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2014 HOUSING ELEMENT ADOPTED APRIL - PDF
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1 2014 HOUSING ELEMENT APRIL 2015 ADOPTED APRIL 27, 2015
2 Cover photo courtesy of Flickr
3 Preface The Housing Element is a major part of San Francisco s General Plan that seeks to ensure adequate housing for current and future San Franciscans. Housing element law requires local governments plan for their existing and projected housing need, by providing opportunities for housing development, rather than constraining opportunities. The State allocates the region s share of the statewide housing need to regional agencies; in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) provides this allocation, based on the region s forecast for population, households, and employment. San Francisco s share of the regional housing need for 2015 through 2022 has been pegged at 28,870 new units, with almost 60% to be affordable. Since 2002, the regional population, household and job forecast has been policy-based, meaning that it promotes policy objectives which increase housing development and alternative transportation modes, specifically by increasing the proportion of growth near transit and in existing urban areas. Furthermore, with the adoption of SB375 and its requirement that regional planning agencies create a plan to meet targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction tied to land use, the City can expect to see further development directed towards existing urban areas like San Francisco to increase housing near jobs, reduce urban sprawl, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This Housing Element details objectives and policies that address this growing housing demand, focusing on strategies that can be accomplished within the city s limited land supply and that meet the housing goals developed during the outreach for this document, which include 1) prioritizing permanently affordable housing; 2) recognizing and preserving neighborhood character; 3) integrating housing, jobs, transportation and infrastructure; and 4) continuing to be a regional model of sustainability. The Housing Element consists of two parts. Part I contains the background data and needs analysis, forming the basis for policy formulation. Part II lists objectives and policies and describes the programs to be carried out over the next five years to implement these objectives and policies. 1. Part I describes and analyzes changes in San Francisco population, households, and housing stock characteristics. It analyzes existing and projected housing needs resulting from job growth and population and household projections. It identifies the needs of special user groups such as the homeless, physically disabled, elderly, minorities, families with children, and artists, and specifies the housing affordability levels needed by these households. Part I also contains an inventory of land suitable for residential development and examines potential constraints to meeting the City s housing needs. It notes that meeting the estimated housing need will require a rate of housing production far greater than what has been achieved in previous years. 2. Part II contains a comprehensive set of housing objectives and policies that are the framework for decision-making, priority setting and program implementation. It continues many existing City housing policies that emphasize affordable housing production, permanent affordability, and the protection of the existing housing stock. New policies strive to create a range of new housing to meet spatial needs of all of our residents, particularly those who cannot afford market-rate housing; ensure development is appropriate to the unique needs of individual neighborhood they are located within; use community planning processes to ensure that the best qualities of neighborhoods are not only maintained, but strengthened; link new housing to public infrastructure such as transit, open space and community facilities, and privately provided infrastructure such as retail and neighborhood services; and prioritize housing development that reduces the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.
4 These objectives and policies are followed by related Implementation Actions that will implement the Housing Element including timelines, steps, projected outcomes and entities responsible for each action. They are also followed by a series of Strategies For Further Review, which require further examination and study prior to their implementation. Implementation involves various City agencies, including the Planning Department, the Mayor s Office of Housing, the Office of Community Investment and Infrastructure (formerly known as the Redevelopment Agency), the Board of Supervisors and the Planning Commission, the San Francisco Housing Authority, the Department of Building Inspection, the Department of Human Services, the Department of Public Health, the City Attorney s Office, the Rent Stabilization Board, and the Human Rights Commission; but it also depends on the work of community housing organizations, non-profit and for-profit housing developers, and the community organizations and citizens of San Francisco. Consistency with San Francisco s General Plan The San Francisco General Plan, including this Housing Element, is an integrated, internally consistent and compatible statement of objectives and policies. The other elements of the City s General Plan, as well as the area plans which cover specific geographic areas of the city, are consistent with this Housing Element. San Francisco Charter Section of the Charter of the City and County of San Francisco provides to the Planning Commission the opportunity to periodically recommend Planning Code amendments to the Board of Supervisors. It states: The General Plan shall consist of goals, policies and programs for the future physical development of the City and County that take into consideration social, economic and environmental factors. In developing their recommendations, the Commission shall consult with commissions and elected officials, and shall hold public hearings as part of a comprehensive planning process. The Planning Department, in consultation with other departments and the City Administrator, shall periodically prepare special area, neighborhood and other plans designed to carry out the General Plan, and periodically prepare implementation programs and schedules which link the General Plan to the allocation of local, state and federal resources. This section requires that proposed General Plan amendments are consistent across the General Plan and the eight priority policies of the Planning Code Section As such, the San Francisco General Plan is regularly updated to ensure consistency. Any amendment to the General Plan, including adoption of this Housing Element, is accompanied by a comprehensive review of the General Plan for consistency. Where necessary, Planning staff will recommend conforming amendments to the General Plan, so that the General Plan is aligned across its elements and area plans.
5 HOUSING ELEMENT 2014: PREFACE Section 101.1(b) of the San Francisco Planning Code provides the City s eight Priority Policies, and designates these policies as the basis upon which inconsistencies in the General Plan are resolved, should they occur. Two General Plan Priority Policies relate specifically to housing, and are supported directly by this Housing Element. These are: That the City s supply of affordable housing be preserved and enhanced (See Objectives 1-3, Objectives 7-9, and all related policies under those objectives). That existing housing and neighborhood character be conserved and protected in order to preserve the cultural and economic diversity of our neighborhoods (See Objective 2, Objective 11, and all related policies under those objectives). The other Priority Policies are supported by, and not impacted by, this Housing Element.
6 2014 HOUSING ELEMENT PART I: DATA AND NEEDS ANALYSIS APRIL 2015 ADOPTED APRIL 27, 2015
7 Cover photo courtesy of Flickr
8 Contents Introduction: Data and Needs Analysis 01 I. Population, Employment and Income Trends 03 A. Population and Demographics 04 B. Employment 12 C. Income 15 II. Housing Characteristics 21 A. Existing Housing Stock 22 B. Housing Tenure and Affordability 33 C. Vacancy 36 D. Coastal Zone Housing 38 III. Housing Needs 41 A. Regional Housing Needs Assessment 41 B. Housing Affordability Needs 44 C. Housing Needs of Special Population Groups 49 D. Housing Preservation Needs 58 E. Replacement of Lost Units 59 IV. Meeting Housing Needs 63 A. New Housing Development Potential Under Existing Zoning 64 B. Constraints to Housing Access, Production and Conservation 76 C. Quantified Housing Goals 96 D. Realization of Housing Potential 97
9 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS Tables, Figures, & Maps Table I-1 Population Trends and ABAG Projections, San Francisco, Figure I-1 Population Trends and ABAG Projections, San Francisco, Table I-2 Population Trends and Projections by Age Groups, San Francisco, Figure I-2 Population Trends and Projections by Age Groups, San Francisco, Table I-3 Population Trends by Ethnicity, San Francisco, Figure I-3 Ethnic Composition, San Francisco, Table I-4 Household Growth Trends and Projections, San Francisco, Table I-5 Family and Non-Family Households, San Francisco, 2000 and Table I-6 Changes in Household Size, San Francisco, Table I-7 Household Size by Ethnicity, San Francisco, Map I-1 Average Household Size by Census Tract, San Francisco, Map I-2 Median Room Count by Census Tract, San Francisco, Table I-8 San Francisco Employment Trends and Projections, Table I-9 San Francisco and Bay Area Regional Employment Projections, Table I-10 Employment Trends and Projections by Industry, San Francisco, Table I-11 Employed Residents Trends and Projections, San Francisco, Table I-12 Workers per Household Trends and Projections, San Francisco and Bay Area, Table I-13 Workers Commuting into San Francisco, Table I-14 Household and Family Income, San Francisco, Table I-15 Household and Family Income in Constant Dollars, San Francisco, Table I-16 Household Income by Household Type, Tenure and Ethnicity, San Francisco, Table I-17 Number of Workers in Family, San Francisco, 2000 and Table I-18 Incomes by Ethnicity and Household Type, San Francisco, Table I-19 Average Annual Wage and Employment by Sector, San Francisco, Table I-20 Job Classifications with Most Job Openings, and Median Hourly Wages, Table I-21 Housing Characteristics, San Francisco, 2010 and Table I-22 Housing Stock by Planning District and Structure Size, San Francisco, Map I-3 Housing Stock by Planning Districts, San Francisco, Table I-23 New Housing Construction, Demolitions and Alterations, San Francisco, Table I-24 Comparison of Existing Stock with New Construction by Building Type, San Francisco, Table I-25 Net Change in the Housing Stock by Planning District, Map I-4 Net Change in the Housing Stock by Planning Districts, San Francisco, April 2010 Dec Table I-26 Construction of New Affordable Housing Units, San Francisco, Table I-27 Demolitions by Structure Type, Table I-28 Housing Units Converted to Non-Residential Use, San Francisco, Table I-29 Legalization of Secondary Units, Table I-30 Citywide Inventory of Public Assisted Housing, San Francisco, Table I-31 Residential Hotel Status, San Francisco, Table I-32 Loss of Residential Hotel Rooms, San Francisco, Table I-33 Rate of Homeownership, San Francisco, Table I-34 Housing Affordability of Average Single Family Homes, San Francisco, Figure I-4 Housing Price Trends, San Francisco, ii
10 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT 2014 Figure I-5 Average Monthly Rental Rates, San Francisco, Table I-35 Rental Affordability for Lower Income Households by Planning District, San Francisco, Table I-36 Vacancy Rates by Vacancy Status, Figure I-6 Rental Vacancy Rates, San Francisco, Figure I-7 Homeowner Vacancy Rates, San Francisco, Table I-37 New Construction, Alteration and Demolition Activity in Coastal Area, San Francisco, Map I-5 Coastal Zone Area, San Francisco, Table I-38 Regional Housing Needs Assessment for San Francisco, 2015 June Table I-39 Household Income Standards by Household Size, Table I-40 Income Distribution, San Francisco, Table I-41 Affordable Housing Guidelines, San Francisco, Table I-42 Percentage of Very Low Income Households Overpaying Housing Costs, San Francisco, 2000 and Table I-43 Overcrowded Households by Tenure, San Francisco, Table I-44 Overcrowded Households by Household Ethnicity, San Francisco, Table I-45 Department of Housing & Community Development-Entities Qualified to Manage Assisted Units, Table I-46 Expiration of Project Based Section 8 Contracts, San Francisco, Table I-47 Permanent Housing Needs of Special Population Groups, San Francisco, Table I-48 Estimated Homeless Population, San Francisco, Table I-49 Elderly Households and Housing Burden, San Francisco, Table I-50 Household Size and Housing Unit Sizes, San Francisco, Table I-51 Large Households and Housing Burden, San Francisco, Table I-52 Characteristics of Female Headed Households, San Francisco, 2010 and Table I-53 Estimated Replacement Housing Needs, San Francisco, 2015 June Table I-54 Legalization of Secondary Units, San Francisco, Table I-55 Evictions from Ellis Act and Owner Move-Ins, San Francisco, Table I-56 Estimated New Housing Construction Potential by Generalized Zoning Districts, San Francisco, Table I-57 Estimated New Housing Construction Potential by Zoning District, San Francisco, Map I-6 Generalized Permitted Housing Densities Allowed by Zoning District, San Francisco, Table I-58 Generalized Existing Housing Densities by Zoning Districts, San Francisco, Table I-59 Average Price per Square Foot of Vacant Lands Sold, San Francisco, Table I-60 Estimated Multi-Family Housing Development Costs Per Unit, San Francisco, Table I-61 Fees for Various Development Permits by Construction Costs, San Francisco, Table I-62 Average Development Impact Fees for a 1,000 sq. ft. Housing Unit, San Francisco, Table I-63 Federal, State and Local Funding for Housing Programs, San Francisco, Table I-64 Annual Production Targets and Average Annual Housing Production, San Francisco, 2007 Q Table I-65 RHNA Housing Production Targets, San Francisco, Table I-66 New Housing Construction Pipeline, San Francisco, Q Table I-67 Estimated New Housing Construction Potential with Proposed Rezoning of Select Neighborhoods, Table I-68 Estimated Capital Subsidies Required to Meet Production Goals, San Francisco, 2015 June Table I-69 Summary of Housing Potential in City-Owned Lands 103 iii
12 Introduction: Data and Needs Analysis San Francisco remains a highly desirable place to live and its housing market has a seemingly infinite demand. Housing costs in San Francisco, for both renters and owners, are second only to those of New York City. The continuing high cost of housing in San Francisco amplifies the need for providing affordable housing to all household income levels, especially low and very low income levels. The provision of adequate affordable housing remains a significant challenge for San Francisco. This first part of the Housing Element contains a description and analysis of San Francisco s population and employment trends; existing housing characteristics; overall housing need, including special needs groups; and capacity for new housing based on land supply and site opportunities in compliance with Section 65583(a) of the state Housing Element law. Information is presented on trends since the 2009 Housing Element was published and on expected development for the next five to 10 years, at which time the Housing Element will be updated again. An evaluation of the 2009 Housing Element is included in this document as an appendix. Primary data sources include the Census Bureau and California State Department of Finance for existing conditions, projections published by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), and independent analysis by the Planning Department. 1 The data used are the most reliable available for assessing existing conditions. These standard sources provide a basis for consistent comparison with older data and form the basis for the best possible forecasts. The data provide a general picture of economic trends and therefore do not necessarily reflect particular trends or cycles in the housing market and the wider economy. 1 San Francisco relies on information provided by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). ABAG projections are the official projections of growth for the Bay Area and are used by numerous local governing agencies to identify potential needs and problems, both locally and regionally. The California State Housing and Community Development Department also uses these figures for determining housing needs for the state. ABAG projects the number of jobs for each county in the Bay Area 20 to 25 years into the future. The assumptions that ABAG used in Projections 2013 are based on demographic and economic data. The demographic assumptions take into account fertility, births, deaths, migration, household sizes, and labor force participation rates. Economic assumptions include exports, the rate of GDP growth, energy prices, productivity, and interest rates. I.1
13 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS I.2
14 I. Population, Employment and Income Trends San Francisco continues to grow and has surpassed its population peak of the 1950s; by 2012, some 808,000 people called San Francisco home. A slight shift in the city s racial composition was noted in the U.S. Census Bureau s 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) estimate but San Francisco continues to be a culturally and racially diverse place. San Francisco households are generally better off and median incomes are rising; the 2012 ACS estimated San Francisco s median income at about $73,802. San Francisco is also growing older. The median age of San Francisco residents has been rising since 2000, especially as the baby boom generation ages. In 2012, the estimated median age was 38.5 years. Families with children constitute a small portion of San Francisco households. Under 12% of the city s total population is 14 years old and younger, giving San Francisco the distinction of having the fewest children per capita of all major U.S. cities. I.3
15 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS A. Population and Demographics 1. Population Change San Francisco has seen an increase in population and jobs in recent years. The 2010 Census counted over 805,235 San Franciscans while the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) estimated some 568,720 jobs in the city. The 2012 American Community Survey estimated San Francisco s population to be about 807,755. ABAG projects continued population growth to 981,800 by 2030 or an overall increase of about 174,045 people who will need to be housed over the next 18 years (Table I-1 and Figure I-1). Household growth, an approximation of the demand for housing, indicates a need for some 72,530 new units in the 18 years to 2030 just to accommodate projected population and household growth (Table I-1) * 2030* 2040* Total Population 776, , , ,800 1,085,700 Population Change 52,774 28,502 85,165 91, ,900 % Population Change 7.3% 3.7% 10.6% 10.3% 10.6% Household Population 756, , , ,500 1,051,100 % HH Population Change 8.2% 3.2% 10.6% 10.3% 10.4% Households 329, , , , ,350 Households Change 24,116 16,111 33,789 33,770 33,980 % Households Change 7.9% 4.9% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2% Table I-1 Population Trends and ABAG Projections, San Francisco, SOURCES: Census Bureau, ABAG, Projections ,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, , ,800 1,085,700 Figure I-1 Population Trends and ABAG Projections, San Francisco, , , , , , , , , , * 2030 * 2040 * SOURCES: Census Bureau, ABAG Projections 2013 I.4
16 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT Age San Francisco s population, in line with national trends, is getting older as the baby boom generation ages. San Francisco also has the distinction of having the fewest number of children per capita of all major American cities. Table I-2 and Figure 1-2 show recent population trends and projections by age group. The median age for San Francisco was estimated to be 38.5 years old in 2012, an increase from 37.6 in ABAG s Projections 2013 calculated the median age to increase steadily, reaching 40.9 years in In 2010, San Franciscans 14 years and younger constituted about only 11% of the city s population, slightly decreasing from The number of young San Franciscans, however, is expected to increase by 56% to 140,600 in 2020 and make up 15.8% of the total population. Their numbers will taper off the following decades and eventually return to a smaller proportion of the population by From 2000 to 2010, the age group grew approximately 15%, the highest growth rate of any group in the population for that period. San Franciscans 45 years and older are also forecast to increase, making up 22.8% of the population by 2020 and 18.1% by The city s older residents those 60 years and older will grow the most over the coming years, accounting for 33.2% of the total population by Table I-2 Population Trends and Projections by Age Groups, San Francisco, Age Group * 2030* 2040* 0 to 14 94,010 89, , , , to 24 89,388 95,224 67, , , to , , , , , to , , , , , , , , , ,800 Total 776, , , ,800 1,085,700 Median Age SOURCES: Census Bureau; ABAG, Projections 2013 I.5
17 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS 100% 60 and over 90% 80% 19.0% 17.6% 17.7% 22.3% 30.3% 45 to to to 24 70% 14.6% 18.4% 18.6% 0 to 14 60% 22.2% 15.9% 50% 40% 39.8% 40.5% 31.6% 21.9% 27.3% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13.0% 11.5% 9.2% 14.5% 12.4% 13.4% 12.1% 22.8% 19.1% 14.1% Figure I-2 Population Trends and Projections by Age Groups, San Francisco, SOURCES: Census Bureau; ABAG, Projections Ethnic Composition San Francisco s population is ethnically diverse (Table 1-3 and Figure I-3) despite a slight shift since the 2010 Census. Since 2010, the percentage of San Franciscans claiming white racial affiliation increased, totaling nearly 51% of the city s population according to the 2012 American Community Survey (ACS). San Francisco s African-American population continues to decline, dropping from 6.1% in 2010 to 6% in San Franciscans of Chinese origin declined from 21.4% of the total population in 2010 to 21.2% by The proportion of San Franciscans identifying with Hispanic origins (of any race) has increased from 14.1% in 2010 to 15.1% in Household size and household incomes by ethnicity point to varied housing needs and abilities to pay for housing and will be discussed in later sections of this report. Race White 53.6% 49.7% 48.5% 50.7% Black 10.9% 7.8% 6.1% 6.0% American Indian 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% Japanese 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% Chinese 18.1% 19.6% 21.4% 21.2% Filipino 5.7% 5.2% 4.5% 4.6% Other Non-White 9.7% 15.8% 17.8% 15.7% TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Hispanic Origin 13.3% 14.1% 14.1% 15.1% Table I-3 Population Trends by Ethnicity, San Francisco, SOURCE: Census Bureau I.6
18 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT 2014 Figure I-3 Ethnic Composition, San Francisco, 2012 Other Non-White 15.8% White 50.7% Filipino 4.6% Chinese 21.2% Black 6.0% Japanese 1.4% American Indian 0.5% SOURCE: Census Bureau As in most urban centers, there are concentrations of major ethnic groups in San Francisco neighborhoods. Many Latino households live in the Mission District, extending along Mission Street south to the Daly City border. A distinct Filipino community follows a similar residential pattern, with additional concentrations in the Excelsior area and, to a smaller degree, South of Market. Concentrations of several East Asian populations reside in the Richmond and Sunset Districts, in addition to a traditional presence in Chinatown. Residential concentrations of African Americans occur in the Western Addition, South Bayshore, and Ingleside Districts. Southeast Asian communities have a strong presence in the Tenderloin District north of Market Street and in neighborhoods throughout the Bayview and Visitacion Valley areas. 4. Household Characteristics According to the 2010 Census, the number of San Francisco households grew from 329,700 in 2000 to 345,811, an increase of over 16,111 new households or about 5% growth (Table I-4). ABAG s Projections 2013 estimates that the number of total households will continue to increase, growing to 379,600 by 2020 and to 413,370 by 2040 or an annual average of about 1,700 new San Francisco households over 20 years. Table I-4 Household Growth Trends and Projections, San Francisco, * 2030 * 2040 * Number of Households 329, , , , ,350 Growth 24,116 16,111 33,789 33,770 33,980 Average Annual Growth 2,412 1,611 3,379 3,377 3,398 Percent Change 7.9% 4.9% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2% Average Household Size Average Household Size (Bay Area) SOURCES: Census Bureau; * ABAG, Projections 2013 I.7
19 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS As shown in Table I-4, the average household size in San Francisco has been relatively constant, hovering at 2.3 persons and tending to be smaller than the Bay Area average. ABAG also projects that the number of persons per Bay Area household will be increasing in the next 20 years. San Francisco continues to have a comparatively small number of family households and this proportion is holding steady. According to the 2010 Census, family households comprised just 43.7% of all households in San Francisco (Table I-5), compared to over 44% in This decline does not necessarily indicate that families are leaving, as there were over 5,800 more family households in 2010; rather it indicates that non-family households are increasing at a much more rapid rate. The Census Bureau s definition of a family household counting only those households with people related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption - also obscures the actual diversity of San Francisco s families and households. At the time of the American Community Survey in 2012, the estimated proportion of Census-defined family households in San Francisco remained steady about 45%. This is considerably less than the percentage for the entire Bay Area, where around 65% of all households are family households. Average family households are also likely to be larger than non-family households. The 2012 American Community Survey estimates these numbers to be 3.2 persons and 2.31 persons, respectively. Household Characteristic All Households 329, ,811 Family Households 145, ,029 As Percent of All Households 44.0% 43.7% Bay Area Family Households as Percentage of All Households 64.7% 64.8% Table I-5 Family and Non-Family Households, San Francisco, 2000 and 2010 SOURCES: Census Bureau; ABAG In 2010, about 70% of all households in the city were comprised of one or two people and household sizes are expected to remain proportionally about the same as the previous decades (Table I-6). The recent ACS estimate shows that the proportion of one- and two-person households has grown slightly. In 2012, they both increased by a little less than 1%, compared to all other household types that either increased insignificantly or decreased slightly. The expected growth in households and the composition of these new households present specific housing needs. I.8
20 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT 2014 Table I-6 Changes in Household Size, San Francisco, Household Size No. % of Total No. % of Total No. % of Total 1 123, % 127, % 133, % 2 90, % 101, % 108, % 3 36, % 41, % 45, % 4 23, % 28, % 30, % 5 12, % 14, % 12, % 6+ 12, % 16, % 14, % TOTAL 298, % 329, % 345, % SOURCE: Census Bureau Average household size varies by ethnicity. Table I-7 below shows that households falling under the Other Race and the Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander categories tend to be larger, averaging 3.38 and 3.33 people per household, respectively. Hispanic or Latino households are similarly larger than the citywide average, with 2.94 people per household. There are, on average, 2.75 people in an Asian household, while the Black household average size is generally close to the citywide average. White households are smallest in size, averaging less than two persons per household. Table I-7 Household Size by Ethnicity, San Francisco, 2010 Household Average Household Size No. of Households White ,332 Black ,469 American Indian/Alaska Native ,469 Asian ,378 Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Other Race ,930 Two or More Race ,317 Hispanic / Latino ,332 All Households ,811 SOURCE: Census Bureau Household size in San Francisco tends to reflect existing neighborhood housing stock (see Maps I-1 and I-2). Larger households of four or more persons are generally found in the southeastern neighborhoods of the Mission, Bayview, Visitacion Valley, and the Excelsior where typical housing units have two or more bedrooms. Somewhat smaller households however are found in the western neighborhoods. The central and northeastern portions of the city generally have the smallest households two or less than two persons with the residential population tapering off near the commercial and industrial areas of the Financial District and South of Market. I.9
21 Y PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS Draft 2014 Housing Element San Francisco General Plan I S A N F R Presidio Marina Northeast A N C I S C Downtown 80 O B A Western Addition Richmond South of Market Golden Gate Park Buena Vista Mission 280 Outer Sunset 101 Inner Sunset Central P A C I F I C O C E A N Ingleside 280 South Central Bernal Heights 101 South Bayshore Average Household Size by Census Tract San Francisco, Miles MAP or less Over 3.01 SAN FRANCISCO PLANNING DEPARTMENT SOURCE: Census Bureau Source: Census Bureau I.10
22 Y Draft DRAFT 2014 PROPOSED Housing FOR Element ADOPTION San HOUSING Francisco ELEMENT General Plan 2014 I S A N F R Presidio Marina Northeast A N C I S C Downtown 80 O B A Western Addition Richmond South of Market Golden Gate Park Buena Vista Mission 280 Outer Sunset 101 Inner Sunset Central P A C I F I C O C E A N Ingleside 280 South Central Bernal Heights 101 South Bayshore Median Room Count by Census Tract San Francisco, Miles MAP or less Over 5.01 SAN FRANCISCO PLANNING DEPARTMENT Source: Census Bureau American Community SOURCE: Survey Census Bureau I.11
23 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS B. Employment 1. Jobs Employment growth in San Francisco and the region directly affects the demand for housing as new jobs attract new residents. As shown in Table I-8, total employment in San Francisco is recovering from the economic crisis of the late 2000s. The crash of dot-com ventures and the 2008 great recession show a net job loss in the years between 2000 and 2010 of approximately 65,700 (see Table I-8). ABAG forecasts a recovery in San Francisco, with employment steadily increasing to 759,000 by During the 2020 to 2030 period, the ABAG model shows 36,440 new jobs (5.4% increase) in San Francisco; from , 51,830 additional jobs are projected a 7.3% gain. Year Total No. of Jobs Growth (Loss) % Change ,430 55, % ,720 (65,710) -10.4% 2020 * 671, , % 2030 * 707,670 36, % 2040 * 759,500 51, % Table I-8 San Francisco Employment Trends and Projections, SOURCES: Census Bureau; * ABAG, Projections 2013 From 2020 through 2040, the entire nine-county Bay Area is expected to add almost 518,080 jobs. Of that total, about 88,270 will be created in San Francisco and the city s share of regional employment will remain at about 17% (Table I-9). Maintaining this job share ensures San Francisco s continuing role as an employment hub, making full use of existing infrastructure. Future targeted infrastructure enhancements to core job centers such as San Francisco will support overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the region. Year San Francisco Bay Area Total San Francisco as % of Bay Area ,430 3,753, % ,720 3,385, % 2020 * 671,230 3,987, % 2030 * 707,670 4,196, % 2040 * 759,500 4,505, % Table I-9 San Francisco and Bay Area Regional Employment Projections, SOURCE: ABAG, Projections 2013 I.12
24 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT 2014 Table I-10 Employment Trends and Projections by Industry, San Francisco, Job growth in the next 20 years is expected to be strongest in the Professional and Managerial Services industry (53,830 new jobs), followed by the Health and Educational Services category (23,800), and the Arts, Recreation, and Other Services segment (25,460) (see Table I-10). In terms of percentage growth for the period, Health and Educational Services (25.7%) and Professional and Managerial Services (25%) industries lead the way. Almost all sectors of the local economy will have experienced net employment gains between the decennial censuses. Only the Transportation and Utilities (2,050 less jobs) sector will see job loss. By 2020, Professional and Managerial Services will have experienced the largest gain some 35,840 or 25% of this sector s jobs. Arts, Recreation, and Other Services employment will have gained some 18,270 jobs during that time a gain of 19% Industry * 2030* 2040* Change % Change Agriculture & Natural Resources (70) -16.7% Construction 14,860 22,030 23,530 25,620 10, % Manufacturing & Wholesale 21,960 23,230 20,980 19,210 (2,750) -12.5% Retail 44,970 49,030 49,470 50,700 5, % Transportation & Utilities 12,030 9,980 9,680 9,150 (2,880) -23.9% Information 20,800 26,520 27,020 28,060 7, % Financial & Leasing (F I R E) 54,660 70,310 71,160 73,590 18, % Professional & Managerial Services 129, , , ,060 77, % Health & Educational Services 64,660 79,590 88, ,020 35, % Arts, Recreation & Other Services 106, , , ,650 35, % Government 98,170 99, , ,090 5, % TOTAL 568, , , , , % SOURCE: ABAG, Projections Employed Residents and Commuters The number of employed residents in San Francisco is project to increase (Table I-11) A total of 480,800 employed residents is projected by 2015 and ABAG s Projections 2013 also indicate that this trend will continue over the 20 years with the addition of over 83,600 employed residents between 2020 and I.13
25 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS Year Employed Residents No. of Change % Change ,300 73, % ,800 19, % ,600 20, % ,600 35, % ,400 27, % ,000 62, % ,200 21, % Table I-11 Employed Residents Trends and Projections, San Francisco, SOURCE: ABAG, Projections 2013 The number of workers per household is also projected to increase between 2010 and 2015, from 1.22 to 1.27 (Table I-12). This number is expected to remain fairly constant until 2040 when it will increase to 1.28 workers per household. The Bay Area region will follow a similar trend with a slightly higher number of workers per household. Area * 2020* 2025* 2030* 2035* 2040* San Francisco Bay Area Region Table I-12 Workers per Household Trends and Projections, San Francisco and Bay Area, SOURCE: Planning Department based on ABAG Projections 2013 As of 2010, commuters into San Francisco held 27.3% of the jobs in the city (Table I-13). According to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission s Plan Bay Area, which includes the region s Sustainable Communities Strategy and 2040 Regional Transportation Plan, over half of these workers commute into the city via the Bay Bridge corridor. By 2020, it is estimated that commuters will take up 43% of jobs in San Francisco. As a regional job center, San Francisco will continue to have a larger share of commuters than other cities in the Bay Area. The regional transportation goal in the next ten years is to reduce commuting with a smaller share of new jobs created in San Francisco being taken by non-san Francisco residents. Table 1-13, however, is not a job forecast nor does it show distribution of jobs throughout the area. Rather, it assumes that more of the future jobs in San Francisco are expected to be taken by San Francisco residents than has occurred in the past. Category * 2030* 2040* Commuters 162, , , ,862 San Francisco Residents 433, , , ,968 TOTAL JOBS 596, , , ,830 % of Commuters 27.3% 42.8% 40.4% 41.9% Increase 8,829 66,171 34,190 55,340 Change in Commuters -6, ,167-2,042 33,282 Regional Goal of Percent Change of Commuters -71.3% 183.1% -6.0% 60.1% Table I-13 Workers Commuting into San Francisco, SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Commission (Note: Travel simulation results generated for the Plan Bay Area, SCS and Regional Transportation Plan) I.14
26 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT 2014 c. Incomes 1. Median Incomes The 2010 Census noted San Francisco s median household income at $71,304. This represents an increase of about 29% in the 10 years between Census counts (Table I-14). Table I-14 also shows that median and mean family incomes tend to be higher than that of non-family households. The 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates the median household income at just under $73,802 or about a 3.5% increase in the last twelve years. Table I-15, however, shows these same incomes adjusted for inflation, where median household and median family household incomes have decreased slightly, and median non-family household incomes have decreased by almost 29%. Table I-14 Household and Family Income, San Francisco, ACS Median Household Income $55,221 $71,304 $73,802 Mean Household Income $102,267 $107,520 Median Family Household Income $63,545 $85,778 $88,565 Mean Family Household Income $122,087 $128,144 Median Non-Family Household Income $46,457 $58,139 $60,285 Mean Non-Family Household Income $83,647 $87,991 SOURCE: Census Bureau Table I-15 Household and Family Income in Constant Dollars, San Francisco, Income Category 2000 (2010 Dollars) 2010 (2010 Income) 2012 (2010 Dollars) Median Household Income $69,926 $71,304 $70,093 Median Family Income $80,467 $85,778 $84,114 Median Non-Family Household Income $58,828 $58,139 $41,242 Per Capita Income $45,229 $45,478 $44,898 SOURCE: Census Bureau Table I-16 below shows household incomes by household type, tenure and ethnicity. In addition to the difference between median family income and median non-family income, disparities exist between home-owning households and renters, and amongst ethnic groups. This array of income, as well as household type, affects housing demand and affordability. For example, the median household income is not enough to afford the average 2012 rent for a two-bedroom apartment at $1,799 a month. And while the median family income is somewhat higher than that of a non-family household, it is spread among more people in the household and would have to pay for larger housing to accommodate the larger average family household size. There is thus a need for larger units affordable to families and large households in San Francisco and an ongoing need for affordable housing for the population in general. I.15
27 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS Characteristic HOUSEHOLD TYPE Median Income % of San Francisco Median Household Income ($71,304) Family Household $85, % Non-Family Household $58, % TENURE Owner Occupied Households Median Income $106, % Renter Occupied Households Median Income $53, % ETHNICITY White $83, % African American $30, % American Indian/Alaska Native $51, % Asian $60, % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander $57, % Other Race $52, % Two or More Race $66, % Hispanic or Latino $55, % Table I-16 Household Income by Household Type, Tenure and Ethnicity, San Francisco, 2010 * People who identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino may also identify themselves as a particular race.. SOURCE: Census Bureau 2. Employed Residents, Household Workers and Income Generally, the overall number of employed persons in a city is probably not correlated with income. Rather, income levels relate more directly to general economic characteristics of an area, fluctuations in wages earned, inflation, and most directly, job mix. However, data suggest that some family incomes may rise as a result of increased employment. It is reasonable to expect that as employment increases, families would benefit from increased employment, thus increasing family income. This is evidenced in the higher median family income presented in Table I-15 above. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of families with no workers increased from 12.8% to 13.2% (Table I-17). Additionally, this table shows that the number of families with two or more workers decreased by about 2%, implying that those families earned less. However, one cannot be sure because, for instance, a family may have lost two jobs and replaced it with one higher-paying position. Workers ,798 19, ,729 42, ,659 87,792 Table I-17 Number of Workers in Family, San Francisco, 2000 and 2010 SOURCE: Census Bureau I.16
28 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT Income Disparities Table I-18 Incomes by Ethnicity and Household Type, San Francisco, 2010 Income disparity is even more significant when households median incomes are compared by ethnicity. Table I-18 shows that across all types of households and per capita measures, white households have significantly higher earnings than other ethnicities. Only White households earn more than the 2010 Census citywide averages. African American households median income of $30,840 is 43% of the city s median income, while White households median income is $83,796 or 118% of the city s median income. Two or More Race households have a median income that is 93% of the city s overall median income, followed by Asian and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander households whose median incomes are about 85% and 81% of San Francisco s median income respectively. Median income of Hispanic or Latino households was pegged at $55,985 or about 79% of the citywide median. Ethnicity Median Household Income Median Family Income Median Non-Family Income Average Family Size Per Capita Income White $83,796 $113,462 $68, $60,269 African American $30,840 $42,108 $23, $25,325 American Indian / Alaska Native $51,087 $59,350 $26, $28,325 Asian $60,648 $70,360 $42, $31,449 Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander $57,560 $55,069 $58, $20,031 Other Race $52,599 $53,750 $41, $23,554 Two or More Races $66,473 $82,723 $54, $29,956 Hispanic or Latino $55,985 $56,370 $49, $26,042 Citywide $71,304 $85,778 $58, $45,478 SOURCE: Census Bureau As noted earlier, ethnic households tend to be larger than the city s overall average household size (Table I-7). Thus a look at per capita income provides a starker reality of income disparity. The 2010 Census shows that per capita income of San Franciscan of Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander heritage is equivalent to only 44% of the city s overall, but for White San Franciscans, it is 133%. And while Asian households earn on average about 85% of the city s median income, per capita income of San Franciscans of Asian decent is $31,449 or 69%. I.17
29 PART 1: DATA NEEDS & ANALYSIS 4. Employment Trends and Income The housing needs of San Francisco are based on providing housing to support the city s workforce, which includes both San Francisco residents and commuters. While San Francisco serves as a regional center for employment, a substantial portion of its workforce lives within the city boundaries. San Francisco s share of the regional housing needs assessment reflect the continuing need to provide housing for its workforce. The average income for the San Francisco workforce demonstrates the lack of housing affordable to many San Francisco workers, both residents and commuters. Table I-19 below shows the average wage by sector and total jobs in each sector. The office sector was by far the largest employer with 231,908 jobs. The retail and industrial sectors had 106,305 and 75,637 jobs respectively. The cultural/institutional sector also had a large number of jobs with 132,851 employees as of With an average rent of $1,799 a month for a two-bedroom apartment in 2012, a household must have an annual income of at least $74,150 to afford such a unit. Industry Average Annual Wages 2012 Average Employment 2012 TOTAL PRIVATE INDUSTRY $83, ,107 Goods Producing $80,340 24,140 Natural Resources and Mining $66, Construction $79,820 14,711 Manufacturing $81,380 9,243 Service Producing $84, ,967 Trade, Transportation and Utilities $60,476 65,656 Information $123,968 23,540 Financial Activities $170,404 51,403 Professional and Business Services $115, ,244 Education and Health Services $56,472 60,082 Leisure and Hospitality $33,748 83,473 Other Services $29,536 41,833 TOTAL GOVERNMENT $76,648 41,987 Table I-19 Average Annual Wage and Employment by Sector, San Francisco, 2012 SOURCE: California Employment Development Division Because each sector in Table I-19 contains a variety of occupations, it is useful to call out the fastest growing categories of jobs in San Francisco, as shown in Table I-20. Of these, only three job classifications Lawyers, General and Operations Managers, and Computer Software Engineers and Developers, Registered Nurses, Management and Market Research Analysts, Marketing Specialists and Accountants and Auditors have estimated annual wages around or above the $74,150 required to afford asking rents of an average two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco. I.18
30 DRAFT PROPOSED FOR ADOPTION HOUSING ELEMENT 2014 Occupational Title Job Openings Mean Hourly Wage, 2012 Estimated Annual Wage* 2012 Waiters and Waitresses 14,840 $10.58 $22,006 Cashiers 13,470 $11.87 $24,690 Retail Salespersons 13,120 $11.58 $24,086 Personal Care Aides 8,170 $12.11 $25,189 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 7,090 $12.64 $26,291 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 6,860 $10.83 $22,526 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop 6,340 $10.42 $21,674 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 6,240 $39.36 $81,869 Software Developers, Applications 6,140 $52.64 $109,491 Accountants and Auditors 6,070 $37.67 $78,362 Registered Nurses 5,990 $54.23 $112,798 Customer Service Representatives 5,510 $20.15 $41,912 Office Clerks, General 5,470 $17.67 $36,754 Software Developers, Systems Software 5,130 $56.28 $117,062 General and Operations Managers 4,980 $65.00 $135,200 Food Preparation Workers 4,950 $10.64 $22,131 Management Analysts 4,410 $46.24 $96,179 Dishwashers 4,390 $10.44 $21,715 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 4,370 $30.01 $62,421 Cooks, Restaurant 4,230 $13.67 $28,434 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 4,120 $13.77 $28,642 Lawyers 4,080 $79.36 $165,069 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 3,770 $15.65 $32,552 Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants 3,640 $29.21 $60,757 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 3,600 $20.08 $41,766 Table I-20 Job Classifications with Most Job Openings and Mean Hourly Wages, 2012 * Assumes 40-hour work week, 52-week year. SOURCE: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Employment Statistics Survey Much of the growth forecast to occur in the coming years will be in low- to medium-skilled jobs such as waitpersons, retail salespersons, personal care aids, janitors and cleaners, and food preparation workers, with approximate annual pay scales ranging from $22,006 to $26,291 (Table I-20). Some of this growth may be absorbed by San Francisco residents through the First Source Hiring Program. However, this is a limited program since it only applies to city contracts and commercial development that is over 25,000 square feet. 1 1 San Francisco s First Source Hiring Program (Chapter 83 of the Administrative Code) was created to foster construction and permanent employment opportunities for qualified economically disadvantaged individuals. Participation in this program is required in City contracts and City property contracts. Between 2006 and 2011, the First Source Hiring Program has employed at least 1,310 people. These numbers represent minimums, because not all hires are recorded. I.19