Source: http://dedocz.com/doc/309010/hohenheimer-diskussionsbeitr%C3%A4ge-wie-der-monetarismus
Timestamp: 2016-10-23 22:21:22
Document Index: 100530617

Matched Legal Cases: ['OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH', 'OGH']

HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus
Hochschule Neubrandenburg Wie reagiert ein Land auf denSeele and Geistpdf4 782 KB
Wie hilfreich ist Diversity Management? Die - beim isw LinzBildungpdf661 KB
Düsseldorf - Kreditrechtsexperten pdf307 KB
3.40 MBAutomobilpdf3 480 KB
Was Daphne dem Menschen voraus hat Gesperrt bis 3 - IMPAutomobilpdf247 KB
Information pdf416 KB
HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der MonetarismusEinbettenintegration code for your site or blogWidth: (Auto)
DISKUSSIONSBEITR&Auml;GE
Wie der Monetarismus nach Deutschland kam
Zum Paradigmenwechsel der Geldpolitik
in den fr&uuml;hen 1970er Jahren
Nr. 258/2005
Institut f&uuml;r Volkswirtschaftslehre (520)
Universit&auml;t Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart
ISSN 0930-8334
'LVNXVVLRQVEHLWUlJHDXVGHP9RONVZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHQ,QVWLWXWGHU8QLYHUVLWlW+RKHQKHLP1U
:,('(5021(7$5,60861$&amp;+'(876&amp;+/$1'.$0
=XP3DUDGLJPHQZHFKVHOGHU*HOGSROLWLNLQGHQIUKHQHU-DKUHQ
%HLWUDJ]XU7DJXQJGHV'RJPHQKLVWRULVFKHQ$XVVFKXVVHV
GHV9HUHLQVIU6RFLDOSROLWLN
%HUOLQ0DL
+HLQ]3HWHU6SDKQ8QLYHUVLWlW6WXWWJDUW+RKHQKHLP
7KHSDSHUUHYLHZV WKH FRQWURYHUV\ EHWZHHQ 3RVWNH\QHVLDQV DQG 0RQHWDULVWV VLQFH WKH V XS WR
WKHFKDQJHLQWKHVWUDWHJ\RIPRQHWDU\SROLF\PDNLQJLQ*HUPDQ\IDYRXULQJPRQHWDU\WDUJHWLQJDIWHU
,WLVDUJXHGWKDWERWKLVVXHVWKHGHEDWHDQGWKHSROLF\GHFLVLRQZHUHUHODWHGE\OHVVVWURQJWLHV
WKDQXVXDOO\DVVXPHGLQWKHKLVWRU\RIHFRQRPLFWKRXJKWDVZHOODVLQWKHKLVWRU\RIHFRQRPLFSROLF\
FRQFHSWV 7KH VORJDQ PRQH\ GRHV QRW PDWWHU PLUURUHG WKH DEXQGDQFH RI GROODUV LQ WKH %UHWWRQ
:RRGV6\VWHP7KHWRSLFRI.H\QHVLDQSROLF\PDNHUVH[SORLWLQJWKH3KLOOLSVFXUYHLV VKRZQ WR E\ D
PRQHWDULVW P\WK DW OHDVW LQ *HUPDQ\ 7KH %XQGHVEDQN WRRN DGYDQWDJH RI WKH PRQHWDULVW FDOO IRU
PRQH\ VXSSO\ FRQWURO LW KHOSHG WR FRPH RII WKH XQORYHG IL[HG H[FKDQJH UDWH V\VWHP UHVWRUHG VX
SUHPDF\ RI WKH %DQN LQ ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV DQG VWUHQJWKHQHG LWV LQGHSHQGHQFH IURP SROLWLFDO VXSHUYL
*OLHGHUXQJ
(LQOHLWXQJ
(LQH1DFKOHVH]XU.H\QHVLDQLVPXV0RQHWDULVPXV.RQWURYHUVH $EKlQJLJNHLWGHV1RPLQDOHLQNRPPHQVYRQGHU*HOGPHQJH 7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXVGHUUHODWLYHQ3UHLVH
6WDELOLWlWGHVSULYDWHQ6HNWRUV ,UUHOHYDQ]DOORNDWLYHU'HWDLOVIUGLH(QWZLFNOXQJYRQ0DNURDJJUHJDWHQ
,UUHOHYDQ]YRQ(LQ]HOSUHLVHQIUGLH(QWZLFNOXQJGHV3UHLVQLYHDXV 3UlIHUHQ]IUNOHLQHKRFKDJJUHJLHUWH0RGHOOH
9HUZHQGXQJGHU*HOGEDVLVDOV,QGLNDWRUGHU*HOGSROLWLN 9HUZHQGXQJGHU*HOGPHQJHDOV=ZLVFKHQ]LHOGHU*HOGSROLWLN
9HUIROJXQJHLQHU:DFKVWXPVUHJHOIUGLH*HOGPHQJH $EOHKQXQJHLQHV3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ7UDGHRII
+|KHUHV*HZLFKWIU3UHLVVWDELOLWlWDOVIU9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJ
$EQHLJXQJJHJHQ6WDDWVLQWHUYHQWLRQLVPXV 'LH5FNJHZLQQXQJGHU:lKUXQJVKRKHLWGHU%XQGHVEDQN =XUVWDELOLWlWVSROLWLVFKHQ9RUJHVFKLFKWH 'LHOLTXLGLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKH3RVLWLRQLQ7KHRULHXQG3UD[LVGHU*HOGSROLWLN 'LH*UQGHIUGLHVWUDWHJLVFKH:HQGH 'HUSUDJPDWLVFKH0RQHWDULVPXV 5HVPHH /LWHUDWXU 'LH /HKUHQ )ULHGPDQV &gt;@ OHJHQ GXUFKDXV GHQ
6FKOX QDKH GD ZLU &gt;=HQWUDOEDQNHU@ DQ GLHVHP
7LVFKOHW]WOLFKEHUIOVVLJVLQG
/HRQKDUG*OHVNH
:HU JODXEW PDQ N|QQH GLH JDQ]H *HOGSROLWLN DXI
GLH NXU]IULVWLJH %HDFKWXQJ HLQHU HLQ]LJHQ VWDWLVWL
VFKHQ*U|HUHGX]LHUHQPDFKWVLFKGDV/HEHQ]X
OHLFKW &gt;@ 7URW]GHP HPSIDQG LFK VHOEVW GLH GRJ
PDWLVFKHQ0RQHWDULVWHQRIWDOVZHUWYROOH8QWHUVWW
]XQJ EHVRQGHUV ZHQQ HV JDOW GLH *HOGSROLWLN HL
QHU EUHLWHQ gIIHQWOLFKNHLW OHLFKWHU YHUVWlQGOLFK ]X
PDFKHQ
2WPDU(PPLQJHU
,VW GLH %XQGHVEDQN DP (QGH PHKU LQ GHQ QHXHQ
:HJGHUVLFKOHW]WOLFKDOVULFKWLJHUZLHVKLQHLQJH
VWROSHUWDOVGDVLHLKQEHVFKULWWHQKlWWH&quot;
-UJHQYRQ+DJHQ
'LH 'XUFKVHW]XQJ PRQHWDULVWLVFKHU /HKUHQ LQ GHU *HOGSROLWLN JHK|UW ]X GHQ PLW DP EHVWHQ
GRNXPHQWLHUWHQ7KHPHQGHU7KHRULHGLVNXVVLRQ'HQQRFKJLEWHV$QODVLFKHUQHXWGDPLW]X
EHVFKlIWLJHQ=XPHLQHQSURYR]LHUWH6DUJHQWV*HVFKLFKWHGHV6LHJHVEHUGLHDPHUL
NDQLVFKH ,QIODWLRQ :LGHUVSUXFK DXV (QJODQG (LQ 3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ.RQ]HSW GDV GXUFK GHQ
0RQHWDULVPXVHUIROJUHLFKEHUZXQGHQXQGHUVHW]WZRUGHQVHLKDEHHVGRUWJDUQLFKWJHJH
EHQ 1HOVRQ ,Q 'HXWVFKODQG ZLHGHUXP KDW GLH %XQGHVEDQN LQ GHU %HJUQGXQJ XQG
'XUFKIKUXQJ LKUHU *HOGSROLWLN VWHWV HLQH QLFKW XQZHVHQWOLFKH 'LVWDQ] ]X WKHRUHWLVFKHQ XQG
SUDNWLVFKHQ1RUPHQGHV0RQHWDULVPXVHUNHQQHQODVVHQ6FKOLHOLFKWDXFKWLQGHQDNWXHOOHQ
'LVNXVVLRQHQ XP GDV PRQHWDULVWLVFKH (OHPHQW LQ GHU 6WUDWHJLH GHU (=% GLH )UDJH DXI RE
JHOGSROLWLVFKH .RQ]HSWLRQHQ EHUKDXSW DXV ]HLWORVHQ $UJXPHQWHQ EHU GLH ULFKWLJH *HOG
XQG0DNURWKHRULHJHZRQQHQZHUGHQN|QQHQRGHUREQLFKWYLHOPHKUGLHZLUWVFKDIWVXQGGRJ
PHQKLVWRULVFKHQ 5DKPHQEHGLQJXQJHQ ]X XQWHUVXFKHQ VLQG XP GLH 3IDGDEKlQJLJNHLW GHU
.DUULHUHHLQHV3DUDGLJPDVYHUVWHKHQ]XN|QQHQ+DJHQ
*UXQGVlW]OLFKVLQGZLUQRFKZHLWHQWIHUQWYRQHLQHPDOOJHPHLQHQ9HUVWlQGQLVGHV=XVDP
PHQKDQJV]ZLVFKHQGHU7KHRULHHQWZLFNOXQJXQGGHU:DKOZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHU6WUDWHJLHQ
(LQHUVHLWVZLUGDXIGLH=HLWJHEXQGHQKHLWJHOGWKHRUHWLVFKHU$XVVDJHQXQGDXILKUH$EKlQJLJ
NHLWYRQZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHQ=LHOYRUVWHOOXQJHQKLQJHZLHVHQ&amp;ODDVVHQII$QGHUHU
VHLWV LVW HV RIIHQVLFKWOLFK QDLY DQ]XQHKPHQ GD VLFK :LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLNHU XQG 1RWHQEDQNHU
EHLGHU(QWVFKHLGXQJEHU*UXQGOLQLHQXQG$XVULFKWXQJZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHU.RQ]HSWLRQHQ
YRQ GHU DQDO\WLVFKHQ %ULOODQ] HLQHU QHXHQ /HKUH EHHLQGUXFNHQ ODVVHQ %HUHLWV LQ IUKHUHQ
3KDVHQ GHU :LUWVFKDIWVJHVFKLFKWH LVW GHXWOLFK JHZRUGHQ GD GLHVH (QWVFKHLGXQJHQ QLFKW
=LWQDFK1HXPDQQQ
+HLQ]3HWHU6SDKQ
]XOHW]WYRQ2SSRUWXQLWlWVJHVLFKWVSXQNWHQVRZLHYRP(LJHQLQWHUHVVHSROLWLVFKHU$NWHXUHXQG
,QVWLWXWLRQHQDEKlQJHQ6WUHLOHU
'HUIROJHQGH%HLWUDJJOLHGHUWVLFKLQ]ZHL.DSLWHO,PHUVWHQZLUGGLHWKHRUHWLVFKH'HEDWWH
]ZLVFKHQ3RVWNH\QHVLDQLVPXVXQG0RQHWDULVPXVLQGHQHU-DKUHQHQWODQJHLQLJHUZLFKWL
JHU6WUHLWSXQNWHQDFKJH]HLFKQHW(VZLUGVLFKGDEHL]HLJHQGDGLH)URQW]ZLVFKHQEHLGHQ
6FKXOHQNHLQHVZHJV VR NODU XQG HLQGHXWLJ ZDU ZLH GLHV LQ 0HGLHQ gIIHQWOLFKNHLW XQG :LV
VHQVFKDIW ]XZHLOHQ EHKDXSWHW ZLUG (LQ PDUNDQWHU WKHRUHWLVFKHU )RUWVFKULWW LVW QXU VHKU EH
GLQJW DXV]XPDFKHQ ,P ]ZHLWHQ .DSLWHO ZLUG XQWHUVXFKW ZHOFKH WKHRUHWLVFKHQ LQVWLWXWLRQHO
OHQXQGSROLWLVFKHQ*UQGHIUGLH1HXRULHQWLHUXQJGHUGHXWVFKHQ*HOGSROLWLNDEDXV
VFKODJJHEHQGZDUHQ'LHQHXHQPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ/HKUHQHUZLHVHQVLFKGDEHLYRUDOOHPIU
GLH$XHQGDUVWHOOXQJGHV.XUVZHFKVHOVDOVQW]OLFK
(LQH1DFKOHVH]XU.H\QHVLDQLVPXV0RQHWDULVPXV.RQWURYHUVH
'HU(UIROJGHV0RQHWDULVPXVLP7KHRULHQVWUHLWGHUHUXQGHU-DKUHHUVFKHLQWLP1DFK
KLQHLQEHWUDFKWHWGHVKDOEDOVUlWVHOKDIWZHLOYLHOHVHLQHU7KHVHQIUGLH0HKUKHLWGHU|NRQR
PLVFKHQ 3URIHVVLRQ KHXWH NDXP VWULWWLJ VHLQ GUIWHQ 'LHV JLOW ]XPLQGHVW IU GLH &amp;KDUDNWHUL
VLHUXQJGHU,QIODWLRQDOVPRQHWlUHV3KlQRPHQIUGLHODQJIULVWLJH1HXWUDOLWlWGHV*HOGHVXQG
IU GLH %HVFKUHLEXQJ GHV 7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXV GHU *HOGSROLWLN DOV 6XEVWLWXWLRQVSUR
]H]ZLVFKHQHLQHPZHLWJHIDWHQ6SHNWUXPYRQ9HUP|JHQVXQG*WHUPDUNWDNWLYD8QZLOO
NUOLFKLVWPDQYHUVXFKWGDUDQ]X]ZHLIHOQGDGHUDUWLJH.HUQWKHVHQYRQHLQHUGDPDOVKHUU
VFKHQGHQ /HKUH EHUKDXSW EHVWULWWHQ ZRUGHQ VLQG +DEHQ GLH 0RQHWDULVWHQ PLW LKUHQ $UJX
PHQWHQGHQ.H\QHVLDQHUQLPSOL]LW3RVLWLRQHQXQWHUJHVFKREHQGLHYRQGLHVHQJDUQLFKWYHU
WUHWHQZRUGHQVLQG&quot;
'LH 4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH UXKW DXI GUHL %DXVWHLQHQ 6FKXPSHWHU 6NLGHOVNL 6YHQVVRQ
• 'DV*HOGDQJHERWLVWXQDEKlQJLJYRQGHUDXIGLHUHDOH*HOGPHQJHJHULFKWHWHQ*HOGQDFK
IUDJHGHILQLHUEDUXQGYRQ6HLWHQGHU*HOGSROLWLNVWHXHUEDU
• 'LH 8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW GHV *HOGHV LVW PHKU RGHU ZHQLJHU NRQVWDQW NODVVLVFKH 9D
ULDQWHRGHUIROJWLQHLQHPVWDELOHQ)XQNWLRQV]XVDPPHQKDQJPLWDQGHUHQ9DULDEOHQHLQHP
YRUKHUVHKEDUHQ7UHQGQHRNODVVLVFKPRQHWDULVWLVFKH9DULDQWH
• 3URGXNWLRQ%HVFKlIWLJXQJXQGUHDOHV:DFKVWXPZHUGHQODQJIULVWLJQLFKWYRQPRQHWlUHQ
,PSXOVHQEHHLQIOXW
$OOH GUHL %DXVWHLQH VLQG QRWZHQGLJ XQG KLQUHLFKHQG IU GLH LQKDOWOLFKH $XVVDJH GHU 4XDQWL
WlWVWKHRULHZRQDFKGLH,QIODWLRQGXUFKHLQEHUPlLJHV*HOGDQJHERWVHLWHQVGHU:lKUXQJV
EHK|UGHQYHUXUVDFKWZLUG)ULHGPDQVWHLOZHLVHHPRWLRQVJHODGHQH6WHOOXQJQDKPHQEHU1R
WHQEDQNHUXQGVHLQ3OlGR\HUIUHLQHXQSROLWLVFKHUHJHOJHEXQGHQH*HOGYHUVRUJXQJVLQGYRU
GLHVHP+LQWHUJUXQG]XVHKHQ
:DV KDW GHU 0RQHWDULVPXV GHP KLQ]XJHIJW&quot; =XU 6WUXNWXULHUXQJ GHU $QWZRUW DXI GLHVH
:LHGHU0RQHWDULVPXVQDFK'HXWVFKODQGNDP
)UDJHELHWHWHVVLFKDQHQWODQJGHU]Z|OI3XQNWHYRU]XJHKHQGLHLQGHPYLHOEHDFKWHWHQ%HL
WUDJ YRQ 0D\HU DOV FKDUDNWHULVWLVFK IU GHQ 0RQHWDULVPXV DQJHVHKHQ ZXUGHQ 6LH
ZHUGHQ LP IROJHQGHQ LQ XQWHUVFKLHGOLFKHU ,QWHQVLWlW GLVNXWLHUW GLH HUVWHQ YLHU GLHVHU 3XQNWH
ZDUHQ IU %UXQQHU GHQ 1DPHQVVFK|SIHU GHV 0RQHWDULVPXV HQWVFKHLGHQG 0D\HU
EHWRQWHGDGLH]Z|OI3XQNWHQLFKWORJLVFK]ZLQJHQG]XVDPPHQKlQJHQDOVR]7DXFKXQ
DEKlQJLJ YRQHLQDQGHU DN]HSWLHUW RGHU YHUZRUIHQ ZHUGHQ N|QQHQ 9RU DOOHP VHLHQ HLQ]HOQH
3XQNWHGXUFKDXVPLWGHUNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ/HKUHYHUHLQEDU%HQMDPLQ)ULHGPDQZLH
GHUXP ZDU GHU 0HLQXQJ GD DOOH ]Z|OI 3XQNWH QXU HPSLULVFKH 6WUHLWIlOOH GDUVWHOOHQ 0LOWRQ
)ULHGPDQDVDKGLHVlKQOLFK7KHEDVLFGLIIHUHQFHVDPRQJHFRQRPLVWVDUHHPSL
ULFDOQRWWKHRUHWLFDO'LH,PSOLNDWLRQGHU0RQHWDULVPXVELHWHGDQDFKJDUNHLQHWKHRUHWLVFKH
$OWHUQDWLYH]XUNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ/HKUHZLUGVLFKLPIROJHQGHQDEHUGRFKDOVLUUHIKUHQGHU
ZHLVHQ
$EKlQJLJNHLWGHV1RPLQDOHLQNRPPHQVYRQGHU*HOGPHQJH
'LH :XU]HOQ GHU PRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ /HKUH ZHUGHQ LQ HLQHU 5HDNWLRQ DXI GHQ 6WDQG GHU KHUU
VFKHQGHQ DOV NH\QHVLDQLVFK EH]HLFKQHWHQ 0DNURWKHRULH GHU HU XQG 50er Jahre in den
USA gesehen. Die monet&auml;re Perspektive war offenbar so in den Hintergrund gedr&auml;ngt, da&szlig;
beispielsweise die Geldmenge in den g&auml;ngigen Lehrb&uuml;chern kaum erw&auml;hnt worden sei (&amp;D
JDQMeltzer 1998). Der Report der amerikanischen &amp;RPPLVVLRQRQ0RQH\DQG&amp;UHGLW
YRQZXUGHHEHQVRZLHGHUEULWLVFKH5DGFOLIIH5HSRUWYRQPLWHLQHU%RWVFKDIWGHV
0RQH\GRHVQRWPDWWHUFKDUDNWHULVLHUW
1XQPXHLQHVROFKH'LDJQRVHGHU1LFKWWKHPDWLVLHUXQJPRQHWlUHU)DNWRUHQQLFKWEHGHX
WHQGDVLHWDWVlFKOLFKXQZLFKWLJZDUHQ7\SLVFKHUZHLVHZHUGHQLQ|NRQRPLVFKHQ'LVNXUVHQ
)DNWRUHQ EHKDQGHOW GLH GHVKDOE HLQ 3UREOHP GDUVWHOOHQ ZHLO PDQ EHU VLH QLFKW YHUIJW
*HOG ZDU MHGRFK QLFKW NQDSS 0DQ GDUI QLFKW EHUVHKHQ GD GLH *HOGPHQJH LP %UHWWRQ
:RRGV6\VWHPHEHQVRZLHLP*ROGVWDQGDUGHQGRJHQEHVWLPPWZDU'HU9HUVXFKGHU&amp;XU
UHQF\6FKXOHPLWGHU3HHOVFKHQ$NWHYRQWDWVlFKOLFKHLQH*HOGPHQJHQEHVFKUlQNXQJ
HLQ]XIKUHQXQGGDVEHVFKZRUHQH,GHDOHLQHUH[RJHQHQ*HOGPHQJH]XYHUZLUNOLFKHQVFKHL
WHUWHNOlJOLFKXQGZXUGHGXUFKHLQ.RQ]HSWHLQHU]LQVSROLWLVFKHQ6WHXHUXQJDEJHO|VWGDVLP
*UXQGH ELV KHXWH GHQ $OOWDJ GHU =HQWUDOEDQNHQ NHQQ]HLFKQHW %ODXJ 6SDKQ II,QVEHVRQGHUHIU/HLWZlKUXQJVOlQGHUZLHGLH86$ZLGHUVSUDFKGLH,GHHHLQHUTXDQWLWD
WLYHQ%HJUHQ]XQJGHU*HOGPHQJHGHQSUDNWLVFKHQ1RUPHQHLQHUVHUL|VHQ%DQNXQG:lK
UXQJVSROLWLN
F&uuml;r die Zeit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg wurden zudem deflatorische Gefahren bef&uuml;rchtet, so da&szlig; Konzepte zur Geldmengenverknappung &plusmn; angesichts der soeben &uuml;berwundenen
Weltwirtschaftskrise &plusmn; riskant erschienen. Die Prognose war zwar falsch, aber gerade im
amerikanischen Fall lie&szlig; die aufgelaufene riesige Staatsschuld eine Bek&auml;mpfung der Inflation &uuml;ber Geldpolitik als fiskalisch zu teuer erscheinen; h&ouml;here Zinskosten waren im Staats-
haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde prim&auml;r die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument
gegen inflatorische Tendenzen empfohlen (Johnson 1963, Friedman 1968, Neubauer 1977).
8QWHU GHQ KLVWRULVFKLQVWLWXWLRQHOOHQ 5DKPHQEHGLQJXQJHQ HLQHU HODVWLVFKHQ *HOGYHUVRU
JXQJZDUHVQDKHOLHJHQGGDDNWLYLHUHQGHXQGUHWDUGLHUHQGH)DNWRUHQIUGLHPDNUR|NRQR
PLVFKH(QWZLFNOXQJLP5HDOVHNWRUVHOEVWJHVXFKWZXUGHQZREHLPDQDXIGLH.H\QHVVFKHQ
DQLPDO VSLULWV %H]XJ QDKP GLH IU 6FKZDQNXQJHQ GHU ,QYHVWLWLRQVQHLJXQJ YHUDQWZRUWOLFK
VHLHQ &amp;KDUDNWHULVWLVFK IU GLH SRVWNH\QHVLDQLVFKH 6LFKWZHLVH LVW MHGRFK GLH 3RVLWLRQ GD
VHOEVWHLQH.RQWUROOHGHU*HOGPHQJHNHLQH.RQWUROOHEHUGLH1DFKIUDJHHQWZLFNOXQJHUODXEH
Some experts consider that the central task of monetary authorities is to keep a tight control on
the supply of money. If, it is argued, the central bank has both the will and the means to control
the supply of money, and either keeps it fixed or allows it to increase only in step with the growing needs of a growing economy, all will be well. [...] Our view is different. Though we do not regard the supply of money as an unimportant quantity, we view it as only part of a wider structure
of liquidity in the economy. [...] It is the whole liquidity position that is relevant to spending decisions and our interest in the supply of money is due to its significance in the whole liquidity picture. [...] The decision to spend thus depends on liquidity in the broad sense, not upon immediate access to the money. [...] The spending is not limited by the amount of money in existence
but it is related to the amount of money people think they can get hold of, whether by receipts of
income (for instance from sales), by disposal of capital assets or by borrowing.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: &sect;&sect; 388-390)
'LH(LQEHWWXQJGHU*HOGPHQJHLQGDV6SHNWUXPILQDQ]LHOOHU$VVHWVIKUWQDKHOLHJHQGHUZHLVH
DXFK]XHLQHPZHLWHQE]ZZHLFKGHILQLHUWHQ*HOGEHJULII
The money-quality of assets is something imposed by the business habits of people; it is attached in varying degree to various assets [...]. To label something as 'money', the supply of
which is to behave according to rules laid down by legal authority, is to build on shifting sand.
Richard S. Sayers (1957: 5)
Once interest-bearing financial assets are admitted as part of the 'money supply' (and [...] it is
impossible to exclude them if the notion of 'controlling the money supply' is to have any credibility) there is no clear demarcation line to be drawn between 'monetary' and 'non-monetary' financial assets. Any broad definition of the money supply is therefore arbitrary since it is invariably
surrounded by a spectrum of 'liquid assets' which are not comprised in it but which are close
substitutes to it.
Nicolas Kaldor (1982: 72)
*HOGPHQJH XQG 6R]LDOSURGXNW JDOWHQ LP 5DGFOLIIH5HSRUW DOV SUDNWLVFK Y|OOLJ XQDEKlQJLJ
YRQHLQDQGHUVRGDLKUH5HODWLRQGLH8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLWMHGHQEHOLHELJHQ:HUWDQQHK
PHQN|QQHXQGGHVKDOEHLQHLQKDOWVORVH.DWHJRULHVHL
The fact that spending is not Iimited by the amount of money in existence is sometimes argued
by reference to the velocity of circulation of money. It is possible for example to demonstrate
statistically that during the last few years the volume of spending has greatly increased while
the supply of money has hardly changed; the velocity of circulation of money has increased. We
=LWQDFK.DOGRU
have not made more use of this concept because we cannot find any reason for supposing, or
any experience in monetary history indicating, that there is any limit to the velocity of circulation;
it is a statistical concept that tells us nothing directly of the motivation that influences the level of
total demand.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: &sect; 391)
'DV %LOG HLQHU HUUDWLVFK VFKZDQNHQGHQ 8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW EHL HQGRJHQHU *HOGPHQJH
EHGHXWHW ZLH .DOGRU ]XVWLPPHQG DQPHUNWH HLQH GHXWOLFKH =XUFNZHLVXQJ GHU
4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH -HGRFK EHUXKW GLH VFKHLQEDU SODXVLEOH 9RUVWHOOXQJ GHU 6XEVWLWXWLRQ HLQHU
NQDSSHQ=HQWUDOEDQN*HOGPHQJHGXUFKUHLFKOLFKYHUIJEDUHOLTXLGH$VVHWVVRGD*HOG
PHQJH XQG 8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW JOHLFKVDP DOV WHFKQLVFKH 6XEVWLWXWH DQ]XVHKHQ VHLHQ
XQGVLFKJHJHQOlXILJEHZHJHQ.DOGRUOHW]WOLFKDXIHLQHU9HUZHFKVOXQJYRQ*HOG
XQG .UHGLW XQG VFKOLHW VRPLW HLQH (UNOlUXQJ GHV =LQVHV DXV -RKQVRQ 'LH %H
VWLPPXQJGHV*HOGPDUNW]LQVVDW]HVGXUFKGLH1RWHQEDQNVSULFKWLPEULJHQIUHLQHQHQJHQ
*HOGEHJULII
Geldsubstitute k&ouml;nnen sich [...] keineswegs bilden, weil eine Nachfrage nach Zentralbankgeld
nicht befriedigt wird. Ihre markttheoretische Funktion kann allein darin bestehen, ein Ansteigen
des Zinssatzes zu konterkarieren. [...] Die Stabilit&auml;t der Geldnachfrage wird nicht dadurch ersch&uuml;ttert, da&szlig; pl&ouml;tzlich in gr&ouml;&szlig;eren Umfang Kreditkarten verwendet werden, sondern dann best&auml;tigt, wenn der Zinssatz steigt und sich als Folge die Geldhaltung vermindert.
Hajo Riese (1986: 38f)
'LH7KHVHHLQHUPHFKDQLVFKHQ*HJHQOlXILJNHLWYRQ*HOGPHQJHXQG8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW
XQWHUVWHOOW)ULHGPDQDXFK.H\QHV&plusmn; ZDVVLFKVRDOOHUGLQJVQLFKWEHOHJHQOlW&plusmn; XQG
EHWRQWGDJHJHQGDLQGHU:HOWZLUWVFKDIWVNULVH*HOGPHQJHXQG8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLWJH
VXQNHQ VLQG 'LHVHV 3KlQRPHQ OlW VLFK DEHU RKQH 6FKZLHULJNHLW PLW GHU .H\QHVVFKHQ
7KHRULHYHUHLQEDUHQGDHLQHXQDQJHPHVVHQUHVWULNWLYHXQGYRQ%DQN]XVDPPHQEUFKHQEH
JOHLWHWH*HOGSROLWLNQDKHOLHJHQGHUZHLVHDXFKGLH/LTXLGLWlWVSUlIHUHQ]HUK|KW
=ZDUEH]RJVLFK)ULHGPDQ]XZHLOHQDXIGLHDOWHRUDOWUDGLWLRQGHU4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH&amp;KL
FDJRVIDNWLVFKHQWZLFNHOWHHUMHGRFKGLH.H\QHVVFKH/LTXLGLWlWVSUlIHUHQ]IXQNWLRQZHLWHU3D
WLQNLQ)ULHGPDQDVHOEVWKREGHQ8QWHUVFKLHG]XUDOWHQ4XDQWLWlWVWKHR
ULH KHUYRU )RU WKH WUDQVDFWLRQV YHUVLRQ &gt;RI WKH TXDQWLW\ WKHRU\@ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW WKLQJ
DERXWPRQH\LVWKDWLWLVWUDQVIHUUHG)RUWKHLQFRPHYHUVLRQWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWWKLQJLVWKDW
LWLVKHOG$XFKDXIPHKUIDFKH.ULWLNKLHOW)ULHGPDQEGDUDQIHVWGDEHL.H\QHVGLH
/LTXLGLWlWVIDOOHHLQHHQWVFKHLGHQGH5ROOHVSLHOH'LHHPSLULVFKHXQGWKHRUHWLVFKH=XUFNZHL
VXQJHLQHVVROFKHQ(ODVWL]LWlWVSHVVLPLVPXVZDUIUGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH6HLWHGLH*UXQGODJH
IUGLHSURSDJLHUWH5HQDLVVDQFHGHU*HOGSROLWLN%UXQQHU0HOW]HU0RQLVVHQ'LH
VWDELOH*HOGQDFKIUDJHIXQNWLRQEHUQDKPHLQHlKQOLFKVWUDWHJLVFKZLFKWLJH5ROOHLP*HVDPW
NRQ]HSW ZLH GLH ,GHH HLQHU VWDELOHQ .RQVXPIXQNWLRQ LP 3RVWNH\QHVLDQLVPXV =ZDU ZXUGH
DXFKEHLMHGHU.RQVWUXNWLRQGHV,6/00RGHOOV]XQlFKVWHLQHVWDELOH*HOGQDFKIUDJHIXQNWLRQ
DQJHQRPPHQ DEHU GLHVH )XQNWLRQ ZXUGH GHVKDOE ]XP 0DUNHQ]HLFKHQ GHV 0RQHWDULVPXV
ZHLO PDQ GLH NH\QHVLDQLVFKH 2UWKRGR[LH PLW GHQ %HKDXSWXQJHQ LGHQWLIL]LHUWH GD HV DXI
*HOGQLFKWDQNRPPHXQGGDGLH8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLWHQWZHGHUK|FKVWLQVWDELORGHUXQ
HQGOLFK]LQVHODVWLVFKVHL-RKQVRQ
=XGHP ZDUI )ULHGPDQ D GHQ .H\QHVLDQHUQ YRU bQGHUXQJHQ GHU QRPLQDOHQ *HOG
PHQJH JUXQGVlW]OLFK PLW UHDOHQ *HOGPHQJHQlQGHUXQJHQ JOHLFK]XVHW]HQ XQG GDUEHU =LQV
XQG5HDOHLQNRPPHQVHIIHNWH]XEHJUQGHQ0|JOLFKHUZHLVHKDWWHQGLHWKHRUHWLVFKXQGZLUW
VFKDIWVSROLWLVFKKHUUVFKHQGHQ.H\QHVLDQHUJU|HUH6FKZLHULJNHLWHQGHQhEHUJDQJYRP5H
JLPH GHV *ROGVWDQGDUGV PLW HLQHP &plusmn; LQ (QJODQG &plusmn; EHU -DKUH WUHQGPlLJ NRQVWDQWHQ
3UHLVQLYHDX ]XP 5HJLPH GHV /RKQVWDQGDUGV PLW HLQHP VHLW (QGH GHV =ZHLWHQ :HOWNULHJV
DQVWHLJHQGHQ3UHLVQLYHDXPHQWDOQDFK]XYROO]LHKHQ-HQVHLWVGLHVHUHPSLULVFKHQ)UDJHLVWDO
OHUGLQJVGLH8QWHUVWHOOXQJ.H\QHV
7KHRULHEHUXKHDXIHLQHP)L[SUHLVPRGHOOYHUIHKOW*HUD
GHZHLOHUSURGXNWLRQVWKHRUHWLVFKDQVLQNHQGHQ(UWUlJHQIHVWKlOWYDULLHUWGDV3UHLVQLYHDXPLW
GHP2XWSXWHUKDWDXFKHLQJHKHQGGDUJHOHJWGDVLQNHQGH/|KQHDQVHLQHU7KHRULHQLFKWV
lQGHUQ.H\QHVII+DKQ
*UXQGVlW]OLFK KDEHQ PDNUR|NRQRPLVFKH 0RGHOOH VWHWV HLQHQ QRPLQDOHQ )UHLKHLWVJUDG
hEOLFKHUZHLVHQLFKWQXULQGHUPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ7KHRULHZLUGGLHVHUGXUFKGLH9RUJDEHGHU
*HOGPHQJH JHVFKORVVHQ GDPLW HUVFKHLQW HLQH 5LJLGLWlW GHV 1RPLQDOORKQV ]ZDQJVOlXILJ DOV
9HUOHW]XQJGHU0DUNWNUlIWHGDV6\VWHPLVWGDQQEHUEHVWLPPW*HUDGHZHQQPDQDEHUGDV
QHRNODVVLVFKH&amp;UHGRHLQHU,UUHOHYDQ]GHV1RPLQDOVWDQGDUGVHUQVWQLPPWLVWGLH6HW]XQJHL
QHU H[RJHQHQ *HOGPHQJH OHGLJOLFK HLQH IRUVFKXQJVSROLWLVFKH .RQYHQWLRQ 5HDOLWHU ZLUG GDV
6\VWHP GHU 1RPLQDOJU|HQ LQ QLFKW JHULQJHUHP 0DH GXUFK GLH 1RPLQDOORKQVlW]H LQ 7DULI
YHUKDQGOXQJHQ IRUWJHVFKULHEHQ 'HU /RKQVWDQGDUG GHILQLHUW GDQQ GLH NH\QHVLDQLVFKH 9D
ULDQWH GHU 4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH +LFNV 5LHVH 'DPLW ZLUG LQVRZHLW GLH
*HOGPHQJH ]X HLQHU HQGRJHQHQ *U|H ZDV LQ GHU PRGHUQHQ 0DNURWKHRULH DXFK ]XQHK
PHQGDQHUNDQQWZLUGLKUHLQGLUHNWH9DULDWLRQEHUGHQ=LQVVWHOOWGDQQHEHQIDOOVHLQH6W|
UXQJGHV0DUNWSUR]HVVHVGDUHEHQHLQHJHOGSROLWLVFKH,QWHUYHQWLRQ
7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXVGHUUHODWLYHQ3UHLVH
,Q)ULHGPDQV:HOWVSLHOWHVVFKHLQEDUNHLQH5ROOHREHLQPRQHWlUHU,PSXOVSHU2IIHQPDUNW
SROLWLN RGHU SHU +XEVFKUDXEHU DXVJHO|VW ZLUG 6WHWV ODXIHQ GHUDUWLJH 6W|UXQJHQ DXI HLQH
SURSRUWLRQDOH bQGHUXQJHQ DOOHU 1RPLQDOZHUWH KLQDXV 7RELQ PRQLHUWH GHVKDOE GD
(VLVWLQWHUHVVDQWGDVLFK)ULHGPDQVSlWHUGXUFKDXVYHUVWlQGQLVYROOEHUGDV7KHPD
GHU/RKQULJLGLWlWlXHUWH&amp;ODVVLFDODQGQHRFODVVLFDOHFRQRPLVWVKDGORQJUHFRJQL]HGWKDWSULFHDQG
ZDJHULJLGLW\H[LVWHGDQGFRQWULEXWHGWRXQHPSOR\PHQWGXULQJF\FOLFDOFRQWUDFWLRQV&gt;@%XWWR WKHP
ZDJHULJLGLW\ZDVDGHIHFWRIWKHPDUNHWWR.H\QHVLWZDVDUDWLRQDOUHVSRQVH&gt;@WRWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI
XQGHUHPSOR\PHQW HTXLOLEULXP %HL UDWLRQDOHQ (UZDUWXQJHQ LVW HV IU GLH *HZHUNVFKDIWHQ LQ GHU 7DW
VLQQYROOVLFKJHJHQ/RKQNU]XQJHQ]XZHKUHQZHLOGLHVNHLQHQ%HVFKlIWLJXQJVJHZLQQVRQGHUQQXU
QXW]ORVHUHODWLYH(LQNRPPHQVlQGHUXQJHQ]ZLVFKHQHLQ]HOQHQ/RKQDUEHLWHUJUXSSHQEULQJW
0RQHWDULVWHQ JHOGSROLWLVFKH .XUVlQGHUXQJHQ OHW]WOLFK DQDORJ ]X HLQHU 1HXIHVWVHW]XQJ GHV
:lKUXQJVVWDQGDUGVEHKDQGHOWHQGLHWULYLDOHUZHLVHUHDOZLUWVFKDIWOLFKQHXWUDOLVW7DWVlFKOLFK
JHKHQJHOGSROLWLVFKH2SHUDWLRQHQDEHUVWHWVPLWUHODWLYHQ0HQJHQXQG3UHLVlQGHUXQJHQDXI
GHQ)LQDQ]PlUNWHQHLQKHU$XIJUXQGGLHVHU6WUXNWXUHIIHNWHLVW1HXWUDOLWlWVHKUYLHOVFKZLHUL
JHU QDFK]XZHLVHQ 'LH $OORNDWLRQVHIIHNWH PRQHWlUHU ,PSXOVH PDUNLHUHQ GDV *HUVW GHV
7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXV GHU *HOGSROLWLN )ULHGPDQV :HLWHUHQWZLFNOXQJ GHU .H\
QHVVFKHQ *HOGQDFKIUDJHWKHRULH IKUW ]X HLQHP 3RUWIROLRPRGHOO GDV HLQH GLUHNWH :DKO ]ZL
VFKHQ *HOG XQG *WHUQDFKIUDJH EHLQKDOWHW XQG GDPLW HLQHQ XQPLWWHOEDUHQ %H]XJ ]X GHQ
6WURPJU|HQGHU3URGXNWLRQVHEHQHKHUVWHOOW'LH,QYHVWLWLRQVQDFKIUDJHZLUGQLFKWHUVWEHU
GHQ8PZHJYRQ=LQVHIIHNWHQEHUKUWHVJLEWYLHOPHKUHLQHGLUHNWH6XEVWLWXWLRQ]ZLVFKHQDO
OHQ$UWHQYRQ$VVHWVILQDQ]LHOOHUXQGUHDOHU$UW$EHUGLHVVHLNHLQHJUXQGVlW]OLFKH$EJUHQ
]XQJ]X.H\QHV7KHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQXVDQGWKH.H\QHVLDQVLVOHVVLQWKHQDWXUHRIWKH
SURFHVVWKDQLQWKHUDQJHRIDVVHWVFRQVLGHUHG)ULHGPDQD
1LFKW ]XOHW]W DXIJUXQG GLHVHV *UDGXDOLVPXV IDQG 7RELQ HV UlWVHOKDIW GD )ULHG
PDQJODXEHQNRQQWHPLWVHLQHP%LOGGHV7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXVZHLWHUJHKHQGHPRQH
WDULVWLVFKH6FKOXIROJHUXQJHQEHZHLVHQ]XN|QQHQ$XFK%UXQQHU0HOW]HUJLQJHQDQ
GLHVHP 3XQNW DXI 'LVWDQ] ]X )ULHGPDQ HU KDEH VLFK QLFKW ]XUHLFKHQG PLW GHU :LHGHUHQW
GHFNXQJ GHU 3UHLVWKHRULH ]XU (UNOlUXQJ PDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHU 3UR]HVVH DXVHLQDQGHUJHVHW]W
%UXQQHU0HOW]HU IROJHQ KLHU /HLMRQKXIYXG GHU GDV preistheoretische Fundament der
.H\QHVVFKHQVerm&ouml;gensmarkttheorie IUHLJHOHJWKDWWH(VJHKHXPHLQHJUXQGOHJHQGH1HX
IRUPXOLHUXQJ GHV XUVSUQJOLFKHQ 3URJUDPPHV YRQ .H\QHV %UXQQHU D 'HU HQW
VFKHLGHQGH3XQNWLVW.H\QHV
$JJUHJDWLRQVYHUIDKUHQGDV%RQGVXQG.DSLWDOJWHU]XHLQHP
$JJUHJDW QLFKWPRQHWlUH 9HUP|JHQVZHUWH ]XVDPPHQIDW ,P *HJHQVDW] ]XP VSlWHUHQ
SRVWNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ (LQ*XW0RGHOO ZHUGHQ VR .RQVXP XQG .DSLWDOJWHU XQWHUVFKLHGHQ
GDPLWZLUGHLQUHODWLYHU3UHLVVLFKWEDUGHULP7UDQVPLVVLRQVSUR]HHLQHJURH 5ROOH VSLHOW
(LQH=LQVlQGHUXQJEHUKUWEHUGLH'HILQLWLRQGHUQLFKWPRQHWlUHQ9HUP|JHQVZHUWHDOVGLV
NRQWLHUWH(UWUDJVVWU|PHXQPLWWHOEDUGHQUHODWLYHQ3UHLVYRQ.DSLWDOJWHUQXQG]LHKWVRSRUWIR
OLRWKHRUHWLVFKH $QSDVVXQJVYRUJlQJH QDFK VLFK GLH SRVWNH\QHVLDQLVFKH )L[LHUXQJ DXI GLH
.UHGLWNRVWHQ HUVFKHLQW DOV LUUHIKUHQGH 9HUHQJXQJ GHV %OLFNZLQNHOV (QWVFKHLGHQG LVW GLH
9HUP|JHQVVWUXNWXUGHUSULYDWHQ%LODQ]HQQLFKWGHU*UDGLKUHU.UHGLWILQDQ]LHUXQJ
$XI TXDQWLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKH 7UDGLWLRQHQ OHJHQ %UXQQHU0HOW]HU NHLQHQ EHUJURHQ :HUW
=ZDUZLUGGHU1RWHQEDQNHLQHQWVFKHLGHQGHU(LQIOXDXIGLH*HOGPHQJH]XJHELOOLJWGLHVHHU
VFKHLQWMHGRFKVFKRQDXIJUXQGGHUJHQDXHUHQ%HKDQGOXQJGHV)LQDQ]VHNWRUVLQVEHVRQGHUH
GHV.UHGLWPDUNWHVZHQLJHUDOVH[RJHQHU$XVJDQJVSXQNWVRQGHUQHKHUDOVHQGRJHQHU,Q
GLNDWRU GHU EHU )LQDQ]PlUNWH %DQNHQ XQG 9HUP|JHQVEHVLW]HU ODXIHQGHQ 0DUNWSUR]HVVH
IUHLOLFKVFKOLHWGLH(QGRJHQLWlWGHU*HOGPHQJHIUVLHQLFKWGLH.DXVDOLWlWLQ%H]XJDXIGDV
(LQNRPPHQDXV.DOPEDFK*HEDXHU/DLGOHU'DV)RUVFKXQJVSURJUDPP
'DEHLEHWUDFKWHW)ULHGPDQDOOHUGLQJVQLFKWGHQ=LQVVRQGHUQGHQ.HKUZHUWGHV3UHLVQLYHDXVDOV
GHQ3UHLVGHV*HOGHV
YRQ %UXQQHU0HOW]HU ]LHOWH GDUDXI DE GDV HLQIDFKH DXV QXU ZHQLJHQ $VVHWV EHVWHKHQGH
.H\QHVVFKH0RGHOO]XHLQHUUHLFKKDOWLJHQ9HUP|JHQV*WHUXQG$UEHLWVPDUNWWKHRULHDXV
]XEDXHQ GLH %HVWDQGV XQG 6WURPJU|HQ VRZLH GLH %XGJHWEHVFKUlQNXQJHQ DOOHU $NWHXUH
XQG GDEHL GLH )RUWVFKULWWH GHU ,QIRUPDWLRQV|NRQRPLH EHUFNVLFKWLJW )ULHGPDQV SXQNWXHOOHV
)HVWKDOWHQDPHLQIDFKHQ,6/00RGHOOGDVGLHYLHOIlOWLJHQ(IIHNWHLP7UDQVPLVVLRQVSUR]H
QXUXQYROONRPPHQRGHUJDUQLFKWHUIDVVHQNDQQZXUGHGHPHQWVSUHFKHQGDOVYHUDOWHWJH
UJW6HLQ7KHRUHWLFDO)UDPHZRUNOLHIHUHNHLQHDGlTXDWH*UXQGODJHIUGLH*HOGWKHRULHXQG
GLHHPSLULVFKH$QDO\VH%UXQQHUDE%UXQQHU0HOW]HU
)ULHGPDQV5HDNWLRQDXIGLHVH.ULWLNZDUK|IOLFKDEHUUHVHUYLHUW(U]HLJWHVLFKDQGHQPL
NURWKHRUHWLVFKHQ hEHUOHJXQJHQ ]XU (UNOlUXQJ GHU *HOGYHUZHQGXQJ %UXQQHU0HOW]HU ZHQLJHULQWHUHVVLHUWXQGHUNOlUWHGLH)RUWVFKULWWHEHLGHU,QIRUPDWLRQV|NRQRPLHVHLHQLUUHOH
YDQWWRP\OLPLWHGSXUSRVHHUDN]HSWLHUHGLHNRPSOH[H7UDQVPLVVLRQVWKHRULHNHLQHVZHJVLQ
DOOHQ'HWDLOV)ULHGPDQEII'LHVH'LVWDQ]LHUXQJOlWVLFKP|JOLFKHUZHLVHPLWHL
QHUXQIUHLZLOOLJHQ(LJHQVFKDIWGHV%UXQQHU0HOW]HU$QVDW]HVHUNOlUHQ$XIJUXQGVHLQHUUHLFK
KDOWLJHQ6WUXNWXUN|QQHQKLHUYLHOIlOWLJH(IIHNWHDXIWUHWHQ]%DXFKNH\QHVLDQLVFKH:LUNXQ
JHQGHU)LVNDOSROLWLN%UXQQHU0HOW]HUGLH)ULHGPDQ]XZHLOHQDXV*UQGHQHLQHVPH
WKRGLVFKHQXQGZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHQ5LJRULVPXVDXVEOHQGHQZROOWH'HU7UDQVPLVVLRQVPH
FKDQLVPXVGHUUHODWLYHQ3UHLVHHQWVSULFKWLP.HUQDXFKGHUNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ3RUWIROLRWKHRULH
7RELQ'DPLWDEHUZLUGGDV%UXQQHU0HOW]HU0RGHOO IU )ULHGPDQLDQHU ZHQLJHU JH
HLJQHW(VLVWHLQHUVHLWVYLHO]XGHWDLOOLHUW]XGHPDEKlQJLJYRQGHQLQVWLWXWLRQHOOHQ*HJHEHQ
KHLWHQGHUQDWLRQDOHQ)LQDQ]PlUNWHXQGOHW]WOLFK]XXQEHVWLPPWXPHLQIDFKHZLUWVFKDIWVSROL
WLVFKH'RJPHQDEVLFKHUQ]XN|QQHQ
Brunner and Meltzer provided an analytical framework capable of yielding either side's predictions, about for example, the significance of monetary impulses in generating inflation, or the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand, thus establishing that these issues were empirical
rather than theoretical.
The simple fact remains that a further 30 years of monetarist analysis has not been able to demonstrate the empirical existence of a structurally stable transmission mechanism between money and inflation to the satisfaction of its own practitioners, let alone its critics.
David Laidler (1995: 331, 1989: 1157)
'HUPRQHWDULVWLVFKH7UDQVPLVVLRQVSUR]HGHUUHODWLYHQ3UHLVHLVWPHWKRGLVFK]ZDUHOHJDQWHU
DOV GHU VLPSOH NH\QHVLDQLVFKH .UHGLWNRVWHQDQVDW] VWHKW MHGRFK LQKDOWOLFK YRU GHP JOHLFKHQ
3UREOHPHLQZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHUZQVFKWHV5HVXOWDWDSULRULQXUEHUHLQHJHHLJQHWH:DKO
GHU $QQDKPHQ VLFKHUVWHOOHQ ]X N|QQHQ :HQQ WURW] VLQNHQGHU .UHGLW]LQVHQ GLH ,QYHVWLWLRQ
$Q]XPHUNHQLVWDQGLHVHU6WHOOHGDGDPDOLJHQ6WXGLHQ]XUUHODWLYHQ:LUNVDPNHLWGHU*HOGXQG
)LVNDOSROLWLN$QGHUVHQ-RUGDQ&amp;DVVHO7KLHPHHKHUGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH3RVLWLRQEHVWlWLJ
WHQ&plusmn;HLQDXVKHXWLJHU6LFKWZHQLJHUVWDXQOLFKHV(UJHEQLV
(VLVWNHLQ=XIDOOGDVLFKGHUDPELWLRQLHUWH$QVDW]YRQ%UXQQHU0HOW]HUOHW]WOLFKQLFKWGXUFKVHW]HQ
NRQQWH ZlKUHQG )ULHGPDQV HLQIDFKHV 0DNURPRGHOO VSlWHU HUJlQ]W XP GLH $QQDKPH UDWLRQDOHU (U
ZDUWXQJHQDOVQHXNODVVLVFKHV3DUDGLJPDUHVVLHUWH
QLFKW]XQLPPWVREHGHXWHWGDVHEHQLPPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ$QVDW]GDGLH.DSLWDOJWHUSUHLVH
UHODWLY]XGHQ.RQVXPJWHUSUHLVHQHEHQ QLFKWVWHLJHQZHLOJHVXQNHQH(UWUDJVHUZDUWXQJHQ
GHQ 'LVNRQWLHUXQJVHIIHNW NRPSHQVLHUHQ 'XUFK GLH EORH :DKO HLQHU DQGHUHQ 7KHRULHVSUD
FKHODVVHQVLFKNHLQHLQKDOWOLFKHQ5HDNWLRQVSUREOHPHLP0DUNWEHUHLFKO|VHQ
'LH 0RQHWDULVWHQ SRVWXOLHUHQ GD *HOG HLQ JXWHV 6XEVWLWXW IU DOOH EULJHQ ILQDQ]LHOOHQ
XQGUHDOHQ$NWLYDLVW(LQJHOGSROLWLVFKHU,PSXOV]%HLQ2IIHQPDUNWNDXIZLUNWGDQQ]ZDQJV
OlXILJDXIDOOH0lUNWH'LHSULYDWHQ$NWHXUHQHKPHQGLHGDPLWYHUEXQGHQH9HUlQGHUXQJGHU
*HOG%RQGV5HODWLRQ LQ LKUHQ 3RUWIROLRV QLFKW HLQIDFK KLQ VRQGHUQ VWUHEHQ EHL NRQVWDQWHQ
3UlIHUHQ]HQ DXFK HLQH $QSDVVXQJ GHU *HOG*WHU5HODWLRQ DQ .H\QHVLDQHU KDOWHQ GDJH
JHQGDGLH9HUP|JHQVKDOWXQJLQEHVRQGHUHU:HLVHYRP*HVLFKWVSXQNWGHU/LTXLGLWlWJH
SUlJWLVW'HU/LTXLGLWlWVJUDGYRQ5HDODNWLYDLVWDEHULG5JHULQJLQVEHVRQGHUHIUGLHYRQ
PRQHWDULVWLVFKHU 6HLWH EHWRQWHQ ODQJOHELJHQ .RQVXPJWHUQ JLEW HV NHLQH RUJDQLVLHUWHQ %H
VWDQGVPlUNWH'DPLWN|QQWHQJHOGSROLWLVFKH,PSXOVHGXUFKDXVLP%HUHLFKGHU)LQDQ]PlUNWH
KlQJHQEOHLEHQ GDV LVW OHW]WOLFK HLQH HPSLULVFKH )UDJH *RRGKDUW &amp;ODDVVHQ II 3RKO 'LH (QWZLFNOXQJ VHLW GHU GDPDOLJHQ .RQWURYHUVH XQG GLH KHXWLJHQ
7HQGHQ]HQ DXI GHQ 9HUP|JHQVPlUNWHQ JHEHQ ZHQLJ $QOD ]X GHU +RIIQXQJ DQ GLHVHP
3XQNW]XVWDELOHQZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKQXW]EDUHQ(UNHQQWQLVVHQJHODQJHQ]XN|QQHQ
6WDELOLWlWGHVSULYDWHQ6HNWRUV
7URW] .H\QHV
TXDQWLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKHU :XU]HOQ .UHJHO 6NLGHOVNL KlWWH HU ZRKO
NDXPLQGHQHU-DKUHQDQYRUGHUVWHU)URQWGHU*HJHQUHYROXWLRQJHVWDQGHQZLH)ULHGPDQ
YHUVLFKHUWH.H\QHVZDUPRQHWlUHUgNRQRPLQGHP6LQQHGDHUPRQHWlUH3UREOH
PHZLH]%(QJODQGVhEHUEHZHUWXQJLQGHQHU-DKUHQDOVVROFKHHUNDQQWHXQGQLFKWZLH
HV KHXWH EOLFK JHZRUGHQ LVW PLW HLQHU UHDOZLUWVFKDIWOLFKPLNUR|NRQRPLVFKHQ $QDO\VH XQG
7KHUDSLH]XO|VHQYHUVXFKWKlWWH'LH)UDJHGHU6WDELOLWlWHLQHV9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJVJOHLFKJH
ZLFKWV LVW GHU ]HQWUDOH 3XQNW GHU .H\QHVLDQHU XQG 0RQHWDULVWHQ WUHQQW %UXQQHU JODXEWDQGLH6HOEVWVWDELOLVLHUXQJVNUlIWHGHV0DUNWHV.H\QHV
7KHVHHLQHULQVWDELOHQ*UHQ]
OHLVWXQJVIlKLJNHLWGHV.DSLWDOVZLUGVFKOLFKWYHUZRUIHQ%UXQQHUE
%UXQQHU0HOW]HUNDPHQ.H\QHV]XQlFKVWYHUVWlQGQLVYROOHQWJHJHQ(UKDEHY|OOLJ
]XUHFKWHUNDQQWGDGLH]HLWJHQ|VVLVFKHQHRNODVVLVFKH3UHLVWKHRULH&quot;GHP3KlQRPHQ$U
EHLWVORVLJNHLWKLOIORVJHJHQEHUVWDQGXQGGDUDXIKLQHLQHPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKH(UNOlUXQJNRQ
VWUXLHUW 'LHVHU ,UUZHJ N|QQH QXQ NRUULJLHUW ZHUGHQ 'LH QHXIRUPXOLHUWH 3UHLVWKHRULH N|QQH
DXIJUXQG GHU %HUFNVLFKWLJXQJ YRQ ,QIRUPDWLRQVSUREOHPHQ DXFK $UEHLWVORVLJNHLW HUNOlUHQ
8QDXVJHQXW]WH5HVVRXUFHQHUVFKHLQHQ&gt;@DOVHLQUDWLRQDOHU9HUVXFKGLH,QIRUPDWLRQVXQG
'LH.H\QHVVFKH/LTXLGLWlWVSUlPLHLVWHLQ]HQWUDOHV(OHPHQWGHU9HUP|JHQVKDOWXQJXQWHU8QVLFKHU
KHLW7KHUHLVWKXVDSUREDELOLW\WKDWDSRUWIROLRFKRLFHRQFHPDGHLVQRWRSWLPDOLQOLJKWRIZKDWZLOO
EHOHDUQHG7KLVFRQVLGHUDWLRQZKHQFRPELQHGZLWKWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVOHDGVWRDSUHPLXPRQ
OLTXLG
RUORZWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWDVVHWV7KLVSUHPLXPLVLQQDWXUHRIDQRSWLRQSXUFKDVH+DKQ6RORZ
YJO'DYLGVRQ+LFNVII.UHJHO
bQGHUXQJVNRVWHQDQJHVLFKWVYRQ1DFKIUDJHXQG$QJHERWVYHUVFKLHEXQJHQ]XPLQLPLHUHQ
'LH7UHQQXQJYRQ0LNURXQG0DNURWKHRULHNDQQDXIJHKREHQZHUGHQ(VJLEWQXUQRFKHLQH
|NRQRPLVFKH 7KHRULH GLH 3UHLVWKHRULH %UXQQHU D 0LW GLHVHQ UXGLPHQWlUHQ
hEHUOHJXQJHQ ]X GHP 3KlQRPHQ GHU 6XFKDUEHLWVORVLJNHLW EOHLEHQ %UXQQHU0HOW]HU DOOHU
GLQJV ZHLW KLQWHU GHU .H\QHVVFKHQ 7KHRULH GHU 8QWHUEHVFKlIWLJXQJ ]XUFN &plusmn; VLH HUIDVVHQ
QLFKWHLQPDOGDV3UREOHP
)ULHGPDQZLHGHUXPRIIHQEDUWDQGLHVHP3XQNWVHLQH1HLJXQJJDQ]XQEHIDQJHQWKHRUHWL
VFKH9HUVDW]VWFNHLQRSSRUWXQLVWLVFKHU/HLFKWLJNHLWVR]XVDPPHQ]XVHW]HQGDHLQHDSUL
RUL JHZlKOWH 3RVLWLRQ HLQH VFKHLQEDUH )XQGLHUXQJ HUKlOW 'LHV ]HLJW VLFK EHL VHLQHP &amp;RP
PRQ0RGHOHLQHPPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHQ=ZHL*OHLFKXQJV6\VWHPLQGHQ9DULDEOHQ5HDOHLQ
NRPPHQ3UHLVQLYHDXXQG=LQVGHVVHQ)UHLKHLWVJUDGDXIYHUVFKLHGHQH:HLVHJHVFKORVVHQ
ZHUGHQNDQQ)ULHGPDQKlOWVLFKGLH2SWLRQRIIHQGLHVHVHLQIDFKH,6/00RGHOOQDFK%HGDUI
GXUFKHLQHQDGKRF9HUZHLVDXI GDV ZDOUDVLDQLVFKH *OHLFKJHZLFKW ]X YHUYROOVWlQGLJHQ ,Q
GHU TXDQWLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQ 0RGHOOYDULDQWH UHDO LQFRPH LV GHWHUPLQHG RXWVLGH &gt;&quot;@ WKH V\
VWHP &gt;@ ,W DSSHQGV &gt;&quot;@ WR WKLV V\VWHP WKH :DOUDVLDQ HTXDWLRQV RI JHQHUDO HTXLOLEULXP
)ULHGPDQDYJO)ULHGPDQ
(LQGHUDUWLJREHUIOlFKOLFKHV+DQWLHUHQPLWWKHRUHWLVFKHQ0RGXOHQXQWHUVFKLHGOLFKHUPHWKR
GRORJLVFKHU+HUNXQIWYHUOHW]WHGLH%HUXIVHKUHHLQHV7KHRUHWLNHUVGHV$OOJHPHLQHQ*OHLFKJH
ZLFKWVZLH)UDQN+DKQGHUEHL)ULHGPDQVFKOLFKWHLQODFNRIVHULRXVQHVVNRQVWDWLHU
WHQLHPDQGKDEHELVODQJJH]HLJWZLHGLHQDWXUDOUDWHRIHPSOR\PHQWNRQVLVWHQWDXVHLQHP
ZDOUDVLDQLVFKHQ $QVDW] DEJHOHLWHW ZHUGHQ N|QQH 'DV ,6/00RGHOO GDV LQ VHLQHQ 9HUKDO
WHQVIXQNWLRQHQGDV(LQNRPPHQDOVXQDEKlQJLJH*U|HYRUJLEWLVW]XGHPLQNRPSDWLEHOPLW
GHP ZDOUDVLDQLVFKHQ 0RGHOO GDV GXUFK HLQH UHLQH 3UHLVDEKlQJLJNHLW GHU 0DUNWIXQNWLRQHQ
FKDUDNWHULVLHUWLVWhEHUKDXSWVHLGDV)HVWKDOWHQDQGLHVHP$QVDW]IRUVFKXQJVSROLWLVFKYHU
IHKOW GD HU D SULRUL GLH 1RWZHQGLJNHLW ZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHU ,QWHUYHQWLRQHQ DXVEOHQGHW 7KH
:DOUDVLDQ PRGHO GRHV QRW FDSWXUH DQ\ RI WKH PDUNHW IDLOXUHV PDFURHFRQRPLVWV KDYH EHHQ
FRQFHUQHGZLWKIRUIRUW\ILYH\HDUV+DKQ
1XQ GUIWH GLHVH .ULWLN DQ )ULHGPDQ VFKRQ GHVKDOE DEJHSUDOOW VHLQ ZHLO HU VLFK LQ HLQHU
DQGHUHQ 9DULDQWH VHLQHV &amp;RPPRQ 0RGHO H[SOL]LW DXI 0DUVKDOO EH]LHKW GHVVHQ 6LFKW GHV
|NRQRPLVFKHQ 3UR]HVVHV VXEVWDQWLHOO YRP ZDOUDVLDQLVFKHQ $QVDW] DEZHLFKW 'H 9URH\
)ULHGPDQVLHKWVLFKKLHUJDQ]LQHLQHU/LQLHPLW.H\QHVGHU&plusmn; ZLH/HLMRQKXIYXGVEULO
ODQWHV%XFKJH]HLJWKDEH&plusmn;JHJHQEHU0DUVKDOOOHGLJOLFKGLHUHODWLYHQ$QSDVVXQJVJHVFKZLQ
GLJNHLWHQ YRQ 0HQJHQ XQG 3UHLVHQ YHUWDXVFKW KDEH 'LHVHU 6SXU IROJW QXQ DXFK )ULHGPDQ
D LQ VHLQHU 7KHRULH GHV 1RPLQDOHLQNRPPHQV GLH WHPSRUlU GXUFKDXV 0HQJHQHIIHNWH
EHLPRQHWlUHQ,PSXOVHQ]XOlW $EHU DXFK GLHVH $QOHKQXQJ DQ WKHRUHWLVFKH $XWRULWlWHQ LVW
LQNRQVHTXHQW ZHLO GLH YRQ /HLMRQKXIYXG XQG &amp;ORZHU YHUWUHWHQH .H\QHV,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ EHU
HLQ IDOVH WUDGLQJ 5HDOHLQNRPPHQVHIIHNWH DXI]HLJW GLH GLH 6WDELOLWlW HLQHV 8QWHUEHVFKlIWL
(V VFKHLQW GD &plusmn; XP HLQH VS|WWLVFKH %HPHUNXQJ EHU .H\QHV ]X SDUDSKUDVLHUHQ &plusmn; GD DXFK
)ULHGPDQQLFKWGLH0LQXWHQ=HLWJHIXQGHQKDWXPGLHDOOJHPHLQH:HUWWKHRULH]XYHUVWHKHQ
JXQJVJOHLFKJHZLFKWV EHJUQGHQ (V EOHLEW XQNODU ZLHVR )ULHGPDQ QDFK GHU %H]XJQDKPH
DXIGLH/LQLH0DUVKDOO &plusmn; .H\QHV &plusmn; /HLMRQKXIYXG VHLQHUVHLWV HLQH 6WDELOLWlW EHL 9ROOEHVFKlIWL
JXQJSRVWXOLHUWJHUDGH ZHQQ HU H[SOL]LW GHP 5HDONDVVHQHIIHNW NHLQH JURH HPSLULVFKH %H
GHXWXQJ]XELOOLJW)ULHGPDQEYJO%XUFKDUGW/DLGOHU ,UUHOHYDQ]DOORNDWLYHU'HWDLOVIUGLH(QWZLFNOXQJYRQ0DNURDJJUHJDWHQ
,UUHOHYDQ]YRQ(LQ]HOSUHLVHQIUGLH(QWZLFNOXQJGHV3UHLVQLYHDXV
3UlIHUHQ]IUNOHLQHKRFKDJJUHJLHUWH0RGHOOH
'LHVH7KHVHQULFKWHQVLFKHLJHQWOLFKZHQLJHUJHJHQGLH.H\QHVLDQHUVRQGHUQXQWHUVWUHLFKHQ
GHQPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHQ$QVSUXFKGHV0RQHWDULVPXVWURW]GHU9LHOIDOWGHU7UDQVPLVVLRQV
ZHJHDPJOREDOHQ=XVDPPHQKDQJ]ZLVFKHQ*HOGPHQJHXQG1RPLQDOHLQNRPPHQIHVW]XKDO
WHQ %HVRQGHUH NUHGLWSROLWLVFKH 0DQDKPHQ KDEHQ GDQDFK OHGLJOLFK DOORNDWLYH DEHU ZHQLJ
DJJUHJDWLYH:LUNXQJHQ%UXQQHUE=XHLQHPDQGHUHQ8UWHLONRPPWPDQIUHLOLFKZHQQ
PDQXQYROONRPPHQH.DSLWDOPlUNWHDQQLPPWXQG3KlQRPHQHGHU.UHGLWUDWLRQLHUXQJEHUFN
VLFKWLJW 'LH IRUVFKXQJVSUDNWLVFKH 'HYLVH GHU 0RQHWDULVWHQ NOHLQH |NRQRPHWULVFKH 0RGHOOH
JHJHQGHQHWDEOLHUWHQ*UREHWULHEGHU.H\QHVLDQHU]XVHW]HQXQWHUVWUHLFKWLKUPDQJHOQGHV
,QWHUHVVH DQ DOORNDWLYHQ 'HWDLOV ]ROOW DEHU DXFK GHP (IIL]LHQ]JHGDQNHQ 7ULEXW PLW HLQHP
P|JOLFKVWJHULQJHQ$XIZDQG]XHLQGHXWLJHQ(UJHEQLVVHQ]XJHODQJHQ
'LH 8QWHUVFKHLGXQJ ]ZLVFKHQ HLQHP 3UHLVQLYHDXVFKXE XQG HLQHU ,QIODWLRQ JHK|UW ]XP
*UXQGODJHQZLVVHQ GHU gNRQRPLH LKUH 0LDFKWXQJ NDQQ GHU NH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ 6FKXOH ZRKO
QLFKWHUQVWKDIWDQJHODVWHWZHUGHQ/HW]WOLFKJHKWHVEHLGLHVHP3XQNWZLHGHUXPGLHLQVWLWX
WLRQHOOHQ5DKPHQEHGLQJXQJHQGHU*HOGXQG:lKUXQJVSROLWLNLQGHU1DFKNULHJV]HLW%HLHL
QHU HODVWLVFKHQ *HOGYHUVRUJXQJ HUK|KW HLQH DXWRQRPH (LQ]HOSUHLVVWHLJHUXQJ GDV 3UHLVQL
'LH %H]XJQDKPH DXI YHUVFKLHGHQH QHRNODVVLVFKH :XU]HOQ LP 0RQHWDULVPXV LVW VRPLW GXUFKDXV
YHUZLUUHQG*HQHUHOOZLUGHUDXIJUXQGGHV9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJVSRVWXODWVREMHNWLYGHPZDOUDVLDQLVFKHQ
$QVDW]]XJHRUGQHW,&gt;@GRQRWWKLQNWKDW\RXFDQEHD.H\QHVLDQRQWKHEDVLVRID:DOUDVLDQZRUOG
DQG , GR QRW WKLQN WKDW \RX FDQ EH D 0RQHWDULVW &gt;@ RQ WKH EDVLV RI D QRQ:DOUDVLDQ ZRUOG +DKQ
YJO.DOGRU)ULHGPDQVLHKWVLFKVHOEVWMHGRFK&plusmn; PLW$XVQDKPHGHULPSRUWLHUWHQ
QDWUOLFKHQ 5DWH GHU $UEHLWVORVLJNHLW &plusmn; DOV 0DUVKDOOLDQHU XQG NDQQ GDPLW GLH DOOJHPHLQH 0DUNWUlX
PXQJXQGGLH6WDELOLWlWGHV*OHLFKJHZLFKWVQXUEHKDXSWHQ%UXQQHU0HOW]HUVHW]HQVLFKH[SOL]LWYRP
ZDOUDVLDQLVFKHQ$QVDW]DEGLHLQIRUPDWLRQVWKHRUHWLVFKH5ROOHGHV*HOGHVLQGH]HQWUDOHQ7UDQVDNWLR
QHQZLUGGDPLWGHXWOLFKHUDOVEHL)ULHGPDQ$XFKVLHDN]HSWLHUHQGLH+\SRWKHVHHLQHUJHJHQEHU0DU
VKDOO JHlQGHUWHQ 5HLKHQIROJH YRQ 0HQJHQ XQG 3UHLVDQSDVVXQJHQ 'HU EHWRQWH *HVLFKWVSXQNW GHU
DOOJHPHLQHQ,QWHUGHSHQGHQ]LQLKUHPPLNURIXQGLHUWHQ7RWDOPRGHOOUFNWVLHPHWKRGLVFKMHGRFKZLHGHU
DQGLHZDOUDVLDQLVFKHgNRQRPLHKHUDQ.DOPEDFK'DYLGVRQ/DLGOHU
'LH PRQHWDULVWLVFKH .RQWHUUHYROXWLRQ YHUIROJWH GLH 0HWKRGRORJLH GHU SRVLWLYHQ gNRQRPLH GHUHQ
:HVHQ QLFKW GDULQ EHVWHKW GHVNULSWLYHQ 5HDOLVPXV &plusmn; UHSUlVHQWLHUW GXUFK GDV JU|WP|JOLFKH *OHL
FKXQJVV\VWHP&plusmn; DQ]XVWUHEHQVRQGHUQGDULQGLHZHVHQWOLFKHQ%H]LHKXQJHQDXV]XZlKOHQGLHHVHU
ODXEHQHWZDV*URHVDXVHWZDV.OHLQHP]XSURJQRVWL]LHUHQRKQHGDPDQVLFKXPGLHGD]ZLVFKHQ
OLHJHQGHQ.DXVDONHWWHQNPPHUQPWH'LHVH0HWKRGRORJLHEHGHXWHWHHLQHJDQ]RIIHQVLFKWOLFKH(U
OHLFKWHUXQJIUGHQLQWHOOHNWXHOOHQ0LWWHOVWDQGGHQQVLHEHIUHLWHLKQDXVGHU$EKlQJLJNHLWYRQJURHQ
)RUVFKXQJVWHDPVXQGJURHQXQGWHXUHQ&amp;RPSXWHUSURJUDPPHQ-RKQVRQ
0HOW]HUV(1998: 13) %HKDXSWXQJ&quot;Nonmonetarists often explain inflation as the result of individual
price changes&quot; mu&szlig; wohl eher als &uuml;ble Nachrede interpretiert werden.
YHDX0D\HUZHLVW]XUHFKWGDUDXIKLQGDGDPLWDXFKHLQHSRVLWLYH%HHLQIOXVVXQJGHU
,QYHVWLWLRQVQHLJXQJYHUEXQGHQVHLQNDQQGLHGDQQQRFKHLQHQVHNWRUDOHQ1DFKIUDJHVFKXE
DXVO|VW$EHUDXFKGLH,GHHGDHLQHNRQVWDQWH*HOGPHQJHZLHHLQH%XGJHWEHVFKUlQNXQJ
ZLUNHXQGHLQHNRPSHQVLHUHQGH3UHLVVHQNXQJDQDQGHUHU6WHOOHHU]ZLQJHZXUGHLQGHU]HLW
JHQ|VVLVFKHQ /HKUEXFKOLWHUDWXU $FNOH\ DQJHVLFKWV HLQHU IOH[LEOHQ 8PODXIJH
VFKZLQGLJNHLW]XUHFKWDOVUHDOLWlWVIHUQDQJHVHKHQ$OOHUGLQJVZDUHQ7UDGLWLRQXQG(UIDKUXQJ
HLQHVHODVWLVFKHQ*HOGDQJHERWVRIIHQEDUVRWLHIYHUZXU]HOWGDLQGHU7DW.RVWHQGUXFNXQG
1DFKIUDJHVRJWKHRULHQGHU,QIODWLRQYHUWUHWHQZXUGHQRKQHQRFKVWHWVH[SOL]LWDXILKUHPRQH
WlUHQ9RUDXVVHW]XQJHQKLQ]XZHLVHQGLH:LHGHUHQWGHFNXQJGLHVHUYHUGUlQJWHQ=XVDPPHQ
KlQJHZXUGHGDQQDOVQHXH,QIODWLRQVWKHRULHZDKUJHQRPPHQ-RKQVRQ
9HUZHQGXQJGHU*HOGEDVLVDOV,QGLNDWRUGHU*HOGSROLWLN
9HUZHQGXQJGHU*HOGPHQJHDOV=ZLVFKHQ]LHOGHU*HOGSROLWLN
0LWGHU$QQDKPHHLQHVVWDELOHQ9HUKlOWQLVVHV]ZLVFKHQ*HOGXQGDQGHUHQ)LQDQ]DNWLYDZLUG
GLH*HOGPHQJHQDKHOLHJHQGHUZHLVH]XHLQHPJXWHQ,QGLNDWRUIUGDV9HUKDOWHQGHU*HOGSROL
WLN'DEHLSUlIHULHUWHQ%UXQQHU0HOW]HUHLQHQJGHILQLHUWHV$JJUHJDWZHLOVLHGLH7DXVFKPLW
WHOUROOH GHV *HOGHV LP =HQWUXP VDKHQ ZlKUHQG )ULHGPDQ ]XZHLOHQ HLQH ZHLWH *HOGPHQJH
LP $XJH KDWWH GLH DXFK HLQH :HUWDXIEHZDKUXQJVIXQNWLRQ HUIOOW %UXQQHU &amp;ODDVVHQ
II/DLGOHU'LHSRVWXOLHUWH6WDELOLWlW]ZLVFKHQ*HOGXQG5HDODNWLYDHLQVFKOLH
OLFK GHU 3URGXNWLRQ PDFKW GLH *HOGPHQJH DXFK ]X HLQHP JXWHQ =ZLVFKHQ]LHO GHU 1RWHQ
EDQNHQ'HPJHJHQEHUZXUGHDXVNH\QHVLDQLVFKHU6LFKWHKHUGDV.UHGLWYROXPHQRGHUGHU
ODQJIULVWLJH =LQV DOV =ZLVFKHQ]LHO HPSIRKOHQ 0D\HU HUVWHUHV ZHLO GLH *HOGPHQJH
DOVQLFKWJXWVWHXHUEDURGHULQYDULDEOHU5HODWLRQ]XU*WHUQDFKIUDJHJHVHKHQZXUGHOHW]WH
UHUZHLOGLH7UDQVPLVVLRQEHUGLH.UHGLWNRVWHQYHUODXIH
'HUOHW]WJHQDQQWH3XQNWERWHLQHRIIHQH)ODQNHIUGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH.ULWLNGLHJHVWW]W
DXI,UYLQJ)LVKHUV1RPLQDO]LQVWKHRUHPGHQ.H\QHVLDQHUQYRUZHUIHQNRQQWHGLHVHYHUZHFK
VHOWHQ 1RPLQDO XQG 5HDO]LQV )ULHGPDQ 6WHLJHQGH 1RPLQDO]LQVHQ N|QQHQ /LTXLGL
WlWVHQJSlVVHRGHUDEHU,QIODWLRQVHUZDUWXQJHQDQ]HLJHQXQGVR]X)HKOUHDNWLRQHQGHU=LQV
SROLWLNIKUHQ%HLQlKHUHU%HWUDFKWXQJZLUG)LVKHUV=LQVWKHRUHPDEHUIUDJZUGLJZHQQPDQ
QDFK GHQ 2SWLRQHQ GHU *HOGYHUP|JHQVEHVLW]HU EHL GURKHQGHU ,QIODWLRQ IUDJW .DOGRU KLHOWGDV7KHRUHPIUIDOVFKZHLOVlPWOLFKH)LQDQ]DVVHWVXQWHUGHU,QIODWLRQOHLGHQXQG
IROJOLFKNHLQ$XVVWLHJDXVGHU%RQGKDOWXQJ]XHUZDUWHQVHLGHUGDQQLP0RGHOO]XU=LQVVWHL
,Q HLQHU YHUNU]WHQ 5HGHZHLVH ZXUGH GHU .H\QHVLDQLVPXV0RQHWDULVPXV6WUHLW RIW GDUDXI ]XJH
VSLW]W RE QXQ GLH *HOGPHQJH RGHU GHU ODQJIULVWLJH =LQV GDV ,QVWUXPHQW GHU *HOGSROLWLN VHLQ VROOH
.H\QHVXQG)ULHGPDQZXWHQMHGRFKEHLGHGD1RWHQEDQNSROLWLNLQGHU3UD[LVVWHWVEHUGLH0DQLSX
ODWLRQGHUNXU]IULVWLJHQ=LQVHQYHUOlXIW%HLGHEHWUDFKWHWHQLQLKUHQPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHQ0RGHOOHQMH
GRFKYHUHLQIDFKHQGGLH*HOGPHQJHDOVH[RJHQYHUlQGHUEDUH3ROLF\9DULDEOH*RRGKDUW)ULHG
PDQV(PSIHKOXQJDXFKSUDNWLVFKGLH*HOGPHQJHDOV,QVWUXPHQWYDULDEOHHLQ]XVHW]HQLVWZHJHQSUR
EOHPDWLVFKHU1HEHQZLUNXQJHQQXUNXU]]HLWLJSUDNWL]LHUWZRUGHQVX
JHUXQJ IKUW .DOGRU HUZlKQW QLFKW H[SOL]LW GLH 0|JOLFKNHLW HLQHU 8PRULHQWLHUXQJ ]XJXQVWHQ
YRQ5HDODNWLYDDEHU+DUURGIIZLHVDXIGLHHQJHQ0lUNWHIUP|JOLFKH5HDOREMHNWH
KLQ GLH EHL ,QIODWLRQVHUZDUWXQJHQ VRIRUW 3UHLVVWHLJHUXQJHQ SURGX]LHUHQ 'HU $QOHJHU ]DKOW
GDQQEHUHLWVLP.DXISUHLVGHQ,QIODWLRQVYHUOXVWGHPHUGXUFKGHQUHFKW]HLWLJHQ9HUNDXIYRQ
%RQGV]XHQWJHKHQKRIIW6WHLQGO.UHJHO
Es ist schwierig, aus dieser [Fishers] Theorie [...] einen Sinn abzuleiten, weil es nicht klar ist, ob
die &Auml;nderung im Geldwert als vorausgesehen oder nicht vorausgesehen angenommen wird. Es
gibt keinen Ausweg aus dem Dilemma, da&szlig;, wenn sie nicht vorausgesehen wird, sie keinen
Einflu&szlig; auf die laufenden Angelegenheiten haben wird; w&auml;hrend, wenn sie vorausgesehen wird,
die Preise von bestehenden G&uuml;tern sofort so berichtigt werden, da&szlig; die Vorteile, Geld zu halten
und G&uuml;ter zu halten, sich wieder ausgleichen.
John Maynard Keynes (1936: 120)
'LH,GHHGHQ.DSLWDOPDUNW]LQVDOV=ZLVFKHQ]LHOGHU*HOGSROLWLN]XYHUZHQGHQLVWXQDEKlQ
JLJ YRQ GHP 6LJQDOSUREOHP EHL ,QIODWLRQ DXFK EHL .H\QHVLDQHUQ DXV GHU 0RGH JHNRPPHQ
'HU*UXQGOLHJWDOOJHPHLQLQGHU8QWHUVFKHLGXQJ]ZLVFKHQ*HOGYHUVRUJXQJXQG.UHGLWYHUVRU
JXQJGLHXQWHUVFKLHGOLFKH|NRQRPLVFKH9RUJlQJHEHVFKUHLEHQDXIXQWHUVFKLHGOLFKHQ0lUN
WHQ DEODXIHQ XQG HQWVSUHFKHQG DXFK JHOGSROLWLVFK YRQHLQDQGHU HQWNRSSHOW ZHUGHQ VROOWHQ
XPGLH$OORNDWLRQVIXQNWLRQGHV.DSLWDOPDUNWHVQLFKW]XEHHLQWUlFKWLJHQ
9HUIROJXQJHLQHU:DFKVWXPVUHJHOIUGLH*HOGPHQJH
'LHVH 3ROLWLNUHJHO LVW HLQH XQPLWWHOEDUH .RQVHTXHQ] DXV GHU 'LDJQRVH HLQHU VWDELOHQ *HOG
QDFKIUDJH(VKDQGHOWVLFKMHGRFKZHQLJHUXPGDV.RQ]HSWHLQHUDNWLYHQ6WHXHUXQJGHVQR
PLQDOHQ 6R]LDOSURGXNWV DOV XP HLQH SDVVLYH 6WUDWHJLH ]XU 9HUPHLGXQJ YRQ 3ROLWLNIHKOHUQ
)ULHGPDQ HPSIDKO HLQH *HOGPHQJHQUHJHO JHUDGH ZHLO HLQH IHVWH PHFKDQLVFKH %H
]LHKXQJ]ZLVFKHQ*HOGPHQJHXQG(LQNRPPHQIHKOWXQGIU%UXQQHUZDUHQJU|H
UH 6W|UXQJHQ YRU DOOHP DXI GDV HUUDWLVFKH 9HUKDOWHQ GHU 1RWHQEDQNHQ ]XUFN]XIKUHQ GLH
DXI GHU %DVLV IDOVFKHU 0DNURPRGHOOH HLQH LQWHUYHQWLRQLVWLVFKH P|JOLFKHUZHLVH JXWJHPHLQWH
3ROLWLNSUDNWL]LHUHQ$XFKGHU5DGFOLIIH5HSRUWKDWWHVLFKVFKRQPLWGHU,GHHHLQHU*HOGPHQ
JHQVWHXHUXQJEHVFKlIWLJW(UZLHVLKQQLFKWQXUDXIJUXQGGHU]XHQJHQ3HUVSHNWLYHLP+LQ
EOLFN DXI GHQ /LTXLGLWlWVVWDWXV GHU )LQDQ]PlUNWH ]XUFN ,Q GHU IROJHQGHQ 3DVVDJH GUFNW
VLFK NHLQHVZHJV &plusmn; ZLH EOLFKHUZHLVH LQWHUSUHWLHUW &plusmn; OHGLJOLFK HLQ 0RQH\ GRHV QRW PDWWHU
DXVVRQGHUQHLQH:DUQXQJYRUDNWLYLVWLVFKHQ)HLQVWHXHUXQJVYHUVXFKHQGLHVHQWVSULFKWELV
KHXWHDXFKGHUPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ/HKUHGHU=HQWUDOEDQNNXQVW
For the future, we envisage the use of monetary measures as not in ordinary times playing
other than a subordinate part in guiding the development of the economy. [...] Monetary mea-
6HLQHVSlWHUH.ODJHGDUEHUGDGLH1RWHQEDQNHUVLFKXQIlKLJ]HLJWHQGLH*HOGPHQJHZLUNOLFK
H[RJHQ]XKDOWHQYHUDQODWH.DOGRU[YL]XGHUSROHPLVFKHQ)UDJHREGLH4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH
QXUEHLNRPSHWHQWHQ1RWHQEDQNHUQJHOWH
sures cannot alone be relied upon to keep in nice balance an economy subject to major strains
from both without and within. Monetary measures can help, but that is all. [...] We do not find
any solution of the problem of influencing total demand in more violent manipulation of interest
Radcliffe-Report (1959: &sect;&sect; 511, 514)
'LH DQ GHQ =LQVHQ RULHQWLHUWH /LTXLGLWlWVSROLWLN NDQQ &plusmn; DQDORJ ]XU *HOGPHQJHQSROLWLN &plusmn; QXU
JOREDO ZLUNHQ 9HUVXFKH HLQHU VHOHNWLYHQ .RQWUROOH EHVWLPPWHU )LQDQ]LHUXQJVNDQlOH ZUGHQ
QXU WHPSRUlUH ,QHIIL]LHQ]HQ 8PJHKXQJVYHUVXFKH XQG VFKOLHOLFK QHXH )LQDQ]LHUXQJVIRU
PHQHQWVWHKHQODVVHQ'HU5DGFOLIIH5HSRUWJHKWLQVRZHLWNRQIRUPPLWPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ3R
VLWLRQHQXQGDQWL]LSLHUWGLH)LQDQ]LQQRYDWLRQHQGLHVSlWHULP*HIROJHGHUUHVWULNWLYHQ*HOG
PHQJHQSROLWLNLQHLQLJHQ/lQGHUQDXIWUDWHQ
The supply of money – whatever that may be made to mean – is not by itself a reliable policy
measure, and the authorities must seek rather to influence the general liquidity situation by operating on rates of interest. Given this approach regulation of the banks is required not because
they are 'creators of money' but because they are the biggest lenders at the shortest (most liquid) end of the range of credit markets. [However] any severely restrictive control of these operations is certain, over a period of time, to be defeated by the development of rival institutions;
during the interim, the community will have suffered loss by interference with the most efficient
channels of lending.
The obstruction to particular channels of finance have had no effect on the pressure of total demand, but have made for much inefficiency in financial organisation.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: &sect;&sect; 504, 469)
0HOW]HUNRQVWDWLHUWHVSlWHUXQWHU9HUZHLVDXIModigliani (1977)GDV)HVWKDOWHQDQHL
QHU GLVNUHWLRQlUHQ =HQWUDOEDQNSROLWLN VHL GLH OHW]WH %DVWLRQ JHZHVHQ GLH HLQ JHVFKODJHQHU
.H\QHVLDQLVPXVKDEHDXIUHFKWHUKDOWHQZROOHQ&quot;Keynesians began by minimizing the role of
monetary policy but shifted eventually to highlighting the use of monetary policy for shortterm stabilization&quot; (0HOW]HU25). Nun sei aber allerorten eine klare Tendenz zugunsten
einer regelorientierten Politik festzustellen, die im klassischen monet&auml;ren System schon immer dominiert habe. Die Strategien des Inflation Targeting und der Taylor Rule werden
merkw&uuml;rdigerweise als Umsetzung monetaristischer Prinzipien gedeutet, obwohl (oder gerade weil?) hier die Notenbankpolitik immer wieder neuen Marktbedingungen angepa&szlig;t werden
m&uuml;sse, zu denen auch Schwankungen der Umlaufgeschwindigkeit (!) geh&ouml;rten.
Meltzer erw&auml;hnt jedoch nicht, da&szlig; in diesen modernen Politikstrategien die Geldmenge
als endogene Gr&ouml;&szlig;e gesehen wird. Damit schlie&szlig;t sich der Kreis zur oben skizzierten Debat
=LWQDFK.DOGRUI
Das hier gegebene Beispiel des Goldstandards ist dabei nicht &uuml;berzeugend, da dieses System ge-
rade erst unter der F&uuml;hrerschaft einer diskretion&auml;ren, allerdings klar am externen Gleichgewicht ausgerichteten Zinspolitik der Bank von England seine Bl&uuml;tezeit erlebte (Eichengreen 1987, Spahn 2001:
97ff).
Allerdings glaubt Meltzer auch nach den Erfahrungen in den USA noch an eine stabile Geldnach-
fragefunktion.
te, in der Kaldor (1982: 21f) JHJHQ )ULHGPDQ JHZHQGHW die zeitweilige 6WDELOLWlW GHU *HOG
QDFKIUDJHHEHQIDOOVPLWGHU(QGRJHQLWlWGHU*HOGPHQJHHUNOlUWKDWWH'LH.DXVDOLWlWYHUODXIH
NRQWUlU]XUTXDQWLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQ6LFKWYRP1RPLQDOHLQNRPPHQ]XPPRQHWlUHQ)LQDQ]LH
UXQJVYROXPHQ)ULHGPDQVHPSLULVFKHV5HVXOWDWHLQHUGHU(LQNRPPHQVHQWZLFNOXQJYRUDXV
ODXIHQGHQ*HOGPHQJHOLHVLFKDXFKL6GHUNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ7KHRULHHUNOlUHQ7RELQ
*RRGKDUW ,Q PRGHUQHU 6LFKWZHLVH JHOWHQ ,QIODWLRQ XQG *HOGPHQJHQZDFKVWXP EHLGH
DOVHQGRJHQH*U|HQGHVPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHQ3UR]HVVHVZHGHULP+LQEOLFNDXIGLH)UDJH
GHU.DXVDOLWlWQRFKLQ%H]XJDXIGLH5ROOHGHU*HOGPHQJHDOV=ZLVFKHQ]LHOLVWQRFKHLQH'R
PLQDQ]PRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ*HGDQNHQJXWVDXV]XPDFKHQ$WWKHFHQWHURIWKLVFRQVHQVXVLVD
UHMHFWLRQRIWKHTXDQWLW\WKHRU\$OYDUH]YJO6YHQVVRQ
$EOHKQXQJHLQHV3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ7UDGHRII
0RQHWDULVWHQXQG1HXNODVVLNHUIHLHUQGLH.ULWLNGHUNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ.RQ]HSWLRQHLQHUZLUW
VFKDIWVSROLWLVFKQXW]EDUHQ3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ5HODWLRQDOVHLQHQLKUHUJU|WHQ(UIROJH1DFKGHP
6DPXHOVRQ6RORZHLQH,QNDXIQDKPHK|KHUHU,QIODWLRQVUDWHQLP,QWHUHVVHHLQHUQLHGUL
JHUHQ $UEHLWVORVHQTXRWH HPSIRKOHQ KlWWHQ VHLHQ GLH :HLFKHQ LQ GHU ZHVWOLFKHQ :HOW LQ
5LFKWXQJDXI,QIODWLRQJHVWHOOWZRUGHQ6DUJHQWI)ULHGPDQVEHUKPWH3UHVL
GHQWLDO$GGUHVVPDUNLHUWGDQQGHQ3XQNWGHU$ENHKUYRQHLQHPYHUKlQJQLVYROOHQ:HJGHU
ODQJIULVWLJLQHLQHU=HUUWWXQJGHUQDWLRQDOHQ:lKUXQJHQJHHQGHWKlWWH
/DLGOHUKDWVRZRKOLP5DGFOLIIH5HSRUWYRQLP5HSRUWGHU86&amp;RPPLVVLRQRQ
0RQH\DQG&amp;UHGLWYRQXQGLP5HSRUWGHUNDQDGLVFKHQ5R\DO&amp;RPPLVVLRQRQ%DQNLQJ
DQG)LQDQFHYRQGDV7KHPDHLQHV=LHONRQIOLNWV]ZLVFKHQ9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJXQG3UHLV
VWDELOLWlW JHIXQGHQ DOOHUGLQJV ZXUGH VWHWV DXI HLQHQ JURHQ .RUULGRU NRQVWDQWHU /|KQH XQG
3UHLVHKLQJHZLHVHQLQKHXWLJHU'LNWLRQDXIGHQ8QEHVWLPPWKHLWVEHUHLFKGHU1$,58$EHU
VFKRQ6DPXHOVRQ6RORZJHEHQWDWVlFKOLFKNHLQH(PSIHKOXQJHLQHQNXU]IULVWLJJHJH
EHQHQ 7UDGHRII DXV]XQXW]HQ (UZDUWXQJVEHGLQJW N|QQH VLFK GLH 3KLOOLSV.XUYH LQ EHLGH
5LFKWXQJHQ YHUVFKLHEHQ 6LH VDKHQ DXFK EHUHLWV GD HLQH DQKDOWHQG VFKZDFKH %HVFKlIWL
JXQJ]XHLQHP$XIEDXGHUVWUXNWXUHOOHQ$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWIKUWXQGGDUEHUGLH3KLOOLSV.XUYH
QDFKUHFKWVYHUODJHUWLQKHXWLJHU'LNWLRQGHU+\VWHUHVLV(IIHNW$XFK-RKQVRQ
VSUDFK]ZDUGLH,GHHHLQHV:RKOIDKUWVRSWLPXPVDXIGHU.XUYHDQZDUQWHMHGRFKYRULKUHU,Q
VWDELOLWlWZHQQPDQHLQHQEHVWLPPWHQ3XQNWIL[LHUHQZROOH
'LH9RUVWHOOXQJHLQHV7UDGHRIIVFKHLQW]XPLQGHVWGLHHQJOLVFKH:LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLNLQGHQ
HU XQG HU -DKUHQ QLFKW EHKHUUVFKW ]X KDEHQ Laidler 1976, 1989, 2003, 1HOVRQ 1HOVRQ1LNRORY'DV%LOGHLQHU3KLOOLSV.XUYHZDUQLFKWSUlVHQW9LHOPHKUZXUGHQ,QIOD
.DOGRU[YLLZHQGHWVLFKPLWGHU'LDJQRVHHLQHUHQGRJHQHQ*HOGPHQJHDXFKH[SOL]LWJHJHQ
.H\QHV2QFHZHUHDOLVHWKDWWKHVXSSO\RIPRQH\LVHQGRJHQRXVLWYDULHVDXWRPDWLFDOO\ZLWKWKHGH
PDQGDWDJLYHQUDWHRILQWHUHVW
OLTXLGLW\SUHIHUHQFH
DQGWKHEHKDYLRXURIWKHYHORFLW\RIFLUFXODWLRQ
FHDVHVWREHLPSRUWDQW
WLRQXQG$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWDOVYRQHLQDQGHUXQDEKlQJLJH3UREOHPHEHJULIIHQGLHDXFKPLWXQ
WHUVFKLHGOLFKHQ.RQ]HSWHQEHNlPSIWZXUGHQ$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWPLWPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHU1DFK
IUDJHSROLWLN,QIODWLRQPLWPLNUR|NRQRPLVFKHU(LQNRPPHQVSROLWLN0RQHWDULVWHQVDKHQGDPDOV
XQGVHKHQKHXWHGLH=XRUGQXQJYRQ0LNURXQG0DNURSROLWLN]XGLHVHQEHLGHQ3UREOHPJH
QDX XPJHNHKUW 0LW GHU $XVEOHQGXQJ PRQHWlUHU =XVDPPHQKlQJH JDOW GLH ,QIODWLRQ DOV HLQ
OHW]WOLFKLQVWLWXWLRQHOOHV3UREOHPDQWDJRQLVWLVFKHU9HUWHLOXQJVNRQIOLNWH1DFKGHPGLH$XIJD
EHGHU*ROGELQGXQJGHV'ROODUVVFKOLHOLFKHLQHJHZLVVHSV\FKRORJLVFKH5LJLGLWlWGHU,QIOD
WLRQVHUZDUWXQJHQEHVHLWLJWKDWWHHVNDOLHUWHGLH,QIODWLRQXQGGLH:LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLN]HLJWHVLFK
KLOIORV.DOGRU[
3RSXODULVLHUW ZXUGH GLH 3KLOOLSV.XUYH GXUFK LKUH :LGHUOHJXQJ GXUFK )ULHGPDQ .XU]XQGPLWWHOIULVWLJGLHQWHVLHDOVQW]OLFKHU%DXVWHLQ]XU6FKOLHXQJVHLQHV&amp;RPPRQ0R
GHOGDQXQGDV6SOLWWLQJ3UREOHPGHU$XIWHLOXQJPRQHWlUHU,PSXOVHLQ5HDOXQG1RPLQDOHI
IHNWHGXUFKGLH(ODVWL]LWlWGHU$QJHERWVIXQNWLRQJHO|VWZHUGHQNRQQWH)ULHGPDQDYJO
7RELQ/DQJIULVWLJYHUVFKZLQGHWVLHIUHLOLFKE]ZZLUGYHUWLNDOXQGPQGHWVRLQGDV
6WDQGDUGHUJHEQLVGHU4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH,P3XQNWGHU9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJJLEWHVNHLQHQ'LV
VHQV]ZLVFKHQ)ULHGPDQXQG.H\QHV
Mit der Zunahme der wirksamen Nachfrage nimmt [...] die Besch&auml;ftigung zu, [...] bis ein Punkt
kommt, an dem keine &uuml;bersch&uuml;ssige Arbeit zum dann bestehenden Reallohn verf&uuml;gbar ist. [...]
Die Bedingungen des strengen Gleichgewichts erfordern daher, da&szlig; die L&ouml;hne und Preise [...]
im gleichen Verh&auml;ltnis wie die Ausgabe steigen, wenn die [...] Menge der Produktion und der
Besch&auml;ftigung [...] unver&auml;ndert bleiben soll. Das hei&szlig;t, wir haben einen Zustand erreicht, in welchem der rohen Mengentheorie des Geldes [...] v&ouml;llig gen&uuml;gt wird; denn die Produktion &auml;ndert
sich nicht, und die Preise steigen im genauen Verh&auml;ltnis zu MV [d.h. zur umlaufenden Geldmenge].
John Maynard Keynes (1936: 245)
:DU GHU 3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ7UDGHRII ZLUNOLFK GLH ZHLWKLQ DN]HSWLHUWH 9RUVWHOOXQJ GHU SRVWNH\
QHVLDQLVFKHQ gNRQRPHQ .DOPEDFK &quot; )U GHQ %HUHLFK GHU 8QWHUEHVFKlIWLJXQJ
,QEH]XJDXI
.RVWHQGUXFN
,QIODWLRQEHVWHKWIU/HXWHGLHVRQDLYVLQGGDV.RQ]HSWEHUKDXSW]X
DN]HSWLHUHQGLHQDKH,LHJHQGHZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH(PSIHKOXQJLQGHPHEHQVRQDLYHQ9RUVFKODJGDV
'UFNHQ]XEHHQGHQLQGHPPDQHQWZHGHUDQGDV$QVWDQGVJHIKOGHU'UFNHQGHQDSSHOOLHUWRGHUVLH
ZHQQQ|WLJVR]LDOHU'LV]LSOLQLHUXQJDXVVHW]W'DVLQWHOOHNWXHOOH$XIEOKHQGLHVHVSULPLWLYHQ$SSHOOV]XU
9HUVSRWWXQJ|NRQRPLVFKHU*HVHW]PlLJNHLWHQGXUFKVR]LDOH.RQYHQWLRQHQXQG%HVFKUlQNXQJHQHU
IROJW LQ GHU IHLHUOLFKHQ )HVWVWHOOXQJ GHU 1RWZHQGLJNHLW HLQHU (LQNRPPHQVSROLWLN GXUFK DQJHVHKHQH
gNRQRPHQ-RKQVRQYJO.DOGRU[L(LQHJHZLVVH5HFKWIHUWLJXQJIUGLH6LFKWZHLVH
GHU,QIODWLRQDOV.RVWHQGUXFNSKlQRPHQOlWVLFKIRUPDODXVGHU0RGHOOLHUXQJULJLGHUGKQXUVSUXQJ
KDIWVLFKlQGHUQGHU/RKQHXQG3UHLVHDEOHLWHQ,QGLHVHP)DOOJLEWHVNHLQHNRQWLQXLHUOLFKDQVWHLJHQGH
$QJHERWVIXQNWLRQ,QIODWLRQEHVWHKWGDQQLQHLQHU$EIROJHYRQ$XIZlUWVYHUODJHUXQJHQGLHVHUKRUL]RQWD
OHQ.XUYH
&amp;DVVHOIKDWWHGHPJHJHQEHUQRFKJHJODXEWGDYRP$XVJDQJVSXQNWGHU4XDQWLWlWV
WKHRULHKHUNHLQH/|VXQJGLHVHU)UDJHP|JOLFKVHL:HOFKH :LUNXQJHQ HLQH 9HUPHKUXQJ GHU *HOG
PHQJHDXIGLH8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLWGHV*HOGHVDXIGLH$XVGHKQXQJGHV*HEUDXFKVYRQ%DQN]DK
OXQJVPLWWHOQRGHUDXIGHQ8PIDQJGHV5HDOXPVDW]HVKDWXQGZHOFKHDOVRGLHVFKOLHOLFKH:LUNXQJ
DXIGDVDOOJHPHLQH3UHLVQLYHDXVHLQZLUGGDVVLQGDOOHV)UDJHQGLHVLFKEHUKDXSWQLFKWPLWGHQ0LW
WHOQGHU7KHRULHEHKDQGHOQODVVHQ
PDJGLHVZHQQPDQDQHLQH'\QDPLVLHUXQJGHU.H\QHVVFKHQ$QJHERWVIXQNWLRQGHQNW]X
WUHIIHQ&plusmn; DOOHUGLQJVKDWWH)ULHGPDQEHUGLHVHQ%HUHLFKJDUQLFKWJHVSURFKHQ)UGDV)HOG
GHU hEHUEHVFKlIWLJXQJ MHGRFK NDQQ GLHV NDXP JHOWHQ 'LH EHVRQGHUV LQ (QJODQG WUDGLHUWH
hEHU]HXJXQJ GHU .H\QHVLDQHU ZDU MD JHUDGH GD GHU .DSLWDOLVPXV GXUFK 8QWHUEHVFKlIWL
JXQJFKDUDNWHULVLHUWVHLLQVRZHLWVWDQGGHU%HUHLFKOLQNVYRQGHU3KLOOLSV.XUYHQLFKWLP0LW
WHOSXQNW GHV ,QWHUHVVHV (V JDE DXFK NHLQHQ WKHRUHWLVFKHQ *UXQG GLH %HVFKlIWLJXQJ QRFK
EHUGHQ9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJVSXQNWKLQDXV]XVWHLJHUQ'DVVSlWHUYRQ%DUUR*RUGRQ
JHQDQQWH $UJXPHQW HLQHV H[WHUQHQ (IIHNWV GHU GLH LQGLYLGXHOOH $UEHLWVDQJHERWVHQWVFKHL
GXQJQDFKXQWHQYHU]HUUHHQWVWDPPWHLQHUQHRNODVVLVFKZRKOIDKUWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQXQGVLFKHU
QLFKWHLQHUSRVWNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ*HGDQNHQZHOW
It is puzzling to find it put forward as a discovery that a higher inflation rate will not increase the
full-employment level of employment: Keynes and Keynesians would not have claimed otherwise. [...] The Lucasians, by denying the possibility of involuntary unemployment – indeed, they
profess not to know what it means – have given no reason why anyone should be interested in
their trade-off even if it existed. In fact, the world that they describe quite plainly needs no macro-policy. Keynesians were concerned with the problem of pushing the economy to its natural
rate, not beyond it. If the economy is already there, we can all go home.
Frank Hahn (1982: 74f)
)ULHGPDQKDWPLWVHLQHU3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ.ULWLNHLQHEHUIOVVLJH'LVNXVVLRQLQGHU|NR
QRPLVFKHQ 3URIHVVLRQ DXVJHO|VW XQG GLHV JHODQJ LKP DXFK QXU GHVKDOE ZHLO HU GHQ $XV
JDQJVSXQNWVHLQHU6FKLOGHUXQJQLFKWDOV9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJVRQGHUQDOVQDWUOLFKH5DWHGHU
$UEHLWVORVLJNHLW EH]HLFKQHWH .URPSKDUGW 6R SURYR]LHUWH HU GHQ :LGHUVSUXFK YRQ
PDQFKHQ .H\QHVLDQHUQ GLH YRU ODXWHU (QWUVWXQJ EHU GHQ DQJHEOLFKHQ $QJULII DXI LKUHQ
6lXOHQKHLOLJHQYHUVlXPWHQ)ULHGPDQV0RGHOOYRUDXVVHW]XQJHQJHQDX]XOHVHQ
$EHUDXFK)ULHGPDQNDQQPDQYRUZHUIHQGLH$OOJHPHLQH*OHLFKJHZLFKWVWKHRULHLP+LQ
EOLFNDXIGLHQDWUOLFKH5DWHGHU$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWQLFKWJHQDXJHQXJVWXGLHUW]XKDEHQ6RXQ
WHUVFKHLGHW 7RELQ DOOHLQ YLHU P|JOLFKH 'HILQLWLRQVP|JOLFKNHLWHQ GLHVHU 9DULDEOHQ GLH
NHLQHVZHJV]XVDPPHQIDOOHQPVVHQ(VNDQQVLFKXPGLH$UEHLWVORVHQUDWHKDQGHOQ
• GLHGLH,QIODWLRQNRQVWDQWKlOW
• EHLGHUNHLQHXQIUHLZLOOLJH8QWHUEHVFKlIWLJXQJEHVWHKW
• EHLGHUHLQHRSWLPDOH)DNWRUDOORNDWLRQKHUUVFKWRGHU
• EHLGHUGLH=DKOGHU$UEHLWVORVHQPLWGHU=DKOGHUIUHLHQ6WHOOHQEHUHLQVWLPPW
=XGHPJHEHHVNHLQH%HUHFKWLJXQJDQ]XQHKPHQGDGLHQDWUOLFKH5DWHGHU$UEHLWVORVLJ
NHLWXQDEKlQJLJYRQGHUYRUDQJHJDQJHQHQ$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWLVW7RELQ
6HOEVWGHUIU1HRNODVVLNHUXQYHUGlFKWLJHUH3KHOSV[[LYIGHU)ULHGPDQV
$N]HOHUDWLRQVWKHRUHP DQWL]LSLHUW KDWWH PRQLHUWH GDV QXQ DXIJHEDXWH 6FKLVPD ]ZLVFKHQ
VWUXNWXUHOOHU XQG NRQMXQNWXUHOOHU $UEHLWVORVLJNHLW XQG ZLHV ZLH 7RELQ GDUDXI KLQ GD HLQH
QDFKIUDJHEHGLQJWH %HVFKlIWLJXQJVVWHLJHUXQJ $OORNDWLRQ XQG (IIL]LHQ] YHUEHVVHUH XQG DXFK
GLHVWUXNWXUHOOH$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWYHUPLQGHUH,PEULJHQKDWWHVRJDU%UXQQHUD]X
JHVWDQGHQ 'LH (UZHLWHUXQJ GHU *HVDPWQDFKIUDJH EHVFKOHXQLJW GLH :LHGHUHLQJOLHGHUXQJ
GHU$UEHLWVORVHQ=ZDUKDWWHDXFK)ULHGPDQHLQHYDULDEOHQDWUOLFKHQ5DWHDXIJUXQGYRQPL
NUR|NRQRPLVFKLQVWLWXWLRQHOOHQ)DNWRUHQLP$XJHDEHULKUH$EKlQJLJNHLWYRQGHU PDNUR|NR
QRPLVFKHQ(QWZLFNOXQJXQWHUPLQLHUWGLH9RUVWHOOXQJGHU1$,58DOVHLQHPUHDOHQ$QNHUGHV
.RQMXQNWXUJHVFKHKHQV7KHOLYHKDQGRIKLVWRU\SURGXFHVDK\VWHUHVLVHIIHFWWKHWLPHSDWK
WRHTXLOLEULXPSDUWLDOO\VKDSHVWKDWHTXLOLEULXP&gt;@(YHU\GHSDUWXUHIURP HTXLOLEULXP SURGX
FHVLUUHYHUVLEOHHIIHFWVRIPDQ\NLQGV3KHOSV
$EQHLJXQJJHJHQ6WDDWVLQWHUYHQWLRQLVPXV
'LHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH/HKUHSURYR]LHUWHGHQ9RUZXUIHLQHULGHRORJLVFKHQ9RUHLQJHQRPPHQKHLW
IUGLH0DUNWJHVHOOVFKDIW1HOGQHU:HQQPDQDQHLQHPDUNWHQGRJHQH9ROOEHVFKlIWL
JXQJVWHQGHQ] JODXEW LVW DEHU HLQH UHODWLY JU|HUH ZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH 3UlIHUHQ] IU 3UHLV
VWDELOLWlW QDKHOLHJHQG XQG PX QLFKW LQWHUHVVHQVR]LRORJLVFK PLW HLQHU 3DUWHLQDKPH IU GLH
%HODQJHGHU%DQNHQXQG5HQWLHUV.DOGRU[[LI%KDGXUL6WHLQGOHUNOlUW ZHUGHQ
5LFKWLJ LVW GD 3RVWNH\QHVLDQHU PRQHWlUH $QWLLQIODWLRQVSROLWLN DOV GHVDVWURXV IRU JURZWK
HLQVFKlW]WHQ$FNOH\XQG&plusmn;HUIROJORV&plusmn;QDFKPLOGHUHQ0DQDKPHQVXFKWHQ1DFK
GHU $QHUNHQQXQJ GHV +\VWHUHVLV3UREOHPV LQ GHU :LVVHQVFKDIW XQG VHOEVW DXI 6HLWHQ GHU
%XQGHVEDQNVLQGGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH3UlIHUHQ]IUGDV*HOGZHUW]LHOXQGGHU*ODXEH
DQGLHODQJIULVWLJH1HXWUDOLWlWGHU*HOGSROLWLNVWlUNHU]XKLQWHUIUDJHQ$XFKLQNRPSHWHQWH:LUW
VFKDIWVSROLWLNHUYRUGHUHQ:LUNHQ0RQHWDULVWHQRIW]XUHFKWZDUQHQ N|QQHQEHL+\VWHUHVLV
PLW H[SDQVLYHQ 0DQDKPHQ *XWHV EHZLUNHQ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH 0RQHWDULVWV LW ZLOO PDNH QR
GLIIHUHQFH$FFRUGLQJWRWKHQRQ:DOUDVLDQYLHZLWZLOO/HWWKHJRYHUQPHQWWU\LW+DKQ
YJO%OLQGHU
'LH5FNJHZLQQXQJGHU:lKUXQJVKRKHLWGHU%XQGHVEDQN
(V LVW HUVWDXQOLFK GD GHU 0RQHWDULVPXV QLFKW ]XHUVW LQ VHLQHU WKHRUHWLVFKHQ +HLPDW GHQ
86$ZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKXPJHVHW]WZXUGHREZRKOKLHUJXWH%HGLQJXQJHQEHVWDQGHQKlWWHQ
GHUGLUHNWH(LQIOXVHLQHU6FK|SIHULQZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKHQ=HLWVFKULIWHQXQG0HGLHQHLQHODQ
JHNH\QHVLDQLVFKH7UDGLWLRQLQGHU:LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLNXQGLQVWUXPHQWHOOH9RUDXVVHW]XQJHQ]XU
*HOGPHQJHQVWHXHUXQJ $EHU LP HLJHQHQ /DQG JDOW GHU PRQHWDULVWLVFKH 3URSKHW RIIHQEDU
%UXQQHUHUNOlUWHGHQSROLWLVFKHQ5HL]GHV.H\QHVLDQLVPXVGDPLWGDGLHVHU5DWLRQDOLVLH
UXQJ XQG 'HFNPDQWHO IU DNWLRQLVWLVFKH 8PYHUWHLOXQJVSURMHNWH OLHIHUH 'HUDUWLJH (LQVFKlW]XQJHQ JD
EHQ GDV 0DWHULDO IU HLQHQ $IIHNW JHJHQ GDV :LUNHQ HLQHV VWDDWOLFKHQ /HYLDWKDQ $QGHUHUVHLWV NDQQ
PDQEHL0RQHWDULVWHQGXUFKDXVGLH%HUHLWVFKDIW]XP*ODXEHQDQDQGHUH$XWRULWlWHQHQWGHFNHQ(LQ
UHOLJL|VHV (OHPHQW OlW VLFK EHL )ULHGPDQV DNDGHPLVFKHP /HKUHU 6LPRQV ILQGHQ :H
QHHGWRGHVLJQDQGHVWDEOLVK&gt;@DPRQHWDU\V\VWHPJRRGHQRXJKVRWKDW&gt;@ZHPD\KROGWRLWXQUD
WLRQDOO\&plusmn; RQIDLWK&plusmn; DVDUHOLJLRQ)U.DOGRUZDUHQGLH0RQHWDULVWHQHLQHJURZLQJEDQGRI
HQWKXVLDVWVFRPELQLQJWKHIHUYRXURIHDUO\FKULVWLDQVZLWKWKHVXDYLW\DQGVHOOLQJSRZHURID0DGLVRQ
$YHQXHH[HFXWLYH
QRFKZHQLJHUVW]ZLVFKHQXQGJDEHVLQGHQ86$HLQHNXU]HPRQHWDULVWL
VFKH 3KDVH GHU *HOGSROLWLN %ODQFKDUG ]HLWJOHLFK ]X HLQHP lKQOLFKHQ ([SHULPHQW LQ
*UREULWDQQLHQ +HDOH\ 6WDWW GHVVHQ ZDU QHEHQ GHU 6FKZHL] 5LFK 'HXWVFK
ODQGGHU2UWDQGHPGHU0RQHWDULVPXVVHLQHHUVWHQSUDNWLVFKHQ7ULXPSKHIHLHUQNRQQWH(L
QH 6FKOVVHOUROOH ZLUG GHP .RQVWDQ]HU 6HPLQDU IU *HOGWKHRULH XQG *HOGSROLWLN ]XJHVSUR
FKHQ GDV VHLW ]X HLQHP 7UHIISXQNW IU :LVVHQVFKDIWOHU XQG 1RWHQEDQNHU YRQ EHLGHQ
6HLWHQGHV$WODQWLNVJHZRUGHQZDUZREHLGLHHUVWHQ.RQIHUHQ]HQYRQ865HIHUHQWHQGRPL
QLHUW ZDUHQ 9LHOH 7HLOQHKPHU ZXUGHQ VSlWHU ]X HLQIOXUHLFKHQ $NWHXUHQ LP )HOG YRQ :lK
UXQJXQG3ROLWLN'HU,QLWLDWRUGHV6HPLQDUV.DUO %UXQQHU YHUIROJWH ]ZHL =LHOH )UD
WLDQQL+DJHQ
• 6SH]LHOO LQ 'HXWVFKODQG IHKOH HLQH VROLGH 7KHRULH GHU *HOGSROLWLN ,P 9HUJOHLFK ]X GHQ
86$VHLHLQH5FNVWlQGLJNHLWLQ)RUVFKXQJXQG/HKUH]XEHNODJHQOHW]WHUHVDXFKZHJHQ
GHUW\SLVFKGHXWVFKHQ7UHQQXQJ]ZLVFKHQ:LUWVFKDIWVWKHRULHXQGSROLWLN
• $QJHVWUHEW ZDU GLH (QWZLFNOXQJ HLQHU $OWHUQDWLYH ]XP .H\QHVLDQLVPXV GLH *HOGSROLWLN
VROOWH ]X HLQHP ZHQLJHU DNWLYLVWLVFKHQ PHKU ]XNXQIWVRULHQWLHUWHQ ODQJIULVWLJHQ .XUV PLW
SULPlUHU 2ULHQWLHUXQJ DXI GLH *HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW EHZHJW ZHUGHQ 7KH HQWLUH WKUXVW RI WKH
FRQIHUHQFHZDVWRJHWWKH(XURSHDQVWRWKLQNRIWKHLUSUREOHPVLQWHUPVRIVWDEOHJURZWK
UDWHVRIWKHPRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHV:ROPDQ
'LHVH3XQNWHHUNOlUHQMHGRFKQLFKWZDUXPJHUDGHGHXWVFKHXQG6FKZHL]HU1RWHQEDQNHUVR
EHHLQGUXFNWYRP6HPLQDUZDUHQGHVVHQ$NWLYLWlWHQYRQGHQEULJHQHWDEOLHUWHQgNRQRPHQ
LQ 'HXWVFKODQG ]XQlFKVW PHKU RGHU ZHQLJHU DPVLHUW ]XU .HQQWQLV JHQRPPHQ ZXUGHQ
5LFKWHU'HVKDOEPXHWZDVZHLWHUDXVJHKROWZHUGHQ
=XUVWDELOLWlWVSROLWLVFKHQ9RUJHVFKLFKWH
$XIGHQHUVWHQ%OLFNN|QQWH'HXWVFKODQGVHLWGHU:lKUXQJVUHIRUPYRQDOVHLQIUXFKWED
UHU %RGHQ IU GLH PRQHWDULVWLVFKH %RWVFKDIW HUVFKHLQHQ 0LW GHP REOLJDWHQ +LQZHLV DXI GLH
2UGR6FKXOH ZLUG EHWRQW GD KLHU VFKRQ LPPHU *HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW DOV RUGQXQJVSROLWLVFKHV
XQGQLFKWEORVWDELOLWlWVSROLWLVFKHV3UREOHPJHVHKHQZRUGHQVHL,VVLQJ-HGRFKJLEW
GLHDXVGHU5HWURVSHNWLYHHWZDVEHNOHPPHQGH:HOWYRQ(XFNHQV2UGQXQJVSULQ]LSLHQZHQLJ
KHU ZDV ]X HLQHU WKHRUHWLVFKHQ )XQGLHUXQJ GHU *HOGSROLWLN JHQXW]W ZHUGHQ N|QQWH =ZDU
'LH'XUFKVHW]XQJGHV0RQHWDULVPXVLQGHUDNDGHPLVFKHQ/DQGVFKDIWGHU86$ZLUGEOLFKHUZHLVH
HUVWPLWGHUYRQ/XFDVEHJUQGHWHQ6FKXOHGHU7KHRULHUDWLRQDOHU(UZDUWXQJHQYHUNQSIW=ZDU
EH]HLFKQHWH7RELQGLHVH6FKXOHDOV0RQHWDULVP0DUN,,MHGRFKGDUIQLFKWEHUVHKHQZHUGHQ
GDSULQ]LSLHOODXFKHLQHNH\QHVLDQLVFKH7KHRULHUDWLRQDOHU(UZDUWXQJHQP|JOLFKLVWZHLOHLQH(UZDU
WXQJVK\SRWKHVHNHLQHVSH]LILVFKH7KHRULHEHJUQGHQNDQQVRQGHUQLP.RQWH[WHLQHUYRUDEIRUPXOLHU
WHQ7KHRULHVWHKW5LHVHYJO0DGGRFN&amp;DUWHU+DKQ
6HLQ(LQWUHWHQIUHLQHQ:DUHQJHOGVWDQGDUGXQGGLHKLVWRULVFKVFKLHIH(UNOlUXQJPRQHWlUHU,QVWD
ELOLWlW&plusmn; %DQNHQVHLHQVHLWGHP-DKUKXQGHUW]X0Q]VWlWWHQJHZRUGHQGKGLHJHRUGQHWH(QW
VWHKXQJGHV*HOGDXVGHU:DUHVHLGXUFKGDV.UHGLWJHOGJHVW|UWZRUGHQ(XFNHQ&plusmn; GLV
TXDOLIL]LHUHQLKQDOVP|JOLFKHQVSLULWXVUHFWRUHLQHUPRQHWlUHQ6WDELOLWlWVSROLWLNYJO5LFKWHU
SOlGLHUWHDXFK(XFNHQIU5HJHOELQGXQJHQDEHUDXVHLQHPWLHIHQ9HUWUDXHQLQGLH.RPSH
WHQ]XQG$XWRULWlWGHV6WDDWHVZlKUHQG)ULHGPDQJHLVWLJHKHUPLWGHPDQDUFKLVFKHQ(OH
PHQW LQ +D\HNV 'HQNHQ YHUZDQGW LVW 'LH 2UGR6FKXOH EHI|UGHUWH MHQH $EVFKRWWXQJ ]ZL
VFKHQZLUWVFKDIWVWKHRUHWLVFKHUXQGSROLWLVFKHU$QDO\VHGLHYRQGHQ0RQHWDULVWHQJHUDGHIU
GLH5FNVWlQGLJNHLWGHUGHXWVFKHQPRQHWlUHQgNRQRPLHYHUDQWZRUWOLFKJHPDFKWZXUGH
)UGHQ:LVVHQVFKDIWOLFKHQ%HLUDWEHLGHU9HUZDOWXQJIU:LUWVFKDIWJLQJHVXPGLH
PRQHWlUH8QWHUVWW]XQJGHU(LQJOLHGHUXQJGHU$UEHLWVORVHQ5HJHOELQGXQJHQIUGLH*HOG
PHQJHJDOWHQDOVVW|UHQG'LHGHXWVFKH*HOGSROLWLNVWHFNWHPHQWDOQRFKLQGHQ:XU]HOQGHV
*ROGVWDQGDUGVGLH%DQN'HXWVFKHU/lQGHUEHNDQQWHVLFKLQLKUHQIUKHQ*HVFKlIWVEHULFKWHQ
]X HLQHU =LQVSROLWLN JHPl GHQ NODVVLVFKHQ 6SLHOUHJHOQ GLHVHV 6\VWHPV 5LFKWHU I
I'LH1RUPHLQHU9HUWHLGLJXQJGHV:HFKVHONXUVHVVWDQGDQHUVWHU6WHOOHVLHGUIWHDXFK
EHLGHU)RUPXOLHUXQJGHUJHOGSROLWLVFKHQ$XIJDEH:lKUXQJVVLFKHUXQJ3DWHJHVWDQGHQKD
EHQ 'DV =LHO 3UHLVVWDELOLWlW ZDU LQ GLHVHU *HGDQNHQZHOW ]ZHLWUDQJLJ %DQNSUlVLGHQW
9RFNH VFKLHQ QRFK DQ GLH %DQNLQJ7KHRULH ]X JODXEHQ XQG HUODJ GHU 5HDO%LOOV)DOODF\ (U
ZDQGWHVLFKJHJHQGHQ%HJULIIGHULPSRUWLHUWHQ,QIODWLRQGLHDXIHLQHU*HOGYHUPHKUXQJLQ
IROJHHLQHV([SRUWEHUVFKXVVHVEHUXKWPLWGHP$UJXPHQWGDGLHVGXUFK*ROGJHGHFNWHV
NRQYHUWLEOHV*HOGVHL(PPLQJHU9RFNHVWUlXEWHVLFKJHJHQGLH$QHUNHQQXQJHL
QHV=LHONRQIOLNWVHUZROOWHZHGHU$XIZHUWXQJQRFK$QSDVVXQJVLQIODWLRQ]XODVVHQ6HLQ1DFK
IROJHU%OHVVLQJPHLQWH1DFKIUDJHVRJ XQG .RVWHQGUXFN N|QQWHQ ]ZDU WKHRUHWLVFK QLFKW RKQH .UHGLWSROLWLN ,QIODWLRQ EHZLUNHQ DEHU EHL IOH[LEOHU 8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW XQG IH
VWHQ:HFKVHONXUVHQVHLGHU,QIODWLRQVLPSRUWQLFKW]XYHUKLQGHUQXQGGHU:HFKVHONXUVGUIH
QLFKWDQJHWDVWHWZHUGHQ)ULKQJDOW,QIODWLRQSDDOVEHVVHUDOV'0DUN$XIZHU
WXQJ+ROWIUHULFKYJO(PPLQJHU1HXPDQQ
'LH:HFKVHONXUVRULHQWLHUXQJGHU*HOGSROLWLNLVWEHPHUNHQVZHUWJHUDGHZHLOGLH]ZHLPDOL
JH=HUVW|UXQJGHUGHXWVFKHQ*HOGYHUP|JHQLQGHU%HY|ONHUXQJ]XHLQHUDXVJHVSURFKHQHQ
,QIODWLRQVDYHUVLRQJHIKUWKDWWH'LHVZXUGHDXFKYRQ6HLWHQGHU3ROLWLNLPPHUZLHGHUWKHPD
WLVLHUW$EHULQGHU3UD[LVNDPHVYRUDOOHPGDUDXIDQGDGLHGHXWVFKH,QIODWLRQVUDWHQLHGUL
JHUDOVLP$XVODQGZDU'HUZlKUXQJVSROLWLVFKH0HUNDQWLOLVPXVEHLIHVWHQ:HFKVHONXUVHQ
%LERZ
,Q GHU JXWHQ DOWHQ =HLW GHU *ROGZlKUXQJHQ JDE HV NHLQH 3UREOHPDWLN GHU *HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW LP
KHXWLJHQ 6LQQH &gt;@ 3UHLVYHUlQGHUXQJHQ ZXUGHQ GHU *WHUVHLWH QLFKW GHU *HOGVHLWH ]XJHVFKULHEHQ
'LH:lKUXQJJDOWDOVVWDELOZHQQGLH:HFKVHONXUVHVWDELOZDUHQ&gt;@$XFKGHU*ROGVWDQGDUGJDUDQ
WLHUWHNHLQDEVROXWVWDELOHV3UHLVQLYHDX(VJDE=HLWHQLQGHQHQGDVDOOJHPHLQH3UHLVQLYHDXUFNOlXILJ
ZDUXQGHVJDE=HLWHQLQGHQHQHVQDFKREHQJLQJ&gt;@'LHVHV$XIXQG$EGHU3UHLVHZXUGHXQWHU
GHU+HUUVFKDIWGHV*ROGVWDQGDUGVHEHQVRZLHGDV$XIXQG$EGHU.RQMXQNWXUHQPHKURGHUZHQLJHU
DOVHWZDV*RWWJHJHEHQHVKLQJHQRPPHQ&gt;@$XIGHQ*HGDQNHQGDGDV*HOGLQ=HLWHQUFNOlXILJHU
3UHLVHHLQHQK|KHUHQXQGLQ=HLWHQVWHLJHQGHU3UHLVHHLQHQJHULQJHUHQ:HUWKDEHQVROOWHNDPQLH
PDQG%OHVVLQJIYJO%OHVVLQJ
'DV .RQ]HSW GHV 'LUHNWRULXPV GHU %DQN 'HXWVFKHU /lQGHU EHVWDQG GDULQ GXUFK HLQH UHVWULNWLYH
*HOGSROLWLNXQGJU|HUH3UHLVVWDELOLWlWLQ'HXWVFKODQGDOVLP$XVODQGGLHGHXWVFKH:LUWVFKDIWLQGHQ
([SRUW]XWUHLEHQXQGVRJOHLFK]HLWLJGLH'0DUN]XKlUWHQXQGGDV:LUWVFKDIWVZDFKVWXPXQGGLH%H
VFKlIWLJXQJ ]X I|UGHUQ +ROWIUHULFK (QWVSUHFKHQGH bXHUXQJHQ YRQ (UKDUG XQG 9RFNH
ILQGHQVLFKHEHQIDOOVEHL+ROWIUHULFKI
LPSOL]LHUW HLQH GHP 3KLOOLSV.XUYHQ.RQ]HSW HQWJHJHQJHVHW]WH 1RUP *QVWLJ IU GLH %H
VFKlIWLJXQJZDUQLFKWHLQHVWHLJHQGHVRQGHUQHLQHVLQNHQGH,QIODWLRQVUDWH$XFKGHUNUlIWLJH
:LUWVFKDIWVDXIVFKZXQJ QDFK GHU OHW]WOLFK ]XU PRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ 1HXRULHQWLHUXQJ GHU
*HOGSROLWLNIKUWHZDUHQWVWDQGHQZHLOVLFK'HXWVFKODQGYRQGHQVWHLJHQGHQ3UHLVHQLQGHU
:HOWZLUWVFKDIW DEJHNRSSHOW KDWWH 'HXWVFKH %XQGHVEDQN 6SlWHU VSUDFKHQ HXUR
SDSROLWLVFKH *UQGH JHJHQ ZHFKVHONXUVSROLWLVFKH $OOHLQJlQJH 1DFK GHU (WDEOLHUXQJ GHU
6FKODQJHSOlGLHUWH+HOPXW6FKPLGWQRFKLP-DQXDUGDIUOLHEHUHLQHZHLWHUH,QIODWLRQ
DOVHLQH'0$XIZHUWXQJKLQ]XQHKPHQ+DJHQ
'LH DXFK LQ 'HXWVFKODQG DQJHVWHOOWHQ 8QWHUVXFKXQJHQ EHU GLH ([LVWHQ] HLQHU 3KLOOLSV
.XUYH(QNH0DQHYDO+RIIPDQQVSLHOWHQLQGHUZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHQ'LVNXVVLRQ
NDXP HLQH 5ROOH ZHLO PLW HLQHU NXU]HQ 8QWHUEUHFKXQJ 9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJ EHVWDQG XQG GLH
NH\QHVLDQLVFKH 6WUDWHJLH ZHQLJHU $UEHLWVORVLJNHLW JHJHQ PHKU ,QIODWLRQ HLQWDXVFKHQ ]X
ZROOHQ LQVRIHUQ LUUHOHYDQW ZDU 'LH %XQGHVEDQN VDK NHLQH %HVWlWLJXQJ IU GLH
7KHVHGDHLQHK|KHUH,QIODWLRQJQVWLJIUGDV:DFKVWXPVHL'LHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH.ULWLNDQ
HLQHU.RQMXQNWXUSROLWLNEHUGDV%XGJHWOLHILQ%H]XJDXI'HXWVFKODQGLQV/HHUHZHLOGLH)LV
NDOSROLWLNIRUPDOHUVWPLWGHP6WDELOLWlWVJHVHW]GD]XHUPlFKWLJWZXUGHXQGGLHVH0|J
OLFKNHLWGDQQQXUZHQLJQXW]WH
'LH 'LDJQRVH GHV 6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDWHV ]XP 3UREOHP GHU VFKOHLFKHQGHQ ,QIODWLRQ ODJ
TXHU]XGHQUHWURVSHNWLYYHUHLQIDFKWDXIJHEDXWHQ)URQWHQ3KLOOLSV.XUYHYV4XDQWLWlWVWKHR
ULH $QJHVLFKWV GHU ]HLWZHLOLJHQ hEHUEHVFKlIWLJXQJ KlWWH HLQ 5HNXUV DXI GLH 3KLOOLSV.XUYH
GXUFKDXVQDKHJHOHJHQDEHUGHU5DWVDKGLHVWHLJHQGHQ3UHLVHQLFKWGXUFKHLQHQ1DFKIUDJH
EHUVFKXYHUXUVDFKW-HGRFKNDQQPDQ)ULHGPDQV7KHPDHLQHUHUZDUWXQJVEHGLQJWHQ9HU
ODJHUXQJGHU3KLOOLSV.XUYHEHUHLWV]ZLVFKHQGHQ=HLOHQGHU5DWVGLDJQRVHILQGHQ
In den Lohnforderungen der Gewerkschaften und in den Lohnangeboten der Arbeitgeber kommen die Erwartungen der Tarifpartner &uuml;ber die Geldentwertung unmittelbar zum Ausdruck. Es
ist daher nicht verwunderlich, da&szlig; die Zuwachsraten von Effektiv- und Tarifl&ouml;hnen nach wie vor
betr&auml;chtlich &uuml;ber die Rate des Produktivit&auml;tsfortschritts hinausgehen. [...] Die landl&auml;ufigen Vorstellungen &uuml;ber die Ursachen der Inflation versagen, wenn sich die Gesellschaft daran gew&ouml;hnt
hat, da&szlig; das Preisniveau um drei Prozent im Jahr steigt.
Sachverst&auml;ndigenrat (1966: Zf. 107, 203, vgl. 198)
&amp;KDUDNWHULVWLVFKIUGLH3RVLWLRQGHV5DWHVZDUGDV3OlGR\HUIUHLQHPXOWLNDXVDOH,QIODWLRQV
HUNOlUXQJ LQ GHU DXFK 0DUNWPDFKWEHUOHJXQJHQ VRZLH YRU DOOHP GHU ,QIODWLRQVLPSRUW EHU
GHQGLUHNWHQLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQ3UHLV]XVDPPHQKDQJHLQH5ROOHVSLHOHQ%HPHUNHQVZHUWHUZHLVH
ZXUGHQ GLH *HZHUNVFKDIWHQ YRQ HLQHU 6FKXOG]XZHLVXQJ IUHLJHVSURFKHQ (LQH /RKQ]XUFN
KDOWXQJKlWWHGHQ,QIODWLRQVGUXFNQXUDXIGHQ([SRUWEHUVFKXHIIHNWYHUODJHUW'LH5HGHZHL
VH YRQ HLQHU 9LHOIDOW YRQ ,QIODWLRQVXUVDFKHQ HUVFKLHQ PRGHUQ XQG DXIJHNOlUW ZHLO DOWH (LQ
VHLWLJNHLWHQ EHUZXQGHQ ZXUGHQ 'LH 8QWHUVFKHLGXQJ ]ZLVFKHQ .RVWHQGUXFN 1DFKIUDJH
VRJXQG*HOGPHQJHQLQIODWLRQVHL EHUKROW XQG GDPLW DXFK GLH 9RUVWHOOXQJ GLH 1RWHQEDQN
WUDJHGLHXQJHWHLOWH9HUDQWZRUWXQJIUGLH*HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW
In der 'neuen' Inflation sind die Zusammenh&auml;nge komplexer, weil nicht nur die Nachfrager die
Preise nach oben ziehen, sondern auch die Anbieter sie nach oben dr&uuml;cken und weil beides in
der reichen und daher [?] reichlich mit Liquidit&auml;t versorgten Wirtschaft auch ohne Geldvermehrung keine Schwierigkeiten bereitet, sofern nur das Ziehen und Dr&uuml;cken einigerma&szlig;en im
Gleichtakt vor sich geht – im nationalen wie im internationalen Rahmen.
Sachverst&auml;ndigenrat (1966: Zf. 256, vgl. 204ff)
'LHVWDELOLWlWVSROLWLVFKH'HEDWWHLQ'HXWVFKODQGZDUELVLQGLHHU-DKUHYRQGHU:HFKVHO
NXUVSUREOHPDWLN EHKHUUVFKW 8QWHUEHZHUWXQJ LPSRUWLHUWH ,QIODWLRQ HU]ZXQJHQH *HOGVFK|S
IXQJQLFKWYRQGHP6]HQDULRGDV)ULHGPDQVRHUIROJUHLFKDWWDFNLHUWH(LQHSODQPl
LJH +HUEHLIKUXQJ YRQ hEHUNRQMXQNWXU XQG hEHUQDFKIUDJH DP $UEHLWVPDUNW ZDU QLFKW ]X
EHREDFKWHQ 6WXFNHQ )HVW]XKDOWHQ LVW DEHU GHU DXFK LQ 'HXWVFKODQG YRUKDQGHQH
.RQVHQVHLQHDQJHERWVVHLWLJHQWVWDQGHQH,QIODWLRQQLFKWEHUHLQHPRQHWlUH5HVWULNWLRQVSR
OLWLN]XEHNlPSIHQDXVZRKOIDKUWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQZLHDXVSROLWLVFKHQ*UQGHQ%OHVVLQJ
+DOOHU2EHUKDXVHU
'LHOLTXLGLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKH3RVLWLRQLQ7KHRULHXQG3UD[LVGHU*HOGSROLWLN
:HQQDXFKGLHZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH.RQVWHOODWLRQQLFKWVRJDQ]]XP)HLQGELOGGHVPRQHWDUL
VWLVFKHQ$QJULIIVSDWHVRLVWQXQ]XIUDJHQLQZHOFKHU+LQVLFKWGHU6WDQGGHU :LUWVFKDIWV
WKHRULH$QOD]XU.ULWLNERW5LFKWHUIIEHNODJWGDV)HKOHQHLQHUV\VWHPDWLVFKHQ
ZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKHQ'LVNXVVLRQGHUDQIlQJOLFKHQ*HOGSROLWLN*HVHOO$QKlQJHUXQG/DXWHQ
EDFKIRUGHUWHQHLQ3UHLVQLYHDX]LHODOV9HUVLFKHUXQJJHJHQ+RUWHQXQG'HIODWLRQGHU:LVVHQ
VFKDIWOLFKH %HLUDW .UHOOH XQG 6WW]HO IDYRULVLHUWHQ HLQ =LHOEQGHO DXV *HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW XQG
=DKOXQJVELODQ]DXVJOHLFK %HVFKlIWLJXQJ XQG :DFKVWXP ,QYHVWLWLRQV XQG 6SDUI|UGHUXQJ 'LH ZHLWHUH 'LVNXVVLRQ GUHKWH VLFK XP GLH (LQEH]LHKXQJ GHU *HOGVHLWH LQ GLH 0DNUR|NRQR
PLHXP6WW]HOV6DOGHQPHFKDQLNXQGGLH)LQDQ]LHUXQJVUHFKQXQJGHU%XQGHVEDQN,P:LV
VHQVFKDIWVEHWULHEKDWWH'HXWVFKODQG5LFKWHU]XIROJHNHLQHIKUHQGH3RVLWLRQ6WW]HOV
$UEHLWHQZDUHQ]ZDURULJLQHOODEHUZHGHUHUQRFKDQGHUHYHUVXFKWHQLKUH,GHHQLQWHUQDWLR
QDOHLQ]XEULQJHQ.H\QHVLDQLVPXVXQG0RQHWDULVPXVZDUHQDPHULNDQLVFKH,PSRUWH
'LH JHOGWKHRUHWLVFKH 'LVNXVVLRQ NQSIWH DOOHUGLQJV DP HQJOLVFKHQ 5DGFOLIIH5HSRUW DQ
'HU OLTXLGLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKH $QVDW] GRPLQLHUWH LQ GHXWVFKHQ -RXUQDOV .ODVVLVFKTXDQWLWlWV
WKHRUHWLVFKDUJXPHQWLHUHQGH$XWRUHQZLH/XW]EOLHEHQ$XHQVHLWHU9HUWUHWHUGHU/LTXLGLWlWV
WKHRULH ZDUHQ 9HLW 6WW]HO .|KOHU XQG -DUFKRZ VSlWHU DXFK 3RKO 'XZHQGDJ .DWK XQG
2EHUKDXVHU5LFKWHUI1LFKW]XOHW]WLQIROJHGHU0LWJOLHGVFKDIWYRQ.|KOHU
,Q GHQ ZLFKWLJHQ GHXWVFKHQ =HLWVFKULIWHQ ZDU DXFK QLFKWV YRQ GHU ]HQWUDOHQ 'HEDWWH XP GLH '0
$XIZHUWXQJ]XOHVHQ
'DV.RQ]HSW,QYHVWLWLRQHQPRQHWlU]XI|UGHUQXQG]XJOHLFKPLWHLQHU6SDUI|UGHUXQJGDVJWHUZLUW
VFKDIWOLFKH*OHLFKJHZLFKW]XKDOWHQZDUDOOHUGLQJVGHU.RQVWHOODWLRQGHUIUKHQHU-DKUHQGXUFKDXV
DQJHPHVVHQ5LFKWHUV3ROHPLNGLHVHhEHUOHJXQJDOV$XVGUXFNHLQHVK\GUDXOLVFKHQ
NH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ.UHLVODXIGHQNHQV]XEUDQGPDUNHQLQGHPHVNHLQH0lUNWHNHLQH6WHXHUXQJGXUFK
3UHLVH/|KQH=LQVHQJHEHJHKWDP7KHPDYRUEHL
YHUWUDW DXFK GHU 6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW $QIDQJ GHU HU -DKUH GDV /LTXLGLWlWVNRQ]HSW :LH
REHQDXVJHIKUWZLUGLQGLHVHP$QVDW]GDVJHVDPWH6SHNWUXPOLTXLGHU$VVHWVDOVZLFKWLJIU
GLH *WHUQDFKIUDJH DQJHVHKHQ 'LH 8Q]XOlQJOLFKNHLW GHU 4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH EHVWHKH GDULQ
GDVLHPLWGHU*HOGPHQJHQXUHLQH)LQDQ]LHUXQJVP|JOLFKNHLWYRQ*WHUNlXIHQEHUFNVLFKWL
JH &quot; 'HPJHJHQEHU EHVDJW GLH /LTXLGLWlWVWKHRULH 'LH :LUWVFKDIWVVXEMHNWH N|QQHQ LKUH
$NWLYLWlWHQHQWZHGHUPLW+LOIHGHUYRUKDQGHQHQ*HOGPHQJHLQVEHVRQGHUHGHQ6LFKWHLQODJHQ
GHU .UHGLWLQVWLWXWH %DQNHQJHOG ILQDQ]LHUHQ RGHU GXUFK $XIQDKPH ]XVlW]OLFKHU .UHGLWH
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW=IYJO.|KOHU.HWWHUHU3RKO
'LHVH %HVFKUHLEXQJ HLQHU =DKOXQJVZLUWVFKDIW LVW DXIJUXQG GHU 9HUPLVFKXQJ YRQ $NWLY
XQG3DVVLYNDWHJRULHQGXELRV6LHHUIDWDXFKQLFKWGHQLP%DQNV\VWHPPLWHLQHU.UHGLWYHU
JDEH DXIWUHWHQGHQ /LTXLGLWlWVEHGDUI 1DFK HLQHU HQWVSUHFKHQGHQ .ULWLN YRQ %UXQQHU1HX
PDQQJHVWDQG3RKO]ZDU]XGDOHW]WOLFKDOOH=DKOXQJHQPLW*HOG]XOHLVWHQ
VLQGKLHOWDEHUDQGHU8QWHUVFKHLGXQJ]ZLVFKHQYRUKDQGHQHPXQGYLD.UHGLWEHVFKDIIED
UHP*HOGIHVW'LHVH8QWHUVFKHLGXQJZDUIUGHQOLTXLGLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQ$QVDW]]HQWUDO(L
QHPLWWHOIULVWLJDP3URGXNWLRQVSRWHQWLDOGHU9RONVZLUWVFKDIWRULHQWLHUWH*HOGSROLWLNPVVHDXI
GDV .UHGLWYROXPHQ DE]LHOHQ ZHLO QXU GLH .UHGLWYHUJDEH GK GLH EHVFKDIIEDUH QLFKW DEHU
GLH YRUKDQGHQH *HOGPHQJH NRQWUROOLHUEDU VHL $XFK GLHV LVW ZLGHUVSUFKOLFK :HQQ GLH
%DQNHQ]XU.UHGLWDXVZHLWXQJ]XVlW]OLFKH/LTXLGLWlWEHQ|WLJHQ6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW=I
HEHQ GLHVH /LTXLGLWlW GK =HQWUDOEDQNJHOG DEHU TXDQWLWDWLY QLFKW VWHXHUEDU LVW GDQQ
ZlUH EHL HLQHP IHVWHQ /LQN ]ZLVFKHQ .UHGLWYROXPHQ XQG *HOGPHQJH HUVWHUHV DXFK QLFKW
VWHXHUEDU=XU/|VXQJGLHVHV3UREOHPVUHNXUULHUWGHUOLTXLGLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKH$QVDW]ZLHGHU
0RQHWDULVPXVDXIGLH3RUWIROLRWKHRULH
=ZDUJHKWHVOHW]WOLFKXPHLQH.RQWUROOHYRQ=DKOXQJVVWU|PHQMHGRFKEHUXKWGHU7UDQV
PLVVLRQVSUR]HJHOGSROLWLVFKHU,PSXOVHDXIHLQHU$QSDVVXQJYRQ9HUP|JHQVEHVWlQGHQ$Q
JHQRPPHQZLUGHLQH1RUPDOVWUXNWXUGHU%DQNELODQ]HQ'DQDFKVHLHQGLH%DQNHQEHVWUHEW
HLQH EHVWLPPWH /LTXLGLWlWVTXRWH DXIUHFKW]XHUKDOWHQ 'LHVH ZLUG GHILQLHUW DOV GDV 9HUKlOWQLV
YRQOLTXLGHQ$NWLYD]XPJHVDPWHQ0LWWHODXINRPPHQYHUDQVFKDXOLFKWGXUFKGLH5HODWLRQGHU
EHLGHQVFKUDIILHUWHQ)OlFKHQLQGHUVWLOLVLHUWHQ%DQNELODQ]'LHPDQJHOQGH6WHXHUEDUNHLWGHU
*HOGPHQJH]%0RGHU0HUJLEWVLFKLQVEHVRQGHUHDXVGHU8PVWUXNWXULHUXQJVP|JOLFK
NHLW]ZLVFKHQ'HSRVLWHQXQG*HOGNDSLWDOYRQ6HLWHQGHU1LFKWEDQNHQ6LHZlKOHQVLFKLKUHQ
JHZQVFKWHQ .DVVHQEHVWDQG XQG N|QQHQ QLFKW ]X JHOGSROLWLVFK QRWZHQGLJHQ 2IIHQPDUNW
WUDQVDNWLRQHQ EHZHJW ZHUGHQ 'LH %XQGHVEDQN VSUDFK GHQQ DXFK ELV ZHQLJHU YRQ
*HOG DOV YRQ .UHGLWSROLWLN ZLFKWLJVWHV ,QVWUXPHQW LVW GLH 9DULDWLRQ GHU 0LQGHVWUHVHUYHQ
'DPLWlQGHUWVLFKGLH6WUXNWXUGHU%LODQ]DNWLYDZRUDXIKLQGLH%DQNHQ%RQGKDOWXQJXQG.UH
+DMR5LHVHSIOHJWHGLH$EVXUGLWlWGHU9RUVWHOOXQJHLQHU=DKOXQJVDOWHUQDWLYH*HOGRGHU.UHGLWPLW
GHUILNWLYHQ.UHGLWQDFKIUDJHHLQHU2PD]XLOOXVWULHUHQGLHGHQQRFK]|JHUQGHQ%DQNDQJHVWHOOWHQPLW
GHU %HVFKHLGHQKHLW VLJQDOLVLHUHQGHQ 9HUVLFKHUXQJ ]X EHUUHGHQ VXFKW VLH VHL GXUFKDXV PLW HLQHP
.UHGLWLQ)RUPYRQ*LUDOJHOG]XIULHGHQ
(UVWDE(QGHGHUHU-DKUHZXUGHQ*HOGPHQJHQGDWHQLQGHQ0RQDWVEHULFKWHQYHU|IIHQWOLFKW(P
PLQJHU7HZHV
%DQNELODQ]
.DVVH'HYLVHQIUHLH
=HQWUDOEDQNJXWKDEHQ
,QWHUEDQNHQIRUGHUXQJHQ
5HGLVNRQWNRQWLQJHQWHLQXQG
'HSRVLWHQ
DXVOlQGLVFKH*HOGPDUNWSDSLHUH
%RQGV
.UHGLWH
*HOGNDSLWDO
GLWYHUJDEHVRDQSDVVHQGDGLHDOWH/LTXLGLWlWVTXRWHZLHGHUKHUJHVWHOOWZLUG'LHNUHGLWSROLWL
VFKHQ ,QVWUXPHQWH ZLUNHQ SULPlU DXI /LTXLGLWlWVVWDWXV XQG 5HILQDQ]LHUXQJVNRVWHQ GHU %DQ
NHQ(LQH6HQNXQJGHU0LQGHVWUHVHUYHQIKUWLKQHQ]XVlW]OLFKH/LTXLGLWlW]XXQGEHZHJWVLH
YHUPHKUW ZHQLJHU OLTXLGH DEHU UHQWDEOHUH 7LWHO LQVEHVRQGHUH .UHGLWIRUGHUXQJHQ ]X HUZHU
EHQ'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN5LFKWHU
.ULWLNHU PRQLHUWHQ GD GHU /LTXLGLWlWVDQVDW] EHU NHLQ SUHLVWKHRUHWLVFK IXQGLHUWHV *H
VDPWPRGHOO YHUIJH 0RQLVVHQ )DXW] D 'LH $QSDVVXQJVPHFKDQLVPHQ ZXUGHQ
HKHUXQVFKDUIEHVFKULHEHQXQGDUEHLWHQZRKODXFKHPSLULVFKVHKUZHLFK6HOEVW9HUWUHWHU
GHU/LTXLGLWlWVWKHRULHXQWHUVWHOOWHQNHLQHVWDELOH.UHGLWVFK|SIXQJVIXQNWLRQHLQHEHVWLPPWH/L
TXLGLWlWVTXRWH N|QQH QXU VFKZHU DXIUHFKWHUKDOWHQ ZHUGHQ 6HOEVW EHL JHVFKORVVHQHU :LUW
VFKDIW H[LVWLHUWH NHLQ VWDELOHU =XVDPPHQKDQJ ]ZLVFKHQ /LTXLGLWlWVTXRWH XQG .UHGLWYHUJDEH
'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN'LH%DQNHQYHUKLHOWHQVLFKSUR]\NOLVFK7URW]K|KHUHU=LQ
VHQLQWHQVLYLHUWHQVLHGDV'LVNRQWJHVFKlIWLP%RRPXQGYHUNDXIWHQ:HUWSDSLHUH*HOGPHQJH
XQG.UHGLWHEHZHJWHQVLFKGDPLWHQWJHJHQGHQJHOGSROLWLVFKHQ=LHOHQ.DOGRU'UU
6LHENH:LOOPV 9HUlQGHUXQJHQ GHU /LTXLGLWlWVTXRWH N|QQHQ DXFK )HKOVLJQDOH
DXVO|VHQ6RNDQQHLQHVWHLJHQGH.UHGLWQDFKIUDJHGHQ/LTXLGLWlWVVDOGRVHQNHQZDVGLH1R
WHQEDQN GD]X YHUDQODVVHQ N|QQWH H[SDQVLYHU XQG GDPLW SUR]\NOLVFK ]X DJLHUHQ 'LH %DQ
NHQOLTXLGLWlW LVW HLQ XQ]XYHUOlVVLJHU ,QGLNDWRU (LQH EHVWLPPWH /LTXLGLWlWVTXRWH LVW PLW YHU
VFKLHGHQKRKHQ,QIODWLRQVUDWHQYHUHLQEDU1HXPDQQ:LOOPV)DXW]E5LFK
9RUDOOHPDEHUJUHLIWUHVWULNWLYH.UHGLWSROLWLNQLFKWZHQQGLH%DQNHQEHUUHLFKOLFKPLW/LTXL
GLWlWYHUVRUJWVLQGRGHUVLFKMHGHU]HLWIHKOHQGHV=HQWUDOEDQNJHOGEHVFKDIIHQN|QQHQ,P*H
JHQVDW] ]X GHQ 86$ JHK|UWH LQ 'HXWVFKODQG GLH =XODVVXQJ IUHLHU /LTXLGLWlWVUHVHUYHQ DXV
6RUJHXPGLHILQDQ]LHOOH6WDELOLWlWGHU%DQNHQ]XP*UXQGSULQ]LSGHU*HOGSROLWLN,QVEHVRQGH
UHEHLIHVWHQ:HFKVHONXUVHQZDUGLH/LTXLGLWlWGHU%DQNHQQLFKW]XNRQWUROOLHUHQ%HLMHGHP
9HUVXFK GHU %XQGHVEDQN /LTXLGLWlW GXUFK $EJDEH YRQ *HOGPDUNWSDSLHUHQ DE]XVFK|SIHQ
HQWVWDQGHQQHXH5HVHUYHQGLHMHGHU]HLWZLHGHULQ=HQWUDOEDQNJHOGJHWDXVFKWZHUGHQNRQQ
WHQ2IIHQPDUNWSROLWLNDP*HOGPDUNWZDUVRHLJHQWOLFKVLQQORV2IIHQPDUNWSROLWLNDP.DSLWDO
PDUNW KDWWH VLFK DXV KLVWRULVFKHQ *UQGHQ QLFKW DOV ,QVWUXPHQW HQWZLFNHOW ZHLO GHU %RQG
PDUNWQDFKGHP.ULHJZHJHQGHU(QWZHUWXQJGHU6WDDWVVFKXOGXQGGHVKRKHQ6HOEVWILQDQ
]LHUXQJVJUDGHV GHU 8QWHUQHKPHQ ]X HQJ ZDU 'HXWVFKH %XQGHVEDQN 2EHUKDXVHU,UPOHU%RFNHOPDQQ6FKOHVLQJHU,P.HUQZDUGDV
.RQ]HSWGHU/LTXLGLWlWVVWHXHUXQJVFKRQ0LWWHGHUHU-DKUHJHVFKHLWHUW
Der Z[entral]B[ank]R[at] gab vor, die Preisniveauentwicklung im Griff zu haben. In Wahrheit
stand er &uuml;ber weite Strecken fast hilflos der Geldmengenerh&ouml;hung gegen&uuml;ber. Sein gr&ouml;&szlig;er Beitrag zum 'Wirtschaftswunder' bestand darin, da&szlig; er diese nicht als Problem f&uuml;r die Bewahrung
der Preisstabilit&auml;t ansah, sondern entsprechend seiner produktionspolitischen Orientierung als
Schmiermittel der 'Mengenkonjunktur', jedenfalls solange die Tarifpartner nicht mit einer entsprechenden Erh&ouml;hung des Lohnst&uuml;ckkostenniveaus reagierten.
Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich (1998: 429)
'LH%XQGHVEDQNNDSLWXOLHUWHYRUGHUVFKOHLFKHQGHQ,QIODWLRQ(VZDUDEVHKEDUGDGLH%DQ
NHQ PLW LKUHP KRKHQ 3ROVWHU DQ 6HNXQGlUOLTXLGLWlW DE MHGH NQIWLJH 5HVWULNWLRQVSROLWLN
XQWHUODXIHQNRQQWHQ+LQ]XNDPHQLPPHUQHXH:HOOHQVSHNXODWLYHU.DSLWDO]XIOVVHZRGXUFK
GLH%DQNHQOLTXLGLWlWEHLIHVWHQ:HFKVHONXUVHQGLUHNWRGHULQGLUHNWZHLWHUDQJHUHLFKHUWZXU
GH'HU6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW=IKDWWHEHWRQWGDGLHSRWHQWLDORULHQWLHUWH.UHGLW
SROLWLNHLQHUDXHQZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHQ$EVLFKHUXQJEHGUIH'HU]HLWZHLOLJEHWULHEHQH$XVZHJ
DXV GHP 'RSSHOSUREOHP YRQ =DKOXQJVELODQ] XQG /LTXLGLWlWVEHUVFKX GLH %HPKXQJHQ
XP]XVlW]OLFKH.DSLWDOH[SRUWH]XLQWHQVLYLHUHQVFKLHQDXV6LFKWGHU%XQGHVEDQNDXFKQLFKW
OlQJHU YHUWUHWEDU GD GHU .DSLWDOH[SRUW JHPHVVHQ DP UHDOHQ /HLVWXQJVYHUNHKU XQG LP 9HU
JOHLFK]XGHQ86$VFKRQYLHO]XKRFKVHL6FKOLHOLFKZDU]XEHREDFKWHQGDGLH%DQNHQ
GLH4XRWHLKUHUIUHLHQ5HVHUYHQGUDVWLVFKYHUULQJHUWHQXQGDXFKGDUEHUGLH5HVWULNWLRQVYHU
VXFKHGHU%XQGHVEDQNNRQWHUNDULHUWHQ
'LH*UQGHIUGLHVWUDWHJLVFKH:HQGH
'LH1RWZHQGLJNHLWHLQHU1HXDXVULFKWXQJGHU*HOGSROLWLNZXUGHDXFKYRQ9HUWUHWHUQGHU/LTXL
GLWlWVWKHRULH QLFKW EHVWULWWHQ 2EHUKDXVHU IRUGHUWH HLQH TXDQWLWDWLYH %HJUHQ]XQJ GHU
*HVDPWOLTXLGLWlW GHU %DQNHQ 6LH GUIWHQ QLFKW OlQJHU LQ GHU /DJH VHLQ GHQ DQJHVWUHEWHQ
.XUVGHU1RWHQEDQNGXUFK$NWLYLHUXQJLKUHU6SLHOUlXPHEHL'LVNRQWXQG/RPEDUGJHVFKlIWHQ
]XXQWHUODXIHQ$OOHELVKHULJHQ5HILQDQ]LHUXQJVZHJHVROOWHQ]XHLQHU$UWhEHU]LHKXQJVNUHGLW
]XVDPPHQJHIDWZHUGHQEHLGHPVRZRKOGDV0HQJHQNRQWLQJHQWDOVDXFKGHU5HILQDQ]LH
UXQJVVDW] DOV 'RSSHOLQVWUXPHQW HLQ]XVHW]HQ VHLHQ GLHVHU 9RUVFKODJ HQWVSUDFK SUDNWLVFK
$OOHUGLQJVVSUDFKVLFK.|KOHULQHLQHP0LQGHUKHLWVYRWXP6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW=IJH
JHQIOH[LEOH:HFKVHONXUVHDXVXQGHPSIDKOGDPLWLQGLUHNWQRWIDOOVGLULJLVWLVFKH0DQDKPHQ
2IIHQVLFKWOLFKKDWVLFKGDV8UWHLOGHU%DQNHQEHUGLHIUHLQHEHVWLPPWH.UHGLWH[SDQVLRQQRWZHQ
GLJH/LTXLGLWlWVDXVVWDWWXQJJHlQGHUW&gt;@'LH9RUVWHOOXQJVFKLHQVLFKGXUFKJHVHW]W]XKDEHQGD/L
TXLGLWlWLQ)RUPYRQ=HQWUDOEDQNJHOGOHW]WOLFKGRFK]XU9HUIJXQJJHVWHOOWZHUGH'HXWVFKH%XQGHV
EDQNYJO2EHUKDXVHU+DJHQ
GHQVSlWHUHLQJHIKUWHQ:HUWSDSLHUSHQVLRQVJHVFKlIWHQGHU%XQGHVEDQN9HUWUHWHUGHUPR
QHWDULVWLVFKHQ 3RVLWLRQ LQ 'HXWVFKODQG ZLH 0RQLVVHQ 1HXPDQQ 6LHENH XQG :LOOPV EH
PKWHQVLFKXPHLQHQHPSLULVFKHQ1DFKZHLVGHUhEHUOHJHQKHLWGHU*HOGPHQJHJHJHQEHU
GHP/LTXLGLWlWVVDOGRDOV,QGLNDWRUXQGSOlGLHUWHQIUHLQH2IIHQPDUNWSROLWLNPLWGHU0HQJHDOV
$NWLRQVSDUDPHWHU6LHENH:LOOPV:LOOPV1HXPDQQ0|OOHUXD
'HU6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDWYROO]RJ&plusmn; JHJHQGHQ:LOOHQYRQ.|KOHU&plusmn; HLQHQ3RVLWLRQVZHFK
VHO EHPHUNHQVZHUWHUZHLVH DOOHUGLQJV ZHQLJHU LQ WKHRUHWLVFKHU +LQVLFKW 'LH ([SDQVLRQ GHU
'ROODU*HOGPHQJH VHL NHLQH QRWZHQGLJH %HGLQJXQJ IU GLH :HOW ,QIODWLRQ GLH 7KHVH GD ,QIODWLRQ OHW]WOLFK RKQH HLQ *HOGPHQJHQZDFKVWXP XQP|JOLFK VHL JHOWH QXU ODQJIULVWLJ
$XFK GLH :LUNXQJVZHLVH GHV 7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXV OLHJH OHW]WOLFK QRFK LP 'XQNHOQ
:DV GHQ 5DW IDV]LQLHUWH ZDU GLH ZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH ,GHH HLQHU PRQHWlUHQ %XGJHWEH
VFKUlQNXQJLPDOOJHPHLQHQ9HUWHLOXQJVNDPSI'DV=LHOGHU*HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlWPVVHYHUVHOE
VWlQGLJWZHUGHQVRGDGLH0DUNWLQWHUDNWLRQGHU,QWHUHVVHQJUXSSHQQLFKWPHKU]XU,QIODWLRQ
IKUW'DKHUVHLHLQHTXDQWLWDWLYH9RUJDEHGHV*HOGPHQJHQZDFKVWXPVQRWZHQGLJ
Das Substrat der wirtschaftlichen Interessen in einer arbeitsteiligen Wirtschaft ist das Geld. Die
Menge und damit auf die Dauer auch der Wert des Geldes sollten daher nicht zur Disposition
derer stehen, die es begehren – auch nicht zur Disposition des Staates [...]. Die um das Geld
Streitenden sollten sich die Menge des insgesamt verf&uuml;gbaren Geldes also von au&szlig;en vorgeben lassen. [...] Stabilit&auml;t des Geldwerts ist dann kein Ziel mehr, sondern eine Spielregel.
Sachverst&auml;ndigenrat (1974: Zf. 372, vgl. 374ff, 1972: Zf. 352ff, 395).
$XFKGLH%XQGHVEDQNIIIKDWWHDQJHVLFKWVGHU)HKO
HQWZLFNOXQJHQGHU/RKQSROLWLNXQGGHUXQJHKLQGHUWZDFKVHQGHQ*HOGPHQJHDXIGHPJHOG
SROLWLVFKHQ*UXQGSULQ]LSLQVLVWLHUWQDFKGHP]XKRKHQRPLQDOH$QVSUFKHDQGDV6R]LDOSUR
GXNWQLFKWPRQHWlUDOLPHQWLHUWZHUGHQGUIWHQVHOEVWDOVSKDVHQZHLVHGLH%DQNNUHGLWVFK|S
IXQJ HLQJHGlPPW VFKLHQ JLQJ GDV PRQHWlUH :DFKVWXP ZHLWHU 'LHVH 'LDJQRVH NDQQ PDQ
ZLH EHLP 6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW DOV HLQH &plusmn; QLFKW PRQHWDULVWLVFKH &plusmn; YHUWHLOXQJVNDPSIWKHRUHWL
VFKH(UNOlUXQJGHU,QIODWLRQGHXWHQGHUQXQHLQHPRQHWlUH6FKUDQNHJHVHW]WZHUGHQVROOWH
,QIODWLRQZXUGHYRQGHU%XQGHVEDQN&plusmn; YHUVWlQGOLFKHUZHLVH&plusmn; QLHDOOHLQDXIGDV9HUKDOWHQGHU
*HOGSROLWLN ]XUFNJHIKUW 'LH 9RUJDEH YRQ *HOGPHQJHQZDFKVWXPV]LHOHQ DE ZXUGH
DOV([SHULPHQWYHUVWDQGHQXPGHQ0DUNWDNWHXUHQGHQEHJUHQ]WHQPRQHWlUHQ6SLHOUDXPYRU
$XJHQ ]X IKUHQ XQG VLH YRQ SUHLVWUHLEHQGHQ 9HUWHLOXQJVNlPSIHQ DE]XKDOWHQ 6FKOHVLQJHU
&amp;DHVDU7HZHV
*ODXEWHGLH%XQGHVEDQNDQGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH7KHRULH&quot;8QGDEZHOFKHP=HLWSXQNW&quot;$XI
HLQHU=HQWUDOEDQNUDWVLW]XQJLP-DKUVWHOOWH'LUHNWRULXPVPLWJOLHG*RFKWHLQSURPRQHWD
ULVWLVFKHV0HPRUDQGXP.HW]HULVFKH*HGDQNHQLQGHU1DFKWYRUGDVVHKUEHIUHPGOLFKJH
ZLUNWKDEHQVROO$XFKVSlWHUHLQWHUQH'HEDWWHQYHUOLHIHQNRQWURYHUV(PPLQJHU
'LHJHVDPWH'HEDWWHIDQGKDXSWVlFKOLFKLQGHUQHXJHJUQGHWHQ=HLWVFKULIW.UHGLWXQG.DSL
WDOVWDWW(VLVWEHPHUNHQVZHUWGDVLFKLQGHU9HUHLQV=HLWVFKULIWIU:LUWVFKDIWV XQG 6R]LDOZLV
VHQVFKDIWHQNHLQ%HLWUDJILQGHW
$EELOGXQJ%UXWWRVR]LDOSURGXNW*HOGPHQJHXQG8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW
1HXPDQQ (PSLULVFKH (YLGHQ]HQ ]XJXQVWHQ GHU PRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ /HKUHQ N|QQHQ
NDXP GHQ $XVVFKODJ JHJHEHQ KDEHQ EHGHQNW PDQ GLH VWDUN VFKZDQNHQGH 8PODXIJH
VFKZLQGLJNHLW LQ GHQ IUKHQ HU -DKUHQ $EELOGXQJ 1RFK KLHOW GLH %XQGHVEDQN
GDV *HOGYROXPHQ IU HLQH XQVFKDUIH 2ULHQWLHUXQJVJU|H XQG ZLHV DXI GDV 3UREOHP VLFK
lQGHUQGHU.DVVHQKDOWXQJVJHZRKQKHLWHQKLQ$EHUVHOEVWHLQHVWDELOH8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW
KlWWH ZHQLJ DXVJHVDJW GD GLH *HOGPHQJH ELV ]X GLHVHP =HLWSXQNW QLH DQJHERWVVHLWLJ EH
VFKUlQNW GK DOOHLQ GXUFK GLH *HOGQDFKIUDJH EHVWLPPW ZDU 'LH %DQNHQ IKOWHQ VLFK SUDN
WLVFKQLHPDOVEHHQJW(LQ9RUODXIGHU*HOGPHQJHZDUDXFKEHU0XOWLSOLNDWRUXQG$N]HOH
UDWRUHIIHNWHHUNOlUEDU'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN2EHUKDXVHU,UPOHU
KLHOWDXIGHPHUVWHQ.RQVWDQ]HU6HPLQDUGDUDQIHVWGDGLH%XQGHVEDQNGLHHLJHQH
*HOGVFK|SIXQJXQGGDV.UHGLWDQJHERWGHU%DQNHQVWHXHUQPVVH
'HUHUVWH*UXQGGHUGLH %XQGHVEDQN ]X HLQHP HQHUJLVFKHQ .XUVZHFKVHO ]ZDQJ IROJWH
DXVGHU 9HUOHW]XQJHLQHUPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ1RUP'HQ.H\QHVLDQHUQZXUGHJHUQ YRUJHZRU
IHQ 1RPLQDO XQG 5HDO]LQV ]X YHUZHFKVHOQ XQG QLFKW ]X HUNHQQHQ GD GLH ,QIODWLRQ QDFK
GHP)LVKHU7KHRUHP]XHLQHPHQWVSUHFKHQGHQ$XIVFKODJDXIGHQ1RPLQDO]LQVIKUH)DQG
6SlWHUH %HOHJH IU GHQ TXDQWLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQ =XVDPPHQKDQJ LQ 'HXWVFKODQG ILQGHQ VLFK EHL
6FKOHVLQJHU-DKQNHXQGLQ'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
6LHENH:LOOPV7DWVlFKOLFKVDKVLFKGLH%XQGHVEDQNYRUDOOHPDXVZlKUXQJVSR
OLWLVFKHQ*UQGHQ]XHLQHU=LQVSROLWLNJH]ZXQJHQGLHGHQ6SDUHUVFKXW]DXVK|KOWHXQGHLQHU
8PYHUWHLOXQJ]XGHQ6DFKYHUP|JHQVEHVLW]HUQ9RUVFKXEOHLVWHWH'LHVZDULQHLQHP/DQGLQ
GHPGHU*HOGYHUP|JHQVELOGXQJHLQHJURH5ROOH]XNDPHLQHZLUWVFKDIWOLFKXQGSROLWLVFKJH
IlKUOLFKH7HQGHQ]'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQNIII
'HU]ZHLWH*UXQGIUGLH6XFKHQDFKHLQHPQHXHQ.RQ]HSWHUJDEVLFKGDUDXVGDGHU
IRUWVFKUHLWHQGH9HUOXVWGHU.RQWUROOHEHUGLH=HQWUDOEDQN*HOGVFK|SIXQJGLH3RVLWLRQGHU
%XQGHVEDQN DOV JHOG XQG ZlKUXQJVSROLWLVFKH ,QVWDQ] DXVK|KOWH 'LHV ZDU QLFKW QXU HLQ
3UREOHPGHUYHUOHW]WHQ(LWHONHLW'LH%XQGHVEDQNHUZDUHQVLFKHLQLJGDGHU6HOEVWEHGLH
QXQJVODGHQIUGLH*HVFKlIWVEDQNHQJHVFKORVVHQZHUGHQPXWH6LHKlWWHQLKUHKHUDXVJH
KREHQH 3RVLWLRQ LP *HIJH GHU ZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHQ ,QVWLWXWLRQHQ JHIlKUGHW RGHU YHUORUHQ
ZHQQQLFKWNODUZDUGDVLHGLHPRQHWlUHQ5DKPHQEHGLQJXQJHQIUGLHGHXWVFKH:LUWVFKDIW
EHUZDFKHQ XQG VWHXHUQ NRQQWHQ 'LH RUGQXQJVSROLWLVFK EHVRQGHUH 6WHOOXQJ GHU %XQGHV
EDQNLP)LQDQ]PDUNWV\VWHPZDUGXUFKGLHXQIUHLZLOOLJH*HOGVFK|SIXQJHURGLHUWXQGLKUH$X
WRULWlWPHKUXQGPHKUXQWHUJUDEHQZRUGHQ'HVKDOEZDUGHUhEHUJDQJ]XU*HOGPHQJHQSROL
WLN QLFKW HLQH $QVFKOXEHZHJXQJ DQ GHQ LQ 0RGH JHNRPPHQHQ 0RQHWDULVPXV VFKRQ LP
%XQGHVEDQNJHVHW]LVWGLHULFKWLJH'RVLHUXQJ GHU XPODXIHQGHQ *HOGPHQJH JHIRUGHUW 'HXW
VFKH%XQGHVEDQN(PPLQJHUI1HXPDQQ
Da&szlig; es einer Kontrolle der Geldsch&ouml;pfung bedarf, kann nicht zweifelhaft sein. Sie ist ein Grunderfordernis der arbeitsteiligen Wirtschaftsordnung. Es ist nicht eine nach Deutschland mit Versp&auml;tung gelangte Modeerscheinung, sich Sorge um die Kontrolle der Geldsch&ouml;pfung zu machen. Es ist vielmehr von jeher als eine vorrangige Verantwortung des Staates angesehen worden, f&uuml;r 'gutes', wertstabiles Geld zu sorgen.
Horst Bockelmann (1974: 159)
Der &Uuml;bergang der Bundesbank von einem mehr liquidit&auml;tsorientierten Konzept zur Zentralbankgeldsteuerung ist auch nicht nur vor dem Hintergrund der geldtheoretischen Diskussion zu sehen, die schon Jahre vorher einsetzte, sondern auch als Reaktion auf Ver&auml;nderungen in den institutionellen Gegebenheiten, insbesondere der Aufgabe des Systems fester Wechselkurse.
Helmut Schlesinger (1976: 451)
$OOHUGLQJVHUJLEW6FKOHVLQJHUV7KHVH&plusmn; *HOGPHQJHQVWHXHUXQJDOV.RQVHTXHQ]DXVGHP=X
VDPPHQEUXFK GHV %UHWWRQ:RRGV6\VWHPV &plusmn; DXFK XPJHNHKUW HLQHQ 6LQQ 'LH .ODJH GHU
%XQGHVEDQNHUEHUGLHPRQHWlUH1HEHQUHJLHUXQJGHU'HYLVHQPlUNWHPDFKWGHXWOLFKGD
1RWHQEDQNHQVFKRQZHJHQGHUJU|HUHQ+DQGOXQJVDXWRQRPLHIOH[LEOH:HFKVHONXUVHYRU]LH
KHQ 'LH 9HUDQWZRUWOLFKHQ KDWWHQ RIIHQEDU GHQ (LQGUXFN JHZRQQHQ GD 1RWHQEDQNHQ PLW
KRKHU5HSXWDWLRQLKUH,GHQWLWlWQXUZDKUHQNRQQWHQZHQQVLHVLFKYRQGHQ'HYLVHQPlUNWHQ
DENRSSHOWHQ'LHVHUNOlUWZDUXPQHEHQGHU%XQGHVEDQNDXFKGLH6FKZHL]HU1DWLRQDOEDQN
HLQ VR JURHV ,QWHUHVVH DP .RQVWDQ]HU 6HPLQDU ]HLJWH *HOGPHQJHQNRQWUROOH XQG IHVWH
:HFKVHONXUVH VFKOLHHQ VLFK DXV GLH YRP 0RQHWDULVPXV YHUODQJWH *HOGPHQJHQVWHXHUXQJ
ZDUIDNWLVFKGDV9HKLNHO]XP$XVVWLHJDXVGHPXQJHOLHEWHQ)HVWNXUVV\VWHP6RNRQQWHGLH
%XQGHVEDQNGLHDNDGHPLVFKH%HZHJXQJXPGHQ0RQHWDULVPXVQXW]HQXPLKUH6WHOOXQJDOV
,QVWLWXWLRQ]XNRQVROLGLHUHQXQG+DQGOXQJVIUHLKHLW]XUFN]XJHZLQQHQ6LHZXUGHZLHGHU+HUU
LPHLJHQHQ+DXV(PPLQJHU
'HU$VSHNWGHULQVWLWXWLRQHOOHQ$XWRQRPLHSUlJWHDXFKGLH(QWVFKHLGXQJ]XU*HOGPHQJHQ
SROLWLN DOV ,QVWUXPHQW 'LH SUDNWLVFKH 6FKZlFKH GHV OLTXLGLWlWVWKHRUHWLVFKHQ $QVDW]HV KDWWH
VFKRQZlKUHQGGHU'HEDWWHXPGDV6WDELOLWlWVJHVHW]]XhEHUOHJXQJHQJHIKUWGHU%XQGHV
EDQN VFKlUIHUH ,QVWUXPHQWH ZLH ]% HLQH DXI GLH .UHGLWYHUJDEH EH]RJHQHQ $NWLYUHVHUYH
]XU9HUIJXQJ]XVWHOOHQ'LH0|JOLFKNHLWDGPLQLVWUDWLYHU.RQWUROOHQEHUGDV.UHGLWJHVFKlIW
GHU%DQNHQZXUGHQLFKWLQGDV*HVHW]DXIJHQRPPHQZHLOLKUH8PVHW]XQJMHZHLOVYRQHLQHU
5HJLHUXQJV]XVWLPPXQJDEKlQJLJJHZHVHQZlUH7KH%XQGHVEDQNLWVHOIZDVQRWLQWHUHVWHG
LQDFTXLULQJWKHULJKWWRLPSRVHFUHGLWFHLOLQJVZKLFKZRXOGEHGHSHQGHQWRQJRYHUQPHQWGH
FLVLRQV ,UPOHU I YJO 'UU 6WXFNHQ 'LHVH 'HEDWWH IODPPWH $QIDQJ
GHU HU -DKUH ZLHGHU DXI 6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW =I II 'HXWVFKH %XQGHVEDQN
(KUOLFKHU(LQ)HVWKDOWHQDQGHU/LTXLGLWlWVVWHXHUXQJHUVFKLHQGHU%XQGHV
EDQN DXFK QDFK GHU 6FKOLHXQJ GHU DXHQZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHQ )ODQNH DOV ]X XQVLFKHU GHU YRQ
+HOPXW6FKPLGW]XQlFKVWHPSIRKOHQH:HJJJIHLQH.UHGLWSODIRQGLHUXQJLQJHPHLQVDPHU
.RPSHWHQ]PLWGHP)LQDQ]PLQLVWHULXP]XEHWUHLEHQZDUZHQLJDWWUDNWLYZHLOGLHVGLHRUJD
QLVDWRULVFKH 6HOEVWlQGLJNHLW GHU %XQGHVEDQN JHIlKUGHW KlWWH 6R NDP HV GHU %XQGHVEDQN
VHKUJHOHJHQGDGLH:LVVHQVFKDIWGLH$OWHUQDWLYHHLQHU*HOGPHQJHQNRQWUROOHLQ(LJHQUHJLH
IRUGHUWH 'LH 6FKXW]VFKLOGIXQNWLRQ YRQ *HOGPHQJHQ]LHOHQ GLH DOV ILQDQ]PDUNWWHFKQLVFKH
5HJHOQHLQH1RWHQEDQNYRUGLUHNWHQ(QG]LHOZQVFKHQYRQ6HLWHQGHU:LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLNDE
VFKLUPHQ ZXUGH VRIRUW HUNDQQW +DJHQ 1HXPDQQ 'LH GHU %XQGHVEDQN
]XJHIDOOHQHSROLWLVFKH8QDEKlQJLJNHLWZXUGHDOVHLQKRKHV*XWYHUWHLGLJW 'DV OHW]WH +LQGHUQLV EHL GHU VWUDWHJLVFKHQ :HQGH EHWUDI GLH )UDJH GHU NRQMXQNWXUSROLWL
VFKHQ $XVULFKWXQJ GHU *HOGSROLWLN 'DV ,QWHUHVVH DQ GHU 6WDELOLVLHUXQJ GHU .RQMXQNWXU XQG
GHU:DKUXQJHLQHVKRKHQ%HVFKlIWLJXQJVVWDQGHVKDWWHLQ6HOEVWYHUVWlQGQLVXQG3UD[LVGHU
%XQGHVEDQNDEOHVEDUDXVGHQ0RQDWVXQG*HVFKlIWVEHULFKWHQVWHWVHLQJURHV*HZLFKW
'LHDPHULNDQLVFKH1RWHQEDQNNRQQWHLP%UHWWRQ:RRGV6\VWHPVWHWVHLQHXQDEKlQJLJH*HOGSROL
WLNSUDNWL]LHUHQ'HUhEHUJDQJ]XHLQHPPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ.XUVZDUKLHUZHQLJHUGUlQJHQG=ZDUIROJ
WHVLHGHU%XQGHVEDQNDXI'UXFNGHV.RQJUHVVHVXQGYHUNQGHWHDEHEHQIDOOV*HOGPHQJHQ]LH
OHGLHVHZXUGHQMHGRFKELV]XP2NWREHUDOVGLH'ROODU6FKZlFKH]XHLQHPJUXQGOHJHQGHQ3R
OLWLNZHFKVHO]ZDQJQLFKWHUQVWJHQRPPHQ(PPLQJHUII
(UZXUGHMHGRFKUDVFK]XHLQHP%HIUZRUWHUGHU*HOGPHQJHQSROLWLN(PPLQJHU
'LH%XQGHVEDQNZHKUWVLFKJHJHQGLH7KHVHLKUH8QDEKlQJLJNHLWVHLHLQ2NWURLGHU$OOLLHU
WHQJHZHVHQYLHOPHKUKDEHGLHVH.RQVWUXNWLRQDXFKGHQGHXWVFKHQ9RUVWHOOXQJHQHQWVSURFKHQ$Q
GLHVHU'DUVWHOOXQJEOHLEHQ=ZHLIHO(LQHKHUWDNWLVFKHV9HUVWlQGQLVYRQ1RWHQEDQNDXWRQRPLHZLUGEHL
/XGZLJ(UKDUGLP-DQXDUGHXWOLFK,FKKDOWHHVIUDXVJHVFKORVVHQGDVLFKGLH=HQWUDOEDQN&plusmn;
ZHQQGLH$UEHLWVORVHQ]DKOHQZLHGHUHLQPDOVWHLJHQ&plusmn;ZLHGHUDXIGDVKRKH5RVHW]WXQGJOHLFKJOWLJ
]HLJW'DVJLEWHVQDWUOLFKQLFKW,QVRIHUQ]LHKWLQOHW]WHU,QVWDQ]]ZHLIHOORVLPPHUGLH3ROLWLNDEHUPDQ
PXHLQH6WHOOHGLHZLUNOLFKQXU]XP6FKXW]GHU:lKUXQJGDLVWVFKRQZHLWJHKHQGXQDEKlQJLJPD
FKHQ]LWQDFK'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQNYJO%LERZ,QGHU%HY|ONHUXQJJDEHVYHUPXW
OLFKDXFKNHLQHNODUH3UlIHUHQ]IU1RWHQEDQNDXWRQRPLH'LHVRJHQDQQWH8QDEKlQJLJNHLWGHU1RWHQ
EDQNLVWLQ'HXWVFKODQGQLFKWSRSXOlU6LHLVWQLFKWDXVGHP:LOOHQGHVGHXWVFKHQ9RONHVKHUYRUJH
JDQJHQ0LNVFK
'LHVZDUVFKRQXQPLWWHOEDUQDFKGHU:lKUXQJVUHIRUPVRXQGVHW]WHVLFKEHLGHQ'HEDWWHQ
XPGLH'0$XIZHUWXQJIRUW)UGHQDEQHXHQ%XQGHVEDQNSUlVLGHQWHQ.ODVHQKDWWHQ
:DFKVWXP XQG 3UHLVVWDELOLWlW JOHLFKHV *HZLFKW 'HU )RUGHUXQJ GLH *HOGSROLWLN PLWWHOIULVWLJ
DP 3URGXNWLRQVSRWHQWLDO ]X RULHQWLHUHQ XQG UHJHOJHEXQGHQ DQ]XOHJHQ VWDQG GLH %XQGHV
EDQN]XQlFKVWVNHSWLVFKJHJHQEHU:HLOGLH]\NOLVFKHQ6FKZDQNXQJHQ]XJHQRPPHQKlW
WHQPVVHPDQVLFKXPLKUH6WDELOLVLHUXQJNPPHUQ*HUDGHEHLGHUNXU]IULVWLJHQ3UR]H
SROLWLN KDEH GLH .UHGLWSROLWLN HLQHQ 9RUWHLO JHJHQEHU DQGHUHQ NRQMXQNWXUSROLWLVFKHQ ,QVWUX
PHQWHQ 0DQ EHIUFKWHWH DXFK GD HLQH DOV %HJOHLWHUVFKHLQXQJ HLQHU VWULNW UHJHOJHEXQGH
QHQ*HOGSROLWLNDXIWUHWHQGH$UEHLWVORVLJNHLWSROLWLVFKQLFKWWROHULHUWZHUGHQN|QQWH'HXWVFKH
%XQGHVEDQN II I ,UPOHU +ROWIUHULFK +DJHQ 5LFKWHU
(V ZDU DOOHQ DP ZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHQ 3UR]H %HWHLOLJWHQ NODU GD HLQH *HOGZHUWVLFKH
UXQJGLH$XIJDEHGHUYRQ%XQGHVNDQ]OHU%UDQGWJHJHEHQHQ9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJVJDUDQWLHYHU
ODQJWH 'LH LQ $EVWLPPXQJ PLW GHU 5HJLHUXQJ GXUFKJHIKUWH VFKDUIH 5HVWULNWLRQVSROLWLN
PDUNLHUWHGHQ(LQVWLHJLQHLQQHXHV5HJLPH'LH9RUJDEHHLQHVEHVWLPPWHQ*HOG
PHQJHQZDFKVWXPV HUODXEWH EHL JHJHEHQHU 8PODXIJHVFKZLQGLJNHLW 9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJ QXU
EHL GHU DQJHVWUHEWHQ =LHOLQIODWLRQVUDWH 'DPLW ZDU HLQH QHXH 5ROOHQYHUWHLOXQJ LQ GHU :LUW
VFKDIWVSROLWLNYHUEXQGHQ(EHQVRZLHGLH5HJLHUXQJNHLQHVWDELOLWlWVSROLWLVFKH9HUDQWZRUWXQJ
IUGHQ*HOGZHUWEHUQHKPHQZROOWHOHKQWHGLH%XQGHVEDQNJUXQGVlW]OLFKGLH=XVWlQGLJNHLW
IUGLHDOOJHPHLQHPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKH6WDELOLWlWDE'LH$QNQGLJXQJHLQHV*HOGPHQJHQ]LHOV
FODULILHG WKH UXOHV RI WKH JDPH PRQHWDU\ SROLF\ ZDV QR ORQJHU WR EH PDGH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU
HPSOR\PHQW+DJHQYJO&amp;DVVHO7KLHPH'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
(PPLQJHU+ROWIUHULFK1HXPDQQ
(VJLQJDOVRZHQLJHUXPGLH)UDJHGHU1HXWUDOLWlWGHU*HOGSROLWLNVRQGHUQXPHLQHRUJD
QLVDWRULVFKXQGDQUHL]WKHRUHWLVFKHIIL]LHQWH$EVWHFNXQJYRQ=XVWlQGLJNHLWVEHUHLFKHQ)UGLH
5HJLHUXQJVVHLWHXQGVHOEVWIUGLH*HZHUNVFKDIWHQZDUQXQHLQH$UW6HOEVWELQGXQJLQVWLWX
WLRQDOLVLHUW GLH DXVVFKOLHHQ VROOWH GD GHU 9HUWHLOXQJVVWUHLW XP 5HVVRXUFHQ XQG (LQNRP
PHQ ]XODVWHQ GHV *HOGZHUWV JLQJ 'LHVH %LQGXQJ ZDU ]XJOHLFK HLQH (QWODVWXQJ ZHLO GDV
ODQJIULVWLJH=LHOGHU:lKUXQJVVLFKHUXQJQXQDQHLQHHLJHQVGDIUJHVFKDIIHQH,QVWDQ]GH
OHJLHUWZDUPDQPXWHQLFKWVHOEVWHLQHSHUPDQHQWH$EZlJXQJ]ZLVFKHQNXU]XQGODQJIUL
VWLJHQ,QWHUHVVHQYRUQHKPHQ)UGLH%XQGHVEDQNDQGHUHUVHLWVZDUGLH$UEHLWLQVRIHUQHLQID
FKHU JHZRUGHQ ZHLO GDV %HVFKlIWLJXQJVSUREOHP PLW %LOOLJXQJ GHU :LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLN DQ GHQ
0DUNW]XUFNYHUZLHVHQGKSULYDWLVLHUWZRUGHQZDU
,P=HQWUDOEDQNUDWVSLHOWHGDV%HVFKlIWLJXQJV]LHOLQGHQHU-DKUHQ LQWHUQ MHGRFK ZHLWHUKLQ HLQH
JURH5ROOH(VJDENHLQHHLQKHOOLJH=XVWLPPXQJIUGDVQHXH.RQ]HSW'LH*HOGPHQJHQ]LHOHLQGHQ
HUVWHQ-DKUHQZDUHQ.RPSURPLIRUPHOQGHQHQYHUVFKLHGHQH)UDNWLRQHQPLWMHZHLOVXQWHUVFKLHGOLFKHU
3UREOHPVLFKW]XVWLPPHQNRQQWHQ+DJHQ,PEULJHQZDUHQDXFKGLHDNDGHPLVFKHQ$Q
KlQJHUGHV0RQHWDULVPXVQLFKWLPPHUIUHLQHVWULNWH5HJHOELQGXQJ6RSOlGLHUWH1HXPDQQIUHLQH
1RWDXVVWLHJVNODXVHOEHLKRKHU$UEHLWVORVLJNHLW5LFKWHU
'HUSUDJPDWLVFKH0RQHWDULVPXV
)DNWLVFK HQWVWDQG =HQWUDOEDQNJHOG LQ GHU %XQGHVUHSXEOLN DXI %HGDUI GK GXUFK HLQH HQW
VSUHFKHQGH1DFKIUDJHGHU%DQNHQ*HOGDQJHERWXQG*HOGQDFKIUDJHVLQGGDPLWQLFKWXQDE
KlQJLJYRQHLQDQGHU*HEDXHU'DJHJHQZLUGGDV*HOGDQJHERWQDFKGHUPRQHWDULVWL
VFKHQ 7KHRULH ]% GXUFK UHJHOPlLJH 2IIHQPDUNWJHVFKlIWH LQ GHQ :LUWVFKDIWVNUHLVODXI JH
JHEHQXQGZLUGGRUW]XP$XVJDQJVSXQNWIUGLHREHQEHVFKULHEHQHQ3RUWIROLRDQSDVVXQJHQ
$E YHUVXFKWH PDQ ]XQlFKVW GLHVHV .RQ]HSW XP]XVHW]HQ 3ULQ]LSLHOO VWHXHUW QXQ GLH
1RWHQEDQNXQPLWWHOEDUGLH6FKDIIXQJYRQ=HQWUDOEDQNJHOG'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
YJO,UPOHU1HXEDXHU8QWHUGHU1HEHQEHGLQJXQJGHUHUIROJWHQ%HVHLWLJXQJYRQ
/LTXLGLWlWVUHVHUYHQ PXWH GLHV ]X VWDUNHQ =LQVDXVVFKOlJHQ DP *HOGPDUNW IKUHQ GD GLH
*HOGQDFKIUDJH GHU %DQNHQ LQVEHVRQGHUH IU GLH 0LQGHVWUHVHUYHQ ]LQVXQHODVWLVFK ZDU $OOH
([SHULPHQWHHLQHUNRQVHTXHQWHQ*HOGDQJHERWVVWHXHUXQJ]HLJHQGLHVHV0XVWHUHLQHUJHVWLH
JHQHQ=LQVYRODWLOLWlW$EELOGXQJGLHIUGLH6WDELOLWlWGHU)LQDQ]XQG'HYLVHQPlUNWHDE
WUlJOLFKLVW'LH%XQGHVEDQNNHKUWHGHQQDXFKUDVFK]XHLQHPPRGHUDWHQ.XUV]XUFNEHL
GHP GLH YRQ GHU 9HUZHQGXQJ KHU GHILQLHUWH =HQWUDOEDQNJHOGPHQJH NXU]IULVWLJ DXI GHQ JH
VFKlW]WHQ %HGDUI KLQ NDONXOLHUW ZXUGH 9HUVWlQGOLFKHUZHLVH SURYR]LHUWH GLHV GLH .ULWLN GHU
0RQHWDULVWHQ1HXPDQQ+DJHQ
'DV *HOGPHQJHQZDFKVWXP IXQJLHUWH QXQ IRUPDO DOV PRQHWlUHV =ZLVFKHQ]LHO GDV PLW
+LOIHGHU9DULDWLRQGHUNXU]IULVWLJHQ=LQVHQDQJHVWHXHUWZHUGHQVROOWH'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
II6FKOHVLQJHU)DNWLVFKRULHQWLHUWHVLFKGLH=LQVSROLWLNDEHUQXUVHKU
YDJHDQGHUGXUFKGDV:DFKVWXPV]LHOJHJHEHQHQ5HVWULNWLRQ%XQGHVEDQNSUlVLGHQW(PPLQ
JHU KLHOW LP 1DFKKLQHLQ GLH GDEHL DXIWUHWHQGHQ =LHOYHUIHKOXQJHQ IU XQZLFKWLJ
VRODQJHGLHPRQHWlUH6WDELOLWlWJHZDKUWEOLHE'LH=LHOEHUVFKUHLWXQJHQZDUHQMHGRFKVRHU
KHEOLFK GD LQWHUQH 6WLPPHQ GDYRU ZDUQWHQ GLH %XQGHVEDQN ZUGH VLFK PLW LKUHP *HOG
PHQJHQNRQ]HSW OlFKHUOLFK PDFKHQ (LQ $EUFNHQ YRQ GHU *HOGPHQJHQVWHXHUXQJ HUVFKLHQ
ZLHGHUXPSROLWLVFKLQRSSRUWXQGD5HJLHUXQJXQGgIIHQWOLFKNHLWGLHVHV.RQ]HSWSRVLWLYDXIJH
QRPPHQKDWWHQ
6FKOLHOLFK ZXUGH GLH *HOGPHQJHQSROLWLN GXUFK GLH (WDEOLHUXQJ GHV (XURSlLVFKHQ :lK
UXQJVV\VWHPVJHUHWWHW'DGLH%XQGHVEDQNKLHUDXIJUXQGGHUV\PPHWULVFKHQ,QWHUYHQWLRQV
YHUSIOLFKWXQJHQLP)HVWNXUVV\VWHPDEHUPDOVGHQ9HUOXVWGHUPRQHWlUHQ.RQWUROOHEHIUFKWH
WHZDUHVJHERWHQQHEHQGHP:HFKVHONXUVGLH*HOGPHQJHQVWHXHUXQJDOVLQWHUQHQ$QNHU
IUGLH*HOGSROLWLNEHL]XEHKDOWHQ+DJHQ'LHVHUNRQQWHGDQQLP.RQIOLNWIDOODOV
XQYHU]LFKWEDUIUGLH:DKUXQJGHU*HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlWGDUJHVWHOOWXQGDOV$UJXPHQWIUHLQ$E
UFNHQYRQGHU:HFKVHONXUVELQGXQJJHQXW]WZHUGHQ'LH%XQGHVEDQNOLHVLFKLQHLQHPLQ
WHUQHQ3DSLHUHLQHGHUDUWLJH1RWDXVVWLHJVNODXVHODXVGHP(:6]XVLFKHUQ'LH([LVWHQ]GLH
(VZlUHIDOVFKDQ]XQHKPHQGDGLH*HOGPHQJH&plusmn; DXFKGLHYRQXQVDQYLVLHUWH=HQWUDOEDQNJHOG
PHQJH&plusmn; NXU]IULVWLJXQGH[DNWJHVWHXHUWZHUGHQN|QQWH.ODVHQYJO'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
%RFNHOPDQQ&amp;DHVDU(PPLQJHU5LFKWHU
0RQDWV=LQV
7DJHVJHOG
6FKZHL]
)HGHUDO)XQGV
$EELOGXQJ=LQVYRODWLOLWlWLQ3KDVHQVWULNWHU*HOGPHQJHQNRQWUROOH
VHV (PPLQJHU%ULHIHV KDW GDQQ $QIDQJ GHU HU -DKUH GLH 6SHNXODQWHQ ]X HUIROJUHLFKHQ
$QJULIIHQ DXI GLH 6FKZDFKZlKUXQJHQ LP (:6 HUPXQWHUW .HQHQ (LFKHQJUHHQ II1HXPDQQ
5HVPHH
'LH WKHRUHWLVFKH 'HEDWWH ]ZLVFKHQ 3RVWNH\QHVLDQLVPXV XQG 0RQHWDULVPXV ZDU QLFKW VHKU
HUJLHELJ9LHOHVZXUGH]XHLQHPNRQ]HSWLRQHOOHQ*HJHQVDW]DXIJHEDXVFKWZDVLQ:DKUKHLW
QXUHLQ5HIOH[XQWHUVFKLHGOLFKHU7KHRULHVSUDFKHQRGHUGLYHUJLHUHQGHUHPSLULVFKHU(LQVFKlW
]XQJHQZDU%HLGH6FKXOHQNRQQWHQVLFKWKHRUHWLVFKH0lQJHOLQGHU$UJXPHQWDWLRQYRUZHU
IHQ3DUWLHOOH6WlUNHQGHV0RQHWDULVPXVLQDQDO\WLVFKHU+LQVLFKWEHGHXWHWHQQLFKWXQEHGLQJW
DXFKHLQHKRKHZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH5HOHYDQ]'LHZlKUXQJVSROLWLVFKHQ*HJHEHQKHLWHQGHV
%UHWWRQ:RRGV6\VWHPV PLW LKUHQ .RQVHTXHQ]HQ IU GLH QDWLRQDOH *HOGVFK|SIXQJ ZXUGHQ
YRQ EHLGHQ 6FKXOHQ NDXP DQJHPHVVHQ EHUFNVLFKWLJW 'LH .ULWLN DP 5DGFOLIIH5HSRUW PX
YRQGDKHUUHODWLYLHUWZHUGHQ6FKOLHOLFKLVWHVDOVHLQ0\WKRVDQ]XVHKHQGDGLH.H\QHVLD
QHU HLQH hEHUEHVFKlIWLJXQJVSROLWLN YRU GHP +LQWHUJUXQG GHU 3KLOOLSV.XUYH IDYRULVLHUW RGHU
EHWULHEHQKlWWHQ
,QVEHVRQGHUHLQ'HXWVFKODQGXQWHUVFKLHGVLFKGLHPDNUR|NRQRPLVFKHXQGZLUWVFKDIWVSROL
WLVFKH .RQVWHOODWLRQ YRQ GHP 6]HQDULR GDV )ULHGPDQ LQ VHLQHU EHUKPWHQ 5HGH EHU GLH
5ROOH GHU *HOGSROLWLN VNL]]LHUW KDWWH 'DJHJHQ ZDU HV GDV 9HUGLHQVW GHU 0RQHWDULVWHQ GLH
WKHRUHWLVFKHQ6FKZlFKHQGHUKHUUVFKHQGHQGHXWVFKHQ6FKXOHLQGHU*HOGWKHRULHKHUDXVJH
DUEHLWHW ]X KDEHQ GHQHQ HQWVSUHFKHQGH 0lQJHO LP JHOGSROLWLVFKHQ .RQ]HSW GHU %XQGHV
EDQNJHJHQEHUVWDQGHQ'HQQRFKKDWQLFKWGLH$QHUNHQQXQJGHUWKHRUHWLVFKHQhEHUOHJHQ
KHLWGHV0RQHWDULVPXVGHQ.XUVZHFKVHOLQGHUGHXWVFKHQ*HOGSROLWLNEHZLUNW,QVWDELOLWlWV
SROLWLVFKHU+LQVLFKWZDUGHUHQWVFKHLGHQGH3XQNWGHUDXVGHU9HU]ZHLIOXQJJHZDFKVHQHSROL
WLVFKH 0XW HLQH VWDUUH *HOGYHUVRUJXQJ DOV PDNUR|NRQRPLVFKH %XGJHWEHVFKUlQNXQJ JH
JHQ GHQ LQIODWLRQlUHQ 9HUWHLOXQJVNDPSI HLQ]XVHW]HQ GHQ PDQ DQDO\WLVFK QRFK JDQ] LP
'HQNPXVWHUGHV.H\QHVLDQLVPXVVDK'LH%XQGHVEDQNQXW]WHGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH.RQWHUUH
YROXWLRQ LQ GHU :LVVHQVFKDIW XP LQWHUQH XQG H[WHUQH 6WUDWHJLHSUREOHPH ]X O|VHQ +DJHQ
'DV.RQ]HSWGHU*HOGPHQJHQVWHXHUXQJEHI|UGHUWHZHJHQVHLQHU,QNRPSDWLELOLWlWPLW
HLQHP )HVWNXUVV\VWHP GHQ $XVVWLHJ DXV GHP %UHWWRQ:RRGV6\VWHP EHIUHLWH GDUEHU GLH
%XQGHVEDQN YRP 'UXFN GHU 'HYLVHQPlUNWH VWHOOWH LKUH $XWRULWlW LP %DQNV\VWHP ZLHGHU
KHUXQGIHVWLJWHLKUH8QDEKlQJLJNHLWYRQGHU5HJLHUXQJ
:LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH6WUDWHJLHQZHUGHQQLFKWLQ]HLWORVHU3HUVSHNWLYHQDFKGHP(UJHEQLV
HLQHV WKHRUHWLVFKHQ :HWWVWUHLWV XP GDV EHVWH 0RGHOO JHZlKOW %HL .XKQ ILQGHWVLFKYLHOPHKUXPJHNHKUWGLH7KHVHGDHLQ7KHRULHQVWUHLWDXFKGXUFKZLVVHQVFKDIWV
H[WHUQH )DNWRUHQ HQWVFKLHGHQ ZHUGHQ NDQQ GD]X N|QQHQ DXFK JHVHOOVFKDIWOLFKH XQG ZLUW
VFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH .UlIWH JHK|UHQ :LUWVFKDIWOLFKH .ULVHQ &plusmn; YHUVWDQGHQ DOV JHVHOOVFKDIWOLFKH
(QWVFKHLGXQJVVLWXDWLRQHQ&plusmn;VLQGDXVZLUWVFKDIWVKLVWRULVFKHU6LFKWVWHWVHLQPDOLJH(UHLJQLVVH
REZRKO HV LQKDOWOLFK XP lKQOLFK JHODJHUWH )UDJHQ JHKHQ NDQQ 'HU GURKHQGH 9HUOXVW GHU
ZlKUXQJVSROLWLVFKHQ $XWRQRPLH PLW GHU )ROJH HLQHU HVNDOLHUHQGHQ ,QIODWLRQ LQ 'HXWVFKODQG
KDWWHHLQHQKLVWRULVFKHQ9RUOlXIHULQGHU'LOHPPDVLWXDWLRQ(QJODQGVQDFKGHP(UVWHQ:HOW
NULHJ DOV GLH DQVWHKHQGH :LHGHUKHUVWHOOXQJ GHU ZlKUXQJVSROLWLVFKHQ %LQGXQJ GDV VSLHJHO
YHUNHKUWH 6]HQDULR HLQHU GURKHQGHQ 'HIODWLRQ HUZDUWHQ OLH .H\QHV
II HUIROJOR
VHV :HUEHQ XP HLQH 3ROLWLN GLH QDWLRQDOH 3UHLVQLYHDXVWDELOLWlW DOV =LHO DQ GLH 6WHOOH YRQ
:HFKVHONXUVVWDELOLWlWVHW]HQVROOWHIDQGIQI]LJ-DKUHVSlWHUHLQH3DUDOOHOHLQGHUHUIROJUHL
FKHQ.DPSDJQH]XJXQVWHQGHU6WDELOLVLHUXQJGHVQDWLRQDOHQ:HUWVWDQGDUGV,QEHLGHQ)lO
OHQJLQJHVXPGLH+HUVWHOOXQJGHULQVWLWXWLRQHOOHQ$XWRQRPLHGHU*HOGSROLWLN,QEHLGHQ)lOOHQ
ZDUGLH(QWVFKHLGXQJ]XGHUMHZHLOVJHZlKOWHQ6WUDWHJLHSIDGDEKlQJLJGKJHSUlJWYRQGHQ
KLVWRULVFKJHJHEHQHQ3UREOHPSHU]HSWLRQHQXQG,QWHUHVVHQ
1XU6WW]HOKDWWHVFKRQ LQ GHQ HU -DKUHQ JHDKQW GD GLH IROJHQGH (SRFKH IOH[LEOHU .XUVH GLH
1RWHQEDQNHQYRUPLQGHVWHQVHEHQVRJURH3UREOHPHVWHOOHQZUGH6WW]HO5LFKWHU
(EHQGLHVVSULFKWJHJHQHLQHYHUVFKLHGHQWOLFKJHIRUGHUWH5FNNHKU]XU*HOGPHQJHQSROL
WLNLQGHUJHJHQZlUWLJHQ/DJH'LH=HQWUDOEDQNHQKDEHQLQGHU3ROLWLN XQG DXI GHQ )LQDQ]
PlUNWHQHLQHVWDUNH3RVLWLRQGLH,QIODWLRQLVWXQWHU.RQWUROOH'DEHLZLUG]ZDULQ(XURSDQDFK
ZLHYRUDXIGHQHQJHQ=XVDPPHQKDQJ]ZLVFKHQ*HOGPHQJHQXQG3UHLVHQWZLFNOXQJKLQJH
ZLHVHQ$EHUHVIlOOWHEHQDXFKLPPHUPHKUDXIGDEHLGLHVHQ1DFKZHLVHQGLH*HOGPHQ
JHVRODQJHXPGHILQLHUWXQGJHILOWHUWZLUGELVVLFKGDVJHZQVFKWHHPSLULVFKH5HVXOWDWHLQ
VWHOOW'LHHUNHQQWQLVWKHRUHWLVFKH3UREOHPDWLNHLQHVVROFKHQ9RUJHKHQVPXKLHUQLFKWZHL
WHUDXVJHIKUWZHUGHQ%RILQJHUI'LH*HVFKLFKWHGHU4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULHZXUGHVWHWV
YRQGHU'LVNXVVLRQXPGHQ*HOGEHJULIIEHJOHLWHW'LHLP/DXIHGHU=HLWLPPHUZHLWHUJHIDWH
*HOGPHQJHEHVWlWLJWOHW]WHQGOLFKLQVRIHUQGHQ5DGFOLIIH5HSRUWDOV1RWHQEDQNHQVLFKXPGLH
(UIDVVXQJGHU*HVDPWOLTXLGLWlWLQHLQHU9RONVZLUWVFKDIWEHPKHQ
'LH4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULHJHUlWVRYRQPHKUHUHQ6HLWHQLQ%HGUlQJQLV1LFKWQXUGHU*HOGEH
JULII DXFK GLH 'HILQLWLRQ GHV 3UHLVQLYHDXV ZLUG PLW GHU DNWXHOOHQ 'HEDWWH XP GLH (LQEH]LH
KXQJGHU9HUP|JHQVSUHLVHXQGHXWOLFK'HU6WUHLWXPGLH)UDJHYRQ([RJHQLWlWRGHU(QGRJH
QLWlWGHU*HOGPHQJHLVW]XJXQVWHQGHUOHW]WJHQDQQWHQ3RVLWLRQHQWVFKLHGHQ6FKHIROG
VFKOLHOLFKZDUMDVFKRQGLH*ROGPHQJHLP-DKUKXQGHUWHLQHHQGRJHQH*U|HHLQ5H
IOH[GHUYRUDQJHJDQJHQHQ'HIODWLRQGLHGLH6XFKHQDFKGHPJHOEHQ0HWDOO]XHLQHUOXNUDWL
YHQ ,QYHVWLWLRQ PDFKWH 'HU 0RQHWDULVPXV ZDU LP :HOWPDVWDE JHVHKHQ HLQH KLVWRULVFKH
5HDNWLRQGLHZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKH$QWZRUWDXIGLH*HOGSROLWLNLQGHQ86$GHUHQ:lKUXQJVEH
K|UGHQLPZHVHQWOLFKHQGLH5ROOHVSLHOWHQZHOFKHGLH*HOGWKHRULHGHV-DKUKXQGHUWVGHQ
*ROGJUlEHUQ]XVFKULHE/DLGOHU1RED\
/LWHUDWXU
$FNOH\*0DFURHFRQRPLF7KHRU\1HZ&lt;RUN
$OYDUH])XD,QWHUHVW5DWHVDQG,QIODWLRQ$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ3DSHUVDQG3URFHH
GLQJV
$QGHUVHQ/&amp;-RUGDQ-/*HOGXQGILVNDOSROLWLVFKH0DQDKPHQ&plusmn;(LQ7HVWLKUHUUHODWLYHQ
%HGHXWXQJ,Q.DOPEDFK3+J'HUQHXH0RQHWDULVPXV0QFKHQ
%DUUR 5 - *RUGRQ ' % $ 3RVLWLYH 7KHRU\ RI 0RQHWDU\ 3ROLF\ LQ D 1DWXUDO 5DWH 0RGHO
-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\
%KDGXUL$6WHLQGO-7KH5LVHRI0RQHWDULVPDVD6RFLDO'RFWULQH,Q$UHVWLV36NRXUDV
7+J3RVW.H\QHVLDQ(FRQRPLF7KHRU\1HZ&lt;RUN
%LERZ - ,QYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH ,QWHOOHFWXDO 2ULJLQV RI (XURODQG&para;V 0DFURHFRQRPLF 3ROLF\ 5HJLPH
&amp;HQWUDO%DQNLQJ,QVWLWXWLRQVDQG7UDGLWLRQVLQ:HVW*HUPDQ\$IWHUWKH:DU7KH/HY\(FRQRPLFV
,QVWLWXWH:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R1HZ&lt;RUN
%ODQFKDUG2-7KH/XFDV&amp;ULWLTXHDQGWKH9ROFNHU'HIODWLRQ$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
3DSHUVDQG3URFHHGLQJV
'DV MQJVWH %HLVSLHO LVW GDV .RQ]HSW GHV FRUH PRQH\ EHL GHP DEHU HEHQIDOOV 6FKZDQNXQJHQ
GHV*HOGPHQJHQZDFKVWXPVPLWHLQHP=\NOXVELV]X-DKUHQDOVQLFKWUHOHYDQWIUGLH,QIODWLRQJH
ZHUWHW ZHUGHQ Neumann/Gerber 2004, 'HXWVFKH %XQGHVEDQN ,QZLHZHLW HLQH GHUDUWLJH (U
NHQQWQLVIU1RWHQEDQNHQQRFKKLOIUHLFKLVWVHLGDKLQJHVWHOOW
%ODXJ0:K\,VWKH4XDQWLW\7KHRU\RI0RQH\WKH2OGHVW6XUYLYLQJ7KHRU\LQ(FRQRPLFV,Q
'HUVXD7KH4XDQWLW\7KHRU\RI0RQH\&plusmn;)URP/RFNHWR.H\QHVDQG)ULHGPDQ$OGHUVKRW
%OHVVLQJ.'DV3UREOHPGHU*HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW,Q(UEH:XD+J:lKUXQJ]ZLVFKHQ3R
OLWLNXQG:LUWVFKDIW6WXWWJDUW
%OHVVLQJ . 1RWHQEDQN 6WDDW XQG :LUWVFKDIW 6FKPROOHUV -DKUEXFK IU *HVHW]JHEXQJ 9HU
ZDOWXQJXQG9RONVZLUWVFKDIW
%OLQGHU$67KH5XOHVYHUVXV'LVFUHWLRQ'HEDWHLQWKH/LJKWRI5HFHQW([SHULHQFH:HOWZLUW
VFKDIWOLFKHV$UFKLY
%RFNHOPDQQ+'LH5ROOHGHU%DQNHQLQGHU*HOGSROLWLN.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
%RILQJHU30RQHWDU\3ROLF\&plusmn;*RDOV,QVWLWXWLRQV6WUDWHJLHVDQG,QVWUXPHQWV2[IRUG
%UXQQHU.7KH5ROHRI0RQH\DQG0RQHWDU\3ROLF\)HGHUDO5HVHUYH%DQNRI6W/RXLV5H
YLHZ-XOL
%UXQQHU.'LH0RQHWDULVWLVFKH5HYROXWLRQGHU*HOGWKHRULH,Q.DOPEDFK3+J'HUQHXH
0RQHWDULVPXV0QFKHQ
%UXQQHU . (LQH 1HXIRUPXOLHUXQJ GHU 4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULH GHV *HOGHV &plusmn; 'LH 7KHRULH UHODWLYHU
3UHLVHGHV*HOGHVGHV2XWSXWVXQGGHU%HVFKlIWLJXQJ.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
%UXQQHU.+DV0RQHWDULVP)DLOHG&quot;&amp;DWR-RXUQDO
%UXQQHU.0HOW]HU$+/LTXLGLW\7UDSVIRU0RQH\%DQN&amp;UHGLWDQG,QWHUHVW5DWHV-RXUQDO
RI3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\
%UXQQHU.0HOW]HU$+7KH8VHVRI0RQH\&plusmn; 0RQH\LQWKH7KHRU\RIDQ([FKDQJH(FR
QRP\$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
%UXQQHU.0HOW]HU$+)ULHGPDQ
V0RQHWDU\7KHRU\,Q*RUGRQ5-+J0LOWRQ)ULHG
V0RQHWDU\)UDPHZRUN&plusmn;$'HEDWHZLWK+LV&amp;ULWLFV&amp;KLFDJR
%UXQQHU.1HXPDQQ0-0$QDO\VHPRQHWlUHU+\SRWKHVHQGHV6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDWHV
]XU%HJXWDFKWXQJGHUJHVDPWZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHQ(QWZLFNOXQJ.\NORV
%UXQQHU.+J3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH)LUVW.RQVWDQ]HU6HPLQDURQ0RQHWDU\7KHRU\DQG0RQH
WDU\3ROLF\%HLKHIWH]X.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO%HUOLQ
%XUFKDUGW0'LH6FKHLQUHYROXWLRQGHU*HOGWKHRULHGXUFK0LOWRQ)ULHGPDQ=HLWVFKULIWIUGLH
JHVDPWH6WDDWVZLVVHQVFKDIW
&amp;DHVDU 5 'LH 5ROOH GHU 0LQGHVWUHVHUYHSROLWLN LP 5DKPHQ GHU *HOGEDVLVNRQ]HSWLRQ GHV
%XQGHVEDQN-DKUEFKHUIU1DWLRQDO|NRQRPLHXQG6WDWLVWLN
&amp;DJDQ30RQHWDULVPLQ+LVWRULFDO3HUVSHFWLYH.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
&amp;DVVHO'7KLHPH+-'LH86,QIODWLRQVEHNlPSIXQJ&plusmn; (LQLJH.RQVHTXHQ]HQ
IUGLH%XQGHVUHSXEOLN'HXWVFKODQG.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
&amp;DVVHO*7KHRUHWLVFKH6R]LDO|NRQRPLH$XIO/HLS]LJ
&amp;ODDVVHQ(03UREOHPHGHU*HOGWKHRULH%HUOLQXD
'DYLGVRQ3$.H\QHVLDQ9LHZRI)ULHGPDQ
V7KHRUHWLFDO)UDPHZRUNIRU0RQHWDU\$QDO\VLV
,Q*RUGRQ5-+J0LOWRQ)ULHGPDQ
V0RQHWDU\)UDPHZRUN&plusmn; $'HEDWHZLWK+LV&amp;ULWLFV&amp;KLFD
'H9URH\07KH0DUVKDOOLDQ0DUNHWDQGWKH:DOUDVLDQ(FRQRP\&plusmn;7ZR,QFRPSDWLEOH%HGIHO
ORZV6FRWWLVK-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\
'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN*HVFKlIWVEHULFKW)UDQNIXUW
'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN=XUOlQJHUIULVWLJHQ(QWZLFNOXQJXQG.RQWUROOHGHV*HOGYROXPHQV0R
QDWVEHULFKW-DQXDU
'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN=XP=XVDPPHQKDQJ]ZLVFKHQ*HOGPHQJHQXQG3UHLVHQWZLFNOXQJLQ
GHU%XQGHVUHSXEOLN'HXWVFKODQG0RQDWVEHULFKW-DQXDU
'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN'HU=HQWUDOEDQNUDWYRUIQI]LJ-DKUHQ0RQDWVEHULFKW0lU]
'HXWVFKH %XQGHVEDQN 0HKU )OH[LELOLWlW DP GHXWVFKHQ $UEHLWVPDUNW 0RQDWVEHULFKW 6HSWHP
'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN'HU=XVDPPHQKDQJ]ZLVFKHQ*HOGPHQJHXQG3UHLVHQ0RQDWVEHULFKW
-DQXDU
'UU('LH$XVJHVWDOWXQJ GHU *HOGSROLWLN DXIJUXQG GHU QHXHUHQ JHOGWKHRUHWLVFKHQ (UNHQQW
QLVVHXQGZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHQ(UIDKUXQJHQ,Q$QGUHDH&amp;$XD+J*HOGWKHRULHXQG*HOG
SROLWLN%HUOLQ
(KUOLFKHU:=XU1HXRUGQXQJGHV,QVWUXPHQWDULXPVGHU'HXWVFKHQ%XQGHVEDQN.UHGLWXQG
.DSLWDO
(LFKHQJUHHQ%&amp;RQGXFWLQJWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UFKHVWUD&plusmn;%DQNRI(QJODQG/HDGHUVKLSXQGHU
WKH&amp;ODVVLFDO*ROG6WDQGDUG-RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQH\DQG)LQDQFH
(LFKHQJUHHQ % 9RP *ROGVWDQGDUG ]XP (XUR &plusmn; 'LH *HVFKLFKWH GHV LQWHUQDWLRQDOHQ :lK
UXQJVV\VWHPV%HUOLQ
(PPLQJHU2'0DUN'ROODU:lKUXQJVNULVHQ6WXWWJDUW
(QNH+0DQHYDO+'LH(LQIOVVHGHV%HVFKlIWLJXQJVJUDGHVXQGGHU3UHLVHQWZLFNOXQJDXI
GLH /RKQHQWZLFNOXQJ LQ GHU %XQGHVUHSXEOLN 'HXWVFKODQG -DKUEFKHU IU 1DWLRQDO|NRQRPLH XQG
6WDWLVWLN
(XFNHQ:*UXQGVlW]HGHU:LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLN5HLQEHN
)DQG ' , (LQ PRQHWDULVWLVFKHV 0RGHOO GHV *HOGZLUNXQJVSUR]HVVHV .UHGLW XQG .DSLWDO )DXW]:0D(LQH$QDO\VHYRQ&amp;ODXV.|KOHUV7KHRULHGHU/LTXLGLWlWVVDOGHQ-DKUEFKHUIU
1DWLRQDO|NRQRPLHXQG6WDWLVWLN
)DXW]:0 E $QDO\VH HLQHU JHOG XQG NUHGLWSROLWLVFKHQ .RQ]HSWLRQ GHU 'HXWVFKHQ %XQGHV
EDQNIUGLH-DKUHELVHWZD.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
)UDWLDQQL0+DJHQ-YRQ7KH.RQVWDQ]6HPLQDURQ0RQHWDU\7KHRU\DQG3ROLF\DW7KLUW\
=(,:RUNLQJ3DSHU%%RQQ
)ULHGPDQ % 0 7KH 7KHRUHWLFDO 1RQGHEDWH DERXW 0RQHWDULVP .UHGLW XQG .DSLWDO )ULHGPDQ0'LH4XDQWLWlWVWKHRULHGHV*HOGHV&plusmn;(LQH1HXIRUPXOLHUXQJ,Q'HUV'LHRSWLPD
OH*HOGPHQJHXQGDQGHUH(VVD\V)UDQNIXUW
)ULHGPDQ07KH5ROHRI0RQHWDU\3ROLF\$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
)ULHGPDQ0'LH*HJHQUHYROXWLRQLQGHU*HOGWKHRULH,Q.DOPEDFK3+J'HUQHXH0RQH
WDULVPXV0QFKHQ
)ULHGPDQ0D$7KHRUHWLFDO)UDPHZRUNIRU0RQHWDU\$QDO\VLV,Q*RUGRQ5-+J0LOWRQ
)ULHGPDQ
)ULHGPDQ0E&amp;RPPHQWVRQWKH&amp;ULWLFV,Q*RUGRQ5-+J0LOWRQ)ULHGPDQ
V0RQHWDU\
)UDPHZRUN&plusmn;$'HEDWHZLWK+LV&amp;ULWLFV&amp;KLFDJR
)ULHGPDQ04XDQWLW\7KHRU\RI0RQH\,Q(DWZHOO-XD+J7KH1HZ3DOJUDYH'LFWLRQD
U\RI0RQH\DQG)LQDQFH/RQGRQ%DVLQJVWRNH
*HEDXHU:7KH7KHRU\RI0RQHWDULVP=HLWVFKULIWIUGLHJHVDPWH6WDDWVZLVVHQVFKDIW
*HEDXHU:*HOG&plusmn;$QJHERWYHUVXV1DFKIUDJH,Q%RILQJHU3.HWWHUHU.++J1HXHUH
(QWZLFNOXQJHQLQ*HOGWKHRULHXQG*HOGSROLWLN&plusmn;,PSOLNDWLRQHQIUGLH(XURSlLVFKH:lKUXQJVXQLRQ
7ELQJHQ
*RRGKDUW &amp; $ ( 7KH ,PSRUWDQFH RI 0RQH\ %DQN RI (QJODQG 4XDUWHUO\ %XOOHWLQ *RRGKDUW&amp;$(7KH&amp;RQGXFWRI0RQHWDU\3ROLF\(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO
+DJHQ-YRQ*HOGSROLWLNDXIQHXHQ:HJHQ,Q'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN+J)QI
]LJ-DKUH'HXWVFKH0DUN&plusmn;1RWHQEDQNXQG:lKUXQJLQ'HXWVFKODQGVHLW0QFKHQ
+DJHQ-YRQ0RQH\*URZWK7DUJHWLQJE\WKH%XQGHVEDQN-RXUQDORI0RQHWDU\(FRQRPLFV
+DKQ)+3URIHVVRU)ULHGPDQ
V9LHZVRQ0RQH\(FRQRPLFD
+DKQ)+0RQHWDULVPDQG(FRQRPLF7KHRU\(FRQRPLFD
+DKQ)+0RQH\DQG,QIODWLRQ2[IRUG
+DKQ)+6RPH.H\QHVLDQ5HIOHFWLRQVRQ0RQHWDULVP,Q9LFDUHOOL)+J.H\QHV
V5HOH
YDQFH7RGD\/RQGRQ%DVLQJVWRNH
+DKQ)+6RORZ50$&amp;ULWLFDO(VVD\RQ0RGHUQ0DFURHFRQRPLF7KHRU\2[IRUG
+DOOHU+*HOGSROLWLNXQG*HOGZHUWVWDELOLVLHUXQJ.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
+DUURG5)'\QDPLVFKH:LUWVFKDIWVWKHRULH)UDQNIXUW1HZ&lt;RUN
+HDOH\ 1 0 7KH 8. 0RQHWDULVW ([SHULPHQW &plusmn; :K\ (FRQRPLVWV 6WLOO 'LVDJUHH
%DQFD1D]LRQDOHGHO/DYRUR4XDUWHUO\5HYLHZ
+LFNV-7KH&amp;ULVLVLQ.H\QHVLDQ(FRQRPLFV2[IRUG
+RIIPDQQ:'LH3KLOOLSV.XUYHLQ'HXWVFKODQG.\NORV
+ROWIUHULFK&amp;/*HOGSROLWLNEHLIHVWHQ:HFKVHONXUVHQ,Q'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
+J)QI]LJ-DKUH'HXWVFKH0DUN&plusmn;1RWHQEDQNXQG:lKUXQJLQ'HXWVFKODQGVHLW0QFKHQ
,UPOHU+7KH'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
V&amp;RQFHSWRI0RQHWDU\7KHRU\DQG0RQHWDU\3ROLF\,Q
%UXQQHU.+J3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH)LUVW.RQVWDQ]HU6HPLQDURQ0RQHWDU\7KHRU\DQG0RQHWDU\
3ROLF\%HLKHIWH]X.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO%HUOLQ
,VVLQJ2*HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlWDOVRUGQXQJVSROLWLVFKHV3UREOHP2UGR
-RKQVRQ+*(LQhEHUEOLFNEHUGLH,QIODWLRQVWKHRULH,Q'HUV%HLWUlJH]XU*HOGWKHRULHXQG
*HOGSROLWLN%HUOLQ
-RKQVRQ+*3UREOHPHGHU(IIL]LHQ]GHU*HOGSROLWLN.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
-RKQVRQ+*'LH.H\QHVLDQLVFKH5HYROXWLRQXQGGLHPRQHWDULVWLVFKH.RQWHUUHYROXWLRQ,Q
.DOPEDFK3+J'HUQHXH0RQHWDULVPXV0QFKHQ
-RKQVRQ+*,QIODWLRQVWKHRULHXQGGLH.RQWURYHUVHXPGHQ0RQHWDULVPXV,Q'HUV,QIODWLRQ
&plusmn;7KHRULHXQG3ROLWLN0QFKHQ
.DOGRU17KH1HZ0RQHWDULVP/OR\GV%DQN5HYLHZ
.DOGRU17KH6FRXUJHRI0RQHWDULVP$XIO1HZ&lt;RUN
.DOPEDFK 3 (LQOHLWXQJ &plusmn; 'HU QHXH 0RQHWDULVPXV ,Q 'HUV +J 'HU QHXH 0RQHWDULVPXV
0QFKHQ
.HQHQ3%&amp;DSLWDO&amp;RQWUROVWKH(06DQGWKH(08(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO
.HWWHUHU.+3RKO5'DV.RQ]HSWGHUSRWHQWLDORULHQWLHUWHQ.UHGLWSROLWLN&plusmn; =XHLQHPNULWL
VFKHQ$XIVDW]YRQ+*0RQLVVHQ.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
.H\QHV-0(LQ7UDNWDWEHU:lKUXQJVUHIRUP0QFKHQ/HLS]LJ
.H\QHV-0$OOJHPHLQH7KHRULHGHU%HVFKlIWLJXQJGHV=LQVHVXQGGHV*HOGHV%HUOLQ
.ODVHQ.3UREOHPHGHU:lKUXQJVSROLWLNDQGHU-DKUHVZHQGH,Q'HXWVFKH%XQGHV
EDQN+J$XV]JHDXV3UHVVHDUWLNHOQ1U)UDQNIXUW
K&ouml;hler, C. (1970): Thesen und Gegenthesen – Bemerkungen zu Milton Friedmans monet&auml;rem Konzept des &quot;New Liberalism&quot;. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 105, 31-47.
.UHJHO-$+DPOHW:LWKRXWWKH3ULQFH&plusmn;&amp;DPEULGJH0DFURHFRQRPLFV:LWKRXW0RQH\$PHUL
FDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ3DSHUVDQG3URFHHGLQJV
.UHJHO-$$VSHFWVRID3RVW.H\QHVLDQ7KHRU\RI)LQDQFH-RXUQDORI3RVW.H\QHVLDQ(FR
QRPLFV
.URPSKDUGW-9RQGHU*OREDOVWHXHUXQJGHU1DFKIUDJH]XU9HUEHVVHUXQJGHU$QJHERWVEHGLQ
JXQJHQ&plusmn;=XGHQ8UVDFKHQGHV%HGHXWXQJVYHUOXVWVGHV.H\QHVLDQLVPXV0LPHR
.XKQ76'LH6WUXNWXUZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKHU5HYROXWLRQHQ)UDQNIXUW
Laidler, D. (1976): Mayer on Monetarism – Comments from a British Point of View. Kredit und Kapital,
9, 56-69.
/DLGOHU''RZDQG6DYLOOH
V&amp;ULWLTXHRI0RQHWDU\3ROLF\&plusmn;$5HYLHZ$UWLFOH-RXUQDORI(FR
QRPLF/LWHUDWXUH
/DLGOHU'.DUO%UXQQHU
V0RQHWDU\(FRQRPLFV&plusmn;$Q$SSUHFLDWLRQ-RXUQDORI0RQH\&amp;UHGLW
DQG%DQNLQJ
/DLGOHU'7KH(PHUJHQFHRIWKH3KLOOLSV&amp;XUYHDVD3ROLF\0HQX0LPHR
/DLGOHU'6RPH$VSHFWVRI0RQHWDULVP&amp;LUFD&plusmn;$9LHZIURP.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
Laidler, D. (2003): The Role of the History of Economic Thought in Modern Macroeconomics. In: Mizen, P., Hg.: 0RQHWDU\ History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets. 3UDFWLFH &amp;KHOWHQKDP 1RUWKDPSWRQ
/DLGOHU ' 1RED\ $ 5 :HOWLQIODWLRQ EHL IHVWHQ :HFKVHONXUVHQ ,Q &amp;ODDVVHQ (0 +J
.RPSHQGLXPGHU:lKUXQJVWKHRULH0QFKHQ
/HLMRQKXIYXG$hEHU.H\QHVXQGGHQ.H\QHVLDQLVPXV.|OQ
/XFDV5(([SHFWDWLRQVDQGWKH1HXWUDOLW\RI0RQH\-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF7KHRU\
0DGGRFN5&amp;DUWHU0$&amp;KLOG
V*XLGHWR5DWLRQDO([SHFWDWLRQV-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF/LWHUD
WXUH
0D\HU77KH6WUXFWXUHRI0RQHWDULVP,,,.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
Meltzer, A. H. (1998): Monetarism &plusmn;The Issue and the Outcome. $WODQWLF(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO, 26, 8-24.
0LNVFK/'LHNQIWLJH%XQGHV%DQN=HLWVFKULIWIUGDVJHVDPWH.UHGLWZHVHQ
0RGLJOLDQL)7KH0RQHWDULVW&amp;RQWURYHUV\RU6KRXOG:H)RUVDNH6WDELOL]DWLRQ3ROLFLHV$PH
ULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
0|OOHU:XD0RGHUQH4XDQWLWlWVYHUVXV/LTXLGLWlWVWKHRULH&plusmn; (LQ7HVWNRQNXUULHUHQGHU+\
SRWKHVHQ.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
0RQLVVHQ+*$QDO\VHGHUNH\QHVLDQLVFKHQ/LTXLGLWlWVSUlIHUHQ]IXQNWLRQ.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
0RQLVVHQ + * *HOGYHUVRUJXQJ XQG .UHGLWSROLWLN &plusmn; .ULWLVFKH $QPHUNXQJHQ ]XU PRQHWlUHQ
.RQ]HSWLRQYRQ&amp;ODXV.|KOHU.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
1HOGQHU 0 =XP 9HUKlOWQLV YRQ ,GHRORJLH XQG 7KHRULH EHL 0LOWRQ )ULHGPDQ -DKUEFKHU IU
1HOVRQ ( :KDW 'RHV WKH 8.
V 0RQHWDU\ 3ROLF\ DQG ,QIODWLRQ ([SHULHQFH 7HOO 8V DERXW WKH
7UDQVPLVVLRQ0HFKDQLVP&quot;&amp;(35'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU/RQGRQ
1HOVRQ(1LNRORY.0RQHWDU\3ROLF\DQG6WDJIODWLRQLQWKH8.&amp;(35'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU
1HXEDXHU:hEHUGLH8QP|JOLFKNHLWHLQHUPRQHWDULVWLVFKHQ*HOGSROLWLN.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
1HXPDQQ0-0=ZLVFKHQ]LHOHXQG,QGLNDWRUHQGHU*HOGSROLWLN.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
1HXPDQQ0-0%DQN/LTXLGLW\DQGWKH([WHQGHG0RQHWDU\%DVHDV,QGLFDWRUVRI*HUPDQ
0RQHWDU\3ROLF\,Q%UXQQHU.+J3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH )LUVW .RQVWDQ]HU 6HPLQDU RQ 0RQHWDU\
7KHRU\DQG0RQHWDU\3ROLF\%HLKHIWH]X.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO%HUOLQ
1HXPDQQ0-0.RQVWUXNWHGHU=HQWUDOEDQNJHOGPHQJH.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
1HXPDQQ 0 - 0 *HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlW &plusmn; %HGURKXQJ XQG %HZlKUXQJ ,Q 'HXWVFKH %XQGHV
EDQN +J )QI]LJ -DKUH 'HXWVFKH 0DUN &plusmn; 1RWHQEDQN XQG :lKUXQJ LQ 'HXWVFKODQG VHLW 0QFKHQ
Neumann, M. J. M. / Gerber, C. (2004): Inflation and Core Money Growth in the Euro Area. Deutsche
Bundesbank, Discussion Paper, Series 1: Studies of the Economic Research Centre, No. 36,
2EHUKDXVHU$*HOGSROLWLNDOV/LTXLGLWlWVSROLWLN&plusmn; (LQ9RUVFKODJ]XU1HXJHVWDOWXQJGHVJHOG
SROLWLVFKHQ,QVWUXPHQWDULXPV.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
2EHUKDXVHU $ *HOG XQG .UHGLWSROLWLN EHL ZHLWJHKHQGHU 9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJ XQG PlLJHP
3UHLVDQVWLHJ,Q'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN+J:lKUXQJXQG:LUWVFKDIWLQ'HXWVFKODQG
3DWLQNLQ ' 7KH &amp;KLFDJR 7UDGLWLRQ WKH 4XDQWLW\ 7KHRU\ DQG )ULHGPDQ -RXUQDO RI 0RQH\
&amp;UHGLWDQG%DQNLQJ
3DWLQNLQ ' )ULHGPDQ RQ WKH 4XDQWLW\ 7KHRU\ DQG .H\QHVLDQ (FRQRPLFV ,Q *RUGRQ 5 -
+J0LOWRQ)ULHGPDQ
3KHOSV(+3KLOOLSV&amp;XUYHV([SHFWDWLRQVRI,QIODWLRQDQG2SWLPDO8QHPSOR\PHQWRYHU7LPH
(FRQRPLFD
3KHOSV(6,QIODWLRQ3ROLF\DQG8QHPSOR\PHQW7KHRU\&plusmn;7KH&amp;RVW%HQHILW$SSURDFKWR0R
QHWDU\3ODQQLQJ/RQGRQ
3RKO 5 0RQHWlUH $QDO\VH GHV 6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQJXWDFKWHQV &plusmn; (LQ .RPPHQWDU .\NORV 3RKO5=XU.ULWLNGHU7KHRULHGHU9HUP|JHQVVWUXNWXUXQGGHUUHODWLYHQ3UHLVH.UHGLWXQG.D
SLWDO
3RKO 5 'HU 7UDQVPLVVLRQVPHFKDQLVPXV GHU *HOGSROLWLN -DKUEFKHU IU 1DWLRQDO|NRQRPLH
XQG6WDWLVWLN
5LFK*0RQHWDU\7DUJHWVDVD3ROLF\5XOH&plusmn;/HVVRQVIURPWKH6ZLVV([SHULHQFH-RXUQDORI
0RQHWDU\(FRQRPLFV
5LFKWHU 5 'LH *HOGSROLWLN LP 6SLHJHO GHU ZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKHQ 'LVNXVVLRQ ,Q 'HXWVFKH %XQ
GHVEDQN+J)QI]LJ-DKUH'HXWVFKH0DUN&plusmn;1RWHQEDQNXQG:lKUXQJLQ'HXWVFKODQGVHLW
5LFKWHU5'HXWVFKH*HOGSROLWLN7ELQJHQ
5LHVH + =XU 7KHRULH UDWLRQDOHU (UZDUWXQJHQ &plusmn; 1HRNODVVLVFKH *UXQGODJH XQG NH\QHVLDQL
VFKHU *HJHQHQWZXUI ,Q %RPEDFK * XD +J 0DNUR|NRQRPLN KHXWH &plusmn; *HPHLQVDPNHLWHQ XQG
*HJHQVlW]H7ELQJHQ
5LHVH+7KHRULHGHU,QIODWLRQ7ELQJHQ
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW([SDQVLRQXQG6WDELOLWlW-DKUHVJXWDFKWHQ%RQQ
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW.RQMXQNWXULP8PEUXFK&plusmn;5LVLNHQXQG&amp;KDQFHQ-DKUHVJXWDFKWHQ
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW*OHLFKHU5DQJIUGHQ*HOGZHUW-DKUHVJXWDFKWHQ%RQQ
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW0XW]XU6WDELOLVLHUXQJ-DKUHVJXWDFKWHQ%RQQ
6DFKYHUVWlQGLJHQUDW9ROOEHVFKlIWLJXQJIUPRUJHQ-DKUHVJXWDFKWHQ%RQQ
6DPXHOVRQ3$6RORZ50$QDO\WLVFKH$VSHNWHHLQHU$QWL,QIODWLRQV3ROLWLN,Q1RZRWQ\
(+J/|KQH3UHLVH%HVFKlIWLJXQJ)UDQNIXUW
6DUJHQW7-7KH&amp;RQTXHVWRI$PHULFDQ,QIODWLRQ3ULQFHWRQ
6D\HUV56&amp;HQWUDO%DQNLQJDIWHU%DJHKRW/RQGRQ
6FKHIROG%+J([RJHQLWlWXQG(QGRJHQLWlW&plusmn;'LH*HOGPHQJHLQGHU*HVFKLFKWHGHV|NRQR
PLVFKHQ'HQNHQVXQGLQGHUPRGHUQHQ3ROLWLN0DUEXUJ
6FKOHVLQJHU+1HXH(UIDKUXQJHQGHU*HOGSROLWLNLQGHU%XQGHVUHSXEOLN'HXWVFKODQG.UHGLW
XQG.DSLWDO
6FKOHVLQJHU+-DKQNH:*HOGPHQJH3UHLVHXQG6R]LDOSURGXNW&plusmn;,QWHUGHSHQGHQ]]XVDP
PHQKlQJHLP/LFKWH|NRQRPHWULVFKHU)RUVFKXQJVHUJHEQLVVHIUGLH%XQGHVUHSXEOLN'HXWVFKODQG
-DKUEFKHUIU1DWLRQDO|NRQRPLHXQG6WDWLVWLN
6FKXPSHWHU-$*HVFKLFKWHGHU|NRQRPLVFKHQ$QDO\VH*|WWLQJHQ
6LHENH - :LOOPV 0 'DV *HOGDQJHERW LQ GHU %XQGHVUHSXEOLN 'HXWVFKODQG &plusmn; (LQH HPSLUL
VFKH$QDO\VHIUGLH3HULRGHELV=HLWVFKULIWIUGLHJHVDPWH6WDDWVZLVVHQVFKDIW
6LHENH-:LOOPV0=LQVQLYHDX*HOGSROLWLNXQG,QIODWLRQ.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
6LPRQV+(FRQRPLF3ROLF\IRUD)UHH6RFLHW\$XIO&amp;KLFDJR
6NLGHOVNL5-0.H\QHVDQGWKH4XDQWLW\7KHRU\RI0RQH\,Q%ODXJ0XD7KH4XDQWLW\
7KHRU\RI0RQH\&plusmn;)URP/RFNHWR.H\QHVDQG)ULHGPDQ$OGHUVKRW
6SDKQ+3)URP*ROGWR(XUR&plusmn;2Q0RQHWDU\7KHRU\DQGWKH+LVWRU\RI&amp;XUUHQF\6\VWHPV
%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ
6WHLQGO ) * 7KH )LVKHU (IIHFW LQ *HQHUDO (TXLOLEULXP 0RGHOV .UHGLW XQG .DSLWDO 6WUHLOHU(:+J'LH8PVHW]XQJZLUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKHU*UXQGNRQ]HSWLRQHQLQGLHNRQWLQHQ
WDOHXURSlLVFKH3UD[LVGHVXQG-DKUKXQGHUWV,7HLO6WXGLHQ]XU(QWZLFNOXQJGHU|NRQRPL
VFKHQ7KHRULH;9,6FKULIWHQGHV9HUHLQVIU6RFLDOSROLWLN%G;9,%HUOLQ
6WXFNHQ5=XGHQ$XIJDEHQHLQHU=HLWVFKULIW.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO.UHGLWXQG.DSLWDO
6WW]HO:hEHUXQVHUH:lKUXQJVYHUKlOWQLVVH7ELQJHQ
6YHQVVRQ/(2&amp;RPPHQWRQ7KH)XWXUHRI0RQHWDU\$JJUHJDWHVLQ0RQHWDU\3ROLF\$QD
O\VLV-RXUQDORI0RQHWDU\(FRQRPLFV
7HZHV7$QPHUNXQJHQ]XU1RWHQEDQNVWUDWHJLH&plusmn;6ROOWHGLH1RWHQEDQN*HOGZHUWVWDELOLWlWGL
UHNWRGHUEHUHLQ=ZLVFKHQ]LHODQVWHXHUQ&quot;.RQMXQNWXUSROLWLN
7RELQ-0RQH\DQG,QFRPH&plusmn; 3RVWKRFHUJRSURSWHUKRF&quot;4XDUWHUO\-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLFV
7RELQ - ,QIODWLRQ XQG $UEHLWVORVLJNHLW ,Q 1RZRWQ\ ( +J /|KQH 3UHLVH %HVFKlIWLJXQJ
7RELQ-)ULHGPDQ
V7KHRUHWLFDO)UDPHZRUN,Q*RUGRQ5-+J0LOWRQ)ULHGPDQ
V0RQH
WDU\)UDPHZRUN&plusmn;$'HEDWHZLWK+LV&amp;ULWLFV&amp;KLFDJR
7RELQ-9HUP|JHQVDNNXPXODWLRQXQGZLUWVFKDIWOLFKH$NWLYLWlW0QFKHQ:LHQ
:LOOPV0%DQNHQYHUKDOWHQXQG2IIHQPDUNWSROLWLN-DKUEFKHUIU1DWLRQDO|NRQRPLHXQG6WD
WLVWLN
:LOOPV00RQHWDU\7DUJHWVDQG(FRQRPLF6WDELOL]DWLRQ3ROLF\RIWKH'HXWVFKH%XQGHVEDQN
,Q%UXQQHU.+J3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH)LUVW.RQVWDQ]HU6HPLQDURQ0RQHWDU\7KHRU\DQG0RQH
:ROPDQ:,V(XURSH5HDG\IRU)ULHGPDQ&quot;1HZ&lt;RUN7LPHV