrys mining sector, the proverbial golden goose of the local economy.
However, the relatively small tax-payer base in the country when
compared to the electorate, presents a challenge, as many voters
Chart 8: Expenditure trends
In the current budget year, expenditure is expected to increase
by 11.6% when compared to the previous year, taking the total
to N$67.1 billion. This is an increase of 4.7% when compared
to the previous years forecast for the current financial year,
a well-established trend of upward revision in spending. This
expenditure breaks down to 83.5% allocated to the operational
budget, and 16.5% to the development budget. Thus, expenditure falls short of the targeted 20:80 split between development and operational expenditure.
Table 2: Expenditure (N$ Million)
2010 Budget	28,891	29,055	31,113
2011 Budget	27,744	37,688	37,543	44,666
2012 Budget	27,553	37,166	40,157	41,001	40,190
2013 Budget	36,743	40,073	47,576	48,215	50,488
2014 Budget	37,695	47,586	60,092	64,092	69,504
2015 Budget	46,868	60,186	67,092	71,244	72,072
Chart 7: Expenditure breakdown
Expenditure by Sub-Division
As has been the case for a number of years, expenditure in
2015/16 will be heavily slanted towards personnel costs, with
this sub-category making up 35 percent of total expenditure
directly, and significantly more indirectly. This includes remuneration for Government employees, as well as contributions
to pension and medical aid schemes, social security, and
other direct employment benefits. At approximately 26% of
expenditure, subsidies and other current transfers represent
the second largest expenditure line, comprising of transfers to
State Owned Enterprises (approximately N$9.7bn in 2015/16)
and social grants, including old age pensions (approximately
N$7.9bn in 2015/16). Thereafter comes the development budget at 16.5 percent of total expenditure as earlier mentioned.
Goods and other services, made up of travel and subsistence
allowances, materials and supplies, utilities, transport maintenance and similar, makes up 14 percent of expenditure, a total
of N$9.3bn in the FY15/16 financial year. After almost half a
decade of expansive budgets, the cost of debt has increased
notably, and now makes up marginally below 6 percent of total
expenditure. Moreover, this is expected to increase to close to
7.5 percent over the MTEF period, and given the unrealistic
expenditure forecasts, may well end up exceeding this level.
2009 Budget	26,394	26,309
Nevertheless, despite the strong expansion in expenditure
planned for 2015/16, the increase is moderate when compared to the 26.3 percent increase budgeted for in the previous financial year. While it is not believed that this volume
of funds was actually spent, due to the surprise nature of
the increase and the challenges relating to execution and
utilisation of these unplanned for windfalls, the expansion
in the expenditure envelope has increased the base from
which future expenditure is planned.
This persistent growth in personnel costs, debt servicing and
goods and other services is of great concern, as these costs
fast become structural, and are extremely difficult to rein in
should spending need to be constrained. As such, the parts
of the budget most likely to suffer from fiscal tightening is the
development budget, arguably the most important component
of the budget, albeit the most discretionary.
Of the total N$67.1 billion to be spent in 2015/16, N$63.2
billion is non-interest expenditure, with the remainder, of just
under N$4bn, being the interest costs of Governments debt.
Over the MTEF, further expenditure increases are expected.
However, as per the norm, these increases are forecast to
be relatively less aggressive, at 6.2 and 1.2 percent, for
2016/17 and 2017/18, respectively. Nevertheless, as has
always been the case historically, the forecast expenditure
growth slow-down is highly unlikely to materialise, as Government tends to budget low and then ramp up expenditure
as the outer years approach.
Chart 9: Expenditure by sub division
such as Education, Defence and the Police, receive significantly
greater budgetary provision than do many of the smaller, yet significantly more important ministries.
Chart 11: Staffing by vote
Sport, Youth and National Service
Gender Equality and Child Welfare
Operational allocations are largely determined by staffing in
the various votes. As such, those with large staff contingents,
Office of the Attornety-General
Anti-Corruption Commision
Namibian Planning Commission
Sport, Youth and National Services
Lands and Resettlement
Industralisation , Trade and SME
Agriculture, Water and Forestry
Rural, and Urban Development
Other notable expenditure items and commitments include:
Allocations to cater for railway and roads rehabilitation, the
expansion of the Port of Walvis Bay and the Kudu Gas-toPower Project over the MTEF.
N$4.93 billion over the MTEF to support the balance sheets
of Nampower and Namcor for the Kudu Gas-to-Power
Project. In addition, the State will provide a guarantee for the
Poverty Eradication and Social Welfare
National Assemebly
Labour Indstrial Relations and Employment Creation
Higher education, training and innovation
Industrialisation, Trade and SME
Gender Equility and Child Welfare
Average Package PA (N$)
Chart 12: Average annual package by vote
Chart 10: Expenditure by vote
As employee numbers vary highly by vote, so too do average staffing costs. Notable outliers in this regard are International Relations
and Cooperation, with an average staff cost of N$1.2 million per
year, and the Electoral Commission, with an average staff cost of
N$1.4 million per year. Employees in Rural and Urban Development have the lowest average cost, at just under N$128,000 per
year. The police force is second lowest, at N$134,000 per employee per year on average. This is notably below the average
staff cost in the Ministry of Defence (N$220,000 PA) and Correctional Services (N$200,000 PA), illustrating little incentive to join
the police force. Average staff costs at the National Assembly
and National Council are also relatively good, at approximately
N$575,000 and N$500,000 per annum, respectively. These figures are calculated based on the personnel expenditure by vote
divided by the number of staff positions budgeted for by vote.
Votes that employ temporary staff may thus be overstated.
This vast Defence spending is partially justified as a job creation avenue for the large numbers of unemployed youths in
the country. However, it is not used for employment alone, and
there are vast and secretive expenditure lines within the development budget, which are frankly, inexcusable. Moreover, this
secrecy opens the door for illicit activities, and while it cannot
be concluded that such activities are taking place, the secrecy
within which projects are shrouded certainly makes it possible.
Behind Defence, for the second year running, comes Health
and Social Services, with N$5.8bn from the operational budget, and N$699 million from the development budget. Thereafter, Police, at N$4.1bn and N$648 million, respectively.
Following the splitting of the Ministry of Education into the ministries of Education, Arts and Culture and Higher Education,
Training and Innovation, education is the largest recipient of
Government funding, with the two ministries respectively receiving N$10.7bn and N$4.0bn from the operational budget,
as well as N$640 and N$81 million from the development
budget. Thereafter the second largest recipient of funds in
the FY15/16 financial year is the Ministry of Defence, getting
N$6.6bn from the operational budget, and a further N$654 million from the development budget. As such, defence spending
outstrips spending on health, poverty eradication, the police
Subsidies & other curent transfers
Interest Payments & Borrowing Related Charges
Acquisition of CapitalAssets
International R and
financing that will be sourced outside the budget.
N$1.25 billion over the MTEF for Mass Housing Project. In addition, Government will issue a sovereign guarantee to the tune
of N$2 billion for NHE to access funding for this vital project.
N$3.27 billion over the MTEF for the roads projects, in addition
to N$1.7 billion to be raised by the Road Fund Administration.
N$945.84 million for railway projects, with funding outside the
scope of the State Revenue Fund to the tune of N$3.79 billion
over the MTEF.
N$7.75 billion is allocated to the Agricultural Sector to cater for,
among others, the Green Scheme programme and other interventions in the sector over the MTEF.
The Old Age Pension grant was increased by N$400.00 to
N$1,000.00 per month. This will further be increased annually
to reach N$1,200.00 per month at the end of the MTEF period.
Other social grants to be strengthened in coverage
Upgrading of Police Stations N$981 million
Construction of Police Accommodation N$851 million
Purchasing, Constructing and Renovating of Diplomatic
Premises N$1.4 billion
Research and Development (Defence Force) N$6.7 billion
Renovations of School Nationwide N$700 million
Extension of Existing National Council Building N$300 million
Construction and upgrading of Primary Health Care Clinics
Nationwide N$905 million
Construction and upgrading of Primary Health Care Centers
Nationwide N$647 million
Rural Electrification N$683 million
Upgrading and Construction of Lower Courts N$534 million
Various urban + rural development township upgrading +
formalisation, rural + urban sanitation
Construction of MICT Head Office N$290 million
Acquisition/Construction of Offices for MoV HQ & Regional
Offices N$308 million
Construction and Upgrading of MET Headquarters N$274
Construction of Ministry of Trade Headquarters N$400 million
Construction of Sites and Premises Industrial Estates
N$923 million
Special Industrialisation Programme N$1 billion
External Trade Infrastructure Development N$1.6 billion
Product Development and Group Purchasing Project
N$400 million
Construction of MAWF Regional Offices N$480 million
Green Scheme N$3.1 billion
National Horticulture Development Initiative N$1.2 billion
Construction of Large Dams, Desalination and Provision of
Water to larger Settlements 3.1 billion
Railway Network Upgrading N$5.3 billion
Development of the Cape Fria- Katima Mulilo Railway Line
N$2.4 billion
Northern Railway Line Extension N$2.1 billion
Various roads
Land Purchase Project N$2.4 billion
Development of National Fundamental Data Sets N$201
Construction of MoNSYS Ministerial Head Quarters N$300
With regards to the development budget, Transport makes up
the single largest recipient of funds, receiving a total of N$2.8bn
in the current year. These funds will be used, primarily, for the
construction and upgrading of the local road infrastructure and,
to a lesser extent, airport infrastructure. Second to this is expenditure on Urban and Rural Development, totaling N$1.3bn, which
focuses primarily on rural sanitation, notably water and sewerage services. Finally, closing out the three largest allocations is
Agriculture, Water and Forestry, which will receive N$1.2bn in
the current financial year, which will be used, primarily, to support
the Green Scheme and for the construction of dams and water
pipelines across the country. These three votes represent close
to 50% of the total development budgets allocations.
Chart 13: Development budget breakdown (N$ Million)
and Cooperation, 150
Service, 151
Tourism, 153
Justice, 145
Prime Minister, 131
Other, 702
Transport, 2825
Home Affairs and
Immigration, 153
President, 167
Industralisation Trade
and SME, 425
Education, Arts and
Culture, 640
Police, 648
Defence 654
Services, 669
Transfers to SOEs
One of the larger expenditure categories in the budget is transfers to state owned enterprises. For a number of years, these
transfers have been increasing as a percentage of the total
budget, and in 2015/16 represent approximately 14 percent of
total spending. These transfers serve various purposes, at times
utilised for capital projects, but in most instances to support operational activities. The largest recipients of funding in the current
budget year are the Public Service Medical Aid Scheme (N$1.9
billion), the Namibia Students Financial Assistance Fund (N$1.4
billion), the University of Namibia (N$1.1 billion), the Polythecnic
of Namibia (N$718 million), Air Namibia (N$580 million), Namibia Training Authority (N$474 million), Epangelo Mining (N$368
million), the Namibian Broadcasting Corporation (N$342 million)
and TransNamib (N$300 million). Further detail on the largest 20
Land Reform 882
Some notable projects in the development budget are listed below, alongside their estimated total cost (not just over the MTEF).
State Security Infrastructure N$1.5 billion
Construction of the Second Office of the Prime Minister
N$646 million
Construction of a New Parliament Building N$613 million
Construction of Head Office for MHAI N$778 million
Table 3: Transfers to SOEs
Stated Purpose of Funds
(N$ Million)	(N$ Million)
Public Service Medical Aid Scheme
Public servants Medical Aid
For building an 800 MW Kudu Gas Power
Provisions of Loans and Other Financial
Expansion of UNAM Oshakati
Business Plan updates and pay outstanding debt.
Operating Costs and Capital Expenditure
(Lderitz Waterfront)
To equipment Improve , Upgrade Vocational Training
Providers with Modern Training Facilities
Operating Expenses, Infrastructure development
(transmitter network), Completion of the DTT migration
Project and upgrading of NBC studios
Maintenance of the railways and the management
of the Northern Railway station.
Improvement in Mining Output
Veteran Subvention Fund
Funding for Veterans Projects, subversion, Medical Assistance
Namibia Airport Company
Maintain and upgrade airports aerodromes
To provide financial assistance and other services to
To collect, analyze and disseminate Statistical data and information
Constructions of Regional Offices
Advancing Agricultural loans and training of farmers
Empowering the youth through employment activities,
provide training in different skills and creating a conducive
environment for the youth to embark on self-employment projects.
Chart 15: Budget balance and deficit
transfers in the current budget can be seen in table 3.
Chart 14: Transfers to SOEs (N$ Million)
of Namibia, 102
Agency, 137
NAMCOL, 123
Mass Housing, 100
Scheme 1,874
SME Bank, 166
Namibia NHE,
Airport Com220
pany, 241
(NSFAF)
Veteran subversion
Fund, 257
TransNamib, 301
Namibian Broadcasting
Cooperation, 342
Epangelo Mining,
Air Namibia, 580
The borrowing requirement over MTEF
Although the 2015/16 budget deficit is expected to decrease to
5.3% it remains of an expansionary nature, and as expected,
deficit estimates across the MTEF term have been revised upward.
Namibia 1,133
NTA, 474
Polytechnic of
Namibia, 718
Following a policy of reducing cash reserves held with the
Bank of Namibia, the Government is now more reliant on debt
issuance to fund the deficit than ever before. As such, the vast
majority of the current deficit will be funded through debt issuance, taking the already high debt levels (relative to historic
levels) even higher.
The budget balance is a good single line way in which to monitor the budgeting process, as over time, the budget should be
in equilibrium. In times of economic downturn, it is normal for
Governments to run counter-cyclical policy which should have
a stimulative effect on the economy, and generally result in
fiscal deficits. Once good times have been restored, it is expected that Government will rein in spending, possibly to the
point of running fiscal surpluses, to balance out the deficits of
the weak years.
As a result of the deficit run in four of the last five years, the
countrys debt-to-GDP ratio has increased dramatically, and
is currently forecast to double from the 2011 level, of 16 percent, by 2017/18. This increase comes about despite a major
increase in GDP, emphasising the magnitude of the increase
in debt over the period. Moreover, the current forecast does
not capture the fact that expenditure is undoubtedly going to
increase beyond current forecasts, while revenue may well remain largely unchanged. As such, there is a high probability
that the debt to GDP ratio will increase beyond the current prudential limit of 35 percent (recently increased from 30 percent).
As of 2013/14, the actual budget deficit stood at N$7.0bn, or
5.3% of GDP, compared to the estimated figure of N$7.4bn,
largely due to poor execution of the development budget
during the period. According to the latest budget figures, the
estimated deficit for 2014/15 has expanded from N$7.7bn to
N$10.2bn, or 6.8% of GDP, on the back of an increase in the
estimated operational expenditure during the period. However,
given the known debt issuance figures over the period, as well
as the known drawdown of cash balances at the Bank of Namibia, it is believed that this number must be erroneous, and is
expected to be in the region of N$6 to N$7 billion, rather than
N$10 billion.
Since the introduction of the expansive budget in 2011/12, the
expenditure envelope has been stretched to the maximum as
rampant expenditure growth has not been matched by revenue collection growth. As such, the Ministry has been running
a persistent deficit which is fast becoming structural.
The concern in this regard is that much of this expenditure
increase over the past half-decade has been recurrent, which
is to say that the expenditure is unlikely to result in a major
structural change in the local economy, and is extremely difficult to roll back.
Taking this number at face value, however, going forward, the
deficit is expected to contract to N$8.641, or by 15.5%, for the
2015/16 financial year, dropping to 5.3% of estimated GDP.
The decline is deficit-to-GDP is attributable to a number of
factors, most notably the expected inaccuracy in 2014/15 figure, GDP growth and growing revenue collection. The budget
deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline over the
MTEF, with the budget deficit projected to be 1.5% of GDP in
2017/18. However, given that expenditure rarely, if ever, follows the forecast path of the MTEF, this deficit is unlikely to
materialise at the current low forecast levels, and is likely to be
significantly larger than currently expected.
Through the MTEF period, debt is expected to increase by 79
percent, going from N$35.4 billion in 2014/15, to N$63.4 billion
by 2017/18, starting with an increase of N$8.9bn in 2015/16, of
which foreign issuance amounts to N$2.7bn. Moreover, as mentioned, this is likely to be revised up as expenditure increases
in the outer years. Frankly, this trend is highly concerning and
ultimately not sustainable over the long term. Moreover, the cost
of ever increasing debt is becoming extensive, estimated at just
under N$4 billion in 2015/16, but increasing to close to N$6
billion by the end of the MTEF. Should these deficits persist,
funding costs will increase ever faster. Moreover, should this
trend continue, the country may well see international rating
agencies downgrading the countrys foreign position, making it
difficult and expensive to borrow internationally, as the country
would effectively be assigned junk rating status on the back
of a downgrade from current levels.
That said, the expenditure priority in the current budget is an
improvement over that of last year, but only marginally so. Reassuringly many of the previously announced changes and improvements are being followed through. Also, while the introduction of funding support for some of the NDP4 priorities (and
priority projects) is positive, the fact that it has been left so long
means that there is less room in the budget to fund these projects than would have been the case had they been priorities
when the debt and guarantee ratios were lower. Nevertheless,
these projects and their support must be viewed as a positive,
and should ultimately be prioritised over much of the other,
more wasteful and recurrent, expenditure, which expenditure
is unable to change the structure of the economy.
Chart 16: Stock of debt
In this regard, a persistent concern is that a relatively small
percentage of total expenditure is allocated to the development budget, and what is allocated is poorly utilised and very
poorly focused. Not only does this section of the budget generally see the largest underutilisation of funds (poor execution
rates) but the vast majority of the projects therein are not designed to structurally change the economy. A vast amount of
the expenditure within the development budget appear to be
projects for the construction of new offices for the ever growing
civil service, a heinous waste of finite funds.
DomesticDebt Stock
Total Government guarantees are projected to increase to
N$22.3bn over the MTEF period which is 11.3% of GDP in
2017/18, breaching the targeted level of 10%. This is highly
concerning and, coupled with debt issuance, highlights the
Governments continued utilisation of all possible funding
sources, to their maximum, over the MTEF period. This approach of maxing out on all possible funding streams leaves
little in the bank for unforeseen events. Thus, should the real
sector collapse for some reason, little support can be expected
from Government, as per the current situation in South Africa.
The miserly allocation of funding to housing in the budget is yet
another concern, as this pitiful allocation and relatively minor
pledge of support illustrates the disconnect between the political elite and the will of the people. It could be argued that housing is currently the single most important item on the agenda of
the Namibian populace. However, it receives but 2.2 percent
of total expenditure, and a guarantee of just under 3.0 percent
of expenditure. Without serious and immediate attention from
policy makers, the current housing crisis facing Namibia may
well derail the countrys developmental progress. However,
there appears to be little priority or urgency to the political response.
The unfortunate reality is that the current and historic budgets have fallen woefully short in addressing or aligning to the
key national social and economic developmental issues, and
as a result has fallen woefully short of achieving its massive
developmental potential. A number of the failings in terms of
ultimate allocation and the developmental impact thereof must
be attributed to the generally flawed budgeting process, much
of which is listed below:
Credit must be given to the Ministry of Finance for the improvements in revenue collection over the past few years and, while
much remains to be done, the Ministry and Government currently stand on a much stronger funding footing than was the
case previously. However, while the revenue side of the budget
has seen notable improvement, the expenditure side remains
highly concerning.
Broad short-fallings
The current budget, as with many that went before, suffers a
number of sizable challenges, many of which are administrative in nature, rather than specific to funding allocations. Nevertheless, these administrative shortcomings certainly negatively impact upon the optimality of the budget allocation and
the budget process in general, and thus do ultimately impact
on funding allocations, and the optimality thereof.
The expenditure envelope has been stretched to the maximum
over the past five years, with the debt-to-GDP ratio increasing
quickly towards the prudential limit of 35 percent due to the persistent deficits over this period. The fact that these deficits are
forecast to remain through the MTEF period is similarly troubling. Moreover, the fact that Government is also dramatically
increasing its guarantees, means that it is, in effect, exhausting
its avenues of funding. While this may not be problematic at
the current point in time, it leaves the countrys economy highly
exposed to further negative shocks should these occur.
Thus, in order to address the root of the problem, a number of
these shortcomings are highlighted below:
MTEF Budgeting
The Ministry of Finance terms the budget a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, where in reality, it is more of a single
year budget, with a broad indication of minimum allocations
over the following two years so as to allow for some longer
term planning by Government Offices, Ministries and Agencies. However, given that the final budget figures often differ
by more than 40 percent from their first estimate for a financial
year, it simply cannot be said that the Ministry of Finance practices MTEF, or three year budgeting. Moreover, rather than
facilitating the long-term planning of government, this annual
revision of budgets rather sows uncertainty than its opposite.
As such, it is of critical importance that longer-term budgeting
is not only implemented, but stuck to.
tenance and transport) and acquisition of capital assets (furniture, vehicles and operational equipment) is sizable. However,
the requirements for such increases are often not assessed
by the Ministry of Finance. As such, many O/M/As sit with vast
fleets of unused or misused vehicles, purchase new office
equipment rather than repairing and recycling older requirement, misuse of travel and subsistence allowances and other
Every year, the budget suffers a number of last-minute changes, which result in documents showing innumerable and significantly different numbers for critical aspects of the budget
(for example there are at least three funding shortfall numbers
between the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, Estimates
of Revenue and Expenditure and the Budget Speech). As well
as this, more often than not, there is a general failure by the
Ministry of Finance to produce all of the budget documentation in time for the budget tabling at parliament and to produce
sufficient copies of the budget for the media, analysts and
public. Moreover, the Ministry fails to release all of the budget
documentation on their website for an extended period after
the launch of the budget, further undermining access for the
public, and general budget transparency. All of these problems
are completely avoidable. However, a last-minute scramble in
the Ministry, rather than consistent full-year budgeting, means
that every year these discrepancies arise. Moreover, this lastminute budgeting no doubt results in less than perfect allocation of funding, and thus less than optimal outcomes.
The supposed three-year budgeting process contains another
significant downfall, namely that budgeting focuses primarily
on the upcoming financial year, rather than year two and three
of the budget. As such, year two and three of the budget do not
receive the scrutiny they should, despite going on to form the
base from which the year two and three budgets are crafted at
the point at which they become the current years budget. As
such, large numbers of improperly and inadequately appraised
projects find their way into the budget through the combination
of actual single year budgeting, and feigned (annual) MTEF
Budget cycles vs development plan cycles
An additional challenge pertaining to the supposed MTEF
structure of budgeting is that there is a natural disconnect between the countrys development plans, which run in five-year
cycles, and the MTEFs, which run in three-year cycles. As
such, for at least the first two years of the three-year plans, the
MTEF fails to deliver on and prioritise the issues and priorities
highlighted in the said development plan. As a result, many
years of the development plan are effectively lost from a budgeting point of view, and given the size of the budget relative to
GDP, it is a development tool with potential second to none.
Finally, and most importantly, the budgeting process often appears to be more about allocating money, than assuring its optimal use. Few projects are properly reviewed and appraised
as a matter of course before receiving funding, and as such the
allocations are often far from ideal to assure optimal development outcomes. Thereafter, there is usually very little follow-up
on the budgets to assess the success of allocation in terms
of development and stated outcomes for programmes and
projects. As such, few lessons are learned from failed projects,
and few failing projects are salvaged.
For a number of years, the Ministry of Finance has been practising incremental budgeting, whereby new projects are tagged
onto old projects and old methods of budgeting. As such, the
current budget, as with many previous budgets, appears to
show a significant disconnect between the development goals
of the country and the funding priorities of Government. Rather
than breaking down the budget and rebuilding it each year (or
three years, as should be done with an MTEF) with top priorities first in line for the finite funding available, new projects,
however important, are only funded if funds are available after
all of the older projects and systems have been catered for. It
cannot be overstated the extent of the detrimental impact that
this has on the development process and the ability of Government to reach and meet development goals and targets.
Given the above, it is highly recommended that the Ministry of
Finance move towards a genuine Medium-Term Expenditure
Framework, which will set three year funding plans, based on
well assessed projects and priorities, and then strictly adhered
to such (an example of such a system can be seen in neighbouring Botswana). This process of budgeting will require that
a ground-up budgeting process is set in place, and it is recommended that this ground-up budget construction is carried out
every three years. Moreover, this process should be on-going,
and the budget teams within the Ministry of Finance and National Planning Commission should use the three years between budgets to properly design and appraise projects best
suited to achieve the countrys development plans, in hand
Evidence and audited budgeting
Every year expenditure on goods and services, (including
subsistence and travel, material and supplies, utilities, main-
with the O/M/As, and perform forensic autopsies on previous
budgets, noting successes and failures and the reasoning behind such.
Additionally, it makes sense to change the duration of the National Development Plans from 5 years to 6 years so as to
coincide with two full MTEF periods to allow budgeting to align
with development plan cycles.
Budgeting should be a full-time activity in the Ministry of Finance, and now that the 2015/16 budget has been tabled, the
Ministry should start to work on some of the aforementioned
issues for the 2016/17 budget. As such, the mad scramble towards the 2015 budget tabling could be avoided, expenditures
could be more comprehensively appraised (for the past and
future budgets) and audits could be carried out with regards
to the previously mentioned expenditure categories of Goods
and Other Services and Acquisition of Capital Assets.
Should the aforementioned advice be followed, a number of
the issues pertaining to the actual allocation of funds would
naturally fall away, and the Budget of Namibia would move towards performing the critical development role of which it is
undoubtedly capable.
Rowland Brown was born and raised in Namibia, before studying in Scotland, where he received a Masters
degree in Economics at the University of Aberdeen. Upon completion of his studies, he returned to Namibia
and subsequently worked in the National Planning Commission and Capricorn Investment Holdings, the Bank
of Namibia and IJG Securities as an Economist. He is also the Founding Chairperson of the Economic Association of Namibia, and a regular contributor to local publications and discussions. His interests lie in the areas
of Financial and Development Economics and he worked extensively on Namibias Industrial Policy and the
countrys Fourth National Development Plan.
About Democracy Report
Democracy Report is a project of the IPPR which analyses and disseminates information relating to the legislative agenda of Namibias Parliament. The project aims to promote public participation in debates concerning the
work of Parliament by publishing regular analyses of legislation and other issues before the National Assembly
and the National Council.
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) is a not-for-profit organisation with a mission to deliver independent,
analytical, critical yet constructive research into social, political and economic issues that affect development in
Namibia. The IPPR was established in the belief that free and critical debate informed by quality research promotes
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