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KINGDOM OF BELGIUM. Federal Government Debt. Federal Public Service FINANCE. General Administration of the Treasury - PDF
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1 KINGDOM OF BELGIUM Federal Public Service FINANCE General Administration of the Treasury Federal Government Debt Annual Report 2010
2 2010 ANNUAL REPORT Federal Public Service Finance General Treasury Department 30, avenue des Arts B-1040 Brussels D/2011/0676/2 June
3 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES CONTENTS Foreword by the Finance Minister 5 The key figures for government debt 6 Part 1: Developments in the economy and in government finance in Developments in the Belgian economy and interest rates Government finance: developments in Part 2: Financing policy in Financing requirements and resources in An issuing policy based on two types of products Liquid products issued on a transparent basis, to a predictable pattern 19 a. Linear bonds (OLOs) 19 b. Treasury certificates 26 c. State notes 29 d. Strips Tailor-made products 30 a. Bond issues within the EMTN programme 30 b. Belgian Treasury Bills denominated in EUR and foreign currencies 31 c. Treasury Bonds - Silver Fund General Directives and control of risks The refinancing and refixing risks Credit risk 33 2
4 Part 3: Main strategic points The sovereign debt crisis Financing of Ireland and Greece Changes in rate spreads, swap spreads and CDS premiums; short selling Distribution of Belgian federal debt Fedcom: Implementation of the double-entry general ledger accounting system for Belgian Federal State debt. 46 Appendices - Maturity schedule of the Federal Government Long-Term debt in EUR - Weighted average actuarial rate of the debt in EUR - Linear bonds: amounts outstanding, results of issues - Treasury certificates: amounts outstanding, results of auctions - Treasury Bonds - Silver Fund: issues and amounts outstanding - Organisation chart of the Debt Agency and the Public Debt Support Service - List of Treasury security brokers for : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
5 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES 4
6 FOREWORD BY DIDIER REYNDERS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF FINANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS 2010 was characterised by a worldwide economic recovery which benefited Belgium, whose GDP growth stands at +2.1%. Following negative growth in 2009, this positive result comes from the increase in exports and domestic consumption, reflecting the renewed confidence of economic actors in general. The public finances also benefited from this improvement in the economic situation. Thus, the government deficit stands at 4.1% of GDP for 2010, an improvement of 1.8% of GDP compared with the deficit recorded in 2009 (5.9% of GDP). This improvement results from an increase in total revenue and a reduction in total expenditure for the government. Primary expenditure, i.e. expenditure excluding the interest burden, also fell, resulting in a reduction in the primary balance deficit. This fell from -2.3% to -0.7% of GDP between 2009 and Belgium s debt ratio increased due to the rescuing of certain financial institutions hit head-on by the financial crisis in 2008 and The increase in this ratio, which rose from 96.2% of GDP in 2009 to 96.8% of GDP in 2010, was, however considerably lower than that forecast in the stability programme, in particular due to more active debt management. The stability programme had envisaged that the debt ratio would exceed the threshold of 100% of GDP in Interest rates remained at low levels on the financial markets, influenced by the continuation of the European Central Bank s monetary policy. This situation enabled the continuation of the lowering of the weighted average interest rate of the Federal Government debt which stood at 4.30% in 2008, 3.68% in 2009 and 3.51% in The interest burden on the debt decreased slightly in relation to GDP, falling from 3.6% to 3.4% of GDP in In a context made more difficult by the financial situation (sovereign debt crisis) the Debt Agency, within the framework of the general directives that I determine each year, succeeded in borrowing the resources necessary to meet our financing requirements at the lowest possible cost. I thank the Agency s personnel for the work accomplished and for everything that will be done to meet the challenges to come. The Minister of Finance, Didier Reynders 5 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
7 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES KEY INDICATORS OF GOVERNMENT DEBT (EUR bn or % at 31st December) I. Amounts outstanding of the main federal government debt instruments Gross federal debt outstanding Treasuring financing and investments Financing of other entities Portfolio stocks Investment reserve Financing of Securities Regulation Fund Net federal debt outstanding Debt instruments A. Instruments in EUR: Linear bonds (OLOs) EMTN in EUR Conventional loans State notes Treasury certificates Treasury Bonds - Silver Fund Belgian Treasury Bills in EUR Private loans, interbank loans, etc Debt issued in foreign currencies and swapped in EUR (including EMTN) Borrowings of certain organisations for which the federal government helps service the debt As % of the debt in EUR: - Linear bonds % % - Conventional loans 0.01 % 0.02 % - State notes 1.16 % 1.47 % - Treasury certificates % % - Others % % B. Instruments in foreign currency: Long- and medium-term debt Belgian Treasury Bills in foreign currency II. Changes in net federal government debt outstanding over the year 1. Change (EUR bn) Net balance to be financed Borrowings taken over Exchange gain/loss Interest capitalised Miscellaneous Borrowings of certain organisations Change (%) 3.53 % 3.94 % 6
8 III. Characteristics of the federal government debt 1. Ratings issued by the various rating agencies - Rating of long-term issues (S&P/Moody's/Fitch) AA+/Aa1/AA+ AA+/Aa1/AA+ - Outlook (S1P/Mood s/fitch) negative/stable/stable stable/stable/stable 2. Breakdown by currency - Borrowings in EUR % % - Borrowings in foreign currencies 0.04 % 0.17 % 3. Breakdown by maturity - Long and medium term (>1 year) % % - Short term % % 4. Breakdown by rate - Fixed rate % % - Variable rate % % 5. Effective duration of the debt in EUR Effective duration of the debt in foreign currencies Federal government interest rate burden Weighted average interest rate 3.51 % 3.68 % 8. Ratio of federal interest cost to federal expenditure (in %) % % IV. Transition from federal debt (Treasury) to general government debt 1. Federal debt outstanding Outstanding debt of other federal entities (1) Debt of Communities, Regions and local authorities Consolidation adjustment Other corrections Consolidated general government debt ( ) GDP General government debt ratio (6/7) % % (1) Debt represented by financial instruments as understood for purposes of the Maastricht Treaty 7 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
9 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES 8
10 PART 1 9 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
11 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES PART 1. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ECONOMY AND IN GOVERNMENT FINANCE IN Developments in the Belgian economy and interest rates Belgian economy In a context of a general recovery internationally, an increase in exports and a recovery of domestic demand, the growth in activity in Belgium is estimated at 2.1% for all of These results were obtained after a 2.7% fall in GDP in GDP growth reached a maximum annual rate of 2.7% in the second quarter and stabilised at around 2% for the remainder of the year. The initial impulse came from an increase in foreign demand, to the benefit of Belgian exporters. Belgian exports increased by 10.2% in the year under review. This was followed by an improvement of 1.4% in household spending, thanks to a reduction in the savings rate (17.2% of disposable income compared with 18.3% in 2009), reflecting a renewed confidence among private individuals, buoyed up by the improvement in employment prospects was characterised by net employment creation: the increase in domestic employment amounted to 0.6%, which represents a net increase of 28,000 units. The harmonised unemployment rate increased by 0.5 percentage points, increasing to 8.4% of the active population, essentially due to the growth in the number of people seeking employment. The recovery of Belgian activity during the year under review occurred in the wake of an estimated 5% growth worldwide and estimated growth of 1.7% in the eurozone. This strengthening in activity occurred due to the effect of accommodating economic policies and a calming of financial tensions, which generated a recovery in worldwide demand. Interest rates Short-term interest rates in the eurozone and in the United States remained at historically low levels, influenced by the accommodating monetary policies of the central banks, which held their key interest rates at floor levels. There was, however, a slight increase in these rates in the eurozone. The public debt crisis encountered by some Governments in the eurozone, coupled with the fluctuating economic prospects in the United States, affected long-term interest rates. Despite the fact that long-term rates in the United States and in most of the eurozone remained at very low levels, yield curves maintained a distinctly positive slope. There was a downward trend in the second and third quarters, due to an economic slowdown in the United States and investors preference for the best-rated bonds in the eurozone, but an improvement in economic prospects generated a recovery toward the end of the year. Long-term bond rates increased substantially, however, for European countries in a fragile financial situation. United States In 2010, growth in the United States once again moved into positive territory, essentially due to the recovery in domestic demand, partly driven by economic policy measures. For the year under review as a whole, the increase in GDP is estimated at 2.8%. This recovery was not as vigorous as desired and stalled during the year, partly due to the situation in the employment and real estate markets. Although it terminated several measures taken in the context of the crisis, the Federal Reserve continued an accommodating monetary policy in The federal funds target rate therefore remained within the range of 0% to 0.25% adopted at the end of After having been zero in 2009, inflation increased in 2010 due to rising prices for energy and food products. Measured on the basis of the harmonised consumer price index, inflation stood at 2.3%. Long-term rates fluctuated in line with economic prospects, reaching a maximum in April and a minimum in October, before recovering over the last two months of the year. 10
12 G1. Averages of 3-month interest rates (in %) and averages of yields from 10-year benchmark bonds in Italie (LT) Japan (LT) United States (LT) Germany (LT) Eurozone J2010 F M While phasing out some unconventional measures at the beginning of the year, the European Central Bank (ECB) continued its accommodating monetary policy. The central key rate was therefore maintained unchanged at 1% in In addition, reacting to the tensions on the public securities markets of several eurozone countries, in May the ECB established a secondary market bond purchasing programme to preserve the monetary policy transmission mechanism. On the monetary market, the nonrenewal of the Eurosystem six- and twelve-month A M J J A G2. Changes in interest rates (in %) in 2010 (eurozone) S O N D Belgium (LT) 3 month Treasury certificates 3 month EURIBOR 3 month Euribor 3 month Treasury certificates Main ECB refunancing operations OLO Benchmark refinancing operations reduced the excess liquidity and pushed short-term rates slightly upwards. The uncertainties generated by the public finances situation of certain countries caused a substantial increase in long-term interest rate disparities within the eurozone. Bond rates for the best-rated Governments largely followed rate trends in the United States, while occasionally being pushed downwards by a flight to quality. Yield spreads to Germany increased particularly in May, during the Greek public debt crisis, and in November, during the Irish crisis. 11 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
13 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES Belgium On the Belgian financial markets, short-term rates followed an upward trend, like those of the eurozone, although remaining at relatively low levels. On average, 3-month Treasury certificate rates on the secondary market therefore rose from 0.31% in January to 0.71% in December. Interbank rates also remained very low, due to the influence of the Eurosystem monetary policy. The 3-month Euribor rose, on average, from 0.68% in January to 1.02% in December. With regard to the long term, the 10-year benchmark OLO rate oscillated, on average, around 3.5% over the year, ending at 3.99% in December The difference by comparison with the benchmark German Bund yield remained at around 50 basis points over the first five months of the year, before increasing to around 100 basis points on average in December, approximately mid-way between the comparative differences for France and Italy. 2. Government finance: developments in 2010 According to the National Accounts Institute (ICN) data for March 2011, the Belgian general government s accounts for 2010 closed with a deficit equivalent to 4.1% of GDP. This is an improvement of 1.8 percentage point of GDP over the deficit recorded in 2009 (5.9% of GDP). The results are also more favourable than the target set in the stability programme in January 2010, which envisaged a deficit of 4.8% of GDP for the year under review. Several factors contributed to the improvement in the financing balance: the budgetary consolidation and monitoring measures implemented at all levels of government, more sustained economic growth than forecast, and the disappearance of exceptional factors that had affected the 2009 budget results. As is customary, the budget was drawn up by the government based on the economic budget of September This was founded on the assumption of a gradual recovery of economic activity, with a growth in GDP of 0.4% for the whole of The January 2010 stability programme took account of the impact of a more favourable economic situation, based on an estimated growth of 1.1%, and revised the targets set in the initial budget. The estimated growth was subsequently revised upwards to take account of the strengthening recovery in activity. According to the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) data of February 2011, GDP increased by 2.1% in In 2009, the public finances had been negatively influenced by two legal decisions involving tax refunds (the Cobelfret ruling and the judgement concerning discrimination against married unemployed people compared with those who are cohabiting) and by the acceleration of enrolment for personal income tax. Although enrolment accelerated again in 2010, the rate of acceleration was more moderate than in the previous year. In addition, according to the NBB 2010 annual report, the structural balance improved by 0.9% of GDP compared with the previous year, given the compositional effects in the growth in GDP. In fact, the increase in certain components of individual income and expenditure which are an important determining factor for the public finances (in particular, household spending and earned income) was not as high as the increase in economic activity. Developments in the different sub-sectors The general government deficit breaks down into a 3.2% deficit in Entity I (Federal authorities and Social Security) and a 0.9% deficit in Entity II (Communities, Regions and Local Authorities). The results are therefore more favourable than the objectives set in the stability programme for Entity I, and meet the objectives set for Entity II. Within Entity I, the Federal Government's deficit represents 3.1% of GDP, while that of the Social Security system represents 0.1% of GDP, taking account of the special Federal Government appropriation to Social Security. These results are 12
14 better than the objectives set for these two subsectors. With regard to Entity II, the accounts for Communities and Regions show a deficit of 0.7% of GDP, while the deficit in Local Authority accounts stands at 0.2% of GDP. The results at the Communities and Regions level were therefore slightly less favourable than the objectives, while they were better at the Local authorities level. T1. Financing balance objectives and achievements (as a % of GDP 1 ) Revenue and expenditure Achievements Objectives Estimates General government Entity I Federal authorities Social security Entity II Communities and Regions Local Authorities Due to rounding off the totals may differ slightly from the sum of the parts. General and special tax revenues showed a slight increase, rising from 42.9% of GDP in 2009 to 43.4% of GDP in The increase related to the main categories of tax revenues (corporation tax, VAT and registration taxes), while revenue from social security contributions fell by 0.2% of GDP. VAT revenue particularly benefited from the recovery in household spending and exports. There was a slight reduction in the ratio of withholdings on earned income as a proportion of GDP, due to the reduction of the share of this income in GDP. Revenue from social security contributions fell as a result of this reduction and the exemption from charges on salary rises provided for in the multi-industry agreement. Revenue from personal income taxes, on the other hand, increased by 0.2% of GDP. This is explained by the partial suppression of the fixed-sum reduction in the Flemish Region and by the rate of acceleration in enrolment for personal income tax, which was lower than that for the previous year. On the other hand, the other tax measures, in particular the aforementioned exemption from charges, contributed to reducing the tax pressure. Revenues not originating from general and special taxes increased by 0.2 per cent of GDP, mainly thanks to the contributions resulting from the interventions in favour of the financial sector (shareholding dividends, bank guarantees and the deposits and insurance products guarantee system) and the increases in dividends from the NBB. After seeing a substantial increase in 2009, primary expenditure fell back by 0.8 per cent of GDP, totalling 49.6% of GDP. This decline was due, in particular, to the reduction in unemployment benefit expenditure. Although the number of fully unemployed people receiving benefit continued to increase, the number of temporary unemployed people reduced considerably, due to a faster reaction to the turnaround in the economy. The rise in the health index was also less than that in the price index used to deflate expenditure, given the lag inherent in the mechanism for indexing public sector pay and social security benefits. The growth in social security expenditure was also more limited than that for the previous year. Although all expenditure categories were involved, those relating to healthcare contributed most strongly to this slowdown. Pensions expenditure was also reduced, due to the small rise in new beneficiaries coupled with a lesser amount being devoted to readjustment measures. On the other hand, subsidies granted to companies (exemptions from withholding tax on professional income and service vouchers expenditure) increased. 13 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
15 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES T2. General government revenue and expenditure (as % of GDP) Achievements Estimates Total revenue of which general tax revenue and special tax revenue Primary expenditure Total expenditure The combination of revenue and primary expenditure gives rise to a reduction in the primary balance deficit from 2.3% to 0.7% of GDP. This result is better than the objective stated in the stability programme for a primary balance deficit of 1.1% of GDP. The interest burden on public debt represented 3.4% of GDP, a fall of 0.2 per cent of GDP by comparison with This reduction is exclusively attributable to the reduction in the implicit interest rate for both shortterm and long-term debt. The government debt ratio continued to increase in 2010, representing 96.8% of GDP, compared with 96.2% of GDP for the previous year. The rate of increase in the debt ratio was, however, substantially more moderate than for 2009, when the ratio increased by 6.6 per cent of GDP. The rise is also lower than the objective stated in the stability programme, which forecast that the debt ratio would exceed the threshold of 100% of GDP in The improvement is due to more favourable budget results than initially forecast and to active management of the public debt. European comparison The Belgian financing balance (-4.1% of GDP) is more favourable than the financing balance of the eurozone Member States, which is an average deficit of 6.0% of GDP. The primary balance result also demonstrated better performance. This amounted to -0.7% of GDP, compared with a eurozone average of -3.2% of GDP. In addition, although at a relatively high level, the increase in the Belgian debt ratio (0.6 percentage point of GDP) is one of the lowest of all the eurozone countries. G3. Trend in the debt ratio from 1990 to 2010 (in % of GDP)
16 G4. Primary balance and financing balance (% of GDP) Primary balance Financing balance G5. European financing balance comparison (% of GDP) Eurozone Belgium Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Netherlands Austria Portugal G6. European gross consolidated debt comparison (% of GDP) Eurozone Belgium Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Netherlands Finland Austria Portugal Finland 15 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
17 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES 16
18 PART 2 17 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
19 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES PART 2. FINANCING POLICY IN Financing requirements and resources in 2010 In 2010, the Federal Government's gross financing requirements totalled EUR billion. The federal cash shortfall in the strict sense amounted to EUR billion, whereas the Treasury initially expected a cash shortfall of EUR billion. The unexpected improvement in the Federal government s budget results was therefore immediately translated into a lowering of financing requirements. In addition, the Treasury posted a very positive result from the swaps concluded in 2009 and earlier. Thanks to the cancellation of swaps, the Treasury received a total T3. Treasury financing in 2010 (EUR bn) amount of EUR 2.16 billion in However, the Treasury had to provide resources for Greece s financing. Finally, the cash shortfall in the broad sense amounted to EUR billion, substantially lower than the sum envisaged in the initial budget. The Treasury was also obliged to reimburse an amount of EUR billion for long-term debts. It also bought back a much larger amount of bonds maturing in 2011 (EUR 6.46 billion) than had initially been envisaged (EUR 2.83 billion). The Treasury also issued considerably more Linear bonds (OLOs) than envisaged, and the additional revenue was used in large part to prefinance This allowed the 2011 calendar of maturities to be lightened to some extent. Financing Situation on plan (1) 31/12/2010 I. Gross 2010 financing balance Budget deficit: Budget deficit (strictly defined) Transfers to the Silver Fund Participation in financial institutions and sovereign states Debt maturing in Medium- and long-term debt in EUR Medium- and long-term debt in foreign currencies Pre-financing of bonds maturing in Buybacks Other financing requirements II financing resources Medium- and long-term EUR issues Linear bonds Treasury Bonds - Silver Fund Instruments for private investors Miscellaneous Medium- and long-term foreign-currency issues III. Net change in foreign-currency short-term debt IV. Change in Treasury certificate amount outstanding V. Net change in other short-term debt and financial assets
20 The total medium and long-term financing resources amounted to EUR billion, which was greater than the sum envisaged (EUR billion). The Treasury issued Linear bonds (OLOs) for a total of EUR billion. Then, as had been provided for, an amount of EUR 1.57 billion was refinanced in Treasury bonds Silver Fund. The revenue from State notes (EUR 0.22 billion) and instruments within the EMTN programme (EUR 2.66 billion) was once again lower than envisaged. The amount of medium and long-term issues finally turned out to be higher than the financing requirements, so that short-term net debt decreased by EUR 1.82 billion on an annual basis. However, Treasury certificates outstanding remained virtually stable, and this decrease therefore showed its effects in terms of interbank debts and other debts, adjusted for changes in investment. This result reflected the strategy implemented by the Treasury of lengthening the duration of the portfolio. 2. An issuing policy based on two types of products 2.1. Liquid products issued on a transparent basis to a predictable pattern a. Linear bonds (OLOs) In 2010, the Treasury issued OLOs for a total amount of EUR billion, almost EUR 6 billion more than in On each occasion, it made use of the syndication technique for launching its three new benchmark bonds. During the year under review, the Treasury also organised 8 auctions, out of the 11 initially scheduled in the financing plan. The auctions were cancelled for the months in which the 3 syndications were held. Syndications - OLO 58 Continuing the tradition of issuing a bond with a 10- year maturity date in January, the Treasury launched the syndication of a new benchmark bond, the OLO 58. The Treasury s aim was to add a new 10-year benchmark product to its curve. The OLO 58, with a final maturity date of 28 September 2020, was placed by a syndicate, with the primary dealers BNP Paribas Fortis, Calyon, HSBC and RBS as joint lead managers. Other primary dealers and recognized dealers also participated in the placement, as co-lead managers and members of the selling group, respectively. Orders flowed in quickly, reaching EUR 5.5 billion in two hours, and continued to rise to EUR 8 billion from 207 investors by the afternoon closure. The quality of the orders enabled the Treasury to conclude a transaction for a final amount of EUR 5 billion. The transaction was launched in a positive market environment with a demand for long-term borrowing. The issue spread was set at mid-swap + 30 basis points, equivalent to basis points above the Bund January 2020 and 33.1 basis points above the OAT October The orders came essentially from real money investors and were therefore of excellent quality. This OLO's coupon was set at 3.75% and the issue price at %, equivalent to a yield of 3.864%. Once again, the Treasury used the technique known as mixed pot syndication to allocate orders. As in previous syndications, this system contributed to improving the efficiency, transparency and objectivity of both the book-building process and the allocation itself. An in-depth check was conducted on the majority of the subscriptions, thereby avoiding duplication of subscriptions from investors working with several primary dealers. 28% of the placement of the OLO 58 was made in Europe outside the eurozone. But the most substantial share was placed in the eurozone (67%), of which approximately 18% in Belgium. In total, the orders were allocated to 195 different investors. 19 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
21 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES Syndication Syndication is an issuing technique whereby the Treasury makes use of a syndicate of primary and recognised dealers to issue and place its securities. The syndicate is a temporary association of banks, whose common objective is collective placement of the bonds. There are three levels within the syndicate: 1. Lead manager: this is the bank that receives a mandate from the issuer to lead the syndicate. The lead manager underwrites the placement of most of the bonds, and is responsible for the overall coordination and organisation of the issue. In liaison with the issuer, it determines the structure, volume, spread and timing of the operation. Where several lead managers handling the issue, they are called joint lead managers. 2. Co-lead manager: works one level below the lead manager. Manages a small share of the placement. 3. Selling Group: this is the lowest level in the syndication structure. In the case of Belgium, the selling group is made up of the recognized dealers. They are invited to participate, but do not have to underwrite their participation. This participation is limited to placing a small volume of securities. They do not have any other tasks or responsibilities. Mixed pot syndication In the case of a mixed pot syndication structure, as in normal pot syndication, the Treasury has the advantage of total transparency regarding the identity of the buyer. However, there are two differences compared with normal pot syndication: 1. The presence of a blind retention reserved for the co-lead managers and the selling group. They are guaranteed this portion of the OLO allocation without the need to divulge the identity of the buyer to the joint lead managers. The co-lead managers and the selling group are, respectively, primary dealers other than joint lead managers, and the recognised dealers. The blind retention is granted to them by the Treasury in return for their efforts in placing the OLOs and Treasury certificates over the course of the previous year. 2. The presence of a strategic reserve. A fraction of the debt issue is reserved for the allocation of certain purchase orders presented by the co-leads and the selling group. In allocating the strategic reserve, the Debt Agency strives to allocate the orders placed by the co-leads and the selling group members on the basis of the following criteria: 1. the order is placed by an investor who is not yet registered in the books of the lead managers; 2. the order is of excellent quality and represents true diversification or is placed by an investor whose loyalty the Agency is particularly keen to secure. 20
22 G7. Geographical distribution of OLO 58 (3.75 % - 28/09/2020) G9. Geographical distribution of OLO 59 (2.75 % - 28/03/2016) OLO 59 Eurozone excluding Belgium % USA & Canada 0.60 % Belgium % Asia 4.84 % Rest of Europe % G8. Distribution of OLO 58 by investor type (3.75 % - 28/09/2020) Fund managers % Pension funds 6.90 % Other 0.87 % Banks % Central banks & public entities 4.92 % Insurance companies % For the second syndication of the year, the Treasury continued its 2010 issue programme by launching a long 5-year product in March. This type of maturity was chosen to properly integrate the existing OLO curve. This syndicated benchmark was launched in an environment where market feeling and spreads were continuously improving, and where Belgium remained fairly stable despite the existence of a certain volatility in the sovereign debt markets on the periphery. OLO 59, with a final maturity of 28 March 2016 and a coupon of 2.75%, was issued at a price of 99.84%, equivalent to a yield of 2.778%, at mid-swap + 8 basis Asia % Other countries 0.25 % Belgium % Rest of Europe % Eurozone excluding Belgium % USA & Canada 2.50 % G10. Distribution of OLO 56 by investor type (2.75 % - 28/03/2016) Fund managers % Pension funds 1.47 % Insurance companies 3.10 % Central banks & public entities % Other 1.55 % Banks % points, which corresponds to a cost of 38.1 basis points above the German Bund January 2016 bond. The spread above the OAT April 2016 was 13.9 basis points. The Treasury selected the following four primary dealers as lead managers for this syndication: Barclays, ING, Société Générale and UBS. The other primary dealers and recognised dealers also participated in the placement, as co-lead managers and members of the selling group, respectively. Placement orders totalled EUR 5 billion for 139 investors. The final amount allocated totalled EUR 4 billion. 21 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
23 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES The Treasury also used the mixed pot syndication technique to allocate orders. This system contributed to improving the efficiency, transparency and objectivity of both the book-building process and the allocation itself. In this case, it afforded the Treasury better control over orders allocated outside Belgium. In terms of geographical distribution, 28% was placed in Europe outside the eurozone and 47% within the eurozone, of which some 12% in Belgium. With regard to distribution by investor, the Treasury gave particular preference to real money accounts. OLO 60 For the third and last syndication of the year, the Treasury launched a 30-year OLO (OLO 60) in April. The Treasury has not issued such a long-term OLO since the launch of OLO 44 in The old 30-year benchmark had not been reopened for 2 years. This new 30-year bond therefore made it possible to complete the OLO curve. Inquiries with investors had identified their interest in a 30-year maturity. This was also the first sovereign issue with such a maturity in the eurozone in OLO 60, with a final maturity of 28 March 2041 and a coupon of 4.25%, was issued at a price of , equivalent to a yield of %, at mid-swap + 58 basis points, which corresponds to a cost of 38.7 basis points above the German Bund July 2040 bond. The Treasury selected the following four primary dealers as lead managers for this syndication: Barclays, BNP, Paribas Fortis, JP Morgan and Société Générale. The other primary dealers and recognised dealers also participated in the placement, as co-lead managers and members of the selling group, respectively. Orders totalled EUR 6.2 billion for 127 investors. The final amount allocated totalled EUR 4 billion. As for the two previous syndications, the Treasury made use of the mixed pot system to allocate the orders. More than 46% of the orders were placed in Europe outside the eurozone and 48% within the eurozone, of which only 5% in Belgium. With regard to distribution by investor, the majority of bids were allocated to fund managers, financial institutions and pension funds. G11. Geographical distribution of OLO 60 (4.25 % - 28/03/2041) Rest of Europe % Belgium 4.96 % Asia 3.75 % USA & Canada 1.50 % Eurozone excluding Belgium % G12. Distribution of OLO 60 by investor type (4.25 % - 28/03/2041) Fund managers % Pension funds 8.30 % Insurance companies % Banks % Central banks & public entities 4.25 % The Treasury appointed a duration manager for each of these three syndications. The function of a duration manager is to stabilise the market when the issue price of the new OLO is set, by acting as the counterpart for all switch orders placed by the investors in the book, among other roles. Switch orders are purchase orders for the new OLO on condition that another security is sold simultaneously at a pre-determined minimum price. This orderly and efficient organisation of investors selling orders is intended to limit erratic movements in the market when the new OLO is priced. 22
24 OLO auctions The Treasury decided in 2009 to increase the frequency of OLO auctions. From then on, they took place every month instead of every two months. This rule did not change for There were two reasons for this decision: on the one hand, as in 2009, the economic and financial crisis was causing uncertainty with regard to the amount to be collected during the auctions, and on the other hand, account had to be taken of the volume to be financed in 2010, namely more than EUR 30 billion. This was achieved, in practical terms, by organising an OLO auction on the last Monday of the month, except for December. The calendar was, however, modified slightly by postponing the May auction by one week and bringing forward the August auction by one week. The Treasury therefore took account of public holidays in the United States and the United Kingdom which happened to fall on the last Monday in the month. The Treasury also has the possibility of cancelling an auction when there is a syndication in the month concerned. This occurred in January, March and April when OLO 58, 59 and 60 were launched, bringing in a total of EUR 13 billion. There were therefore 8 auctions, which together brought in EUR billion (EUR billion during the competitive round and EUR 5.40 billion for non-competitive subscriptions). The issuance calendar, which is published each year in December, does not indicate the OLO line types to be auctioned in the next year, nor the number of lines. This data is disclosed one week before the auction, following consultation with the primary dealers. At the consultation meeting, the Treasury and the primary dealers review in detail the market demand and circumstances in order to take a decision on which lines should be auctioned. Three lines were proposed on each occasion during six OLO auctions. Only two lines were proposed in the July auction, in view of the holiday period and the success of the two auctions in June. Following the May auction, which actually took place on 7 June due to public holidays in the United States and the United Kingdom, the Treasury offered 4 OLO lines for the June auction. Apart from OLO 50 (28/03/2013), OLO 59 (28/03/2016) and OLO 58 (28/09/2020), the Treasury also proposed OLO 31, with a final maturity of 28 March 2028, in response to a request from insurance companies. The new 10-year benchmark (OLO 58), which was launched in January, was offered and demanded at each auction so that the initial amount of EUR 5 billion increased to reach a total amount in circulation of EUR billion. OLO 59, which was issued in March, was also subsequently offered on 5 occasions during the auctions, increasing the amount outstanding from EUR 4.0 billion to 9.59 billion. In April 2010, the Treasury issued a new 30-year bond, OLO 60, with a final maturity of 28 March This new benchmark bond was also included in an auction in September, which increased the amount outstanding to EUR 4.82 billion at the end of the year. Following the August auction, the Treasury had already brought in EUR billion via the OLO syndications and auctions, so that the envisaged amount of EUR billion for all the OLO issues for the entire year had almost been reached. The Treasury therefore decided to increase the envisaged amount by EUR 3.25 billion to EUR 37 billion. Buybacks of OLOs maturing in 2011 were increased by EUR 2 billion to EUR 4.83 billion, which increased the prefinancing of It should be noted that the Treasury takes account of market demand, which constitutes an important aspect of its strategy. By comparison with 2009, the share of medium and short-term maturities fell from 58.6% to 38.76%. With a relative share of 45.36%, the demand essentially related to the new 10-year benchmark bond. The very long maturities (greater than 10 years) aroused more interest, with a relative share of 15.88% and an amount of EUR 4.42 billion. The figures for 2009 were 12% and EUR 2.48 billion respectively. The demand for long-term borrowing corresponded perfectly to the Treasury s strategy aimed at lengthening the duration. 23 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
25 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES The average bid-to-cover ratio for all eight auctions was 2.25, compared with 2.63 for 2009 and 1.97 for The extreme values recorded in 2010 were 1.40 and This represents the ratio between the bids and the amounts selected. It is an indicator that makes it possible to see whether the auction is sufficiently covered by the bids, and therefore whether there is enough demand for the securities in the market. On average, the primary and recognised dealers received the auction results 6.5 minutes after the closure of the deadline for bid submissions. The shortest time was 4 minutes, recorded during the July auction, when two lines were proposed. The other extreme of 9 minutes was recorded during the auction of 7 June. Non-competitive subscriptions After the competitive round of auctions, the primary dealers but not the recognized dealers are entitled to participate in non-competitive subscriptions. They acquire this right in return for their active participation in the auctions. They can buy securities at the weighted average auction price, based on a predetermined percentage of their bids accepted in the two previous auctions. This right to non-competitive subscriptions for all the primary dealers taken together amounted to EUR 6.97 billion, of which 69.83% was exercised (compared with 41.26% in 2009). The exercise of this right depends on the market conditions at the time of the noncompetitive round. Up to and including the September auction, the primary dealers made ample use of their right to non-competitive subscriptions, following the increase in prices after the auctions. These non-competitive subscriptions contributed to facilitating the Treasury s financing during Due to the increase in rates in the fourth quarter, the primary dealers made scarcely any use of this option to obtain additional OLOs. Buy-back of linear bonds Since July 2001, the Treasury has been using the MTS Belgium (MTSB) electronic platform for buybacks of its bonds, as it offers liquidity, efficiency and transparent pricing. Buy-backs are carried out via a screen (Belgian Buy-Backs - BBB) which only the primary dealers and the Treasury can access, and on which the Treasury continuously displays the purchase prices. When an OLO line reaches a date less than 12 months prior to its final maturity, the Treasury offers it for buy-back, which enables investors to dispose of their securities early. For the Treasury, buy-backs allow planned interim prefinancing of future OLO maturities. The Treasury had already begun in 2009 to buy back the OLO 45 (final maturity 28 March 2010) and OLO 35 (final maturity 28 September 2010) lines, as of the months of April and October respectively. Only EUR 70 million of the OLO 45 was bought back during the first two months of 2010, which brought the total amount bought back to EUR 1.53 billion. This represented 17.34% of the total amount issued. In 2009, the Treasury had bought back EUR 1.55 billion of OLO 35. In 2010, the buy-backs on this OLO amounted to EUR 2.9 billion, thus reducing the total amount to be redeemed on maturity to EUR billion, a reduction of 28.10%. The Treasury began the buy-back of OLO 53 (final maturity 28 March 2011) at the end of March 2010, and that of OLO 36 (final maturity 28 September 2011) on 1 October. In 2010, EUR 4.7 billion of OLO 53 was bought back, bringing the amount outstanding to EUR 6.24 billion. With regard to OLO 36, the buy-backs amounted to EUR 1.6 billion for the months of October, November and December, thus bringing the amount outstanding at the end of 2010 to just EUR billion. 24
26 G13. Distribution of issues by maturity at the 2010 OLO auctions (in billions of EUR) year OLO 5-year OLO 6-year OLO 10-year OLO G14. Bid-to-cover ratio at the 2010 OLO auctions Volumes selected, EUR million (left-hand scale) Bid/cover G15. OLO issues in 2010 distributed by type (in billions of EUR) year OLO 18-year OLO 25-year OLO 30-year OLO Syndications Competitive bids Non competitive subscriptions 25 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
27 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES b. Treasury certificates T4. Buy-backs conducted by the Treasury in 2010 on a monthly basis (millions of EUR) J F M A M J J A S O N D Total OLO 32 28/03/ OLO 45 28/03/ OLO 35 28/09/ OLO 36 28/03/ Total per month In 2010, the end-of-month outstanding amounts of Treasury certificates varied within a range of EUR 39 billion to EUR 44 billion. The amounts outstanding increased at the start of the year, with a view to covering the OLO capital and interest reimbursements in March. During the year under review, the basic calendar for issues of Treasury certificates remained unchanged compared with the calendar introduced in The volumes issued in the certificate auctions were adjusted according to needs, but unlike in previous years, the Treasury did not issue Cash Management T-Bills issues of certificates in addition to the programme of conventional issues at 1 or 2 months. The front loading of the OLOs ensured sufficient cash positions so that additional Cash Management T- Bills issues were not necessary. Investors continued to show interest in the Treasury certificate auctions, as shown by the bid-to-cover ratio, which represents the number of bids received divided by the number of bids accepted in the auctions. On average, the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.88 for the 3- month segment, 2.31 for the 6-month and 1.98 for the 12-month. The average amount bid was EUR 3.51 billion for the 3-month segment, EUR 4.24 billion for the 6-month and EUR 3.90 billion for the 12-month. G16. Outstanding Treasury certificates at end of month in 2010 (in billions of EUR) J09 F M A M J J A S O N D J10 F M A M J J A S O N D 26
28 G17. Average bid-to-cover ratio for auctions of Treasury certificates in months 6 months 3 months G18. Weighted average interest rate of Treasury certificates at 3, 6 and 12 months in 2010 (in %) J10 F M A M J J A S O N D 12 months 6 months 3 months G19. Issue spreads between the average weighted rate of Treasury certificates and Euribor at 3, 6 and 12 months in 2010 (in basis points) J10 F M A M J J Auctions 2010 A S O N D 12 months 6 months 3 months 27 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES
29 : : ANNUAL REPORT 2010 : : TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD THE KEY INDICATORS 2010 PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 APPENDICES These ratios remained at comfortable levels, although slightly below those for the previous year. For the new 12-month lines, the volume after the first auction fluctuated between EUR 1.56 billion and EUR 2.21 billion. The average difference at auction between the limit rate and the lowest offered rate was 1.7 basis points for 3 months, 2.1 basis points for 6 months and 3.2 basis points for 12 months, representing a slight increase compared with This is partly due to the substantial volatility in the markets during the year under review. In addition, 64% of investors on average saw their bids accepted in the 3-month auctions. For the 6- and 12- month segments, the proportions were 79% and 92% respectively. T5. Issues of State notes in 2010 Graph G19 illustrates the spread between the weighted average rate of Treasury certificates and the Euribor for issues of 3-, 6- and 12-month lines. The average spreads compared with the Euribor for 2010 were -37.6, and basis points for the 3, 6, and 12-month segments respectively, all to the advantage of the Treasury. The uncertain political climate caused a deterioration in spreads for all terms towards the end of the year, from October onwards. In 2010, in volume terms the primary dealers availed themselves of 13.5% of their entitlement to obtain Treasury certificates at the weighted average auction rate by means of non-competitive subscriptions. They subscribed to the non-competitive round in 9 of the 28 auctions held throughout the year. It should be borne in mind that the primary dealers exercise of their entitlement to non-competitive bids depends on the market conditions. ISSUE OF 4TH MARCH 2010 STATE NOTES COUPON Total subscribed 5-year S.N 2.50 % year S.N 3.25 % ISSUE OF 4TH JUNE 2010 STATE NOTES COUPON Total subscribed 5-year S.N 2.20 % (101.00) year S.N 3.00 % (101.50) ISSUE OF 4TH SEPTEMBER 2010 STATE NOTES COUPON Total subscribed 5-year S.N 2.05 % (100.75) year S.N 2.75 % (100.75) ISSUE OF 4TH DECEMBER 2010 STATE NOTES COUPON Total subscribed 5-year S.N 2.35 % year S.N 3.00 % (99.75) Total
Federal Government Debt Debt Agency
Federal Government Debt Debt Agency 2013 annual report 2013 annual report 1 2 Debt Agency Kingdom of Belgium Contents Contents... 3 Key Indicators of Government Debt... 6 I. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ECONOMY
ANNUAL REPORT 1999. MINISTRY OF FINANCE Treasury Administration Department 30, avenue des Arts 1040 Brussels
ANNUAL REPORT 1999 MINISTRY OF FINANCE Treasury Administration Department 30, avenue des Arts 1040 Brussels D/2000/0676/1 May 2000 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword by the Minister of Finance 5 INTRODUCTION 7
Economic recovery is expected to continue at a moderate pace in Belgium and in the euro area, while inflation should gradually gaine momentum.