Source: https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2001/07/13/01-17444/mexican-hass-avocado-import-program
Timestamp: 2015-08-04 09:44:42
Document Index: 431377680

Matched Legal Cases: ['§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319', '§ 319']

Federal Register | Mexican Hass Avocado Import Program
Publication Date: Friday, July 13, 2001
Dates: We invite you to comment on this docket. We will consider all comments that we receive by September 11, 2001. We will also consider comments made at public hearings in Escondido, CA; Austin, TX; Denver, CO; and Homestead, FL. The exact dates and times for the hearings and the specific locations of all four hearings will be announced in a notice to be published in a future issue of the Federal Register.
66 FR 36892
-36905 (14 pages)
Document Number: 01-17444
Shorter URL: https://federalregister.gov/a/01-17444 Related Topics
We solicited comments on our request for 90 days, ending August 9, 2000. By that date, we received 265 comments. The comments were submitted by avocado growers, processors, packers and importers, grocers, Members of Congress, Mexican Government officials, researchers, and State and local departments of agriculture. In general, the majority of commenters supported expanding the area of distribution of Hass avocados and increasing by the length of the shipping season during which Hass avocados may be imported into the United States. Two commenters provided data that were considered in the development of a study titled “Identification of Susceptible Areas for the Establishment of Anastrepha spp. Fruit Flies in the United States and Analysis of Selected Pathways” (Sequeira, et al., 2001). This study, along with several previous risk documents, provides the basis for this proposed rule. Several commenters had specific concerns about Mexico's request and the current Hass avocado import program. These comments are discussed later in this document.
We have completed our review of the Mexican Government's request and have evaluated the information submitted by commenters in response to our request for comments. Based on our review of the public comments (discussed later in this document) and the findings of various risk analysis documents prepared by APHIS, which are discussed in detail below beginning with the section titled Risk Assessment Documentation Supporting the Proposed Rule, we are proposing to amend § 319.56-2ff(a)(2) of the regulations to extend by 2 months the shipping season during which Hass avocados from approved orchards in approved municipalities in Michoacan, Mexico, may be imported into approved areas of the United States. With this proposed change, the shipping season would run from November through April.
We are also proposing to expand the area to which the Mexican Hass avocados may be distributed by adding Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming to the list of approved States in § 319.56-2ff(a)(3). These 12 additional States, like the currently approved States, do not contain host material for any of the avocado-specific pests of concern and have phenological conditions that do not support the establishment of fruit flies, especially during the proposed shipping season.
In addition to the proposed changes to § 319.56-2ff(a)(2) and (a)(3) discussed above, our proposed expansion of the shipping season and the number of States in which Mexican Hass avocados may be distributed would necessitate several other changes in the regulations. First, we would amend the limited distribution statement required by § 319.56-2ff(c)(3)(vii) to reflect the addition of the 12 new States. Specifically, the statement that must be placed on boxes used to ship imported Hass avocados from Mexico would be changed to read “Distribution limited to the following States: CT, CO, DC, DE, ID, IL, IA, IN, KS, KY, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NH, NJ, NY, ND, OH, PA, RI, SD, UT, VA, VT, WV, WI, and WY.”
Paragraphs (e)(2) and (e)(3) of § 319.56-2ff each refer to the “entire shipping season of November through February.” We are proposing to amend those paragraphs so that they refer to the shipping season as running from November through April.
We would also amend the existing regulations to allow the imported avocados to transit additional States. Currently, the regulations in § 319.56-2ff(g) do not allow avocados to be moved west of a line extending from El Paso, TX, to Denver, CO, and due north from Denver. Given that, under our proposal, avocados would be eligible for importation into several States west of this line, we are proposing to revise the description of the area through which Mexican Hass avocados may be moved by truck or rail car. Under our proposal, avocados would not be allowed to transit the area to the west of the following line: Following Interstate 10 north from El Paso, TX, to Las Cruces, NM, and then north following Interstate 25 to the Colorado border. Once in Colorado, trucks and rail cars carrying avocados would be free to move to any State located within the approved distribution area described in § 319.56-2ff(a)(3). The current eastern shipping boundary would not change.
The final rule that established the current Mexican Hass avocado import program was published in the Federal Register on February 5, 1997, and became effective on March 7, 1997(62 FR 5293-5315, Docket No. 94-116-6). In the final rule, we stated, in response to a comment about expanding the approved avocado distribution area to include additional States, that newStates could be added to the list of approved States in the future if APHIS received a request to do so and the Agency determined that avocados could be imported into other States without presenting a significant pest risk.
The content of these documents, and our analysis of their applicability to this proposed rule, are summarized below. This summary is an excerpt from an APHIS document entitled “Information Memo for the Record” (April 30, 2001). Copies of all of the documents referenced above, including the information memo, are available by contacting the person listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT, or via the Internet at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/avocados/.
1995 Risk Management Analysis Back to Top
Small avocado seed weevils (Conotrachelus perseae and C. aguacatae), Large avocado seed weevil (Heilipus lauri),
Fruit flies (Anastrepha ludens, A. striata and A. serpentina),
1995 Supplemental Pest Risk Assessment and 1996 Addendum Back to Top
P6: Probability infested fruit in suitable habitat leads to outbreak=
Because the actual probabilities of the independent events comprising the risk model were not known, they were estimated. Although the probabilities were estimated, pertinent data were available for each independent event. The estimates were based to a large extent on expert judgment. A core team of four entomologists estimated probabilities, and numerous technical specialists (e.g., scientists specializing in particular taxonomic groups, port inspectors, specialists in international trade, etc.) were consulted throughout the process. The estimates were specified as probability distribution functions that described a range of values between specified maximums and minimums. The frequency of pest outbreaks was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation.
Table 1.—Pest Outbreak Frequency: Mexican Avocado Pests, by Program Alternative, as Calculated in the 1995 Supplemental Pest Risk Assessment Back to Top
A—No specific mitigation program
0.0139 or 1 chance in 72
0.0518 or 1 chance in 19
0.0105 or 1 chance in 95
0.0419 or 1 chance in 24
1.389 or 1 chance in 0.7
5.183 or 1 chance in 0.2
0.00282 or 1 chance in 355
0.0120 or 1 chance in 83
B—Systems approach for risk mitigation
8.64 × 10 −8 or 1 chance in 12 million
3.57 × 10 −7 or 1 chance in 3 million
6.66 × 10 −7 or 1 chance in 1.5 million
3.13 × 10 −6 or 1 chance in 320,000
8.77 × 10 −5 or 1 chance in 11,042
0.000387 or 1 chance in 2600
1.87 × 10 −7 or one chance in 5 million
8.98 × 10 −7 or one chance in 1.1 million
Table 2.—Pest Outbreak Frequency: Mexican Avocado Pests, by Program Alternative—Input Values Based on the 1997 Draft Final Rule Back to Top
8.89 × 10 −
11or 1 chance in 11 billion
4.85 × 10 −
8or 1 chance in 21 million
5.76 × 10 −
9or 1 chance in 173 million
4.01 × 10 −
7or 1 chance in 2.5 million
3.08 × 10 −
6or 1 chance in 325,000
1.03 × 10 −
4or 1 change in 9708
3.60 × 10 −
9or 1 chance in 278,000
1.19 × 10 −
7or 1 chance in 8 million
Identification of Susceptible Areas for the Establishment of Anastrepha spp. Fruit Flies in the United States and Analysis of Selected Pathways Back to Top
This document reviews the risk associated with Anastrepha spp., especially in relation to these pests as they occur in U.S. fruit imports from Mexico. It focuses on the likelihood that Anastrepha ludens (Mexfly), A. serpentina,
A. striata and A. fraterculus could become established in the United States via the Mexican avocado pathway. The study described in the document was motivated by U.S. grower concerns that existing and proposed changes in import patterns will pose increased risks to American agricultural productivity and profitability. This document represents the U.S. portion of a project by a subcommittee of the NAPPO Pest RiskAssessment Panel, and is intended to be published as part of a larger NAPPO document whenMexico and Canada's portions of the document are complete.
Paraphrasing from the document, the approach used was to first examine the resource at risk (commercial fruit production), then characterize host susceptibility (timing and location of susceptible fruit) and characterize climatology so as to study pest reproduction potential as a function of the previous factors. This approach can be characterized as an epidemiological analysis. The avocado pathway was used as a case study for the risks associated with fruit imports. The study used fruit cutting, pest survey, and trapping data that have been recorded since the initiation of the avocado import program to determine the probability that fruit flies are passing undetected along this pathway.
Epidemiologically, the study concludes that a combination of factors, primarily the Hass avocado's status as a poor to inadequate fruit fly host and the marginal conditions for fruit fly development in the growing areas, leads to low fruit fly densities in production areas. They note that Anastrepha spp. favor peaches, citrus, and other species of fruit over avocados. Statistically, the study demonstrates that the probability is near zero that fruit fly infestations (even very low-level infestations) are going undetected in inspections under the current avocado import program.That is, the statistical evidence suggests that if infestations were even as low as 1 Anastrepha spp. larva per 100,000 fruit, they would be detected with likelihood greater than 95 percent. The study concludes that the existing Anastrepha populations in Mexico, given the cropping and pest management practices currently in use there, are too low to be a threat to agriculture in the States currently approved to receive imported Mexican avocados or in the States that we are proposing to allow to receive imported Mexican avocados.
The current regulations in § 319.56-2ff require that Mexican avocado-producing municipalities and orchards that wish to participate in the U.S. import program must fulfill certain obligations regarding pest surveys. The municipality must be surveyed at least annually and found to be free of the large avocado seed weevil (Heilipus lauri), the avocado seed moth (Stenoma catenifer), and the small avocado seed weevils (Conotrachelus aguacatae and C. perseae). Trapping must be conducted in the municipality for Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) (Ceratitis capitata) at the rate of 1 trap per 1 to 4 square miles. The orchard and all contiguous orchards and properties must be surveyed annually and found to be free from the avocado stem weevil (Copturus aguacatae). Trapping must be conducted in the orchard for the fruit flies Anastrepha ludens,
A. serpentina, and A. striata at the rate of 1 trap for each 10 hectares.
Table 3.—Number of Mexican Hass Avocado Fruit Entering the United States Back to Top
25,816,800
41,664,000
49,773,600
42,854,400
160,108,800
40,027,200
Table 4.—Number of Mexican Hass Avocado Fruit Intercepted Outside Approved States Back to Top
Table 5.—Number of Mexican Hass Avocado Fruit Cut and Inspected Back to Top
Orchard (SAGARPA/APHIS)
Packinghouse (SAGARPA /APHIS)
1,583,615
1,121,471
1,341,521
952,423
1,209,814
4,439,013
5,464,173
1,366,043
Table 6.—Mexican Fruit Fly Trapping Data Back to Top
Number of fruit flies trapped during current and proposed shippingseasons by municipality
4 (Jan) 4 (Feb)
The May 2001 program review document, as well as complete import, inspection, fruit cutting, and survey data sets are available by contacting the person listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT and via the Internet at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/avocados/.
The changes proposed in this document would directly affect the estimates of risk in the 1995 risk management analysis, the 1995 supplemental pest risk assessment, and the 1996 addendum that relate to “limited distribution” of Hass avocados in the United States (19Northeastern States and District of Columbia) and “winter shipping only” (November through February).
The 1995 risk management analysis concluded that “winter shipping only” reduces the pest risk presented by fruit flies. In the risk management analysis, we estimated a risk reduction between 60 and 90 percent for fruit flies, given the “winter shipping only” restriction. According to the risk management analysis, the majority of reduction in pest risk from this mitigation measure can be attributed to limited adult fruit fly activity under colder temperatures in the growing areas in Mexico. Given this assumption, the question arises: Would extending the shipping season for 2 additional months to include March and April result in fruit being shipped from orchards with high rates of adult fruit fly activity? Trapping data collected as required by the current program would indicate this is not the case. In 4 years of trapping, only five fruit flies have been captured during the months of March and April. All five of those captures (three in March and two in April) occurred in a single season (2000) and in a single municipality(Salvador Escalante.) Climatological data presented in the document entitled “Identification of Susceptible Areas for the Establishment of Anastrepha spp. Fruit Flies in the United States and Analysis of Selected Pathways” (referred to below as Sequeira, et al.) indicate that even in the very unlikely event fruit flies were shipped with Mexican Hass avocados, escaped detection, and arrived during the months of March or April, temperatures in the approved and proposed States would still fall below the optima for fruit fly activity.
The pest risk assessment qualitatively estimated the PRP for the avocado seed weevils, stem weevil, seed moth, and fruit flies based on the pests' climatic needs, host range, dispersal potential, economic impact, and environmental impact. The addition of the 12 proposed States to the list of approved States and the extension of the shipping season do not alter host availability, nor would they be expected to appreciably impact the other risk elements that comprise the PRP. Consequently, the PRP ratings would be expected to remain at medium for seed weevils, stem weevil, and seed moth and high for fruit flies. The 1995 supplemental pest risk assessment used scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistically estimate the likelihood of introducing the above-named pests into the United States via imports of Mexican Hass avocados. The risk model for the analysis was comprised of seven nodes corresponding to specific independent events that must occur in order for a pest to be introduced. The impact of the proposed changes in the avocado program and the body of data collected under the current program are summarized below.
The 1996 addendum to the supplemental pest risk assessment estimated that the value for P1 would range between 5 × 10 −8 and 5 × 10 −6 for the fruit flies, between 5 × 10 −6 and 5 × 10 −5 for the seed weevils, between 1 × 10 −3 and 1 × 10 −2 for the stem weevil, and between 5 × 10 −6 and 5 × 10 −5 for the seed moth. One might suspect that the risk of Mexican Hass avocados being infested with fruit flies (if one accepts that Hass avocado is a host for fruit flies) would increase as the shipping season was extended into March and April based on the assumption that as temperatures warmed, fruit flies would become more active. However, as described above, fruit fly trapping data do not support the assumption that there is significant adult fruit fly activity in Michoacan avocado orchards in March and April. Likewise, fruit cutting in the orchards has produced no finds of any of the pests of concern, even after sampling nearly 4.5 million fruit over the course of 4 growing seasons. Similarly, no pest detections have been made after cutting nearly 1 million fruit in packinghouse inspections. To date, nearly 3.4 million boxes of Mexican Hass avocados have been shipped to the United States under the import program with no target pest finds. These data suggest that, even with an increase in the volume of imports, the original risk assessment numbers still represent a reasonable estimate and may even overestimate the likelihood that pests will infest program fruit.
We have reviewed the documents summarized above and find that the evidence, assumptions, and conclusions of the 1995 risk management analysis and the 1995 supplemental pest risk assessment and its 1996 addendum would remain valid even if the proposed changes are made to the Mexican Hass avocado program. Therefore, we have determined that the importation of Hass avocados from Mexico in accordance with the existing regulations as modified by this proposed rule would present a negligible risk of introducing plant pests into the United States.
The risk assessment documents used as the basis for the existing program take into account that fruit flies and stem weevils exist in avocado production areas in Mexico. The regulations in § 319.56-2ff require that trapping must be conducted in the orchard for the fruit flies Anastrepha ludens, A. serpentina, and A. striata at the rate of one trap per 10 hectares. If one of those fruit flies is trapped, at least 10 additional traps must be deployed in a 50-hectare area immediately surrounding the trap in which the fruit fly was found. If within 30 days of the first finding any additional fruit flies are trapped within the 260-hectare area surrounding the first finding, malathion bait treatments must be applied in the affected orchard in order for the orchard to remain eligible to export avocados.
Survey information from trapping in avocado orchards, and fruit cutting in avocado orchards, packinghouses in the production areas in Mexico, and at the border when shipments enter the United States, show that avocados imported under the Mexican Hass avocado import program are not infested by any pest of concern (see Table 5 under the heading Risk AssessmentDocumentation Supporting the Proposed Rule). Based on these surveys, we believe the elements of the systems approach regulations described above protect against infestation or reinfestation of avocado orchards from neighboring orchards and from untreated, backyard-grown host plants in the production areas.
The Sequeira, et al., study identifies U.S. States that have suitable host material for fruit flies. Based on the findings of the Sequeira, et al., study and the other risk documents discussed in this document, we are not proposing to allow avocados to be imported into any of the sevenStates listed above by the commenter (AL, AZ, CA, GA, FL, LA, and TX).
We agree with the commenters that any determination regarding when and where avocados may be distributed in the United States should be based on a study of all relevant climate-related factors. For the 1995 and 1996 risk documents, we used only temperature data in considering the risk posed by imported Mexican Hass avocados. However, the Sequeira, et al., study, which is described above, considers and evaluates the effects of the following climate-related variables on potential fruit fly establishment:
We believe that the 1995 and 1996 risk documents, in conjunction with the Sequeira, et al., study and 4 years of trapping and shipping data, provide a sound scientific basis for this proposed rule. APHIS' review and consideration of the existing pest risk analysis for the avocado program is described in the information memo for the record mentioned earlier in this document. The information memo for the record explains our proposal to expand the area of distribution to include 12 more States and lengthen the shipping season by the months of March and April and is supported by the documents described above under the heading Risk Assessment Documentation Supporting the Proposed Rule. We acknowledge that there have been developments in risk methodology since 1995, but there are no new methodologies that would substantively alter the findings of the pest risk analysis used for the 1997 final rule.
For this proposed rule, we have prepared a regulatory impact analysis. The regulatory impact analysis also contains an initial regulatory flexibility analysis, which considers the potential economic effects of this proposed rule on small entities, as required under 5 U.S.C. 603. The regulatory impact analysis and regulatory flexibility analysis are summarized below. Copies of the full analysis are available by contacting the person listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT, or on the Internet at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/avocados/. We do not currently have all of the data necessary for a comprehensive analysis of the effects of this proposed rule on small entities. Therefore, we are inviting comments on potential effects. In particular, we are interested in determining the number and kind of small entities that may incur benefits or costs from the implementation of this proposed rule.
Summary of Regulatory Impact Analysis Back to Top
Our analysis considers economic impacts on U.S. producers and consumers/ merchandisers of Hass avocados that could result from allowing fresh Hass avocados from Michoacan, Mexico, to be imported into additional areas of the United States and over a longer period each year than is currently allowed. Since the 1997/98 season, imports of avocados from approved orchards in Michoacan, Mexico, have been allowed to be imported into the UnitedStates and distributed in Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the months of November through January. Under this proposed rule, distribution would be expanded to include the States of Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana,Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. The shipping season would also be expanded to include March and April.
The second scenario (85 percent diversion) yields producers losses and consumer/ merchandiser gains comparable to the first one. Net losses in the approved States ($13.93 million per year) and net benefits in the nonapproved States ($22.79 million per year) combine for an overall net gain estimated at $8.87 million per year.
Summary of Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis Back to Top
Copies of the environmental assessment are available for public inspection at USDA, room 1141, South Building, 14th Street and Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC, between 8 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, except holidays. Persons wishing to inspect copies are requested to call ahead on (202) 690-2817 to facilitate entry into the reading room. In addition, copies may be obtained by writing to the person listed under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT. The environmental assessment is also available on the Internet at: http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/avocados/.
In accordance with section 3507(d) of the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.), the information collection or recordkeeping requirements included in this proposed rule have been submitted for approval to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Please send written comments to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, OMB, Attention: Desk Officer for APHIS, Washington, DC 20503. Please state that your comments refer to Docket No. 00-003-2. Please send a copy of your comments to: (1) Docket No. 00-003-2, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS, suite 3C03, 4700 River Road Unit 118, Riverdale, MD 20737-1238, and (2) Clearance Officer, OCIO, USDA, room 404-W, 14th Street and Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20250. A comment to OMB is best assured of having its full effect if OMB receives it within 30 days of publication of this proposed rule.
7 U.S.C. 166, 450, 7711-7714, 7718, 7731, 7732, and 7751-7754; 21 U.S.C. 136 and 136a; 7 CFR 2.22, 2.80, and 371.3.
§ 319.56-2ff Administrative instructions governing movement of Hass avocados from Mexico to approved States.
Fresh Hass variety avocados (Persea americana) may be imported from Mexico into the United States for distribution in approved States only under a permit issued in accordance with § 319.56-4, and only under the following conditions:
(2) All cities on the boundary lines described in paragraph (g)(1) of this section are included in this shipping area. If the avocados are moved by air, the aircraft may not land outside this shipping area. (3) Avocados that enter the United States at Nogales, AZ, must be moved to Las Cruces, NM, by the route specified on the permit, and then must remain within the shipping area described in paragraph (g)(1) of this section.