Source: https://m.openjurist.org/536/us/452/utah-et-al-v-evans-secretary-of-commerce-et-al
Timestamp: 2019-11-12 16:28:07
Document Index: 622106419

Matched Legal Cases: ['§ 141', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 195', '§ 1', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 195', '§ 195', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 327', '§ 1', '§ 6', '§ 195', '§ 1', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 2', '§ 2456']

536 U.S. 452 - Utah et al. v. Evans Secretary of Commerce et al.
536 US 452 Utah et al. v. Evans Secretary of Commerce et al.
536 U.S. 452
Utah makes several additional arguments. It says that in House of Representatives, the Court found that two methods, virtually identical to imputation, constituted "sampling." It says that the Bureau, if authorized to engage in imputation, might engage in wide-scale substitution of imputation for person-by-person counting. And it says that, in any event, the Bureau's methods for imputing status and occupancy, see supra, at 458, are inaccurate.
In our view, however, House of Representatives is distinguishable. The two instances of Bureau methodology at issue there satisfied the technical criteria for "sampling" in ways that the imputation here at issue does not. In both instances, the Bureau planned at the outset to produce a statistically sound sample from which it extrapolated characteristics of an entire population. In the first instance it did so by selecting census blocks randomly from which to extrapolate global census figures in order to compare (and adjust) the accuracy of figures obtained in traditional ways with figures obtained through statistical sampling. 525 U. S., at 325-326. In the second instance it used a sample drawn from questionnaire nonrespondents in particular census tracts in order to obtain the population figure for the entire tract. The "sampling" in the second instance more closely resembles the present effort to fill in missing data, for the "sample" of nonrespondents was large (about 20% of the tract) compared to the total nonresponding population (about 30% of the entire tract). Id., at 324-325. Nonetheless, we believe that the Bureau's view of the enterprise as sampling, the deliberate decision taken in advance to find an appropriate sample, the sampling methods used to do so, the immediate objective of determining through extrapolation the size of the entire nonresponding population, and the quantitative figures at issue (10% of the tract there; 0.4% here), all taken together, distinguish it — in degree if not in kind — from the imputation here at issue.
Nor are Utah's other two arguments convincing. As to the first, Utah has not claimed that the Bureau has used imputation to manipulate results. It has not explained how census-taking that fills in ultimate blanks through imputation is more susceptible to manipulation than census-taking that fills in ultimate blanks with a zero. And given the advance uncertainties as to which States imputation might favor, manipulation would seem difficult to arrange. If JUSTICE O'CONNOR's speculation comes to pass — that the Bureau would decide, having litigated this case and utilized imputation in a subsequent census, to forgo the benefits of that process because of its results — the Court can address the problem at that time. As to the second, Utah's claim concerns the nature of the imputation method, not its accuracy as applied — though we add that neither the record, see infra, at 477, nor JUSTICE O'CONNOR's opinion, see post, at 487-488, gives us any reason to doubt that accuracy here.
We note one further legal hurdle that Utah has failed to overcome — the Bureau's own interpretation of the statute. The Bureau, which recommended this statute to Congress, has consistently, and for many years, interpreted the statute as permitting imputation. Hogan ¶¶ 39, 41, 43, 46, 47, 52, App. 266-273. Congress, aware of this interpretation, has enacted related legislation without changing the statute. See, e. g., Census Address List Improvement Act of 1994, Pub. L. 103-430, 108 Stat. 4393; Foreign Direct Investment and International Financial Data Improvements Act of 1990, Pub. L. 101-533, 104 Stat. 2344; Act of Oct. 14, 1986, Pub. L. 99-467, 100 Stat. 1192. (Indeed, the Bureau told Congress of its planned use of imputation in the year 2000 census without meeting objection.) And the statute itself delegates to the Secretary the authority to conduct the decennial census "in such form and content as he may determine." 13 U. S. C. § 141(a). Although we do not rely on it here, under these circumstances we would grant legal deference to the Bureau's own legal conclusion were that deference to make the difference. Chevron U. S. A. Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 467 U. S. 837, 842-845 (1984).
"Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States ... according to their respective Numbers ... counting the whole number of persons in each State.... The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, ... in such Manner as they shall by Law direct." Art. I, § 2, cl. 3 (emphasis added); see also Amdt. 14, § 2.
Moreover, both phrases served to distinguish the census from the process of apportionment for the first Congress. Read in conjunction with the proceedings of the Constitutional Convention, the text of Article I makes clear that the original allocation of seats in the House was based on a kind of "conjectur[e]," 1 id., at 578-579, in contrast to the deliberately taken count that was ordered for the future. U. S. Const., Art. I, § 2, cl. 3; 1 Farrand 602; 2 id., at 106; 2 The Founders' Constitution 135-136, 139 (P. Kurland & R. Lerner eds. 1987) (hereinafter Kurland & Lerner); see also Department of Commerce, 503 U. S., at 448, and n. 15; post, at 498-500 (THOMAS, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part) (describing colonial estimates). What was important was that contrast — rather than the particular phrase used to describe the new process.
Contemporaneous general usage of the word "enumeration" adds further support. Late-18th-century dictionaries define the word simply as an "act of numbering or counting over," without reference to counting methodology. 1 S. Johnson, A Dictionary of the English Language 658 (4th rev. ed. 1773); N. Bailey, An Etymological English Dictionary (26th ed. 1789) ("numbering or summing up"); see also Webster's Third New International Dictionary 759 (1961 ed.) ("the act of counting," "a count of something (as a population)"). Utah's strongest evidence, a letter from George Washington contrasting a population "estimate" with a "census" or "enumeration," does not demonstrate the contrary, for one can indeed contrast, say, a rough estimate with an enumeration, without intending to encompass in the former anything like the Bureau's use of imputation to fill gaps or clarify confused information about individuals. 31 Writings of George Washington 329 (J. Fitzpatrick ed. 1931); see 8 Writings of Thomas Jefferson 236 (A. Lipscomb ed. 1903) (comparing the "actual returns" with "conjectures"); 1 Farrand 602; 2 id., at 106; Kurland & Lerner 135-136. And the evidence JUSTICE THOMAS sets forth, post, at 498-500 (opinion concurring in part and dissenting in part), demonstrates the same. The kinds of estimates to which his sources refer are those based on "the number of taxable polls, or the number of the militia." Post, at 494 (internal quotation marks omitted). Such sources show nothing other than that "enumeration" may be "incompatible (or at least arguably incompatible...) with gross statistical estimates," House of Representatives, 525 U. S., at 347 (SCALIA, J., concurring in part), but such "gross statistical estimates" are not at stake here.
Of course, this last limitation suggests that the Framers expected census enumerators to seek to reach each individual household. And insofar as statistical methods substitute for any such effort, it may be argued that the Framers did not believe that the Constitution authorized their use. See House of Representatives, supra, at 346-349 (SCALIA, J., concurring in part). But we need not decide this matter here, for we do not deal with the substitution of statistical methods for efforts to reach households and enumerate each individual. Here the Census Bureau's method is used sparingly only after it has exhausted its efforts to reach each individual, and it does not differ in principle from other efforts used since 1800 to determine the number of missing persons. Census takers have long asked heads of households, "neighbors, landlords, postal workers, or other proxies" about the number of inhabitants in a particular place, Hogan ¶ 11, App. 253. Such reliance on hearsay need be no more accurate, is no less inferential, and rests upon no more of an individualized effort for its inferences than the Bureau's method of imputation.
Nor can Utah draw support from a consideration of the basic purposes of the Census Clause. That Clause reflects several important constitutional determinations: that comparative state political power in the House would reflect comparative population, not comparative wealth; that comparative power would shift every 10 years to reflect population changes; that federal tax authority would rest upon the same base; and that Congress, not the States, would determine the manner of conducting the census. See Wesberry v. Sanders, 376 U. S. 1, 9-14, and n. 34 (1964); 1 Farrand 35-36, 196-201, 540-542, 559-560, 571, 578-588, 591-597, 603; 2 id., at 2-3, 106; Kurland & Lerner 86-144; see The Federalist No. 54, pp. 336-341 (C. Rossiter ed. 1961) (J. Madison); id., No. 55, at 341-350 (J. Madison); id., No. 58, at 356-361 (J. Madison); 31 Writings of George Washington, supra, at 329. These basic determinations reflect the fundamental nature of the Framers' concerns. Insofar as JUSTICE THOMAS proves that the Framers chose to use population, rather than wealth or a combination of the two, as the basis for representation, post, at 500-503, we agree with him. What he does not show, however, is that, in order to avoid bias or for other reasons, they prescribed, or meant to prescribe, the precise method by which Congress was to determine the population. And he cannot show the latter because, for the most part, the choice to base representation on population, like the other fundamental choices the Framers made, are matters of general principle that do not directly help determine the issue of detailed methodology before us. Declaration of Jack N. Rakove in Department of Commerce v. United States House of Representatives, O. T. 1998, No. 98-404, p. 387 ("What was at issue ... were fundamental principles of representation itself ... not the secondary matter of exactly how census data was to be compiled").
Nonetheless, certain basic constitutional choices may prove relevant. The decisions, for example, to use population rather than wealth, to tie taxes and representation together, to insist upon periodic recounts, and to take from the States the power to determine methodology all suggest a strong constitutional interest in accuracy. And an interest in accuracy here favors the Bureau. That is because, as we have said, the Bureau uses imputation only as a last resort — after other methods have failed. In such instances, the Bureau's only choice is to disregard the information it has, using a figure of zero, or to use imputation in an effort to achieve greater accuracy. And Bureau information provided in the District Court suggests that those efforts have succeeded. U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Admin., Census 2000 Informational Memorandum No. 110, App. 445-448 (concluding that postcensus research confirms that imputation appropriately included individuals in the census who would otherwise have been excluded).
Valle Simms Dutcher and L. Lynn Hogue filed a brief for the Southeastern Legal Foundation, Inc., as amicus curiae urging reversal.
In the year 2000 census, the Census Bureau used the statistical technique known as "hot-deck imputation" to calculate the state population totals that were used to apportion congressional Representatives. While I agree with the Court's general description of the imputation process, its conclusion that the appellants have standing to challenge its use, and its conclusion that we otherwise have jurisdiction to consider that challenge, I would find that the Bureau's use of imputation constituted a form of sampling and thus was prohibited by § 195 of the Census Act, 13 U. S. C. § 1 et seq. Therefore, while I concur in Parts I and II of the majority's opinion, I respectfully dissent from Part III and have no occasion to decide whether the Constitution prohibits imputation, which the majority addresses in Part IV.
* To conduct the year 2000 census, the Census Bureau (Bureau) first created a master address file that attempted to list every residential housing unit in the United States. See U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Admin., Census 2000 Operational Plan VI (Dec. 2000) (hereinafter Census 2000 Operational Plan). The Bureau then conducted a survey of every address on that list, primarily through the use of mail-back questionnaires. See id., at IX.A to IX.E; ante, at 457. As relevant here, these questionnaires requested the name of each person living at a given address. See Census 2000 Operational Plan V.B.
Because not every address returned a questionnaire, the Bureau had its enumerators attempt to contact nonresponding addresses up to six times by phone or in person in an effort to obtain population information for each address. See Declaration of Howard Hogan ¶ 73, App. 285 (hereinafter Hogan); Census 2000 Operational Plan IX.G. This was known as "nonresponse followup." Ibid. Also during this followup procedure, addresses that appeared vacant were marked as such while addresses determined to be nonexistent were noted for later deletion. See Hogan ¶¶ 69, 73, App. 283, 285. When all followup procedures were completed, the Bureau still lacked population information for approximately 0.4% of the addresses on the master address list because the Bureau had been unable to classify them as either "occupied, vacant, or nonexistent." Id., at 188. Additionally, the Bureau lacked household size information for approximately 0.2% of addresses that were classified as occupied. See id., at 191.
As initially enacted, § 195 provided that "[e]xcept for the determination of population for apportionment purposes, the Secretary [of Commerce] may, where he deems it appropriate, authorize the use of the statistical method known as `sampling' in carrying out the provisions of this title." 13 U. S. C. § 195 (1970 ed.). As relevant here, Congress replaced "may, where he deems it appropriate" with "shall, if he considers it feasible" when it amended § 195 in 1976. Pub. L. 94-521, 90 Stat. 2464. In House of Representatives, we found that this amended language "might reasonably be read as either permissive or prohibitive with regard to the use of sampling for apportionment purposes." 525 U. S., at 339. Even so, we held that § 195 maintained the prohibition on sampling with respect to apportionment given the "broader context" of "over 200 years during which federal statutes [had] prohibited the use of statistical sampling where apportionment [was] concerned." Id., at 339-341. With respect to § 195, then, the only question is whether "hot-deck imputation" is a form of sampling.
"In our common experience, `sampling' occurs whenever the information on a portion of a population is used to infer information on the population as a whole[,] ... [although] [a]mong professional statisticians, the term `sample' is reserved for instances when the selection of the smaller population is based on the methodology of their science." Report to Congress — The Plan for Census 2000, p. 23 (revised and reissued Aug. 1997).
To counter this conclusion, the majority contends that the Bureau's use of imputation differs from sampling in several different ways. First, the majority argues that the Bureau's use of imputation differs quantitatively from other forms of sampling, suggesting that estimating nonresponse is not sampling when the amount of nonresponse is very small. See ante, at 471 (contrasting the use of sampling to estimate a 10% level of nonresponse with the use of imputation to estimate a 0.4% level of nonresponse). But the majority provides no statistical basis to suggest that sampling is confined to "large" estimates. Moreover, we have already decided that the extent of the Bureau's reliance on sampling is irrelevant when we held that § 195 prohibits sampling for apportionment purposes regardless of whether it is used as a "`substitute'" for or "`supplement'" to a traditional enumeration. House of Representatives, supra, at 342.
Indeed, the majority more generally acknowledges that the Bureau's reliance on imputation may be distinguishable only in degree from other forms of sampling. See ante, at 471 (stating that the sampling at issue in House of Representatives differs "in degree if not in kind" from the imputation at issue here). But the majority provides no statistical basis for claiming a difference of degree matters to the question of what constitutes sampling, nor does it explain how a meaningful line between sampling and nonsampling could be drawn on such a basis.
With respect to how a sample is selected, the majority argues that imputation does not look like methods employed "to find a subset that will resemble a whole through the use of artificial, random selection processes." Ante, at 467. But the Bureau's "nearest neighbor" imputation process is just as artificial as any other form of nonrandom selection, and it is beyond dispute that nonrandom selection methods — including those that produce nonrepresentative samples — may be used for sampling. See, e. g., W. Hendricks, Mathematical Theory of Sampling 239-241 (1956); P. Sukhatme, Sampling Theory of Surveys with Applications 10 (1954); F. Stephan, History of the Uses of Modern Sampling Procedures, 43 J. Am. Statistical Assn. 12, 21 (1948) (all indicating that nonrandom selection methods may be used for sampling); see also Yates, supra, at 17; R. Jessen, Statistical Survey Techniques 16 (1978); W. Deming, Sample Design in Business Research 32 (1960) (together indicating that the selection of nonrepresentative or "biased" samples may be permissible, preferred, or even deliberate). Finally, even if random and unbiased selection methods were assumed to be more accurate than other methods of sampling, it would make little sense to construe § 195 as prohibiting only the most accurate forms of sampling.
Fourth, the majority contends that some definitions of sampling, if viewed broadly, contain no limiting principle and thus might encompass even "the mental process of inference." Ante, at 470. But recognizing the Bureau's use of imputation as a form of sampling does not require that sampling be read so broadly. Instead, sampling under § 195 can be confined to situations where a selected subset of the population has been directly surveyed on a particular attribute and then that subset is used to estimate population characteristics of that same attribute. Such a limitation is neither ill defined nor all encompassing.
Apart from the above arguments, which primarily relate to the statistical characterization of imputation, the majority makes several additional arguments. It contends that Congress' use of the term "sampling" should be read narrowly, limited to what "the Secretary called `sampling,' at the time." Ante, at 469. But the statutory prohibition was not written in terms of what the Secretary viewed as sampling, nor is there any reason to think Congress intended the term "sampling" to be read narrowly as a tight restriction on the Bureau's ability to gather data for nonapportionment purposes. Rather, the "purpose ... [was] to permit the utilization of something less than a complete enumeration, as implied by the word `census,' ... except with respect to apportionment." H. R. Rep. No. 1043, 85th Cong., 1st Sess., 10 (1957) (emphasis added). This suggests "sampling" was meant in a broad rather than narrow sense.
The majority downplays the idea that imputation could be used to manipulate census results, arguing that "manipulation would seem difficult to arrange" in light of the "uncertainties as to which States imputation might favor." Ante, at 472. But in every census where imputation would alter the resulting apportionment, the mere decision to impute or not to impute is a source of possible manipulation. While that might be averted if the Bureau were required to use imputation, I do not read the majority's opinion to demand that. Moreover, in the past, we have given deference to the Secretary's decision not to statistically adjust the census, even when a final decision on that matter was not made until after the census was completed. See Wisconsin v. City of New York, 517 U. S. 1, 10-11, 20-24 (1996).
Finally, the majority suggests that imputation is somehow "better" than making no statistical adjustment at all. Ante, at 470. But no party has cited a study suggesting that imputation improves distributive accuracy, and the Bureau admits that numeric rather than distributive accuracy "drove the process." Hogan ¶ 34, App. 264; see also id., at ¶¶ 34-35, App. 265 (acknowledging that it may be "impossible to know a priori the effects of a particular census operation on distributive accuracy" and that "[i]n designing Census 2000, the Census Bureau did not reject operations that would improve numeric accuracy ... even if these operations might affect distributive accuracy negatively" (emphasis added)). I therefore would not assume that imputation necessarily resulted in a "better" census given the recognized importance of distributive accuracy in assessing overall accuracy. See Wisconsin, supra, at 20 (stating that "a preference for distributive accuracy (even at the expense of some numerical accuracy) would seem to follow from the constitutional purpose of the census, viz., to determine the apportionment of the Representatives among the States").
Conducting a census to count over 200 million people is an enormously complicated and difficult undertaking. To facilitate the task, statisticians have created various methods to supplement the door-to-door inquiries associated with the "actual Enumeration" and "counting [of] the whole number of persons in each State" required by the Constitution. Art. I, § 2, cl. 3; Amdt. 14, § 2. Today we consider whether 13 U. S. C. § 195 prohibits the use of one of these methods — hot-deck imputation — for apportionment purposes, and if not, whether its use is permissible under the Constitution. In accordance with our decision in Franklin v. Massachusetts, 505 U. S. 788 (1992), I believe that we have jurisdiction to consider these questions concerning the year 2000 census. For essentially the same reasons given by the Court, I agree that imputation is not prohibited by 13 U. S. C. § 195.
I cannot agree, however, with the Court's resolution of the constitutional question. The Constitution apportions power among the States based on their respective populations; consequently, changes in population shift the balance of power among them. Mindful of the importance of calculating the population, the Framers chose their language with precision, requiring an "actual Enumeration," U. S. Const., Art. I, § 2, cl. 3. They opted for this language even though they were well aware that estimation methods and inferences could be used to calculate population. If the language of the Census Clause leaves any room for doubt, the historical context, debates accompanying ratification, and subsequent early Census Acts confirm that the use of estimation techniques — such as "hot-deck imputation," sampling, and the like — do not comply with the Constitution.
* The use of the statistical technique known as hot-deck imputation increased the final year 2000 census count by 1,172,144 people, representing 0.42 percent of the Nation's total population. U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Admin., Census 2000 Informational Memorandum No. 110, App. 443. Utilization of this method in the year 2000 census had important consequences for two States in particular, North Carolina and Utah: North Carolina gained one Representative and Utah lost one Representative as a result of hot-deck imputation. See ante, at 458.
While the Court has aptly described the process of "hot-deck imputation," several facts about this method are worth noting at the outset. The Census Bureau refers to hot-deck imputation procedures as "estimation." U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Decennial Statistical Studies Division, Census 2000 Procedures and Operations, Memorandum Series Q-34 (hereinafter Memorandum Series), App. 153, 156. It used this form of "estimation" for three different categories of units: (1) those units classified as occupied but with no population count (household size imputation), (2) those units that are unclassified (either occupied or vacant) but that "we know exist" (occupancy imputation), and (3) those units that are unclassified and are "either occupied, vacant, or delete" (status imputation). Memorandum Series B-17, id., at 194-195. The "status imputation" category is the most troubling, because, as explained by the Department of Commerce, it refers to households "for which we know nothing," id., at 195, and therefore which may not even exist.
The Framers constitutionalized the requirement that a census be conducted every decade. U. S. Const., Art. I, § 2, cl. 3. In so doing, they chose their words with precision. Chief Justice Marshall instructed that "[a]s men whose intentions require no concealment, generally employ the words which most directly and aptly express the ideas they intend to convey, the enlightened patriots who framed our constitution, and the people who adopted it, must be understood to have employed words in their natural sense, and to have intended what they have said." Gibbons v. Ogden, 9 Wheat. 1, 188 (1824). We should be guided, therefore, by the Census Clause's "original meaning, for `[t]he Constitution is a written instrument. As such its meaning does not alter. That which it meant when adopted, it means now.'" McIntyre v. Ohio Elections Comm'n, 514 U. S. 334, 359 (1995) (THOMAS, J., concurring in judgment) (quoting South Carolina v. United States, 199 U. S. 437, 448 (1905)).
Article I, § 2, cl. 3, as modified by § 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment, provides: "Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed." The Census Clause specifies that this "actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct." Art. I, § 2, cl. 3.2
The Court also places undue weight on the penultimate version of the Clause, the iteration that was given to the Committee of Detail and Committee of Style. See ante, at 474-475. Whatever may be said of the earlier version, the Court rejected a similar reliance in Nixon v. United States, 506 U. S. 224, 231 (1993), because "we must presume that the Committee's reorganization or rephrasing accurately captured what the Framers meant in their unadorned language." Carrying the majority's "argument to its logical conclusion would constrain us to say that the second to last draft would govern in every instance where the Committee of Style added an arguably substantive word. Such a result is at odds with the fact that the Convention passed the Committee's version, and with the well-established rule that the plain language of the enacted text is the best indicator of intent." Id., at 231-232. Rather than rely on the draft, I focus on the words of the adopted Constitution.
* Census taking is an age-old practice. With only a few exceptions, however, before the 19th century most countries conducted partial enumerations that were supplemented by estimates of the unenumerated portion of the population. Wolfe, Population Censuses Before 1790, 27 J. Am. Statistical Assn. 357 (1932) (hereinafter Wolfe). The contentious history of censuses, partial or otherwise, has long influenced decisions about whether to undertake them. See id., at 358 ("The Biblical account of the Lord's wrath at the taking of [the `census' taken by David] remained an argument against census taking even as late as the eighteenth century").8 It is a history rampant with manipulation for political and fiscal gains. See generally id., at 359-370; Alterman 43, 54; Glass 19-20.
Many Americans resisted census-taking efforts. According to an 1887 inventory of the Colonies' attempts at population estimates, "Connecticut pursued in her colonial history the policy of hiding her strength in quietness; so far as might not be inconsistent with general truthfulness, she preferred to make no exhibit of her actual condition." Id., at 31.10 A 1712 census in New York "met with so much opposition, from superstitious fear of its breeding sickness, that only partial returns were obtained." Id., at 34 (citations omitted). See also Century 3. In New Jersey, the population counts of the mid-18th century apparently comprised "such guesses as the Royal Governors could make, for the satisfaction of their superiors." Dexter 36. In 1766, Benjamin Franklin "supposed that there might be about 160,000 whites in Pennsylvania ... but he did not profess to speak with accuracy, and was under a bias which led him, perhaps unconsciously, into cautious understatement." Id., at 38. Georgia was apparently "singularly misrepresented, being overestimated in the Federal Convention of 1787 at nearly half as much again as her real amount of population, while the rest of the colonies were underestimated considerably, — the total of the Convention's figures falling short of the reality by more than half a million." Id., at 49.
Another elaborate effort at population calculation was undertaken by the Governor of Massachusetts in 1763, who estimated his Colony's population in three ways. First, he made an estimate from a return to the General Court of "`rateable polls'" of males over 16 eligible to vote. He added an estimate of males who were too poor to pay the poll tax, and then added similar numbers of females. He made another estimate by multiplying the militia returns by four. He calculated a third estimate from the number of houses. Since many believed that houses averaged five occupants and others "preferred five and a half," he used both numbers. After giving the British Board of Trade several numbers, however, he concluded that the "actual population was none of these figures" and the population was in fact higher. Cassedy 73. In any event, "[s]ince all of the returns used in the estimates had been made for tax purposes, it was understood that they would be well on the low side." Ibid. The Framers were quite familiar not only with various census-taking methods but also with impediments to their successful completion. The Continental Congress had already used population estimates to make decisions about taxation, and such efforts were met with resistance. In 1775, the Continental Congress had ascertained population estimates for the Colonies in order to apportion the taxes and costs of the Revolutionary War. Pitkin 583. See also Halacy 30-31 ("Debts incurred in the Revolutionary War hastened the ordering of a standard form of census. A census of the colonies had been ordered, but some of them never complied, and the rest did so in different ways"). New Hampshire in particular complained that the estimate of its population for the purposes of calculating Revolutionary War costs was too high. Pitkin 583. It had "caused an actual enumeration to be ... made, by which it appeared, that the number of her inhabitants" was 20,000 lower than the estimate. Ibid. See also Brief for Appellants 47. New Hampshire petitioned the Continental Congress to change the amount of taxation. New Hampshire's effort was in vain, because Congress "refused to alter her proportion of her taxes on that account." Ibid. See also 10 New Hampshire Provincial and State Papers 580 (reprint 1973) ("[T]he [proportion of taxes assigned New Hampshire by Congress in 1781] is too high by a very considerable sum, that by our numbers which were taken in the year 1775 by the selectmen of the several Towns & Parishes & Return made under Oath ... this proportion will appear much too large").
The Framers knew that the calculation of populations could be and often were skewed for political or financial purposes. Debate about apportionment and the census consequently focused for the most part on creating a standard that would limit political chicanery. While the Framers did not extensively discuss the method of census taking, many expressed the desire to bind or "shackle" the legislature so that neither future Congresses nor the States would be able to let their biases influence the manner of apportionment. See Founders' Constitution 103-104. As James Madison explained:
Some who initially believed that the Congress should have discretion changed their minds after listening to the arguments by Randolph, Mason, and others. Roger Sherman, for example, "was at first for leaving the matter wholly to the discretion of the Legislature; but he had been convinced by the observations of (Mr. Randolph & Mr. Mason) that the periods & the rule of revising the Representation ought to be fixt by the Constitution." Id., at 104. Ghorum perceptively noted that "[i]f the Convention who are comparatively so little biassed by local views are so much perplexed, How can it be expected that the Legislature hereafter under the full biass of those views, will be able to settle a standard." Ibid. On the other hand, Reid continued to believe that "the Legislature ought not to be too much shackled." Ibid. He also thought that "[it] would make the Constitution like Religious Creeds, embarrassing to those bound to conform to them & more likely to produce dissatisfaction and Scism, than harmony and union." Ibid. While debate continued, with various iterations of the clause considered, it was clear that the principle concern was that the Constitution establish a standard resistant to manipulation. As Justice Story later observed, "apportion[ing] representatives among the states according to their relative numbers ... had the recommendation of great simplicity and uniformity in its operation, of being generally acceptable to the people, and of being less liable to fraud and evasion, than any other, which could be devised." Commentaries on the Constitution of the United States § 327, p. 238 (R. Rotunda & J. Nowak eds. 1987).
We have long relied on contemporaneous constructions of the Constitution when interpreting its provisions, for "early congressional enactments `provid[e] "contemporaneous and weighty evidence" of the Constitution's meaning.'" Printz v. United States, 521 U. S. 898, 905 (1997) (citations omitted). See also Myers v. United States, 272 U. S. 52, 175 (1926) ("This Court has repeatedly laid down the principle that a contemporaneous legislative exposition of the Constitution when the founders of our Government and framers of our Constitution were actively participating in public affairs, acquiesced in for a long term of years, fixes the construction to be given its provisions") (collecting cases). Accordingly, I turn next to the early Census Acts, which provide significant additional evidence that the Framers meant what they said in adopting the words "actual Enumeration."
From the first census, Congress directed that the census be taken by actually counting the people. House of Representatives, 525 U. S., at 335. Congress enacted a series of requirements for how to accomplish the counting; none mention the use of sampling or any other statistical technique or method of estimation. Rather, the first Census Act described, among other things, how many census takers (or deputies) could be used, their pay, the consequences of falsifying papers, what address to attribute to persons who had more than one address, and how to count those who did not have an address. Congress ordered the first census to begin on August 2, 1790, and to be completed within nine months. Century 45. Marshals and their assistants were required to "take an oath or affirmation" to "`truly cause to be made, a just and perfect enumeration and description of all persons resident within [their] district[s].'" Act of Mar. 1, 1790, § 1, reprinted in Wright 925.
Apparently concerned about the effect that the results of the first census would have on foreign opinion, Jefferson, in a 1791 letter sending the results abroad, explained: "I enclose you a copy of our census, which, so far as it is written in black ink, is founded on actual returns, what is in red ink being conjectured, but very near the truth. Making very small allowance for omissions, which we know to have been very great, we may safely say we are above four millions." 8 Writings of Thomas Jefferson, at 229. While perhaps disappointed with the results of the census, he noted the difference between the returns that were "actual" and those that were added in red ink by "conjectur[e]." Ibid.11 There is no suggestion, however, that his additional "conjectures" were used for apportionment. See T. Woolsey, The First Century of the Republic 221 (1876); Alterman 205. "Despite its deficiencies, the census provided the factual base about the American people which officials and scholars needed." Cassedy 220. Thus, while the Court asserts that there was a "strong constitutional interest in accuracy," ante, at 478, the stronger suggestion is that the Framers placed a higher value on preventing political manipulation.
In recent decades, decisions regarding whether, and what kind of, imputation and other statistical methods should be utilized have changed from administration to administration. Departing from past practice, imputation was first used in the year 1960 census. The Bureau has used some form of it in every decennial census since then. Plaintiffs' Statement of Undisputed Facts, App. 44; Response to Plaintiffs' Statement of Material Facts, id., at 222. In the year 1970 census, about 900,000 persons were imputed to the apportionment count through household size and occupancy imputation. The Census Bureau also used a form of estimation that combined imputation and sampling. Declaration of Howard Hogan, id., at 268-269 (hereinafter Hogan). In 1980, the use of imputation shifted one seat in the House of Representatives from Indiana to Florida, id., at 46, 224, making the year 2000 census at least the second time that its use has changed apportionment.12
At the earliest, status imputation was used in the year 1990 census, although there is some dispute as to whether it was even used then. Id., at 45-46, n. 4; but see id., at 223 (stating that "the 1990 imputation procedures continued the prior practice of using household size imputation and occupancy imputation but added status imputation"). Regardless, it apparently had no impact on apportionment. See id., at 45-46, n. 4. In the year 1990 census, the Secretary specifically decided against using a different form of estimation. The "Secretary's administrative decision declining to make an adjustment observed that `[t]he imputation scheme used ... [was] based on a series of assumptions that are mostly guesswork.'" Brief for Federal Petitioners in Wisconsin v. City of New York, O. T. 1995, Nos. 94-1614 etc., p. 8. The Secretary even noted that "large-scale statistical adjustment of the census through [this method] would `abandon a two hundred year tradition of how we actually count people,'" and that "statistical adjustment of the 1990 census might open the door to political tampering in the future." Wisconsin v. City of New York, 517 U. S. 1, 10-12 (1996).
Additionally, hot-deck imputation is properly understood as an estimation, which by definition cannot be an actual counting of persons. The Court contends that imputation does not differ in principle from other traditional methods of counting, such as questioning of "`neighbors, landlords, postal workers, or other proxies'" about the number of inhabitants in a particular place. Ante, at 477. But that point is flawed in several important respects. To begin with, from the first census, such information was taken through an actual inquiry of a family member who was over the age of 16. Act of Mar. 1, 1790, § 6, reprinted in Wright 926. That household member was "obliged to render to such assistant of the division, a true account, if required, to the best of his or her knowledge, of all and every person belonging to such family respectively ... on pain of forfeiting twenty dollars, to be sued for and recovered by such assistant." Ibid. Estimation was not allowed and family members who were caught providing false information were subject to fines.
The Court takes the position that "enumeration" may be incompatible with gross statistical estimates, but concludes that such gross estimates are not at stake here. See ante, at 476. I derive little comfort from the fact that the Court has drawn a constitutional line at "`gross statistical estimates.'" Ibid. The Court neglects to explain the boundaries of such gross estimates, begging the question of how "gross" must "gross" be? The Court nonchalantly comments that the Census Bureau used the method "sparingly," see ante, at 477, and that the "inference involves a tiny percent of the population," ante, at 479. But the consequences are far from trivial. One State's representation in Congress is reduced while another's is fortified. If the use of hot-deck imputation in the next Census shifts the balance of power in "only" two or three seats, will the Court continue to defend the method? Today, we deal with hot-deck imputation. But if history is our guide, surely other statistical methods will be employed in future censuses and there will be similar challenges. By accepting one method of estimation as constitutionally permissible, the Court has opened the door, and we will be continually called to judge whether one form of estimation is more acceptable than another.13
We gave some consideration to a similar question inDepartment of Commerce v. United States House of Representatives, 525 U. S. 316 (1999), when considering a challenge to the Department of Commerce's decision to use statistical sampling in the decennial census for apportionment purposes. There was no need, however, to decide the constitutional question in that case because we held that 13 U. S. C. § 195 "prohibits the use of sampling in calculating the population for purposes of apportionment." 525 U. S., at 340. Both JUSTICE STEVENS and JUSTICE SCALIA, however, weighed in on the matter. See id., at 362-364 (STEVENS, J., dissenting); id., at 346-349 (SCALIA, J., concurring in part).
The "actual Enumeration" was originally to be used both for apportionment of Members of the House of Representatives and for direct taxation. Adoption of the Sixteenth Amendment, however, removed the requirement of apportionment for direct taxes. U. S. Const., Amdt. 16 ("The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration")
The parenthetical reflects the fact that JUSTICE SCALIA was construing a statutory provision so as to avoid serious constitutional doubt. SeeHouse of Representatives, supra, at 346 (opinion concurring in part).
Moreover, while the Court states that the Constitution "uses a general word, `enumeration,' that refers to a counting process without describing the count's methodological details,"ante, at 474, the meaning of "enumeration" has not materially changed since the time of the founding. To "enumerate" is now defined as "to ascertain the number of: COUNT," and also "to specify one after another: LIST." See Webster's Ninth New Collegiate Dictionary 416 (1988). "Enumeration" meant at the time of the founding, as it does now, to count individually and specifically and simply does not admit of various counting methodologies.
By "conjectural rule," we can presume that he meant to refer to the population estimates used by the Constitutional Convention to determine the number of Representatives of Congress from each State prior to the first census. See H. Alterman, Counting People: The Census in History 188 (1969) (hereinafter Alterman)
As describedinfra, at 503-504, Congress has implemented this power in a variety of ways, such as by authorizing marshals to "cause the number of the inhabitants to be taken" and to appoint as many assistants as necessary, establishing the timeframe within which the census is to be completed, and setting methods of payment for assistants. Act of Mar. 1, 1790, § 1, reprinted in C. Wright, History and Growth of the United States Census (prepared for the Senate Committee on the Census), S. Doc. No. 194, 56th Cong., 1st Sess., 925 (1900) (hereinafter Wright). In recent years, the Bureau through its delegated power has adopted a number of measures to reduce error, including "an extensive advertising campaign, a more easily completed census questionnaire, and increased use of automation, which among other things facilitated the development of accurate maps and geographic files for the 1990 census." Wisconsin v. City of New York, 517 U. S. 1, 8 (1996).
This traditional religious objection to census taking was based on the "sin of David, who brought a plague upon Israel by `numbering' the people (2 Sam. 24:1-25, 1 Chron. 21:1-30)." P. Cohen, A Calculating People 256, n. 24 (1982) (hereinafter Cohen). Some colonial governors apparently blamed their inability to administer censuses on this fear, although it is unclear to what extent this actually reflected public sentimentIbid.
The 1753 bill contemplated by the British Parliament received a great deal of publicity and attention. Glass 17. The proposal provided that overseers would "go from house to house in their parishes, recording the numbers of persons actually dwelling in each house during the twelve preceeding hours."Id., at 18.
See also Dept. of Commerce and Labor, A Century of Population Growth: From the First Census of the United States to the Twelfth, 1790-1900, p. 4 (1909) (hereinafter Century) ("The people of Massachusetts and Connecticut manifested considerable opposition to census taking, seeing no advantage in it to themselves, and fearing that in some way the information obtained would be used by the British authorities to their disadvantage")
It was later believed that the disappointment was "largely due to the exaggerated estimates of colonial population." Wright 17. See also Alterman 205 ("Many census historians believe, as Washington hinted ... that the disappointment was due to the exaggerated hopes born of a newly won independence, as well as to the unrealistic estimates of the colonial population")
The Bureau states it "no longer has data available to determine whether count imputation affected apportionment in the 1960 or the 1970 Censuses." App. 224
SeeHouse of Representatives, 525 U. S., at 349 (SCALIA, J., concurring in part) ("The prospect of this Court's reviewing estimation techniques in the future, to determine which of them so obviously creates a distortion that it cannot be allowed, is not a happy one").
For the reasons I set forth in my opinion in Franklin v. Massachusetts, 505 U. S. 788, 823-829 (1992) (concurring in part and concurring in judgment) — and for an additional one brought forth in the briefing and argument of the present case — I disagree with the Court's holding that appellants have standing under Article III of the Constitution to bring this suit.
As the Court acknowledges, in order to establish standing, appellants must show that the federal courts "have the power to redress the injury that the [federal appellees] allegedly caused [them]." Ante, at 459 (internal quotation marks omitted). Yet the Court does not dispute that, even if appellants were to succeed in their challenge and a court were to order the Secretary of Commerce to recalculate the final census, their injury would not be redressed "unless the President accepts the new numbers, changes his calculations accordingly, and issues a new reapportionment statement to Congress ...." Franklin, supra, at 824. That fact is fatal to appellants' standing because appellants have not sued the President to force him to take these steps — and could not successfully do so even if they tried, since "no court has authority to direct the President to take an official act," 505 U. S., at 826. As the Court acknowledged in Franklin, the President enjoys the discretion to refuse to issue a new reapportionment statement to Congress: "[H]e is not ... required to adhere to the policy decisions reflected in the Secretary's report." Id., at 799; see also id., at 800. It displays gross disrespect to the President to assume that he will obediently follow the advice of his subordinates — in this case, a new report by his Secretary, recommending that he alter his prior determination. Id., at 824-825 (SCALIA, J., concurring in part and concurring in judgment). Thus, because appellants' "standing depends on the unfettered choices made by independent actors not before the courts and whose exercise of broad and legitimate discretion the courts cannot presume either to control or to predict," Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 504 U. S. 555, 562 (1992) (internal quotation marks omitted), standing in this case does not exist.
Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment provides that "Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed." Section 5 of the Fourteenth Amendment provides that "[t]he Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article." Pursuant to that authorization, Congress has provided that, once the President transmits to Congress the decennial reapportionment statement that the statute requires, 46 Stat. 26, 2 U. S. C. § 2a(a), "[e]ach State shall be entitled, ... until the taking effect of a reapportionment under this section or subsequent statute, to the number of Representatives shown in [that] statement," § 2a(b). Thus, the law provides only two means by which Utah's entitlement can be altered: "the taking effect of a reapportionment under this section or subsequent statute." Ibid. The first means refers to the next decennial census;1 the second to a new law enacted in the interim. Thus, even if the President wanted to transfer one congressional seat from North Carolina to Utah, he could not do so before 2011 unless Congress enacted a new law authorizing such a reapportionment.
The Court can find no excuse in our precedents for today's holding. It relies on three of our cases in which it says we "found standing in similar circumstances," ante, at 464. They are similar as day and night are similar. Two of them, Federal Election Comm'n v. Akins, 524 U. S. 11 (1998), and Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority v. Citizens for Abatement of Aircraft Noise, Inc., 501 U. S. 252 (1991), are inapposite because redress of the plaintiffs' injuries did not require action by an independent third party that was not (and could not be) brought to answer before a federal court, much less by a third party for whom (as for the President) it would be disrespectful for us to presume a course of action, and much, much less in violation of the explicit text of a statute.2 Although in the third case, Bennett v. Spear, 520 U. S. 154 (1997), we found standing to challenge the action of one agency (Fish and Wildlife Service) despite the fact that redress ultimately depended upon action by another agency (Bureau of Reclamation) not before the Court, we made it quite clear that we came to this conclusion only because in the matter at issue the one agency had the power to coerce action by the other: "[I]t does not suffice," we said, "if the injury complained of is the result of the independent action of some third party not before the court." Id., at 169 (internal quotation marks and brackets omitted). We found that, "while the [Service] theoretically serves an advisory function, in reality it has a powerful coercive effect on the action agency." Ibid. (internal quotation marks and citation omitted). In this case, by contrast, we simply cannot say — both because it is not true and because it displays gross disrespect to do so — that the action of the President is "coerced" by the Secretary. Not to mention, once again, the statute that explicitly leaves this question to Congress.
It cannot be deemed to refer to reapportionment under thenew Presidential statement that appellants seek, because "reapportionment under this section" pursuant to the 2000 census has already occurred. The Presidential statement effecting "reapportionment under this section" must be transmitted "[o]n the first day, or within one week thereafter, of the first regular session" of the first Congress after the census, § 2a(a) — a deadline met by the President's statement under challenge here, but now long since passed.
Moreover, inMetropolitan Washington there was no doubt that, if a court enjoined the challenged action, the injuries it allegedly caused would be redressed automatically by operation of law. See 501 U. S., at 265 (citing 49 U. S. C. App. § 2456(h)).