Source: http://doczz.net/doc/1412696/guidance-document-implementation-of-lightning
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Guidance document Implementation of LIGHTNING - style and fashion
Guidance document Implementation of LIGHTNING
Methodologies: extended PSA
"NUCLEAR FISSION "
Report 5: Guidance document
Implementation of LIGHTNING hazards in extended PSA
The conclusions of the review will be discussed during the ASAMPSA_E workshop with PSA
End-Users (12-14th Sept. 2016)
The report will then be improved before the end of the project (31st Dec. 2016)
Technical report ASAMPSA_E / WP21 & WP22 / D21.3 & D22.2-3-5/ 2016-23
Reference IRSN PSN/RES/SAG/2016-00189
I.Ivanov (TUS), P. Simurka (VUJE), J. Prochaska (VUJE), P. Brac (EDF),
D. Vasseur (EDF), P. Duquerroy (EDF), C. Trouilloud (EDF), M. Kumar
(LRC), S. Potempski (NCBJ), T. Vinot (IRSN), J. Espargilliere (IRSN)
Actual submission date: 31/05/2016
WP No: 21/22
Lead topical coordinator :
His organization name :
Restricted to a group specified by the partners of the ASAMPSA_E pro-
Partners responsible of the document : TUS, VUJE, EDF, LRC, NCBJ, IRSN
Technical report ASAMPSA_E/ WP21 & WP22 / D21.3 & D22.2-3-5/ 2016-23
Rapport IRSN-PSN-RES/ SAG/2016-189
Report 5: Guidance document - Implementation of LIGHTNING hazards in
extended PSA
I.Ivanov (TUS), P.Simurka (VUJE), J.Prochaska (VUJE), P.Brac (EDF),
D. Vasseur (EDF), P. Duquerroy (EDF), C.Trouilloud (EDF), M. Kumar (LRC),
S. Potempski (NCBJ), T. Vinot (IRSN), J. Espargilliere (IRSN)
Level 1 PSA, Lightning Hazard, Lightning PSA
This report is a joint deliverable of ASAMPSA_E WP21 (Initiating events modelling) and WP22 (How to introduce
hazards in L1 PSA and all possibilities of events combinations).
The report introduces feasible approach based on already existing guidelines dealing with the implementation of
external hazards in L1 PSA. In general the report summarizes the lessons learnt from existing standards, existing
gaps and possibility for future development with regards to scope of WP21 and WP22. Main outcome of this report
is focused on development of extended lightning PSA discussing details regarding implementation of such extended
I.Ivanov, P.Simurka et.al.
Peter Simurka, Ivan Ivanov
P.Simurka, I.Ivanov , M.
Kumar, J.Prochaska
I.Ivanov , J.Prochaska,
P.Simurka, P.Brac, D.
Vasseur, P.Duquerroy,
C.Trouilloud, M. Kumar, S.
Report IRSN/PSN-RES-SAG 2016-00189
Approval review. Editorial
comments. The report still
(see indications in the text).
In particular the applicability of existing norms in the
context of PSA shall be discussed during the review
Vienna University WP21 coordinator
Wielenberg Andreas
Gorpinchenko Oleg
Yamanana Yasunori
Report 5: Guidance document – Implementation of LIGHTNING hazards in extended PSA
The lightning (including the electromagnetic interference) on one hand is indicated with # 39 in the exhaustive list
of external hazards posing potential threats to nuclear installations, in particular in the list of the Meteorological
events: rare meteorological phenomena, as part of the List of external hazards to be considered in ASAMPSA_E
[43]. On other hand the survey in the frame of WP10 between the end users shown that the lightning is amongst
the ten external hazards most often considered by the respondents [38]. Thence the attention to the lightning
hazard is within the scope of the extended PSA and its role in the safety of the nuclear power plant is underlined
The scope of this report is to provide guidance on implementation of LIGHTNING hazards in extended level 1 PSA.
This report is a joint deliverable of WP21 (Initiating events modelling) and WP22 (How to introduce hazards in L1
PSA and all possibilities of events combinations) which aims:
to update the list, characteristics and modelling of the already introduced external hazards in the existing
guidance, in particular with the lightning hazards;
to identify and promote exchanges of some good practices on the implementation of external events in L1
to outline the approach, structure and content as basis and in a perspective development of extended
PSA, in particular to LIGHTNING.
Further, the objective of the complete WP21 and to a greater extent WP22 is to discuss good practices for the
introduction of relevant modelling for external hazards in an existing (internal events) L1 PSA (event trees).
This report also includes the END USER recommendations given in WP10 and is intended to next external review
before the final description for the aim of ASAMPSA_ E project.
ASAMPSA_E PARTNERS
The following table provides the list of the ASAMPSA_E partners involved in the development of this document.
NCBJ Institute
MODIFICATIONS OF THE DOCUMENT ......................................................................................................................................3
LIST OF DIFFUSION ......................................................................................................................................................................4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................................................................8
ASAMPSA_E PARTNERS ..............................................................................................................................................................9
CONTENT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................................................................... 12
DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
EXISTING GUIDANCE USEFUL FOR LIGHTNING PSA ......................................................................................................... 16
1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................................ 17
1.1 OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................................................................................................... 18
1.2 SCOPE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 19
2 GENERAL PHENOMENOLOGY OF LIGHTNING.................................................................................................................. 20
2.1 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF GENERAL PHENOMENOLOGY........................................................................................... 20
2.2 LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST EVENTS ................................................................................................................... 25
2.3 BASIC REQUIREMENTS ON L1 PSA ............................................................................................................................... 27
3 DATABASE ON LIGHTNING PHENOMENA ......................................................................................................................... 28
3.1 LIST OF DATA REQUIRED FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................... 28
3.2 EXTERNAL DATA SOURCES ........................................................................................................................................... 32
3.3 PLANT DATABASE ............................................................................................................................................................ 35
4 LIGHTNING HAZARD ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES .................................................................................................35
4.1 PARAMETRIZATION AND LIGHTNING STRIKE FREQUENCY ASSESSMENT ....................................................... 36
4.1.1 Development of generic hazard curve ......................................................................................................... 37
4.1.2 Development of specific hazard curve ........................................................................................................ 38
4.2 FRAGILITY ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 39
4.2.1 Assesment of probability that SSC or relevant area is affected by lightning strike .................................... 39
4.2.2 Estimation of probability of failure of relevant components ....................................................................... 45
5 CORRELATED HAZARDS AND COMBINATION OF HAZARDS ....................................................................................... 47
6 METHODS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS COMBINATIONS .............................................................................. 48
6.1 INTERNAL FIRES AND RELEASING OF POISONING SUBSTANCES ........................................................................ 48
6.2 ACCIDENTS OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES .................................................................................................................... 48
6.3 FOREST FIRES .................................................................................................................................................................... 49
6.4 METHODS FOR HAZARD COMBINATIONS .................................................................................................................. 49
7 BEST PRACTICES (EXAMPLES) ............................................................................................................................................. 50
8 EXTENDED LIGHTNING PSA ................................................................................................................................................. 52
8.1 STEP 1 - REVIEW PLANT SAFETY ..................................................................................................................................53
8.2 STEP 2 - DEVELOPING SSC LIST ..................................................................................................................................... 54
8.3 STEP 3 - LIGHTNING HAZARD ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................... 54
8.4 STEP 4 - FRAGILITY ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................... 54
8.5 STEP 5 - DEVELOPING LIGHNING EVENT AND FAULT TREES................................................................................ 57
8.6 STEP 6 - RISK QUANTIFICATION .................................................................................................................................... 57
8.7 STEP 7 – L1 PSA REPORTING ........................................................................................................................................... 57
8.8 L2 PSA CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 57
9 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................................................ 57
10 LIST OF REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................... 59
11 LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................................................... 62
12 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................................... 63
13 APPENDIX 1 – Lightning risk safety assessment (some comments from IRSN) ...................................................................... 64
14 APPENDIX 2– WP40 – Level 2 PSA contribution: Interface Level 1 – Level 2 ....................................................................... 66
15 APPENDIX 3- Hazard assessment and PSA tool ....................................................................................................................... 68
Brought High Voltage Waves (Overvoltage)
Bank Pumping Station
Design Safety Guide
Lightning Electromagnetically Pulse
Nph Design Category
Plant Operational State
These definitions come from IAEA and US NRC safety glossaries. Some harmonization will be done between all
ASAMPSA_E reports in final versions.
This will be updated in the final version of the report.
Design Basis External
External Hazard Analysis
An inductive technique that starts by hypothesizing the occurrence of basic initiating
events and proceeds through their logical propagation to system failure events.
The event tree is the diagrammatic illustration of alternative outcomes of specified initiating events.
Fault tree analysis considers similar chains of events, but starts at the other end
(i.e. with the ‘results’ rather than the ‘causes’). The completed event trees and
fault trees for a given set of events would be similar to one another.
A deductive technique that starts by hypothesizing and defining failure events and
systematically deduces the events or combinations of events that caused the failure
The fault tree is the diagrammatic illustration of the events.
Event tree analysis considers similar chains of events, but starts at the other end
(i.e. with the ‘causes’ rather than the ‘results’). The completed event trees and
In a nuclear power plant, an instance of severely abnormal plant behaviour caused by
an abrupt transition from one plant status to another following a small deviation in a
plant parameter, and thus a sudden large variation in plant conditions in response to
a small variation in an input.
The range of conditions and events taken explicitly into account in the design of a
facility, according to established criteria, such that the facility can withstand them
without exceeding authorized limits by the planned operation of safety systems.
The external event(s) or combination(s) of external events considered in the design
basis of all or any part of a facility.
An event originated outside a nuclear power plant that directly or indirectly causes an
initiating event and may cause safety system failures or operator errors that may lead
to core damage or large early release. Events such as earthquakes, tornadoes, and
floods from sources outside the plant and fires from sources inside or outside the
plant are considered external events. By historical convention, LOOP not caused by
another external event is considered to be an internal event.
According to NUREG 2122, the term external event is no longer used and has been
replaced by the term external hazard.
The objective is to evaluate the frequency of occurrence of different severities or
intensities of external events or natural phenomena (e.g., external floods or high
The fragility of a structure, system or component (SSC) is the conditional probability
of its failure at a given hazard input level. The input could be earthquake motion,
wind speed, or flood level.
Estimation of the likelihood that a given component, system, or structure will cease
to function given the occurrence of a hazard event of a certain intensity.
In a PRA, fragility analysis identifies the components, systems, and structures
susceptible to the effects of an external hazard and estimates their fragility parameters. Those parameters are then used to calculate fragility (conditional
probability of failure) of the component, system, or structure at a certain intensity level of the hazard event.
Fragility analysis considers all failure mechanisms due to the occurrence of an
external hazard event and calculates fragility parameters for each mechanism.
This is true whether the fragility analysis is used for an external flood hazard, fire
hazard, high wind hazard, seismic hazard, or other external hazards. For example, for seismic events, anchor failure, structural failure, and systems interactions are some of the failure mechanisms that would be considered.
A graph that plots the likelihood that a component, system, or structure will fail versus the increasing intensity of a hazard event.
In a PRA, fragility curves generally are used in seismic analyses and provide the
conditional frequency of failure for structures, systems, or components as a function of an earthquake-intensity parameter, such as peak ground acceleration.
Components (SSCs)
Fragility curves also can be used in PRAs examining other hazards, such as high
winds or external floods.
The ASME/ANS PRA Standard defines a hazard as “an event or a natural phenomenon
that poses some risk to a facility.
Internal hazards include events such as equipment failures, human failures, and
flooding and fires internal to the plant.
External hazards include events such as flooding and fires external to the plant,
tornadoes, earthquakes, and aircraft crashes.”
The process to determine an estimate of the expected frequency of exceedance (over
some specified time interval) of various levels of some characteristic measure of the
intensity of a hazard (e.g., peak ground acceleration to characterize ground shaking
from an earthquake). The time period of interest is often taken as 1 year, in which
case the estimate is called the annual frequency of exceedance.
A structured approach used to identify potential human failure events and to systematically estimate the probability of those events using data, models, or expert judgment.
An identified event that leads to anticipated operational occurrences or accident
This term (often shortened to initiator) is used in relation to event reporting and
analysis, i.e. when such events have occurred. For the consideration of hypothetical events considered at the design stage, the term postulated initiating event is
The loss of all power from the electrical grid to the plant.
In a PSA/PRA, loss of offsite power (LOOP) is referred to as both an initiating event
and an accident sequence class. As an initiating event, LOOP to the plant can be a
result of a weather-related fault, a grid-centered fault, or a plant-centered fault.
During an accident sequence, LOOP can be a random failure. Generally, LOOP is considered to be a transient initiating event.
A general term encompassing all of the elements (items) of a facility or activity which
contribute to protection and safety, except human factors.
Structures are the passive elements: buildings, vessels, shielding, etc.
A system comprises several components, assembled in such a way as to perform
a specific (active) function.
A component is a discrete element of a system. Examples of components are
wires, transistors, integrated circuits, motors, relays, solenoids, pipes, fittings,
pumps, tanks and valves.
A type of accident that may challenge safety systems at a level much higher than
A process that distinguishes items that should be included or excluded from an analysis based on defined criteria.
The values and conditions used to determine whether an item is a negligible contributor to the probability of an accident sequence or its consequences.
A quantitative examination of how the behaviour of a system varies with change,
usually in the values of the governing parameters.
A common approach is parameter variation, in which the variation of results is
investigated for changes in the value of one or more input parameters within a
reasonable range around selected reference or mean values, and perturbation
analysis, in which the variations of results with respect to changes in the values
of all the input
A representation of the confidence in the state of knowledge about the parameter
values and models used in constructing the PRA.
Variability in an estimate because of the randomness of the data or the lack of
An analysis to estimate the uncertainties and error bounds of the quantities involved
in, and the results from, the solution of a problem.
EXISTING GUIDANCE USEFUL FOR LIGHTNING PSA
Some of existing guidance’s for hazards in general and lightning hazards in particular are shown here in the table.
More general analysis is available in [1] or [2].
WA1 WA2 WA3 WA4 Remarks
IAEA - A Methodology to Assess the Safety Vulnerabilities of
Nuclear Power Plants against Site Specific Extreme Natural Hazards, 2011
NUREG/CR-2300, Volume 2 PRA
WENRA Issue O
NEA/CSNI/R(2009)4
SKI, Report 02:27
10CFR 50.54(f)
IEC 62858:2015 Lightning density based on lightning location
systems (LLS) – General principles
EUR 2001 “Volume 2 Generic Nuclear Island Requirements. 2.1
Safety requirements. 2.17 PSA Methodology. Revision D”
WENRA RHWG, Safety of New NPP Designs - March 2013
/weather,
Non-Seismic Hazard
Non-Seismic External Events
WENRA "Position paper on Periodic Safety Re-views (PSRs)",
NRC Handbook "Risk Assessment of Operational Events - Revision
1.03", August 2009
IAEA-TECDOC-1341
HSE Safety Assessment Principles for Nuclear Facilities 2006 ,
EPRI 1022997
WENRA-RHWG, Guidance Document Issue T: Natural Hazards.
ONR Technical Assessment Guide - External Hazards. T/AST/013
- Issue 4, July 2011
WA1 - Impact on the SSCs modelled in L1 PSA event trees
WA2 - Impact on Human Reliability Assessment modelling in L1 PSA
WA3 - Site impact modelling in L1 PSA event trees
WA4 - Link between external initiating events of PSA and NPP design basis conditions (only IE frequency)
Safety reports and probabilistic safety analysis are included amongst safety licensing documentations for nuclear
facilities. External hazards including extreme meteorological events play important roles in nuclear safety. One of
the meteorological events is a strong atmospheric discharge - lightning.
The importance of this hazard increased taking into account the high frequency of its occurrence. For instance the
study for the territory of Bulgaria shows that the number of recorded lightnings over the area of Kozloduy NPP
(within a radius of about 50 km) for three-month period (June, July and August) of 2005 and 2006 around 30004000 lightnings (mainly in noon and afternoon hours) [33].
One indicative example for the lightning hazard is the study on the lightning risk assessment evaluation on French
NPPs [46] on the basis of 30 years of observation (1980-2012) on 19 large industrial nuclear sites refers for very
important number of ‘structure per year’ - material damages (~ 50000 structure per year) and human risk: around
25000 structure per year (about 50% of the buildings are not occupied). From all registered incidents, 116 incidents
are with impact on the process, but without material damage (e.g. activation of safety power source) and 51 incidents are with material damage (e.g. destruction of equipment). In the same time, there are no human registered
injuries and no fire ignition due to lightning. So, for this study the risk assessment method addresses one third of
the lightning events [42]. Statistically, it can be seen as average 1.7 lightnings per year with risk for material damage in nuclear power plant (NPP). Significant times higher is frequency of such events calculated with the Improved EDF’s method and much higher with the Standard method (classical application of IEC 62305-2).
Comment : the applicability of current IEC 62305-2 standard (and future improved standard IEC 62305-2 as recommended in [46]) in the context of PSA shall be discussed during the report review phase. See also appendix1.
Based on latest predictions of worldwide climatology panels regarding global warming importance of lightning
topic can be more and more relevant [6]. Increasing of average temperature leads to the more frequent and intensive storms that are main lightning sources. Increasing storm frequency including intensity and frequency of lightning can lead to the situation when lightning power can exceeds the limits defined by standards applied for electromagnetic compatibility are used to ensure appropriate protection against impact of lightning. For example, an
article [1], indicate an increase in lightning activity by 12% (or 10%) in the warming of 1° C. There is an assumption
that average earth temperature due to global warming could be increased to nearly 4°C by year 2100, which could
ultimately lead to increasing lightning activity by 48%. That could be disputable taking into account other existing
theory based on climate model conclude on a decrease of lightning activity because of a stabilization of atmosphere, rather than with more violent events, and higher lightning currents, or higher extreme lightning currents.
The impact of the lightnings due to direct (ground) flash strikes and the resulting secondary effects can have serious consequences on the nuclear power structures and systems. With the advent of digital and low-voltage analogue systems in NPPs, lightning protection is becoming increasingly important. These systems have the potential
to be more vulnerable than older, analogue systems to the resulting power surges and electromagnetic interference (EMI) when lightning hits facilities or power lines [34].
For further improvement of the level protection of NPPs against impact of lightnings could be developed by implementation of lightning hazards in extended PSA together with regulatory guidance to address design and implementation practices for lightning protection systems in NPPs.
It is very important to consider the implementation of lightning hazards in extended PSAs to make one realistic
link between the objectives of an extended PSA and the methodological approaches to implement lightning hazards.
The strong expectation from End-users that guidance documents should make the link between the definition of
the top level objectives of a PSA (i.e. its intended uses and applications) and the choice of methods and tools to
execute the different tasks and solve the identified issues.
As precondition for development the present guidance document, with the above presented methodology, is the
understanding for introduction of the lightning hazards in the envelope of the overall risk evaluation in the extended PSA, i.e. realistic is to have an evaluation of the lightning hazard contribution to the overall risk presented
by a plant. Assessment of lightning as an independent risk for NPP requires lengthy observations about its impact
on individual systems of the plant under real conditions and further data for a representative analysis and conclusion.
Further after finalisation of this ASAMPSA_E project, it might be needed to define more ambitious objective concerning the lightning hazards as an independent risk for NPP for probabilistic evaluation and for lightning protection of NPPs with identification of the weaknesses of a NPP with regards to lightning and definition of relevant
improvements. In this case, of course shall be searched new advanced methodologies which will minimise the
number of opened issues in lightning hazard and its PSA.
The aim of this report is to describe the phenomenology of lightnings, their effects and potential impact on nuclear safety, as well as to outline the guide to deal with this phenomenon in PSA. This report discusses possible initiating events related to lightning and their parameters.
Whereas (based on our knowledge) this topic is not covered by any known specific guidance addressing the issue of
electromagnetic interference (EMI) caused by atmospheric discharges, however this report is developing a systematic framework on implementation of lightning hazard and its modelling in L1 PSA.
This topic shall consider general lightning phenomenas and its consequences at NPPs, as discussed in the four cases
Lightning strikes directly on the buildings and facilities, including outdoor switchyard (OSY) at the plant
site and the resulting effects on the nuclear power structures and systems.
Lightning strikes outside of the plant, but fell on transmission lines high voltage related OSY at the plant
and the resulting effects on the nuclear power structures and systems.
Lightning strikes outside of the plant not directly affected transmission lines high voltage related OSY, but
with the resulting effects impacted on transmission lines high voltage related OSY and hence impacted on
the nuclear power structures and systems at the plant site.
Lightning strikes outside of the plant without directly lightning strikes on the transmission lines high voltage related OSY, and without the resulting effects impacted on transmission lines high voltage related
OSY, but affected with lightning strikes or with resulting effects other buildings, facilities and lines, including communications lines, long steam and heat pipelines and other systems entering the plant site,
and hence could impacted on the nuclear power structures and systems at the plant site.
More limited, without considerations outside the standardized vocabulary of IEC 62305, the contents of the Guidance document, could cover only lightning on the NPP site, which can be divided in four sources of damage - on
buildings, near buildings, on services (pipes, telecom lines, Low Voltage (LV) power lines) and nearby services.
Under consideration can be only 3 types of lightning effects - touch and step voltage, physical damage on structure
and overvoltage on electrical or electronic systems.
An approach for the aims of the Guidance for the extended PSA with limitation only in the frame of the existing
IEC 62305 is not very suitable, especially for covering the end-users’ needs and in perspective for more widely
applicable document. Some of reasons are – there are different critical point of views on the standard [43], now
more than 100 published lightning protection codes and standards are in use by various countries and by agencies
within countries, different documents of US Department of Energy, USA National Fire Protection Association
(NFPA) and other are modified [44], etc.
The scope of this report covers objective stated in previous section as follows:
Section 2 introduces general phenomenology of lightning, including lightning effects, operational experience and induced hazards. Basic requirements on L1 PSA concerning external hazards, valid and for lightning are summarized presented also here.
Section 3 deals with database creating which is necessary for assessment of the frequency and magnitude
of lightnings as well as for evaluation of the impact of lightning on the plant. Section also briefly discusses
topic of plant database to support lightning hazard analyses.
Section 4 presents basic methodology for lightning hazard assessment as well as the approach how to
evaluate impact of lightning on plant equipment. This section forms background for PSA fragility analysis.
Within this section the topic of hazard combinations is discussed also.
Section 5 deals with correlated hazards and combinations of hazards.
Section 6 presents some methods for assessment of hazards combinations.
Section 7 provides examples of best practices.
Section 8 is devoted to implementation of extended lightning PSA
2 GENERAL PHENOMENOLOGY OF LIGHTNING
This section introduces general phenomenology of lightning including lightning effects and operational experience.
2.1 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF GENERAL PHENOMENOLOGY
Lightning is the natural equalization of charge potential between various regions of a cumulonimbus cloud and also
the surface of the earth. Typically, the lower region of the cloud becomes negative and this in turn induces positive charging of the earth’s surface below the cloud. When the charge potential between becomes large enough to
break down the normally resistive characteristic of the air, i.e. when the intensity of the electric field between
the cloud and the earth reaches the critical value (about 30 kV/cm), a lightning occurs. There are different lightning, defined in accordance with IEC 62305-1 [5] and IEC 62305-2 [6], as follow:
cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) - discharge that is comprised of one or more cloud-to-ground lightning
strokes that propagate from cloud to ground or vice versa and lead to a net transfer of charge between
cloud and ground;
cloud lightning (IC) - discharge occurring within or among thunderclouds (intracloud), or between thunderclouds (intercloud), or between cloud and air, without a ground termination;
first return stroke - first stroke to ground of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge (the stepped leader
and attachment process precede the first return stroke);
subsequent stroke - subsequent stroke to ground that follows a previous (return) stroke in the same
multiplicity - number of first and subsequent strokes in a cloud-to-ground lightning flash.
The main relevant lightnings of this report are those occurred from cloud to ground. Common lightning strike characteristics are:
Front of the lightning current
Current as high as 300 kA, but the average value is around 20 kA. For design of lightning protection of explosive danger objects the computing value is considered 200 kA.
The steepness (tgα) of the front of the lightning current curve usually is 5-10 kA/ µs, sometime reaches 80
kA/ µs and for computing value is considered 60 kA/ µs. In IEC 62305-1 for calculation are defined 3 types
of lightning waves:
Positive first stroke (di/dt not significative)
Negative first stroke (di/dt=100kA/µs)
Negative subsequent stroke (di/dt=200kA/µs)
The main return stroke is approximately 30 microseconds in duration
It is observed 4 – 16, but in average there 3-4 return strokes per lightning strike
Typical lightning duration is 20 - 50 milliseconds, but sometime the total duration of repeated lightning
reaches the total duration of repeated lightning reaches 1.5 s.
The wavelength of the lightning current is usually 1.5-10 µs, but sometime reaches 20-100 µs and the
computing value is considered 50 µs.
Temperature can reach almost 50000 oC, but usually is around 20000 oC.
Lightning severity is characterized by different parameters:
urrent derivative
Each characteristic is connected to one or several lightning effects on installations. For example, charge is connected to erosion and piercing, specific energy to temperature rise, peak current to magnetic field, induced voltages, ground voltage rise, etc.
Usually as basic characteristics of lightning impact accepted the intensity of the discharge and the peak current, in
kA, respectively absolute peak current, because of two possible polarizations charges. Discharge with greater
intensity is due to the large peak current very well detectable from sensors system of meteorological stations. In
general intensity maps enabling to asses expected lightning intensity can be easy produced. As an example, the
Figure 2-2 shows lightning between the cloud and ground at peak current greater than 200 kA in the Slovak Republic and the surrounding area for the years 2002 - 2010.
Lightning between the cloud and ground at peak current greater than 200 kA in the Slovak
Republic and the surrounding area for the years 2002 - 2010
It should be noted, however, that generally is very complicated and hazardous to wrong conclusions to estimate
number or probability of extreme values of lightning characteristics. Each estimate of probability of extreme values of lightning characteristics has to be accompanied by information for the sources of the data, method of the
calculations and with explanation for the limits of this estimation.
For extreme peak current, for example, there are at least 2 ways to estimate the number of lightning flash greater
than 200kA:
the first method is an extrapolation of lognormal probability based on Cigré (Electra n°41 and 69).
the second is LLS data’s
The both are quiet right on average current values, but false for higher current values and that they overestimate
number of high values for different reasons.
Lightning damage falls into two main categories:
Physical damage (as results mainly of so called direct lightning hits/strikes or primary effects) - fire and
destruction of structures. More precise, physical damage could appear also from the consequence of
sparking due to overvoltage coming from external lines (so called indirect effects). The most common
technology for dealing with this effect is to divert the strike energy to a properly grounded lightning rod
or cabling system - lightning protection system (LPS).
Failure to electrical and electronic systems - They are approximately 1000 times more likely to occur
than physical damage for any given facility. Secondary effects are the damages caused to sensitive electronic devices, electrical networks and systems. The most commonly observed effects are:
Direct Energization - due the Electromagnetic Induction (EMIn). It is the most obvious and potentially damaging secondary effect of lightning. A strike on the electrical cabling or other conduc-
tive pathways routed to a facility can introduce dangerous currents leading to energy surges into
equipment connected at both ends of the pathway. Although the strike may be a considerable
distance from the facility, it may be easily introduced into that facility by cabling, railroad
tracks or even utility piping. Common surge suppression technology is not generally effective
against this effect of lightning.
Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) - due the Electrostatic Induction (ESIn) is forming near field coupling. An enormous electromagnetic field is usually developed in areas adjacent to the strike
path at the moment of discharge. As a result, high currents (several kA) can develop along any
electrically conductive paths to ground within the area affected by this field. Such fields can be
also developed in all lightning strikes including Cloud - To - Cloud events that do not directly
contact earth. Elimination of these common effects cannot be always accomplished through conventional grounding systems. IEC 62305-1 instead EMP defined generally Lightning Electromagnetically Pulse (LEMP) - all electromagnetic effects of lightning current via resistive, inductive
and capacitive coupling that create surges and radiated electromagnetic fields.
o Ground Potential Rise - This effect is formed by resistive coupling that occurs when a ground potential gradient forms in areas adjacent to the earth contact point of a cloud to ground strike. Low
Side Surge is the result of such effect and it is easily the most common point of introduction of
damaging energy into sensitive control and monitoring circuitry. During a lightning induced Ground
Potential Rise event, the ground reference point that electronic systems critically depend upon for
diversion of “excess” energy can actually become a source of this energy. Commonly relied upon
protective devices and their connected grounding systems are simply not designed to handle lightning related energy and may actually become the pathway for this destructive energy to enter the
system. If an ideal low impedance single point grounding system existed in the facility, then resistive coupling due to Low Side Surge would be a non-issue.
Practically from lightning several type of fault that can be affecting the electrical net and equipment of NPPs as
disturbances in the voltage, frequency or phase angle.
In practical terms, relating to safety is very important the lightning hazard to be considered in the extended PSA
depend of the degree of the consequences of the lightning impact to the electric supply needed for the normal
safe operation of NPPs and also in cases of accident conditions. Such analysis could be more general from theoretical point of view but at least should be consider the most probable possible, presenting cases. Such possible cases,
for instance for the conditions of Kozloduy NPP in Bulgaria, are presented here and they are representative for a
lot of other European NPPs:
Loss of the off-site power is defined as interruption to all the connections with the NPP with Electric Energy System (EES).
The Kozloduy site is connected to the EES of Bulgaria at the OSY at voltage levels of 400 kV, 220 kV and 110 kV.
Cross connections between these are made through transformers. The total number of the transmission lines to
which the Kozloduy site can be connected is 17, among which 13 are transit lines and four are radial ones. Normal
and safety buses of VVER 1000 Units 5 and 6 are powered from the main generator, through the auxiliary transformers. A standby power supply is provided from OSY-220 kV. The second standby power to the units is provided
from the standby power supply busbars of the other power unit (Unit 5 is powered from Unit 6 and vice versa). Offsite power supply to the bank pumping stations is provided from OSY-220 kV, and the redundancy is provided from
the Bukyovtsy substation of 110 kV.
Generally, a design solution for LOOP is to transfer the house load to the reserve lines from the 220 or 110 kV
power grids. The switchover is automatic. If the 110 kV grid is available but the automatic switchover fails, operators can make the connection manually.
In principle, house load operation is possible as the first defence line against the loss of the 400 kV grid connections. However, the plant tested the house-load capability and came to the conclusion that this mode of operation
is rather unstable and therefore is not considered by the plant as a reliable source for emergency situations.
If this automatic switchover is successful, the plant can continue the house-load operation. If the main grid, backup grid or house-load operation are not possible, the plant safety buses are powered from the Diesel Generations
(DGs). Each train of the emergency power supply system is capable of ensuring a safe shutdown state in all design
The Bank Pumping Station (BPS) has DG, which supply the emergency service water pumps, shaft pumping stations,
fire annunciation installation and fire extinguishing in the BPS and their supporting systems. The BPS is equipped
with two DG sets. Two accumulator batteries are installed in the BPS to guarantee uninterrupted power supply to
the most important consumers.
The Spent Fuel Pools (SFPs) rely essentially on the same cooling and electric supply systems as the reactor.
Loss of off-site power and loss of the ordinary back-up Alternating Current (AC) power sources
Each of VVER 1000 Units 5 and 6 has one additional independent DG with nominal power of 5.2 MW. These DGs are
located in a container located on a platform, 1m above ground and belong to Class-4 equipment in accordance
with OPB-88/97, and in seismic category 2. The Additional DGs are in hotstand-by mode. These DGs can power
consumers to allow for heat removal from the primary as well as the secondary systems total fuel and oil reserve
of additional DGs ensure continuous operation for more than 4 days.
In case all AC power is lost, the accumulator battery can supply Direct Current (DC)/AC power to the category-1
safety buses, i.e. for which uninterruptible power supply (UPS) shall be ensured. There are three batteries ensuring 3x100% redundancy at each Unit. In addition to the station batteries with discharge time of 10 hours, there is a
common plant accumulator battery, which powers a computer-based information system, and which can be
charged from the additional DG.
Other very important aspect of the lightning hazard which has to be considering in the extended PSA refers to the
relevant effects on the electronic and computer systems, communication systems and digital I&C.
The topic of lightning can be essential for nowadays plants widely using digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C).
Microprocessors and integrated circuits are subject to weakening damage from reverse electrical energy as little as
one micro joule comparing with wires that withstands several kJ. Even if modern electronic systems include intricate circuitry designed to filter such transients, there is a limit to their effectiveness. If the effective surge is
large enough, as in a lightning related event, damage can occur and performance will be affected. When the accumulated damage reaches a critical level, the component will fail. Unpleasant point of this conclusion is that
lightning effects could form common cause failure which could put out of operation several or all control trains. If
extreme lightning strike occurs than Computer Systems, Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), Input/Output
(I/O) cards could demonstrate symptoms of degraded performance as unexplained data loss, errors in data transmission for networked systems, bios errors, system slowdowns, erratic behavior, unexplained lockups operation,
reboot of computer systems etc.
To summarize above given points:
the lightning does not have to strike directly a facility, to cause real damage.
protection currently in place may be appropriate for normal surges caused by load switching and utility transients, but could not be effective against extreme lightning. Inappropriate protection may
even put system equipment at greater risk by providing a pathway through sensitive equipment.
to provide highly reliable protection, a lightning protection system design must address direct strikes,
energization of all incoming lines, Electro-Magnetic Pulse, and the effects of Ground Potential Rise.
2.2 LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST EVENTS
The lightning is one of the three most common causes of events caused by external hazards in nuclear power
plants [5]. Below given pictures, Figure 2-3 and Figure 2-4, overtaken from [5] illustrate distribution of external
events in Germany and France caused by variety of external hazards.
Distribution of external hazard related events in Germany
Distribution of external hazard related events in France
The illustrated information in the both figures could be considered only as fact for distribution of external hazards, but will be very useful one more precise analysis of the events relevant to 13 % and 27 % lightning strikes in
Germany and France, for instance - which part of these lightning strikes have affected some NPPs in the both
countries? Thence the consideration is to what extent it is necessary an examination of lightning hazards in the
PSA? And on the other hand – is this available or can it be collected enough information for detailed development
of the lightning hazards in the PSA?
Further, more consideration is needed on where are the lightning hazards as assessment of the end users in the list
of the hazards needed for involvement in the extended PSA? Undisputable the lightning hazards should be subject
of the extended PSA because the survey in the frame of WP10 between the end users shown (Figure 2-5) that the
lightning is among the ten external hazards most often considered by the respondents [35].
Distribution of external hazard related events from ASAMPSA_E End-Users survey
Some safety significant events caused by the lightnings in Europe or in other countries (ASAMPSA_E - WP10 - D10 3
- high amplitude external hazards) are shown in the table 2-1. Even very distant lightning events may cause electrical disturbances (e.g. Sweden 13/06/2008).
Table 2-1. Description of some safety significant events caused by the lightnings
Brief description of the consequences for the NPP
Lightning strike in the network,
strong voltage dip, in the further
course of events, Rupture of a
Failure of the turbine-generator
control system and other electronic and electrical systems,
Triggering a RESA and other
Triggering of the 220 kV power
supply and emergency power
Grid disturbance due to
Lightning (50-60 km out
in the grid)
Trip of reactor coolant pumps
The event shows that an external
event can cause electrical disturbance within the plant.
Reactor trip, LOOP,
containment isolation,
Reactor trip, LOOP
Risk for dry-out
2.3 BASIC REQUIREMENTS ON L1 PSA
The basic requirements on L1 PSA are given in many good practices agency guidelines and national regulatory
guides, e.g. the publications [7], [15] and other. In this report it is appropriate to display the stages in accordance
with the Section 6 of [7] general methodology for internal and external hazards, as follow:
Collection of initial information on internal and external hazards;
Hazard identification, including single and combined hazards;
Hazard screening analysis, both quantitative and qualitative;
Bounding assessment;
Basic requirements on L1 PSA and above stages have to be applied for lightning in the extended PSA.
Another, widely used framework of lightning risk assessment accepts the standard IEC 62305-2 objectives, e.g.:
evaluate the frequency of dangerous events,
evaluate the needs of lightning protection,
define lightning protection,
evaluate the residual risk, and
comply with standard or regulations,
which should include hazard analyses, but for this purpose basic data describing lightning distribution, lightning
parameters and some supplementary datas are needed. Supplementary data are formed by additional internal and
Internal supplementary data are represented by layout of civil structures containing sensitive equipment as well as
surrounding structures that can be affected by lightning impact, list of sensitive equipment’s which failures affect
plant safety function and design and qualification of lightning protection system. Internal supplementary data
should contain location of outside objects that use or store flammable, explosive or poisoning materials.
External supplementary data should cover list of external natural formations (forest, flammable fields) and industrial facilities that which fires and/or accident can could be induced by lightning strike and are capable of affecting nuclear safety and/or performance of the plant / facility of interest.
The analysis of the lightning hazards in the extended PSA should include and the assessments of the damages,
standardized with IEC 62305-2 i.e. there are necessary also data for the all type of damages. Damage caused by
lightning are associated with respective losses (damages), which are subdivided into:
loss of life (LL);
loss of public services (LPS);
loss of cultural heritage (LCH);
economic loss (EL) - buildings, outdoor facilities and the contents are property networks for public
services and loss of activity (LA).
The loss of species LL, LPS and LCH are considered as loss of social values, and the loss of species EL and LA - as
These losses are not fully relevant to nuclear power plants safety analysis and should be adapted, as far as still
valid and should be used IEC 62305-2. It is expected these types of loss to be not maintained in the next revision of
the standard in 2018.
3 DATABASE ON LIGHTNING PHENOMENA
This section deals with database creating which is necessary for assessment of the frequency and magnitude of
lightnings as well as for evaluation of the impact of lightning on the plant. Section also briefly discusses topic of
plant database to support lightning hazard analyses.
3.1 LIST OF DATA REQUIRED FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT
Basic data that are necessary to perform estimation of frequency are data describing lightning quantities and features of plant regarding lightning effects.
Lightning strikes can be described by isokeraunic maps providing information about distribution of lightning intensities for area of interest.
Lightning strikes parameters are usually derived from keraunic local level (keraunic local number), i.e. of the
average number of storm days per year in the locality. Meteorological institutes keep statistics storms in shape
isokeraunic curves, which are the flowlines of such places on the map that have the same number of storm days
per year. Examples of isokeraunic maps of the Slovak Republic describing average storm days per year is shown in
Figure 3-1 and the similar map of Bulgaria in Figure 3-2. It is assumed that the distribution of recorded parameters
is described by normal distribution (of random variables). This assumption can be demonstrated by many publicly
available data, e.g. [28]. Consequently based on the distribution of storm days, it is possible to assess the probability of occurrence particular parameters describing features of lightning strikes as stated in the standard IEC
62305, detailed in section 4.1.
Isokeraunic map of the Slovak Republic
Isokeraunic map of Bulgaria
Such maps, as in Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2, can be used as input to assess lightning strike density. For the Slovak
Republic it is shown in
Table 3-1 Map referred in: Transmission and Distribution Electrical Engineering [39]
Average number of storm days
Number of flashes per km2 per
Year (Limits)
0,1 to 0,5
0,15 to 1
0,3 to 3
0,6 to 5
0,8 to 8
1,2 to 10
1,8 to 12
The lightning strike density in Bulgaria depend of intensity of lightning activity [36] is shown in Table 3-2.
Table 3-2. Lightning strike density in Bulgaria
Intensity of lightning activity hours per year
Flashes per km2 per Year
According to a French study [45] the thunderstorm activity has long been defined by the keraunic level (Nk) that is
to say "the number of days per year where we heard the thunder." In France, Météorage calculates a value equivalent to keraunic level, the number of thunderstorm days, from measurements of the lightning detection network.
For each city, this number is calculated from the Lightning Database and represents an average over the last 10
years. The mean number of stormy days in France is 11.30.
The criterion of the number of thunderstorm days does not characterize the importance of thunderstorms. Indeed
a single lightning strike or a violent storm will be recognized in the same way. The best representation of thunderstorm activity is the density of arcs (Da) which is the number of arcs of lightning per km² per year. The lightning
detection network used by Météorage allows direct measurement of this magnitude. The average value of the
density of arcs, in France, is 1.59/ km2/year.
The density of flashes (Df), generally used in normative term, can be deduced from the density of bows by the
Df = Da / 2.1
The French study [45] shows that 50% of lightning strikes have an intensity lower than 50 kA and 99% higher NCI200 kA.
According the last French definitions the lightning occurrence is characterized by the « Ground flash density » Ng
given by lightning location systems (LLS), without referring to « keraunic level » Nk used in the past. Nk is now
derived from Ng (with Nk=Ng/10) since a long time, and in the next edition of the 62305 standard, Nk is expected
totally to be disappear from the standard. If there are no local LLS to evaluate Ng, like in desert or ocean, the
The average number of lightning strikes in Europe, according [14] is ranging from 0.1 to 4 per km2 per year. The
highest annual average per km2 per year in mountain areas to 7.9 lightning strikes is shown on Figure 3-3. There
are major differences between months during the year. The largest number, up to 42 strokes in the month of July
is shown on Figure 3-4.
Annual detected lightning flash density
Detected lightning flash density for July
Finally in order to be able to assess frequency of lightning strikes and to evaluate their effects following category
of data are required
Basic data: ground flash density per km2 (or per another reasonable square unit which is suitable for further analysis) having particular magnitude (e.g. current peak, charge, specific energy etc.). Basic data
should be site specific.
Supplementary data: These data provide description of safety relevant components or external facilities /
formation that can produce lightning induced initiating events. Supplementary data shall be plant specific.
As a precondition to be defined and introduced an uniform data taxonomy which to be used in formulas that evaluate lightning impact, could be summarized the basic data in Table 3-3 as follows.
Table 3-3 List of basic data (parameters)
f(ip)di
The fraction of lightning flashes that have first return stroke
peak currents (ip) in the interval between i and i+di.
Peak current (prospective return-stroke peak current)
Ground flash density - number of lightning flashes that strike a
[km2 x year-1]
unit area in a given region in a year
Number of thunderstorm days - thunderstorm day is normally
defined as the local calendar day in which
thunder is heard by meteorological observers
Attractive radius - R=f(ip, h)
Derivative of the magnetic field of electromagnetic field generated by first and subsequent return strokes
Important note is that among these selected basic parameters (Table 3-1) and also among the all 13 lightning parameters (quoted in table 3 of IEC 62305-1), a very few have available regional statistics. This shortcoming should
be gradually eliminated with the development of network monitoring lightning.
3.2 EXTERNAL DATA SOURCES
In accordance with the recommendations of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) in the IEC
62858:2015 [39], the lightning density based on lightning location systems should be applied as primary input parameter for the evaluation of the lightning risk on buildings and structures using the methods of the IEC 62305-2
(Protection against lightning – Risk management) [6].
The lightning ground flash density NG is defined in the Table 3-1 above. The number of lightning flashes to ground
[km2 x year-1] is derived from data provided by LLS – network of lightning sensors that work together to detect and
geolocate lightning events within the area of the system’s coverage.
As far as IEC 62858 defines minimum level of quality acceptable for LLS, in this document is appropriate indication
of some basics. The lack of common rule for defining requirements either for their performance or for the elaboration of the measured data request the application of measures to make reliable and homogeneous the values of NG
obtained from LLS in various countries, like these presented in IEC 62858 [39]. Motivations for that are also:
on the one hand - the International Standard IEC 62858:2015 was approved by CENELEC as a European
Standard without any modification, and
on the other hand - IEC 62858:2015 has to be implemented at national level in EU until 09 June 2016 by
publication of an identical national standard or by endorsement.
For application of the method based on the lightning ground flash density N G there are required lightning data from
LLS for a least ten years and taking into account the changes in the global meteorology, the newest data used not
being older than five years.
The value of the median location accuracy of LLS for CG strokes shall be better than 500 m in all regions in the
territory over which NG has to be computed, i.e. the grid should be with cells finer than 1 km x1 km, by central
position of the sensor in every cell.
In accordance with the IEC 62858 the lightning data (NG in km2 x year-1) have to be evaluated as a raster map and
the grid size shall be chosen in such way that the dimensions of each cell (Acell – area in km2) and the number of
years (Tobs – observation period in years) considered both comply with the minimum requirements obtained from
Formula (2.2-3), as follow:
NG x Tobs x Acell ≥ 80
i.e. following poisson distribution and the law of rare events, thus obtaining an uncertainty of less than 20 % at 90
% confidence level. In order to avoid edge effects for the smallest cell (which should be such that it contains at
least 80 flashes), the NG value shall be obtained by integrating a finer sub-grid of 1 km x 1 km resolution.
The performance characteristics of a LLS can be evaluated using variety of techniques [38] mong which more suitable for studies of lightning properties are:
network self-reference,
video camera studies,
inter-comparison among networks.
In one further discussion for application of the above presented method for definition of the lightning ground flash
density NG on the basis of lightning data from LLS, could be included also additional considerations, as the next
the locations of the LPS to be defined on the basis on the recommended in [46] distance between an LPS
down-conductor and the protected object in air, which should be greater than Dair given in meters:
Dair = 0.12Z + 0.1l
Z is the impedance of LPS grounding system under direct lightning strike conditions and l is the distance between
the point of interest and the LPS grounding system. For a point in the immediate vicinity of ground surface, l ≈ 0
this reduces to Dair=0.12Z (m)
the distance between the LPS grounding system and buried metallic services to be greater than Dsoil given in meters by
Dsoil = I Z Eb
I is the lightning peak current, and Eb is the breakdown electric field in the soil.
Other theories for lightning striking distance versus return-stroke peak current are presented in the Figure 3-6.
Striking distance versus return-stroke peak current
Curve 1, Golde (1945); Curve 2, Wagner (1963); Curve 3, Love (1973); Curve 4, Ruhling (1972)
x - theory of Davis (1962);
o - estimates from two-dimensional photographs by Eriksson (1978);
� - estimates from three-dimensional photography by Eriksson (1978), adapted from Golde (1977) and
Eriksson (1978).
So far as one or a combination of these techniques can be used for evaluation of performance characteristics of
given LLSs, it is important the identification and consideration of the influenced factors for strengths and weaknesses of the methods used in order to obtain reliable estimates of LLS performance characteristics.
Other approach for data gathering is to use the plant specific data for installations affected by lightning, which are
the ideal, but have to be used only as partial data source, having low statistical significance, to determine frequency of lightning induced initiating events, it means events caused by direct or indirect strikes near power lines
Farther options are formed by using isokeraunic maps or results of specific lightning measures that are produced
by local meteorological institutes. Such data can provide histograms of annual frequency (lightning strike density)
versus lightning intensity (peak current).
Last, the less desirable option is usage of generic data.
Sources of supplementary data containing information regarding safety significant equipment including their localization and lightning protection system can be found in plant detail design documentation.
Sources of supplementary data providing information regarding external industrial facilities and natural formation
(that can trigger lightning induced initiating event) are formed by external hazard analyses.
3.3 PLANT DATABASE
Plant database should integrate all data that are necessary to assess lighting hazard. Usage of database is not
necessary condition to perform hazard analysis. However such database facilitates central maintenance of all
relevant data, helps to keep data consistency and integrity (i.e. ensures that all members of lightning team use
the same data sources) and can provide significant support in documentation process.
Based on experience (due to the small overall number of occurrences) further it is recommended to monitor the
area around the nuclear facility at least 50 km, taking into account some examples, for instance in Sweden (Table
2-1), that even very distant lightning events may cause electrical disturbances.
4 LIGHTNING HAZARD ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES
This section introduced basic methodology to evaluate parameterized frequency of lightning strikes as well as the
approach how to evaluate the impact of the strike on plant’ equipment, i.e. this section forms background data
for fragility analysis. It considers reservation/understanding for incomplete detailed coverage from the basic
methodology of the lightning effects. No existing methodologies assess the probability of all effects of the lightning. The approach in this report could be developed hereafter with ramification for each effect, how far it is
useful and reliable about safety aspects.
In general it is recognized that the degree of uncertainty in estimating risk due to accidents caused by lightning
events tends to be greater than that associated with other accident-initiating events that have been analyzed.
Some uncertainties stem from less experience in analysing this kind of event and have to say the probability analysis of the lightning hazards is one relatively new area, also no enough full or suitable data – in the most of time the
damage from lightning are very limited and without any consequence on safety. The greater uncertainties are in
variability of lightning (striking point and characteristics of lightning current) and the great difficulty is to demonstrate that there is no “weak point” in the lightning protection and that consequences will be always limited and
acceptable. That’s why practically may rely with greater confidence on engineering judgments and expert opinions.
In the lightning hazard assessment methodology for the aim of the extended PSA the potential consequences have
to be in the front of the attention, but in the selection of lightning events for a detailed risk analysis have to accent also to the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the lightning. The results of the lightning event analysis
will be used as input to the PSA in defining initiating events, in developing event and fault trees for accidentsequence and system analysis, and in quantifying accident sequences.
The scope and time consumption of analysis suggested here for lightning event is commensurate with the overall
objectives of this document, and presented current state of the art in analysing risks from lightning events. Since
such analyses are still in a developmental stage, it can be expected that the methods used in the analysis of lightning events can undergo significant changes as the PSA community gains experience in the treatment of lightning
events in PSAs.
Process of considering lightning events in PSA faces two fundamentally different types of variability. First of them
is fundamental to the phenomenon parametrization - annual frequency occurrence of event having particular magnitude. Second variability can be formed by incomplete knowledge about the rep-presentation and evaluation of
impact of lightning - fragility analysis.
This section covers both frequency assessment and fragility analysis.
4.1 PARAMETRIZATION AND LIGHTNING STRIKE FREQUENCY ASSESSMENT
This section covers two basic areas. They are frequency assessment and robust screening.
Characterizing a complex hazard phenomenon by a single parameter like frequency is generally inadequate. For
example even if map presented in the next figure provides information describing lightning distribution this information is insufficient to evaluate potential impact of lightning strike on particular facility.
Global distribution of lightning April 1995 - February 2003
Effects of lightning are connected to following parameters, described in Table 3-1 above:
Ng (ground flash density)
Imax (peak current)
Di/dt (current derivative)
W (specific energy)
The basic parameters that are used to describe lightning hazard and form input for the response analysis are Ng
and ip. They are usually presented in the form of a hazard curve. Such hazard curves can be based on generic or
plant specific data. The uncertainties in the intensities values are represented by developing a family of hazard
curves having assigned probability to each hazard curve. The summation of probabilities assigned over the family
of hazard curves is unity.
In general it is assumed that Ng has normal distribution and ip lognormal distribution. These theoretical distributions of lightning parameters are very useful and effective around average values. But for higher values of lightning parameters, they get false because they tend to zero at infinity, but it is know that the real values of lightning are finite because of the limited thickness of troposphere.
So, the analyse event of classical values of lightning parameters is possible with these lognormal distributions, but
not to evaluate extreme events frequencies. The last should be treated another way.
4.1.1 DEVELOPMENT OF GENERIC HAZARD CURVE
Generic hazard curve relies on number of storm days or on generic values of N g, e.g.table 3.1. Peak current ip can
be based on IEEE data –Figure 4-2 from [16]. It is noted that this curve is valid only to 200 kA.
Probability of stroke current exceeding abscissa for strokes to flat ground
Better estimation can be achieved by the peak-current distribution of negative ground flashes suggested by IEEE,
obtained by Berger can be approximated by two straight lines (when plotted by probability) intersecting at 20 kA.
According to this description, for ip ≤ 20 kA the median value is 61.1 kA and the standard deviation is
for ip > 20 kA, the median value is 33.3 kA and the standard deviation is
Typical output of lightning hazard curve is presented in the picture shown on Figure 4-3.
Curve of exceedance frequency versus lightning intensity
Hazard curve can be generally expressed in terms of a limited number of discrete ranges of variables.
4.1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIFIC HAZARD CURVE
The lightning strike frequency assessment can be based on site specific data or on appropriate generic data.
The assessment based on site specific data can use the approach consists from direct evaluation if there is available plant history, i.e. number of failures over number of all events. It is obvious that this one is a rare and hardly
applicable case requiring rich plant history and specific equipment for lightning registering.
In the assessment based on generic data, the basic inputs for hazard analysis are lightning strike density (e.g. per
km2) and data describing lightning intensity. Such estimations should take in account quality and efficiency of
registration stations, e.g. 80% efficiency introduces substantial variability into gathered data. These data are organized into histograms containing intensity of lightning strikes versus annual frequency. Such data enables interval estimations frequency as well as bound estimation of intensity. In this case the lightning damage potential can
be expressed by lightning intensity and current in kA, and consists in processing of the site specific meteorological
Conditional probability of SSC failure (
Pcf = Fs∙Pip
represents frequency probability that SSC or relevant area is affected by lightning strike (or lightning
strike side effect) having particular ip
represents probability that SSC is damaged by effect evoked by lightning current ip
There are discussions concerning the applicability of the IEC 62305, in particular should be or not rely on 62305-2
risk assessment for NPPs sites. The cited reasons of the basis of experience of EDF [42] are:
IEC 62305-2 doesn’t address safety related questions
IEC 62305-2 calculation are not adapted for nuclear sites. EDF compared 62305-2 risk assessment with experience and real damages on its nuclear fleet, and published the results in ICLP 2014 in Shanghai [42].
The conclusion there is that the standardized calculation overestimated the risk of a factor 100 to 1000,
and consequently that 62305-2 risk assemement could not be use on nuclear sites to evaluate risk, nor to
select lightning protection, because identified weaknesses are just calculation artefacts.
It is possible in the next edition of IEC 62305-2 (2018), nuclear power plants to be retired from the scope of the
standard, but for the present no common ground to reject the application of existing IEC 62305-2, though perhaps
the overestimated risk means reinsurance with resized protection. It can be noted, at that time EDF is still working
with the first edition of IEC 62305-2 (2006) in accordance with French regulation [42].
Following sections introduce probabilistic approach based mainly on the individual parts of the IEC 62305 as are,
[5], [6], [7], [8] and [9].
Lightning current limit ip of high-risk considered by quoted standards is 200 kA, which is also indicated in the most
of the available literature as the most likelihood case covering 99% of lightning strikes. This limit is also taken as
design the basis for lightning protective measures, e.g. earthing, shielding etc. Even those 99% are not strictly
scientifically proven, the use of such a high value of 200 kA design brings more security of the protection.
4.2.1 ASSESMENT OF PROBABILITY THAT SSC OR RELEVANT AREA IS AFFECTED
Assessment of probability that SSC is affected by lightning strike or lightning strike side effect having particular ip
depends on location of SSCs of interest. SSCs can be located on terrain as pipe and grid lines or are built in civil
structures as I&C systems. If we assume ground flash density used to develop hazard curve is distributed over basic
and propable damage
geneous and stationary then can be expressed as
With the assumption that product
. If the process of lightning flashes is treated as homo.
unit area uniformly2 than frequency / probability that relevant area A is affected by lightning strike can be estimated as
frequency of lighting strike having peak current ip
If Fs for alone building in flat terrain is estimated then modified approach based on IEC 62305-2, Annex A [9], can
be used where A is replaced by so called effective area Ae.3
There will be two basic cases: Relevant SSC can be located in or part of civil structure which is protected against
direct strike or SSC is in area which is unprotected against direct strike, e.g. heating pipe line, small tanks etc.
A. If SSC is located in area which is not protected against direct lightning strike then Fs estimation is based
on equation E-2
If SSC is located in area which is protected against direct lightning strike then Fs estimation is still based
on equation E-2 but ip can be adjusted according level protection features -Table 4-1
It is necessary to take into account that lightning protection as such is based on IEC requirements. IEC distinguishes
4 levels of protections and uses several methods as rolling sphere and angle methods.
Table 4-1 Positioning of air terminals according to the protection levels defined by the IEC standards
However; considering uniform distribution can be in some cases unreasonable due to geometry of civil structures
because tallest structure will attract more flashes, i.e. it can lead to underestimation of some structures and to overestimatiom flates part of examined area.
Document [41] presents equation
A structure lightning protection system based on level I would not allow a return stroke peak current larger than
2.9 kA to penetrate the lightning protection system. The corresponding currents for levels II, III, IV are 5.4, 10.1
and 15.7 kA, respectively. Further text brings basic information regarding typical lightning protection systems.
Protection zones formed by high buildings
In general different altitude of each building in the examined area will attract a variety of lightning, depending on
their intensity. This can create protection zones, where the taller buildings (chimney, cooling tower) download
lightning current through its air-termination system and thus prevent either direct threat to an important object or
mitigate the effects of electromagnetic fields on the building with sensitive equipment. A good guide can be found
Several methods are published to calculate this strike distance (protection area), in other words the length of the
upward discharge, e.g.:
Darveniza [18]
Whitehead [21]
It is obvious that results calculated with the higher ip can differ significantly. Therefore, it is recommended to use
E-3 by standards.
Fig. 4-4 Protective features of neighbouring buildings
1-chimney, 2-building containing sensitive equipment, 3-cooling tower
In such way one can determine the size of the protection zone. Above presented picture demonstrates a protective
effect of neighbouring buildings. Graphical representation of the size of the radius of the protective sphere in
dependency on lightning intensity is shown in the next chart.
Strike distance dependence on the ip [kA]
This way can use to screen cases when the sensitive buildings; that are in the protection zone of the others high
buildings; will be hit by direct lightning strike. But this assumption holds only in case if there is no common airtermination system.
Side effect of such protective features is that the level of electromagnetic field created by a lightning strike to
neighbouring building will be around and inside of building containing sensitive equipment much lower. On the
graph you can see attenuation of the intensity of the magnetic field depending on the distance from the strike
Intensity of magnetic field as a function of the distance between buildings
Presented graph demonstrates decreasing of the intensity of the magnetic field depending on the (air) distance
according intensity lightning. This effect ensures fast decreasing magnetic field crated by lightning to the design
level event if initial strike exceeded more than 200 kA. However; necessary conditions is appropriate level of
This attenuation depends on the construction of the building itself (e.g. building material steel or reinforced concrete etc.).
Rolling sphere and Protective angle
Almost in all countries, e.g. Bulgarian regulation [36], those methods are used. Their application is fully driven by
IEC standards. In general rolling sphere and Protective angle/cone methods are used to determine position and
height of the air termination rods.
Determination of lightning zone by method of the “notional/fictitious rolling sphere”
Protective angle/cone - Volume protected by an air-termination conductor
When assessing the risk from lightning, the level of the lightning protection is determined depend of two components:
RD - component related to direct lightning strikes on the protected object, referring to physical damage
as a result of dangerous arcing at the site, leading to a fire or complete or partial demolition of buildings and
RI - component related to direct lightning strikes on networks for public services related to the protected
object, referring to physical damage (fire or total or partial destruction resulting from dangerous arcing be-tween
internal fittings and metal parts, which are usually located at the input of public service networks in the protected
object) arising from lightning currents carried through or incoming public service networks.
The calculation of the needed level of the lightning protection is dependent on the calculated value of RD for the
relevant types of the damages.
Table 4-2a Level of the lightning protection
Levels of the lightning protection
According to HSE (Failure Rate and Event Data for use within Risk Assessments (28/06/2012) [47] the following
formula is used to calculate the number of dangerous events for the structure:
ND=Lgfd×A×Floc×10-6
Lgfd = lightning ground flash density (/km2/year)
Floc = location factor of the structure (see table below)
A = area of interest (m2).
The value of the correction factor Floc is:
0.25 - Surrounded by higher objects or trees
0.5 - Surrounded by objects or trees of the same height or smaller
1.0 - No other objects in the area
2.0 - No other objects in the area and on top of a hill or knoll
HSE [47] includes two additional items in the above Table 4.2
Table 4-2b Level of the lightning protection
Air-termination system conforming to LPS
I and a continuous metal or reinforced
concrete framework acting as a natural
down-conductor system.
Metal roof or an air-termination system,
possibly including natural components,
with complete protection of any roof
installations against direct lightning
strikes and a continuous metal or reinforced concrete framework acting as a
natural down-conductor system.
The radius of the notional/fictitious rolling sphere is determined depend of the level of the lightning protection:
Table 4-3Radius of the notional/fictitious rolling sphere
Radius of the notional/fictitious rolling sphere, m
The approach for estimation of probability of failure of relevant components used in [36] is similar as presented in
the section 4.2.2.
4.2.2 ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF RELEVANT COMPONENTS
Based on E-1 the purpose is to estimate value of
representing probability that SSC is damaged by effect evoked
by lightning current ip. Generally can be used two methods:
Approach based on IEC
4.2.2.1 Approach based on IEC
Approach based on IEC brings significant simplification of work. This approach is based on assumption that evaluated object has implemented appropriate lightning protection level which was discussed in section 4.2.1. IEC approach can be used only for the cases when ip does not exceed 200 kA. Consequence of IEC approach usage is that
probability of damage is the same for ip in range
IEC use risk categories R that correspond with
from E-1.
The primary cause of damage is the lightning current depending on the location of the flash. The standard [9]
states four strike locations and three kinds of damages. Consequently combination of targets and kind damages
can evoke several types of losses. For the purpose of this report are relevant only following of them:
RB – damage caused by hazardous sparking inside the building, which can initiate fire or explosion – covers the
case of lightning strike to the analysed building
RC – failure of internal systems due to LEMP – covers the case of lightning strike to the analysed building
RM – failure of internal systems due to LEMP – covers the case of lightning strike near analysed building
RV – damage caused by the lightning current the transmitted over or along the inlet of utility networks – covers
the case of lightning strike near analysed building
RW – failure of internal systems due to surges induced into the supply line and transferring into the building –
covers the case of lightning strike near analysed building
RZ – failure of internal systems due to surges induced into the supply line and transferring into the building – covers the case of lightning strike close to the lines (structures) connected to the analysed building
Each of the mentioned items, RB, RC, RM, RV, RW, RZ, can be estimated by the using following equation:
Nx – the number of dangerous events per year, i.e. frequency of event assessed in section 3.1
Px – the likelihood of damage of buildings internal structures which is evaluated according standard [9] and depends on level of building LPS as well as on LPS of individual devices, quality of shielding, design of ground system etc.
Lx – resulting loss term wraps further individual factors that influence potential damage.
Equations to estimate particular R are:
Further details can be found in [9] and its specific annexes. Various free software utilities based on this standard
to facilitate calculations can be used, e.g. “IEC Risk assessment calculator” or “Lightning risk assessment calculations” and more.
Above presented approach enables quite convenient and fast evaluation of potential impact on lightning event.
However, such evaluations can be far conservative because they do not take into account intensity of lightning
(i.e. any category of LPS protections has the same effect on the results of evaluation of
, without considering
real value of electro-magnetic field induced by lightning) and are much suitable for screening purposes.
4.2.2.2. Analytical approach
If area of interest can be not screened out detailed fragility analysis shall be performed, however this analysis
forms very specific activity that should be performed by trained electro engineers.
Lightning creates a very wide frequency range electromagnetic field. Calculations propagation and attenuation
field contains lots of parameters (e.g. Frequency, current, impedance permeability, holes on the panels, use a
shielding, grounding ....).
Basic method to carry out such work can be described as follows:
Estimation of magnetic inductance evoked by lightning strike (see also Figure 3 7):
Ip – Intensity current of lightning strike
A reduction in magnitude of electromagnetic field strength is commonly referred to as Magnetic Field Attenuation.
This reduction can be measured and expressed by decibels (dB). When shielding materials are introduced they
provide this magnetic field attenuation by absorption, reflection, scattering and dispersion.
Calculated magnetic field attenuation can be represented as:
E1 = Field intensity generated on one side of the shield.
E2 = Field intensity received on the other side of the shield.
Of course this assessment is complex topic; this one is not trivial topic, however without providing some attenuation data 3-17 is unusable. May be could be more consider how to solve this topic at least for some specific cases.
The application of the IEC 62305-2 in the methodology above may not to guarantee absolute coherence of terms,
concepts, etc., for example flat terrain and corrections to the heights of buildings, but this standard allows
enough good assessment for practice nowadays.
However, above presented approach forms great simplification. Description of different methods could be find in
the information sources which given resources demonstrates not trivial nature of such kind of analyses [19]. [20],
[21], [22] and [23]. Of them can be summarized that there is no standardized procedure to calculate life expectancy (or expectation for damage) of the surge protection device and each manufacturer offers their own method
based on their experience for calculation life expectancy (or damage).
In addition, is possible to use, for example, the individual parts of IEC EN 61000 family. The main directive for EMC
is Directive 2004/108/EC [27] relating to electromagnetic compatibility and repealing Directive 89/336/EEC and its
modifications Directive 92/31/EEC, Directive 93/68/EEC [CE Marking], Directive 91/263/EEC [TTE/SES].
5 CORRELATED HAZARDS AND COMBINATION OF HAZARDS
/this chapter need improvement in the final version/
Lightning strikes are in general a consequence of storm activity. On the one hand lighting strikes can induce large
spectra of external initiating events like accidents of industrial facilities, wild fires, power grid disturbances
etc…[43], [44].
The following hazards can be listed as correlated/combined with lightning events:
heavy rain and wind due to storm activity,
internal fires induced by direct lightning strike or as a side effect of indirect strike,
releasing of poisoning substances,
accident of industrial facilities which failure can affect safety conditions of the analyzed plant,
agriculture fires (stubble, bale of hay, feeds, etc.),
transport fires explosion on the roads located nearby to the NPP site, etc.
In general, there is none evidence of simple correlation between induced events and lightning strike. May be that
partial exception is formed by wild fires, but ignition of wild fire by lightning strike depends on many factors as
season, humidity etc.
A storm can produce several lightning strikes that simultaneously hit several safety relevant targets, but even if
lightning activity is well mapped, there are no known case of some storm that produced several simultaneous
lightning strikes in small area [to be discussed during the report review].
It could be accepted that in the general case of PSA, the lightning event does not require specific consideration
regarding correlation and combination of hazards. In specific cases, when there are conditions around the plant
characterised with availability of forests or technical facilities which can have a fire hazard, could be used different methods for the assessment of hazard combinations. [to be discussed during the report review].
6 METHODS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS COMBINATIONS
Previous section determined the main possible combinations of hazards induced by lightning, namely: Internal
fires, Releasing of poisoning substances, Forest fires and Accidents of industrial facilities.
6.1 INTERNAL FIRES AND RELEASING OF POISONING SUBSTANCES
Fires induced by direct lightning strikes can occur if when large oil cooled transformers and their lines or storages
of flammable or explosive substances are hit, e.g. hydrogen storages. Conditional probability of such fires can be
assessed on using so called geometric probability if density of lightning is known. The same methods can be used
for Releasing of poisoning substances.
Conditional probability of fires ignited by side effects of lightning can be assessed by using guideline given in [9]
concretely by RB, see section 4.2.2.1.
6.2 ACCIDENTS OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES
Assessment of conditional probabilities of Accidents of industrial facilities requires considering the same methods
as are discussed within sections 3 and 4 (e.g. accident of relevant industrial facility can be induced wild fire that
was induced by lightning).
6.3 FOREST FIRES
Forest fires form quite complex topic because occurrence and sustainability of lightning ignited fires depend on
many factors – environmental variables that are used in various mathematical models applied to predict lightning
fire occurrence. It should be noted that topic of “forest fire” can be freely extend in many other area where natural fuel can be ignited by lightning strike.
6.4 METHODS FOR HAZARD COMBINATIONS
In terms of hazard combination frequency evaluation, the nature of combination has to be taken into account. As
it was derived in [43]: "Hazard correlations discriminate between: (1) Causally connected hazards (cause-effect
relation) where one hazard may cause another hazard; or where one hazard is a prerequisite for a correlated
hazard. (2) Associated hazards which are probable to occur at the same time due to a common root cause" and in
additional, hazard combinations of independent phenomena have been denoted.
IAEA Fault Sequence Analysis (FSA) Methodology
IAEA developed a complementary safety analysis FSA methodology and supporting tool to assist in evaluation of the
impact of extreme events on NPPs [52] [53]. This method utilised both probabilistic and deterministic safety assessment methods to gain the insights of robustness of plant protection including impact on SSCs against the extreme external hazards and its combinations. The method also considers combined load conditions resulting from
the simultaneous occurrence of these hazards. Fundamentally, the FSA method incorporates ‘stress test’ principles
that have been performed in Europe after Fukushima accident. The method considers sufficiency of defence-indepth provisions, including various dependencies, safety margins, application of specific design features, cliff edge
effects, multiple failures, prolonged loss of support systems and the capability of safety important systems for long
term operation [53].
The application of FSA method and supporting tools are implemented at Goesgen-Daeniken NPP, Switzerland and
Medzamor NPP, Armenia. The methodology is described in detail in IAEA paper [53].
Extreme Event Analyzer (EEA) Methodology
Lloyd’s Register Consulting (LRC), in cooperation with IAEA, has further developed the FSA method [54]. LRC developed a value added tool (ExtremeEventAnalyzer (EEA)) to systematically analyze the accident scenarios not
explicitly addressed in the design extension conditions using integrated deterministic and probabilistic approaches.
The tool has incorporated lesson learned from FSA methodology developed by IAEA, which has been verified by
application on Goesgen-Daeniken NPP (Switzerland) and Medzamor NPP (Armenia).
This method utilise an internal initiating events PSA model for assessing the impact of extreme events, including
the consideration of hazard susceptibility limits of SSCs and impact of extreme external hazards. In EEA method, a
number of extreme events (including credible combinations) can be postulated, for example seismic, water levels,
extreme temperature, weather conditions etc. The extreme event analysis is linked directly to the PSA model (in
RiskSpectrum) to ensure that the whole PSA model is included in the evaluation of the impact of the event or
combinations of events. The EEA perform re-quantification of the PSA model including the hazard susceptibility
limits of the SSCs. The outcome of the analysis is to [54] [55]:
identify sensitive scenarios for extreme events;
analyse simultaneous extreme events;
prove robustness of plant design, for individual components and for buildings.
Below is a list of sequential steps to perform while using the EEA method to identify scenarios sensitive for
extreme events [54]:
determine what hazards to include ; this will be site specific and screening criteria may be applied,
determine the components, buildings that can be susceptible to the hazards ; plant data collection and plant
walkdowns are important inputs,
determine initiating events which can be triggered by the hazard,
determine the magnitudes of hazards that will fail the components, the buildings and trigger the initiators,
generate the minimal combinations of events given the occurrence of a hazard or combinations of hazards.
EEA method and tool is utilised in a benchmarking study “Extreme Event Analysis – an application of RiskSpectrum
EEA at Armenian NPP” is performed under co-operation project between LRC, Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center
(NRSC) and Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP). The purpose of the study was to perform a comprehensive and
systematic assessment of robustness and vulnerability of NPPs against the impact of extreme events using EEA
method and tool.
7 BEST PRACTICES (EXAMPLES)
/this chapter need improvement in the final version – other examples/
This report describes how lightning events are selected for detailed evaluation in a PSA including discussion the
methods used to evaluate their frequency and effects.
It is assumed that the basic PSA methods and procedures for internal events presented in the many internationally
accepted standards are generally applicable to all risk contributors, including external events, like lightning.
However, there are several specific aspects for setting establishing separate specialized guidelines reflecting those
specific aspects. Most important, the analysis of lightning events requires the use of specialized methods to address important factors not usually encountered in the analysis of the internal events. These include the assessment of frequency of occurrence versus magnitude for lightning events and the modelling of component and structure failure in terms of variables that describe physical interactions.
Because we are dealing with relatively new area having limited experience, there can be introduced only a few
general recommendation as follows.
If lightning events are deemed to significantly contribute to the overall plant risk, work on analytical models and
data collection should be enhanced in the future. Refined results may eventually reduce the uncertainties. In the
meanwhile, a detailed peer review of the assumptions, models, and input-parameter values is necessary to
achieve consistency between different PSA studies relying heavily on engineering judgment in the treatment of
Since a risk analysis of a lightning event would interact in many of the PSA elements generic to any risk contributor, there is an aim to modularize the steps risk-analysis procedure for lightning events so as to avoid overlaps on
event and fault tree levels.
As practical case is mentioned here the research [37] to improve lightning protection and reduce surges in the
internal network and relay protection circuit of Kozloduy NPP made by High Voltage Technique Laboratory (HVT
Lab.) of Technical University of Sofia (TUS) in Bulgaria. Some of the equipment of HVT Lab is shown in Figures 7-1
Figure 7-1 Impulse voltage generator IP 7.5 / 750 kV
Figure 7-2 Spheres MKF 75
There were modelled of disconnectors switching under electrical voltage 400 kV. Similar processes are under the
influence of lightning in a direct or near lightning strikes. The transients’ wave voltage was measured with amplitude reaching 2,5 kV at terminals of the VT (Figure 7-3). The measured amplitudes of the input voltage of the
relay protection are 250-300 V with a short duration (Figure 7-4).
Wave voltage with amplitude until 2.5 kV
Amplitudes of the input voltage of the relay protection 250-300 V
There are other research of HVT Lab of TUS in Kozloduy NPP and defined recommendations for improvement of the
lightning protection system of the plant.
8 EXTENDED LIGHTNING PSA
In addition to the basic requirements on L1 PSA summarized in [7], [15] etc. specific information is provided in this
section. Overall picture of analysis process from [4] is presented here as Figure 8.1.
Fig. 8-1 Overall picture of analysis process for internal and external hazards, [7]
Based on general description, mainly in [7], methodology to evaluate impact of lightning event can be outlined
into following logical sequence of steps.
Logical diagram for lightning PSA
8.1 STEP 1 - REVIEW PLANT SAFETY
The aim of this step is to determine list of all events that can be evoked by lightning strike. Analysts shall review
the plant safety systems and fundamental safety function from the viewpoint of lightning strike.
This step shall take into account effect of direct and nearby lightning flashes on SSCs. Failures are caused mainly
by the effects of lightning overvoltage’s on electrical and electronic which is induced by effects of lightning current and voltage. Every SSC exposed by the natural influences of lightning discharges and their electromagnetic
fields may damage with certain probability
, see section 4.2.
This step should be based focused on two basic areas:
potential internal events - this part covers mainly
offsite power disturbances
spurious reactor trip and loss of one or several safety trains - potential impact of lightning strike
on I&C or power supply systems
loss of one or several safety trains without reactor trip- potential impact of lightning strike on
I&C or power supply systems
malfunction in operation of main control room
internal fires and explosions (flammable and explosive tanks etc.)
potential external events - this part should be based on results of external hazard analysis mainly influence of external industry and external fires.
This step corresponds with items 1 and 2 in and work should consider information presented in section 3. Outputs
of this step are:
list of internal and external (initiating) events that can threat plant safety
general information like list of relevant plant buildings including information about their lightning protection
lightning protection levels (LPL) and lightning protection zones (LPZs) of particular structures.
8.2 STEP 2 - DEVELOPING SSC LIST
Input of this step is result of step 1. Aim of this step is collection of detailed information (in the greatest extent
possible) to be able to perform fragility analysis. Work should on one hand take into account that the lightning
protection is most of time based on protection at building level, and on the other hand, to use as background PSA
for internal events, internal fire and explosion analysis, external hazard analysis and plant design basis.
Outputs of this step are:
list of plant internal SSCs that if affected by direct lightning strike or lightning strike side effects can trigger events determined in step 1 including data regarding location, shielding, earthing, lightning protection (if appropriate), design data etc.
more detailed description of external events if appropriate input data to evaluate impact of wild fires
8.3 STEP 3 - LIGHTNING HAZARD ANALYSIS
Aim of this step is to estimate lightning hazard curve. Work is based on information presented in section 4.1.
Inputs of this step are data described in section 3 and output of this step is plant hazard curve. It is convenient to
approximate hazard curve by finite number of discrete intervals (e.g. doublets containing CI versus probability).
8.4 STEP 4 - FRAGILITY ANALYSIS
The fragility analysis generally is considered as conditional probability that one or all components will be damaged
by impact of lightning, or in particular from specified phenomenon of lightning, but the aim of lightning fragility
analysis within this report is mainly to estimate conditional probability of occurrence of particular initiating event
determined within step 1.
However, it is obvious that (under scope of this report) such event can be evoked only by lightning damage of
particular components. Given the different possible effects of a lightning strike due to different phenomena (IEM;
direct strike; EMIn; ESIn), should be further develop how to assess the fragility of all important enough components
for safety, if is possible for each type of phenomena. For instance for one component (e.g. cable), should be
clarified what are the specific features to analyse the fragility at a given level of lightning intensity. In addition
shall be clarified the efficiency of the protection system as a function of type and fragility of components and
peak current value.
Work is based mainly on methods described in section 4.2.
Exception is formed for the often occurring combination “lightning – forest fire” indicated in section 6.3. The forest fires form quite complex topic because occurrence and sustainability of lightning ignited fires depend on many
factors – environmental variables that are used in various mathematical models applied to predict lightning fire
occurrence. It should be noted that topic of “forest fire” can be freely extend in many other area where natural
fuel can be ignited by lightning strike, for instance in the agriculture areas [29].
Based on resources quoted in this part, common models to predict lightning fire occurrence are ordinary least
squares regression, binary logistic regression, cellular automaton, weights-of-evidence, generalized linear, negative binomial regression models etc. Most of these models have their limitations for general application. Examples
of environmental variables are:
daily average maximum temperature in the day period before the ignition [°C]
rainfall in the 3 days before the ignition [mm]
daily average relative humidity in the day period before the ignition [%]
daily average wind speed [m/s]
number of strikes on the day of the ignition
lightning current intensity for all strikes [A]
neutralized charge amount for all strikes [C]
return stroke duration [ms]
lightning energy for all strikes [J]
category of forest fuel type of ignition
topography defined by Altitude [m], Slope[%] and Aspect [%]
Further details could be finding in different references [27], [28], [30] and [31]. The information from them shown
that forest fires form specific topic and probability of forest fire ignited by lightning strongly depends on seasonal
and local conditions. For example there is power-law relationship between the size of the area burnt, A, and how
often fires of that size occur [29]:
There is indicated that lightning-fires account for about 90% of the total area burnt during the available period of
data, even though they only account for about 30% of the total number of fires which occurred. This disproportionality can (partly) explained by difficult access to the fireplaces in mountain terrain.
Interesting general observation is that the average chance of fire per stroke is thus estimated to be ~0.4%, which
represents an average chance of fire per flash of ~0.6%, given that there are about 1.5 strokes per lightning flash
on average (in studied case) [29]. This value is within the typical range of values reported for other parts of the
world by giving average values data for Canada 2%, British Colombia in Alberta 0.07%, Finland 0.015% [31]. However, there is none general common method how to estimate general probability of lightning induced fires and regional research shall be always performed. As example this statement is demonstrated in the map shown on Figure
Spatial distribution of the probability of occurrence of lightning-
induced fires in the province of León for the 2002-2007 periods (Probabilities were based on
the logistic model)
Finally, output of Fragility analysis step is formed by frequencies of lightning induced initiating events. In general
frequency of any considered internal initiating event for particular interval from discretized hazard curve will be
Frequency of ith initiating event for nth bin of discretized hazard curve
Frequency of occurrence nth CI from discretized hazard curve
Conditional probability of damage of jth by nth CI which leads to initiating event Fi; initiating, e.g. see E-1.
Frequencies of external events caused by lightning strike will be estimated similarly as frequencies for internal
events. As it was mentioned exception will be formed by wild fires (this topic was discussed in previous text).
8.5 STEP 5 - DEVELOPING LIGHNING EVENT AND FAULT TREES
The aim of this task is in accordance with [7] to outline basic progression of accident scenarios as well as to determine specific human actions if appropriate.
It is assumed that majority of work will be adapted from PSA for internal event (e.g. success criteria etc.). In such
case event trees will have quite simple structure and trees for particular initiating events will require only reactor
trip and heat removal.
It is assumed that majority of initiating event will not require development of specific fault trees to adapt PSA
model on lightning condition. This assumption is based on fact that any lightning strike can put out of order limited
number of components. So it is sufficient only to set affected component to fault state. This customization of
model can be done by using configuration files or boundary condition sets (depends on the used software)
It is also assumed that external initiating events induced by lightning strike will not use specific event trees. In this
case frequencies estimated in step 4 will be added to particular frequencies used within analysis of external hazards and external hazard analysis will be re-evaluated.
8.6 STEP 6 - RISK QUANTIFICATION
The aim of this step is to quantify risk (core damage frequency for L1 PSA) by appropriate integrating of the lightning hazard (what is done within step 5).
Based on the work performed within steps 1 to 5 quantification of lightning PSA is standard activity like in PSA for
8.7 STEP 7 – L1 PSA REPORTING
Reporting is standard part of any PSA which aim is to provide comprehensive and traceable documentation of the
8.8 L2 PSA CONSIDERATIONS
Few considerations on L1-L2 PSA interface are provided in Appendix. No specifities can be highlithed for lightning
hazards L2 PSA in comparison with existing practices.
/The conclusion has to be discussed during the End-Users review process/
The report introduces a systematic framework to evaluate hazards caused by lightning event including correlated
hazards. From this framework, feasibility of lightning hazards implementation in extended PSA can be discussed.
From the “state of the art” knowledge, the methods, equations, data, standards, exposed above as engineering
technics in the general case, can be applied for the design of lightning protection or to improve them.
Nevertheless, the presented fragility analysis methodology is based mainly on IECs and does not take into account
lightning intensity effects. Further effort can be useful to improve available methods for fragility analysis in case
For extended PSA, analysis of lightning damages from NPP experience and additional methodologies for the theoretical possible damages of lightning on safety functions would be useful for the quantification of initiating events
frequency of occurrence or assessment of the accuracy or uncertainty of the results.In addition, assessment of
wild fire frequency induced by lightning is seen as a topic for further development.
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extended Level 1 PSA - Technical report ASAMPSA_E / WP22 / D22.1 / 2015-11 - Reference IRSN
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ASAMPSA_E / WP21 / D21.1 / 2015-09 - Reference IRSN PSN-RES/SAG/2015-00082
ASAMPSA_E - Synthesis of the initial survey related to PSAs End-Users needs - Technical report
ASAMPSA_E/WP10/D10.2/2014-05 - Reference IRSN PSN-RES/SAG/2014-00193
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the approximation of the laws of the Member States relating to electromagnetic compatibility and repealing Directive 89/336/EEC; L 390/24
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Table 2-1. Description of some safety significant events caused by the lightnings ......................................................................... 27
Table 3-1 Map referred in: Transmission and Distribution Electrical Engineering [39] .................................................................30
Table 3-2. Lightning strike density in Bulgaria ............................................................................................................................... 30
Table 3-3 List of basic data (parameters) ........................................................................................................................................ 32
Table 4-1 Positioning of air terminals according to the protection levels defined by the IEC standards ......................................... 40
Table 4-2a Level of the lightning protection ...................................................................................................................................44
Table 4-2b Level of the lightning protection ...................................................................................................................................44
Table 4-3Radius of the notional/fictitious rolling sphere ................................................................................................................ 45
Lightning .................................................................................................................................................................17
Front of the lightning current ...................................................................................................................................20
Lightning between the cloud and ground at peak current greater than 200 kA in the Slovak Republic and the
surrounding area for the years 2002 - 2010 ..................................................................................................................................... 22
Distribution of external hazard related events in Germany ...................................................................................... 25
Distribution of external hazard related events in France.......................................................................................... 26
Distribution of external hazard related events from ASAMPSA_E End-Users survey ........................................... 26
Isokeraunic map of the Slovak Republic ................................................................................................................. 29
Isokeraunic map of Bulgaria .................................................................................................................................... 29
Annual detected lightning flash density ................................................................................................................... 31
Detected lightning flash density for July ................................................................................................................. 32
Striking distance versus return-stroke peak current .................................................................................................34
Global distribution of lightning April 1995 - February 2003................................................................................... 36
Probability of stroke current exceeding abscissa for strokes to flat ground ............................................................. 37
Curve of exceedance frequency versus lightning intensity ...................................................................................... 38
Protective features of neighbouring buildings ............................................................................................................. 41
Strike distance dependence on the ip [kA] .................................................................................................................. 42
Intensity of magnetic field as a function of the distance between buildings ................................................................ 42
Determination of lightning zone by method of the “notional/fictitious rolling sphere” .............................................. 43
Figure 7-2 Spheres MKF 75 ..................................................................51
Wave voltage with amplitude until 2.5 kV .............................................................................................................. 51
Amplitudes of the input voltage of the relay protection 250-300 V......................................................................... 52
Overall picture of analysis process for internal and external hazards, [7] ...................................................................52
Logical diagram for lightning PSA ............................................................................................................................. 53
Spatial distribution of the probability of occurrence of lightning-induced fires in the province of León for the
2002-2007 periods (Probabilities were based on the logistic model) .............................................................................................. 56
13 APPENDIX 1 – LIGHTNING RISK SAFETY ASSESSMENT (SOME
COMMENTS FROM IRSN)
/This appendix may be suppressed in the final version if the discussion on norms applicability is improved/
For the lightning risk safety assessment, the buildings with the following characteristics have to be considered:
a risk of radioactive material release;
a risk of failure of equipment important for the safety of the installation (safety targets).
The standards of the CEI 62305 (ref. 1 to 4) series give the state-of-the-art regarding protection against lightning,
to be used to determine the protective performance levels4. For a nuclear facility, some input parameters have to
be carefully chosen such as “lightning flashes frequency” [flashes/year.km²], “fire risk of the building”, “provisions to mitigate the fire consequences” and “type of hazard associated to a lightning initiated accident scenario”
as they have a major influence on the level of protection selected for the buildings to be protected. However, if
these standards may be sufficient to protect conventional buildings, the analysis has to be completed for a nuclear
safety demonstration. Indeed, these standards involve risk acceptability criteria and introduce a probability of
casualties in case of lightning. Their implementation then leads to a minimum level of protection but does not
achieve the highest level of protection requested for a nuclear facility; as well, the adequacy of the protection
devices against lightning is not justified and the consequences of an uncaptured lightning strike are not assessed.
For example, a system of protection against lightning rated “level IV” (the lowest level of protection) only captures 80% of lightning strikes. Thus, for a nuclear safety demonstration, these standards have to be completed
the list of safety targets to be protected against lightning effects;
consequences assessment on equipment in case of an uncaptured lightning strike;
safety analysis of incidental or accidental scenarios occurring with an uncaptured lightning strike.
Concerning the necessary provisions to mitigate the lightning consequences, in addition to the technical analysis
required by the CEI 62305, the licensee also have to justify the performance of these provisions regarding:
the control measurements to check the correct equipotentialization of the facility earthing system. The
correct connection of this system to the site earthing system shall also be checked;
the protection against electric or electrostatic sparks of conducting elements (ducts, power lines…) entering the building; if necessary, following the CEI 62305 standards, connections between these conducting
elements and the earthing system are requested. The connections shall be put in place where the elements penetrate the building.
Four protective performance levels (I, II, III and IV) are defined in the CEI 62305-1 standard. For each level, minimal and maximal values for the lightning current are given. The maximal value is used for the design of the protection devices and the minimal value is used to size the virtual sphere representing the protection zone.
Finally, regular checks and tests of all the elements providing the lightning protection shall be mentioned in the
operating procedures of the facility.
International standard CEI 62305-1:2010 - Protection against lightning – Part 1: General principles
International standard CEI 62305-2:2010 - Protection against lightning – Part 2: Risk management
International standard CEI 62305-3:2010 - Protection against lightning – Part 3: Physical damage to structures
International standard CEI 62305-4:2010 - Protection against lightning – Part 4: Electrical and electronic systems within structures
14 APPENDIX 2– WP40 – Level 2 PSA contribution: Interface
This appendix provides recommendations regarding the definition of Plant Damage States (PDSs), which are used as
boundary conditions in the Level 2 analyses, for the lightning initiators groups that have been identified to be of
most interest by the end-users groups after collection and discussion of results from the ASAMPSA_E end-users
survey [3]. The general discussion on definition of PDSs and protocols and recommendations for performing PSA are
to be found in the ASAMPSA2 guidelines ([56] and [57]).
Most of the discussion is the same for each of the external events initiator groups, according to experience gained
from performing and/or reviewing complete and integrated analyses, and therefore the sections are given for
completeness and to make the discussion self-contained for each initiator group and with small variations from
each other, according to initiator group expected consequences. The only exception is for the “biological infestation” group, for which no specific analysis has been performed to date. For this group, guesses are given, on the
basis of potential (or known) infestation incidents.
2 Definition of Plant Damage States (PDS) FOR lightning initiating events
Since the definition of, and collection of data for the PDSs are tasks that may fall upon different teams that perform the analyses (Level 1 and Level 2 teams), this section is intended primarily for Level 2 experts.
It must be stressed, as was done for analyses of internal events [56] and [57]), that this task involves close interaction between the teams performing the analyses. Level 2 personnel has knowledge about what boundary conditions
are necessary for characterization of accidents after core damage, and Level 1 personnel knows how accidents
progressed up to that point and why core damage occurred. Therefore, this part of the works profits from feedback and potentially iterative work between the two teams in the course of defining the PDSs.
To this point, it is recommended that the Level 2 team in general takes cognizance and understands thoroughly
the definition of systems success criteria used in the Level 1 study, and in particular for accidents initiated by
lightning events, what are the potential initiator-dependent systems failures (failure of systems that occurred as a
direct impact from the initiator) and –independent failures (failure of systems that may have occurred after accident initiation, at a time that for the most part cannot be specified by Level 1 analyses).
It is also strongly recommended that the Level 2 team familiarizes themselves with the results of Level 1 in terms
of individual accident sequences or Minimal CutSets (MCSs) that show the chain of failures (initiator, dependent
systems failures, component failures, and operator errors) that ended in core damage. Operator errors in Level 1
are of particular importance for Level 2 analyses if operator interventions that could be considered as part of
SAMGs are introduced in Level 1 in conjunction with interventions that are part of EOPs. This is the case for instance for containment venting, initiation of containment sprays, or initiation of firewater (or equivalent emergency system) injection in the RCS prior to core damage in BWR plants. The danger is that these systems may be
over-credited in Level 2, if accident progression to the time of core damage is not thoroughly understood by the
Level 2 teams.
In addition, it is also strongly recommended that the Level 2 team responsible for the definition of PDSs understand the role of auxiliary systems (such as compressed air, auxiliary and component cooling water systems) in the
process of preventing core damage in particular accident scenarios, since these systems may fail as dependent on
the initiator, without immediate failure of the primary safety systems.
The definition of PDSs that has been used for the internal events analysis has to be verified for applicability to
Level 1 accident sequences that are initiated by lightning events. The combination of dependent and independent
systems failures due to lightning events-induced sequences may require the definition of additional PDSs that were
not considered possible for internal events. Finally, operators may be required to perform actions (such as venting
of the containment prior to core damage) that would not be considered under accidents initiated by internal
events and that change the status of the containment before the beginning of Level 2 analyses.
Preliminary discussion of this topic within WP40 has led to the conclusion that for the purpose of “presentation of
results” and “analysis of results” (especially for importance analysis) it is strongly suggested to include one additional characteristic in the definition of PDSs that describes the group of initiators. Apart from this additional
information, the traditional PDS characteristics seem to be suitable also for lightning events characterization.
Additional characteristics with particular importance for L2 PSA do not seem to be needed.
As a preliminary conclusion of the present document it seems that – apart from the initiating event itself – no additional PDS characteristics are needed.
15 APPENDIX 3- HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND PSA TOOL
/This appendix has been provided by LRC – Other examples of tools can be added during the external review/
RiskSpectrum® HazardLite [58] (hereafter called HazardLite) is a light tool for assessing hazard risks, e.g. earthquake, tsunami, extreme weather etc. The input to HazardLite includes definition of initiating events ranges,
hazard curves and fragilities. The output is an excel workbook containing the results in form of Basic Events. This
excel file can be imported into RiskSpectrum® PSA for further analysis. In addition, if the Monte Carlo method is
selected in the analysis, a series of text files will also be generated for uncertainty analysis in RiskSpectrum ® PSA.
A probabilistic safety assessment of an external hazard is different from analysis of internal events e.g. seismic
hazards. The differences are mainly that:
The hazard (the initiator of the sequence) spans over a continuous range
There is relation between the hazard and the failure of equipment (fragility). The stronger the external hazard e.g. earthquake, the more likely the equipment will fail.
This is relevant also for other types of hazards, e.g. tsunami, extreme weather hazards.
HazardLite uses an EXCEL workbook to store the input necessary for fragility calculations of components over
discreet ranges of peak ground accelerations, which are considered to be the initiating events. To capture the full
uncertainty inherent in our knowledge, families of both hazard curves and fragility curves are used.
To capture the uncertainty of hazard curves, several hazards curves may be entered and each curve is given a
probability, or weight, that it is the actual hazard curve. To capture the uncertainty of the fragility curve for
each component, the user must enter the median acceleration where the component is expected to fail (called
Am), the logarithmic standard deviation (called βR) which represents the random variability of the fragility, and
the logarithmic standard deviation (called βU) which represents the uncertainty in the actual shape of the fragility
curve. Fragility curves are modelled as lognormal probability distributions.
The hazard curves (and the fragility curves) are divided into discrete intervals by the analyst. In the PSA model,
each of these intervals needs to be represented. HazardLite will generate the input necessary, with regard to
hazard frequencies within each interval and fragilities to be used within each interval. These basic events are
intended to be used as initiating events (frequency events) and as component failure in the PSA model (normal
basic events in the fault tree structure).
It shall be noticed that fragilities may be grouped and combined. Grouping of equipment is performed to reduce
the amount of necessary seismic fragility events and it represents OR-structures of components that need to be
treated as fragilities. Combinations may be relevant when several fragility events are found in the same MCS. The
reason for this is that the convolution approach used in HazardLite is more exact if the convolution is performed
for the events together, rather than performing the convolution individually and then combining them in a MCS.
In the quantification, each of the defined intervals is subdivided into a number of sub-intervals. The chosen
amount of subintervals is 100 in HazardLite.
Within each interval the hazard frequency, as well as the fragility for each component is calculated. The calculation of the fragility is convoluted with the frequency, to account for differences in the interval (both the hazard
curves and the fragility curve will change value within the interval).
The quantification algorithm is described by following:
Point estimate calculation
Quantification of the hazard frequency, the initiating events
Calculation of fragility for group of events
Calculation of fragility for combination of events
Quantification of hazard
Quantification of fragility
Quantification of hazard, initiating events, point estimate calculation
HazardLite is calculating the frequency for the hazard by calculating the average frequency taking into account
the weight of the hazard curve. The hazard frequencies are calculated by subtracting the exceedance frequency
at the upper hazard boundary from the exceedance frequency corresponding to the lower boundary. Thereby a
frequency within each interval is calculated. The calculation of hazard frequency is also performed for each subinterval, since these frequencies are required for the convolution of hazard and fragility. Logarithmic interpolation is used when the definition of the interval does not match the user defined input data for the hazard curve.
The HazardLite is used earthquakes as an example to illustrate how it works.
The fragility calculation is based upon following formula [1]:
Φ() is the standard Gaussian cumulative distribution
a is the PGA
Am is the median capacity of the component
βR is the random variability (the randomness wrt the earthquake)
βu is the state of knowledge uncertainty (uncertainty of fragility curve shape)
Q is the confidence that the conditional probability of failure, f, is less than f´ for a given peak acceleration a.
A mean fragility curve can be calculated by replacing βR by following
in the equation above and to set βU to zero [1]. Then following equation can be defined:
This equation is used in HazardLite to calculate the mean fragility (e.g. at a given PGA a).
Since the fragility is representing a range of PGAs, and over this range the hazard frequency is also changing, and
the cut sets including fragilities will always include one hazard and at least one fragility, the proper calculation
would be to integrate them over the interval (over which the hazard is defined). However, the calculation in
RiskSpectrum PSA/RSAT does not allow for such evaluations and thereby the calculation of the fragility must take
this into consideration. The calculation of the individual component fragility convolution is described below, and
the calculation of groups and combinations is described in a separate section.
Assume following cut set
H1, F1, B
Where H1 is the frequency in an interval, F1 is the failure probability of a component in the same interval, and B is
an independent failure probability.
If H1 and F1 are calculated independently with regard to the frequency and probability within the interval, this will
not necessarily yield the same result as the mean value computed by
And the mean value from the integral above is the correct mean value. Therefore HazardLite does the convolution through a numerical integration, and then divides it by the frequency in the interval. In this way a weighted
fragility estimate is calculated, and when it is multiplied with the hazard frequency in the MCS again, it will yield
the same result as if the integration would have been performed for the MCS itself.
To put it in formula, Fi the failure probability of the component due to seismic fragility in interval i is calculated
Fi,hk is the fragility calculated for interval i based on hazard curve k
hij is the hazard frequency for interval i, sub-interval j
fij is the fragility calculated for the interval i, sub-interval j
The value of the fragility fij is calculated at the upper end of the sub-interval, which is a slightly conservative
approach taken. The probability is calculated by formula (3).
The fragility (failure probability) is calculated for each individual hazard curve as basis, and then the fragility
(failure probability) results to be used in the PSA for the interval are calculated by multiplying the weight of the
hazard curve with the Fi,hk of that specific curve. The raw data are the hazard curves, and thereby these should be
used as the basis for the convolution. The fragility (failure probability) for the component is calculated by:
Whk is the weight of hazard curve k
Fi, hk is the fragility in segment I for hazard curve hk
Component groups and combinations
A component groups is defined as a set of components that are grouped together and instead of representing them
individually, they are represented as a group. These events could be considered to be represented under an ORgate.
The quantification of the fragility for each component is according to the methodology above, but instead of representing each value in the PSA model by a basic event, they are combined according to following formula:
A combination is defined as a set of basic events that are found in the same MCS. The process described above for
components and groups of components generates a convolution of the hazard and the fragilities over the hazard
range. This process is used to, as accurately as possible, calculate the values that should be produced by the MCS
analysis whenever the cut set includes the hazard (which it should always do in the hazard analysis) and a fragility.
However, when a cut set contains more than one fragility the convolution is no longer correct.
HazardLite gives the user the possibility to specify combination of events. There can be a prohibitively large
number of combinations, so the process is intended to be used for the events that may have impact on the results.
The combinations defined are calculated simultaneously as the individual basic events, to ensure consistency of
values used (e.g. with regard to uncertainty simulations – same value must be used for
(failure probability
A in internal i) both when the individual basic event is computed and the combination event).
The combinations are intended to be included in the analysis using MCS post processing, replacing the events in
the cut set by the combinations. The difference in results when applying combinations and not for individual MCS
may be significant, and hence it is recommended to use the combinations for event combinations of importance.
The uncertainty calculation is built by the same methods as presented above. The equations are slightly different,
when it is no longer the mean value that is computed.
Randomly select one of the hazard curves (according to its weight)
Randomly select one of the fragility curves in the group of fragility curves (for each component)
Calculate the hazard frequencies for all defined intervals
Calculate the fragilities for all intervals, under the condition of the selected hazard curve (convolute with
the selected hazard curve only)
Calculate Component groups and combinations
Perform next sampling
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