Datasets:

jamescalam

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reddit-topics-targz

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investing

Followup- Here are the results so far from my algo's price calculations on the symbols you gave me:

Please don't put any weight on these! Its just for fun. I made this algo myself..I don't know what I'm doing... its far more complicated than need be, and I don't even know what its doing anymore. Now I'm just testing it for the first time...and having some fun. |*Asset*|*Actual Price*|*Calculated Price*|*% Change*| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |FRLN|0.7522|0.114058535|\-85%| |HYMC|1.43|0.921447084|\-36%| |SQQQ|46.56|35.08529881|\-25%| |KOLD|8.78|7.087276735|\-19%| |MOS|65.4|55.48180539|\-15%| |UI|277.02|245.3351418|\-11%| |AAL|19.14|17.00989343|\-11%| |TGT|232.7|210.6066256|\-9%| |FLMN|6.86|6.398027457|\-7%| |REGN|671.33|627.7051901|\-6%| |MSFT|285.65|268.8981373|\-6%| |CC|32.64|31.09223336|\-5%| |BHP|68|64.93559832|\-5%| |KMB|140.48|135.0943617|\-4%| |ARCC|20.85|20.08539081|\-4%| |PFE|49.86|48.10944975|\-4%| |MAS|54.7|52.88982538|\-3%| |GGB|5.63|5.450538112|\-3%| |V|216|209.8209104|\-3%| |TWTR|48.79|47.50760913|\-3%| |TSLA|896|875.6372586|\-2%| |STAG|39.71|38.80885253|\-2%| |ITOT|93.92|93.08233041|\-1%| |GOOG|2326.92|2307.16525|\-1%| |ROK|256.79|255.0798264|\-1%| |RDBX|3.4|3.382586899|\-1%| |NOK|5.08|5.06265949|0%| |AAPL|158.77|158.3036962|0%| |BLL|81.01|81.36138508|0%| |HI|40.74|41.39205932|2%| |ASO|37.51|38.27378177|2%| |BAC|36.5|37.39420669|2%| |MU|67.3|69.13824116|3%| |CSCO|49.6|50.97448964|3%| |SCHY|24.39|25.14476674|3%| |AMD|86.3|89.50602306|4%| |HASI|40.56|42.43610909|5%| |TSM|91.4|95.7883795|5%| |ADBE|403.27|422.9537504|5%| |ZIM|57.5|60.36086427|5%| |INTC|45.6|48.12631788|6%| |INTC|45.6|48.12631788|6%| |JPM|122|128.921095|6%| |VZ|48.68|51.45133178|6%| |NET|92.87|98.281279|6%| |CBL|28|29.69499759|6%| |WBA|44.25|47.66109726|8%| |CELH|54|58.17653303|8%| |MMM|144.21|155.6670324|8%| |ATER|5.2|5.657450001|9%| |SBUX|74.88|81.48248541|9%| |LUMN|10.5|11.48311605|9%| |HBI|13.7|15.00536269|10%| |DB|10.24|11.23550725|10%| |FB|207.09|228.4724841|10%| |UBER|31.1999|34.49288882|11%| |ILMN|296.184|327.545313|11%| |GM|38.91|43.06569438|11%| |PKE|11.79|13.11316978|11%| |DIS|116.7|130.1778382|12%| |NVDA|188.3|211.9036967|13%| |IVT|30.57|34.41726576|13%| |FL|29.6|33.67027133|14%| |UMC|7.85|8.940326714|14%| |OPY|32.15|36.90363169|15%| |AGNC|11.22|12.89140747|15%| |GME|129.84|150.3780619|16%| |ETWO|7.5|8.799146294|17%| |T|19.13|22.65981112|18%| |CNF|3.1|3.682833415|19%| |BGFV|15|17.83488333|19%| |RCUS|24.98|30.10472664|21%| |BBBY|14.85|18.05023732|22%| |SNDL|0.5325|0.649718687|22%| |LEU|27.89|34.04760548|22%| |DOCS|44|53.72307412|22%| |LAKE|15.89|19.43861225|22%| |ARKQ|56.9|69.63677574|22%| |WBD|19.22|23.99154274|25%| |NERD|18.28|22.93968386|25%| |PAYA|5.5|6.976766697|27%| |CMPR|56.73|72.21911496|27%| |HIMS|4.65|5.925673999|27%| |BABA|89.47|114.2001117|28%| |DOCU|83.43|107.1609693|28%| |PYPL|85.45|110.6818926|30%| |XM|19.3|26.15302849|36%| |SE|83.99|115.4268668|37%| |PLTR|10.8|14.9322183|38%| |ARKK|49|68.1552281|39%| |XSPA|0.99|1.392123053|41%| |ARKW|65.84|92.71455701|41%| |TLRY|5.09|7.171070224|41%| |NSTG|19.6|28.02821939|43%| |CCM|1.5201|2.187256252|44%| |BB|5.68|8.224211744|45%| |UWMC|3.55|5.144659787|45%| |CRSR|15.14|22.05357414|46%| |ARKF|22.1|32.23507113|46%| |DDD|12.4|18.12539306|46%| |ARKG|35.73|53.0237355|48%| |AMC|15.92|23.64803253|49%| |NVAX|46.74|69.67407471|49%| |PINS|20.18|30.31352909|50%| |MTTR|5.67|8.575453621|51%| |ACB|2.96|4.490906924|52%| |TDOC|35.37|54.23178646|53%| |HOOD|9.83|15.1202152|54%| |ASAN|28.2|43.7092835|55%| |BBIG|2.29|3.694369895|61%| |RBLX|31.2|50.35916471|61%| |KSCP|4.18|6.775821994|62%| |STEM|7.77|12.75783628|64%| |SAVA|21.18|35.06261643|66%| |YCBD|0.685|1.147051623|67%| |DKNG|13.97|23.45954861|68%| |DRIO|5.04|8.541728298|69%| |AI|17.22|29.50844699|71%| |NNDM|2.84|5.088082738|79%| |RIOT|11.27|21.01636478|86%| |CELP|0.45|0.928761522|106%| |GREE|6.4|13.23168811|107%| |CLOV|2.67|5.551201339|108%| |OCGN|2.28|4.922086375|116%| |INO|2.7801|6.024544459|117%| |GNLN|0.3684|0.816221307|122%| |WISH|1.77|4.063528603|130%| |GAN|3.72|8.637601448|132%| |BEST|0.406|0.984611052|143%| |FUBO|4.04|12.75504967|216%| the other post: [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/udklo1/name\_a\_stock\_and\_ilk\_tell\_you\_the\_fair\_price\_per/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/udklo1/name_a_stock_and_ilk_tell_you_the_fair_price_per/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)

t3_ue0sp0

investing

This 2 hr Mohnish Pabrai lecture is better than 90% of my Ivy League Investing Classes

Mohnish Pabrai is the Warren Buffett of India (or maybe Warren Buffett is the Mohnish of India). In [this](https://youtu.be/9tGjXPhnp-s) video he lays out the 10 Commandments of investing in clear, plain language. Useful for casual investors or for someone looking to start their own fund some day. Recommend listening on 1.5 speed.

t3_ue0q26

investing

Vital Energy $VUX has “more than doubled production” but the market hasn’t noticed this yet – it was not yet in financials. Easy cashflow, more growth potential and a future stock multibagger using Q4 2021 numbers financials and 900 BOE/D production + higher oil prices of $100 WTI today

Share Price: 0.40 Market Cap: 32 Mln Shares Outstanding: 81 Mln Shares Diluted: 82.2 Mln Management Ownership: >50% Q4 is for October-December 2021. WTI oil prices have gone up a lot since so Q1 January-March have WTI market prices of somewhere $90 and at the moment we are seeing +$100. Let’s remember that viewing the Q4 financials in the MD&A. **Q1 Financials will be out in a month, end of May**. Vital Energy has been able to more than double its production due to 3 new wells as stated in the 5 October 2021 press release (enclosed down below). From 385 barrels in Q2 to 911 barrels daily in Q4. Furthermore, the company owns many more properties, as stated in the MD&A, and has more potential sites for new wells. 4 of the 8 properties are in production, meaning there isn’t a dependency on one location/property. The cost structure is easy as after the Operational Netbacks the company has only limited expenses. Cashflow in Q4 was used to pay back a loan, note 11, of a total 3.8 Mln and make the balance sheet even cleaner. Considering the high cash flow due to low costs and high oil prices, together with >50% insider ownership, this is not a risk. As can be seen below, the operational netback in Q4 was $70 dollars with a revenue of $84 per BOE. The average WTI was $77 in Q4. Let us remember that this is October – December and right now oil price is at $100 WTI. \*Please check on Sedar MD&A **Balance Sheet and Income Statement** **\*Please check on Sedar** **Insider Ownership** Management owns >50% of the shares so the float is tightly hold [https://www.vitalenergyoil.com/investor/stockqoute.html](https://www.vitalenergyoil.com/investor/stockqoute.html) **Oil Proved Reserves 31 December 2021 – they have more locations for drilling left** **\*Please check on Sedar** **Valuation** If you use the IWC (Microcap ETF) P/E ratio for the full year 2022 profit per share – expected based on production, oil price and cost structure - the stock is worth a lot more. That is for a company with a good balance sheet and a clear cashflow, not something you find in most microcaps as with this ETF. Therefore, using a P/E of 10-15 sounds very reasonable to me. This leaves out the potential growth of new oil wells. [https://stockanalysis.com/etf/iwc/](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/iwc/) Considering the production only started to increase since August, and oil prices are now at $100 WTI, I see a completely different picture for FY 2022. **Oil Industry** I’m positive towards oil as the world still needs oil. From 2011-2019 the world energy consumption increased by 10% and oil consumption source increased at the same rate according to this source. [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?country=\~OWID\_WRL](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?country=~OWID_WRL) ***\*Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, please do your own homework***

t3_udxph6

investing

Keep averaging down or wait?

So there's obviously a lot going on right now in the world between inflation, interest rates, and the Ukraine conflict. The usual advice is just keep averaging down and if your time frame is long enough it won't matter, but that being said it'll certainly sting a little to keep buying if we are headed south for the next couple years. How does everyone feel right now in this climate and are you doing or considering doing anything differently?

t3_udx78k

investing

The future of credit card companies vs. ApplePay, Cash App, Venmo, etc.

I see everything moving into (onto) your smartphone, no one carries cash anymore and and no one under 30 carries a credit card, it seems. Visa and AX reported solid earnings and expect a rebound in spending yet I am not sure how long they can continue to fend off all these digital payment processors (and cryptos), what’s the bull and bear thesis on these credit card companies, say 5-10 years down the line?

t3_udww2l

investing

GDP Unexpectedly contracts in Q1 2022

[https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/gdp1q22\_adv.pdf](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/gdp1q22_adv.pdf) ​ **DP annualized, quarter-over-quarter:** \-1.4% vs. 1.0% expected ​ The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased (though not as much as expected).

t3_uduelf

investing

Why I’m long on long read DNA sequencing ($PACB, LON:$ONT)

I work in the biotech field and want to lay out why the 2022 biotech sell-off has created an unparalleled opportunity to buy cheaply into technology leaders in a growing field. Specifically, I want to talk about two companies involved in DNA sequencing: the US-listed Pacific Biosciences ($PACB) and the UK-listed Oxford Nanopore Technologies (LON:$ONT). These are household names for people working in biotech but not widely known outside of the field. I will refer to them as PacBio and ONT in the main text below. **TL;DR:** PacBio and ONT are significantly undervalued leaders in long read DNA sequencing. Together they hold a duopoly in the long read sequencing market, with sizable technology-based moats that even the sequencing Goliath Illumina ($ILMN) with 80% market share has never been able to overcome. In the last 6 months, PacBio has lost 80% of its value and ONT has lost 45% of its value, providing excellent entry points. Bucking the stock price decline, in 2021, revenues grew 65% for PacBio and 94% for ONT as these companies scale up. Together PacBio and ONT own less than a 10% share of the DNA sequencing market, which is currently worth $5.8B. But both their market share as well as the total addressable market are likely to grow rapidly over the next ten years. Going long on PacBio and ONT therefore has a high probability of yielding a 10X return on investment. # What is DNA sequencing? For those who went to school before the Human Genome Project started in 1990 and those who forgot their high school biology, DNA sequencing is the process of reading out the nucleic acid sequence of a molecule of DNA. You know that stuff inside all of our cells which encodes our genetic blueprint. Importantly, this DNA is rich in valuable information. Some of the most important types of information we can extract from DNA sequence are: * genetic mutations that contribute to disease like cancer and other traits * genetic relationships to other sequences (i.e., who’s the father, or which kind of virus is this?) It’s useful to remember that roughly [half of common diseases](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2015.1684https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2015.1684), and [most rare diseases,](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6279436/) are heritable. For example, the risk of cystic fibrosis and breast cancer is well understood to be passed down from parents to their children. In cancer patients, different types of tumors also have different types of characteristic DNA mutations that can be [screened and diagnosed with DNA sequencing](https://humgenomics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40246-019-0220-8). As we've probably all read in the last few years, DNA sequencing has also been crucial for tracking the evolution of SARS-CoV2 and its variants. The bottom line here is that DNA sequencing provides vital information for improving public health. Information that governments, insurance providers and hospitals are willing to pay good money for. For those outside of the world of biology, I cannot understate how fast biotechnology and precision medicine are developing and how fundamental DNA sequencing is for that. # What is the total addressable DNA sequencing market? The DNA sequencing market had a size of [$5.8B in 2021](https://investor.pacificbiosciences.com/events-and-presentations). Together with the development of precision healthcare and genetic surveillance of pathogens, this market is expected to grow at a fast clip. Though I don’t put much stock into exact predictions, some reports put the DNA sequencing market compound annual growth rate at [\>10% from 2020 to 2027](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/dna-sequencing-market#:~:text=The%20global%20DNA%20sequencing%20market%20is%20expected%20to%20grow%20at,USD%2011.21%20billion%20by%202027). The key thesis here is that not too far in the future, it will become routine healthcare policy to sequence and securely store the DNA of most individuals in developed countries. On top of that, I and others expect that sending tumor biopsy samples for sequencing and surveilling wastewater and other environments by sequencing will become routine, greatly expanding the sequencing market. Because DNA sequencing is a fundamental step in lots of modern biotech labs, one way to view DNA sequencing companies is as a pick-and-shovel play on the biotech sector. PacBio estimates a [$40B+ total addressable market for DNA sequencing](https://investor.pacificbiosciences.com/static-files/9ee0d712-6974-4c44-83e9-5af75541add3) and I think that’s realistic considering today’s trends. # What’s the competitive landscape in DNA sequencing? DNA sequencing is not a crowded field, with only a handful of companies playing a significant role. One reason for this is that, similarly to the semiconductor industry, the sequencing industry has a high barrier to entry due to technological complexity. Illumina ($ILMN) remains the 600 pound gorilla in the DNA sequencing space with a market cap of 50B and [2021 revenues of $4.5B](https://investor.illumina.com/news/press-release-details/2022/Illumina-Reports-Financial-Results-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2021/default.aspx#:~:text=Fiscal%20year%202021%20consolidated%20results,%243%2C239%20million%20in%20fiscal%202020). This translates roughly to a market share of 80% based on the estimated size of the 2021 market. With revenues of [$130M for PacBio](https://www.pacb.com/press_releases/pacbio-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021-financial-results-3/) and [$177M for ONT](https://nanoporetech.com/about-us/news/preliminary-results-year-ended-31-december-2021-guidance-update-0), these companies are the Davids to Illumina’s Goliath. Today, PacBio commands a market cap of only $1.5B and ONT is in a similar but more highly valued ballpark of $3.5B. Despite the fact that PacBio has been around since 2004 and ONT since 2005, they have not yet had a significant impact on Illumina’s dominance. There are a few other companies worth mentioning to get the full picture, though I consider them less important for this thesis. In China, MGI is a large sequencing provider that reverse engineered Illumina’s technology and remains banned from the US market and has not penetrated the European market. One of the biggest biotech instrument producers Thermofisher ($TMO) makes the IonTorrent DNA sequencer, but it’s not competitive on price or data quality so is rarely used. There are also two new US companies (Singular Genomics $OMIC and the private Elements Biosciences) that will be launching sequencing instruments similar to Illumina’s in the next year or so. For those interested in more details, Keith Robinson is a scientist with a [great blog](http://omicsomics.blogspot.com/) on these and other sequencing technologies. # Why do we need long reads from PACB and ONT? When comparing sequencing technologies, the three main quality metrics we care about are sequence length (measured in bases), sequence accuracy and the cost per sequenced base. The longer, the more accurate, and the cheaper a sequence is, the better. I should state here that fundamentally, Illumina, PacBio and ONT use completely distinct sequencing technologies, each with some individual advantages. What makes PacBio and ONT unique compared to all the other sequencing companies is their *long reads*. All other technologies are based on *short reads*. As someone who has worked a lot with sequencing data, I can tell you that here size matters. Without getting too technical, DNA sequences from Illumina and the other sequencing companies are usually 50-500 bases in length while PacBio gives lengths around 10,000 bases and ONT comes packing 10,000-30,000 bases (sometimes up to several million bases). But why do we care about the sequence length, you ask? Well imagine the DNA sequences are pieces of a puzzle. The difference in getting answers from long read sequencing data and short read sequencing data is like the difference between putting together a 10 piece puzzle and a 100 piece puzzle. Not only that, the short read puzzle is usually missing 10% of its pieces. The reasons for this are technical and related to long stretches of repetitive sequence that make it hard to get the whole picture with short reads. There are notable exceptions where long reads are not needed, including liquid biopsy where we are sequencing short fragments of cancer DNA often less than 200 bases in length. But what matters is that for most applications, when using Illumina data, there’s a moderate amount (perhaps [roughly 25%](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002929722000659)) of genetic variation that remains hidden. Some of this hidden variation can cause disease. For example, Evan Eichler, a well-known scientist at the University of Washington, emphasized in a recent article that 34% of all disease-causing variation is made up of variants that are [larger than a single base change](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6681822/), which are more difficult to detect with short reads. We can conclude that long reads offer critical advantages over short reads in clinical and other applications. # How cost-competitive are long reads? The extra length of ONT and PacBio does come at a cost. The key cost metric is the price of a human genome (typically at 30x coverage, which means you sequence each base 30 times on average to make sure you don’t miss anything). Cost estimates can vary widely but sequencing expert [Albert Villela](https://twitter.com/AlbertVilella) has put together [a public tabular comparison of different providers](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GMMfhyLK0-q8XkIo3YxlWaZA5vVMuhU1kg41g4xLkXc/edit?hl=en_GB&hl=en_GB#gid=1569422585), from which I extracted some ballpark ranges. |*Sequencing provider*|*Cost per human genome*| |:-|:-| |Illumina/MGI|$1,000-$6,000| |ONT|$2,000-$6,000| |PacBio|$5,000-$40,000| Although I have to stress that cost estimates vary a lot, clearly Illumina has a lead on cost. However, if we are making clinical decisions affecting people’s health, arguably we healthcare providers may pay a premium to make sure they get the most complete possible information. On top of this, the cost of ONT and PacBio have come down considerably in the last few years and their pace of innovation here has outstripped Illumina. ONT actually reported in their 2021 annual results that they can already generate [a $345 human genome](https://nanoporetech.com/sites/default/files/s3/investors/reports/ONT%20FY21%20Results%20Presentation%20FINAL%2022.3.22.pdf) and are developing a system to go as low as $235, which would be groundbreaking if this translates to prices for users on the ground. I like to think of Illumina as similar to Intel: a long time market monopolist with juicy margins ([Illumina gross margin 69% for the last four years](https://ycharts.com/companies/ILMN/gross_profit_margin), nice) that has lost its innovative edge and kept iterating on the same short read sequencing technology. ONT has already come dangerously close in cost to Illumina, and has a real chance of becoming cheaper than Illumina in future. # Long read accuracy - still the Achilles heel? We need to now talk about sequence accuracy. What is this? Just like us humans, all sequencing methods make mistakes. These take the form of incorrect bases in the DNA sequence, like typos in a text. For many applications a few errors don’t matter, but when we care about detecting very specific genetic mutations related to disease, we want to avoid even a small number of errors. In the past, Illumina and others have downplayed the threat from long read sequencing by citing its lower sequence accuracy. And until recently it was uncommon to use PacBio or ONT data alone because you needed additional Illumina data to correct the mistakes in the long reads. In the last few years, this has changed as PacBio introduced high-fidelity HiFi reads and [ONT introduced its latest Kit 14 chemistry and duplex sequencing](https://nanoporetech.com/sites/default/files/s3/investors/reports/ONT%20FY21%20Results%20Presentation%20FINAL%2022.3.22.pdf). Illumina no longer has a monopoly on accurate high-throughput reads as the table below shows and [a recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.27.466057v2.full) nicely lays out. ​ |*Sequencing provider*|*Sequencing accuracy*| |:-|:-| |Illumina/MGI|99.9%| |ONT|95%-99.9%| |PacBio|98%-99.9%| All these error rates seem low, but remember when you sequence a human genome with 6.4 billion bases, a 99.9% error rate means 6.4 million errors. Even a 0.01% improvement is therefore a big deal. There is some fineprint to the table above and its based on manufacturer numbers and my own experience with the data and reading of the literature, but overall the three platforms are converging on [relatively similar error rates](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.27.466057v2.full]), undermining Illumina’s previous advantage. As a testament to this, short reads are no longer routinely used to supplement long reads in many published scientific studies. Interestingly, there is also a lot of interest from companies like Google to apply machine learning for improving sequencing accuracy. One study by Google and PacBio was able to [reduce errors by 42%](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.31.458403v1.full). These advances suggest to me that long reads can continue to make gains in accuracy and become the gold standard. # Beyond DNA sequence - detecting epigenetic modifiers Talking of machine learning, there is another neat feature of PacBio and ONT that I haven’t touched on: machine learning based epigenetic analysis. Bear with me. You may be aware that there is another layer on top of DNA sequence that can affect our genes, this is epigenetics. In practice it means there the DNA molecules get chemically modified, for example through the addition of a methyl group. When you slap a methyl group or some other modification on the DNA it can help turn genes on or off, making it important for some diseases and traits. Ok, biology lesson is over and I can get to the point. The data generated by PacBio and ONT actually allows [detection of DNA modifications like methylation](https://twitter.com/DRBFX/status/1517189018768883713). You get this information for free, together with the DNA sequence. All you need is the right machine learning algorithm and you can read off the epigenetics together with the genetics. Previously, the main way to study methylation was with a method called bisulfite sequencing that uses Illumina short reads and requires special sample preparation. It’s easier and just as, or more, accurate to do it with just PacBio or ONT. As an investor, epigenetics is particularly exciting because unlike genetics it changes for each person over time. A person‘s DNA only needs to be sequenced once, but we may want to track changes in methylation in different parts of the body over time once we understand the implications for health and aging. I hope that ka-ching sound is ringing for you too. Epigentics, like liquid biopsy for cancer and pathogen surveillance, means repeated revenue over time. Right now, there isn’t a huge market for epigenetic analysis and compared to the DNA sequence this is mostly a ‘nice to have’ but not key feature. But as we understand epigenetics better and demand picks up, this feature could fuel further growth for PacBio and ONT. # How ONT stands out One final advantage specific to ONT is its speed (measured as bases sequenced per hour) and the portability and flexibility of its instruments. ONT sequencing gives results in real-time and is generally faster than all the other technologies. A [recent study by Stanford scientists and Google](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2112090) showed that ONT can diagnose a patient by sequencing their genome in less than 8 hours. All other methods would take over a day to get the same results. Not all sequencing is time-critical, but in a clinical setting the speed of ONT gives it an edge. Incredibly, the ONT sequencing machines range in size from the dimension of a smartphone (MinIon) to a mini fridge (PromethION), while PacBio machines are fridge-sized and Illumina instrument sizes range from mini fridge to fridge. Finally, one recent ONT development that really blows my mind is their MinION Mk1D​, which combines [a MinION sequencer with an Apple iPad Pro](https://nanoporetech.com/products/minion-mk1d) so you can sequence on the go! This isn’t out yet and may never be a big seller, but I think it underlines how portable and exciting the ONT technology is. Although this point is more subtle, I also want to mention the extraordinary Read Until capability of ONT. This allows sequencing to stop when a target sequence (e.g. a specific disease-related mutation) is found and to reject non-target sequences before they get fully sequenced. If we consider the problem of finding a needle in a haystack, with PacBio and Illumina, you sequence every straw of hay and then look for the needle, whereas ONT can immediately discard straws until it finds the needle in real time, saving time and money. These unique advantages of ONT are the reason that I, [together with other scientists in a twitter poll](https://twitter.com/TJesse62/status/1509927475077394438), think that ONT sequencing will ultimately prevail over PacBio thanks to its longer reads, greater portability and lower cost. # Financial fundamentals and valuation Despite impressive 2021 yearly revenue growth of [65% for PacBio](https://www.pacb.com/press_releases/pacbio-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021-financial-results-3/#:~:text=Fiscal%20year%202021%20results,with%20%2434.3%20million%20in%202020) and [94% for ONT](https://nanoporetech.com/about-us/news/preliminary-results-year-ended-31-december-2021-guidance-update-0), both companies still have negative earnings per share, losing $181M and $213M in 2021 respectively. Profitability may still be years away, as the leadership of both companies advises. Still, as shown below these are high margin businesses and can become profitable with scale. |*Sequencing provider*|*Gross profit margins (2021)*| |:-|:-| |Illumina|69%| |ONT|55%| |PacBio|45%| Some good news is that in 2021 both companies secured additional cash to fuel their growth. PacBio raised money (via convertible senior notes) from Softbank and reported cash and equivalents of $1B in the last quarter and ONT raised money through an IPO and reported $0.8B. Now a word on valuation. Valuing unprofitable biotech companies based on financials is tough. With a price-to-sales ratio (2021 revenues divided by today’s market cap) of 12 for PacBio and 20 for ONT, the long read companies are comparable to Illumina that comes in at 12 but more expensive than a mature biotech company like Thermofisher at 5. Importantly though, these multiples are nothing crazy like the >50 price-to-sales ratios of biotech companies like Twist Biosciences ($TWST), BioNano ($BNGO) and even PacBio that we saw last year. Today PacBio is worth less than the $8/share that Illumina offered in its foiled [acquisition attempt in 2018](https://www.pacb.com/press_releases/illumina-to-acquire-pacific-biosciences-for-approximately-1-2-billion-broadening-access-to-long-read-sequencing-and-accelerating-scientific-discovery/) and ONT is worth much less than the [$5.4/share IPO price](https://www.reuters.com/business/oxford-nanopore-eyes-47-billion-market-value-london-debut-2021-09-30/). These are unprofitable biotech companies in the early stages of growth. It’s likely that this factor alone is the main reason these companies have been sold off (or sold short) as fears of inflation and recession swirl. For long-term investors, this presents a considerable opportunity. # Company leadership I don’t have many particular thoughts on the ONT and PacBio leadership, but my overall impression based on company performance, interviews and Glassdoor reports is relatively positive. ONT has been led by its co-founder Gordon Sanghera, Ph.D. since 2005. The consistency and the scientific experience of the leadership here is a benefit for me. I think Dr Sanghera has substantial skin in the game and will execute on the long term vision for the company. He also holds anti-takeover shares to help ensure ONT can fulfill its potential rather than be gobbled up by a company like Illumina or Thermofisher. PacBio’s CEO Christian Henry has an MBA background and was a long-time Illumina executive before taking the job at PacBio in 2020. He brought along a number of other Illumina employees to pick up key roles at PacBio. I think Mr Henry has made some aggressive moves, like acquiring short read sequencing company Omniome and sample preparation firm Circulomics. I’m particularly hoping that the Illumina experience of the new PacBio leadership will help them to get their technology out there and drive sales, which is what Illumina excels at. # Risks Any savvy investor will realize that investing in unprofitable biotech companies is considerably more risky than a global market ETF. For PacBio and ONT specifically, there are several risks that could lead to a decline in the stock price. The main long-term risk is competition. Illumina is aiming to provide their own [synthetic long read sequencing technology](https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing/long-read-sequencing.html). While this has been touted by some stock analysts, I share the [skepticism of other scientists about Illumina’s technology](http://omicsomics.blogspot.com/2022/01/illumina-teases-two-glittering-enigmas.html), which relies on stitching together short reads. A more realistic threat may be that Illumina drops their short read prices since they can no longer compete on sequence accuracy or length. This could take some sales from long read companies, but for many applications the benefits of true long reads are essential. PacBio and ONT are also direct competitors and it’s likely that one of them will emerge as a winner sooner or later. I’m hedging against this by holding both. My personal assessment is that currently PacBio has a more 'production-level' product and better customer service but ONT has the superior technology. A short-term risk is that macro headwinds further depress prices of growth stocks in 2022. A potential hedge against this is to spread out investments over this year. Although I may well be wrong, I personally think we are close to the bottom on biotech stocks based on reasonable valuation multiples and continued growth in the face of supply chain issues and other headwinds. Finally, both companies have high institutional ownership. ARK Genomics is the biggest PacBio shareholder with 10% ownership and the IP Group owns 14% of ONT. I don’t see a major long-term risk in this, but ARK and IP Group could eventually decide to dump their stock. Some might also see the high institutional ownership in both companies as a vote of confidence. For instance, Oracle bought a $190M stake in ONT last year and Tencent was also an early investor. All this is good to know, but overall the ownership of PacBio and ONT doesn’t impact my investment decisions in either direction. # Conclusion PacBio and ONT have unique industry-leading technology and are poised for rapid growth in the expanding market of DNA sequencing. With a total addressable market estimated at $40B and combined 2021 revenues of $300M, PacBio and ONT have lots of room to aggressively grow their market share against incumbent Illumina. Long reads are becoming longer, cheaper, and more accurate and provide fundamentally more useful information than Illumina’s short reads that currently dominate the market. My long-term thesis is that long read sequencing technology won’t entirely displace short reads, but will increase its market share tenfold or more in the long term. The 2022 biotech sell-off has provided an attractive entry point to initiate a long position. And that’s why I’m going long on long reads. *Disclaimer: I’ve allocated 8% of my portfolio to ONT and 5% to PacBio. I aim to hold over 10 years, rebalancing if changes in technology or valuations justify it. Do your own DD and let me know your thoughts.*

t3_udtyqm

investing

In conditions of high inflation, gold shines more than ever.

The inflation is rising faster that even I thought. But what is [inflation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp)? Contrary to common belief, inflation is not rising prices. The prices of goods measured in money i.e. gold or silver are pretty much the same if not lower than they were 60 years ago. Inflation is the loss of the purchasing power by a currency. Currency. What we have in our pockets is not money. It's currency. It has been like that since '60s when the world decided to switch to paper because... well, nobody knows why. It doesn't make sense to pay with inflatable paper. Before that we had money. It was gold and silver for thousands of years in comparison with just 60 years of FIAT(paper currency). Now, for a silver half dollar before 1965 you have to pay more than 20 times more of its face value in fake dollars. Read that outloud for yourself. It sounds funny. I believe that with offical inflation at 8,5% (we all know that this is a lie) the system and what I call "The Great Fiat Experminent" are doomed to fall apart. We're well beyond the point of beginning of the process. How many years will it take to crash completely? Nobody knows. But one thing is sure. It will end. History shows that there's not been a single paper currency in the world that survived. Look how gold has risen since abandoning the precious metals standard: [https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices?gclid=CjwKCAjw9qiTBhBbEiwAp-GE0RE659EmfOrZCtxgjlcihDeccZ4ZCq8EpmuOiw9LZx8GiwUA1W1ITxoCIv4QAvD\_BwE](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices?gclid=CjwKCAjw9qiTBhBbEiwAp-GE0RE659EmfOrZCtxgjlcihDeccZ4ZCq8EpmuOiw9LZx8GiwUA1W1ITxoCIv4QAvD_BwE) You, English speakers even say: "As good as gold". And, indeed, it is good. Pandemic, war, hyperinflation, you name it. It's a long term investment counted in years but is safe and reliable. I would say that physical silver is even a better investment due to its insane ratio of "paper to physical" (345:1) on COMEX. Please educate yourselves and your dearest. This post only scratches the surface. Some more info: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU) "When money dies" by Adam Fergusson [https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/nwzadx/a\_comprehensive\_compilation\_of\_all\_due\_diligence/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/nwzadx/a_comprehensive_compilation_of_all_due_diligence/)

t3_udr4ez

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 28, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_udqpod

investing

Stock spilt after buyback

Hi I’m wondering how a stock spilt after a buyback affects a stock, doesn’t the stock spilt essential return the floating shares back to the market that the buyback did? Wondering for stocks like Google and Amazon, considering Google announced a $70b buyback but also a stock spilt of 20:1.

t3_udlqr1

investing

Name a stock, and ilk tell you the fair price per share.

I got a new algorithm I'm having fun with, and want to crank some more assets through. Let me know what you are watching and.......................................... I'll value it....................... don't take my advice though....................... just for fun. edit: I posted results so far over here: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ue0sp0/followup_here_are_the_results_so_far_from_my/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

t3_udklo1

investing

I need to make at least $400-500+ a week with investing.

I can daytrade or swing trade or whatever. The method isn't important as I have unlimited time all day to focus on the market. I also have (currently) about $30k in my investment portfolio, but can move another $10k or so if needed. I just don't know what way is best to do it. I've dabbled with daytrading here and there and have had some lucky days but have also lost far more than I've made due to the risky nature of daytrading. I'm not experienced enough to consistently make that kind of money daytrading without major losses offsetting my profits. I've had good luck on some swing trades but at times waiting for an exit position takes longer than is ideal and wouldnt bring a consistent stream of weekly income. What would you guys do in my position? Should I take a trading course? Is there a safer investment that can generate this kind of steady income on a regular basis? I'm not looking to make a living off of this but would like to supplement my normal salary if possible.

t3_udjaaf

investing

What's going on with financial stocks like $BAC and $SCHW?

What's going on with financial stocks like $BAC and $SCHW? I picked them especially BAC bc of the supposed rate increases that were going to be happening from the FED, and were seen as "safety" stocks in a volatile market. Instead they have become slowly and surely (not in major drops but a slow trickle down) my 2 worst positions down 20% in both with a decent % of my portfolio invested in them. I am concerned but at the same time don't want to take big losses on them but what concerns me is it is off no news. When the market goes up, these 2 especially $SCHW still barely move.

t3_udgwy6

investing

Facebook shares spike on better-than-expected quarterly earnings

Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/meta-fb-q1-2022-earnings.html >Shares of Facebook parent Meta jumped 18% in extended trading on Wednesday after the company reported earnings that topped estimates even as revenue was disappointing. >The after-hours rally on Wednesday still leaves the stock way down for the year. As of the close, the shares had lost almost half their value in 2022. >In addition to its earnings figure, Facebook also exceeded expectations for average revenue per user. But almost every other key metric was a miss, including monthly active users. >Revenue rose 7% in the quarter, the first time in Facebook’s 10-year history as a public company that growth has landed in the single digits. Analysts were expecting 7.8% growth. >For the second quarter, Facebook forecast revenue of $28 billion to $30 billion, trailing the $30.6 billion estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company said in the release that the guidance reflects continued trends from the first quarter, including soft revenue growth that “coincided with the war in Ukraine.” >Facebook changed its name to Meta in October, reflecting CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s effort to push the company towards a future that includes working, playing and studying in a virtual world. >Facebook’s family of apps, including the core app, Instagram and WhatsApp, accounted for 97.5% of revenue in the quarter. The remaining $695 million came from Reality Labs, the part of the company that’s attempting to build products for the metaverse. >In the family of apps business, net income dropped 13% from a year earlier to $11.48 billion. Reality Labs lost $2.96 billion in the period compared with a loss of $1.83 billion in the first quarter of 2021. >Facebook lowered its total expenses guidance for 2022 to somewhere between $87 billion and $92 billion, below its earlier estimate of $90 billion to $95 billion. It expects most of that expense growth to be driven by its family of apps segment, followed by Reality Labs. >Other social media companies similarly pointed to macroeconomic factors impacting their advertising revenue. Snap CEO Evan Spiegel called the first quarter “more challenging than we had expected.” The company said some advertisers had paused advertising campaigns after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Google-owned YouTube grew just 14% in the first quarter, far below the 25% analysts had expected. >Digital ads could also be impacted by inflation and Apple’s recent privacy changes on iPhone operating systems, which Meta CFO Dave Wehner previously predicted would result in a $10 billion revenue hit in 2022, though he acknowledged that figure was an estimate. Shares are up 20% in After Hour trading. Disclaimer: I have [long positions in $FB](https://www.wealthly.com/share/5RH4FH), and I was partially influenced to hold my positions after reading [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/u8w2wa/is_meta_platforms_inc_fb_a_value_pick_or_value/i5o4859/) from /u/living-pineapple-589. Good call so far sir.

t3_udec7z

investing

To Everyone Asking if Buying Twitter is Free Money

First, I understand this may be the first merger you've been exposed to. As much as it grinds my gears that this question is only asked about Twitter and not the countless other mergers that go through I'll provide some data on the strategy of buying companies that will be acquired. Is it free money? Yes and no. First, let's look at a fund that focuses primarily on buying companies that have had an announcement regarding their acquisition. IQ Merger Arbitrage ETF (MNA) This ETF has returned 2.68% annualized over the last ten years and 2.49% since inception. If you exclude fees and assume you do this yourself, over the last ten years it has done 3.56% annualized. Is this free money? If you consider anything with a positive return to be free money, then yes. However I should remind you the S&P 500 has done around 14% annualized over the same time period. The strategy fails for the same reason the martingale roulette strategy fails. You make very little money with each 'success' and your failures eat many 'successes' given how large the drawdowns are when mergers get cancelled. When mergers get cancelled they almost always immediately lose whatever premium they received from the merger announcement. From personal experience, these companies rarely perform well after a failed merger as well. Hope that helps. TLDR [ImpressiveCitron420](https://www.reddit.com/user/ImpressiveCitron420/) wrote a great TLDR that simplifies things: It's not free money. It's money in exchange for risk. There's a risk that the merger won't happen (as OP says). This is what the premium is paid out for and why the price is not at the buy out price currently. The problem however, is that on a risk adjusted basis, this gives poor returns compared to the SP500. ​

t3_udcsye

investing

Does anyone have any advise for dividend investing? id like to learn as much as I can about it.

Looking to get into dividend investing and im unsure how to do it. The market has me kind of nervous and returns are not as high right now anyway. I am trying to maximize my investments and was wondering if I could do this with dividend investing. Am I able to make a decent amount of money with dividend investing or is it not that great? Id like to put some in my Roth to help it grow as well as invest in a taxable account to generate some secondary income. Does anyone have luck with this or know anyone who posts blogs on the topic?

t3_udcsw1

investing

Are there still any arkk fans out there?

ARKK has dipped severely back to its price circa 2019. Despite this, if you look from 2016-2019, you can see that someone who had invested in the fund would have 3x their money. Wondering if anyone is still bullish on this fund for the future and if anyone is buying the dip. Seems like the perfect time to buy, but sentiment is currently dead.

t3_udc7md

investing

What’s the best option for losses in the stock market.

My initial investment in Robin hood stocks were 15k and after the elections I have lost up-to 80% in some of my stocks totaling up to 7k in losses total. Would it be smarter to throw the rest of what I have left off and put it into a professional investments to try and make over 80% to try and at least make it back and then write all the rest off in losses which won’t meet up to my standard deduction? Or keep it in and hope that everything goes back up?

t3_udayiy

investing

Share Dilution. Is it good for retail investors?

Can anyone give a legit answer on how this is good for retail investors. I got legit banned from my favorite stock sub for calling this out. I guess I was spreading FUD? This specific stock was pumping like crazy beginning of 2021 and the CEO added something like 1 billion shares on top of the 1 billion outstanding already, in a time span of 6 or 8 months i want to say. Now this stock is at risk of being delisted as it’s been below a dollar for a while now. It almost seemed like the CEO took everyones money and doesn’t give 2 poopies about the retail investor.

t3_ud9y89

investing

What investment classes are doing well?

I’ve heard diversification is the key to weathering the storm but I’m having a hard time seeing what investment classes are doing well. I have small/mid/large cap stock, gold, crypto, reits, and real estate. It’s all down the past couple weeks or so

t3_ud9ec4

investing

Fidelity 401k - need an investment critique

My company’s 401k is through Fidelity. I (35) have been contributing the annual max to the following three funds: - Fidelity Growth Company Commingled Pool Class 2 - Blackrock Equity Index Fund - Blackrock Russell 2500 Last year my 1Y Rate of Return was crazy good, like 40-45%. This YTD it’s currently -17.8%. I don’t consider myself comfortably well-versed on the topic and I’m not interested in frequent changes of my 401k account, but should I continue to take no action and ride it out, or should I perhaps be making changes? TIA!

t3_ud8mpg

investing

Plant-based Sector needs a bit of TLC? Let's get into it

My last post BRIEFLY touched on the sector and how I feel. Essentially, I feel (a) anyone invested in the space now is simply early to an inevitable party (one that only serves vegan burgers, of course) (b) the downturn we have seen is essentially the result of OVERALL economic consternation (rising rates, war, etc.) and rotation to the "ol' reliable", such as commodities. Let's look at the data: ​ >\- Plant-based food dollar sales grew six percent in 2021 (*3x faster than overall food sales*) to a market of *$7.4B* > >\- That growth was pretty good considering pandemic challenges and supply chain choke points > >\- As people begin to care more about social justice and sustainability, the indication is that their wallets follow suit > >\- Plant based category share is increasing *(4% increase of dollar share & 79% 3-year dollar share growth)* > >\- Units of plant-based foods (individual products sold) are up compared to overall units of food > >\- Plant based meals & cheeses sales grew by *9% ($513M) & 7% ($290M)* (a case for a company like **$VEGI** | **$VGGIF** to be a good investment) > >\- 62% of U.S. households are now buying plant-based products (*repeat consumers sit at 79%*) (think of companies that have Amazon-like marketplaces, like **$VEJI** | **$VEJIF**) > >\- Millennials and Gen Z (*47% of the population*) will grow in spending power, and they care about eating habits and the consciousness of those habits (think of your annoying Vegan friend) ​ All in all, I am saying what I have said before...this industry is coming. whether you like it or not, plant-based & sustainable living industry will move from the fringes to the main stream. The key will be not if you enter this foray, but how and what horse you pick. Companies like **$VEGI, $BYND** make ready-made plant-based meals, that are affordable and accessible (which I think are MAJOR factors you need to change eating habits as history has taught us). A company like **$VEJI** makes it easy and break down barriers to buying a multitude of plant-based products. Again, the key here is consumer choice and ease of process(es).

t3_ud7yzj

investing

Portfolio/modelling advice: I want to replicate New Age Alphas H factor algorithm which back solve growth expectations implied by current share prices. Over what time horizon should growth implied by share prices be measured? Can this be standardised to compare growth expectations across companies?

I wondered if anyone could assist. I am trying to build a portfolio that assesses the growth rate implied by company share prices. The criteria for inclusion/exclusion of a company is based on whether the implied growth seems too high relative to historical growth. If this is the case then this company would be marked down and those with more achievable growth rates would be marked up. This is essentially the same as the F factor method proposed by New Age Alpha [New Age Alpha Hedge Fund (newagealphahf.com)](https://www.newagealphahf.com/) (Refer to the quote at the bottom which outlines their strategy at a high level) Firstly, I love this investment thesis and hence want to replicate it. My issue however is that each company likely has a different time horizon for growth. So how are New Age Alpha controlling for this? Do they look one year ahead, four years ahead, or some other number of years? To take Tesla as a stylised example: revenue growth was 70% in 2021 and has been 50% on average since 2017. I built a hypothetical DCF that solves to the current share price of $916 per share. My model uses 3 stages of growth ( 3 years of constant high growth \[at the most recent growth rate\] followed by a 6 year declining growth period to finally, a terminal value which uses 2% inflationary growth). This isn't necessarily my opinion of Tesla growth trajectory but serves as an example for now. The model tells me that the revenue growth priced into the Tesla share price is 70% growth for 3 years, followed by a linear decline to inflationary growth. This amounts to a 9 year horizon. I would then determine statistically - based on the last 4 years of Tesla growth, do I think this is achievable? If yes, then I would give Tesla a high number and keep Tesla in my portfolio as I think the share price adequately reflects what the company is expected to achieve. The issue is, I chose this growth trajectory at random. Should I be standardising the time horizon across companies to compare them? If I chose a much shorter time horizon then Tesla would need to exhibit higher growth, and vice versa, if I chose a longer time horizon then they would need lower growth to justify the share price. Curious how the guys at New Age Alpha are dealing with this but their website isn't very helpful. New Age Alpha Prospectus states as follows: "The H-Factor algorithm measures how human biases affect stock prices and calculates and assigns H-Factor Scores to each component of the S&P 500® Index. Using a probability-based approach, the algorithm determines the probability that the company will not deliver growth to support its stock price. The algorithm compares the company’s implied revenue growth rate, which is calculated by using the company’s stock price, current and historical financial statements, market data, and other publicly available financial information, such as the company’s revenue, against the company’s historical revenue growth rates to determine how likely the company is to deliver the growth in revenue implied by its stock price. The algorithm is capable of utilizing inputs from different valuation models, such as revenue, cash flow, multiples, comparable, and earnings-based models. Under the algorithm methodology, a high H-Factor Score means that a stock is relatively overpriced and has a higher probability of not delivering growth to support the stock price (*i.e.,* according to the methodology, the stock is a loser). Conversely, a low H-Factor Score means that, according to the methodology, a stock is relatively underpriced and has a lower probability of not delivering growth to support the stock price." TLDR: Over what time horizon should growth implied by share prices be measured? Can this be standardised to compare growth expectations across companies?

t3_ud5twu

investing

Data on portfolio rebalancing methods?

Has anyone seen any data that shows long-term performance for different rebalancing methods? For example, does rebalancing monthly perform better than yearly, or does rebalancing when a portion of the portfolio has grown past a certain percentage outperform?

t3_ud5cyc

investing

Microbiome/ gut health stocks?

Having to learn about the microbiome in relation to my own health issues has showed me how important and yet underappreciated the microbiome actually is in all aspects of human health. I'm about to start diving into the investing side, does anyone have any companies they recommend me to start looking at?

t3_ud5az2

investing

[WSJ] Facebook Parent Meta Expected to Post Slowest Revenue Growth Since IPO

https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-platforms-facebook-fb-q1-earnings-report-2022-11651022191 Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. is expected to post its slowest revenue growth on record as the company navigates growing competition for users and privacy headwinds in its advertising business. Meta’s stock price was battered in February when it posted quarterly results that showed a sharper-than-expected decline in profit, a gloomy revenue outlook and a drop in its daily active users.

t3_ud5ayv

investing

Lucid Motors - Saudi Risks?

In case you didn't know around most shares of Lucid are held by the Saudi Kingdom (around 60%). ​ Regarding this fact several questions came up to my mind. ​ What does it mean to you that the Saudis own most of the shares? What risks do you see? Could the Saudis take the company private any day if they like to do so? If your return would be negative you won't be able to hold the shares anymore to turn positive again. Or are we somehow protected because - as far as I know - the registred office of Lucid is in the US? ​ Is it possible that in the future Lucid could get rid of the Saudis? How? ​ Regardings this risks it may make people rethink about their (potential) investment. ​ I'm curios about your thoughts. Thanks!

t3_ud4qyu

investing

Cost Efficient Small or Mid Cap Emerging Market ETF or MF Recommendation?

I want to weight my portfolio a little more in EM, preferably more in the Value side. I'm not well versed enough in emerging markets to say what region of the world I prefer to be more heavy in, so any ideas there would be appreciated. Any suggestions?

t3_ud3ym4

investing

Betting/shorting against academia

I realise that "academia" is a very vague thing to ask if you can short, but I'm absolutely convinced that it represents a bubble that will eventually burst. To me, the fees people are paying for degrees that are becoming more and more meaningless, high grades becoming the usual rather than the exception, the money spent on pumping oit meaningless publications, online learning becoming the norm in and out of universities, all of these are building to a point where people will see that this model is not functioning And so I'm asking for advice, if anyone has any idea on a way to bet on this knowledge in the form of an investment? Or if anyone has any thoughts on the subject? Thanks!

t3_ud3pz3

investing

Is it worth buying Google or Amazon as a retail investor at their current prices? They are so expensive for just 1 stock.

At prices like 2,373.00 USD (Google) and 2,787.82 USD (Amazon) it seems like the return is very minimal for such an expensive stock, could it really go even higher than those prices? It seems like these are investment opportunities for only the rich to make any actual gains on. I believe I heard they were doing a split this year, I suppose retail investors should wait until then?

t3_ud3mwh

investing

Treasury Direct Account Locked

Has anyone had success unlocking their treasury direct account? I logged in yesterday and it prompted me for 9(!!!!!) secret questions after I entered my password. I must have Mis-answered or had the case wrong because it then locked my account. I’ve tried calling the number they gave me, and was on hold for 4 hours yesterday. Has anyone had any luck getting through? edit: OP's log 3 hours 21 minutes, I have made contact with a very overwhelmed sounding employee

t3_ud3f65

investing

What are some modern European investment funds for retail clients?

I'm looking for investment opportunities across the money management industry in Europe and I'd appreciate your advice! What I hope to find is a fund with focus not so much on index investing but rather a modern approach with focus on tech/disruptive innovation/Web3. A great example is [Titan.com](https://titan.com/), backed by some solid VCs like a16z. Unfortunately, it's available only for US citizens. ETFs are also an option as long as they are available for European citizens. Thanks!

t3_ud3d6u

investing

What do we think about Toast TOST?

It has come down considerably as of its IPO, I am in IT in the hospitality industry and EVERYONE is ditching traditional POS systems for Toast. I feel at the current value it may be time to make a move. As they start to integrate with hotel PMS systems they should get much more business as well. We are all so sick of NCR and Oracle Micros, there is much more on the table for available customers.

t3_ud1llf

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 27, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_ucz6h6

investing

New-ish to Investing but Really Want to Get Into it

Hi, I’m 22F (23 in a week) and I just bought my first I-Bond. Only $25 though, just to get started. I’ve been investing in the stock market since I was 18 and made my first crypto investment at 15. I want to also invest in real estate but that wasn’t a dream until I bought my first home at 21. I’ve “nickled and dimed” investing by buying $5 of stocks here and there. So far I’ve made a whopping $130 doing that (never took my money out so technically haven’t made anything). Big money over here, I know, don’t get too jealous now /s. Even though I’ve been investing for almost a decade, I really want to get more than my feet wet, I just don’t know where. If I’m being honest I’m really scared of taking risks. I’m enamored and in love with the thought of investing and the whole thought of “free money”: I follow influential investors and read their books but just feel like they’re super lucky and I’ll never have that luck. I don’t have thousands just lying around, so where can a basically broke person (compared to other posts I see) invest? I’m trying to do research for when I get back into the work force after I graduate from college and can really get the ball rolling with having an income again. Obviously I know that I can’t really get a cheat sheet to this stuff, I’m just wondering if anyone was once someone like me when it came to investing and got over their fears and didn’t absolutely lose all their money. TL;DR I have a pretty small portfolio but not completely ignorant to what investing is and I have a general idea of what’s all out there. I do not work at the moment but I do have $1,000 a month income and I am a young person that can’t seem to get over the fear of risk even though I’ve been investing since I was 15. I would like to know good options for investing when I start working again and can put more than chump change towards an investment and possibly a way to get over the fear of risk.

t3_ucyhlh

investing

If buying the dip is most profitable, why do dips even happen?

Basically title, We know that buying stocks when they are falling gives better returns than buying at all time highs. If that’s the case, why does the market dip so hard? For me personally I know that I buy more stocks now than a couple of months ago, why isn’t everyone doing the same?

t3_ucwxbl

investing

Considering switching from Morgan Stanley to Fidelity

Morgan Stanley currently charges me 1% a year, and according to Fidelity’s website, they charge 0%. Is this accurate? How can there be 0% fees and commissions? Are there any hidden fees? Also, if I was to switch my holdings to another brokerage I won’t get taxed on that right ?

t3_uctmwc

investing

Fidelity announced this morning (2022-04-26) that they will be the first major retirement plan to allow investors to put bitcoin in their 401k plans (Investopedia).

Fidelity announced this morning (2022-04-26) that they will be the first major retirement plan to allow investors to put bitcoin in their 401k plans. > Fidelity Offers Bitcoin as 401(k) Investment Option > Will become first provider to allow cryptocurrency in 401(k) accounts > By MARK KOLAKOWSKI Published April 26, 2022 > Fidelity Investments has become the first retirement plan provider to allow cryptocurrencies in the 401(k) accounts that it services, starting with Bitcoin (BTC). This investment option will become available by mid-2022 to 23,000 employers that use Fidelity to administer their retirement accounts. Since Fidelity has $11.3 trillion in assets under administration (AUA), making it the largest retirement plan provider in the U.S., this move represents a major milestone in the mainstreaming of crypto.1 > > Dave Gray, head of workplace retirement offerings and platforms at Fidelity stated: "There is growing interest from plan sponsors for vehicles that enable them to provide their employees access to digital assets in defined contribution plans, and in turn from individuals with an appetite to incorporate cryptocurrencies into their long-term investment strategies." Business software provider MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) reportedly will be the first employer to offer Bitcoin as an investment option in its employee retirement plans.1 > > KEY TAKEAWAYS > Fidelity will offer Bitcoin as an investment option in 401(k) plans starting sometime in mid-2022. > How much plan participants can put into Bitcoin will be determined by their employers, but a maximum of 20% is likely. > This is likely to give a major boost to the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency. > However, the U.S. Department of Labor has "serious concerns" about crypto in retirement plans, due to the high risks. > Fidelity Account Details > Initial reports indicate that investors in the Bitcoin-eligible retirement plans administered by Fidelity will be able to allocate up to 20% of their accounts to this investment option, although this figure may change. Moreover, the cap on Bitcoin investments will be determined by the employer.23 > > Fees for Bitcoin-eligible accounts reportedly are planned to range between 0.75% and 0.90% of assets, with the exact amount to depend on the amount invested and the employer. Additional fees, particularly per-trade fees, reportedly also will be charged.23 > > Mainstreaming Crypto > Fidelity's move would allow first-time crypto investors to obtain Bitcoin without having to make a separate account on a crypto exchange. This is likely to become a major boost to acceptance of crypto as an investment alternative. In the subset of retirement plans represented by 401(k) plans, Fidelity held an estimated $2.4 trillion of assets as of 2020, making it the third-largest provider in this segment.2 > > In November 2021, Fidelity launched the first regulated offering in Canada that offered Bitcoin custody and trading services for institutional investors. Fidelity next launched two publicly traded bitcoin funds in December 2021 on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). In 2022, Fidelity has launched similar products in Switzerland and Germany.2 > > 'Serious Concerns' From Department of Labor > In March 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) warned that cryptocurrencies were speculative and volatile investments with inflated valuation. The DOL expressed "serious concerns" about providers offering cryptocurrencies in retirement plans. The DOL also stressed that providers must offer adequate information to potential investors about the risks involved in cryptocurrency investing, including the volatile prices and the evolving regulatory environment.2 > > > Role of Microstrategy > As noted above, business analytics software provider MicroStrategy reportedly has signed on to become the first employer offering Bitcoin in its 401(k) plans administered by Fidelity. That company holds billions of dollars in Bitcoin, and its founder Michael Saylor is a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency through numerous tweets on the subject.2

t3_ucsilw

investing

Be careful when calculating what interest you'll be receiving on I-Bonds, you may not beat inflation!

I've seen a lot of recommendations of I-Bonds, but a fact that I haven't seen mentioned is that, unless you hold the bond for a minimum 5 years, selling your bond will lose you the last 3 months of interest. This means that the shorter timeframe you hold the bond for, the more of an effect this will have on your nominal return.

t3_ucs5hn

investing

VGT losing Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal

So I recently learned that the MSCI index that VGT tracks is moving the three stocks I listed, as well as lots of others, out of the tech sector. I really liked VGT as a tech tilt *because* it has these “financial” stocks. What do you all think about the restructuring? How much do you think it will affect VGT?

t3_ucs0am

investing

Thoughts on why bitcoin's trend is anchored to the sell-off of technology stocks

I've been hearing recently that the sell-off in tech stocks is causing a sell-off in Bitcoin and other digital assets. What I want to know is, do cryptocurrency mining companies play a fundamental role in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets' value? and perhaps the sell-off in the exchanges where these companies are listed is what's causing the correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks?

t3_ucqpsa

investing

Real Yields Wade Toward Positive Territory, Denting Stocks

https://www.wsj.com/articles/real-yields-wade-toward-positive-territory-denting-stocks-11650934492?mod=hp_lead_pos4 Yields on government bonds are catching up with expected inflation after years of lagging behind it, a threat to the speculative stock-market bets that proliferated in the era of rock-bottom rates and economic stimulus. Bond yields that trail inflation push investors to seek an alternative; many found it in the stock market, powering a surge in risky assets. Often known as real yields, the yields on TIPS fell deeply negative at the start of the pandemic, meaning investors were guaranteed to lose money on an inflation-adjusted basis if they held the bonds to maturity. That helped power a surge in stocks by pushing investors toward riskier assets for better returns. Now analysts expect that time to end, with central banks pulling back from their efforts to stimulate economic growth by holding rates ultralow and buying bonds. Many now expect the Fed to fight inflation with a series of rapid rate increases, including a half-percentage point move next month. That rapid shift in expectations has dented shares of low-profit tech companies and speculative wagers including Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund. The ETF targets companies it believes offer the greatest potential for innovation such as Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc. It gained popularity in 2020 when the Fed cut rates and investors chased high returns in riskier places. Known by its ticker ARKK, the fund has plunged 20% since the beginning of April, bringing its year-to-date decline to 44%, as of Monday. “For the first time in a while fixed income probably looks attractive relative to riskier assets like the stock market,” said Lisa Hornby, head of U.S. multi sector fixed income at Schroders.

t3_ucqayl

investing

Thoughts on APPH, controlled environment agriculture?

I’ve been buying APPH down from about $8, at $4 and have this seems to be a more reasonable price. I’m considering going big on this, it basically has a perfect ESG profile and demand will likely be increasing as they flesh out more types of fruit and vegetables. It’s definitely a long term play, just wanted some thoughts

t3_ucpf64

investing

Robinhood Lays Off 9% Of Full-Time Employees After Decline In Users

[https://blog.robinhood.com/](https://blog.robinhood.com/) *Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev shared the below to Robinhood employees following a company-wide meeting to discuss the changes.* Today we made the difficult announcement that we are letting go approximately 9% of our full-time employees. While this decision was necessary, it was not one we undertook lightly, and I’d like to share our rationale.  As you know, throughout 2020 and H1 2021, we went through a period of hyper growth accelerated by several factors including pandemic lockdowns, low interest rates, and fiscal stimulus. We grew net funded accounts from 5M to 22M and revenue from \~$278M in 2019 to over $1.8B in 2021. To meet customer and market demands, we grew our headcount almost 6X from 700 to nearly 3800 in that time period. This rapid headcount growth has led to some duplicate roles and job functions, and more layers and complexity than are optimal. After carefully considering all these factors, we determined that making these reductions to Robinhood’s staff is the right decision to improve efficiency, increase our velocity, and ensure that we are responsive to the changing needs of our customers.

t3_ucp8pg

investing

Microsoft earnings report

· Revenue was $49.4 billion and increased 18% · Operating income was $20.4 billion and increased 19% · Net income was $16.7 billion and increased 8% GAAP (up 13% non-GAAP) · Diluted earnings per share was $2.22 and increased 9% GAAP (up 14% non-GAAP) https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2022-q3/press-release-webcast

t3_ucowsu

investing

Fundrise v. Saving for Down Payment

Hello! I am a 25 year old from Columbus Ohio. I have about 20k saved up right now, but want to continue saving for a larger down payment for my first investment property, between 6-12 months from now. I also really like the look of Fundrise and utilizing that as an investment fund for myself. Do you think saving that 1k I want to put into fundrise is worth for a down payment or should I get some initial money in there to start the account growing? Thanks!

t3_ucnsc0

investing

Research on retail investors

I am conducting a research project for my high school class on how the stimulas checks have created in influx of retail investors and how it has affected the US economy compared to prior recessions. I am running a t - test to compare the 2020 recession to previous recessions (2008, 2000) and I was wondering if there is anywhere to get reliable data on the number of retail investors in the respected year?

t3_ucngxb

investing

Tiktok is Starting to Hit the Bottom lines of Google (Youtube) and Meta. Will this turn into potential existential threats?

A few months ago, I had asked about the impact of tiktok on the bottom lines of youtube and meta [in a post](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/rjsgql/can_tiktok_impact_the_bottom_lines_for_meta/). Given the last few earnings, it looks like tiktok is starting to have impacts on **both** meta and youtube. Given the decent miss in earnings in youtube it is fair to say they are feeling the heat (it may also be due to reopenings). However I think it's mostly due to tiktok. ​ [https://money.yahoo.com/video/tiktok-clearly-taking-share-youtube-205032494.html](https://money.yahoo.com/video/tiktok-clearly-taking-share-youtube-205032494.html) ​ Furthermore looking at the data provided by sensortower, shows alarming insights. ​ [https://go.sensortower.com/rs/351-RWH-315/images/Sensor-Tower-Q1-2022-Data-Digest.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0TOjzGP5P5qysEwVz3rNyDAkZN0-fQuhu3ND-yX58iPbYPlpWbfTgSkeE](https://go.sensortower.com/rs/351-RWH-315/images/Sensor-Tower-Q1-2022-Data-Digest.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0TOjzGP5P5qysEwVz3rNyDAkZN0-fQuhu3ND-yX58iPbYPlpWbfTgSkeE) [https://go.sensortower.com/rs/351-RWH-315/images/Sensor-Tower-Q4-2021-Data-Digest.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0TOjzGP5P5qysEwVz3rNyDAkZN0-fQuhu3ND-yX58iPbYPlpWbfTgSkeE](https://go.sensortower.com/rs/351-RWH-315/images/Sensor-Tower-Q4-2021-Data-Digest.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0TOjzGP5P5qysEwVz3rNyDAkZN0-fQuhu3ND-yX58iPbYPlpWbfTgSkeE) [https://go.sensortower.com/rs/351-RWH-315/images/Sensor-Tower-Q1-2021-Data-Digest.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0TOjzGP5P5qysEwVz3rNyDAkZN0-fQuhu3ND-yX58iPbYPlpWbfTgSkeE](https://go.sensortower.com/rs/351-RWH-315/images/Sensor-Tower-Q1-2021-Data-Digest.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0TOjzGP5P5qysEwVz3rNyDAkZN0-fQuhu3ND-yX58iPbYPlpWbfTgSkeE) ​ Youtube downloads are starting to decrease. Meta seems to be stagnant (mainly being carried from India which has tiktok ban). Meanwhile tiktok is increasing. Extrapolating the trend it shows that Tiktok could potentially pose existential threats to youtube and Meta. However I am not sure if there is a strong replacement for messaging which Meta still has a huge market share of.

t3_ucnbjq

investing

Alphabet Q1 earnings miss despite in-line revenue

already down 7%. LOL, tommorow is gonna be a blast. don't catch any falling knives. oh yeah, paypal, already down nearly 85% reports tommorow. The slightest miss and we're gonna have fun tommorow. Google's parent company Alphabet ([GOOG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG?p=GOOG&.tsrc=fin-srch), [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL)) reported first-quarter sales that were roughly in-line with estimates, with the tech giant showing resilience in its key search advertising and cloud businesses. However, earnings came in lower-than-expected as costs mounted, and growth in the tech behemoth's YouTube business slowed sharply compared to last year. Shares of Alphabet dropped more than 4.5% in late trading following the results. Here were the main metrics from Alphabet's report Tuesday afternoon, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

t3_ucmdx4

investing

Coinbase 8.7 PE ratio, how come it is such undervalued?

Basically the title, how come Coinbase, a software company, has such a low PE ratio? In the current overvalued market Coinbase seems to be dramatically undervalued. I get it, the whole Nasdaq is cooling down (almost 4% at the time of writing this post), but a lot of these companies have insane valuations and no profits. This seems not to be the case with Coinbase, yet its stock price is following the down trend. Why?

t3_uclytm

investing

Thesis, from Worth Charting: It's time to postpone all buying right now. Question: what are good defensive moves?

[This CNBC interview with Worth Charting's Carter Worth](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izo5Nh2AEB4) seemed especially solid to me. What do you guys think of the thesis that it's time to postpone all buying right now? Does this really mean it's best to be in cash right now despite inflation? What are good defensive alternatives? It's sounded like treasury bonds may be a good buy.

t3_uclr35

investing

Thoughts on Netflix as a short term opportunity?

Curious what you all think about Netflix. IMO it's a company primarily valued via sentiment, and I think that's reflected both in it's explosive rise and recent slide. That said, there may be a dead cat bounce, or maybe even a slow, steady recovery from the current position. They expect subscriptions to continue to drop, by a million accounts in the next quarter. But if nothing else, they're crafty when it comes to squeezing money out of existing customers. They even got me with their UHD/4k upgrade. They're going to be cracking down on sharing creds, but I think that'll be a wash in terms of impact on subscribers. The last time I saw a stock I though had some real chops drop this far, this fast, was when I was eyeballing Boeing at under 100 during the Covid fall out. Kicking myself for that one. What do you all think? I think what they're missing at this point is a staple - they don't have a Marvel, or a LOTR, or a GoT franchise to spin off of. Their original content is hit or miss, and they don't get blockbuster titles until they've been available via on demand streaming services for some time. In short, they seem to be fighting over table scraps. Does anyone else see an opportunity here? They're down 50% in the last month. Is there an upside? EDIT: This sub is a trip. 16 thousand views, zero upvotes (50% upvote rate). Didn't create it for either, but those two stats together are pretty funny.

t3_uci7je

investing

US ETFs for UK based investors

Hi all, Retail investor, technically from the UK (using Interactive Brokers UK). I've recently been looking at Divident ETFs & wanted some help finding the correct tickers: \*\*What are the UK tickers for VYM & SPHD? Preferably in USD but accessible by UK retail investors\*\* For example, VUAA is the "UK investor" version of the VOO (i think) And for future reference, how and where do I find out this information for myself on IB? New to the platform so not sure how to navigate this yet. Or better yet, on Google. thanks!

t3_uci2cf

investing

Best place to park money if equities are tanking but inflation is increasing?

Pretty straight forward. We are seeing SPY fall hard but currently diesel is parabolic indicating high inflation across all goods coming back with a vengeance (after last month showing inflation easing). Where is the best place to put your money in this situation?

t3_uchnfp

investing

Thoughts on the SVOL ETF?

This is an interesting ETF from Simplify and I'm curious to hear thoughts and critiques. It collects roll yield from the Vix curve giving a mid teens yield. Price moves inverse to vix with 1/4 exposure and has an options spread to cap extreme spikes. There is downside risk if you buy when VIX is low. But if VIX is historically high like today the risk reward seems better than bonds or stocks to scoop this up. This high yield is always suspicious, though, and I'm curious for other perspectives on what I might be missing. https://www.simplify.us/etfs/svol-simplify-volatility-premium-etf [https://www.simplify.us/case-study/high-income-yield-efficiently-harvesting-equity-volatility-premium](https://www.simplify.us/case-study/high-income-yield-efficiently-harvesting-equity-volatility-premium) [https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs/svol/dividend-history](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs/svol/dividend-history)

t3_ucfixz

investing

Is this twitter deal free money?

Hi Friends, I am looking at this twitter deal. Elon is buying all of the shares at 54.20 but right now the stock is trading around 50.20. That's around an 8% premium. Why shouldn't I put all of my portfolio into twitter until the sale and then move everything back to my normal portfolio??? Thanks ​ Also, I am struggling to find the closing date for this transaction. When are the shares being called?

t3_ucesl3

investing

Why not leverage SPY instead of individual stock pick for "risk"?

So much sentiment and data proves it's nearly impossible to beat the S&P500 with stock picking. So why not use 2x, 3x, and options as leverage as "risky" bets for a portfolio? Even doubling the S&P500's performance with a leveraged ETF at 10-15% of a portfolio seems like a better deal than picking an individual stock which could collapse just as easy as a leveraged ETF, but at least you have the S&P500's strong history of returns on your side.

t3_ucczgt

investing

Investing in TBF or TBX (shorting bonds)

Shorting bonds seems like an obvious play to me right now. With high inflation continuing, it seems obvious that the Fed will have to raise rates. Many people also suspect they may have to raise them more than they are currently forecasting. ETFs like TBF (short 20 year treasuries) and TBX (short 7-10 year treasuries) allow you to short government bonds. There are also leveraged versions at TBT and PST, respectively. I would love to hear counterarguments against these trades.

t3_ucbtt1

investing

Disney+ has the best potential of all the streaming services

Why? Because Disney has way better integration with the rest of their products and offerings. When Netflix makes a movie they get revenue only from the subscribers it can bring in. Meanwhile Disney+ has potentially: * Theatrical release (for movies) * Disney+ release * Merchanise sales * Disneyland parks sales * Games and other potential spin off media Disney also owns Hotstar and ESPN, so they stand to be much stronger when it comes to sports. How can Netflix ever compete with this? How can any streaming service compete with this? Apple TV is currently cheapest but it also seems to be sold at a loss to get market share. Even with all the free iPhone and Mac advertisement their shows generate, can they actually compete with Disney+ long term? Right now most people seem ok with having several services, but what happens when they are all 20+ USD/month and have more than enough content each? As I see it Netflix has replaced the cinema -> dvd model with something that makes far less money per project. They just started at a time when streaming licenses were cheap. Now they are starting to pay a large premium for their projects and its forcing them to constantly raise prices. Meanwhile Disney is already profitable without the streaming, Disney+ is almost free money for them. Meaning when the competition gets rough they can be far cheaper than anyone else. I would like to hear you guys opinions.

t3_uc8y70

investing

What was the most trendy no-brainer investment 30 years ago?

These days the popular go-to advice is "Just buy VOO." So what was the equivalent of that in the 1990's and 2000's respectively? What was the thing most educated investors recommended to people in general as the safest most reliable and yet also most potentially beneficial investment the way they refer to VOO today? Did those things turn out to be the obvious no-brainer outcomes that everyone assumed they would be?

t3_uc8niv

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 26, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_uc86o5

investing

Elon Musk has not become the new owner of Twitter

Aside from the fact that the SEC needs to approve the sale, shareholders have to approve the sale. Their AGM is in a month (assuming this gets included in the main AGM and they don’t have a special meeting/proxy). I’m not saying it isn’t likely, I’m saying there’s still a very legitimate possibility that this never goes through.

t3_uc72li

investing

Selling 2 shares of stocks from 2 tax lots in a single transactions - 1 share at a loss and 1 share at a gain

Let’s say you bought 1 share of $X @$50 and another share @60, and held them for more than 1 year. Then you sold both in a single transaction @$58, meaning at an overall gain of $6. Now a question for taxes: When you file taxes, would IRS think regard you as realizing: A) just a long term capital gain (+$6), or B) both a long term capital gain (+$8) and a long term capital loss (-$2) at the same time? This will be significant if these number are much bigger and you have many tax lots, which seem pretty typical if you DCA? Edit: Better wordings

t3_uc4pzu

investing

iBonds for UK citizens with a ITIN

I saw this video on iBonds and looked interesting: [https://youtu.be/san9EVb\_pKc?t=508](https://youtu.be/san9EVb_pKc?t=508) (timestamped) Can a UK citizen with a ITIN (which sometimes is substituted with a Social Security) purchase this? And is there a UK equivalent to iBonds? They look pretty good for this current climate, albeit based on my rather limited abilities to DD this myself.

t3_uc47ua

investing

What investments to make for the following scenarios?

I have had consistent success stock picking. Another one of my picks looks like it may be forced into a sale, and so the question becomes what to do with the extra cash? I have considered how my investments will do in many different environments. I think they will have a hard time in the following scenarios. 1. Deflation/low inflation recession with rising interest rates 2. Deflation/low inflation recession with falling interest rates 3. Deflation/low inflation recession with stable interest rates What businesses could do well in these scenarios? What investments could do well?

t3_uc47nx

investing

Does anyone have experience with Tribevest?

Supposedly the platform helps with some of the logistical issues. Formation, documents, the software they use and some other stuff. But does anyone have experience with it? Is it worth the money? It looks like it comes out to $350 a year which doesn't seem bad with member contributions. I run an LLC already but I thought of doing this as a different sort of venture. Basically I wanted to test this with a handful of trusted people, but I doubt the reviews on their website are real.

t3_uc248v

investing

5 questions related to I Bonds

1. I attempted to create an account but received an email saying “We are having difficulty verifying the information you provided when opening your account.” and want me to mail an authorization form to them and receive an account approval in 10-15 business days prior to me being eligible to purchase an I bond. Why so? Is there any way to work around this? 2. My spouse was able to open an account without issues and purchased one for $10,000. At this point, can my spouse gift me one for $5,000 prior to the month end (because my account is on hold)? MAking the total bonds purchased from her account = $15000 3. I should have purchased 10 x $1000 bonds. If I didn’t do that, and possess 1 x $10,000, must I sell the entire thing when the time comes? Or can I simply sell just $1000 worth at first and leave the remaining $9000 in the bond? And continue to sell in chunks as I please? 4. We have 2 kids - a 3 year old and a 1 year old. They both have SSNs. Can I purchase I Bonds using their SSN with an intent to sell the bonds in an year or two without tax issues? If this is OK, should we file taxes for my young kids after sale? Also, must we use the profits from the sale of their I Bond towards their benefit only? Like toys…?! 5. I have an EIN and an LLC. Must the funds for the bond come from the company’s business bank account or can I fund the bond with money from my personal bank account?

t3_uc1v5k

investing

Taxes - what do you do about tax withholding from your investment income?

I'm curious what people do with respect to taxes and their (after-tax) investments. for 2021, some mutual funds I have did pretty well (like the rest of the market), and paid out most of their dividends and capital gains in the last quarter. As a result, I got hit with a pretty big tax bill, and owed some penalties. As a result, I changed my W-4 to withhold an extra amount per paycheck. What are other people doing? Do you have the brokerage withhold taxes on any investment income? Make quarterly payments? Something else?

t3_uc1mf0

investing

What happens to shares when private company goes public?

I invested some money into a private company through netcapital. I assumed once the company has an ipo I would be able to freely trade as I would with a stock on robinhood or another brokerage. Does anyone know how it works when a private company on netcapital goes public? Thanks!

t3_ubx5nc

investing

do people invest in existing individual franchises?

I was looking into absentee franchise investments because I wanted another source of passive income besides stocks (of which the market is not doing well now). I got the idea because I live in a city and I know of food service places like Starbucks, dunkin, popeyes, etc, whose specific locations have been open for the past 10-15 yrs and remain wildly successful because they are in close proximity to hospitals, schools etc. And look like they will continue to be successful for years to come. I wanted to know if there was a way to invest in those existing specific locations without having to buy stock of the overall company or being involved in managing it. I thought that absentee franchise investing was how to do it but to my understanding , that involves you still having to open the franchise and find the workers. Any clarification is appreciated!

t3_ubwzce

investing

If I am a NEET can I consider my all my earnings as losses and don't pay taxes?

Lets say I started investing from 2020 I invested 2000 dollars Can I consider those 28 months as losses? Lets say minimum salary is 1000 dollars/month so I am in 28 000 dollars deficit since I didn't work for doing trading. And lets say in march I hit the jackpot and earned 30 000 dollars. So my deficit is 30 000 dollars and my earnings are 30 000 dollars, can I do that? Or do I have to pay taxes on the 28 000 dollars? To be honest the time I dedicated to trading I would have used it to look for a job yet I operated on loss doing trading until I hit the jackpot, can I do that so to don't pay taxes?

t3_ubw31z

investing

I have an EIN but I don't use it. Can I still buy another I-Bond for this month?

I bought an I bond and locked in the 7% rate as an Individual. I have an EIN but I don't use it. Can I still open up a Sole Proprietor entity account and lock in another 10k? It seems so good to be true but I'm worried if there's some legal catch or something lol

t3_ubuj2i

investing

(Honest) Why invest in crypto?

I keep hearing about crypto but I don't understand it so I'm asking for some help. So why do people invest in it? I know all investing is kind of like gambling but with stocks there's some tangible thing you get. Most stocks pay out dividends and in theory if a stock is undervalued then some very rich people will buy the stock because they want a partial ownership of the company itself which creates a scarcity that drives up prices. So there's something tangible there (ownership plus dividends) but with crypto I'm confused. What do you get? I hear people invest in it cause it's the "future currency of the world" but then wouldn't it be a bad investment because for a currency to function I'd have to stop all its volatility and become mostly stagnant like the us dollar. I also hear that people invest in it cause they are investing in the block chain technology but bitcoin isn't a company and they don't have any patents so how is it investing in the block chain? Is crypto just a pyramid scheme/gambling ring or am I missing something. Is it a worthy investment for someone a bit more risk adverse?

t3_ubuhjy

investing

When do you anticipate pulling the trigger on dumping cash back into the stock market?

Just want to start a discussion and hear different peoples perspectives, speculations and strategies. What is your current strategy? Buying in slowly on the way down? Trying to time the bottom and lump some cash you've been saving or maybe catch the upswing early enough? How long do you see this correction/recession lasting? Weeks? Months? What are you doing with cash in the meantime to help preserve its value?

t3_ubsq9m

investing

Elon Musk to Acquire Twitter

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/elon-musk-to-acquire-twitter-301532245.html > Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an entity wholly owned by Elon Musk, for $54.20 per share in cash in a transaction valued at approximately $44 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Twitter will become a privately held company. > Under the terms of the agreement, Twitter stockholders will receive $54.20 in cash for each share of Twitter common stock that they own upon closing of the proposed transaction. The purchase price represents a 38% premium to Twitter's closing stock price on April 1, 2022, which was the last trading day before Mr. Musk disclosed his approximately 9% stake in Twitter. The stock currently trades at $51.

t3_ubsnxd

investing

Life Insurance - Feedback

Hello, I am currently going through the process of considering if I need to opt into getting life insurance. I am at a cross roads on whether to consider term or Index Universal Life Insurance. One life insurance agent that I did reach out too did state that if I wasn't able to contribute $500 at a minimum per a month then an IUL plan would not be suitable if that minimum per a month cannot be met. Is that true? Otherwise, I would just consider a term life insurance plan that can allow a seamless conversion to an IUL plan later on. Would you advise against an IUL plan? I have heard that money is better suited elsewhere (ROTH IRA, 401k) because of the fee's within the plan & the plan could also be structured in such a way to maximize the agents commission. The life insurance agent that I spoke to through email mentioned to max out both my Roth IRA & Roth 401k before considering an IUL because they will have a greater upside. I am 27 by the way. I do have life insurance through my employer but I am not sure if they offer an IUL & or term life insurance that can be converted to an IUL later on. So, I will have to look into that. Any & all recommendations, comments & or suggestions are welcome. ​ Thanks.

t3_ubrkyt

investing

How do I compete with wholesale investors and “as-is” companies?

Title is self explanatory - I am an individual investor with enough cash to buy my first property at around $300k. But as I am getting started, I’m beginning to get intimidated by these TV commercials and signs etc everywhere for “we buy ugly houses” or “sell us your ugly house” etc. How can an individual even compete with these firms who have a team of cold callers and marketing?

t3_ubr3qk

investing

Municipal bonds: Why is nobody talking about this?

State and local gov'ts got tons of COVID money, so are they all in good shape? During the 94 cycle Orange County actually went bankrupt. I'd think as rates rise municipal bonds would take a beating and some of these gov'ts would get in trouble but I feel like I'm wrong because literally nobody seems to be talking about it.

t3_ubq9rn

investing

Where is the best place to park money during times of inflation, if you believe a bear market or crash is coming? Doesn't seem like any options?

It's well known and if anything we already see inflation taking place, groceries, gas, goods, prices all increasing. Typical rule is that cash isn't a great asset to own during inflation, since dollars will become worth less in terms of power. If we believe a housing crash is coming and the stock market has even more room to fall, where would the best place to put money then. Seems like cash isn't recommended, and housing nor stocks doesn't seem to make sense, from the perspective of someone who believes it's going to fall more. Doesn't seem like too many places left to put it, aside from niche assets, like art, trading cards, but speaking more from actual common assets, many can relate too, unless there's something I'm now missing? Edit: To maybe clarify, since I know some might totally misunderstand, this post isn't to say a crash is definitely coming, but more to just discuss some ideas of best moves, if someone believed it was coming. If someone believes they'll lose a game of sports betting, they'll prob sit still and not play, it doesn't mean if they did play, they'll lose the game, but more that since they don't believe it, they might as well move on to other avenues. In investing however, doing nothing would be holding cash, which apparently doesn't seem as advised either.

t3_ubpaf6

investing

All about Leafly / $LFLY 😊

*Note: This is incomplete and I'll try to continue to finish this throughout the week*. Hopefully we can have an in depth discussion about this company. 🤝 If anything, I hope this post can give some more information on the cannibis marketplace as well as potentially a stock to keep on the watchlist. To start, I want to say that I am long this stock and am bullish, primarily because I think there are just way too many potential catalysts to not be bullish a marijuana ancillary stock, especially since the sector has been beaten down. I prefer to be in an ancillary stock as they are exposed to less legal risk and currently operate in a less competitive market than the producer/dispensary market. With that said, I am also fully aware that my timing may be off, given the upcoming recession and higher costs of raising capital. But I believe marijuana legalization will continue, and at the end of the day, I’d rather be in a stock I like than try to time the market. **So let’s see what Leafly is all about**! 😊 # Quick Overview Everything I talk about here will be expanded upon as we walk through the DD. [Leafly](https://www.leafly.com/) basically is a cross between a wiki/media company and online marketplace for weed. It makes its money currently from two sources, **retailers and brands**. Retailers are basically dispensaries that list their store on the website (for a subscription fee) and hope local customers order from their store. Brands are basically companies that produce products related to weed, such as edibles, vapes, etc… Brands can list their products on the website as well (for a fee) and or pay for advertisements. Currently, Leafly does not make any money from ‘consumers’ which are people like you and I who go on the website to check out stuff and purchase products. The marketplace aspect is like Amazon, Uber Eats, Doordash, etc… a business that most are very familiar with. The wiki/media website you can think of as a news website or social media platform. And so as you can imagine, given the current methods of revenue, site traffic is very important for Leafly. # More About Leafly Leafly has been around since 2010 (operating a similar business model as today) but has had somewhat of a bumpy ride until now. In 2019 and 2020, due to poor leadership and management, the firm downsized its workforce by 50% and the current CEO, Yoko Miyashita, who has a legal background, took over. However, this turned out to be the turning point for the company! Looking at the comments on Glassdoor, Blind, and Indeed, it is clear that poor management was the root cause of the turmoil, and that those dark periods are over. For example, here is a [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedbiz/comments/ibtlnk/comment/g2s47fg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) on Reddit about Leafly from 2 years ago. >Leafly used to have some of the best, coolest, and most passionate people in the cannabis industry. Then they laid off anyone who voiced concerns over their atrocious mismanagement, refused to promote from within, hired a bunch of bumbling asshats to run the company into the ground. None of the execs ever knew anything about cannabis, let alone felt passion for legalization.Signed, a former passionate employee who once lived and breathed for that company. May they watch their empire crumble and burn. And now this is what they are [saying](https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Leafly-Reviews-E840667.htm?sort.sortType=RD&sort.ascending=false&filter.iso3Language=eng) on Glassdoor: >Tons of smart people here. I don't think I've ever been surrounded by as many talented people at one company before. Lots of autonomy in how to get the work done. Very little management blockage (if at all). Good work life balance - show up for your meetings and get your work done in the agreed amount of time and you can be on your own schedule for the most part. Really good at being remote - don't miss the office one bit It never gets old talking about weed (real topic - selling weed for cheaper) After downsizing in 2020, Leafly grew headcount by 70% in 2021 and are still looking to hire engineers and sales people today. Anyways, with Yoko at CEO (who’s passionate about weed), and once again with the desire to grow, in 2022, Leafly went [public](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220204005386/en/Leafly-and-Merida-Merger-Corp.-I-Announce-Closing-of-Business-Combination) via merger with a venture capital / private equity firm. As for whether or not the VC is looking for easy money or will remain invested for the long haul remains to be seen, at least it gives me a bit more confidence in Leafly as an investment. # Business As mentioned before, Leafly basically functions as a media site and marketplace. On the media side of things, Leafly provides consumers with information about the latest strains and products, news, and reviews. Leafly currently makes money from retailers and brands. * Retailers are the licensed storefronts and delivery services that sell cannabis products to consumers. Example of retailer listing: [https://www.leafly.com/dispensary-info/the-re-up](https://www.leafly.com/dispensary-info/the-re-up). * Brands are the licensed producers of cannabis products or accessories that are made available for sale to consumers. Example of brand listing: [https://www.leafly.com/brands/five/products/five-rosin-gummies-100-solventless-cbd-thc-hemp-extract-gummies](https://www.leafly.com/brands/five/products/five-rosin-gummies-100-solventless-cbd-thc-hemp-extract-gummies) Currently, a large portion of the revenue is subscription based, which is something you'd love to hear. According to their recent 10K filing, Leafly had roughly 10,500 retail listings on our platform, of which over 5,000 were paid. Additionally, Leafly had 9,500 brand listings on our platform, which they are in the process monetizing. Leafly believes there are currently 18,000 brands in the market, meaning that over 50% of the brands in existence are using Leafly. Leafly also claims that, approximately 53% of legal retailers in North America are paying subscribers on the Leafly platform. **In other words, Leafly has 50+% of all available brands and retailers using the platform**. Leafly offers different tiers of subscrption services and also allow brands/retailers the opportunity to purchase advertising add-ons, which would be things like advertisements and premium positioning on the website. Currently, Leafly's ARPA (average revenue per account) is around $636. The recently lowered some subscription fees to try to increase the number of retailers using the platform and increase market penetration, which makes sense for a growing company. **International Expansion**: Leafly’s content is available internationally, but the company does not have plans right now to expand outside of the United States and Canada. Other countries that have decriminalized medical marijuana include Germany, Australia, Mexico, and Jamaica. Strategic Initiatives Some of their 2022 goals include: * Hiring more engineers and sales people - this is one of their biggest impediment to growing right now. * Improving the bidding feature - basically allows retailers to easily bid for premium ad placement * Offer more features like menu merchandising (sponsored ads on retailer menus), delivery gateway * Consumer Personalization - basically recommend better products to consumers and offer a more personalized experience on the website * Making additional improvements to POS integrations to automate menus * Provide retailers with more and better data * Create a loyalty program for customers. # Valuation For the full year 2022, we are revising our revenue projections to between $53 million and $58 million representing 29% growth over 2021 at the midpoint **As a reminder, this guidance does not factor in any new markets that have not begun legalized sales, including the largest East Coast markets like New York and New Jersey that are in the process of setting up their adult use recreational markets. With the revised revenue projections, we’ve been very thoughtful of about our operating expenses.** # Competitors IMO, there really is only one other competitor that I would deem competitive enough and similar enough to be a competitor to Leafly, and that is Weedmaps. Sure Dutchie is probably the dominant provider of POS experience (think Shopify), Dutchie's marketplace is far from impressive and I doubt anyone actually goes to Dutchie to buy weed. And Leafly, as of today, is not involved in the POS business. Additionally, while there definitely are other websites that offer information on weed strains and products and/or are marketplaces, none of them (outside of Weedmaps) come close to Leafly in terms of depth, quality, number of reviews, and MAUs (Monthly Active Users). According to [similarweb](https://www.similarweb.com/website/leafly.com/competitors/) competitors such as Wikileaf and Allbud (who both offer information on strains) do not even come close to Leafly in terms of the number of visits and other site usage metrics. [Alexa](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/leafly.com#section_traffic) also shows a similar story, with Leafly ranked 9620, Weedmaps ranked 8,728. For reference, Hightimes is ranked 69,584, so no one else is close. **A common criticism of Leafly’s business model is that Google, Shopify, Instagram, Tiktok, Yelp, Doordash, Uber, Amazon, or etc... will eventually make Leafly obsolete**. While it is true that these other companies probably can do a better job than Leafly (i.e. Google is better for finding and reviewing dispensaries) at the end of the day, companies have a lot of legal hurdles and risks to deal with if they want to get into the marijuana business. It is my belief that, as long weed is not legalized Federally, the larger business like Doordash or Shopify will NOT enter the weed business. And because of this, as long as site traffic to Leafly is high, Leafly may be one of the few locations where brands can advertise their products. Leafly gets to take advantage of this current situation. Additionally, even today, you almost never see advertisements for alcohol or tobacco on popular social media platforms. Even Leafly itself can’t advertise on places like Gooogle, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Twitter today, which means retailers and brands probably can't either. There's reason to believe even if weed was legalized, the competition may still not be that stiff for Leafly. # Industry The legal cannabis industry is estimated to be $40 billion to $50 billion in sales by 2025, which is double the market size of 2020. By 2030, cannabis is estimated to grow to $70 billion with some estimates as high as $100 billion in sales. There are currently [18](https://www.statista.com/chart/6681/the-states-where-its-legal-to-smoke-marijuana/) states that allow for recreational use and 37 states that have medical marijuana laws. # Future Catalysts There are several future catalysts that could propel Leafly's stock price. **Federal Legalization**: This is the most obvious, the most well known, but also the least likely catalyst that will happen. I understand never say never, but I don’t think any of us will see Federal Legalization in our lifetimes. I won’t get into too much detail, but the two main reasons are politics and money. * **Politics**: While weed legalization is widely popular across the country, neither party wants to give the other a win, so we will never get enough votes. Unless a single party wins 60 Senate seats and their party controls the presidency, it won’t happen. * **Big Pharma**: Big pharma is slated to lose A LOT of [money](https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-04-20/marijuana-recreational-use-drugmakers-lobbying) if weed was legalized, so they will try their best to not make it happen. We saw during Covid how much power Big Pharma has and they will do anything for money. Just do a quick Google search on why Big Pharma is against legalized weed and you'll see. **But don’t fret, I actually think this is a blessing in disguise**. As long as weed is illegal on the Federal level, bigger companies such as Uber Eats, Google, Meta, Amazon, probably won’t enter the industry, giving Leafly room to operate. In fact, I’m so strongly opinionated about this that I would probably sell my Leafly holdings the day when weed is passed Federally as that basically opens the door for everyone to easily come into the business. **State Legalization**: This is the most likely catalyst that will help Leafly out. While Federally we won’t see legalization any time soon, individual states will continue to legalize it every year. Leafly, according to its analyst presentation is well positioned on the East Coast, and that is where the next slew of stated legalizations will occur. **Speed Of State Legalization**: This is slightly different from the above - this talks about how quickly a market can be developed after legalization. Believe it or not, once a state legalizes marijuana, there’s a long and drawn out process of licensing and what not, so it actually takes some time for a market to be developed. The longer we have to wait, the longer it’ll take for retailers to list on the website and for there be enough competition on the website for retailers to bid each other for premium spots. In fact, the reason Leafly downgraded their guidance in their Q4 call was because this pace was slower than expected for some states (like Illinois). If this pace speeds back up, it will be a positive catalyst. For example, In Illinois there are about 185 licenses tied up in litigation. If Illinois were to pick up the pace and New York and New Jersey get everything set up, it's only a matter of time before Leafly will raise their guidance. Leafly claims to have a strong foothold in Illinois and is ready to onboard the second the retailers get their licenses. Also in their Q4 call, they mentioned the 2022 guidance: >Does not factor in any new markets that have not begun legalized sales, including the largest East Coast markets like New York and New Jersey that are in the process of setting up their adult use recreational markets. # To Be Continued...

t3_ubme3b

investing

Small Cap Value is out performing the market, and out-performed the market in the 1970s.

Not financial advice, do your own DD. While no one can predict what the market will do, history shows that the market tends to rotate in and out of industries, asset classes, and domestic/foreign markets in regards to outperformance and underperformance. Currently, many are unsure of how to proceed in this investing environment after a decade of unprecedented growth and innovation that witnessed large cap tech industry stocks leap ahead the rest of the market. Now, however, with gas prices, inflation, and interest rate hikes have many likening this period to the 1970's, in which the US stock market underperformed (especially large cap growth). A mere .25% interest rate hike and the end of QE have been enough to cause the NASDAQ to correct by almost 20% - and more rate hikes are on the way. While I'm still personally bullish on tech long term when we eventually rebound, I am opening a position in Small Cap Value. I believe that should we really witness another market rotation and decade of underperformance such as the 1970s, that Small Cap Value will do well. In the 1970's it outperformed massively, and currently IJS, an ETF that tracks Small Cap Value stock index, is down -6.17% YTD. Not great, but so far is beating more conventional investments such as cash (-7.5 Jan and -7.9 Feb 2022) the NASDAQ (-18.99) and the US Market as a whole (-11.83%). When eventually we do recover, Small Cap Value historically as been an asset class that does best in "recovery environment" and "a young bull market" **TL;DR;** For me personally I believe now isn't the time to sell tech stocks at a loss, as Tech is still way forward. However, now is the time I'm opening a position in Small Cap Value to make money this next decade should my guess be correct that it will resemble the conditions of the 1970's.

t3_ubl1ru

investing

Twitter set to accept Musk's $43 bln offer - sources

From the article: > NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Twitter Inc (TWTR.N) is poised to agree a sale to Elon Musk for around $43 billion in cash, the price the chief executive of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has called his "best and final" offer for the social media company, people familiar with the matter said. > Twitter may announce the $54.20-per-share deal later on Monday once its board has met to recommend the transaction to Twitter shareholders, the sources said. It is always possible that the deal collapses at the last minute, the sources added. https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-twitter-set-accept-musks-best-final-offer-sources-2022-04-25/ This was a fast turnaround from their "poison pill", if true.

t3_ubkklq

investing

Comparable Merrill Lynch mutual funds similar to the VTSAX, VTIAX, & VTWAX without transaction fees?

I had to move my portfolio over to Merrill Lynch because my wife got a new job at BofA. Maybe I just need to get used to ML UI, but I don't like it compared to Charles Schwab at all. On top of that, I had to dump my CS proprietary mutual funds, and ML is charging a transaction fee for vanguard mutual funds. Do I have any alternatives non transaction fee for my Roth IRA?

t3_ubkc0v

investing

Finding mutual fund holdings data

I'm working on a research project and trying to find a dataset of mutual funds including their holdings (and the tickers of the holdings). Any ideas where I can find this dataset, preferably for free? :) I'll be sure to share the project on reddit after I finish building it, but this is a key piece of data! Thank you!

t3_ubj8cp

investing

Recession and tech stocks

All, Considering ongoing macro economic and geo political issues, which tech stock would you actually buy or consider buying in next days? Low cap + high growth stocks will be almost out of question. High interest rates and recession worries will put a strain on borrowing and high spend on customer acquisitions. Mid - high cap on B2C side will suffer as well. This will put strain on companies like Apple since people would delay upgrading their devices. Companies such as AMD, qualcomm, intel with significant B2C exposure will also suffer. Netflix is already getting hammered. Mid-high cap B2B. Relatively these companies should be in much better position. Companies are not going to stop using Microsoft products or discontinue the aws cloud or stop spending on Google advertisment. Sure, their growth rates will suffer but it's hard to think that their existing hold over market will be affected. I'm thinking of readjusting my portfolio and would appreciate your inputs. Generally, I'm a fan of the tech sector from a long term perspective and would still invest in it at current conditions. I would still stick to active investing rather than ETFs since i assume accrual returns on ETFs would also be much lower.

t3_ubi2qk

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 25, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_ubgork

investing

Do I smell 2008? Can the housing market really be so hot?

Hi All Been reading some posts about housing in the US. I'm based in Europe and we are seeing ridiculous housing prices. My house was just valued at a crazy amount and there seems to be nothing on the market. I'm in Slovakia which is bordering Ukraine so there is also an increased demand from Ukrainians who want to buy or rent l. I've been contacting real estate agencies for both rent and for sale. The arrogance is unbelievable. When I call, they simply reply an SMS with the prices and ask if I want it without even viewing. So, I took a look at bankruptcies in the EU and they are down! Interest rates are at about 1 - 1.5% here at the moment but I've seen they are creeping up. I'm sure, when there is a 2 or 3 percent increase, people will start defaulting. We are thinking to sell our house and just rent for a few years because this feels like a bubble. We will keep watching the market and try to buy land, or maybe a mixed bag of properties. Now, I know we can't really predict the market but could anyone suggest some indicators I could check? How do you make decisions regarding real estate investments? Edit: Just to be clear, when I say 2008, I mean just housing crashing part. I have quite a good understanding of the 2008 financial crash, and it is understood that the reason for the next crash is very unlikely to be for any of those reasons, I mean more in regards the outcome of such a crash - houses being sold a fire sale prices, defaults.etc.

t3_ubdrs4

investing

U.S. stock futures sink, suggesting more possible losses Monday

Hope conditions improve when the earnings coming out. *Wall Street is bracing for a busy earnings week, with quarterly reports due from* [*Apple Inc.*](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-gave-investors-more-than-100-billion-last-year-how-much-more-is-coming-11650654829?mod=home-page&mod=article_inline) *Facebook parent* [*Meta Platforms Inc.*](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebooks-meh-year-could-get-better-it-just-isnt-11650656197?mod=home-page&mod=article_inline) *Google parent* [*Alphabet Inc.*](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amid-a-storm-in-tech-sector-google-is-staying-relatively-dry-and-happy-11650658503?mod=home-page&mod=article_inline) *Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. among others. Investors will also keep an eye on Twitter Inc. which reports earnings Thursday and on Sunday* [*was reported to be re-evaluating Elon Musk’s takeover bid*](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/twitter-taking-a-second-look-at-elon-musks-takeover-offer-11650830958?mod=home-page&mod=article_inline)*.* *On Friday, the Dow shed about 981 points, or 2.8%, marking* [*its worst daily percentage drop since Oct. 28, 2020*](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-drop-and-bond-yields-climb-following-hawkish-comments-by-feds-powell-11650622790?mod=home-page&mod=article_inline)*, according to Dow Jones Market data. The S&P 500 index  slid 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index  tumbled 2.6%.* *For the week, the Dow was down 1.9%, the S&P 500 fell 2.8% and the Nasdaq dropped 3.8%, according to FactSet.* *Fed Chairman Jerome Powell added to the worries of jittery investors Thursday by* [*signaling support for a larger, 50-basis-point rate hike*](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-backs-moving-more-quickly-on-interest-rate-hikes-11650562888?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline) *at the Fed’s May meeting.*

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investing

The Fed Wants to Raise Rates Quickly, but May Not Know Where to Stop

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-wants-to-raise-rates-quickly-but-may-not-know-where-to-stop-11650792603?mod=hp_lead_pos5 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is shifting monetary tightening into a higher gear. His goal sounds straightforward—lift interest rates to “neutral,” a setting that neither spurs nor slows growth. But there’s a catch: Even in normal times, no one knows where this theoretical level is. And these aren’t normal times. There are good reasons to think the ground beneath the central bank’s feet is shifting and that, after accounting for elevated inflation, neutral may be higher than officials’ recent estimates. At their meeting next month, officials are set to approve plans to shrink their $9 trillion asset portfolio and to raise their benchmark rate by a half percentage point. They are poised to follow with another half-point in June. “We’re going to be raising rates and getting expeditiously to levels that are more neutral, and then that are actually tightening policy if that turns out to be appropriate, once we get there,” Mr. Powell said during a panel discussion last week. --- My point in posting this is specifically their "Price Pressures" chart depicting inflation. It's a pretty significant spike. You can see in that chart that from 1970-1982, when the Fed last had to fight significant inflation, there were more recessions in those twelve years than in the forty that followed, 1982-2022. A lot of people have noted that every cycle seems to involve the Fed allowing for easier and easier money, and this article puts it all together...the Fed could do this, indeed you can argue the Fed did the right thing doing this, because inflation was contained. That is no longer the case. This new state of affairs likely presages an aggressive rate hiking campaign that will not be like anything we've seen during the extended bull market of 1982-present day. TLDR: 1) Easy money is over, 2) Don't fight the Fed. This is what Warren Buffett refers to as the tide going out, and it looks to be going out in a big way. Likely growth stocks with marginal to negative earnings will continue to get hit the hardest.

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investing

How to not lose money, from wars/major conflicts

Hey everyone, first post I am a tech investor-growth investor. I believe firmly an event/conflict to happen, that will increase the chip-plastics-metal manufacturing-labor market shortage significantly. If I believe this event to happen in 2 years, how should I prepare my portfolio now to make out as + as possible at that time? I have heard shorting the countries ETFs might be a good option, diversifying into raw materials at countries not involved in the conflict. Please let me know your thoughts. I’m a bit old timey with my investment strategies, but I’m willing to commit to learning some more in effort to avoid taking a hypothetical huge hit.

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investing

are we on pace to have a decade like the 1970s in the market?

There were 4 years in which the dow was in red with the highest being -27% in 1974 and the lowest being -3% in 1978. Overall, not a great year for the markets. Obviously, this year is probably lost with inflation fears and the war in ukraine. what r your thoughts about this decade being similar to the 1970s? 1978 -3 1977 -17 1974 -27 1973 -16

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investing

Understanding Vanguards Margin .. my holdings turned into two holdings

Hello guys, I made my brokerage account to a margin account, and alot of my holdings have now been split into the stock name + stock name (cash). Like for example VTSAX, and VTSAX(Cash), AMD, AMD (Cash)...why is this? I don't anticipate using margin any time soon but just wanted it avaliable... so basically if I only use whatever I deposit into my settlement fund, vanguard wont charge me any interest just because I have a margin account right? For example if I have 10k in my settlement fund, and I buy assets < 10k in value, I wont be charged any interest, correct? Only if I go >10K. Thanks

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investing

Need Opinion on the current situation

Hello all, I have been reading some articles and would like to understand some aspects better. Please correct me for wherever I might be wrong. Recently US Fed Reserve stated that they will stop buying MBS (mortgage backed securities) which in my mind means will stop buying debt from the market. They, also have increased and will increase the rates to borrow and essentially make it costly to borrow. So, my question is who in this time would fill the gap that Fed was, by buying the excess MBS and Treasuries Bonds as they are now not having cheap access to money. Please feel free to correct any conclusions and theories of mine.

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investing

Who makes the decision to dilute company shares?

Hi everyone, I was recently reading about the dangers of share dilution. However, there is a fundamental question I couldn't find an answer to anywhere. When a company dilutes its shares by offering more to the market, who is the decision-maker? Do shareholders vote on it? Do all of them vote on it or just some of them? Or is it a decision from management? If so, who in management? If someone has some real-life examples or stories of this, that would be much appreciated. In particular, I'd like to learn how it affected you as an investor. What are some things a shareholder can do to mitigate the risks of share dilution? Do shareholders have foreknowledge of a company's intent on issuing more shares? If so, can't one be "blindsided" by a sudden decrease in one's share value? Another thing I was wondering is does any of this differ in the early stage of a company vs later on? For instance, if an angel investor invests in a company for 50%, does he get decision-making power in terms of whether the company stock is diluted? What about if someone (theoretically) owns 50% of the stock of a public company. Is it the same thing? My apologies if any of this reaks of ignorance. I am new to this whole thing and the amount of technical terms, legalities and information is a little overwhelming. I feel like I need to take a course to even understand the basics of how the financial and investment worlds work. Any resources would be greatly appreciated.

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investing

Starting an online business. Need advice.

I'm planning on starting an online business where I assist smaller/medium sized businesses with certain tasks. Such as creating a website for them, SEO, and so on. Basically anything to get them into the digital landscape. However, I'm having issues with two questions: 1) What kind of small/medium sized businesses can I look into? That is, what niche are mature and needs to be in the digital landscape to further reap profits? 2) What kind of services can I provide to these aforementioned businesses? I'm not looking for anyone to provide me an exhaustive list, but perhaps link me to an article or help me get started with my research? So far from my research, website design/creation, SEO, ads, etc. are something that would solve many problems for many offline firms. Thankful for feedback!

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investing

Retirement income minimum amount

There was a post on here or r/stocks or somewhere not too long ago and it was someone asking about dividend stocks and in it he said he needed \*k dollars per year in retirement. It was a low enough number by American standards but I figured from the post that the person was not in the US. Now he got a lot of slack about the number, people telling him he didn't know what he was talking about and he hadn't factored in x,y and z. I had been meaning to write a post asking what people think they need as a min in their part of the world. Obviously cost of living in NYC is not the same as Thailand. Also interested in people work it out.... This is the way I would do it. I find my cost of living as of now being a middle-aged man with a small family and being the only income. I take my wages and subtract my mortgage and what I put towards savings/stocks per year (obviously in retirement I will no longer save and my mortgage will be finished). I end up with 25K, we have two cars so I take a couple of K away for the second car, let's say 23k. Take away the taxes I pay and it's more like 15k. Where I live there's a state pension of about 12k. Myself and my wife will both get this so that's 24k tax free. So I already live on less than the state pension and even if everything goes to shit and pensions got halved then I could still get by with very little savings. ​ Now I know there will be people thinking 'what about contingencies', 'what if you or your family get sick and face huge hospital bills' what about when you get alzheimers and have to pay for a care home' The MINUMUM I am talking about does not include things that may not happen, that is the idea of this post....to ask what the minimum is to have a comfortable life, food on the table, roof above your head, etc. So what's your figure per year? ​ Btw the amounts above are euro. EDIT: Thanks to the people who gave a figure, it was interesting to see that US retirement figures seem to be way above what people in European countries might need, medical insurance/costs seems to be one of the biggest factors that causes people concern. In Ireland I would struggle to find anyone amongst my peers that has expenses of 100k+ per year, maybe if you had 3 or more kids in University...? Anyway thanks for the replies and it was an interesting eye opener for me...happy investing

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investing

I bought 75k worth of stocks on Friday at Close

I spent 30k on tesla and 20k on SPY, and 25k on Apple at the end of the day today for a long term hold, how do you think i will do? Any changes? I feel like i should have waited for some of their earnings next week but i saw this dip the last couple days in the market and had to capitalize on it. I have another 25k on the side to buy any dips if things continue to drop, and will be continually adding between $500-1000 a week on these positions for the foreseeable future. This is now my whole portfolio.

t3_ub1ylo

investing

How to know in advance whether a foreign company pays qualified dividends?

From Investopeida ([link](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qualifieddividend.asp)): "*A foreign corporation qualifies for the special tax treatment if it meets one of the following three conditions: the company is incorporated in a U.S. possession, the corporation is eligible for the benefits of a* [*comprehensive income*](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/comprehensiveincome.asp) [*tax treaty*](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/taxtreaty.asp) *with the United States, or the stock is readily tradable on an established securities market in the United States. A foreign corporation is not qualified if it is considered a* [*passive foreign investment company*](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pfic.asp)*.*" I don't know where to even start to look this information up for the stocks I'm interested in. Specifically talking about China Petroleum and Chemical (SNP), but in general, how can I figure this out?

t3_ub0vrh

investing

Honest question about liquidity

Hi! I've been searching everywhere for an answer but haven't found one yet so I thought maybe someone here might be able to help me. Does anyone know how to measure the liquidity of a company per day? (i.e compaies with a Liquidity per day > 250,000). I'm familiar with other liquidity ratios but couldn't find anything about this one in particular. If someone could help me I'd really appreciate it. Cheers!

t3_uazwu2

investing

Does anyone else remember Motley Fool's "Ready-Made Millionaire"?

Perhaps 15 years ago, MF promoted an investing scheme called "Ready-Made Millionaire" what they made sound like an investment opportunity of a lifetime. Now in 2022, I can't find a mention of it anywhere on the internet. Does anyone else remember this, and if so what happened to it? EDIT: This person found mention of it! https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/uazg01/does_anyone_else_remember_motley_fools_readymade/i61mzo6?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

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