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Monetary Policy in Denmark
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Financial Conditions and
The financial markets and the real economy are interrelated. Price formation in the financial markets is affected by expectations of future economic growth and inflation. On the other hand, changes in interest and exchange rates influence the consumption and investment decisions of corporations and households, and thereby future growth and inflation. A key issue is which factors affect the formation of interest and exchange rates, and how and to what extent this influences the real economy.
Since Denmark's monetary-policy objective is to hold the krone stable vis-à-vis the euro, Danmarks Nationalbank does not base its interest-rate decisions on macroeconomic developments. Danmarks Nationalbank normally changes its interest rates when the European Central Bank, ECB, changes the monetary-policy interest rates in the euro area.
The monetary-policy interest rates and expectations of their future course are of greatest significance to the short-term market rates, i.e. interest rates in the money-market and on bonds with maturities of up to 1-2 years. The relationship between the long-term interest rates and the monetary-policy interest rates is less straightforward.
Since the euro fluctuates against other currencies such as the US dollar and the Swedish krona, the Danish krones rate vis-à-vis these currencies will also fluctuate.
Fluctuations in Danish interest and exchange rates affect economic activity and prices in Denmark. Despite the increasing importance of adjustable-rate loans in recent years, long-term interest rates are particularly important to investments by corporations and to house purchases by households. At the same time, changes in the long-term interest rates will affect house prices, and thereby the wealth of households. This in turn affects private consumption. Changes in the krone rate vis-à-vis currencies other than the euro influence foreign trade via trading relations with countries outside the euro area.
3.1 Formation of interest and exchange rates
3.1.1 External influences on Danish interest rates Under Denmark's fixed-exchange-rate policy the sole aim of monetary and foreign-exchange policy is to keep the Danish krone stable vis-à-vis the euro. Other considerations besides the exchange rate, such as macroeconomic developments in Denmark, are not included in monetary-policy considerations.
When the foreign-exchange market is stable, the monetary-policy interest rates in Denmark normally follow the monetary-policy interest rates in the euro area, cf. Chart 3.1. If the krone rate against the euro tends to strengthen or weaken, Danmarks Nationalbank will first intervene in the foreign-exchange market to stabilise the krone. If the trend is persistent, Danmarks Nationalbank will unilaterally change the spread between the monetary-policy interest rates in Denmark and the euro area, cf. Chapter 1.
The short-term market interest rates are strongly influenced by the monetary-policy interest rates. This not only applies to the current level of the monetary-policy interest rates, but also to the expectations of the future course of them. In view of the fixed-exchange-rate policy vis-à-vis the euro the expectations of the future monetary policy in the euro area particularly affect the money-market interest rates in Denmark. The ECB sets the monetary-policy interest rates for the euro area in order to maintain price stability in the euro area, cf. Chapter 4.
Lending rates of the ECB and Danmarks Nationalbank
Note For the ECB the minimum bid rate is applied as from June 2000. From 1999 to June 2000, the ECB's fixed allotment rate applies. The Bundesbank's repo rate is applied before 1999.
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank, the ECB and Danmarks Nationalbank.
The short-term interest rates in Denmark are predominantly determined by conditions in the euro area.
The most obvious transmission from the monetary-policy interest rates to the market interest rates is seen in the money market and in bonds with maturities of up to 1-2 years, cf. Chart 3.2. In situations with foreign-exchange unrest that is perceived as temporary by financial markets, Danmarks Nationalbank's lending rate and the short-term money-market interest rates may, however, fluctuate considerably without significantly affecting the 1-2-year interest rates. This was the case e.g. during the foreign-exchange unrest in 1992-93. The correlation between long-term interest rates and the monetary-policy interest rates is more complex, since expectations of the future course of inflation and real interest rates in the euro area and in Denmark play a significant role.
Danish interest rates for various maturities
Note Monthly averages. The 10-year and 2-year interest rates are government-bond yields, while the 3-month interest rate is an uncollateralised money-market interest rate.
3.1.2 The banks' interest rates
The banks' average interest rates follow the monetary-policy interest rates relatively closely, cf. Chart 3.3. The banks typically change their retail interest rates when Danmarks Nationalbank change the discount rate. The retail interest rates are the rates of interest applied to most households and small corporations. Some of the banks' deposits from and lending to major business customers are subject to terms close to money-market terms. The rates of interest for these agreements are very closely associated with the development in money-market interest rates, and thereby in Danmarks Nationalbank's lending rate.
The discount rate and the banks' average deposit and lending rates
Note Discount rate: daily observations. The other interest rates are quarterly averages.
Source: Statistics Denmark and Danmarks Nationalbank.
The banks' interest rates normally closely follow the course of the monetary-policy interest rates.
In situations with foreign-exchange unrest, which is perceived as temporary, Danmarks Nationalbank may raise the lending rate without simultaneously raising the discount rate. In such cases, the banks will often refrain from changing their retail interest rates, but change the rates of interest for agreements on money-market terms.
The close relation between the banks' retail interest rates on the one hand and Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates and the short-term market rates on the other can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, deposits with and lending by the banks are mostly subject to variable interest rates. Secondly, Danmarks Nationalbank's monetary-policy instruments and the short-term money market are a possible marginal source of financing for the individual bank.
3.1.3 Money-market interest rates and short-term bond yields
Products in the very short-term money market, i.e. with maturities of up to around 14 days, are close substitutes for Danmarks Nationalbank's monetary-policy instruments. The short-term money-market interest rates therefore follow Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates very closely, cf. Chapter 1.
For slightly longer maturities, the money-market interest rates may in some periods deviate from Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates, e.g. if the market expects Danmarks Nationalbank to change the monetary-policy interest rates within the next few months. Since Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates normally follow the ECB's interest rates, the money-market interest rates in Denmark will follow developments in equivalent interest rates in the euro area very closely. Expectations of the ECB's monetary policy thus play a key role in determining the course of the slightly more longer-term Danish money-market interest rates.
Changes in Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates that are perceived as temporary do not normally have any significant impact on interest rates for maturities of around 1-2 years.
Interest rates for maturities of up to 1-2 years are strongly influenced by the level of the monetary-policy interest rates as well as expectations of their future course. In the light of Denmark's fixed-exchange-rate policy the course of equivalent interest rates in the euro area and expectations of the ECB's monetary policy play a key role in the development of these interest rates.
3.1.4 Long-term interest rates
There is no direct or unequivocal relation between the monetary-policy interest rates and the long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates reflect long-term expectations of inflation and real interest rates. In theory, this is a complex relation, making it impossible without further assumptions to determine the course of the long-term interest rates when the monetary-policy interest rates are changed.[1] In addition, long- term interest rates reflect the credit and liquidity risks for the individual bond types.
For many countries, the level of inflation is the dominant factor determining the level of long-term interest rates. If the financial markets are confident that monetary policy and other economic policies can keep inflation at a stable, low level, the long-term inflation expectations will be relatively stable, and changes in monetary-policy interest rates by the central banks will not necessarily have an impact on developments in long-term interest rates. On the other hand, if there is uncertainty concerning the ability and commitment to pursue an economic policy consistent with low inflation, bond investors will require a premium, and thereby higher interest rates as compensation for the risk of deterioration in the purchasing power of savings.
The long-term Danish bond interest rates are significantly influenced by the development in equivalent interest rates in the euro area. In a more global perspective the interest rates in the industrialised countries tend to show the same overall fluctuations, despite large exchange-rate fluctuations. This can be attributed to unrestricted international capital flows and relatively homogenous developments in inflation, cf. Chart 3.4.[2]
10-year government-bond yields in selected countries
Note Monthly averages.
The course of the long-term Danish interest rates is determined primarily by the equivalent interest rates in the euro area.
Interest rates in different countries may naturally take different courses in line with different economic developments. This was the case in Denmark during the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992-93 when the Danish-German 10-year yield differential widened for a short period, cf. Chart 3.5. The Chart also clearly shows how the transition to a consistent fixed-exchange-rate policy in 1982 gradually gained credibility, whereby devaluation and inflation expectations in Denmark were reduced. As a consequence, the yield differential to Germany narrowed considerably from more than 12 per cent in 1982 to around 0.25 per cent in 2002.
10-year bond yields in Denmark and Germany
Note Quarterly averages.
3.1.5 The effective krone rate
Since the krone's fluctuation vis-à-vis the euro is held at a very modest level due to the fixed-exchange-rate policy, the krone will match the euro's fluctuation against other currencies.
The krone may weaken against one currency and strengthen against another at the same time. To assess when the krone overall weakens or strengthens the "effective krone rate" is calculated. It is a weighted average of the bilateral exchange rates vis-à-vis Denmark's major trading partners, cf. Chart 3.6. An increase in the effective krone-rate index indicates a strengthening of the krone vis-à-vis the weighted average of the currencies in the index.
Effective krone rate and bilateral krone rates
Note For the bilateral exchange rates an increase in an index reflects the krone's strengthening against the currency in question. For the effective krone rate an increase in the index reflects the krone's strengthening vis-à-vis the weighted average of the currencies included in the index.
The effective krone-rate index has been relatively stable since 1980, even though the exchange-rate policy is not aimed at managing the index. On the other hand, the bilateral krone rate has varied considerably vis-à-vis individual currencies, with the weakening of the Swedish krona and the strengthening of the yen as the most extreme examples among the currencies in Chart 3.6.
The weights in the krone-rate index reflect the competition environment for trade in industrial goods and are shown in Table 3.1.[3] The euro area is clearly Denmark's most important trading partner, accounting for almost 60 per cent of the weight basis. However, in view of the fixed-exchange-rate policy, fluctuations in the effective krone rate are attributable to the krone's fluctuation against the largest trading partners outside the euro area.
Weights in Danmarks Nationalbank's effective krone-rate index
Euro area (EUR)
Hungary (HUF) 0.3
The effective krone rate is a weighted measure of the krone's fluctuation vis-à-vis the euro and other currencies. It is not possible to manage the effective krone rate while also pursuing a fixed-exchange-rate policy vis-à-vis the euro.
3.2 Financing patterns of households and corporations
The impact of interest and exchange rates on private consumption and real capital investments depends inter alia on the development in the wealth of corporations and households, and the structure of their assets and liabilities.[4]
3.2.1 Households
Households borrow mainly from banks and mortgage-credit institutes. At end-2002, mortgage-credit loans accounted for around 80 per cent of borrowing from banks and mortgage-credit institutes, while bank loans accounted for the remaining 20 per cent, cf. Table 3.2.
Borrowing by households from danish banks and mortgage-credit institutes
Kr. billion
End-2002
Total mortgage-credit loans
Note: Households include the self-employed. The Table includes lending by banks and mortgage-credit institutes in Denmark and Danish banks units abroad.
1 The breakdown is partly estimated on the basis of the breakdown of mortgage-credit loans by property category and loan type. Fixed-rate loans include index-linked loans.
Households borrow mainly from banks and mortgage-credit institutes.
Households' purchases of real property and large consumer goods items are financed predominantly via mortgage-credit loans. Mortgage-credit loans often have maturities of 20 or 30 years, and for most of these loans the interest rate is fixed throughout the period. Mortgage-credit loans are, however, usually callable, so that they can be converted to loans at lower interest rates should this prove favourable in connection with falling interest rates. This right is widely used.[5]
In recent years, adjustable-rate loans as a proportion of total lending by the mortgage-credit institutes has increased. The rate of interest for these loans is adjusted to the current market terms with an agreed frequency, e.g. annually, although the frequency can be up to 5 years. At end-2002 adjustable-rate loans accounted for around 30 per cent of total lending by the mortgage-credit institutes, against 6 per cent at the end of 1999. Together with borrowing from the banks this implies that almost half of the interest payments made by households are affected by the development in the short-term interest rates.
For the overall household sector, real property is by far the largest wealth asset. The households also hold certain financial assets such as bank deposits and bonds. For most households, net interest expenditure tends to increase when interest rates rise.
In general terms fluctuations in house prices and in long-term interest rates are related. If long-term interest rates are rising, it becomes more expensive to finance a home purchase, so that house prices will tend to fall. However, Chart 3.7 shows that there is not always a strong co-variation between quarter-on-quarter fluctuations in house prices and in the 10-year bond yield.
Quarterly percentage changes in housing prices and quarterly changes in long-term bond yields
For households whose homes are financed with fixed-rate loans, an increase in long-term interest rates will reduce the market value of the debt. Since for most households the property value exceeds the housing debt, the deterioration in property value as a consequence of rising interest rates will often exceed the reduction of the debt. This erodes the net housing wealth[6]. For households with adjustable-rate loans an increase in interest rates will reduce the market value of the debt by far less than would have been the case with a fixed-rate loan. Interest-rate fluctuations will thus have a stronger impact on net housing wealth.[7]
Interest-rate fluctuations also affect stock prices. Theoretically, the price of a share is often described as the discounted value of expected future dividend payments.[8] The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value of a given future dividend payment. Therefore, stock prices and long-term interest rates will take opposite courses, all other things being equal. However, there is no pronounced relationship in practice, cf. Chart 3.8, which shows the correlation between day-to-day percentage changes in stock prices measured by the KFX index and fluctuations in the 10-year Danish government bond yield. The correlation has been predominantly negative since 1990, but positive for a prolonged period in recent years. This can be attributed to the impact on stock prices of factors other than interest rates.[9]
Correlation between danish stock prices and long-term bond yield
Note The moving average is for 60 business days.
Source: EcoWin and Danmarks Nationalbank.
Empirical analyses indicate that stock-price fluctuations in Denmark have a relatively limited impact on private consumption.[10] A large proportion of Danish households have only little or no wealth invested in stocks. However, there is more share ownership via mutual funds, and when stock portfolios via pension schemes are included, the wealth of many households will directly or indirectly be influenced by stock-price fluctuations. However, experience shows that fluctuations in stock prices have only a minor impact on the households' consumption behaviour.
3.2.2 Corporations
The primary sources of financing for Danish corporations are the issue of stocks, loans from banks and mortgage-credit institutes in Denmark and abroad, and current earnings. The direct issue of bonds is a minor source of financing.
Table 3.3 shows that bank loans account for a considerably larger share of corporations' borrowing from banks and mortgage-credit institutes than is the case for households. One underlying factor could be that the value of the corporate sectors buildings limits their borrowing from mortgage-credit institutes. Furthermore, the interest-rate margin between mortgage-credit loans and bank loans is narrower for corporations than for households.
Borrowing by the corporate sector from danish banks and mortgage-credit institutes
Note: The corporate sector is defined as non-financial corporations, including housing companies. The Table includes lending by banks and mortgage-credit institutes in Denmark and Danish banks' units abroad.
It is difficult to determine the sensitivity of corporations to fluctuations in interest rates for loans with different maturities solely on the basis of the structure of their borrowing, as the corporation may adjust the sensitivity via various financial instruments. For example, a corporation may convert a fixed-rate loan to a floating-rate loan via an interest-rate swap, cf. Chapter 2.
Corporations' debt consists primarily of borrowing from banks and mortgage-credit institutes in Denmark and abroad.
Corporations may use other sources of financing than bank and mortgage-credit loans, such as the issue of shares. A rising stock price will, all other things being equal, make it more attractive for the corporation to issue shares to finance investments in new real capital.
3.3 The impact of interest and exchange rates on the real economy
Changes in interest and exchange rates influence the future course of prices, output and employment. Higher interest rates and/or a strengthening of the effective krone rate will, all other things being equal, tend to dampen economic activity and inflation, while lower interest rates and/or a weakening of the effective krone rate will have the opposite effect.
The theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of changing interest and exchange rates on the economy often distinguishes between a number of different channels via which changes in interest and exchange rates affect economic activity, cf. Box 3.1.[11] The channels are described in the following by means of general, empirical relations from the development in interest rates and exchange rates to key real-economic quantities such as investment, consumption and foreign trade.
The economic literature identifies a number of transmission channels for the impact of interest and exchange-rate fluctuations on economic activity. The number and delineation of the channels vary, like the time perspective, and the channels should not necessarily be perceived as independent. This box distinguishes between four channels.
Investment channel. The rationale behind the investment channel is that falling interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing for investment in real capital such as business investments in machinery and buildings and households' housing construction. When investments increase, economic activity will grow, and prices will tend to rise.
Consumption channel. Interest-rate changes the wealth of the private sector. The most simple effect is via price changes for private bond portfolios, but there is also an indirect effect via possible changes in stock-prices and in the value of the housing wealth. Should e.g. interest rates decrease and the households' wealth increase, a part of the added wealth will be translated into private consumption. In addition, the interest rate has direct impact on private consumption, since net interest income is included in disposable income.
Exchange-rate channel. If the effective krone rate declines, Danish products will all other things being equalbecome cheaper abroad, as the price in foreign currency decreases. The price in Danish kroner for goods manufactured abroad will all other things being equal increase. In so far as the direct impact on prices is not offset by changes in producer prices in Denmark and abroad, exports will tend to rise and imports will tend to fall. This will enhance economic activity and lead to a general increase in domestic prices both directly via higher import prices and indirectly via the expansion in activity.
Credit channel. The interest rate is not the only parameter to be considered by e.g. a bank as the basis for its lending decisions. Since the information on the borrower's ability to repay a loan is incomplete, the bank has to evaluate the creditworthiness of the borrower in question. The borrower's creditworthiness may increase when interest rates fall. This can be attributed to a reduced interest burden and an increase in the wealth of the borrower, e.g. in the form of a higher free mortgagable value of the borrower's owner-occupied home. A higher creditworthiness makes it easier to negotiate a loan for consumption or investment in real capital.
3.3.1 Real-capital investments
Theoretically, a negative relation can be expected between long-term interest rates and business investments in plant and equipment, since a fall in interest rates reduces the costs of borrowing to finance investments. This appears to be confirmed in Chart 3.9. However, the relation is less clear in certain periods as investment decisions are also influenced by other factors besides the development in interest rates, such as expected sales.[12]
Long-term bond yield and investment ratio
Note The investment ratio is calculated as private business investments in machinery and means of transportation as a ratio of the gross domestic product at factor prices. The long-term bond yield is quarterly averages of daily observations.
Source: Danmarks Statistik and Danmarks Nationalbank.
Housing construction and the business sectors' investments in plant and equipment increase when interest rates decrease.
Housing investments are also influenced by interest rates via the effect on the costs of new construction compared to purchasing existing real property. A drop in interest rates often leads to higher cash prices, cf. Chart 3.7. An increase in the cash price for real property makes new construction relatively cheaper than purchasing an existing property. This stimulates housing investments, cf. Chart 3.10.
Cash prices, construction costs and housing investments
3.3.2 Private consumption
In theory, interest rates have a direct impact on private consumption by influencing the timing of the individual households' consumption and by changing the households' disposable income. If interest rates fall, it becomes cheaper to finance consumption today, whereby present consumption increases to the detriment of savings (the substitution effect). At the same time, the disposable income of debt-burdened households will increase, which will tend to further increase present consumption (income effect).
However, empirical studies indicate that consumption patterns are mainly influenced by other factors than interest rates. Changes in the private sector's wealth, primarily housing wealth, is by far the single most significant explanation for the variation in consumption as a ratio of disposable income, as wealth owners translate a proportion of a change in wealth into private consumption. However, the relation has been less pronounced since the reduction of the tax deductibility of interest payments introduced with the Whitsun Package of Economic Measures in 1998. After 1998, housing prices have increased considerably, while private consumption has been more subdued, cf. Chart 3.11.
Wealth and consumption as a ratio of disposable income
A decline in interest rates especially affects private consumption via changes in the private sector's wealth, primarily housing wealth.
3.3.3 Foreign trade
A decline in the effective krone rate will, all else being equal, make Danish goods cheaper abroad, as the price in foreign currency becomes lower. The price in Danish kroner of goods manufactured abroad will increase. In so far as the direct effect on prices is not offset by changes in producer prices in Denmark and abroad, the volume of exports will tend to increase, while the volume of imports will decrease. This will stimulate economic activity and will induce upward pressure on domestic prices, both directly via higher import prices, and indirectly via expanded activity.
It is difficult to establish a close empirical relation between the course of the effective krone rate and that of imports and exports. The principal reason is that the volume of foreign trade normally reacts sluggishly to relative price changes between goods manufactured in Denmark and abroad, while the development in the size of the market, including cyclical trends, plays a key role. Moreover, in the short term, the relative price development has only a minor impact on determining the market shares of imports and exports. A further complication is that exporters and importers also change their prices when the exchange rate changes, which offsets the direct price effect of the exchange-rate change.[13] For example, experience shows that Danish exporters typically raise the price (in Danish kroner) to match the world-market price when the krone weakens. Similarly, foreign exporters often lower the price in their own currency when the krone weakens. Exporters and importers may at the same time conclude forward foreign-exchange contracts in order to cushion some of the effects of future exchange-rate fluctuations.
Chart 3.12 shows the development in the market share for Danish exports of manufactured goods together with the relative Danish export price. If Danish export prices rise, whereby Danish goods become more expensive abroad, the market share is assumed to decline. In some periods this relation is less obvious, as other factors carry more weight than the development in relative export prices, cf. Nielsen (1999).
Danish export market share and relative export price
Note The market share is Denmark's manufactured exports as a ratio of the size of Denmark's export markets. The size of Denmark's export markets is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of Denmark's trading partners. The relative export price is the price for Danish exports in relation to the competing price in the individual markets, weighted by market size in Danish exports.
Source: Danmarks Nationalbank and Statistics Denmark.
Chart 3.13 shows the import market share in Denmark and the relative import price. As before, a negative relation between the import price and the market share in Denmark should be expected.
Relative import price and import market share
Note The relative import price is the price for imports to Denmark in relation to the deflator for value added in the private, non-agricultural sector in Denmark. The market share reflects imports to Denmark of goods, excluding energy, ships and aircrafts in relation to domestic demand for these goods.
A weakening of the krone normally causes exports to rise and imports to fall.
3.4 Effects of interest and exchange-rate changes on GDP and consumer prices
The following seeks to quantify how interest and exchange-rate changes influence economic growth and inflation using Danmarks Nationalbank's macroeconomic model (Mona[14]).
Section 3.4.1 first illustrates the real-economic effects of an isolated decline in Danish interest rates and an isolated weakening of the effective krone rate.
An experiment based on changes only in Danish interest or exchange rates may appear very theoretical in the light of Denmark's fixed-exchange-rate policy. However, the calculations illustrate the extent of the real-economic effects of "shocks" to interest and exchange rates respectively. As a supplement, section 3.4.2 describes calculations of the effects of an increase in the euro area's monetary-policy interest rates followed by a corresponding raising of the monetary-policy interest rates in Denmark.
3.4.1 The effects of isolated changes in Danish interest and exchange rates
The interest-rate experiment specifically assumes a permanent decrease in interest rates (before tax) by 1 percentage point for all maturities. In the calculation of the effect of a change in exchange rates a permanent decrease in the krone rate by 1 per cent vis-à-vis all other currencies is assumed (corresponding to a decrease in the effective krone rate by 1 per cent). The calculations are made in relation to a 10-year base scenario.
A decline in interest rates and a weakening of the effective krone rate both have a positive impact on economic activity. For both experiments, Chart 3.14 shows the impact on GDP over time compared to a given base scenario.
Effect on GDP in constant prices
An expansionary GDP effect is seen on a drop in interest rates by 1 per cent. The effect peaks after 4-6 years, when GDP is approximately 1 per cent higher than in the base scenario.[15] After this time, the effect gradually subsides. The experiment where the krone rate weakens shows a more moderate total impact on GDP.
The effects on activity in the interest-rate experiment can be attributed primarily to private consumption via the housing market, while the activity effects in the exchange-rate experiment can be attributed mainly to exports via improved competitiveness.
The effect on consumer prices is far more pronounced in the exchange-rate experiment than in the interest-rate experiment, cf. Chart 3.15. A weakening of the krone rate immediately affects consumer prices via import prices, which is the principal reason for the somewhat more pronounced price effect. In addition, wage costs rise as a result of increasing activity and employment, whereby prices go up. The price effects of a decrease in interest rates can be attributed primarily to higher wage costs, causing prices to rise.
Effect on consumer prices
3.4.2 The effects of a temporary increase in interest rates in the euro area and Denmark
The calculations assume that the ECB raises the monetary-policy interest rates in the euro area by 1 per cent for 2 years, compared to a base scenario. Danmarks Nationalbank is assumed to follow suit with a parallel increase in the monetary-policy interest rates in Denmark in view of the fixed-exchange-rate policy. After the two years the monetary-policy interest rates return to the original level in both the euro area and in Denmark.[16]
The raising of the monetary-policy interest rates in the euro area is not expected by the market in advance. However, the market is assumed to correctly expect the monetary-policy interest rates to return to the original level after 2 years. This brings an immediate increase in the 10-year bond yield by around 0.20 percentage points.[17] The krone follows the euro, and the two currencies are assumed to appreciate by 2 per cent vis-à-vis all other currencies. This effective krone rate thus appreciates by 0.85 per cent, cf. also the weights in the effective krone rate in Table 3.1. Both long-term interest rates and the effective krone rate are back at the original level after the two years.
The experiment also e.g. considers that the interest-rate increase and the euro's appreciation dampen growth in the euro area, resulting in lower growth in Danish exports to the euro area.
Table 3.4 summarises the calculations. The higher long-term interest rates lead to falling house prices, which has a negative impact on private consumption. Exports are reduced as a result of the appreciation of the effective krone rate and reduced demand in the euro area. The overall impact on GDP for the first five years is negative compared to the base scenario.
Effects of a temporary interest-rate increase in the euro area and Denmark
Afvigelse fra grundforløb i pct.
GDP -0.13
Investment -0.35
The krone's appreciation leads to falling consumer prices immediately after the interest-rate increase. Furthermore, the reduced economic activity contributes to falling wage levels, which in turn contributes to falling consumer prices in subsequent years compared to the base scenario.
For a horizon beyond 5 years the lower wage increases will gradually contribute to a renewed upswing in activity, after which GDP and consumer prices gradually return to the base scenario.
Comparison with similar surveys for the euro area member states shows that the Danish economy is generally less sensitive to fluctuations in short-term interest rates than most other economies.[18] This can be attributed to the relatively widespread use of financing at fixed interest rates in Denmark.
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Saabye, Niki (2003), The Equity Risk Premium, Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review, 1st Quarter.
van Els, Peter, Alberto Locarno, Julian Morgan and Jean-Pierre Villetelle (2001), Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?, ECB Working Paper No. 94.
Ølgaard, Christian (1992), The Effective Krone Rate and Competitiveness, Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review, February.
Ølgaard, Christian (1997), Short-Term Correlations between 10-year Government Bond Yields in Selected Countries, Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review, May.
[1]See e.g. Ellingsen and Söderström (2001) for an analysis of how long-term interest rates react differently in different situations when the monetary-policy interest rates are changed.
[2]The relation between interest-rate developments in Denmark and abroad is described in e.g. Hansen (1995) and in Ølgaard (1997).
[3]The weights are calculated on the basis of trade in industrial goods in 1995. The effective krone rate index is described in further detail in Ølgaard (1992) and Pedersen (1996 and 1998a).
[4]A compilation of the total financial assets and liabilities of households and corporations for 2001 can be found in Statistics Denmark (2003). From the autumn of 2003 Danmarks Nationalbank intends to publish quarterly financial accounts showing total financial assets and liabilities for the main sectors of the Danish economy. Andersen, Lyngesen and Pedersen (1999) analyse credit extension by banks and mortgage-credit institutes to households and corporations since 1980 and the relation with the business cycle.
[5]See e.g. Knudsen (2003) for a discussion of conversions of 30-year mortgage-credit bonds since the mid-1990s.
[6]Net housing wealth is the cash value of the home less the cash value of its financing.
[7]Christensen and Kjeldsen (2002) give a more detailed review of the relations between interest-rate fluctuations and housing wealth with various types of financing.
[8]See Saabye (2003) for a description of the pricing of stocks. Pedersen (1998b) and Ejerskov (2000) discuss stock prices and house prices in more general terms, and their impact on prices, consumption, investments and monetary policy.
[9]For example, the dampened economic growth in recent years may have eased inflationary pressure, giving lower interest rates, but it may also have reduced expectations of corporations' future earnings. If this effect is stronger than the discounting effect of the lower interest rates, the relation between stock prices and interest rates becomes positive.
[10] See e.g. Ludwig and Sløk (2002) for an analysis of the significance of trends in the stock and housing markets to private consumption in a number of OECD countries.
[11] More recent discussions of the issue and literature are found in e.g. Angeloni et al. (2002), ECB (2000 and 2002), Kuttner and Mosser (2002) and van Els et al. (2001).
[12] In theory, the real-interest rate is the relevant interest rate, rather than the nominal interest rate. Assuming rigid wage and price developments, at least in the short term, and considering the taxation system, results in a more complex problem, cf. Pedersen (2001) and Knudsen (2002).
[13] See e.g. Devereux, Engel and Storgaard (2002).
[14] Mona is described in Christensen and Knudsen (1992) and Danmarks Nationalbank (2003). Setting up monetary and financial condition indices is an alternative method to quantify the impact of interest and exchange-rate changes on the real economy, cf. Hansen (1997).
[15] This could result in a rule of thumb to the effect that over a period of some years an interest-rate decrease by 1 per cent causes GDP to rise by approximately 1 per cent. This conclusion is also reached in Knudsen (1993).
[16] This interest-rate change and its consequences for the euro area are described in van Els et al. (2001). These results are used as input to the calculations in Mona. The experiment with Mona is described in further detail in Danmarks Nationalbank (2003).
[17] Since the rate of interest is 1 percentage point higher in two years out of 10 compared to the base scenario.
[18] See e.g. van Els et al. (2001).
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