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Crime in 2016: Updated Analysis | Uniform Crime Reports | Violent Crime
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here . In addition to providing updated data from city law enforcement agencies, this report incorporates recently-released information from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, and uses it to “standardize” data reported by city agencies. As a result, data in Tables 1 and 2 may be compared to previous Brennan Center reports, but may diverge from figures in reported in Crime in 2016: A Preliminary Analysis . Update to Tables 1 & 2 in Crime in 2016: A Preliminary Analysis BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 1 " id="pdf-obj-0-2" src="pdf-obj-0-2.jpg">
By Matthew Friedman, Ames Grawert, and James Cullen
In September, the Brennan Center analyzed available crime data from the 30 largest cities, projecting that by the end of 2016, these cities would see a nearly unchanged rate of overall crime and a slight uptick in the murder rate. That report concluded that while concerns about “out of control” crime rates were premature, the data “call attention to specific cities, especially Chicago, and an urgent need to address violence there.” 1
This report updates these findings, incorporating more recent data. Updated Tables 1 and 2 show conclusions similar to the initial report, with slightly different percentages: i
The overall crime rate in the 30 largest cities in 2016 is projected to remain roughly the same as in 2015, rising by 0.3 percent. If this trend holds, crime rates will remain near historic lows, driven by low amounts of property crime. 2
The 2016 murder rate is projected to be 14 percent higher than last year in the 30 largest cities. Chicago is projected to account for 43.7 percent of the total increase in murders. The preliminary 2016 report identified some reasons for increasing violence in Chicago, such as falling police numbers, poverty and other forms of socioeconomic disadvantage, and gang violence. 3 A similar phenomenon occurred in 2015, when a group of three cities — Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. — accounted for more than half of the increase in murders. 4 This year Baltimore and Washington, D.C., are projected to see their murder rates decline, by 6 percent and 18.6 percent, respectively.
The preliminary 2016 analysis is available here.
i In addition to providing updated data from city law enforcement agencies, this report incorporates recently-released information from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, and uses it to “standardize” data reported by city agencies. As a result, data in Tables 1 and 2 may be compared to previous Brennan Center reports, but may diverge from figures in reported in Crime in 2016: A Preliminary Analysis.
Update to Tables 1 & 2 in Crime in 2016: A Preliminary Analysis
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 1
Table 1: Crime in the 30 Largest Cities (2015-2016) (updated Dec. 19, 2016)
Chicago 7 Houston 8
Philadelphia 9 Phoenix 10 *
San Diego 12 Dallas 13
Jacksonville 16†
Indianapolis 18 * Columbus 19†
Fort Worth 20†
El Paso 24 *
Washington, D.C. 26 Boston 27
Memphis 28†
Portland 30 *
Las Vegas 32 * Baltimore 33
Source: Police department and city reports. See endnotes for specific sources. Cities are ordered by population size. 35 * These cities did not respond to requests for data in time for publication. † For these cities, the authors were able to obtain data on violent crime only.
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 2
Table 2: Murder in the 30 Largest Cities (2015-2016) (updated Dec. 19, 2016)
352 -4.6%
4.1 -5.5%
282 3.8%
7.1 3.0%
478 53.1%
17.5 52.8%
Chicago 38 Houston 39
303 15.2%
13.3 13.4%
280 4.5%
17.8 3.9%
Philadelphia 40 Phoenix 41 *
San Diego 43 Dallas 44
Indianapolis 49 * Columbus 50
Fort Worth 51
El Paso 55 *
Washington, D.C. 57 Boston 58
Portland 61 *
127 38.7%
Las Vegas 63 Baltimore 64
344 -6.1%
55.4 -6.0%
12.0 19.0%
Source: Police department and city reports. See endnotes for specific sources. Cities are ordered by population size. * These cities did not respond to requests for data in time for publication.
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 3
1 See MATTHEW FRIEDMAN, AMES GRAWERT, & JAMES CULLEN, BRENNAN CTR. FOR JUSTICE, CRIME IN 2016: A
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS (2016), https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/crime-2016-preliminary-analysis.
2 For analysis, see BRENNAN CTR. FOR JUSTICE, PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 2015 FBI UNIFORM CRIME REPORT, Sept.
26, 2016, https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/preliminary -analysis-2015-fbi-uniform-crime-report. For original
source material, see UNITED STATES DEP’T OF JUSTICE, FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, CRIME IN THE UNITED
STATES, 2015 (2016), https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/.
3 See MATTHEW FRIEDMAN, AMES GRAWERT, & JAMES CULLEN, BRENNAN CTR. FOR JUSTICE, CRIME IN 2016: A
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS 9-10, 13 (2016), https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/crime-2016-preliminary-analysis.
4 See AMES GRAWERT & JAMES CULLEN, BRENNAN CTR. FOR JUSTICE, CRIME IN 2015: A FINAL ANALYSIS (2016),
https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/crime-2015-final-analysis.
5 NEW YORK CITY POLICE DEP’T, COMPSTAT CITYWIDE (2016),
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf.
6 LOS ANGELES POLICE DEP’T, COMPSTAT CITYWIDE PROFILE 1 (2016),
http://assets.lapdonline.org/assets/pdf/cityprof.pdf.
7 CITY OF CHICAGO, CRIMES - 2001 TO PRESENT (2016), https://data.cityofchicago.org/view/5cd6-ry5g.
8 See HOUSTON POLICE DEP’T, CRIME STATISTICS (2016), http://www.houstontx.gov/police/cs/index-2.htm. Houston reports data monthly, and the authors added together data from each month to arrive at totals for 2015.
9 PHILADELPHIA POLICE DEP’T, CRIME INCIDENTS 2006-PRESENT (2016), https://data.phila.gov/view/ter3-xxzp.
10 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials did not respond to requests for information.
11 SAN ANTONIO POLICE DEP’T, UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS: UCR BY YEAR (2016),
http://www.sanantonio.gov/SAPD/Uniform-Crime-Reports (select “2016” from available tabs).
12 AUTOMATED REG’L JUSTICE INFO. SYS., CRIME STATISTICS AND MAPS, SAN DIEGO (2016),
http://crimestats.arjis.org/default.aspx (from the drop-down boxes, select “Jan / 2016” for “Begin Date,” “Oct / 2016” for “End Date,” and “San Diego” for “Agency”).
13 Memorandum, City of Dallas, Weekly Crime Briefing Report (Dec. 9, 2016),
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/65924246/9-CD%20WeeKly_%20Crime_%20Brief/Attachment%232.pdf.
14 SAN JOSE POLICE DEP’T, PART I CRIMES REPORTED (2016),
http://www.sjpd.org/CrimeStats/updates/Part_One_Crimes_Reported_YTD.pdf?cacheID=20160503.
15 AUSTIN POLICE DEP’T, CHIEF’S MONTHLY REPORTS (2016) http://www.austintexas.gov/page/chiefs-monthly-reports (select “Chief ’s Monthly Report, November 2016,” the most recently available source at time of publication).
16 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
file with the authors). Data from this publication includes information on violent crime only.
17 SF OPENDATA, MAP: CRIME INCIDENTS FROM 1 JAN 2003 (2016), https://data.sfgov.org/Public-Safety/Map-Crime-
Incidents-from-1-Jan-2003/gxxq-x39z/data.
18 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials did not respond to requests for information.
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 4
19 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
20 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
21 CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG POLICE DEP’T, CRIME STATISTICS: RELEASED NOV. 4, 2016 (2016),
http://charlottenc.gov/cmpd/Pages/default.aspx (from the landing page, select “Crime Statistics for the Quarter”).
22 SEATTLE POLICE DEP’T, SEASTAT SLIDES 7 (Aug 3, 2016),
http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Police/SeaStat/SEASTAT_2016AUG3.pdf.
23 DENVER POLICE DEP’T, CITYWIDE DATA – UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING, PART 1: CRIMES IN THE CITY AND COUNTY OF DENVER BASED ON UCR STANDARDS (2016),
https://www.denvergov.org/content/dam/denvergov/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2016/Xcitywide_Reported_
Offenses_2016.pdf (containing data through the end of October)
24 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials have previously responded that data would not be released to persons or entities outside of Texas. See Email from Cynthia Macias, Open Records Desk, El Paso Police Department, to authors (Apr. 1, 2016) (indicating that city crime data would be shared only with Texas residents) (on file with the authors).
25 CITY OF DETROIT, DPD: ALL CRIME INCIDENTS 2009-PRESENT (2016), https://data.detroitmi.gov/Public-
Safety/DPD-All-Crime-Incidents-2009-Present-Map-Provision/up3m-9ahm.
26 METROPOLITAN POLICE DEP’T, DISTRICT CRIME DATA AT A GLANCE: 2016 YEAR-TO-DATE CRIME COMPARISON
(2016), http://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance. The city’s crime statistics page warns against comparing data to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. This report’s methodology, as in previous Brennan Center reports using data from both the FBI and local police departments, is designed to account for this variation. See note 35, infra.
27 BOSTON REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER, PART ONE CRIME REPORTED BY THE BOSTON POLICE DEPARTMENT
(2016), http://bit.ly/2h5MhoO.
28 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
29 See NASHVILLE METROPOLITAN POLICE DEPARTMENT, COMPSTAT WEEKLY ANALYSIS 11 (2016),
http://compstat.nashville.gov/2016/20161001_CompStat_Report.pdf.
30 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials did not respond to requests for information.
31 OKC.GOV, POLICE DEPARTMENT, CRIME STATS, INFORMATION & MAPPING (2016),
https://www.okc.gov/departments/police/crime-prevention-data/crime-stats.
32 At the time of publication, Las Vegas had released only data on homicides. Accordingly, Las Vegas statistics appear in Table 2, but not Table 1. See LAS VEGAS METRO. POLICE DEP’T, CRIME STATISTICS (2016),
http://www.lvmpd.com/ProtectYourself/CrimeStatistics/tabid/566/Default.aspx.
33 OPEN BALTIMORE, BPD PART 1 VICTIM BASED CRIME DATA (2016), https://data.baltimorecity.gov/Public- Safety/BPD-Part-1-Victim-Based-Crime-Data/wsfq-mvij (from the raw spreadsheet, data was exported and then filtered by date to remove all years other than 2015 and 2016, and then filtered again by crime type to include only Part 1 index crimes).
34 Louisville publicly reports data for some crimes. See LOUISVILLEKY.GOV, METRO. POLICE, CRIME DATA (2016), http://portal.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crimedataall-data.
35 Population estimates were created using the same methodology as the original report, and updated to include recent
FBI data. See MATTHEW FRIEDMAN, AMES GRAWERT, & JAMES CULLEN, BRENNAN CTR. FOR JUSTICE, CRIME IN 2016: A
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS 15 (2016), https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/crime-2016-preliminary-analysis.
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 5
Crime projections, however, were built to incorporate the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. See UNITED STATES DEP’T OF
JUSTICE, FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES, 2015 (2016), https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-
in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/. First, the authors divided the number of crimes that occurred in each city in 2015, according to the Uniform Crime Reports, by the number of crimes committed year-to-date in 2015 according to city CompStat sources. The resulting ratio was then multiplied by the number of crimes that have been committed in the city by the same point this year. For example, suppose a city experienced 100 murders last year according to FBI data. If the same city experienced 60 murders between January 1 and November 1, 2015, according to local police data, and 70 murders between January 1 and November 1, 2016, this method would project a year-end murder count of 116.67, rounded to 117. This method is an empirically accepted way to create rough projections.
36 NEW YORK CITY POLICE DEP’T, COMPSTAT CITYWIDE (2016),
37 LOS ANGELES POLICE DEP’T, COMPSTAT CITYWIDE PROFILE 1 (2016),
38 CITY OF CHICAGO, CRIMES - 2001 TO PRESENT (2016), https://data.cityofchicago.org/view/5cd6-ry5g.
39 See HOUSTON POLICE DEP’T, CRIME STATISTICS (2016), http://www.houstontx.gov/police/cs/index-2.htm. Houston reports data monthly, and the authors added together data from each month to arrive at totals for 2015.
40 PHILADELPHIA POLICE DEP’T, CRIME INCIDENTS 2006-PRESENT (2016), https://data.phila.gov/view/ter3-xxzp.
41 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials did not respond to requests for information.
42 SAN ANTONIO POLICE DEP’T, UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS: UCR BY YEAR (2016),
43 AUTOMATED REG’L JUSTICE INFO. SYS., CRIME STATISTICS AND MAPS, SAN DIEGO (2016),
44 Memorandum, City of Dallas, Weekly Crime Briefing Report (Dec. 9, 2016),
45 SAN JOSE POLICE DEP’T, PART I CRIMES REPORTED (2016),
46 AUSTIN POLICE DEP’T, CHIEF’S MONTHLY REPORTS (2016) http://www.austintexas.gov/page/chiefs-monthly-reports (select “Chief ’s Monthly Report, November 2016,” the most recently available source at time of publication).
47 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
48 SAN FRANCISCO POLICE DEP’T, COMPSTAT: CITYWIDE PROFILE 9/1/2016 TO 9/30/2016 (2016),
http://sanfranciscopolice.org/sites/default/files/Documents/PoliceDocuments/CompStat/sfpd-compstat-September-
49 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials did not respond to requests for information.
50 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
51 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 6
52 CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG POLICE DEP’T, CRIME STATISTICS: RELEASED NOV. 4, 2016 (2016),
53 SEATTLE POLICE DEP’T, SEASTAT SLIDES 7 (Aug 3, 2016),
54 DENVER POLICE DEP’T, CITYWIDE DATA – UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING, PART 1: CRIMES IN THE CITY AND COUNTY OF DENVER BASED ON UCR STANDARDS (2016),
55 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials have previously responded that data would not be released to persons or entities outside of Texas. See Email from Cynthia Macias, Open Records Desk, El Paso Police Department, to authors (Apr. 1, 2016) (indicating that city crime data would be shared only with Texas residents) (on file with the authors).
56 CITY OF DETROIT, DPD: ALL CRIME INCIDENTS 2009-PRESENT (2016), https://data.detroitmi.gov/Public-
57 METROPOLITAN POLICE DEP’T, DISTRICT CRIME DATA AT A GLANCE: 2016 YEAR-TO-DATE CRIME COMPARISON
(2016), http://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance. The city’s crime statistics page warns against comparing data to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. This report’s methodology, as in previous Brennan Center reports using data from both the FBI and local police departments, is designed to account for this variation. See note 35, supra.
58 BOSTON REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER, PART ONE CRIME REPORTED BY THE BOSTON POLICE DEPARTMENT
59 MAJOR CITIES CHIEFS ASSOCIATION, VIOLENT CRIME SURVEY – TOTALS: THIRD QUARTER COMPARISON (2016) (on
60 See NASHVILLE METROPOLITAN POLICE DEPARTMENT, COMPSTAT WEEKLY ANALYSIS 11 (2016),
61 The authors were unable to locate a public, reliable, government source for crime statistics, and city officials did not respond to requests for information.
62 OKC.GOV, POLICE DEPARTMENT, CRIME STATS, INFORMATION & MAPPING (2016),
63 At the time of publication, Las Vegas had released only data on homicides. Accordingly, Las Vegas statistics appear in Table 2, but not Table 1. See LAS VEGAS METRO. POLICE DEP’T, CRIME STATISTICS (2016),
64 OPEN BALTIMORE, BPD PART 1 VICTIM BASED CRIME DATA (2016), https://data.baltimorecity.gov/Public- Safety/BPD-Part-1-Victim-Based-Crime-Data/wsfq-mvij (from the raw spreadsheet, data was exported and then filtered by date to remove all years other than 2015 and 2016, and then filtered again by crime type to include only Part 1 index crimes).
65 Louisville publicly reports data for some crimes. See LOUISVILLEKY.GOV, METRO. POLICE, CRIME DATA (2016), http://portal.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crimedataall-data.
BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE | 7
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